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Civil Disorder and the Welfare Explosion: A Two-Step Process Author(s): Sanford F. Schram and J. Patrick Turbett Source: American Sociological Review, Vol. 48, No. 3 (Jun., 1983), pp. 408-414 Published by: American Sociological Association Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2095232 Accessed: 19/05/2009 15:36 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp. JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use. Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at http://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=asa. Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printed page of such transmission. JSTOR is a not-for-profit organization founded in 1995 to build trusted digital archives for scholarship. We work with the scholarly community to preserve their work and the materials they rely upon, and to build a common research platform that promotes the discovery and use of these resources. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. American Sociological Association is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to American Sociological Review. http://www.jstor.org RESEARCH NOTES CIVIL DISORDER AND THE WELFARE EXPLOSION: A TWO-STEP PROCESS* SANFORD F. SCHRAM J. PATRICK TURBETT State University College at Potsdam Upon not finding a direct relationship between civil disorder and welfare growth in American cities in the late 1960s, some analysts have rejected the Piven and Cloward (1971) thesis that the expansion of welfare in the late 1960s operated largely as aform of social control so as to recreate political stability. We hypothesize that the welfare explosion in the late 1960s was in part the result of a two-step process in which civil disorder impelled the national government to enact liberalizations of welfare policy which in turn were most actively implemented by those states most wracked by rioting. Analysis of the relative state growth rates in the number offamilies receiving Aid to Families with Dependent Children suggests the plausibility of our hypothesis and the Piven and Cloward thesis. Piven and Cloward's(1971) thesis on the role of welfare in westerncapitalistsocieties lies at the centerof the debateover the welfareexplosion of the late 1960s and early 1970s in the United States. Accordingto Piven and Cloward, the historical role of public-welfare has been one of cyclical expansionand contraction in responseto the alternatingneeds of the state for political stability and acceptance of lowwage work by the poor. Duringtimes of political stability,public welfareprimarilyfunctions to enforce on the poor the work norm of selfsufficiencyby restrictingaccess to aid. During periods of unrest among the poor, public welfare functions largely to promotepolitical stabilityby easing the poor's access to aid. In the 1960s the growing political unrest of poor blacks escalated into over 160 majorriots between 1965and 1968(Feagin and Hahn, 1973) and promptedthe dramaticrise in welfare recipientsin the late 1960sand early 1970s(Piven and Cloward, 1971:222-47). Variousresearchershave providedempirical supportfor the relationshipbetween civil disorder and welfare growth in the late 1960s (Betz, 1974; Jennings, 1979; Isaac and Kelly, 1981).Critics,however, have rejectedthis thesis upon finding no relationshipbetween riottorn cities and increases in welfare (Durman, 1973; Albritton, 1979). Our analysis seeks to resolve these conflictingfindings. We provide evidence supportiveof the hypothesis that the welfare explosion was in part the result of a two-step process in which civil disorderin the late 1960simpelledthe nationalgovernmentto enact liberalizationsof welfarepolicy which in turn were most actively implementedby those states most wracked by rioting. A TWO-STEPPROCESS From one perspective, the relationship between civil disorder and welfare growth was indirect rather than direct. Frequent and intense rioting in certain cities contributedto nationalchanges in welfarepolicy which led to welfaregrowthin all cities (PivenandCloward, 1979:1012;Isaac and Kelly, 1981:1259).We augment this perspective with the possibility that the states most wracked by rioting most actively implemented these changes. Therefore, we suggest that the relationshipbetween civil disorderand welfare growth was both direct and indirect. For several reasons, we focus our analysis on the growth in the number of families receiving Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC). Duringthe 1960s, this program had the broadest coverage and was the most expensive of all programs,for the poor. It was also the welfareprogrammost stronglyassociated with the poor, blackunderclasswhichwas implicatedin the disorderof the 1960s(Albritton, 1983).For both the nationaland state gov.ernments, the structure of AFDC made it convenient as a means of quelling disorder. Since its inceptionAFDC has been a national*Directall correspondenceto: SanfordF. Schram state programfor which the national governand J. PatrickTurbett,Departmentof Political Sci- ment sets basic guidelinesand providesat least ence, State UniversityCollege,Potsdam,NY 13676. half of the funding. It representedan income 408 AmericanSociologicalReview 1983, Vol. 48 (June:408-414) CIVIL DISORDER AND THE WELFARE EXPLOSION transfer programwhich was both relevant to the populationassociated with the riotingand at the disposal of the national government. This was not the case with the other income transferprogramof relevance to poor blacks, GeneralAssistance (GA), which is exclusively financed and administered by states. Also, states had the incentive of havingthe national governmentpay for at least half of the welfare growthwhen it occurredunderAFDC. In fact, in the early 1960s, northern states quickly sought to save money by shiftingGA families to AFDC under the AFDC-UP (Unemployed Parent)option, which was established by the nationalgovernmentin 1961(Piven and Cloward,1971:184-89).This type of shiftingof welfarerecipientsprobablycontinuedas states sought to have the nationalgovernmentshoulder as muchof the burdenof welfaregrowthas possible. The structureof AFDC enabledstates rather thancities to play a pivotal role in the two-step response by governmentto the disorder.The nationalgovernment'sability to liberalizethe poor's access to welfare was contingentupon how state governments implementednational changes. Historically, states have had substantial latitude in implementingAFDC (Albritton, 1983). While states did vary their responses, the nationalchanges in AFDC in the late 1960swere broadrevisions in policy which requiredeach state to implementthem evenly throughout its jurisdiction (Patterson, 1981: 27-36). Such changes limited the extent to which localities could vary their responses. Of course in the 35 states where local governmentsdid not at this time participatein the administrationof AFDC, local discretion was probablyeven more limited. The specific national changes in AFDC in the late 1960slend support to this argument. Much of the national government's actions came by 1969-the year followingthe periodof frequentand intense riotingby poor blacks in many Americancities (1965- 1968).In the year that followed, the national AFDC rolls increased an unprecedented36 percent as comparedto 17percentfor the entire decade of the 1950s(Rodgers, 1979:93).By 1969, the Social Security Amendmentsof 1967,along with new regulationsfor 1969, went into effect so as to liberalizethe workingpoor's access to welfare (Steiner, 1971). By 1969, the legal rights services of the nationalgovernment'sEconomic OpportunityAct were having an impact. This push for legal services for the poor culminated in the landmark welfare case Shapiro v. Thompson (1969). In this case, the United States SupremeCourtabolished the residency requirementsmany states had for determining eligibilityfor welfare and made large pools of 409 previously ineligible, newly arrived poor automaticallyeligible for welfare. By early 1970, the Courtruledin Goldbergv. Kelly (1970)that poor people could not be denied or terminated from welfare without "due process" and welfare agencies were prodded into being more careful than in the past as to whom they kept off the rolls. In 1969, a series of additional revisions to the AFDC programexpanded its coverage to various groups of poor persons, includingolder children. Although several of these national policy changes began before 1969, most, if not all of them, were not pushed by the national government until the rioting had already peaked. All of these changes represented broad revisions in policy which requiredeach stat&to implement them evenly throughoutits jurisdiction. Therefore, it is reasonableto suggest that the national government liberalized AFDC in response to the riots and once it did so, riot-tornstates actively implementedthese general policy changes throughouttheirjurisdictions. Althoughthere may have been a relationship between civil disorderand other social welfare programs,in most instances this was not the case, and in other instances the relationshipis difficultto document.Manyof these programs, such as UnemploymentCompensation,were not of direct relevanceto the poor blackunderclass. Other programs, such as Medicaid, which were relevant to this population, were new, therebycreatingthe possibilityof mistakenly attributinggrowth rates common to new programsto the disorderof the 1960s. Finally, otherrelevantprograms,such as Food Stamps, were to be fundamentallytransformedand expanded in coverage duringthe late 1960sand early 1970s, thereby making study of the relationshipbetween their growth and civil disorder impossible (Rodgers, 1979:82-117). In sum, government'sresponse to the civil disorder of the 1960smay have been in part, but not exclusively, a two-step process of the national governmentliberalizingAFDC and the states most wracked by rioting most actively implementingthose changes. THE NEED THESIS The welfareexplosion cannot be explainedby the major alternative thesis that welfare expandedto meet increasingneeds.' Poor blacks who migratedout of the south to the north I Gr0nbjerg(1977) argues that the welfareexplosion was largelyattributableto an increasinglyliberal commitmentby our society to accordingwelfare to all who needed it. For a critiqueof this perspective, see Schramand Turbett(1983). 410 increasinglyfound unemploymentand a need for welfare (Beardwood, 1968; Patterson, 1981). This process, however, began after WorldWarII, and sharpincreases in the welfare rolls were not registered until the latter half of the 1960s (Piven-and Cloward,,1971). Nor can the dramaticgrowth in the rolls be explainedby increases in poor black, femaleheaded families accompanyingthe black migration to northern cities (Moynihan, 1965). Between 1960 and 1972, the proportion of nonwhite families headed by single females rose from slightly one-fifth to one-third(Levitan et al., 1975:114). Yet, if all the new female-headedfamilies in the period between 1959and 1966had received welfare, this would only account for about ten percent of the increase in the AFDC programduringthe same period (Lurie, 1968). In any case, the idea that increases in poor blackfemale-headedfamilies translatedirectly into increases in the AFDC rolls is fundamentally misleading, for it assumes that eligible poor families automaticallyapply and get accepted for AFDC. This hardly was and still is not the case, althoughapplicationrates of poor people for AFDC increased in the late 1960s and early 1970s (Doolittle et al., 1977). In the early and mid-1960s,only about one-halfof all eligible poor families were receiving AFDC (Piven and Cloward, 1971:186).Welfareagencies now as then avoid publicizing the availability of AFDC and invoke a series of practices from fraud investigations to long waitingperiodsin orderto keep the rolls down. An expanded pool of poor families eligible for AFDC created only thepotential for increases in the AFDC rolls. Yet, it was not largeenough to create the welfareexplosion and was insufficient by itself in doing so. AMERICAN SOCIOLOGICALREVIEW for which Cronbach's Alpha was .90.3 With this index we can more effectively assess the extent to which states were wrackedby rioting than if we were to rely simplyon the numberof riots states suffered. Our measuresof need include the percent of families poor and femaleheaded, the percent unemployed, the percent residingin central cities, and the net black inmigrationbetween 1960and 1970. We also include measures of the state's capacity to finance welfaregrowth:medianincome and per capita revenue.4 Interparty competition as measuredfrom 1956to 1970(Ranney, 1971)is includedto account for the tendency of political parties in competitive states to pursue liberal welfarepolicies in a quest- for votes (Dawson and Robinson, 1963).5 Welfare growth from 1960-1964 is includedto account for the possibility of postriot welfare growth being a continuationof welfare growth duringthe period precedingthe intense rioting. And lastly, we include the average annualcommunityaction expendituresper poor person in the state for 1965-1969to assess the extent to which the efforts of communityaction programsmay ac- 3Our index of the severity of riotingis the summationof the standardizedz-scores for the number of civilians killed and injured, the number of law officerskilledandinjured,the numberof arrests,and the numberof arsons duringthe riots between 1965 and 1968for each state. Isaac and Kelly (1981) include durationin their index of riot severity; however, the length of time of any riot is not a good indicatorof riot severity in that many riots had long periods of inactivitybetween violent incidents (see National Advisory Commissionon Civil Disorders, 1968:589-631). 4All data except that on rioting come from the Statistical Abstract (1960-1973). Except for net black in-migration,all need and capacity indicators are averaged. Unemploymentis averagedfor 1960, DATA ANALYSIS 1965,and 1970,and the others are averagedfor 1960 Ourdataanalysisemploys a series of measures and 1970. 5 Our measureof interpartycompetitionis based in order to test for the two-step thesis while takinginto accountotherfactors, such as need, on Austin Ranney's(1971) scale for party competiin AmericanStates. Ranney'sscale is based on which may have promoted AFDC growth in tion datafor 1956to 1970for all states and includesmeathe states. We used data on the frequencyand suresfor each state of: (1) the state senate seats held intensity of rioting in the states between 1965 by the Democrats; (2) the average percentage of and 1968-the periodof most intense riotingin popularvotes won by DemocraticgubernatorialcanAmerican cities in the 1960s (United States didates;and (3) the percentageof all terms for govSenate, 1968).2Fromthese data we constructed ernor,senate, andhouse in whichthe Democratshad a standardizedriot severity score for each state control.To calculatethe scale, Ranneyaddedthese 3 measures-together and divided by 3. This yields a score for each state rangingfrom .0000 to 1.0000 2 We recognizethat there was sporadicriotingby (representingtotal Democraticsuccess), with .5000 the poor precedingand followingthe 1965-1968pe- representing balanced two-party competition. To riod. Yet, 1965-1968was undoubtedlythe periodof convert Ranney's scale to one in which balanced most intense riotingby the poor and therefore,our competitionwas on one end of the scale, we subdatashouldbe representativeof the extent to which tracted the Ranney score for each state from .5000 states were wrackedby riotingin the 1960s. and took the absolute value. CIVIL DISORDER AND THE WELFARE EXPLOSION 411 Table 1. Factors Affecting AFDC Roll Growth 1969-1972for the 50 AmericanStatesa Severity of Rioting MedianIncome CAP Expenditures Black Migration InterpartyCompetition % CentralCity AFDC Growth, 1960-1964 % Unemployed Per CapitaReyenue % Poor Female-headedFamilies Increases in AFDC Families per 1000 Poor Families 1969-1970 1969-1972 b Beta b Beta .09 '.14 .54* .38* .0002 .38* .0006 .48* -.0004 -3.3 .0002 .18 -.24 14.1 .001 7.12 -.04 -.13 .002 -9.5 .06 -.17 .33* .04 -.11 .19 .10 .16 .0001 2.36 -.22 .96 -.004 -11.69 .08 .28 -.05 .01 -.17 -.13 .30* .44* .10 .0006 R2=.73 # of Riots MedianIncome CAP Expenditures Black Migration InterpartyCompetition % CentralCity R2=.52 .044 .0002 - .0008 - .06 .0013 -1.83 .0002 -.22 -.07 .29 -.05 -7.25 .00004 1.58 AFDC Growth, 1960-1964 -.054 % Unemployed Per CapitaRevenue % Poor Female-headedFamilies 20.51 .002 9.97 -.03 R2=.59 .28* .17 .22 .33* .49* .05 -.13 -.04 .18 -.17 -.04 13.3 - .0026 -11.2 - .11 .09 -.12 R2=.49 a All figures representthe result of simple multipleregression. * F is significantat .01 level. the increasein the numberof familiesreceiving AFDC per 1000poor families.7 Table 1 presents the results of multipleregression equations which assess the relative effects of each of the above independentfactors on welfare growth, controlling for the other independentvariables.The effects of severity and frequency of rioting were assessed in separateequationsbecause of their high intercorrelation(r = .80), therebymakingit difficult to distinguishtheir relative effects simultaneously. The standardizedregressioncoefficients for the severityof riotingindicateit to be the most importantpredictorof 1969-70AFDC roll.growth and the second only to medianincome for 1969-72 roll growth. The frequency of riotingis second only to medianincome as a predictorfor AFDC increases for both 19691970 and 1969-1972. Also of particular significanceis the fact that measures of need generallyare not importantfactors in explaining the variationin state welfaregrowthfor the periodsunderstudy. Differencesin the level of We recognizethatexpendituresare a crudemea- civil disorder are more important than dif- count for variations in state increases in the welfare rolls.6 We examine two time periods for assessing variation in our dependent variable-AFDC roll growth following the 1965-1968 period of intense rioting. We measure change in the AFDC rolls for both the first year (1969-1970) and the first three years (1969-1972) immediately following the riot period. As we have mentioned, 1969-1970 is the year of unprecedented AFDC growth; it is also the first full year after the most intense rioting by the poor in the 1960s and the first year after the national government took a series of dramatic steps to liberalize the poor's access to welfare. For these reasons, it merits our attention. We examine AFDC growth for 1969 to 1972 because it measures such growth from the time the national government liberalized access to AFDC in the wake of intense rioting until the AFDC rolls began to level off. We measure growth as 6 sure of effort by communityaction programsto increase services to the poor;however, no other measures are at our disposaland state communityaction ' We do not use the simplepercentincreasein the expendituresperpoorpersondo correlatewell in our state data (r = .52) with increasesfrom 1969to 1972 numberof familiesreceivingAFDC because percent in the numberof familiesreceivingAFDC per,1000 change measuressuch as this are heavily dependent on the base values. poor families. 412 ferences in need in explainingstate variations in AFDC roll increases after 1969. Severity appearsto be much more strongly associatedthan frequencyof riotingwith welfare growth for 1969- 1970; however, they seem to be equally associated with AFDC growth for 1969-1972. The data suggest that intense rioting had acute effects promoting dramatic welfare growth in riot-torn states once the nationalgovernment liberalizedaccess to AFDC in 1969. The frequency of rioting's effects on welfaregrowth was greaterfor 1969-1972 than in the year following the intense riot period. Nonetheless, the frequency of riotingseems to have been less of a factor thanriot severity in explainingwelfaregrowth. Replacingfrequencywith severity of riotingin the equations increases the total variance explained 14 percent for welfare growth 19691970and 3 percent for 1969-1972.8 The multiple regression results in Table 1, however, are insufficient by themselves to substantiatethe two-step hypothesis. For instance, should our multiple regression equationsproduce similarresults, indicatinga relationship between rioting and welfare growth for a period preceding 1969, then we could not conclude that riot-torn states were more likely than other states to increase their welfare rolls only after the national government had liberalizedAFDC in 1969. In other words, it may be that riot-tornstates tended to have higherwelfareincreases thanother states for reasons other than variationsin state reactions to nationalwelfare policy changes. Table 2 casts doubt on this possibility by indicating that variations of state welfare growth during the period of intense rioting (1965-1968) were unrelated to the frequency and intensity of rioting but were related to a numberof otherfactors.9The resultsin Table 2 lend some support to the idea that riot-torn states were likely to undergo welfare growth more so than other states only after the na- AMERICAN SOCIOLOGICALREVIEW Table 2. Factors Affecting AFDC Roll Growth, 1965-1968 for the 50 American Statesa Increases in AFDC Families per 1000 Poor Families 1965-1968 Severity of Rioting Median Income CAP Expenditures Black Migration Interparty Competition % Central City AFDC Growth, 1960-1964 % Unemployed Per Capita Revenue % Poor Femaleheaded Families b Beta .0073 -.00003 .0009 3.95 -.00006 -.33 .36 7.91 .006 .06 -.09 .11 .22 .17 -.12 .26* .16 .78* R2 = #of Riots Median Income CAP Expenditures Black Migration Interparty Competition % Central City AFDC Growth, 1960-1964 % Unemployed Per Capita Revenue % Poor Femaleheaded Families .35 10.29 .01 .00004 .0009 4.07 -.00007 -.39 .33 8.98 .006 .69 .11 -.10 .11 .23 -.18 -.14 .24* .19 .79* 9.83 .33 R2 = .69 a All figures represent the result of simple multiple regression. * F is significant at the .01 level. tional government liberalized welfare policy in 1969, after the period of intense rioting (and not before). Additional support for this two-step process can be gleaned from Table 3, which shows that the frequency and severity of rioting in a state in any one year were most often not good predictors of welfare growth the following year. 8 Isaacand Kelly (1981)foundin theirexamination Only the severity of rioting in 1965 was related of nationaldata that the frequency ratherthan the to welfare growth the following year, and this severityof riotingin the nation in any one year was relationship may be the product of the fact that the betterindicatorof nationalwelfaregrowthin the a small number of states (5) suffered a few intense riots in 1965, and these states tended to subsequentyear. 9 Comparingthe unstandardizedb's for AFDC be states which were undergoing above avergrowth1960-1964in Tables 1 and 2 revealsthat state age welfare growth at that time. Although we variationsin welfaregrowthfor 1%5-1%8were tied have evidence indicating that rioting in 1965 to variationsin growthfor 1%0-1964,but state vari- was directly related to welfare growth the folations in welfaregrowth after the rioting were not. lowing year, the data in Table 3 generally lend This shift suggests that somethingoccurredto alter the 1960-1%8patternof welfaregrowth.These data support to the idea that rioting was not directly buttressour argumentthat the states most wracked related to AFDC increases until after the naby rioting tended to have the largest AFDC roll tional government liberalized the program in growth only after the period of intense rioting and 1969. The relationships we found between the freonly after the national government liberalizedthe programin 1%9. quency and intensity of rioting and welfare CIVIL DISORDER AND- THE WELFARE EXPLOSION 413 Table 3. Correlationsand StandardizedRegressionCoefficientsfor Frequencyand Severity of Riotingin One Year and WelfareGrowththe Following Year for the 50 AmericanStatesa Frequencyof Rioting Severity of Rioting Increasesin AFDC Families in the Base Year in the Base Year per 1000 Poor Families Beta Simple r Beta Simple r 1965-1966 .05 .02 .48 .39* 1966-1967 .15 -.14 .21 -.11 1967-1968 .49 .01 .23 -.10 1968-1969 .01 .09 .07 -.05 a All Betas are the result of simple multipleregressionsin which the other variablesin the equations in additionto the severity or frequencyof riotingare the same as the ones reportedin Tables 1 and 2. * F is significantat the .01 level. growth for states most often do not hold for cities of 200,000or more in population.If we limit our analysis to cities. with populationsin 1965of 500,000or more, we do find a relationship between the severity of rioting in a city and welfaregrowth 1969-72 (r = .34). Beyond that, however, the links between rioting and welfaregrowthwhich we found for states were not present in cities. These data lend some supportto the idea that it was states, not cities, which had the fiscal capacity and authorityto vary their responses to rioting; and once the nationalgovernmentacted to liberalizeAFDC, riot-torn states implemented these changes more actively than others so as to ease the poor'saccess to welfare. Once a riot-tornstate so acted, the welfarerolls were apt to rise at an above-averagerate in both riot and nonriot cities in that state, thereby diminishingthe probabilitythat riot-torncities would tend to have higher welfare roll increases than other cities. (1979) failed to find a direct relationshipbetween civil disorder and welfare growth in cities, they took this as a refutationof Piven and Cloward'sthesis that welfarelargelyoperates as an agent of social control. The absence of a direct relationshipbetween civil disorder by the poor and welfare growth in American cities in the late 1960s does not refute this thesis. In the late 1960sand early 1970s, welfare may have performed a social-control function by responding to civil disorder through a two-step process of national liberalization of welfare policy and active implementation of such changes by riot-torn states. REFERENCES Albritton,Robert B. 1979 "Social amelioration through mass insurgency? A reexaminationof the Piven and Clowardthesis." The AmericanPolitical Science Review 73:1003-1011. 1983 "Subsidies: welfare and transportation." 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