Cuivre River - Missouri Association of Councils of Government
Transcription
Cuivre River - Missouri Association of Councils of Government
[CUIVRE RIVER ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE] May 18, 2012 Section 1: Introduction Cuivre River Electric Cooperative (CREC) was established in 1941 to provide electric service to the rural areas of northeast Missouri. A Touchstone Energy Cooperative, CREC is headquartered in Troy, Missouri, and provides service to customers in Lincoln, Pike, St. Charles, and Warren counties. The cooperative is run by a board of twelve directors which approve the company’s mission and internally developed business policy: “Cuivre River Electric Cooperative is dedicated to provide an adequate, reliable supply of electrical energy to all who desire it within the service area of the Cooperative at the lowest cost consistent with sound economical practices, efficient management, and concern for our environment.” The cooperative owns 5,255 miles of service line within these counties. Figure 1 depicts the geographic boundaries of the cooperative in relation to USGS local quadrangles within the state of Missouri. (Map sources: www.usgs.gov, Association of Missouri Electric Cooperatives, Cuivre River Electric Cooperative.) CREC is the largest of Missouri’s electric cooperatives. There are 58,500 member-consumers; 94% are homes and 6% are businesses and industries. Based on consumer records and U.S. Census data, Cuiver River serves: 24% of all St. Charles County homes; 68% of all Lincoln County homes; 65% of all Warren County homes; and 15% of all Pike County homes. Specific information regarding meters by county was not publicly available. | 15-1 May 18, 2012 [CUIVRE RIVER ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE] Population density for the cooperative service area is depicted in Figure 2 (Map source: U.S. Census 2010). 15-2 | [CUIVRE RIVER ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE] May 18, 2012 Section 2: Planning process Through a partnership between the Association of Missouri Electric Cooperatives and the Missouri Association of Councils of Government, the Boonslick Regional Planning Commission was contracted to facilitate a hazard mitigation planning process for CREC. The Boonslick Regional Planning Commission met with CREC’s representative at a regional kick-off meeting which was held on February 4, 2011. This informational meeting provided the basic responsibilities for each agency and allowed for initial discussion concerning the project timelines, data collection and other pertinent topics. CREC chose not to participate directly in the planning process. As a result, additional meetings to collect asset data, review existing and create new mitigation strategies, as well as prioritizing goals, objectives, and actions were not completed. Public Involvement Due to Cuivre River Electric Cooperative’s refusal to participate, public involvement was determined to be impossible as the chapter includes no mitigation planning. Section 3: Asset inventory Creation of a comprehensive asset inventory for Cuivre River Electric Cooperative requires direct participation from the cooperative. Without their participation, it is difficult to determine the extent and value of their physical infrastructure. No publicly accessible information related to cooperative assets was available to complete the asset inventory. Section 4: Identified Hazards and Risk Assessment Methodology Natural hazards in northeast Missouri vary dramatically with regard to intensity, frequency, and the scope of impact. Some hazards, like earthquakes, happen without warning and do not provide any opportunity to prepare for the threat. Other hazards, such as tornadoes, flooding, or severe winter storms, provide a period of warning which allows for public preparation prior to their occurrence. Regardless, hazard mitigation planning can lessen the negative of any natural disaster regardless of onset time. The following natural hazards have been identified as potential threats for the service region of the Cuivre River Electric Cooperative: Tornadoes Severe Thunderstorms, Hail, and High Winds Flood and Levee Failure Severe Winter Weather Earthquakes Dam Failure Wildfire Likewise, a number of hazards may be eliminated from consideration in their local plan due to the state’s geographic location including tsunamis, hurricanes, coastal storms, | 15-3 May 18, 2012 [CUIVRE RIVER ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE] volcanic activity, avalanche, and tropical storms. Additionally, a number of hazards may be eliminated specifically for CREC because of asset types and geographic location in the state of Missouri. Those hazards eliminated for the CREC service region include: Drought Heat Wave Severe land subsidence Landslides Although drought can potentially impact northeast Missouri, water availability does not directly impact the delivery of electric service to CREC customers. Similarly, heat wave has been eliminated. Though it may result in additional usage and potentially tax the system, heat waves do not usually cause infrastructure damage to cooperative assets. The results of a heat wave in the CREC service area may be considered cascading events rather than damage caused directly by the hazard itself. Land subsidence and landslides have also been eliminated based upon local soil structure categorization by the USGS. Limestone, carbonate rock, salt beds, and other naturally dissolving rock which are most susceptible to the formation of sinkholes do not form the basis of soil in the CREC service region. For the purpose of this risk assessment, the identified hazards for the CREC service area have been divided into two categories: historical and non-historical hazards. Historical Hazards are those hazards with a measurable previous impact upon the service area. Due to lack of direct participation from the electric cooperative and lack of public data, the data collected from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on the hazard events has been used for the analysis. Further, the specific events that reported damages of $1,000 or more within the CREC’s service area have been identified to calculate the probability of damagecausing hazard occurrence for the specific hazard. For CREC, hazards with historical data include tornadoes, severe thunderstorms/high wind/hail, flood and levee failure, severe winter weather, and wildfire. Non-historical Hazards are hazards with no previous record of impact upon the local service area. As such, the associated vulnerability assessments for each of these hazards will have an occurrence probability of less than 1% in any given year, but the extent of damage will vary considerably. For CREC, hazards without historical data include earthquakes and dam failure. Probability of Occurrence In determining the potential frequency of occurrences, a simple formula was used. For historical events, the number of recorded events for the service area was divided by the number of years of record. This number was then multiplied by 100 to provide a percentage. This formula was used to determine future probability for each hazard. For events that have not occurred, a probability of less than 1% was automatically assigned as the hazard cannot be excluded from the possibility of occurrence. Likewise, when 15-4 | [CUIVRE RIVER ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE] May 18, 2012 discussing the probable risk of each hazard based upon historical occurrences, the following scale was utilized: Less than 1% chance of an event occurrence in any given year. 1-10% chance of an event occurrence in any given year 10-99% chance of an event occurrence in any given year Near 100% chance of an event occurrence in any given year The number of occurrences was further refined to focus on damage-causing events. Those occasions which had reported damages were divided by the total number of recorded events to obtain a percentage of total storms which result in infrastructure damage. (Formula: Number of damage-causing events / total number of events = Percentage of occurrences which cause damage.) Potential Extent of Damage Vulnerability Assessment matrices for each hazard are included on the following pages. Because CREC did not participate and no hazard-specific data is publicly available, detailed loss estimates for each hazard affecting the cooperative’s service area are not available. When discussing the extent of potential damages for all hazards, the following scale was utilized: Less than 10% potential damages to total cooperative infrastructure 10-25% potential damages to total cooperative infrastructure 25-50% potential damages to total cooperative infrastructure More than 50% potential damages to total cooperative infrastructure Regardless of hazard categorization, the following matrix (Table 1.1) will be utilized to identify the potential damage extent and likelihood of occurrence for each natural hazard type. Without Cuivre River’s cooperation, the asset inventory could not be completed. As a result, the potential extent of damage cannot be determined without infrastructure data. In order to account for this insufficiency, a final row was added to the matrix which addresses the unknown amount of damage. | 15-5 May 18, 2012 [CUIVRE RIVER ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE] Table 1.1 Probability of Hazard Occurrence Sample Cuivre River Electric Cooperative Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: _____________ Less than 1% in any given year 1-10% chance in any given year 10- 99% chance in any given year Near 100% probability in any given year Potential Extent of Damage Less than 10% of damage to system 10-25% damage of system 26-50% damage of system More than 50% damage of system Unknown damage extent of In many instances, natural hazard events occur without causing significant damage to the cooperative’s infrastructure. The more significant impact of natural hazard episodes comes in the form of reported customer outages. The infrastructure may not be significantly harmed by an ice storm, but may result in prolonged and widespread outages in the cooperative’s service area. In considering the potential impact of a hazard, loss of function provides a more concise picture for comparison of events and geographic regions of the state. In addition to system damage, each hazard will be evaluated on the average number of reported or estimated outages per event occurrence. (Formula: Average number of outages reported / Total number of customers = Average percentage of outages reported per event) Without Cuivre River’s cooperation, outage information could not be completed. As a result, the potential extent of damage cannot be determined without infrastructure data. In order to account for this insufficiency, a final row was added to the matrix which addresses the unknown amount of damage. Due to the insufficiency of the data, the percentage values calculated for the probability of hazard occurrence are used for the probability of damage-causing hazard occurrence too. 15-6 | [CUIVRE RIVER ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE] May 18, 2012 Table 1.2 Potential Extent of Impact Sample Cuivre River Electric Cooperative Service Interruption Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: _____________ Less than 10% of customers report outages 10-25% of report outages customers 26-50% of report outages customers Probability of Damage-causing Hazard Occurrence Less than 1-10% chance 10- 99% > Near 100% 1% in any in any given chance in any probability in given year year given year any given year More than 50% of customers report outages Unknown Impact Extent of | 15-7 May 18, 2012 [CUIVRE RIVER ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE] Section 5: Risk Assessment A) Historical Hazards: Tornadoes From 1990-2010, Cuivre River Electric Cooperative’s service area within the state of Missouri has experienced a total of 35 tornadic events. The probability of a tornadic event is near 100% (35 events/ 20 years= 175%). However, there are 6 events that reported damages of $1,000 and more. Using the previously described methodology, the probability of a damage-causing tornadic event in the Cuivre River service area in any given year is 17% (6 events / 35 events = 17%) Estimated damages to cooperative infrastructure could not be compiled. Table 1.3 provides a summary of event dates and EF-scale ratings for the service area. Table 1.3 Date of event CREC Tornadic Event Summary EF Scale rating Reported damage $ value 08/03/1990 F1 $250,000 11/27/1990 F2 $25,000,000 04/13/1998 F0 $1,000 02/11/1999 F2 $300,000 04/10/2001 F1 $5,200,000 03/13/2006 F3 $2,500,000 Source: National Climatic Data Center, 2011 Based upon the last twenty years of historical event records, the average tornado to affect the cooperative will include an EF0, EF1, and EF2 rating. The damage caused by tornadoes could not be determined without cooperative records, nor could an average amount of damage per storm be calculated. In order to account for this insufficiency, a final row was added to the matrix which addresses the unknown amount of damage. Table 1.4 demonstrates the probability of occurrence in conjunction with the potential extent of damage. Figure 3 provides a pictorial representation of all recorded tornado touchdown sites and recorded path. (Data for map collected from NOAA). 15-8 | [CUIVRE RIVER ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE] May 18, 2012 Table 1.4 Probability of Hazard Occurrence Potential Extent of Damage Cuivre River Electric Cooperative Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Tornado Less than 1% in any given year 1-10% chance in any given year 10- 99% chance in any given year Near 100% probability in any given year Less than 10% of damage to system 10-25% damage of system 26-50% damage of system More than 50% damage of system Unknown extent of damage Of the 35 tornadic events, 6 reportedly caused damage throughout the counties in CREC’s service area. As with infrastructure damage estimates, outage information for tornadoes was not publically accessible. As a result, average outages per storm cannot be calculated. Table 1.5 demonstrates the probability of a damage-causing hazard occurrence in conjunction with the potent extent of impact upon local customers. Table 1.5 Potential Extent of Impact Cuivre River Electric Cooperative Service Interruption Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Tornado Less than 10% of customers report outages 10-25% of report outages customers 26-50% of report outages customers Probability of Damage-causing Hazard Occurrence Less than 1-10% chance 10- 99% Near 100% 1% in any in any given chance in any probability in given year year given year any given year More than 50% of customers report outages Unknown extent of impact | 15-9 May 18, 2012 [CUIVRE RIVER ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE] Severe Thunderstorms, High Wind, and Hail From 1990-2010, Cuivre River’s service area within the state of Missouri has experienced a total 298 hail events and 411 thunderstorm/high wind events. The probability of occurrence of in any given year is near 100% (298 events / 20 years= 1,490% and 411 events/ 20 years= 2,055%). Table 1.6 provides a summary of event dates and reported damages for the service area. 26 of these events reported damages of $1,000 or more. Therefore, the probability of damage-causing hail event in the Cuivre River service area in any given year is near to 25% (26 events / 298 occurrences = 8.72%) while the probability of damage-causing thunderstorm/high wind event in any given year is 5.1% (21 events / 411 occurrences = 5.1%). Table 1.7 demonstrates the probability of occurrence in conjunction with the potential extent of damage for both hail and thunderstorm/high wind events. Averaged damage costs could not be determined without cooperative participation. The potential extent of Reported damage as well as the potential extent of impact are Table 1.6 Event date damage unknown. (Hail) $ value 04/24/1993 $5,000 05/10/1993 $1,000 04/26/1994 $50,000 04/10/2001 $100,000,000 02/16/2006 $5,000 Event date Reported (Thunderstorms, damage high winds) $ value 05/10/1993 $6,000 09/22/1993 $1,000 04/15/1994 $5,000 04/26/1994 $10,000 06/22/1994 $1,000 11/20/1994 $1,000 11/21/1994 $4,000 04/10/1995 $1,000 06/08/1995 $4,000 07/25/1995 $2,000 01/18/1996 $200,000 05/25/1996 $5,000 04/18/1997 $100,000 06/20/2000 $2,000 08/10/2001 $5,000 10/24/2001 $250,000 05/07/2002 $1,800,000 08/18/2006 $20,000 07/17/2007 $5,000 06/10/2009 $3,000 08/10/2010 $200,000 Source: National Climatic Data Center, 2011 15-10 | [CUIVRE RIVER ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE] May 18, 2012 Table 1.7 Probability of Hazard Occurrence Potential Extent of Damage Cuivre River Electric Cooperative Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Thunderstorm/High Wind/Hail Less than 10% of damage to system 10-25% damage of system Less than 1% in any given year 1-10% chance in any given year 10- 99% chance in any given year Near 100% probability in any given year 26-50% damage of system More than 50% damage of system Unknown extent of damage Outage information for severe thunderstorms, high winds and hail events was not publically accessible. As a result, average outages per storm cannot be calculated. Table 1.8 demonstrates the probability of occurrence in conjunction with the potential extent of impact upon local customers. Table 1.8 Potential Extent of Impact Cuivre River Electric Cooperative Service Interruption Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Thunderstorm/High Wind/Hail Less than 10% of customers report outages 10-25% of report outages customers 26-50% of report outages customers Probability of Damage-causing Hazard Occurrence Less than 1-10% chance 10- 99% > Near 100% 1% in any in any given chance in any probability in given year year given year any given year More than 50% of customers report outages Unknown potential extent of impact | 15-11 May 18, 2012 [CUIVRE RIVER ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE] Flood and Levee Failure Flood and levee failure carry, perhaps, the greatest ongoing potential threat to the existing infrastructure of the Cuivre River Electric Cooperative. Figure 3 below depicts the 100 year floodplain in relation to the cooperative’s boundaries. (Map sources: FEMA HAZUS-MH; DFIRM). Currently, inundation data for levee failure is lacking due to issues surrounding mapping, appropriate models, and its close association with flooding events. Figure 4 below provides the location of known state and federal levees within the cooperative’s boundaries. (Map sources: MSDIS, County Emergency Management Agency) From 1993-2010, Cuivre River’s service area has experienced 123 flooding events. The probability of occurrence is near 100% (123 events/20 years= 615%). However, there are 5 events that reported a damage of $1,000 or more. Currently, no data concerning levee failure damage can be separated from flood damage data. Therefore, the probability of damage-causing flood/levee failure event affecting the cooperative assets in any given year is 4.1% (5 events / 123 occurrences = 4.1%). Table 1.9 Flood and levee failure events vary widely based upon numerous factors including, but not limited to, annual precipitation and extent of levee damage. Neither damage estimates nor outage information are publicly available and as such cannot be utilized to create damage or impact estimates. Tables 1.10 and 1.11 demonstrate the probability of occurrence in conjunction with the unknown potential extent of damage and impact. 15-12 | CREC Flood Event Summary Event date Reported damage $ value 1993 7M 1994 15M 1995 70K 2007 2K 2008 5M Source: National Climatic Data Center, 2011 [CUIVRE RIVER ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE] May 18, 2012 Table 1.10 Probability of Hazard Occurrence Potential Extent of Damage Cuivre River Electric Cooperative Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Flood 1-10% chance in any given year 10- 99% chance in any given year Near 100% probability in any given year Less than 10% of damage to system 10-25% damage of system 26-50% damage of system More than 50% damage of system Unknown extent of damage Table 1.11 Cuivre River Electric Cooperative Service Interruption Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Flood Less than 10% of customers report outages Potential Extent of Impact Less than 1% in any given year 10-25% of report outages customers 26-50% of report outages customers Probability of Damage-causing Hazard Occurrence Less than 1-10% chance 10- 99% > Near 100% 1% in any in any given chance in any probability in given year year given year any given year More than 50% of customers report outages Unknown extent of impact | 15-13 May 18, 2012 [CUIVRE RIVER ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE] Severe Winter Weather From 1994-2010, Cuivre River’s service area has experienced a total of 155 severe winter weather events, including significant snowfall and ice storms. The probability of occurrence is near 100% (155 events/ 17 years= 911%). 3 events resulted in reported damages of $1,000 or more. Table 1.12 CREC Severe Winter Weather Event Summary Event date Event type 04/05/1994 Winter storm 01/06/1995 Ice storm 01/18/1195 Snow Source: National Climatic Data Center, 2011 The probability of damage-causing occurrence of a severe winter weather event in the Cuivre River service area in any given year is 1.9% (3 events / 155 occurrences = 1.9%). Neither damage estimates nor outage information is publicly available and as such cannot be utilized to create damage or impact estimates. Tables 1.13 and 1.14 demonstrate the probability of occurrence in conjunction with the potential extent of damage and impact. Table 1.13 Probability of Hazard Occurrence Potential Extent of Damage Cuivre River Electric Cooperative Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Severe Winter Weather 1-10% chance in any given year 10- 99% chance in any given year Near 100% probability in any given year Less than 10% of damage to system 10-25% damage of system 26-50% damage of system More than 50% damage of system Unknown extent of damage Table 1.14 Cuivre River Electric Cooperative Service Interruption Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Severe Winter Weather Less than 10% of customers report outages Potential Extent of Impact Less than 1% in any given year 10-25% of report outages customers 26-50% of report outages customers More than 50% of customers report outages Unknown extent of impact 15-14 | Probability of Damage-causing Hazard Occurrence Less than 1-10% chance 10- 99% > Near 100% 1% in any in any given chance in any probability in given year year given year any given year [CUIVRE RIVER ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE] May 18, 2012 Wildfire Wildfire events have occurred in each of the four counties. According to the Missouri Department of Conservation, Lincoln, Pike, St. Charles and Warren counties have experienced wildfires between 2004 and 2008. Table 1.15 summarizes the incidences of wildfire within the four counties. The probability of a wildfire event in the Cuivre River service area in any given year is near 100% (203 events / 5 years = 4,060%). Table 1.15 Wildfire summary by county Average # of Annual # Wildfires, of Acres County 2004-08 Wildfires Burned Lincoln 64 12.8 246.45 Pike 50 10 413.70 St. Charles 64 12.8 276.48 Warren 25 5 114.51 Totals 203 40.6 1051.14 Source: Missouri State Hazard Mitigation Plan, 2010 Average Annual Acres Burned 49 83 55 23 210 Total Buildings Damaged 5 1 1 0 7 The potential extent of damage caused by wildfire is difficult to determine. Like earthquakes and dam failure, wildfires have had no measurable impact upon the CREC service area counties. To date, 203 fires have burned a total of 1051.14 acres, for an average of 5.17 acres affected per event. Cooperative assets are located throughout the service area rather than being located at a single central site. With an average of 5 acres per fire in the service area, it is unlikely that infrastructure damage would exceed 5% based upon asset location and unlikeliness of an uncontrollable wildfire. Neither damage estimates nor outage information is publicly available and as such cannot be utilized to create damage or impact estimates. Further study will be required to create a model for damage assessments related to wildfire. Tables 1.16 and 1.17 demonstrate the probability of occurrence in conjunction with potential extent of damage and impact. Due to the insufficiency of the data, the percentage values calculated for the probability of hazard occurrence are used for the probability of damage-causing hazard occurrence too. Table 1.16 Potential Extent of Damage Cuivre River Electric Cooperative Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Wildfire Probability of Hazard Occurrence Less than 1% in any given year 1-10% chance in any given year 10- 99% chance in any given year Near 100% probability in any given year Less than 10% of damage to system 10-25% damage of system 26-50% damage of system More than 50% damage of system Unknown extent of damage | 15-15 May 18, 2012 [CUIVRE RIVER ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE] Table 1.17 Potential Extent of Impact Cuivre River Electric Cooperative Service Interruption Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Wildfire Less than 10% of customers report outages 10-25% of report outages customers 26-50% of report outages customers More than 50% of customers report outages Unknown extent of impact 15-16 | Probability of Damage-causing Hazard Occurrence Less than 1-10% chance 10- 99% > Near 100% 1% in any in any given chance in any probability in given year year given year any given year [CUIVRE RIVER ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE] May 18, 2012 B. Non-historical Hazards Earthquakes The closest source of earthquake risk in CREC service area include the New Madrid Fault Zone, the Wabash Valley Fault Zone, Big River Fault Zone, St. Genevieve Fault Zone and the Illinois Basin . Between 1811 and 1812, four earthquakes, with magnitude estimates greater than 7.0, occurred during a three month period. Hundreds of aftershocks followed over a period of several years. The largest earthquakes to have occurred since then were on January 4, 1843 and October 31, 1895 with magnitude estimates of 6.0 and 6.2 respectively. In addition to these events, seven events of magnitude 5.0 and greater have occurred in the area. Instruments were installed in and around this area in 1974 to closely monitor seismic activity. Since then, more than 4,000 earthquakes have been located, most of which are too small to be felt. The most recent earthquake event was on June 6, 2003. Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Center for Earthquake Research and Information (CERI) at the University of Memphis have estimated the probability of a magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake from the New Madrid Fault is 25-40 percent through the year 2053. The probability of an earthquake increases with each passing day. The projected earthquake intensity ratings for the cooperative region changes based upon the Modified Mercalli Scale. Given a New Madrid earthquake with a 6.7 magnitude, the region would experience Level V intensity characteristics. In the event of an earthquake with a 7.6 magnitude, the region would experiences Level VI intensity characteristic while an earthquake with an 8.6 magnitude would most likely cause Level VII intensity characteristics. In the event of an earthquake with a 7.6 magnitude, the CREC service area would most likely experience minor building damage as well as damage to the electrical distribution system. This damage, however, would most likely be relatively minimal and localized. Distribution lines overhead and underground could become disconnected or severed, and transformers could be damaged. Though the probability of occurrence is very small, the potential extent of damage could significantly impact both the cooperative and its customers as demonstrated in Table 1.18. | 15-17 May 18, 2012 [CUIVRE RIVER ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE] Table 1.18 Probability of Hazard Occurrence Potential Extent of Damage Cuivre River Electric Cooperative Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Earthquake Less than 1% in any given year 1-10% chance in any given year 10- 99% chance in any given year Near 100% probability in any given year Less than 10% of damage to system 10-25% damage of system 26-50% damage of system More than 50% damage of system Neither damage estimates nor outage information is publicly available and as such cannot be utilized to create damage or impact estimates. Based upon information from CERI, FEMA, and SEMA, it may be estimated that customers could report outages related to an earthquake event with damages that would be expected to be localized and minimal. When compared with the total number of customers served by CREC, it can be projected that up to 10% of all customers may report outages during any given seismic event. Table 1.19 demonstrates the probability of occurrence in conjunction with the potent extent of impact upon local customers. Table 1.19 Potential Extent of Impact Cuivre River Electric Cooperative Service Interruption Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Earthquake Less than 10% of customers report outages 10-25% of report outages customers 26-50% of report outages customers More than 50% of customers report outages 15-18 | Probability of Damage-causing Hazard Occurrence Less than 1-10% chance 10- 99% > Near 100% 1% in any in any given chance in any probability in given year year given year any given year [CUIVRE RIVER ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE] May 18, 2012 Dam Failure Like earthquakes, dam failures have had no measurable impact upon the CREC service area to date. According to Missouri DNR’s Dam Safety Division, 367 dams currently exist within the cooperative boundaries: 68 in Lincoln County, 49 in Pike County, 119 in St. Charles County and 131 in Warren County. Of these dams, nine in Lincoln County, nine in Pike County, 27 in St. Charles County and 42 in Warren County are regulated by the state due to the fact that they are nonagricultural, non-federal dams which exceed 35 feet in height. Figure 6 shows the locations of all known dams located within Cuivre River’s service area. (Map sources: www.msdis.missouri.edu; www.dnr.mo.gov/env/wrc.) Figure 6 26 dam failures have occurred within the state of Missouri over the past 100 years. However, no such event has occurred within or near the cooperative’s boundaries. For the purposes of this assessment, dam failure and its associated impacts cannot be eliminated from the realm of possibility. In order to allow for a risk assessment, the probability of this event has been included as less than 1%. Table 1.20 Potential Extent of Damage Cuivre River Electric Cooperative Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Dam Failure Probability of Hazard Occurrence Less than 1% in any given year 1-10% chance in any given year 10- 99% chance in any given year Near 100% probability in any given year Less than 10% of damage to system 10-25% damage of system 26-50% damage of system More than 50% damage of system | 15-19 May 18, 2012 [CUIVRE RIVER ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE] Determining the potential extent of dam failure is currently impossible due to a lack of data concerning inundation zones. Further study concerning existing dams and their impact is required to make a more comprehensive assessment of potential damages. This initial assessment assumes a limited impact upon downstream electric distribution infrastructure of less than 10% for both infrastructure damage and service interruption. . Table 1.21 Potential Extent of Impact Cuivre River Electric Cooperative Service Interruption Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Hazard: Dam Failure Less than 10% of customers report outages 10-25% of report outages customers 26-50% of report outages customers More than 50% of customers report outages 15-20 | Probability of Damage-causing Hazard Occurrence Less than 1-10% chance 10- 99% > Near 100% 1% in any in any given chance in any probability in given year year given year any given year [CUIVRE RIVER ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE] May 18, 2012 Section 6: Mitigation strategies Previous efforts at mitigation Cuivre River Electric Cooperative chose not to participate in the planning process for their hazard mitigation chapter to be included in the statewide plan. As such, no information concerning previous efforts at mitigation is available. Development of goals, objectives, and actions Without the participation of the cooperative, mitigation goals, objectives, and actions cannot be developed or implemented at this time. Section 7: Plan Implementation and Maintenance Plan incorporation This plan will not be incorporated by the Cuivre River Electric Cooperative. Other Local Planning Mechanisms Other local planning mechanisms, including regional transportation plans, comprehensive plans, emergency management agencies, could benefit from the development of a local rural electrical cooperative hazard mitigation plan. Without participation, however, Cuivre River has not created a final hazard mitigation plan. Plan Maintenance A completed plan has not been created for Cuivre River due to their lack of participation. Maintenance will not be necessary. Continued Public Involvement Opportunities Public involvement cannot be encouraged or solicited without the aid of the Cuivre River Electric Cooperative. | 15-21 May 18, 2012 [CUIVRE RIVER ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE] This page intentionally left blank. 15-22 |