The Exponential Economy - American Public Power Association

Leading in an Era of
Exponential Change:
How to Jump the Curve
to a Smarter Future
American Public Power Association
October 25, 2010 Anaheim, CA
23
23
33
33
Lesson #1:
Focus on the Big Picture
& Beware of 800 pound Gorillas
Jump the Curve
$5242.88!
Nine Forces
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Semiconductors
Data Storage
Bandwidth
Genomics
Energy
Software
Robotics
Nanotechnology
Knowledge
1000X
Jump the Curve
•
•
•
•
•
Solar
Fuel cells
Smart Meters
Synthetic biology
“Micro-grid”
December 17, 1903
December 17, 1903
The World is Flat
November 9,
1989
The World is Flat
November 9,
1989
What the Experts are Saying
“ Because of
nanotechnology
we will see more
change in our
civilization in the
next 25 years than
we did during all
of the 20th
century.”
--- Mike Roco
100 Years Ago
100 Years Ago
100 Years Ago
Practical Applications
• New ceramic materials
– Avoid line loss
• Applications
– Storage of nuclear waste
– Geothermal equipment
Practical Applications
• Nanofilters
• Quantum Dots
– Save $100 billion
• Carbon nanotubes
Wind & Batteries
New materials
New designs
– No gears
Better storage
A Small Change can Lead to Big
Profits ... Nanotechnology
The Future Will Accelerate …
• Computers
–70 Trillion
–1 Quadrillion
–10 Quadrillion
–20 Quadrillion
Computer/Semiconductor
Computer/Semiconductor
Computer/Semiconductor
A “Pretty” Vision…
Better, Faster, Cheaper
Smart Homes
RFID
Demand Side Management
Power-tagging
$150 billion in economic losses
Build fewer new plants
Real-time monitoring
Self-healing smart grid
Solar Farms
Fuel Cells
Study History
Lesson #2: Big Industries Can Become
Obsolete -- Quickly
28
Lesson #3: Think Small Then Think Big
The Math: 1000X!
•
•
•
•
•
•
Day 20 = .1
Day 21 = .2
Day 22 = .4
Day 23 = .8
Day 24 = 1.6%
Day 25 = 3.2 %
•
•
•
•
•
Day 26 = 6.4%
Day 27 = 12.8%
Day 28 = 25.6%
Day 29 = 51.2%
Day 30 = 100%
Synthetic Biology
A Reminder: Objects are Closer …
Solar, Fuel cells, Wind, Batteries
Lesson #4: Be Willing to Unlearn
Lesson #4: Be Willing to Unlearn
Lesson #4: Be Willing to Unlearn
35
New Business Models
36
37
A Test
37
A Test
37
38
The Coming Convergence
Convergence: Wind & Batteries
The Micro Grid?
+
Final Lesson: Believe in the Impossible ....
Fusion & Synthetic Trees?
• December 17, 1903 …
99.6%
– Fusion?
– Solar Paint?
– Quantum Wires?
The Courage to Chart a New Course
The Courage to Chart a New Course
The Courage to Chart a New Course
Resources
•
•
•
•
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.jumpthecurve.net
Blog: www.jumpthecurve.net
Twitter: twitter/com/jumpthecurve