OIL AND GAS WEEKLY

Transcription

OIL AND GAS WEEKLY

FEBRUARY 12, 2016
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
Topic of the week
Evgenia Dyshlyuk
+7 (495) 983-1800 (ext. 5-4129)
[email protected]
2015 results by international oil majors: record losses in 4Q, expecting capex cuts
and asset sales to continue this year
Alexander Nazarov
+7 (495) 980-4381
[email protected]
In this issue of Oil and Gas Weekly, we examine the 4Q15 and 2015 financial results
of international oil majors.
Evgeniy Khilinskiy
+7 (495) 287-6100 (ext. 5-1643)
[email protected]
At a roughly 50% YoY oil price drop, the oil majors’ earnings deteriorated significantly
last year, with record losses posted in 4Q15. Aggregate earnings of the six
international oil majors – Shell, ExxonMobil, BP, Total, Chevron and ConocoPhillips –
fell by almost 80% YoY (or by $65 bln) in 2015. Two of the players – BP and
ConocoPhillips – finished the year with net losses. The decline in earnings was driven
by the upstream segment, particularly in the US, on lower commodity prices,
impairments and other factors.
As of end 2015, the aggregate net debt of the majors climbed by almost 30% (by $37 bln)
from end 2014, with Chevron and ExxonMobil accounting for roughly 60% of the increase.
Contents:
Trading ideas summary ................. 2
Aggregate capex spending of the majors was down by roughly 20% (by $33 bln) in
2015. We expect further capex cuts of at least $28 bln this year. In addition, in 2016,
international oil companies plan to reduce costs by $10-12 bln (in aggregate), as well
as continue divestment of assets. Proceeds from asset sales by the six majors could
reach $26 bln this year. The combined effect on the companies’ cash flows from
capex/opex cuts and asset sales is estimated in aggregate at $61-66 bln in 2016.
Topic of the week .......................... 3
The continuing trend of reduced spending by international oil majors supports our
arguments in favor of oil price recovery (see our Oil & Gas Weekly from January 22).
Calendar of events ........................ 25
Week in review.............................. 7
International markets..................... 8
Equity valuation............................. 13
Fixed Income valuation ................. 15
Equity relative performance ........... 24
Ideas for this week
Companies mentioned
Equity. We would keep long positions in NOVATEK on expectations of its lesser
exposure to the negative effect from the tax increase and strong 4Q15 results.
Tatneft
Debt. On the back of volatility in the oil price and ruble exchange rate, the G-spreads of
Russian O&G companies increased by 20-30 bps on average.
Shell
ExxonMobil
BP
Total
Chevron
ConocoPhillips
Charts of the week
International oil majors’ net earnings in 2015, $ bln
10
EXXONMOBIL
4.2
5.1
CHEVRON
4.8
40
60
40
30
20
10
31.2
0
-10
-30
3.8
2015
Source: company data
Research Department
GAZPROM 16 MAY
SIBUR 18
TRANSNEFT 18
GAZPROM 16 NOV
NOVATEK 16
TNK 17
TNK 18
TNK 16
LUKOIL 17
ROSNEFT 17
GAZPROM 18
LUKOIL 18
-20
6.9
2014
bps
50
32.5
14.9
1.9
CONOCOPHILLIPS -4.4
BP -6.5
30
16.2
TOTAL
SHELL
20
EDC 20
GAZPROM 19
LUKOIL 19
NOVATEK 22
NOVATEK 21
GAZPROM 20
LUKOIL 23
LUKOIL 20
GAZPROM 22 4.95
LUKOIL 22
GAZPROM 21
GAZPROM 22 6.51
SIBNEFT 23
TNK 20
SIBNEFT 22
ROSNEFT 22
0
GAZPROM 34
GAZPROM 28
GAZPROM 37
-10
Russian O&G segment G-spreads, WoW
Source: Bloomberg, Gazprombank estimates
1
Copyright © 2003-2016
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
FEBRUARY 12, 2016
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
WEEKLY TRADING IDEAS SUMMARY
Equity
COMPANY
TICKER
CURRENT PRICE
IDEA
NOVATEK
NVTK LI
$76
We would keep long positions in NOVATEK on expectations of its lesser
exposure to the negative effect from the tax increase and strong 4Q15
results.
Fixed Income
IDEAS
We currently see Russian oil & gas papers as priced fairly to each other. For those seeking to invest at attractive yields with low short-term risk, we
recommend to buy the SIBUR18 (YTM 5.12%, duration 1.9) and the medium to long-term SIBNEF23 (YTM 7.21%, duration 6.2).
Research Department
2
FEBRUARY 12, 2016
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
TOPIC OF THE WEEK
2015 results by international oil majors: record losses in 4Q, expecting
capex cuts and asset sales to continue this year
In this issue of Oil and Gas Weekly, we examine the 4Q15 and 2015 financial results of
international oil majors.
At a roughly 50% YoY oil price drop, the oil majors’ earnings deteriorated significantly last
year, with record losses posted in 4Q15. Aggregate earnings of the six international oil
majors – Shell, ExxonMobil, BP, Total, Chevron and ConocoPhillips – fell by almost 80%
YoY (or by $65 bln) in 2015. Two of the players – BP and ConocoPhillips – finished the
year with net losses. The decline in earnings was driven by the upstream segment,
particularly in the US, on lower commodity prices, impairments and other factors.
As of end 2015, the aggregate net debt of the majors climbed by almost 30% (by $37 bln)
from end 2014, with Chevron and ExxonMobil accounting for roughly 60% of the increase.
The aggregate capex spending of the majors was down by roughly 20% (by $33 bln) in
2015. We expect further capex cuts of at least $28 bln this year. In addition, in 2016,
international oil companies plan to reduce costs by $10-12 bln (in aggregate), as well as
continue divestment of assets. Proceeds from asset sales by the six majors could reach
$26 bln this year. The combined effect on the companies’ cash flows from capex/opex cuts
and asset sales is estimated in aggregate at $61-66 bln in 2016.
The continuing trend of reduced spending by international oil majors supports our arguments in
favor of oil price recovery (see our Oil & Gas Weekly from January 22).
Roughly 80% YoY decline in aggregate earnings of the oil majors in 2015
In 2015, at a roughly 50% YoY Brent oil price drop, revenues of the six international oil
majors declined by 36% on average (see Graph 1), while earnings were down more
significantly (see Graph 2). Aggregate earnings of the six companies decreased by 79%
YoY (by $65 bln) in 2015.
Two of the players – BP and ConocoPhillips – finished 2015 in negative territory, delivering
net losses of $6.5 bln and $4.4 bln, respectively. For BP, this was its worst annual loss in
20 years. Net income at ExxonMobil, Chevron and Shell was down by roughly 50-90%
YoY. Total showed better performance last year, posting a 20% increase in the bottom line,
while its net income adjusted for impairments and other items was down by only 18%.
Graph 1. International oil majors – total revenues and other
income in 2015, $ bln
0
100
200
300
400
Graph 2. International oil majors – net income/loss to
shareholders in 2015, $ bln
500
-10
0
10
SHELL
EXXONMOBIL
EXXONMOBIL
TOTAL
4.2
5.1
BP
CHEVRON
4.8
TOTAL
SHELL
CHEVRON
CONOCOPHILLIPS
CONOCOPHILLIPS
2015
Research Department
40
32.5
31.2
14.9
1.9
6.9
-4.4
3.8
2014
30
16.2
BP -6.5
2014
20
2015
3
FEBRUARY 12, 2016
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
4Q15 marked by record losses, with the largest seen at ConocoPhillips and BP
The fourth quarter was particularly tough for international oil majors: earnings at four of the
six players were in the red (see Table 1). ConocoPhillips and BP delivered the largest net
losses in 4Q15, at $3.5 bln and $3.3 bln, respectively. For ConocoPhillips, this marked the
largest loss since 4Q08, when the oil market crashed.
They were followed by Total and Chevron, with net losses of $1.6 bln and $0.6 bln,
respectively, in 4Q15. Net income at ExxonMobil was down by almost 60% YoY to $2.8 bln.
Shell delivered net income of around $940 mln in 4Q15 after a net loss of $7.4 bln in 3Q15.
The aggregate net loss of the six majors stood at $5.3 bln in 4Q15.
Table 1. International oil majors – net income/loss to shareholders in 4Q15 and 2015, $ mln
4Q14
4Q15
YOY
2014
2015
YOY
WTI price, $/bbl
73.2
41.9
-42.7%
93.2
48.7
-47.8%
Brent price, $/bbl
76.4
43.5
-43.0%
98.9
52.3
-47.1%
Henry Hub gas price, $/mcm
3.8
2.1
-44.2%
4.4
2.6
-39.9%
NBP gas price, $/mcm
7.8
5.4
-30.5%
7.3
6.3
-14.7%
6,570
2,780
-57.7%
32,520
16,150
-50.3%
-5,658
-1,626
n/m
4,244
5,087
19.9%
3,471
-588
n/m
19,241
4,587
-76.2%
Shell
595
939
57.8%
14,874
1,939
-87.0%
ConocoPhillips
-39
-3,450
n/m
6,869
-4,428
n/m
-4,407
-3,307
n/m
3,780
-6,482
n/m
ExxonMobil
Total
Chevron
BP
Source: company data, EIA, Bloomberg, Gazprombank estimates
Decline in earrings driven by upstream operations, particularly in the US
The decline in earnings of international oil majors in 2015 was driven by the upstream
segment, particularly in the US, on lower commodity prices, impairments and other factors
(see Graphs 3-6). In 4Q15, at an average Brent price of $43.5/bbl, upstream earnings at
ExxonMobil were down by roughly $7 bln from the 1Q14 level to below $1 bln. For
Chevron, upstream earnings dropped from $4.3 bln in 1Q14 to $1.6 bln in 1Q15 and were
in negative territory in 2Q-3Q15. Both companies’ upstream earnings from the US were in
the red throughout 2015, with the loss widening toward year end.
Graph 3. ExxonMobil – net earnings by segment, $ bln
Graph 4. Chevron – net earnings by segment, $ bln
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
7.8
7.9
6.4
2
4
5.5
2.9
0
2.0
2
1.4
0.9
5.3
4.3
4.6
2.7
1.6
0
-2
-2
0.1
-2.2
-1.4
-4
-4
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
CORPORATE AND OTHER
1Q15
2Q15
DOWNSTREAM
3Q15
4Q15
1Q14
UPSTREAM
Source: company data,
Research Department
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
CORPORATE AND OTHER
1Q15
2Q15
DOWNSTREAM
3Q15
4Q15
UPSTREAM
4
FEBRUARY 12, 2016
Graph 5. ExxonMobil – upstream net earnings by geography,
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
Graph 6. Chevron – upstream net earnings by geography, $ bln
$ bln
8
8
6.7
6.5
6
4.0
4
2
6
5.2
2.9
1.2
1.2
1.5
1.3
4
2.08
1.8
3.4
4.2
3.7
2.2
1.4
2
0
0.9
1.1
0.9
2.0
0.7
0.4
0.6
0
-0.1
-0.05
-0.4
-2
-0.5
-0.5
-2
-4
-1.0-1.2
-0.6
-2.0
-4
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
US
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q14
NON-US
2Q14
3Q14
US
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
NON-US
Climbing net debt
As of end 2015, the aggregate net debt of the six majors rose by 27% (by $37 bln) (see Table
2). The largest increases in net debt in absolute terms were seen at Chevron (+$12.5 bln) and
Exxon Mobil (+$10.6 bln). Other companies posted increases of up to $5 bln YoY.
Table 2. International oil majors – net debt in 2015, $ bln
END 2014
END 2015
CHANGE
ExxonMobil
24.4
35.0
10.6
Total
31.2
33.7
2.4
Chevron
15.0
27.6
12.5
BP
23.1
26.8
3.7
Shell
23.9
26.6
2.7
ConocoPhillips
17.5
22.5
5.0
135.2
172.2
37.0
Total
Source: company data, Gazprombank estimates
Expecting further capex and opex cuts, as well as asset sales, this year
We estimate that the combined capex of the six international oil majors decreased by 18%
YoY (by $33 bln) in 2015 (see Graph 7). The annual capex cuts ranged from $2.5 bln
(Total) to $7.0 bln (ConocoPhillips).
This year we expect this trend to continue. According to our estimates, based on the most
recent guidance by the majors, aggregate organic capex of the six players should decline
by $27.6 bln in 2016 (see Graph 8). Yet, we believe that this number may be further
reduced, as the international oil majors continue to rationalize capex spending in the
current $30/bbl oil price environment.
Research Department
5
FEBRUARY 12, 2016
34.0
EXXONMOBIL
31.1
TOTAL
30.5
28.0
SHELL
26.1
BP
CONOCOPHILLIPS
19.5
10.1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
-9
50
40.3
38.5
31.7
-1.7
-3.7
23.8
-3.0
-4.0
-5.5
-6.3
-7.4
17.1
2014
-4.3
-2.5
-7.0
-7.5 -7.9
2015
2015 VS. 2014
SHELL
CHEVRON
40
TOTAL
30
BP
20
EXXONMOBIL
10
CHEVRON
0
Graph 8. International oil majors – expected capex cuts in 20152016, $ bln
CONOCOPHILLIPS
Graph 7. International oil majors – capex in 2015, $ bln
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
2016 VS. 2015
Source: company data, media sources, Gazprombank estimate,
In addition to slashed capex spending, international oil majors are planning to reduce
operating costs and continue divesting assets in 2016 (see Table 2). We estimate
aggregate cost savings by the six majors at $10-12 bln and proceeds from asset sales at
up to $26 bln this year. The combined effect on the companies’ cash flows from capex/opex
cuts and asset sales is estimated at $61-66 bln in 2016.
Table 3. International oil majors – expected capex cuts, cost savings and asset sales in 2016, $ bln
ORGANIC CAPEX CUTS
COST SAVINGS
ASSET SALES
TOTAL
Chevron
7.4
1.6
5.0
14
ExxonMobil
7.9
tbd
tbd
8
ConocoPhillips
3.7
1.0
1.0-2.0
6-7
BP
1.7
1.8-3.6
3.0-5.0
6.5-10
Total
4.0
2.4
4.0
10
Shell
3.0
3.0
10.0
16
TOTAL
28
10-12
23-26
61-66
Source: company data, media sources, Gazprombank estimates
Research Department
6
FEBRUARY 12, 2016
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
WEEK IN REVIEW
Oil news
Oil prices were under pressure last week, with Brent falling 12% to $30.4/bbl.
KEY CORPORATE NEWS
Tatarstan to privatize stakes in Tatneft and NKNH, but sale on open
market seems unlikely. Neutral
News. The government of the Republic of Tatarstan has included a 22.088% stake in
Nizhnekamskneftekhim (NKNH) and a 4.31% stake in Tatneft in the privatization plan
for 2016, according to a ruling by the republic’s cabinet of ministers. In addition, the
Tatarstan government plans to privatize its entire stake in the TANECO refinery
complex (9% of charter capital). The sales could be conducted under two possible
scenarios – via open auctions or by contributing the stakes to the charter capital of
joint stock companies.
TICKER
ATAD LI
GAZP RX
Target price
USD 32.1
RUB 201.2
Closing price
USD 24.3
RUB 147.5
Recommendation
OVERWEIGHT
OVERWEIG
Upside
32%
36%
Ratings
-/Ba1/BBB-
BB+/Ba1/BB
Source: Bloomberg
Effect on company. The privatization of stakes in Tatneft and NKNH could be a
unique event, as the Tatarstan government has never before sold such large stakes in
strategically important companies on the open market. However, we do not believe
that sales on the open market are likely. The charters of the aforementioned
companies contain a statute concerning a “golden share” held by the government,
which the latter will probably wish to retain. We also believe that the privatization of oil
and petrochemicals companies makes little economic sense given current
commodities prices.
The second scenario for the proposed privatization (via contribution to charter capital)
leads us to believe that the sales will likely be conducted via other means, for example by
changing the form of ownership of the republic’s assets. Finally, even should the
government sell its stakes for cash, it would likely conclude such deals with the companies’
existing major shareholders (TAIF for NKNH and the management for Tatneft).
Effect on shares and bonds. Tatneft shares showed almost no reaction to the news
on privatization, while less-liquid NKNH shares jumped 4.0-4.5%. We regard this
reaction as excessively optimistic. In our view, the future decision on dividends will be
more important for the share price dynamics. NKNH shareholders will hold their AGM
on April 15, with the record date set for March 5. The company’s BoD will likely
announce its recommendation on dividends in early March. We anticipate some clarity
regarding Tatneft’s dividends after the company releases its RAS report for FY15,
which we expect to see in late March.
Research Department
7
FEBRUARY 12, 2016
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
EIA: US shale oil output to fall by 92 kbpd in March
Crude oil production in March from seven major US shale plays is expected to fall by
92 kbpd to 4.92 mln bpd, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s
latest Drilling Productivity Report (DPR).
The DPR focuses on the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville, Marcellus, Niobrara, Permian
and Utica, which altogether accounted for 95% of US crude oil production increases and
all US natural gas production increases during 2011-13.
Output from the Eagle Ford in March is forecast to decline by 50 kbpd to 1.22 mln bpd,
followed by a 25 kbpd drop in the Bakken to 1.1 mln bpd and a 15 kbpd loss in the
Niobrara to 389 kbpd.
The Permian is seen rising by 1 kbpd to 2.04 mln bpd.
New-well oil production per rig across the seven plays in March is expected to increase
by a rig-weighted average of 4 bpd to 504 bpd. Expected to lead the way is the Utica, up
13 bpd to 308 bpd, with the Niobrara closely behind at a 12 bpd rise to 741 bpd. The
Eagle Ford is seen gaining 8 bpd to 812 bpd.
The EIA projects natural gas production in March from the seven plays to decline by
451 mln cfd to 44.26 bcfd, mostly reflecting a 202 mln cfd drop in the Marcellus to
15.7 bcfd, a 158 mln cfd loss in the Eagle Ford to 6.44 bcfd, and a 70 mln cfd
decline in the Niobrara to 4.15 bcfd.
The Utica, meanwhile, is expected to rise by 32 mln cfd to 3.28 bcfd.
IEA raises estimate of surplus oil supply on higher OPEC output
The global oil surplus will be bigger than previously estimated in the first half, increasing
the risk of further price losses, as OPEC members Iran and Iraq bolster production while
demand growth slows, according to the International Energy Agency.
Supply may exceed consumption by an average of 1.75 mln bpd in the period, compared
with an estimate of 1.5 mln bpd last month, and the excess could swell if OPEC adds
more output, the IEA said. Iran raised production in January following the removal of
international sanctions, Iraqi volumes reached a record and Saudi Arabia also ramped
up output. The agency trimmed estimates for global oil demand.
“With the market already awash in oil, it is very hard to see how oil prices can rise
significantly in the short term”, the Paris-based adviser to 29 nations said in its monthly
market report. “In these conditions the short-term risk to the downside has increased".
Oil prices remain capped near $30/bbl after slumping to a 12-year low in late January.
While prices recovered on speculation that OPEC might agree to production curbs with
non-members, “the likelihood of coordinated cuts is very low”, according to the IEA. No
agreement to restrain supply emerged last week after Venezuelan Oil Minister Eulogio
Del Pino toured oil capitals from Moscow to Riyadh.
Production from OPEC’s 13 members climbed by 280 kbpd last month to 32.63 mln
bpd, the IEA said. That’s about 900 kbpd more than the average required from the
group in 2016.
Iran expanded production by 80 kbpd to 2.99 mln bpd in January after reaching a deal
with world powers that lifted oil sanctions in return for limits on the nation’s nuclear
program. Iraq increased output by 50 kbpd to 4.35 mln bpd and could raise that further,
according to the IEA, which had predicted in October that the country would struggle to
add new supplies. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s biggest member and de facto leader, boosted
production by 70 kbpd to 10.21 mln bpd.
Research Department
8
FEBRUARY 12, 2016
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
The IEA lowered its estimates for global oil demand for last year and 2016, by 100 kbpd,
leaving the level of growth for this year unchanged at 1.2 mln bpd to average 95.6 mln
bpd. That growth is weaker than the five-year peak of 1.6 mln bpd reached in 2015, amid
slowdowns in Europe, China and the US.
Oil inventories in developed nations increased in December, a month when they
normally decline, by 7.6 mln bbl to 3 bln bbl. That left stockpiles about 350 mln bbl above
average, according to the report.
Supplies outside OPEC slipped by 500 kbpd in January from the previous month,
halting annual growth. While non-OPEC production will drop by 600 kbpd this year as
the US shale boom sputters, the decline is “taking an awful long time to happen,” the
agency said.
BHI: US rig count plummets 48 units in biggest decline in months
The US drilling rig count began February with its largest decline in nearly 11 months,
plunging 48 units to 571 during the week ended February 5, according to data from
Baker Hughes.
Now down 885 units YoY, the count has fallen to its lowest point since July 9, 1999. The
nadir of the 1998-99 downturn was 488 units on April 23, 1999.
BHI also reported on February 5 that the average US rig count for January was 654,
down 60 from December and down 1,029 from January 2015.
Houston-based onshore drilling contractor Patterson-UTI Energy this week reported that
in January it averaged 78 rigs operating in the US and four in Canada, compared with 82
in the US and one in Canada in December and 188 in the US and 10 in Canada in
January 2015.
Based on contracts currently in place, the company expects an average of 59 rigs
operating under term contracts during the first quarter, and an average of 46 rigs
operating under term contracts during all of 2016, according to its end 2015 financial
results statement.
Meanwhile, Swiss offshore drilling contractor Noble Corp. said this week in its earnings
report that, during 4Q15, the firm reduced its fleet to 30 units by retiring its Noble Charles
Copeland jack up rig and Noble Discoverer drillship.
The Discoverer’s contract was canceled in December by Royal Dutch Shell after the
firm’s ill-fated Chukchi Sea exploration drilling program.
US oil-directed rigs fell 31 units during the week to 467, down 673 YoY and their lowest
count since March 12, 2010. Their recent peak was 1,609 on October 10, 2014.
Gas-directed rigs maintained a noticeable share of the overall US decline, dropping 17
units to 104, down 210 YoY and their new lowest level in BHI data that dates back to
July 1987.
Israel reviewing the possibility of launching two pipeline ventures to
export gas to Turkey and Greece
In late January, Tel Aviv, Nicosia and Athens agreed to work on joint projects to export
gas from the Eastern Mediterranean’s gas reserves discovered in the seas belonging to
Israel and Cyprus to Europe.
"If things improve with Turkey… gas could both be sold to Turkey, and to Greece via
Turkey", Steinitz told the Greek Kathimerini newspaper.
The Israeli minister added that the discovery of strategic gas reserves in Israel and Egypt
would justify the costs of building a major pipeline to Greece.
Ankara has been in talks with Israeli firms over a potential pipeline to carry Israeli natural
gas to Turkey for several years, but the negotiations reached an impasse as relations
Research Department
9
FEBRUARY 12, 2016
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
between the two countries deteriorated.
Relations between Israel and Turkey deteriorated after the Freedom Flotilla incident in
2010, when a convoy of six ships, including one under Turkey's flag, tried to approach
the Gaza Strip with humanitarian aid and activists on board. The flotilla was blocked and
stormed by Israeli forces, with eight Turkish citizens being killed.
Currently, Israel’s Leviathan gas field, first drilled in 2011, is one of the largest young gas
reserves in the world, with some 3,450 tcm of natural gas of undiscovered reserves.
US Department of Energy renews authorization LNG exports from
ConocoPhillips-operated Kenai LNG facility in Alaska
ConocoPhillips filed an application in October last year seeking authorization to export
LNG in an amount up to the equivalent of 40 bcf of natural gas to free trade agreement
and non-FTA countries.
The authorization is for a two-year period, starting on February 19, after the current LNG
export permit expires.
This authorization is the latest in a series of export authorizations issued to ConocoPhillips
over nearly 50 years permitting the export of LNG from the state of Alaska.
The Kenai LNG plant began operating in 1969 and has shipped about 1,300 cargoes of
chilled gas since then.
Pakistan reportedly to sign long-term deal to import LNG from Qatar
this week
Under the 15-year deal, Qatar will supply 3.5 mln tpa of LNG to Pakistan, Reuters
reported on Monday.
A report by Pakistan Today says that the country negotiated a “very attractive price” of
$5.35/MMBtu as compared to the $6.56/MMBtu figure agreed in 2013, due to declining
oil and gas prices.
Pakistan’s Economic Coordination Committee recently approved Pakistan State Oil’s 15year LNG sale and purchase agreement with Qatargas.
In response to a proposal by the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Resources, the
Committee “approved the signing of an LNG sale purchase agreement (SPA) with
Qatargas for a period of 15 years and authorized the PSO to execute the SPA under a
government to government arrangement after completing the due process”, ECC said.
It was reported in November last year that PSO agreed to import 1.5 mln tonnes of LNG
per year under the long-term deal from the world’s largest LNG producer.
Pakistan began importing LNG in March 2015 in order to replace conventional fuels to
fire its power stations.
The country is importing chilled gas through Excelerate Energy’s 150,900 cbm FSRU
Exquisite, which is chartered by Engro Elengy, located at the Port Qasim in Karachi.
The Port Qasim facility received 17 cargoes or 1 mln tonnes of LNG by end December.
Venture Global LNG announces subsidiary’s entry to sales and
purchase agreement with Shell NA LNG
Under the agreement, Shell has agreed to purchase 1 mln tpy of LNG over a 20-year
period from Venture Global Calcasieu Pass’ facility, which is being developed in
Cameron Parish, Louisiana, US. The agreement will take effect once the facility begins
commercial operations, and will see Shell purchase the LNG on a free on board basis
(FOB) for a purchase price that will be indexed to monthly Henry Hub prices, as well a
facility fee indexed to inflation.
Research Department
10
FEBRUARY 12, 2016
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
The co-CEOs of Venture Global LNG, Mike Sabel and Bob Pender, said: “Venture
Global LNG considers the Shell 20-year SPA to be an important milestone for the
company. We are delighted that we continue to achieve our promised milestones as we
implement our strategy to become the lowest cost producer of LNG in the world”.
Venture Global LNG is developing two facilities. The first is the 10 mln tpy Venture
Global Calcasieu Pass facility, which is located on a 1,000 acre (approximately) site at
the intersection between the Gulf of Mexico and Calcasieu Ship Channel. The second is
the 20 mln tpy Venture Global Plaquemines LNG facility, which is located on a 630 acre
site in Plaquemines Parish at river mile marker 55 on the Mississippi River.
Australia’s LNG exports almost completely offset the costs of
importing petroleum products in December, for the first time in
more than five years
In December, despite the 40% slump in global oil prices, the value of Australian LNG and
other petroleum exports just about completely offset the huge cost of importing crude oil,
petrol and other petroleum products, the report said.
Australia’s total trade deficit across all goods and commodities in December last year
was AUD 3.54 bln compared with AUD 786 mln a year earlier (1 Australian dollar =
0.711485 US dollars).
“Australia’s established LNG projects – Woodside’s North West Shelf and Pluto and
ConocoPhillips’ Darwin LNG – have been performing exceptionally well. Now the three
new Queensland projects have joined that total LNG production flow”, the CEO of
EnergyQuest, Graeme Bethune, said in the report.
Australian LNG production reached a record 9.1 mln tonnes in the December quarter, a
rise of 48% from a year earlier. Increased LNG production has offset the fall in LNG
prices resulting from the slump in oil prices, the CEO said.
According to Betune, EnergyQuest estimates that increased LNG production improved
Australia’s overall trade balance by approximately $500 mln in December alone.
“As LNG production continues to grow, petroleum is likely to make an increasingly
positive contribution to the overall Australian trade balance”, Bethune said.
Research Department
11
FEBRUARY 12, 2016
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
EQUITY PERFORMANCE
Equity weekly performance, in USD, % change
Gazprombank recommendations
TRANSNEFT
GPB
RATING
0.3%
GAZPROM NEFT
-7.2%
NOVATEK
-7.6%
BASHNEFT
-8.2%
ROSNEFT
-9.3%
TATNEFT
-9.9%
LUKOIL
-15%
-11.0%
-13%
-11%
-9%
-7%
-5%
-3%
-1%
CLOSING
PRICE,
RUB/$
2,323.0
2,935.9
311.7
31.8
201.2
32.1
2,104.5
2,408.5
271.2
37.2
144.4
24.3
10%
22%
15%
-14%
39%
32%
1,861.0
28.3
217.0
1,774.0
43.4
176.1
5%
-35%
23%
201.2
110.0
131.3
77.9
53%
41%
76,309.0
187,900.0
-59%
Russian oil companies
N
Bashneft
OW
Lukoil
N
Rosneft
UW
Surgutneftegas
Gazprom Neft
OW
Tatneft ADR
N
Preferred shares**
N
Bashneft pref
N
SurgutNG
OW
Tatneft
Russian gas companies
OW
Gazprom
OW
NOVATEK
Russian pipeline companies
UW
Transneft pref
-6.1%
SURGUTNG
TARGET
PRICE, RUB/$
1%
Source: Bloomberg (as of February 12)
Source: Gazprombank estimates, Bloomberg (as of February 12)
Financial valuation
Operational valuation
61
25
Chevron
EM
51
PetroChina
20
Chevron
ExxonMobil
31
DM
BP
21
EM
ConocoPhillips
Total
RD Shell
Lukoil Rosneft
Petrobras
Tatneft
Bashneft
Russian oils
Gazprom
Gazprom Neft
3
5
1
7
9
ExxonMobil
15
RD Shell
DM
Petrobras
10
BP
Russian oils
5
Gazprom NeftBashneftNovatek
Rosneft
SurgutNG
LukoilTatneft
0
Gazprom
0
50
100
Novatek
11
SurgutNG
1
EV/Reserves
P/E 16
41
11
EV/EBITDA 16
40%
Rosneft
0%
Bashneft
Tatneft
Gazprom Neft
Petrobras
RD Shell
PetroChina
Total
-15%
3-yr CAGR Net income
Gazprom
-5%
-10%
BP
Chevron
-20%
1
3
5
7
200
250
300
Novatek
BP
ExxonMobil
PetroChina
Chevron
-80%
-100%
-120%
-140%
ConocoPhillips
-160%
-180%
9
0
EV/EBITDA 16
10
20
30
40
50
60
P/E 16
Research Department
150
Rosneft
20%
Bashneft
Tatneft
0% Neft
Total
Gazprom
Gazprom
-20%
SurgutNG Lukoil
RD Shell
-40%
Petrobras
-60%
Lukoil
5% SurgutNG
ConocoPhillips
Net income growth valuation
20%
10%
PetroChina
EBITDA growth valuation
15%
Total
EV/Production 14
3-yr CAGR EBITDA
UPSIDE
12
FEBRUARY 12, 2016
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
EQUITY VALUATION
GPB
RATING
CLOSING
PRICE, $
MARKET
CAP, $ MLN
PERFORMANCE, $
5D
1M
EV/EBITDA
YTD
2015
P/E
2016
2015
EV/PRODUCTION
2016
2015
2016
EV/
RESERVES
DIVIDEND
YIELD, 21
RUSSIAN OIL COMPANIES
Bashneft
N
2104.5
5,243
-8%
-2%
-5%
2.8
3.0
4.3
4.7
48
43
2.5
7.4%
Gazprom Neft
OW
144.4
8,609
-6%
-10%
-15%
3.0
3.4
2.7
3.1
39
37
1.7
7.1%
Lukoil
OW
2408.5
25,769
-11%
1%
-9%
2.5
2.8
6.1
6.5
43
41
2.0
9.0%
N
271.2
36,155
-9%
4%
-7%
3.4
3.8
5.8
7.0
34
32
1.5
3.8%
UW
37.2
20,915
-6%
5%
-5%
1.0
1.3
2.1
7.0
10
10
0.9
3.1%
N
4.0
9,069
-10%
-2%
-13%
3.3
3.9
5.8
6.6
43
42
1.3
4.2%
2.7
3.0
4.5
5.8
36
34
1.6
5.8%
Rosneft
SurgutNG
Tatneft
Average
RUSSIAN GAS COMPANIES
Gazprom
OW
131.3
39,084
-6%
-6%
-15%
2.6
3.3
2.7
2.9
23
23
0.6
5.6%
NOVATEK
OW
608.3
23,235
-8%
3%
-10%
10.9
10.1
15.8
10.7
62
60
2.2
2.4%
6.8
6.7
9.2
6.8
42
41
1.4
4.0%
-9%
3.5
4.1
7.1
7.1
n/a
n/a
n/a
1.0%
Average
RUSSIAN PIPELINE COMPANIES
Transneft pref
UW
187900.0
16,786
0%
-10%
PREFERRED SHARES
Bashneft
N
1774.0
665
-5%
-3%
-8%
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
9.0%
SurgutNG
N
43.4
4,202
-7%
-7%
-13%
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
17.4%
OW
176.1
327
-9%
-15%
-18%
Tatneft
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
7.7%
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
11.4%
-14%
7.0
7.4
30.3
43.8
204
204
12.7
2.7%
-38%
6.0
5.8
7.1
5.7
136
136
9.6
21.7%
-4%
-18%
5.6
5.2
12.7
10.9
518
527
100.2
2.3%
-4%
-13%
5.3
5.1
15.4
14.5
282
282
30.3
4.1%
-5%
7%
-10%
3.4
3.0
9.3
10.6
77
64
10.8
0.8%
42,866
-1%
1%
-10%
3.6
4.1
15.4
45.6
120
114
11.0
4.9%
1.6
6,195
-8%
14%
-4%
1.9
2.2
9.8
17.3
58
53
9.0
3.8%
n/r
2.8
24,264
-9%
-12%
-18%
3.6
4.2
6.5
8.3
74
74
4.4
5.1%
SasolLtd
n/r
26.2
17,050
-3%
8%
-7%
4.1
6.1
7.7
13.8
239
228
18.2
4.3%
MOL
n/r
49.5
5,169
-1%
6%
-1%
3.9
4.1
12.8
9.2
225
240
23.1
3.8%
4.4
4.7
12.7
18.0
193
192
23
5.4%
Average
EMERGING MARKET
OILS
PetroChina
n/r
0.6
190,230
-2%
0%
Petrobras
n/r
1.1
16,956
-7%
-29%
Kunlun
n/r
0.7
6,051
-1%
Sinopec
n/r
0.5
76,564
-5%
YPF
n/r
15.7
6,175
CNOOC
n/r
1.0
PTT EP
n/r
ONGC
Average
DEVELOPED MARKETS MAJORS
BP
n/r
27.6
85,153
-9%
-4%
-12%
5.4
5.5
13.2
22.1
105
107
7.0
8.6%
Chevron
n/r
83.0
156,190
0%
3%
-8%
6.5
7.1
22.3
54.3
190
192
16.2
5.2%
ConocoPhillips
n/r
31.9
39,360
-3%
-22%
-32%
8.1
8.9
neg
neg
110
109
7.0
9.2%
ENI
n/r
12.7
46,175
-11%
-10%
-18%
4.2
4.3
41.8
28.2
117
119
10.5
7.2%
ExxonMobil
n/r
79.6
331,370
-1%
8%
2%
8.7
9.9
20.6
31.6
241
254
14.5
3.6%
RD Shell
n/r
21.5
138,265
-6%
6%
-9%
4.8
4.8
12.8
16.0
142
148
12.7
8.7%
Statoil
n/r
13.3
42,502
-9%
8%
-9%
2.8
3.1
18.8
25.2
76
77
10.1
6.3%
Total
n/r
41.2
101,183
-8%
-2%
-12%
5.2
6.1
10.2
13.5
156
167
11.3
6.5%
5.7
6.2
20.0
27.3
142
146
11.2
6.9%
Average
Research Department
13
FEBRUARY 12, 2016
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
FIXED INCOME SUMMARY
Russian O&G majors capital structure
EM O&G debt-relative valuation, as of February, 8
800
Z-SPREAD,
BPS
100%
ROSNRM 22
SIBNEF 22
LUKOIL 22
40%
500
20%
400
GAZPROM
RUBLE BONDS
ROSNEFT
LUKOIL
EUROBONDS
GAZPROM
NEFT
SIBUR 18
300
NOVATEK BASHNEFT TRANSNEFT
NET DEBT/ LTM EBITDA
BANK LOANS AND OTHER INDEBTEDNESS
200
EQUITY
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
10
15
20
2.0
Alliance Oil 20
Lukoil 22
Gazprom 20E
SibNeft 23
Lukoil 19
RosNeft 22
25
0
10
20
30
Date
45%
4
30%
2
15%
DEC 15
OCT 15
AUG 15
JUN 15
APR 15
FEB 15
OCT 14
DEC 14
SHARE OF TOTAL DEALS (RHS)
Source: Bond Radar, Gazprombank estimates
RATINGS M/S/F
COUNTRY
CRNCY
VOLUME,
USD MLN
TENOR
COUPON
BHARAT PETROLEUM
-/Baa3/BBB-
INDIA
USD
496
10
4,0%
06.05.15
KUNLUN ENERGY
A+/A1/A
CHINA
USD
498
5
2,9%
06.05.15
KUNLUN ENERGY
A+/A1/A
CHINA
USD
495
10
3,8%
06.05.15
PT MEDCO ENERGI
NR
INDONESIA
SGD
75
3
5,9%
01.06.15
PETROBRAS
Ba2/BBB-/BBB-
BRAZIL
USD
2 500
100
6,9%
23.06.15
ECOPETROL
Ваа2/ВВВ/ВВВ
COLOMBIA
USD
1 500
11
5,4%
14.07.15
KOREA GAS
A+/Aa3/AA-
KOREA
USD
500
10
3,5%
16.07.15
RENAISSANCE SERVICES
NR
OMAN
USD
125
Perpetual
7,9%
22.07.15
PETROLEOS MEXICANOS
BBB+/A3/BBB+
MEXICO
USD
525
10
2,5%
A3/A-/A
CHINA
USD
500
5
3,5%
A3/A-/A
CHINA
USD
500
10
4,5%
NR
INDIA
USD
225
10
2,5%
AA-/Aa3/AA-
KOREA
USD
600
10
3,3%
23.07.15
0%
AUG 14
0
COMPANY
29.04.15
23.07.15
JUN 14
50
Source: companies, Gazprombank estimates
75%
APR 14
40
EM O&G latest deals
6
FEB 14
5.0
Novatek 22
60%
DEC 13
4.5
Novatek 21
8
OCT 13
4.0
Gazprom 25E
USD BLN
Research Department
3.5
Gazprom 21E
EM O&G primary market
PRIMARY O&G DEALS
3.0
Russia O&G eurobonds weekly top >5Y movers (Z-spreads to MS)
10
2.5
Source: companies, Bloomberg, Gazprombank estimates
Russia O&G eurobonds weekly top 3-5Y movers (Z-spreads to MS)
5
PEMEX 4.875
22
NVTKRM 22
GAZPRU 4.95
22
0
KZOKZ 21
EDCLLI 20
600
60%
0%
SOIAZ 23
700
80%
CHINA OILFIELD SERVICES
LIMITED
CHINA OILFIELD SERVICES
LIMITED
18.08.15
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES
22.09.15
KOREA NATIONAL OIL CORP
08.10.15
GAZPROM
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
RUSSIA
EUR
1 130
3
4,6%
19.11.15
PETROLEOS MEXICANOS
BBB+/A3/BBB+
MEXICO
CHF
613
5
1,5%
02.12.15
YACIMIENTOS
PETROLIFEROS FISCALES
-/Caa1/CCC
ARGENTINA
USD
100
3
8,9%
Source: Bond Radar, Bloomberg, Gazprombank. estimates
14
FEBRUARY 12, 2016
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
FIXED INCOME VALUATION
Russian oil and gas: local and E/C bonds universe
YIELD, %
13.5
13.0
RUB ZCurve Swap (NDF+CCS)
OFZ Curve
12.5
BashN-6
12.0
NOVATEK-4bo
GazpNeft-9
BashN-9
11.5
GazpNeft-10
NOVATEK-3bo
BashN-4
11.0
NOVATEK-2bo
Rosneft-10
BashN-8
Rosneft-09
PromNeftS-1bo
BashN-2
Gazprom-21bo
GazpNeft-8
Rosneft-08
NK Alliance-4 BashN-1
Rosneft-07
GazpCap-6
Rosneft-04
NKBashN-3
Alliance-2
Rosneft-05
GazpNeft-11
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0
DURATION, YEARS
8.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
● — YIELD TO MATURITY ▲ — YIELD TO PUT ■ — YIELD TO CALL BOND^ — SUBORDINATED
Russian oil and gas: USD eurobonds universe
YIELD, %
8.5
8.0
RosNft17
Gaz37
Lukoil20
Novtk21
TNK20
Gaz20
TNK18
7.0
Gaz19
Gaz18
Novtk16
6.5
6.0
Lukoil19
Gaz16NOV
TNK17
Gaz16MAY
TNK16
5.5
Lukoil18
5.0
Gaz15
Lukoil22
SibNft23
4.5
4.0
RosNft22
3.5
Lukoil17
Rus17
TrNft18
Rus20
2.5
Gaz21
Rus28
Rus23
Rus22
Rus30
Rus18
SibNft22
Gaz15N
Lukoil23
Alliance20
Novtk22
3.0
UST Curve
Gaz22 6.51
Gaz22 4.95
7.5
Rus19
2.0
1.5
DURATION, YEARS
1.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Research Department
15
FEBRUARY 12, 2016
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
Oil and gas: Russia vs. EM
11
Pemex44.1
Pemex44.2
YIELD, %
12
Pemex35.1
UST Curve
10
9
Pemex27.1
8
7
Gaz22 6.51
Pemex22.4
6
Gaz34 Gaz16NOV
5
Gaz22 4.95
Pemex23F 8.625
Pemex22F.1
Pemex22.5
Pemex21.2
Pemex23
Pemex243.5
Gaz28
Gaz20
Gaz19
Gaz21 Pemex22.3 Petrobras40
Gaz18 Pemex19
Pemex19F
Pemex18.4
Pemex20
Rus17
Petrobras41
Gaz16MAY
Pemex18.3
Petrobras20Petrobras21
Gaz37
Petrobras18 8.375
Petrobras18 5.875
Petrobras16
3.875
Petrobras17
4
3
Gaz15
Petrobras16 6.125
Gaz15N
Petrobras19
2
DURATION, YEARS
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Oil and gas: Russia vs. CIS
YIELD, %
10
9
UST Curve
RosNft17
8
Gaz34
Lukoil20
Alliance20
Gaz19GeoOilGas17
Lukoil17
KMG43
Novtk21
TNK20
Lukoil22
Novtk16
Gaz20
Gaz18
TNK18
Rus22
KMG44
Gaz16NOV
TNK17
Gaz16MAY
TNK16
Zhaik19N
KMG25
Gaz15
Rus30
Zhaik19
Rus20
Zhaik19N
7
6
5
4
Gaz22 6.51
Gaz22 4.95
Lukoil18
Lukoil19
SOCAR23 Gaz28
KMG23
SibNft23
3
Gaz15N
Novtk22
RosNft22 KTG17
TrNft18Rus17
KMG18
Lukoil23
Gaz21
Rus28
Rus23
Rus18
Rus19
2
DURATION, YEARS
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Research Department
16
FEBRUARY 12, 2016
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
Gazprom 19 – Petrobras 19
Source: Bloomberg, GPB
FEB-16
JAN-16
DEC-15
Rosneft 22 –Pemex 22.5
Petrobras 17 –Lukoil 17
LAST 49 AVG 246 MAX 629 MIN 34
640
NOV-15
OCT-15
FEB-15
FEB-16
JAN-16
DEC-15
NOV-15
OCT-15
SEP-15
AUG-15
JUL-15
JUN-15
MAY-15
APR-15
MAR-15
90
SEP-15
190
AUG-15
290
JUL-15
390
APR-15
490
MAR-15
590
FEB-15
LAST -855 AVG -264 MAX 201 MIN -990
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
-1000
-1200
JUN-15
690
MAY-15
Gazprom 19 – Pemex 18.4
LAST 554 AVG 280 MAX 969 MIN -103
1200
1000
540
800
440
600
340
400
240
200
140
0
FEB-16
JAN-16
DEC-15
Gazprom 37 –Russia 42
Rosneft 22 – Russia 22
200
NOV-15
OCT-15
SEP-15
AUG-15
JUL-15
JUN-15
MAY-15
APR-15
FEB-15
MAR-15
-200
FEB-16
JAN-16
DEC-15
NOV-15
OCT-15
SEP-15
AUG-15
JUL-15
JUN-15
MAY-15
APR-15
MAR-15
FEB-15
40
330
280
150
230
100
FEB-16
JAN-16
DEC-15
Rosneft 22 –Lukoil 23
Gazprom 25E – Gazprom 17E 5.136%
LAST 36 AVG 57 MAX 224 MIN -6
210
NOV-15
OCT-15
SEP-15
AUG-15
JUL-15
JUN-15
MAY-15
APR-15
FEB-15
FEB-16
JAN-16
DEC-15
NOV-15
OCT-15
SEP-15
AUG-15
JUL-15
JUN-15
MAY-15
APR-15
80
MAR-15
0
FEB-15
130
MAR-15
180
50
LAST 196 AVG 115 MAX 220 MIN -200
300
160
200
110
Research Department
FEB-16
JAN-16
DEC-15
NOV-15
OCT-15
SEP-15
AUG-15
JUL-15
JUN-15
MAY-15
APR-15
FEB-15
FEB-16
JAN-16
DEC-15
NOV-15
OCT-15
SEP-15
AUG-15
JUL-15
JUN-15
-200
MAY-15
-40
APR-15
-100
MAR-15
10
FEB-15
0
MAR-15
100
60
17
FEBRUARY 12, 2016
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
Rosneft 04 – OFZ 26206
FEB-16
JAN-16
DEC-15
NOVATEK 17R – Gazprom Capital 05
Gazprom Capital 04 – OFZ 26204
300
NOV-15
OCT-15
SEP-15
AUG-15
JUL-15
APR-15
MAR-15
FEB-15
FEB-16
NOV-15
JAN-16
-100
DEC-15
-100
OCT-15
0
SEP-15
0
AUG-15
100
JUL-15
100
JUN-15
200
MAY-15
200
APR-15
300
MAR-15
300
FEB-15
LAST 118 AVG 109 MAX 329 MIN -175
400
JUN-15
400
MAY-15
Gazprom Neft 12– OFZ 26206
480
320
200
160
100
FEB-16
JAN-16
DEC-15
Bashneft 06 –Gazprom Neft 12
Gazprom Neft 12 – Rosneft 04
LAST -25 AVG 23 MAX 276 MIN -249
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
NOV-15
OCT-15
SEP-15
AUG-15
JUL-15
JUN-15
MAY-15
APR-15
FEB-15
FEB-16
JAN-16
DEC-15
NOV-15
OCT-15
SEP-15
AUG-15
JUL-15
JUN-15
-480
MAY-15
-200
APR-15
-320
MAR-15
-100
FEB-15
-160
MAR-15
0
0
LAST -32 AVG -5 MAX 236 MIN -201
300
200
100
0
-100
Research Department
FEB-16
JAN-16
DEC-15
NOV-15
OCT-15
SEP-15
AUG-15
JUL-15
JUN-15
MAY-15
APR-15
MAR-15
FEB-15
FEB-16
JAN-16
DEC-15
NOV-15
OCT-15
SEP-15
AUG-15
JUL-15
JUN-15
MAY-15
APR-15
MAR-15
FEB-15
-200
18
FEBRUARY 12, 2016
INDICATIVE
ISSUE VOLUME
ISSUE
DUR
CLOSE PRICE
CHG, BPS
Z-SPD (SWAP)
CHG, BPS
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
DATES
CPN
AMT. OUTST.
CCY
RATING
PLACEMENT
PUT/CALL
MATURITY
DOMESTIC BONDS
BashNeft-1
97.90
+2
-161
-2
0.8
15,000
RUB
8.35
Dec 22, 2009
Dec 13, 2016
-/Ba1/BB+
BashNeft-2
97.77
-223
-145
+286
0.8
15,000
RUB
8.35
Dec 22, 2009
Dec 13, 2016
-/Ba1/BB+
BashNeft-3
100.00
0.8
20,000
RUB
8.35
Dec 22, 2009
Dec 13, 2016
-/Ba1/BB+
5,000
RUB
12.0
May 22, 2015
May 9, 2025
-/Ba1/BB+
-433
BashNeft-3bo
BashNeft-4
100.00
0.0
10,000
RUB
16.0
Feb 17, 2012
Feb 12, 2016
Feb 4, 2022
-/Ba1/BB+
BashNeft-4bo
100.00
196
3.9
5,000
RUB
12.0
Jun 1, 2015
May 25, 2020
May 19, 2025
-/Ba1/BB+
BashNeft-5bo
98.50
62
2.6
10,000
RUB
10.7
May 26, 2014
Nov 19, 2018
May 13, 2024
-/Ba1/BB+
BashNeft-6
96.74
+24
-85
-11
1.9
10,000
RUB
8.65
Feb 12, 2013
Feb 6, 2018
Jan 31, 2023
-/Ba1/BB+
BashNeft-7
92.40
-60
101
+23
3.4
10,000
RUB
8.85
Feb 12, 2013
Feb 4, 2020
Jan 31, 2023
-/Ba1/BB+
BashNeft-7bo
100.00
4.4
5,000
RUB
12.1
Jun 16, 2015
Jun 8, 2021
Jun 3, 2025
-/Ba1/BB+
BashNeft-8
95.99
-
-42
-
1.8
5,000
RUB
8.65
Feb 12, 2013
Feb 6, 2018
Jan 31, 2023
-/Ba1/BB+
BashNeft-9
91.00
-200
151
+73
3.4
5,000
RUB
8.85
Feb 12, 2013
Feb 4, 2020
Jan 31, 2023
-/Ba1/BB+
BK Eurasia
98.60
-
-210
+3
0.4
5,000
RUB
8.4
Jun 29, 2011
Jun 27, 2016
Jun 20, 2018
-/-/BB
Gazprom Capital-4
94.15
-427
-48
+254
1.8
5,000
RUB
7.55
Feb 21, 2013
Feb 15, 2018
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom Capital-5
96.72
-2
-113
+8
1.0
10,000
RUB
7.55
Feb 21, 2013
Feb 16, 2017
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom Capital-6
99.93
+10
-631
-113
0.0
15,000
RUB
7.5
Feb 21, 2013
Feb 18, 2016
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom neft-10
96.18
+8
-30
-4
1.9
10,000
RUB
8.9
Feb 8, 2011
Feb 5, 2018
Jan 26, 2021
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom neft-11
100.13
0.4
10,000
RUB
Feb 7, 2012
Feb 2, 2016
Jan 25, 2022
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom neft-12
96.39
+34
-75
-21
1.7
10,000
RUB
8.5
Dec 5, 2012
Nov 29, 2017
Nov 23, 2022
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom neft-4
95.17
+6
-57
-3
2.0
10,000
RUB
8.2
Apr 21, 2009
Apr 16, 2018
Apr 9, 2019
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom neft-9
99.94
-
-1,001
-
0.0
10,000
RUB
Feb 8, 2011
Feb 8, 2016
Jan 26, 2021
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom-19bo (CPI)
100.00
15,000
RUB
16.6
Nov 27, 2013
Oct 21, 2043
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom-20bo (CPI)
100.00
15,000
RUB
16.6
Nov 27, 2013
Oct 21, 2043
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Geotech Seismorazvedka-1
69.21
-79
6,653
+454
0.7
3,000
RUB
10.5
Oct 23, 2013
Oct 19, 2016
Oct 17, 2018
B/-/-
NK Alliance-4
77.50
-248
8,314
+1711
0.3
5,000
RUB
8.85
Jun 14, 2011
Jun 10, 2016
Jun 1, 2021
-/-/-
NK Alliance-6
70.01
-699
11,992
+4381
0.3
7,000
RUB
8.85
Jun 17, 2011
Jun 15, 2016
Jun 4, 2021
-/-/-
NPK-1
100.00
-
96
-
0.4
500
RUB
15.0
Dec 30, 2014
Jun 28, 2016
Dec 26, 2017
-/-/-
Rosneft-04
96.27
-33
-51
+25
1.6
10,000
RUB
8.6
Oct 29, 2012
Oct 23, 2017
Oct 17, 2022
BB+/Ba1/-
Rosneft-05
96.27
-23
-51
+18
1.6
10,000
RUB
8.6
Oct 29, 2012
Oct 23, 2017
Oct 17, 2022
BB+/Ba1/-
Rosneft-06
92.70
-420
54
+226
2.1
10,000
RUB
7.95
Jun 11, 2013
Jun 5, 2018
May 30, 2023
BB+/Ba1/-
Rosneft-07
95.00
+35
-57
-19
1.9
15,000
RUB
8.0
Mar 22, 2013
Mar 16, 2018
Mar 10, 2023
BB+/Ba1/-
Rosneft-08
93.11
-154
56
+93
1.9
15,000
RUB
8.0
Mar 22, 2013
Mar 16, 2018
Mar 10, 2023
BB+/Ba1/-
Rosneft-09
93.70
-
-2
+0
2.1
15,000
RUB
7.95
Jun 11, 2013
Jun 5, 2018
May 30, 2023
BB+/Ba1/-
Rosneft-10
93.90
-600
-13
+312
2.1
15,000
RUB
7.95
Jun 11, 2013
Jun 5, 2018
May 30, 2023
BB+/Ba1/-
Research Department
-2
-640
-282
219
-203
19
FEBRUARY 12, 2016
INDICATIVE
ISSUE VOLUME
ISSUE
DUR
CLOSE PRICE
CHG, BPS
Z-SPD (SWAP)
CHG, BPS
Transneft-1
101.00
-
-657
-
Transneft-2
100.00
-
Transneft-3
101.50
-
76
-
Transneft-3bo
99.90
-
-329
-5
Transneft-4bo
100.03
-18
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
DATES
CPN
AMT. OUTST.
CCY
35,000
RUB
35,000
RUB
3.1
65,000
0.2
RATING
PLACEMENT
PUT/CALL
MATURITY
11.5
May 25, 2009
May 16, 2016
May 13, 2019
BB+/Ba1/-
12.0
Oct 13, 2009
Oct 3, 2017
Oct 1, 2019
BB+/Ba1/-
RUB
12.05
Sep 30, 2009
Sep 18, 2019
BB+/Ba1/-
25,000
RUB
11.0
Oct 22, 2014
Apr 20, 2016
Oct 9, 2024
BB+/Ba1/-
1.4
17,000
RUB
11.5
Jul 16, 2015
Jan 12, 2017
Jul 3, 2025
BB+/Ba1/-
-/-/-
0.3
RUSSIA EUROBONDS
Alliance Oil 15
59.73
+274
3,467
-204
2.1
350
USD
10.0
Mar 11, 2010
Mar 11, 2019
Alliance Oil 20
57.91
+109
2,221
-30
3.4
500
USD
7.0
Apr 24, 2013
May 4, 2020
-/-/-
Borets 18
81.40
+41
1,592
+2
2.3
420
USD
7.625
Sep 11, 2013
Sep 26, 2018
BB-/B1/-
EDC 20
89.66
+34
689
+11
3.7
600
USD
4.875
Apr 11, 2013
Apr 17, 2020
BB/-/BB
Gazprom 16 MAY
100.65
-7
196
-12
0.3
1,000
USD
4.95
Nov 17, 2011
May 23, 2016
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 16 NOV
102.40
-5
245
-5
0.7
1,350
USD
6.212
Nov 22, 2006
Nov 22, 2016
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 17E 3.755
100.58
+9
300
-14
1.0
1,400
EUR
3.755
Jul 11, 2012
Mar 15, 2017
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 17E 5.136
101.95
-1
312
-7
1.0
500
EUR
5.136
Nov 22, 2006
Mar 22, 2017
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 17E.NOV
103.22
-4
356
-1
1.7
500
EUR
5.44
Mar 7, 2007
Nov 2, 2017
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 18
106.87
+16
396
-2
2.0
1,100
USD
8.146
Apr 11, 2008
Apr 11, 2018
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 18 EUR
100.70
-9
447
+3
2.5
1,000
EUR
4.625
Oct 8, 2015
Oct 15, 2018
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 18E 3.7
99.20
-2
418
+1
2.3
900
EUR
3.7
Jul 17, 2013
Jul 25, 2018
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 18E 6.605
104.78
-7
419
-0
1.9
1,200
EUR
6.605
Oct 25, 2007
Feb 13, 2018
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 19
110.89
-2
464
+14
2.8
2,250
USD
9.25
Apr 23, 2009
Apr 23, 2019
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 19C
96.09
-28
467
+22
3.5
500
CHF
2.85
Oct 16, 2013
Oct 25, 2019
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 20
93.35
-4
483
+22
3.7
800
USD
3.85
Jan 30, 2013
Feb 6, 2020
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 20E
94.67
+3
489
+1
3.8
1,000
EUR
3.389
Mar 13, 2013
Mar 20, 2020
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 20P
93.71
-146
610
+61
4.0
500
GBP
5.338
Sep 18, 2013
Sep 25, 2020
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 21
99.09
-20
520
+25
4.3
600
USD
5.999
Nov 17, 2011
Jan 23, 2021
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 21E
93.90
+21
495
-4
4.5
750
EUR
3.6
Feb 19, 2014
Feb 26, 2021
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 22 4.95
92.99
-28
516
+29
5.5
1,000
USD
4.95
Jul 11, 2012
Jul 19, 2022
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 22 6.51
100.04
-16
540
+26
5.0
1,300
USD
6.51
Mar 7, 2007
Mar 7, 2022
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 25E
93.80
+18
478
+1
7.3
500
EUR
4.364
Mar 13, 2013
Mar 21, 2025
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 28
83.88
-76
544
+36
8.9
900
USD
4.95
Jan 30, 2013
Feb 6, 2028
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 34
109.59
-191
600
+41
9.6
1,200
USD
8.625
Apr 28, 2004
Apr 28, 2034
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Gazprom 37
99.17
-161
566
+38
11.1
1,250
USD
7.288
Aug 16, 2007
Aug 16, 2037
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
Lukoil 17
104.05
-1
220
-3
1.3
500
USD
6.356
Jun 7, 2007
Jun 7, 2017
BBB-/Ba1/BBB-
Lukoil 18
98.14
+27
353
-0
2.1
1,500
USD
3.416
Apr 17, 2013
Apr 24, 2018
BBB-/Ba1/BBB-
Lukoil 19
106.89
+10
430
+14
3.3
600
USD
7.25
Nov 5, 2009
Nov 5, 2019
BBB-/Ba1/BBB-
Research Department
20
FEBRUARY 12, 2016
INDICATIVE
ISSUE VOLUME
ISSUE
DUR
CLOSE PRICE
CHG, BPS
Z-SPD (SWAP)
CHG, BPS
Lukoil 20
102.17
+12
460
+17
Lukoil 22
102.34
-7
508
+24
Lukoil 23
89.84
-14
514
Novatek 17R
96.36
+5
Novatek 21
101.15
Novatek 22
RosNeft 17
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
DATES
CPN
RATING
AMT. OUTST.
CCY
PLACEMENT
PUT/CALL
MATURITY
4.1
1,000
USD
6.125
Nov 9, 2010
Nov 9, 2020
BBB-/Ba1/BBB-
5.2
500
USD
6.656
Jun 7, 2007
Jun 7, 2022
BBB-/Ba1/BBB-
+28
6.0
1,500
USD
4.563
Apr 17, 2013
Apr 24, 2023
BBB-/Ba1/BBB-
-49
+3
1.0
14,000
RUB
7.75
Feb 12, 2013
Feb 21, 2017
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
+69
532
+4
4.3
650
USD
6.604
Feb 3, 2011
Feb 3, 2021
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
88.84
+87
530
+8
5.8
1,000
USD
4.422
Dec 6, 2012
Dec 13, 2022
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
99.30
+21
274
-11
1.3
1,000
USD
3.149
Nov 29, 2012
Jun 3, 2017
BB+/Ba1/-
RosNeft 22
87.28
-3
558
+25
5.5
2,000
USD
4.199
Nov 29, 2012
Jun 3, 2022
BB+/Ba1/-
SibNeft 18E
96.22
-30
493
+17
2.1
750
EUR
2.933
Apr 18, 2013
Apr 26, 2018
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
SibNeft 22
87.00
+8
571
+23
5.6
1,500
USD
4.375
Sep 10, 2012
Sep 19, 2022
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
SibNeft 23
92.89
+52
597
+16
6.2
1,500
USD
6.0
Nov 20, 2013
Nov 27, 2023
BB+/Ba1/BBB-
TNK 16
101.97
-10
229
-2
0.4
1,000
USD
7.5
Jul 18, 2006
Jul 18, 2016
BB+/Ba1/-
TNK 17
103.00
+19
288
-19
1.0
800
USD
6.625
Mar 19, 2007
Mar 20, 2017
BB+/Ba1/-
TNK 18
105.82
-22
409
+16
1.9
1,100
USD
7.875
Oct 10, 2007
Mar 13, 2018
BB+/Ba1/-
TNK 20
104.87
+24
494
+11
3.5
500
USD
7.25
Feb 2, 2010
Feb 2, 2020
BB+/Ba1/-
TransNeft 18
109.49
-6
382
+11
2.3
1,050
USD
8.7
Aug 7, 2008
Aug 7, 2018
BB+/Ba1/-
102.54
-18
75
-3
0.5
850
EUR
6.375
Jul 22, 2004
Aug 5, 2016
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
88
USD
10.61
Jul 20, 1999
Aug 15, 2017
A/Baa1/A+
1,000
EUR
5.5
Sep 30, 2009
Jan 9, 2017
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
200
EUR
5.779
Aug 6, 2009
Nov 6, 2017
-/Baa1/BBB+
PEERS COMPARISON
Mexican Petroleum 16EF
Mexican Petroleum 17.1
Mexican Petroleum 17E 5.5
103.55
-30
105
+18
0.9
Mexican Petroleum 17E 5.779
Mexican Petroleum 17F.2
125.14
145
7.9
88
USD
10.61
Aug 15, 1999
Aug 15, 2017
A/Baa1/A+
115.73
262
2.7
188
USD
9.15
Dec 4, 1998
Nov 15, 2018
A/Baa1/A+
124.59
29
7.2
188
USD
9.15
Aug 15, 1999
Nov 15, 2018
A/Baa1/A+
111.76
265
2.0
340
USD
9.25
Sep 30, 2005
Mar 30, 2018
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
102.67
+12
357
+2
1.9
2,484
USD
5.75
Sep 1, 2008
Mar 1, 2018
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 19
95.43
+32
401
+6
2.8
500
USD
3.125
Jan 15, 2014
Jan 23, 2019
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 19C
101.03
-35
294
+23
3.0
300
CHF
2.5
Mar 12, 2012
Apr 10, 2019
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 19F
107.83
+40
448
+1
2.8
1,937
USD
8.0
May 3, 2009
May 3, 2019
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
101.70
+29
460
+11
3.6
991
USD
6.0
Aug 30, 2010
Mar 5, 2020
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 20C
95.50
-49
312
+21
4.7
600
CHF
1.5
Nov 19, 2015
Dec 8, 2020
BBB+/A3/BBB+
107.62
4.6
2,393
USD
5.5
Jul 13, 2010
Jan 21, 2021
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
98.94
4.4
2,962
USD
5.5
Jul 21, 2010
Jan 21, 2021
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
99.75
36
3.9
280
USD
2.0
Jun 26, 2012
Dec 20, 2022
-/-/-
100.21
37
3.6
280
USD
1.95
Jun 28, 2012
Dec 20, 2022
-/-/-
Research Department
231
+83
473
+1
21
FEBRUARY 12, 2016
INDICATIVE
ISSUE VOLUME
ISSUE
DUR
CLOSE PRICE
CHG, BPS
Z-SPD (SWAP)
+35
512
CHG, BPS
50
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
DATES
CPN
RATING
AMT. OUTST.
CCY
PLACEMENT
PUT/CALL
MATURITY
3.6
280
USD
1.7
Jul 17, 2012
Dec 20, 2022
-/-/-
5.2
2,091
USD
4.875
Jul 23, 2012
Jan 24, 2022
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
98.85
93.42
Mexican Petroleum 22F.1
109.60
4.7
970
USD
8.625
Feb 1, 2003
Feb 1, 2022
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 22P
114.40
-71
448
+35
5.0
350
GBP
8.25
May 20, 2009
Jun 2, 2022
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 23 3.5
90.50
-
363
-
6.2
2,100
USD
3.5
Jan 23, 2013
Jan 30, 2023
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 23F 8.625
114.70
438
6.1
225
USD
8.625
Dec 1, 2005
Dec 1, 2023
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
98.75
311
6.7
1,000
USD
4.875
Jul 11, 2013
Jan 18, 2024
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
Mexican Petroleum 25E
104.56
7.0
1,000
EUR
5.5
Feb 15, 2005
Feb 24, 2025
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
115.11
543
7.5
476
USD
9.5
Sep 18, 1997
Sep 15, 2027
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
124.00
430
7.9
790
USD
9.5
Sep 15, 2005
Sep 15, 2027
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
10.4
2,291
USD
6.625
Dec 15, 2005
Jun 15, 2035
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
11.7
1,000
USD
6.625
Jun 15, 2010
Jun 15, 2035
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
+16
522
-85
-14
442
627
+15
87.05
110.44
+25
85.21
+11
635
+22
11.0
491
USD
6.625
Dec 15, 2008
Jun 15, 2038
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
83.94
-5
625
+23
11.5
2,499
USD
6.5
Jun 2, 2011
Jun 2, 2041
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
73.61
-22
606
+25
12.4
1,748
USD
5.5
Jun 26, 2012
Jun 27, 2044
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
73.17
+6
611
+22
12.4
1,000
USD
5.5
Jun 26, 2012
Jun 27, 2044
-/Baa1/BBB+
83.10
-14
610
+24
12.2
3,000
USD
6.375
Jan 15, 2014
Jan 23, 2045
BBB+/Baa1/BBB+
Petrobras 16 6.125
100.38
+3
498
-8
0.6
BB/Ba3/BB+
343
Petrobras 16Y
899
USD
6.125
Sep 29, 2006
Oct 6, 2016
35,000
JPY
2.15
Sep 27, 2006
Sep 27, 2016
-/Ba3/BB+
Petrobras 17
95.26
-14
793
+37
1.0
1,750
USD
3.5
Feb 1, 2012
Feb 6, 2017
BB/Ba3/BB+
Petrobras 18 5.875
88.31
+57
1,175
-14
1.9
1,750
USD
5.875
Oct 29, 2007
Mar 1, 2018
BB/Ba3/BB+
Petrobras 18 8.375
92.67
-15
1,069
+25
2.5
750
USD
8.375
Dec 3, 2003
Dec 10, 2018
BB/Ba3/BB+
Petrobras 18E 2.75
82.07
+1
1,419
+17
1.9
1,500
EUR
2.75
Jan 7, 2014
Jan 15, 2018
BB/Ba3/BB+
Petrobras 18E 4,875
84.01
-5
1,450
+17
1.9
1,250
EUR
4.875
Dec 1, 2011
Mar 7, 2018
BB/Ba3/BB+
Petrobras 19
85.03
-153
1,320
+90
2.7
2,750
USD
7.875
Feb 4, 2009
Mar 15, 2019
BB/Ba3/BB+
Petrobras 19E
73.16
-2
1,463
+12
2.9
1,300
EUR
3.25
Sep 24, 2012
Apr 1, 2019
BB/Ba3/BB+
Petrobras 20
75.49
-206
1,318
+106
3.5
2,500
USD
5.75
Oct 23, 2009
Jan 20, 2020
BB/Ba3/BB+
Petrobras 21
71.49
-247
1,244
+109
4.3
5,250
USD
5.375
Jan 20, 2011
Jan 27, 2021
BB/Ba3/BB+
Petrobras 21E
67.07
-30
1,326
+17
4.5
750
EUR
3.75
Jan 7, 2014
Jan 14, 2021
BB/Ba3/BB+
Petrobras 22E
70.70
-20
1,304
+11
4.7
600
EUR
5.875
Dec 1, 2011
Mar 7, 2022
BB/Ba3/BB+
Petrobras 23E
65.01
+1
1,102
+5
6.3
700
EUR
4.25
Sep 24, 2012
Oct 2, 2023
BB/Ba3/BB+
Petrobras 25E
64.96
+6
1,072
+4
7.0
800
EUR
4.75
Jan 7, 2014
Jan 14, 2025
BB/Ba3/BB+
Petrobras 26P
61.93
-144
1,170
+59
7.3
700
GBP
6.25
Dec 5, 2011
Dec 14, 2026
BB/Ba3/BB+
Petrobras 29P
56.95
-82
1,052
+41
8.4
450
GBP
5.375
Sep 24, 2012
Oct 1, 2029
BB/Ba3/BB+
Petrobras 34P
60.49
-78
1,071
+38
8.9
600
GBP
6.625
Jan 7, 2014
Jan 16, 2034
BB/Ba3/BB+
Research Department
22
FEBRUARY 12, 2016
INDICATIVE
ISSUE VOLUME
ISSUE
DUR
CLOSE PRICE
CHG, BPS
Z-SPD (SWAP)
CHG, BPS
Petrobras 40
60.60
-239
1,023
+69
Petrobras 41
59.96
-240
1,010
+69
KazMunaiGaz 18
105.06
-128
600
KazMunaiGaz 20
98.37
-179
651
KazMunaiGaz 21
94.70
-262
KazMunaiGaz 23
85.03
-224
KazMunaiGaz 25
90.24
KazMunaiGaz 43
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
DATES
CPN
RATING
AMT. OUTST.
CCY
PLACEMENT
PUT/CALL
MATURITY
9.0
1,500
USD
6.875
Oct 23, 2009
Jan 20, 2040
BB/Ba3/BB+
9.1
2,250
USD
6.75
Jan 20, 2011
Jan 27, 2041
BB/Ba3/BB+
+65
2.2
1,600
USD
9.125
Jul 2, 2008
Jul 2, 2018
BB+/Baa3/BBB
+69
3.6
1,500
USD
7.0
May 5, 2010
May 5, 2020
BB+/Baa3/BBB
661
+85
4.3
1,250
USD
6.375
Nov 10, 2010
Apr 9, 2021
BB+/Baa3/BBB
588
+69
6.1
1,000
USD
4.4
Apr 24, 2013
Apr 30, 2023
BB+/Baa3/BBB
-72
492
+37
7.3
500
USD
4.875
Oct 31, 2014
May 7, 2025
BB+/Baa3/BBB
78.48
-151
587
+39
12.2
2,000
USD
5.75
Apr 24, 2013
Apr 30, 2043
BB+/Baa3/BBB
KazMunaiGaz 44
80.53
-127
592
+36
12.2
1,000
USD
6.0
Oct 31, 2014
Nov 7, 2044
BB+/Baa3/BBB
KazTransGaz 17
101.44
-6
418
+4
1.2
600
USD
6.375
May 14, 2007
May 14, 2017
BB+/Baa3/BBB-
Zhaikmunai 19 6.375
79.27
+515
1,445
-238
2.7
400
USD
6.375
Feb 10, 2014
Feb 14, 2019
B/B2/-
Zhaikmunai 19 7.125
79.24
+509
1,362
-192
3.2
560
USD
7.125
Nov 2, 2012
Nov 13, 2019
B/B2/-
Georgian OGC 17
99.42
-16
639
+18
1.2
250
USD
6.875
May 9, 2012
May 16, 2017
B+/-/BB-
SOCAR 17
101.59
-33
300
+32
1.0
500
USD
5.45
Feb 2, 2012
Feb 9, 2017
BB/Ba1/BBB-
SOCAR 23
81.48
+146
707
-6
5.8
1,000
USD
4.75
Mar 1, 2013
Mar 13, 2023
BB/Ba1/BBB-
CIS EUROBONDS
Research Department
23
Feb 14, 2017
FEBRUARY 12, 2016
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
EQUITY RELATIVE PERFORMANCE
Gazprom ADR vs. NOVATEK GDR, 2 months perf., %
LUKOIL ADR vs. Rosneft GDR, 2 months perf., %
125
125
120
120
115
115
110
110
105
105
100
100
95
90
95
15-Jan
22-Jan
29-Jan
NVTK LI
5-Feb
15-Jan
OGZD LI
22-Jan
29-Jan
5-Feb
LKOD LI
Source: Bloomberg (as of February 11)
ROSN LI
Tatneft ADR vs. Surgutneftegas ADR, 2 months perf., %
Tatneft, SurgutNG and Bashneft pref shares, 2 months perf., %
125
120
120
115
115
110
110
105
105
100
100
95
15-Jan
22-Jan
29-Jan
ATAD LI
95
5-Feb
15-Jan
SGGD LI
22-Jan
TATNP RX
29-Jan
5-Feb
SNGS RX
BANE RX
Bashneft shares vs. Gazprom Neft shares, 2 months perf., %
MICEX Index vs. MICEX O&G Index, 2 months perf., %
113
112
111
110
109
108
107
106
105
104
103
102
101
100
99
97
98
15-Jan
22-Jan
BANE RX
29-Jan
5-Feb
15-Jan
SIBN RX
MICEX
Research Department
22-Jan
29-Jan
5-Feb
MICEX OIL&GAS
24
FEBRUARY 12, 2016
OIL AND GAS WEEKLY
CALENDAR OF EVENTS
25 February
NOVATEK: 2015 IFRS results
2015
26 February
Gazprom neft: 2015 IFRS results
2015
3 March
LUKOIL: 2015 US GAAP results
2015
March
SIBUR: 2015 IFRS results
2015
March
Bashneft: 2015 IFRS results
2015
30 March
Rosneft: 2015 IFRS results
2015
31 March
EDC: 2015 US GAAP results
2015
31 March
Deadline for 2015 RAS results submission
2015
Transneft: 2015 IFRS results
2015
Surgutneftegas: 2015 IFRS results
2015
April
30 April
Research Department
25
HQ: 16/1 Nametkina St., Moscow 117420, Russia. Office: 7 Koroviy val St.
Research Department
+7 (495) 983 18 00
EQUITY SALES
FIXED INCOME SALES
+7 (495) 988 23 75
+7 (495) 983 18 80
EQUITY TRADING
FIXED INCOME TRADING
+7 (495) 988 24 10
+7 (499) 271 91 04
Copyright © 2003-2016. Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company). All rights reserved
This report has been prepared by the analysts of Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company) (hereinafter — Gazprombank) and is based on information obtained from public sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as
necessarily being accurate. With the exception of information directly pertaining to Gazprombank, Gazprombank shall not be liable for the accuracy or completeness of any information shown herein. All opinions and judgments
herein represent solely analysts’ personal opinion regarding the events and situations described and analyzed in this report. They should not be regarded as Gazprombank’s position and are subject to change without notice,
also in connection with new corporate or market events that may transpire. Gazprombank shall be under no obligation to update, amend this report or otherwise notify anyone of any such changes. The financial instruments
mentioned herein may be unsuitable for certain categories of investors. This report should not be the only basis used when adopting an investment decision. Investors should make investment decisions at their own discretion,
inviting independent consultants, if necessary, for their specific interests and objectives. The authors shall not be liable for any consequences or loss that might result from the use of this report. Any information contained herein
or in the appendices hereto shall not be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or as any investment advertisement, unless otherwise expressly stated herein or in the appendices hereto.
Redistribution or reproduction of this report, wholly or in part, is prohibited without prior written permission from Gazprombank.
For residents of Hong Kong: Research which relates to “securities” (as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong)) is issued in Hong Kong by, or on behalf of, GPB Financial
Services Hong Kong Limited (GPBFSHK), which takes responsibility for that content. Information in this report shall not be construed to imply any relationship, advisory or otherwise, between GPBFSHK and the recipient or user
of the report unless expressly agreed by GPBFSHK. GPBFSHK is not acting nor should it be deemed to be acting, as a “fiduciary” or as an “investment manager” or “investment advisor” to any recipient or user of this
information unless expressly agreed by GPBFSHK. GPBFSHK is regulated by Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Please contact [Mr. Michael Hammond (+852 3101 7782) or Mr. Joseph Chu (+852 3101 7133)] at
GPBFSHK if you have any queries on or any matters arising from or in connection with this report.

OIL AND GAS WEEKLY

Transcription

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