M14324_Marche´s e´mergents VA

Satellite
Emerging markets in
Asia-Pacific
What outlook for satellite?
M14324IN3 – December 2014
This report is part of our Satellite series which in 2014 includes:
- four reports in Word, with an executive summary in PowerPoint
- preferred access to our Satellite experts
Author: Maxime BAUDRY, Co-Manager of the Satellite-Aerospace Business Unit
A Director of research and studies, Maxime joined IDATE in April 2006. His main areas of
endeavour are the satellite industry, along with the telecommunications services market and
operator strategies.
Before coming to IDATE, Maxime worked for two years for Aon Explorer, a strategic consulting firm
specialised in the space industry. His work there was devoted primarily to industrial analysis of
satellite telecommunications for space agencies and the sector’s equipment providers.
Maxime holds a Masters degree in Technology & Management (Ecole Centrale de Paris), and is a
graduate of the Ecole Multinationale des Affaires/Multinational Business school (E.S.C Bordeaux &
Fachhochschule Münster’s ERASMUS programme).
[email protected]
Contributor
Alexandre JOLIN, Senior Consultant
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Emerging markets in Asia-Pacific: what outlook for satellite?
Table of contents
1.
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................ 7
2.
Methodology & definitions ............................................................................................. 9
2.1.
IDATE’s general methodology ........................................................................................................................ 9
2.2.
Methodology specific to this report.............................................................................................................. 10
3.
The region’s fixed broadband market .......................................................................... 11
3.1.
A fast-growing market ................................................................................................................................... 11
3.2.
Selective broadband coverage...................................................................................................................... 13
3.3.
Asia still the world’s biggest FTTH/B base .................................................................................................. 14
3.4.
Fixed broadband products still expensive ................................................................................................... 15
4.
The region’s mobile telecoms market.......................................................................... 17
4.1.
Market status .................................................................................................................................................. 17
4.2.
LTE rollouts progressing quickly ................................................................................................................. 20
4.3.
Coverage still low in less developed countries ........................................................................................... 21
4.4.
Mobile product pricing................................................................................................................................... 22
4.4.1. Mobile products ................................................................................................................................................ 22
4.4.2. LTE plans ......................................................................................................................................................... 23
5.
The TV market ............................................................................................................... 25
5.1.
Market status .................................................................................................................................................. 25
5.1.1. Asia-Pacific: biggest number of viewers in the world........................................................................................ 25
5.1.2. TV access in Asia-Pacific ................................................................................................................................. 26
5.1.3. Television revenue in Asia-Pacific .................................................................................................................... 27
5.2.
Digital TV in Asia-Pacific ............................................................................................................................... 28
5.2.1. Digital TV access in Asia-Pacific ...................................................................................................................... 28
5.2.2. DTT rollouts ...................................................................................................................................................... 29
5.2.3. Pay-TV market development ............................................................................................................................ 31
5.3.
Is satellite TV developing? ............................................................................................................................ 32
6.
Major trends................................................................................................................... 34
6.1.
Main telecommunications market trends ..................................................................................................... 34
6.1.1.
6.1.2.
6.1.3.
6.1.4.
6.1.5.
6.1.6.
6.1.7.
Launch of national satellites ............................................................................................................................. 34
Satellite being used by government programmes to reduce the digital divide .................................................. 34
A very competitive satellite market ................................................................................................................... 35
Fast growing demand for international and regional connectivity ..................................................................... 37
Strong increase in CAPEX ............................................................................................................................... 41
Different regulatory practices ........................................................................................................................... 44
Multi-criteria tiering to minimise churn .............................................................................................................. 45
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Emerging markets in Asia-Pacific: what outlook for satellite?
6.2.
Core TV market trends ................................................................................................................................... 46
6.2.1.
6.2.2.
6.2.3.
6.2.4.
HDTV development .......................................................................................................................................... 46
Development of IPTV ....................................................................................................................................... 48
The OTT video boom ....................................................................................................................................... 48
Considerable potential for satellite TV .............................................................................................................. 51
7.
Regional opportunities for satellite.............................................................................. 53
7.1.
In the broadband market ............................................................................................................................... 53
7.1.1. Action plans to reduce the digital divide will be major growth booster .............................................................. 53
7.1.2. Market forecasts up to 2018 ............................................................................................................................. 53
7.2.
In the TV market ............................................................................................................................................. 54
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Emerging markets in Asia-Pacific: what outlook for satellite?
Tables & Figures
Table 1:
Table 2:
Table 3:
Table 4:
Table 5:
Table 6:
Table 7:
Table 8:
Table 9:
Table 10:
Table 11:
Top 10 superfast broadband markets, and their share of the APAC market at the end of 2013 .............. 15
Pricing for a selection of FTTx plans, at the end of 2013 ......................................................................... 16
Mobile subscriber numbers in emerging APAC countries, at the end of 2013 ......................................... 20
LTE network coverage and bands used, YE 2013 ................................................................................... 21
LTE plan pricing, in July 2014 .................................................................................................................. 23
A selection of operators’ LTE plans compared ........................................................................................ 24
Analogue broadcasting switchoff deadlines in APAC countries ............................................................... 30
Top Asian operators and their regional capacity ...................................................................................... 35
Main targets set by Indonesia’s national broadband plan ........................................................................ 42
Mobile subscriber churn in a selection of emerging countries in Asia ...................................................... 45
Example of granular pricing ..................................................................................................................... 46
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Map of the countries covered by this report ............................................................................................. 10
Broadband subscriber growth in Asia-Pacific, 2014-2018........................................................................ 11
Growth of broadband subscribers in APAC’s top 10 emerging countries, 2009-2018 ............................. 12
Map of fixed broadband penetration in Asia-Pacific, at the end of 2013 .................................................. 13
Percentage of the population covered by fixed broadband, at the end of 2013 ....................................... 13
Breakdown of broadband and superfast broadband subscribers in the APAC region by access
technology, at the end of 2013................................................................................................................. 14
Map of fixed broadband sub-basket value, in 2012 ................................................................................. 15
Change in mobile subscriber distribution by technology in Asia-Pacific, 2008-2018................................ 17
Mobile subscriber breakdown by technology Asia-Pacific, at the end of 2013 ......................................... 18
Map of mobile penetration in Asia-Pacific, at the end of 2013 ................................................................. 18
Breakdown of pre- and post-paid mobile subscribers in Asia-Pacific, by country, at the end of 2013 ..... 19
Map of the mobile consumption sub-basket, in 2012 ............................................................................... 22
Map of linear TV penetration in APAC households at the end of 2013 .................................................... 25
Map of TV ownership levels amongst Indian households, in the first half of 2013 ................................... 26
Breakdown of the main broadcasting network used by APAC households to access TV programming,
2010-2014................................................................................................................................................ 26
Breakdown of the main broadcasting network used by households in a selection of APAC countries to
access linear TV programming, at the end of 2013 ................................................................................. 27
Breakdown of linear TV revenue sources in emerging APAC markets (excluding Australia, South Korea,
Japan and New Zealand) in 2013 ............................................................................................................ 28
Map of digital TV penetration in Asia-Pacific, at the end of 2013 ............................................................. 29
Map of DTT technologies, in 2013 ........................................................................................................... 30
Map of pay-TV penetration in Asia-Pacific, at the end of 2013 ................................................................ 31
Growth of satellite TV FTA and pay-TV households in emerging markets in APAC, 2010-2013 ............. 32
Growth of households with satellite TV access in a selection of APAC countries, between 2010 and 201332
Evolution of analogue and digital satellite TV households in emerging APAC markets, 2010- 2013 ....... 33
Customers covered by satellite under the Australian Broadband Guarantee in 2010 (the NBN
programme’s predecessor) ...................................................................................................................... 34
Recap of SES’s efforts to build its presence in emerging regions, including APAC ................................. 36
Estimated regional increase in SES net satellite capacity up to 2015 ...................................................... 37
Map of submarine cables in Asia-Pacific ................................................................................................. 38
Submarine cable connectivity in Singapore ............................................................................................. 39
Telkom Indonesia’s Nusantara Super Highway backbone network ......................................................... 40
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Emerging markets in Asia-Pacific: what outlook for satellite?
Figure 30:
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Telkom Indonesia’s broadband targets .................................................................................................... 41
CAPEX growth in Asia-Pacific, 2008-2013 .............................................................................................. 41
CAPEX growth in China and India, 2008-2013 ........................................................................................ 42
Wireline and wireless CAPEX growth in China, 2008-2013 ..................................................................... 43
Wireline and wireless CAPEX growth in India, 2008-2013....................................................................... 43
Map of mobile licences mobiles held by Bharti Airtel in 2013 .................................................................. 44
HDTV penetration in a selection of APAC markets, in 2013 .................................................................... 47
Breakdown of HDTV access in a selection of APAC countries, in 2013 .................................................. 47
Comparison of IPTV household growth in China and in emerging APAC markets, and growth of China’s
market share, 2010-2014 ......................................................................................................................... 48
HDTV access around the globe, by network in 2013 ............................................................................... 48
Breakdown of screen time by device and APAC country, for all types of content, in 2013 ...................... 49
OTT video services in Malaysia ............................................................................................................... 50
Breakdown of OTT video revenue in Asia-Pacific by country, 2010-2018 ............................................... 50
Breakdown of OTT video revenue by segment in emerging APAC markets (excluding Australia, South
Korea, Japan and New Zealand), 2010-2018 .......................................................................................... 51
Examples of hybrid terrestrial-broadband TV services............................................................................. 52
Broadband satellite subscriber growth in Asia-Pacific, 2014-2018 .......................................................... 54
Evolution of the number of households accessing a satellite TV service in emerging APAC countries and
annual growth rate, 2014-2018 ................................................................................................................ 55
Growth of the number of households accessing a satellite TV service (FTA or Pay-TV) in emerging
APAC countries, 2014-2018 .................................................................................................................... 55
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Emerging markets in Asia-Pacific: what outlook for satellite?
2. Methodology & definitions
2.1. IDATE’s general methodology
The methods employed by IDATE’s teams of analysts and consultants are based on an approach that
combines:
• research and validation of data collected in the field;
• the application of classic industry and market analysis tools: segmentation, competition analysis,
strategic strengths, modelling, assessment and forecasts…;
• the expertise of specialists who contribute their own analytical capabilities and those of their network of
market analysts.
More specifically, the tools employed by IDATE’s teams are as follows:
1/ A multi-disciplinary team of full-time consultants, specialized by sector of activity
IDATE’s analyses are performed primarily by our in-house consultants, and very occasionally by
freelance market analysts. This approach allows us to capitalize on our pool of expertise through
teamwork, sharing knowledge, ideas, contacts, viewpoints and key data. Each report is drafted by a team
of specialists, overseen by senior consultants with a proven track record in their field.
2/ Primary and secondary research
IDATE reports and databases are compiled based on primary data obtained from one-on-one interviews
with the sector’s decision-makers, and on secondary data which is established by cross-referencing
public sources and external databases.
3/ An integrated information centre sustained by a number of tools and proprietary databases
Over the past 30 years, IDATE has established working and data organization methods and proprietary
databases that trace the central chapters in the history of our sectors of expertise.
• Companies: IDATE’s in-house data service tracks the latest news and events to come out of the top
telecom, Internet and media industry companies around the globe. Innovative firms and start-ups are
monitored by the market experts in the different “Practices”.
• Markets: IDATE’s databases are derived from rigorous processing of fundamental economic variables
(GDP, investments, exchange rates, demographics, etc.) and their relation to decisive sector-specific
and national elements (capex, national market dynamics, etc.).
• Technologies: IDATE’s organization by Practice provides us with an efficient means of tracking
innovation. IDATE’s engineers ensure in-depth understanding of the changing shape of products and
services and of the latest innovations in the marketplace.
4/ Contents of the published reports
Each IDATE market report details the structures and issues at play in the market being examined, the
decisive forces (technologies, regulation, consumption) and the players involved. Particular emphasis is
given to market assessments and forecasts, as part of the central premise. All market reports are laid out
in a clear and concise manner, and illustrated with tables and graphs of key market data and trends.
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Emerging markets in Asia-Pacific: what outlook for satellite?
The process of drafting of a market report includes the following stages:
• analysis of the information available in the in-house databases, and review of analyses performed in the
recent past;
• based on a preliminary segmentation and assessment of the market, and as part of an validated
interview guide, analysts conduct interviews that enable them to validate working hypotheses;
• a market model is then established, making it possible to test the hypotheses that have an impact on
the market’s development, and validated by a new round of interviews;
• and, finally, the report’s conclusions are debated with the team responsible for the project and with
expert consultants from the various fields involved;
• a final proofreading and editing/revision process, prior to the production of the final version of the report
which is delivered to the client.
2.2. Methodology specific to this report
This report was produced by drawing on:
• IDATE’s expertise on the topics covered, including market reports produced over the past 20 years;
• participation in trade conferences (Satellite 2014, CommunicAsia, Toulouse Space Show…).
By emerging countries, we mean all of the countries in the region except for Australia, New Zealand,
Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea.
Figure 1:
Map of the countries covered by this report
Source: IDATE, Emerging markets in Asia-Pacific, December 2014
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