fridley station tod market analysis

Transcription

FRIDLEY STATION
TOD MARKET ANALYSIS
Prepared for:
City of Fridley
Northstar Corridor Development Authority
Prepared by:
McComb Group, Ltd.
Vantage Point Development Advisors
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
May 2013
FRIDLEY STATION
TOD MARKET ANALYSIS
Prepared for:
City of Fridley
Northstar Corridor Development Authority
Prepared by:
McComb Group, Ltd.
Vantage Point Development Advisors
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
May 2013
[Back of inside coversheet] “The work that provided the basis for this publication was supported by funding
under an award with the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
The substance and findings of the work are dedicated to the public. The author
and publisher are solely responsible for the accuracy of the statements and
interpretations contained in this publication. Such interpretations do not
necessarily reflect the views of the Government."
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter
Subject
Page
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................ vii
Northstar Commuter Rail ...................................................................................... vii
Commuter Rail ....................................................................................................... ix
Commuter Rail Transit-Oriented Development..................................................... ix
Fridley Development Potential ................................................................................x
Residential Development ................................................................................. xi
Retail Uses ....................................................................................................... xi
Opportunity Sites ............................................................................................. xi
Short-Term Developments ............................................................................... xi
Circulation and Connectivity Improvements .................................................. xii
I
INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................. 1-1
Background .......................................................................................................... 1-1
Transit Oriented Development ............................................................................. 1-2
Commuter Rail vs. Light Rail .............................................................................. 1-4
Commuter Rail TOD............................................................................................ 1-5
Application to Northstar Corridor ........................................................................ 1-6
II
NORTHSTAR CORRIDOR STATIONS ........................................................ 2-1
Fridley Commuting .............................................................................................. 2-4
III
REGIONAL ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC FRAMEWORK ......... 3-1
Employment Trends ............................................................................................. 3-1
Corridor Employment .................................................................................... 3-3
Major Industries and Drivers ......................................................................... 3-6
Major Employers ........................................................................................... 3-7
Fridley Employment ...................................................................................... 3-8
Population and Households.................................................................................. 3-8
Population and Household Forecasts ........................................................... 3-10
IV
NORTHSTAR CORRIDOR RESIDENTIAL MARKET CONDITIONS... 4-1
Residential Market ............................................................................................... 4-1
For-Sale Market ............................................................................................. 4-3
Apartment Market .......................................................................................... 4-4
Fridley Population and Households ..................................................................... 4-5
Fridley Residential Market .................................................................................. 4-8
For-Sale Market ............................................................................................. 4-9
Apartment Market ........................................................................................ 4-10
Recent Development Projects ...................................................................... 4-12
Fridley Realtor Surveys ..................................................................................... 4-13
Residential Growth Estimates ............................................................................ 4-15
Twin Cities Area Residential Growth Corridors ......................................... 4-15
Historic Residential Growth ........................................................................ 4-16
i
TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued)
Chapter
Subject
Page
Fridley Residential Growth .......................................................................... 4-17
Multi-Family Development Trends ............................................................. 4-18
Household Formation................................................................................... 4-19
Stabilized Residential Demand .................................................................... 4-20
Fridley Residential Demand ........................................................................ 4-21
V
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE.................................................................... 5-1
Twin Cities Area Retail Market ........................................................................... 5-1
Northstar Corridor Shopping Centers .................................................................. 5-1
Fridley Retail Market ........................................................................................... 5-3
New Retail Development ..................................................................................... 5-3
Office Market ....................................................................................................... 5-3
Industrial Market .................................................................................................. 5-5
VI
FRIDLEY STATION DRAW AREA DEMOGRAPHICS ............................ 6-1
Fridley Station Draw Area ................................................................................... 6-1
Population and Households ............................................................................. 6-2
Household Income ........................................................................................... 6-3
Household Density Distribution ...................................................................... 6-4
Household Income Distribution ...................................................................... 6-5
Population Age ................................................................................................ 6-6
Demographic Characteristics .......................................................................... 6-7
Station Area Sales Potential ................................................................................. 6-7
VII
FRIDLEY STATION AREA DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL ................... 7-1
Fridley Station...................................................................................................... 7-1
Commuter Service ........................................................................................... 7-2
Traffic Counts.................................................................................................. 7-4
Surrounding Land Use and Development ....................................................... 7-4
Station Area Plan ................................................................................................. 7-6
Housing ........................................................................................................... 7-7
Infrastructure Plans and Needs ........................................................................ 7-7
Land Use Change ............................................................................................ 7-7
Development Opportunities ................................................................................. 7-9
Residential Development ................................................................................ 7-9
Retail Uses ....................................................................................................... 7-9
Opportunity Sites ............................................................................................. 7-9
Short-Term Developments .............................................................................. 7-9
Circulation and Connectivity Improvements ................................................ 7-10
APPENDICES
Appendix A: Demographic Characteristics
Appendix B: Retail and Services Sales Potential and Supportable Space
ii
LIST OF TABLES
Table
Title
Page
1-1
U.S. Commuter Rail Systems Ranked by Ridership............................................ 1-5
2-1
Northstar Station Draw Areas Workers and Those That Work in
Minneapolis ..................................................................................................... 2-3
2-2
Northstar Riders and Station Draw Areas Residents Working in
Minneapolis; 2010 ........................................................................................... 2-3
2-3
Fridley Station Draw Area Resident Commuting; 2010 Residents That
Work in Other Station Cities ........................................................................... 2-4
2-4
Fridley Workers That Live in Other Station Draw Areas; 2010 .......................... 2-5
3-1
MSA and Anoka and Sherburne Counties Total Employment; 2001 to 2011..... 3-1
3-2
Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA Non-Farm Employment by Industry; 2001 to
2011 ................................................................................................................. 3-2
3-3
Anoka County Non-Farm Employment by Industry; 2001 to 2011 .................... 3-4
3-4
Sherburne County Non-Farm Employment by Industry; 2001 to 2011 .............. 3-5
3-5
Corridor Communities Employment; 2000 to 2011 ............................................ 3-6
3-6
Fridley Employment Trends; 2002 to 2010 ......................................................... 3-8
3-7
Twin Cities Area Population; 2000 to 2010 ........................................................ 3-9
3-8
Twin Cities Area Households; 2000 to 2010 ....................................................... 3-9
3-9
Corridor Communities Population and Households; 2000 to 2010 ................... 3-10
3-10
Northstar Corridor Population and Household Forecast; 2010 to 2030 ............ 3-10
4-1
Residential Building Permits: MSA and Anoka and Sherburne Counties;
2000 to 2011 .................................................................................................... 4-2
4-2
Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA and Northstar Corridor Cities Residential
Building Permits; 2000 to 2011....................................................................... 4-3
4-3
Twin Cities Area Average Home Price; 2005 to 2011 ........................................ 4-4
4-4
Twin Cities Area Apartment Market; 2nd Quarter 2011 ...................................... 4-5
4-5
City of Fridley Population, Households, and Tenure; 2000 and 2010................. 4-5
4-6
City of Fridley and Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA Housing Tenure; 2000 and
2010 ................................................................................................................. 4-6
4-7
City of Fridley Households by Type; 2000 and 2010 .......................................... 4-6
4-8
City of Fridley and Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA Households by Age of
Householder; 2010 .......................................................................................... 4-7
4-9
City of Fridley and Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA Household Income; 2010 ......... 4-8
4-10
Fridley Residential Building Permits; 2000 to 2012............................................ 4-9
4-11
Fridley Home Sales; 2005 to 2012....................................................................... 4-9
iii
LIST OF TABLES (continued)
Table
Title
Page
4-12
Fridley Average Home Sale Price; 2005 to 2012 .............................................. 4-10
4-13
Fridley Foreclosed Sales; 2005 to 2012 ............................................................. 4-10
4-14
Fridley Apartments: Number of Units and Square Footage .............................. 4-12
4-15
Fridley Apartments: Monthly Rent and Rent per Square Foot .......................... 4-13
4-16
Seven-County Metropolitan Area, North Growth Corridor, Northstar
Corridor Draw Area, Fridley Station Draw Area, and Fridley
Residential Building Permits; 1991 to 2012.................................................. 4-17
4-17
Northstar Corridor Draw Area, Northstar Cities, Other Cities, and Fridley
Multi-Family Building Permits; 1991 to 2012 .............................................. 4-18
4-18
Seven-County Metropolitan Area Plus Sherburne County, North Growth
Corridor, Northstar Corridor Draw Area, Fridley Station Draw Area, and
Fridley Household Projections; 2013 to 2035 ............................................... 4-22
5-1
Twin Cities Area Retail Inventory; 3rd Quarter 2011 .......................................... 5-1
5-2
Northstar Corridor Major Shopping Centers ....................................................... 5-2
5-3
Fridley Retail Rental Rates .................................................................................. 5-3
5-4
Twin Cities Area Office Market; 4th Quarter 2011 .............................................. 5-4
5-5
Fridley Office Rental Rates ................................................................................. 5-4
5-6
Twin Cities Area Industrial Market; 3rd Quarter 2011......................................... 5-5
6-1
Fridley Station and Northstar Corridor Draw Areas and Seven-County
Metropolitan Area Population and Household Growth Trends
2000 Census; 2011 and 2016 Estimated.......................................................... 6-2
6-2
Metropolitan Area Average and Median Household Income
2000 Census; 2011 and 2016 Estimated.......................................................... 6-3
6-3
Metropolitan Area Household Income Distribution: 2000 Census;
2011 and 2016 Estimated ................................................................................ 6-6
6-4
Fridley Station Draw Area Population by Age; 2011 and 2016 .......................... 6-6
6-5
Fridley Station Draw Area Demographic and Income Snapshot ......................... 6-8
6-6
Northstar Corridor Draw Area Demographic and Income Snapshot ................... 6-9
6-7
Seven-County Metropolitan Area Demographic and Income Snapshot ............ 6-10
6-8
Fridley Northstar Rider Retail Sales Potential and Supportable Space
by Merchandise Category; 2016.................................................................... 6-11
6-9
Fridley Northstar Rider Supportable Space by Merchandise Category;
2016 and 2020 ............................................................................................... 6-12
iv
LIST OF TABLES (continued)
Table
Title
Page
7-1
Northstar Commuter Rail Ridership by Station; 2012 ......................................... 7-2
7-2
Fridley Station: Travel Time to Downtown Northstar and MTC #852 ............... 7-3
7-3
Fridley Station: Travel Time from Downtown Northstar and MTC #852........... 7-3
7-4
Fridley Station Area Average Daily Traffic Counts; 2010 .................................. 7-4
7-5
Northstar TOD Redevelopment Area Potential Land Use Changes .................... 7-8
LIST OF MAPS
Map
Title
Page
2-1
Northstar Corridor Draw Areas ........................................................................... 2-2
4-1
Fridley Apartments ............................................................................................ 4-11
4-2
North Growth Corridor ...................................................................................... 4-15
4-3
Northstar Corridor Draw Areas ......................................................................... 4-16
6-1
Fridley Station Draw Area ................................................................................... 6-1
6-2
Fridley Station Draw Area Estimated 2016 Household Density ......................... 6-4
6-3
Fridley Station Draw Area Estimated 2016 Household Income: Percent
Above $75,000 ................................................................................................ 6-5
7-1
Fridley Station Location ...................................................................................... 7-1
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure
Title
Page
i
Northstar Commuter Rail Line ............................................................................. vii
ii
Northstar Corridor Cities ..................................................................................... viii
iii
Site Plan – Fridley Northstar TOD TIF Master Plan ...............................................x
1-1
Northstar Corridor Stations .................................................................................. 1-1
1-2
Northstar Line Station Typology ......................................................................... 1-3
2-1
Northstar Park-and-Ride User Origins................................................................. 2-1
3-1
Employment by Industry as Percent of Total MSA and Anoka and
Sherburne Counties ......................................................................................... 3-6
3-2
Northstar Corridor Major Employers................................................................... 3-7
4-1
Minneapolis and Selected Cities Home Price Index, 2000 to 2011 ..................... 4-3
v
LIST OF FIGURES (continued)
Figure
Title
Page
4-2
City of Fridley and Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA Percent of Households by
Type; 2010 ....................................................................................................... 4-7
4-3
City of Fridley and Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA Household Income
Distribution; 2010............................................................................................ 4-8
4-4
Metropolitan Area Building Permits; 1990 to 2012; Stabilized Residential
Demand; 2013 to 2035 .................................................................................. 4-21
5-1
Northstar Corridor Major Retail Centers ............................................................. 5-2
7-1
Northstar Schedule – Fridley Station ................................................................... 7-2
7-2
Fridley Station Existing Conditions ..................................................................... 7-5
7-3
Fridley TOD District ............................................................................................ 7-6
7-4
Site Plan – Fridley Northstar TOD TIF Master Plan ........................................... 7-8
vi
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This report summarizes the analysis and conclusions regarding the market for transit oriented
development (TOD) at the Fridley Station and other station areas on the Northstar commuter rail
line in the Twin Cities area. The study was completed under a contract with the Northstar
Corridor Development Authority (NCDA) with funding provided by the Metropolitan Council
through a HUD Sustainability Grant.
Northstar Commuter Rail
The Northstar Line opened in 2009 with service between Big Lake and Target Field in
downtown Minneapolis, Minnesota, a distance of 40 miles. Stations are located in Big Lake, Elk
River, Ramsey, Anoka, Coon Rapids, Fridley, and Target Field in Minneapolis, as shown in
Figure i. Each of the Northstar station cities has unique characteristics, as shown in Figure ii.
Figure i
NORTHSTAR COMMUTER RAIL LINE
Source: EPS.
The Northstar Line runs on existing Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF) tracks with five
weekday morning downtown inbound trips and five outbound weekday trips. There is one
reverse commute trip each day. Daily ridership averages 2,400 riders per day with a target of
vii
viii
Connectivity Avg. Household Income ‐ 2010 Median Age ‐ 2010 Adjacent activity What’s happening? What’s unique? Opportunity Community Station Area Topography Characteristic $72,848 36.9 $60,337 37.1 Residential Retail Anoka County owns 15‐acre station area site Business park and residential development Residential Commercial Industrial Adjacent to Riverdale Mall Redevelopment site Industrial redevelopment Redevelopment sites First ring suburb, developed 40s and 50s 37.6 $60,113 Residential Institutional industrial Public VOA 178‐unit senior housing Adjacent to Rum River Redevelopment sites Historic river city, county seat Commuter Residential Emphasis Commuter Residential Emphasis Second ring suburb, developed 70s and 80s Residential Emphasis 19.0 miles 17.0 miles 7.87 miles Anoka
Coon Rapids
Fridley 34.9 $87,096 280 units TOD multi‐family housing Residential Office Medical Retail VA and Allina Clinics Greenfield Development Third ring suburb, new town center, significant growth Commuter Town Center 23.2 miles Ramsey
Distance from Target Field Station, Downtown Minneapolis NORTHSTAR CORRIDOR CITIES
Figure ii
34.9 $83,024 Industrial Residential Retail Redevelopment Greenfield Development City owned industrial park – 75 acres Station area development proposed Historic river city, county seat, significant growth Activity Center 28.6 miles Elk River
29.5 $67,970 Industrial Residential Retail 38 units of housing ‐ 2013 Multi‐family housing near station Greenfield Development Historic lakeside community, significant growth Commuter Residential 38.8 miles Big Lake
5,900 riders per day by 2030. There is limited weekend service as well as extra trips provided
for special events such as Minnesota Twins (baseball) and Vikings (football) games.
Commuter Rail
Commuter rail differs from light rail or heavy rail in terms of its characteristics and markets
served; similarly TOD opportunities associated with commuter rail also have some important
distinctions. Commuter rail is most often passenger transit service utilizing diesel or electric
propelled trains on existing track that are also utilized by freight or other passenger trains. It
generally provides frequent peak-hour service and work trip oriented service of longer distances,
typically 20 miles or more, with spacing between stations ranging from two to five miles,
compared to light rail with station area spacing of three to six blocks and frequent service for 22
hours per day.
Commuter Rail Transit-Oriented Development
Transit-oriented development (TOD) can be defined as mixed-use residential or commercial
development within walking distance of a transit station designed to maximize access to transit
and incorporating features designed to encourage transit ridership. A TOD often resembles other
activity centers with a greater mix of uses and higher densities than the surrounding market area.
The presence of transit at a station location can have a positive effect on market and development
potentials in the immediate area because transit improves the regional accessibility of the station
area properties, which has a positive impact on property values. These higher land values can
support higher development densities and in some cases a different mix of land uses in much the
same way as property adjacent to a highway interchange is different from development farther
away. However, the presence of transit alone does not translate to greater development
potentials.
Commuter rail TOD opportunities are also different than those associated with light rail or heavy
rail systems due to its more limited scope, both in terms of frequency of service as well as the
portion of the region that easily can be accessed by transit. Both factors limit the accessibility
premiums that translate to increases in real estate market demand and higher land values. The
nature of the commuter-freight rail corridor can also be less compatible with adjacent TOD. The
sound levels associated with diesel locomotives and horns are louder, there are often larger
transit parking fields, and the frequency of freight rail trains all creates land use impacts that are
less compatible with residential and office-based employment development. The existing land
development pattern in commuter rail corridors is also often not compatible with TOD, as it can
include manufacturing and distribution uses requiring direct rail service as well as other heavy
industrial uses which have located near like uses and away from residential and community
serving commercial uses. Despite these limitations, there remains a great deal of interest in TOD
at commuter station locations, and in particular where the land use and development pattern is
less fully built out. There are a number of principles that apply to capitalizing on TOD
opportunities at commuter rail station locations.
A station area plan that addresses individual station location characteristics, land use, market
opportunities and infrastructure needs is key as it provides direction for future development
within a station influence area (approximately a half-mile radius) over a 20 to 25 year time
horizon. It may also contain redevelopment strategies and recommendations for changes and
incentives to encourage TOD.
ix
Fridley Development Potential
Northstar station area potential for residential, retail, and commercial development is dependent
on many factors including location, convenience, and the geographic area serviced by the station.
The amount and type of retail and commercial development that can be supported at each station
area will depend on its ability to capitalize on the economic vitality of the geographic area served
by the station. An important consideration in retail or commercial development is the station
area’s convenience for potential customers that are not Northstar riders.
Fridley Station enjoys a convenient location between two north/south arterial routes with
convenient access to neighborhood-scale shopping at 57th Avenue. Creating a connection under
the railroad tracks at 57th Avenue would improve development opportunities for areas west of
Main Street.
Plans for the station area are contained in the Fridley Northstar TOD TIF Master Plan, contained
in Figure iii. This plan envisions short- and long-term changes in the TOD area including new
and updated multi-family housing and increased mixed-use development. Short-term potential
includes townhome development adjacent to the Fridley Station east parking lot along Main
Street and north of the Fridley Station west parking area north of 61st ½ Way. The vacant former
Tiro parcel is shown as mixed-use, which would accommodate retail, office, or even residential.
Figure iii
Source: City of Fridley.
x
Residential Development
Market research conducted in Chapter IV estimates that Fridley has the potential to grow by
2,800 households by 2035 based on stabilized market demand. The average stabilized demand
for the next five years is about 140 units per year. This estimate is significantly higher than the
average growth of 35 units over the past 10 years, which appears to have been constrained by
lack of available housing product in Fridley. Between 2007 and 2011, multi-family units have
averaged 85 percent of Fridley’s building permits. In the future, multi-family demand is
estimated to range from 85 to 90 percent of stabilized market demand. This would be about 119
to 125 units per year.
The Fridley Station area could potentially attract 50 to 60 percent (60 to 75 units) of stabilized
multi-family housing demand with units that are properly marketed and competitively priced.
These stabilized housing demand estimates are based on normal household formation rates.
The Fridley Station area has the potential to capture 20 to 25 percent of stabilized multi-family
market demand over the next 20 years in the half-mile ring around the station depending on
available development sites and demand for housing. The TOD Master Plan provides for new
housing adjacent to the west and east station areas. The potential market demand could also
provide for increased density in the residential areas west of East River Road in the ensuing
years as market forces create demand for new housing.
Retail Uses
Shopping areas in southern Fridley were developed 40 to 50 years ago when retail store types
were considerably different than they are today. The 25-acre parcel in the northeast corner of I694 and East River Road presents an opportunity to expand retail offerings in Fridley with a high
visibility site. This site would also be suitable for business park uses should the retail option not
prove feasible.
Opportunity Sites
Short- and long-term development opportunities are contained in Figure iii. Short-term
development opportunities include parcels adjacent to the east and west station parking areas.
Long-term redevelopment opportunities are represented by almost all of the privately owned land
west of the rail line south of the station area.
Short-Term Developments
Development planning in the station area should include evaluating long-term parking needs at
the Fridley Station. The parking lots are only about 15 percent utilized and only a portion of
those passengers ride the Northstar. This indicates that there may be excess parking that could
be converted to developable land. The City of Fridley, NCDA, and Metro Transit should review
parking utilization and transit ridership, and determine the appropriate amount of parking needed
to serve both bus and Northstar riders in the future. Any excess parking area could be converted
to residential development. If there is additional land, the potential development opportunities
may involve a wider range of housing types.
The station area sites are appropriate for a variety of multi-family housing options including
townhomes and multi-family housing consisting of market rate, affordable, or senior housing. A
xi
senior independent living community could be developed on the east station area site. This site
is conveniently located about three blocks north of the neighborhood shopping area at 57th
Avenue. On the west side of the rail line, a portion of the parking lot could be utilized for
housing and possibly incorporate additional land occupied by single family homes north of 61st
½ Way east of East River Road. A development could be built solely on the parking site, but the
larger assembled site would allow for more development flexibility.
The north portion of the former Tiro site at the corner of East River Road and I-694 is within the
one-half mile ring of the station. This site is a short-term development opportunity. The site is
suitable for a retail or commercial office use that would benefit from its excellent freeway
visibility.
Developments that generate high traffic volumes will require improved access from East River
Road. Due to its site’s large size, it may be suitable for residential development if a retail or
office use does not occur. This would be particularly true if the industrial use to the north were
to change.
The land along the Mississippi River west of East River Road between the station area and I-694
is a potential opportunity area. There is a mixture of residential, recreation, and educational uses
that could undergo transformation in the future. Georgetown Apartments, at the southern end of
this area, are well maintained with high occupancy and some buildings are within walking
distance of the station. Market pressure to redevelop these apartments would be in the future, but
it is a potential long-term opportunity. North of this property, the Fridley HRA owns several
affordable housing properties, which could be eventual candidates for redevelopment. These
properties could be considered as part of a larger master planned community of affordable and/or
market rate housing. The location adjacent to Chase Island Park, as well as the station area is
appealing for residential development.
Circulation and Connectivity Improvements
One of the impediments to development of opportunity sites in the Fridley Station area is
connectivity. The best short-term investments in the station area may be to improve the aesthetic
experience and connectivity for pedestrians and bicyclists, as well as cars. This could help to
attract or accelerate development in the station area. It could also help to improve ridership by
better connecting nearby multi-family properties, single family neighborhoods, and employers.
The City should continue its efforts to add and improve sidewalks along Main Street. The East
River Road Corridor should be a major focus of streetscape and connectivity investments. Good
bicycle infrastructure will extend the station’s non-automobile capture area well beyond the onehalf mile ring. The 57th Avenue extension will greatly improve east/west connectivity. This
should be planned as a multi-modal or “complete street” facility to provide improved access to
the Tiro site.
xii
Chapter I
INTRODUCTION
This report summarizes the analysis and conclusions of Vantage Point Development Advisors,
LLC, McComb Group, Ltd., and Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) regarding the
market for transit oriented development (TOD) at the Fridley Station on the Northstar commuter
rail line in the Twin Cities area. The study was completed under a contract with the Northstar
Corridor Development Authority (NCDA) with funding provided by the Metropolitan Council
through a HUD Sustainability Grant.
Background
The Northstar Line opened in 2009 with service between Big Lake and Target Field in
downtown Minneapolis, Minnesota, a distance of 40 miles, as shown in Figure 1-1. There are
seven stations in operation. The line begins at Big Lake with additional stops in Elk River,
Ramsey, Anoka, Coon Rapids, Fridley, and Target Field.
Figure 1-1
NORTHSTAR CORRIDOR STATIONS
Source: Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
1-1
The Northstar Line runs on existing Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF) tracks with five
weekday morning downtown inbound trips and five outbound weekday trips. There is one
reverse commute trip each day. Daily ridership averages 2,400 riders per day which is below the
Metro Transit goal of 3,400 riders per day by 2010 and 5,900 riders per day by 2030. There is
limited weekend service as well as extra trips provided for special events such as Minnesota
Twins (baseball) and Vikings (football) games.
The $317 million project was built with $157 million in federal transit funds, $97.5 million in
state sales tax revenues, and $34.8 million from the Anoka County Rail Authority, $8.0 million
from Sherburne County, $5.9 million from the Met Council, and $2.6 million from the
Minnesota Twins. A total of $107.5 million was paid to BNSF for a perpetual easement for track
rights. The rail corridor continues to be one of the busiest freight corridors in the region with an
average of 50 to 60 freight trains per day.
The line is planned for a future extension to St. Cloud, which is an additional 42 miles. It was
not included in the original full funding grant agreement with FTA due to cost effectiveness
concerns as measured by the costs per new rider. A major cost factor is the need to complete
double track rail for a 14-mile segment north of Big Lake.
Transit Oriented Development
TOD can be defined as mixed-use residential or commercial development within walking
distance of a transit station designed to maximize access to transit and incorporating features
designed to encourage transit ridership. A TOD often resembles other activity centers with a
greater mix of uses and higher densities than the surrounding market area. TODs typically have
the following features:
♦ Mix of Uses – Land uses can be mixed either vertically or horizontally. TOD is most
often primarily residential at suburban locations but can have employment and other
commercial and retail uses at activity center and downtown locations.
♦ Compact Development – TODs are built at higher densities than the surrounding market
area, creating a focal point around a transit station. The density and amount of
development are market driven; higher land values support higher development densities
and more urban locations support greater amounts of development.
♦ Pedestrian Oriented – The development pattern at TODs is designed to facilitate
pedestrian access to and from the station with ample sidewalks, interconnected blocks
and streets, and buildings oriented toward the street and parking located in secondary
locations.
Stations can be classified according to their transit function and their approximate place in the
continuum of urban and suburban development. This continuum ranges from Downtown and
Regional Activity Centers areas on the larger and most intense end of the development spectrum
to Neighborhood Centers on the smaller end, as shown in Figure 1-2. There are also more
specialized single use centers such as hospitals or major sports complexes. The mix of uses
varies by type and locational setting; however, the larger, more intense urban centers tend to be
1-2
higher density and contain more employment uses while smaller centers tend to contain lower
densities and a greater proportion of housing.
Figure 1-2
NORTHSTAR LINE STATION TYPOLOGY
Residential
Commercial/
Employment
Scale
Downtown /
Central
Business
District
Urban multifamily and loft
Major employment
center. Full range of
office, retail,
entertainment, and
services.
High
rise: 5
stories
and
above
Activity Center
Multi-family
and townhome
Employment emphasis,
with more than 250,000
office & 50,000 sq. ft.
retail
5
stories
and
above
Urban Center
Multi-family
and townhome
Predominately
commercial. More than
100,000 sq. ft. of retail.
More retail than office.
Less
than 45
stories
More employment than
residential. Mix of office,
service, and retail uses.
Less
than 45
stories
Primarily park-n-ride.
Employment and
commercial development is
compatible with transit, but
not dependent on transit
service.
Anoka
Significant retail and
mixed use possible based
on size of trade area and
market conditions.
Less
than 4
stories
Greater TOD potential.
Also has large park-n-ride
with local and express bus
connections. Can be an
end-of-line station.
Ramsey
More Commercial/ Employment
Station Type
Commuter Employment
Emphasis
Special
Uses
More
Residential
Commuter
Town Center
Multi-family,
townhome,
small lot
single family.
May be more
than ¼ mile
from station.
Multi-family,
townhome,
small lot
single family
in closer
proximity to
station.
Transit System Function
Major regional destination
for employment, shopping,
and entertainment.
Numerous and frequent
multimodal connections
(bus, light rail, streetcar).
Sub-regional destination.
Some park-n-ride. Linked
with district circulator
transit and express feeder
bus.
Sub-regional destination.
Some park-n-ride. Linked
with district circulator
transit and express feeder
bus.
Corridor
Example
Target
Field
N/A
Coon
Rapids
Main Street
Multi-family
Main street retail infill
Less
than 4
stories
Bus or streetcar corridors.
Walk-up stops. Limited
transit parking.
N/A
Commuter –
Residential
Emphasis
Multi-family,
townhome,
small lot
single family.
May be more
than ¼ mile
from station.
Limited retail and service
uses serving station and
surrounding
neighborhoods.
Less
than 4
stories
Large park-n-ride. May
have additional feeder bus
and express bus
connections.
Elk River
Big Lake
Neighborhood
Multi-family
townhome,
small lot
single family
Predominately residential
with limited
neighborhood serving
commercial (less than
50,000 sq. ft.)
Less
than 4
stories
Neighborhood walk-up
station. Small or no park-nride. Local bus connections.
Fridley
Campus/
Special Events
Station/
Regional
Activity Center
Limited multifamily
Institutional,
entertainment, limited
office and retail.
Varies
Large commuter
destination. Large parking
reservoirs to serve activities,
not necessarily for transit.
N/A
1-3
The presence of transit at a station location can have a positive effect on market and development
potentials in the immediate area because transit improves the regional accessibility of the station
area properties, which has a positive impact on property values. These higher land values can
support higher development densities and in some cases a different mix of land uses in much the
same way as property adjacent to a highway interchange is different from development farther
away. However, the presence of transit alone does not translate to greater development
potentials. There are other key economic requirements impacting TOD, including:
♦ A Positive Market – TOD cannot overcome other negative local or national real estate
market conditions, including negative household or employment growth, declining
building and land values, or the lack of conventional development financing.
♦ Supportive Public Policy – In order for a TOD activity center to be built, the local
jurisdiction needs to provide a planning framework and zoning that allows for the type,
mix, and density of development supportable by the market and desired by the
community.
♦ Realistic Expectations – TOD can alter the location, density, and form of development
within a market area. It can have a positive impact on the development capture of a city
or sub-region. However, it cannot by itself create the demand for net new development
within the larger region.
TOD also requires a commitment to a long-term development plan. Historically TOD does not
occur until the transit investment is in place and provides a high level of accessibility that is
generating high levels of ridership. In all but the most robust real estate markets, a TOD plan
will take 20 or more years to become a significant activity center.
Commuter Rail vs. Light Rail
Commuter rail differs from light rail or heavy rail in terms of its characteristics and markets
served; similarly TOD opportunities associated with commuter rail also have some important
distinctions. Commuter rail is most often passenger transit service utilizing diesel or electric
propelled trains on existing track and/or right-of-ways utilized by freight or other passenger
trains. It generally provides frequent peak-hour service and work trip oriented service of longer
distances, typically 20 miles or more, with longer station spacings of two to five miles.
Until recently, commuter rail systems were only found in the largest metropolitan areas including
Boston, Chicago, Montreal, New York, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Toronto. These
systems are made up of multiple commuter rail lines and connect to light rail, heavy rail, and
subway systems. The number of destinations that are accessible from these older systems is
much larger than some of the newer systems. In the last 20 years, commuter rail lines have been
developed in the next tier urban markets including Albuquerque/Santa Fe, Dallas, Los Angeles,
Miami, Minneapolis, Portland, and Seattle, as shown in Table 1-1. These newer systems are
generally single corridors rather than components of a larger system and have less than 10,000
average daily riders.
1-4
Table 1-1
U.S. COM M UTER RAIL SYSTEM S RANKED BY RIDERSHIP
Rank by
Ridership
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
System
Long Island Rail Road
M etra
M etro-North Railroad
New Jersey Transit Rail
M BTA Commuter Rail
SEPTA Regional Rail
Caltrain
M etrolink
M ARC Train
Virginia Railway Express
Tri-Rail
NICTD South Shore Line
Sounder Commuter Rail
A-Train
Trinity Railway Express
UTA FrontRunner
NCTD Coaster
New M exico Rail Runner Express
Altamont Commuter Express
Shore Line East
Northstar Line
Capital M etroRail
Westside Express Service
M usic City Star
M ajor Cities Served
Average
Weekday
Ridership
Route
M iles
Stations
New York
Chicago
New York
New York.Philadelphia
Boston
Philadelphia
San Francisco/San Jose
Los Angeles
Baltimore/Washington D.C.
Washington D.C.
M iami
Chicago
Seattle/Tacoma
Denton
Dallas/Fort Worth
Salt Lake City
San Diego
Albuquerque
San Jose
New Haven
Minneapolis
Austin
Beaverton
Nashville
352,000
304,700
298,500
276,459
130,600
127,200
41,400
39,600
33,700
19,200
163,300
12,100
10,100
8,600
8,200
5,800
5,000
3,900
3,000
2,200
2,000
2,000
1,600
1,000
700.00
495.00
384.00
951.00
368.00
289.00
77.00
512.00
187.00
90.00
72.00
90.00
80.00
21.00
34.00
44.00
41.00
97.00
86.00
59.00
40.00
32.00
15.00
32.00
124
240
120
162
133
150
32
55
43
18
18
20
9
6
10
8
8
13
10
13
6
9
5
6
Year
Opened
1836
1984
1983
1983
1973
1983
1987
1992
1984
1992
1987
1903
2000
2011
1996
2008
1995
2006
1998
1990
2009
2010
2010
2006
So urce: Eco no mic & P lanning Systems, Inc.
Commuter Rail TOD
Commuter rail TOD opportunities are also different than those associated with light rail or heavy
rail systems due to its more limited scope, both in terms of frequency of service as well as the
portion of the region that easily can be accessed by transit. Both factors limit the accessibility
premiums that translate to increases in real estate market demand and higher land values. The
nature of the commuter-freight rail corridor can also be less compatible with adjacent TOD. The
sound levels associated with diesel locomotives and horns are louder, there are often larger
transit parking fields, and the frequency of freight rail trains all creates land use impacts that are
less compatible with residential and office-based employment development. The existing land
development pattern in commuter rail corridors is also often not compatible with TOD, as it can
include manufacturing and distribution uses requiring direct rail service as well as other heavy
industrial uses which have located near like uses and away from residential and community
serving commercial uses.
Despite these limitations, there remains a great deal of interest in TOD at commuter station
locations, and in particular on these newer lines where the land use and development pattern is
less fully built out. There are a number of principles that apply to capitalizing on TOD
opportunities at commuter rail station locations. A station area plan is key as it provides
direction for the preferred land uses to be developed within a station influence area over a longterm time horizon of 20 to 25 years. The typical area of influence is approximately a half-mile
radius modified by logical roadway and geographic features. In addition to the land use element,
the plan should be grounded by a market study that identifies the potentials for TOD land uses.
1-5
It should also contain an infrastructure needs analysis, redevelopment strategies, and
recommendations for changes and incentives to encourage TOD. The TOD plan allows a
municipality to address the individual characteristics and market opportunities and constraints of
individual station locations and settings.
Application to Northstar Corridor
The Northstar Corridor stations have a wide range of land use and development conditions. At
greenfield station locations, the land use development opportunities are constrained primarily by
the depth of the market for higher density development uses, whether residential or employment.
How close development takes place to the station will be a factor or the intensity of train activity
and the tolerance of the market for living or working next to these uses. In general, urban
populations have a higher tolerance for “all things urban,” mixed uses, densities, and noise.
At commuter rail stations where existing industrial uses prevail, the community needs to
consider a number of additional factors when implementing a TOD plan. Most industrial uses
are not considered ideal TOD uses because the employment density (number of employees per
acre or per square foot) is not very high, resulting in little impact on transit demand and usage.
However, these industries are often important to the city’s employment base; hence it makes
little sense to try to relocate them at least until there is a land constraint in the area. The cities
should apply the same principles that it would in any other redevelopment setting by
concentrating on parcels that have a potential to be redeveloped to higher value uses including
vacant land and buildings and other outmoded space.
Short of a land constraint for imminent development, the plan should prioritize redeveloping or
removing the most incompatible land uses and developing vacant land. The plan should also
prioritize public investments on addressing infrastructure deficiencies and urban design
improvements to improve the public realm to attract TOD.
1-6
Chapter II
NORTHSTAR CORRIDOR STATIONS
Northstar Corridor stations are located in seven locations from Big Lake to Target Field in
Minneapolis. Each Northstar station attracts riders from a geographic area that is larger than the
station city. This is demonstrated by a Metropolitan Council license plate survey of vehicles in
Northstar park-n-ride lots conducted on January 27, 2010. This survey counted 851 vehicles, of
which 778 could be mapped. The number of boardings at each station on January 11, 2010, was
obtained from Metro Transit. Northstar station boardings at the five outlying stations totaled
944, which correlates well with 851 parked vehicles allowing for ride sharing and bus transfers.
We don’t know where these riders disembarked, but the assumption is that the vast majority rode
to Target Field. An additional eight riders boarded at Target Field. Origin of Ramsey’s park-nride users was derived from a survey conducted in 2012, obtained from Metro Transit. The
geocoded registration addresses of park-n-ride users for each station are shown on Figure 2-1.
Figure 2-1
2-1
The distribution of rider origins demonstrates that while most rider residences are close to the
station, many riders travel long distances before boarding the train. The distribution of rider
residences is similar to the distribution of customers for a retail business, or the draw area from
which a residential development will attract most of its residents. Retail stores have trade areas,
residential developments have draw areas, and each Northstar station has a travelshed. For this
analysis, these travelsheds will be referred to as draw areas.
Draw areas were delineated for each station based on the origin of park-n-ride users. These draw
areas, shown on Map 2-1, have widely differing geographic areas. Three draw areas extend
south of the Mississippi River, while three do not. Big Lake Station and Elk River Station Draw
Areas cover the largest geographic areas, while Fridley is the smallest. The draw areas for Elk
River, Ramsey, Anoka, and Coon Rapids overlap with adjacent station draw areas based on rider
behavior.
Map 2-1
NORTHSTAR CORRIDOR DRAW AREAS
The portion of draw area employed residents that work in Minneapolis decreases the further the
station is located from Minneapolis. The Fridley Station Draw Area has 16,232 employed
residents of which 3,384 (20.8 percent) are employed in Minneapolis. Draw area residents that
are employed in Minneapolis, particularly downtown Minneapolis, are the strongest candidates
to be Northstar commuters.
2-2
Table 2-1
NORTHSTAR STATION DRAW AREAS WORKERS
AND THOSE THAT WORK IN MINNEAPOLIS
Station Draw Area
Big Lake
Elk River
Ramsey
Anoka
Coon Rapids
Fridley
Total
Employees
Work in Minneapolis
Employees
Percent
6,695
13,808
25,296
46,508
56,554
16,232
514
1,206
2,779
5,990
8,828
3,384
7.7 %
8.7
11.0
12.9
15.6
20.8
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies.
Northstar station market penetration in each draw area is shown in Table 2-2. The number of
draw area residents employed in Minneapolis is compared with number of Northstar riders
identified in the user origin survey. In calculating ridership market share, each station’s draw
area was limited to the area north of the Mississippi River to be consistent with the residential
market analysis, which did not extend south of the river. Those riders from south of the river are
included as inflow riders along with those living outside the draw area. Inflow riders are
assumed to also be primarily destined to Minneapolis.
Table 2-2
NORTHSTAR RIDERS AND STATION DRAW AREAS RESIDENTS WORKING IN M INNEAPOLIS; 2010
Big Lake
Station
Work in M inneapolis
Ride to M inneapolis
Employee M arket Share
Draw Area Rider Percent
Inflow Riders
Percent
Total Riders
514
155
30.2 %
73.1 %
57
26.9 %
212
Draw Area
Ramsey
Anoka
Station
Station
Elk River
Station
1,206
240
19.9 %
83.3 %
48
16.7 %
288
2,779
87
3.1 %
67.4 %
42
32.6 %
129
5,990
190
3.2 %
89.2 %
23
10.8 %
213
Coon Rapids
Station
8,828
165
1.9 %
83.8 %
32
16.2 %
197
Fridley
Station
3,384
22
0.7 %
64.7 %
12
35.3 %
34
So urce: M cCo mb Gro up, Ltd. and M etro Transit.
The Big Lake Station Draw Area includes Big Lake and Becker and had 514 residents employed
in Minneapolis and an estimated 155 rode the Northstar for a market share of 30.2 percent.
Inflow riders from outside the draw area and south of the Mississippi River represented 26.9
percent or 57 riders including 31 from south of the Mississippi River. Big Lake has the highest
ridership market share of any station.
Elk River had the largest ridership with 288 users. This draw area includes the cities of Elk
River and Zimmerman, with inflow riders from Otsego, Albertville and a portion of St. Michael.
Draw area riders totaled 240 or 19.9 percent of the draw area residents employed in Minneapolis.
Inflow users (48 riders) accounted for 16.7 percent of the users, 33 of which were from south of
the Mississippi River.
2-3
The draw area for the Ramsey Station is based on express bus ridership. The draw area, which
includes Ramsey and portions of Nowthen and Elk River, had 2,779 Minneapolis employees.
Ridership on the Northstar has averaged 129, of which 67.4 percent, or 87 riders, are estimated to
be from the draw area based on bus ridership. These riders represent 3.1 percent of the
Minneapolis employees. Inflow riders were estimated at 42 or 32.6 percent, all living north of
the Mississippi River.
The Anoka Station had a total of 213 riders, 190 or 89.2 percent lived in the draw area north of
the Mississippi River. This draw area includes the cities of Anoka, Andover, Ramsey, Nowthen,
Oak Grove, and St. Francis, with inflow riders from portions of Dayton and Champlin. Northstar
users represented 3.2 percent of the 5,990 Minneapolis employees living in the draw area.
Thirteen of the Anoka riders lived south of the Mississippi River.
Coon Rapids Draw Area had an estimated 8,828 residents employed in Minneapolis with 165 or
1.9 percent that rode the Northstar. This draw area includes the cities of Coon Rapids, Andover,
and Ham Lake. Inflow riders (32) represented 16.2 percent of the users.
The Fridley Station had the lowest number of users (34) with 22 living in the draw area for a 0.7
percent market share of the 3,384 estimated Minneapolis employees. Draw area riders included
riders from Fridley, Spring Lake Park, Hilltop, and Columbia Heights and represented 64.7
percent of the riders and inflow was 35.3 percent.
Big Lake Station and Elk River Station have the highest rider market shares at 30.2 percent and
19.9 percent, respectively. This may be due to their further distance from Minneapolis. Market
share increases with distance from Minneapolis; while the number of Minneapolis employees
decreases with distance from the city.
Fridley Commuting
While most Northstar riders are traveling to Target Field, some riders are disembarking at other
stations. The potential for commuting from Fridley to other stations is demonstrated in Table 23. In 2010, 6,470 residents of the Fridley Station Draw Area worked in Coon Rapids. They
represented 6.9 percent of the employed draw area residents. Fridley Station Draw Area
residents that work in the other station cities are also shown. The work location in each station
city is unknown, but some jobs may be within walking distance of a station or could be reached
by a connecting bus.
Table 2-3
FRIDLEY STATION DRAW AREA RESIDENT COM M UTING; 2010
RESIDENTS THAT WORK IN OTHER STATION CITIES
Workers
Station City
Number
Big Lake
Elk River
Ramsey
Anoka
Coon Rapids
M inneapolis
53
373
629
2,380
6,470
3,384
Percent
0.1 %
0.4
0.7
2.5
6.9
20.8
So urce: U.S. Census B ureau, Center fo r Eco no mic Studies and M cCo mb Gro up, Ltd.
2-4
Commuting opportunities are represented by employees working in station area cities that reside
in other station draw areas. In 2010, 3,788 workers employed in Fridley lived in the Coon
Rapids Station Draw Area, as shown in Table 2-4. This represented 14.3 percent of Coon Rapids
employment. Additional Fridley employees from other station city draw areas are shown in
Table 2-4. Reverse commuting to Fridley by workers from other stations would require a bus or
shuttle to meet the train and transport workers to their destination if they did not work near the
station. The employee work locations are unknown. These reverse (outbound) commuters are
served by only one train each way, which reduces the potential for reverse commuting.
Table 2-4
FRIDLEY WORKERS THAT LIVE
IN OTHER STATION DRAW AREAS; 2010
Work in
Fridley
Station Draw Area
Big Lake
Elk River
Ramsey
Anoka
Coon Rapids
Minneapolis
145
167
730
2,727
3,788
1,647
Percent
0.5 %
0.6
2.8
10.3
14.3
6.2
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies and
McComb Group, Ltd.
2-5
Chapter III
REGIONAL ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC FRAMEWORK
This chapter provides an overview of regional employment and demographic trends to illustrate
the relationship between the station area cities and the larger Minneapolis-St. Paul region. The
following sections of this Regional Economic and Demographic Framework are presented to
provide the context of the station cities within the Eleven County Minneapolis-St. Paul
Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). In some cases, detailed analysis will be based on the
Seven-County Metropolitan Area (Metropolitan Area) adjusted to include Sherburne County.
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
1
The MSA is the nation’s 15th largest MSA. Employment growth in the MSA , as shown in
Table 3-1, was interrupted by the great recession, which began in December 2007. Employment
increased between 2001 and 2007 at a modest annual rate of 1.07 percent. MSA employment
peaked in 2007 with 2,209,659, declined to 2,127,674 in 2010, and began a slow recovery to
2,168,451 in 2011.
Table 3-1
M SA AND ANOKA AND SHERBURNE COUNTIES
TOTAL EM PLOYM ENT; 2001 TO 2011
Year
M SA
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2,072,916
2,063,216
2,070,706
2,102,568
2,146,233
2,179,756
2,209,659
2,204,264
2,134,490
2,127,674
2,168,451
Anoka
County
148,362
148,660
151,693
154,939
159,570
161,558
163,248
160,397
154,041
150,589
153,523
Sherburne
County
28,577
29,538
30,915
31,904
32,926
33,346
33,918
33,312
32,393
32,329
32,931
So urce: U.S. Department o f Co mmerce, B ureau o f Eco no mic A nalysis.1
The MSA’s four largest industries are Health Care, Government, Retail Trade, and
Manufacturing, as shown in Table 3-2. Industries that experienced strong growth between 2001
and 2011 include the Health Care and Social Assistance (65,000); Real Estate, Rental and
Leasing (28,313); Finance and Insurance (26,421); Education Services (22,871); and
Professional, Scientific, and Tech Services (20,104). Industries that lost employment between
2001 and 2011 include Manufacturing (45,259); Construction (25,506); Retail Trade (18,158);
and Information (12,316).
Anoka County employment grew steadily between 2001 and 2007, as shown in Table 3-1.
Between 2001 and 2007, employment in Anoka County increased from 148,362 to 163,248, an
1 Employment data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) includes private wage and salary, sole proprietors, and
government jobs. BEA compiles the data from multiple sources, resulting in a one- to two-year lag from the current year.
3-1
3-2
Industry
1,249
1,170
5,256
109,161
223,913
100,412
219,055
56,528
58,428
130,595
68,495
145,552
61,020
117,853
40,107
187,992
46,126
122,126
107,028
229,149
2001
2,061,194
2,072,916
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Total Employment
Percent Change
Non-Farm Employment
Percent Change
Forestry, Fishing, and Related Activities
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Professional, Scientific, and Tech Svs
Mgmt of Companies and Enterprises
Administrative and Waste Mgmt Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation and Food Services
Other Services, Except Public Admin
Government and Govt Enterprises
2,063,216
(0.47) %
2,052,440
(0.42) %
1,102
1,074
4,856
108,911
210,802
97,367
218,442
50,673
54,300
133,246
72,573
142,971
57,377
116,144
43,463
197,234
48,882
123,486
110,574
229,200
2002
2,070,706
0.36 %
2,060,158
0.38 %
482
585
4,675
110,743
204,763
95,742
218,765
50,409
50,552
136,461
77,494
142,542
55,218
116,626
44,566
204,708
49,846
125,294
110,476
230,193
2003
2,102,568
1.54 %
2,092,573
1.57 %
540
565
4,595
114,695
202,414
97,261
218,410
52,488
49,076
137,065
83,815
148,444
59,098
120,111
46,670
211,278
50,378
129,356
110,323
230,754
2004
2,146,233
2.08 %
2,136,373
2.09 %
1,038
1,155
4,739
118,581
204,406
99,857
221,426
53,937
49,648
139,483
90,772
150,622
58,198
122,809
48,278
215,048
51,844
132,992
110,931
235,567
2005
2,179,756
1.56 %
2,170,489
1.60 %
1,060
1,307
6,550
115,935
203,188
103,183
220,339
62,014
48,651
140,512
93,916
155,678
60,091
128,599
51,890
225,431
53,741
134,887
112,244
239,639
2006
2,209,659
1.37 %
2,200,473
1.38 %
1,408
1,602
5,305
111,602
200,508
103,815
220,748
58,424
49,987
143,772
95,786
164,340
61,119
131,093
53,152
234,665
55,934
136,693
103,355
240,497
2007
MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL MSA NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY; 2001 TO 2011
Table 3-2
2,204,264
(0.24) %
2,195,369
(0.23) %
1,525
1,525
5,710
104,419
195,695
101,395
213,675
59,288
49,450
147,944
94,101
165,824
65,482
126,017
55,526
242,344
57,889
136,475
113,730
240,645
2008
2,134,490
(3.17) %
2,124,940
(3.21) %
1,538
1,225
5,949
87,520
178,435
94,129
203,187
58,828
46,762
152,696
90,584
159,949
64,417
116,806
57,670
244,245
57,822
131,843
110,919
240,008
2009
2,127,674
(0.32) %
2,118,015
(0.33) %
1,528
1,214
4,874
81,681
173,718
91,092
199,824
57,819
46,163
151,542
95,670
160,906
64,551
123,933
59,810
245,212
57,233
131,112
109,648
241,392
2010
2,168,451
1.92 %
2,159,266
1.95 %
1,587
1,411
4,912
83,655
178,654
92,842
200,897
58,788
46,112
157,016
96,808
165,656
66,405
131,208
62,978
252,992
58,403
134,547
111,212
236,940
2011
annual rate of 1.61 percent. Employment declined to 150,589 in 2010, a decline of 7.8 percent,
and increased to 153,523 in 2011. In that year, Anoka County represented 7.1 percent of the
MSA employment. Manufacturing is the largest industry in Anoka County with 21,084 jobs in
2011, as shown in Table 3-3. The largest industries in Anoka County are the same as the MSA
and include Health Care; Government; Retail; and Manufacturing. Anoka County experienced
the largest employment growth in the Health Care (2,933) and Finance and Insurance industries
(1,897).
Other employment categories recording steadily increasing employment
notwithstanding the recession include: Professional, Scientific, and Tech Services (1,417); Real
Estate and Rental and Leasing (1,832); Management of Companies and Enterprises (283); and
Administrative Services (864). The changes in employment in Anoka County were similar to the
changes experienced by the MSA as a whole. The largest decline was recorded in
Manufacturing, which lost 4,142 jobs between 2001 and 2011.
Sherburne County employment trends are similar to Anoka County, as shown in Table 3-4.
Employment increased from 28,577 in 2001 to 33,918 in 2007, an annual growth rate of 2.90
percent. Employment declined to 32,329 in 2010, a decrease of 4.7 percent. Employment
increased to 32,931 in 2011, which represented 1.5 percent of MSA employment. Major
employers in Sherburne County in 2011 were Health Care; Government; Retail Trade; and
Manufacturing. Health Care is also the largest industry in Sherburne County and accounted for
over 44 percent of the new jobs created in the county. Employment categories that recorded
generally increasing employment trends between 2001 and 2010 included: Finance and
Insurance (350); Real Estate and Rental and Leasing (698); Professional, Scientific, and
Technical Services (395); Management of Companies and Enterprises (224); and Administrative
Services (291) to name a few. The Construction and Retail Trade industries lost 429 and 523
jobs, respectively, between 2001 and 2011.
Corridor Employment
Corridor cities have experienced differing employment trends over the past decade, as shown in
Table 3-5. In most corridor cities (Coon Rapids, Anoka, Ramsey, Elk River, and Big Lake),
employment increased between 2000 and 2007 or 2008 when the great recession caused
employment to decline. In each city, except Elk River, employment declined through 2010 and
then recovered in 2011. In four corridor cities (Coon Rapids, Ramsey, Elk River, and Big Lake),
employment in 2011 was higher than in 2000. Elk River and Coon Rapids had the largest
increases in employment of the corridor cities increasing by 2,360 and 2,086 jobs, respectively,
in the past decade. Ramsey grew by 1,141 and Big Lake employment increased by 332.
Fridley and Anoka recorded generally declining employment trends. In Fridley, employment
was in a downward trend from 2000 to 2006. Employment increased in 2007, and then declined
during the recession, and then recovered in 2011. Over this period, Fridley lost 4,356 jobs.
Anoka employment fluctuated in a narrow range between 2000 and 2006, increased to 13,674 in
2008, and ended at 12,826 for a net loss of 471 jobs.
Minneapolis, the terminal city for the Northstar Corridor, has experienced a steadily declining
employment trend. Employment declined from 308,758 in 2000 to 285,883 in 2004, increased to
294,370 in 2006, and then declined to 280,899 in 2009. By 2011, employment had recovered to
287,640 jobs. Minneapolis has 21,118 fewer jobs in 2011 than in 2000. As the destination for
most Northstar Corridor commuters, employment trends in Minneapolis are important.
3-3
3-4
147,517
148,362
Total Employment
Percent Change
Non-Farm Employment
Percent Change
2001
217
66
13,699
25,226
5,714
19,463
1,590
3,950
5,692
6,249
558
7,952
1,800
13,767
3,082
8,422
8,776
15,341
Industry
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Information
148,660
0.20 %
147,875
0.24 %
13,735
23,219
6,201
20,048
1,444
4,205
6,107
6,223
435
7,610
2,060
13,982
3,324
8,866
9,043
15,216
2002
151,693
2.04 %
150,921
2.06 %
14,343
22,951
6,295
20,248
1,438
4,384
6,576
6,538
590
8,245
1,979
14,346
3,464
9,166
9,271
15,265
2003
154,939
2.14 %
154,226
2.19 %
14,969
23,011
6,398
20,545
1,312
4,491
7,283
6,847
602
8,825
2,043
14,501
3,513
9,471
9,191
15,525
2004
159,570
2.99 %
158,878
3.02 %
15,110
23,558
6,210
21,428
1,465
4,748
7,804
7,025
670
8,917
2,157
14,872
3,458
9,815
9,296
16,376
2005
161,558
1.25 %
160,928
1.29 %
14,629
23,657
6,502
21,173
1,465
4,728
8,199
6,990
712
9,302
2,264
15,348
3,643
9,897
9,652
16,697
2006
163,248
1.05 %
162,635
1.06 %
267
90
13,778
24,264
6,517
21,461
1,518
5,010
7,912
7,262
577
9,458
2,300
15,823
3,660
10,109
17,317
2007
ANOKA COUNTY NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY; 2001 TO 2011
Table 3-3
160,397
(1.75) %
159,817
(1.73) %
316
116
12,303
23,121
6,278
20,386
1,536
5,329
7,381
7,214
380
9,854
2,407
16,485
4,071
10,062
9,611
17,395
2008
154,041
(3.96) %
153,392
(4.02) %
288
93
10,471
21,138
5,800
19,017
1,375
5,896
7,314
7,095
718
8,943
2,419
16,841
4,228
9,701
9,680
17,096
2009
150,589
(2.24) %
149,929
(2.26) %
282
81
9,808
20,354
5,695
18,452
1,241
5,650
7,359
7,122
844
8,510
2,355
16,546
4,276
9,434
9,714
16,842
2010
153,523
1.95 %
152,908
1.99 %
281
92
9,921
21,084
5,723
18,496
1,257
5,847
7,524
7,666
841
8,816
2,463
16,700
4,422
9,674
9,743
16,455
2011
3-5
27,739
28,577
Total Employment
Percent Change
Non-Farm Employment
Percent Change
2001
2,868
3,091
4,218
1,052
426
720
912
832
117
982
263
2,856
443
1,833
1,765
3,625
Industry
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Information
29,538
3.36 %
28,764
3 70 %
3.70
2,964
2,985
4,384
1,105
414
823
1,107
839
142
1,057
287
2,939
490
1,848
1,911
3,682
2002
30,915
4.66 %
30,176
4 9911 %
4.
3,160
3,297
4,374
1,184
288
843
1,144
841
227
1,045
330
3,328
524
2,024
2,017
3,728
2003
31,904
3.20 %
31,218
3 4455 %
3.
3,395
3,394
4,029
1,192
242
901
1,167
1,027
251
1,174
343
3,658
511
1,954
2,065
3,947
2004
32,926
3.20 %
32,265
3 35 %
3.35
3,458
3,446
4,109
1,246
268
907
1,394
1,141
194
1,202
367
3,884
540
1,995
2,126
4,031
2005
33,346
1.28 %
32,738
1 47 %
1.47
819
3,333
3,374
971
4,216
1,230
282
921
1,465
1,149
241
1,162
336
4,102
532
2,055
2,150
4,177
2006
33,918
1.72 %
33,330
1 81 %
1.81
3,114
3,487
1,061
4,161
289
1,012
1,498
1,219
223
1,052
399
4,395
542
1,991
2,192
4,328
2007
SHERBURNE COUNTY NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY; 2001 TO 2011
Table 3-4
33,312
(1.79) %
32,741
(1.77)
77) %
2,703
3,486
3,935
1,287
264
1,015
1,555
1,313
299
998
397
4,478
547
1,940
2,144
4,325
2008
32,393
(2.76) %
31,784
(2 92) %
(2.92)
2,354
3,103
1,075
3,731
239
1,111
1,515
1,274
301
1,018
377
4,642
557
1,825
2,186
4,325
2009
32,329
(0.20) %
31,714
(0 22) %
(0.22)
2,172
3,100
3,678
1,262
191
1,040
1,594
1,208
333
1,231
388
4,734
557
1,712
2,219
4,352
2010
32,931
1.86 %
32,344
1 99 %
1.99
2,439
3,118
3,695
1,319
213
1,070
1,610
1,227
341
1,273
406
4,769
534
1,762
2,209
4,368
2011
Table 3-5
CORRIDOR COM M UNITIES EM PLOYM ENT; 2000 TO 2011
Year
M inneapolis
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Percent Change
Fridley
308,758
305,880
294,162
286,631
285,883
287,552
294,370
292,833
291,019
280,899
281,577
287,640
(0.64) %
26,279
26,042
24,762
23,885
23,593
23,860
23,691
24,489
23,050
22,122
21,377
21,923
(1.63) %
Coon
Rap ids
Anoka
21,496
21,695
22,546
23,687
23,563
23,895
24,151
24,579
24,747
23,464
23,150
23,582
0.85 %
Elk
River
Ramsey
13,297
13,114
13,279
13,302
13,031
13,199
13,287
13,392
13,674
12,806
12,690
12,826
(0.33) %
3,901
4,019
4,023
4,371
4,952
4,985
5,152
4,994
5,277
4,977
4,757
5,042
2.36 %
Big Lake
8,864
9,798
10,025
10,272
10,423
10,302
10,608
10,771
10,709
10,682
10,950
11,224
2.17 %
1,716
1,800
1,755
1,843
1,903
2,095
2,212
2,292
2,325
2,173
2,083
2,048
1.62 %
So urce: M inneso ta Department o f Emplo yment and Eco no mic Develo pment (QCEW data).
Major Industries and Drivers
Comparing the percentage of jobs in each industry illustrates the economic drivers in Anoka and
Sherburne Counties. Both Anoka and Sherburne Counties have a larger percentage of jobs in
Manufacturing than the MSA. Anoka County has 14 percent of its employment in
Manufacturing and Sherburne County 10 percent compared to only eight percent in the MSA, as
shown in Figure 3-1.
Figure 3-1
EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY AS PERCENT OF TOTAL
MSA AND ANOKA AND SHERBURNE COUNTIES
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional and technical services
Management of companies and enterprises
Administrative and waste services
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation and food services
Other services, except public administration
Government and government enterprises
0%
2%
Minneapolis MSA
4%
6%
Anoka County
3-6
8%
10%
12%
14%
Sherburne County
16%
Anoka County has a high percentage of Retail jobs with 13 percent compared to 10 percent in
the MSA. Sherburne and Anoka Counties have 7.5 to 8.0 percent Construction employment,
which indicates higher housing growth in these counties. Over 15 percent of jobs in Sherburne
County are in Health Care, making it the largest industry in the county.
Major Employers
The largest employers in the corridor are located mainly in Anoka, Fridley, and Coon Rapids.
The largest is Medtronic, Inc. in Fridley with 3,076 employees. Seven of the fifteen major
employers identified on Figure 2-3 are located within one mile of a Northstar commuter rail
station.
Figure 3-2
NORTHSTAR CORRIDOR MAJOR EMPLOYERS
3-7
Fridley Employment
Employment in Fridley increased by 1,064 employees from 2002 to 2005 and declined by 7,709
employees in 2006 to 28,736. Fridley employment averaged 28,606 from 2006 to 2010, as
employment stabilized, as shown in Table 3-6.
Industry categories with growing employment trends from 2002 to 2010 include: Utilities;
Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Real Estate and Rental and Leasing; Professional, Scientific and
Technical Services; Management of Companies and Enterprises; Administration and Support;
Educational Services; and Public Administration. Categories with declining trends include
Agriculture; Construction; Manufacturing; Transportation and Warehousing; Information;
Finance and Insurance; Health Care and Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation;
Accommodations and Food Services; and Other Services. Employment in this table differs
slightly from Table 3-5 because it is derived from a different database from the U.S. Census
Bureau that provides more complete reporting of employment by industry.
Table 3-6
FRIDLEY EM PLOYM ENT TRENDS; 2002 TO 2010
Jobs by NAICS Industry Sector
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Agriculture, Forestry , Fishing and Hunting
Utilities
Construction
M anufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
43
1
1,611
15,181
1,714
6,704
1,664
38
1,440
15,110
1,998
7,362
1,549
39
1
1,463
15,337
1,829
7,060
1,540
16
1,498
16,190
1,886
7,229
1,076
22
1,477
10,469
2,191
6,496
1,014
Office Inclined Industries
Information
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
M anagement of Comp anies and Enterprises
Admin & Sup port
Subtotal
53
155
214
477
103
632
1,634
40
143
237
878
119
950
2,367
38
131
237
749
108
780
2,043
75
200
244
943
118
1,091
2,671
Other Services (excluding Public Admin.)
Public Administration
477
3,014
280
2,153
608
293
465
3,067
290
1,987
586
304
480
3,050
225
2,210
574
325
35,381
36,563
36,181
Total All Jobs
Percent
Change
2008
2009
2010
24
1
1,549
10,877
2,132
6,614
1,001
42
2
1,411
9,340
1,770
6,725
1,011
33
5
1,252
9,715
1,714
6,590
940
31
6
1,124
9,254
1,903
7,357
913
(4.0) %
25.1
(4.4)
(6.0)
1.3
1.2
(7.2)
82
185
181
595
260
1,425
2,728
109
214
192
633
261
1,291
2,700
82
124
161
656
97
2,016
3,136
33
127
316
630
137
1,156
2,399
43
126
277
606
197
1,487
2,736
(2.6) %
(2.6)
3.3
3.0
8.4
11.3
6.7 %
508
2,355
231
1,872
600
313
610
2,260
216
427
524
299
651
2,656
113
429
547
307
593
2,840
112
535
572
331
649
2,981
77
638
552
347
617
2,770
95
659
587
324
3.3 %
(1.0)
(12.6)
(13.8)
(0.4)
1.3
36,445
28,736
29,603
28,423
27,892
28,376
(2.7) %
S o urc e : U.S . C e ns us B ure a u, OnThe M a p Applic a tio n a nd LEHD Origin-De s tina tio n Em plo ym e nt.
Office-inclined industries are important categories that are likely to occupy office space and
represent potential demand. Employment in office-inclined industries increased from 1,634 in
2002 to a high of 3,136 in 2008, and decreased to 2,736 in 2010. Assuming 250 square feet per
employee, demand for office space would have been about 408,500 square feet in 2002
increasing to about 784,000 square feet in 2008, before decreasing to 684,000 square feet in
2010, an increase of 67.4 percent since 2002.
POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS
The MSA added over 311,000 persons between 2000 and 2010, an annual growth rate of 1.0
percent, as shown in Table 3-7. Anoka County grew at the same annual growth rate as the MSA
(1.0 percent), adding 32,760 persons or 10.5 percent of total MSA growth. Sherburne County
grew by 24,082 people in the past decade, which is an annual growth rate of increase of 3.2
3-8
percent. Sherburne County captured 7.7 percent of the population growth in the MSA between
2000 and 2010.
Table 3-7
TWIN CITIES AREA POPULATION; 2000 TO 2010
Change 2000 to 2010
Growth
Number
Change
Rate
Percent
of MSA
Growth
Place
2000
2010
Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA
Metropolitan Area
Corridor Counties
Anoka
Sherburne
Total
2,968,806
2,642,056
3,279,833
2,849,567
311,027
207,511
31,103
20,751
1.0 %
0.8
100.0 %
66.7
298,084
64,417
362,501
330,844
88,499
419,343
32,760
24,082
56,842
3,276
2,408
5,684
1.0
3.2
1.5 %
10.5
7.7
18.3 %
Source: U.S. Census.
The MSA added over 136,000 households between 2000 and 2010, an average of over 13,000
annually, as shown in Table 3-8. Anoka and Sherburne Counties grew at an annual rate of 1.3
percent and 3.4 percent, respectively, compared to 1.1 percent for the MSA. Anoka County
added 14,799 households during this period compared to 8,631 additional households in
Sherburne County.
Table 3-8
TWIN CITIES AREA HOUSEHOLDS; 2000 TO 2010
Change 2000 to 2010
Growth
Number
Change
Rate
Percent
of MSA
Growth
Place
2000
2010
Metropolitan Area
Corridor Counties
Anoka
Sherburne
Total
1,136,615
1,021,454
1,272,677
1,117,749
136,062
96,295
13,606
9,630
1.1 %
0.9
100.0 %
70.8
106,428
21,581
128,009
121,227
30,212
151,439
14,799
8,631
23,430
1,480
863
2,343
1.3
3.4
1.7 %
10.9
6.3
17.2 %
The Northstar cities added 14,376 people over the past decade, which is about five percent of the
growth in the MSA, as shown in Table 3-9. Ramsey, Elk River, and Big Lake captured the
majority of population and household growth in the study corridor. Elk River increased the most
in population and households of any of the corridor communities with 6,527 new residents in
2,416 households. Ramsey increased in population by 5,158 people and 2,127 households. Big
Lake’s population and households increased by 3,997 and 1,260, respectively. Coon Rapids is
the largest of the cities in the corridor with a population of 61,476 people in 2010, but lost
population despite an increase of 954 households due to declining household size. The older,
inner ring suburbs in the corridor such as Fridley, Coon Rapids, and Anoka experienced a loss in
population during the decade, while the more exurban communities grew at rates much higher
than the MSA.
3-9
Table 3-9
CORRIDOR COM M UNITIES POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS; 2000 TO 2010
Community
Change
Growth
Number
Rate
Percent of Corridor
2000
2010
2010
Change
POPULATION
Fridley
Coon Rapids
Anoka
Ramsey
Elk River
Big Lake
Total
27,449
61,607
18,076
18,510
16,447
6,063
148,152
27,208
61,476
17,142
23,668
22,974
10,060
162,528
(241)
(131)
(934)
5,158
6,527
3,997
14,376
(0.1) %
(0.0)
(0.5)
2.5
3.4
5.2
0.9 %
16.7 %
37.8
10.5
14.6
14.1
6.2
100.0 %
(1.7) %
(0.9)
(6.5)
35.9
45.4
27.8
100.0 %
HOUS EHOLDS
Fridley
Coon Rapids
Anoka
Ramsey
Elk River
Big Lake
Total
11,328
22,578
7,262
5,906
5,664
2,117
54,855
11,110
23,532
7,060
8,033
8,080
3,377
61,192
(218)
954
(202)
2,127
2,416
1,260
6,337
(0.2) %
0.4
(0.3)
3.1
3.6
4.8
1.1 %
18.2 %
38.5
11.5
13.1
13.2
5.5
100.0 %
(3.4) %
15.1
(3.2)
33.6
38.1
19.9
100.0 %
So urce: U.S. Census.
Population and Household Forecasts
Population and household forecasts developed by the State Demographer for 2010, 2020, and
2030 are shown in Table 3-10. The Metropolitan Area is projected to grow at a rate of 0.6
percent. The expected annual rate of growth for Anoka and Sherburne Counties is an indication
of the expected capture of Metropolitan Area growth for the Northstar Corridor. Anoka County
population is expected to grow at an annual rate of 0.8 percent. Sherburne County population is
expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.4 percent, higher than both the MSA and Metropolitan
Area forecast of less than 1.0 percent per year.
Table 3-10
NORTHSTAR CORRIDOR POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD FORECAST; 2010 TO 2030
Community
POPULATION
M inneapolis-St. Paul M SA
M etropolitan Area
Corridor Counties
Anoka
Sherburne
Total
HOUS EHOLDS
M inneapolis-St. Paul M SA
M etropolitan Area
Corridor Counties
Anoka
Sherburne
Total
Change
Growth
Rate
2010
2020
2030
Number
3,248,430
2,906,470
3,583,220
3,134,270
3,828,560
3,286,970
580,130
380,500
0.8 % 29,007
0.6
19,025
352,070
101,570
453,640
373,480
134,360
507,840
411,630
161,990
573,620
59,560
60,420
119,980
0.8
2.4
1.2 %
1,263,000
1,141,070
1,416,680
1,253,360
1,539,000
1,335,970
276,000
194,900
1.0 % 13,800
0.8
9,745
132,570
35,470
168,040
154,350
48,110
202,460
167,040
59,900
226,940
34,470
24,430
58,900
So urce: M inneso ta State Demo graphic Center.
3-10
1.2
2.7
1.5 %
Change
2,978
3,021
5,999
1,724
1,222
2,945
Household forecasts show households growing faster than population in the MSA, Metropolitan
Area, and Anoka and Sherburne Counties. Sherburne County households are expected to grow
at a 2.7 percent annual growth rate; while Anoka County is expected to grow at a 1.2 percent
annual growth rate.
3-11
Chapter IV
NORTHSTAR CORRIDOR RESIDENTIAL MARKET CONDITIONS
This chapter summarizes the current residential market conditions in the MSA and along the
Northstar Corridor. Residential market conditions are analyzed to provide a framework for
identifying viable residential development options at the Fridley Station.
RESIDENTIAL MARKET
There were over 156,000 new housing units permitted in the MSA between 2000 and 2011, as
shown in Table 4-1, which is an average of 13,058 units per year. Single family units comprised
45 percent of all the units permitted, while attached homes were 20 percent and multi-family
units were 35 percent of the total units. Building permits peaked in 2003 at 21,283 units and
declined steadily to 4,290 in 2009 before recovering to 5,725 units in 2010.
There were 20,698 units permitted in Anoka County between 2000 and 2011, which was 13
percent of residential construction in the MSA. Sixty-three percent of the units permitted in
Anoka County were single family homes and 26 percent were townhomes and duplexes. Only
11 percent were multi-family units including both condos and apartments. Building permits in
Anoka County peaked at 3,336 units in 2004, one year later than the MSA, and declined steadily
to 492 in 2009, a decline of 85 percent. Building permits recovered to 685 in 2010. Anoka
County’s market share of MSA building permits has held up well. Market share was 11 percent
in 2000, increased to 16 percent in 2004, declined to 11 percent in 2008 and 2009, and then
recovered to 12 percent in 2010.
Sherburne County permitted 9,213 units over the past decade, which was six percent of the units
permitted in the MSA. Units in Sherburne County were predominately single family units at 95
percent, with townhomes comprising two percent and multi-family units three percent of the
total. Sherburne County building permits peaked in 2003 at 1,596 units and declined steadily to
89 units in 2009, a decline of 94 percent. Market share of MSA building permits ranged from six
to seven percent between 2000 and 2006 and then declined to two percent in 2008, 2009, 2010,
and 2011.
The Northstar Corridor communities permitted 8,909 housing units between 2000 and 2011,
which is 5.7 percent of the MSA total, as shown in Table 4-2. Elk River and Ramsey permitted
the most units between 2000 and 2011, with 2,662 and 2,413 units, respectively. Coon Rapids
and Big Lake each permitted over 1,600 units. Fridley and Anoka permitted the least number of
units, with 385 and 147 units, respectively. Fridley permitted 385 units, which was 4.3 percent
of the total units permitted in the corridor. Like the MSA as a whole, residential construction in
the corridor communities dropped off sharply after 2006.
4-1
4-2
1,704
339
16
2,059
11%
1,108
70
109
1,287
7%
Anoka County
Single Family Detached
Townhome/ Duplex
Condo/ Apartment
Anoka Total
Percent of MSA
Sherburne County
Townhome/ Duplex
Condo/ Apartment
Sherburne Total
Percent of MSA
1,027
68
34
1,129
6%
1,706
473
254
2,433
13%
8,858
3,473
5,837
18,168
2001
1,075
26
8
1,109
6%
1,685
542
415
2,642
13%
8,276
3,577
8,307
20,160
2002
1,520
20
56
1,596
7%
1,824
979
145
2,948
14%
9,034
4,835
7,414
21,283
2003
Source: US Census C-40, Metropolitan Council, Economic & Planning Systems, Inc., and McComb Group, Ltd.
9,541
3,567
5,019
18,127
2000
Townhome/ Duplex
Condo/ Apartment
MSA Total
Area
1,501
4
32
1,537
7%
1,768
1,029
539
3,336
16%
8,244
5,126
7,401
20,771
2004
1,163
5
1,168
7%
1,217
837
324
2,378
14%
6,877
3,795
6,375
17,047
2005
722
722
6%
830
610
40
1,480
12%
5,251
2,961
4,208
12,420
2006
333
333
4%
638
208
282
1,128
13%
3,650
1,861
2,934
8,445
2007
108
108
2%
295
123
161
579
11%
2,282
960
1,865
5,107
2008
89
89
2%
415
41
36
492
11%
2,469
561
1,260
4,290
2009
RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS: MSA AND ANOKA AND SHERBURNE COUNTIES; 2000 TO 2011
Table 4-1
82
53
135
2%
509
118
58
685
12%
2,792
614
2,319
5,725
2010
65
17
82
2%
538
538
10%
3,756
24
1,368
5,148
2011
8,793
188
314
9,295
6%
13,129
5,299
2,270
20,698
13%
71,030
31,354
54,307
156,691
Total
95 %
2
3
100 %
63 %
26
11
100 %
45 %
20
35
100 %
Percent
of Total
Table 4-2
MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL MSA AND NORTHSTAR CORRIDOR CITIES RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS; 2000 TO 2011
Year
MSA
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Total
18,127
18,168
20,160
21,283
20,771
17,047
12,420
8,445
5,107
4,290
5,725
5,148
156,691
Coon
Rapids
Fridley
20
42
11
144
11
27
9
3
1
1
44
72
385
142
286
221
319
282
171
155
73
4
9
10
21
1,693
Anoka
Elk
River
Ramsey
NA
10
15
38
16
10
4
2
26
2
22
2
147
91
85
219
454
564
391
176
230
75
45
60
23
2,413
Big
Lake
284
256
244
550
547
344
250
116
25
20
15
11
2,662
306
167
155
236
206
199
147
72
11
25
28
57
1,609
Total
843
846
865
1,741
1,626
1,142
741
496
142
102
179
186
8,909
% of
MSA
4.7 %
4.7
4.3
8.2
7.8
6.7
6.0
5.9
2.8
2.4
3.1
3.6
5.7 %
Source: US Census, Northstar Corridor Communities, Economic & Planning Systems, Inc., and McComb Group, Ltd.
For-Sale Market
The Case Schiller home price index tracks the growth in the value of residential real estate by
tracking the original purchase price and resale price of homes. The index tracks the major metro
areas in the U.S. and compiles a 10 and 20 city composite index for comparison. The
Minneapolis metro area home price index peaked in early 2006 and reached its bottom in
January 2011, as shown in Figure 4-1. Minneapolis home price index has matched closely with
Chicago’s home price index over the past 10 years. Minneapolis home prices did not rise as high
as the composite 20 city index but prices dropped to a level almost as low as in 2000. The
recession coupled with the financial crisis had a major impact on consumer confidence,
employment and wages, and consequently on home values.
Figure 4-1
MINNEAPOLIS AND SELECTED CITIES HOME PRICE INDEX; 2000 TO 2011
275
Minneapolis
250
Chicago
Denver
225
Seattle
San Diego
200
Composite 20
175
150
125
100
75
50
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Source: Case Schiller.
4-3
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
The average price for a new home in the Twin Cities area was $376,000 in 2011, as shown in
Table 4-3. The price for new single family home is up slightly from the average price found in
2005, but down $60,000 (13.7 percent) from the 2007 peak of $436,000. The average price for a
previously owned single family home in the Twin Cities area was $202,000 in 2011, which was
down $93,000 (31.5 percent) from the 2006 high of $295,000. The average price for previously
owned townhomes decreased 36.0 percent and condos prices were down 25.2 percent from 2005.
The average price for previously owned homes has not rebounded from the drop in prices that
started in 2006. Average home prices in 2010 were up from the 2009 average, but dropped again
in 2011. It appears that the average home prices in the Twin Cities area have reached bottom
and are beginning to recover. Average sales prices for newly constructed units have been
increasing, but new homes sales accounted for only six percent of all sales in the Twin Cities
area in 2011.
Table 4-3
TWIN CITIES AREA AVERAGE HOM E PRICE; 2005 TO 2011
% Change
2005-2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
New Construction
Annual % Change
$ 372,138
---
$ 415,435
11.6%
$ 436,211
5.0%
$ 422,106
-3.2%
$ 351,589
-16.7%
$ 356,803
1.5%
$ 376,418
5.5%
1.2%
Townhouse
Annual % Change
$ 249,135
---
$ 237,139
-4.8%
$ 235,094
-0.9%
$ 229,720
-2.3%
$ 195,671
-14.8%
$ 200,507
2.5%
$ 203,143
1.3%
-18.5%
Condo
Annual % Change
$ 265,124
---
$ 285,194
7.6%
$ 280,167
-1.8%
$ 339,799
21.3%
$ 348,884
2.7%
$ 286,442
-17.9%
$ 333,926
16.6%
26.0%
Previously Owned
Annual % Change
$ 289,741
---
$ 294,999
1.8%
$ 289,067
-2.0%
$ 238,439
-17.5%
$ 203,968
-14.5%
$ 221,595
8.6%
$ 202,119
-8.8%
-30.2%
Townhouse
Annual % Change
$ 206,116
---
$ 203,337
-1.3%
$ 206,337
1.5%
$ 176,992
-14.2%
$ 149,256
-15.7%
$ 150,735
1.0%
$ 131,824
-12.5%
-36.0%
Condo
Annual % Change
$ 173,922
---
$ 174,327
0.2%
$ 176,338
1.2%
$ 166,216
-5.7%
$ 140,297
-15.6%
$ 138,975
-0.9%
$ 130,103
-6.4%
-25.2%
S o urc e : M inne a po lis Are a As s o c ia tio n o f R e a lto rs , Ec o no m ic & P la nning S ys te m s , Inc ., a nd M c C o m b Gro up, Ltd.
Apartment Market
The Twin Cities area apartment market is recovering much faster than the for-sale market locally
and nationally. The apartment vacancy rate in the Twin Cities area was 2.4 percent in mid-2011,
which is considerably lower than the national average and down from over 5.0 percent in 2009.
The Northwest Suburban submarket, which includes the Northstar Corridor, had a vacancy rate
of 2.7 percent in the 2nd Quarter of 2011 and the average rent price was $907 per month, which is
slightly lower than the area wide average. The vacancy rates in downtown Minneapolis and
downtown St. Paul were 1.2 and 0.8 percent, respectively, in 2011, as shown in Table 4-4. This
drop in vacancy rate has lead to a steady growth in rental rates. The Twin Cities area average
rental rate was $921 per month in the 2nd Quarter of 2011, which is up from $908 at the end of
2010. Low vacancies and rent growth are spurring new construction.
According to the Cassidy Turley real estate brokerage firm, in the 2nd Quarter 2011, the
Northwest Suburban submarket had 1,060 apartment units proposed. The Twin Cities area had
8,593 proposed units and 1,814 units that were under construction. The proposed units in the
Northwest Suburban submarket (including the Northstar Corridor) were 12.3 percent of the Twin
4-4
Cities area total. Over 70 percent of the proposed units are within the cities of Minneapolis and
St. Paul. The low vacancy rates and rising rental rates in the Twin Cities area indicates a
growing demand for apartment units.
Table 4-4
TWIN CITIES AREA APARTMENT MARKET; 2ND QUARTER 2011
Submarket
Vacancy
Rate
Average
Rent
Units Under
Construction
Proposed
Units
Northwest Suburban
Downtown Minneapolis
Downtown St. Paul
Minneapolis
North Central Suburban
Northeast Suburban
South Central Suburban
Southeast Suburban
Southwest Suburban
St. Paul
2.7 %
1.2
0.8
2.3
2.8
2.3
2.3
2.7
2.4
2.4
$
907
1,213
1,133
844
837
802
890
975
1,015
832
297
70
886
561
-
1,060
2,505
327
2,904
55
1,257
150
335
Total Twin Cities Area
2.4 %
$
921
1,814
8,593
Source: Cassidy T urley.
FRIDLEY POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS
As of 2010, the population of Fridley was 27,208 and there were 11,110 households. The
population has decreased over the past decade by 241 people, as shown in Table 4-5. The
number of households also decreased, by 218 households, from 11,328 in 2000 to 11,110 in
2010. The number of vacant households increased from 176 to 650 over the 10-year span.
Table 4-5
CITY OF FRIDLEY
POPULATION, HOUSEHOLDS, AND TENURE; 2000 AND 2010
Description
Number
Change
Average
Annual
27,208
(241)
(24)
(0.1) %
3,657
7,671
11,328
2.40
3,839
7,271
11,110
2.44
182
(400)
(218)
18
(40)
(22)
0.5 %
(0.5)
(0.2) %
11,504
176
1.5 %
11,760
650
5.5 %
256
474
26
47
0.2 %
14.0
2000
2010
Population
27,449
Households
Renters
Owners
Total
Average Household Size
Housing Units
Vacant Units
Vacancy Rate
Source: U.S. Census, Economic & Planning Systems, Inc., and McComb Group, Ltd.
4-5
Growth
Rate
In 2010, 34.6 percent of households in Fridley were renters and 65.4 percent were owners, as
shown in Table 4-6. The percentage of renter households in Fridley is higher than the MSA in
which 28.6 percent of households are renters.
Table 4-6
CITY OF FRIDLEY AND MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL MSA
HOUSING TENURE; 2000 AND 2010
Household Type
2000
2010
Fridley
Renters
Owners
Total
32.3 %
67.7
100.0 %
34.6 %
65.4
100.0 %
Renters
Owners
Total
27.6 %
72.4
100.0 %
28.6 %
71.4
100.0 %
Source: U.S. Census and Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
The majority (63.5 percent) of households in Fridley are families (related by blood or marriage),
and over one-quarter of all households are families with children, as shown in Table 4-7. While
family households and households with children under the age of 18 have been decreasing
slightly, the number of family households with individuals aged 65 and older has increased by
2.8 percent annually, or 228 households between 2000 and 2010.
Table 4-7
CITY OF FRIDLEY
HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE; 2000 AND 2010
Household Type
Total Households
Family Households
With Individuals under 18
With Individuals 65 and Over
Non-Family Households
Householder Living Alone
2000
Number Percent
11,328
7,323
3,192
718
4,005
3,039
64.6 %
28.2
6.3
35.4
26.8
2010
Number Percent
11,110
7,057
3,038
946
4,053
3,196
63.5 %
27.3
8.5
36.5
28.8
Change
(218)
(266)
(154)
228
48
157
Growth
Rate
(0.2) %
(0.4)
(0.5)
2.8
0.1
0.5
Fridley has a slightly lower percentage of family households and family households with
individuals under 18 than the MSA and a slightly higher percentage of households with
individuals 65 and over, non-family households, and households with householder living alone,
as shown in Figure 4-2.
4-6
Figure 4-2
PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE; 2010
70%
Fridley
60%
MSA
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Family
Households
With Individuals With Individuals
under 18
65 and Over
Nonfamily
Households
Householder
Living Alone
The average age of householders in Fridley is very similar to the average age of householders in
the MSA, as shown in Table 4-8. Fridley has a higher percentage of householders between 35
and 44 and householders who are older than 65, compared to the MSA.
Table 4-8
HOUSEHOLDS BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER; 2010
City of
Fridley
Age of Householder
15 to 24 Years
25 to 34 Years
35 to 44 Years
45 to 54 Years
55 to 64 Years
65 Years and Over
Total
4.4 %
15.5
22.7
21.5
15.2
20.8
100.0 %
MSA
4.8 %
18.5
20.9
22.8
16.2
16.7
100.0 %
Average household income for residents in Fridley was $60,337 in 2010, which was 27.3 percent
lower than the MSA average of $83,023, as shown in Table 4-9. The median household income
in Anoka was $51,656 in 2010; while the MSA median household income was $65,181.
4-7
Table 4-9
CITY OF FRIDLEY AND M INNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL M SA
HOUSEHOLD INCOM E; 2010
Category
Average Household Income
M edian Household Income
Per Capita Income
City of
Fridley
M SA
$ 60,337
51,656
25,699
$ 83,023
65,181
32,852
S o urc e : 2000 U.s . C e ns us , 2006-2010 Am e ric a n C o m m unity S urve y 5-Ye a r
Es tim a te s , a nd Ec o no m ic & P la nning S ys te m s , Inc .
The largest household income bracket in Fridley is $50,000 to $74,999 (23.1 percent). Fridley
has more lower income households than the MSA, and fewer higher income households, as
shown in Figure 4-3.
Figure 4-3
HOUSEHOLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION; 2010
25%
Fridley
20%
Minneapolisa-St. Paul
MSA
15%
10%
5%
0%
0-$14,999
$15,000$24,999
$25,000$34,999
$35,000$49,999
$50,000$74,999
$75,000$99,999
$100,000$149,999
Over
$150,000
FRIDLEY RESIDENTIAL MARKET
A total of 411 housing units were built in Fridley between 2000 and 2012, or an average of 32
units per year. The peak of construction activity was in 2003 when 144 new units (130 multifamily and 4 single family) were built, as shown on Table 4-10. During 2000 to 2012, the
majority (80 percent) of new units built were multi-family units.
4-8
Table 4-10
FRIDLEY RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERM ITS; 2000 TO 2012
Year
Single
Family
Condo/
Townhome
Duplex
M ultiFamily
Total
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
16
14
9
4
7
7
8
3
1
1
3
2
7
0
28
2
30
4
19
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
0
0
110
0
1
0
0
0
0
41
70
19
20
42
11
144
11
27
9
3
1
1
44
72
26
S o urc e : C ity o f F ridle y.
For-Sale Market
From 2005 to 2012, there were 31 new home sales in Fridley indicating a low level of for-sale
housing construction, as shown in Table 4-11. Townhomes represented 25.8 percent of the new
homes, while one new condominium represented 3.2 percent of the new homes sold between
2005 and 2012. Sales volume has declined since 2005 when a total of 13 new homes were sold.
Development of attached housing products typically found in TOD housing developments is low,
with townhomes making up 26 percent of the units over the last seven years. At the current time,
there is little demand for townhomes due to the low cost of single family houses. As the price of
single family homes increases, townhomes are expected to become more popular.
Table 4-11
FRIDLEY HOME SALES, 2005 TO 2012
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Total
Percent
New Construction
Townhome
Condo
Subtotal
8
4
1
13
5
4
0
9
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
4
0
0
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
0
0
4
22
8
1
31
71.0 %
25.8
3.2
100.0 %
Previously Owned
Townhome
Condo
Subtotal
297
54
14
365
224
40
13
277
200
37
15
252
217
45
13
275
251
39
8
298
169
25
10
204
230
28
9
267
247
33
8
288
1,835
301
90
2,226
82.4 %
13.5
4.0
100.0 %
Total
378
286
252
276
302
204
267
292
2,257
Source: Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors and Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
New construction single family prices declined from an average of $372,033 in 2005 to $167,645
in 2012, a decrease of 54.9 percent.
4-9
The average sales price for a previously owned single family home in Fridley has dropped
40.3 percent from $224,383 in 2005 to $134,055 in 2012, as shown in Table 4-12. Previously
owned townhome and condominium home sale prices experienced similar declines. Previously
owned townhomes averaged $183,543 in 2005 and dropped to $94,889 in 2012, a 48.3 percent
decline. Previously owned condominiums average sales prices had the largest decline (69.5
percent), dropping from $103,463 in 2005 to $31,594 in 2012.
Table 4-12
FRIDLEY AVERAGE HOME SALE PRICE; 2005 TO 2012
`
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
% Change
New Construction
Annual % Change
$372,033
---
$435,975
17.19%
-----
$211,000
---
$172,975
-18.02%
-----
-----
$167,645
---
-54.9%
Townhome
Annual % Change
$181,950
---
$188,300
3.49%
-----
-----
-----
-----
-----
-----
---
Condo
Annual % Change
$108,300
---
-----
-----
-----
-----
-----
-----
-----
---
Previously Owned
Annual % Change
$224,383
---
$229,619
2.33%
$215,206
-6.28%
$181,250
-15.78%
$149,085
-17.75%
$148,137
-0.64%
$127,657
-13.83%
$134,055
5.01%
-40.3%
Townhome
Annual % Change
$183,543
---
$181,812
-0.94%
$175,832
-3.29%
$148,225
-15.70%
$121,657
-17.92%
$118,304
-2.76%
$83,352
-29.54%
$94,889
13.84%
-48.3%
Condo
Annual % Change
$103,463
---
$113,938
10.12%
$89,160
-21.75%
$71,266
-20.07%
$55,913
-21.54%
$49,240
-11.93%
$33,250
-32.47%
$31,594
-4.98%
-69.5%
Foreclosures are the primary factor contributing to both the volume of sales and the decline in
average prices. In 2012, 43.2 percent of the home sales in Fridley were foreclosure sales, a
decline from 49.4 percent in 2011, as shown in Table 4-13. The Twin Cities area is experiencing
the similar trend with 28.6 percent of sales in the region being foreclosures in 2012. Declining
foreclosures in Fridley in the future will cause existing home prices to recover.
Table 4-13
FRIDLEY FORECLOSED SALES; 2005 TO 2012
2005
Fridley
Foreclosure Sales
Total Sales
Percent Foreclosure Sales
Twin Cities Area
Foreclosure Sales
Total Sales
Percent Foreclosure Sales
6
378
1.6 %
2006
8
286
2.8 %
2007
25
252
9.9 %
2008
87
276
31.5 %
2009
137
302
45.4 %
2010
89
204
43.6 %
2011
132
267
49.4 %
2012
126
292
43.2 %
804
1,496
3,288
10,764
17,805
13,185
15,634
13,929
56,755
46,770
39,227
38,289
44,621
38,251
41,566
48,772
1.4 %
3.2 %
8.4 % 28.1 % 39.9 % 34.5 % 37.6 % 28.6 %
Apartment Market
Renters make up approximately 35 percent of Fridley’s households. There are 19 general
occupancy multi-family properties, shown on Map 4-1, that are representative of Fridley’s
4-10
apartment buildings. The largest general occupancy apartments include Georgetown on the River
(462 units), Spring Brook Apartments (360 units), River Pointe (298 units) and River Road East
Apartments (141 units). Many of the multi-family rental buildings in Fridley are older. Limited
information was available on Fridley rental townhomes.
Map 4-1
FRIDLEY APARTMENTS
Fridley is home to several senior rental housing facilities and also townhome/condominium
developments; however, rental information on these units was difficult to acquire. Available
information on these units is shown on Tables 4-14 and 4-15. The following senior facilities are
representative of the senior independent living rental housing options in Fridley: Banfill
Crossing, is a senior independent living facility with 143 general occupancy units; Norwood
Square, with 51 units, is a subsidized rental building; and Village Green, with 142 units, is also a
subsidized rental building.
Unit size for general occupancy, townhomes/condominiums, and senior buildings are contained
in Table 4-14. Unit size is available for 19 general occupancy buildings, which tend to be larger
than for the senior buildings. Unit size is available for one of the senior buildings. Monthly rent
for general occupancy, townhomes/condominiums, and senior buildings is contained in Table 415.
4-11
Table 4-14
FRIDLEY APARTM ENTS
NUM BER OF UNITS AND SQUARE FOOTAGE
Project Name
General Occupancy
1 Georgetown on the River
2 Spring Brook
3 River Road East
4 River Pointe
5 Riverwood Apts
6 Highland Park
7 M oore Lake
8 Lucia Lane
9 Pinecrest
10 Hyde park
11 Skywood
12 South Fridley Apartments
13 Fridley's finest
14 Weldon Apartments
15 Crown West
16 Oak Hills
17 Rustic Oaks
18 Terrace M anor
19 Crown Commons
Townhomes/Condominiums
20 Black Forest
21 Rice Creek Townhomes
22 Brandes Place (low income)
S enior
23 Banfill Crossing
24 Norwood Square
25 Village Green
Number
of Units
462
360
141
298
16
77
64
48
32
11
1 BR
Square Footage
2 BR
800-890
718-789
660
780-815
650
648
700
629
612
745
24
12
18
34
42
11
21
650-700
650
750
821-1,031
1,050-1,150
980-1,094
960
962
800
920
812-850
800
900
728
872
845-925
893-933
850-900
960
950
950-1,000
900
1,141-1,404
3 BR
1,148
1,150
1,020
1,000
620-650
1,200
16
143
51
142
697-790
947-1,205
S o urc e : C ity o f F ridle y, Ec o no m ic & P la nning S ys te m s , Inc ., a nd M c C o m b Gro up, Ltd.
Recent Development Projects
There are two assisted living senior housing developments in Fridley that were recently
constructed. White Pine is a 59 unit project with assisted living and memory care units. The
Landmark of Fridley will add 62 enhanced service units plus eight independent living units. The
senior projects in Fridley are enhanced service projects with units for assisted living, memory
care and congregate, as well as independent living options. The Landmark and White Pine
projects are both located off Central Avenue, east of TH-65 roughly two miles from Fridley
Station, in an area with a more residential and light commercial land use.
Recently, a remodel of the Columbia Arena building has been approved, which will include 116
independent senior living units with a la carte services. This development is located at 70th
Avenue and University Avenue, about two miles from the Fridley Station.
4-12
Table 4-15
FRIDLEY APARTM ENTS
M ONTHLY RENT AND RENT PER SQUARE FOOT
Project Name
General Occupancy
1 Georgetown on the River
2 Spring Brook
3 River Road East
4 River Pointe
5 Riverwood Apts
6 Highland Park
7 M oore Lake
8 Lucia Lane
9 Pinecrest
10 Hyde park
11 Skywood
12 South Fridley Apartments
13 Fridley's finest
14 Weldon Apartments
15 Crown West
16 Oak Hills
17 Rustic Oaks
18 Terrace M anor
19 Crown Commons
Townhomes/Condominiums
20 Black Forest
21 Rice Creek Townhomes
S enior
23 Banfill Crossing
1 BR
$705-$840
$799-$919
$625-$675
$689-$769
$550-595
$675
$655-$675
$685
$675
$625-$675
$450-$475
$550
$612
$785-$935
Rent
2 BR
3 BR
$880-$1,050
$939-$1,039
$775-$850
$789-$899
$735-$765
$750
$745-$755
$785
$825
$735
$775
$765-$800
$750
$500-$550
$600
$650
$698
$475
$1,110-$1,260
$1,179-$1,249
$1,099-$1,169
$975-$1,000
$925
$900-$1,020
1 BR
Rent Per Square Foot
2 BR
3 BR
$0.88-$0.94
$1.11-$1.16
$0.95
$0.88-$0.94
$0.85
$1.04
$0.94
$1.09
$1.10
$0.84
$0.68-$0.69
$0.85
$0.82
$590-$600
$0.91-$0.96
$725-$750
$0.83-$0.91
$0.94-$0.96
$0.81-$0.89
$0.82-$0.93
$0.92-$0.96
$0.82
$0.88-$0.92
$0.98
$0.92
$1.01
$0.89
$0.91
$0.81-$0.84
$0.59-$0.61
$0.63
$0.68
$0.70-$0.73
$0.53
$0.89-$0.97
$0.96-$1.02
$0.88-$1.00
$0.59-$0.60
$1.15-$1.17
$945
$774-$894
$1.03-$1.09
$1,051-1,338
$0.79
$1.11-$1.13
$1.11
S o urc e : C ity o f F ridle y, Ec o no m ic & P la nning S ys te m s , Inc ., a nd M c C o m b Gro up, Ltd.
FRIDLEY REALTOR SURVEYS
Four Fridley area realtors were surveyed to solicit their opinions of the residential real estate
market in Fridley. These realtors were asked questions regarding today’s residential buyer and
seller including: the attractiveness of Fridley to homebuyers, sought after housing types and
price ranges, homebuyers views on the Northstar commuter rail service, and also about what
makes Fridley different from surrounding communities. Responses have been summarized
below.
According to the Fridley real estate agents interviewed, there are a lot of original owners selling
their homes, many of these sellers are retirees living in 1950’s and 1960’s ramblers of 1,000
square feet. Additionally, it’s common for Fridley home sellers to be families with one to two
kids who are looking to move-up into a larger home. These Fridley homeowners are selling their
homes mostly due to a change of lifestyle and need for a different living situation. Other reasons
for homeowners selling their homes include market conditions and increased maintenance
because of the age of homes.
Fridley real estate agents had different ideas as to where home sellers move to if they stay in the
area. Generally speaking, real estate agents felt that home sellers didn’t necessarily stay in
Fridley, mostly because Fridley does not have a lot to offer in the form of larger homes, one level
living, or townhomes. Because of this, some of them look at the surrounding communities, such
4-13
as New Brighton and Shoreview. One agent felt that home sellers don’t typically cross the river
and another one felt that as gas prices go up, people will flood to the cities.
Homebuyers seeking to purchase a home in Fridley are typically first time homebuyers looking
for an affordable starter home. There are also some young families and younger couples looking
in Fridley. There has also been increased interest in Fridley from the Muslim community
because of a school in the area. Realtors interviewed felt that homebuyers are attracted to
Fridley because of its location, affordability, and proximity to the cities. They consider Fridley a
convenient location to the airport and they can have the benefit of being close to the inner city
and living in a smaller town at the same time. They also noted that Fridley is convenient to the
freeway and it has good schools and parks.
The majority of people looking for a home in Fridley are looking there because of the
affordability of the homes. Typically they are looking for pre-existing, single family homes in
the entry to mid level range. These homes are usually 1960’s ramblers with three bedroom and
1,000 square feet. Agents felt that if someone is looking for an older existing home, they are
able to find it in Fridley--the inventory is good. However, if they are looking for newer homes,
they won’t find much of that in Fridley. One real estate agent felt that homebuyers don’t usually
start looking in Fridley, but they end up there because of the affordability.
Fridley homebuyers are expecting to find homes priced under $200,000, with the majority of
homes priced between $100,000 and $185,000. There are homes priced over $250,000 along the
river or creek and some homes in Innsbrook that range between $200,000 to $300,000.
When asked how Fridley homebuyers view the Northstar commuter rail service, Fridley real
estate agents had varied responses, which included:
•
•
•
•
If they work downtown, it’s great. If not, it’s not a factor.
I personally think it’s great. If it’s accessible, people use it.
Everybody thought it would have a bigger impact. Some listings try to hype it up, but
people are never overly impressed.
I don’t know how much it is used. It’s going to take a long time to catch on. It’s a longterm investment in the community.
Real estate agents interviewed felt that the location and level of housing makes Fridley different
from other communities. The homes are also affordable, which makes it cost effective to live in
Fridley. One agent felt that “Fridley is not a community that stands out – it’s desirable because
it’s affordable. There is not a lot of WOW power here.”
A couple of Fridley real estate agents offered some additional insights, which included:
•
•
•
Fridley has a strong presence of large employers.
The difficulty in Fridley is the age of houses and that they are all ramblers of 1,000
square feet with detached garages.
We need the green bikes here! It would be our connection to the cities, with the trail
system already in place (Mississippi trail system and Rice Creek Regional Park).
4-14
In summary, Fridley provides affordable homes that are in close proximity to the city, which
makes it attractive to homebuyers. The inventory of homes includes older, rambler style homes
with three bedrooms and about 1,000 square feet. Fridley’s location and affordability make it
different from other communities.
RESIDENTIAL GROWTH ESTIMATES
Future housing demand in the Northstar cities is dependent on future residential growth in each
city’s draw area, which is the area where most of the Northstar riders live. The methodology
used to estimate household growth in each of the Northstar cities for 2013 through 2035 is
described in this section.
Twin Cities Area Residential Growth Corridors
Residential growth in the Twin Cities area radiates out from Minneapolis and St. Paul in eight
growth corridors. Historic growth in these eight corridors has been documented by McComb
Group, Ltd. from 1970 through 2011. Each growth corridor generally captures the same portion
of the Twin Cities area growth each year, even though housing development will fluctuate from
year to year. Northstar Corridor cities are located in the North Growth Corridor, shown on Map
4-2. This growth corridor is served by TH-10 in the west and TH-65 in the east.
Map 4-2
NORTH GROWTH CORRIDOR
4-15
The Northstar commuter service draws its riders from cities located in the west portion of the
North Growth Corridor, shown on Map 4-3. Stations in each city have individual draw areas that
contain the residence location of Northstar riders that use that station. Draw areas were
delineated based on rider surveys conducted by the Metropolitan Council for Fridley, Coon
Rapids, Anoka, Elk River, and Big Lake. The Ramsey Station Draw Area is based on a survey
conducted in 2012 by Metro Transit. The draw area cities are shown in Map 4-3, along with the
Northstar cities.
Map 4-3
NORTHSTAR CORRIDOR DRAW AREAS
Historic Residential Growth
Building permits for the Metropolitan Area, North Growth Corridor, Northstar Corridor Draw
Area, and Northstar cities were examined from 1991 through September 2012, shown in Table 416, to determine household growth trends. Annual Metropolitan Area building permits ranged
from 12,060 to 17,679 between 1991 and 1999. As the housing boom unfolded, building permits
increased from 17,679 in 1999, peaked at 20,973 in 2003, which was followed by a decline to
12,109 in 2006 when the housing boom ended. Building permits declined by 67 percent from
12,109 in 2006 to 4,028 in 2009 and began a slight recovery to 5,014 units in 2010. Based on
nine months experience in 2012, it appears that building permits in 2012 will be significantly
higher than recorded in the 2008 to 2011 period. Three periods contained in Table 4-16 reflect a
relatively normal period (1991 to 1998); a boom period (1999 to 2006) and a recessionary period
(2007 to 2012). Building permit trends in each period provide insight into future residential
development trends.
4-16
Table 4-16
SEVEN-COUNTY METROPOLITAN AREA, NORTH GROWTH CORRIDOR, NORTHSTAR CORRIDOR DRAW AREA,
FRIDLEY STATION DRAW AREA, AND FRIDLEY
RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS; 1991 TO 2012*
Year
Metropolitan
Area
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
Total
Average
12,060
15,632
15,882
14,205
13,956
14,098
13,234
15,817
17,679
17,050
16,788
19,782
20,973
19,832
11,514
12,109
8,039
4,711
4,028
5,014
4,549
6,436
283,388
13,188
North
Growth Corridor
Building
Market
Permits
Share
1,912
2,713
2,924
2,140
2,124
2,505
2,195
2,944
3,049
2,432
2,634
2,751
4,077
4,119
3,118
1,904
1,231
543
546
702
846
1,033
48,442
2,258
15.85 %
17.36
18.41
15.07
15.22
17.77
16.59
18.61
17.25
14.26
15.69
13.91
19.44
20.77
27.08
15.72
15.31
11.53
13.56
14.00
18.60
16.05
17.09 %
Northstar Corridor
Draw Area
Market
Building
Share
Permits
86.45 %
84.48
77.39
84.67
89.41
86.59
89.43
91.98
93.34
93.22
95.25
96.58
90.43
93.59
81.14
91.23
94.15
92.08
93.59
96.15
75.06
86.16
89.21 %
1,653
2,292
2,263
1,812
1,899
2,169
1,963
2,708
2,846
2,267
2,509
2,657
3,687
3,855
2,530
1,737
1,159
500
511
675
635
890
43,217
2,016
Fridley Station Draw Area
Market
Building
Share
Permits
49.12 %
45.07
33.10
34.82
32.17
30.43
35.76
35.67
43.22
33.08
44.16
42.79
35.18
37.67
32.37
41.62
41.24
52.60
63.80
63.41
68.50
40.56
39.27 %
812
1,033
749
631
611
660
702
966
1,230
750
1,108
1,137
1,297
1,452
819
723
478
263
326
428
435
361
16,971
791
Fridley
Market
Building
Share
Permits
1.23 %
1.06
1.34
9.19
6.71
9.39
7.69
2.69
10.65
2.67
3.79
0.97
11.10
0.76
3.30
1.24
0.63
0.38
0.31
10.28
16.55
7.20
4.80 %
10
11
10
58
41
62
54
26
131
20
42
11
144
11
27
9
3
1
1
44
72
26
814
38
*Through September 2012.
Average excludes 2012.
Source: U.S. Census and McComb Group, Ltd.
North Growth Corridor market share of the Metropolitan Area building permits averaged 17.1
percent between 1991 and 2012. During the period 1991 to 1998, market share averaged 16.9
percent. Market share average increased to 18.0 percent in the 1999 to 2006 period. This
increase was influenced by one year (2005) when market share was 27.1 percent. If 2005 market
share is excluded, the average of the other seven years is 16.7 percent, generally consistent with
the previous period. During the last four years (2008 through 2011), building permit market
share ranged from 11.5 percent in 2008 to 18.6 percent in 2011. Market share has increased each
full year since 2008.
Building permits in the Northstar Corridor Draw Area increased from 1,653 in 1991 to 2,708 in
1998. During this eight-year period, market share ranged from 77.4 percent to a peak of 92.0
percent in 1998 and averaged 86.3 percent. Market share has increased to an average of 91.9
percent during the housing boom from 1999 to 2006. Since the housing boom ended in 2006,
market share has averaged 90.2 percent over a five-year period. In the first four years of that
period, the market share was 94.0 percent. While the number of building permits has been
declining, the Northstar Corridor Draw Area has maintained strong market share performance.
Fridley Residential Growth
The Fridley Station Draw Area includes Fridley and Spring Lake Park, and portions of Mounds
View, Blaine, and Coon Rapids. During the period between 1991 and 1998, this area achieved
an average market share of 37.0 percent of Northstar Corridor Draw Area building permits.
Building permits for the Fridley Station Draw Area ranged from 611 to 1,033 during this period.
4-17
From 1999 to 2005, Fridley Station Draw Area cities averaged 1,113 building permits per year
and maintained a 38.4 percent market share of Northstar Corridor Draw Area building permits.
Since 2006, Fridley Station Draw Area cities have experienced increased market share. Average
market share for the 2006 to 2011 period was 55.2 percent.
Fridley’s market share of Fridley Station Draw Area building permits averaged 4.9 percent for
the period 1991 through 1998. Annual building permits fluctuated between 10 and 62 during this
period. Between 1999 and 2006, Fridley market share increased to 4.3 percent. This increase
was due to two years (1999 and 2003) when 131 and 144 permits, respectively, were issued.
Without 1999 and 2006, the average for this period was 2.1 percent. During the period 2007 to
2011, Fridley averaged 24 building permits per year and experienced an increase in market share
of Fridley Station Draw Area building permits to 5.6 percent. Over the study period, Fridley’s
market share has averaged about 4.8 percent, with peak years of 11.1 and 16.6 percent. These
spikes in market share indicate that Fridley can absorb over 100 units annually when
developments can be brought to market.
Multi-Family Development Trends
Development potential for most of the Northstar station areas is likely to be some form of multifamily housing, which represents a residential submarket. Multi-family housing includes forsale and for-rent multi-family buildings, duplexes, and townhomes. The historic market share of
multi-family housing in relation to total housing in the Northstar Corridor Draw Area is
contained in Table 4-17.
Table 4-17
NORTHSTAR CORRIDOR DRAW AREA, NORTHSTAR CITIES, OTHER CITIES, AND FRIDLEY
MULTI-FAMILY BUILDING PERMITS; 1991 TO 2012
Year
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
Average
Northstar Corridor Draw Area
Multi-Family
Total
Number
Percent
1,653
2,292
2,263
1,812
1,899
2,169
1,963
2,708
2,846
2,267
2,509
2,657
3,687
3,855
2,530
1,737
1,155
500
511
675
637
890
2,015
171
392
440
288
124
74
134
250
308
323
542
399
977
1154
927
522
509
182
62
103
123
NA
381
10.3 %
17.1
19.4
15.9
6.5
3.4
6.8
9.2
10.8
14.2
21.6
15.0
26.5
29.9
36.6
30.1
44.1
36.4
12.1
15.3
19.3
NA
19.1 %
Northstar Cities
Number
Percent
165
320
440
165
110
45
82
156
292
286
420
324
919
914
604
344
240
40
4
59
123
NA
288
96.5 %
81.6
100.0
57.3
88.7
60.8
61.2
62.4
94.8
88.5
77.5
81.2
94.1
79.2
65.2
65.9
47.2
22.0
6.5
57.3
100.0
NA
70.8 %
*Through September 2012.
Average excludes 2012.
Source: U.S. Census and McComb Group, Ltd.
4-18
Other Cities
Number
Percent
6
72
0
123
14
29
52
94
16
37
122
75
58
240
323
178
269
142
58
44
0
NA
93
3.5 %
18.4
42.7
11.3
39.2
38.8
37.6
5.2
11.5
22.5
18.8
5.9
20.8
34.8
34.1
52.8
78.0
93.5
42.7
NA
29.2 %
Fridley
Number
Percent
55
2
128
4
28
2
140
4
20
1
41
70
NA
24
%
33.3
1.3
43.8
1.4
6.7
0.6
15.2
0.4
3.3
0.3
69.5
56.9
NA
11.1 %
Northstar Corridor Draw Area multi-family building permits averaged 11.1 percent market share
of total building permits from 1991 to 1998. Multi-family market share increased to an average
of 23.1 percent from 1999 to 2006, and continued to increase to an average of 25.4 percent in the
2007 to 2011 period. This demonstrates that the Northstar Corridor Draw Area has become more
attractive for multi-family development.
Northstar station cities attracted more multi-family development than other communities within
the Northstar Corridor Draw Area. Station cities captured over 75 percent of the Northstar
Corridor Draw Area new multi-family units built between 1991 and 1998. From 1999 to 2006,
Northstar station cities share of new multi-family units increased to an average of 80.8 percent as
multi-family development increased in Northstar station cities. Since 2007, multi-family
housing has decreased as a result of the recession. Multi-family housing increased in the other
draw area cities, which may reflect availability of development sites.
Fridley has experienced three spikes of multi-family development over the last 20 years. The
first spike included 55 units in 1994, which represented one-third of Northstar cities multi-family
development that year. The second spike occurred in 1999 with 128 units, representing 43.8
percent of the Northstar cities new multi-family units. The third spike was in 2003 when 140
new multi-family units were added, which represented 15.2 percent of Northstar cities multifamily units built that year. Since 2003, there have been a total of 136 new multi-family permits
issued in Fridley representing 81.0 percent of the 168 building permits issued.
Household Formation
The dramatic decline in housing construction has many causes. It is becoming apparent that
household formation has recently departed significantly from past trends. This appears to have
been a major contributor to the sharp decline in residential construction following 2006 in the
Metropolitan Area and nationally.
The decline in household formation is a national trend and was documented in a recent analysis
published by the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank. This report found that annual household
formation in the United States fell from an average of 1.5 million households in the 1997 to 2007
period to 500,000 per year in 2010, a level that is one-third of the annual households formed in
the previous 10 years. The great recession reduced the formation of households by two-thirds.
The shortfall in household formation was estimated at 2.6 million households.
The decline in households was not uniform across all age cohorts. Nationally, households age 18
to 34 accounted for 25.6 million households or 21.6 percent of total households in 2011. This
group, however, accounted for 1.9 million or 73 percent of the shortfall in household formation.
The recession had a dramatic impact on the economic prospects for the 18 to 34 age cohort as
unemployment increased and job openings evaporated as a result of the recession and the
sluggish recovery that has created few jobs. The recession caused adult children to move home,
singles to double-up, and homeowners to take in renters reducing the rate of household
formation.
During the past 10 years, Metropolitan Area residential building permits declined from a peak of
20,973 units in 2003 to 4,028 in 2009, as shown in Table 4-16. The housing boom undoubtedly
fueled the high number of building permits in the 1999 to 2004 period. Building permits fell
4-19
below average in 2005 and began a sharp decline in 2007. While it was not apparent at that time,
this decline coincided with a significant decline in household formation.
Between 2006 and 2009, building permits fell from 12,109 to 4,028 in 2009, a two-thirds drop
similar to the drop in household formation nationally. In past recessions, declines in household
formation have been less severe and have been reflected in slight drops in building permits and
decreased apartment occupancy rates. During the Great Recession, those declines have been
greater and lasted longer due to the slow recovery.
In the Metropolitan Area, as the economy has improved and the unemployment rate has declined,
there’s been an increase in the number of building permits issued, particularly for multi-family
housing. This indicates that the rate of household formation is beginning to increase creating
demand for new housing. It’s uncertain how long it will take household formation to recover to
previous levels, but the process seems to be underway. At some point, there may be an increase
in household formation that makes up for some of the household formation that did not occur in
2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011. How much pent up demand exists is subject to speculation.
Stabilized Residential Demand
The estimates of future housing demand incorporate State Demographer estimates of future
household growth for 10-year periods. These estimates represent stabilized residential demand
based on long-term household growth estimates and do not reflect cyclical changes in household
formations.
The relationship of stabilized residential demand to past annual building permits and household
formations for the Metropolitan Area are shown on Figure 4-4. The blue bars represent annual
unit building permits and the horizontal black lines represent average annual household growth
for 1990 to 2000 and 2000 to 2010. The red bars represent stabilized future residential demand.
Stabilized annual demand is decreasing because the State Demographer is projecting slower
future growth for the Metropolitan Area.
Household growth in the Metropolitan Area has been declining since the 1970 to 1980 period
when annual average household increase was 18,231. In the next decade (1980 to 1990), the
average annual increase was 15,406. Between 1990 and 2000, the average annual household
increase was 14,595 (shown by the black line in Figure 4-4) compared to annual average
building permits of 15,141, a difference of 3.6 percent, which could be accounted for by vacancy
and demolition of existing units. In the latest 10-year period (2000 to 2010), average annual
household growth was 9,830 compared to average annual building permits of 12,279. The sharp
decline in building permits beginning in 2007 is clearly evident. Building permits more than
doubled in 2012 to 10,301, a positive sign. Future stabilized residential demand is represented
by the red bars and is expected to grow slowly over the next five years. This graph demonstrates
that over the long-term, residential demand is expected to moderate as household growth slows.
4-20
Figure 4-4
METROPOLITAN AREA BUILDING PERMITS; 1990 TO 2012
STABILIZED RESIDENTIAL DEMAND; 2013 TO 2035
Source: U.S. Census, State Demographer, and McComb Group, Ltd.
Fridley Residential Demand
Future stabilized household growth projections for Fridley and the Fridley Station Draw Area
take into consideration estimated future market share in the North Growth Corridor and
Northstar Corridor. Market share relationships established in the previous section are used to
estimate future stabilized residential market demand. Future Metropolitan Area households for
2013 through 2035 are shown in the first column of Table 4-18. These estimates are based on
households for the Metropolitan Area plus Sherburne County counted in the 2010 Census.
Future household estimates are based on the State Demographers 2013 population estimates
adjusted to reflect average household size contained in the State Demographers 2008 estimate of
population and households. This results in a 2013 estimated 1,194,278 households in the
Metropolitan Area plus Sherburne County. Future stabilized household growth is about 20
percent lower than past projections. Metropolitan Area plus Sherburne County households are
estimated to increase to 1,226,189 in 2013, followed by an increase to 1,300,152 households in
2020. The rate of household growth slows after each five-year period.
Over the past 20 years, the North Growth Corridor has captured an average of 15.4 percent of
Metropolitan Area plus Sherburne County growth with a higher growth rate of 17.5 percent
during the housing boom. In the future, it’s estimated that the North Growth Corridor will
capture about 16.5 percent of the Metropolitan Area plus Sherburne County new households.
4-21
Assuming that the North Growth Corridor will capture 16.5 percent of the increased growth,
similar to the past, the estimated household growth in 2013 would be about 2,581 households.
The Northstar Corridor Draw Area segment of the North Growth Corridor has maintained a
relatively stable share of North Growth Corridor households, averaging 90.9 percent over the
past 20 years. In the next six years, 2013 to 2018, Northstar Corridor Draw Area market share is
estimated at 91.0 percent, increasing to 92.0 percent in 2019 and beyond. Northstar cities market
share of the Northstar Corridor Draw Area has been declining due to slowing development in the
older communities of Anoka, Coon Rapids, and Fridley. Each of these cities is actively seeking
to encourage new housing in their respective station areas, which will create the potential for
increased market share.
The Fridley Station Draw Area market share of the Northstar Corridor Draw Area is estimated to
be stable at 60.0 percent of the Northstar Corridor Draw Area households from 2013 through
2035. Fridley’s stabilized market share of Fridley Station Draw Area demand is estimated at
10.0 percent from 2013 to 2035. This is an estimated 141 households in 2013, increasing to 145
households in 2015, and then slowly decreasing to 106 households by 2031, an average of 125
new households a year, as household growth slows in the Metropolitan Area. These household
growth forecasts assume historic household formation rates. Until household formation
recovers, new households and new residential construction are likely to be less than forecast.
Table 4-18
SEVEN-COUNTY M ETROPOLITAN AREA PLUS SHERBURNE COUNTY, NORTH GROWTH CORRIDOR,
NORTHSTAR CORRIDOR DRAW AREA, FRIDLEY STATION DRAW AREA, AND FRIDLEY
HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS; 2013 TO 2035
Year
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Total
M etropolitan Area
plus Sherburne County
Households
Increase
1,194,278
1,210,128
1,226,189
1,240,637
1,255,255
1,270,046
1,285,011
1,300,152
1,313,020
1,326,015
1,339,138
1,352,392
1,365,777
1,378,099
1,390,532
1,403,077
1,415,736
1,428,508
1,440,141
1,451,868
1,463,690
1,475,609
1,487,625
15,643
15,850
16,061
14,448
14,618
14,791
14,965
15,141
12,868
12,995
13,124
13,253
13,385
12,322
12,433
12,545
12,659
12,773
11,632
11,727
11,823
11,919
12,016
308,990
North Growth Corridor
M arket
Northstar Corridor
Share
Draw Area
@ 16.5% Percent
HHs
2,581
2,615
2,650
2,384
2,412
2,440
2,469
2,498
2,123
2,144
2,165
2,187
2,208
2,033
2,051
2,070
2,089
2,108
1,919
1,935
1,951
1,967
1,983
50,983
91.0 %
91.0
91.0
91.0
91.0
91.0
92.0
92.0
92.0
92.0
92.0
92.0
92.0
92.0
92.0
92.0
92.0
92.0
92.0
92.0
92.0
92.0
92.0
S o urc e : M c C o m b Gro up, Ltd.
4-22
2,349
2,380
2,412
2,169
2,195
2,221
2,272
2,298
1,953
1,973
1,992
2,012
2,032
1,870
1,887
1,904
1,922
1,939
1,766
1,780
1,795
1,809
1,824
46,754
Fridley Station
Draw Area
Households
Percent
HHs
60.0 %
60.0
60.0
60.0
60.0
60.0
60.0
60.0
60.0
60.0
60.0
60.0
60.0
60.0
60.0
60.0
60.0
60.0
60.0
60.0
60.0
60.0
60.0
1,409
1,428
1,447
1,302
1,317
1,332
1,363
1,379
1,172
1,184
1,195
1,207
1,219
1,122
1,132
1,143
1,153
1,163
1,059
1,068
1,077
1,086
1,094
28,052
Fridley
Percent
HHs
10.0 %
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
141
143
145
130
132
133
136
138
117
118
120
121
122
112
113
114
115
116
106
107
108
109
109
2,805
Owner-occupied homes represented 65.4 percent of all Fridley housing units in 2010, a decrease
from 67.7 percent in 2000. During the housing boom 2000 to 2006, 296 building permits were
issued: 102 (34.5 percent) for single family homes and 194 (65.5 percent) for multi-family units.
Currently, there has been a trend toward higher demand for rental housing as interest in
homeownership has moderated. It is uncertain if this is a long-term trend. During the period
2007 to 2011, however, multi-family building permits (including townhomes) have represented
90 percent of all Fridley building permits. For the short-term and possibly long-term, this could
increase Fridley’s stabilized multi-family share to 85 to 90 percent or 119 to 125 units annually.
Stabilized single family demand could range from 14 to 20 units annually. These percentages
can vary from year to year based on developer interest. These estimates assume that housing
units are available, properly marketed, and competitively priced.
4-23
Chapter V
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Twin Cities Area Retail Market
The northwest portion of the Twin Cities area is the largest retail market by square feet. The
Northwest submarket has 17.8 million square feet of retail space, which is 29 percent of the Twin
Cities area total, as shown in Table 5-1. Retail space in neighborhood shopping centers is the
largest portion of the Northwest submarket with 6.8 million square feet of space. The Southeast
submarket has the largest amount of regional mall space, which includes the Mall of America
which is 2.7 million square feet in size. The Northwest submarket has the most square feet of
community and neighborhood retail centers. The area wide retail vacancy rate in the 3rd Quarter
of 2011 was 6.2 percent. The vacancy rate in the Northwest submarket was 7.2 percent.
Table 5-1
TWIN CITIES AREA RETAIL INVENTORY; 3RD QUARTER 2011
Submarket
Regional
CBD
Northeast
Northwest
Southeast
Southwest
Total
2,782,758
5,175,213
6,989,944
5,951,076
20,898,991
Square Feet
Community Neighborhood
3,954,366
5,801,932
4,242,594
4,107,340
18,106,232
3,305,998
6,779,576
4,977,658
4,796,694
19,859,926
Total
2,489,918
10,043,122
17,756,721
16,210,196
14,885,110
61,385,067
Percent
of Total
4.1 %
16.4
28.9
26.4
24.2
100.0 %
Vacancy
Rate
6.4 %
7.6
7.2
5.2
5.2
6.2 %
Source: Colliers; Economic & Planning Systems.
Northstar Corridor Shopping Centers
The Riverdale area in Coon Rapids is the largest shopping center concentration along the
Northstar Corridor. Three major community centers total over 1.8 million square feet, as shown
in Table 5-2. Riverdale Village, a large power center, is 975,229 square feet in size and is
anchored by Costco, Sears, JC Penney, and Kohl’s. Riverdale Commons shopping center is
505,945 square feet in size and is anchored by Target and Home Depot. Riverdale Crossing
(333,517 square feet), anchored by Walmart and Cub, is north of TH-10.
All but one of the shopping centers in the corridor was built before 2000. The only center built
after 2000 is the Elk River Center in Elk River, anchored by Walmart and Home Depot. In
addition to the shopping centers listed in Table 5-2, Northtown Mall, a 745,000 square foot retail
mall anchored by Herbergers, Best Buy, and Home Depot, is located in southwest Blaine near
Springbrook Mall. Shopping centers in Coon Rapids and Fridley are in close proximity to
Northstar stations. Shopping center locations are shown on Figure 5-1.
5-1
Table 5-2
NORTHSTAR CORRIDOR M AJOR SHOPPING CENTERS
(Over 100,000 Square Feet)
Shopping Center
Address
Anoka
Riverview Plaza
2830 Cutters Grove Ave
Coon Rapids
Riverdale Village
Riverdale Commons
Springbrook M all
Village Ten Center
Riverdale Crossing
Northtown Village Shopping Center
Coon Rapids Family Center M all
Kmart Plaza
Northdale Shopping Center
Coon Rapids I
12921 Riverdale Dr
3300 124th Ave NW
77 85th Ave NW
2090 NW Northdale Blvd
129000 Riverdale Dr NW
40 NW Coon Rapids Blvd
2891 Coon Rapids Blvd NW
8943 University Ave NE
514 NW Northdale Blvd
3000 111th Ave NW
Elk River
Elk River Center
Elk Park Center
Elk River M all
18185 Zane St NW
19112 NW Freeport St
550 Freeport Ave
Fridley
753 NE 53rd Ave
Fridley M arket
753 NE 53rd Ave
244 57th Ave NE
Center Type
Year
Opened
Community
1990
Super Regional
Regional
Community
Community
Community
Community
Community
Community
Community
Community
1999
1996
1980
1971
1990
1995
1966
1971
1955
1980
Community
Community
Community
2005
1995
Community
Neighborhood
1969
1967
Stores
109,499
73
18
12
15
27
16
3
25
5
So urce: Claritas and Eco no mic & P lanning Systems, Inc.
Figure 5-1
NORTHSTAR CORRIDOR MAJOR RETAIL CENTERS
5-2
Square
Feet
975,229
505,945
237,388
211,472
333,517
166,118
133,792
118,095
100,903
100,490
349,610
287,985
113,091
177,428
168,054
Fridley Retail Market
Retail development in Fridley consists generally of aging strip centers built when the City was
developing in the 1960’s. The largest retail center in Fridley is the Target anchored shopping
center at 753 NE 53rd Avenue, which was torn down and completely rebuilt (including the Petco
store), as shown in Table 5-2. Moon Plaza shopping center, which is small strip center along
University Ave, is the only center within a half mile of the Fridley Station.
The Cub Foods center at the corner of University Avenue and I-694 is being renovated. Cub
Foods originally occupied the entire building of approximately 100,000 square feet. This was an
inefficient store configuration and too large of a space for Cub Foods, which reduced its size to
about 65,000 square feet. The remaining space will be subdivided into smaller retail spaces.
Representatives from this project indicate retailers in the area generally perform well and that
this will be a viable retail location well into the future. New retail development activity in
Fridley in the future will likely be only small scale infill projects and reinvestment in aging
centers due to a lack of available sites and limited trade area growth.
Fridley retail net lease rates range from $6.53 to $10.00 per square foot, as shown in Table 5-3,
with an average of $3.72 in common area maintenance (CAM)/expenses, well below the Twin
Cities area average of $18 to $19 per square foot.
Table 5-3
FRIDLEY RETAIL RENTAL RATES
Address
M oore Lake Plaza
Fridley M arket
Holly Shopping Center
M oore Lake Commons West
M oon Plaza
1202 M oore Lake Drive E
244 57th Ave NE
999 E M oore Lake Drive
Net
Rent per
Sq. Ft.
Space
Available
(Sq. Ft.)
$ 6.53
$ 10.00
7.00
8.00
40,000
4,753
6,500
5,238
So urce: Lo o pnet, No rthmarq and Eco no mic & P lanning Systems, Inc.
New Retail Development
New retail development in Fridley and the station area has been limited. Two retail/commercial
projects are proposed for the area. One is the redevelopment of the Cub Foods shopping center
site to include a retail strip center. The second project is a 27-acre site owned by Industrial
Equities at the corner of East River Road and I-694. This property has been conceptually
proposed for mixed-use with industrial/office/multi-family with the industrial being built in the
first phase along the railroad tracks. There are no definitive plans or estimate of development
timing at the moment.
Office Market
The office market in the Twin Cities area is showing signs of improvement. With
unemployment dropping and some indication of positive employment growth, the demand for
office space is increasing. Vacancy rates in the Twin Cities area are down from 17.6 percent in
2010 to 16.8 at the end of 2011. Rental rates have remained consistent since peaking in 2008
and dropping in 2009 to their current levels. The average asking full-service rent rate for Class
A office space is $23.27 per square foot for central business district properties and $23.49 for
suburban properties, as shown in Table 5-4.
5-3
Table 5-4
TWIN CITIES AREA OFFICE M ARKET; 4TH QUARTER 2011
Total
Sq. Ft.
Submarket
Vacant
Sq. Ft.
Vacancy
Rate
Rent Rate
Class A
Class B
CBD
M inneap olis
St. Paul M idway
CBD Total
28,299,243
10,059,518
38,358,761
4,074,715
1,840,810
5,915,525
16.0 %
20.7
17.2 %
$ 23.33
23.02
$ 23.27
$ 18.06
17.84
$ 17.96
S uburban
Northeast
Northwest
Southeast
Southwest
Suburban Total
2,387,967
5,380,557
4,406,797
19,859,628
32,034,949
507,669
947,703
782,744
3,643,585
5,881,701
21.3 %
17.6
17.8
18.3
18.4 %
$ 22.20
24.99
19.33
24.37
$ 23.49
$ 20.05
17.95
18.97
20.27
$ 19.68
70,393,710
11,797,226
16.8 %
$ 23.39
$ 18.79
So urce: Grubb & Ellis.
The Twin Cities area absorbed over 400,000 square feet of office space in 2011, which was up
from 26,000 in 2010. Despite the positive trends, the only construction activity for office space
in the past two years has been for build-to-suit office buildings; no multi-tenant office buildings
have been built. Current trends indicate the possibility of some construction activity but likely
only in the major established office locations.
The Northstar Corridor is in the Northwest office submarket, which makes up 16.8 percent of the
suburban submarkets, and about 7.6 percent of the Twin Cities area office market. The
Northwest submarket is the second largest suburban submarket in the Twin Cities area, but is a
quarter the size of the Southwest submarket. The Northwest submarket has approximately 5.4
million square feet of multi-tenant office space. The vacancy rate in the Northwest submarket
was 17.6 percent at the end of 2011, which is lower than the suburban average of 18.4 percent,
but higher than the overall Twin Cities area average of 16.8 percent. The average rental rate for
Class A office space in the Northwest submarket was $24.99 per square foot, which is the highest
of all the submarkets.
Office rents are well below the Twin Cities area average of $19 per square foot with net rents
ranging from $9.00 to $9.25 per square foot, as shown on Table 5-5. Gross rents range from
$15.00 to $16.88 per square foot. Due to the low rental rates, the market does not support
speculative office development.
Table 5-5
FRIDLEY OFFICE RENTAL RATES
Commerce Park Office
Fridley Office Plaza
PACO Office Center
University Business Center I
Address
Average
Rent per
Sq. Ft.
Lease
Type
7260 Commerce Lane
7960-7990 University Ave
$ 16.88
$ 9.00
$ 15.00
$ 9.25
G
N
G
N
So urce: Lo o pnet, No rthmarq, and M cCo mb Gro up, Ltd.
5-4
Space
Available
(Sq. Ft.)
2,533
2,700
8,056
Industrial Market
The Twin Cities area has 333.8 million square feet of industrial space. The Northstar Corridor is
within the Northwest submarket, which is the largest industrial submarket in the Twin Cities area
with 96.2 million square feet of space. The industrial space in the Northwest submarket is driven
by the high concentration of manufacturing employment in the corridor, specifically in Anoka
County.
The area wide vacancy rate for industrial space was 6.6 percent in the 3rd Quarter of 2011, as
shown in Table 5-6. The average rental rate for warehouse and distribution space was $5.16 per
square foot and $6.32 per square foot for research and development and flex space. The vacancy
rate in the Northwest submarket was 6.9 percent, which was slightly higher than the Twin Cities
area average. Rental rates in the Northwest submarket were slightly higher for warehouse and
distribution space, but lower for research and development and flex space than the Twin Cities
area average. The industrial space market in the Twin Cities area has remained consistent over
the past few years with only small drops in absorption, consistent rental and vacancy rates, and
little to no new construction. Only significant growth in manufacturing or distribution
employment will drive up demand for industrial space in the near future.
Table 5-6
TWIN CITIES AREA INDUSTRIAL MARKET; 3RD QUARTER 2011
Submarket
Total
Sq. Ft.
Minneapolis
Northeast
Northwest
Southeast
Southwest
St. Paul Midway
43,968,445
31,171,300
96,166,932
47,480,858
73,088,539
41,943,603
333,819,677
Vacant
Sq. Ft.
1,754,797
1,834,493
6,650,020
3,689,464
5,993,878
2,265,052
22,187,704
Source: Grubb & Ellis.
5-5
Vacancy
Rate
Rent Rate
WH/Dist. R&D/Flex
4.0 % $
5.9
6.9
7.8
8.2
5.4
6.6 % $
3.57
5.57
5.48
4.94
5.16
5.31
5.16
$
$
5.66
6.57
6.02
6.36
6.57
5.72
6.32
Chapter VI
FRIDLEY STATION DRAW AREA DEMOGRAPHICS
Draw areas for each of the Northstar stations were delineated based on rider surveys conducted
by the Metropolitan Council for each station: Fridley, Coon Rapids, Anoka, Elk River, and Big
Lake. The Ramsey Station Draw Area is based on a survey conducted in 2012 by Metro Transit.
FRIDLEY STATION DRAW AREA
The Fridley Station Draw Area serves residents living in Fridley (north of I-694), Spring Lake
Park, western Mounds View, southwest corner of Blaine, and the southeast corner of Coon
Rapids, as shown on Map 6-1. The Fridley Station Draw Area extends west to the Mississippi
River, north to 101st Avenue in Blaine, east to Silver Lake Road and south to I-694. This draw
area covers approximately 19 square miles, the smallest draw area of the Northstar Corridor
communities.
Map 6-1
6-1
Population and Households
Population and household growth for the Fridley Station Draw Area has been stagnant since
2000, while the population and household growth of the Northstar Corridor Draw Area, and the
Metropolitan Area have seen faster growth, as shown in Table 6-1. The Fridley Station Draw
Area was stable between 2000 and 2011. Northstar Corridor Draw Area population is estimated
to have increased at a 1.62 percent annual growth rate during the same period. Population
estimates for the Fridley Station Draw Area show an annual average increase of 0.4 percent
through 2016 to 49,451 people. 1 .
Fridley Station Draw Area households are growing at a slightly faster. In 2000, draw area
households totaled 19,363 and increased to 19,788 by 2011, an annual increase of 0.20 percent.
Future households are estimated to increase to 20,485 by 2016, an annual growth rate of 0.70
percent.
Table 6-1
FRIDLEY STATION AND NORTHSTAR CORRIDOR DRAW AREAS
AND SEVEN-COUNTY METROPOLITAN AREA
POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD GROWTH TRENDS
2000 CENSUS; 2011 AND 2016 ESTIMATED
Year
Population
2000
2011E
2016E
Annual Growth Rate
2000-11
2011-16
Households
2000
2011E
2016E
Annual Growth Rate
2000-11
2011-16
Fridley
Station
Draw Area
48,467
48,463
49,451
(0.00) %
0.40
19,363
19,788
20,485
0.20 %
0.70
Northstar
Corridor
Draw Area
290,439
346,506
363,015
1.62 %
0.94
102,464
125,352
131,616
1.85 %
0.98
Metropolitan
Area
2,642,056
2,875,666
2,979,795
0.77 %
0.71
1,021,454
1,128,357
1,170,688
0.91 %
0.74
E: Estimated.
Source: Scan/US and McComb Group, Ltd.
1
Demographic Data: Draw areas for Northstar stations are geographic areas that do not conform to city or census
tract boundaries. McComb Group uses demographic data provided by Scan/US, Inc., a source of Census
comparable demographic information that is allocated to 1/16th square micro-grids. Due to changes in U.S. Census
procedures, the 2010 Census did not obtain information similar to the 2000 Census. This U.S. Census relies on the
American Community Survey to provide additional data. Currently, the Census has not released all data necessary
for Scan/US to incorporate complete 2010 results into their software. Scan/US has prepared 2011 estimates, which
incorporate available population and household information from the 2010 Census to create more current
demographic estimates.
6-2
Northstar Corridor Draw Area annual population growth was 1.62 percent from 2000 to 2011,
increasing the Northstar Corridor Draw Area population from 290,439 in 2000 to 346,506 in
2011. Northstar Corridor Draw Area is estimated to continue to increase at a rate of 0.94 percent
through 2016, when population is estimated to reach 363,015. Northstar Corridor Draw Area
household growth was 1.85 percent from 2000 to 2011, increasing households from 102,464 in
2000 to 125,352 in 2011. Northstar Corridor Draw Area households are estimated to increase at
an annual rate of 0.98 percent through 2016, increasing households to 131,616 by 2016.
Population growth for the Metropolitan Area was 0.77 percent annually from 2000 to 2011 and is
estimated at 0.71 percent annually through 2016. Metropolitan Area households have been
increasing at an annual rate of 0.91 percent between 2000 and 2011, with estimates showing this
household growth rate decreasing to 0.74 percent annually through 2016.
Household Income
Average household income for the Fridley Station Draw Area, shown in Table 6-2, is estimated
at $61,868 in 2011, 15.2 percent below the Northstar Corridor Draw Area average household
income of $72,977 and 22.6 percent below the Metropolitan Area average household income of
$79,958. Average household income for Fridley Station Draw Area is expected to increase to
$68,531 by 2016, below that of the Northstar Corridor Draw Area at $81,330 and the
Metropolitan Area at $87,063 in 2016.
Table 6-2
AVERAGE AND M EDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOM E
2000 CENSUS; 2011 AND 2016 ESTIM ATED
2000
2011E
2016E
Median Household Income
2000
2011E
2016E
Fridley
Station
Draw Area
Northstar
Corridor
Draw Area
M etropolitan
Area
$
59,907
61,868
68,531
$
67,047
72,977
81,330
$
68,484
79,958
87,063
$
51,293
56,305
59,554
$
58,141
66,487
71,581
$
54,667
62,465
66,464
E: Es tim a te d.
6-3
Household Density Distribution
Future household density for 2016 for the Fridley Station Draw Area is shown on Map 6-2.
Fridley Station Draw Area areas of high household density are located throughout the draw area.
Map 6-2
ESTIMATED 2016 HOUSEHOLD DENSITY
6-4
Household Income Distribution
Distribution of households with incomes above $75,000 in 2016, shown on Map 6-3,
demonstrates that more affluent households are located in pockets and distributed throughout the
Fridley Station Draw Area.
Map 6-3
ESTIMATED 2016 HOUSEHOLD INCOME: PERCENT ABOVE $75,000
6-5
The proportion of households in the Fridley Station Draw Area, Northstar Corridor Draw Area,
and Metropolitan Area with incomes above $75,000, $100,000, and $150,000 are shown in Table
6-3. In 2011, Fridley Station Draw Area households with incomes above $75,000 were 31.2
percent, below that of the Northstar Corridor Draw Area with 41.6 percent, and the Metropolitan
Area with 40.7 percent. Households with incomes above $100,000 in 2011 were 15.8 percent for
Fridley Station Draw Area, and over 20.0 percent in both the Northstar Corridor Draw Area and
Metropolitan Area.
Table 6-3
HOUSEHOLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION: 2000 CENSUS; 2011 AND 2016 ESTIMATED
Fridley Station
Draw Area
Number
Northstar Corridor
Draw Area
Percent
Number
Percent
M etropolitan
Area
Number
Percent
Households above $75,000
2000
2011E
2016E
4,744
6,183
7,299
24.5 %
31.2
35.6
31,465
52,170
61,727
30.7 %
41.6
46.9
326,285
459,718
517,863
31.9 %
40.7
44.2
2000
2011E
2016E
1,991
3,127
3,925
10.3 %
15.8
19.2
13,580
28,997
36,587
13.3 %
23.1
27.8
178,170
292,814
344,691
17.4 %
26.0
29.4
2000
2011E
2016E
479
893
1,139
2.5 %
4.5
5.6
3,160
7,811
10,114
3.1 %
6.2
7.7
63,482
118,549
142,421
6.2 %
10.5
12.2
E: Es tim a te d.
Population Age
Fridley Station Draw Area population is becoming older, as shown in Table 6-4. Population
aged 65 to 74 is expected to increase from 2,775 in 2011 to 3,615 in 2016, an increase of 840;
while the age cohort 75 to 84 is expected to increase from 1,431 to 1,677, an increase of 246.
The over 85 age cohort is also expected to increase modestly. These increases in the over 65
population indicates demand for senior housing and services.
Table 6-4
POPULATION BY AGE; 2011 AND 2016
Age Cohort
< 19
20 - 24
25 - 34
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 64
65 - 74
75 - 84
85 +
2011 Estimated
Number
Percent
13,482
3,312
6,319
6,897
8,206
5,489
2,775
1,431
554
2016 Estimated
Number
Percent
27.8 %
6.8
13.0
14.2
16.9
11.3
5.7
3.0
1.1
S o urc e : U.S . C e ns us , S c a n/US , Inc ., a nd M c C o m b Gro up, Ltd.
6-6
13,088
3,646
6,009
6,153
8,140
6,532
3,615
1,677
590
26.5 %
7.4
12.2
12.4
16.5
13.2
7.3
3.4
1.2
Demographic Characteristics
Demographic characteristics for the Fridley Station Draw Area, Northstar Corridor Draw Area,
and Metropolitan Area are summarized in the demographic snapshots contained in Tables 6-5, 66, and 6-7 on the following pages. These snapshots contain census data for 2000, as well as
estimates for 2011 and 2016. These estimates were provided by Scan/US, Inc., a source of
Census comparable demographic information. Significant characteristics of Fridley Station
Draw Area include the following:
♦ Fridley Station Draw Area estimated median age is 38 in 2016, which is higher than both
the Northstar Corridor Draw Area and the Metropolitan Area with 2016 median ages in
both areas at 37.
♦ Fridley Station Draw Area population is estimated to experience growth of 0.40 percent
annually, which is below that of the Northstar Corridor Draw Area and Metropolitan
Area annual population growth rate of 0.94 and 0.71 percent, respectively.
♦ In 2011, approximately 27.8 percent of the population in the Fridley Station Draw Area
was under the age of 19. By 2016, the Fridley Station Draw Area is expected to have
approximately 26.5 percent of the population under the age of 19, which is lower than
both the Northstar Corridor Draw Area and Metropolitan Area percentages of 28.8 and
26.9 percent, respectively.
♦ In 2011, approximately 9.8 percent of the population in the Fridley Station Draw Area
was over the age of 65, which is expected to increase to about 11.9 percent by 2016. The
Northstar Corridor Draw Area had 9.1 percent over age 65 in 2011 and is estimated at
10.9 percent in 2016; while the Metropolitan Area had 10.7 percent of the population
over the age of 65 in 2011, with expectations of an increase to 12.3 percent by 2016.
♦ By 2016, 35.6 percent of the households within the Fridley Station Draw Area are
estimated to have incomes above $75,000.
♦ Eighty percent of the population within the Fridley Station Draw Area is Caucasian,
which is expected to remain constant through 2016.
Additional demographic characteristics for the Fridley Station Draw Area are contained in
Appendix A.
STATION AREA SALES POTENTIAL
Retail sales potential represented by Northstar riders at the Fridley Station is based on estimated
purchasing power of the average 100 weekday rides. These riders represent about 0.5 percent of
the 19,788 Fridley Station Draw Area households in 2011. Draw area households are estimated
to increase to 20,485 in 2016, an increase of less than one percent.
Estimated retail and service sales potential of Northstar riders is a two-step process. Estimated
sales potential of Northstar riders for each retail or service category is estimated by McComb
Group proprietary sales potential model, which contains over 120 retail and service categories.
Next, store size is determined based on sales productivity and typical store size for each
category. This methodology is illustrated for 2016 in Table 6-8 using convenience goods stores
as an example to illustrate the amount of retail and service space that can be supported by
Northstar riders.
6-7
Table 6-5
McComb
Group, Ltd.
DEMOGRAPHIC AND INCOME SNAPSHOT
3/8/2013
Fridley Station Draw Area
SNAPSHOT
Population
Households
Families
Per Capita Income
Median Age
TRENDS
Population
Households
Families
2000 Census
48,467
19,363
13,032
$
24,084
$
51,293
$
59,907
2.49
37
1990 - 2000
0.41 %
1.29
0.19
2.72
3.44
2011 Estimated
48,463
19,788
12,331
$
25,352
$
56,305
$
61,868
2.44
37
2016 Projected
49,451
20,485
12,670
$
28,491
$
59,554
$
68,531
2.40
38
Annual Percent Change
2000 - 2011
0.00 %
0.20
-0.50
0.85
0.29
2011 - 2016
0.40 %
0.70
0.54
1.13
2.07
HOUSEHOLDS BY INCOME
Less than $15,000
$15,000 - $24,999
$25,000 - $34,999
$35,000 - $49,999
$50,000 - $74,999
$75,000 - $99,999
$100,000 - $149,999
$150,000 +
2000 Census
2011 Estimated
2016 Projected
Number Percent
Number Percent
Number
Percent
1,464
7.6 %
1,470
7.4 %
1,497
7.3 %
1,855
9.6
2,019
10.2
1,976
9.6
2,342
12.1
2,190
11.1
2,142
10.5
3,809
19.7
3,125
15.8
2,977
14.5
5,149
26.6
4,801
24.3
4,594
22.4
2,754
14.2
3,056
15.4
3,374
16.5
1,511
7.8
2,234
11.3
2,786
13.6
479
2.5
893
4.5
1,139
5.6
POPULATION BY AGE
<19
20-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75-84
85+
Number
12,858
3,294
7,180
7,936
6,856
5,059
3,310
1,610
362
Percent
Number
26.5 %
13,482
6.8
3,312
14.8
6,319
16.4
6,897
14.1
8,206
10.4
5,489
6.8
2,775
3.3
1,431
0.7
554
Percent
Number
27.8 %
13,088
6.8
3,646
13.0
6,009
14.2
6,153
16.9
8,140
11.3
6,532
5.7
3,615
3.0
1,677
1.1
590
Percent
26.5 %
7.4
12.2
12.4
16.5
13.2
7.3
3.4
1.2
RACE AND ETHNICITY
White
Black
Native American
Asian/Pacific Islander
Other Races
Number
43,832
1,113
355
1,515
1,653
Percent
Number
90.4 %
38,747
2.3
3,658
0.7
478
3.1
2,551
3.4
3,029
Percent
Number
80.0 %
39,564
7.5
3,737
1.0
497
5.3
2,567
6.3
3,088
Percent
80.0 %
7.6
1.0
5.2
6.2
Hispanic (Any Race)
1,115
2.3
Source: U.S. Census, Scan/US, Inc. and McComb Group, Ltd.
6-8
3,056
6.3
4,326
8.7
Table 6-6
McComb
Group, Ltd.
3/8/2013
Northstar Corridor Draw Area
SNAPSHOT
Population
Households
Families
Per Capita Income
Median Age
TRENDS
Population
Households
Families
2000 Census
290,439
102,464
77,618
$
23,876
$
58,141
$
67,047
2.81
33
1990 - 2000
1.47 %
2.19
1.51
3.65
4.61
2011 Estimated
346,506
125,352
92,167
$
26,538
$
66,487
$
72,977
2.75
35
2016 Projected
363,015
131,616
96,124
$
29,636
$
71,581
$
81,330
2.74
37
2000 - 2011
1.62 %
1.85
1.57
1.23
0.77
2011 - 2016
0.94 %
0.98
0.84
1.49
2.19
Less than $15,000
$15,000 - $24,999
$25,000 - $34,999
$35,000 - $49,999
$50,000 - $74,999
$75,000 - $99,999
$100,000 - $149,999
$150,000 +
2000 Census
2011 Estimated
2016 Projected
Number Percent
Number Percent
Number
Percent
6,162
6.0 %
7,355
5.9 %
7,439
5.7 %
7,150
7.0
8,091
6.5
7,930
6.0
9,965
9.7
9,960
7.9
9,441
7.2
17,537
17.1
16,738
13.4
15,569
11.8
30,146
29.4
31,016
24.7
29,493
22.4
17,885
17.5
23,173
18.5
25,140
19.1
10,420
10.2
21,186
16.9
26,473
20.1
3,160
3.1
7,811
6.2
10,114
7.7
POPULATION BY AGE
<19
20-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75-84
85+
Number Percent
Number Percent
Number
94,967
32.7 % 102,340
29.5 % 104,620
16,851
5.8
21,968
6.3
24,643
45,255
15.6
47,311
13.7
44,811
54,203
18.7
52,867
15.3
48,640
38,636
13.3
53,508
15.4
55,285
22,028
7.6
36,911
10.7
45,231
11,144
3.8
19,054
5.5
25,160
5,667
2.0
9,016
2.6
10,859
1,654
0.6
3,513
1.0
3,751
Percent
28.8 %
6.8
12.3
13.4
15.2
12.5
6.9
3.0
1.0
RACE AND ETHNICITY
White
Black
Native American
Other Races
Number Percent
Number Percent
Number
275,452
94.8 % 311,714
90.0 % 326,795
3,576
1.2
11,536
3.3
12,022
1,582
0.5
1,922
0.6
2,014
3,898
1.3
9,301
2.7
9,610
5,931
2.0
12,033
3.5
12,574
Percent
90.0 %
3.3
0.6
2.6
3.5
Hispanic (Any Race)
4,327
1.5
6-9
11,743
3.4
16,340
4.5
Table 6-7
McComb
Group, Ltd.
2/28/2013
Seven-County Metropolitan Area
SNAPSHOT
Population
Households
Families
Per Capita Income
Median Age
2000 Census
2,642,056
1,021,454
658,159
$
27,227
$
54,667
$
68,484
2.53
34
2011 Estimated
2,875,666
1,128,357
711,347
$
31,731
$
62,465
$
79,958
2.50
36
2016 Projected
2,979,795
1,170,688
730,364
$
34,596
$
66,464
$
87,063
2.50
37
1990 - 2000
1.45 %
1.56
1.21
3.69
4.46
2000 - 2011
0.77 %
0.91
0.71
1.22
1.42
2011 - 2016
0.71 %
0.74
0.53
1.25
1.72
Less than $15,000
$15,000 - $24,999
$25,000 - $34,999
$35,000 - $49,999
$50,000 - $74,999
$75,000 - $99,999
$100,000 - $149,999
$150,000 +
2000 Census
Number
Percent
94,987
9.3 %
94,307
9.2
112,850
11.0
159,411
15.6
233,614
22.9
148,115
14.5
114,688
11.2
63,482
6.2
2011 Estimated
Number
Percent
100,226
8.9 %
88,724
7.9
100,920
8.9
152,005
13.5
226,764
20.1
166,904
14.8
174,265
15.4
118,549
10.5
2016 Projected
Number
Percent
104,550
8.9 %
86,306
7.4
94,851
8.1
147,462
12.6
219,656
18.8
173,172
14.8
202,270
17.3
142,421
12.2
POPULATION BY AGE
<19
20-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75-84
85+
Number
768,028
173,732
411,155
469,324
363,592
200,980
130,615
90,292
34,338
Percent
29.1 %
6.6
15.6
17.8
13.8
7.6
4.9
3.4
1.3
Number
783,409
189,862
417,260
416,462
440,983
317,979
164,660
97,689
47,362
Percent
27.2 %
6.6
14.5
14.5
15.3
11.1
5.7
3.4
1.6
Number
801,940
192,262
396,052
407,567
433,762
381,648
216,477
101,987
48,100
Percent
26.9 %
6.5
13.3
13.7
14.6
12.8
7.3
3.4
1.6
RACE AND ETHNICITY
White
Black
Native American
Other Races
Number
2,238,117
156,620
20,417
122,239
104,663
Percent
84.7 %
5.9
0.8
4.6
4.0
Number
2,267,068
240,876
21,073
186,359
160,290
Percent
78.8 %
8.4
0.7
6.5
5.6
Number
2,349,676
249,475
21,737
193,059
165,848
Percent
78.9 %
8.4
0.7
6.5
5.6
TRENDS
Population
Households
Families
Hispanic (Any Race)
95,902
3.6
6-10
179,857
6.3
228,964
7.7
Using supermarkets as an example, rider sales potential in 2016 is estimated at $278,000, as
shown in Table 6-8. Supportable gross leasable area (GLA) for a supermarket is estimated by
dividing sales potential by $460 per square foot, sales productivity appropriate for a supermarket.
This results in supportable GLA of 604 square feet of supermarket space, which is considerably
smaller than the range of supermarket store size. Store GLA in other retail categories
supportable by Northstar riders is also shown in Table 6-8. Supportable space for drug stores
and liquor stores is 267 and 131 square feet of GLA, respectively. These estimates of sales
potential represent rider spending potential for each category. Spending potential for an
individual store will be less as consumers usually shop at several stores in each category.
Table 6-8
FRIDLEY NORTHSTAR RIDER
RETAIL SALES POTENTIAL AND SUPPORTABLE SPACE BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY; 2016
Category
Sales
Potential
Sales/
Sq. Ft.
Supportable
Sq. Ft.
Convenience Goods
Supermarkets
Convenience Food
Drug & Proprietary Stores
Hardware
Liquor
Florist
$ 278,000
6,000
123,000
19,000
49,000
7,000
$ 460
300
460
185
375
190
604
20
267
103
131
37
Low
Store Size
Median
High
31,245
1,349
8,280
5,638
1,305
766
52,419
2,085
11,700
13,831
2,856
1,600
69,462
5,323
23,714
27,743
7,210
5,396
Source: McComb Group, Lt d.
Fridley’s retail businesses are consistent with those of a neighborhood shopping area that offers
convenience goods, food services, and services that are typically purchased close to home.
Consumers typically drive further distances to patronize shopping goods and destination type
retailers.
Retail stores consistent with a neighborhood shopping area and supportable GLA in the Fridley
Station area are contained in Table 6-9. Northstar riders do not represent sufficient sales
potential to support the types of stores consistent with a neighborhood shopping area in Fridley.
The list of businesses is not all inclusive of store types, but the supportable GLA result would be
similar.
This analysis points out that Northstar riders do not have sufficient spending potential to support
stores or services in the station area. They do, however, have spending potential that can be
important additional sales to existing and future Fridley businesses. Many of these riders may
already shop in Fridley, however, others may not. The Northstar brings these riders to Fridley on
a regular basis and increases the convenience of shopping in Fridley on a regular basis.
Complete tables showing supportable square footage by retail and service category for each
target year are contained in the Appendix B.
The last column in Table 6-9 contains low, median, and high store size for each store type from
Dollars & Cents of Shopping Centers, published by the Urban Land Institute. Median store size
indicates a typical size for a store in each retail category. To the extent that supportable square
6-11
footage is above the low store size, sales potential exists to support that store type. Many
retailers will desire stores that are closer to the median store size.
Table 6-9
SUPPORTABLE SPACE BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY; 2016 AND 2020
(Gross Leasable Area)
Merchandise Category
2016
2020
Low
Store Size
Median
High
Convenience Goods
Supermarkets
Convenience Food
Hardware
Liquor
Florist
604
20
267
103
131
37
643
20
285
108
139
42
31,245
1,349
8,280
5,638
1,305
766
52,419
2,085
11,700
13,831
2,856
1,600
69,462
5,323
23,714
27,743
7,210
5,396
Food Service
Full-Service Restaurants
Limited Service Restaurants
Snack & Beverage Places
Ice Cream & Soft Serve
Doughnut Shops
Coffee Shops
375
258
77
9
18
25
400
275
80
9
18
25
2,000
1,335
850
902
744
881
4,500
3,000
1,500
1,148
1,200
1,500
9,775
3,400
2,495
1,570
2,153
2,000
Services
Beauty Salons
Laundries & Dry Cleaners
Child Day Care Services
73
160
1,090
82
180
1,200
455
1,222
3,059
788
2,024
5,050
1,422
3,734
7,495
Health Care
Offices of Physicians
Offices of Dentists
Offices of Chiropractors
2,742
1,267
183
3,000
1,386
200
969
1,090
1,090
1,652
1,700
1,600
4,008
3,970
3,970
Source: McComb Group, Ltd.
Retail GLA supported by estimated sales potential for each retail store category is based on
estimated sales per square foot (in 2012 dollars) by store type. Sales per square foot estimates
are derived from median store sales per square foot for each tenant type contained in Dollar &
Cents of Shopping Centers. Supportable GLA is calculated by dividing sales potential by sales
per square foot. This analysis was used to provide an estimate of the supportable square footage
in each retail category. The detailed tables resulting from these calculations are contained in
Appendix B.
6-12
Chapter VII
FRIDLEY STATION AREA DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Northstar station area potential for residential, retail, and commercial development is dependent
on many factors including location, convenience, and the geographic area serviced by the station.
The amount and type of retail and commercial development that can be supported at each station
area will depend on its ability to capitalize on the economic vitality of the geographic area served
by the station. An important consideration in retail or commercial development is the station
area’s convenience for potential customers that are not Northstar riders.
FRIDLEY STATION
The Fridley Station, the closest inbound stop, is located at 61st Avenue NE and the BNSF rail
line, as shown on Map 7-1. The station contains two park-n-ride lots east and west of the station.
The two platforms and parking lots are connected by an underground tunnel. Elevators are
available for ADA access. Access to the east parking lot is provided by 61st Avenue NE, which
intersects with University Avenue four blocks to the east. Access to the west parking lot is
provided from East River Road by 61st Way. Both University Avenue and East River Road have
interchanges with I-694 about three-quarters of a mile south.
Map 7-1
FRIDLEY STATION LOCATION
7-1
Fridley HRA owns the land where the east park-n-ride site was built and the Metropolitan
Council or Metro Transit leases (a 200-year lease) it from the HRA. The west park-n-ride side of
the station is owned by NCDA. Other stations along the Northstar Corridor were funded with
state bond funds and private development is prohibited on the other station properties. Fridley
and Anoka station property can accommodate private development as they are city-owned.
Commuter Service
The Fridley Station has 668 parking spaces, of which about 15 percent are utilized during the
week. Ridership at Fridley Station is the lowest on the line, approximately 100 riders per day
inbound and 90 trips outbound during the week, as shown in Table 7-1. Inbound and outbound
weekend service attracted about 155 riders per day.
Table 7-1
NORTHSTAR COM M UTER RAIL RIDERSHIP BY STATION; 2012
Station
Big Lake
Elk River
Ramsey
Anoka
Coon Rapids
Fridley
Weekday
Inbound
Outbound
360
370
129
250
250
100
290
340
129
250
230
90
Weekend
Inbound
Outbound
200
130
19
90
120
80
200
125
17
85
115
75
So urce: NCDA
Fridley Station is served by five daily inbound trains during the morning commute period, and
one inbound evening train, as shown in Figure 7-1. There is one morning outbound train and
four evening outbound trains for a total of 11 trains per day. Inbound scheduled travel times are
16 minutes and outbound trips are 13 minutes.
Figure 7-1
NORTHSTAR SCHEDULE – FRIDLEY STATION
Inbound
Outbound
During a visit to the Fridley Station, there were a cluster of cars parked near the entrance drive at
East River Road and 61st Way near MTC bus stops on East River Road. MTC Express Route
7-2
852 serves this location with five rush hour departures, as shown in Table 7-2. Northstar also
has five morning departures to Target Field with a 16 minute travel time. This station is
convenient for riders that work in the Target Field station’s vicinity. If the riders work in the
high density downtown core, a transfer to an MTC bus or a long walk is required, which
increases the travel time. A bus transfer can add up to 15 minutes to the travel time depending
on the downtown location.
Table 7-2
FRIDLEY STATION: TRAVEL TIME TO DOWNTOWN
NORTHSTAR AND MTC #852
852 Departure
Minutes
Marquette
& 7th
& 11th
Hennepin
& 4th
6:02 AM
7:00 AM
7:33 AM
7:57 AM
9:00 AM
Northstar (All Departures)
12
13
13
13
12
15
17
17
17
15
Target
Center
18
20
20
20
18
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
16
Source: metrotransit.org.
Bus 852 morning travel times to Marquette Avenue and Seventh Street range from 15 to 17
minutes depending on the departure time, as shown in Table 7-2. Travel times to other
downtown destinations are also shown. This is a considerable time saving and eliminates an
inconvenient transfer. After leaving the bus stop at River Edge Way, Bus 852 travels I-694 and
I-94 to downtown exiting at Fourth Street. These freeways are relatively congestion free.
The outbound evening trips are also more convenient and shorter than an MTC/Northstar trip.
Evening Northstar travel time is 13 minutes for all departures. Evening Bus 852 travel times
from Marquette and Seventh to Fridley range from 14 to 17 minutes with no transfer, as shown
in Table 7-3.
Table 7-3
FRIDLEY STATION: TRAVEL TIME FROM DOWNTOWN
NORTHSTAR AND MTC #852
852 Departure
Minutes
2nd Avenue
Hennepin
& 11th
& 7th
& 3rd
4:38 PM
5:09 PM
5:41 PM
6:38 PM
7:38 PM
Northstar (All Departures)
19
19
17
16
16
17
17
15
14
14
Source: metrotransit.org.
7-3
12
12
11
10
10
Target
Center
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
13
Northstar ridership to and from Fridley Station is likely to remain low until employment in the
vicinity of Target Field grows and/or congestion increases on the freeway.
Traffic Counts
Traffic counts on the primary street are an important commercial site criteria. Traffic counts on
the major north/south routes serving the Fridley Station are very strong. University Avenue has
37,000 trips north of I-694 and 32,500 trips south of I-694. Traffic counts on 57th Avenue are
9,100 reflecting the adjacent retail area. Traffic counts on 61st Avenue west of University
Avenue are 2,600 and Main Street are 3,100 south of 61st Avenue. East River Road traffic
counts are about half of those on University Avenue: 15,700 north of I-694 and 16,500 in the
vicinity of 61st Avenue. Traffic counts on I-694 are very high: 124,000 east of University
Avenue increasing to 145,000 west of East River Road.
Table 7-4
FRIDLEY STATION AREA
AVERAGE DAILY TRAFFIC COUNTS; 2010
Traffic
Count
Location
University Ave north of I-694
University Ave south of I-694
57th Ave west of University Ave
61st Ave west of University Ave
Main St south of 61st Ave
East River Rd north of I-694
East River Rd at 61st Ave
37,000
32,500
9,100
2,600
3,100
15,700
16,500
Source: Mn/DOT.
Surrounding Land Use and Development
The dominant land uses west, north, and east of the station are single family neighborhoods, as
shown in Figure 7-2. Robert Stevenson Elementary School is located southwest of the station.
The area south of the station is occupied by light industrial uses. Most housing was constructed
in the 1950s through the 1970s, and consists of ramblers and split level homes. The majority of
home values range from the low to mid $100,000s. However, some smaller, older homes are
listed as low as $50,000 to $60,000. Closer to the Mississippi River there are homes which
approach the $200,000 price range.
The Hyde Park neighborhood located to the east has a mixture of apartments and 1950s to 1960s
housing. Apartments are a non-conforming use under the zoning for the area and have suffered
from disinvestment as a result. Some homes are in fair to poor condition as well.
There are viable industrial uses to the south of the station on the east side of the alignment,
including an electrical contractor and metal fabrication businesses. Other viable industrial
businesses are located on the west side of the rail line including a corrugated box manufacturer.
A vacant 25-acre development site occupies the northwest corner of the rail line and I-694 with
access from East River Road.
7-4
Figure 7-2
FRIDLEY STATION EXISTING CONDITIONS
Georgetown Apartments are located further west between East River Road and the Mississippi
River. This is a market rate complex containing approximately 500 units built in the 1960s.
Other small aging apartment buildings are located along Island Park Drive and Charles Street.
The Anoka County Riverfront-Islands of Peace Park is located along the Mississippi River to the
west of these apartments. The City is seeking ways to create better pedestrian, bicycle, and
vehicle connections to these parks and Fridley Station.
One of Fridley’s major commercial intersections is at University Avenue and I-694. Cub Foods
anchors a small shopping area at University Avenue and 57th Avenue. Cub recently remodeled
its store and is adding additional retailers. A Home Depot store is located on the west side of
Main Street.
7-5
STATION AREA PLAN
The City has designated a 335-acre site surrounding the station as a TOD District, illustrated in
Figure 7-3. The City wishes to encourage pedestrian friendly development around the station,
improve multi-modal connections to the station, create a more livable neighborhood, and provide
life cycle housing for different income levels and household types. The TOD District
encompasses the station and surrounding industrial uses, the Hyde Park neighborhood, and the
multifamily developments in the Islands of Peace Park area. A TOD zoning overlay has also been
adopted that allows lot coverage up to 40 percent, or higher if public open space is being
provided. Maximum setbacks are 15 feet and zero lot line setbacks are encouraged.
Figure 7-3
FRIDLEY TOD DISTRICT
In addition to rezoning to allow for more TOD in the Fridley Station area, the City is seeking to
redevelop underutilized parcels within the TOD District. The City’s 2030 Comprehensive Plan
highlights both the current perception that the area lacks diverse retail options, as well as the
potential the Northstar line and TOD-driven redevelopment can play in the area. The
Comprehensive Plan identifies the Cub Foods location at the intersection of University Avenue
and I-694 a candidate for redevelopment, with an owner interested in potential redevelopment.
Additionally, the City is considering rezoning a vacant 25-acre industrial site in the northeast
corner of East River Road and I-694 to create a new retail site in the area. The Fridley Housing
7-6
and Redevelopment Authority (HRA) is also interested in redeveloping several vacant
commercial properties in the station area.
Other economic development goals that are complementary to TOD include attracting more
retail stores to reduce retail leakage; attract more restaurants, including fine dining; maintain the
commercial (and industrial) tax base; and to improve east-west connectivity. The 2030
Comprehensive Plan also suggests the continued pursuit of a transit tax increment financing
(TIF) district for the station area to help fund redevelopment projects. It also recommends a
measure that would authorize the use of funds pooled from old TIF districts that would otherwise
go unused.
Housing
The City’s Comprehensive Plan identifies several key housing goals that are complementary to
TOD. As an aging community there is a need for more low maintenance and maintenance free
housing. The Plan states that the City should encourage the development of senior-oriented
townhome and condominium projects. In addition, Fridley’s rental housing is aging and not up
to modern standards for design and amenities compared to what is available in surrounding
communities. Private reinvestment and development of new multifamily properties is
encouraged.
Infrastructure Plans and Needs
As part of a citywide need to improve east-west connectivity, the City is examining the
feasibility of extending 57th Avenue “under” the railroad tracks. That cost is unknown at this
point. The City of Fridley has TLC grant funds that will install bike lanes and sidewalk on the
west side of Main Street from the Fridley Station to 57th Avenue. The City has also been
awarded a $1 million TE grant to build a pedestrian bridge over I-694 at Main Street, including
trail connection to the west side of Main Street south to the Minneapolis border at 44th,
connecting to the bridge over the BNSF switching yard and connecting to bike trails that lead
into downtown Minneapolis. Additional sidewalks and pedestrian safety improvements are also
needed on Main Street. A better pedestrian and bicycle connection to Islands of Peace Park is
also a goal.
The City of Fridley has SRTS funding for MRRT train enhancement between Georgetown
Apartments and Stevenson Elementary on East River Road. The City has applied for a second
SRTS grant to fund bike lane crossings over University Avenue at 61st Avenue. The City is also
currently considering applying for CIMS grant funds to build a pedestrian overpass bridge at 61st
Avenue and University Avenue to connect anticipated new housing in the HRA’s Gateway
Northeast project area to Fridley Station.
Land Use Change
Redevelopment area potential land use changes for the Northstar TOD area are contained in
Table 7-5 from the Comprehensive Plan. The Comprehensive Plan envisions a reduction in
industrial acreage by 37.5 acres and an increase in commercial by 26.0 acres. Land devoted to
residential is planned to decrease slightly, and public space increases by 14.2 acres. The most
significant change is represented by the former Tiro site, which could be developed as a retail
shopping center. The site would also be suitable for commercial office buildings.
7-7
Table 7-5
NORTHSTAR TOD
REDEVELOPM ENT AREA POTENTIAL LAND USE CHANGES
Type
Commercial
Industrial
Residential
Public
Present
Use
(acres)
Potential
Future Use
(acres)
Change in
Land Use
(Acres)
44.7
91.4
61.9
70.7
53.9
59.2
14.2
+ 26.0
-37.5
-2.7
+14.2
So urce: City o f Fridley.
Plans for the station area are further refined in the Fridley Northstar TOD TIF Master Plan,
contained in Figure 7-4. This plan envisions short- and long-term changes in the TOD area
including new and updated multi-family housing and increased mixed-use development. Shortterm potential includes townhome development adjacent to the Fridley Station east parking lot
along Main Street and north of the Fridley Station west parking area north of 61st ½ Way. The
vacant former Tiro parcel is shown as mixed-use, which would accommodate retail, office, or
even residential.
Figure 7-4
7-8
The industrial area west of the rail line and south of the Fridley Station is slated for eventual
mixed-use development. Long-term, the area west of East River Road would undergo
redevelopment with multi-family housing with rental and ownership options; and Islands of
Peace Park would be enhanced. This plan generally maintains the residential areas west, north,
and east of the station area and provides for redevelopment of the light industrial area flanking
the rail line south of the east station.
DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES
Fridley Station enjoys a convenient location between two north/south arterial routes with
convenient access to neighborhood-scale shopping at 57th Avenue. Creating a connection under
the railroad tracks at 57th Avenue would improve development opportunities for areas west of
Main Street.
Residential Development
Market research conducted in Chapter IV estimates that Fridley has the potential to grow by
2,800 households by 2035 based on stabilized market demand. The average stabilized demand
for the next five years is about 140 units per year. This estimate is significantly higher than the
average growth of 35 units over the past 10 years, which appears to have been constrained by
lack of available housing product in Fridley. Between 2007 and 2011, multi-family units have
averaged 85 percent of Fridley’s building permits. In the future, multi-family demand is
estimated to range from 85 to 90 percent of stabilized market demand. This would be about 119
to 125 units per year.
The Fridley Station area could potentially attract 50 to 60 percent (60 to 75 units) of stabilized
multi-family housing demand with units that are properly marketed and competitively priced.
These stabilized housing demand estimates are based on normal household formation rates.
The Fridley Station area has the potential to capture 20 to 25 percent of stabilized multi-family
market demand over the next 20 years in the half-mile ring around the station depending on
available development sites and demand for housing. The TOD Master Plan provides for new
housing adjacent to the west and east station areas. The potential market demand could also
provide for increased density in the residential areas west of East River Road in the ensuing
years as market forces create demand for new housing.
Retail Uses
Shopping areas in southern Fridley were developed 40 to 50 years ago when retail store types
were considerably different than they are today. The 25-acre parcel in the northeast corner of I694 and East River Road presents an opportunity to expand retail offerings in Fridley with a high
visibility site. This site would also be suitable for business park uses should the retail option not
prove feasible.
Opportunity Sites
Short- and long-term development opportunities are contained in Figure 7-4. Short-term
development opportunities include parcels adjacent to the east and west station parking areas.
7-9
Long-term redevelopment opportunities are represented by almost all of the privately owned land
west of the rail line south of the station area.
Short-Term Developments
Development planning in the station area should include evaluating long-term parking needs at
the Fridley Station. The parking lots are only about 15 percent utilized and only a portion of
those passengers ride the Northstar. This indicates that there may be excess parking that could
be converted to developable land. The City of Fridley, NCDA, and Metro Transit should review
parking utilization and transit ridership, and determine the appropriate amount of parking needed
to serve both bus and Northstar riders in the future. Any excess parking area could be converted
to residential development. If there is additional land, the potential development opportunities
may involve a wider range of housing types.
The station area sites are appropriate for a variety of multi-family housing options including
townhomes and multi-family housing consisting of market rate, affordable, or senior housing. A
senior independent living community could be developed on the east station area site. This site
is conveniently located about three blocks north of the neighborhood shopping area at 57th
Avenue. On the west side of the rail line, a portion of the parking lot could be utilized for
housing and possibly incorporate additional land occupied by single family homes north of 61st
½ Way east of East River Road. A development could be built solely on the parking site, but the
larger assembled site would allow for more development flexibility.
The north portion of the former Tiro site at the corner of East River Road and I-694 is within the
one-half mile ring of the station. This site is a short-term development opportunity. The site is
suitable for a retail or commercial office use that would benefit from its excellent freeway
visibility.
Developments that generate high traffic volumes will require improved access from East River
Road. Due to its site’s large size, it may be suitable for residential development if a retail or
office use does not occur. This would be particularly true if the industrial use to the north were
to change.
The land along the Mississippi River west of East River Road between the station area and I-694
is a potential opportunity area. There is a mixture of residential, recreation, and educational uses
that could undergo transformation in the future. Georgetown Apartments, at the southern end of
this area, are well maintained with high occupancy and some buildings are within walking
distance of the station. Market pressure to redevelop these apartments would be in the future, but
it is a potential long-term opportunity. North of this property, the Fridley HRA owns several
affordable housing properties, which could be eventual candidates for redevelopment. These
properties could be considered as part of a larger master planned community of affordable and/or
market rate housing. The location adjacent to Chase Island Park, as well as the station area is
appealing for residential development.
Circulation and Connectivity Improvements
One of the impediments to development of opportunity sites in the Fridley Station area is
connectivity. The best short-term investments in the station area may be to improve the aesthetic
experience and connectivity for pedestrians and bicyclists, as well as cars. This could help to
7-10
attract or accelerate development in the station area. It could also help to improve ridership by
better connecting nearby multi-family properties, single family neighborhoods, and employers.
The City should continue its efforts to add and improve sidewalks along Main Street. The East
River Road Corridor should be a major focus of streetscape and connectivity investments. Good
bicycle infrastructure will extend the station’s non-automobile capture area well beyond the onehalf mile ring. The 57th Avenue extension will greatly improve east/west connectivity. This
should be planned as a multi-modal or “complete street” facility to provide improved access to
the Tiro site.
7-11
Appendices
FRIDLEY STATION
TOD ANALYSIS
APPENDIX A
DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS
Table A-1 Fridley Station and Northstar Corridor Draw Areas and Seven-County
Metropolitan Area; Population and Households: 2000 Census; 2011 and 2016
Estimated
Metropolitan Area; Average and Median Household Incomes: 2000 Census;
2011 and 2016 Estimated
Metropolitan Area; Household Income: 2000 Census; 2011 and 2016 Estimated
Metropolitan Area; Households, Families and Household Size: 2000 Census;
2011 and 2016 Estimated
Metropolitan Area; Educational Attainment: 2000 Census; 2011 and 2016
Estimated
Metropolitan Area; Gender and Marital Status: 2000 Census; 2011 and 2016
Estimated
Metropolitan Area; Age Distribution: 2000 Census; 2011 and 2016 Estimated
Metropolitan Area; Ethnicity: 2000 Census; 2011 and 2016 Estimated
Table A-1
FRIDLEY STATION AND NORTHSTAR CORRIDOR DRAW AREAS,
POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS: 2000 CENSUS; 2011 AND 2016 ESTIMATED
Trade Area / Year
2000
2011 E
2016 E
Population
Rate of
Number
Change
Households
Rate of
Number
Change
48,467
48,463
49,451
NA
(0.00) %
0.40
19,363
19,788
20,485
NA
0.20 %
0.69
NORTHSTAR CORRIDOR DRAW AREA
2000
290,439
2011 E
346,506
2016 E
363,015
NA
1.62 %
0.94
102,464
125,352
131,616
NA
1.85 %
0.98
SEVEN-COUNTY METRO AREA
2000
2011 E
2016 E
NA
0.77 %
0.71
1,021,454
1,128,357
1,170,688
NA
0.91 %
0.74
N/A: Not Available.
E: Estimated.
Source: U.S. Census, Scan/US and McComb Group, Ltd.
2,642,056
2,875,666
2,979,795
Table A-2
AVERAGE AND MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOMES
2000 CENSUS; 2011 AND 2016 ESTIMATED
Income Type / Year
2000
2011 E
2016 E
2000
2011 E
2016 E
Fridley
Station
Draw Area
Northstar
Corridor
Draw Area
SevenCounty
Metro Area
$
59,907
61,868
68,531
$
67,047
72,977
81,330
$
68,484
79,958
87,063
$
51,293
56,305
59,554
$
58,141
66,487
71,581
$
54,667
62,465
66,464
E: Estimated.
Table A-3
HOUSEHOLD INCOME: 2000 CENSUS; 2011 AND 2016 ESTIMATED
2000
Number
Percent
Households
Average Size
Household Income
Median
Average
Households Above $50,000
Income Distribution
Less than $15,000
$15,000 - $24,999
$25,000 - $34,999
$35,000 - $49,999
$50,000 - $74,999
$75,000 - $99,999
$100,000 - $149,999
$150,000 +
19,363
2.49
$ 51,293
$ 59,907
9,893
4,744
1,464
1,855
2,342
3,809
5,149
2,754
1,511
479
Households
102,464
Average Size
2.81
Household Income
Median
$ 58,141
Average
$ 67,047
61,611
31,465
Income Distribution
Less than $15,000
6,162
$15,000 - $24,999
7,150
$25,000 - $34,999
9,965
$35,000 - $49,999
17,537
$50,000 - $74,999
30,146
$75,000 - $99,999
17,885
$100,000 - $149,999
10,420
$150,000 +
3,160
Households
Average Size
Household Income
Median
Average
Income Distribution
Less than $15,000
$15,000 - $24,999
$25,000 - $34,999
$35,000 - $49,999
$50,000 - $74,999
$75,000 - $99,999
$100,000 - $149,999
$150,000 +
N/A
N/A
2011 E
Number
Percent
19,788
2.44
N/A
$ 56,305
N/A
$ 61,868
51.1 %
10,984
24.5
6,183
7.6 %
9.6
12.1
19.7
26.6
14.2
7.8
2.5
N/A
N/A
1,470
2,019
2,190
3,125
4,801
3,056
2,234
893
125,352
2.75
N/A
$ 66,487
N/A
$ 72,977
60.2 %
83,186
30.7
52,170
6.0 %
7.0
9.7
17.1
29.4
17.5
10.2
3.1
7,355
8,091
9,960
16,738
31,016
23,173
21,186
7,811
1,021,454
2.53
N/A
N/A
$ 54,667
$ 68,484
559,899
326,285
N/A
$ 62,465
N/A
$ 79,958
54.8 %
686,482
31.9
459,718
94,987
94,307
112,850
159,411
233,614
148,115
114,688
63,482
N/A: Not Available or Not Applicable.
E: Estimated.
9.3 %
9.2
11.0
15.6
22.9
14.5
11.2
6.2
1,128,357
2.50
100,226
88,724
100,920
152,005
226,764
166,904
174,265
118,549
N/A
N/A
2016 E
Number
Percent
20,485
2.40
N/A
$ 59,554
N/A
$ 68,531
55.5 %
11,893
31.2
7,299
7.4 %
10.2
11.1
15.8
24.3
15.4
11.3
4.5
N/A
N/A
1,497
1,976
2,142
2,977
4,594
3,374
2,786
1,139
131,616
2.74
N/A
$ 71,581
N/A
$ 81,330
66.4 %
91,220
41.6
61,727
5.9 %
6.5
7.9
13.4
24.7
18.5
16.9
6.2
N/A
N/A
7,439
7,930
9,441
15,569
29,493
25,140
26,473
10,114
1,170,688
2.50
N/A
$ 66,464
N/A
$ 87,063
60.8 %
737,519
40.7
517,863
8.9 %
7.9
8.9
13.5
20.1
14.8
15.4
10.5
104,550
86,306
94,851
147,462
219,656
173,172
202,270
142,421
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
58.1 %
35.6
7.3 %
9.6
10.5
14.5
22.4
16.5
13.6
5.6
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
69.3 %
46.9
5.7 %
6.0
7.2
11.8
22.4
19.1
20.1
7.7
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
63.0 %
44.2
8.9 %
7.4
8.1
12.6
18.8
14.8
17.3
12.2
Table A-4
HOUSEHOLDS, FAMILIES AND HOUSEHOLD SIZE; 2000 CENSUS; 2011 AND 2016 ESTIMATED
2000
Number
Percent
Households
Families
As Percent of Households
Household Size
1 Person
2 Persons
3-4 Persons
5+ Persons
19,363
13,032
2011 E
Number
Percent
19,788
12,331
67.3 %
4,854
6,973
5,957
1,578
25.1 %
36.0
30.8
8.2
2016 E
Number
Percent
20,485
12,670
62.3 %
6,138
6,402
5,605
1,643
31.0 %
32.4
28.3
8.3
61.9 %
6,540
6,605
5,726
1,614
2.49
2.44
2.40
Households
102,464
Families
77,618
125,352
92,167
131,616
96,124
Household Size
1 Person
2 Persons
3-4 Persons
5 + Persons
18,582
32,918
38,483
12,451
Households
Families
Household Size
1 Person
2 Persons
3-4 Persons
5 + Persons
75.8 %
18.1 %
32.1
37.6
12.2
73.5 %
26,032
39,149
45,207
14,951
20.8 %
31.2
36.1
11.9
73.0 %
28,435
40,193
47,130
15,846
2.81
2.75
2.74
1,021,454
658,159
1,128,357
711,347
1,170,688
730,364
64.4 %
281,086
332,671
308,027
99,670
E: Estimated.
2.53
27.5 %
32.6
30.2
9.8
63.0 %
338,115
347,289
332,510
110,443
2.50
30.0 %
30.8
29.5
9.8
31.9 %
32.2
28.0
7.9
21.6 %
30.5
35.8
12.0
62.4 %
363,873
346,851
342,801
117,163
2.50
31.1 %
29.6
29.3
10.0
Table A-5
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT: 2000 CENSUS; 2011 AND 2016 ESTIMATED
Attainment
No College
Some College/2 yr. Degree
College Graduate
Graduate School
2000
Number
Percent
2011 E
Number
Percent
2016 E
Number
Percent
10,829
10,774
5,474
1,933
37.3 %
37.1
18.9
6.7
10,121
10,409
5,586
2,476
35.4 %
36.4
19.5
8.7
10,143
10,549
6,303
2,906
33.9 %
35.3
21.1
9.7
No College
57,694
68,149
College Graduate
27,690
Graduate School
9,038
35.5 %
41.9
17.0
5.6
68,639
82,778
41,687
14,421
33.1 %
39.9
20.1
6.9
69,515
86,251
47,927
16,764
31.5 %
39.1
21.7
7.6
No College
College Graduate
Graduate School
26.7 %
34.9
26.7
11.8
431,698
565,605
517,528
256,881
24.4 %
31.9
29.2
14.5
435,747
574,131
535,262
292,476
23.7 %
31.2
29.1
15.9
412,047
538,291
411,245
181,479
E: Estimated.
Table A-6
GENDER AND MARITAL STATUS: 2000 CENSUS; 2011 AND 2016 ESTIMATED
Ethnicity
2000
Number
Percent
Gender
Male
23,651
Female
24,817
2011 E
Number
Percent
2016 E
Number
Percent
48.8 %
51.2
23,112
25,351
47.7 %
52.3
23,605
25,846
47.7 %
52.3
8.3 %
15.5
76.3
1,005
2,134
9,192
8.2 %
17.3
74.5
1,002
2,207
9,459
7.9 %
17.4
74.7
50.1 %
49.9
174,278
172,226
50.3 %
49.7
182,654
180,359
50.3 %
49.7
4,145
9,834
63,631
5.3 %
12.7
82.0
4,470
12,148
75,540
4.9 %
13.2
82.0
4,642
12,986
78,486
4.8 %
13.5
81.7
Gender
Male
1,301,693
Female
1,340,363
49.3 %
50.7
1,423,025
1,452,641
49.5 %
50.5
1,474,574
1,505,221
49.5 %
50.5
6.9 %
14.1
79.1
51,280
105,638
554,429
7.2 %
14.9
77.9
53,428
111,106
565,830
7.3 %
15.2
77.5
Marital Status
Single
Single With Children
Married
1,079
2,016
9,937
Gender
Male
145,436
Female
145,004
Marital Status
Single
Married
Marital Status
Single
Married
45,380
92,498
520,281
E: Estimated.
Table A-7
AGE DISTRIBUTION: 2000 CENSUS; 2011 AND 2016 ESTIMATED
2000
Number
Percent
Age Distribution
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 34
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 64
65 - 74
75 +
2011 E
Number
Percent
2016 E
Number
Percent
3,176
3,209
3,170
3,303
3,294
7,180
7,936
6,856
5,059
3,310
1,971
6.6 %
6.6
6.5
6.8
6.8
14.8
16.4
14.1
10.4
6.8
4.1
3,186
3,342
3,318
3,635
3,312
6,319
6,897
8,206
5,489
2,775
1,985
6.6 %
6.9
6.8
7.5
6.8
13.0
14.2
16.9
11.3
5.7
4.1
3,181
3,276
3,096
3,535
3,646
6,009
6,153
8,140
6,532
3,615
2,267
6.4 %
6.6
6.3
7.1
7.4
12.2
12.4
16.5
13.2
7.3
4.6
27,031
5,281
55.8 %
10.9
26,909
4,759
55.5 %
9.8
26,834
5,882
54.3 %
11.9
Under 5
23,534
5-9
24,897
10 - 14
24,832
15 - 19
21,704
20 - 24
16,851
25 - 34
45,255
35 - 44
54,203
45 - 54
38,636
55 - 64
22,028
65 - 74
11,144
75 +
7,321
8.1 %
8.6
8.6
7.5
5.8
15.6
18.7
13.3
7.6
3.8
2.5
26,094
25,591
25,701
24,954
21,968
47,311
52,867
53,508
36,911
19,054
12,529
7.5 %
7.4
7.4
7.2
6.3
13.7
15.3
15.4
10.7
5.5
3.6
27,380
26,223
25,291
25,726
24,643
44,811
48,640
55,285
45,231
25,160
14,610
7.5 %
7.2
7.0
7.1
6.8
12.3
13.4
15.2
12.5
6.9
4.0
160,122
18,465
55.1 %
6.4
190,597
31,583
55.0 %
9.1
193,967
39,770
53.4 %
11.0
188,236
198,690
197,611
183,491
173,732
411,155
469,324
363,592
200,980
130,615
124,630
7.1 %
7.5
7.5
6.9
6.6
15.6
17.8
13.8
7.6
4.9
4.7
207,282
192,307
190,384
193,436
189,862
417,260
416,462
440,983
317,979
164,660
145,051
7.2 %
6.7
6.6
6.7
6.6
14.5
14.5
15.3
11.1
5.7
5.0
214,447
205,438
191,984
190,071
192,262
396,052
407,567
433,762
381,648
216,477
150,087
7.2 %
6.9
6.4
6.4
6.5
13.3
13.7
14.6
12.8
7.3
5.0
1,445,051
255,245
54.7 %
9.7
1,592,684
309,711
55.4 %
10.8
1,619,029
366,564
54.3 %
12.3
25 - 64
65 and Over
25 - 64
65 and Over
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 34
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 64
65 - 74
75 +
25 - 64
65 and Over
E: Estimated.
Table A-8
ETHNICITY: 2000 CENSUS; 2011 AND 2016 ESTIMATED
Ethnicity
Caucasian
African-American
Native American
Other
2000
Number
Percent
2011 E
Number
Percent
2016 E
Number
Percent
43,832
1,113
355
1,515
1,653
90.4 %
2.3
0.7
3.1
3.4
38,747
3,658
478
2,551
3,029
80.0 %
7.5
1.0
5.3
6.3
39,564
3,737
497
2,567
3,088
80.0 %
7.6
1.0
5.2
6.2
1,115
2.3 %
3,056
6.3 %
4,326
8.7 %
Caucasian
275,452
African-American
3,576
Native American
1,582
3,898
Other
5,931
94.8 %
1.2
0.5
1.3
2.0
311,714
11,536
1,922
9,301
12,033
90.0 %
3.3
0.6
2.7
3.5
326,795
12,022
2,014
9,610
12,574
90.0 %
3.3
0.6
2.6
3.5
4,327
1.5 %
11,743
3.4 %
16,340
4.5 %
2,238,117
156,620
20,417
122,239
104,663
84.7 %
5.9
0.8
4.6
4.0
2,267,068
240,876
21,073
186,359
160,290
78.8 %
8.4
0.7
6.5
5.6
2,349,676
249,475
21,737
193,059
165,848
78.9 %
8.4
0.7
6.5
5.6
95,902
3.6 %
179,857
6.3 %
228,964
7.7 %
Hispanic (any race)
Hispanic (any race)
Caucasian
African-American
Native American
Other
Hispanic (any race)
E: Estimated.
Appendix B
RETAIL AND SERVICES SALES POTENTIAL
AND SUPPORTABLE SPACE
Fridley Northstar Rider Retail Supportable Space
B-1
Fridley Northstar Rider Services and Health Care
Supportable Space
B-2
Fridley Northstar Rider Retail Sales Potential and
Supportable Space
B-3
Fridley Northstar Rider Services and Health Care
Sales Potential and Supportable Space
B-4
Table B-1
RETAIL SUPPORTABLE SPACE BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY; 2016 AND 2020
Low
Store Size
Median
2016
2020
High
Food Stores
Grocery Stores
Supermarkets
Convenience Food
Specialty Food Stores
Meat Markets
Fish & Seafood Markets
Fruit & Vegetable Markets
Other Specialty Food Stores
Baked Goods
Confectionery and Nut Stores
All Other Specialty Food Stores
615
604
20
50
18
4
10
13
4
3
5
657
643
20
55
18
4
10
13
4
3
10
31,676
31,245
1,349
1,188
1,130
1,188
1,036
1,112
1,191
702
1,069
52,500
52,419
2,085
2,400
2,215
2,398
1,400
2,291
1,834
1,240
2,200
65,888
69,462
5,323
6,000
18,080
6,000
2,516
9,888
3,285
2,047
8,007
Other Convenience Goods
Hardware
Liquor
Florist
Food/Health Supplement Stores
267
103
131
37
12
285
108
139
42
12
8,280
5,638
1,305
766
1,200
11,700
13,831
2,856
1,600
1,234
23,714
27,743
7,210
5,396
1,968
Food Service
Full-Service Restaurants
Limited Service Restaurants
Cafeterias
Snack & Beverage Places
Frozen Yogurt
Doughnut Shops
Bagel Shops
Coffee Shops
Cookie Shops
Other Snack Shops
Specialized Food Places
375
258
17
77
9
0
18
4
25
0
14
115
400
275
21
80
9
0
18
4
25
0
14
120
2,000
1,335
517
850
902
1,031
744
2,000
881
220
850
4,500
3,000
1,073
1,500
1,148
1,282
1,200
2,388
1,500
602
1,578
N/A
9,775
3,400
10,049
2,495
1,570
1,700
2,153
3,400
2,000
797
2,495
68
72
231
246
1,500
2,933
6,121
223
49
791
240
49
844
8,981
2,348
N/A
95,173
3,533
N/A
135,833
5,028
N/A
60
270
70
290
N/A
N/A
N/A
15,000
N/A
N/A
125
95
130
100
2,232
3,514
6,500
6,944
13,000
12,014
CONVENIENCE GOODS
Drinking Places
Gasoline Svs Stations/Conv.
Gas/Convenience Food Stores
2,243
OTHER RETAIL STORES
Building Materials & Garden Supplies
Building Materials & Supplies Stores
Home Centers
Paint, Glass & Wallpaper
Other Building Materials Dealers
Lawn & Garden Equipment
Outdoor Power Equipment
Retail Nurseries, Lawn & Garden
Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers
Auto Parts & Accessories Stores
Tire Dealers
Table B-1 (continued)
RETAIL SUPPORTABLE SPACE BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY; 2016 AND 2020
Low
Store Size
Median
2016
2020
High
126
46
134
49
57,720
89,641
94,788
148,796
141,986
243,167
79
7
14
84
7
15
90,134
2,726
3,200
151,980
8,000
8,400
217,447
13,788
11,212
SHOPPING GOODS
General Merchandise
Department Stores (Incl. leased depts.)
Discount Stores
Department Stores
Other General Merchandise Stores
Warehouse Clubs and Supercenters
Dollar Stores
Miscellaneous General Merchandise
Apparel & Accessories
Clothing Stores
Mens and Boys
Womens Clothing
Children's & Infant
Family Clothing
Clothing Accessories Stores
Other Clothing Stores
Shoe Stores
Men's
Women's
Children's & Infant
Family Shoe Stores
Athletic Footwear
5
23
9
41
2
6
5
24
9
44
2
7
2,002
2,074
1,490
2,374
918
1,060
4,000
4,200
3,912
8,000
1,400
2,300
5,635
8,740
6,000
28,228
2,001
8,234
0
1
0
13
6
0
1
0
14
6
903
1,309
1,490
2,021
1,535
1,640
2,384
3,912
3,388
3,284
2,186
3,158
6,000
10,234
11,314
Furniture & Home Furnishings
Furniture
Floor Coverings
Window Treatment Stores
All Other Home Furnishings Stores
35
15
2
23
37
16
2
24
3,108
1,229
1,489
2,868
7,927
3,593
4,905
3,570
36,712
7,819
9,934
6,500
Electronics & Appliances Stores
Household Appliance Stores
Radio, TV & Electronics Stores
Computers, Software, Music, & Other Electronics
10
39
6
11
41
6
2,349
1,208
997
4,000
3,406
3,388
7,563
10,451
25,600
Other Shopping Goods
Sporting Goods
General Line Sporting Goods
Specialty Line Sporting Goods
Book Stores & Newsdealers
Stationery Stores and Office Supply
Musical Instrument & Supplies
Jewelry Stores
Hobby, Toy & Game
Camera & Photographic Supply
Gift, Novelty & Souvenirs
Luggage & Leather Goods
Sewing, Needlework & Piece Goods
Pet Stores
Art Dealers
Optical Goods Stores
Pre-Recorded Tapes, Compact Discs
Cosmetics, Beauty Supplies & Perfume
All Other Health & Personal Care
38
15
20
13
7
5
13
12
3
16
1
11
10
2
6
1
4
9
40
16
21
14
8
6
14
13
3
17
2
12
11
2
6
2
5
9
2,238
3,765
1,097
2,428
585
2,432
790
1,604
816
2,369
1,193
2,678
1,847
675
885
1,308
1,102
697
7,500
5,850
2,449
4,542
1,033
7,324
1,450
4,050
2,200
4,422
2,300
12,202
3,200
1,434
1,561
3,426
1,953
1,786
44,116
28,128
4,356
29,974
2,247
26,094
3,410
25,861
5,965
7,015
3,102
19,299
12,398
2,401
4,068
12,753
6,235
3,084
Table B-2
SERVICES AND HEALTH CARE SUPPORTABLE SPACE BY SERVICES CATEGORY; 2016 AND 2020
Category
2016
2020
Low
Store Size
Median
High
Personal Care Services
Barber Shops
Beauty Shops
Nail Salons
Diet & Weight Reducing Services
Other Personal Care Services
5
595
73
47
91
5
653
82
53
103
455
900
773
1,223
703
788
1,400
1,200
1,856
1,488
1,422
3,480
1,807
3,130
4,128
Drycleaning & Laundry Services
Coin-Operated Laundries & Drycleaners
Drycleaning & Laundry Services (except coin-op.)
133
160
133
180
1,222
1,038
2,024
1,608
3,734
2,731
1,090
840
80
364
120
1,200
920
87
400
133
3,059
990
990
1,346
5,050
1,866
1,866
2,122
1,200
7,495
2,550
2,550
2,701
Rental and Leasing
Formalwear and Costume Rental
Video Tape and Disc Rental
Home Health Equipment Rental
11
140
40
14
155
44
763
3,740
1,200
1,046
5,836
1,600
1,773
7,341
3,480
Household Goods Repair
Home & Garden Equipment & Appliance Repair &Maint.
Reupholstery & Furniture Repair
Footwear and Leather Goods Repair
Watch, Clock and Jewelry Repair
Garment Repair and Alteration Services
Computer & Office Machine Repair
46
32
6
6
24
220
51
32
6
6
24
240
Automotive Repair and Maintenance
General Automotive Repair
820
900
2,400
6,200
10,624
2,742
25
1,267
3,000
28
1,386
969
969
1,090
1,652
1,800
1,700
4,008
4,008
3,970
183
70
93
200
77
104
1,090
1,074
1,090
1,600
1,620
1,800
3,970
4,347
3,970
9
157
12
174
1,090
1,090
1,600
1,600
3,970
3,970
14
70
17
75
1,090
1,090
1,800
1,800
3,970
3,970
Other Personal Services
Photographic Services
Photographic Studios
Veteranarian Services
Pet Care
Health Care
Offices of Physicians (except mental health specialists)
Offices of Physicians, Mental Health Specialists
Offices of Dentists
Offices of Other Health Practitioners
Offices of Optometrists
Offices of Mental Health Practitioners (except physicians)
Offices of Physical, Occup, & Speech Therapists & Audiologists
Speech Therapist & Audiologists
Physical & Occupational Therapists
Offices of All Other Health Practitioners
Offices of Podiatrists
Offices of All Other Misc. Health Practitioners
405
680
600
648
900
1,185
1,200
742
1,488
Table B-3
Estimated
Sales
Potential
Category
Sales
Per Sq. Ft.
Supportable
Square Feet
Low
Store Size
Median
High
CONVENIENCE GOODS
Food Stores
Grocery stores
Supermarkets
Convenience food
Specialty food stores
Meat Markets
Baked Goods
Drug & proprietary stores
Hardware
Liquor
Florist
Food Service & Drinking Places
Food Service
Full-service restaurants
Limited service restaurants
Cafeterias
Snack & beverage places
Frozen Yogurt
Doughnut Shops
Bagel Shops
Coffee Shops
Cookie Shops
Other Snack Shops
Specialized food places
Drinking Places
Gas/Convenience food stores
$
283,000
278,000
6,000
10,000
4,000
1,000
2,000
3,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
$
460
460
300
200
225
250
200
225
250
320
200
615
604
20
50
18
4
10
13
4
3
5
31,676
31,245
1,349
1,188
1,130
1,188
1,036
1,112
1,191
702
1,069
52,500
52,419
2,085
2,400
2,215
2,398
1,400
2,291
1,834
1,240
2,200
65,888
69,462
5,323
6,000
18,080
6,000
2,516
9,888
3,285
2,047
8,007
$
123,000
19,000
49,000
7,000
$
460
185
375
190
267
103
131
37
8,280
5,638
1,305
766
11,700
13,831
2,856
1,600
23,714
27,743
7,210
5,396
$
135,000
103,000
4,000
23,000
3,000
4,000
1,000
10,000
5,000
46,000
$
360
400
235
300
325
200
220
275
400
400
360
400
375
258
17
77
9
18
4
25
14
115
2,000
1,335
517
850
902
1,031
744
2,000
881
220
850
4,500
3,000
1,073
1,500
1,148
1,282
1,200
2,388
1,500
602
1,578
N/A
9,775
3,400
10,049
2,495
1,570
1,700
2,153
3,400
2,000
797
2,495
$
17,000
$
250
68
$
324,000
$ 1,400
231
1,500
2,933
6,121
$
78,000
11,000
178,000
$
350
225
225
223
49
791
8,981
2,348
N/A
95,173
3,533
N/A
135,833
5,028
N/A
$
6,000
27,000
$
100
100
60
270
N/A
N/A
N/A
15,000
N/A
N/A
$
25,000
19,000
$
200
200
125
95
2,232
3,514
6,500
6,944
13,000
12,014
2,243
OTHER RETAIL STORES
Building materials & supplies stores
Home centers
Paint, glass & wallpaper
Other building materials dealers
Lawn & garden equipment
Outdoor power equipment
Retail nurseries, lawn & garden
Auto parts, accessories & tires
Auto parts & accessories stores
Tire dealers
Estimated
Sales
Potential
Category
Sales
Per Sq. Ft.
Supportable
Square Feet
Low
Store Size
Median
High
SHOPPING GOODS
General Merchandise
Department stores
Discount stores
Department Stores
Other general merchandise stores
Dollar Stores
Miscellaneous general mdse.
Clothing Stores
Mens and boys
Womens clothing
Children's & infant
Family clothing
Clothing accessories stores
Other clothing stores
Shoe Stores
Men's
Women's
Children's & infant
Family shoe stores
Athletic footwear
Furniture
Floor coverings
Window treatment stores
All other home furnishings stores
$
31,542
10,304
$
250
225
126
46
57,720
89,641
94,788
148,796
141,986
243,167
$
35,435
1,488
3,435
$
450
220
250
79
7
14
90,134
2,726
3,200
151,980
8,000
8,400
217,447
13,788
11,212
$
1,030
4,580
2,118
10,648
630
1,717
$
220
200
240
260
290
265
5
23
9
41
2
6
2,002
2,074
1,490
2,374
918
1,060
4,000
4,200
3,912
8,000
1,400
2,300
5,635
8,740
6,000
28,228
2,001
8,234
$
124
221
57
2,290
973
$
290
270
290
175
175
13
6
903
1,309
1,490
2,021
1,535
1,640
2,384
3,912
3,388
3,284
2,186
3,158
6,000
10,234
11,314
9,045
3,435
343
4,007
$
260
225
210
175
35
15
2
23
3,108
1,229
1,489
2,868
7,927
3,593
4,905
3,570
36,712
7,819
9,934
6,500
2,805
11,564
3,435
$
275
300
580
10
39
6
2,349
1,208
997
4,000
3,406
3,388
7,563
10,451
25,600
7,556
3,091
4,465
2,118
2,805
1,259
4,293
2,061
859
2,347
286
1,088
2,061
343
1,717
327
1,404
2,404
$
200
200
225
160
375
240
325
175
275
150
200
100
200
225
290
230
320
275
38
15
20
13
7
5
13
12
3
16
1
11
10
2
6
1
4
9
2,238
3,765
1,097
2,428
585
2,432
790
1,604
816
2,369
1,193
2,678
1,847
675
885
1,308
1,102
697
7,500
5,850
2,449
4,542
1,033
7,324
1,450
4,050
2,200
4,422
2,300
12,202
3,200
1,434
1,561
3,426
1,953
1,786
44,116
28,128
4,356
29,974
2,247
26,094
3,410
25,861
5,965
7,015
3,102
19,299
12,398
2,401
4,068
12,753
6,235
3,084
$
Household appliance stores
$
Radio, tv & electronics stores
Computers, Software, Music, & other electronics
Sporting goods
General Line Sporting Gds.
Specialty Line Sporting Gds.
Book stores & newsdealers
Jewelry stores
Hobby, toy & game
Camera & photographic supply
Gift, novelty & souvenirs
Luggage & leather goods
Sewing, needlework & piece goods
Pet stores
Art dealers
Optical goods stores
Cosmetics, beauty supplies & perfume
All other health & personal care
$
1
Category
Estimated
Sales
Potential
Sales
Per Sq. Ft.
Supportable
Square Feet
Low
Store Size
Median
High
CONVENIENCE GOODS
Food Stores
Grocery stores
Supermarkets
Convenience food
Specialty food stores
Meat Markets
Baked Goods
$ 302,000
296,000
6,000
11,000
4,000
1,000
2,000
3,000
1,000
1,000
2,000
$
460
460
300
200
225
250
200
225
250
320
200
657
643
20
55
18
4
10
13
4
3
10
31,676
31,245
1,349
1,188
1,130
1,188
1,036
1,112
1,191
702
1,069
52,500
52,419
2,085
2,400
2,215
2,398
1,400
2,291
1,834
1,240
2,200
65,888
69,462
5,323
6,000
18,080
6,000
2,516
9,888
3,285
2,047
8,007
Drug & proprietary stores
Hardware
Liquor
Florist
$ 131,000
20,000
52,000
8,000
$
460
185
375
190
285
108
139
42
8,280
5,638
1,305
766
11,700
13,831
2,856
1,600
23,714
27,743
7,210
5,396
Food Service & Drinking Places
Food Service
Full-service restaurants
Limited service restaurants
Cafeterias
Snack & beverage places
Frozen Yogurt
Doughnut Shops
Bagel Shops
Coffee Shops
Cookie Shops
Other Snack Shops
Specialized food places
$ 144,000
110,000
5,000
24,000
3,000
4,000
1,000
10,000
5,000
48,000
$
360
400
235
300
325
200
220
275
400
400
360
400
400
275
21
80
9
18
4
25
14
120
2,000
1,335
517
850
902
1,031
744
2,000
881
220
850
4,500
3,000
1,073
1,500
1,148
1,282
1,200
2,388
1,500
602
1,578
N/A
9,775
3,400
10,049
2,495
1,570
1,700
2,153
3,400
2,000
797
2,495
18,000
250
72
$ 345,000
$ 1,400
246
1,500
2,933
6,121
$
$
350
225
225
240
49
844
8,981
2,348
N/A
95,173
3,533
N/A
135,833
5,028
N/A
100
100
70
290
N/A
N/A
N/A
15,000
N/A
N/A
200
200
130
100
2,232
3,514
6,500
6,944
13,000
12,014
Drinking Places
Gas/Convenience food stores
2,243
OTHER RETAIL STORES
Building materials & supplies stores
Home centers
Paint, glass & wallpaper
Other building materials dealers
Lawn & garden equipment
Outdoor power equipment
Retail nurseries, lawn & garden
Auto parts, accessories & tires
Auto parts & accessories stores
Tire dealers
84,000
11,000
190,000
7,000
29,000
$
26,000
20,000
$
Category
Estimated
Sales
Potential
Sales
Per Sq. Ft.
Supportable
Square Feet
Low
Store Size
Median
High
SHOPPING GOODS
General Merchandise
Department stores
Discount stores
Department Stores
Other general merchandise stores
Dollar Stores
Miscellaneous general mdse.
Clothing Stores
Mens and boys
Womens clothing
Children's & infant
Family clothing
Clothing accessories stores
Other clothing stores
Shoe Stores
Men's
Women's
Children's & infant
Family shoe stores
Athletic footwear
Furniture
Floor coverings
Window treatment stores
All other home furnishings stores
$
33,588
10,972
$
250
225
134
49
57,720
89,641
94,788
148,796
141,986
243,167
$
37,733
1,585
3,657
$
450
220
250
84
7
15
90,134
2,726
3,200
151,980
8,000
8,400
217,447
13,788
11,212
$
1,097
4,877
2,255
11,338
671
1,829
$
220
200
240
260
290
265
5
24
9
44
2
7
2,002
2,074
1,490
2,374
918
1,060
4,000
4,200
3,912
8,000
1,400
2,300
5,635
8,740
6,000
28,228
2,001
8,234
$
132
235
61
2,438
1,036
$
290
270
290
175
175
14
6
903
1,309
1,490
2,021
1,535
1,640
2,384
3,912
3,388
3,284
2,186
3,158
6,000
10,234
11,314
9,631
3,657
366
4,267
$
260
225
210
175
37
16
2
24
3,108
1,229
1,489
2,868
7,927
3,593
4,905
3,570
36,712
7,819
9,934
6,500
2,987
12,314
3,657
$
275
300
580
11
41
6
2,349
1,208
997
4,000
3,406
3,388
7,563
10,451
25,600
8,047
3,292
4,755
2,256
2,987
1,341
4,572
2,194
914
2,499
305
1,158
2,194
366
1,829
348
1,495
2,561
$
200
200
225
160
375
240
325
175
275
150
200
100
200
225
290
230
320
275
40
16
21
14
8
6
14
13
3
17
2
12
11
2
6
2
5
9
2,238
3,765
1,097
2,428
585
2,432
790
1,604
816
2,369
1,193
2,678
1,847
675
885
1,308
1,102
697
7,500
5,850
2,449
4,542
1,033
7,324
1,450
4,050
2,200
4,422
2,300
12,202
3,200
1,434
1,561
3,426
1,953
1,786
44,116
28,128
4,356
29,974
2,247
26,094
3,410
25,861
5,965
7,015
3,102
19,299
12,398
2,401
4,068
12,753
6,235
3,084
$
Household appliance stores
$
Radio, tv & electronics stores
Computers, Software, Music, & other electronics
Sporting goods
General Line Sporting Gds.
Specialty Line Sporting Gds.
Book stores & newsdealers
Jewelry stores
Hobby, toy & game
Camera & photographic supply
Gift, novelty & souvenirs
Luggage & leather goods
Sewing, needlework & piece goods
Pet stores
Art dealers
Optical goods stores
Cosmetics, beauty supplies & perfume
All other health & personal care
$
1
Table B-4
SERVICES AND HEALTH CARE SALES POTENTIAL AND SUPPORTABLE SPACE BY SERVICES CATEGORY; 2016
Estimated
Sales
Potential
Category
Barber Shops
Beauty Shops
Nail Salons
Drycleaning & Laundry Service
Pet Care
Rental and Leasing
Automotive Repair and Maintenanc
Health Care
Offices of Dentists
Sales
Per Sq. Ft.
Supportable
Square Feet
Low
Store Size
Median
High
$
30,000
2,000
2,000
4,000
$
200
190
110
150
175
158
18
13
23
455
900
773
1,223
703
788
1,400
1,200
1,856
1,488
1,422
3,480
1,807
3,130
4,128
$
2,000
6,000
$
60
150
33
40
1,222
1,038
2,024
1,608
3,734
2,731
$
29,000
61,000
6,000
22,000
2,000
$
100
275
275
225
75
290
222
22
98
27
3,059
990
990
1,346
5,050
1,866
1,866
2,122
1,200
7,495
2,550
2,550
2,701
$
1,000
7,000
3,000
$
365
200
250
3
35
12
763
3,740
1,200
1,046
5,836
1,600
1,773
7,341
3,480
$
2,000
1,000
1,000
9,000
$
175
155
155
155
125
150
11
6
8
60
$
43,000
$
200
215
2,400
6,200
10,624
$
259,000
2,000
116,000
$
357
357
345
725
6
336
969
969
1,090
1,652
1,800
1,700
4,008
4,008
3,970
17,000
8,000
9,000
345
415
345
49
19
26
1,090
1,074
1,090
1,600
1,620
1,800
3,970
4,347
3,970
1,000
14,000
345
345
3
41
1,090
1,090
1,600
1,600
3,970
3,970
1,000
6,000
357
345
3
17
1,090
1,090
1,800
1,800
3,970
3,970
405
680
600
648
900
1,185
1,200
742
1,488
SERVICES AND HEALTH CARE SALES POTENTIAL AND SUPPORTABLE SPACE BY SERVICES CATEGORY; 2020
Estimated
Sales
Potential
Category
Barber Shops
Beauty Shops
Nail Salons
Drycleaning & Laundry Services
Pet Care
Rental and Leasing
Automotive Repair and Maintenance
Health Care
Offices of Dentists
Sales
Per Sq. Ft.
Supportable
Square Feet
Low
Store Size
Median
High
$
32,000
2,000
2,000
5,000
$
200
190
110
150
175
168
18
13
29
455
900
773
1,223
703
788
1,400
1,200
1,856
1,488
1,422
3,480
1,807
3,130
4,128
$
2,000
7,000
$
60
150
33
47
1,222
1,038
2,024
1,608
3,734
2,731
$
31,000
65,000
6,000
23,000
3,000
$
100
275
275
225
75
310
236
22
102
40
3,059
990
990
1,346
5,050
1,866
1,866
2,122
1,200
7,495
2,550
2,550
2,701
$
1,000
8,000
3,000
$
365
200
250
3
40
12
763
3,740
1,200
1,046
5,836
1,600
1,773
7,341
3,480
$
2,000
1,000
1,000
9,000
$
175
155
155
155
125
150
11
6
8
60
$
46,000
$
200
230
2,400
6,200
10,624
$
275,000
3,000
123,000
$
357
357
345
770
8
357
969
969
1,090
1,652
1,800
1,700
4,008
4,008
3,970
$
18,000
8,000
9,000
$
345
415
345
52
19
26
1,090
1,074
1,090
1,600
1,620
1,800
3,970
4,347
3,970
$
1,000
15,000
$
345
345
3
43
1,090
1,090
1,600
1,600
3,970
3,970
$
1,000
7,000
$
357
345
3
20
1,090
1,090
1,800
1,800
3,970
3,970
405
680
600
648
900
1,185
1,200
742
1,488

fridley station tod market analysis

Transcription

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