EVOLUTION OF FEMALE 25-45 BC IN LAST 10 YEARS

EVOLUTION OF FEMALE 25-45 BC
IN LAST 10 YEARS
April 2015
Size of Target group is increasing
2004
Universe W 25-45 middle income+:
9,967,000
2014
Universe W 25-45 middle income+:
11,327,000
2024
Universe W 25-45 middle income+:
Source: M’Index, Russia 100+ and Havas estimation
12,647,000
Now 25-35 is bigger, in 10 years they will be 35-45
Age and gender structureof population at the beginning of 2014
Source: Federal State Statistics Service, 2014
Finance: situation is improving (2014 vs 2004)
Personal income in 2004 – 5 445 rub
in 2014 – 26 880 rub
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Have no financial difficulties
Have enough money for everything except of the real estate
Have enough money for h/h equipment
Enough for food and clothes but not for larger h/h equipment
Enough money for food but not for clothes
Hardly have money for food
2004
2014
Source: Synovate Comcon, 2004, 2014, W 25-45
45%
Tendency to workaholism; the majority of TA have a higher
education
0%
10%
20%
30%
Work 30 hours a week or more
Work less than 30 hours a week
Don't work
Mental work
Physical labour
Qualified specialist with higher education
Employee without higher education
Technical and service staff
Head of subdivision (shop, department, shift, etc.)
Skilled worker, foreman
Deputy head, chief specialist
Head (Director, President)
Auxiliary worker
Other
Source: Synovate Comcon, 2004, 2014, W 25-45 BC
2004
2014
40%
50%
60%
70%
Significant growth of Tourism. People travel mostly to the
seaside resorts
Went abroad (for the last 12 months)
15%
14%
11%
10% 10%
7%
4%
16%
Resorts
48%
12%
11%
8%
3%
Independent trips
5%
2014
Excursions,
informational trips
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Synovate Comcon, 2004, 2014, W 25-45 BC
2004
25%
41%
23%
Share of women who drive a car is constantly growing
Russia
Moscow
35%
35%
30%
1
30%
30%
25%
2
25%
20%
20%
3
20%
15%
15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
1
2
3
8%
5%
Source: Synovate Comcon, 2004-2014, W 25-45 BC
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
0%
2004
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
0%
Share of single women has grown; couples prefer commonlaw marriage
0%
2%
4%
Not married but live together
Single
Divorced
Widowed
Duration of living together
Less than a year
1-4 years
5-9 years
10-15 years
16-20 years
More than 20 years
Hard to answer
Source: Synovate Comcon, 2004, 2014, W 25-45 BC
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
2004
2014
Share of women with child is increasing
59%
Have children
Have 1 child till 16 y.o.
41%
17%
20%
Have 2 children till 16 y.o.
Have children 0-2 y.o.
Have children 3-6 y.o.
Have children 7-11 y.o.
Source: Synovate Comcon, 2004,2014, W 25-45 BC
46%
10%
16%
16%
21%
23%
24%
2004
2014
75%
W 25-29 leave behind W 20-24 by number of births
Average number of births per 1000 women by age
120
108
94
100
2004
90
80
2013
76
80
60
46
40
37
28 27
18
20
3
7
0.1 0.3
0
< 20
20-24
25-29
Source: Federal State Statistics Service, 2004, 2013
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
After Maternity capital birthrate increased
Number of children per 1 woman
2.0
Maternity
capital
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0.0
Source: Federal State Statistics Service, 1990-2013
Moms became older and gap between children are
decreasing
32.0
7.0
Maternity
capital
Mean age at second birth
30.0
6.5
29.5
6.0
Difference
Moms ages
28.0
5.5
4.9
26.9
5.0
4.4
26.0 4.2
25.2
24.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
22.7
3.0
22.0
2.5
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
2.0
1990
20.0
Source: Human fertility database, 1990-2010; «Население России 2012» (расчеты Захарова С.В. 2011-2013)
Age difference between birth
Mean age at firt birth
But less children are expected to born from 2017
Total fertility rate
2.5
Low variant
Medium variant
High variant
Maternity
capital
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.0
Less women were born
Less women will become
moms
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
0.5
+25
years
Source: Federal State Statistics Service, 1990-2013; projected data 2015-2050
Society tends to equalize women and men in rights
22%
Y 2013
57%
28%
Y 2007
53%
0
10
20
30
Ubnormal
40
50
60
Normal
Question: Sometimes wife earns more money than her husband. Some people think that it is
ubnormal, other – that it is quite natural. Which of the statements do you agree?
Source: FOM, All 18+ 2007, 2013 http://fom.ru/Rabota-i-dom/11024
Less borders between pure “women” and pure “men” duties
83
90
% of respondents
80
73
70
70
60
50
40
30
26
22
14
20
10
3
3
2
2
2007
2013
1
1
0
2003
Both equally
Husband
Wife
Find it difficult to answer
Question: Who should participate in housekeeping?
Source: FOM, All 18+, 2003-2013 http://fom.ru/Rabota-i-dom/11024
Healthy lifestyle became popular
In consumption
In attitude
In self-estimation
People are more looking
after their health, nutrition
and physical activity
Self-estimation: people tend to estimate their nutrition as
more healthy
0.7
I consider my food to be very healthy
0.6
61%
56%
48%
0.5
41%
0.4
Now I am eating more healthy food than I have
in the past
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: Synovate Comcon, RusIndex, 2004 – H1’2014
2010
2011
2012
2013 H1'2014
Attitude: growing interest in sport, growing sport’s
accessories
15%
I'm going in for sport or doing exercises at least once a week
(right axis)
40%
13%
35%
11%
30%
9%
7%
25%
Work out at home
Swimming
5%
20%
Running
3%
Cycling
15%
1%
-1%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Source: Synovate Comcon, RusIndex, 2004 – 2013
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
10%
New offers on market: farm products
For the most important products characteristic people ready
to pay more
97%
Полностью натуральный
%, meaning it is important
81%
95%
Без ГМО
%, ready to pay more
74%
95%
Без искусственных красителей
72%
94%
Без искусственных ароматизаторов
71%
92%
Обогащен кальцием
65%
88%
С низким содержанием соли
47%
86%
С низким содержанием сахара/без сахара
49%
85%
Без глютена
50%
84%
Низкая жирность
50%
83%
Из цельного зерна
51%
82%
Низкая калорийность
48%
81%
С высоким содержанием протеина
41%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Source: http://www.nielsen.com/ru/ru/insights/reports/2014/we-are-what-we-eat-russia-2015.html
But 85% of Russian consumers say that natural
grocery goods are too expensive*
Source: http://www.nielsen.com/ru/ru/insights/news/2015/healthy-eating-new-opportunity-for-growth.html
After Embargo: Russian and Belorussian products
became more popular
Country of manufacture of hard and soft cheeses:
Embargo-August
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
Russia
Belorussia
Holland
Germany
Finland
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
10-1 10-2 10-3 10-4 11-1 11-2 11-3 11-4 12-1 12-2 12-3 12-4 13-1 13-2 13-3 13-4 14-1 14-2 14-3 14-4
Source: Synovate Comcon, RusIndex, 2010– 2014, All 18+ Consumers
60% said that Private Label is a good variant for those who
need to economize, but not in all categories
Categories, where people are ready to pay more
cheese
41%
milk
39%
shampoo
37%
tooth paste
36%
meat/sea food
36%
baby food
27%
corn-flakes/dressing
6%
chewing gum
5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Source: Nielsen, URL: <http://www.nielsen.com/ru/ru/press-room/2014/russian-consumers-are-hesitant-in-their-attitude-to-privatelabel.html>
Summary
• Life is getting better – incomes are growing, financial situation is improving, in increasing
frequency women earn more money than a men
• Share of single women is increasing
• Work-life balance is becoming more important than career
• There are less borders between “women” and “men” rights and duties
• Healthy trend is increasing: People are ready to pay more for nature products, but they
are thinking that prices are too high now
• Embargo from 2014: Consumption of Russian and Belorussian product increased
MEDIA CONSUMPTION
Duration of contact with Internet rapidly grows,
TV is stable, Press and radio decline
200
180
160
2h 59m
2h 57m
2h 51m
TV
Min per day
140
Internet
120
100
1h 38m
1h 26
1h 25
80
1h 7m
60
40
20
0
1h 14
29m
Press
17m
2008
Radio
10m
2009
2010
2011
6m
2012
Source: Synovate Comcon, RusIndex, 2000-2014, W 25-45 income middle or +
2013
2014
Women more trust Internet now,
but TV is still the most trustful media
Trust media:
50%
TV
45%
40%
Internet
35%
30%
Magazines
25%
20%
15%
Newspapers
10%
5%
Radio stations
0%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: Synovate Comcon, RusIndex, 2004-2014, W 25-45 income middle or +
2013
2014
Before
Now
TV had a
central place in
a room
TV was a
reason to
argue (what to
watch)
Each family
member can
watch their own
favorite things
People paid
more attention
to TV info
Watching TV
in parallel
with other
activities
Number of TV sets in one HH increased
Av = 1.6
Av = 2.1
60%
1
50%
2
3
4
5
TV Sets in household
40%
30%
20%
0%
H1'06
H2'06
H1'07
H2'07
H1'08
H2'08
H1'09
H2'09
H1'10
H2'10
H1'11
H2'11
H1'12
H2'12
H1'13
H2'13
H1'14
H2'14
10%
Source: TNS Media Research, M'Index Russia, 2006-2014, All 16+
TV series became more differentiated by interest
(men – women)
Top TV serials 2004
Top TV serials 2014
Diversant
Diversant
Chernye koshki
Idealny brak
SHtrafbat
I love you
Ladoga
Durnaya krov
Sarmat
Tayny sledstviya - 3
Shaman - 2
Ladoga
Moya granitsa
Clone
Mstitel
Ekaterina
Ulitsy razbitykh fonarey V
Ulitsy razbitykh fonarey IV
Getery mayora Sokolova
Uyti, chtoby vernutsya
Ulitsy razbitykh fonarey IV
Moskovskaya saga
Mentovskie voyny-6
Liniya Marty
Tayny sledstviya - 3
Moya granitsa
Mentovskie voyny-7
Ulybka peresmeshnika
Zvezdochet
Ulitsy razbitykh fonarey V
Legavy 2
Sestra moya, Lyubov
Antikiller-2
Zemlya lyubvi, zemlya nadezhdy
Telokhranitel
Dom s liliyami
Opera.
Khroniki uboynogo otdela
SHtrafbat
Bratany-4
Chernye koshki
Source: TNS Media Research, TV Index, 2004, 2014, Av.TVR, M16+,W 16+
The variety of TV channels is growing
Num. of channels weekly Reached
Apr
Apr
Source: TNS TV Index, Russia; Synovate ComCon, RusIndex, All 10+
Cab/SAT TV Penetration
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
40%
2009
45%
47%
2010
2011
51%
2012
56%
56%
2013
2014
More National channels are available:
TOPs lose their share
2014
2004
9%
PERVY KANAL
6%
29%
8%
ROSSIYA
20%
32%
NTV
CTC
13%
12%
THT
REN-TV
14%
22%
Others
4 main channels
= 78%
Source: TNS Media Research, TV Index, Mar 2004/ Mar 2014 TA: W 25-45 BC
5%
10%
13%
9%
4 main channels
= 50%
Dly Reach%
Thematic TV grows among all people especially elder
audience (45-60 y.o.)
2011
2014
+57%
60%
50%
+49%
40%
40%
30%
+34%
27%
48%
37%
28%
30%
20%
10%
0%
All 18+
Source: TNS Media Research, TV Index, 2011,2014
All 25-45
All 45-60
TOP thematic channels: cinema and informational
2008
0
TV 1000
Discovery Channel
Рбк Тв
Tv 1000 Русское Кино
Ru.Tv
Animal Planet
Jetix
Мир
Детский Мир
Eurosport
Теленяня
Tv Xxi
Тдк
Дом Кино
National Geographic Channel
Русский Иллюзион
Russian Music Box
Viasat Explore
Viasat History
Ретро
1
Daily Reach, %
2
3
4
5
6
TV 1000 Русское Кино
Ru.TV
TV 1000
Отр
Дом Кино
Рбк Тв
Tlc
Русский Роман
Моя Планета
Discovery Channel
Мир
Animal Planet
Nickelodeon
Sony Entertainment Television
TV 1000 Action
Universal Channel
Life News
Tiji
National Geographic Channel
Тнт-Comedy
Source: TNS Media Research, TV Index Plus, 2008, 2014, W 25-45 BC, Av.Reach%
2014
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Among all the channels people choose only several
preferred
How many TV channels you…
70
60
…can watch at home
50
… really watch from time to time
40
63
30
20
35
23
10
10
9
0
Aug 2009
Source: АЦВИ
8
Oct 2010
10
Sep 2011
12
Nov 2014
Daily Reach, %
The reach of National TV is slightly declining
90%
80%
80%
74%
71%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Mar 2004
Mar 2014
Mar 2015
Source: TNS Media Research, TV Index, Mar 2004/ Mar 2014, Oct2004/Oct2014 TA: W 25-45 income middle
or +, Daily Reach%
Despite lower reach Cable TV highly
affinitive for TA
90
Affinity
70
200
60
150
50
40
100
30
20
50
10
0
Source: TNS Media Research, TV Index, TV Index Plus , Russia, Jan-Mar’15 / Dec’14-Feb’15 ; TA W 25-45 income middle of +, Affinity calculated vs buying audience
0
Affinity
Weekly Reach %
80
250
Weekly Reach%
Internet doesn’t replace TV anymore, people
consume both TV and Internet
I watch TV less since the time I began to use the Internet
60%
52%
50%
40%
50%
33%
Women replaced TV with Internet
30%
20%
Less women
abandon TV in
advantage of
Internet
10%
0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: Synovate Comcon, RusIndex, 2008-2014, Monthly Internet users W 25-45 income middle or +
Internet is a new source for traditional Media
0%
Watching TV via the
Internet
Read online versions of
press issues
Listening to the radio via
the Internet
10%
20%
30%
40%
31%
27%
22%
Source: Synovate Comcon, RusIndex, Q4’2014, W 25-45 income middle or +
Purchase online is growing
Russia
Moscow
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2010
2011
2012
Source: Synovate Comcon, RusIndex, 2010-2014, W 25-45 BC
2013
2014
Children goods on the top online purchase
Top 5 categories of online purchase
50%
Russia
Moscow
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Children's
goods
Clothes, shoes, Takeaway from
Tickets to
accessories
cafes,
entertainment
restaurants
events
(pizza, sushi,
etc.)
Source: Synovate Comcon, RusIndex, 2014, Buy online (for 3 months) ,W 25-45 BC
Books
Digital is used on wide range of devices
Points of access (last 3 month)
Smartphone
85%
Laptop
83%
PC
• Only 4% use only 1 device
• 55% use 3-4 devices in average
79%
Tablet PC
61%
Smart TV
29%
Other
19%
0%
50%
100%
Source: Synovate Comcon, OnLife, H2’2014, W 25-45 income middle or +
Before
Now
Active press
consumption
Everywhere,
everyday…
Mobile versions
are more
convenient
iPad and
Online versions
replace paper
Newspapers: not an everyday source of information any
more
100%
7%
9%
90%
11%
13%
16%
17%
20%
22%
22%
24%
27%
80%
70%
Less than once a month
60%
Once a month
50%
2-3 times a month
40%
Once a week
30%
2-3 times a week
Every day, almost every day
20%
10%
26%
25%
23%
21%
19%
17%
16%
15%
16%
15%
15%
0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Synovate Comcon, RusIndex, 2004-2014, All 16+, newspapers readers
Print media actively use mobile versions
-
400
Za rulem
•
76% of mobile versions of magazines
are free with paid subscription
•
24% are totally free
695
Cosmopolitan
616
527
Men's Health
465
National Geographic
464
Popular Mechanic
455
Sport Express
363
Elle
331
Maxim
268
Source: TNS, Jan-Apr’14
1,200
1,051
RBC
Rossiyskaya gazeta
800
= Thousands
downloads / month
Most often people listen to radio in car
100%
90%
80%
70%
21%
19%
60%
22%
20%
23%
28%
34%
36%
36%
40%
43%
20%
20%
21%
50%
20%
21%
21%
40%
30%
68%
64%
48%
50%
19%
19%
21%
62%
20%
In a car
56%
52%
48%
47%
43%
At work
40%
35%
32%
2012
2013
2014
10%
0%
2004
2005
2006
Elsewhere
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: Synovate Comcon, RusIndex, 2000-2014, All 16+, radio listeners
At home
Radio via up-to-day devices is preferred among younger
people. Radio set is mostly for 45+
% of audience
W 25-44 income middle or+
All 45-60
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Car radio
Radio set
Source: TNS Media Research, Radio Index Russia, Jul-Dec’2014
Computer / Laptop
Cell phone / Smartphone
Financial recession
and its influence on
Consumers
Jan 2015 happened decrease of financial status already is
higher vs 2009. And, in contrast to 2009, most of people can’t
forecast, what will happen…
“Did your financial status increased or
decreased during recent 2-3 months?”
increase
Didn’t change signific
Source: http://bd.fom.ru/pdf/d02dmp15.pdf
decrease
Hard to answer
“Will your financial status increase or
decrease during the following year?”
increase
Won’t change signific
decrease
Hard to answer
Currently biggest trouble for consumers is inflation and salaries, but
not employment yet. However, this is just a recession beginning –
everything may change
Recession negative impact, %
Dynamics vs. other periods (p.p.)
(for recent month)
“What of the following changes did you and your family
personally touched during the recent months”?
Prices increase
48
Salary and bonuses reduce
35
29
26
24
22
Orders, sales, clients quant reduce
Troubles with deposits, loans
Troubles with employment
Corporative budgets reduce
Products deficit
State support
No Changes
5
4
Source: Synovate Comcon, Crisis monitoring report, Jan-III-2015
Vs. Q1’09
91
Vs. Q4’14
+12
-17
-10
-5
-4
-23
+5
+2
0
+9
-1
+3
+5
+13
=
0
-2
-2
People tend to decrease frequency or select value for money products in
low-costs categories like FMCG, but mostly don’t reject to purchase
products. While first to get out are out-of-home meals and
entertainment
Changes in FMCG categories during the last months
Out-of-home meals
Cinema
Entertainment
Beer
Spirits
Confectionary
Food
Cosmetics
Non-alcohol beverages
Perfumery
HH chemistry
Goods for kids
Motor gas
Remedies
Hygiene means
Tea, coffee
Mobile services
Internet
Refuse
No changes
Refuse to purchase
Volumes decrease / cheaper choice
Habits didn’t change
Source: ADV Brand Heat Tracking, Initiative http://www.slideshare.net/ElenaOrobtsova/consumer-trends-crisis-2014-rus ; dates of survey: 8-14 Dec 2014
However in “big investment” categories people tend to
postpone purchases or even reject. Less then 40% didn’t
change their intentions
Changes in long-term categories during the last months
Refuse
Car
Real Estate
Big HH appliances
Furniture
Car tires
Travelling
Flat/house repair
HH electronics
No changes
Cell phone
PC (laptop, tablet)
Small HH appliances
Clothes
Refuse to purchase
Postponed a purchase for more than half of year
Cheaper choice
Habits didn’t change
Source: ADV Brand Heat Tracking, Initiative http://www.slideshare.net/ElenaOrobtsova/consumer-trends-crisis-2014-rus ; dates of survey: 8-14 Dec 2014