StormGeo-Control in a changing environment

StormGeo-Control in a changing environment

Onshore and Offshore Winds
Jostein Mælan, Sales and Marketing Director
StormGeo Group
History & facts
-Founded in 1997, official start in 1998
- Founded by meteorologist Siri Kalvig and TV 2
- Worldwide operations in the Renewables, Offshore and Media industries
- Headquarters in Bergen, Norway
- Offices in Norway, Sweden, Denmark, UK and US
- Owned by:
- IDEKAPITAL AS:
- TV 2 Invest AS:
- Orkan Invest AS
- Management/Employees:
42.5 %
42.5 %
9.0 %
6.0 %
- Board and CEO
- Erik Langaker, Axel Dahl, Siri M Kalvig, Endre Solem
- CEO Kent Zehetner
- 76 employees and offices in Norway, UK, US, Sweden and Denmark
- The group includes StormGeo AS, StormGeo AB, StormGeo Ltd
- Turnover 2010 NOK 85 million (15 M USD)
- Compounded y-o-y growth in excess of 30 % since 2004
- Invested MNOK 100 in R&D over P&L since inception
- The leading weather services provider in Scandinavia
and the North Sea region
Oil and Gas
- MetOcean forecasts
- Offshore Consultancy
- UK observation course
- StormDrift/Oil spill
- Offshore Statistics
- Aviation
- Criteria management
- Extreme Value Analysis
Renewables
- Onshore Wind Power
- Offshore Wind Power
- Virtual Wind Measurement
- Site Calibration
- Hydro Power
- Trading
- Consultancy
- Extreme Value Analysis
Media
- Internet Weather Portals
- TV Weather graphics
- Mobile services
- Newspaper graphics
- Weather On Demand
Offices
Services
Industries
Industries and services
Bergen
Stavanger
Oslo
Aberdeen
Copenhagen
Stockholm
Renewables
Offshore
Media
Key Events
Selected customers
Industries
Selected customers
• First customer
• BP
• ExxonMobil Norway
• Statoil ASA
• Hydro AS
• Shell Europe
• Brazil & Oilspill
1998
2000
2005
2005
2006
2009
2010
• First customer
• First trading service
• First Hydro service
• 90 % wind market
• First offshore turbine
• Dogger Bank
• Bankable
• Inst Cap 1,5GW
1998
1999
2000
2008
2008
2009
2010
2010
• First customer
• WOD
• Weather Channel
•Sky Italy 24/7
• NTV MSNBC
• Aftonbladet & SVT
• Storm.no
1998
2000
2004
2005
2006
2008
2009
The fundamental working tool:
Numerical atmosph/wave prediction models
External Data
Observations
StormGeo State of the art inhouse modelling
ARPS
Local
Regional
Models
Models
Global
Models
SWAN 9 km
WRF 9 km
10m -1 km –
100 m
1-9 km
16-100 km
SWAN 3 km
WRF 3 km
SAM
SWAN 1 km
WRF 1 km
ARPS 75m
Global
Models
16-100 km
ECMWF products – global 0.125 deg resolution
GFS model – global 0.5 deg resolution
European Centre for Medium Weather Forecasting
Coupled Model System Air/Sea.
Proven to have very high quality!
Used as boundary conditions for regional and local scale
StormGeo models.
Local scale numerical modelling is strongly dependent
on Initial Values!
The fundamental working tool:
Numerical weather prediction models
Observations are crucial!
Observation data count for one 12h 4D-Var cycle at
ECMWF
0900-2100UTC 3 March 2008
Assimilated
Screened
• Synop:
450,000
0.3%
• Synop:
• Aircraft:
434,000
0.3%
• Aircraft:
• Dribu:
24,000
0.02%
• Temp:
153,000
64,000
0.7%
215,000
2.4%
• Dribu:
7,000
0.1%
0.1%
• Temp:
76,000
0.8%
86,000
0.1%
• Pilot:
39,000
0.4%
2,535,000
1.6%
• AMV’s:
125,000
1.4%
• Radiance data: 150,663,000
96.9%
• Radiance data: 8,207,000
91.0%
• Pilot:
• AMV’s:
• Scat:
835,000
0.5%
• Scat:
149,000
1.7%
•GPS radio occult.
271,000
0.2%
•GPS radio occult. 137,000
1.5%
TOTAL:
155,448,000 100.00%
99% of screened data is from satellites
TOTAL:
9,018,000
100.00%
96% of assimilated data is from satellites
Source: http://www.ecmwf.int
Forecasting and planning of wind farms
•
Wind Resource Mapping/screening
Net Production
P99 P90 P75 P50
233 265 279 298
•
Wind Energy Forecasting
Planning, screening, Power assessment,
Power estimates
Wind Energy Studies
Global
observations
Global models
Regional
model
ECMWF
16km
WRF 100m1km
Model: Weather Research and Forecast Model
– WRF
Boundary: European Center for Medium Range
Weather Forecasts – ECMWF
Resolution: 9km- 3km - 1km – 100 m
Advanced Model Physics and treatment of
LANDUSE and surface characteristics
Many short model runs
9 km
3 km
1 km
Virtual Wind Measurements –
hourly per turbine, wind distribution
Large variance within a wind park
ERA INTERIM – for location climatology
New areas handled by StormGEO
Height corrections – Complex terrain
•
Due to small scale terrain effects
not catched by the 1 km model.
•
Input:
– Height of the model surface
– Surrounding ’real’ terrain
– The exact altitude at the
specified location
•
This gives much more accurate
wind speed estimates.
•
The correction depends on model
setup and type of terrain.
•
Still - watch out for non linear
phenomenas like recirculation and
near extremely steep edges in the
terrain…
Model
StormGeo wind farm planning tool /screening
Data extractor, Virtual Wind Measurements
WRF Hindcasts
Long term climate
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
Net production
P99 P90 P75 P50
240 265 279 298
1994
1999
2004
1995
2000
2005
1996
1997
2001
2002
2006
2007
1998
2003
2008
Annual Energy Production
Park layout
Park layout
Wake Loss
WindSight planner – Front page
Operational needs - power forecasting,
Met ocean forecasts
Offshore Wind Web portal 24/7
•
Wind Farm Forecaster
(on- and offshore)
http://customers.storm.no
username xxx
Password: yyy
Experience in offshore winds – selected projects
Thanet
Sheringham Shoal / Scira
Hywind
Havsul
London Array
Eneco NL
Dogger bank
Power Production forecasting
WRF model 1-9km
Statistical layers
’Perfect’ hourly power forecasts
Uncertainty
Coupling of NWP to CFD/OpenFoam
INTPOW Pavilion
Thank you for listening
Jostein Mælan, [email protected]