retail analysis - American Place

Transcription

RETAIL
ANALYSIS
Trade Area, Tenant Targeting
&
Sales Potential Productivity Analysis
American Place
Indianapolis, Indiana
Indianapolis, IN MSA
January 2016
Prepared for:
Full House Resorts, Inc.
Report Prepared by:
Gerney REsearch Group LLC
Strategic Geographic + Real Estate Advisory
(570) 546 – 1080
400 Hartman Road
Muncy, PA 17756
This report has been prepared for informational purposes only. Data provided are for
general reference purposes and are based on various assumptions relating to the general
economy, competition and other factors beyond the authors control and, therefore are
subject to material verification.
American Place Trade Area & Sales Potential Analysis
Table of Contents
I. Executive Summary ......................................................................................................... 2
II. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 12
III. Market Overview ......................................................................................................... 13
3.1 Population ................................................................................................................ 13
3.2 Single-Family Residential Building Permit Activity............................................... 15
3.3 Employment............................................................................................................. 18
3.4 Indianapolis Retail Landscape ................................................................................. 19
3.5 Indianapolis Fashion Retail Landscape ................................................................... 21
3.6 Fashion Department Store Competition .................................................................. 24
IV. Analog Market Analysis .............................................................................................. 26
4.1 Analog Market Demographics................................................................................. 26
4.2 Fashion Shopping Center Space Analysis ............................................................... 28
4.3 Fashion Department Store Space Analysis .............................................................. 29
4.4 Fashion-Oriented Retail Content ............................................................................. 29
V. American Place: Trade Area and Sales Potential ......................................................... 35
5.1 Trade Area ............................................................................................................... 35
5.2 Sales Potential.......................................................................................................... 39
5.3 Casino-Related Retail Center Case Studies……………………………………….47
Appendix: Introduction to Fashion/Lifestyle Retail Classification ............................ 50
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I. Executive Summary
v The purpose of this report is to assess the potential of the retail component of
American Place on the near west side of the Indianapolis, IN metropolitan area.
v The proposed location would be a new development project at the Sam Jones
Expressway exit & I-465 on the west side of Indianapolis, IN.
v American Place is planned to include a boutique hotel, casino, theater, multiscreen cinema, lifestyle-type retail and residential components.
v Indianapolis is the capital of the state of Indiana and is centrally located within the
state with a population approaching 2.0 million. This makes it the largest
metropolitan area in the state and on par with other regional metropolitan areas
like Cincinnati, Cleveland and Columbus, Ohio.
v Within Indianapolis, fashion/lifestyle retailing is sectioned off into 6 submarkets:
o North – This is the strongest submarket, covering the north side of Marion
County and Hamilton County.
§ There are four major fashion/lifestyle shopping centers: Fashion
Mall at Keystone (Nordstrom & Saks Fifth Avenue), Castleton
Square (Macy’s & Von Maur), Clay Terrace, and Hamilton Town
Center.
§ There are also five fashion department stores within this
geographic area – Saks Fifth Avenue, Nordstrom, Von Maur, and
two Macy’s.
o South – With Greenwood Park Mall straddling the Marion-Johnson
County line, this is the second strongest submarket.
§ The Greenwood Park Mall (Macy’s & Von Maur and Macy’s).
o West – with the decline of the Lafayette Square, The Shops at Perry
Crossing has risen as the only quasi-fashion center on the west side of the
Indianapolis region. This is an open-air lifestyle center that offers no
regional access and is not well-leased.
o East – like Lafayette Square on the west side, Washington Square on the
east side of Indianapolis has also fallen dramatically and is really more of
a power center at this point.
o Downtown Indianapolis – offers a rather strong downtown business
district with a major urban mall in Circle Centre (Carson’s). Already
located Downtown are such well-known eating & drinking establishments
as: Bourbon Street Distillery, Buca di Beppo, Capital Grill, Hard Rock
Café, Harry & Izzy’s, Morton’s Steakhouse, Prime 47, Rock bottom
Brewery, St. Elmo’s Steakhouse and Weber Grill & Bar.
o Anderson – The Mounds Mall (Carson’s) offers a very weak small-tenant
line-up and offers no real competition.
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v Comparatively, when examined against other regional markets as St. Louis,
Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Kansas City, Columbus, Nashville, Milwaukee,
Louisville and Hartford the Indianapolis market is just about the norm of these
others in terms of population, income (per capita, average household, and median
household), and affluent target households.
v When one examines the specific retailers that might be attracted to either enter the
Indianapolis market, or add an additional units to their existing store location
network, a rather impressive list is generated. In order to be placed on this list, a
retailer had to either (a) be present in at least two of the three analog markets and
not yet in Indianapolis, or, (b) have an existing unit within the subject MSA but
also indicate the potential for the addition of another metro-wide unit.
Highest Probability Better-Quality Retail Target Tenants
A+
A
B
C
Lacoste
Aldo Accessories
Abercrombie & Fitch
Aeropostale
Louis Vuitton
Apple
Abercrombie Kids
American Apparel
Omega
bebe
Aerie
American Eagle Outfitters
Brooks Bros.
Aldo
Ashcroft & Oak Jewelers
Crabtree & Evelyn
Ann Taylor
Body Central
Fossil Accessory Store
Anthropologie
Buckle
Guess
Banana Republic
California Pizza Kitchen
J. Crew
BCBG MaxAzria
Champs
L'Occitane
BRIO Tuscan Grill
Charlotte Russe
Pandora
Express
dakota watch company
Ruum
H&M
Dillard's
Sephora
Hollister
Frederick's of Hollywood
J. Jill
Gap
Limited
Gymboree
Lululemon
Hannoush Jewelers
Naturalizer
Hot Topic
Soma
Icing by Claire's
Tickner's
JB Robinson
Williams-Sonoma
Journeys
XXI
Kay Jewelers
Lady Foot Locker
Lids
Littman Jewelers
New York & Company
Pac Sun
Papaya
Perfumania
Rogers and Hollands
Spencer's
Things Remembered
Torrid
Victoria's Secret
Wet Seal
Source: Retailer & Property Web-sites and Gerney Research.
v Because of the competitive forces found in the North, South and Downtown
submarkets, the primary retail trade area (shaded in green on the map presented
on the following page) for the proposed American Place is projected to be
confined primarily to the Western Indianapolis submarket areas.
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v Beyond this primary retail trade area, a secondary trade area has also been
delineated that takes into account the enhanced attraction that this facility will
generate due to its overall focus on entertainment, major events and gaming.
American Place – Projected Primary Retail & Secondary Trade Areas
v The broad reach of the primary retail trade area will enable American Place to
reach a population equivalent to nearly 25.0 percent of the total metropolitan area
– with the secondary trade area extending this geographic reach throughout the
central and west-central portions of the state.
v The total 2015 primary retail trade area was estimated to be home to a resident
population of approximately 488,200 persons. The secondary trade area adds
another 1.3+ million persons to this total.
v This population is estimated to have increased at a pace that exceeded the metrowide norm over the period 2000 through 2015 – at 22.5 vs. 18.7 percent.
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v Per Capita Incomes here are only slightly lower ($26,258 vs. $28,410) than the
metropolitan area but are above the state average.
v Using our database of nearly 1,800 shopping centers located throughout the
nation, a list of five (5) that are considered to be the most comparable lifestyletype venues were selected.
American Pace – Analog Centers Based on 8-Mile Population & Income Characteristics
Shopping Center
Market
American Place
Indianapolis, IN
Per Capita
Income
Population
Avg. HH
Income
Median HH
Income
HH w/
Income
>$100K
393,331
$
22,434
$
56,060
$
45,369
37,309
Analog Average
Variance
359,289
34,042
$
26,632
(4,198)
$
$
67,097
(11,037)
$
$
53,458
(8,089)
44,007
(6,698)
The Greene
Promenade at Saucon Valley
Index Value
Dayton, OH
Allentown, PA-NJ
1.09
350,461
351,043
$
$
0.84
29,278
26,249
$
$
0.84
67,779
66,981
$
$
0.85
53,729
53,547
0.85
47,200
42,709
Uptown Village at Cedar Hill
Dallas, TX
355,840
$
25,176
$
74,009
$
61,983
45,428
Eastwood Towne Center
ABQ Uptown
Lansing, MI
Albuquerque, NM
281,728
448,546
$
$
25,568
29,534
$
$
60,970
66,426
$
$
48,228
50,075
32,341
55,549
$
Sources: Scan/US & Gerney Research
American Pace – Analog Centers Key Affluence MOSAIC Household Characteristics
Power Elite
HH's
Flourishing
Families
Booming with
Confidence
Suburban
Style
Thriving
Boomers
Promising
Families
Shopping Center
Market
American Place
Indianapolis, IN
Analog Average
Variance
897
5,434
(4,537)
6,531
5,207
1,324
6,402
13,532
(7,130)
7,315
13,677
(6,362)
6,620
7,000
(380)
7,673
2,538
5,135
The Greene
Index Value
Dayton, OH
Allentown, PA-NJ
0.17
8,835
5,581
1.25
9,456
3,217
0.47
13,205
12,499
0.53
2,095
4,583
0.95
6,318
7,918
3.02
2,329
1,918
ABQ Uptown
Dallas, TX
Lansing, MI
Albuquerque, NM
2,090
3,842
10,222
5,970
4,757
6,883
8,728
9,244
23,656
44,446
4,005
1,674
1,418
6,620
12,044
4,516
1,524
2,194
v Understanding that the subject location provides potential tenants with essentially
equal surrounding market support as is enjoyed at these five analog locations
brings one to the issue of what tenants might be anticipated to occupy space at
this location. In order to provide some level of guidance to this question, tenant
data were collected for each of the five analog properties.
v From the above information, the following observations are provided in regards to
the overall tenant/merchandise mix at these properties:
Ø The average overall GLA of these retail/dining/entertainment venues
comes in at approximately 525,000 square feet – ranging from the smallest
(ABQ Uptown) at 220,000 square feet to the largest (The Greene) at
800,000 square feet.
Ø Of these five properties, two are anchored by fashion department stores –
those being The Greene (Von Muar) and Uptown Village at Cedar Hill
(Dillard’s). Of these two, Dillard’s (estimated at approximately $27.5
million) at Cedar Hill far out-produces Von Muar at The Greene (+/-$17.5
million).
Ø With the average total number of tenants at nearly forty-six (45.8), and
these retailers, restaurants and entertainment tenants falling primarily
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within the B, C, D & E-classifications of tenants, it seems fair to suggest
that the overall merchandise mix could be described as Moderate to
slightly above Moderate.
Ø Finally, one very real advantage that looks to be apparent when
considering the American Place location is that it is located further from
its nearest mall competitor (Circle Centre in Downtown Indianapolis is
8.00 miles straight-line distance) than is typical for these other analog
properties – which come in at an average distance of approximately 4.30
miles.
v Seeing that only two of the five analog properties are anchored by fashion
department stores begs the questions as to what types of other major tenants are
included in the tenant mix at these centers to help create the necessary critical
mass to attract both small shop tenant retailers as well as consumers. What was
found was that there is quite a variety of mid-sized boxes to work on recruiting to
American Place. On average, there are nearly five (4.8) of these retailers at the
analog centers.
American Place
Analog Average
The Greene
The Promenade
Shops at Saucon
Valley
Uptown Village at
Cedar Hill
Eastwood Towne
Center
ABQ Uptown
Analog Center Mid-Sized Box Retail Content
-
0.4
-
1
1
-
-
Books & Co.
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
Dick's Sporting Goods
-
0.4
-
-
1
1
-
DSW
-
0.2
-
-
-
1
-
Ethan Allen
-
0.2
-
-
1
-
-
Forever 21
-
0.4
1
-
-
1
-
Funny Bones Comedy Club
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
H&M
-
0.2
-
-
1
-
-
LL Bean
-
0.2
-
1
-
-
-
Multi-Screen Cinema
-
0.6
1
1
-
1
-
Nordstrom RACK
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
Old Navy
-
0.6
1
1
1
-
-
Pier 1
-
0.2
-
-
-
1
-
Schuler's Books & Music
-
0.2
-
-
-
1
-
The Fresh Market
-
0.2
-
1
-
-
-
Trader Joe's
-
0.2
-
-
-
-
1
-
0.2
-
-
1
-
-
-
4.8
6
5
6
6
1
Brand
Barnes & Noble
ULTA
TOTALS
Sources: Property Web-sites, Directory of Major Malls & Gerney Research
v Of those identified, it becomes rather apparent that several specific
sectors/retailers should be targeted quite seriously:
Ø A Multi-screen cinema (located at The Greene, Saucon Valley and
Eastwood) is likely first among this list as they not only attract consumers
on evenings and weekends but are also a favored co-tenant for full0service
restaurants. On the entertainment side of the equation, another use that
might be worth consideration could be a comedy club such as Funny
Bones that has been quite successful at The Greene (Dayton, OH).
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Ø A large-format bookstore was identified in four of the five centers (Barnes
& Noble in two, with Books & Co. and Schuler’s Books & Music in one
each) and they are well-regarded by both cinema’s and restaurants as a cotenant.
Ø A larger apparel offering is another retail type that is worthy of serious
recruitment efforts. Within this sector the more common players include
Forever 21, H&M and Old Navy. Retailers newer to inclusion in these
types of properties are LL Bean and Nordstrom RACK.
Ø Another retail sector that should be mentioned within this grouping of
mid-sized boxes is the home-oriented retail group. Within the tenant
rosters that were included in this analysis the two that were seen were
Ethan Allen and Pier 1. However, although not technically mid-sized
boxes, retailers such as Pottery Barn and Williams-Sonoma could also be
included as smaller space users within this sector. In addition, other larger
space users within this sector might be Arhaus, Container Store, Crate &
Barrel and Restoration Hardware.
Ø Finally, yet another use that looks to provide added consumer satisfaction,
as well as strong co-tenancy, is a specialty grocery operator – such as The
Fresh Market or Trader Joe’s.
v The importance of the entertainment component, in regards to the tourist
component of retail that is associated with either adjacent or a nearby casino as
American Place will be, can’t be overstated.
v In the case of the four tourist/destination casinos that were examined in several
previous analyses undertaken by our group, whether looking at spas, multi-screen
cinemas, nightclubs or blowing alleys, these have all become common amenities
within today’s casino landscape.
Ø Within the bowling concept realm, two potential players that come to
mind as distinct possibilities might be Lucky Strikes and Pin Stripes.
Ø When considering cinemas, those that are of the cine bistro-type format
might prove of higher priority as they would match up well with the
adjacent casino/tourist consumer traffic.
Analog
Average
MoheganSun,
CT
Foxwoods,CT
ViejasCasino,
CA
TurningStone,
NY
Representative Casino-Related Amenity Entertainment Uses
Spa
0.8
1
1
-
1
Cinema
0.8
1
1
-
1
Nightclub
0.8
1
1
1
-
Bowling
0.8
-
1
1
1
Amenities
Sources: Property Web-sites and Gerney Research
v Another critical sector for targeting is the full-service eating & drinking
(Restaurants and bars) group of tenants. In examining the rosters of the analog
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properties, it was calculated that the average number of these tenants is in the
range of just over five.
American Place
Analog Average
The Greene
Promenade Shops at
Saucon Valley
Uptown Village at
Cedar Hill
Eastwood Towne
Center
ABQ Uptown
Analog Center Full-Service Eating & Drinking Content
-
0.4
1
1
-
-
-
BD's Mongolian Grill
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
Bravo! Cucina Italiana
-
0.4
-
-
-
1
1
Brio Tuscan Grille
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
-
0.2
-
-
-
-
1
Claddagh Irish Pub
-
0.2
-
-
-
1
-
CRAVE
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
Elephant Bar
-
0.2
-
-
-
-
1
Fleming's Prime Steakhouse
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
Marcello's Chophouse
-
0.2
-
-
-
-
1
McCormick and Schmick
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
Melt
-
0.2
-
1
-
-
-
Mimi's Café
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
Mitchell's Fish Market
-
0.2
-
-
-
1
-
Noodle's & Co
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
P.F. Chang's
-
0.2
-
-
-
1
-
Panchero's Mexican Grill
-
0.2
-
-
-
1
-
Panera Bread
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
Razoo's Cajun Kitchen
-
0.2
-
-
1
-
-
Red Robin
-
0.2
-
1
-
-
-
Smokey Bones Bar & Grill
-
0.2
-
-
-
1
-
The Cheesecake Factory
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
The Melting Pot
-
0.2
-
-
-
-
1
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
-
5.2
11
3
1
6
5
Brand
Bar Louie
The Pub
TOTALS
v As can be seen from this information, there are only two (Bar Louie and
Bravo!/BRIO) that have been identified in at least two of the analog properties,
suggesting more regionality in the leasing within this sector. However, national
brands remain critical as such players as Fleming’s Wine Bar & Steakhouse,
McCormick & Schmick’s and P.F. Chang’s, etc. have all been identified.
v Also of note is the inclusion of fast-casual players such as California Pizza
Kitchen and Red Robin within this list, as well as a wide selection of pub-type
operators – e.g. Claddagh Irish Pub, Elephant Bar and the Pub.
v In today’s leasing world, it has become understood that a collection of four to six
full-service restaurants and bars can provide as much, or more, consumer traffic
than a traditional fashion department store. For example, while it is estimated that
while it is estimated that Von Muar generates in the range of $17.5 million ($145
per square foot out of their 120,000 square foot box) at The Greene, based on data
that we have been able to collect from various contacts, the estimated combined
sales at this property for Bar Louie, BRIO, Cheesecake Factory, Fleming’s and
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McCormick & Schmick, come in at approximately $22.5 million, or, over $550
per square foot out of just over 40,000 square feet.
v With a collection of mid-sized anchors, full-service restaurants & pubs and
entertainment venues that come close to approximating the composite created
from the five analog properties, these analog properties also provide a list of
forty-six (46) retailers that show up in at least two of the five analog centers and,
therefore, provide guidance as to what might be anticipated as a merchandise
offering at American Place.
Highest Probability Small Shop Specialty Tenants – Per Analog Centers
A
B
C
D
E
Apple
Ann Taylor
Aeropostale
Christopher & Bank
J. Crew
Banana Republic
Ann Taylor LOFT
Buckle
Claire's
Lucky Brand Jeans
Clarks
Carter's
Charming Charlie's
Finish Line
J. Jill
Crazy 8
Justice
GNC
Lululemon
Eddie Bauer
Kay Jeweler's
Jos. A. Bank
Pandora
Express
Lane Bryant
McAlister's Deli
Pottery Barn
Gap
Oshkosh
Sleep Number
Sephora
Gymboree
Pac Sun
Starbuck's
Williams-Sonoma
Journeys
Stride Rite
Sunglass Hut
New York & Company
Talbot's
Torrid
The Children's Place
Victoria's Secret
Yankee Candle
White House | Black Market
Note: The categories (A through E) shown in the table above indicate
the selectivity levels of retailers in where they (a) locate and (b) what
other retailers they prefer to have as co-tenants. A full discussion of
the methodology used in this analysis is provided in the Appendix.
v On a very positive note, from a prospective tenant perspective, is the fact that of
the retailers listed in the above table – when cross-referenced with the results of
the MSA-wide retail tenant analog analysis results from Table 24 – it was found
that twenty (20) were identified as being both one unit or more short of
anticipated metro-wide coverage an well as being found on at least two of the five
specific analog properties tenant rosters.
Common Cross-Referenced Small Shop Specialty Tenants – Per MSA & Analog Centers
Express
Journeys
Pandora
Ann Taylor
Gap
Kay Jewelers
Sephora
Apple
Gymboree
Lululemon
Torrid
Banana Republic
J. Crew
New York & Company
Victoria's Secret
Buckle
J. Jill
Pac Sun
Williams-Sonoma
v With the analysis that has been completed, as well as the data that has been
collected, it has been determined that the American Place location provides very
real potential for the development of a lifestyle-type retail/dining/entertainment
venue as a component of its overall master plan – which is to also include a major
casino facility as well as residential and hospitality offerings.
-9January 2016
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v When considering the overall sales productivity potential for this development
site – from a small shop specialty tenant perspective – it has been calculated that
should the developer be successful in attracting a similar line-up of tenants as has
been outlined in this analysis, a sales potential level of approximately $410 per
square foot is projected as a 1st Full-Year figure.
Small Shop Specialty Tenant Merchandise Classification Allocation & Sales Potential
Small Shop Fashion Tenants
Shopping Center
American Place
Square
Feet
Fashion
Department
Stores
Total
Fashion
Tenants
A+
A
B
C
Estimated
D
Distance
to Mall
E
Average Small
Shop Tenant Sales
600,000
-
36
-
3
7
12
7
7
8.00
523,000
0.4
36.0
0.2
3.4
6.6
11.0
7.4
7.4
4.29
$
$
420
The Greene
274,386
800,000
(0.4)
1
51
(0.2)
-
(0.4)
3
0.4
9
1.0
18
(0.4)
10
(0.4)
11
3.71
5.66
$
$
(10)
415
475,000
-
35
-
3
9
9
9
5
4.42
$
410
725,000
1
32
-
-
-
12
11
9
5.52
$
365
395,000
-
28
-
2
6
9
4
7
5.52
$
420
ABQ Uptown
220,000
-
34
1
9
9
7
3
5
0.33
$
490
Source: Gerney Research
v Asa reality check in regards to major retailing that exists at casino facilities
around the nation, data was collected for The District at Green Valley Ranch (Las
Vegas) as well as Mohegan Sun and Foxwoods in Connecticut.
Analog Casino-Related Retail Centers
Location
Est.AnnualVisitors
SquareFootage
EstSales
Sales/SF
Sales/Visitor
MoheganSun,CT
9,700,000
200,000
$109,000,000
$700
$11.24
Foxwoods
9,000,000
100,000
$150,000,000
$600
$16.67
-
300,000
$150,000,000
$500
$-
9,350,000
200,000
$136,333,333
$682
$14.58
TheDistrictatGreenValleyRanch
Average
v In terms of small shop tenancy and merchandise offerings in these properties –
looking at the full-price centers listed above (The District at Green Valley Ranch,
Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun) – it was found that the average number of national
and large regional specialty tenants came in at twenty-six (26), ranging from a
low of eighteen (18) at Mohegan Sun – which also houses a 300,000 square foot
outlet center – to thirty-nine (39) at The District at Green Valley Ranch.
v The retail sectors that appear the most often include apparel (Activa, American
Eagle Outfitters, Anthropologie, Chico’s, Columbia Sportswear, DownEast
Basics, Gymboree, H&M, Hard Rock Store, Janie and Jack, Jos. A. Bank, Kate
Spade, LOFT, Soma, Tommy Bahama, Under Armour, Vineyard Vines and
White House | Black Market), accessories and jewelry (Brighton, Bulgari,
Charming Charlie, Chopard, Coach, Fossil, Francesca’s, Landau, Lux bond &
Green, Pandora, Swarovski and Tiffany & Co.) and cosmetics/fragrances (Aveda,
bareminerals, Bath & Body Works, LUSH and Sephora).
v In addition, there looks to be a solid representation of home-oriented retailing as
merchandise offerings at these properties – e.g. Anthropologie, Brookstone,
- 10 January 2016
(570) 546 1080
410
Pottery Barn, West Elm and Williams-Sonoma. Finally, full-service national
chain restaurants are clearly an integral part of the offering at these properties,
with the likes of Johnny Rockets, King’s Fish House, P.F. Chang’s and The
Cheesecake Factory, having been identified.
v When cross-referenced against the retailers that have been identified as being
potential candidates for American Place, through the metropolitan area and analog
property investigations, this comparative data indicates that the tenant
opportunities laid out earlier provide solid guideposts for retail tenant targeting.
Full-Price Retailers at Casino Centers
The District at Green Valley (39)
Anthropologie
Aveda
Balboa Pizza
barre3
Mohegan Sun (18)
bareminerals
Brewster’s Trading Post
Brighton Collectibles
Brookstone
Foxwoods (21 Full-Price)
Activa
Activa Kicks
American Eagle
Bath & Body Works
Bath & Body Works
Chico's
Bulgari
Coach
Carina
Brookstone
Godiva
Chopard
Charming Charlie
Chico's
Color Me Mine
Johnny Rockets
Landau
Coach
Columbia Sportswear
LUSH
Ecco
Lux Bond & Green
Fossil
Due & Proper
Momentum Trading Post
H&M
Elephant Bar
Robert Graham
DownEast Basics
Francesca's Collections
Gymboree
Janie and Jack
Sephora
Hard Rock Store
Kate Spade
Swarovski
Misura
Tiffany & Co.
Panache
Jos. A. Bank
Tommy Bahama
Pandora
King's Fish House
Yankee Candle
Sunglass Hut
LOFT
Under Armour
Lucille's Smokehouse BBQ
Vineyard Vines
Lyfe Kitchen
Magnolia Lane
Ninush Design Studio & Furniture
Oil & Olive Food and Drink
P.F. Chang's
Panera Bread
Parque
Pottery Barn
Red Rock Running Co.
REI
Soma
The Coffee Bean & Tea Co.
The Walking Co.
Victoria's Secret
West Elm
Whole Foods
William-Sonoma
- 11 January 2016
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II. Introduction
The purpose of this report is to determine the market feasibility for the development of a
lifestyle center in the southwestern suburban portion of the Indianapolis MSA – in the
immediate vicinity of the newly redeveloped and expanded Indianapolis International
Airport (Map 1). Proposed for this development site, in addition to the 700,000+/- square
foot retail and entertainment component is a high-end boutique casino facility, as well as
residential and office components.
Map 1: American Place Location
- 12 January 2016
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III. Market Overview
3.1 Population
The eleven county Indianapolis metropolitan statistical area (MSA) is centrally located
within the state of Indiana. As the state capital, it is well-connected with the rest of the
region by a radial network of interstate highways. The location of American Place is in
western part of Marion County close to the Hendricks County line. Marion County is the
core of the Indianapolis MSA and encompasses all of the City of Indianapolis.
In terms of population, adjacent Hendricks County is the third most populous within the
MSA, with just under 153,000 residents (Table 1). Marion County is the most populated
with 936,000 inhabitants while Hamilton County (north/northeast of Marion) is second
with nearly 300,000.
Table 1
Population of Counties within MSA
Population
County
2000
Marion
Hamilton
Hendricks
Johnson
Madison
Hancock
Morgan
Boone
Shelby
Putnam
Brown
Indianapolis MSA
2010
2015
2020
860,454
903,393
936,332
965,280
182,740
274,569
299,521
326,657
104,093
145,448
152,740
161,374
115,209
139,654
145,819
153,512
133,358
131,636
132,654
134,223
55,391
70,002
71,029
73,109
46,107
56,640
63,301
70,048
66,689
68,894
68,695
69,976
43,445
44,436
44,860
45,711
36,019
37,963
37,869
38,517
14,957
15,242
15,722
16,256
1,658,463 1,887,877 1,968,542 2,054,663
Source: US Census Bureau & Scan/US
Avg. Annual Growth Rate
2000201020152010
2015
2020
0.50%
0.73%
0.62%
5.03%
1.82%
1.81%
3.97%
1.00%
1.13%
2.12%
0.88%
1.06%
-0.13%
0.15%
0.24%
2.64%
0.29%
0.59%
2.28%
2.35%
2.13%
0.33%
-0.06%
0.37%
0.23%
0.19%
0.38%
0.54%
-0.05%
0.34%
0.19%
0.63%
0.68%
1.38%
0.85%
0.87%
The western counties (Hendricks, Morgan and Boone) combined for a total population of
approximately 285,000 for 2015, with that figure projected to exceed just over 300,000
during 2020. Both Hendricks and Morgan counties have shown strong population growth
since Census 2000 as well as being projected to continue that trend through 2020.
Morgan County has had the highest annual growth for 2010 through 2015 (at 2.35
percent) and is projected to continue to have the highest annual growth through 2020 –
with its annual growth projected to equal 2.13 percent per year.
Overall population growth in the Indianapolis MSA has been fairly steady since 2000
(Table 2). The total population in 2014 was nearly 2.0 million people, a little over
300,000 more than at year-end 2000 – representing an 18.9 percent total increase over the
Census of 2000. The majority of this growth has been fueled by Indianapolis’ natural
increase (Births - Deaths). However, being the economic and governmental hub of
- 13 January 2016
(570) 546 1080
Indiana, the region has also able to maintain steady inflows of domestic (migration) and
international (immigration) persons over that time. Net Domestic Migration has been
consistently positive throughout this time period. International Immigration has also
brought in close to 4,000 in each of the past four years.
Table 2
Historic Population Change – Indianapolis, IN MSA
Components of Change
Year
Population
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
1,658,462
1,687,209
1,708,018
1,729,297
1,750,639
1,772,959
1,800,724
1,826,515
1,850,321
1,873,460
1,887,877
1,910,206
1,928,783
1,953,146
1,971,274
%
Change
Total
Change
1.73%
1.23%
1.25%
1.23%
1.27%
1.57%
1.43%
1.30%
1.25%
0.77%
1.18%
0.97%
1.26%
0.93%
Birth
28,747
20,809
21,279
21,342
22,320
27,765
25,791
23,806
23,139
14,417
22,329
18,577
24,363
18,128
26,162
26,003
26,220
27,146
26,688
27,360
28,157
28,061
27,742
6,556
26,912
26,472
26,557
26,630
Deaths
14,162
13,980
13,733
14,136
14,360
14,022
14,254
13,958
14,433
3,609
14,974
15,279
15,145
15,200
International
Immigration
Net
Domestic
Migration
3,639
3,467
3,054
3,054
3,210
3,277
2,974
2,878
2,888
940
4,007
3,966
4,340
4,370
8,823
5,766
5,062
6,437
7,042
11,431
8,797
6,432
6,944
485
1,555
3,522
8,948
2,234
Source: U.S. Bureau of Census
The nearly 2.0 million residents of Indianapolis easily make it the largest metropolitan
area within the state as well as a strong economic center within the greater region (Table
3). While Chicago dwarfs all the other metropolitan areas in this region, Indianapolis sits
nicely among other solid middle markets such as: St. Louis, Cincinnati, Columbus and
Louisville. Furthermore, with the exception of Columbus, Indianapolis is growing at a
faster rate than all of the other metropolitan areas. Looking forward to 2020, Indianapolis
is projected to see its population increase by an additional 0.9 percent per year – pushing
it to over 2.0 million persons.
Table 3
Population Growth of Major Regional MSAs
MSA
2000
Population
2010
2015
2020
Chicago
St. Louis
Cincinnati
Columbus
Indianapolis
Louisville
Indiana State
9,098,317
2,675,342
1,994,831
1,675,011
1,658,463
1,121,114
6,080,485
9,461,105
2,787,701
2,114,580
1,901,974
1,887,877
1,235,708
6,596,855
9,739,343
2,842,038
2,172,102
2,109,090
2,054,663
1,293,535
6,803,135
9,574,951
2,808,563
2,142,597
1,993,805
1,968,542
1,263,126
6,618,162
Avg. Annual Growth Rate
2000-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
0.40%
0.42%
0.60%
1.35%
1.38%
1.02%
0.85%
0.24%
0.15%
0.26%
0.97%
0.85%
0.44%
0.06%
Source: Scan/US
- 14 January 2016
(570) 546 1080
0.34%
0.24%
0.28%
1.16%
0.87%
0.48%
0.56%
3.2 Single-Family Residential Building Permit Activity
As had occurred throughout the country, the Indianapolis single-family residential
construction market plummeted from its peak in 2005 (Table 4). Prior to this plunge,
there were six strong years of growth from 2000 through 2005. The number of permits
filed annually, during this earlier period, remained relatively steady averaging over
13,000 per year. By 2009, there were nearly 10,000 fewer than that average. Production
has rebounded slightly, averaging around 5,000 over the past two years. Of course, this
trend has not been local to only Indianapolis. Indiana and the United States as a whole
have experienced the very same decline and gradual recovery.
The average construction cost for these proposed homes within Indianapolis rose
gradually from 2000 through 2007. There was a minor setback from 2008 through 2010.
Pricing picked up substantially from the year 2012 onward, with the average cost in 2014
reaching a level that was some 30.0 percent higher than that in 2007.
Table 4
Historic Single-Family Residential Building Permit Activity – Indianapolis MSA
Year
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
NumberofDwellingUnits
Units
%Change
12,860
14,956
16.3%
13,412
-10.3%
13,228
-1.4%
12,822
-3.1%
13,054
1.8%
9,634
-26.2%
7,332
-23.9%
4,469
-39.0%
3,662
-18.1%
3,869
5.7%
3,687
-4.7%
4,070
10.4%
5,107
25.5%
4,965
-2.8%
AverageValuePerUnit
Value($)
%Change
$145,300
$150,600
3.6%
$156,500
3.9%
$163,800
4.7%
$172,400
5.3%
$176,200
2.2%
$189,500
7.5%
$190,800
0.7%
$189,200
-0.8%
$179,900
-4.9%
$181,100
0.7%
$193,000
6.6%
$221,000
14.5%
$229,600
3.9%
$247,700
7.9%
Within this overall single-family residential development landscape, it has
been found that the Hendricks County portion of the metropolitan area has
maintained a relatively stable market share of the permits issued annually
throughout the period of study – ranging from a low of 11.4 percent (2001)
to a high of 16.8 percent (2009) – and averaging 14.2 percent (Table 5).
From a product pricing perspective, it appears that this part of the
metropolitan area has continued to offer consumers a slightly better-priced
alternative to metro-wide norms throughout the period 2000 through 2014,
with having been only one year (2010) in which the average value of singlefamily permits exceeded the metro-wide norm.
- 15 January 2016
(570) 546 1080
Table 5
SF Residential Building Permit Activity – Hendricks County
Hendricks County, IN
Indianapolis MSA
Year
2000
Number
1,727
% of MSA
13.43%
Change
-
Percent
-
Average Value
$125,524
% of MSA
86.39%
Number
12,860
Average Value
$145,300
2001
2002
1,706
1,944
11.41%
14.49%
-21
238
-1.22%
13.95%
$137,263
$137,840
91.14%
88.08%
14,956
13,412
$150,600
$156,500
2003
2004
2,155
1,814
16.29%
14.15%
211
-341
10.85%
-15.82%
$145,877
$155,533
89.06%
90.22%
13,228
12,822
$163,800
$172,400
2005
2006
1,934
14.82%
120
6.62%
$161,984
91.93%
13,054
$176,200
2007
1,350
979
14.01%
13.35%
-584
-371
-30.20%
-27.48%
$185,868
$185,123
98.08%
97.02%
9,634
7,332
$189,500
$190,800
2008
2009
640
617
14.32%
16.85%
-339
-23
-34.63%
-3.59%
$185,360
$179,585
97.97%
99.82%
4,469
3,662
$189,200
$179,900
2010
2011
567
534
14.65%
14.48%
-50
-33
-8.10%
-5.82%
$189,516
$185,533
104.65%
96.13%
3,869
3,687
$181,100
$193,000
2012
2013
561
692
13.78%
13.55%
27
131
5.06%
23.35%
$198,714
$215,381
89.92%
93.81%
4,070
5,107
$221,000
$229,600
2014
697
14.04%
5
0.72%
$219,694
88.69%
4,965
$247,700
In Tables 6, 7 and 8, the combined western counties of the MSA are shown
along with Morgan and Boone counties individually. The combined
counties account for 25.0 percent of the building permits each year since
2009 which is an increase from the 21.0 to 22.0 percent in 2008 and prior.
Table 6
SF Residential Building Permit Activity
Hendricks, Morgan & Boone Counties
Year
Hendricks. Morgan and Boone Counties, IN
% of MSA
Change
Percent
Average Value
20.90%
$134,685
% of MSA
92.69%
Indianapolis MSA
Number
Average Value
12,860
$145,300
2000
Number
2,688
2001
2002
2,646
2,858
17.69%
21.31%
-42
212
-1.56%
8.01%
$147,007
$147,837
97.61%
94.46%
14,956
13,412
$150,600
$156,500
2003
2004
2,959
2,697
22.37%
21.03%
101
-262
3.53%
-8.85%
$154,898
$166,021
94.57%
96.30%
13,228
12,822
$163,800
$172,400
2005
2006
2,762
2,029
21.16%
21.06%
65
-733
2.41%
-26.54%
$175,592
$197,141
99.65%
104.03%
13,054
9,634
$176,200
$189,500
2007
2008
1568
1024
21.39%
22.91%
-461
-544
-22.72%
-34.69%
$193,287
$195,688
101.30%
103.43%
7,332
4,469
$190,800
$189,200
2009
2010
952
1004
26.00%
25.95%
-72
52
-7.03%
5.46%
$184,063
$178,942
102.31%
98.81%
3,662
3,869
$179,900
$181,100
2011
976
26.47%
-28
-2.79%
$177,003
91.71%
3,687
$193,000
2012
2013
1041
1282
25.58%
25.10%
65
241
6.66%
23.15%
$205,783
$221,371
93.11%
96.42%
4,070
5,107
$221,000
$229,600
2014
1248
25.14%
-34
-2.65%
$234,720
94.76%
4,965
$247,700
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(570) 546 1080
Table 7
SF Residential Building Permit Activity – Morgan County
Year
Morgan County, IN
Change
Percent
Average Value
$112,198
-49
-8.89%
$124,676
% of MSA
77.22%
82.79%
Indianapolis MSA
Number
Average Value
12,860
$145,300
14,956
$150,600
2000
2001
Number
551
502
% of MSA
4.28%
3.36%
2002
2003
485
332
3.62%
2.51%
-17
-153
-3.39%
-31.55%
$137,097
$153,044
87.60%
93.43%
13,412
13,228
$156,500
$163,800
2004
2005
317
275
2.47%
2.11%
-15
-42
-4.52%
-13.25%
$160,159
$169,837
92.90%
96.39%
12,822
13,054
$172,400
$176,200
2006
233
2.42%
-42
-15.27%
$184,608
97.42%
9,634
$189,500
2007
2008
155
95
2.11%
2.13%
-78
-60
-33.48%
-38.71%
$173,003
$152,396
90.67%
80.55%
7,332
4,469
$190,800
$189,200
2009
2010
75
85
2.05%
2.20%
-20
10
-21.05%
13.33%
$177,112
$166,625
98.45%
92.01%
3,662
3,869
$179,900
$181,100
2011
2012
84
112
2.28%
2.75%
-1
28
-1.18%
33.33%
$145,412
$162,699
75.34%
73.62%
3,687
4,070
$193,000
$221,000
2013
2014
102
127
2.00%
2.56%
-10
25
-8.93%
24.51%
$171,470
$188,354
74.68%
76.04%
5,107
4,965
$229,600
$247,700
Table 8
SF Residential Building Permit Activity – Boone County
Year
Boone County, IN
Change
Percent
Average Value
$203,488
28
6.83%
$210,555
% of MSA
140.05%
139.81%
Indianapolis MSA
Number
Average Value
12,860
$145,300
14,956
$150,600
2000
2001
Number
410
438
% of MSA
3.19%
2.93%
2002
2003
429
472
3.20%
3.57%
-9
43
-2.05%
10.02%
$205,276
$197,388
131.17%
120.51%
13,412
13,228
$156,500
$163,800
2004
2005
566
553
4.41%
4.24%
94
-13
19.92%
-2.30%
$202,916
$226,043
117.70%
128.29%
12,822
13,054
$172,400
$176,200
2006
2007
446
434
4.63%
5.92%
-107
-12
-19.35%
-2.69%
$237,810
$218,947
125.49%
114.75%
9,634
7,332
$189,500
$190,800
2008
289
6.47%
-145
-33.41%
$232,790
123.04%
4,469
$189,200
2009
2010
260
352
7.10%
9.10%
-29
92
-10.03%
35.38%
$196,693
$164,882
109.33%
91.04%
3,662
3,869
$179,900
$181,100
2011
2012
358
368
9.71%
9.04%
6
10
1.70%
2.79%
$171,693
$229,672
88.96%
103.92%
3,687
4,070
$193,000
$221,000
2013
2014
488
424
9.56%
8.54%
120
-64
32.61%
-13.11%
$240,295
$273,308
104.66%
110.34%
5,107
4,965
$229,600
$247,700
- 17 January 2016
(570) 546 1080
3.3 Employment
Along with a total population growth of almost 300,000 inhabitants since the year 2000,
the total employed population has also grown by 80,000 (Table 9). In 2000, the total
employed population of Indianapolis stood at 856,000 with an unemployment rate of only
2.6 percent. The total employment grew steadily through 2008. With the coming of the
recession, Indianapolis lost about 6.6 percent of its employed population by 2010. The
unemployment rate also peaked at 9.6 percent in 2010. Fortunately, things looked much
brighter by 2014 with total employment rising by more than 77,000 to an all-time high of
936.347 and employment dropping back to 5.7 percent, well below the national rate of
6.2 percent.
Table 9
Indianapolis MSA – Historic Employment Data
Year
2000
2001
Indianapolis,INMSA
Total
Change Percent
856,280
-
-
865,196
8,916
1.04%
Un-Employment
MSA
IN
US
2.61%
3.11%
4.00%
3.47%
4.25%
4.70%
Total
56,302
58,470
2002
2003
870,098
884,370
2004
2005
2006
HendricksCounty,IN
Change Percent
Un-Employment
-
-
2.02%
2,168
3.85%
2.68%
Countyas
%ofMSA
6.58%
6.76%
4,902
14,272
0.57%
1.64%
4.70%
4.83%
5.18%
5.29%
5.80%
6.00%
60,699
62,833
2,229
2,134
3.81%
3.52%
3.78%
4.13%
6.98%
7.10%
883,289
-1,081
-0.12%
4.89%
5.36%
5.50%
64,617
1,784
2.84%
3.88%
7.32%
893,668
912,885
10,379
19,217
1.18%
2.15%
5.05%
4.53%
5.47%
5.04%
5.10%
4.60%
66,604
69,080
1,987
2,476
3.08%
3.72%
4.07%
3.66%
7.45%
7.57%
2007
2008
916,391
919,709
3,506
3,318
0.38%
0.36%
4.17%
5.23%
4.57%
5.89%
4.60%
5.80%
70,048
70,815
968
767
1.40%
1.09%
3.27%
4.31%
7.64%
7.70%
2009
2010
877,985
859,152
-41,724
-18,833
-4.54%
-2.15%
8.78%
9.60%
10.30%
10.38%
9.30%
9.60%
68,044
68,833
-2,771
789
-3.91%
1.16%
7.63%
7.85%
7.75%
8.01%
2011
2012
874,379
886,267
15,227
11,888
1.77%
1.36%
8.74%
8.00%
9.12%
8.33%
8.90%
8.10%
70,720
72,044
1,887
1,324
2.74%
1.87%
7.00%
6.39%
8.09%
8.13%
2013
2014
906,042
936,347
19,775
30,305
2.23%
3.34%
7.33%
5.73%
7.67%
6.03%
7.40%
6.20%
74,173
76,644
2,129
2,471
2.96%
3.33%
5.85%
4.67%
8.19%
8.19%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
As was presented when offering information on the regions single-family residential
landscape, employment data were broken down to the Hendricks County level as well –
in order to determine if this geographic portion of the metropolitan area has evolved over
time as more than just a bedroom community and into an area that also is home to a
growing percentage of metro-wide employment. From the above data that is indeed what
appears to have occurred, with Hendricks County’s share of metro-wide employment
having grown form 6.6 percent in 2000 to the latest year-end figure of 8.2 percent – an
increase in its share of employment of 24.5 percent. This growth in employment has
right in-line with the county’s population growth/share level, which grew from 6.3 to 7.9
percent, or, 26.1 percent of overall metro-wide population.
Table 10 provides the historical employment data for Morgan and Boone Counties. The
three western counties compare well from an unemployment rate standpoint versus the
MSA. Both Hendricks and Boone have been consistently better than the MSA since the
year 2000.
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Table 10
Morgan & Boone Counties – Historic Employment Data
Morgan County, IN
County as
Boone County, IN
County as
Year
Total
Change
Percent
Un-Employment
% of MSA
Total
Change
Percent
Un-Employment
% of MSA
2000
34,647
-
-
2.51%
4.05%
23,735
-
-
2.15%
2.77%
2001
34,689
42
0.12%
3.34%
4.01%
24,024
289
1.22%
2.82%
2.78%
2002
34,806
117
0.34%
4.68%
4.00%
24,513
489
2.04%
3.81%
2.82%
2003
35,221
415
1.19%
4.80%
3.98%
25,100
587
2.39%
4.03%
2.84%
2004
35,111
-110
-0.31%
4.69%
3.98%
25,476
376
1.50%
3.95%
2.88%
2005
35,351
240
0.68%
4.98%
3.96%
26,054
578
2.27%
4.13%
2.92%
2006
35,886
535
1.51%
4.55%
3.93%
26,994
940
3.61%
3.74%
2.96%
2007
35,273
-613
-1.71%
4.18%
3.85%
26,995
1
0.00%
3.45%
2.95%
2008
35,359
86
0.24%
5.76%
3.84%
27,197
202
0.75%
4.33%
2.96%
2009
33,260
-2,099
-5.94%
9.18%
3.79%
26,091
-1,106
-4.07%
7.74%
2.97%
2010
31,385
-1875
-5.64%
10.37%
3.65%
27,155
1064
4.08%
7.60%
3.16%
2011
31,641
256
0.82%
9.33%
3.62%
27,815
660
2.43%
6.74%
3.18%
2012
31,776
135
0.43%
8.37%
3.59%
28,394
579
2.08%
6.15%
3.20%
2013
32,227
451
1.42%
7.57%
3.56%
29,339
945
3.33%
5.76%
3.24%
2014
33,319
1,092
3.39%
5.84%
3.56%
30,346
1,007
3.43%
4.49%
3.24%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
3.4 Indianapolis Retail Landscape
According to the most recent quarterly report published by the local office of CBRE, the
Indianapolis retail market presents the following summary characteristics:
Ø Demand remains strong for newer properties within the metropolitan regions
major trade areas, while older buildings in less desirable areas keep overall
market fundamentals in check,
Ø The market-wide availability rate declined by an impressive 140 basis points from
the previous quarter as a result of robust leasing activity. There is some level of
caution as speculative building – although less than in the past cycle – continues
to elevate vacancy rates.
Ø Geographically, several sub-markets have vacancy levels that have dropped below
4.0 percent. These include Fishers, Noblesville and Greenwood.
Ø Net absorption increased slightly to almost 190,000 square feet during this past
quarter, which is nearly double the five-year quarterly average.
Ø Among product types, lifestyle centers and malls (which this report will analyze
in detail) posted a decline of almost 30 basis points while power, neighborhood,
community and strip centers remained relatively unchanged (Table 11).
Table 11
Indianapolis MSA – Lifestyle Center & Mall Inventory Statistics
Property
Total
Vacant
Vacancy
2nd Quarter
Year-To-Date
Average Direct
Type
GLA
GLA
Rate
Net Absorption
Net Absorption
Asking Rent/SF
11,640,706
612,456
5.3%
41,734
46,707
Lifestyle/Mall
$
24.49
Source: CBRE
Ø Completions were up at approximately 317,500 square feet, while new square
footage under construction fell slightly to in the range of 350,000 square feet.
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Ø Sales of existing retail properties increased in terms of the number of deals and
square footage; however, the average price per square foot fell as fewer deals
were focused on credit tenant net leased assets.
Geographic Sub-Market Summaries
North
The North sub-market continues to see a substantial portion of the metro-wide leasing
activity, with thirty-five (35) of the ninety (90), or 38.9 percent, lease deals that occurred
north of 86th Street during this past quarter (Table 12). While construction activity is up
this year, it isn’t nearly as high as it was seen during the pre-recession years. This is
causing some notable supply restraints, particularly in the Fishers/Noblesville sub-market
area where vacancy rates have declined to only 3.2 percent. The sub-market also saw
several significant build-to-suit deliveries during this past Quarter with the completion of
Cabela’s in Noblesville, Market District by Giant Eagle in Carmel and Fresh Thyme in
both Carmel and Fishers.
Table 12
Indianapolis MSA – Geographic Retail Sub-Market Inventory Summary
Geographic
Total
Vacant
Vacancy
2nd Quarter
Year-To-Date
Average Direct
Sub-Market
GLA
GLA
Rate
Net Absorption
Net Absorption
Asking Rent/SF
Central
18,428,528
1,298,603
7.0%
119,265
87,150
$
North
17,497,246
1,011,921
5.8%
88,540
183,334
$
South
6,020,620
342,092
5.7%
(21,142)
(21,131)
East
2,157,745
173,637
8.0%
1,569
(4,692)
$
8.45
West
6,872,519
357,973
5.2%
(5,773)
130,746
$
14.78
50,976,658
3,184,226
6.2%
182,459
375,407
$
13.81
TOTAL
12.91
$
16.43
11.21
Source: CBRE
South
This sub-market area is also proving to be an area of strong activity. The SouthportGreenwood trade area has seen more than 260,000 square feet of positive net absorption
this year and just saw the delivery of a new Kroger Marketplace this quarter. In addition
to several new grocery stores and a Costco in the works, this quarter also saw the
announcement of a planned major retail development in the SE quadrant of County Line
Road & I-65 called Greenwood Town Center – proposed to include a cinema, boxes,
restaurants and specialty retailing that will encompass approximately 580,000 square feet.
Downtown (Central)
The Downtown trade area (which is imbedded within the larger Central sub-market),
although suffering from a 12.0 percent vacancy rate, is considered to be a bright spot, as
in less than two years this figure has dropped by 140 basis points. Meanwhile average
asking rents have increased by up to 32.0 percent during this same timeframe to nearly
$17.00 NNN per square foot annually. Restaurants, brew pubs and personal services are
taking advantage of new residents and employees within the central business district and
adjacent neighborhoods. With more than 1,300 new housing units currently under
construction and an increase in office occupancies, this trend is anticipated to continue
into the foreseeable future.
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West
This is the geographic sub-market in which the proposed American Place will be located.
The dominant retail trade area within the West sub-market is centered on the community
of Plainfield – which his located about 5.00 miles to the west of the subject development
site – where the west sides premier lifestyle-type fashion-oriented property (The Shops at
Perry Crossing) is situated. With a total retail center inventory of nearly 6.9 million
square feet (13.5 percent of the metro-wide total), this sub-market enjoys a vacancy level
that is below the metro-wide norm – at 5.2 vs. 6.2 percent.
3.5 Indianapolis Fashion Retail Landscape
The fashion retail scene in Indianapolis can easily be divided into four main submarkets
along with two minor submarkets (Map 2). The four main submarkets are North, South,
West and Downtown. The east side of the Indianapolis market is insignificant when it
comes to fashion retailing while the city of Anderson also offers very little fashion
content and is rather distant from everything else in the region (about 35 miles from
downtown Indianapolis).
The North Submarket is the clear-cut dominant fashion submarket. Over half of the
market’s fashion/lifestyle brand stores are found within this submarket (Table 13).
Submarket
North
South
West
Downtown
East
Anderson
Market Total
Table 13
Submarket Fashion/Lifestyle Retail Summary
Stores
A+
A
B
C
213
12
36
47
60
71
0
4
13
27
41
0
0
0
12
51
0
9
12
18
10
0
0
0
3
32
0
0
0
3
418
12
49
72
123
Source: Gerney Research Group
D
35
16
16
9
4
3
83
E
23
11
13
3
3
26
79
Indiana’s most upscale fashion shopping center is located in the heart of this northern
submarket. The Fashion Mall at Keystone is anchored by Saks Fifth Avenue and
Nordstrom and is the only site for the most upscale A+ fashion brands (Table 14). These
include Burberry, Cole Haan, Michael Kors and Tiffany & Company. Castleton Square,
also located within this North Submarket, is in close competition with Greenwood Park
Mall (from the South Submarket) as the metropolitan areas second most fashionable
shopping mall, and more reasonably as the most main-stream regional mall. Despite
being just over two miles east of the Fashion Mall at Keystone, Castleton Square still
attracts a decent number of Class A-classification tenants (Pandora, Skechers, Teavana
etc.) along with an abundant supply of Class B & C-class retailers (Fossil, Aeropostale,
American Eagle Outfitters, Forever 21, H&M, Limited and many other mall regulars).
This property achieves the ability to provide this level of fashion content on the backs of
a strong fashion anchor line up of Von Maur and Macy’s.
- 21 January 2016
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Map 2: Indianapolis Fashion
Table 14
Major Fashion/Lifestyle Shopping Centers
Submarket
North
North
North
Project Name
Castleton Square
Clay Terrace
Fashion Square at Keystone
North
South
West
Hamilton Town Center
Greenwood Park
Lafayette Square
The Shops at Perry Crossing (formerly
Metropolis)
Circle Centre
Washington Square
Mounds Mall of Anderson
Market Total
West
Downtown
East
Anderson
Stores
66
36
79
A+
0
0
12
A
7
2
26
B
11
6
25
C
26
14
7
D
14
6
7
E
8
8
2
32
71
15
0
0
0
1
4
0
5
13
0
13
27
2
8
16
7
5
11
6
26
0
0
0
10
9
7
51
10
32
418
0
0
0
12
9
0
0
49
12
0
0
72
18
3
3
123
9
4
3
83
3
3
26
79
Two of the more recent fashion-oriented property additions to the market are the open-air
lifestyle centers Clay Terrace and Hamilton Town Center. Both of these are found
further north of Keystone and Castleton in suburban Hamilton County. Clay Terrace is
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about 6.00 miles due north of the Fashion Mall at Keystone. Following in the mold of
early lifestyle centers, it has no major department store anchors but features Whole Foods
Market and Dick's Sporting Goods. Hamilton Town Center is the newest fashion
shopping center in the greater Indianapolis region. Like Clay Terrace, it has no fashion
department store but does offer JCPenney to go along with Dick’s Sporting Goods, Stein
Mart and an Imax Theater. Because of the relative affluence of this northern submarket,
both of these shopping centers have been able to attract a good number of Class B & C
tenants.
The South fashion/lifestyle submarket has just one fashion shopping center: Greenwood
Park Mall. With no competition anywhere within the southern half of the Indianapolis
MSA, this mall has remained quite strong, particularly after adding Von Maur as an
anchor several years ago. It is now home to the likes of The Cheesecake Factory, Coach,
Express, Forever 21, Hollister, White House | Black Market, Chico’s, Francesca’s
Collections, Charming Charlie and Carhartt.
The West fashion submarket is the third largest submarket, but it is quite a ways behind
the South. While it was once an adequate shopping mall, Lafayette Square has fallen
onto hard times. It lost Macy’s as an anchor in 2008 and now has just Burlington Coat
Factory as its major anchor. This has allowed The Shops at Perry Crossing to rise as the
only fashion shopping center on the west side of the Indianapolis market. Like the other
lifestyle shopping centers developed a decade ago, The Shops at Perry Crossing has no
fashion department store anchor. It has, however, offered surrounding consumers a very
strong JCPenney, as well as Carmike Cinemas, Dick’s Sporting Goods and Barnes &
Noble, as its primary anchors. Within the mid-sized box category are such players as
DSW Shoes, Old Navy and ULTA Cosmetics. In addition, this property is home to
several other key retail tenants that include: American Eagle Ann Taylor LOFT,
Outfitters, Bath & Body Works, Charlotte Russe, The Children’s Place, Jos. A. Bank,
Kirkland’s, Lane Bryant and Victoria’s Secret. Finally, within the full-service restaurant
sector there are such players as Claddagh Irish Pub, Panera Bread and Stone Creek
Dinning Company.
The fashion/lifestyle content of Downtown Indianapolis is similar in size to the West
submarket. However, the quality is somewhat higher – being driven in large part to he
added sales dollars being spent here by the markets large tourist (professional sports and
convention) and office markets. Despite losing Nordstrom as an anchor, the Circle
Centre remains a fairly successful downtown fashion shopping center. This is a
relatively rare feat for a city the size of Indianapolis. The strength of the downtown
scene is best illustrated by the list of national restaurant chains that have located there.
These include Buca di Beppo, Hard Rock Café, McCormick & Schmick, Morton’s
Steakhouse, Shula’s Steak House, The Capital Grille, Champs Americana, P.F. Chang’s,
Palomino and Ruth’s Chris Steak House.
The West Submarket (Hendricks, Morgan, Boone counties) is more populous than the
South submarket (Johnson, Shelby) with a 2020 projection of 300,000 residents versus
200,000. The West is also projected to grow at 1.2 percent per year through 2020 as
- 23 January 2016
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compared to 0.9 percent in the South. The addition of American Place in western Marion
County alongside I-465, between I-70 and Hwy 40, would draw from these growing
western counties of the Indianapolis MSA as well as other areas due to easy access.
American Place will allow this submarket to ascend toward the direction of Greenwood
Park Mall.
3.6 Fashion Department Store Competition
There are currently five (5) fashion department store brands in operation within the
Indianapolis market (Table 15). These brands operate a total of nine (9) stores,
comprising over 1.4 million square feet. Five of these nine stores are concentrated in the
North submarket. Saks Fifth Avenue and Nordstrom are the only high-end fashion
department stores in the region, and they are both located at the Fashion Mall at
Keystone. Von Maur, positioned somewhere in between traditional fashion department
stores (like Carson’s and Macy’s) and high-end players (e.g., Saks and Nordstrom), has
taken a two-store approach to the market with a North store at Castleton Square and a
South store at Greenwood Park Mall. Macy’s is the largest department store brand in the
region with its three stores totaling over 700,000 square feet. However, like Von Maur,
Macy’s has split its stores between the North and the South submarkets. Macy’s operates
stores at both Castleton Square and Greenwood Park Mall, but its third store is found
fairly close to Castleton Square – just 4.00 miles to the southwest at Glendale Mall. In
terms of square footage, Carson’s is the third largest brand. Its two stores are found in
downtown Indianapolis at the Circle Centre and in far northeast of the market at the
Mounds Mall in Anderson.
Table 15
Fashion Department Store Square Footage
Saks Fifth
Avenue
120,000
Submarket
North
South
West
Downtown
East
Anderson
Total
Nordstrom
130,000
Von Maur
100,000
125,000
Macy's
535,000
180,000
Carson's
144,000
120,000
Power
130,000
225,000
715,000
Source: Directory of Major Malls
Table 16
Fashion Department Store Brand Strength
Saks Fifth
Avenue
Nordstrom Von Maur
Macy's
1.38
2.02
0.83
0.97
67,000
211,000
Total
885,000
305,000
0
144,000
0
67,000
1,401,000
Carson's
0.41
- 24 January 2016
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%ofSq.Ft.
SaksFi]hAvenue
Nordstrom
VonMaur
Macy's
Carson's
Figure 1: Fashion Department Store Market Share by Square Feet
%ofSales
SaksFi]hAvenue
Nordstrom
VonMaur
Macy's
Carson's
Figure 2: Fashion Department Store Market Share by Sales
- 25 January 2016
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IV. Analog Market Analysis
4.1 Analog Market Demographics
In order to better understand the Indianapolis retail market in terms of relative supply and
demand for fashion department stores, a list of ten (10) comparable metropolitan areas
were used to generate a composite market with which to index Indianapolis against
(Tables 17, 18 & 19). These markets are Columbus, OH; Kansas City, MO-KS;
Nashville, TN; Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN; Cleveland, OH; Milwaukee, WI; St. Louis, MOIL; Louisville, KY-IN; Pittsburgh, PA; and Hartford, CT. Following is a summary of
how the demographic and income characteristics of the Indianapolis metropolitan area
compares with these ten other markets.
Table 17
Demographics of Analog Markets
Market
Projected 5 Year
Growth
Population 2015
% Growth
Households
Avg. HH Size
Median Age
St. Louis
2,808,563
33,475
1.2%
1,163,764
2.37
38.9
Pittsburgh
2,363,874
3,823
0.2%
1,035,569
2.22
42.9
Cincinnati
2,142,597
29,505
1.4%
868,180
2.41
37.7
Cleveland
2,074,229
7,811
0.4%
893,719
2.27
41.1
Kansas City
2,061,804
40,188
1.9%
836,068
2.43
37.2
Columbus
1,993,805
115,285
5.8%
798,550
2.44
36.1
Nashville
1,760,681
91,422
5.2%
699,972
2.46
36.7
Milwaukee
1,573,546
19,747
1.3%
643,894
2.39
37.6
Louisville
1,263,126
30,409
2.4%
522,577
2.37
38.9
Hartford
1,220,793
19,373
1.6%
486,195
2.41
40.5
1,926,302
39,104
2.1%
794,849
2.38
38.8
1,971,274
86,121
4.4%
784,494
2.46
36.4
Average
Indianapolis
Source: Scan/US
Table 18
Analog Markets – Income Comparison
Market
Per Capita Income
Avg. HH Income
Median HH Income
HH w/ Income
>$100K
% HH w/
Income
>$100K
St. Louis
$
30,692
$
73,728
$
54,425
267,055
22.9%
Pittsburgh
$
30,527
$
69,202
$
51,924
221,025
21.3%
Cincinnati
$
29,780
$
73,068
$
54,893
205,938
23.7%
Cleveland
$
29,099
67,141
$
49,249
184,592
20.7%
Kansas City
$
30,508
$
74,888
$
56,902
202,154
24.2%
Columbus
$
29,235
$
72,440
$
54,583
187,704
23.5%
Nashville
$
29,065
$
72,622
$
53,063
149,746
21.4%
Milwaukee
$
29,949
$
72,786
$
52,923
147,198
22.9%
Louisville
$
27,972
$
67,163
$
50,312
101,023
19.3%
Hartford
$
36,394
$
90,480
$
68,112
157,471
32.4%
54,639
182,391
23.2%
51,846
166,816
21.3%
Average
Indianapolis
$
$
$
30,322
28,410
$
$
73,352
70,834
$
$
Source: Scan/US
- 26 January 2016
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Table 19
Analog Markets – Mosaic Household Comparison
Flourishing
Families
Market
Booming with
Confidence
Suburban
Style
Thriving
Boomers
Promising
Families
Target
HH
% Target
HH
St. Louis
67,753
112,894
88,698
90,008
34,973
394,326
33.88%
Pittsburgh
31,621
68,048
37,668
94,699
10,453
242,489
23.42%
Cincinnati
72,786
75,062
52,029
54,974
28,591
283,442
32.65%
Cleveland
45,953
77,074
70,965
57,233
13,171
264,396
29.58%
Kansas City
71,928
76,312
42,109
50,748
39,156
280,253
33.52%
Columbus
72,793
52,961
48,065
40,142
30,857
244,818
30.66%
Nashville
40,116
52,720
58,490
58,109
34,940
244,375
34.91%
Milwaukee
33,184
81,003
37,492
37,013
11,980
200,672
31.17%
Louisville
23,039
40,831
30,242
45,301
14,809
154,222
29.51%
Hartford
23,574
60,602
37,081
39,476
4,980
165,713
34.08%
48,275
69,751
50,284
56,770
22,391
247,471
31.34%
56,062
54,633
55,562
53,027
41,621
260,905
33.26%
Average
Indianapolis
Source: Scan/US
Ø The average of these analog markets’ populations is just about equal to that of
Indianapolis. Half of them are larger –St. Louis being the largest with 2.8 million
residents – and half are smaller – Hartford is the smallest with 1.2 million people.
Ø Indianapolis’ population is expected to increase at a faster rate (4.4 percent) over
the next five years than the analog average of 2.1 percent.
Ø The Median Age is also considerably younger, two years below that composite
norm of 38.8 years of age.
Ø Key incomes levels for persons and households living within the Indianapolis
MSA are each within 10.0 percent of these other markets.
o Per Capita Income is only 6.0 percent below the average of $30,322 – at
$28,410.
o Average Household Income is close – 3.0 percent below – to the analog
average of $73,352, with $70,834.
o Median Household Income is 5.0 percent under the $54,639 average at
$51,846.
o There are also8.6 percent less households earning more than $100,000
annually in Indianapolis – at 166,816 vs. 182,391 of these households.
Ø In contrast, the proportion of target households for traditional fashion department
stores is well above the average. Thus, even though there are slightly fewer total
households in Indianapolis, the number of target households is 6.0 percent above
average.
Ø Overall, Indianapolis compares fairly well with these ten markets. And, where it
fall’s a little short in income levels, it makes it up with its slightly larger
population and target household base.
- 27 January 2016
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4.2 Fashion Shopping Center Space Analysis
Translating this analog analysis data into potential supply/demand figures, each market’s
total fashion shopping center GLA totals were collected (Table 20). The average square
footage of these ten markets was approximately 6.1 million square feet across 8 shopping
centers. Indianapolis has about 150,000 fewer square feet across its seven (Castleton
Square, Circle Centre, Clay Terrace, Fashion Mall at Keystone, Greenwood Park,
Hamilton Town Center and The Shops at Perry Crossing – Table 21) fashion shopping
centers. On a per capita basis, Indianapolis has 0.15 fewer square feet per person. If one
were to apply the indexed per capita level for this type of retail GLA (calculated to be
1.06 times the analog per capita norm – by combining the ratio’s for per capita, average
and median household incomes as well as both the number of >$100,000 and target
households), then it would be found that the per capita market support level for fashionoriented retail GLA would actually come in at 3.35 square feet. That means that there
could be the potential for approximately 670,000 square feet of additional fashion
shopping center GLA within the Indianapolis MSA.
Table 20
Fashion Shopping Center Space Comparison
Market
St. Louis
Fashion/ Lifestyle Shopping
Centers
Square Feet
Square Feet Per Capita
11
8,215,000
2.92
Pittsburgh
9
6,875,000
2.91
Cincinnati
9
5,835,000
2.72
Cleveland
10
7,605,000
3.67
Kansas City
12
8,575,000
4.16
Columbus
5
4,730,000
2.37
Nashville
8
5,960,000
3.39
Milwaukee
6
5,040,000
3.20
Louisville
5
4,235,000
3.35
Hartford
7
3,750,000
3.07
8.2
6,082,000
3.16
7
5,930,000
3.01
Average
Indianapolis
Table 21
Indianapolis – Fashion Shopping Center Inventory
Property
GLA
Castleton Square
1,385,000
Circle Centre
770,000
Clay Terrace
575,000
Fashion Mall at Keystone
710,000
Greenwood Park
1,290,000
Hamilton Town Center
665,000
Shops at Perry Crossing
535,000
Total GLA
5,930,000
- 28 January 2016
(570) 546 1080
4.3 Fashion Department Store Space Analysis
Employing the same methodology in regards to fashion department store square footage
that was employed in examining the fashion shopping center space of Indianapolis MSA,
it has been calculated that it is under-built by more than 1.0 million square feet of fashion
department store GLA (Table 22). This comparative analysis indicates that the market
could support a per capita fashion department store inventory of 1.21 square feet vs. the
existing 0.64 square feet per capita.
Table 22
Fashion Department Store Space Comparison
Market
Stores
Square Feet Per
Capita
Square Feet
Estimated Sales
($M)
Sale Per Capita
St. Louis
20
3,507,000
1.25
$
490.0
$
174
Pittsburgh
18
3,592,000
1.52
$
430.0
$
182
Cincinnati
14
2,728,000
1.27
$
310.0
$
145
Cleveland
13
2,330,000
1.12
$
305.0
$
147
Kansas City
10
2,349,000
1.14
$
275.0
$
133
Columbus
13
1,553,000
0.78
$
285.0
$
143
Nashville
7
1,947,000
1.11
$
190.0
$
108
15
1,750,000
1.11
$
330.0
$
210
Louisville
7
1,256,000
0.99
$
165.0
$
131
Hartford
5
1,024,000
0.84
$
180.0
$
147
11.8
2,203,600
1.14
$
296.0
$
154
9
1,270,000
0.64
$
240.0
$
122
Milwaukee
Average
Indianapolis
Sources: Directory of Major Malls & Gerney Research
With barely more than half the square footage of the analog average, it shouldn’t be
surprising to find that total fashion department store sales are estimated to be in the range
of $56.0 million below the analog market average. This works out to a deficit of $32 per
person throughout the Indianapolis MSA. Distributed across the entire metropolitan area,
it is estimated that between $60.0 and $65.0 million in fashion department store sales are
being left on the table.
4.4 Fashion-Oriented Retail Content
Understanding that the Indianapolis MSA clearly loos to be in a positon to support the
addition of further fashion-oriented and fashion department store GLA – based on the
preceding comparative analysis of the subject metropolitan area with the ten analog
markets – the critical question as to whether, or not, there exists market demand for the
inclusion of further specialty tenants needs to be addressed. When the higher-end retail
content that has been identified within the subject MSA is compared with that for the
three larger, and more comparable, markets – Cleveland, Pittsburgh and St. Louis – it was
found that Indianapolis comes in well below the anticipated levels of higher-end retailers
(Table 23). In this comparative analysis, the total number of A+, A, B & C-classification
retailers came in at 308 for Indianapolis – some 20.0 percent below the number for these
three other markets of 385 retail units.
- 29 January 2016
(570) 546 1080
Total
BetterQuality
Tenants
Table 23
Specialty Retail Content Comparison
Market
Indianapolis, IN
Analog Average
Variance
A+
A
B
C
308
10
59
84
155
385.0
(77.0)
10.0
-
67.7
(8.7)
95.7
(11.7)
211.7
(56.7)
330
404
6
12
66
59
86
90
172
243
421
12
78
111
220
Cleveland, OH
Pittsburgh, PA
St. Louis, MO-IL
Sources: Retailer and Property Web-sites, Directory of Major Malls and Gerney Research.
When one examines the specific retailers that might be attracted to either enter the
Indianapolis market, or add an additional units to their existing store location network, a
rather impressive list is generated (Table 24). In order to be placed on this list, a retailer
had to either (a) be present in at least two of the three analog markets and not yet in
Indianapolis, or, (b) have an existing unit within the subject MSA but also indicate the
potential for the addition of another metro-wide unit (by having a (0.7) or greater in the
Variance column on Table 25).
Table 24
Highest Probability Better-Quality Retail Target Tenants
A+
A
B
C
Lacoste
Aldo Accessories
Abercrombie & Fitch
Aeropostale
Louis Vuitton
Apple
Abercrombie Kids
American Apparel
Omega
bebe
Aerie
Brooks Bros.
Aldo
Crabtree & Evelyn
Ann Taylor
Body Central
Anthropologie
Buckle
Guess
Banana Republic
J. Crew
BCBG MaxAzria
Champs
L'Occitane
BRIO Tuscan Grill
Charlotte Russe
Pandora
Express
Ruum
H&M
Dillard's
Sephora
Hollister
J. Jill
Gap
Limited
Gymboree
Lululemon
Hannoush Jewelers
Naturalizer
Hot Topic
Soma
Icing by Claire's
Tickner's
JB Robinson
Williams-Sonoma
Journeys
XXI
Kay Jewelers
Lady Foot Locker
Lids
Littman Jewelers
New York & Company
Pac Sun
Papaya
Perfumania
Rogers and Hollands
Spencer's
Things Remembered
Torrid
Victoria's Secret
Wet Seal
- 30 January 2016
(570) 546 1080
Indianapolis, IN
Analog Average
Variance
Cleveland, OH
Pittsburgh, PA
St. Louis, MO-IL
Table 25
Indianapolis & Analog Markets Better-Quality Retailer Inventories
A+
AG Adriano Goldschmied
-
0.3
(0.3)
-
-
1
A+
Burberry
1
0.3
0.7
-
1
-
A+
C. Wonder
1
-
1.0
-
-
-
A+
Cole Haan
1
0.3
0.7
-
-
1
A+
Ecco
-
0.3
(0.3)
1
-
-
A+
Kate Spade
1
1.0
-
1
1
1
A+
Lacoste
-
1.3
(1.3)
1
2
1
A+
Louis Vuitton
-
0.7
(0.7)
-
1
1
A+
Microsoft Store
1
0.7
0.3
1
-
1
A+
Neiman Marcus
-
0.3
(0.3)
-
-
1
A+
Omega
-
0.7
(0.7)
-
1
1
A+
Puma
-
0.3
(0.3)
-
1
-
A+
Stuart Weitzman
1
-
1.0
-
-
-
A+
The Art of Shaving
1
1.0
-
1
1
1
A+
Tiffany & Co
1
0.7
0.3
-
1
1
A+
True Religion
1
1.0
-
1
1
1
A+
Tumi
1
0.3
0.7
-
1
-
A
A Pea In The Pod
-
0.3
(0.3)
-
1
-
A
Aldo Accessories
-
0.7
(0.7)
1
-
1
A
Allen Edmonds
-
0.3
(0.3)
1
-
-
A
American Girl
-
0.3
(0.3)
-
-
1
A
Apple
1
2.3
(1.3)
2
3
2
A
Arden B
1
1.0
-
1
-
2
A
Athleta
1
0.7
0.3
1
-
1
A
Aveda
1
1.3
(0.3)
2
1
1
A
Bachrach
2
0.3
1.7
-
-
1
A
Bare Escentuals
2
2.3
(0.3)
2
2
3
A
BCBGeneration
-
0.3
(0.3)
-
1
-
A
bebe
1
1.7
(0.7)
1
2
2
A
Bose Showcase Store
1
0.7
0.3
1
-
1
A
Brooks Brothers
1
1.7
(0.7)
2
1
2
A
Brookstone
2
2.0
-
2
2
2
A
Cache
1
3.3
(2.3)
2
5
3
A
Coach
3
3.0
-
2
3
4
A
Crabtree & Evelyn
-
1.0
(1.0)
1
2
-
A
Crocs
1
0.7
0.3
1
-
1
A
Easy Spirit
-
0.3
(0.3)
-
-
1
A
Eileen Fisher
-
0.3
(0.3)
-
-
1
A
Everything But Water
-
0.3
(0.3)
-
-
1
A
Forlove 21
1
0.3
0.7
-
-
1
A
-
1.0
(1.0)
1
-
2
A
Free People
1
0.7
0.3
1
1
-
A
Godiva Chocolatier
2
2.0
-
2
2
2
A
Guess
-
1.0
(1.0)
2
-
1
A
Hanna Andersson
1
0.7
0.3
1
-
1
A
Harry and David
-
0.3
(0.3)
-
-
1
A
J.Crew
1
2.3
(1.3)
2
3
2
A
Janie and Jack
1
1.3
(0.3)
1
2
1
A
Johnston and Murphy
2
1.7
0.3
2
2
1
A
Lego Store
1
0.3
0.7
1
-
-
A
Lilly Pulitzer
-
0.3
(0.3)
1
-
-
A
L'Occitane en Provence
1
2.0
(1.0)
2
2
2
A
Lovesac
1
0.7
0.3
-
2
-
Cluster
Brand
- 31 January 2016
(570) 546 1080
Indianapolis, IN
Analog Average
Variance
Cleveland, OH
Pittsburgh, PA
St. Louis, MO-IL
Table 25 - Continued
A
Lucky Brand Jeans
2
1.7
0.3
2
1
2
A
Lush
1
1.0
-
1
1
1
A
MAC
1
0.7
0.3
1
-
1
A
Madewell
1
0.7
0.3
1
1
-
A
Marmi
-
0.3
(0.3)
-
-
1
A
Michael Kors
1
1.3
(0.3)
1
1
2
A
Monsoon
-
0.3
(0.3)
-
-
1
A
Naartjie
-
0.3
(0.3)
-
-
1
A
Nine West
2
0.7
1.3
-
1
1
A
Nordstrom
1
1.3
(0.3)
1
1
2
A
Oakley
1
-
1.0
-
-
-
A
Pandora
2
3.0
(1.0)
3
3
3
A
PB Teen
-
0.3
(0.3)
-
-
1
A
Pottery Barn Kids
1
1.0
-
1
1
1
A
Ruum
-
0.7
(0.7)
-
2
-
A
Saks Fifth Avenue
1
0.7
0.3
1
-
1
A
Sephora
2
3.0
(1.0)
3
3
3
A
Six
1
-
1.0
-
-
-
A
Skechers
1
1.0
-
3
-
-
A
Solstice
2
1.0
1.0
1
-
2
A
Sperry Top-Sider
1
0.7
0.3
1
-
1
A
Steve Madden
-
0.3
(0.3)
-
-
1
A
Swarovski Crystal
2
2.0
-
2
2
2
A
Swim'n Sport
-
0.3
(0.3)
1
-
-
A
Teavana
4
4.0
-
4
3
5
A
Tommy Bahama
1
0.3
0.7
-
-
1
A
Vera Bradley
1
1.3
(0.3)
1
2
1
B
2b
1
0.3
0.7
-
1
-
B
Abercrombie & Fitch
2
3.0
(1.0)
3
4
2
B
Abercrombie Kids
1
2.3
(1.3)
2
3
2
B
Accessorize
-
0.3
(0.3)
-
-
1
B
Aerie
1
3.0
(2.0)
1
4
4
B
Aldo
2
3.0
(1.0)
3
3
3
B
Ann Taylor
2
3.0
(1.0)
3
2
4
B
Anthropologie
1
1.7
(0.7)
2
2
1
B
Bakers
-
0.7
(0.7)
-
-
2
B
Banana Republic
3
4.0
(1.0)
3
4
5
B
BCBG MaxAzria
1
2.7
(1.7)
3
2
3
B
1
1.3
(0.3)
1
1
2
B
Brio Tuscan Grille
-
1.0
(1.0)
2
-
1
B
Build-A-Bear Workshop
2
2.3
(0.3)
2
2
3
B
Cheesecake Factory
2
2.0
-
2
2
2
B
Clarks
2
2.3
(0.3)
3
2
2
B
Crate and Barrel
1
1.0
-
1
1
1
B
dElia's
2
1.7
0.3
2
1
2
B
Eddie Bauer
3
2.0
1.0
2
1
3
B
Express
5
5.7
(0.7)
5
6
6
B
Flip Flop Shops
1
-
1.0
-
-
-
B
Forever 21
3
3.0
-
2
2
5
B
Fossil Apparel Store
2
-
2.0
-
-
-
B
5
4.3
0.7
5
4
4
B
H&M
2
4.0
(2.0)
5
4
3
B
Hollister
4
5.0
(1.0)
4
5
6
Cluster
Brand
- 32 January 2016
(570) 546 1080
Pittsburgh, PA
St. Louis, MO-IL
House of Hoops by Foot Locker
1
0.3
0.7
-
-
1
B
J.Jill
1
2.7
(1.7)
2
2
4
B
le gourmet chef
1
-
1.0
-
-
-
B
Lids Locker Room
1
0.7
0.3
-
-
2
B
LL Bean
-
0.3
(0.3)
-
1
-
B
Love Culture
1
0.3
0.7
-
-
1
B
lucy
1
-
1.0
-
-
-
B
Lululemon athletica
1
1.7
(0.7)
1
2
2
B
Merrell
1
-
1.0
-
-
-
B
Moochie and Co.
1
1.0
-
2
1
-
B
Naturalizer
-
0.7
(0.7)
-
1
1
B
Origins
1
0.3
0.7
1
-
-
B
Papyrus
1
1.0
-
2
-
1
B
Pottery Barn
1
1.3
(0.3)
1
1
2
B
PS by Aeropostale
-
0.3
(0.3)
1
-
-
B
Restoration Hardware
1
1.0
-
1
1
1
B
See
-
0.3
(0.3)
-
-
1
B
Shi by Journeys
2
1.0
1.0
1
-
2
B
Soft Surroundings
-
0.3
(0.3)
-
-
1
B
Soma
2
3.3
(1.3)
2
4
4
B
Sports Fan-Attic
-
0.3
(0.3)
-
-
1
B
Sur La Table
1
1.0
-
1
1
1
B
The Body Shop
1
1.3
(0.3)
-
2
2
B
The Disney Store
1
1.0
-
1
1
1
B
The Limited
2
4.3
(2.3)
4
4
5
B
The North Face
1
0.7
0.3
1
-
1
B
The Walking Company
4
2.0
2.0
1
2
3
B
Ticknors
-
1.0
(1.0)
3
-
-
B
White House|Black Market
4
3.7
0.3
2
6
3
B
Williams-Sonoma
1
2.3
(1.3)
2
3
2
B
Windsor
2
0.7
1.3
1
-
1
B
XXI
-
1.0
(1.0)
-
2
1
B
Z Gallerie
1
-
1.0
-
-
-
C
Aeropostale
7
8.7
(1.7)
7
11
8
C
American Apparel
-
0.7
(0.7)
1
1
-
C
6
7.3
(1.3)
6
11
5
C
Andrews Jewelers
2
-
2.0
-
-
-
C
Ann Taylor LOFT
6
5.3
0.7
4
6
6
C
-
1.3
(1.3)
4
-
-
C
Benetton
-
0.3
(0.3)
-
1
-
C
bluemercury
-
0.3
(0.3)
1
-
-
C
Body Central
3
4.0
(1.0)
2
6
4
C
Buckle
4
5.0
(1.0)
4
5
6
C
1
2.0
(1.0)
1
1
4
C
Champs
4
6.0
(2.0)
5
7
6
C
Charlotte Russe
4
5.3
(1.3)
4
6
6
C
Crazy 8
3
3.3
(0.3)
3
4
3
C
3
4.7
(1.7)
6
5
3
C
Design Within Reach
-
0.3
(0.3)
-
-
1
C
Destination Maternity
1
1.3
(0.3)
2
-
2
C
Dillard's
-
3.0
(3.0)
4
-
5
C
-
1.0
(1.0)
1
-
2
C
Gap
3
4.0
(1.0)
4
6
2
Brand
Cleveland, OH
Analog Average
B
Cluster
Variance
Indianapolis, IN
- 33 January 2016
(570) 546 1080
Indianapolis, IN
Analog Average
Variance
Cleveland, OH
Pittsburgh, PA
St. Louis, MO-IL
C
Gordon's Jewelers
1
1.3
(0.3)
-
4
-
C
Gymboree
4
6.3
(2.3)
5
7
7
C
Hannoush Jewelers
-
1.0
(1.0)
-
-
3
C
Helzberg Diamonds
5
3.0
2.0
-
3
6
C
Hot Mama
1
0.7
0.3
1
-
1
C
Hot Topic
4
7.7
(3.7)
5
11
7
C
Icing by Claire's
2
3.7
(1.7)
4
1
6
C
JB Robinson
1
4.0
(3.0)
3
6
3
C
Journeys
4
7.7
(3.7)
7
9
7
C
Kay Jewelers
8
10.3
(2.3)
12
12
7
C
Kids Foot Locker
3
3.0
-
1
5
3
C
Kona Grill
1
-
1.0
-
-
-
C
Lady Foot Locker
2
3.3
(1.3)
2
3
5
C
Lids
4
7.7
(3.7)
6
9
8
C
Littman Jewelers
-
1.3
(1.3)
-
4
-
C
Maggiano's Little Italy
1
0.7
0.3
1
-
1
C
Man Alive
3
1.3
1.7
-
2
2
C
Motherhood Maternity
3
3.0
-
3
3
3
C
New York and Company
5
7.3
(2.3)
6
8
8
C
Osterman Jewelers
2
-
2.0
-
-
-
C
P.F. Chang's
2
1.7
0.3
1
2
2
C
Pac Sun
3
4.7
(1.7)
2
7
5
C
Papaya
-
0.7
(0.7)
-
-
2
C
Perfumania
1
3.0
(2.0)
2
1
6
C
Rogers and Hollands
-
1.0
(1.0)
-
-
3
C
Seasons 52
1
-
1.0
-
-
-
C
Spencer's
2
7.0
(5.0)
5
10
6
C
Strasburg Children
-
0.3
(0.3)
-
-
1
C
Tesla
-
0.3
(0.3)
-
-
1
C
The Capital Grille
1
0.3
0.7
-
1
-
C
Things Remembered
3
7.7
(4.7)
7
9
7
C
Tilt
1
1.0
-
-
1
2
C
Torrid
1
1.7
(0.7)
2
-
3
C
Underground by Journeys
2
0.7
1.3
2
-
-
C
Urban Outfitters
1
1.0
-
1
1
1
C
Victoria's Secret
8
9.0
(1.0)
9
11
7
C
Von Maur
2
0.3
1.7
-
-
1
C
West Elm
1
0.3
0.7
-
-
1
C
Wet Seal
4
6.0
(2.0)
5
8
5
C
White Barn Candle Company
2
1.7
0.3
2
2
1
C
Yankee Candle
5
6.0
(1.0)
5
8
5
C
Zales
4
6.7
(2.7)
4
9
7
C
Zumiez
3
0.3
2.7
-
1
-
Cluster
Brand
Sources: Retailer & Property Web-sites, Directory of Major Malls and Gerney Research.
- 34 January 2016
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V. American Place: Trade Area and Sales Potential
After reviewing the Indianapolis metropolitan area in terms of retail supply & demand on
a macro level, attention will now focus on American Place’s sales potential. Issues to be
addressed are:
Ø Defining the trade area for this proposed facility
Ø Estimating the sales potential for this proposed 600,000 to 700,000 square foot
retail, dining and entertainment facility.
5.1 Trade Area
Because of the competitive forces found in the North, South and Downtown submarkets,
the primary retail trade area (shaded in green on the following map) is primarily confined
to the Western Indianapolis submarket areas. The secondary retail trade area accounts for
the outsized capital investment and additional gaming and non-gaming amenities being
proposed and extends into the area shaded in yellow (Map 3).
Map 3: American Place – Estimate Trade Area
Please note that these retail trade areas have been partially defined using Point-of-Sale
(POS) data that has been collected from several of the major retailers that currently
operate at various centers within this defined geographic area. This trade area begins in
- 35 January 2016
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the vicinity of the western portion of downtown Indianapolis (western Marion County)
and extends through Hendricks and Putnam Counties, as well as the majority of Morgan
County.
The following tables (26 through 29), summarize the demographic, income, employment
and lifestyle segmentation characteristics of the primary and secondary trade areas and
compares them to those of the state and MSA. The key observations to take away from
these tables are:
Table 26
Primary Trade Areas, MSA, and State Demographic Comparison
Population, Household, Racial & Age
Characteristics
Indianapolis
MSA
%
Primary
Trade Area
%
Secondary
Trade Area
%
Indiana
Population Overview
2000 Census
1,658,463
398,576
1,092,150
6,080,488
2010 Census
2015 Estimate
2020 Projection
1,887,877
1,968,542
2,054,663
474,496
488,172
500,304
1,275,842
1,332,017
1,385,281
6,483,802
6,618,162
6,803,135
18.7%
22.5%
22.0%
8.8%
647,926
732,184
784,494
822,443
12.33%
2.46
153,020
178,711
187,622
196,590
10.00%
2.54
430,430
500,109
532,456
565,204
13.02%
2.43
2,336,307
2,502,154
2,632,900
2,723,682
8.85%
2.44
% Growth 2000 to 2015
Household Overview
2000 Census
2010 Census
2015 Estimate
2020 Projection
% Growth 2010 to 2020
2015 Average Household Size
Population by Race
White
Black/African American
American Indian & Alaska Native
Asian
Pacific Islander
Other/Multi Race
Population Hispanic or Latino
Hispanic or Latino
Not Hispanic or Latino
Population by Age
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 34
35 to 44
45 to 54
55 to 64
65 to 74
75 to 84
85+
Median Age
%
1,505,091
293,200
5,449
50,237
849
113,716
76.5%
14.9%
0.3%
2.6%
0.0%
5.8%
386,438
61,132
1,103
10,668
153
28,678
79.2%
12.5%
0.2%
2.2%
0.0%
5.9%
1,114,245
111,540
2,606
47,922
388
55,316
83.7%
8.4%
0.2%
3.6%
0.0%
4.2%
5,507,288
621,328
19,591
125,966
2,492
341,497
83.2%
9.4%
0.3%
1.9%
0.0%
5.2%
128,462
1,840,080
6.5%
93.5%
35,001
453,171
7.2%
92.8%
64,088
1,267,929
4.8%
95.2%
438,952
6,179,210
6.6%
93.4%
134,804
138,226
139,391
133,514
128,213
271,437
264,222
270,872
237,732
144,510
72,551
33,070
36.4
6.8%
7.0%
7.1%
6.8%
6.5%
13.8%
13.4%
13.8%
12.1%
7.3%
3.7%
1.7%
33,121
34,592
35,114
32,954
32,142
67,739
66,527
66,438
59,178
35,890
17,481
6,996
39.3
6.8%
7.1%
7.2%
6.8%
6.6%
13.9%
13.6%
13.6%
12.1%
7.4%
3.6%
1.4%
83,737
88,411
90,885
92,775
100,574
182,406
173,270
176,739
161,895
103,707
52,483
25,135
39.4
6.3%
6.6%
6.8%
7.0%
7.6%
13.7%
13.0%
13.3%
12.2%
7.8%
3.9%
1.9%
420,157
436,327
448,910
467,607
476,092
849,035
823,258
884,932
843,492
547,559
287,362
133,431
37.5
6.3%
6.6%
6.8%
7.1%
7.2%
12.8%
12.4%
13.4%
12.7%
8.3%
4.3%
2.0%
Sources: Scan/US, Retailer POS and Gerney Research.
Ø The broad reach of the primary trade area will enable American Place to
serve a population equivalent to nearly 25.0 percent of the total
metropolitan area. The total 2015 primary trade area was estimated to be
home to a resident population of approximately 488,200 persons.
Ø This population is estimated to have increased at a pace that exceeded the
metro-wide norm over the period 2000 through 2015 – at 22.5 vs. 18.7
percent.
- 36 January 2016
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Ø The secondary geographic trade area that is anticipated to support
American Place – which is likely to be attracted to not only the retail
component of this development but also to its entertainment and gaming
components – will include another 1.3 million plus persons.
Ø The racial make-up of this suburban primary trade area essentially mirrors
that of the entire Indianapolis MSA, while that of the secondary trade arae
looks to more mirror that of the entire state.
Ø The Median Age of this trade area is higher than the metropolitan area and
the state of Indiana. It’s Median Age of 39.4 is just over 3 years older
than the Indianapolis region.
Ø Per Capita Incomes within the primary retail trade area are only slightly
lower ($26,258 vs. $28,410) than the metropolitan area but are above the
state average (Table 27). Within the secondary trade area Per Capita
Income levels are actually higher than any of these three other geographic
areas – Indiana, the Indianapolis MSA, and the primary retail trade area.
Table 27
Primary Trade Areas, MSA, and State Income and Spending Comparison
Income & Apparel & Accessory-type
Expenditures
Income
Per Capita Income
Average Household Income
Median Household Income
Households by Income
Less Than $25,000
$25,000 - $49,999
$50,000 - $74,999
$75,000 - $99,999
$100,000 - $149,999
$150,000 - $199,999
$200,000 or More
Apparel & Accessories Expenditures
Total
Per Capita
Per Household
Indianapolis
MSA
%
$28,410
$70,834
$51,846
178,810
200,137
141,620
97,111
99,448
32,516
34,852
$1,389,301,725
$706
$1,771
Primary
Trade Area
%
$26,258
$68,148
$54,958
22.8%
25.5%
18.1%
12.4%
12.7%
4.1%
4.4%
36,480
50,522
38,486
24,714
24,679
7,079
5,662
$396,582,000
$812
$2,114
Secondary
Trade Area
%
$30,552
$76,235
$58,548
19.4%
26.9%
20.5%
13.2%
13.2%
3.8%
3.0%
114,042
129,071
97,319
67,256
69,913
25,542
29,313
$1,137,576,000
$854
$2,136
Indiana
%
$25,415
$63,332
$47,937
21.4%
24.2%
18.3%
12.6%
13.1%
4.8%
5.5%
660,571
706,579
494,792
324,155
288,027
80,716
78,060
25.1%
26.8%
18.8%
12.3%
10.9%
3.1%
3.0%
$4,472,315,760
$676
$1,699
Ø The reason for this increased level of Per Capita Income within the
secondary trade area is that this geographic region encompasses the
northern suburbs of the Indianapolis MSA, which are home to some of the
state’s highest income neighborhoods.
Ø Similar geographic scenarios are uncovered when considering both
Average and Median Household Income levels as well as the number and
percentage of the highest-income households – those generating greater
than $100,000 in annual incomes.
Ø Educational attainment levels, whether within the subject primary retail or
the secondary trade area, look to be in-line with metro and state-wide
norms, as do labor force characteristics (Table 28).
- 37 January 2016
(570) 546 1080
Table 28
Primary Trade Areas, MSA, and State Education and Employment Comparison
Education & Employment
Characteristics
Population Age 25+ by Education
Total Population Age 25+
No HS Diploma
HS Graduate
College, no degree
Associate degree
College degree
Graduate/Prof degree
Labor Force
Population, 16 years+
Pop 16+, in armed forces
Pop 16+, employed
Pop 16+, unemployed
Pop 16+, not in labor force
Indianapolis
MSA
%
Primary
Trade Area
%
Secondary
Trade Area
%
Indiana
%
1,271,395
143,868
369,476
265,251
99,576
257,351
135,873
11.3%
29.1%
20.9%
7.8%
20.2%
10.7%
320,246
35,343
103,270
69,930
28,835
57,055
25,813
11.0%
32.2%
21.8%
9.0%
17.8%
8.1%
875,637
72,674
238,433
172,478
69,146
201,760
121,146
8.3%
27.2%
19.7%
7.9%
23.0%
13.8%
4,274,607
530,781
1,467,000
910,329
349,941
648,482
368,074
12.4%
34.3%
21.3%
8.2%
15.2%
8.6%
1,491,935
1,175
945,307
54,599
490,854
0.1%
63.4%
3.7%
32.9%
378,766
152
243,247
11,045
124,322
0.0%
64.2%
2.9%
32.8%
1,052,034
610
670,999
29,286
351,139
0.1%
63.8%
2.8%
33.4%
5,044,232
2,485
3,031,232
180,611
1,829,904
0.0%
60.1%
3.6%
36.3%
Ø Within the primary retail trade area the percentage of households within
the most affluent Mosaic lifestyle group (Power Elite) comes in below the
MSA levels; however, as has been seen within each of the various
demographic categories that have been examined, when one goes beyond
the primary and into the secondary trade area this situation rapidly
changes – with more affluent households becoming the norm (Table 29).
Table 29
Primary Trade Areas, MSA, and State Mosaic Lifestyle Segmentation Comparison
Psychographic Lifestyle Clusters
Mosaic Lifestyle Segmentation
Total Households
Power Elite
Indianapolis
MSA
%
Primary
Trade Area
%
Secondary
Trade Area
%
Indiana
%
784,494
50,408
6.4%
187,622
4,062
2.2%
532,456
48,004
9.0%
2,632,900
109,677
4.2%
Flourishing Families
56,062
7.2%
11,668
6.2%
42,706
8.0%
102,091
3.9%
Booming with Confidence
54,633
7.0%
13,964
7.4%
38,256
7.2%
131,128
5.0%
Suburban Style
55,562
7.1%
17,441
9.3%
22,578
4.2%
126,605
4.8%
Thriving Boomers
53,027
6.8%
15,870
8.5%
41,249
7.7%
223,352
8.5%
Promising Families
41,621
5.3%
11,970
6.4%
28,197
5.3%
82,536
3.1%
Young City Solos
19,192
2.5%
961
0.5%
15,905
3.0%
17,292
0.7%
Middle-Class Melting Pot
10,511
1.3%
4,746
2.5%
5,232
1.0%
40,781
1.6%
Family Union
31,770
4.1%
11,813
6.3%
20,130
3.8%
227,414
8.6%
Autumn Years
43,258
5.5%
13,254
7.1%
31,950
6.0%
254,826
9.7%
Significant Singles
25,713
3.3%
3,379
1.8%
22,674
4.3%
77,234
2.9%
Blue Sky Boomers
36,047
4.6%
9,016
4.8%
25,666
4.8%
140,081
5.3%
Families In Motion
24,789
3.2%
7,241
3.9%
17,958
3.4%
190,999
7.3%
Pastoral Pride
13,566
1.7%
4,428
2.4%
11,583
2.2%
151,164
5.7%
Singles and Starters
127,072
16.2%
35,613
19.0%
96,622
18.1%
268,338
10.2%
Cultural Connections
11,489
1.5%
2,687
1.4%
3,994
0.8%
47,423
1.8%
Golden Year Guardians
57,349
7.3%
12,449
6.6%
47,010
8.8%
199,298
7.6%
Aspirational Fusion
36,427
4.6%
5044
2.7%
13,349
2.5%
88,830
3.4%
Struggling Societies
45,657
5.8%
4,265
2.3%
15,643
2.9%
190,256
7.2%
Ø Once beyond the most affluent household cluster group and into the midtier of affluence – with those households being Flourishing Families,
Booming with Confidence, Suburban Style and Thriving Boomers – the
- 38 January 2016
(570) 546 1080
subject primary geographic retail trade area actually exceeds the combined
norm, with 31.4 vs. 28.1 percent of these households.
Ø Overall, the primary retail trade area is oriented toward the more mature
household groups (Booming with Confidence, Thriving Boomers and
Autumn Years) and younger families (Promising Families, Family Union
and Families in Motion). Within the secondary trade area, the tone is
more towards affluence – with 36.1 percent of all households being
identified within the five top income cluster groups (Power Elite,
Flourishing Families, Booming with Confidence, Suburban Style and
Thriving Boomers).
5.2 Sales Potential
5.2.1 Analog Properties: Population, Income & Psychographic Comparison
Using our database of nearly 1,800 shopping centers located throughout the nation, a list
of five (5) that are considered to be the most comparable lifestyle-type venues were
selected. The basis for inclusion in this group of properties was that the 8-mile radius
area supporting these centers had to be relatively similar, as did the three key income
measures – those being per capita, average and median household. In addition, the
number of the highest-income households (those that generate greater than $100,000
annually) had to be in the ballpark of the number identified potentially supporting
American Place. Finally, the psychographic cluster groups that appear to best define the
affluence of the American Place support area were used as a final comparative set
(Table’s 30 & 31). The five lifestyle-type retail venues that were selected for this portion
of the analysis were: The Greene (Dayton, OH), The Promenade Shops at Saucon Valley
(Allentown, PA), Uptown Village at Cedar Hill (Dallas, TX), Eastwood Town Center
(Lansing, MI) and ABQ Uptown (Albuquerque, NM).
Table 30
American Pace – Analog Centers Based on 8-Mile Population & Income Characteristics
Shopping Center
Market
American Place
Indianapolis, IN
Per Capita
Income
Population
393,331
Analog Average
359,289
Variance
34,042
Index Value
1.09
$
$
$
Avg. HH
Income
22,434
26,632
(4,198)
$
$
$
0.84
Median HH
Income
56,060
$
67,097
$
53,458
44,007
(11,037)
$
(8,089)
(6,698)
0.85
0.85
0.84
45,369
HH w/
Income
>$100K
37,309
The Greene
Dayton, OH
350,461
$
29,278
$
67,779
$
53,729
47,200
Allentown, PA-NJ
351,043
$
26,249
$
66,981
$
53,547
42,709
Dallas, TX
355,840
$
25,176
$
74,009
$
61,983
45,428
Lansing, MI
281,728
$
25,568
$
60,970
$
48,228
32,341
ABQ Uptown
Albuquerque, NM
448,546
$
29,534
$
66,426
$
50,075
55,549
- 39 January 2016
(570) 546 1080
Table 31
American Pace – Analog Centers Key Affluence MOSAIC Household Characteristics
Power Elite
HH's
Shopping Center
Market
American Place
Indianapolis, IN
Flourishing
Families
Booming with
Confidence
Suburban
Style
Thriving
Boomers
Promising
Families
897
6,531
6,402
7,315
6,620
7,673
Analog Average
5,434
5,207
13,532
13,677
7,000
2,538
Variance
(4,537)
1,324
(7,130)
(6,362)
(380)
5,135
Index Value
0.17
1.25
0.47
0.53
0.95
3.02
2,095
6,318
2,329
The Greene
Dayton, OH
8,835
9,456
13,205
Allentown, PA-NJ
5,581
3,217
12,499
4,583
7,918
1,918
Dallas, TX
2,090
5,970
8,728
44,446
1,418
4,516
Lansing, MI
3,842
4,757
9,244
4,005
6,620
1,524
ABQ Uptown
Albuquerque, NM
10,222
6,883
23,656
1,674
12,044
2,194
When the index values of each of these variables were combined, it was calculated that
the 8-mile support area surrounding American Place provides for per capita/household
market support equal to approximately 0.98 times the composite norm – essentially the
same support that the composite for these five centers is afforded by their surrounding
populations.
5.2.2 Analog Properties: Retail Content Summary
Understanding now that the subject location provides potential tenants with essentially equal
surrounding market support as is enjoyed at these five analog locations brings one to the issue of
what tenants might be anticipated to occupy space at this location. In order to provide some level
of guidance to this question, tenant data were collected for each of the five analog properties
(Table 32).
Table 32
Analog Center Retail Content Summary
Fashion Tenants
Shopping Center
American Place
Market
Indianapolis, IN
Square
Feet
Fashion
Department
Stores
Total
Fashion
Tenants
-
-
-
A+
A
-
B
-
C
-
D
-
Fashion
Positioning
E
-
Distance
to Mall
-
8.00
4.29
Analog Average
523,000
0.4
45.8
0.2
3.4
7.6
12.8
8.8
13.0
Variance
274,386
(0.4)
(45.8)
(0.2)
(3.4)
(7.6)
(12.8)
(8.8)
(13.0)
1
67
-
3
10
22
10
22
Moderate, Large
5.66
3.71
The Greene
Dayton, OH
800,000
Allentown, PA-NJ
475,000
-
42
-
3
11
10
9
9
Moderate, Medium
4.42
Dallas, TX
725,000
1
40
-
-
1
15
13
11
Moderate, Large
5.52
Lansing, MI
395,000
-
40
-
2
6
10
8
14
Moderate, Medium
5.52
ABQ Uptown
Albuquerque, NM
220,000
-
40
1
9
10
7
4
9
Moderate, Small
0.33
From the above information, the following observations are provided in regards to the
overall tenant/merchandise mix at these properties:
Ø The average overall GLA of these retail/dining/entertainment venues
comes in at approximately 525,000 square feet – ranging from the smallest
(ABQ Uptown) at 220,000 square feet to the largest (The Greene) at
800,000 square feet.
- 40 January 2016
(570) 546 1080
Ø Of these five properties, two are anchored by fashion department stores –
those being The Greene (Von Muar) and Uptown Village at Cedar Hill
(Dillard’s). Of these two, Dillard’s (estimated at approximately $27.5
million) at Cedar Hill far out-produces Von Muar at The Greene (+/-$17.5
million).
Ø With the average number of tenants at nearly forty-six (45.8), and these
retailers, restaurants and entertainment tenants falling primarily within the
B, C, D & E-classifications of tenants, it seems fair to suggest that the
overall merchandise mix could be described as Moderate to slightly above
Moderate.
Ø Finally, one very real advantage that looks to be apparent when
considering the American Place location is that it is located further from
its nearest mall competitor (Circle Centre in Downtown Indianapolis is
8.00 miles straight-line distance) than is typical for these other analog
properties – which come in at an average distance of approximately 4.30
miles.
5.2.3 Analog Properties: Retail Content Breakdown
Seeing that only two of the five analog properties are anchored by fashion department
stores begs the questions as to what types of other anchor tenants are included in the
tenant mix at these centers to help create the necessary critical mass to attract both small
shop tenant retailers as well as consumers. What was found was that there is quite a
variety of mid-sized boxes to work on recruiting to American Place (Table 33). On
average, there are nearly five (4.8) of these retailers at the analog centers.
American Place
Analog Average
The Greene
Promenade Shops
at Saucon Valley
Uptown Village at
Cedar Hill
Eastwood Towne
Center
ABQ Uptown
Table 33
Analog Center Mid-Sized Box Retail Content
-
0.4
-
1
1
-
-
Books & Co.
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
Dick's Sporting Goods
-
0.4
-
-
1
1
-
DSW
-
0.2
-
-
-
1
-
Ethan Allen
-
0.2
-
-
1
-
-
Forever 21
-
0.4
1
-
-
1
-
Funny Bones Comedy Club
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
H&M
-
0.2
-
-
1
-
-
LL Bean
-
0.2
-
1
-
-
-
Multi-Screen Cinema
-
0.6
1
1
-
1
-
Nordstrom RACK
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
Old Navy
-
0.6
1
1
1
-
-
Pier 1
-
0.2
-
-
-
1
-
Schuler's Books & Music
-
0.2
-
-
-
1
-
The Fresh Market
-
0.2
-
1
-
-
-
Trader Joe's
-
0.2
-
-
-
-
1
-
0.2
-
-
1
-
-
-
4.8
6
5
6
6
1
Brand
Barnes & Noble
ULTA
TOTALS
- 41 January 2016
(570) 546 1080
Of those identified, it becomes rather apparent that several specific sectors/retailers
should be targeted quite seriously:
Ø A Multi-screen cinema (located at The Greene, Saucon Valley and
Eastwood) is likely first among this list as they not only attract consumers
on evenings and weekends but are also a favored co-tenant for full0service
restaurants. On the entertainment side of the equation, another use that
might be worth consideration could be a comedy club such as Funny
Bones that has been quite successful at The Greene in the Dayton, OH
MSA.
Ø A large-format bookstore was identified in four of the five centers (Barnes
& Noble in two, with Books & Co. and Schuler’s Books & Music in one
each) and they are well-regarded by both cinema’s and restaurants as a cotenant.
Ø A larger apparel offering is another retail type that is worthy of serious
recruitment efforts. Within this sector the more common players include
Forever 21, H&M and Old Navy. Retailers newer to inclusion in these
types of properties are LL Bean and Nordstrom RACK.
Ø Another retail sector that should be mentioned within this grouping of
mid-sized boxes is the home-oriented retail group. Within the tenant
rosters that were included in this analysis the two that were seen were
Ethan Allen and Pier 1. However, although not technically mid-sized
boxes players such as Pottery Barn and Williams-Sonoma could also be
included as smaller space users within this sector. In addition, other larger
space users within this sector might be Arhaus, Container Store, Crate &
Barrel and Restoration Hardware.
Ø Finally, yet another use that looks to provide added consumer satisfaction,
as well as strong co-tenancy, is a specialty grocery operator – such as The
Fresh Market or Trader Joe’s.
Referring back briefly to the importance of the entertainment component in regards to the
tourist component of retail that is associated with either adjacent or a nearby casino, as
American Place will be, in previous analyses that we have undertaken it was found that
these types of uses are becoming quite prevalent in today’s gaming industry (Table 34).
In the case of the four tourist/destination casinos that were examined, whether looking at
spas, multi-screen cinemas, nightclubs or blowing alleys, these have all become common
amenities within today’s casino landscape. Within the bowling concept realm, two
potential players that come to mind as distinct possibilities might be Lucky Strikes and
Pin Stripes. When considering cinemas, those that are of the cine-bistro type format
might prove of higher priority as they would match up well with the adjacent
casino/tourist consumer traffic.
- 42 January 2016
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Amenities
AnalogAverage
MoheganSun,
CT
Foxwoods,CT
ViejasCasino,
CA
TurningStone,
NY
Table 34
Representative Casino-Related Amenity Entertainment Uses
Spa
0.8
1
1
-
1
Cinema
0.8
1
1
-
1
Nightclub
0.8
1
1
1
-
Bowling
0.8
-
1
1
1
Sources: Property Web-sites and Gerney Research
Another critical sector for targeting is the full-service eating & drinking (Restaurants and
bars) group of tenants. In examining the rosters of the analog properties, it was
calculated that the average number of these tenants is in the range of just over five (Table
35).
American
Place
Analog
Average
The
Greene
Saucon
Valley
Cedar Hill
Eastwood
ABQ
Uptown
Table 35
Analog Center Full-Service Eating & Drinking Content
-
0.4
1
1
-
-
-
BD's Mongolian Grill
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
Bravo! Cucina Italiana
-
0.4
-
-
-
1
1
Brio Tuscan Grille
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
-
0.2
-
-
-
-
1
Claddagh Irish Pub
-
0.2
-
-
-
1
-
CRAVE
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
Elephant Bar
-
0.2
-
-
-
-
1
Fleming's Prime Steakhouse
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
Marcello's Chophouse
-
0.2
-
-
-
-
1
McCormick and Schmick
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
Melt
-
0.2
-
1
-
-
-
Mimi's Café
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
Mitchell's Fish Market
-
0.2
-
-
-
1
-
Noodle's & Co
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
P.F. Chang's
-
0.2
-
-
-
1
-
Panchero's Mexican Grill
-
0.2
-
-
-
1
-
Panera Bread
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
Razoo's Cajun Kitchen
-
0.2
-
-
1
-
-
Red Robin
-
0.2
-
1
-
-
-
Smokey Bones Bar & Grill
-
0.2
-
-
-
1
-
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
The Melting Pot
-
0.2
-
-
-
-
1
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
-
5.2
11
3
1
6
5
Brand
Bar Louie
The Pub
TOTALS
As can be seen from this information, there are only two (Bar Louie and Bravo!/BRIO)
that have been identified in at least two of the analog properties, suggesting more
regionality in the leasing within this sector. However, national brands remain critical as
such players as Fleming’s, McCormick & Schmick’s and P.F. Chang’s, etc. have all been
identified. Also of note is the inclusion of fast-casual players such as California Pizza
- 43 January 2016
(570) 546 1080
Kitchen and Red Robin within this list, as well as a wide selection of pub-type operators
– e.g. Claddagh Irish Pub, Elephant Bar and the Pub.
In today’s leasing world, it has become understood that a collection of four to six fullservice restaurants and bars can provide as much, or more, consumer traffic than a
traditional fashion department store. For example, while it is estimated that Von Muar
generates approximately $17.5 million ($145 per square foot out of their 120,000 square
foot box) at The Greene, based on data that we have been able to collect from various
contacts, the estimated combined sales at this property for Bar Louie, BRIO, Cheesecake
Factory, Fleming’s and McCormick & Schmick, come in at approximately $22.5 million,
or, over $550 per square foot out of just over 40,000 square feet.
A representative collection of small shop specialty retailers that come close to
approximating a composite created from the five analog properties has been compiled in
order to illustrate what might be anticipated at American Place (Table 36).
Table 36
Highest Probability Small Shop Specialty Tenants – Per Analog Centers
A
B
C
D
E
Apple
Ann Taylor
Aeropostale
Christopher & Bank
J. Crew
Banana Republic
Ann Taylor LOFT
Buckle
Claire's
Lucky Brand Jeans
Clarks
Carter's
Charming Charlie's
Finish Line
J. Jill
Crazy 8
Justice
GNC
Lululemon
Eddie Bauer
Kay Jeweler's
Jos. A. Bank
Pandora
Express
Lane Bryant
McAlister's Deli
Pottery Barn
Gap
Oshkosh
Sleep Number
Sephora
Gymboree
Pac Sun
Starbuck's
Williams-Sonoma
Journeys
Stride Rite
Sunglass Hut
New York & Company
Talbot's
Torrid
Victoria's Secret
Yankee Candle
On a very positive note, from a prospective tenant perspective, is the fact that of the
retailers listed in the above table – when cross-referenced with the results of the MSAwide retail tenant analog analysis results from Table 24 – it was found that twenty (20)
were identified as being both one unit or more short of anticipated metro-wide coverage
an well as being found on at least two of the five specific analog properties tenant rosters.
These retailers are presented in the following graphic and include several very important
brands in today’s retail environment – such as Apple, J. Crew, Banana Republic,
Lululemon Athletica, Sephora, Victoria’s Secret and Williams-Sonoma (Table 37).
Table 37
Common Cross-Referenced Small Shop Specialty Tenants – Per MSA & Analog Centers
Express
Journeys
Pandora
Ann Taylor
Gap
Kay Jewelers
Sephora
Apple
Gymboree
Lululemon
Torrid
Banana Republic
J. Crew
New York & Company
Victoria's Secret
Buckle
J. Jill
Pac Sun
Williams-Sonoma
- 44 January 2016
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American Place
Analog Average
The Greene
Saucon Valley
Cedar Hill
Eastwood
ABQ Uptown
Table 38
Complete Small Shop Specialty Tenant Inventories for Analog Centers
-
0.2
-
-
-
-
1
A
Apple
-
0.6
1
-
-
1
1
A
Bare Escentuals/bareminerals
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
A
BCBG MaxAzria
-
0.2
-
-
-
-
1
A
bebe
-
0.2
-
-
-
-
1
A
Brooks Brothers
-
0.2
-
1
-
-
-
A
J.Crew
-
0.4
-
-
-
1
1
A
Johnston and Murphy
-
0.2
-
1
-
-
-
A
L'Occitane en Provence
-
0.2
-
-
-
-
1
A
Lucky Brand Jeans
-
0.4
-
1
-
-
1
A
Lush
-
0.2
-
-
-
-
1
A
MAC
-
0.2
-
-
-
-
1
A
Teavana
-
0.4
1
-
-
-
1
B
Aerosoles
-
0.2
-
1
-
-
-
B
Ann Taylor
-
0.6
1
-
-
1
1
B
Anthropologie
-
0.2
-
-
-
-
1
B
Athleta
-
0.2
-
1
-
-
-
B
Banana Republic
-
0.8
1
1
-
1
1
B
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
B
Clarks
-
0.4
1
1
-
-
-
B
J.Jill
-
0.8
1
1
-
1
1
B
Lululemon athletica
-
0.4
1
-
-
-
1
B
New Balance
-
0.2
-
1
-
-
-
B
Pandora
-
0.4
1
1
-
-
-
B
Plow & Hearth
-
0.2
-
1
-
-
-
B
Pottery Barn
-
0.4
-
-
-
1
1
B
Sephora
-
0.4
1
-
-
1
-
B
Soma
-
0.6
1
1
-
-
1
B
The North Face
-
0.2
-
-
-
-
1
B
Williams-Sonoma
-
0.4
-
-
-
1
1
C
-
0.8
1
1
1
1
-
C
Ann Taylor LOFT
-
0.8
1
1
-
1
1
C
Carter's
-
0.6
1
1
1
-
-
C
Cacique
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
C
Charlotte Russe
-
0.2
-
-
1
-
-
C
Chico's
-
0.8
1
1
1
-
1
C
Crazy 8
-
0.4
-
1
1
-
-
C
Destination Maternity
-
0.2
-
-
-
1
-
C
Eddie Bauer
-
0.4
1
-
-
-
1
C
Evereve
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
C
Express
-
0.6
1
-
1
1
-
C
-
0.8
1
1
-
1
1
C
Gap
-
0.6
1
-
-
1
1
C
Gymboree
-
0.6
1
-
-
1
1
C
Hollister
-
0.2
-
-
1
-
-
C
Journeys
-
0.6
1
1
1
-
-
C
Moochie & Co.
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
C
New York & Company
-
0.4
1
1
-
-
-
C
Papaya
-
0.2
-
-
1
-
-
Brand Power
A+
Brand
Michael Kors
- 45 January 2016
(570) 546 1080
American Place
Analog Average
The Greene
Promenade Shops at
Saucon Valley
ABQ Uptown
Table 38 – Continued
Complete Small Shop Specialty Tenant Inventories for Analog Centers
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
C
Torrid
-
0.4
1
-
1
-
-
C
Victoria's Secret
-
0.6
1
-
1
1
-
C
Wet Seal
-
0.2
-
-
1
-
-
C
White House|Black Market
-
0.8
1
1
-
1
1
D
Aeropostale
-
0.4
-
1
1
-
-
D
Buckle
-
0.4
1
-
1
-
-
D
Charming Charlie
-
0.6
1
-
1
-
1
D
Chipotle
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
D
Franklin Covey
-
0.2
-
-
-
-
1
D
Icing by Claire's
-
0.2
-
-
1
-
-
D
Justice
-
0.8
1
1
1
1
-
D
Kay Jewelers
-
0.8
1
1
1
1
-
D
Kids Foot Locker
-
0.2
-
-
1
-
-
D
Lady Foot Locker
-
0.2
-
-
1
-
-
D
Lane Bryant
-
0.4
1
-
-
1
-
D
Oshkosh
-
0.4
-
1
1
-
-
D
Pac Sun
-
0.4
1
1
-
-
-
D
Simply MAC
-
0.2
-
-
1
-
-
D
Stride Rite
-
0.4
1
1
-
-
-
D
Talbots
-
0.6
1
-
-
1
1
D
-
0.4
-
1
1
-
-
D
Yankee Candle
-
0.4
1
1
-
-
-
D
Zales
-
0.2
-
1
-
-
-
E
Bath & Body Works
-
0.6
1
-
1
1
-
E
C.J. Banks
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
E
Champs Sports
-
0.2
-
-
1
-
-
E
Christopher & Banks
-
0.4
1
-
-
1
-
E
Claire's
-
0.6
1
1
-
1
-
E
Cold Stone Creamery
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
E
Finish Line
-
0.4
1
-
1
-
-
E
Foot Locker
-
0.2
-
-
1
-
-
E
GNC
-
0.4
1
1
-
-
-
E
Hallmark
-
0.2
-
-
-
1
-
E
James Avery
-
0.2
-
-
1
-
-
E
Jos. A. Bank
-
0.6
-
1
-
1
1
E
Kirkland's
-
0.2
-
-
1
-
-
E
LensCrafters
-
0.2
-
-
1
-
-
E
Lids
-
0.2
-
-
1
-
-
E
McAlsiter's Deli
-
0.4
-
-
-
1
1
E
Omaha Steaks
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
E
Portrait Innovations
-
0.2
-
-
-
1
-
E
rue21
-
0.2
-
-
1
-
-
E
Sleep Number
-
0.6
1
1
-
-
1
E
Starbuck's
-
0.4
-
1
-
-
1
E
Sunglass Hut
-
0.4
1
-
-
-
1
E
Tilly's
-
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
-
36.0
51
35
32
28
34
Brand Power
C
Brand
The Limited
TOTALS
- 46 January 2016
(570) 546 1080
5.2.4 Analog Properties: Retail Content Breakdown
With the analysis that has been completed, as well as the data that has been collected, it
has been determined that the American Place location provides very real potential for the
development of a lifestyle-type retail/dining/entertainment venue as a component of its
overall master plan – which is to also include a major casino facility as well as residential
and hospitality offerings.
When considering the overall sales productivity potential for this development site – from
a small shop specialty tenant perspective – it has been calculated that should the
developer be successful in attracting a similar line-up of tenants as has been outlined in
this analysis, a sales potential level of approximately $410 per square foot is projected as
a 1st Full-Year figure (Table 39).
Table 39
Small Shop Specialty Tenant Merchandise Classification Allocation & Sales Potential
Small Shop Fashion Tenants
Shopping Center
American Place
Square
Feet
Fashion
Department
Stores
Total
Fashion
Tenants
A+
A
B
C
Estimated
D
Distance
to Mall
E
600,000
-
36
-
3
7
12
7
7
8.00
523,000
0.4
36.0
0.2
3.4
6.6
11.0
7.4
7.4
4.29
Average Small
Shop Tenant Sales
$
$
410
420
274,386
(0.4)
-
(0.2)
(0.4)
0.4
1.0
(0.4)
(0.4)
3.71
The Greene
800,000
1
51
-
3
9
18
10
11
5.66
$
$
(10)
415
475,000
-
35
-
3
9
9
9
5
4.42
$
410
725,000
1
32
-
-
-
12
11
9
5.52
$
365
395,000
-
28
-
2
6
9
4
7
5.52
$
420
ABQ Uptown
220,000
-
34
1
9
9
7
3
5
0.33
$
490
5.3 Retail Component of Gaming: Case Studies
Major retail exists at The District at Green Valley Ranch (Las Vegas) as well as Mohegan
Sun and Foxwoods in Connecticut – with outlet shopping having recently being added at
Foxwoods (300,000 square feet) and Turning Stone (250,000 square feet in Upstate New
York) as well as already in existence at such other casino resorts as New Orleans
(Riverwalk), Viejas (San Diego MSA) and Sands (Bethlehem, PA) (Table 40).
Table 40
Analog Casino-Related Retail Centers
Location
Est.AnnualVisitors
SquareFootage
EstSales
Sales/SF
Sales/Visitor
MoheganSun,CT
9,700,000
200,000
$109,000,000
$700
$11.24
Viejas
5,000,000
255,000
$114,750,000
$450
$22.95
Foxwoods
9,000,000
100,000
$150,000,000
$600
$16.67
RiverwalkOutlets
2,000,000
250,000
$112,500,000
$450
$56.25
SandsBethlehem
8,000,000
134,830
$57,976,900
$430
$7.25
6,740,000
187,966
$108,845,380
$579
$16.15
Average
- 47 January 2016
(570) 546 1080
This is the sort of trend that has been happening over the years, where gaming facilities
have been trending to add more non-gaming amenities so that they can offer more wellrounded experiences. Many are becoming much more all-inclusive resorts rather than
simply casino facilities.
An important note to make in regards to overall revenues at these facilities – nationally –
is that non-gaming revenue, which includes money that patrons spend on food &
beverages, lodging, shopping and entertainment at gaming facilities, grew nearly three
(3.0) percent in 2012, from $3.3 to $3.4 billion. In Oklahoma, where all of the gaming is
Tribal Nation related, non-gaming gambling revenue grew by a slightly more rapid rate
of 3.4 percent to $510 million. For the state of Oklahoma the total amount of revenue
that the state received from tribal gaming compacts increased by approximately $5.0
million from 2012 to 2013 – from about $123.9 million during 2012 to $128.1 million
during 2013.
In terms of small shop tenancy and merchandise offerings in these properties – looking at
the full-price centers listed above (The District at Green Valley Ranch, Foxwoods and
Mohegan Sun) – it was found that the average number of national and large regional
specialty tenants came in at twenty-six (26), ranging from a low of eighteen (18) at
Mohegan Sun – which also houses a 300,000 square foot outlet center – to thirty-nine
(39) at The District at Green Valley Ranch (Table 41). As seen from this information,
there are five retailers that have been identified in at least two of the three centers – those
being Bath & Body Works, Brighton Collectibles, Brookstone, Chico’s and Coach. In
addition, the retail sectors that appear the most often include apparel (Activa, American
Eagle Outfitters, Anthropologie, Chico’s, Columbia Sportswear, DownEast Basics,
Gymboree, H&M, Hard Rock Store, Janie and Jack, Jos. A. Bank, Kate Spade, LOFT,
Soma, Tommy Bahama, Under Armour, Vineyard Vines and White House | Black
Market), accessories and jewelry (Brighton, Bulgari, Charming Charlie, Chopard, Coach,
Fossil, Francesca’s, Landau, Lux bond & Green, Pandora, Swarovski and Tiffany & Co.)
and cosmetics/fragrances (Aveda, bareminerals, Bath & Body Works, LUSH and
Sephora). In addition, there looks to be a solid representation of home-oriented retailing
as merchandise offerings at these properties – e.g. Anthropologie, Brookstone, Pottery
Barn, West Elm and Williams-Sonoma. Finally, full-service national chain restaurants
are clearly an integral part of the offering at these properties, with the likes of Johnny
Rockets, King’s Fish House, P.F. Chang’s and The Cheesecake Factory, having been
identified.
When cross-referenced against the retailers that have been identified as being potential
candidates for American Place, through both the metropolitan area and analog property
investigations presented in Sections 4.4 and 5.2.3, this comparative data appears to
indicate that the concepts and merchandise opportunities laid out earlier provide solid
guideposts for retail tenant targeting.
- 48 January 2016
(570) 546 1080
Table 41
Full-Price Retailers at Casino Centers
The District at Green Valley (39)
Anthropologie
Aveda
Balboa Pizza
barre3
Mohegan Sun (18)
bareminerals
Brewster’s Trading Post
Brookstone
Foxwoods (21 Full-Price)
Activa
Activa Kicks
American Eagle
Bath & Body Works
Bath & Body Works
Chico's
Bulgari
Coach
Carina
Brookstone
Godiva
Chopard
Charming Charlie
Chico's
Color Me Mine
Johnny Rockets
Landau
Coach
Columbia Sportswear
LUSH
Ecco
Lux Bond & Green
Fossil
Due & Proper
Momentum Trading Post
H&M
Elephant Bar
Robert Graham
DownEast Basics
Gymboree
Janie and Jack
Sephora
Hard Rock Store
Kate Spade
Swarovski
Misura
Tiffany & Co.
Panache
Jos. A. Bank
Tommy Bahama
Pandora
King's Fish House
Yankee Candle
Sunglass Hut
LOFT
Under Armour
Lucille's Smokehouse BBQ
Vineyard Vines
Lyfe Kitchen
Magnolia Lane
Ninush Design Studio & Furniture
Oil & Olive Food and Drink
P.F. Chang's
Panera Bread
Parque
Pottery Barn
Red Rock Running Co.
REI
Soma
The Coffee Bean & Tea Co.
The Walking Co.
Victoria's Secret
West Elm
Whole Foods
William-Sonoma
Sources: Property Web-sites.
- 49 January 2016
(570) 546 1080
Appendix: Introduction to Fashion/Lifestyle Retail
Classification
An analysis of 1,169 different retailers and their locations across the United States was
undertaken. These retailers have been found to be the driving forces behind the overall
sales productivity of the shopping centers and independent shopping districts in which
they are located (over 2,700 total shopping centers and independent shopping districts –
such as Rodeo Drive in Los Angeles and Soho in New York City – were included in this
analysis). Applying some concepts of social networking theory (in which the value of an
individual can be judged in part by who that individual chooses to associate itself with),
each retailer was assigned a score based on the level of selectivity it uses when choosing
its locations. Selectivity is determined by a retailer’s choice of co-tenants and is relative
to those co-tenants selectivity levels. The highest score for any brand was 2.24 for
Marina Rinaldi and Audemars Piguet while brands such as Boot Barn and Five Below
have very low scores. The average score was 1.00 with brands such as Alex and Ani,
P.F. Chang’s, and Tradehome Shoes hovering around that level. Based on these
selectivity scores, each retailer was then assigned to one of six groups – A+, A, B, C, D,
or E (Table I.1). Those with the highest scores (e.g., Oscar de la Renta, Christian Dior,
Giorgio Armani, and Cartier) were each assigned to Cluster A+. As should be expected,
these fashionable brands are not only the most selective, but they also tend to be the most
productive on a sales per square foot basis. On average, these retailers operate only 12
stores within the United States each while many of them operate as few as 2 or 3. In
total, 299 different retail brands with over 3,600 stores fell into this category and had
average selectivity scores of 1.79. Landing in Cluster A were the next 141 retail brands,
including Kate Spade, Marmi, and Pratesi. Combined, these brands occupy over 7,400
storefronts and have an average fashion score of 1.50. Cluster B contains 159 brands and
almost 11,000 stores. These include Abercrombie and Fitch, Trina Turk, Pottery Barn,
and Columbia Sportswear. There average selectivity score is 1.32. The third tier of
stores, Cluster C, is comprised of 194 retail brands operating over 22,000 storefronts.
These stores include such common mall and lifestyle center tenants as Gap, Macy’s, and
Victoria’s Secret. These stores had an average selectivity score of 1.13. Cluster D
contains the second most retail brands with 220. These brands operate over 14,000 stores
from brands like Claire’s, Justice, and Talbots. The remaining 158 retail brands make up
Cluster E. These retailers had an average selectivity score of 0.30 and operated over
15,000 stores. Similar to Cluster D, these stores are commonly found in traditional
enclosed malls throughout the country. Examples from this group are rue21, Eastern
Mountain Sports, and Dick’s Sporting Goods.
- 50 January 2016
(570) 546 1080
Table I.1
Fashion/Lifestyle Retailing Cluster Summary
Class
A+
A
B
C
D
E
Total
Brands
299
141
159
194
220
158
1,171
Stores
3,645
7,400
10,849
22,661
14,387
15,327
74,269
Avg. # of Stores
12.2
52.5
68.2
116.8
65.4
97.0
63.4
Average
Selectivity Score
1.79
1.50
1.32
1.13
0.85
0.30
1.00
- 51 January 2016
(570) 546 1080
fullhouseresorts.com

retail analysis - American Place

Transcription

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