Seix Investment Advisors Perspective
Transcription
Seix Investment Advisors Perspective
BOUTIQUE PERSPECTIVE Seix Investment Advisors Perspective ABOUT THE BOUTIQUE: Seix Investment Advisors LLC Seix Investment Advisors LLC (Seix) is a fundamental, credit-driven fixed-income boutique specializing in both investment grade and high yield bond management. Seix has applied its bottom-up, researchoriented approach to fixed income management for over 18 years. The firm’s success can be attributed to a deep and talented group of veteran investment professionals, a clearly defined investment approach and a performanceoriented culture that is focused on delivering superior, risk-adjusted investment performance for our clients. The Authors: James F. Keegan Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer Jim is Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Seix. Prior to joining the firm in 2008, Jim was Head of Investment Grade Corporate & High Yield Bond Management for American Century Investments. Jim’s High Grade team sub-advises several of the RidgeWorth Funds, including the RidgeWorth Investment Grade Bond Fund which won a Lipper Performance Award in 2009. He has appeared on CNBC and Bloomberg television, and has been quoted in a range of national publications. Jim has more than 25 years of investment management experience. Perry Troisi Senior Portfolio Manager - Liquid Markets Perry is a seasoned Senior Portfolio Manager focused on the Government Related and Securitized asset classes and a member of the Seix Investment Policy Committee. Before joining Seix in 1999, he was a Portfolio Manager at GRE Insurance Group, where he was responsible for all North American fixed income assets within the Group. Perry has over 20 years of experience in the investment management industry. Review of Fourth Quarter 2011 SIRP IN A ZIRP WORLD Capital market volatility declined over the course of the final three months of 2011, allowing for a pause in the treasury rally and, for most spread sectors of the bond market, a chance to regroup and recapture some of the lost ground of the third quarter. Using the VIX index (volatility of the S&P 500) as a proxy, the third and fourth quarters saw this volatility measure with a similar average of around 30, but the two quarters were almost mirror images of each other. The VIX began the third quarter very low and ultimately rose to levels not seen since 2009; the quarter’s move was from 15.87 on July 1st to 42.96 on September 30th. The fourth quarter then saw the VIX retreat to a 20.73 low on December 23rd before ending the year at 23.40. A trailing 10-year average for the VIX was 21.74 as of December 30th, 2011. This return to normalcy in volatility afforded the stock market a welcome reprieve, allowing the S&P 500 to advance nearly 12% and bring the yearto-date tally back in to positive territory (thanks to the dividends). This improved equity market backdrop was kindest to the riskiest sectors of the bond market, as can be seen by the impressive rebound in the high yield bond market. High yield posted impressive total and excess returns following the stressful and negative returns experienced in the third quarter. While total returns in the investment grade space were all positive in Q4, corporate bonds and CMBS (commercial mortgage-backed securities) enjoyed the strongest returns. For the full year, the effects of the third quarter are still evident as treasuries yielded the best return and excess returns for most of the spread sectors were still negative. Exhibit 1 provides all the detail. Exhibit 1 – Returns Rebound as Volatility Declines Q4 Total Return Q4 Excess Return YTD Total Return 2011 Excess Return Aggregate 1.12 0.29 7.84 -1.14 Treasury 0.89 n/a 9.81 n/a Agency 0.48 -0.09 4.86 -0.25 RMBS 0.88 0.24 6.23 -1.06 ABS 0.23 -0.28 5.14 0.52 CMBS 3.11 2.49 6.02 0.47 Corporate 1.93 0.82 8.15 -3.67 High Yield 6.46 5.69 4.98 -2.40 HY - Ba/B 6.01 5.22 6.09 -1.57 HY - Ba 5.61 4.77 6.84 -1.55 HY – B 6.40 5.65 5.39 -1.58 HY – Caa 8.42 7.71 3.31 -4.81 HY - Ca-D 10.51 9.86 -12.41 -19.64 HY - Loans 3.08 n/a 1.06 n/a 11.82 n/a 2.11 n/a S&P 500 Past performance is not indicative of future results. Sources: Barclays Capital, S&P Given the strong stock market returns over the quarter, the ability of the treasury market to still hold, serve and post a modestly positive return in Q4 stands out for its persistence. Most predictions for a robust stock market performance similar to this most recent quarter would have certainly been married to expectations for higher rates. In reality, the path that the broader markets took during the quarter allowed rates to withstand some early pressure and recover into the year end. The stock market’s quarterly gain was essentially an October phenomena as the S&P 500 was only up about four points between the end of October and December 30th. The 10-year treasury yield wandered back to 2.40% briefly on October 27th before recovering quickly and BOUTIQUE PERSPECTIVE SEIX PERSPECTIVE spending most of November and December below 2%. Exhibit 2 illustrates the October correlation between the rising stock market and higher yields followed by the subsequent decoupling and move to lower yields against a stock market that manages to salvage those heady October gains. Exhibit 2 – 10-Year Treasury Yield (red) and the S&P 500 (white) in Q4 Source: Bloomberg After October’s massive rally, the stock market had a downdraft in November while the 10-year yield moved lower with it, but the equity bounce from late November into the end of the year only saw yields fall even further. The macro backdrop that prevailed in the fourth quarter allowed for this persistent downward pressure on treasury yields. The European Sovereign Debt/Banking crisis remains front and center as the dominant wildcard for global growth in 2012 and with it the prospective returns for most traditional asset classes. Going into the end of 2011, clearly the rates market and the stock market were sending different signals into the new year. Global Uncertainty Dominates in 2012 The global economic outlook for 2012 remains uncertain. The outlook is replete with risks and lacks sustainable pockets of strength that could help offset or cushion a potentially sharp global downturn. Europe represents ground zero for all this uncertainty and there are few encouraging signs that the Europeans have moved closer to a credible solution to their economic and financial imbalances despite the passage of multiple fiscal adjustment programs throughout both the peripheral and core regions. Even the massive liquidity injections by the European Central Bank (ECB) Long-Term Refinance Operations (LTRO) to ease stress in the financial system are not seen as real solutions to the problems. It is more a “kicking the can” strategy that buys time, but how much time it will buy is unclear. Many analysts, investors, and policymakers make the mistake of viewing Europe’s problems strictly through the lens of a fiscal crisis. These analysts are quick to throw the U.S. and Japan in Page 2 the same category with Europe, but this analysis is flawed and has dangerous implications for policy formation and Europe’s economic outlook. Outside of Germany, many of the problems faced by the region are due to the Euro itself, whose value has been more tied to the strength of the German economy rather than to the weakness of many of the other European economies. As a consequence, the Euro’s strength has undermined the competitiveness of many European economies, driving economic growth dangerously low and with it the tax revenues that are the life blood of these bloated governments. The politicians in many of these countries either fail to recognize this reality or are in denial since they do not want to consider abandoning the Euro as a serious option. Instead, they have embraced the idea that fiscal profligacy is the primary cause of their problems and massive fiscal spending cuts have been and are likely to continue to be the prescribed medicine. The result of this will be deeper recession in 2012 for many countries, lower tax revenues, and little to no progress on reducing fiscal deficits. Structural reforms (i.e., labor market and pension) will be used as a mechanism to achieve an “internal devaluation” to address Europe’s competitive issues, but such measures – if implemented – will take many years to achieve the desired results. This approach will only deepen the regions’ problems economically, socially, and politically. A litany of different parties have been floated and refuted as the “white knight” that can save the region, but the sheer magnitude of problems always overwhelms the proposal. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has served as a lender of last resort to financially troubled emerging market countries. However, IMF programs cannot rescue countries that are trapped in unsustainable exchange rate regimes and solvency crises. The IMF’s involvement in Ireland, Greece, and Portugal predates the infection of the core by the periphery; and by virtue of their limited resources, 2012 will probably see the IMF role diminished as the magnitude of the problems in Italy, Spain, or France begin to flourish. China is another often referenced player with an interest in supporting the Euro region. History is often referenced given that China, in 2008, was a critical component that supported the global economy in a way few thought possible. Their government ramped up public spending and turned a blind eye to reckless lending by both the official and unofficial banking sectors. Local governments went on a spending binge as well, with ample access to cheap credit. Construction projects boomed and with it demand for raw materials and commodities soared. The ripple effects of these policies by China cannot be accurately measured, but in a world where inventories had been pared down to unsustainably low levels, the effects were critically important to the global recovery. BOUTIQUE PERSPECTIVE SEIX PERSPECTIVE China is now suffering the consequences of such aggressive action. Going into 2008, China’s main imbalance was that investment as a share of GDP was too high and domestic consumption was too low. Today, that imbalance is dramatically worse with even more overcapacity in the Chinese economy posing a serious threat to their economic outlook. Property prices are falling, economic growth is decelerating, and the Chinese equity market is under stress, probably reflecting these risks. This makes it highly unlikely that Chinese authorities will enact another massive fiscal stimulus effort that will only fuel even deeper imbalances. They will more likely cautiously hoard their resources to use as a safety net for their own downside risk given the uncertain growth outlook in their own region. Aside from China, the balance of the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India) and many other emerging market economies are all confronting problems of one kind or another related to the fall off in demand from Europe. The depth of the problems varies from country to country, but given their dependence on external economies for growth, a global slowdown in 2012 would pose tremendous risk to these emerging markets. While this may seem painfully obvious to many, it has not prevented some market participants or pundits to preach about “decoupling” and the potential for these economies to offer assistance to the Euro region and serve as a buffer to the growth slowdown caused by the crisis. While clearly in a better position to deal with these challenges today versus prior cycles, no emerging market countries, either individually or collectively, are prepared to be the engine for global growth. Repetition is the Mother of Skill Apart from the European crisis, we enter the new calendar year with yet more debate about even more quantitative easing. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), through a litany of speeches by its more dovish members, has made it clear that …we enter the new the prospect of another round calendar year with yet of bond buying, QE3 for those who are counting, is very much more debate about on the table in the first half of even more quantitative 2012. Trillions upon trillions of conventional and unconventional easing. stimulus and bailouts have been unsuccessful at generating a sustainable recovery, but more of the same is the only response our policymakers seem capable of delivering. While it is not effective in stimulating recovery, it has become very clear that markets have become somewhat addicted to quantitative easing, both directly and indirectly. This recovery has been the weakest on record in the post-war period and the redundant policy prescription only highlights the magnitude of the dilemma many developed economies now face. The U.S. and most of the developed world continue to attempt to: A.) Solve structural problems with cyclical responses; B.) Address solvency crises with massive liquidity injections and unprecedented accounting and regulatory forbearance; and Page 3 C.) Perpetuate a multi-year amortization or “kick the can” approach with the hope that ultimately confidence and animal spirits will reignite and jump start the economy such that sustainable, organic growth returns absent any further stimulus. It’s hard to call it anything more than a massive hope trade. The strategy is unlikely to work as it is predicated on consumers once again confusing debt with income and governments confusing debt-financed consumption with sustainable economic growth. Over the last few decades we watched the household and financial sectors lever up and create a shadow banking system that became as big, if not bigger, than the traditional banking system. Simultaneously, the economy morphed from a manufacturing and service-based economy into a leveraged financial service-based economy where higher asset prices (perceived wealth) became a function of debt and leverage rather than income and earnings. In the spirit of repetition, we want to rehash the nature of this particular economic cycle. The Great Recession was a massive balance sheet recession and the ensuing multi-year deleveraging cycle is in its early stages. Further complicating the future is the oncoming demographic wave the likes of which this country has never seen before as 78 million baby boomers become eligible for retirement over the next 17 years. The major problem for this demographic is that they collectively have inadequate savings with which to retire. Some of the critical implications of inadequate savings are a.) The baby boomers will have to work longer thus keeping wages lower than they otherwise would be, while further exacerbating the youth unemployment situation; b.) There will be pent-up demand to save rather than spend as they approach retirement; c.) Persistent demand for investments focused on income and return of capital (fixed income over equities); d.) Home ownership rate mean-reverting to its historical rate (64%) against the backdrop of an already troubling supply demand imbalance that could be further exacerbated by baby boomer downsizing. Short Term Memories: A Not Too Distant History If we revisit the early part of the 2000s again, there were many events and opportunities for policymakers and regulators to deal with the threat of leverage and moral hazard that was building up in the system. Coming out of the dot com bust as well as the Enron and WorldCom scandals, the Fed chose to keep rates exceptionally low, erroneously focusing only on goods and services inflation (CPI and PCE deflator) while ignoring asset inflation that was a direct function of the easy money and credit policy they had championed. The ensuing credit bubble manifested itself in a wave of financial engineering that introduced CDOs (collatalized debt obligations), SIVs (structured investment vehicles), and sub-prime MBS (mortgage-backed securities); with rating agency complicity the Street found a whole new way to turn BB assets into AAA assets. Given the easy money environment and its effect on valuations, demand for these new investment vehicles expanded rapidly and with every new turn of leverage the frenzy just ballooned and the new “originate to distribute” model was off and running. The final straw was the very unnatural extension of real estate pricing, creating a national housing bubble that economists argued was not possible. BOUTIQUE PERSPECTIVE SEIX PERSPECTIVE Why did policymakers, regulators, politicians and rating agencies look past the warning signals along the way and ignore the growing imbalances and problems? The simple answer is human nature and this can generally be traced by following the money. Asset inflation does give rise to the illusion of wealth and prosperity. Consumers feel wealthier as their 401Ks and housing prices rise; the mortgage refinance machine then made it easy to monetize this new found wealth and finance a lifestyle beyond their traditional means. Businesses in turn feel more comfortable expanding as consumers spend more and more; governments and politicians also benefitted from the increased tax revenues that afforded even more public spending. Sadly, regulators either stand aside for career advancement purposes or get pushed aside by politically connected and appointed superiors, while ratings agencies get blinded by the revenue and profit the cycle provides their business model. Talk about conflicted interests! By the time we got to 2007 the cracks began to appear and by 2008 the concept of “too big to fail” (TBTF) had matured into a beast that no one knew how to slay. The moral hazard of TBTF had its origins in the 1990s, with the bailout of a prominent hedge fund (Long Term Capital Management) serving as one of the earlier flirtations with the policy. TBTF at its core is an idiosyncratic Failure and bankruptcy concept that encourages moral are essential in a hazard, thereby preempting market discipline and allowing capitalist system. institutions to become too “systemic” and, as a consequence, their failure too problematic. Failure and bankruptcy are essential in a capitalist system. Without failure, the system degenerates into “crony capitalism” where the profits are privatized and the losses are socialized. By 2008, with the excesses of the prior decade beginning to unwind, TBTF led policymakers to save Bear Stearns while looking the other way regarding Lehman, only to reverse course again to bail out AIG. The inconsistent, seemingly ad hoc nature of the policy response in and of itself illustrated how TBTF had rendered the authorities impotent and incapable of addressing the disease (excessive debt) rather than the symptoms. What followed in late 2008 and 2009 was a litany of liquidity measures and lending facilities, essentially adding more debt on an already overly indebted system. Talk about mixed signals! Sometime in the fall of 2008, with policymakers staring into the “abyss,” the choice was made for an “amortization” strategy (Japan). Instead of letting markets work and find clearing prices for assets being shed by the weak and over levered, policymakers instead are trying to amortize the losses embedded in the system over as long a period of time as possible. As we have written in previous perspectives, the U.S. has already experienced a lost decade in terms of jobs, real median household income, stock prices, and housing prices. It remains to be seen whether we will experience a second lost decade, but based on policies that are being pursued by policymakers and politicians, the signs are not encouraging at this point in early 2012. Page 4 Rates Likely “Lower for Longer” Given the dramatic impact ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) has played over the past three plus years it is helpful to review some of the intended and unintended consequences of this policy. ZIRP Goals/Intended Consequences 1.Keep interest rates low 2.Ease financial conditions 3.Force savers/investors to take more risk 4.Encourage dissaving 5.Increase stock prices 6.Slow/stop the deleveraging Unintended Consequences of ZIRP 1.Very regressive policy that punishes savers and those on fixed incomes while subsidizing banks and financial institutions 2.Raises commodity prices like food and energy 3.Creates distortions in the economy and financial markets (misallocation of capital) 4.Discourages deleveraging and balance sheet repair 5.May actually reduce consumption as people need to save more for a rainy day/retirement 6.Reduces citizens’ standard of living as purchasing power declines Beyond our frustration with the policy, we find it equally frustrating how little attention is paid to the unintended consequences of ZIRP. Given the scale of experimentation the FOMC has embarked on over the past few years, market participants should be interested in the costs and unintended consequences that result from such policy. We offer this very limited list of ZIRP impacts/ distortions as a reminder that there is no free lunch and the policy imposes a hefty cost on a broad swath of people, all in the name of saving the financial system that has already been saved according to the experts. Each new calendar year historically kicks off with a debate about the level of rates. Similar to the expectations of the past few years, the 2012 consensus anticipates higher rates. While we have no investment strategies that rely solely on the direction of rates, we believe there are many real reasons why rates are this low that extend beyond the overused “flight to quality” bias. First and foremost, sub-par economic growth is the consensus over most forecast horizons as a result of the massive deleveraging that will continue for several years. As we enter the fourth year of ZIRP, traditional risk averse investors are being forced out the yield curve, pushing longer rates lower. Powerful demographic trends are forcing more investors to seek safe income as their investment horizon shortens. These same investors continue to flee the volatility of the stock market leaving the risk/reward profile to favor bonds; mutual fund flows since 2007 attest to this bias. Using ICI data, for the years 2007 through 2011 taxable bond fund inflows were approximately $797 billion; total bond Page 5 fund inflows were $884 billion. Over the same period equity funds suffered outflows of nearly $320 billion; domestic equity fund outflows were even worse at $469 billion (See Exhibit 3). Finally, regulation/repression going forward should continue to push large institutional investors towards treasuries in the name of safer risk-based capital requirements. The combination of these critical factors, in tandem with the overarching amortization strategy in place since 2008, makes the environment for low rates very compelling. We anticipate a 1.50% to 2.50% trading range for the 10-year treasury in 2012, with the yield curve remaining directional, meaning a steeper curve when rates rise and a flatter curve when rates decline. $60k Exhibit 3: Cash Flow 40k Monthly Net New Cash Flow BOUTIQUE PERSPECTIVE SEIX PERSPECTIVE 20k 0k -20k -40k -60k -80k 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Investment Company Institute Portfolio Positioning: Safe Income at a Reasonable Price (SIRP) 2011 was all about our security selection, as most spread sectors generated negative excess returns and we were overweight spread assets for most of the year. Having been cautious about the fundamental state of the economy and very wary of downside risks that a weak economy can easily fall victim to, our sector positioning was fairly defensive. The usage of structure in our residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) exposure and an underweight to bank and finance risk within our corporate exposure were critical drivers of performance in 2011; optimal positioning across the yield curve that anticipated a flatter curve also contributed significantly to returns. While the volatility that permeated the third quarter dissipated considerably in the fourth quarter, portfolio positioning stayed fairly constant since September. Unfortunately, we remain in a zero interest rate policy world, an environment that we are now told may be with us until the end of 2014! Given the importance of yield as a driver of returns, we continue to seek safe income at a reasonable price. While growth improved in the second half of 2011, the full year saw GDP only expand by 1.6%. Expectations for 2012 remain below potential, with the first half of the year median outlook anticipating about 2% type growth. Given this slow growth backdrop and the headwinds of a European economy that is probably already in recession, our defensive bias and desire for safe income still permeates our strategy. Portfolios remain overweight investment grade corporate bonds, although at a lower weighting relative to recent years, but we will add select high quality exposure through the new issue market when concessions offer opportunity. Corporate spreads are likely to remain volatile, but valuations in select names offer compensation for this risk. RMBS exposure represents our largest sector overweight. The portfolio construction, which still utilizes structure (CMOs) in lieu of current coupon pass-throughs, offers average life stability and convexity that enhances the return n Domestic Equity profile over a more index-like RMBS n Foreign Equity n Taxable Bond portfolio. Despite persistently low n Municipal Bond rates, prepayments remain muted and the sector offers attractive yield over such low treasury rates. We remain modestly “up in coupon” after reducing some of this exposure in Q3. Portfolios continue to be overweight commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) as well, but similar to Corporate Bonds, it Estimated is on the lighter side relative to recent Weekly Net New Cash history. The exposure remains largely Flow 2011 Jan in seasoned, well structured exposure 2012 near the top of the capital structure. Our core plus portfolios currently have a 10% exposure to high yield bonds, an allocation we have held since the sector came under pressure in August. We view this as a neutral position for a core plus mandate. The sector offers spread levels commensurate with the risk being taken and possesses a better return profile than some of the higher yielding sectors of the investment grade bond market, particularly financials. We continue to remain void the “government-related” sectors of the market, consisting mainly of agency debt (governmentsponsored entities, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) as well as sovereign and supranational paper. The sector overall has an asymmetric risk profile from our perspective while offering very little yield. The rate rally in 2011 was lead by the long end of the yield curve. Using 2s/10s as a proxy, the curve flattened about 106 basis points (from +270 to +164). Having a trailing 10-year average in the mid +150s, the curve is far more normal today than at any point over the last few years. Hence, our yield curve flattening strategy has been dramatically reduced as we enter 2012. Surely the curve can flatten more, particularly in this “lower for longer” environment, but the easy money from yield curve positioning has been made and we prefer to be more opportunistic should a rate spike create an unforeseen steepening in the curve. BOUTIQUE PERSPECTIVE SEIX PERSPECTIVE Page 6 In summary, markets are likely to remain very binary, oscillating between “risk on” and “risk off” as we ebb and flow with the cross currents of a synchronized global economic slowdown, a European bureaucracy attempting to save the Euro at any cost, and central bankers continuing to provide excessive liquidity (QE/LTRO) in a thinly disguised effort at raising/supporting asset values in the name of stability and growth. This information and general market-related projections are based on information available at the time, are subject to change without notice, are for informational purposes only, are not intended as individual or specific advice, may not represent the opinions of the entire firm, and may not be relied upon for individual investing purposes. Information provided is general and educational in nature, provided as general guidance on the subject covered, and is not intended to be authoritative. All information contained herein is believed to be correct, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This information may coincide or conflict with activities of the portfolio managers. It is not intended to be, and should not be construed as investment, legal, estate planning, or tax advice. Seix Investment Advisors LLC does not provide legal, estate planning or tax advice. Investors are advised to consult with their investment processional about their specific financial needs and goals before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk. Debt securities (bonds) offer a relatively stable level of income, although bond prices will fluctuate providing the potential for principal gain or loss. Intermediate term, higher quality bonds, generally offer less risk than longer term bonds and a lower rate of return. There is no guarantee a specific investment strategy will be successful. Past performance is not indicative of future results. An investor should consider the fund’s investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses carefully before investing or sending money. This and other important information about the RidgeWorth Funds can be found in the fund’s prospectus. To obtain a prospectus, please call 1-888-784-3863 or visit www.ridgeworth.com. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. © 2012 Seix Investment Advisors LLC is a registered investment advisor with the SEC and a member of the RidgeWorth Capital Management, Inc. network of investment firms. The advisor and its employees do not provide tax or legal advice. © 2012 RidgeWorth Investments. RidgeWorth Investments is the trade name for RidgeWorth Capital Management, Inc., an investment advisor registered with the SEC and the adviser to the RidgeWorth Funds. RidgeWorth Funds are distributed by RidgeWorth Distributors LLC, which is not affiliated with the adviser. Collective Strength Individual Insight is a federally registered service mark of RidgeWorth Investments. • Not FDIC Insured • No Bank Guarantee • May Lose Value RCBP-SA-1211