the danish property federation market statistics – vacancy

Transcription

THE DANISH PROPERTY FEDERATION
MARKET STATISTICS – VACANCY
COVERING THE PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT PROPERTY MARKET IN DENMARK
April 2016
Results
WEB REPORT
might adjust with a certain delay. At the moment, the
economic vacancy for investment properties is impacted
by market conditions, meaning that the economic vacancy is above the normal level.
• Decrease in office vacancy by with 0.3
percentage points
• In two years, the economic vacancy rate
for office has decreased by 4.4 percentage points in Copenhagen CBD
This goes especially for office, which over the last 15
years has had an average vacancy of approximately eight
percent, which is four to five percentage points below
the present level. It is therefore especially encouraging
that the economic vacancy for office has decreased with
0.3 percentage point in the last quarter. Hopefully, this
is the first sign of a future with more activity within the
investment property market.
• Decrease in the spatial vacancy rates for
all four sectors
• Even lower vacancy rates for residential
The economic vacancy
rate decreases with 0.1
percentage point
Increased activity within
investment properties
The economic vacancy decreased in April 2016 with 0.1
percentage point compared to last quarter, while the
economic vacancy is unchanged compared to last year.
The Danish society benefits from full employment and
full activity within the property sector. As there will
always be a certain unemployment, there will also be a
certain economic vacancy.
The decrease in economic vacancy compared to last
quarter is mainly due to office, which after having experienced an increased economic vacancy over the last three
quarters has now experienced a decrease of 0.3 percentage point to 12.7 percent. From the statistics, office
rentals included in both January and April 2016, we have
Two factors influence the level. One is the natural vacancy coming from moves and renovations. The other is
determined by the state of the economy and that it takes
time to adjust the supply with demand. While demand
can change relatively quickly, the supply of premises
Table 1. Vacancy rates in April 2016
Economic vacancy rate
Vacancy
(percent)
Quarterly
change
(percentage
points)
Annual change
(percentage
points)
Spatial vacancy rate
Vacancy
(percent)
Quarterly
change
(percentage
points)
Annual change
(percentage
points)
Office
12.7
-0.3
1.3
14.6
-0.3
1.0
Retail
8.2
0.2
-1.9
7.6
-0.8
-1.1
Industry
13.4
0.2
0.4
13.7
-0.7
-1.1
Residential
3.0
-0.1
0.4
2.9
-0.1
0.4
Total
9.7
-0.1
0.0
10.8
-0.3
-0.2
Source: The Danish Property Federation
Rem.: The vacancy rate covering all sectors also include rent and space for other commercial sectors and secondary premises.
Published by the Danish Property Federation
1
THE DANISH PROPERTY FEDERATION MARKET STATISTICS – VACANCY
COVERING THE PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT PROPERTY MARKET IN DENMARK April 2016
WEB REPORT
Lower spatial vacancy rates
more rental-bearing value going from rented to vacant
compared to vacant to rented. All things being equal, this
means more lost rent and higher economic vacancy. One
of the explanations to the decrease in economic vacancy
for offices is that the rent for rented office rentals has
increased, which shows a tendency for a total lower
economic vacancy.
The spatial vacancy decreased in April 2016 with 0.3 percentage points to 10.8 percent. This is the lowest spatial
vacancy since April 2014. Spatial vacancy decreased in
all sectors.
Spatial vacancy for industry at 13.7 percent is the lowest
vacancy ever measured for industry, now including nine
quarters. 14.6 percent of offices are vacant in April 2016
and this is a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to last quarter. Spatial vacancy is almost two percentage points higher than economic vacancy, meaning that
it is typically cheap premises that are vacant.
There is also a slight decrease in economic vacancy for
residential of 0.1 percentage point to 3.0 percent, which
is 0.4 percentage points more compared to the same
quarter last year. Residential continues to have a low
economic vacancy. Retail and industry both experienced
a slight increase of 0.2 percentage point compared to
last quarter.
Figure 1. Development in economic vacancy
Percent
Percent
25,0
20,0
15,0
10,0
0,0
Jan.
Apr.
Jul.
Oct.
Jan.
Apr.
Jul.
Oct.
Jan.
Apr.
Jul.
Oct.
Jan.
Apr.
Jul.
Oct.
Jan.
Apr.
Jul.
Oct.
Jan.
Apr.
Jul.
Oct.
Jan.
Apr.
Jul.
Oct.
Jan.
Apr.
Jul.
Oct.
Jan.
Apr.
Jul.
Oct.
Jan.
Apr.
Jul.
Oct.
Jan.
Apr.
Jul.
Oct.
Jan.
Apr.
Jul.
tOct.
Oct.
Jan.
Apr.
Jan.
Jul.
Apr.
Oct.
Jul.
Jan.
Oct.
Apr.
Jan.
Jul.
Apr.
Oct.
Jul.
Jan.
Oct.
Apr.
Jan.
Jul.
Apr.
Oct.
Jan.
Jul.
Apr.
Oct.
Jul.
Jan.
Apr.
Jul.
Oct.
5,0
2000
2001
2002
2003
Oﬃce
2004
2005
Retail
2006
2007
2008
Industry
2009
2010
2011
2012
Residential
2013
2014
2015
Total
Source: The Danish Property Federation and own calculations based on data from IPD Danish Property Index and Oline-ED statistics.
Anm.: Data from January 2014 and forward is from the Danish Property Federation. From 2001 to 2013, data is from IPD Danish Property Index has been processed
based on differences in level in 2014. In year 2000, office data from Oline-ED statistics has been included. Methods are not identical, which is why there is a gap
between October 2013 and January 2014. From January 2014 data is quarterly and before this annual. From 2014 there is a larger base of data.
2
Office
WEB REPORT
Vacancy rate in Copenhagen CBD is now
down at eight percent
The development in economic vacancy for office is moving in the right direction. The
positive trend in the economic vacancy for office is evident in most of the country.
Four out of five regions have experienced improvements since January.
In the Capital Region, it is most evident for Copenhagen CBD with an economic
vacancy of 8.0 percent in April 2016, which is a decrease of 2.4 percentage points
compared to last year and 4.4 percentage points in two years. The economic vacancy
in the Capital Region is 12.9 percent. The largest, quarterly decrease of the regions is
found in the Sealand Region. The vacancy rate of 7.7 has decreased by 0.9 percentage point compared to last quarter and decreased by 2.0 percentage points compared
to April last year.
In other words, owners of office properties had a rental percent of 92.3 of the total
rental-bearing value for office properties in the region, which is 5.0 percentage points
better than national average. The economic vacancy for office increased by 2.4 percentage points in the Northern Jutland Region.
Retail
Minor increase in economic vacancy
rates
Retail rentals have increased by 0.2 percent compared to last quarter, so the
economic vacancy is now 8.2 percent. In the Capital Region the economic
vacancy is 7.6 percent with an increase of 0.1 percentage point compared to
last quarter. Since January, the development in vacancy corresponds to the
national development with increases of 0.2 percentage point in Copenhagen
CBD and Other Copenhagen and area, while there is a decrease in vacancy
of 0.6 percentage point in Northern Sealand. In the Sealand- and Southern
Denmark Region development in vacancy is a little higher with an increased
economic vacancy of 0.4 and 0.6 percentage point compared to last year,
while the vacancy in the Mid Jutland Region now is the lowest compared
to the other regions with a decrease of 1.2 percentage point ending at 6.6
percent. This is especially due to a decrease in vacancy in Other Mid Jutland.
On the other hand, vacancy increased in the Northern Jutland Region with
4.0 percentage points since last quarter, and the economic vacancy is now at
12.3 percent.
3
Industry
WEB REPORT
Once again, vacancy increases a little
Industry is still the sector with the highest economic vacancy. Despite quarterly
decreases since July 2015, the vacancy has increased again in April to 13.4
percent. It is a modest increase of 0.2 percentage point since January 2016.
Spatial vacancy has decreased with 0.7 percentage point since last quarter and
1.1 percentage points since April last year. Since last published statistic, it is
now the Capital Region with the highest costs connected to industrial rentals.
A quarterly increase of 0.5 percentage point gives a vacancy level of 15.0
percent in the region including 15.3 percent in Other Copenhagen and area.
On the other hand, last quarter’s vacancy has decreased with 3.2 percentage
points in the Sealand Region. In the Southern Denmark Region the economic
vacancy increased with 4.4. percentage points since January and 1.3 percentage point since April 2015.
Residential
Decrease in economic vacancy rates
The overall picture for residential shows a continuous growth in demand for
residential. This is reflected in the low vacancy levels for residential throughout
Denmark. At national level, the economic vacancy has been decreasing over
the last two quarters.
Looking further back, there has been a decreasing tendency in the economic
vacancy for more than seven years, and in the same period the vacancy has
been lower than for commercial properties, cf. figure 1.
Regionally, the economic vacancy develops positive in the Capital Region, the
Sealand Region, and the Mid Jutland Region with a decrease of 0.2, 0.1, and
0.3 percentage point respectively. On the other hand, the Southern Denmark
Region and the Northern Jutland Region experience increasing vacancy rates
with 0.2 and 1.1 percentage point respectively. Copenhagen CBD is the area
that has had the most positive development with a decrease of 1.9 percentage
point compared to last quarter, while Northern Sealand has increased by 1.3
percentage points. This means that Copenhagen CBD has an economic vacancy
rate of 3.1 percent, while Northern Sealand has a vacancy rate of 4.0 percent.
4
N
Ø
V
S
WEB REPORT
Geographical
overview
Northern Jutland Region
Aalborg
Mid Jutland Region
Aarhus
Northern Seeland
Capital Region
Other Copenhagen
& area
Triangle
area
Seeland Region
Southern Denmark Region
Odense
Western and
Southern Seeland
Copenhagen CBD
Eastern Seeland
Source: The Danish Property Federation.
Copenhagen CBD
Christiansborg
Copenhagen CBD covers
the zip codes:
900, 1000-1559,
Tivoli
1562-1609, 1611-1614.
5
WEB REPORT
Table 2. Office
Capital Region
Copenhagen CBD
April 2016
(percent)
Quarterly
change
(percentage
points)
Annual change
(percentage
points)
April 2016
(percent)
Quarterly
change
(percentage
points)
12.9
-0.4
1.4
14.8
-0.3
1.2
Annual change
(percentage
points)
8.0
-1.0
-2.4
8.9
-0.6
-2.2
Other Copenhagen
and area
13.8
-0.2
2.5
15.6
-0.1
2.0
Northern Sealand
22.7
-1.4
2.8
24.1
-0.6
3.7
Sealand Region
7.7
-0.9
-2.0
10.7
-0.8
-1.8
10.0
-0.6
-3.5
11.9
-2.2
-6.3
12.5
-0.7
1.3
14.3
-4.2
-1.8
13.7
-0.1
3.9
16.3
0.4
4.3
15.1
0.1
4.8
17.4
0.6
5.5
8.1
-0.8
0.3
12.2
-0.8
0.2
12.6
2.4
3.1
14.5
2.6
4.2
Total
12.7
-0.3
1.3
14.6
-0.3
1.0
Odense
Mid Jutland Region
Aarhus
Other Mid Jutland
Table 3. Retail
April 2016
(percent)
Quarterly
change
(percentage
points)
Annual change
(percentage
points)
April 2016
(percent)
Quarterly
change
(percentage
points)
Annual change
(percentage
points)
7.6
0.1
-2.8
6.6
-1.1
-2.3
Copenhagen CBD
1.4
0.2
-1.2
1.3
0.3
-0.8
Other Copenhagen and
area
9.3
0.2
-3.7
7.4
-1.8
-3.7
10.6
-0.6
2.4
11.5
-0.6
3.7
Capital Region
Northern Sealand
Sealand Region
12.3
0.4
-3.0
10.8
0.3
-1.5
Eastern Sealand
11.6
1.4
-0.9
9.9
1.6
0.4
Western and Southern
Sealand
13.9
-2.7
-6.8
12.1
-1.8
-4.5
7.4
0.6
0.1
8.0
1.3
-0.2
The Triangle Area
8.6
0.5
-0.1
9.1
1.6
-0.3
Mid Jutland Region
6.6
-1.2
2.6
8.2
-2.0
4.4
Aarhus
5.1
-0.4
0.2
-0.9
Other Mid Jutland
9.7
-4.1
12.3
4.0
8.2
0.2
Total
4.3
-1.1
13.5
-5.1
-2.6
9.4
-0.8
-3.0
-1.9
7.6
-0.8
-1.1
*
*
6
WEB REPORT
Table 4. Industry
April 2016
(percent)
Quarterly
change
(percentage
points)
Annual change
(percentage
points)
April 2016
(percent)
Quarterly
change
(percentage
points)
Annual change
(percentage
points)
15.0
0.5
0.8
14.9
-0.1
-1.1
Copenhagen CBD
13.8
-1.1
2.3
26.5
1.1
2.6
area
15.3
0.7
0.6
14.1
-0.1
-1.3
Northern Sealand
13.3
0.7
0.5
14.3
0.4
-0.7
Sealand Region
14.3
-3.2
2.6
10.5
-7.5
-4.4
13.4
4.4
1.3
19.4
2.9
3.1
5.9
-1.3
0.8
7.2
-2.2
-0.4
7.8
0.0
-1.3
8.8
0.0
-5.8
13.4
0.2
0.4
13.7
-0.7
-1.1
Capital Region
Mid Jutland Region
Aarhus
Total
Table 5. Residential
April 2016
(percent)
Quarterly
change
(percentage
points)
Annual change
(percentage
points)
April 2016
(percent)
Quarterly
change
(percentage
points)
Annual change
(percentage
points)
3.0
-0.2
0.7
2.7
-0.2
0.4
Copenhagen CBD
3.1
-1.9
-2.2
3.0
-1.3
-1.7
area
2.7
-0.2
0.7
2.5
-0.2
0.4
Northern Sealand
4.0
1.3
3.0
3.8
1.2
2.5
Capital Region
Sealand Region
4.2
-0.1
3.2
5.1
-0.3
3.6
Eastern Sealand
2.6
-0.1
2.4
2.5
-0.1
2.2
Western- and Southern
Sealand
4.9
-0.1
3.4
6.0
-0.3
3.8
2.1
0.2
-0.2
1.9
0.1
-0.1
Odense
1.6
-0.1
1.3
1.7
-0.1
1.3
The Triangle Area
3.3
1.1
1.0
2.8
0.6
0.9
Other Southern Denmark
1.6
-0.2
-1.7
1.5
-0.3
-1.6
3.8
-0.3
-2.3
3.4
-0.3
-1.7
Aarhus
3.5
-0.4
-2.2
2.8
-0.4
-1.3
Other Mid Jutland
5.2
0.3
-2.7
5.1
0.2
-2.7
Mid Jutland Region
2.7
1.1
1.2
3.2
1.3
1.3
Aalborg
2.4
1.2
1.2
2.6
1.3
1.4
Other Northern Jutland
5.2
0.1
1.5
7.8
0.8
2.1
3.0
-0.1
0.4
2.9
-0.1
0.4
Total
Published by the Danish
Udgivet
Property
af Ejendomsforeningen
Federation
Danmark
7
WEB REPORT
About the
Market Statistics
This web report is published 27 May 2016. Next planned publishing is mid-August 2016.
The report has been based on data from: 2 + 3 Ejendomme, Aberdeen Asset Management, Alm. Brand, Andersen
Partners Ejendomsadministration P/S, AP Pension, ATP, Bevica Fonden, Carlsbergfondet, CEJ Ejendomsadministration,
Coller Capital, CS Pensionsfond, CW Obel Ejendomme, DADES, Danica, Dansk Sygeplejeråd, Danske Bank, DATEA,
DEAS, DIP, Ejendomsselskaberne Grønløkkevej 10, Fast Ejendom Danmark, FrederiksbergFonden, Færchfonden,
Grosserer Schiellerup og Hustrus Fonde, Gudbjørg og Ejnar Honorés Fond, Højgaard Ejendomme, Industriens Pension,
Jammerbugt Kommune, Jeudan, Jorcks Ejendomsselskab, JØP, KIRKBI A/S, Kramers Legat, LB Forsikring, Lægernes Pensionskasse, Lærernes Pension, Niam, Nordea Ejendomme, Nordea Liv og Pension, North Property Asset Management,
NREP, PBU, PenSam, PensionDanmark, Pensionskassen for Farmakonomer, PFA, PKA, Sampension, SEB, SPG Omsorg
DK1, Steen & Strøm, Taurus Ejendomsadministration, TDC Pensionskasse, Topdanmark, Tryg, Unipension, Valad and
Aage Larsens Boligudlejning.
The portfolios have approx. 65.000 rentals corresponding to an annual lease value of DKK 16.7 bn and 14.1 m m2. In
order to compare, the statistical base in April 2015 was a lease value of DKK 13.6 bn and 12.2 m m2.
The calculation of the economic vacancy rate is based on the actual rent. Thus, economic vacancy is defined as the
sum of actual rent in vacant rentals divided by the sum of actual rent for rented and vacant rentals in the statistic.
The Market Statistics is based on quarterly processed property data for rentals and vacancies within the period in
question. This web report has been closed as per 31 March 2016 and is called April 2016. The quarterly change is
from April 2016 (closed as per 31 March 2016) compared to January 2016 (closed as per 31 December 2015). The
annual change is from April 2016 (closed as per 31 March 2016) compared to April 2015 (closed as per 31 March
2015).
We have chosen not to publish data, where the data is not sufficient to give a valid and representative result or in
combinations where only one or few portfolios are represented.
For further information regarding this web report, please contact Chief Economist Morten Marott Larsen,
[email protected], phone +45 28 45 56 51.
8

the danish property federation market statistics – vacancy

Transcription

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