The U.S. Plastics Industry – A Bellwether For American Manufacturing
Transcription
The U.S. Plastics Industry – A Bellwether For American Manufacturing
The U.S. Plastics Industry – A Bellwether For American Manufacturing December 2, 2015 Michael Taylor Vice President, International Affairs and Trade Agenda Defining the U.S. Plastics Industry Shale Gas as a Game Changer The State of the Industry Domestically Globally Q&A Defining The U.S. Plastics Industry Plastic Materials And Resins NAICS 325211 Upstream Goods and Services Plastics Machinery Plastic Products Gov’t DocuMented Plastic Products NAICS 3261 & 325991 NAICS 3332201 Molds for Plastics NAICS 33351105 Captive Plastic Products Plastics Manufacturing Industry plus Captive Plastic Products Plastics Industry Full Impact of Plastics Source: SPI “Size and Impact of the Plastics Industry on the U.S. Economy” (2015) Plastic Materials And Products Wholesaling NAICS 424610 Downstream Using Industries End Users, Including Consumers, Businesses And Government Agencies Total Impact Of The Plastics Industry On The U.S. Economy Plastic Materials and Resins 66,100 Jobs $96.3 B Upstream Goods and Services Plastics Machinery 779,500 Jobs $156.3 B 11,300 Jobs $3.4 B Molds for Plastics 15,800 Jobs $2.9 B Plastic Products Gov’t Documented Plastic Products 607,300 Jobs $206.3 B Plastic Materials and Products Wholesaling 33,400 Jobs $48.5 B Downstream Using Industries End Users, Including Consumers, Businesses and Government Agencies Captive Plastic Products 205,900 Jobs $70.0 B Sectors Quantified Upstream Impacts Jobs and Shipments Given for Each Segment: Total Jobs = 1,719,300 Total Shipments = $583.7 Billion Plastics Industry Source: SPI “Size and Impact of the Plastics Industry on the U.S. Economy” (2015) Game Changers Could Raise U.S. GDP By 2020 Natural Gas Prices Have Decoupled From Oil Prices Key To North American Petrochemical Competitiveness Anticipated Wave Of Plastics Industry Investment By Segment Source: American Chemistry Council Shale Energy: Economic Contribution To Manufacturing Economic Contribution Summary Employment Total Manufacturing Aluminum Steel Plastics* Fertilizers Value Added ($M) Total Manufacturing Aluminum Steel Plastics* Fertilizers Labor Income ($M) Total Manufacturing Aluminum Steel Plastics* Fertilizers 2012 2015 2020 2025 303,383 1,171 19,978 8,974 506 395,298 1,484 23,610 12,878 899 464,897 1,558 23,460 14,948 4,851 522,798 1,693 26,242 16,438 5,805 36,750 147 3,166 768 75 48,776 189 3,704 1,098 131 62,035 204 3,619 1,282 688 71,080 223 4,024 1,414 822 23,826 101 2,105 523 50 31,558 130 2,455 739 88 39,355 140 2,389 868 460 44,872 153 2,658 961 550 Includes NAICS Code 3261 (plastics); does not include rubber (3262) or resins (3252). Source: IHS Added Industrial Production As A Result Of Shale Energy Development 2012 2020 Iron and Steel Products 2.2% Resins and Synthetic Materials 1.5% Plastics and Rubber Products 1.5% Fabricated Metal Products 1.4% Agricultural Metals 1.2% Nonmetalic Minerals 1.2% Petroleum and Coal Products Machinery Total Manufacturing Average Source: IHS 6.7% 1.7% Basic Organic Chemicals 1.3% 7.4% 6.0% 8.1% 7.1% 4.1% 9.5% 4.6% 3.2% 4.8% 6.9% 3.5% 1.0% 0.4% 2025 7.7% 4.1% 5.8% 6.5% 3.3% 4.0% 3.5% 3.9% The U.S. Plastics Industry In 2014… • 3rd largest industry in U.S. • Record-breaking domestic demand Up 6.0% to $298.3 billion • Shipped more than $427.3 billion in goods • Employed 940,000 people • Operated 16,806 facilities in every U.S. state U.S. Demand For Plastics Sets New High Level Apparent Consumption = Shipments + Imports – Exports $350 $300 $ in billions $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Machinery Source: SPI “Global Business Trends” (2015) Molds Plastic Products Resin Final Consumption Of Plastic Products 2014 Wholesale and Retail Trade 5.6% Other Durables 11.9% Funiture & Related 2.4% Health Services 7.4% Transportation Equipment 12.5% Food Service & Drinking Places 3.9% Other Non-Durables 6.4% Other Services 16.8% Plastic Products 15.1% Food,Tobacco & Spirits 9.1% Source: SPI “Size & Impact of the Plastics Industry on the U.S. Economy” (2015) Construction 9.0% U.S. TOTAL: $260.8 BILLION U.S. Produced Goods U.S. Produced Goods Retain Significant Market Share in the Industry Segments 100% % Share 80% 79.6% 85.1% 82.7% 60% 59.7% 41.0% 40% 20% 0% Resins Source: SPI “Global Business Trends” (2015) Products Machinery Molds Total Industry Plastics Have Historically Grown Faster Than All Manufacturing • Plastics manufacturing employment grew 0.3 percent per year since 1980 • The value of manufactured shipments grew by 2.6 percent per year • Real value added grew 2.3 percent per year • Productivity grew by 2.3 percent per year Source: SPI “Size and Impact of the Plastics Industry on the U.S. Economy” (2015) Comparative Growth Rates 1980 - 2014 Plastics Mfg All Mfg Employment 0.3% -1.3% Real Shipments 2.6% 0.8% Real Value Added 2.3% 0.8% Productivity Growth 2.3% 2.1% Five-Year Running Productivity Growth 1985-2014 Source: SPI “Size and Impact of the Plastics Industry on the U.S. Economy” (2015) Real Value Of Shipments Comparative Growth Rates 1980-2014 300 250 200 150 100 50 1980 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2014 Plastics Manufacturing Industry Source: SPI “Size and Impact of the Plastics Industry on the U.S. Economy” (2015) All Manufacturing Industries Real Value Added Comparative Growth Rates 1980-2014 250 230 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 50 1980 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2014 Plastics Manufacturing Industry Source: SPI “Size and Impact of the Plastics Industry on the U.S. Economy” (2015) All Manufacturing Industries Employment Comparative Growth Rate 1980-2014 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 1980 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2014 Plastics Manufacturing Industry Source: SPI “Size and Impact of the Plastics Industry on the U.S. Economy” (2015) All Manufacturing Industries Plastics Industry Employment By Segment 2014 Wholesale (424610) 3.6% Captive Plastics Products 21.9% Molds for Plastics (33351105) 1.7% Plastics Working Machinery (3332201) 1.2% All Other 50.5% Plastics Materials & Resins (325211) 7.0% Plastics Bags (326111) 2.6% Plastics (Except Pkg) Film & Sheet (326113) 4.2% Urethane & Other Foam Products (326150) 2.8% Plastics Bottles (326160) 3.7% Source: SPI “Size and Impact of the Plastics Industry on the U.S. Economy” (2015) U.S. TOTAL: 939,855 Plastics Industry Employment By State 2014 All Others 42.0% New York 3.3% North Carolina 3.9% Wisconsin 4.2% Texas 8.2% Pennsylvania 5.1% Indiana 5.2% Illinois 5.4% Source: SPI “Size and Impact of the Plastics Industry on the U.S. Economy” (2015) California 7.9% Michigan 7.1% Ohio 7.8% U.S. TOTAL: 939,855 Plastics Industry Employment 2014 Breakdown By State Rank State Plastics Employment 1 Texas 77,000 2 California 73,800 3 Ohio 73,700 4 Michigan 66,500 5 Illinois 50,600 6 Indiana 48,800 7 Pennsylvania 48,100 8 Wisconsin 39,200 9 North Carolina 36,300 10 New York 30,700 All Others 395,200 Source: SPI “Size and Impact of the Plastics Industry on the U.S. Economy” (2015) Texas #6 Best State For Business Gross State Product $1,648 Billion At a Glance Forbes Lists Population: 27,187,700 Governor: Greg Abbott Median Household Income: $53,254 Job Growth (2015): 2.1% Cost of Doing Business: 8% below national average College Attainment: 27.8% Net Migration (2014): 239,100 Moody's Bond Rating: Aaa #6 Best States for Business #10 in Business Costs #8 in Labor Supply #21 in Regulatory Environment #1 in Economic Climate #8 in Growth Prospects #31 in Quality of Life California #32 Best State For Business Gross State Product $2,312 Billion At a Glance Forbes Lists Population: 38,992,100 Governor: Jerry Brown Median Household Income: $61,750 Job Growth (2015): 2.8% Cost of Doing Business: 11.5% above national average College Attainment: 31.8% Net Migration (2014): 129,200 Moody's Bond Rating: Aa3 #32 Best States for Business #42 in Business Costs #17 in Labor Supply #48 in Regulatory Environment #11 in Economic Climate #5 in Growth Prospects #30 in Quality of Life Plastics Industry Employment 2014 States With Highest Plastics Concentration Source: SPI “Size and Impact of the Plastics Industry on the U.S. Economy” (2015) State Rankings Comparison 2014 Industry Employment Plastics Concentration Texas Indiana California Michigan Ohio Ohio Michigan Wisconsin Illinois Kentucky Indiana South Carolina Pennsylvania Alabama Wisconsin Tennessee North Carolina North Carolina New York Iowa Source: SPI “Size and Impact of the Plastics Industry on the U.S. Economy” (2015) Plastic Is The Material Of Choice For The Environment Plastic Packaging Help Reduce The Amount Of Materials Used • Ecolean Liquid Packaging: These plastic pouches used for liquids such as milk and juice can cut packaging weight by more than 50 percent. Flat as an envelope when not filled, they take up little space in transit to food companies and when discarded. Made with polypropylene and polyethylene plastic, the pouches use as much as 85 percent less energy to manufacture than conventional packaging, according to Ecolean. • Bertolli® Pasta Sauce Pouches: These microwavable pouches use 70 percent less material compared to glass jars and take up significantly less space in trucks, especially when shipping unfilled packaging. Made from plastics and other materials, one truckload of unfilled pouches equals 25 truckloads of unfilled jars, leading to less energy use and fewer emissions. • Eco Pack Green Box: The Eco Pack is an innovative, reusable container for shipping and displaying produce, meat, baked goods and other foods. An easy-to-assemble plastic frame and plastic sleeves create a durable, stackable flat or tray that is half the weight of cardboard. According to the manufacture, Eco Packs use up to 90 percent less energy than existing packaging and fit into existing distribution methods (pallets, containers, trucks), from farm to store. What Does A Life Cycle Analysis Tell Us… Plastic bags are greener than paper bags, disposable plastic cups have fewer impacts than reusable ceramic mugs, and owning a dog is worse than driving an SUV. David Tyler is a chemistry professor at the University of Oregon. 2014 Trade Statistics In 2014, the U.S. plastics industry exported goods valued at $62.1 billion, up 3.1 percent from 2013 RESINS $35.1B 1.8% PLASTICS PRODUCTS $25.0B 5.1% MACHINERY $1.5B 7.7% $528.3M 10.1% MOLDS Source: SPI “Global Business Trends” (2015) Positive trade balance of $10.4 billion $51.7B 7.7% Top Industry Export Markets $30 Top Plastics Industry Export Markets 2014 All Others $23.5 billion Mexico $15.8 billion Canada $13.2 billion China $5.2 billion Belgium $2.4 billion Brazil $2.1 billion Total $62.1 billion $20 $15 $10 $5 Mexico Canada China Source: SPI “Global Business Trends” (2015) Belgium Brazil 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 $0 2002 U.S. $ Billions $25 All Others Opening Markets To The U.S. Plastics Industry Transatlantic Trade & Investment Partnership (TTIP) Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) • 2014: U.S. plastics industry exports to the 11 TPP countries were more Likely to be Signed in NZ than $34B • Since 2000: plastics exports to TPP countries increased more than 91% • 2014: plastics industry trade surplus with TPP countries was $13.7B February 2016 11th Round Miami Oct 19-23 • A high-standard TTIP would advance trade and investment liberalization and address regulatory and other non-tariff barriers • Based on 2011 trade flows, the U.S. plastics industry would be one of the top benefiting sectors with a total potential tariff savings of $465M U.S. Plastics Industry Trade Balance By Segment 2000-2014 25 Billions of U.S. Dollars 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 2000 2002 Resins Source: SPI “Global Business Trends” (2015) 2004 2006 Plastic Products 2008 2010 Molds 2012 Machinery 2014 U.S. Plastics Industry Trade Balance By Segment For FTA Partners 2000-2014 12 Billions of U.S. Dollars 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 2000 2002 Resins Source: SPI “Global Business Trends” (2015) 2004 2006 Plastic Products 2008 2010 Molds 2012 Machinery 2014 Growth Of Plastics – Industry Exports 15% 10% 6.3% 5% 5.2% 4.9% 7.0% 6.3% 5.9% 4.8% 3.9% 3.5% 4.0% 4.2% 3.1% 2.6% 3.1% 2.7% 0.3% 0% -0.03% -2.8% -5% -4.6% -7.5% -10% NAFTA BRIC Free Trade Agreement Countries -8.5% Asia 2012 Source: SPI “Global Business Trends” (2015) 2013 EU28 2014 Latin America TOTAL Top Export Growth Markets For The U.S. Plastics Industry Percentage Change 2013 to 2014 Percentage Change 2014 YTD to 2015 YTD Cameroon 126.0% 32.6% Slovenia 82.1% 65.8% Angola 74.5% 23.0% Qatar 58.4% 7.5% Sweden 26.8% 40.4% Poland 21.3% 10.3% Jamaica 14.6% 2.1% Vietnam 14.5% 14.1% Dominican Republic 13.2% 1.1% Switzerland 7.9% 8.4% Top Export Growth Markets For U.S. Resin Percentage Change 2013 to 2014 Percentage Change 2014 YTD to 2015 YTD Sweden 30.1% 27.0% Vietnam 14.3% 20.2% Bahrain 9.6% 3.3% Thailand 7.5% 16.1% Top Export Growth Markets For U.S. Plastic Products Percentage Change 2013 to 2014 Percentage Change 2014 YTD to 2015 YTD Nigeria 108.6% 105.6% Jamaica 35.1% 5.6% Netherlands 26.3% 3.3% Turkey 21.3% 23.3% Poland 20.5% 9.2% Qatar 19.3% 7.2% UAE 12.4% 2.6% Costa Rica 11.3% 4.6% Saudi Arabia 11.2% 9.0% Japan 11.2% 3.8% Top Export Growth Markets For U.S. Plastics Machinery Percentage Change 2013 to 2014 Percentage Change 2014 YTD to 2015 YTD Saudi Arabia 61.5% 14.5% France 27.9% 17.6% Germany 24.9% 10.1% Hong Kong 20.9% 9.4% Canada 0.2% 6.8% Top Export Growth Markets For U.S. Molds for Plastics Percentage Change 2013 to 2014 Percentage Change 2014 YTD to 2015 YTD Indonesia 1313.8% 104.8% Hungary 1181.7% 799.1% Colombia 208.4% 12.1% Malaysia 42.6% 139.2% Switzerland 37.4% 27.0% South Korea 27.7% 59.4% Australia 26.2% 0.5% Plastics Market Watch Packaging • To be released in mid-December Healthcare & Medical Devices: • Released Fall 2015 Automotive & Transportation • Released Spring 2015 Sign up for a copy today: www.plasticsindustry.org/marketwatch Coming next: Building & Construction (Jan 2016) The U.S. Plastics Industry – A Bellwether For American Manufacturing Michael Taylor Vice President, International Affairs and Trade [email protected] 202-974-5232