Pay TV Market Share
Transcription
Pay TV Market Share
PT MNC Sky Vision Tbk. This presentation is strictly confidential and may not be copied, published, distributed or transmitted. This presentation has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not an offer or invitation to buy or sell any securities, nor shall part, or all, of this presentation form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or investment decision in relation to any securities. There will be no public offering of securities in the United States, Canada, Japan or other jurisdictions absent registration or an exemption from registration under the securities laws of the relevant jurisdiction. The information in this presentation is being provided by the company. The joint lead managers make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information in this presentation, and nothing in this presentation is, or shall be relied upon as, a promise or representation by the joint lead managers. This presentation contains forward-looking statements based on the currently held beliefs and assumptions of the management of PT MNC Sky Vision Tbk, which are expressed in good faith and, in their opinion, reasonable. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, which may cause the actual results, financial condition, performance, or achievements of PT MNC Sky Vision Tbk or industry results, to differ materially from the results, financial condition, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Given these risks, uncertainties and other factors, recipients of this document are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. PT MNC Sky Vision Tbk disclaims any obligation to update these forward-looking statements to reflect future events or developments. Indonesia’s pay TV market is estimated to reach almost 8 million subscribers by 2023, equaling to only 17% of TV households 2x the size of 2013 In thousand subscribers 9,000 Subs %Pen/TV-HH 8,000 14% 7,000 11% 6,000 15% 16% 16% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 12% 12% 9% 7% 5,000 7% 5% 4,000 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3,000 4,708 2,000 5,308 5,831 6,313 6,718 7,023 7,272 7,483 7,667 2% 4,008 -3% 3,175 2,437 1,000 453 637 739 868 1,125 1,666 - -8% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E Source: Media Partners Asia 4 Population (2012) A Young Population : 80% - Below 50yr 3% Millions 1,361 What are the macro drivers? A large & young population 13% 29% 1,223 200mn people below age of 50 A rising middle class 244 95 69 Strong economic growth driven 29% 29 23 5 by domestic consumption 26% 0-14 Source: MPA 2013 30-49 50-69 Source: Indonesia Bureau of Statistics 2012 Completed Education Level NA 22% 15-29 Monthly Household Expenditure (Rp1,000) University 4% Academy 3% Senior High 29% E <600 5% D 601900 13% A1 3500 6% A2 25013500 9% Only 4% of population has university degrees Indonesians prefer to watch TV than to read, watching 5 hours of TV per day. C1 12511750 26% Junior High 19% Source: Indonesia Bureau of Statistics 2012 40mn TV household B 17512500 20% C2 9011250 21% Elementary 23% 70+ Source: Nielsen Media Research 5 Asia Pacific’s Pay TV subscribers (2013) Asia Pacific’s Average Pay TV Monthly ARPU (2013) In USD In thousand subs 100 32 95 Satellite Cable 800 80 IPTV 717 63 60 5,955 51 4,580 40 31 3,416 1,240 1,572 786 1,095 146 5,245 1,060 2,749 20 1,536 1,455 235 792 10 336 8 5 829 32 - 19 16 11 533 418 32 11 9 6 0 Source: Media Partners Asia 2014 6 Indonesia has the lowest pay TV penetration rate of TV household in the Asia Pacific (2013) 120% 100% 100% 89% 80% 80% 66% 53% 60% 52% 40% 27% 20% 13% 9% Philippines Indonesia 0% Korea Hongkong India Singapore Malaysia China Thailand Indonesia has the highest projected pay TV subscriber growth in the Asia Pacific (CAGR 2013-2018E) 16% 15% 14% 12% 9% 10% 8% 5% 6% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% Hongkong Singapore 0% Indonesia Philippines Malaysia China Korea India Thailand Source: Media Partners Asia 7 Company Milestones Total subscribers (in thousands) Total subscribers in Sep 2014 = 2.53 million 3000 2,528 2500 July 2012: IPO @ Rp 1,520/shr 2011: MPEG-4 rollout 2,300 2000 2009: Launch of Indostar II satellite; migrated subscribers to Galaxy and Venus packages 1,720 1500 1,163 1000 805 604 500 2006: Name change to MNC Skyvision 479 9 0 2008: Introduced Top TV to target low/middle class Opened sales and services offices in 43 cities 28 30 56 109 192 306 2001: Bhakti Investama acquired 51% of Indovision and became major owner. Less than 30k subscribers 9 Brands Strategy Launched in 1994 Middle & upper-middle class Cities & urban areas 38% market share (#1 in Indonesia) Approx. 121 int’l and local channels 1. Continue to acquire new subscribers and retain existing subscribers 2. Create differentiation through new channels, attractive & value-for-money packages and value-added services 3. Conduct aggressive marketing activities to educate the market on the pay TV proposition and enhance our brands Launched in 2008 Middle & lower middle class Rural areas & FTA blank spots 25% market share (#2 in Indonesia) Approx. 49 int’l and local channels 5. Increase up-selling programs to increase ARPU Launched in 2008 6. Actively participate in anti-piracy programs Middle & lower middle class, 4. Expand in-house distribution channels and explore new channels skewed to movies & entertainment lovers 12% market share (#3 in Indonesia) Approx. 72 int’l and local channels 10 Private consumption is a key growth driver… 100% … and continues to increase at a robust pace … 125 125 121 118 119 5.50% 117 50% 115 113 112 BBB- 7 BB+ 6 BB 5 BB- 4 B+ 3 B 2 B- 1 Baa3 7 6Ba1 5Ba2 4Ba3 3B1 5.00% 111 25% 8 8 6.00% 123 75% … while Indonesia’s sovereign risk have markedly improved 2B2 109 0% '11 '12 '13 105 4.50% '11 '12 '13 1B3 0 3 -0 May Jun-03 Jul- 03 3 g- 0 Au p-03 Se Oct -03 3 -0 Nov c -03 De Jan-04 b-04 Fe 4 Mar- 0 r -04 Ap 4 -0 May Jun-04 Jul- 04 4 g- 0 Au p-04 Se Oct -04 4 -0 Nov c -04 De Jan-05 b-05 Fe 5 Mar- 0 r -05 Ap 5 -0 May Jun-05 Jul- 05 5 g- 0 Au p-05 Se Oct -05 5 -0 Nov c -05 De Jan-06 b-06 Fe 6 Mar- 0 r -06 Ap 6 -0 May Jun-06 Jul- 06 6 g- 0 Au p-06 Se Oct -06 6 -0 Nov c -06 De Jan-07 b-07 Fe 7 Mar- 0 r -07 Ap 7 -0 May Jun-07 Jul- 07 7 g- 0 Au p-07 Se Oct -07 7 -0 Nov c -07 De Jan-08 b-08 Fe 8 Mar- 0 r -08 Ap 8 -0 May Jun-08 Jul- 08 8 g- 0 Au p-08 Se Oct -08 8 -0 Nov c -08 De Jan-09 b-09 Fe 9 Mar- 0 r -09 Ap 9 -0 May Jun-09 Jul- 09 9 g- 0 Au p-09 Se Oct -09 9 -0 Nov c -09 De Jan-10 b-10 Fe 0 Mar- 1 r -10 Ap 0 -1 May Jun-10 Jul- 10 0 g- 1 Au p-10 Se Oct -10 0 -1 Nov c -10 De Jan-11 b-11 Fe Mar- 1 r -11 Ap -1 May Jun-11 Jul- 11 g- 1 Au p-11 Se Oct -11 -1 Nov c -11 De 107 03 04 05 S&P Note: Data represents % of GDP Expenditure Source: Badan Pusat Statistik 1. *Data in USD billion dollars over constant price Source: Badan Pusat Statistik 06 07 Fitch 08 09 10 0 11 Moody's Source: Bloomberg One of Asia's largest and most rapidly growing middle class of over 93 million in 2009 1, doubling from 45 million in 1999, with strong growth momentum in private and household consumptions Sovereign bond is rated as Investment Grade, highlighting a strong policy framework and positive outlook for the economy Source: ADB 11 Brand Awareness 100% 77% 74% 70% Extensive market research and communications are critical components of MNC Sky Vision’s strategy MNC Sky Vision is a recognized market leader for innovative marketing and branding 1. Source: Prompt Research 2014 69% 47% Marketing & Brand Awards Best Innovation in Marketing (2008, 2009, 2011, 2012) Best Experiential Marketing (2010, 2011, 2012) Top Brand (2008, 2009, 2010,2011, 2012, 2013, 2014) Indonesia Best Brand Award (2011, 2012,2013) Most Admired Companies (2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014) Net Promoter Customer Loyalty Award (2010, 2012) Digital Marketing Award In Social Media (2011, 2012) Call Center Award (2010, 2012) Customer Satisfaction Award (2012) Original Brand Award (2012, 2013, 2014) Best New Issuer Award(2013, 2014) Service Quality Awards (2014) Solo and Jogja Best Brand Index (2014) Satria Brand Award (2014) 12 Movies (13) News (11) GE & Variety (30) Oriental (3) HD (5) Kids (9) Sports (6) Religion (2) Toddlers (3) Local FTA (12) Documentary (9) Lifestyle (14) Music (5) Exclusive channel Total Channels: 122 Exclusive Channels: 34 MNC Exclusive: 20 13 NO. CHANNEL NO. CHANNEL 1. Cartoon Network 11. MNC Infotainment 2. Disney Jr. 12. Celestial 3. Disney Channel 13. MNC Entertainment 4. S-One 14. Vision 3 Baby 5. MNC Shop 15. CBeebies 6. MNC Sports 1 16. MNC News 7. Fox Movies Premium 17. NGC Wild 8. AXN 18. MNC Drama 9. MNC Sports 2 19. Cinemax 10. MNC Kids 20. History Source: AGB Nielsen Report 14 No. Kids No. Movies No. International 1. Cartoon Network 1. Fox Movies Premium 1. KBS 2. Disney Jr. 2. Celestial 2. Arirang 3. Disney Channel 3. Cinemax 3. DW-TV A+ No. Entertainment No. Sports No. Lifestyle 1. S-ONE 1. MNC Sports 1 1. MNC Infotainment 2. AXN 2. MNC Sports 2 2. MNC Food & Travel 3. MNC Entertainment 3. Fox Sports 2 3. MNC Lifestyle No. Documentary No. News No. Music 1. NatGeo Wild 1. MNC News 1. Channel V 2. History 2. MNC Business 2. MNC Music 3. BBC Knowledge 3. CNN International 3. Trace Source: AGB Nielsen Report 15 Dominant Position in Indonesia’s Pay TV Industry 39.96% CAGR in Subscribers (2007 - Dec 2013) IDV MNC Sky Vision 74.6% Top TV 2,528 Oke V 2,300 Others 15,6% 402 First Media 9.8% MNC Sky Vision is the market leader of Pay-TV in Indonesia 1,163 804 480 306 Total Number of Indonesia Pay TV Subscribers as per Jun 2014: 3.35 MN Source 26 604 76 335 1,720 351 204 774 583 173 88 516 752 454 631 306 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 838 933 2012 1175 1288 2013 Sep-14 Media Partners Asia (July 2014) Largest subscriber base representing about 75% market share Subscriber of 2,528,346 as of Sep 2014 One of the lowest content costs; highest bargaining power on pricing, minimum guarantees & exclusivity Subscriber base provides scale to increase ARPU and profitability going forward 16 Pay TV Market Share As of June 2014 Others, 15.6% First Media, 9.8% Pay TV Market Share End of 2013 MSKY, 74.6% Others , 16.6% Pay TV Market Share End of 2012 First Media, 9.6% Others , 19.0% MSKY, 73.8% First Media, 10.0% MSKY, 71.0% 17 S-Band DTH Broadcasting Capability Holds exclusive license for broadcasting using Sband spectrum Clear reception and resilience to heavy rainstorms that are common in Indonesia C-band or Ku-band used by competitors more susceptible to service outages Complete coverage of Indonesia’s 13,700 islands, over 9.8 million square kilometers Higher EIRP1 enables smaller reception disk compared to C-band Best-in-class technology and exclusivity of Sband provides competitive advantage DTH Transmission Process 1. Effective Isotropic Radiated Power 18 Why DTH Works in Indonesia Pay TV Market Share 2011 DTH is the dominant pay TV platform with 81% market share The only platform providing complete coverage across Indonesia Cable is hampered by infrastructure and geographical challenges 19% 81% DTH IPTV to grow, but infrastructure is inadequate for wide-scale rollout 2018E 2013 Cable TV DTT IPTV Source: MPA estimates DTH Competitive Advantages DTH DTH market share is expected to grow further by 84% until 2015 Cable DTT IPTV Country-wide Coverage Rural Coverage HD Bandwidth 19 Network of 100 Branch Offices Across Indonesia 16 new branches added in early 2014 Branch office Sulawesi Majority of new customers are sourced through in-house channels, Greater control, lower commissions and stringent customer verification Kalimantan Papua Sumatera Sumatra Maluku Java Competitors rely primarily on external dealers for subscriber acquisition 82% of New Subscribers Are Acquired Through In-House Channels D2D Call Center Sub-get-Sub 82% Stores Club Dealers Corners 18% 20 Largest pay TV operator in Indonesia in terms of subscriber base, with 75% market share1 Established in 1988; provides pay television services through Indovision ,Top TV brands and also Okevision Nationwide coverage using Direct-to-Home (“DTH”) S-band satellite-based network 122 local and international channels and 34 exclusive channels Operational and Financial Snapshot 1. Subscribers 2,528,346 (As of Sep 2014) Subscriber Growth 39.96% CAGR Dec 2007 to 31 Dec 2013 ARPU / Churn Rate IDR 101,314 / 1.26% (9M 2014) Revenue IDR 2,436 Bn (Sep 2014) EBITDA IDR 919 Bn (Sep 2014) According to Media Partners Asia Limited (“MPA”) 22 Total revenue (Rp billions) Sep 2013 Revenue Sep 2014 3,020 2,394 1,412 2010 2,436 1,738 2011 2012 2013 Sep 2014 EBITDA (Rp billions) and EBITDA margin (%) EBITDA EBITDA Margin 1,214 1,002 41.9% 41.9% 919 40.0% 728 522 2010 38.0% 37.0% 2011 2012 2013 Sep 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 Sep 2014 Source: Company information 23 Total debt / EBITDA1 Net debt2 / EBITDA1 2.74 2.96 2.35 2.31 2.13 2.37 1.54 2010 2011 2012 2.14 1.19 2013 Sep 2014 Debt / Total capitalization3 63% 1.9 2010 2011 2012 2013 Sep 2014 EBITDA1 / Interest 64% 62% 63% 41% 9.01 5.68 4.81 5.51 3.55 2010 2011 2012 2013 Sep 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 Sep 2014 Source: Company information 1. 2. 3. EBITDA = Operating profit + D&A Net Debt = Gross Debt - Cash - Short Term Investments Total capitalization = Debt + Total book equity 24 Sep 2013 Sep 2014 COMMERCIAL 3% TV AD 4% JOINING FEE & SALES DSD 1% DTH 92% TV AD COMMERCIAL 5% 3% JOINING FEE & SALES DSD 0% DTH 92% 25 IDR Billions Sep-13 Sep-14 % Change Revenues 2,230 2,436 9% Operating Expenses 1,865 2,256 21% 919 919 0% (223) (28) 87% Adjusted EBITDA Net Income Revenue rose by 9% from Rp2,230 billion as of Sep 2013 to become Rp2,436 billion as of Sep 2014, in line with the increase of number of subscribers from 2.1 million subs in Sep 2013 to 2.5 million subs in Sep 2014 IDR billions +9% 2,436 2,230 919 919 87% (223) Pendapatan/Revenue EBITDA (28) Laba Bersih/Net Income 26
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