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Author`s personal copy
LES SERVICES ÉCOSYSTÉMIQUES RENDUS PAR LES SOLS : ANALYSE DES RÉGIMES INCITATIFS SOUS-JACENTS ANALYZING INCENTIVE MECHANISMS BEHIND THE PROVISION OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES DELIVERED BY SOILS Gilles Grolleau Montpellier SupAgro – LAMETA Bat. 26 2, place Pierre Viala 34060 Montpellier Cedex 1 Tel : + 33 (0)4.99.61.28.81 – Fax : + 33 (0)4 67 63 54 09 [email protected] Rapport final 15 mai 2013 Numéro de contrat Ministère/ADEME: CV 09-00006527 Les services écosystémiques rendus par les sols : Analyse des régimes incitatifs sous-jacents 05/2013 REMERCIEMENTS Nous tenons à remercier de nombreuses personnes qui ont contribué à ce projet. Ces contributions ont pris de nombreuses formes tant dans un cadre formel qu’informel et nous tenons à exprimer notre gratitude tout en sollicitant l’indulgence de ceux qui ne trouveront pas mention de leurs noms dans ces remerciements. En effet, penser à tous et exprimer nos sincères remerciements au bout de 38 mois est un véritable défi en soi et génère forcément des oublis et des omissions. Nos remerciements s’adressent d’abord au programme GESSOL pour son soutien financier, l’accompagnement et les échanges fructueux permis tout au long du déroulement de ce programme. Nous tenons tout particulièrement à remercier Dominique King qui bien qu’il nous ait quitté a été pour nous une source d’encouragements. Dresser la liste de ceux qui nous ont aidé de manière très diverse, mais souvent avec constance, compréhension et gentillesse est un exercice périlleux. Qu’Anne-Véronique Auzet, Marion Bardy, Insaf Bekir, Martial Bernoux, Philippe Billet, Antonio Bispo, Eric Blanchart, Douadia Bougherara, Claire Chenu, Sophie Clot, Patrice Coll, Thomas Eglin, Nicolas Gallaï, Camille Guellier, Sana El Harbi, Isabelle Feix, Lisette Ibanez, Robert Lifran, Yves Le Bissonais, David Masclet, Jean François Ouvry, Véronique Souchère, Angéla Sutan, Luc Thiébaut, Alban Thomas, Sophie Thoyer et Marc Willinger trouvent ici l’expression de notre gratitude pour leur commentaires et leurs suggestions. Certains ont nourri nos réflexions dans des cadres formels, pour d’autres autour d’un café et d’une discussion à bâtons rompus. Nous tenons également à remercier l’équipe administrative du LAMETA et les collègues de l’unité qui ont fait preuve d’un désir sincère de nous faciliter les procédures et nous leur en sommes très reconnaissants. L’ADEME EN BREF L'Agence de l'Environnement et de la Maîtrise de l'Energie (ADEME) participe à la mise en œuvre des politiques publiques dans les domaines de l'environnement, de l'énergie et du développement durable. Afin de leur permettre de progresser dans leur démarche environnementale, l'agence met à disposition des entreprises, des collectivités locales, des pouvoirs publics et du grand public, ses capacités d'expertise et de conseil. Elle aide en outre au financement de projets, de la recherche à la mise en œuvre et ce, dans les domaines suivants : la gestion des déchets, la préservation des sols, l'efficacité énergétique et les énergies renouvelables, la qualité de l'air et la lutte contre le bruit. L’ADEME est un établissement public sous la tutelle du ministère de l'écologie, du développement durable et de l'énergie et du ministère de l'enseignement supérieur et de la recherche. www.ademe.fr Et un copyright Toute représentation ou reproduction intégrale ou partielle faite sans le consentement de l’auteur ou de ses ayants droit ou ayants cause est illicite selon le Code de la propriété intellectuelle (art. L 122-4) et constitue une contrefaçon réprimée par le Code pénal. Seules sont autorisées (art. 122-5) les copies ou reproductions strictement réservées à l’usage privé de copiste et non destinées à une utilisation collective, ainsi que les analyses et courtes citations justifiées par la caractère critique, pédagogique ou d’information de l’œuvre à laquelle elles sont incorporées, sous réserve, toutefois, du respect des dispositions des articles L 122-10 à L 122-12 du même Code, relatives à la reproduction par reprographie. Programme GESSOL 2/24 Les services écosystémiques rendus par les sols : Analyse des régimes incitatifs sous-jacents 05/2013 RESUME Le sol rend de nombreux services aux communautés humaines, dont la valeur est considérable. Néanmoins, les activités humaines perturbent et affectent souvent négativement ces services en provoquant des détériorations sur les plans quantitatif et qualitatif. Le projet ECOSOL démarre du constat que le comportement humain est souvent à l’origine des perturbations affectant les sols et qu’en conséquence, il est nécessaire de mieux comprendre les déterminants de ce dernier afin de pouvoir l’influencer. Le projet vise une meilleure compréhension de ces déterminants afin d’envisager des modalités concrètes susceptibles de maintenir, voire de renforcer la fourniture de ces services, et ce tout en se situant dans un contexte de fortes contraintes budgétaires. De manière très concrète, nous mobilisons l’économie néo-institutionnelle pour comprendre les facteurs permettant l’émergence de solutions contractuelles entre les agriculteurs et les municipalités pour la fourniture du service d’épuration et de traitement des eaux. Grâce à l’étude détaillée de deux cas (Munich et New York), nous tirons plusieurs leçons pratiques susceptibles de faciliter l’émergence de ces accords décentralisés comme la structure de marché monopsonique, la présence de structures institutionnelles crédibles et la capacité à transformer les bénéficiaires de ces services rendus par les sols en supporters et payeurs. De plus, une partie importante du projet est consacrée aux apports de l’économie comportementale afin d’expliquer le décalage entre les promesses des instruments des politiques visant une gestion plus durable des sols et les résultats réels. Cette analyse repose sur un modèle du comportement humain alternatif qui utilise des raccourcis mentaux et des processus heuristiques dans la prise de décision, en contraste avec le modèle purement rationnel de maximisation d’une fonction objective sous contraintes. Ce modèle de comportement permet de générer des préconisations originales en termes de politiques. Plusieurs biais sont ainsi étudiés en rapport avec les politiques liées aux sols. Nous explorons le rôle des considérations de statut et de position qui interfèrent avec le seul calcul économique et qui peuvent pousser les agents à refuser certaines innovations pourtant profitables et environnementalement préférables à cause de leur impact négatif sur leur statut dans un certain groupe de référence. Nous montrons également que le recours systématique à des (des)incitations monétaires pour encourager (ou décourager) des comportements préférables peut générer un effet d’éviction des motivations préexistantes. Pour éviter ce risque, nous proposons un mécanisme original permettant d’utiliser au mieux les motivations hétérogènes au sein d’une population donnée. Nous montrons également que la qualification et l’origine perçue des éventuelles incitations financières ne sont pas neutres et peuvent significativement affecter leur capacité à générer le comportement recherché. Nous mettons également en évidence que le soutien à une politique donnée en faveur des sols au-delà des bénéfices escomptés peut être lié à l’origine attribuée aux perturbations et aux points de référence. Ainsi, nous démontrons que des éléments de contexte considérés a priori comme mineurs peuvent influencer de manière significative les performances des politiques environnementales et constituer des leviers d’action prometteurs. Mots clés : biais, comportement, éviction, incitations monétaires, sols, statut. Programme GESSOL 3/24 Les services écosystémiques rendus par les sols : Analyse des régimes incitatifs sous-jacents 05/2013 ABSTRACT Soils deliver several valuable ecosystem services to human communities. Nevertheless, human activities frequently disturb these services both qualitatively and quantitatively. The ECOSOL project starts from the premise that the human behaviour is at the root of the problem. Consequently, a better understanding of drivers of human behavior can usefully inform policymakers seeking to influence agents’ behavior. The ECOSOL project aims at investigating some non-classical drivers of human behavior in order to design policies that can reinforce the provision of soils services, especially in times of severe resource constraints. We investigate contractual arrangements for water quality services between municipal water organizations and farmers. Our study uses a transaction cost framework, in conjunction with detailed case studies of two water quality payment schemes, to examine the factors that increase and decrease transaction costs. Factors such as the lack of rural/urban antipathy, homogeneous land use, utilization of well-developed organic standards, and strong demand for organic products decreased the transaction costs in the Munich case relative to the New York case. Factors that decreased transaction costs in both cases included: some highly sensitive land was purchased outright and there was one large “buyer”, the municipality, which interacted with farmers. Time and flexibility of water quality regulations allowed negotiation over and development of the watershed programs. Moreover, we use insights from behavioral economics to explain why promises of soil related policies are not fulfilled and why results differ so much from expectations. Our analysis considers an alternative model of human behavior that includes the use of mental shortcuts and heuristics in decision making. This model based on the influence of contextual factors offers original recommendations regarding soil related policies. It contrasts with the rational model, which considers rational agents who analyze incentives offered to them and behave in ways that reflect their best interests. We study several biases related to soil policies. We emphasize that status concerns can interfere with economic calculus and lead agents to refuse win-win innovations because of their detrimental impact on their status in a reference group. We also show that the systematic use of monetary incentives to influence some behaviours can generate a crowding-out effect on preexisting motivations. To avoid or attenuate this risk, we propose an original mechanism, which is based on the heterogeneity of motivations among agents. Departing from standard applications of utility theory where only outcomes matter, we show that past states and alternative causes of an environmental problem affect respondents’ interest and willingness-to-pay to improve it. We also argue that the qualification and perceived origin of monetary incentives are not neutral and can significantly affect their ability to generate the desired behavior. We emphasize that ‘minor’ contextual elements can significantly shape the performances of soil related policies and constitute good leverages. Key-words: biases, behavior, crowding-out, monetary incentives, soils, status. Programme GESSOL 4/24 Les services écosystémiques rendus par les sols : Analyse des régimes incitatifs sous-jacents 05/2013 SOMMAIRE Titre Page Remerciements 2 Résumé 3 1. Contexte général et objectifs généraux du projet 6 2. Quelques éléments de méthodologie et éventuelles difficultés rencontrées 7 3. Des arrangements contractuels afin de pérenniser les services d’épuration des sols 8 4. L’influence sociale : les considérations de statut et de position 9 5. L’effet d’éviction entre incitations et les stratégies mobilisables 10 6. Les effets de formulation 13 61. L’effet des causes de la dégradation des sols sur le consentement à payer 13 62. L’origine des incitations 15 7. Le timing des incitations 16 8. La dynamique des actions : l’effet de compensation morale 17 9. Partenariats mis en place, projetés, envisagés 17 10. Conclusion générale 18 11. Références mobilisés dans le rapport 18 12. Liste des opérations de valorisation et de transfert issues du contrat 20 Annexes 24 Programme GESSOL 5/24 Les services écosystémiques rendus par les sols : Analyse des régimes incitatifs sous-jacents 05/2013 Les services écosystémiques rendus par les sols : Analyse des régimes incitatifs sous-jacents ‘Nous connaissons mieux la mécanique des corps célestes que le fonctionnement du sol sous nos pieds’ (Leonard de Vinci, 1452-1519) 1. Contexte général et objectifs généraux du projet Les sols rendent de nombreux services écosystémiques dont la valeur est estimée de quelques 1 dizaines d’euros à plusieurs milliers d’euros par hectare , et ce souvent à l’insu des bénéficiaires et même des fournisseurs. Certains de ces services semblent évidents (e.g., support de la production agricole, stockage de déchets) alors que d’autres passent souvent inaperçus (e.g. réservoir de biodiversité, épuration de l’eau, stockage de carbone). Par exemple, selon une étude commanditée par le Ministère de l’environnement irlandais, les plus gros contributeurs naturels à la richesse nationale seraient les vers de terre avec un apport estimé à 700 millions d'euros par an, notamment grâce à leurs rôles dans le recyclage des déchets végétaux, l’aération des sols et la fertilisation de ces derniers du fait de leurs déjections (Bullock et al., 2008). La perte, la diminution ou la détérioration de la qualité de ces services et la nécessité de leur restauration voire de leur remplacement par des solutions de substitution intensives en capital permettent parfois de se rendre compte de leur importance pour les différentes parties concernées. Des rapports alarmants s’inquiètent de la dégradation et des menaces pesant sur de nombreux sols du fait des activités humaines et ce dans des proportions largement supérieures à ce qu’autorisent les cycles naturels de formation des sols ou de réhabilitation de ces derniers. L’intuition sous-jacente à l’ensemble de ce projet est de considérer que si l’être humain est à l’origine des menaces à travers son comportement, le changement (durable) de son comportement pourrait aussi constituer une solution. Dès lors, une meilleure compréhension des déterminants du comportement humain peut déboucher sur des politiques et stratégies originales susceptibles de contribuer à modifier ce dernier dans un sens favorable aux intérêts de la société, c’est à dire en faveur d’une gestion plus durable du capital sol. Le recours à des solutions technologiques couplées à des incitations économiques appropriées a souvent été préconisé afin de limiter les perturbations ou de compenser les déficiences des services écosystémiques. Par exemple, les structures de traitement ont souvent été utilisées pour remplacer ou compléter le service d’épuration rendue par les sols. L’économie traditionnelle considère que les agents sont parfaitement rationnels (‘Econs’ de Sunstein et Thaler, 2008) et que suite à une analyse exhaustive de l’information disponible et des incitations proposées, ils adopteront le comportement qui correspond le mieux à leurs intérêts. Cette approche avec ses raffinements récents (e.g., économie néo-institutionnelle, économie de l’information) a ainsi permis des avancées remarquables. Dans cette direction, nous avons analysé certains problèmes liés à la dégradation des services écosystémiques rendus par les sols comme des conflits entre différents groupes d’intérêt portant sur des usages mutuellement incompatible de la même ressource. Nous avons ainsi étudié les conditions ayant permis l’émergence de solutions contractuelles pour la fourniture du service d’épuration de l’eau par les sols avoisinant les villes de Munich et de New-York et Munich afin d’identifier les déterminants des coûts de transaction et les stratégies mises en place afin de rendre les coûts de transaction compatibles avec un arrangement décentralisé. L’homogénéité offerte par un modèle d’explication du comportement quasi-universel a eu pour contrepartie une certaine ignorance d’autres paramètres notamment psychologiques, qui influencent pourtant les décisions des agents. Tout en reconnaissant les apports considérables permis par ce modèle rationnel, nous avons pris le parti de consacrer une partie importante des recherches réalisées à un autre modèle de comportement qui reconnaît l’importance de l’interprétation d’une situation et du contexte. L’économie comportementale étudie comment les agents économiques (‘Humans’ dans la terminologie de Sunstein et Thaler, 2008) prennent leurs décisions dans la réalité, notamment en utilisant les apports de la psychologie. Plutôt que de postuler une unique forme de rationalité des agents, comme la maximisation d’une fonction objective sous contrainte, les économistes 1 Ces évaluations sont souvent controversées notamment du fait de l’incommensurabilité des objets concernés, comme l’existence d’une espèce. Il y a une sorte de répugnance morale quant à la question d’attribuer un prix à la nature (Bourgeois-Gironde et al., 2011). Programme GESSOL 6/24 Les services écosystémiques rendus par les sols : Analyse des régimes incitatifs sous-jacents 05/2013 comportementaux accordent une grande importance à l’observation des comportements réels et à leurs déterminants. Cette logique inversée a permis l’identification de plusieurs biais cognitifs et comportementaux, correspondant à des « erreurs régulières » ou à des « déviations systématiques » dans les décisions des agents par rapport à ce qui est prédit par la théorie néoclassique (Venkatachalam, 2008 ; Gowdy, 2008 ; Shogren et Taylor, 2008 Beretti et la., 2013). En résumé, l’économie comportementale démontre la pluralité des normes qui guident les choix des individus. Elle insiste sur le fait que le comportement est influencé par un ensemble de facteurs qui vont bien au-delà de ce que suppose la rationalité conventionnelle mobilisée dans les modèles économiques. Or, la conception des interventions est souvent basée sur le modèle de comportement rationnel, ce qui est à la fois réducteur et susceptible de restreindre considérablement leur efficacité. En effet, sans renier les apports de ce modèle du comportement individuel, des travaux récents en psychologie et en neurosciences (Kahneman, 2003 ; Thaler et Sunsein, 2008) distinguent un autre modèle de fonctionnement qui opère en parallèle dans le cerveau humain et qui accorde une importance considérable au contexte en mobilisant des automatismes, des raccourcis mentaux et des processus heuristiques dans la prise de décision. Alors que le système réflexif suppose une analyse consciente et approfondie des éléments disponibles sur un domaine donné afin d’agir dans un sens qui maximise les intérêts de l’individu, le système automatique opère de manière inconsciente, quasi-automatique et superficielle sur de multiples domaines. Quelques éléments de comparaison sont évoqués dans le tableau 1. Tableau 1: Coexistence de 2 systèmes de prise de décision au niveau du cerveau humain (Kahneman, 2003; Thaler et Sunstein, 2009) Système automatique Système réflexif Non contrôlé Contrôlé Sans efforts Nécessite des efforts Logique d’association Déduction Rapide Lent Inconscient Conscient Poids des émotions Se conforme à des règles En ignorant ce deuxième système opératoire, les interventions publiques se sont vraisemblablement sur-focalisées sur le système réflexif et se sont en quelque sorte privées d’un levier important de compréhension et d’influence du comportement humain. Les éléments développés dans la suite de notre contribution visent à encourager une prise en compte plus systématique du système automatique afin de mieux comprendre les résultats parfois surprenants de certaines politiques, mais aussi afin de favoriser des politiques plus efficaces, notamment en faveur d’une gestion plus durable des sols. 2. Quelques éléments de méthodologie et éventuelles difficultés rencontrées Le projet ECOSOL a permis d’explorer plusieurs situations et de mettre en évidence des résultats originaux relatifs aux régimes incitatifs sous-jacents à la fourniture des services écosystémiques des sols. Les méthodes d’investigation retenues reflètent un certain éclectisme et comprennent notamment des études de cas détaillées, des (quasi)expérimentations en laboratoire (décontextualisées) et sur le terrain et de la modélisation. De manière générale, les différentes opérations du projet ECOSOL ont été menées en parallèle. Les opérations utilisant des questionnaires quasi-expérimentaux ont généralement fait l’objet de discussions préalables avec des spécialistes de sciences du sol, mais aussi avec des professionnels impliqués dans le conseil aux agriculteurs et de pré-tests sur des populations néophytes, puis sur quelques professionnels et enfin sur l’échantillon considérée. Les premiers résultats sont indiqués de manière succincte dans les sections suivantes, sachant que les articles d’accompagnement contiennent l’ensemble des détails ainsi que les références bibliographiques permettant de resituer l’apport des travaux réalisés. Nous faisons donc le choix de surtout restituer (1) les intuitions/hypothèses sous-jacentes et une rapide justification théorique/conceptuelle de ces dernières (2) les principaux résultats actuellement disponibles et (3) quelques implications en termes de politiques publiques pour la gestion durable des sols. Nous avons préféré mentionner les implications pratiques et les recommandations tout au long du texte pour faciliter la compréhension. De manière schématique, chaque ‘biais’ a été étudié en le définissant et en le caractérisant par rapport aux prédictions dérivées de la théorie néoclassique, puis en montrant comment sa prise en Programme GESSOL 7/24 Les services écosystémiques rendus par les sols : Analyse des régimes incitatifs sous-jacents 05/2013 compte dans l’analyse est susceptible de modifier les résultats escomptés. Les recherches se sont parfois appuyées sur une modélisation analytique permettant de comparer le comportement prédit avec et sans biais. Une fois, ces bases théoriques posées, nous avons eu recours à l’économie expérimentale en laboratoire et sur le terrain (List, 2011) pour apporter des éléments de validation empirique ou de prolongement du débat engagé sur le plan théorique, avec des applications spécifiques liées aux sols. Pour des facilités d’exposition et du fait des contraintes imposées en termes d’espace disponible, nous présentons chaque biais de manière indépendante et nous insistons sur les dimensions que nous souhaitons explorer, tout en étant conscient que ces raccourcis peuvent occulter certains aspects, notamment l’importance des interaction entre biais (Beretti et al., 2013b). Toutes les tâches prévues dans le projet ECOSOL ont été achevées, sauf celles relatives à l’évaluation monétaire et dans une moindre mesure, celles relatives aux déterminants de l’épandage 2 des boues . Etant données la faible taille de l’équipe impliquée (5 membres sur 38 mois) et la localisation de tous les participants et personnes ressources sur la région de Montpellier, les réunions de coordination ont été régulières et suivies au rythme d’environ une réunion en moyenne tous les deux mois en plus des réunions informelles quasi-hebdomadaires pour certains sous groupes. Des résultats originaux ont été produits et la valorisation de ces derniers est déjà bien entamée. Ainsi, cinq publications sont déjà parues ou acceptées dans des revues nationales et internationales à comité de lecture, alors que d’autres sont soumises et en cours de rédaction. Néanmoins, un certain nombre d’évènements ont perturbé le bon déroulement du projet ECOSOL. Sans s’appesantir sur les aléas du quotidien auquel nul chercheur n’échappe, trois faits ont sérieusement contraints l’achèvement de certains travaux. Premièrement, l’une des chevilles ouvrières du projet, le doctorant Antoine Beretti, s’est désengagé à l’issue de la soutenance de son doctorat. Il était en effet prévu qu’il continue à travailler sur plusieurs questions, tout en assurant la valorisation des résultats déjà obtenus. L’expérience qu’il avait accumulée, les ressources qu’il avait su mobiliser (par exemple l’accès à certaines données et collaborations), les travaux qui étaient en cours et qui l’associaient se sont donc retrouvés fortement contraints. Deuxièmement, le porteur du projet, Gilles Grolleau s’est mis en disponibilité en Septembre 2012 pour convenances personnelles, ce qui a fortement diminué les interactions quotidiennes avec d’autres collègues impliqués dans le projet. Troisièmement, certaines contraintes administratives liées à certains types de dépenses (notamment lorsque certaines expériences sortaient des clous) ont été vécues comme extrêmement lourdes, pénalisantes et consommatrices d’énergie. De fait, l’ensemble des fonds demandés n’a pas été 3 mobilisé et certaines tâches n’ont pas été menées à terme . Néanmoins, du point de vue du porteur, le bilan reste globalement positif. 3. Des arrangements contractuels afin de pérenniser les services d’épuration des sols La qualité de l’eau est un enjeu crucial dans de nombreuses régions. A proximité de nombreuses agglomérations, cette qualité est souvent menacée par des activités agricoles qui la rendent impropre à la consommation humaine. Cette situation peut être analysée comme un conflit entre différents groupes d’intérêt portant sur des usages mutuellement incompatible de la même ressource. Par exemple, les agriculteurs souhaitent utiliser les eaux souterraines comme des réceptacles ultimes des co-produits de fertilisation ou des traitements phytosanitaires, alors que les citoyens consommateurs d’une ville avoisinante souhaitent bénéficier d’une eau pure, notamment grâce au service d’épuration rendue par les sols. Ces deux usages mutuellement incompatibles sont à la source d’un conflit qui pourrait potentiellement être résolu à travers l’échange de droits de propriété entre les parties (Coase, 1960 ; Anderson, 2004). Néanmoins, la réalisation de ces arrangements volontaires est conditionnée par le niveau des coûts de transaction qui peuvent être prohibitifs et empêcher toute transaction. Ces coûts se rapportent notamment aux coûts d’identification des parties impliquées et de leurs droits respectifs, à la délimitation des droits à échanger, à la rédaction de l’arrangement et aux modalités afin de le rendre exécutoire (McCann et al., 2005 ; Déprés et al., 2008). 2 Concernant le travail relatif aux déterminants de l’épandage des boues de station d’épuration dans les exploitations agricoles, nous avons été pénalisés par le départ prématuré d’Antoine Beretti qui travaillait sur les données du recensement agricole à Rennes en compagnie de Douadia Bougherara. En effet, n’ayant pas l’accréditation de la commission du secret pour pouvoir travailler sur ces données librement, cette étude était réalisée en collaboration avec D. Bougherara (UMR SMART Rennes). 3 L’ensemble des fonds n’a pas été utilisé (reliquat d’environ 10 000 EUR sur les 69 000 EUR accordés par le programme GESSOL), ce qui explique que certaines expériences prévues n’ont pas été réalisées. Programme GESSOL 8/24 Les services écosystémiques rendus par les sols : Analyse des régimes incitatifs sous-jacents 05/2013 Plutôt que de se contenter de reconnaître que des coûts de transaction trop élevés ont empêché l’émergence de solutions décentralisées, nous nous sommes intéressés à deux arrangements entre des agriculteurs et les villes avoisinantes (New-York, Munich) afin d’identifier les déterminants des coûts de transaction et les stratégies mises en place afin de rendre les coûts de transaction compatibles avec un arrangement décentralisé. De manière plus anecdotique et souvent à des fins de comparaison, nous avons également recouru à des arrangements mis en place par des embouteilleurs d’eau minérale (e.g., Perrier, Vittel) en France (Déprés et al., 2008 ; Grolleau, 2013). Les cas étudiés permettent de mettre en évidence de manière relativement fine les facteurs ayant favorisé ou défavorisé l’émergence de solutions contractuelles et l’efficacité de ces dernières, notamment en termes de performances à la fois environnementales et économiques (e.g., qualité de l’eau, coût des solutions de substitution). Ces études de cas permettent d’attribuer une valeur au service d’épuration rendue par les sols, valeur (plancher) qui est notamment indexée sur le coût des solutions de remplacement dans des contextes spécifiques. Notre analyse montre que l’absence d’antipathie entre urbains et ruraux (poids de l’histoire), l’utilisation homogène des sols sur la zone considérée, l’existence de références technico-économiques fiables et reconnues ainsi que la demande de produits biologiques ont contribué à diminuer le niveau des coûts de transaction dans le cas de Munich en comparaison de la ville de New-York. Pour les deux villes, l’acquisition d’une partie des terres, la situation de monopsone, la flexibilité (notamment temporelle et en termes de moyens exigés) des réglementations relatives à la qualité de l’eau, la sensibilisation des citoyens (e.g. écotourisme, écolabels signalant l’origine des produits et le rapport entre leur mode de production et la qualité de l’eau) ont favorisé l’émergence et l’efficacité d’accords contractuels dans le cas des deux villes (Grolleau et McCann, 2012). 4. L’influence sociale : les considérations de statut et de position Les effets de position et de statut impliquent que l’individu maximise une fonction objective interdépendante avec les fonctions d’utilité des autres. Il n’est pas intéressé par la seule utilité obtenue, mais aussi par sa position par rapport aux autres de son groupe de référence (Salhi et al., 2012). Une étude récente réalisée sur des agriculteurs en Chine montre que l’adoption de pratiques de conservation favorables à la biodiversité est certes influencée par les incitations financières proposées, mais aussi de manière substantielle par la décision des autres (Chen et al., 2009). L’utilisation des normes sociales pourrait ainsi permettre d’augmenter considérablement l’efficience des politiques incitatives. De nombreux exemples existent dans le domaine de l’environnement ou certaines entités sont davantage préoccupées par leur position relative que par leur situation en termes absolus (Griskevicius et al., 2010 ; Bougherara et al., En révision). L’importance de ces interdépendances peut inciter l’individu à s’éloigner du comportement prédit par la théorie traditionnelle et même l’amener à refuser certains arrangements pourtant gagnant-gagnant mais susceptible de modifier sa position relative (voir d’inverser son statut, par exemple de membre du ‘club des 100 quintaux’ à l’agriculture biologique) dans un sens qu’il juge indésirable. Ainsi, un agriculteur encouragé à adopter certaines pratiques favorables aux sols ne considère pas uniquement le gain net des évolutions proposées, mais aussi comment ces évolutions modifient ou non sa position relative dans son groupe de référence, en fonction de la (des) dimension(s) retenue(s) (Salhi et al., 2012). Nous avons d’abord montré l’importance des considérations de statut à la fois grâce à des questionnaires quasi-expérimentaux, puis grâce à une expérience en laboratoire. Les questionnaires quasi-expérimentaux appliqués à des domaines variées montrent qu’un pourcentage non négligeable des individus préfèrent la situation positionnelle (e.g., avoir plus que les autres quitte à avoir moins en valeur absolue) à des scénarios alternatifs (e.g, comme avoir plus en valeur absolue, mais moins que les autres). En effet, même lorsque des gains réels sont en jeu et que les individus doivent juste choisir entre trois couplets (X, Y) qui déterminent leur paiement (X) et celui de leur partenaire (Y). Ces trois couplets comprennent un couplet A prônant l’égalité et permettant d’évacuer l’aversion à l’inégalité (Fehr et Schmitt, 1999) (3, 3) ; un couplet B permettant de maximiser le gain privé quitte à ce que le second participant obtienne plus (5, 7) ; un couplet C correspondant à des préférences positionnelles (4, 1). La prédiction néo-classique est évidente : tous les individus devraient opter pour l’option B qui maximise le gain individuel. Néanmoins les résultats diffèrent significativement de cette prédiction. Même si une proportion importante des individus choisit l’option égoïste, l’option égalitaire et l’option positionnelle cumulées ensemble représentent 55%. Ainsi, les individus sont prêts à renoncer à des gains privés afin de promouvoir soit une certaine forme d’égalité, soit la recherche d’une meilleure position relative. L’expérience a été reproduite en doublant les montants en jeu pour voir comment des montants plus élevés influençaient ce type de préférences (Tableau 2). Programme GESSOL 9/24 Les services écosystémiques rendus par les sols : Analyse des régimes incitatifs sous-jacents 05/2013 Tableau 2: Pourcentages d’individus ayant choisi différentes options Option égalitaire Option égoïste Pourcentage d’individus Pourcentage d’individus (3, 3) 40 % (6, 6) 46 % Option positionnelle (5, 7) 45 % (10, 14) 34 % (4, 1) 15 % (8, 2) 20 % Ces résultats soutiennent l’importance des considérations de conformité à une norme d’égalité et de préférences positionnelles. A l’aide d’une analyse conceptuelle et d’exemples, nous montrons qu’il est possible de mobiliser cette ‘influence sociale’ afin de favoriser l’adoption de comportements socialement désirables. Ainsi et contrairement aux prédictions traditionnelles, la fourniture privée d’un bien public pourrait être renforcée si un mécanisme de course à la position sur cette dimension est enclenchée, ce qui peut se faire notamment en augmentant sa visibilité. En effet, alors qu’une analyse coût bénéfice semble déboucher naturellement sur l’adoption de certains comportements jugés préférables, les interactions entre profitabilité et statut peuvent sérieusement remettre en question cette conclusion (Salhi et al., 2012). Très concrètement, certaines innovations permettant une gestion plus durable des sols sont parfois rejetées, non sur la base d’un manque d’informations, ou d’une profitabilité insuffisante en comparaison des alternatives, mais à cause de leur effet dépréciatif en termes de statut. Plusieurs pistes et recommandations sont suggérées afin d’éviter ces interférences négatives et visant même à instrumentaliser la recherche de statut comme motivation à l’adoption de comportements préférables du point de vue de la gestion durable des sols (Salhi et al., 2012). 5. L’effet d’éviction entre incitations et les stratégies mobilisables En retenant le cadre d’analyse néoclassique, on peut faire l’hypothèse que le choix des pratiques fait par un utilisateur du sol est celui qui lui permet de maximiser son utilité, et que pour faire évoluer ces choix, il faut lui fournir des incitations différentes qui permettent d’augmenter la désirabilité de la pratique souhaitée par le régulateur public. Dans le cas de l’agriculture, les politiques agroenvironnementales se sont essentiellement cantonnées aux incitations économiques comme étant la force principale susceptible de pousser les agriculteurs à changer de pratiques. Ainsi, les mesures agro-environnementales de la PAC proposent des paiements aux agriculteurs volontaires qui permettent de couvrir les coûts supplémentaires de mise en œuvre et le manque à gagner induit par l’adoption d’un cahier des charges plus respectueux de l’environnement. En contradiction avec les prédictions pessimistes de la théorie néoclassique, les agents n’adoptent pas systématiquement un comportement de passagers clandestins et contribuent dans une certaine mesure à la production de ces services écosystémiques, malgré leur nature publique, sans toutefois atteindre le niveau pareto-optimal. Cette production volontaire témoigne en faveur de l’existence de motivations intrinsèques favorables à la fourniture des services considérés. Les motivations intrinsèques se réfèrent aux raisons d’agir qui proviennent de l’individu lui-même, comme le plaisir ou la satisfaction personnelle. Une personne intrinsèquement motivée entreprend une activité même si elle ne reçoit aucune compensation autre que celle dérivée de l’activité elle-même. Les motivations extrinsèques sont « imposées » à l’individu de l’extérieur et peuvent prendre plusieurs formes comme la reconnaissance sociale ou la compensation monétaire pour l’adoption d’un certain comportement ou la peur d’une sanction dans le cas du non-respect du comportement souhaité (Mzoughi, 2011). La question est donc de savoir comment encourager et soutenir cette production, à la fois en renforçant les motivations pré-existantes et en réduisant le comportement de passager clandestin. La réponse traditionnelle se base notamment sur l’utilisation d’incitations monétaires positives ou négatives. Néanmoins, des travaux récents (Frey et Oberholzer-Gee, 1997 ; Gneezy et Rustichini, 2000 ; Vollan, 2008 ; Bolle et Otto, 2010) ont démontré que l’utilisation d’incitations monétaires pouvait interférer avec les motivations pré-existantes et aboutir à des contre-performances, c’est à dire à une diminution du comportement recherché plutôt qu’à son augmentation. De plus, cet effet serait contagieux (il s’étend à des domaines initialement non concernés par les incitations monétaires) et durable (c’est à dire qu’il perdure même après suppression des incitations monétaires) Par exemple, réalisant une étude concernant la localisation d’un centre de stockage de déchets nucléaires dans deux communes suisses, Frey et Oberholzer-Gee (1997) ont trouvé que le pourcentage de personnes acceptant l’infrastructure polluante dans leur voisinage diminue de 50,4% sans incitations à 24,6% Programme GESSOL 10/24 Les services écosystémiques rendus par les sols : Analyse des régimes incitatifs sous-jacents 05/2013 lorsque des incitations monétaires leur sont proposées. L’explication selon laquelle les incitations monétaires signalent la dangerosité est écartée, car l’augmentation des rémunérations n’entraîne pas de diminutions plus fortes du taux d’acceptation. La focalisation sur les seules motivations extrinsèques est susceptible, sous certaines conditions, d’évincer les motivations intrinsèques et de générer un niveau de production du bien ou service environnemental inférieur à ce qu’il aurait été sans intervention extérieure. En d’autres termes, une politique qui utilise comme seul levier les incitations économiques est susceptible de générer chez l’individu un sentiment d’insatisfaction de voir ses motivations intrinsèques ignorées, non reconnues, non valorisées et le conduisant ainsi à réduire son effort (Frey et Oberholzer-Gee, 1997 ; Gneezy et Rustichini, 2001). Ainsi l’utilisation d’incitations financières, comme dans les MAE peut durablement éroder ou au contraire renforcer de manière significative la propension des acteurs à entreprendre des actions écologiquement préférables qu’ils entreprenaient déjà en l’absence d’incitations financières (phénomène de renforcement ou d’éviction). Notre apport a notamment consisté à vérifier l’existence de ce risque d’effet d’éviction sur des problématiques environnementales et en particulier sur la gestion durable des sols et à explorer quelques stratégies susceptibles de l’atténuer, voire de contribuer à un renforcement des motivations pré-existantes. En effet, la littérature existante n’offrait guère de solutions à l’effet d’éviction, hormis la non-utilisation des incitations monétaires dans certains domaines. Nous sommes allés plus loin en explorant deux stratégies : la direction de l’argent vers la cause ou vers l’individu avec une option où le répondant choisit entre lui-même et la cause et la qualification de la somme sous forme de paiement, ou de dédommagement. Le protocole expérimental consistait en une demande d’action ayant des vertus publiques, demande assortie d’une rémunération ou non. Nous avons d’abord réalisé une étude auprès de 1800 ménages (sur des pratiques proenvironnementales génériques), puis sur un échantillon restreint de viticulteurs (environ 300 viticulteurs contactés et 47 réponses valides), puis sur un échantillon de 2000 viticulteurs de la région montpelliéraine sur des actions en rapport avec la gestion durable des sols. Les actions choisies devaient être réalistes (e.g., utilisation des parcelles à des fins expérimentales, invitation à une réunion relative à la gestion durable des sols à SupAgro). Ces études ont permis de mettre en évidence l’existence d’un effet d’éviction apparemment plus prononcé chez les particuliers en comparaison avec les viticulteurs (Tableaux 3 et 4). Ce moindre effet peut être lié à la nature des relations préexistantes chez les viticulteurs (et autres agriculteurs) où les approches en faveur de l’environnement en général et des sols en particulier sont déjà largement promues à travers des incitations monétaires. Tableau 3 : Taux de participation des ménages en fonction de l’incitation (n=1118) Incitation Montant de l’incitation EUR Taux de participation Pas d’incitation 0 28.66 % Pour l’individu 2 19.38 % Pour l’individu 7 27.27 % Pour une association environnementale 2 21.74 % Pour une association environnementale 7 24.20 % Choix : individu ou association environnementale 2 23.87 % Choix : individu ou association environnementale 7 29.45 % Les résultats concernant les stratégies susceptibles d’atténuer l’effet d’éviction montrent une efficacité relative du fait de laisser l’individu choisir vers qui diriger l’incitation monétaire. Plus concrètement, ce résultat peut correspondre à une stratégie institutionnelle permettant de solliciter les individus monétairement motivés en évitant de décourager les individus intrinsèquement motivés (qui apprécient de pouvoir diriger l’argent vers la cause) (Beretti et al., 2013a). Néanmoins, les résultats méritent des investigations supplémentaires, surtout lorsque l’on prend en compte le critère de coût-efficacité de cette stratégie. Une modélisation analytique de ce mécanisme d’évitement de l’effet d’éviction a également été réalisée et est actuellement soumis en vue de publication (Beretti et al., Soumis). L’investigation pilote menée sur 300 viticulteurs de la région montpelliéraine par téléphone en Juin et Juillet 2010 montre que le risque d’effet d’éviction est bien réel (Tableau 4). Trois activités hypothétiques ont été proposées aux répondants : une visite de leurs parcelles par des spécialistes de sciences du sol à des fins d’analyse et de recherche, une réunion à Montpellier SupAgro sur la gestion plus durable des sols et l’acceptation de boues de station d’épuration sur leurs parcelles. L’échantillon a été divisé en deux sous échantillons, l’un où les activités sont proposées avec une contrepartie Programme GESSOL 11/24 Les services écosystémiques rendus par les sols : Analyse des régimes incitatifs sous-jacents 05/2013 financière faible (20 EUR), l’autre où aucune contrepartie financière n’est proposée. Cette étude nous a permis d’affiner les activités retenues pour l’enquête postale adressée aux plus de 2000 viticulteurs en 2011 et notamment d’écarter l’activité liée aux boues à cause de son caractère très controversée. Tableau 4 : Taux d’acceptation de différentes activités par les viticulteurs selon le traitement (n=47) Visite Réunion Epandage Sans rémunération 86 % 45 % 53 % Rémunération 61 % 36 % 39 % En outre, dans le sous-échantillon où la contrepartie financière est proposée, la moitié des répondants a été soumis à une contrepartie financière de type contrôle (e.g., ‘Etant donné que nous sommes prêts à vous payer 20 EUR pour nous assurer de votre participation, seriez-vous prêt à participer à une telle rencontre ?’) alors que l’autre moitié a été soumis à une contrepartie de type soutien (e.g., ‘Etant donné que nous sommes prêts à vous dédommager à hauteur de 20 EUR si vous venez, seriez-vous prêt à participer à une telle rencontre?’). Les résultats préliminaires liés à la qualification de l’incitation financière semblent montrer un effet non négligeable de l’étiquette attribuée à l’incitation au-delà de son seul montant qui reste identique (Tableau 5). En effet, la situation sans contrepartie financière est toujours celle qui obtient les taux de participation les plus élevés. Les résultats semblent indiquer au moins partiellement que la formulation de l’incitation sous forme de dédommagement réduit l’intensité du risque d’éviction. Néanmoins, le nombre de réponses réellement exploitables (n=47 soit un taux de réponses utilisables de 15,6%) est trop faible pour permettre de tirer des conclusions ayant une significativité statistique crédible. Tableau 5 : Taux d’acceptation de différentes activités par les viticulteurs selon le traitement Visite Réunion Epandage Sans rémunération 86 % 45 % 53 % Rémunération contrôle 72 % 27 % 36 % Rémunération soutien 53 % 43 % 45 % Grâce à ce pilote, nous avons pu soumettre un questionnaire affiné à environ 2000 viticulteurs par voie postale, début 2011. Après de nombreux tests et entretiens préliminaires aves des experts et des viticulteurs, tout a été fait pour avoir un questionnaire bref (1 page) et identique entre les traitements, sauf sur un mot (payer versus dédommager). Dans ce cas, les résultats relatifs à la seconde stratégie 4 sur la qualification des sommes versées en tant que paiement (contrôle ) ou dédommagement 5 (soutien ) par rapport à l’absence de contrepartie financière sont surprenants (Tableau 6). En effet, tous les tests statistiques visant à vérifier d’éventuelles différences entre les traitements sont non significatifs. Même si ces résultats ne confirment pas les résultats de l’étude pilote, ils indiquent que la proposition d’une contrepartie financière faible n’a pas eu d’effets sur l’acceptation de l’activité proposée, en l’occurrence une ½ journée de rencontre à Montpellier SupAgro rassemblant viticulteurs, chercheurs et autres acteurs du sol pour réfléchir ensemble à l’avenir des sols du Languedoc6 Roussillon et aux stratégies d’une gestion plus durable . Tableau 6: Taux de réponse et d’acceptation des viticulteurs selon le traitement (n=1950) Traitement Témoin Traitement Paiement Traitement (n=656) (n=645) Dédommagement (n=649) Taux de réponses 9,45 % 8,22 % 8,01 % Taux d’acceptation 4,72 % 4,03 % 3,7 % La principale conclusion de cette section est que le risque d’effet d’éviction est réel, notamment dans le cadre des politiques visant à encourager l’adoption de pratiques préférables à travers l’utilisation de contreparties financières surtout si elles sont modestes. Il est également crucial de veiller à la direction 4 ‘Nous nous engageons à vous payer 20 EUR pour votre participation.’ ‘Nous nous engageons à vous dédommager de 20 EUR pour votre participation.’ 6 Cette réunion a effectivement été organisée ultérieurement et a permis la restitution de certains résultats des recherches menées au sein du projet ECOSOL. Les agriculteurs présents ont tous reçus la contrepartie financière proposée, indépendamment du traitement auquel ils appartenaient lors de l’enquête postale. Cette option a été retenue afin d’éviter tout sentiment de discrimination entre les participants. 5 Programme GESSOL 12/24 Les services écosystémiques rendus par les sols : Analyse des régimes incitatifs sous-jacents 05/2013 et à la qualification des sommes utilisées qui peuvent renforcer ce risque ou au contraire le diminuer. Dans cet ordre d’idée, les représentants des producteurs en agriculture biologique (FNAB) ont récemment milité en faveur d’une ‘rémunération de reconnaissance’. 6. Les effets de formulation Comme l’a abordé de manière indirecte la section précédente, les individus ne réagissent pas uniquement aux changements nets, mais également en se basant sur une situation de référence. Ainsi, une proposition aboutissant à un résultat net identique générera des réactions différentes en fonction du point de référence utilisé par les individus. Contrairement à l’idée prédominante, Tversky et Kahneman (1981) démontrent que les choix faits par un individu dépendent non seulement des caractéristiques objectives des alternatives qui s’offrent à lui mais aussi de la manière dont elles lui sont présentées. Dans le domaine environnemental, l’une des mesures les plus souvent avancées pour lutter contre le réchauffement climatique est d’augmenter le prix des activités émettrices de gaz à effet de serre de manière à refléter les dommages environnementaux causés. Ces activités devenant plus coûteuses sont donc rendus moins attractives. Dans une étude empirique, Hardisty et al. (2010) montrent que le terme utilisé pour désigner une augmentation de coût identique sur des vols aériens (taxe versus compensation) peut avoir un impact considérable sur l’acceptabilité de la mesure. En effet, le même supplément de prix qualifié de compensation (offset) est plus facilement accepté que si ce dernier est qualifié de taxe. En d’autres termes, la même incitation/désincitation en termes de montant peut entraîner, selon la formulation employée (e.g. aide, indemnisation, subvention, dédommagement, rémunération, paiement, soutien, compensation), des comportements différenciés. Appliquée au domaine agricole, ce résultat nous pousse à penser que la manière dont les agriculteurs perçoivent une incitation donnée, comme une compensation ou comme une récompense, peut influencer leurs décisions d’adopter ou non les mesures suggérées. Le Ministère de l’agriculture français a ainsi préféré qualifier les aides financières des MAE du terme neutre de « paiements agroenvironnementaux ». Cependant, l’insistance de la Commission européenne pour que ces paiements ne financent que des coûts supplémentaires ou des manques à gagner a le clair désavantage de signaler aux agriculteurs qu’un changement vers des pratiques plus respectueuses de l’environnement ne peut pas se faire sans subir une perte, ce qui ne correspond pas forcément à la réalité, la baisse du coût des intrants pouvant souvent compenser une baisse de rendements. Par ailleurs, elle indique aussi que la collectivité ne considère pas le changement de pratiques comme générateur d’un ‘service environnemental’ dont la fourniture par l’agriculteur pourrait être ‘récompensée’. Même si le montant payé est le même, l’effet psychologique peut être très différent, puisqu’il attire l’attention de l’agriculteur sur les conséquences individuelles négatives qu’il aurait à subir au lieu de valoriser sa contribution à un impact collectif positif. 61. L’effet des causes de la dégradation des sols sur le consentement à payer Lors de la mise en place d’une politique visant à promouvoir une gestion durable des sols, vaut-il mieux la présenter comme une amélioration nette ou comme la restauration d’un état passé ? Le soutien des individus et leur consentement à payer est-il identique, quelle que soit la cause de la dégradation ? De nombreux économistes et psychologues ont remis en question l’idée conventionnelle que l’utilité des agents dépend exclusivement du résultat en suggérant que des points de référence et des causes alternatives d’une situation donnée combinés au résultat peuvent modifier l’utilité perçue (Bulte et al., 2005 voir également Benz et al., 2004). Selon la théorie des perspectives, le point de référence détermine si le changement proposé est perçu comme un gain ou comme une perte, ce qui va alors modifier la façon dont l’individu évalue les alternatives. En fait, l’asymétrie de la fonction d’utilité implique qu’une perte par rapport à un point de référence va avoir un impact plus grand sur la prise de décision qu’un gain de valeur équivalente à partir du même point de référence (Gregory et al., 1993). L’aversion aux pertes signifie que les individus sont plus motivés et sont disposés à payer davantage pour éviter une perte que pour acquérir un gain de la même valeur. En parallèle, une littérature réduite mais grandissante souligne que le consentement à payer (CAP) pour lutter contre des problèmes environnementaux peut varier selon l’origine naturelle ou anthropique du problème en question. La combinaison de ces deux paramètres, point de référence et causes alternatives, reste néanmoins rare dans la littérature. L’objectif de cette opération était de combler cette lacune dans la littérature en utilisant une enquête quasi-expérimentale réalisée auprès de résidents français en rapport avec la bétonisation. Notre principale hypothèse est que les individus ne prennent pas en compte les points de références de façon isolée, mais qu’ils considèrent également le contexte, tel que des causes Programme GESSOL 13/24 Les services écosystémiques rendus par les sols : Analyse des régimes incitatifs sous-jacents 05/2013 alternatives susceptibles d’expliquer l’état actuel. En d’autres termes, même avec des points de référence identiques, les individus peuvent se comporter différemment selon les causes alternatives ayant conduit à ces points. Notre étude porte sur les services écosystémiques fournis par les sols, qui contrairement aux autres compartiments tels que l’air ou l’eau, n’a reçu que très peu d’attention de la part des économistes. Plusieurs recommandations en termes de politiques publiques sont formulées, suggérant des améliorations à faible coût susceptibles d’engendrer d’importants bénéfices. Par exemple, un élément récurrent de nos investigations est la sensibilité différenciée des individus par rapport à l’origine ‘perçue’ des fonds (et pas uniquement par rapport à l’arbitrage coûts-bénéfices des arrangements proposés), un peu comme si tous les euros n’avaient pas la même valeur. Nous testons ces hypothèses en interrogeant 1760 individus de Lunel (34400) et de Sommières (30250), des communes touchées par de récentes inondations, à propos de l’importance qu’ils accordent à un programme d’amélioration des sols, susceptible de contribuer à une diminution des risques d’inondation. Selon le traitement, le changement proposé, identique dans chacun des scénarios, est présenté comme une amélioration nette, comme la restauration d’une perte, comme la restauration d’une perte due à l’activité humaine, ou encore comme la restauration d’une perte due à des phénomènes naturels. Nous interrogeons également les sujets sur leur CAP pour ce programme. A ces deux variables, nous ajoutons une troisième variable : le taux de réponse, comme indicateur supplémentaire de l’intérêt porté au projet présenté. Le détail des investigations empiriques est disponible dans Beretti et Grolleau (2013, Soumis pour publication). Les résultats montrent que le taux de réponse est systématiquement et significativement plus faible pour le traitement ‘gain’ comparé à chacun des traitements ‘perte’ (Tableau 7). Etonnamment, l’intérêt déclaré pour le programme est plus important lorsqu’une cause humaine est avancée par rapport à une cause naturelle, alors que pour le CAP, l’effet est inversé. La restauration d’une perte ayant une cause expliquée, quelle qu’elle soit, entraîne un CAP plus important que la restauration d’une perte non expliquée. Ce dernier résultat n’est toutefois pas significatif au niveau statistique. Tableau 7 : Résultats clés par rapport aux différentes causes Traitement Nombre de Taux de Intérêt pour le réponses réponse (%) programme Gain (G) Perte non expliquée (UL) Perte causée par la nature (NC) Perte causée par l’homme (MC) Total 15 33 32 28 108 3.52 7.99 7.71 6.65 6.45 5.36 5.61 5.19 6.04 5.56 CAP pour le programme (EUR) 14 13.44 17.10 15.36 15.09 A nouveau, nous avons réalisé une extension de cette expérience en interrogeant quelques viticulteurs de la région (n=47) par voie téléphonique sur l’intérêt qu’ils portent, ainsi que sur leur CAP, concernant sur un programme d’amélioration/restauration de la teneur en Matière Organique (MO) des sols. A la lecture des résultats, il convient néanmoins de rappeler, ce ne sont pas tant les montants en valeur absolue qui signifient quelque chose, mais la comparaison des CAP entre les différents scénarios. Les résultats semblent partiellement confirmer nos hypothèses, notamment en termes de CAP. Tableau 8 : CAP des viticulteurs pour un programme d’amélioration des sols Programme d’amélioration environnementale présenté comme… Consentement à payer pour le programme (EUR) … un gain net 16.0 … la restauration d’une perte non expliquée 12.5 … la restauration d’une perte due à des causes humaines 15.7 … la restauration d’une perte due à des causes naturelles 20.0 N 10 12 14 11 Ces résultats (Tableau 8) sont plus de nature indicative car ils ne permettent pas de générer des résultats statistiquement robustes en raison du faible nombre d’observations. Ces recherches soulignent notamment l’importance des points de référence et de la causalité (réelle ou perçue) dans la réaction des agents par rapport aux politiques liées aux sols. Programme GESSOL 14/24 Les services écosystémiques rendus par les sols : Analyse des régimes incitatifs sous-jacents 05/2013 62. L’origine des incitations L’analyse économique traditionnelle suppose que les alternatives sont évaluées en fonction de leur contenu objectif et non en fonction de celui qui les propose. Néanmoins, plusieurs travaux, notamment en psychologie sociale, démontrent que les individus, en particulier dans un processus de négociation, pratiquent une sorte de ‘réaction dévaluatoire’. Par exemple, des individus ont jugé très différemment le même plan de paix au Proche Orient en fonction de l’origine attribuée : la partie palestinienne, la 7 partie israélienne ou une tierce partie (Maoz, 2006) . Sans approfondir les mécanismes sous-jacents à ce type d’obstacles à la négociation, l’intuition est relativement simple. La négociation est un processus social interactif dans lequel chaque partie ne cesse de tirer des conclusions au sujet des intentions, des motifs et de la bonne foi de l’autre (Mnookin, 2006). Ce qui est proposé par un adversaire se fait vraisemblablement au détriment de l’autre partie, d’où une suspicion ou une résistance liée à l’origine de la proposition. Ross et Stillinger (1991) arguent ainsi que la proposition (l’incitation) faite par un individu considéré comme un adversaire subit généralement une ‘dévalorisation’, du fait de son origine. De manière concrète, ce biais pourrait expliquer des réactions des agriculteurs très différentes à des propositions pro-environnementales pourtant identiques mais dont la source serait différente (e.g. bureaucrates bruxellois versus syndicats agricoles). La principale implication de ce biais est de porter une attention toute particulière à l’attribution que peuvent faire les agents concernés à une proposition. Par exemple, certains auteurs (e.g., Mnookin, 2006) arguent que l’intervention d’une tierce partie indépendante et crédible ou le fait de permettre aux agents visés de s’attribuer la mesure envisagée peuvent considérablement influencer son niveau d’acceptation et de soutien. Afin de tester cet effet, nous avons réalisé une expérience pilote en Tunisie sur l’acceptation d’une taxe visant à promouvoir une gestion plus durable des sols. Etant donné le contexte instable en Tunisie et les enjeux qui pourraient sembler largement prioritaires par rapport aux sols, nous avons voulu tester si le soutien des répondants à une mesure hypothétique parfaitement identique différerait en fonction de l’origine de la mesure. Les résultats montrent que le soutien à la taxe (mesuré sur une échelle de 1 [pas de soutien] à 5 [soutien total]) augmente significativement quand ce sont les écologistes ou les scientifiques qui sont à l’origine de cette taxe par rapport à une situation neutre, c’est-à-dire sans préciser l’origine. Par contre, il n’y a pas de différence significative entre l’origine écologiste et l’origine scientifique. Cette configuration reste la même quel que soit le genre des participants. Tableau 9 : Réponse moyenne selon l’origine de la taxe (écologistes vs scientifiques vs neutre) Ecolos Scientifiques Neutre Test de Wilcoxon (40) (40) (40) E/S E/N S/N Réponse moyenne 3,65 3,22 2,5 ns *** ** Une expérience a également été menée à Madagascar en juin 2013 pour étudier le soutien des individus à un programme de conservation des sols dans un design 2X2 croisant l’origine de l’aide (organisation d’agriculteurs locaux versus organisme international) et la qualification de celle-ci (rémunération versus indemnisation). 746 étudiants de l’université d’Antaranivo ont été sollicités pour évaluer un programme de conservation des sols, notamment en lui attribuant sur une échelle de Likert une note de 1 (très négatif) à 7 (très positif). Les résultats sont encore préliminaires, mais ils indiquent que l’origine des fonds et leur qualification influencent le degré de soutien accordé au programme considéré. En effet, les gens évaluent plus positivement un programme au contenu identique lorsque ce dernier est une indemnisation d’un organisme international (5,3) que lorsque ce dernier est un 8 paiement accordé par une organisation d’agriculteurs locaux (4,8) . Dans le cas des mesures de politiques liées aux sols, au moins deux suggestions peuvent être faites pour mobiliser positivement ce biais. Le premier est de responsabiliser les agriculteurs dans le montage du cahier des charges. S’ils se sentent parties prenantes dans la construction de la MAE, ils seront plus prêts à s’engager par la suite. Cela peut se faire d’une part par des processus de concertation et de co-décision avec les représentants de la profession agricoles, et d’autre part de 7 Bien que cet exemple soit éloigné des considérations liées aux sols, nous l’utilisons, car il est très parlant et généralement considéré comme un exemple fondateur de ce courant. 8 La différence est statistiquement significative à 1%. Programme GESSOL 15/24 Les services écosystémiques rendus par les sols : Analyse des régimes incitatifs sous-jacents 05/2013 façon plus individuelle en invitant les agriculteurs à soumettre leur propre cahier des charges via des systèmes d’appel d’offre qui existent depuis longtemps aux Etats-Unis ou en Australie (Saïd et Thoyer, 2007). De manière plus globale, au-delà de la conception des programmes et des instruments des politiques, il semble crucial de ne pas négliger les termes employés et le contexte évoqué dans l’esprit des agents sollicités. En effet, ce contexte joue un rôle déterminant, qui jusque là a trop souvent été négligé ou relégué à l’arrière-plan alors les options retenues (sans qu’il s’agisse forcément d’un choix intentionnel) pourraient contribuer à renforcer ou à diminuer les objectifs visés. 7. Le timing des incitations : différer l’application d’une politique pour renforcer son acceptation ? Un résultat relativement robuste de l’économie comportementale se rapporte à l’incohérence temporelle des préférences qui se traduit par une survalorisation du présent et une dévalorisation du futur (Frederick et al., 2002). Or, certaines innovations environnementales en faveur d’une gestion plus durable des sols se caractérisent par des coûts privés immédiats (e.g. augmentation des coûts de production, perte de statut social dans une communauté donnée) et des bénéfices futurs ayant souvent, en outre, une dimension collective. En conséquence, les pertes immédiates sont souvent survalorisées alors que les gains futurs mêmes importants sont sous-valorisés, du fait d’une actualisation hyperbolique des gains. Par exemple, l’adoption de l’agriculture biologique suppose généralement des coûts immédiats et des bénéfices décalés dans le temps. Ainsi, si les agriculteurs font une actualisation hyperbolique de leurs gains, la valeur accordée à ces bénéfices futurs serait faible. Cette actualisation hyperbolique, par opposition à l’actualisation exponentielle de l’analyse néoclassique, génère également une tendance à la procrastination, qui permet aux exploitants, tout en reconnaissant les bienfaits de certaines innovations agro-environnementales, de repousser constamment leur adoption à plus tard. Nous nous sommes intéressés à une proposition récente s’appuyant sur ce biais afin d’accroître l’acceptation de politiques socialement désirables. Puisque les individus ont tendance à dévaloriser les coûts et bénéfices futurs avec une forte préférence pour le présent, il peut être opportun de leur proposer des choix pro-environnementaux certes coûteux, mais dont l’application et donc le coût est différé dans le futur. En proposant aux agents une décision immédiate, mais dont les coûts et les bénéfices sont différés, il serait possible d’obtenir un soutien plus important (Roger et Bazerman, 2008). Nous avons voulu répliquer dans un contexte différent les protocoles proposés par Roger et Bazerman (2008). Nous avons ainsi réalisé une enquête auprès de deux échantillons : un échantillon aléatoire (n=185) constitué de personnes abordées à proximité de la principale place de Montpellier et l’autre de convenance (n=58) sur leur soutien (sur une échelle de 1 [aucun soutien] à 9 [soutien total]) vis à vis d’une taxe visant à promouvoir une gestion durable des sols. Chaque sous échantillon a été soumis à un questionnaire proposant soit une taxe prenant effet immédiatement ou dans deux ans. Contrairement aux hypothèses et aux résultats obtenus par Rogers et Bazerman (2008), nos résultats ne mettent pas en évidence d’effet lié au décalage dans le temps de l’application de la mesure. Plusieurs explications ont été avancées ainsi que la nécessité d’investigations supplémentaires (Tableau 10) (Grolleau et Mzoughi, Soumis). Tableau 10 : Soutien à une taxe relative à la gestion des sols selon l’entrée en vigueur Echantillon aléatoire (N=185) Echantillon de convenance (N=58) Present Future Wilcoxon Present Future Wilcoxon (N=92) (N=93) test (N=28) (N=30) test Moyenne des 4,63 4,74 ns 4,85 4,73 ns réponses En résumé, alors que l’attention a surtout été dirigée sur le montant des incitations en jeu, plusieurs études (e.g., Duflo et al., 2011) soutiennent que la répartition optimale de ces dernières dans le temps en fonction des contraintes des agents peut s’avérer plus efficace et moins coûteuse, surtout dans un contexte de fortes contraintes budgétaires. Une piste que nous aurions souhaité explorer aurait été d’évaluer si les agriculteurs s’engageant dans des démarches privées (e.g., Lu’Harmony) ou publiques (e.g., MAE) en faveur d’une gestion plus durable des sols ont des préférences temporelles différentes des agriculteurs dits ‘conventionnels’ sur des dimensions privées et publiques. Programme GESSOL 16/24 Les services écosystémiques rendus par les sols : Analyse des régimes incitatifs sous-jacents 05/2013 8. La dynamique des actions : L’effet de compensation morale Nous avons également consacré une partie de nos recherches à la dynamique des actions en faveur de l’environnement et des sols en particulier. En effet, des recherches récentes montrent qu’une ‘bonne action’ pourrait contribuer à ‘désinhiber l’individu en lui permettant d’entreprendre des actions ‘moins souhaitables’ par la suite, comme si l’individu recherche une sorte d’équilibre entre bonnes et mauvaises actions. Cet effet de compensation morale demeure relativement méconnu dans la littérature académique en sciences économiques et juridiques, hormis quelques travaux récents qui lui sont consacrés dans divers domaines (e.g., Mazar et Zhong, 2010 ; Khan et Dhar, 2006). Par exemple Woodyard (2009) explique que les conducteurs de véhicules hybrides roulent plus, ce qui peut se traduire par un effet global défavorable à la préservation de l’environnement. L’attention limitée accordée à ce biais comportemental contraste avec son impact potentiel qui pourrait notamment expliquer les effets contre-productifs de certaines politiques visant à encourager des comportements pro-sociaux, comme la préservation de l’environnement. En effet, plusieurs exemples anecdotiques montrent qu’une bonne action dans un domaine environnemental (e.g., recycler ou économiser l’eau) peut inconsciemment ‘autoriser’ l’individu à commettre une action moins désirable dans un domaine identique ou différent (Clot et al., A paraître). L’intuition sous-jacente serait d'appliquer ce concept aux comportements favorables aux sols au sein d'une population pour vérifier s'il existe une sorte de 'comptabilité' où les actions déployées donneraient lieu à des substitutions, à des complémentarités plus ou moins équivalentes pouvant aboutir à un effet global incertain et dans certains cas à une dégradation des sols (ou d’autres éléments du capital naturel) plutôt qu’à leur amélioration. Nos travaux nous ont permis de définir et de caractériser l’effet de compensation morale à différents niveaux d’analyse intra-individuel et inter-individuel tout en soulignant les risques d’effets pervers sur lesquels il peut déboucher. Ce biais comportemental est en effet susceptible de remettre en question l’efficacité de certaines politiques. Nous utilisons à cette fin des études et des exemples tirés de différents domaines, notamment en rapport avec les actions en faveur de l’environnement. Nous avons identifié plusieurs pistes de recherche visant à mieux comprendre les conséquences directes et indirectes de l’effet de compensation morale, tout en mentionnant quelques stratégies mobilisables afin d’atténuer ce biais (Clot et al. A paraître). Par exemple, nous vérifions si le fait que la bonne action soit rémunérée impacte le risque d’effet de licence. De même, que se passe t-il lorsque la bonne action est imposée, par exemple par voie réglementaire ? Se pourrait-il que des exigences réglementaires plus sévères sur certains aspects liés aux sols se traduisent par des comportements moins désirables dans des domaines non couverts par la réglementation ? Les résultats des expériences menées sur l’effet de licence sont en cours d’exploitation et ne seront disponibles sous une forme diffusable que d’ici quelques mois. 9. Partenariats mis en place, projetés, envisagés Le projet a permis aux chercheurs impliqués de solliciter régulièrement des spécialistes du sol afin de discuter de la validité et de la crédibilité des enquêtes envisagées. Les travaux engagés dans le cadre du projet ECOSOL ont permis de développer des partenariats plus ou moins forts avec différents catégories d’acteurs que l’on peut grosso modo classer en quatre catégories : - des économistes et autres chercheurs en sciences sociales (sociologie, psychologie) en France et à l’étranger ayant un intérêt pour les questions liées aux sols (e.g., G. Libecap, L. 9 McCann, M. Bell, S. El Harbi ) des chercheurs et experts en sciences du sol et/ou en services écosystémiques (e.g., Y. Le Bissonais, N. Gallai, P. Coll, JM. Ouvry) des praticiens en prise avec les politiques environnementales et agro-environnementales à différents niveaux et dans des institutions diverses (e.g. Ministères en charge de l’agriculture, de l’écologie, OCDE) (G. Lecat, A. Darpeix, T. Uetake), des utilisateurs directs des sols, notamment des agriculteurs individuels qui constituent de véritables personnes ressources et des associations diverses (e.g., Alterre Bourgogne, AREAS) qui ont exprimé de l’intérêt pour les résultats du projet 9 Un partenariat privilégié est en train de se développer avec le laboratoire d’économie expérimentale de Sousse (Tunisie). Programme GESSOL 17/24 Les services écosystémiques rendus par les sols : Analyse des régimes incitatifs sous-jacents 05/2013 Malheureusement, le départ anticipé d’Antoine Beretti (et dans une certaine mesure l’absence du porteur du projet) a d’une certaine façon perturbé et menacé la pérennité de ces relations. Aujourd’hui, certains de ces contacts peuvent être qualifiés latents, mais pourraient aisément être réactivés. 10. Conclusion générale « The main reason behavioral science should be part of the policy debate is that it provides in some cases a perspective that is vastly different from economics. » (Amir et al., 2005) Sans remettre en question l’utilité des politiques visant à modifier le comportement des utilisateurs du sol en recourant aux (dés)incitations monétaires et à l’information, nous avons montré que cette vision est réductrice et que l’efficacité de ces dernières est également déterminée par d’autres paramètres souvent ignorés ou relégués au second plan. Par exemple, au-delà du seul montant des incitations financières, nous avons montré l’importance d’intégrer dans la réflexion des décideurs divers paramètres comme les causes attribuées aux problèmes visés, la formulation, l’origine et le timing des incitations. Ce projet, au-delà des exemples étudiés et des biais examinés est d’inviter les chercheurs et les décideurs à prendre en compte de manière plus systématique la coexistence de deux systèmes opératoires dans la prise de décision. Nos résultats suggèrent plusieurs pistes pratiques qui si elles étaient confirmées pourraient générer des effets de premier ordre pour des coûts relativement faibles. En outre, les résultats de quelques expériences sont en cours d’exploitation et devraient déboucher sur des résultats dans des délais relativement brefs. Bien que notre objectif soit d’encourager à repenser les modalités de conception et d’application des politiques en faveur d’une gestion plus durable des sols, nous ne saurions passer sous silence un certain nombre de critiques formulées à l’encontre de l’économie comportementale, comme l’absence de cadre d’analyse homogène et fédérateur conduisant à une juxtaposition de petits modèles, l’ignorance des interactions entre biais, le recours excessif à des expériences de laboratoire ne reflétant pas forcément les conditions de prise de décision dans le monde réel ou le risque de dérive vers une forme de paternalisme ou de manipulation (Beretti et al., 2013b). Ce débat en cours et loin d’être stabilisé permet néanmoins des avancées remarquables de part et d’autres. Sans sombrer dans le ‘biais de déformation professionnelle’, nous faisons le vœu que ce projet contribue à un dialogue constructif aboutissant à des interventions plus performantes. 11. 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C.,2010, Do green products make us better people? Psychological Science, 21(4): 494-498. McCann, L., Colby, B., Easter, KW., Kasterine, A., Kuperan KV., 2005, Transaction Cost Measurement for Evaluating Environmental Policies, Ecological Economics, 52(4): 527-542 Mnookin, R., 2006, Surmonter les obstacles dans la résolution des conflits, Revue Française de Gestion, 154 : 237-254. Rogers, T., Bazerman, M.H. 2008. Future lock-in: Future implementation increases selection of ‘should’ choices, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 106 (1): 1-20. Ross, L., Stillinger, C. 1991. Barriers to conflict resolution. Negotiation Journal, 8: 389-404. Thoyer, S., Said, S., 2007, Mesures agri-environnementales : quels mécanismes d’allocation ? Etudes et Synthèses, LAMETA, ES 2007-01, http://www.lameta.univ-montp1.fr/Documents/ES200701.pdf Salhi, S., Grolleau, G., Mzoughi, N., & Sutan, A., 2012, How can positional concerns prevent the adoption of socially desirable innovations? Journal of Economic Issues, 46, 799-810. Shogren, JF.; Taylor, LO., 2008, On Behavioral-Environmental Economics, Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 2(1): 26–44. Suntein, C., Thaler, R., 2008, Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness, Yale University Press. Venkatachalam, L., 2008, Behavioral Economics for Environmental Policy, Ecological Economics, 67 (4): 640 - 645. Vollan B., 2008, Socio-ecological explanations for crowding-out effects from economic field experiments in southern Africa, Ecological Economics, 67: 560-573. Woodyard, C., 2009, Hybrid car owners drive more and get more traffic tickets, Usa Today, http://content.usatoday.com/communities/driveon/post/2009/07/6849 4710/1. 12. Liste des opérations de valorisation et de transfert issues du contrat PUBLICATIONS SCIENTIFIQUES Publications scientifiques parues Beretti, A., Figuières, C., Grolleau, G., 2013, Using money to motivate both "saints" and "sinners": a field experiment on motivational crowding-Out, Kyklos, 66, 63-77. Beretti, A., Figuières, C., Grolleau, G., 2013, Behavioral innovations: The missing capital in sustainable development?, Ecological Economics, 89: 187?195. Grolleau, G., McCann, L., 2012, Designing watershed programs to pay farmers for water quality services: Case studies of Munich and New York City. Ecological Economics, 76, 87-94. Salhi, S., Grolleau, G., Mzoughi, N., & Sutan, A., 2012, How can positional concerns prevent the adoption of socially desirable innovations? Journal of Economic Issues, 46, 799-810. Publications scientifiques à paraître Clot, S., Grolleau, G., Ibanez, L., Ndodjang, P., L'effet de compensation morale ou comment les ‘bonnes actions’ peuvent aboutir à une situation indésirable, Revue Economique. Programme GESSOL 20/24 Les services écosystémiques rendus par les sols : Analyse des régimes incitatifs sous-jacents 05/2013 Publications scientifiques prévues Beretti, A., Grolleau, G., Do Past States and Causes of Soil Degradation Affect Stated Willingnessto-Pay Values? Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Survey, Soumis pour publication à Journal of Environmental Management. Grolleau, G., Mzoughi, N., Helping People to Do what They Should by Suggesting Future Implementation: Does it Work?, Soumis pour publication à Journal of Environmental Management. Beretti, A., Figuières, C., Grolleau, G., An instrument that could turn crowding-out into crowding-in, Soumis pour publication à Economica. Plusieurs autres publications sont envisagées ou en cours de rédaction notamment sur d’autres biais mentionnés dans ce rapport (effet de compensation morale, réaction dévaluatoire, effet des sanctions sur les comportements pro-environnementaux, etc.) COLLOQUES Participations passées à des colloques Beretti, A., Grolleau, G., 2010, Do Past States and Causes of Soil Degradation Affect Stated Willingness-to-Pay Values? Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Survey, International Workshop ‘A Primer in Economic Analysis of Soil-Related Ecosystem Services’, 18 Novembre 2010, Montpellier (France). Grolleau, G., McCann, L., 2010, Designing Watershed Programs to Pay Farmers for Water Quality Services: Case Studies of Munich and New York City, International Workshop ‘A Primer in Economic Analysis of Soil-Related Ecosystem Services’, 18 Novembre 2010, Montpellier (France). Beretti, A., Bougherara, D., Grolleau, G., Mzoughi, N., 2010, The Determinants of On-Farm Sewage Sludge Spreading, International Workshop ‘A Primer in Economic Analysis of Soil-Related Ecosystem Services’, 18 Novembre 2010, Montpellier (France). Beretti, A., Grolleau, G., 2011, Do Past States and Causes of Soil Degradation Affect Stated Willingness-to-Pay Values? Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Survey, Experimental Community of Southern Europe Workshop (SEET), Février 2011, Agadir (Maroc). Beretti, A., Figuières, C., Grolleau, G., 2011, Does Directing Monetary Incentives to the Cause Reduce Crowding-out? A Simple Field Experiment, Experimental Community of Southern Europe Workshop (SEET), Février 2011, Agadir (Maroc). Beretti, A., Grolleau, G., 2011, Les services écosystémiques rendus par les sols: Analyse des régimes incitatifs sous-jacents, Séminaire de suivi GESSOL 3, Mai 2011, Tours (France). Beretti, A., Figuières, C., Grolleau, G., 2011, Does Directing Monetary Incentives to the Cause Reduce Crowding-out? A Simple Field Experiment, International Meeting on Experimental and Behavioral Economics (IMEBE), Avril 2011, Barcelone (Espagne). Beretti, A., Figuières, C., Grolleau, G., 2011, Does Directing Monetary Incentives to the Cause Reduce Crowding-out? A Simple Field Experiment, Association Française d’Economie Expérimentale Meeting (ASFEE), Mai 2011, Fort-de-France (Martinique). Beretti, A., Grolleau, G., 2012, L’effet des biais cognitifs et comportementaux sur les politiques publiques liées aux sols, 11èmes Journées d’Etude des Sols (AFES), 19‐23 mars 2012, Versailles (France). Ibanez, L., Grolleau, G., Clot, S., 2012, Do good deeds make bad people?, International Meeting on Experimental and Behavioral Economics (IMEBE 2012). Mars 2012, Castellon (Espagne). Ibanez, L., Grolleau, G., Clot, S., 2012, Cheap Goodwill. The best deal?, European Association of Programme GESSOL 21/24 Les services écosystémiques rendus par les sols : Analyse des régimes incitatifs sous-jacents 05/2013 Agricultural Economists, EAAE Seminar, July 2012, Castelldefels (Espagne). Bekir, I., El Harbi, S., Grolleau, G., Sutan, A., 2012, Do You Prefer Having More or More than Others? Comparing Evidence from hypothetical surveys and laboratory experiments, Association Française d’Economie Expérimentale Meeting (ASFEE), June 2012, Montpellier (France). Participations futures à des colloques Plusieurs présentations sont prévues en fonction du degré d’avancement des papiers en cours, notamment lors de l’ European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (EAERE) en 2013 à Toulouse. THÈSES Thèses passées Beretti, A., 2012, Essais sur l’économie comportementale appliquée aux enjeux environnementaux, Université de Montpellier 1 – Montpellier SupAgro, Janvier 2012. Thèses en cours Sophie, C., Application de quelques biais de l’économie comportementale aux politiques environnementales, Soutenance prévue en 2014 (Certains essais prévus dans la thèse relève d’opérations prévues dans le projet ECOSOL). ARTICLES DE VALORISATION-VULGARISATION Articles de valorisation parus Asselineau, A., Galia, F., Sutan, A., Grolleau, G. (2013) "L'avenir de l'agriculture se joue dans un océan bleu", La Tribune, http://www.latribune.fr, 26 février 2013. Articles de valorisation à paraître Néant Articles de valorisation prévus Plusieurs tribunes (e.g. Huffington Post, La Tribune, Le Monde) sont envisagées dans des quotidiens papiers ou en ligne au fur et à mesure de la parution de certains articles. Des contacts sont en cours avec une journaliste spécialisée (Anne Sophie Novel) sur les apports de l’économie comportementale pour une conception renouvelée des politiques environnementales, notamment par rapport aux sols. Des articles sont également envisagés dans des revues à lectorat plus large (e.g., Responsabilité et Environnement, Aménagement et Nature). AUTRES ACTIONS VERS LES MÉDIAS Actions vers les médias effectuées et Actions vers les médias prévues Voir le point précédent ENSEIGNEMENT – FORMATION Enseignements/formations dispensés Etant enseignant à Montpellier SupAgro, j’ai pu proposer des séquences relatives à la gestion des services écosystémiques rendus par les sols sous différentes formes (études de cas, cours magistraux, mémoires, etc.), auprès des élèves ingénieurs agronomes (notamment dans la spécialisation TERPPA (Territoires et Ressources: Politiques Publiques et Acteurs) et du master recherche A2D2 (Agriculture Alimentation et Développement Durable). Certains des travaux menés en compagnie de N. Mzoughi ont également été ré-investis dans certains des enseignements qu’il assure au sein du master professionnel ‘Gestion Qualité Production Végétales’ à l’Université d’Avignon. Programme GESSOL 22/24 Les services écosystémiques rendus par les sols : Analyse des régimes incitatifs sous-jacents 05/2013 Enseignements/formations prévus Etant en disponibilité, rien n’est programmé jusqu’à mon retour à Montpellier SupAgro, hormis quelques interventions ponctuelles. EXPERTISES Expertises menées Grolleau, G., 2013, The French Case Study: The Vittel Case, Etude de cas dans le cadre du rapport de l’OCDE, Providing Agri-environmental Public Goods through Collective Action, COM/TAD/CA/ENV/EPOC(2012)11/FINAL. Expertises en cours et expertises prévues Néant pour l’instant MÉTHODOLOGIES (GUIDES…) Méthodologies produites Plusieurs de nos recherches ont montré l’utilité des expériences pilotes permettant d’affiner très significativement et à moindre coût les protocoles expérimentaux avant d’envisager leur utilisation à plus grande échelle. De plus, les expériences peuvent s’avérer extrêmement utiles pour anticiper les réactions des acteurs à certains designs de politique environnementale. Méthodologies en cours d’élaboration et méthodologies prévues Nous avons aussi exploré la confiance que l’on peut faire aux questionnaires quasi-hypothétiques en comparaison des expériences monétairement motivés (incentive compatibility). AUTRES Le projet ECOSOL a notamment permis l’organisation de deux manifestations, l’une d’orientation plutôt académique et l’autre plus à des fins de transfert et d’échange : - International Workshop ‘A Primer in Economic Analysis of Soil-Related Ecosystem Services’, 18 novembre 2010, Montpellier (France) La gestion (plus) durable des sols, Demi-journée d’échanges, 22 juin 2012, Montpellier (France) Un compte rendu a été diffusé aux acteurs présents lors de cette ½ journée d’échange. Programme GESSOL 23/24 Les services écosystémiques rendus par les sols : Analyse des régimes incitatifs sous-jacents 05/2013 Annexe : Textes des publications Nous joignons les publications parues en lien avec le projet ECOSOL. Les restrictions concernant leur utilisation sont celles définies par les supports de publication et auxquels les auteurs ont souscrits. Publications scientifiques parues Beretti, A., Figuières, C., Grolleau, G., 2013, Using money to motivate both "saints" and "sinners": a field experiment on motivational crowding-Out, Kyklos, 66, 63-77. Beretti, A., Figuières, C., Grolleau, G., 2013, Behavioral innovations: The missing capital in sustainable development?, Ecological Economics, 89: 187?195. Grolleau, G., McCann, L., 2012, Designing watershed programs to pay farmers for water quality services: Case studies of Munich and New York City. Ecological Economics, 76, 87-94. Salhi, S., Grolleau, G., Mzoughi, N., & Sutan, A., 2012, How can positional concerns prevent the adoption of socially desirable innovations? Journal of Economic Issues, 46, 799-810. Publications scientifiques à paraître Clot, S., Grolleau, G., Ibanez, L., Ndodjang, P., L'effet de compensation morale ou comment les « bonnes actions » peuvent aboutir à une situation indésirable, Revue Economique. Publications scientifiques prévues Beretti, A., Grolleau, G., Do Past States and Causes of Soil Degradation Affect Stated Willingness-toPay Values? Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Survey, Soumis pour publication à Journal of Environmental Management. Grolleau, G., Mzoughi, N., Helping People to Do what They Should by Suggesting Future Implementation: Does it Work?, Soumis pour publication à Journal of Environmental Management. Beretti, A., Figuières, C., Grolleau, G., An instrument that could turn crowding-out into crowding-in, Soumis pour publication à Economica. Plusieurs autres publications sont envisagées ou en cours de rédaction notamment sur d’autres biais mentionnés dans ce rapport (effet de compensation morale, réaction dévaluatoire, etc.) Programme GESSOL 24/24 KYKLOS, Vol. 66 – February 2013 – No. 1, 63–77 Using Money to Motivate Both ‘Saints’ and ‘Sinners’: a Field Experiment on Motivational Crowding-Out Antoine Beretti, Charles Figuières and Gilles Grolleau* I. INTRODUCTION In a wide range of situations, individuals engage in activities for their own sake without obvious external incentives, thereby showing intrinsic motivations (see Frey & Jegen, 2001, for a survey). Governments and other organizations often use additional monetary incentives to reinforce or increase these intrinsically motivated activities. Nevertheless, several experiments showed that positive (negative) monetary incentives can be counter-productive, leading to a decrease (increase) rather than an increase (decrease) of the targeted activities (e.g., Titmuss, 1970; Frey and Oberholzer-Gee, 1997; Gneezy and Rustichini, 2000, Ariely et al., 2009; Bolle and Otto, 2010). This crowding-out of moral and social motivations by monetary incentives is relatively well documented. But this literature, in its effort to attract attention on crowding-out effects, does not pay enough attention to the likely heterogeneity of intrinsic motivations among the population (a notable exception is Bénabou and Tirole, 2006). In this, it takes the risk to replace the caricature of a society populated by amoral “sinners” by that of a society populated by uniform “saints”. More realistically, any society is made of people characterized by various degrees of non-monetary concerns. By this we mean not only that individuals may differ in their degree of compliance with some particular kind * Antoine Beretti: UMR LAMETA – SupAgro, place Pierre Viala, Bât. 26, 34060 Montpellier Cedex 1, France. Email: [email protected]. Charles Figuières (corresponding author): UMR LAMETA, INRA, place Pierre Viala, Bât. 26, 34060 Montpellier Cedex 1, France. Email: Charles.Figuieres@ supagro.inra.fr. Gilles Grolleau: UMR LAMETA – SupAgro, place Pierre Viala, Bât. 26, 34060 Montpellier Cedex 1, France and LESSAC, Burgundy School of Business, Email: [email protected]. The authors greatly acknowledge the editors and anonymous referees of Kyklos for their feedback and suggestions. We are also grateful to Naoufel Mzoughi and Marc Willinger, participants at the LEF seminar (Nancy) and at various conferences and workshops for many helpful comments. And we thank the French research program GESSOL sponsored by the Ministère de l’Ecologie, du Développement durable,des Transports et du Logement, the Agency for the Environment and Energy Management (ADEME) for financial support. The usual disclaimer applies. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd., 9600 Garsington Road, Oxford OX4 2DQ, UK and 350 Main Street, Malden, MA 02148, USA 63 ANTOINE BERETTI/CHARLES FIGUIÈRES/GILLES GROLLEAU of intrinsic motivation, such as altruism, but that several logics of intrinsic motivations – not only altruism but also shame, guilt, self-esteem, reputation concern, etc. – may be at work to varying degrees in different individuals. Neglecting this heterogeneity might distort our understanding of the crowdingout phenomenon at the aggregate level. For instance, this phenomenon might be wrongly attributed to the interaction between extrinsic incentives and altruism while it may be that, for the subject under study, what is observed is the net effect of extrinsic incentives faced with several intrinsic motivations with only a minor effect of altruism. And our conception of effective public policies is also at stake because the same incentive design applied to all that would be suitable for a particular kind of “saints”, for instance to activate agents’ altruism, would probably be suitable neither for, obviously, the “sinners” nor for all the “saints”. This paper postulates the existence of several intrinsic motivations among heterogeneous contributors to the natural environment. More precisely, we consider only two different intrinsic motivations, which is sufficient for our purpose. To altruism often cited as an intrinsic motivation in previous studies (such as Bolle & Otto, 2010), we suggest to add a role for moral repugnance inherently associated to monetary rewards. From this framework we conjecture some important implications regarding the observability of aggregate crowdingout effects and regarding adequate policy designs in favour of the environment. Our originality, at the level of individual decisions, is thus to rationalize the crowding-out effect as the interplay of three logics: (i) extrinsic incentives, (ii) distorted altruistic motivations and (iii) moral repugnance. A second originality, as far as policy design is concerned, is that we go further than most papers which take note of crowding-out but do not suggest alternatives other than eliminating monetary incentives. Indeed, we scrutinize the strength of the crowding-out effect under three modes of interventions: (A) a direct monetary reward for participation, (B) monetary incentives directed to the alleged cause underpinning the intrinsic motivation(s) rather than to the individual, (C) offering the choice to participants (rather than choosing for them) to direct the money to themselves or to the cause. We implement an original field experiment to investigate the effect of our alternative incentive strategies on motivational crowding-out, in a context where environmental intrinsic motivations are presumably activated. Randomly selected household are simply invited to undertake an action related to environmental motivations under different experimental treatments. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 positions our work in the literature. Section 3 gives more details about the theory of behaviours underlying the present paper, from which it deduces the theoretical properties of the three policy designs A, B & C. Section 4 reports the results of a field experiment designed in order to test those properties. It shows that in 64 © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. USING MONEY TO MOTIVATE BOTH ‘SAINTS’ AND ‘SINNERS’ most cases (i) monetary incentives (design A) has a significant negative impact on participation, (ii) even when the monetary incentive is diverted to a proenvironmental association (design B), the negative impact is weakened but participation remains lower (or similar) than without any incentive, and (iii) giving the choice between A and B (design C) is the most efficient policy, which can even turn crowding-out into crowding-in. The last section concludes. II. CONTRIBUTION TO THE LITERATURE There is a sizeable and growing literature, especially in psychology and economics (e.g., Deci et al., 1999; Frey and Jegen, 2001; Bowles, 2008; for reviews) where the crowding-out effect has been explored. Without purporting to be exhaustive, most papers can be classified along the following categories: i) defining, debating and refining the concepts of crowding-out and intrinsic motivations and the circumstances under which this effect is likely to occur, ii) testing empirically the existence and magnitude of crowding-out in different contexts. While the theoretical possibility of crowding effects is widely accepted among economists, many of them have been critical about its empirical relevance, in spite of compelling evidence based on numerous circumstantial insights, laboratory studies and field experiments (Frey and Oberholzer-Gee, 1997; Gneezy and Rustichini, 2000; Frey and Jegen, 2001; Reeson and Tisdell, 2008; Bolle and Otto, 2010; Gneezy et al., 2011). Simply put, external incentives can change the perceptions people have about a given task, notably by turning goodwill into a market-like interaction leading to a decrease of the overall contribution, contradicting the hypothesis of motivations additivity. In these cases, rather than reinforcing the pre-existing motivation, the crowdingout effect dominates the traditional relative price effect making the end-result counter-productive. The crowding-out effect is more likely to occur when (i) the external intervention is perceived as controlling rather than supportive, (ii) there is a high level of self-determination of individuals and (iii) there is a high level of trust between people (Vollan, 2008)1. Moreover, it has been shown that this effect lasts even after removing the monetary incentives and is contagious to fields which were not initially targeted by the external intervention. Nevertheless, recent empirical works showed evidence of the role played by the 1. Interestingly, most empirical studies have examined the effects of positive monetary rewards (e.g., Frey and Oberholzer-Gee, 1997; Mellström and Johannesson, 2008) while some scarce studies have considered the case of negative rewards (e.g., Gneezy and Rustichini, 2000). For example, Frey and Oberholzer-Gee (1997) found that acceptance of “not in my backyard” projects is reduced if monetary rewards are offered and Gneezy and Rustichini (2000) showed that a fine for picking children up late from day care increased the number of late pick-ups. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 65 ANTOINE BERETTI/CHARLES FIGUIÈRES/GILLES GROLLEAU nature of external interventions. For instance, the field study conducted by Falk (2007) showed that including a postcard in a letter when asking for donation to support children in need generates a positive effect on donations. This is indicative of the possibility to design more subtle interventions than just offering money to encourage participation. Conceptually, our work is mostly related to the recent contribution by Bolle and Otto (2010). In their model of behavior, the representative agent is endowed with preferences that account for both extrinsic and intrinsic motives. Intrinsic motivation goes through altruism that renders a certain amount of service to other agents desirable, absent any monetary rewards for doing so. In this context, the occurrence of a motivational crowding-out is linked to the perceived “benefit” of altruism, which is lowered down once a payment is introduced. But intrinsic motivations are many and varied. They are not mere synonyms for altruism. Intrinsic motivations frequently refer to motivations that come from inside an individual rather than from an external reward, such as money or social recognition. The motivation comes from the sense of satisfaction in doing a task per se. Others consider that intrinsic motivations refer to preexisting motivations that are motivations that were present before the introduction of external rewards. With such a definition, it is clear that “intrinsic motivation” covers a variety of logics guiding behaviors, ranging from self-esteem to conformity to social norms. At the conceptual level, the distinction between Bolle & Otto (2010) and the present work lies in the presumption that different modes of regulation may interact with different intrinsic motivations, and therefore incur different risks of motivational crowding-out2. At the empirical level, another distinction is also to be made between our work and that of Bolle & Otto (2010). They consider the correlation between a stated contribution to the provision of a public good (blood donation to the Red Cross) and the level of altruism (money donation to charity). But this differs from our approach in that their subjects state their preferences about a hypothetical contribution under hypothetical incentive schemes, while in our experimental setting subjects are revealing their preferences through a real contribution under real incentive schemes. 2. 66 To complicate even further the matter, the nature of the contribution and the type of the prosocial activity under consideration can have a critical influence on the distribution of intrinsic motivations within the population. There might even be no intrinsic motivation attached to the contribution in some given domains. Furthermore the persistence of crowding-out when the incentive is withdrawn shows that even in identical settings this distribution is not stable over time for a given population (Gneezy and Rustichini, 2000). © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. USING MONEY TO MOTIVATE BOTH ‘SAINTS’ AND ‘SINNERS’ III. AN INFORMAL CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OF CROWDING OUT WITH HETEROGENEOUS AGENTS This section briefly gives some precisions about the theory of behaviors we have in mind when agents have several intrinsic motivations. Then, based on this theory it sketches the logical implications of various external monetary incentives on contributions. As in Bolle & Otto (2010), agents are endowed with preferences that render participation to an environmental task attractive, to some extent, because it produces advantages to other agents, even though there is an opportunity cost attached to this participation. This is a sort of ecologically-mediated, or ‘green’, altruistic concern. But our conceptual framework differs from Bolle & Otto (2010) by (i) considering that monetary incentives can activate moral repugnance, as a driving force of behaviors in addition to altruism, (ii) assuming heterogeneity (of altruism) among people. Moral repugnance mentioned in point (i) is a notion that we borrow from other disciplines like cognitive sciences, moral philosophy and psychology where it is sometimes called the yuck factor (see for instance Kelly, 2011). It refers to a particular kind of disgust because of its relation with moral injunctions. In discussion of bioethics, Leon Kass argues that it is “an emotional expression of deep wisdom, beyond reason’s power fully to articulate it.” (Kass, 2002). Critics have attacked the possibility of a so-called “wisdom of repugnance”, in particular because of the risk to ground moral values on emotions rather than on reason. Recall indeed that, in the 20th century, racism and antisemitism have been supported by popular revulsions. However, for the purpose of our analysis, the ability of this particular kind of emotion to indicate social goodness is not crucial. What is at stake is the relevance of this yuck factor as a driver for individual behaviors. Point (ii) is not merely a concern for realism; combined with Point (i), it is necessary in order to understand the multi-facet nature of behaviors. The crowding-out effect does not operate via identical behavioral channels under different treatments, and this will prove useful to understand the advantage of those kinds of regulation that mix up different kinds of incentives in presence of intrinsic motivations. Given this multiplicity of intrinsic motivations, let us now go through predictable behaviors in face of various instruments. III.1. Neutral Treatment: pristine altruism alone The neutral treatment is the benchmark case: there is no monetary incentive scheme. Agents differ in their degree of green altruism and they make a © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 67 ANTOINE BERETTI/CHARLES FIGUIÈRES/GILLES GROLLEAU trade-off between the estimated “benefits” that their participation to an environmental goal produces to others and the self-centered opportunity cost of this participation. Under this treatment altruism is the only intrinsic motivation at work, and all the agents who have a sufficient degree of altruism choose to contribute. III.2. Direct Treatment (A): distorted altruism and moral repugnance Under this treatment individuals are paid for their contribution to the environment. This payment has two potentially adverse effects on participation: i) as in Bolle & Otto (2010) there is a signal effect because the monetary payment reduces the individual estimation of the benefits of participation on other individuals, ii) in addition, putting a price onto a territory previously immune to the market forces is one of the list of events that generally spark the yuck factor argument (see for instance Sandel, 2012, and also the discussion about obnoxious markets in Kanbur, 2001). In other words, the payment activates a moral repugnance component in agents’ preferences that reduces the incentives to participate. Let us call this the moral repugnance effect. As far as the negative signal effect is concerned, other things equal the lower the monetary payment, the lower the green altruistic incentives on participation and the larger the crowding-out phenomenon, compared to the neutral treatment. In the opposite, if the payment is increased crowding-out is reduced and, pushing this to its logical limit, if the payment gets sufficiently large, extrinsic motivations can even dominate and result in crowding-in. Regarding the moral repugnance effect, it is worth noting that it is somehow connected to, though distinct from, altruism. Indeed we may expect that agents with higher degrees of altruism are also those who have the sharper moral repugnance. Therefore the direct treatment not only discourages those with an insufficient degree of altruism – the negative signal effect mentioned above – but it also repels a share of the population characterized by the larger degrees of green altruism, because for them, the altruistic benefits of participation are more than outweighed by their moral repugnance of being paid. This two-end effect of direct monetary rewards has an interesting implication. When payment is increased it may well be that agents who start to participate are less altruistic than those who start to participate under the neutral treatment, and yet there is crowding-out because this recruitment of low-end altruistic agents is not enough to compensate the loss of participation from those with the highest degree of altruism in the population. Let us keep in mind this possibility that will turn out to be important for the properties of the last instrument. 68 © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. USING MONEY TO MOTIVATE BOTH ‘SAINTS’ AND ‘SINNERS’ III.3. Indirect Treatment (B): distorted altruism alone Under this design the payment is no longer given to contributors; rather it is directed to a cause supporting the environment, for example a related association. Individuals no longer bear the cost of moral repugnance, therefore there won’t be crowding-out anymore among the most altruistic individuals in the population. But of course the agents’ altruistic motivation is activated, for participation still generates a benefit to the environment. Because the payment is directed to the cause supported by the individual, we can reasonably consider that the individual’s estimation of the environmental benefit of his participation is higher than when the same amount of money is directed to the individual’s pocket; the chosen destination, by its very nature, reinforces the belief of the agent on the presence of high environmental values, or because the association is more efficient than individuals in transforming a given amount of contributions in environmental gains. So, one can expect that the indirect treatment mitigates the negative signal effect of the monetary reward, and crowding-out is less important compared to the direct treatment. But participation under the indirect treatment is not any larger than under the neutral treatment. III.4. Choice Treatment (C): auto-selection of motivations Under this treatment, individuals can choose whether the payment is directed to themselves or to an environmental association. Giving the choice to individuals (keeping the reward for them or giving it to the ‘environmental cause’) could motivate a wider set of individuals, possibly leading to a higher overall contribution. It is even possible that crowding-in is obtained under the choice treatment, whereas there is crowding-out under each separate treatment. We expect this possibility occurs when the first individuals recruited under the direct treatment are less altruistic than those who start to contribute under the neutral treatment (and the indirect treatment), and because the most altruistic individuals who do not participate under the direct treatment do contribute under the indirect treatment. Crowding-in is obtained because the choice treatment combines the positive recruitment effects that each separate treatment has on different subsets of the population. IV. EMPIRICAL ANALYSES IV.1. Testable predictions The previous simple theory of behaviours conveys general qualitative predictions that empirical analyses can test and possibly refute: © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 69 ANTOINE BERETTI/CHARLES FIGUIÈRES/GILLES GROLLEAU • Conjecture 1: When an environmental-related intrinsic motivation preexists, a newly and ‘weak’ monetary reward crowds out this pre-existing motivation, possibly leading to an overall reduction of the motivation to act and hereafter to an overall decrease in contribution unless the monetary reward is sufficiently important. • Conjecture 2: A monetary reward that is not targeted directly at the individual but at the cause supported by the individual’s behaviour can mitigate the crowding-out effect of a direct monetary reward. • Conjecture 3: When a choice is given between a direct and an indirect incentive, the overall contribution is higher than without choice at the same level of monetary incentive, and can even result in crowding-in if the extrinsic incentives are strong enough. IV.2. Experimental design In order to investigate the above predictions, we designed a quasi-field experiment. The environmentally related contribution was a simple CO2 emission compensation linked to a participation in a survey on pro-environmental behaviors. The principle of CO2 emission compensation tends to spread more and more each day, among institutions, firms, households, and is today widely accessible. In 2010 a total volume of 131 MtCO2e were traded on the market for voluntary carbon offset for an overall value of US$ 424 million, a growth by 34% from previous year. CO2 emissions are displayed on many consumption goods and compensations are often suggested (plane travel for instance) if not tied to the consumption act (many pro-environmental products). In January 2009, the survey was administered to a randomly selected sample of 1498 French citizens living in the Montpellier metropolitan area (South of France). This metropolitan area, officially elected 2011 French Capital City of Biodiversity, was chosen because of highly publicized events and initiatives promoting individual and collective behavioral changes to help the environment, such as the both annual ‘Biodiversity Festival’ and ‘Week of the Environment’. The pro-environmental behaviors surveyed are very common such as switching off the light when leaving a room, turning off tap when brushing teeth, using a re-usable grocery bag or purchasing eco-friendly products. These items were informed on a Likert scale from ‘never’ to ‘always’. Every participant received an envelope containing the one-page questionnaire, an accompanying letter describing the overall study and presenting the incentive offered (depending on the treatment), a reply coupon and a prepaid return envelope. In the test phase, reading the accompanying letter and filling the questionnaire took on average 6 mns. We wrote the letter of solicitation to make it engaging, easy to read and promoting the benefits of results for the common good. 70 © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. USING MONEY TO MOTIVATE BOTH ‘SAINTS’ AND ‘SINNERS’ Table 1 Presentation of the Experimental Treatments Name N D2 D7 I2 I7 C2 C7 Treatment Amount given (€) Target N = 1118 No Reward Direct Reward Direct Reward Indirect Reward Indirect Reward Chosen Reward Chosen Reward 0 2 7 2 7 2 7 none Respondent Respondent Association Association Respondent or Association Respondent or Association 157 160 165 161 157 155 163 In order to activate intrinsic pro-environmental motives, we used a double strategy, first by committing ourselves to offset for CO2 emissions – via the CO2Solidaire program (see www.co2solidaire.org/) – corresponding to 300 kms by car for each returned questionnaire and second, by stressing in the accompanying letter that a better knowledge of pro-environmental behaviors can inform policy makers and researchers. The letter was identical across treatments except for the variables (incentive level, money recipient) that changed from one treatment to another. Our experimental design allows us to compare response rates under different treatments combining the incentive level (no reward, small reward, high reward) for filling and returning the questionnaire and the money recipient (the individual, the ‘environmental cause’, choice between either the individual or the ‘environmental cause’). Exactly as in the analytical framework above, the treatments have been labeled either as ‘direct’ if the money is offered to the respondent himself or ‘indirect’ if the money is devoted to the environmental cause or ‘chosen’ if the respondent must choose between himself and the environmental cause. The incentive levels were chosen to be as realistic as possible. For example, the lower level is slightly more than twice the minimum wage rate in France based on an estimation of the average time spent to fill (6 min) and send back the questionnaire. We used three levels of incentive: • a ‘no reward’ situation to control for the level of intrinsic motivation; • a 2 euros (ª US $3) incentive corresponding to the small incentive level; • a 7 euros (ª US $10) incentive corresponding to the high incentive level. We sent 1498 questionnaires which were divided randomly into seven groups of 214 contacts each group corresponding to one of the seven experimental treatments presented in Table 1 below. Due to a poor update of the phone book data and a high turnover in the region surveyed, 380 letters were returned by © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 71 ANTOINE BERETTI/CHARLES FIGUIÈRES/GILLES GROLLEAU postal services, stipulating that the person targeted does no longer live at the indicated address at the delivery time. After receiving all the responses, we purchased environmental offsets from an environmental association for CO2 emissions (US $733) corresponding to the questionnaires returned, sent back to participants their rewards (US $612) and made a donation to an environmental association (US $806). IV.3. Results and discussion Between January and March 2009, we received 279 responses. The corrected overall response rate reached 24.96%. No reminder has been sent, to avoid introducing a bias. Table 2 provides key statistics for the seven incentives schemes. We compare the participation rates under different treatments and table 3 presents the one-tailed z-test for the comparison of two proportions from independent samples that we performed. Most results exposed below are consistent with findings of previous studies. First, consistently with Conjecture 1, the findings clearly show that there is a crowding-out effect of a small monetary incentive on participation. When a monetary reward is offered, participation falls by 32.4% when compared to the benchmark case without reward. This result is significant at the 5% level (p = 0.0264). Nevertheless, when the monetary incentive is sufficiently high the price effect attenuates the crowding-out effect leading to a lower and even not significant decrease of participation rate, when compared with the non-reward case (-4.8% / p = 0.3906). Second, with regard to Conjecture 2, offering the incentives to the cause instead of directing it at the individual encourages participation, resulting in an increase by 15.4% when compared to the case with a direct incentive. However, this result is not significant at the 5% level (p = 0.2526). The most surprising Table 2 Key-statistics regarding each treatment Treatment N D2 D7 I2 I7 C2 C7 Total 72 Response rate (%) Women/men ratio Age (years) No high school diploma (%) University education (years) 28.66 19.38 27.27 21.74 24.20 23.87 29.45 24.96 57.78 64.52 66.67 60.61 51.35 72.22 64.58 62.55 54.93 45.45 45.36 53.74 53.58 51.31 46.21 50.01 20.00 12.90 15.56 20.00 13.16 27.03 27.08 19.71 3.46 4.5 3.49 3.31 4.25 4.25 3.73 3.82 © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. USING MONEY TO MOTIVATE BOTH ‘SAINTS’ AND ‘SINNERS’ Table 3 One-tailed Z-test for the Comparison of Two Proportions from Independent Samples Test number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Treatments compared X –Y Value X (%) Value Y (%) Difference X – Y (%) z-value Pr(Z > z) Significant difference? N – D2 I2 – D2 C2 – D2 C2 – I2 N-D7 N-I7 N-I2 N-C2 N-C7 28.66 21.74 23.87 23.87 28.66 28.66 28.66 28.66 28.66 19.38 19.38 19.38 21.74 27.27 24.20 21.74 23.87 29.45 9.29 2.99 5.12 2.13 1.39 4.46 6.92 4.79 -0.79 1.9365 0.6663 1.1104 0.4517 0.2778 0.8958 1.4225 0.9614 -0.1547 0.0264 0.2526 0.1334 0.3258 0.3906 0.1852 0.0774 0.1682 0.5615 YES** NO NO NO NO NO YES* NO NO *: significant at the 10% level; **: significant at the 5% level. result is that directing the reward (regardless of its amount) to the cause engenders a smaller but still strong crowding-out effect, reducing participation by 24.1% when compared to the case without reward. This result is significant at the 10% level (p = 0.0774). An increase of the size of the monetary reward increases participation, but not significantly, by 11.3% (p = 0.3007) when compared to the small monetary reward directed to the cause. But it still corresponds to a decrease in participation by 15.6% (p = 0.1852) when compared to the benchmark case. As for Conjecture 3, when the choice is offered to individuals between a direct and an indirect reward, participation increases when compared to both cases with direct (+ 26.4%) or indirect (+ 9.8%) reward but differences are not significant (respectively p = 0.1334 and p = 0.3258). Without offering the choice, we induced a selection bias by attracting either money-motivated individuals or intrinsically motivated individuals. By offering the choice, we can, to some extent, reduce this bias by recruiting in the two types. Individuals may also value the fact of having a choice per se which would be consistent with the theory of procedural utility (Frey et al., 2004; Frey and Stutzer, 2005). IV.3.1. Relative performance of the different incentive schemes If we compare the different incentive schemes in terms of cost-effectiveness, the findings are compelling. The only incentive scheme that allows a no-decrease (slight increase, but not statistically significant) in participation corresponds to the experimental treatment C7 where a higher reward is offered along with the choice of its recipient. The marginal cost of this increase in participation rate reaches the huge value of €383. Most of this marginal cost (€285) is directed by respondents to the environmental cause, which can be considered as an addi© 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 73 ANTOINE BERETTI/CHARLES FIGUIÈRES/GILLES GROLLEAU Table 4 Tests of heterogeneity Test number 1 2 3 Variable of interest D2 N t-value p-value Significant difference? Age (years) Sex (% women) Study (years) 45.45 64.52 3.767 54.93 57.78 2.545 -2.2564 0.5870 1.8700 0.0137 0.2796 0.0330 YES** NO YES** *: significant at the 10% level; **: significant at the 5% level; ***: significant at the 1% level. tional component of effectiveness. Intuitively, rewards devoted to the environmental causes are more likely to be used for environmental improvement than direct rewards offered to individuals. In sum, in all other cases, even if there are (beneficial?) transfers to the environmental cause, these expenditures reduce the response rate when compared to the no-reward case. IV.3.2. Heterogeneity of green altruism and socio-demographic characteristics At this stage, we check whether individuals responding to various treatments differ in terms of socio-demographic characteristics. Indeed, we assume that all original sub-samples have similar socio-demographic characteristics because they are randomly drawn from the same whole population. In theory, polar treatments will recruit people who differ in their degree of green altruism. For instance, neutral treatment N (i.e., no payment at all) is likely to attract a wide array of intrinsically motivated contributors whereas treatment D2 (i.e., paying a small amount to the individual) is likely to discourage contribution among the most altruistic people. Altruism is not directly observable, but it might be correlated to observable characteristic. More precisely, socio-demographic variables such as age and education could indirectly reflect the role played by the degree of altruism. In order to investigate this issue, we performed a Student’s independent two-sample t-test with unequal sample size and unequal variance on three available socio-demographic variables: gender, age and education level (Table 4). According to Table 4, individuals who responded to treatment D2 are 45.45 years old on average, while individuals who responded to treatment N are 54.93 years old on average. This difference is significant at the 5% level (p = 0.0137). Interestingly, D2 contributors are younger and more educated when compared with N contributors and these differences are significant at 5% level3. This 3. 74 These results still hold if we group together some similar treatments. For instance, the results remain consistent if we add people responding when a small amount is directed to the cause (I2) to the green contributors group. If we add people responding under the choice treatments (C2 and C7) and directing © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. USING MONEY TO MOTIVATE BOTH ‘SAINTS’ AND ‘SINNERS’ suggests that the most altruistic individuals are older and, perhaps because of a generational effect, have less education. Nevertheless, these results are only suggestive, given that we do not have robust information about non-respondents. But they support the idea that studying heterogeneity among agents is relevant when considering intrinsic motivations related to the environment. V. CONCLUSION When participation of some agents rests mainly on intrinsic motivations, the usual monetary incentives can damage them and produce a result opposite to that originally sought. There is a clear interest to preserve intrinsic motivations. But the intrinsic motivations are many and varied, and coexist with extrinsic motivations. Any society is made of heterogeneous people, ranging from “saints” to “sinners”. A mode of regulation best designed for one category of them only, such as directing monetary incentives to the cause, could fail to encourage the participation of agents more responsive to other intrinsic motivations, not to mention the agents motivated primarily by extrinsic incentives. This paper constructs a field experiment within which the properties of several incentive designs can be empirically explored and compared. Overall the main messages are as follows: 1. directing monetary incentives to the cause can quasi-cancel the decrease in overall participation, but does not generate an improvement compared to a situation without monetary incentives; 2. The negative impact is most reduced, and can even be turned into a positive impact, when offering the choice to the respondent between directing a large reward to the cause or to himself. The explanation might be that the choice treatment avoids the usual single logic of regulatory instruments. A wider set of motivations can then be recruited, thereby avoiding a counterproductive selection bias. An interesting extension to this study will be to use gifts rather than money per se which can avoid to stimulate a detrimental ‘market instinct’, under which an individual expresses personal interests rather than social preferences (Reeson and Tisdel, 2008)4, and directing them either to the individual or to the cause. 4. the money to the cause to the green group and those directing the money to themselves to the grey group, the results still hold. The results of these tests are available upon request. The individual does not consider the question “Am I willing to contribute freely to this survey for the sake of the society and the environment?” but he switches to the question “Am I willing to earn x euros to contribute to this survey?” which recruits a different scope of motivations. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 75 ANTOINE BERETTI/CHARLES FIGUIÈRES/GILLES GROLLEAU REFERENCES Ariely, Dan, Anat Bracha and Stephan Meier (2009). Doing Good or Doing Well? 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On Obnoxious Markets, Revised version published in Stephen Cullenberg and Prasanta Pattanaik (editors), Globalization, Culture and the Limits of the Market: Essays in Economics and Philosophy. Oxford University Press, 2004. Kass, Leon R. (2002). Life, Liberty, and the Defense of Dignity. Encounter Books. Kelly, Daniel (2011). Yuck! The Nature and Moral Significance of Disgust, MIT Press. Mellström, Carl, and Magnus Johannesson (2008). Crowding-out in Blood Donation: Was Titmuss Right? Journal of the European Economic Association. 6: 845–863. Reeson, Andrew F., and John G. Tisdell (2008). Institutions, Motivations and Public Goods: An Experimental Test of Motivational Crowding, Journal Of Economic Behavior and Organization. 68: 273–281. Sandel, Michale J. (2012). What Money Can’t Buy: the Moral Limits of Markets, Allen Lane, A/L PENG PRESS. Titmuss Richard M. (1970). The Gift Relationship: From Human Blood to Social Policy, Allen and Unwin. Vollan, Bjørn (2008). Socio-Ecological Explanations for Crowding-Out Effects from Economic Field Experiments in Southern Africa, Ecological Economics. 67: 560–573. 76 © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. USING MONEY TO MOTIVATE BOTH ‘SAINTS’ AND ‘SINNERS’ SUMMARY Economists recognize that monetary incentives can backfire through the crowding-out of moral and social motivations leading to an overall decrease of the desired behaviour. Under the premise that agents are heterogeneous and have various intrinsic motivations we suggest precise strategies to reduce counterproductive motivational crowding-out. In order to test our suggestions, we implement a field experiment where participants are asked to fill a questionnaire on pro-environmental behaviours under different incentive schemes, either with no monetary incentive (control) or with low or high monetary incentive directed either to the respondents (design A) or to an environmental cause (design B), or with a choice offered between A and B (design C). We investigate (i) whether there is a significant crowding-out effect, (ii) which design performs better to promote participation. Except for a high monetary incentive where the respondent chooses himself the end-recipient, we show that monetary rewards directed either at the individual or at the cause actually harms intrinsic motivations, but not to the same extent. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 77 Author's personal copy Ecological Economics 89 (2013) 187–195 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Ecological Economics journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon Behavioral innovations: The missing capital in sustainable development? Antoine Beretti a, Charles Figuières a, Gilles Grolleau b, c,⁎ a b c INRA, UMR 1135 LAMETA, F-34000 Montpellier, France Montpellier SupAgro, UMR 1135 LAMETA 2, place Pierre Viala, F-34060 Montpellier, France LESSAC, Burgundy School of Business, 29, rue Sambin BP 50608, 21006 Dijon, France a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 12 April 2012 Received in revised form 28 February 2013 Accepted 3 March 2013 Available online 29 March 2013 JEL classification: D03 Q55 Q57 Keywords: Behavioral capital Behavioral economics Dual interest theory Innovations a b s t r a c t Many scholars argue that environmental issues can be addressed through technological innovation, a proposal which echoes a lasting debate between environmental and ecological economics about the substitution rate between natural and manufactured capital. In addition to these two established types of capital, this paper introduces the idea of ‘behavioral capital’. We define behavioral capital as the latent potential of behavioral change to affect improvement in environmental quality. Our contribution argues that technological and traditional regulatory innovations serve as insufficient tools for addressing modern environmental issues and ensuring sustainable development. Without discarding these solutions, we contend that because human behavior is a significant contributor to environmental problems, it should be regarded as a key component of continued solutions. We suggest that the dual interest theory can serve as an integrative framework for behavioral innovations related to environmental issues. In suggesting this, we assume that behavioral innovations can both overcome some of the limitations of technological innovations and offer new solutions. Our main insight is to suggest that some depletion of natural capital – but not all – can be offset by behavioral changes without decreasing, or even increasing, subjective well-being. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction During a severe famine in the late 18th century France, locals remained reluctant to eat potatoes despite having received encouraging messages about their edibility and nutritional benefits. In response to this crisis, a French pharmacist named Antoine-Augustin Parmentier strategically planted 100 acres of fallow land with potatoes and had royal soldiers stationed around it. However, he secretly ordered them not to protect the planted area, but to accept bribes to leave it unguarded. With their curiosity piqued by the presence of the guards, local residents took the bait, paying off soldiers to leave their posts in order to steal and eat the unguarded potatoes. This unconventional strategy effectively induced residents to eat the potatoes they had once refused. Our current environmental predicament is strangely reminiscent of the situation that Parmentier faced in 1785. The severity of modern environmental problems such as climate change, water shortages, and biodiversity losses contrasts sharply with the indifference, unresponsiveness, and even active denial of those culpable for the damage. Some argue that environmental issues can be addressed through technological innovation (Lomborg, 2009), a proposal which echoes a lasting debate between environmental and ecological economics about the substitution rate between natural and manufactured capital. While standard ⁎ Corresponding author. Montpellier SupAgro, UMR 1135 LAMETA, F-34060 Montpellier, France. Tel.: +33 6 60 82 52 51. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (A. Beretti), fi[email protected] (C. Figuières), [email protected] (G. Grolleau). 0921-8009/$ – see front matter © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2013.03.004 environmental economics accepts manufactured capital as a pure substitute for natural capital, ecological economics maintains that the existing stock of natural capital must not be depleted beyond a certain threshold. Accordingly, this minimum stock level must be maintained and perhaps even enhanced because the functions it performs cannot be replaced by manufactured capital.1 In addition to these two established types of capital, this paper introduces the idea of ‘behavioral capital’. We define behavioral capital as the latent potential of behavioral change to affect improvement in environmental quality. Our contribution, therefore, differs from that of most studies to date by arguing that technological and traditional regulatory innovations serve as insufficient tools for addressing modern environmental issues and ensuring sustainable development. Without discarding these solutions, we contend that because human behavior is a significant contributor to environmental problems, it should be regarded as a key component of continued solutions. In suggesting this, we assume that behavioral innovations can both overcome some of the limitations of technological innovations and offer new solutions. Our main insight is to suggest that some depletion of natural capital – though not all – can be 1 Ecological economics recognizes the importance of four primary types of capital that contribute to human wellbeing: natural capital, human capital, built capital, and social capital. Ecological economics further recognizes that they interact in a complex and dynamic system (Vemuri and Costanza, 2006). Even, if some behavioral based initiatives could to some extent be classified into the existing four types of capital, we contend that behavioral capital constitutes per se a fifth capital which interacts with the other types of capital. Author's personal copy 188 A. Beretti et al. / Ecological Economics 89 (2013) 187–195 offset by behavioral changes without decreasing, or even increasing, subjective well-being. Additionally, behavioral changes often prove to be less capital-intensive than technological innovations as a means of precipitating change (Allcott and Mullainathan, 2010). By its very nature, behavioral capital is centered on human behavior and can seem inconsistent with the non-anthropocentric ethics of the ecological economics paradigm. Nevertheless, considering human behavior as a powerful leverage to reach sustainable development goals does necessarily imply that we support nature as existing solely for the benefit of humans. Using behavioral capital is not inconsistent with considering the value of the environment per se, regardless of its human values. We contend that this perspective can contribute to adequate management of the environment for the environment's sake. The remainder of this discussion is organized as follows. In Section 2, we explain why technological change alone is not effective enough when human behavior is at the root of an environmental issue. Section 3 proposes some solutions offered by behavioral innovations and illustrates them using several micro-case studies and anecdotal evidence. We introduce the dual interest theory which can serve as an integrative framework for behavioral innovations related to environmental issues (Czap et al., 2012). Section 4 makes justice to the on-going discussion between neoclassical economists and behavioral economists and emphasizes some challenges faced by behavioral interventions. The final section (Section 5) extends this discussion by considering policy implications and by developing general conclusions. Throughout the article, some generalizable lessons are drawn from various studies. 2. Why is Technological Change Likely to be Insufficient to Address Environmental Issues? According to Ehrhardt-Martinez (2009), the first and most common response from policy makers and the public alike is to look to technology to provide answers to global climate change. Moreover, she argues that when these technological solutions are not adopted, the next step is to seek an economic explanation. Without negating the substantial contribution of this techno-economic model in addressing environmental issues, we contend that it only treats one part of the problem. The recommendations drawn from this model are based on rational actors who perfectly weight the costs and benefits of adopting certain behaviors. According to this model, well-crafted economic incentives and disincentives can guide people to adopt socially desirable technologies and behaviors. While traditional economists assume that economic actors are rational agents who are self-interested, fully-informed, outcome-oriented, and time-consistent, most social scientists believe that human behavior is often irrational, imperfect, uncontrolled, and time-inconsistent, yet predictable (Allcott and Mullainathan, 2010; see also Venkatachalam, 2008). Clearly, the alleged performances that technological change can deliver are contingent upon the reliability of the incentives devised within the traditional (rational) model of economics. Consequently, the goals of the techno-economic model may be unrealistic because it neglects important psychological and emotional determinants of human behavior (Gowdy, 2008; Venkatachalam, 2008). For instance, the effectiveness of monetary incentives (disincentives) to encourage (discourage) socially (un)desirable behaviors can be significantly Table 1 Two cognitive systems (Kahneman, 2003; Thaler and Sunstein, 2009). Automatic system Reflective system Uncontrolled Effortless Associative Fast Unconscious Skilled Controlled Effortful Deductive Slow Self-aware Rule-following reduced because of motivational crowding-out, inadequate timing of payments or reactive devaluation (e.g., Duflo et al., 2011). In particular, recent research suggests that there are two distinct operational systems in the brain (see Table 1 below). The reflective system offers deep, rational analysis, despite its admittedly limited capabilities, while the automatic system is able to process many concepts simultaneously but in a more ‘superficial’ way by employing heuristics and biases (Thaler and Sunstein, 2009). This study indicates that some of our decisions are more influenced by the automatic system than was once thought, rendering the techno-economic model limited in scope, as it assumes perfectly rational choice. In sum, a growing literature reveals that our intuitions about the drivers of behavior can be flawed, notably because preferences, decision making, and resulting behaviors are largely context-dependent (Ariely, 2008; Cialdini, 2005). Sanfey et al. (2003), for example, use functional magnetic resonance imaging to demonstrate that unfair offers in an ultimatum game induce conflicting activity between the areas of the brain which represent “twin demands […], the emotional goal of resisting unfairness and the cognitive goal of accumulating money.” Technological solutions which seem promising on paper can be disappointing when implemented in the real world. Among the counter-intuitive effects of technological improvements, let us mention rebound effects (Binswanger, 2001). In short, rebound effects occur when the lower cost of energy services resulting from increased efficiency ‘pushes’ individuals to consume more energy overall. While there remains some disagreement about the magnitude of rebound effects, the existence of these effects is not contested. Additionally, technological change is frequently considered to be highly capital intensive. A panel of Nobel laureate economists ranked ‘higher public funding and research and development of non-carbon energy, in order of $100 billion a year’ as ‘one of the most effective responses’ to address climate change issues. However, in a context of economic crisis, financial constraints can force agents to seek innovative solutions which are less capital intensive. Behavioral interventions, in particular, are frequently less costly than interventions drawn from the techno-economic model, and they can deliver first order environmental results (Allcott and Mullainathan, 2010). 3. Human Behavior: A Potential Solution to Environmental Problems? Many behaviors, especially day-to-day ones, are frequently determined by the automatic system, making conventional interventions (e.g. technological improvements, market incentives) less likely to deliver desired results. We contend that by taking these mental shortcuts and biases into account, it is possible to encourage particular types of behaviors. Well-crafted behavioral innovations can ‘nudge’ agents to make better choices and can therefore constitute powerful solutions to sustainability issues. Two fundamental behavioral findings are essential to understand why decision makers (Humans) diverge so systematically from those of standard economics (Econs). The first is ‘construal’ which captures the notion that decision makers need to construe a representation of the relevant situation in their mind and the second is the ‘power of the situation’, implying that such construal is heavily impacted by the context of the decision (Shafir, 2008). Humans with their so-called behavioral anomalies influence how the various “capitals” transform material and energy. Most behavioral findings can be interpreted through the lens of the new dual interest metaeconomics framework. Rather than just enumerating a list of biases by presenting them as exceptions to mainstream economics, the dual interest theory and metaeconomics approach offer an integrative framework (Czap et al., 2012). This promising framework notably recognizes the co-existence of two human tendencies, a tendency to egoistic–hedonistic based self-interest which needs to be tempered by the human tendency to empathy–sympathy based other-interest. Self-interest is considered as a force rather than presuming it as the only motivating force and the dual interest theory acknowledges the Author's personal copy A. Beretti et al. / Ecological Economics 89 (2013) 187–195 moral dimension reflected in norms, values, conscience and so forth, i.e., the we-interest or other-interest (Czap et al., 2012). This framework and theory make explicit the “norm” being referred to in our paper. That is, it is the other (internalized within self, but shared with others)-interest that tempers and conditions the self-interest. Stirring and evolving the other-interest better ensures not only environmental action now, but also builds commitment to the shared cause over time, such that the behavior continues. In short, Humans (in contrast with Econs) have dual, often conflicting egoistic–hedonistic (self-interest) and empathy– sympathy (other/share with others-interest), seeking peace of mind, and peace with nature, rather than the Econ presumption of a egoistic– hedonistic, self-interest only “max U” person, few of which really exist in this world and as a result, most can be nudged to act on empathy– sympathy with the environment (Sheeder and Lynne, 2011). According to Rifkin (2009), increased empathy would necessarily make people together to behave co-operatively and solve global problems, such as climate change. Instead of defining a list of behavioral biases as a basis for behavioral innovations, we have chosen to emphasize five behavioral-based interventions which can ‘nudge’ people in socially desirable directions: social influence, causal attributions, framing effects (loss aversion, default options), commitment and intentions manipulation, and visibility. Moreover, even if these behavioral-based interventions share the behavioral background with those developed by previous scholars (e.g., Gowdy, 2008; Shogren and Taylor, 2008; Venkatachalam, 2008), we selected some interventions that were not mentioned in the preceding contributions. 3.1. Using Social Influence to Orient People in Socially Desirable Directions As a frequently underestimated factor, social influence can be remarkably powerful in directing people's decisions and actions (Cialdini, 2005). However, both descriptive (what the majority does) and injunctive social norms (what the majority approves of) are rarely used in environmental policy design despite the fact that they are highly effective and nearly costless. The potency of social norms was demonstrated through a simple experiment (Goldstein et al., 2008) in which hotel guests received a card asking them to reuse their towels. Four different cards were presented according to each experimental treatment, namely an environmental protection appeal, a social responsibility for future generation appeal, an environmental cooperation appeal and a descriptive norm. Treatment Message on the card Environmental protection appeal “HELP SAVE THE ENVIRONMENT. You can show your respect for nature and help save the environment by reusing your towels during your stay.” “HELP SAVE RESOURCES FOR FUTURE GENERATIONS. Future generations deserve our concern. Please do your part to protect the environment and conserve dwindling resources for future generations to enjoy. You can help preserve these precious resources for all of us by reusing your towels during your stay.” “PARTNER WITH US TO HELP SAVE THE ENVIRONMENT. In exchange for your participation in this program, we at the hotel will donate a percentage of the energy savings to a nonprofit environmental protection organization. The environment deserves our combined efforts. You can join us by reusing your towels during your stay.” “JOIN YOUR FELLOW GUESTS IN HELPING TO SAVE THE ENVIRONMENT. Almost 75% of guests who are asked to participate in our new resource savings program do help by using their towels more than once. You can join your fellow guests in this program to help save the environment by reusing your towels during your stay.” Social responsibility for future generations appeal Environmental cooperation appeal Descriptive norm 189 The “descriptive norm” card increased towel reuse when compared to the other three cards. A simple and interestingly costless presentation of what other people do – a descriptive social norm – engendered a net increase of 34% in participation to this simple conservation program. In another study (Schultz et al., 2007), door hangers were placed once a week for a month on the doors of a residential area of San Diego. Each household received one of four messages, informing people that (1) they could save money by conserving energy, (2) they could save the earth's resources by conserving energy, (3) they could be socially responsible citizens by conserving energy, or (4) the majority of their neighbors tried regularly to conserve energy — information learned from a prior experiment. The fourth message, carrying the descriptive social norm, was the only one that led to a significant decrease in energy consumption: a reduction of almost 2 kWh per day (Nolan et al., 2008). It is worth noting, however, that such use of a descriptive social norm is relevant only in cases where the desirable behavior also stands for the norm, whereas, in any other context, disclosing this kind of information might result in counterproductive effects. For instance, Arizona's Petrified Forest National Park suffers from the theft of more than one ton of wood each month by park visitors. The local authority erected signs informing that many visitors were vandalizing the forest every year by stealing small pieces of wood. However, this message actually served to normalize the undesired behavior and therefore achieved perverse results (Cialdini, 2003). Framing, too, often plays a crucial role in determining environmental behaviors. In response to the above perverse effect, Cialdini (2003) conducted an initial experiment in which they placed two different signs in high-theft areas of the park, along with a similar control area without any sign. The first sign informed park visitors that “Many past visitors have removed petrified wood from the Park, changing the natural state of the Petrified Forest” (a descriptive social norm), while the second sign simply stated “Please do not remove petrified wood from the Park in order to preserve the natural state of the Petrified Forest” (an injunctive social norm). The area with the first type of sign exhibited the higher theft rate (8%), which proved significantly higher than either the control area (3%) or the area with the second type of sign (1.7%). Cialdini (2003) then conducted a second experiment, placing two new types of signs in high-theft areas. Both signs urged visitors to not take wood. One depicted a scene of three thieves in action, while the other showed a lone thief. The first type of sign again induced a significantly higher theft rate than the second, demonstrating the importance of the way in which a message is framed. In this case, we find that revealing an undesirable social norm, i.e., that many visitors steal wood, may in fact reinforce it as a descriptive norm and consequently lead to an undesirable environmental outcome. This lesson is particularly relevant with respect to alarmist messages about the detrimental environmental effects of common behaviors. No matter how well-intentioned these messages may be, it is clear that by confirming that an undesirable action is the descriptive norm, these messages may only encourage such behavior, thereby generating counter-productive effects. It is well-known that groups and individuals are interested in their performance not only in absolute terms, but also relative to the performances of others. Some people are willing to incur a loss (lower absolute position) to get, in the dimension considered relevant, a higher rank (higher relative position) in their reference group. For example, farmers can be reluctant to adopt environmentally friendly technologies that deliver a net economic benefit for fear of losing their position in another aspect (e.g., yields) in their reference group (e.g. among farmers). These ‘status effects’ are frequently ignored by neoclassical models, wherein agents maximize their profit or their self-centered utility regardless of their position on the relevant social ladder. Regarding farmer behavior, some recent papers (Chouinard et al., 2008; Czap et al., 2012; Sheeder and Lynne, 2011) provide empirical evidence regarding the relevance of the dual interest theory. For instance, Author's personal copy 190 A. Beretti et al. / Ecological Economics 89 (2013) 187–195 Sheeder and Lynne (2011) show that farmers who temper their pursuit of self-interest with shared other-interest reflecting empathy–sympathy are more likely to adopt conservation tillage. They found support that farmers pursue a joint and interdependent own-interest and not only self-interest as presumed in traditional microeconomics. These positional considerations, or peer performance comparisons, have been used in other arenas to precipitate ‘races’ toward sustainable development. For instance, The Yale Environmental Sustainability Index ranks countries using a combination of 76 variables such as water quality, overfishing, and greenhouse gas emissions. As a consequence, South Korea, upset by its low rankings in the 2002 index, took specific actions to improve its position by investing in reductions to air and water pollution. These efforts proved effective, moving it up 22 places within the next three years. Yale environmental expert Daniel Esty (Ayres and Nalebuff, 2005) describes another example: ‘After Norway came in second, the prime minister asked for a meeting to discuss the results. Rather than crowing about Norway's superb showing, all he wanted to talk about was what his country could do to overtake Finland and become number one.' It is clear that ranking countries has proven to be a costless and powerful force to induce motivation for environmental improvements. From this, we observe that the benefit of employing social influence is the emergence of positive norms due to an increase in the visibility of desirable behaviors. Highlighting top environmental performances may induce virtuous competition, leading to greater environmental consciousness, and thus better behaviors. The experiment on towel reuse in hotels (Goldstein et al., 2008) is a fitting example of this normative effect, since the experimenter manipulated the provided descriptive norm by communicating a 75% participation rate in the program. This exaggerated information pushed guests to participate more, and thus served as a normative signal.2 Lesson 1: Social influence can be used to promote sustainable development by describing the desired behavior as a social descriptive norm when possible or as a moral prescriptive norm in other cases. Moreover, messages describing widespread undesired behaviors can inadvertently induce conformity and reinforce the undesirable behavior. Lesson 2: Status seeking can be harnessed to promote sustainable development by facilitating comparisons between entities based on environmentally friendly performances. 3.2. Using Causal Attributions: Superiority Bias and Varying Causes Individuals make systematic and often biased inferences about the causes of events and behaviors (Burger and Rodman, 1983; Forsyth et al., 1981). A frequent attribution bias relies on the fact that individuals attribute the responsibility of his successes to personal abilities, while attributing the responsibility of his failures to external factors. Symmetrically, others' successes are attributed to external factors while others' failures are attributed to their own responsibility. Therefore it seems fairly intuitive that if others are understood to be responsible for an environmental degradation, a given individual will be more reluctant to make a costly contribution to restore it or at least to avoid its further degradation. Moreover, the superiority bias describes the tendency of people to think that they are better than average in many dimensions. A familiar illustration of this tendency is that most people think that their chances of having a car accident are significantly lower than the average person's chances of experiencing this event (DeJoy, 1989). 2 The results obtained in this study are not based on the use of deception, given the ‘75% participation rate’ was a number provided by the company that supplies such cards to hoteliers. Deceiving is common in psychology experiments but raises several ethical issues in economics, making its use very scarce. Moreover, the consequences of deception overtime have to be considered. Indeed, one can imagine that the positive effect resulting from the use of a manipulated social norm can vanish and even backfire if people understand what the reality is. An interesting example supporting this insight arises from an energy consumption experiment conducted in California (Schultz et al., 2007). 3 In this study, the authors showed that when the monthly electric bill listed the average neighborhood level of consumption, people in above-average households significantly decreased their consumption. At the same time, those with the below-average bills reacted by significantly increasing their consumption. To avoid this unanticipated increase in consumption, experimenters included an image along with the consumption information: a smiling face (☺) on a below-average bill or a frowning face (☹) on an above-average bill. They appropriately labeled this effect the ‘injunction effect’. As a result, heavy users exhibited larger reductions in electricity consumption, while light users remained frugal. In sum, helping people to measure their performance relative to others by exposing the true ‘average’ with an adequate framing can help people acting more pro-environmentally. Using a descriptive social norm, an injunctive social norm, or even a combination of both can help to guide individual consumers in a socially desirable direction. Since environmental degradation is often the result of multiple factors, pinpointing a single cause can be challenging. A recent study (Beretti and Grolleau, 2011) tested the effect of the presence and the nature of the cause of an environmental degradation on participants' interest in and willingness-to-pay (WTP) for the implementation of a restoration program. They found that the presence of a given cause has an effect on interest, as well as on WTP. When considering man-caused degradations, individuals were more interested but less willing to pay for the same net restoration than when considering nature-caused degradations. They suggest that people are more concerned (outrage effect 4) but feel less responsible when the root of the degradation is man-made as opposed to when it is natural. Lesson 3: Given that people misattribute causes of events and overestimate their desirable qualities relative to others, stipulating a particular cause for an environmental issue and disclosing the ‘true’ average and the individual's position can nudge people in more desirable directions. 3.3. Using Framing Effects: Default Option (Opt-out, Opt-in) and Loss Aversion A major finding of behavioral economics is the loss aversion bias which maintains that people value a certain loss more than its equivalent net gain. Many laboratory and field experiments have supported the fact that people are generally more motivated (around two times more) to avoid a particular loss than to acquire the same net gain. These findings have been used to explain the well-known WTP-WTA disparity. Applied in the environmental realm, policies can be more or less effective (e.g., in terms of support, of willingness to contribute) according to whether the suggested changes are perceived as avoiding losses or as acquiring net gains. Unfortunately, many environmental messages are framed as sacrifices or losses for individuals in terms of well-being (e.g. reducing car use, heating less) rather than in terms of gains. Consequently, reframing environmental messages accordingly constitutes a natural candidate to help increase participation in environmental preservation. Martin (2007) also recognizes the importance of framing: ‘for messages to have the best chance of being effective it would seem that not only should they be framed in terms of what we stand to lose [by not adopting the desired behavioral change]. That loss should be something we currently possess and should also be accompanied with a clear and specific action we can personally take to avoid such as loss.’ For instance, researchers from the University of California “told one group of homeowners that they could save 50 cents a day by carrying out energy efficiency improvements in their home. They told 3 4 This example can also be used to illustrate the power of social influence. See Bulte et al. (2005) for more details about the ‘outrage effect’. Author's personal copy A. Beretti et al. / Ecological Economics 89 (2013) 187–195 a second group of homeowners that they would continue to lose 50 cents a day if they did nothing. The second group was 300% more likely to carry out the improvements”. In sum, framing the benefits in terms of loss due to the non-adoption can significantly increase the adoption of a desirable behavior (Goldstein et al., 2007). Another interesting and under-exploited finding of behavioral economics relates to the importance of default options. Even in situations characterized by uncertain preferences and heavy consequences, it can be shown that the option described as the default strongly influences individuals' decisions. Notably, the default option often inadvertently indicates the social norm. This phenomenon is reinforced by the omission bias, which describes the tendency to judge harmful actions as less moral than equally harmful omissions. In this way, the omission bias explains inaction because it is easier for an individual to restrain himself from making a ‘good deed’ (e.g., signing a form to donate his/her organs) than it is to perpetrate a ‘bad deed’ (e.g., signing a form not to donate his/ her organs). Consequently, appropriate choice architecture can be used to encourage individuals to select the socially desirable option without infringing on individual freedom. In 2009, organizers of the Behavior, Energy and Climate Change Conference (BECC) proved the effectiveness of such an architecture. At a prior BECC conference, meat was the default option for lunch, while vegetarians were able to request a vegetarian dish. Seventeen percent of the attendees chose the vegetarian meal. In 2009, conference organizers instead made the vegetarian lunch the default option. After this change, 80% of the 700 attendees chose a vegetarian lunch. Karen Ehrhardt-Martinez, the conference chair, exposes the stakes behind such an experiment: “Omnivores contribute seven times the greenhouse gas emissions, when compared to vegans.” The default option effect is currently used in tax systems, organ donations, insurance, and membership renewals. To our knowledge, however, it has not been used in many environmental policies, despite compelling evidence of its power, as demonstrated in field experiments on organ donation (Johnson and Goldstein, 2003) and more recently on green electricity (Pichert and Katsikopoulos, 2008). Lesson 4: People are more sensitive to losses than to gains of a similar amount and tend to stick to default option. So, framing the benefits in terms of loss and make the desired behavior the default option can promote sustainable development. 3.4. Commitments and Intention Manipulation When an individual detects an inconsistency between his attitude and his behavior, he experiences an uncomfortable psychological state called cognitive dissonance. Interestingly, human dual interest theory reflects the reality that the cognitive dissonance is natural, inherent in the brain. The dissonance is reflected in the human tendency to egoistic–hedonistic based self-interest (probably more primal, more biological) which needs to be tempered by the human tendency to empathy–sympathy based other-interest (this one also internalized within self, when it is effective, and, also biological, but perhaps not as primal, more secondary in the brain). Both are jointly pursued, non-separable, quite interdependent, with the dissonance resolved once the two interests are squared, and the individual achieves a kind of peace-of-mind. Also, both interests reflect a bit of self-sacrifice, to make all this work. In this case, a bit of self-sacrifice in the self-interest to achieve an environmental payoff in the other (shared with others)interest (but realizing there is also sacrifice in the environmental payoff when one pursues “max self-interest U” only). Humans achieve a kind of altruism in both domains of interest, as the dissonance declines, and a “peaceful” state of mind is achieved, in this case, in peace with one's environment (Czap et al., 2012; Sheeder and Lynne, 2011). Beretti et al. (2009) suggest that in order to relieve this cognitive dissonance, the individual should in theory (i) either change his behavior such that it becomes consistent with his attitudes, (ii) change his attitudes, (iii) expose himself to selective information that ‘makes’ his behavior consistent, or (iv) remain ignorant (bliss ignorance). 191 Cornforth (2009) explains that when experiencing cognitive dissonance “people form ‘socio-psychological denial mechanisms’, meaning they overestimate costs and underestimate benefits of shifting to less energy-intensive behavior while blaming other people's and government's inaction.” Several economists have commented on the potential of formally integrating cognitive dissonance into economic theory (e.g., Akerlof and Dickens, 1982; Rabin, 1994). By asking the individual to publicly commit in advance to a given behavior, policy-makers can nudge individuals to reveal their attitudes toward pro-environmental behaviors. This insight is consistent with dual interest theory. Indeed, when oneself commits to the other-interest, in public, and others-so commit too, and, as a result, the self-interest is tempered, conditioned, and each sacrifices a bit in that domain (Sheeder and Lynne, 2011). This can help people to avoid cognitive dissonance by, for example, overcoming procrastination and other time inconsistency issues. Such commitments have been successfully used by economists and psychologists in experiments related to speeding (Elliot and Armitage, 2006), using public transport, and buying organic food (Bamberg, 2002). In order to increase bus use, Bamberg (2002) asked people for specific details about a day and time for taking the bus instead of simply asking to commit to take it on an unspecified day. This technique, known as implementation intention, has been studied by Gollwitzer and Sheeran (2006) in a meta-analysis of 94 independent experiments. Their results confirm the power of this tool to increase goal achievement. In the same vein, Rogers and Bazerman (2008) showed that people are more likely to choose what they believe they should choose when the (binding) choice will be implemented in the future rather than in the present. They argue that policymakers could leverage the benefits of future lock-in by advocating for reforms that would be decided upon in the present, but go into effect in the future. Interestingly, the addition of a financial incentive to commitments does not necessarily increase the strength of the ‘nudge.’ The introduction of monetary incentives can evoke a business frame and transform the nature of the considered decision from a moral one to an economic one. Shifting the individual to think in terms of monetary incentives also shifts the individual over to the self-interest domain, which requires even more monetary payment. This shift has been found to be descriptive of interventions to bring about more recycling behavior, where “too high” financial incentives can actually result in less recycling (Kalinowski et al., 2006; see also Sheeder and Lynne, 2011). In the same vein, Messick and Tenbrunsel (1999) showed experimentally that the introduction of a weak monetary sanction increased fraudulent behavior when compared to a situation without monetary sanctions. The authors suggest that this introduction led people to base their behavioral decision on a cost–benefit analysis rather than on what is considered the morally right thing to do. Dual interest theory can easily explain these paradoxes, ironies, as individuals are “nudged” from one domain of interest to the other. According to Self-Determination Theory (Ryan and Deci, 2000), people are indeed less motivated when they sense that a behavior arises due to external pressure, and more motivated when they feel their motivation is self-generated. From these results, it appears that internalizing commitments is a key factor in determining behavioral intention. Based on this research, senior economists at Yale University created an online commitment device (http://www.stickk. com/) which encourages the individual to make a very specific type of contribution, that is a monetary contribution that will be given to an ‘anti-charity’ or an organization the individual dislikes if he does not reach his stated goal, thereby triggering the loss aversion discussed above. The approach also recommends the involvement of a referee who is either a relative or another member of the online community. Additional effects of social exposure on individual decision-making are discussed below. Lesson 5: People make less suboptimal decisions when they make choices further in advance of their consequences, so asking people to Author's personal copy 192 A. Beretti et al. / Ecological Economics 89 (2013) 187–195 commit in advance to a given behavior, preferably precisely and publicly, can increase its adoption. 3.5. Visibility and Exposure Effect Environmental outcomes caused by individual behaviors are frequently intangible and delayed in time. For instance, driving too quickly contributes to increases in CO2 emissions and private costs that are not immediately perceptible at the individual level. Even if a cost increase is perceptible later, it is easily attributed to other causes (causal ambiguity). Despite good intentions, people often fail to attain their goals because they get derailed along the way due to a lack of progress markers. Behavioral sciences show that people are more likely to adapt their behavior when they receive feedback in real time and in an easily accessible and understandable way. For example, the Prius mile-per-gallon display is an innovation that makes motor performance immediately visible. Sarah Darby argues that “once you start making fuel consumption more visible, you have something that comes to the forefront of people's minds instead of lurking in the background. This gives you feedback that alters actions, and encourages you to try and improve things” (Rosenwald, 2008). Equivalent devices (e.g., Kill a Watt plug, Wattson console) are currently implemented in various countries to inform people on their electric consumption at home, in real time, and sometimes in comparison with peers. The disclosure of a particular environmental measure could trigger some of the above discussed effects. For instance, Derek Foster, a post-graduate at University of York, developed a simple application which uses a personal energy meter to record live and historical household energy consumption and then transmits this data to Facebook (Foster et al., 2010). He concludes that ‘by using Facebook as the delivery platform, it introduces social psychology elements such as peer-pressure and normative behavior between friends which can introduce competitiveness to reduce energy usage’ (University of York, 2009). In our estimation, experimental tests of the exposure effect need to be undertaken to adequately measure the extent to which the desired behavior can be induced using these forces at a low cost (relative to the cost of alternatives to reach the same result). Even if the ranking effect and social norms have already proven to be effective, we contend that the acceptability of the public disclosure of private information about energy consumption remains contentious, especially among heavy users. Nevertheless, all environmental dimensions (electricity or water consumption versus biodiversity losses) are not equally amenable to measurement and feedback because of measurement easiness or temporal dimension. Lesson 6: Giving people an immediate feedback on the consequences of their behavior and allowing social comparison by increasing visibility can increase the adoption of socially desirable behaviors. 4. Some Critiques of Behavioral Economics Despite its recent success, behavioral economics have been criticized on several grounds, notably by eminent economists (e.g., Aumann in Hart (2005), Rubinstein (2006) Glaeser (2006) and Becker in Clement (2002) and Herfeld (2012)) and even in trade press (e.g., Ferguson (2010), Lehrer (2011), Farrell and Shalizi (2011)). Even if these criticisms are not directly related to behavioral environmental economics, they can easily be extended to policies drawn from behavioral studies in the environmental realm. So, to make justice to this current debate among economists and practitioners, we will present and discuss some major points of debate. The presentation will be synthetic, bearing in mind that reviewing the whole range of criticisms and responses related to behavioral economics is beyond the scope of our article. First, several economists emphasize that many insights of behavioral economics have been tested in laboratory experiments or in settings that do not reflect real-world situations. Aumann (2005, interviewed in Hart, 2005) argues that lab experiments are artificial, notably because they use small monetary payoffs, proposes unusual decisions upon an act-by-act basis. Moreover, these experiments frequently use limited samples of students from Western universities to support their theories, leading some critics to describe behavioral economics not as ‘the study of humans in markets’ but as ‘the study of kids in psychology labs’ (Ferguson, 2010). For instance, Gary Becker (interviewed in Clement, 2002) stated that ‘economics theory is not about how people act in experiments, but how they act in markets’. Rubinstein (2006) goes further and considers that some experiments are inherently flawed and over-generalized. Moreover, he found that behavioral economists use a double standard: severe scrutiny for neoclassical theories and overconfidence and lack of critical assessment for behavioral contributions. In some cases, the behavioral anomalies crop up in one-shot experiments while they disappear in repeated experiments. Similarly, individual or household behavior can conform to the non-rational behavior in the short run, but this behavior can return to the rational behavior (in the neoclassical sense) in the long run. Given that environmental policies aim at achieving long term sustainable development, behavioral findings from one-shot experiments and in the short run may be less relevant. While over-generalization from one-shot experiments on small samples of very specific individuals5 can be dangerous, several economists agree that experiments, given that some conditions are respected, can be a relevant source of data to reach a better understanding of human behavior (Levitt and List, 2007). For instance, Falk and Heckman (2009) argue that empirical methods and data sources are complements, not substitutes. Indeed, causal knowledge requires controlled variation and experiments, both lab and field, play a significant role to improve the state of knowledge in the social sciences. They reject the idea of a hierarchy among these methods and conclude that the issue of generalizability of results is universal to all of them. Second, behavioral economics is frequently perceived as a list of effects, not as a unified theory of human behavior that has the explanatory and predictive power of standard theories. There are multiple behavioral explanations for many types of behaviors. ‘At its core it is a collection of psychological phenomena—norms, biases, and heuristics—that are connected only in the sense that each runs counter to some fundamental tenet of traditional economics’ (Ellis and Hayden, 2005). Rubinstein (2006) describes the typical behavioral contribution as messy, long with poorly formulated models which lack the elegance and generality of neo-classical models. Rosch (2010) disagrees with this reasoning and argues that ‘rejecting behavioral economics whole cloth for lack of an organizing principle is arguably just another way of saying that an answer is better than no answer, however wrong that answer may be’. Moreover, there are some attempts to provide an integrative framework to behavioral findings. Metaeconomics or dual interest theory is a promising candidate. Nevertheless, the process is on-going and it is preliminary to predict whether it will be successful. Third, several concerns are related to policy insights drawn from behavioral studies. One of the strongest criticisms against policies based on behavioral economics is the risk of paternalism, fear of slippery slopes and manipulation (Glaeser, 2006; Rizzo and Whitman, 2009). Accepting new paternalist policies based on behavioral economics findings creates a risk of accepting, in the long run, greater restrictions on individual freedom than have been heretofore acknowledged. Thaler and Sunstein (2009) recognized the risk of slippery-slope and stressed that this criticism does not address the issue of whether their ‘proposals have merit in and of themselves’. Moreover, they emphasize that their suggested policies limit the steepness of the slope and are designed to retain the freedom of choice. They also advance that in many situations, 5 WEIRD: Western Educated Industrial Rich and Democratic. Author's personal copy A. Beretti et al. / Ecological Economics 89 (2013) 187–195 some kind of nudge is inevitable. Indeed, there are always default rules and contexts that frame choices in certain directions. Moreover, behavioral economics models predict irrationality among regulated entities, but seem to ignore that regulators are subject to the same kind of biases, heuristics and so on. This asymmetric application of behavioral theories raised concerns (Farrell and Shalizi, 2011; Glaeser, 2006). For instance, Posner (2009) argues as follows: “behavioral economists are right to point to the limitations of human cognition. But if they have the same cognitive limitations as consumers, should they be designing systems of consumer protection?” Nevertheless, this criticism ignores the fact that, unlike human beings who make decisions in a vacuum, government regulators have the ability to study over time how many individuals behave in certain settings (Rosch, 2010). As stated before, the aim of this part was to mention explicitly the current debate regarding the use of behavioral economics. We do not pretend to give a definitive answer, but indicating some elements of the debate is a means to give a more critical and balanced view of so-called ‘behavioral innovations’, especially among the academic community. In sum, while most traditional economists tend to think of environmental matters as driven primarily by prices (even by their absence) we advocate for a more systematic consideration of other important drivers of human behavior. 5. Policy Considerations and Conclusion ‘The main reason behavioral science should be part of the policy debate is that it provides in some cases a perspective that is vastly different from economics.’ (Amir et al., 2005) Behavior is often at the root of environmental issues, even in the presence of technological solutions. In this paper we contend that in some circumstances, behavioral innovations represent a cost-effective and under-exploited method by which to address these issues. Influencing behaviors in this way has the potential to result in better environmental outcomes at a lower cost compared to expensive research on technology, as we've seen in reducing energy consumption. However, a lack of unifying theory, coupled with the generally uncertain nature of psychological factors, has limited the usefulness of research to merely drafting strategies and raising questions regarding scalability of the discussed effects. The dual interest theory and metaeconomics approach constitute a promising candidate to synthesize behavioral anomalies related to environmental issues within a consistent framework. This approach offers a refreshing way to analyze individuals' decisions regarding environmental issues without negating the self-interest component but by complementing it. Despite recent contributions in this domain, a lot of work remains to be done. Behavioral findings can understand how individuals make their decisions and inform public policy in the environmental domain in several ways. In a recent project, the OECD environment directorate states that behavioral economics can improve benefit–cost analysis through methodological adjustments to nonmarket valuation techniques and the development of policy mechanisms to influence environmental behavior. For instance, recent advances in risk perceptions, loss aversion and hyperbolic discounting have important implications for benefit–cost analysis and can strongly influence related decisions (Brown and Hagen, 2010; Shogren and Taylor, 2008). Of course, a prerequisite for invoking the behavioral change solution is either negligible transaction costs or exorbitant transaction costs of an alternative outcome (Coase, 1960). Coase (1960) stated that “all solutions have costs and there is no reason to suppose that government regulation is called for simply because the problem is not well handled by the market or the firm.” Behavioral-based interventions are not immune to transaction costs and fulfillment of promises depends on the ability to keep 193 transaction costs sufficiently low in comparison to alternatives. For instance, Shogren (2012) suggests several directions where behavioral insights can help to decrease transaction costs and ease the use of Coasean bargaining. Moreover, behavioral changes extend ‘the richness of social alternatives among which we can choose’ (Coase, 1974). A coasean analysis frequently assumes that agents' preferences are given while behavioral sciences show that preferences are context-dependent. Interventions can change preferences and subsequently changing preferences can become in some situations the least-cost way of reducing harm. For instance, in order to fight global warming, several alternatives can be considered such as government regulation, Coasean bargaining, laissez faire but also encouraging people to adopting a vegetarian diet. There is a clear need to examine the implications of behavioral changes on the transaction costs in comparison to other kinds of interventions but addressing adequately this issue is beyond the scope of our contribution. In a different vein, neoclassical economics traditionally suggests policy instruments in order to reduce undesirable behavior such as quotas, taxes and tradable permits. While neoclassical economics typically assumes that the selection of the relevant instrument lies in economic and administrative efficiency, psychologists contend that policy measures impact the way in which people consider the environmental good to be conserved (OECD, 2012). Recent models of moral decision-making suggest that because of the complex interferences with moral motivations, performances of policy instruments depend on how those instruments are perceived by regulated entities (Frey, 1999; Nyborg, 1999). Rather than suggesting a substitution between traditional interventions and behavioral ones (Loewenstein and Ubel, 2010), we argue that insights from behavioral economics can help to increase the effectiveness of traditional interventions (Pollitt and Shaorshadze, forthcoming). Experimental methods in the laboratory and in the field can contribute to policy design. Indeed, experimental methods constitute a useful testbed for alternative institutions in order to provide evidence of success before actual implementation, especially in the context of developing countries. In a recent paper devoted to the role that the experimental method and mindset can play in environment and development economics, Ehmke and Shogren (2008) state that ‘the relative benefits of using experiments for resource policy in developing countries may even be greater than in the developed world. Due to the low capital resource constraints, the rewards may be significant in using cost-effective experimental research relative to pilot projects’ (see also Shogren, 2012). Without negating technological innovations, we highly recommend that policy-makers and research funders divert some resources to design, test, and promote behavioral interventions. As magnified by some described initiatives, solutions frequently require a mix of different types of capitals, namely built capital, human capital, social capital, natural capital and… behavioral capital. We believe that behavioral innovations can change the traditional frontiers between ‘weak’ and ‘strong’ sustainability. While monetary incentives and technological improvement are expensive, behavioral changes possess the capacity to deliver good results not only at a lower cost, but also over a shorter time horizon. Importantly, even researchers suffer from biases in the way they perceive the environment in the context of their field of expertise. We suspect the existence of a self-serving bias, more precisely, a déformation professionelle bias, which causes traditional scientists to devote too much attention to technological solutions (as we, admittedly, do with behavioral solutions). Presumably, behavioral solutions are not immune to deficiencies, and raise several ethical issues. For instance, little is known on how behavioral and cognitive biases interact. For instance how loss aversion interacts with hyperbolic discounting? Understanding these interactions is crucial to design the optimal package of behavior change‐inducing measures to reach sustainable development goals. We also need to better understand the relationship between short‐ run and long‐run behavioral changes or conversion (Pollitt and Author's personal copy 194 A. Beretti et al. / Ecological Economics 89 (2013) 187–195 Shaorshadze, forthcoming). Moreover, behavioral policy measures may discriminate against less-educated populations and could conceivably result in an overly paternalistic society — one in which the tendency towards behavioral manipulation surpasses the preservation of individual freedoms. Consumer, citizen, or researcher, we are all subject to attribution biases, inclined to externalize the responsibility of environmental problems by looking to external solutions (i.e., technological capital) instead of the internal potential that lies with changing our own behavior — by tapping into our ‘behavioral capital’. At the other extreme, however, it is evident that purely behavioral solutions to our current environmental predicament would also fail in important ways. Indeed, behavioral interventions and other nudges can be used (and are already used) by various agents who diverge in some respects (e.g., financial resources, leverage) and ultimately pursue competitive goals. Some environmental problems can be so crucial that behavioral soft interventions or so-called nudges seem insufficient and call for shoves. For this reason, it is incumbent upon policy makers to combine behavioral innovations with more traditional tools. Indeed, change is most likely to be reached through a range of complementary instruments and approaches. In sum, there is a need to improve policy design by taking into account recurrent and predictable cognitive and behavioral biases in order to address enduring environmental issues, while simultaneously maintaining and even improving subjective well-being. Acknowledgments We thank the editors and anonymous referees of Ecological Economics for their feedback and suggestions, which helped us to improve significantly the paper. 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McCann b,⁎ a b ENSAM–LAMETA Bat. 26, 2, place Pierre Viala, 34060 Montpellier Cedex 1, France Dept. of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 212 Mumford Hall, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO 65203, USA a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 18 September 2011 Received in revised form 12 January 2012 Accepted 7 February 2012 Available online 3 March 2012 Keywords: Environmental transactions Transaction costs Water quality a b s t r a c t While preserving water quality by contracting with farmers has been examined previously, we analyze these arrangements from a different perspective. This study uses a transaction cost framework, in conjunction with detailed case studies of two water quality payment schemes, to examine factors that increase and decrease transaction costs in order to improve policy choice as well as policy design and implementation. In both the Munich and New York City cases, agreements with farmers to change land management practices resolved the water quality problems. In Munich, factors including lack of rural/urban antipathy, homogeneous land use, utilization of well-developed organic standards, and strong demand for organic products decreased transaction costs. Using existing organic institutions addressed a range of environmental issues simultaneously. Factors that decreased transaction costs in both cases included: highly sensitive land was purchased outright and the existence of one large “buyer”. Adequate lead time and flexibility of water quality regulations allowed negotiation and development of the watershed programs. Tourism and eco-labels allow urban residents to become aware of the agricultural production practices that affect their water supply. We conclude with recommendations based on the experiences of these cities, both of which have been proposed as models for other schemes. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Preserving and restoring water quality is a major concern in numerous countries. The success of regulations in reducing pollution from point sources 1 has led to an increased focus on nonpoint, unregulated, sources of pollution such as agriculture, which may have lower abatement costs. Point–nonpoint source trading has been enabled by ☆ Acknowledgements: We are particularly grateful to Naoufel Mzoughi, Christophe Déprés and participants at the workshop ‘A Primer in Economic Analysis of SoilRelated Ecosystem Services (Montpellier, November, 18, 2010) for many helpful comments and suggestions. We also benefited from comments at the World Congress of Social Economics meetings (Montreal, June 28–July 1, 2010). We are particularly indebted to two anonymous referees and the editor of Ecological Economics for suggestions that greatly improved the paper. We are also grateful to the French research program GESSOL sponsored by the Ministère de l'Ecologie, du Développement durable, des Transports et du Logement, the Agency for the Environment and Energy Management (ADEME), the EU Fellows Program at the University of Missouri, and the Missouri Agricultural Experiment Station for financial support. The usual disclaimer applies. ⁎ Corresponding author. Tel.: + 1 573 882 1304. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (G. Grolleau), [email protected] (L.M.J. McCann). 1 According to an OECD report (2003, 43), point-source pollution reduction has been successful in most OECD countries, given that ‘industrial discharges of heavy metals and persistent chemicals have been reduced (…) by 70–90% (or more) in most cases’. Nevertheless, the same report indicates these successes are not enough to meet water quality standards. 0921-8009/$ – see front matter © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.02.006 legislation in several places in the U.S. as a way to reduce abatement costs but there has been less trading than expected due to issues such as transaction costs (Fang et al., 2005). Contractual arrangements and payments for water quality services from municipal water organizations to nonpoint sources represent a similar policy instrument. The current study uses a transaction cost framework in conjunction with detailed case studies of two water quality payment schemes (i.e., Munich and New York City) to examine the factors that increase and decrease transaction costs in order to improve policy choice as well as policy design and implementation. Rather than just admitting that high transaction costs can prevent contractual arrangements as emphasized by Coase (1960), we devote attention to factors explaining the level of transaction costs and strategies employed to shape them (Anderson and Libecap, 2005; Déprés et al., 2008; Libecap, 1989). The water supply of Munich, Germany, with a population of 1.2 million, is mainly from the Mangfall Valley. The water supply for New York City, with a population of over 9 million people, comes from the Catskill Mountains and the headwaters of the Delaware River. In both cities, decreasing water quality in the 1980s meant that expensive water filtration systems would need to be installed ($6 billion in the case of New York City), or that land management changes would need to occur in the watersheds. In both cases, agreements with farmers to change land management practices resolved the water quality problems, however the two cases differed in a number of ways. Using these two detailed cases, we examine the factors Author's personal copy 88 G. Grolleau, L.M.J. McCann / Ecological Economics 76 (2012) 87–94 that influenced the level of transaction costs, the nature of the transaction costs that are likely to affect the potential for exchange, and the opportunities for greater reliance on voluntary contractual solutions. 2 Transaction costs arise throughout the process of an exchange transaction, even if it ultimately does not occur. From an operational viewpoint, these costs notably include the costs of defining, enforcing and exchanging property rights (Dahlman, 1979; McCann et al., 2005). Under some circumstances, they may be high enough to prevent voluntary exchanges (Coase, 1960). The contributions of this paper are at least threefold. First, it adds empirical content to basic transaction cost concepts by analyzing the design and implementation of real contractual arrangements for nonpoint source pollution in a multi-player setting. Second, our comparative analysis of Munich and New York indicates how specific transaction costs were modified to enable efficiency gains and successful arrangements. Third, it uses the case studies to develop recommendations regarding the design of similar contractual solutions to water quality issues. While our analysis is focused on water quality, it has applicability to other complex environmental and natural resource issues where both physical location and the specific institutional environment are important. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Sections 2 and 3 provide historical background and context, analyze the transaction cost issues in each city, and show how various issues were overcome leading to satisfactory arrangements. 3 The final section provides an overall assessment of arrangements, draws some generalizable lessons and policy implications, and then concludes. 2. Transaction Cost Issues in Munich Munich is the third largest city in Germany with about 1.2 million inhabitants. For more than 125 years, Munich drinking water was extracted mainly from springs in the foothills of the Bavarian Alps, namely the Mangfall Valley. This valley, located 40 km from the city of Munich, supplies around 80% of the tap water consumed in Munich, that is, about 90 million m 3 per year (SVM, 2008). The land in the catchment areas is mainly used for farming or forestry. Interestingly, since the end of the nineteenth century, the city purchased lands surrounding the Mangfall springs and devoted them to forestry activities. Despite this, in the 1980s, the Munich water organization noticed a slow but significant increase in nitrates (15 mg/l) and pesticides (0.065 μg/l) in groundwater supplying the city. Between 1974 and 1992, the nitrate level increased 250%, from 6 mg/l to 15 mg/l, and there was also deterioration in the taste of the water. Although this increased nitrate level was lower than regulatory requirements for tap water, the city decided in 1991 to behave proactively and encouraged farmers in the catchment areas to adopt organic farming (Table 1). First, the Stadtwerke München (SVM or Munich City Utilities) delimited the target area (6000 ha) by using hydro-geological data and defined the desirable changes in farming practices that were needed to ensure water quality. While half of the area is covered by forest, around 2250 ha are used for agriculture and 120 farmers (mainly dairy farmers) were in the target area. Then, SVM organized a public information campaign for local farmers in order to encourage 2 In our analysis we do not use the externality as the basic unit of analysis but the transaction. Like other authors (e.g., Cheung, 1970; Coase, 1992; Bougherara et al., 2009), we suggest shifting the basic unit of analysis from the traditional externality to the transaction. The transaction framework emphasizes conflicting uses of natural resources by humans and the potential of various institutional arrangements as ways to resolve this conflict. 3 Multiple sources of case evidence were gathered and analyzed, e.g., reports by various institutions, academic papers, websites of key organizations, internal documents, interview transcripts, and the popular and technical press. These documents describe the history of each case. Of course, any error or misinterpretation is the sole responsibility of the authors. them to switch to more environmentally friendly practices. Farmers were initially very reluctant because the suggested changes would have profoundly modified their production practices. To overcome the initial reluctance of most farmers, SVM organized meetings to discuss the issue and provided in-depth guidance to individual farmers by ecological/sustainable farming experts (SVM, 2005). In addition to persuading farmers at meetings, SVM considered the possibility of offering financial incentives tailored to each practice change such as limitations in nitrogen use or manure discharge, or transition to pasture. The practice by practice approach was abandoned because to be effective, it required extensive monitoring and verification, which would have been very costly and time-consuming. Rather than following its initial plan, SVM switched to a comprehensive approach by encouraging farmers to switch to organic farming, as defined by existing regulations (SVM, 2005). Moreover, the SVM selected 3 reputable associations of organic producers already operating in the targeted areas, namely Bioland, Naturland and Demeter. The SVM paid for the first evaluation by producers' unions of potential candidates for organic conversion, reducing their fear regarding the extent of practice changes and their consequences. SVM recognized that the extensive involvement of the unions helped to overcome farmers' fears (SVM, 2005). Contractual arrangements were proposed to farmers who had land located in the catchment area. In the Munich case, it is clear that by basing the contractual arrangements on organic farming requirements, SVM economized on several types of transaction costs. Indeed, referring to organic standards in Germany facilitated several phases of the transaction. For example, rather than defining and explaining each practice change, negotiating the value of a specific mix of changes according to a particular situation (e.g., the portion of the farm located in the targeted area) or acquiring skills to effectively monitor and enforce the contractual requirements, SVM benefited from synergies offered by existing organic standards. In Germany, disputes over appropriate payments were seemingly less intense compared to the Vittel case 4 thanks to baselines regarding technical aspects of organic farming and potential losses due to conversion. Rather than starting from scratch, SVM used the experience accumulated by producers' unions to convince farmers. Relationships with farmers were also facilitated to some extent by the unions. In some areas, producers’ unions requested stricter requirements than official organic requirements such as only 1.5 cows per ha and banning the use of manure from another farm (Naturland). The monitoring is conducted by conventional certification bodies and violations range from admonition to immediate contract termination. This enforcement strategy is very cost-effective since it uses existing procedures. Using available knowledge, the payments offered took into account expected lost income and the investments required to switch to organic farming. As a financial incentive, the city offered farmers an annual payment of 280€/ha/year for agricultural land during the first 6 years, regardless of whether the land was owned or leased. For the next 12 years, farmers received compensation of 230 €/ha/ year. Interestingly, farmers also benefited from European and national subsidies to switch to (and remain in) organic farming. According to Simonet (2005), farmers received European subsidies of 250€/ha/ year for a 5-year period, corresponding to the Bavarian agrienvironmental program, the so-called “Kulturlandschaftsprogramm’ (KULAP). At the end of the 5-year period, these contracts can be renewed. Given the average farm size of 24 ha in the Mangfall watershed, overall compensation per farmer amounted to more than 10,000€ per year (SVM, 2005). In sum, the financial investment 4 Vittel is a French bottler of mineral water which developed contractual arrangements with farmers located in their firm's catchment area to change some agricultural practices and preserve its water quality. The case is detailed in Déprés et al. (2008). Author's personal copy G. Grolleau, L.M.J. McCann / Ecological Economics 76 (2012) 87–94 required from the city to make the switch profitable for farmers was less than expected because of financial synergies. SVM was also able to leverage consumer market payments for organic produce. Although organic products command a significant price premium that can exceed 30% compared to conventional products, organic farming is less profitable than conventional farming during the initial conversion phase and becomes more profitable than conventional farming about seven or eight years after the switch. 5 Time is usually required to develop the skills to master organic farming (learning by doing). Moreover, the relatively high homogeneity of farms (in terms of products and methods of production) in the targeted area reduced transaction costs to identify and assist farmers. It also facilitated the process of convincing farmers since results from the early adopters were available. Despite the willingness to prescribe organic farming in the whole targeted area, the arrangement was somewhat flexible since it allowed farms that could not comply with all requirements of organic farming to adopt practice changes favorable to water quality and receive compensation of 200 €/ha/year and have the status of ‘supporting members’ (SVM, 2005). Given that these supporting members benefit from municipal and state (CAP) financial incentives they are monitored by independent examining teams and spot checks are made by the Department of Agriculture (SVM, 2005). In addition to financial incentives and efficient organizational design, personal characteristics of the farmers involved also played a strong role as admitted by SVM. SVM states that it “has some very conscientious farmers (…) who are practicing ecological farming not only for the sake of financial remuneration but with enormous personal conviction and enthusiasm” (SVM, 2005). Another noteworthy point is the involvement of Munich and the producers' unions in the processing and retailing of the organic products. For instance, the city is an important purchaser of products from the targeted area to supply its schools and municipal restaurants. The city also funded advertising campaigns to promote the purchase of organic products from the catchment area by Munich inhabitants. These ads frequently emphasized the relationship between purchases of locally produced organic products and water quality. A special promotion involving children's milk indicated “One liter of Bio milk contributes to the protection of 4000 liters of Munich's drinking water” (Höllein, 1996). Interestingly, some broader marketing initiatives aim at creating a link between regional origin and Munich inhabitants. For instance, the ‘UnserLand’ (Our Land) umbrella organization promotes the marketing of regional products (including organic products) from the counties surrounding Munich (Schafer, 2006). The city involvement was also perceived by farmers as a real and sustainable commitment reinforcing the strategy's credibility. It is very likely that the initiative benefited from the institutional environment (Dietz et al., 2003; Libecap, 1989; North, 1990; Ostrom, 1990; Williamson, 2000) due to a strong and historically rooted trend in favor of organic farming. For instance, Germany is considered as “one of the founders of organic farming” and as the “largest market for organic food in Europe” and Munich as the “largest market for natural food and organic products in Germany” (Schafer, 2006, p. 3). The city of Munich itself owns 11 farms covering 2800 ha, not necessarily in the catchment area, and offers tours of these farms to promote its citizens' interest in organic farming (Schafer, 2006). Moreover, the city of Munich organizes bicycling tours from Munich to the Mangfall Valley, at the heart of the 5 Burkhard Schaer, Expert in economic analysis of organic farming in France and Germany Ecozept, Personal communication, January 2010. Organic farming is frequently perceived as less profitable than organic farming, but several studies (e.g., Delate et al., 2003; Badgley et al., 2007) comparing organic and conventional farming find that organic farms are often more profitable per acre, even if the time by which organic farming becomes more profitable varies across systems (see Nieberg and Offermann, 2003). 89 catchment area, and some tours have included picnics and explanations of the city's initiatives (Simonet, 2005). In sum, the switch to organic farming was self-enforcing thanks to at least two mechanisms, namely, a mix of financial incentives until organic farming became more profitable than conventional farming, and strong involvement of the city in purchasing and promoting organic products from the targeted area as well as acquisition of specific skills and reputation. If a farmer is largely known as having proenvironmental values by adopting organic farming, this reputational asset (and desire for consistency) can make a return to conventional farming less likely. It is expected that, for established organic farms, the opportunity costs of returning to conventional farming will be so high that it will not be profitable to do so. Another factor in Munich's favor was that the strong existing demand for organic agricultural products in Germany, as well as German farmers' acceptance of sustainable and organic production mentioned earlier (Schafer, 2006), meant that existing institutions, such as well-developed organic production standards, extension organizations, and marketing channels for organic produce could be used, thus decreasing transaction costs. Use of the existing organic institutions also meant that a range of environmental issues related to conventional farming were addressed simultaneously. The farming systems near Munich were also quite suitable to organic production (Ministère de l'Ecologie et du Développement Durable, 2005). The results are inspiring. Most of the targeted area (110 farmers and 80% of agricultural area) is now under contract and is considered to be the largest contiguous area of organic farming in Germany (Schafer, 2006). There has been a significant increase in water quality with levels of nitrates down to 7 mg/l and some pesticides containing terbuthylazin down to 0.02 μg/l (Simonet, 2005, see also Höllein, 1996). The price increase for water consumers due to the whole water protection scheme is estimated to be 0.005€/m 3 (SVM, 2005) whereas the avoided cost of water treatment equipment was estimated at 0.23/m 3 (Simonet, 2005). Good advance planning and sufficient time were clearly necessary to reach this mutually beneficial arrangement. If the city had not acted early, before they were required to, time considerations may have prevented the use of contractual approaches and forced the water utility to consider engineering solutions (e.g., building a filtration plant). The Munich case has also served as a model and inspired similar arrangements in other German cities (e.g., Stuttgart, Leipzig). Unfortunately, since the New York City Table 1 Main events regarding the protection of water quality in Munich. Main dates Main events 1873–1878 First use of the Mangfall valley (Mangfalltal) to supply drinking water to Munich Late 1800s First outright purchase of forest and agricultural fields in the catchment area 1930 Purchase of 30 properties (500 ha) and plantation with spruces and larches 1950s Seeking of new catchments 1950–1970 Plantation of 100 ha with conifers 1980s Slow but regular increase of NO3 and pesticides in groundwater 1991 SVM's decision to encourage farmers to switch to organic farming 1992 Public information campaign for farmers located in the center of the targeted area and initial reluctance of farmers From 1992 Several meetings, individual and collective discussions between the city, farmers and unions 1993 First 23 farms (800 ha) under contract 1994 50 farms under contract 1998 Updating of contract length after the pilot phase: from 6 years (conversion period) to 18 years (maintenance period) 1999 92 farms (2200 ha) 2005 110 farms (2500 ha) i.e., over 80% of agricultural areas in the conversion area were under contract; only about 10 farms refused to contract Various sources as indicated in the text. Author's personal copy 90 G. Grolleau, L.M.J. McCann / Ecological Economics 76 (2012) 87–94 case was unfolding concurrently with the Munich one, they were not able to benefit from the Munich experience. Table 2 Main events regarding the protection of water quality in New York City. Main dates Main events 3. Transaction Cost Issues in New York City 1905 New York City is the largest city in the United States, with about 9 million inhabitants, and consumes almost 5 million m 3 of water per day. 6 The New York City watershed consists of 518,000 ha in the Catskill Mountains and Hudson Valley regions. The portion west of the Hudson River is located 120–200 km north of New York City (Appleton, 2002). It is the largest unfiltered water supply in the U.S. and provides drinking water for the residents of New York City and some other locations, or almost half of the population of the state of New York (Catskill Center for Conservation and Development). Land acquisition and construction of the 18 reservoirs and associated infrastructure began in 1905 and continued through the 1960s and now supplies 90% of the City's water (Table 2). Land was taken by eminent domain and entire towns were relocated or disappeared which contributed to resentments that continue to the present (Gold, 1990; Hoffman, 2008; Porter, 2006). The Croton Watershed, east of the Hudson River, supplies 10% of the City's water but due to the severity of the problems, water from this reservoir will be filtered (Appleton, 2002), therefore this watershed is not part of the discussion below. Relative to New York City, the Catskill Mountains area is economically depressed, relying on tourism, farming (especially dairy), and construction (Gold, 1990). Three quarters of the watershed is forested, and 85% is in the hands of individuals (Nickens, 1998); half of that is owned by people from the New York City area who have purchased land for vacation or retirement homes. Changes in these local industries eventually jeopardized the natural filtering abilities of the ecosystem, thus compromising drinking water quality in the 1980s (Appleton, 2002; Porter, 2006). More intensive agricultural practices, due to economic pressures, led to more pollutants in the runoff from farms. Forestry practices became less sustainable since forests were not actively managed. There were also increased discharges from wastewater treatment plants and faulty septic systems. Increased development contributed to runoff from impervious surfaces and there was increased building on hills and near attractive streams, which increased erosion (Appleton, 2002). In the early 1990s, because of the deteriorating water quality, coupled with changes in federal regulation and potential compliance costs, New York City reexamined its water supply strategy. Under the Safe Drinking Water Act Amendments of 1986, the City would normally have been required to filter its surface water supplies unless it could demonstrate that it had taken other actions to protect its customers from harmful water contamination. For instance, a filtration avoidance determination or waiver can be granted to water suppliers if they have a comprehensive watershed protection program ensuring natural filtration and compliance with water quality standards (Murphy et al., 1995). The alternative was to spend $4–6 billion to install a filtration plant (plus ¼ billion per year operating costs) (Appleton, 2002). The filtration plant would have doubled the cost of water to residents and worsened water taste as well. Presented with a choice between provision of clean water through a major investment in a new treatment facility or managing the watershed, New York City decided that using natural filtration through watershed management was more cost effective. A state law dating from the beginning of the reservoir projects gives the City the right to take what measures are necessary to preserve the quality of its drinking water (Gold, 1990). In 1990, the NYC Department of Environmental Protection Agency, headed by Commissioner Albert Appleton, developed a set of regulations, the first since 1954, which restricted development and farming activities in the watershed. This was 1905 Construction on reservoirs and other infrastructure in the Catskill Mountain and Hudson Valley watersheds. City obtains legal authorization to take land in the watersheds by eminent domain and begins to do so. Regulations to preserve drinking water quality enacted. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency promulgates new rules to reduce microbial contamination under the Safe Drinking Water Act. Water quality deteriorates Regulations to preserve drinking water quality to comply with the Safe Drinking Water Act are drafted by the City's Department of Environmental Protection. Conflict ensues. The New York State Department of Agriculture works with farmers and the City to facilitate dialogue and problem-solving. The City and about 30 watershed communities sign the New York City Watershed Agreement. 500 farmers were signed up for the Whole Farm Program. 93% of farmers had chosen to participate in the program, well above the 85% that was stipulated in the Agreement. 1800 acres are in conservation easements and 1375 acres are in agricultural easements. Over 200 business listings are in the Pure Catskills Guide to Farm Fresh Products 6 The New York Metropolitan Statistical Area has almost 19 million inhabitants, including some in New Jersey and Connecticut, but we focus on those on New York City water. 1954 1986 1980s 1990 Early 1990s 1997 1998 2002 2003 2009 Various sources as indicated in text. seen as unfair by farmers and other property owners who would be affected; they thought that New York City residents should pay for what the farmers perceived as changes in property rights (Gold, 1990). Years of what was described as “open warfare” ensued (Nickens, 1998). Appleton's office worked to diffuse the confrontation. The City approached the New York State Department of Agriculture to ask them to help (Appleton, 2002). High level administrators of the Department made helpful suggestions for creating a dialogue with farmers such as mutual education on the problems faced by the City and by farmers in the Catskills. Ultimately, Appleton agreed to let the farmers themselves design and run a program to reduce pollution from farms. In 1997, the City and about 30 watershed communities signed the New York City Watershed Agreement which paid farmers and others to implement changes to preserve water quality. The agreement was estimated to cost $1.4 billion, a significant saving over the new water treatment facility (Nickens, 1998). Activities included upgrading sewage treatment plants and septic systems, acquiring conservation easements, buying land from willing sellers, and developing innovative agriculture and forestry programs (Nickens, 1998). The latter included having farmers sign up for a Whole Farm Planning Program to reduce pollution by implementing best management practices and upgrading manure handling facilities. Technical teams worked to find combinations that improved water quality and also addressed the business and labor needs of farmers. The City also paid for technical assistance, research, and monitoring support that the new Watershed Agricultural Council (consisting of both farmers and government staff) contracted for. Appleton (2002) indicated that it was an ecosystem approach, not a pollutant by pollutant approach, although less comprehensive than the Munich case. In exchange for a voluntary program, the farmers committed to obtaining participation by 85% of the relevant farmers within five years. Farmers were also involved with recruiting and training farmers in the Munich case, but in a less formal way. If the program didn't work, the City had the right to impose restrictive regulations. This represented a credible threat to underpin the search for mutually beneficial programs and policies. By 1998, almost 500 dairy and livestock farms had signed up for the program, including one who had threatened physical violence (Nickens, 1998). Within five years after the Whole Farm Program was created, 93% of farmers had chosen to participate and there are Author's personal copy G. Grolleau, L.M.J. McCann / Ecological Economics 76 (2012) 87–94 reports of farmers wondering how they can become part of the watershed (Appleton, 2002). Similar to the Munich case, there is an eco-label for agricultural products from the region, “Catskill Family Farms”, now “Catskills Pure” that is managed by the Watershed Agricultural Program (Lydon, 1999). It represents farmers who are participating in the program to improve water quality but the products are not organic. Increasingly, the program seems to be benefiting from the “buy local” movement in the U.S.; they have a Farm to Market Program that helps to connect communities to farmers (Watershed Agricultural Program, 2010). Land acquisition, as in the Munich case, was another important strategy to improve water quality. This corresponds to the wellknown strategy for dealing with pollution, internalizing the externality by the agent being negatively affected purchasing the polluting firm, i.e. integrating the two activities in a single decision unit (Castle, 1965). Demsetz (1967) indicates that both contracting and purchase are options to internalize externalities. However, “…if there are several externalities, so that several such contracts will need to be negotiated, or if the contractual agreements should be difficult to police, then outright purchase will be the preferred course of action” (p. 357–358). This was certainly the case for the Munich and NYC watersheds. Land acquisition was voluntary (willing seller, full market value) but the City also needed to prioritize its acquisitions to efficiently meet water quality objectives (Pires, 2004). The property owned by New York City in 2001 was located closest to the reservoirs. High priority areas for further land acquisition are located in the lower portions of the watersheds, near the reservoirs (Catskill Center for Conservation and Development, 2001). However, the Watershed Agreement stipulated that the City solicit purchase of (not necessarily actually purchase) 143,745 ha of land in the watershed between 1997 and 2007 and this has gone more slowly than expected (Pires, 2004). Another strategy was conservation easements. By 2003, the agency had acquired over 1800 ha in conservation easements (Pires, 2004). There were also 1375 ha under agricultural easements. The parties were able to take advantage of the existing Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program from the United States Department of Agriculture. Munich was also able to benefit from existing programs, as previously mentioned. The long-standing animosity between people living in the watershed and the governmental agencies from New York City represented an obstacle to this agreement. Pires (2004) and other authors put these relationships in a more general category of critical water resource conflict narratives where a powerful place dominates and extracts resources from a subordinate place. In addition, there was a lack of understanding of the situation of each party. The complexity of the changes required was also an issue. There were two other major parties in addition to the farmers, residents of towns and owners of forested areas. Diversity of the farms as well as the diversity of the stakeholders would tend to increase transaction costs compared to a more homogeneous landscape and population as was the case in Munich. While various organic standards have existed in the United States, national legislation was only passed in 1990 and the regulations were implemented in 2001. Also, until the 2008 farm bill, there was not specific funding available in the United States to facilitate the switch to organic farming. The institutional environment in the U.S. thus did not enable the City to use the same institutional infrastructure that existed in Germany. 7 In addition, organic production alone would not have addressed one of the main water quality issues in the New York case, pathogens from human and animal waste. 7 As pointed by one of the referees, even if the U.S. has had federal standards for organic certification since 2002, there is a history of conflict regarding issues such as GMO use and sewage sludge. It is not as well-accepted as the organic standard in Germany. There is evidence showing how consumer preferences have shifted in response to that (e.g., Ward et al., 2004; see also Rosenthal, 2011). 91 A factor that facilitated this agreement was that the Commissioner of the New York City Department of Environmental Protection, Albert Appleton, was open to new ways of thinking about the problem and new solutions (Appleton, 2002). He had a background in management and environmental policy, not engineering, so was more willing to consider non-engineering solutions to the problem. At the level of institutional environment, the 1989 USEPA rule that precipitated the need for filtration to address pathogens allowed the agency to issue a filtration avoidance determination for facilities that had not previously filtered their water. This regulatory flexibility allowed them to consider non-engineering solutions. Appleton found people in the Department of Agriculture that were willing to help address the rural/urban impasse. He thus made use of existing institutions and the trust that the farmers had in that Department. The fact that the farmers in the Catskills had a high level of social capital also helped them to use collective action to design and run the program themselves and recruit the farmers. The City was also willing to purchase land outright and obtain conservation easements rather than use its eminent domain rights. This was a major concession (Pires, 2004). It is also the case that there were large potential gains available since the cost of the filtration plant was so high. The City could be fairly generous with farmers and still save billions of dollars over time. The City paid the staff costs of the Whole Farm Program, and also the capital costs for some pollution abatement investments (Appleton, 2002). Hoffman (2008; see also Sabatier et al., 2005; Lubell et al., 2002) indicates that sufficient resources make watershed collaborations more likely to succeed. 8 As indicated by the high participation rates and desire of those not in the watershed to participate, the program did more than make the farmers whole, it enabled them to improve their farms and their economic situation. Hoffman (2008) using federal, state, regional and rural controls found that the collaboration in the New York City case generally had positive or neutral effects on population, incomes, unemployment, wages and agricultural employment but negative effects on the construction industry. From the point of view of the environment, EPA issued filtration avoidance determinations in 1993, 1997, 2002 and 2007, indicating that water quality was satisfactory. Thus, while likely having higher transaction costs than the Munich case, the agreement solved the problem satisfactorily. 4. Some Lessons from the Munich and New York City Strategies to Cope with Non-point Source Pollution The previous two sections on the historical background of water supplies in Munich and New York City show that the two cities were benefiting for free from natural filtration services for many years. They eventually noticed a deterioration in their water quality and made the connection to watershed activities, notably intensive farming, and were forced to act. Previously, these two groups of agents, farmers and water suppliers, were using the same environmental assets for different purposes (farming, filtration services) but in a compatible way. Then, because of increased use of chemical inputs in farming, more intensive livestock production, and stricter regulatory requirements applied to water supplies, the previous balance was disturbed. These two competing groups were now using the same scarce resources in an incompatible way (Anderson, 2004). In the case of NYC, the formal or legal allocation of rights to the provision of water quality (dating from the early 1900s) was now in conflict with the perceived rights of individuals in the watershed to use the land as they wished for farming or development. The differences in wealth between the Catskills and the City, and the knowledge that in the U.S. environmental practices for farmers are usually 8 Using a comprehensive survey of empirical literature devoted to watershed partnership, Leach and Pelkey (2001) proposes a comprehensive list of factors contributing to their success including several quoted in our study. Author's personal copy 92 G. Grolleau, L.M.J. McCann / Ecological Economics 76 (2012) 87–94 voluntary, may also have contributed to the strong initial reaction against regulation of farming practices in the New York case. This history also showed that several conditions are likely to influence the level of transaction costs, affecting whether a voluntary contractual agreement is feasible and at what cost it can be implemented. In cases where large gains from trade exist (e.g. NYC case), transaction cost issues may become secondary to win–win opportunities as far as whether an agreement is reached, but are still important as far as the overall cost of the program. Without purporting to be exhaustive, we elucidate several factors that played a significant role in the Munich and New York City arrangements. We then draw some lessons and recommendations based on the experiences of these cities, both of which have been proposed as models for other schemes in their respective countries. Interestingly, the lessons drawn from our case studies are consistent with factors identified in other streams of literature about watershed collaborations (Leach and Pelkey, 2001; Lubell et al., 2002; Sabatier et al., 2005). regulations) can determine, at least partly, reactions towards a potential win–win contractual arrangement (see also Lubell et al., 2002). A clear implication is that decision-makers have to consider both short and longer term time horizons since short term benefits can be more than offset by additional costs generated later. 9 Once precedents are set, either formally or informally, transaction costs are incurred to reverse them (Challen, 2000). We do not contend that voluntary approaches are always better but suggest asking under what circumstances would contracting/negotiating for improved water quality be better than regulations or a tax? For example, in places that already have a well-developed organic system, requiring organic methods could be an efficient way to address multiple environmental issues simultaneously. However, in a country without such standards and markets, more conventional input restrictions might be better. These considerations of time and path dependency are in addition to the problems of sustainability, intergenerational equity, choice of discount rates, etc. that are addressed by several authors in Bromley (1995). 4.1. The Importance of the Institutional Environment at Different Levels The two cases show that the institutional environment (Dietz et al., 2003; Libecap, 1989; Lubell et al., 2002; North, 1990; Ostrom, 1990; Williamson, 2000), including norms, legal frameworks and policy, matters. These deeper levels of institutional environment also shape, to some extent, the level of transaction costs in reaching a quasi-Coasean solution. For instance, it is clear that contractual arrangements were considered, at least partly, because of looming regulatory pressures regarding water quality and the high cost of engineering solutions (i.e. filtration plants). Voluntary strategies may require the existence of conventional regulatory threats with significant economic consequences to be seriously considered. Several contributions have already stressed the role of regulatory threat (and associated costs and loss of flexibility) as a significant driver of voluntary approaches to environmental management (e.g., Alberini and Segerson, 2002; Khanna and Anton, 2002). As a second example, economically efficient rearrangements of property rights can seem unfair, regardless of their formal validity, if they contradict the perceived existing allocation of rights. Also, loss aversion can make beneficiaries very reluctant to become payers - that is, to pay for environmental services which were previously free. Interestingly, in the New York case, both parties (i.e., farmers and the municipality) thought they had, to some extent, the property rights regarding water quality, which created conflict and increased transaction costs. Property rights affect the direction of compensation. While ‘polluter pays’ is an official OECD policy, in practice, it has been the case in the U.S. and E.U. that public authorities do subsidize farmers to improve environmental outcomes (Baylis et al., 2008). Both NYC and Munich water authorities wanted to avoid paying for high-cost engineering solutions, so a compromise with farmers had to be reached. The historical and strong trend towards organic farming in Germany benefited Munich in comparison to New York City. European and German (formal and informal) incentives in favor of organic farming allowed the city to take advantage of pre-existing policies, while this dimension was less important in the New York City case. Moreover, the historically rooted urban–rural antipathy in New York City obviously increased transaction costs and generated the need for intermediaries (e.g. representatives of the Department of Agriculture) and costly and time-consuming efforts to develop less contentious relationships while Munich benefited from better pre-existing relationships with the farming community. It is obvious that history matters and policy instruments rarely start from scratch. In short, transaction costs of reaching a contractual agreement are impacted by path-dependence (Arthur, 1989; see Rammel and van den Bergh, 2002 for an application to environmental policies). Choices made previously (e.g. imposing statutory Lesson 1: Stricter regulations about water quality (with flexibility about how to reach the regulatory targets) may be needed as an impetus to seriously consider voluntary arrangements. Nevertheless, policies rarely start from scratch and overall transaction costs can be increased or decreased according to the weight of history and the institutional environment (Challen, 2000; Libecap, 1989). 4.2. Homogeneity and Number Issues In water quality issues, there is a fairly strong location specificity 10 (watershed services are not fungible like carbon markets), making a case-by-case approach necessary and limiting the scale and scope of the market structure. Watershed services must be exchanged at the watershed level which makes the local context, physical and institutional, very important. The two case studies show that homogeneity (heterogeneity) among farmers and other stakeholders can lead to lower (higher) transaction costs of reaching and enforcing a contractual arrangement (Ostrom, 1990). For instance, the homogeneity of farms in the Munich catchment area contributed to standardized definitions of requirements and allowed mutual exchange of information among farmers. The fact that requirements were standardized in accordance with organic farming rules facilitated enforcement by using pre-existing institutions that are expert in organic farming monitoring. Adopting a whole farm approach rather than a practiceby-practice approach in the two cases increased some costs (by acquiring rights on actions that are not directly tied to water quality issues), but decreased other costs, notably monitoring costs, and probably increased efficiency since synergies among practices could be exploited. A recent USDA report from long-term research programs shows that suites of practices work better than individual practices (USDA, 2010). Contracts may sidestep the measurement problem by specifying the actions in terms of means to an end rather than the end itself, sometimes at the price of sacrificing some allocative efficiency (Bougherara et al., 2009). Interestingly, in the two cases, the arrangement was an interesting mix of one-size-fits-all or shared requirements, but with some flexibility. For instance, Munich enabled some farmers who were not able to meet all organic requirements to participate in the program at a less stringent level with reduced financial incentives. In the New York City case, whole farm plans were developed that incorporated both environmental and 9 These time horizon considerations can be inconsistent with other time horizons such as political elections which can create additional complications. 10 Cities need selected farmers located on the catchment areas and these farmers can propose and get significant payments for their ecosystem services mainly/only from these cities. Author's personal copy G. Grolleau, L.M.J. McCann / Ecological Economics 76 (2012) 87–94 business criteria. Since these were developed on an individual basis, this probably increased transaction costs compared to the Munich case. In addition, the ‘monopsony’ market structure with a municipality as buyer and a limited number of farmers (in comparison with other situations such as the Mississippi River Basin) has seemingly reduced some transaction costs. 11 In a recent paper, Kemkes et al. (2009) suggested that creating a ‘monopsony’ can provide an effective way of delivering ecosystem services, because it is relatively easy to calculate the willingness of the purchasing organization to pay by measuring the benefit of the ecosystem service to the organization's objective function. Indeed, city size and location (developed versus developing countries) can very roughly determine the money available to address water quality issues. Part of the solution can be found in transforming ‘large number cases into smaller numbers when the large numbers form associations, clubs or firms, such as river basin associations’ (Yandle, 1998, p.148; see also Libecap, 1989; Mailath and Postlewaite, 1990; Ostrom, 1990; Paavola and Adger, 2005). Similarly, the efforts of some organizations (e.g. SVM), as a stand-in for individual citizens to contract with farmers, may sometimes constitute a transaction cost economizing strategy to artificially create a quasimonopsony. In the two cases, the arrangement was also facilitated by producers' unions but in different ways. For instance, in Munich the unions of organic producers were effective at promoting organic farming in targeted farms, while in New York City, representatives of farmers were responsible for helping to design the program and getting a minimum percentage of farmers to participate in the program. 12 Lesson 2: Voluntary contractual arrangements are more likely when contractors are homogeneous on each side, embedded in a monopsony-like market structure and not too numerous on the supply side. To some extent, the market structure can be modified in order to reduce overall transaction costs. 4.3. Time and Good Science It is obvious from the two cases that adequate lead time and good science were necessary to reach mutually beneficial agreements. Reaching agreements between two very different groups (i.e., urban water users and farmers) required time to create mutual knowledge and understanding, especially in the New York City case. There are also lag times with management approaches since there is a stock of pollutants in the environment, while changing practices affects the flow. However, timing of regulatory requirements may not allow time for considering contractual approaches as a possible solution and may inadvertently favor engineering solutions, which can clean up drinking water more quickly. Interestingly good science, from neutral and reputable sources, can increase scientific consensus on causes and strategies to fix the problems, which lead to lower transaction costs. Better knowledge and understanding of multidimensional interactions between surface activities and watershed 11 At the same time, a monopsony structure can make the transaction very specific (just one buyer). This effect has been avoided to some extent in the Munich strategy, where the city reduced the asset specificity of the transaction (by prescribing organic), making farmers less dependent on the city of Munich (European incentives under the CAP, market development of organic products in Germany, etc.). Another issue is that creating a new monopsony buyer would incur transaction costs. 12 In some cases, too high a level of concentration on each side of the market can lead to bilateral monopoly issues with uncertain outcomes. Indeed, while negotiating with a unique ‘seller’, e.g., a farmer pool in the Vittel case, was likely to reduce transaction costs on the one hand, it can also serve to increase the monopoly power problem on the other (Déprés et al., 2008). 93 services, especially at the local level, is likely to decrease transaction costs of designing mutually acceptable contractual arrangements. Conversely, lack of such a shared understanding, based on good science, can make the bargaining very contentious where each party suspects the other one of exploiting the situation to his advantage (e.g., Déprés et al., 2008). Scientific findings may not be automatically accepted by all involved groups (Michaels, 2008). Lesson 3: Advance planning and good science can decrease transaction costs of reaching mutually beneficial agreements. Without ignoring other parameters, regulators have to take into account how time flexibility can restrain or enlarge the opportunity set of parties. Given the public nature of good science, this situation can legitimize investments in acquiring better knowledge of relationships between land use and watershed services. 4.4. Visibility Issues Increasing visibility (direct and indirect) of ecosystem services can increase support of citizens for the proposed arrangement. 13 Indeed, being close and visible allows the development of a mutual understanding that reduces transaction costs. This effect was stronger in Munich because of physical proximity and the city's initiatives in terms of sourcing food products from local areas, preserving water quality, and organizing bicycling tours in the catchment. New York City is also much more limited in using natural visibility than is the case in Quito, Ecuador, where residents can see the snowcapped peaks that provide their water, which facilitates transforming beneficiaries into supporters and payers (Hahn, 2006.). As described by Hawn, “walking out of Penn Station onto 34th Street, any New Yorker who looks up will see concrete and neon, taxi-lines and donut shops. The forested slopes of the Catskills, some of the city's main watersheds, lie roughly eighty miles to the north; they are very much out of sight and, usually, out of mind”. Tourism in the Catskills allows some urban residents to observe the agricultural production practices that affect their water supply, and natural visibility has been substituted to some extent with education campaigns. On the marketing dimension, New York City also supported an ecolabel initiative Pure Catskills which was adapted in 2004 to “emphasize the connection between our region's good food and the famously pure water that flows to New York City taps” (Watershed Agricultural Council, 2010). So, increasing visibility can also provide suppliers with additional (and not necessarily monetary) benefits (e.g. social image, access to new markets). Lesson 4: Visibility matters. It can decrease overall transaction costs by facilitating mutual knowledge and appreciation among potential transactors or their representatives. Increasing visibility can be a strategy to decrease the costs of reaching and maintaining an agreement over time. In sum, the design of watershed protection programs needs to begin with an understanding of the unique institutional and physical environment which facilitates some options and constrains others. For instance, building on existing policies and institutions (as in the Munich case) can decrease transaction costs. Nevertheless, lessons can be learned from the successes (and failures) in other situations. 13 This recommendation is consistent with recent research in behavioral economics (Sunstein and Thaler, 2008). Moreover, Pedersen (2000) provided empirical support to show that environmental concerns are likely to be accentuated in areas where the environmental impact is visible and tangible. Author's personal copy 94 G. 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Based on anecdotal evidence from farming activities, we introduce the concept of negative positional goods, that is, goods that destroy status in a given reference group, and show how interactions between status concerns and profitability can lead to unexpected outcomes. Several policy implications are drawn. Keywords: behavior, innovation, positional concerns, status, sustainable development JEL Classification Codes: Q0, Q50 Apart from economic payoffs, social status seems to be the most important incentive and motivating force of social behavior. — John Harsanyi 1976, Nobel laureate Social influence constitutes a convincing but frequently underestimated candidate to explain numerous a priori irrational human behaviors (Cialdini 2005). Among ways through which individuals are influenced by others in society, status and positional concerns are of a paramount importance. Indeed, in many cases, individuals might engage in activities or purchase a given good not in response to a basic need, but to gain social status. The relevance of positional concerns is now well-established. Since Veblen (1899), an increasing number of scholars have explored the issue of whether people prefer having more of a good in absolute terms or more than others in society and Salima Salhi is a Ph.D. student at the Centre de recherche en économie appliquée pour le développement (CREAD). Gilles Grolleau is a professor at Montpellier Supagro and member of the Laboratoire Montpellierain d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée (LAMETA). Naoufel Mzoughi is a research fellow at INRA Ecodéveloppement. And, Angela Sutan is an associate professor at Burgundy School of Business and member of the Laboratoire d'Expérimentation en Sciences Sociales et Analyse des Comportements (LESSAC). 799 ©2012, Journal of Economic Issues / Association for Evolutionary Economics 800 Notes and Communications showed that relative standings matter (e.g., Alpizar, Carlsson and Johansson-Stenman 2005; Bekir, El Harbi and Grolleau 2011; Brekke, Howarth and Nyborg 2003; Carlsson, Johansson-Stenman and Martinsson 2007; Carlsson and Qin 2010; Chao and Schor 1998; Duesenberry 1949; Easterlin 1995; Frank 1985a, 1985b; Greene and Nelson 2007; Grolleau and Saïd 2008; Hirsch 1976; Johannsson-Stenman, Carlsson and Daruvala 2002; Neumark and Postlewaite 1993; Solnick and Hemenway 1998, 2005, 2009; Solnick, Hong and Hemenway 2007). Without purporting to review consistently this sizeable and increasing literature, we would like to emphasize four outstanding points.1 First, relative position matters and matters differently across domains and reference groups. Status markers are not fixed but evolve over time. Second, many people seek status as an end in itself and are willing to give up money just to be better than others. Third, positional issues affect several important aspects of life such as happiness and longevity. In a similar vein, Brekke, Howarth and Nyborg (2003) investigate the Hirsch hypothesis (i.e., an increasing portion of expenditure is allocated to status seeking as average income rises) and show that status seeking can lead to detrimental effects on environmental quality.2 The purpose of this note is to examine the role of positional concerns as drivers or barriers to the adoption of socially desirable behaviors in situations where there is no conventional prisoner dilemma (i.e., where social and private interests converge). The originality of our manuscript is at least fourfold. First, unlike previous literature that has mainly investigated positional concerns with regards to consumers’ decision making, that is, considered the demand side, we focus on the supply side, especially farmers. We present and discuss some applications related to farming activities in developed and less developed countries because they are major actors in the environmental realm. Second, we introduce the concept of negative positional goods, that is, goods destroying status in a given reference group. In spite of possible benefits, displaying these goods generates stigma in some reference groups and can be counterproductive in terms of status seeking. Third, we discuss some recent results concluding to weak positional concerns in poor societies.3 We contend that not only thresholds matter (reaching a minimum standard before exhibiting positional preferences) but especially researchers may have missed taking into account the adequate status dimensions. Fourth, we suggest ways to overcome positional bias in order to encourage agents to adopt socially desirable behaviors. The remainder of this note is organized as follows. The second section characterizes positional concerns, especially in the context of farming activities, and shows how they can prevent the adoption of socially desirable behaviors such as protecting the environment. Examples and micro-case studies emphasize how positional concerns can make people deviate from neoclassical predictions. The third section is devoted to strategies that can be used to overcome the positional bias. The fourth section concludes. Notes and Communications 801 How Positional Concerns Can Prevent the Adoption of a priori Win-Win Strategies? Positional concerns rely on the postulate that individuals have interdependent utility functions. They frequently compare themselves to others from a reference group on some dimensions. Comparisons can be upward and downward. In short, people express higher (lower) happiness levels when they are better (lower) ranked than peers. According to Solnick and Hemenway (2009), “the literature on positional goods sometimes suggests that people typically want to be superior to others.” Agents not only take into account their absolute level on a given dimension (e.g., income, office size) but also how they perform in comparison to people from the same reference group (e.g., colleagues, peers). These comparisons can push individuals to adopt behaviors4 that will improve their relative position, either by using constructive or destructive strategies (Grolleau, Mzoughi and Sutan 2009). A crucial point is to identify the dimensions on which the social comparison is performed. For example, according to societies, farmers can compare on the revenue, crop yields, farm size, ethnic origin or number of spouses. Some papers empirically supported that positional concerns are weak in poor societies but they may have missed the dimension on which these “poor” people are positional (e.g., yields or farm size rather than income). Using a tailored survey experiment in Northern Ethiopia, Akay, Martinsson and Medhin (2011) found “positional concerns neither in income per se nor in income from aid projects among the farmers” and concluded that “positional concerns are positively correlated with absolute level of income of a country.” Without questioning their result regarding income, we contend that various reference groups can use various status markers. Unlike western societies, local reference groups do not necessarily use income as a major status marker. Consequently, extrapolating positional concerns by considering only income can eclipse other status markers that matter much more in a given reference group. For example, according to Bevan and Pankhurst (2006), in rural Ethiopia, “most power relations between social groups and categories have historically involved wellestablished hierarchies of status supported by norms and rules favoring superiors which are often violently enforced. Historic status discriminators include age, gender and class and various manifestations of ethnicity, clan, religion, occupation and race.” In the same vein, Carlsson and Qin (2010) indicated that, compared to results in developed countries, “the concern for relative standing seems to be equally strong among rural households in China.” In other words, dimensions on which agents from a given group compare and seek status are culturally determined and evolve over time (Bekir, El Harbi and Grolleau 2011). Figure 1 presents anecdotal evidence regarding the wide use and misuse of status symbols in farming activities in various cultural settings. Lesson 1: Before aiming at modifying agents’ behavior, it is crucial to identify what dimensions are used as status markers. 802 Notes and Communications Figure 1. Some Status Symbols in Farming Communities In developed and developing countries, status seeking is a major driver explaining the adoption or nonadoption of some innovations (e.g., Mzoughi 2011; Rogers 2003; Veblen 1899). In some cases, innovations that can increase income are purchased such as ploughs, but not used for their functional properties but just displayed at the front of observers (Duran 1967; Lanneau 1967). Even if suggested innovations are income-enhancing and environmentally-friendly, farmers can be reluctant to adopt them if these innovations decrease their status on other dimensions in their reference groups (Mzoughi 2011). We provide below some documented examples. The Yield Clubs in Farming Communities In the 1970’s, reaching high yields became a status marker in several farming communities. For instance, in United Kingdom and France, several clubs (such as the 10-tons wheat club) were created on the initiative of chemical inputs producers. To become a member of these clubs, farmers have to reach high yields. Concretely, farmers were encouraged to adopt very intensive farming methods to reach these yields, resulting in environmental and health problems. These clubs became very prestigious and farmers were willing to devote considerable resources to participate (Groussard and Colomer 2001). Interestingly, while these clubs have lost their prestige in developed countries, they won their spurs in developing countries. For instance, a 5-ton wheat club has been recently created in Algeria with an increasing number of farmers seeking to become members (AïtSaïd 2011). Fantasist Statistics and Propaganda in Communist Romania During the communist era, among countries of COMECOM (Council for Mutual Economic Assistance), Romania had a bad reputation in reporting agricultural statistics (Labaronne, 1992). Before 1984 (the year with the highest export value for Romania), the production of cereals at harvesting time was announced region by region on the public television, before publication in the statistics books, leading to a kind of race between regional leaders. Winning that race was important at the time, since the regional leader would win extra salary and consideration. Therefore, evening after evening, announced quantities were higher and higher, even from unlikely regions. The reporting of quantities was four to ten times larger than the real production (Le Cacheux 1990). The executive committee of COMECOM concluded that Romania had an excess supply of cereals and turned to large exports. Noteworthy, even the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was convinced that Romania had an excess supply. Merely nothing remained for the national market and the country was confronted to the biggest alimentary crisis in its history. The Haverstore Silos and Other Status Conveying Goods In his seminal book, Rogers (2003) emphasized how the status dimension can explain the diffusion of some innovations. “A spectacular example of the status-providing capacity of certain farm innovations is provided by the diffusion of ‘Harvestore’ silos in the rural United States. These silos are constructed of steel and glass, painted navy blue, and prominently display the maker’s name. Their height dominates a farm’s skyline, so they are easily visible from public roads. Because Harvestores are extremely expensive . . . most agricultural experts recommend that U.S. farmers buy a much cheaper type of silo for storing their corn and hay silage. But the status-conferring quality of the Harvestores appeals to many farmers. In fact, some American farmers own, and prominently display, two Harvestores, perhaps the rural equivalent of the two-car garage in a suburban home.”1 Constructing these silos was harming both profits and landscape, but they were strong status symbols in the farming communities. ____________ “It was sort of a good status symbol,” Lucile Cole says of silos. “If you didn’t have a silo, you weren’t quite as good a farmer” (http://starbeacon.com/currents/x343649743/SILOS/print). 1 Notes and Communications 803 Of course, various reference groups are not isolated and influence each other in different ways. For instance, Bruni and Stanca (2006) argue that television “contributes to shifting up the benchmark for people’s positional concerns: income and consumption levels are compared not only to those of their actual social reference group, but also to those of their virtual reference group, defined and constructed by television programs. As a consequence, television viewing makes people less satisfied with their income and wealth levels. In this perspective, TV can be seen as a powerful factor in speeding up the positional treadmill, through comparison with higher benchmark groups.” Knight, Song and Gunatilaka(2009) found that “most rural people [in China] confine their reference groups to the village: their orbits of comparison are narrow.” Using survey data on several European countries, Clark and Senik (2009) found that colleagues are the most frequently cited reference group. Moreover, there is evidence that low status people are more likely to engage in compensatory behaviors and “over-consume” goods that confer status (Caplowitz 1967; Van Kempen 2007; Veblen 1899). Applied to environmental issues, this overconsumption of status signalling goods can ultimately reinforce the environmental impacts generated by low-status population through status-related strategies (Brekke, Howarth and Nyborg 2003). Let us now consider agents (e.g., farmers) which face the decision to adopt an environmentally friendly innovation. Rational agents will weigh the benefits against the costs of adoption and adopt if the expected utility derived from adopting is greater than the status quo (reservation) utility, that is, if the net expected benefits are positive. For the sake of exposition, we assume that agents have a utility function which includes only two components, profit and status. While the former is wellknown in the literature, the latter is less considered. Interestingly, one of the leading researchers in innovation diffusion, Everett Rogers (2003), devoted several pages of his seminal book to emphasize that in addition to profitability issues, the relative advantage of an innovation includes the ability to deliver status. In many circumstances, status dimensions interact with sustainable development issues, either in a neutral, positive or negative way. Interestingly, observable features of environmentally friendly behaviors may constitute (positive) negative positional goods, goods that convey social information that stigmatizes (magnifies) the adopter and lowers (increases) his/her social rank. The stigma that arises from negative positional goods may also create negative social attitudes and discrimination against adopters (Orbach 2006). Table 1 describes the expected behavior of agents regarding the introduction of an innovation. When the innovation impacts status and profits differently, the aggregate effect is determined by the relative weights of these two components at the individual level. Indeed, individuals can differ in the weights they give to these components leading to different outcomes. Moreover, loss aversion can reinforce a nochange option in indeterminate cases because a gain will be less valued than a loss of a similar amount. 804 Notes and Communications Table 1. Expected Reactions to the Introduction of an Innovation Profit enhancing No profit variation Profit reducing Status enhancing Adoption Adoption Indeterminate No status variation Indeterminate Status quo Non adoption Status reducing Indeterminate Non-adoption Non adoption Lesson 2: Rather than just verifying whether the proposed changes are economically profitable and environmentally friendly, it is crucial to understand how the proposed modifications interact with relevant status dimensions. Moreover, an adequate analysis of relationship between profitability and status can require taking into account different time horizons. Let us consider the example of an environmentally friendly innovation that delivers immediate but negative status output and delayed economic benefits. Later, the same innovation can also deliver status benefits. Innovations addressing climate change are frequently perceived as immediately and individually costly in economic and status terms while promising future collective benefits. For instance, it is well-known that in spite of its environmental benefits organic farming is frequently badly perceived in some farmers communities while its profitability becomes better than traditional farming after some years. Because of hyperbolic discounting bias, farmers can express a real interest in adopting the innovation but perpetually procrastinate (Frederick, Loewenstein and O’Donoghue 2002), leading to a lower diffusion compared to “rational” expectations. Lesson 3: Taking into account the timing of costs and gains regarding status and money is crucial to predict whether agents will adopt a given innovation. Strategies to Channel Positional Concerns Given the rooted desire of human beings for status differences, Frey (2008) argues that blocking a dimension that can confer status (e.g., by using taxation) will simply push individuals to seek other ways to differentiate themselves from others. Consequently, rather than preventing people from seeking status, a better solution is to channel relative issues and status seeking in a socially desirable direction. McAdams (1992) argues that relative preferences can be channeled to promote private provision of public goods. For instance, California has passed a bill that allows owners of hybrid cars (e.g., Prius) with a specific sticker to drive in the high-occupancy vehicle lanes with just a single occupant, reinforcing both status benefits and reducing commuting time. This strategy publicizes and increases the visibility of the socially Notes and Communications 805 desirable behavior, which results in a higher diffusion of the considered behavior (Griskevicius, Tybur and Van den Bergh 2010). Even at a country level, positional preferences over public goods can be initiated by increasing the visibility of the concerned dimension. Ayres and Nalebuff (2005) report an anecdote regarding how Norway expressed positional preferences based on the publication of the Environmental Sustainability Index: “After Norway came in second, the prime minister asked for a meeting to discuss the results. Rather than crowing about Norway’s superb showing, all he wanted to talk about was what his country could do to overtake Finland and become number one.” In short, increasing the visibility constitutes an excellent candidate to guide people in socially desirable directions. Lesson 4: Increasing the visibility of socially desirable innovations can increase their status conveying properties, resulting in higher diffusion, ceteris paribus. To align status seeking with socially desirable objectives, innovation promoters must understand what confers status in a given community to tailor the innovations for this community. A clear strategy can be to eliminate the negative positional dimensions of suggested innovations which will mechanically increase the likelihood of adoption, ceteris paribus. Related to this point, innovations are sometimes framed in a way that emphasizes the loss on a given status dimension (e.g., by adopting organic farming, the yields are lower), even if there are gains on other dimensions, such as an improved profitability. If some pre-existing status dimensions are harmed by the suggested innovation, a strategy frequently used is to redefine the dimensions on which status can be delivered or the reference group (Clark and Senik 2009; Wilkinson 2006). Indeed, getting status in other reference groups can counterbalance the negative status effects in the initial reference group. For instance, several contests have been created recently to compare entities on socially desirable dimensions, such as the Newsweek environmental ranking of the biggest companies in developed and emerging world markets (www.thedailybeast.com/) or at a lower level, the French national contest of the most bloomed grassland. Lesson 5: Eliminating or at least attenuating negative positional dimensions of socially desirable innovations can increase their diffusion, ceteris paribus. Conclusion Positional concerns matter a lot and form an important part of the motivation system in societies, especially in rural communities. Positional issues can explain behaviors that would otherwise be labeled as “irrational,” either in developed countries or in developing countries. Consequently, ignoring the interactions between suggested innovations and status considerations in various reference groups can lead to flawed recommendations. Even if some more conventional conditions are fulfilled (from which profitability is the most natural candidate), status effects can prevent the adoption of innovations that are proven to be economically profitable and 806 Notes and Communications environmentally friendly. Indeed, some win-win innovations are perceived as negative positional goods, which result in lower rates of adoption. Rather than just asserting this disappointing outcome, we also suggested several strategies by which innovation promoters can reinforce the diffusion of innovations by explicitly taking into account relevant status dimensions. Nevertheless, the propositions advanced are only a first step toward a coherent analysis of how positional issues influence the adoption of innovations. There is ample room for further study of interactions between statusseeking behavior and pro-environmental changes. Notes 1. 2. 3. 4. An exhaustive review of these works is beyond the scope of our contribution. The interested reader can refer to Grolleau, Mzoughi and Saïd (2012) for a recent review of the literature. More formally, the authors demonstrate that Hirsch’s hypothesis holds true but under particular assumptions regarding the structure of individual preferences. Brekke, Howarth and Nyborg (2003) report anecdotal evidence supporting that “status-seeking behavior is common in societies with comparatively low consumption levels.” Individuals can also have psychological defense mechanisms to maintain their subjective well-being even if they experience a disadvantageous relative position (Frey 2008; Wilkinson 2006). 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Antoine Beretti 2, place Viala, Bâtiment 26 Montpellier SupAgro, UMR1135 LAMETA, 34060 Montpellier, FRANCE [email protected] Gilles Grolleau (Corresponding author) 2, place Viala, Bâtiment 26 Montpellier SupAgro, UMR1135 LAMETA, 34060 Montpellier, FRANCE [email protected] Abstract : Departing from standard applications of utility theory where only outcomes matter, we investigate whether past states and alternative causes of an environmental problem affect respondents’ interest and willingness-to-pay to improve it. We use a quasi-experimental survey over a random sample of citizens in a small French region. Respondents stated their perceived value of solving an environmental problem related to soil degradation. We find that respondents’ interest (measured by the response rate) is strongly affected by the combination of past states and alternative causes whereas results on stated willingness-to-pay are inconclusive. Our results suggest that loss aversion can be cancelled depending on the presence of a cause and on its nature. Several policy implications are drawn. Keywords: Behavioral economics; Field experiment; Loss aversion; Reference-dependence; Soil quality. JEL codes: C93, Q28. Acknowledgements: We are particularly grateful to Isabelle Feix, Gary Libecap, David Masclet, Naoufel Mzoughi, Alban Thomas, and participants at the workshop ‘A Primer in Economic Analysis of Soil-Related Ecosystem Services (Montpellier, November, 18, 2010) for many helpful comments and suggestions. We are also grateful to the French research program GESSOL sponsored by the Ministère de l'Ecologie, du Développement durable, des Transports et du Logement, the Agency for the Environment and Energy Management(ADEME). The usual disclaimer applies. 1 Do Past States and Causes of Soil Degradation Affect Stated Willingness-to-Pay Values? Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Survey 1. Introductive remarks Numerous economists and psychologists have challenged the conventional perspective where utility depends exclusively on outcomes and consequences and have suggested that reference points and alternative causes of a given situation combined with outcomes can shape utility (Gregory et al., 1993; Brown et al., 2005; Bulte et al., 2005; Masiero and Hensher, 2011; Hjorth and Fosgerau, 2011). According to Kahneman and Tversky (1979), reference points will determine whether a proposed change is framed as a loss or a gain, which will in turn affect how an individual evaluates alternatives. Indeed, the asymmetry of the value function implies that losses from a reference point have a greater impact upon choices than the equivalent sized gain from the same reference point. Loss aversion means that people are more motivated and more willing to pay to avoid losses than to acquire gains of the same amplitude. For instance, researchers from the University of California “told one group of homeowners that they could save 50 cents a day by carrying out energy efficiency improvements in their home. They told a second group of homeowners that they would continue to lose 50 cents a day if they did nothing. The second group was 300% more likely to carry out the improvements” (Goldstein et al., 2007). At the same time, there is a small but growing literature stressing that willingness-to-pay (WTP)1 for addressing an environmental problem differs if the problem is man-caused or nature-caused (Walker et al., 2009; Bulte at al., 2005). The roots of this idea lie in the psychological literature related to the attribution bias and will be discussed later (Brown et al., 2005). Nevertheless, investigating the combined effects of these two parameters, namely reference points and alternative causes, on an environmental problem is scarce. The purpose of our contribution is to fill this gap by using quasi-experimental survey to test whether reference points and alternative causes affect respondents’ interest2 and WTP values regarding an environmental problem. The originality of this contribution is at least threefold. First, we combine reference points and alternative causes in the same quasi-experimental survey on a 1 There is a recent controversy regarding whether the endowment effect is more a by-product of the experimental procedure than a real phenomenon (see the contributions of Isoni et al., 2011 and Plott and Zeiler, 2011). 2 We define respondents’ interest as the importance they devote to the survey and we measure it by the response rate. 2 random sample of French inhabitants. Indeed, we contend that people do not take into account reference points per se in an isolated way, but also consider the context such as alternative causes. In other terms, even with identical reference points, people are likely to react differently according to the alternative causes leading to these points (Bulte et al., 2005). Second, unlike water or air, soil degradation in France and European Union has not received the same level of attention in policymaking. At the same time, environmental policies are under consideration, such as well as the European Commission proposal for a Soil Framework Directive (COM(2006) 232) aiming at ensuring ‘an adequate level of protection for all soils in Europe’3. Third, investigating this issue can usefully inform policymakers on how to improve policy framing by considering small, low-cost interventions that could have first-order effects. The remainder of this exploratory paper is organized as follows. Section 2 overviews the related literature and formulates testable hypotheses. Section 3 is devoted to the empirical strategy by describing why and how data have been collected and treated. Section 4 provides the results and discusses them. Section 5 emphasizes policy implications and concludes. 2. Related literature and hypotheses Given that the quasi-experimental design combines reference points and alternative causes, we successively overview the literature related to each of these two dimensions by emphasizing applications to the environmental realm. As stressed before, reference points and underpinning alternative causes are likely to interact and for sake of exposition we first discuss them independently, then in combination, and finally we draw some testable hypotheses. 21. The loss aversion bias Casual observations and numerous experiments show that losses from a reference point have a greater impact upon choices than the equivalent sized gain from the same reference point. Loss aversion means that people are more motivated to avoid losses than to acquire gains. In other words, individuals are more reluctant to give up something they already own rather than acquiring the same thing if they do not own it previously (endowment effect). This bias is frequently used to explain the observed disparity between WTA and WTP (Tversky and Kahneman, 1991). The two common explanations of this WTA-WTP disparity are either a 3 Unlike France, soil conservation has been a major concern in United States since several decades. 3 disutility from parting with one’s endowment and/or an extra utility from ownership which is not anticipated by individuals who are not endowed with the good (Bischoff, 2008). Horowitz and McConnell (2002) reviewed more than 40 studies devoted to the WTA-WTP gap and found that the ratio WTA/WTP is ‘highest for non-market goods, next highest for ordinary private goods, and lowest for experiments involving forms of money’. The fact that the WTAWTP discrepancy tends to be larger when valuing public goods compared to private goods is surprising. Indeed, the non-excludability property of public goods implies that loss aversion is likely to be weaker for public goods (Bischoff, 2008; Biel et al., 2011). Biel et al. (2011) argue that the WTA-WTP discrepancy when valuing public goods is largely a result of asymmetric emotional experiences and moral perceptions in the two cases. A major implication of this literature is that all environmental improvements are not identical in contributors’ mind. If the environmental improvements delivered by a given policy are perceived by respondents as a way not to lose something they already have, we contend that they will be more willing to pay. A direct implication is related to policy framing where messages are likely to be more effective if they are framed in terms of what people stand to lose (Cornforth, 2009). ‘That loss should be something [they] currently possess and should also be accompanied with a clear and specific action [they] can personally take to avoid such a loss.” (Martin, 2007). Applying this suggestion to draft agro-environmental policies for instance could have first order effects at low cost. Most experiments testing loss aversion have logically concerned private goods and to a lesser extent public goods (Bischoff, 2008; Biel et al., 2011). Despite the formal definition of public goods in economics (non-rivalry and nonexclusion), we contend that loss aversion makes sense even if the good considered has public good properties (Gregory et al., 1993; Horowitz and McConnel, 2002; Beretti et al., 2009; Bischoff, 2008). Indeed, people can feel a special sense of ownership even on some environmental goods characterized by public good properties (Biel et al., 2011). Soil quality is an interesting candidate in this respect as it combines private and public good properties. Indeed, lands in France are mostly privately owned, and landowners suffer first from soil degradation. As a production factor either for agriculture or development, non-users can be excluded from using the land. At the same time, soil has additional functions, which deliver public goods such as carbon sequestration, biodiversity sink or landscape. We contend that people will support more efforts to restore a lost state in terms of soil quality than to acquire a net gain. Our first hypothesis can be formulated as follows: 4 H1: People will express more interest and a higher WTP if environmental initiatives are framed as restoring a lost state rather than as creating a net gain. 22. The alternative causes bias People make systematic and often biased inferences about the causes of a given situation and these attributions strongly influence their behaviors (Heider, 1958; Kelley, 1973; Weiner, 1986; Tetlock, 1995). The psychological literature on attribution is abundant and has mainly analyzed biases regarding whether people infer that a situation is due to personal factors (internal attribution) or to situational factors (external attribution). Attributions are frequently classified according to three causal dimensions: locus of control (internal versus external), stability (whether the cause changes over time), and controllability (whether oneself can control the cause). For instance, natural catastrophes can be classified as external, unstable and uncontrollable while oneself’s efforts can be classified as internal, unstable and controllable. In judging policymakers, people may give too much credit to those who were simply lucky and too much blame to those who were unlucky (Mankiw, 2006). In comparison, economic applications regarding the effect of attributed causes on behaviors remain scarce (e.g. Babcock et al., 1996; 1997; Bazerman et al., 1997; Ettinger and Jehiel, 2010) and relate mainly to the self-serving bias where people tend to arrive at judgments of what is fair or right that are biased in the direction of their own self-interests. In the environmental realm, some contributions (e.g., Walker et al., 1999; Brown et al., 2002; Bulte et al., 2005) investigated whether people are willing to pay more for man-caused problems than nature-caused problems. Their results diverge, but the most recent study (Bulte et al., 2005) found evidence in favor of the hypothesis that people are willing to pay significantly more to correct man-caused problems compared to nature-caused problems. They found no support for the hypothesis stating that WTP will be driven by the degree of responsibility people feel for the damages (Walker et al., 1999). Recently, Beretti et al., (2009) commenting on the findings of Bulte et al. (2005) called for further research regarding the relevance of the external versus internal duality usually addressed in the literature. Indeed, if the attribution can be external from the viewpoint of the individual, it can at the same time remain quite internal from the point of view of the group or society the individual feels attached to. Even if the individual does not feel himself responsible for the degradation of the environment, he could exhibit some sort of solidarity with others and thereby could feel responsible for the 5 society he belongs to. Based on the previous contributions, we formulate two additional hypotheses: H2: People will express more interest and a higher WTP when a cause is stipulated compared to a situation where no cause is indicated. H3: People will express more interest and a higher WTP when a human cause is stipulated compared to a situation where a non-human or natural cause is involved. As far as we know, hypothesis H2 has not been formally investigated in the existing literature4. Actually we consider that when a cause is explained, the inferences about the cause of the degradation are easier, and the attribution of the responsibility is suggested. In opposition, not explaining the cause of the degradation consists in offering the choice to the individual to infer by himself, or even not infer at all. We thus support the idea that the presence of a cause relieves the individual from the cost of his inferences. Furthermore it also reduces the possibility of mixed inferences by focusing him on a particular attribution (human or natural). 23. Combining the two biases This exploratory paper has no prior claim regarding the combined effect of these two biases. Nevertheless our hypotheses clearly imply that all losses of the same extent but due to different causes are not equal in an individual’s mind. Deriving from the standard graphical representation of the loss aversion bias, we constructed the figure 1 in order to illustrate the combination of alternative causes and loss aversion. As presented above, the stated interest and the stated WTP are hypothetically correlated. In the following, we use the concept of perceived value to describe any of them. The hypothesis of a correlation between the stated interest in a environmental problem and the WTP for it, according to the existence or to the nature of the cause of the related degradation, will be discussed in the following, along with its implication in terms of environmental valuation methodology. [ INSERT FIGURE 1 HERE] 4 One could compare studies that estimate WTA or WTP for environmental goods that are either caused by man (e.g., red tide events due to agricultural runoff) or nature (e.g., beach renourishment after a hurricane). Nevertheless, such a comparison cannot mimic adequately an experimental design which allows to disentangle the effects of various factors that can explain the results. 6 The resulting effect of varying the causes of the loss is an expected mitigation of the loss aversion bias. The gap between the valuation of a gain and the valuation of a particular loss could be widening or shrinking depending on the presence of a cause, as well as of the nature of this cause. Using the following notations, our experimental hypotheses can be formalized: |VG|: individual valuation of an environmental improvement |VG| < |VUL| H1 |VG| < |VNC| |VG| < |VMC| H2 H3 framed as a net Gain (G); |VUL|: individual valuation of an environmental improvement framed as a restoration of an Unexplained Loss (UL); |VUL| < |VNC| |VNC|: individual valuation of an environmental improvement |VUL| < |VMC| framed as a restoration of a Nature-Caused loss (NC); |VNC| < |VMC| |VMC|: individual valuation of an environmental improvement framed as a restoration of a Man-Caused loss (MC). In the next section, we design a quasi-experimental survey which allows us to test these hypotheses. 3. Experimental design In order to investigate the above mentioned hypotheses, we designed a short questionnaire regarding a soil quality improvement policy. The interviewees were asked about their interest in soil quality improvement along with their WTP for a hypothetical (but plausible) soil quality improvement program. In order to test for the hypotheses, the improvement has been described either as a net gain, or as the restoration of a previous loss, or as a restoration of a previous loss which is man-caused, or as a restoration of a previous loss which is naturecaused. Our experimental methodology relies on the two following principles: (1) exactly the same environmental improvement is described across treatments, only the framing of this improvement varies and (2) we managed to change as few words as possible between the different treatments, in order to get the smallest changes. As a consequence, if the smallest 7 differences in wording have an impact in interest or WTP, we can infer that deeper changes in the framing could have even greater impacts on behavior. We first performed a pre-test of the questionnaire on a convenience sample (e.g., friends, colleagues, family) and gathered elements regarding the understanding of soil quality dynamics, the relevance of proposed scenarios and so on. After, we still improved the understanding and attractiveness of the questionnaire by administrating the questionnaire to a random sample of subjects in the streets of Montpellier, allowing us to improve both. In April 2010, the survey was administered to a randomly selected sample of 1760 French citizens living in Lunel (34400) and Sommières (30250) (Montpellier metropolitan area, South of France). These two cities were chosen because of their high frequency of flooding events during the last few years, partly due to a relatively poor soil quality and a high level of concreting. These events received wide news coverage, especially in local media. Every participant received an envelope containing the one-page questionnaire, an accompanying letter describing our study, its purpose and a prepaid return envelope. In an ultimate test phase, reading the accompanying letter and filling the questionnaire took on average 3 minutes. We wrote the letter of solicitation to make it engaging, easy to read and promoting the public benefits of results for environmental policymaking in this particular domain. The letters were identical across treatments. Our experimental design allows us to compare three seemingly relevant variables: response rates under the different treatments, degree of interest in program’s implementation and stated WTP5. We contend that the response rate reflects the interest of interviewees in the tackled issue, which is broader than the interest in the program’s implementation per se. We sent 1760 questionnaires which were randomly divided into four groups of 440 contacts, each group corresponding to one of the four experimental treatments presented hereafter. Here is a presentation of the main differences (in bold) between treatments corresponding to small changes in the framing of the soil quality improvement program, the full survey material being provided in annexes 1a, 1b, 1c, 1d and 1e. In an effort to remain realistic in the 5 We selected the contingent valuation approach. This approach is not immune to criticisms which can lead to consider alternative approaches such as best-worst, conjoint choice or contingent ranking. Interestingly, antecedents of contingent valuations have been used to value soil conservation (Carlson and Hanemann, 2005). Nevertheless, it is important to stress that we are not interested in the elicited value in itself, but the ranking of the values elicited under different treatments. 8 scenarios, we designed these options jointly with researchers of a unit 6 specialized in soil related sciences. Treatment “Gain”: Situation: Consider that soil quality is measurable on a scale ranging from 1 (bad quality) to 10 (excellent quality). In a given French area, soil quality is estimated at 4/10. Project: A sustainable investment program is under consideration and its purpose is to reach a quality of 7/10. Treatment “Unexplained Loss”: Situation: Consider that soil quality is measurable on a scale ranging from 1 (bad quality) to 10 (excellent quality). In a given French area, soil quality is estimated at 4/10. Project: A sustainable investment program is under consideration and its purpose is to reach a quality of 7/10, corresponding to the soil quality 10 years ago. Treatment “Man Caused Loss”: Situation: Consider that soil quality is measurable on a scale ranging from 1 (bad quality) to 10 (excellent quality). In a given French area, soil quality is estimated at 4/10. One of the major reasons for this mediocre quality is the water proofing of soils due to concreting which increases the flooding risks. Project: A sustainable investment program is under consideration and its purpose is to reach a quality of 7/10, corresponding to the soil quality 10 years ago. Treatment “Nature Caused Loss” Situation: Consider that soil quality is measurable on a scale ranging from 1 (bad quality) to 10 (excellent quality). In a given French area, soil quality is estimated at 4/10. One of the major reasons for this mediocre quality is natural erosion which is the reduction of the superficial layer of soil caused by wind and rain. Project: A sustainable investment program is under consideration and its purpose is to reach a quality of 7/10, corresponding to the soil quality 10 years ago. 6 LISAH – ECO&SOL 9 The only other variation not reported above is the replacement of the words ‘improvement’ and ‘improve’ by the words respectively ‘restoration’ and ‘restore’ (three occurrences) from the treatment ‘Gain’ to the other experimental treatments. In line with the strategy suggested by Bulte et al. (2005), each respondent was presented with a randomly drawn bid from the set (€ 10, 20, 30, 40, where € 1 ≈ US$ 1.3) in order to evaluate his/her WTP for the considered program. These amounts have been previously discussed with experts in order to be meaningful for respondents and reflect plausible real world choices 7. We also followed the experimental procedure in Bulte et al. (2005) related to a hypothetical scenario presented with a cheap talk (treatment called ‘Hypothetical/Cheap Talk’ in their paper). We finally collected some usual socio-demographic variables such as gender, age, number of children, income, education level and ownership of undeveloped land. Key sociodemographic data on respondents are provided in annex 2. No reminder has been sent, to avoid introducing a bias. We admit that sending reminders is a standard practice. Our unusual procedure may have lowered the number of respondents compared to other studies, but we were strongly interested by the response rate drawn from early respondents without any reminder. Indeed, late respondents can shape results and have characteristics that differ from early respondents8. 4. Results and discussion In order to test our hypotheses, we consider three main variables in the data for each treatment: the response rate, the stated interest in the soil quality improvement program (on a Likert scale from 1=no interest, to 7=high interest), and the stated WTP for this program. The former is supposed to reveal the aggregated interest of respondents in the questions asked. Between April and May 2010, we received 108 responses. Due to a poor update of the file and a relatively high turnover in the region surveyed, 85 letters were returned by postal services, stipulating that the person targeted does not live at the stipulated address at the delivery time. The corrected overall response rate reaches 6.45%. This low response rate can raise concern regarding the representativeness of the sample. Nevertheless, given the exploratory nature of 7 For instance, we used the costs of CAP per citizen and per year as a reference to select realistic amounts. 8 The interested reader can find an extensive discussion regarding this point in Dalecki et al. (1993) in the context of contingent valuation applied to environmental resources. Given that our objective is not the aggregation of WTP for the whole population, we decided not to use reminders. 10 the survey and the current practice in experimental economics and psychology (e.g., nonrandom samples, small samples), we argue that these potential biases do not jeopardize the validity of the obtained insights. Indeed, the issues addressed do not depend on representativeness, but on whether small variations about past states and causes affect respondents’ reactions in comparable samples. Table 1 provides key statistics for the four experimental treatments. Table 1. Key-statistics Regarding each Treatment Treatment Number of responses Response rate (%) Gain (G) Unexplained Loss (UL) Nature Caused Loss (NC) Man Caused Loss (MC) Total 15 33 32 28 108 3.52 7.99 7.71 6.65 6.45 Interest in program’s implementation 5.36 5.61 5.19 6.04 5.56 WTP for the program (€) 14 13.44 17.10 15.36 15.09 We first compare the participation rates under different treatments. Table 2 presents the onetailed z-test for the comparison of two proportions from independent samples. For sake of simplicity, we grouped some experimental treatments under the same label as follows: - Loss = Unexplained Loss + Man Caused Loss + Nature Caused Loss - Explained Loss = Man-caused Loss + Nature-caused Loss For sake of exposition, we labeled ‘loss’ what is actually a ‘restoration of a previous loss’. We invariably presented an environmental improvement of the exact same extent across experimental treatments. Table 2. One-tailed Z-test for the Comparison of Two Proportions from Independent Samples: response rate Hypothesis tested Group X Group Y H1 Loss Gain H2 Explained Loss Unexplained Loss H3 Man-caused Loss Value Value Difference z-value Pr(Z>z) Significant X Y X – Y (%) difference? (%) (%) 7.44 3.52 3.92 2.8482 0.0022 YES*** 7.18 7.99 -0.81 -0.5151 0.6968 NO Nature-caused 6.65 Loss 7.71 -1.06 -0.5937 0.7236 NO *: significant at the 10% level - ** : significant at the 5% level - ***: significant at the 1% level 11 We also performed the classical Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney nonparametric test for the comparison of means regarding stated interest for the proposed program. The results are presented in Table 3. Table 3. Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney nonparametric test for the comparison of two means: stated interest in program’s implementation Hypothesis tested Group X Group Y M1: mean M2: mean p-value stated interest stated interest for X for Y 5.36 5.59 0.7075 Significant difference? H1 Gain Loss H2 Unexplained Loss Explained Loss 5.61 5.58 0.5235 NO H3 Man-caused Loss Nature-caused Loss 6.04 5.19 0.0795 YES* NO *: significant at the 10% level - ** : significant at the 5% level - ***: significant at the 1% level In terms of response rates, there is a significant difference between questionnaires presenting the improvement as a net gain and questionnaires presenting the improvement as a compensation of a previous loss. More precisely, people responded significantly more to lossrelated questionnaires than to gain-related questionnaires (H1). In terms of stated interest for suggested programs, the stated interest for compensating a loss is higher than the stated interest for acquiring a gain of the same extent, but this difference is not statistically significant. Regarding H2, there is no significant difference in terms of response rate and stated interest when a cause is stipulated compared to situations where no cause is indicated. Moreover, response rates do not significantly differ among loss-related questionnaires when causes vary. Interestingly, respondents expressed a higher interest for suggested program when the loss is man-caused compared to a scenario where the loss is nature-caused (significant at the 10% level) (H3). Regarding soil protection, our results can indicate that people are more sensitive to the nature of the cause (man-caused versus nature-caused) than to the presence of a cause per se (compared to a situation without a stipulated cause). Nevertheless, our findings do not allow to reach a clear cut conclusion. We finally performed the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney nonparametric test for the comparison of mean WTP. The results are presented in Table 4. 12 Table 4. Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney nonparametric test for the comparison of two means: stated WTP for the program Hypothesis tested Group X Group Y M1: mean M2: mean stated WTP stated WTP for X for Y 14.00 15.27 H1 Gain Loss H2 Unexplained Loss Explained Loss 13.44 H3 Man-caused Loss Nature-caused Loss 15.36 p-value Significant difference ? 0.6627 NO 16.27 0.2700 NO 17.10 0.5697 NO *: significant at the 10% level - ** : significant at the 5% level - ***: significant at the 1% level The mean stated WTP for an improvement framed as a restoration of a previous loss is higher than the mean stated WTP for the same improvement framed as a gain. The WTP for the compensation of a loss is higher when a cause is explicated rather than without any cause. Lastly, the WTP for compensating a man-caused loss is lower when compared with the WTP for compensating a nature-caused loss. Nevertheless, these three results are not statistically significant. Given the absence of an unified theory and the exploratory nature of our results, the following interpretations are tentative and must be considered with caution. We contend that the response to our study can be considered, to some extent, as a contribution to an environmentally related public good – namely research in social sciences related to soil protection. Indeed, the public benefits of contributing by filling the questionnaire were emphasized in the accompanying letter as we stipulated some essential soil-related ecosystem services. Considering this, our first major result is that individuals seem9 to be more motivated to respond when the study is concerning the restoration of a previous environmental loss than an environmental improvement of the same net extent. This exploratory study of the combining effect of two cognitive biases suggests a second major and counter-intuitive finding: an individual’s revealed or stated interest in the program’s implementation is not necessarily a good predictor of its own WTP for it. Interestingly, respondents expressed a higher interest but a lower WTP to compensate mancaused losses when compared to nature-caused losses. In short, interest could reveal to what extent respondents support the need of doing something while WTP reveals to what extent 9 Though statistically significant, we consider it as a tentative result because of the relatively small sample. 13 they attribute to themselves responsibility of the situation and are willing to pay to solve it. This finding might be related to the attribution theory stipulating that people generally attribute the responsibility of problem or failure to external factors, thus placing the responsibility of doing something into others’ hands. This could explain both the fact that their WTP is lower in case of man-caused losses as respondents do not feel themselves responsible for, whereas interest in implementing the plan is higher due to the precise identification of other human beings as the external cause. This could also be partly explained by a concern for equity. In that regard, the cause attribution is very important10. The result that respondents are less willing to pay for man-caused degradation rather than for nature-caused degradation is not consistent with Bulte et al. (2005). The higher stated interest in program’s implementation in the ‘man-caused’ treatment is however consistent with their findings. A plausible explanation relies on the fact that their study is based on a real public good, whereas our study is based on a particular good, with several private dimensions, but encompassing some public good characteristics (ecosystem services provided by soils such as carbon and biodiversity sink or water filtration). Another difference is a supposed ‘time effect’. We clearly stipulated in the survey a previous good state of the environment that was explicitly ten years ago11. In addition, the restoration program was intended to reach accomplishment by year 2015, almost six years ahead from the survey. Bulte et al. (2005) stipulated neither a date for the previous state nor a date for the restoration. According to Ostrom (1990), the ability to observe the results of (your) efforts can be a factor leading to collective action. This may as well have impacted the credibility of the program and hence respondents’ statements of their WTP for it along with their stated interest in it. Moreover, soil degradation frequently occurs through small and cumulative losses over a long horizon time. Considering the mitigating effect of varying the causes of the degradation on the loss aversion bias, this experiment suggests that the absence of a cause can cancel loss aversion, even reverse it when we look at the WTP. The nature of the cause has a strong effect as well, as we observe a higher interest in program’s implementation when restoring man-caused losses and 10 An alternative explanation is free riding of respondents by admitting the need of doing something but leaving the burden on others. 11 Indeed, it seems intuitively convincing that loss aversion is likely to decline over time. 14 a lower interest when the program is aimed at restoring nature-caused losses when both are compared to the interest in a program framed as providing a gain. This finding reinforces the recommendation of behavioral economists to pay attention to loss aversion. We suggest giving almost the same level of importance to the existence and the nature of the cause of the loss when considering such issues. Let us finally consider our results from a fundraiser point of view. The strategy is to maximize the overall WTP for an environmental improvement, which can here be consider as an overall willingness-to-donate (WTD), while minimizing the cost of fundraising, which can be considered at first glance as proportional to the number of people interviewed. Below, we provide a table summarizing these two variables. Table 5. Fund raised trough each treatment Experimental Overall WTD Number of people Average donation Treatment (euros) interviewed (euros/person) Gain (G) 210 426 0.49 Unexplained Loss (UL) 430 413 1.04 Nature Caused Loss (NC) Man Caused Loss (MC) 530 415 1.28 430 421 1.02 Total 1580 1675 0.94 When the environmental improvement is framed as the restoration of a loss, the overall WTD is doubled when compared to the ‘net gain’ framing. Introducing a human cause for this previous loss has virtually an effect neither on the overall WTD nor on the efficiency of fundraising. Additionally, fundraising is almost 30% more efficient when the improvement is framed as the restoration of nature-caused loss, when compared to an unexplained loss or a man-caused loss. However we do not have any information on non-respondent and therefore we cannot claim that their WTD is zero, thus making these average WTD per interviewee inconclusive. For this reason, any test of significance of differences between these values would be irrelevant. 15 5. Conclusion Using a quasi-experimental survey over a random sample of a small French region on efforts to improve soil quality, we found support for the hypothesis that past states affect respondents’ interest whereas results of specifying alternative causes on WTP are inconclusive. More generally, loss aversion is mitigated by the presence and the nature of the causes of the loss. As mentioned earlier these mixed results can be due to the status of soil compared to other environmental media such as endangered species or water. They are also certainly partly due to the small size of our experimental sample. Verifying whether and to which extent loss aversion effects are limited by public good properties and time constitutes a challenging question. Interestingly, our results show that framing policies adequately can significantly increase support among citizens and potential contributors. For instance, policies aiming at correcting environmental problems framed as losses with well-identified causes are more likely to be supported, ceteris paribus. These small and low-cost interventions, especially at stages where just preliminary policy drafts are circulating can help to find the expected support, or at least decrease reluctance. These improvements can be used in various situations, ranging from environmental public policy to fundraising by a NGO. Finally, potential discrepancies between one’s stated interest in an environmental program’s implementation and one’s WTP for it is of a major interest for environmental valuation studies. These researches often provide direct information on project feasibility and sustainability. The implementation of environmental projects depends on the quality of the WTP data. Consequently, given the consequences, great attention must be devoted to the gathering of such information. This paper suggests paying attention to the presence and to the nature of the cause of the environmental degradation in valuation studies. References Babcock, L.; Wang, X.; Loewenstein, GF., 1996, Choosing the Wrong Pond: Social Comparisons in Negotiations that Reflect a Self-Serving Bias, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 111: 1-19. Babcock, L.; Loewenstein, G., 1997, Explaining Bargaining Impasse: The Role of SelfServing Biases, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11: 109 - 126. 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Walker, ME.; Morera, O.F.; Vining, J.; Orland, B., 1999, Disparate WTA–WTP Disparities: the Influence of Human versus Natural Causes, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12: 219–232. 18 Figure 1 : Effect of varying causes on the perceived values of an environmental improvement VALUE G VG LOSS GAIN VUL VNC UL VMC NC MC same improvement same improvement G: Improvement framed as a net Gain UL: Improvement framed as the restoration of a previous Unexplained Loss NC: Improvement framed as the restoration of a previous Nature-Caused loss MC: Improvement framed as the restoration of a previous Man-Caused loss Reference point when the improvement is framed as a net gain Reference point when the improvement is framed as the restoration of a loss 19 Annex 1a: ‘Gain treatment’ translated questionnaire (G) QUESTIONNAIRE This survey analyses the acceptability of environmental initiatives targeted at improving the state of soils. The following scenario describes a hypothetical realistic situation. There are no right or wrong answers : we are only interested in your opinion! SITUATION: Consider that soil quality is measurable on a scale ranging from 1 (bad quality) to 10 (excellent quality). In a given French area, soil quality is estimated at 4/10. PROJECT : A sustainable investment program is under consideration and its purpose is to reach a quality of 7/10. QUESTION 1 : The overall cost being reasonable, which importance to you attach to the implementation of this plan? (circle the corresponding number) no importance to the 1 implementation of the plan 2 3 4 undecided 5 6 7 high importance to the implementation of the plan IMPLEMENTATION : A bureau for soil sustainable management wishes to implement this plan in order to improve soil quality by 2015. However such measures have a cost. In the following question, we ask whether you accept to pay a certain amount to support this initiative. Usually interviewees declare more than what they were actually ready to pay. While answering the next question, think about your actual willingness to pay this amount for soil improvement, knowing that this money won’t be available for other uses anymore. QUESTION 2 : Are you willing to pay a unique amount (once for all) of X12 € in order to support soil improvement? Yes No Please indicate the following information by filling the blank or ticking the corresponding box: 1. Interviewee’s age : ___ years old 4. Number of people in your household (you included) : ____ 2. Interviewee’s sex : Male or Female 5. Are there children under 16? Yes No 3. Member of an environmental NGO 6. Study level : before Bac13 or Bac + ___years 4. Are you a farmer? Yes No 8. Do you own undeveloped land? Yes No Please indicate the monthly level of aggregated resources for all the individuals in your household: 1.Less than 2.Between 1000 and 3.Between 1500 and 4.Between 2000 and 5.More than 1000€/month 1500 €/month 2000 €/month 3000 €/month 3000€/month We would like to remind you that this survey is anonymous and that each question matters. Thanks for your contribution ! 12 X is a randomly drawn bid from the set (10, 20, 30, 40) 13 ‘Bac’ is the standard abbreviation for ‘Baccalaureate’, a French nation-wide exam occurring at the end of high school. A regular student is 18 years old when passing the exam. 20 Annex 1b: ‘Unexplained loss treatment’ translated questionnaire (UL) QUESTIONNAIRE This survey analyses the acceptability of environmental initiatives targeted at improving the state of soils. The following scenario describes a hypothetical realistic situation. There are no right or wrong answers : we are only interested in your opinion! SITUATION: Consider that soil quality is measurable on a scale ranging from 1 (bad quality) to 10 (excellent quality). In a given French area, soil quality is estimated at 4/10. PROJECT : A sustainable investment program is under consideration and its purpose is to reach a quality of 7/10, corresponding to the soil quality 10 years ago. QUESTION 1 : The overall cost being reasonable, which importance to you attach to the implementation of this plan? (circle the corresponding number) no importance to the 1 implementation of the plan 2 3 4 undecided 5 6 7 high importance to the implementation of the plan IMPLEMENTATION : A bureau for soil sustainable management wishes to implement this plan in order to restore soil quality by 2015. However such measures have a cost. In the following question, we ask whether you accept to pay a certain amount to support this initiative. Usually interviewees declare more than what they were actually ready to pay. While answering the next question, think about your actual willingness to pay this amount for soil restoration, knowing that this money won’t be available for other uses anymore. QUESTION 2 : Are you willing to pay a unique amount (once for all) of X € in order to support soil restoration ? Yes No Please indicate the following information by filling the blank or ticking the corresponding box: 1. Interviewee’s age : ___ years old 4. Number of people in your household (you included) : ____ 2. Interviewee’s sex : Male or Female 5. Are there children under 16? Yes No 3. Member of an environmental NGO 6. Study level : before Bac or Bac + ___years 4. Are you a farmer? Yes No 8. Do you own undeveloped land? Yes No Please indicate the monthly level of the aggregated resources of all the individuals in your household: 1. Less than 2. Between 1000 and 3. Between 1500 and 4. Between 2000 5. More than 1000€/month 1500 €/month 2000 €/mois and 3000 €/mois 3000€/mois We would like to remind you that this survey is anonymous and that each question matters. Thanks for your contribution ! 21 Annex 1c: ‘Nature-Caused loss treatment’ translated questionnaire (NC) QUESTIONNAIRE This survey analyses the acceptability of environmental initiatives targeted at improving the state of soils. The following scenario describes a hypothetical realistic situation. There are no right or wrong answers : we are only interested in your opinion! SITUATION: Consider that soil quality is measurable on a scale ranging from 1 (bad quality) to 10 (excellent quality). In a given French area, soil quality is estimated at 4/10. One of the major reasons for this mediocre quality is natural erosion which is the reduction of the superficial layer of soil caused by wind and rain. PROJECT : A sustainable investment program is under consideration and its purpose is to reach a quality of 7/10, corresponding to the soil quality 10 years ago. QUESTION 1 : The overall cost being reasonable, which importance to you attach to the implementation of this plan? (circle the corresponding number) no importance to the 1 implementation of the plan 2 3 4 undecided 5 6 7 high importance to the implementation of the plan IMPLEMENTATION : A bureau for soil sustainable management wishes to implement this plan in order to restore soil quality by 2015. However such measures have a cost. In the following question, we ask whether you accept to pay a certain amount to support this initiative. Usually interviewees declare more than what they were actually ready to pay. While answering the next question, think about your actual willingness to pay this amount for soil restoration, knowing that this money won’t be available for other uses anymore. QUESTION 2 : Are you willing to pay a unique amount (once for all) of X € in order to support soil restoration ? Yes No Please indicate the following information by filling the blank or ticking the corresponding box: 1. Interviewee’s age : ___ years old 4. Number of people in your household (you included) : ____ 2. Interviewee’s sex : Male or Female 5. Are there children under 16? Yes No 3. Member of an environmental NGO 6. Study level : before Bac or Bac + ___years 4. Are you a farmer? Yes No 8. Do you own undeveloped land? Yes No Please indicate the monthly level of the aggregated resources of all the individuals in your household: 1.Less than 2.Between 1000 and 3.Between 1500 and 4.Between 2000 and 5.More than 1000€/month 1500 €/month 2000 €/month 3000 €/month 3000€/month We would like to remind you that this survey is anonymous and that each question matters. Thanks for your contribution ! 22 Annex 1d: ‘Man-Caused loss treatment’ translated questionnaire (MC) QUESTIONNAIRE This survey analyses the acceptability of environmental initiatives targeted at improving the state of soils. The following scenario describes a hypothetical realistic situation. There are no right or wrong answers : we are only interested in your opinion! SITUATION: Consider that soil quality is measurable on a scale ranging from 1 (bad quality) to 10 (excellent quality). In a given French area, soil quality is estimated at 4/10. One of the major reasons for this mediocre quality is the water proofing of soils due to concreting which increases the flooding risks. PROJECT : A sustainable investment program is under consideration and its purpose is to reach a quality of 7/10, corresponding to the soil quality 10 years ago. QUESTION 1 : The overall cost being reasonable, which importance to you attach to the implementation of this plan? (circle the corresponding number) no importance to the 1 implementation of the plan 2 3 4 undecided 5 6 7 high importance to the implementation of the plan IMPLEMENTATION : A bureau for soil sustainable management wishes to implement this plan in order to restore soil quality by 2015. However such measures have a cost. In the following question, we ask whether you accept to pay a certain amount to support this initiative. Usually interviewees declare more than what they were actually ready to pay. While answering the next question, think about your actual willingness to pay this amount for soil restoration, knowing that this money won’t be available for other uses anymore. QUESTION 2 : Are you willing to pay a unique amount (once for all) of X € in order to support soil restoration ? Yes No Please indicate the following information by filling the blank or ticking the corresponding box: 1. Interviewee’s age : ___ years old 4. Number of people in your household (you included) : ____ 2. Interviewee’s sex : Male or Female 5. Are there children under 16? Yes No 3. Member of an environmental NGO 6. Study level : before Bac or Bac + ___years 4. Are you a farmer? Yes No 8. Do you own undeveloped land? Yes No Please indicate the monthly level of the aggregated resources of all the individuals in your household: 1.Less than 2.Between 1000 and 3.Between 1500 and 4.Between 2000 and 5.More than 1000€/month 1500 €/month 2000 €/month 3000 €/month 3000€/month We would like to remind you that this survey is anonymous and that each question matters. Thanks for your contribution ! 23 Annex 1e: accompanying letter (identical across treatments) Montpellier, March 29th, 2010 Object : Soil quality related survey Dear Sir or Madam, In relation to a research project carried by the Laboratoire Montpelliérain d’Economie Theorique et Appliquée (LAMETA), we submit you a short survey (around 3 minutes) concerning soil quality. Soil, like air or water, is an essential environmental component. It plays a major role in maintaining biodiversity and it provides numerous services such as water filtration and agricultural production medium. We can assure you of the strict confidentiality of responses. Furthermore, if you wish we can provide you with the aggregated results of this survey14. In order to respect our deadline, we would be grateful to you if you return the questionnaire by April 9th, 2010, with the prepaid and pre-labelled return envelope. Your participation is very important to us and we thank you in advance for it. For any question or remark, please contact us. Yours faithfully, In charge of the study Gilles Grolleau / Antoine Beretti LAMETA, UMR 1135, SupAgro 2, Place Pierre Viala, Bât. 26, 34060 Montpellier Cedex 1, France E-mails : [email protected] / [email protected] Phone : 04.99.61.28.81 – Fax : 04.67.63.54.09 14 In that regard, please indicate your email adress at the back of the questionnaire if you want to receive the results of the study. 24 Annex 2. Key socio-demographic data on respondents according to the treatment Name Treatment G Gain (no cause) Unexplained Loss Man-Caused loss Nature-Caused loss UL MC NC Women/men Age Ratio (%) (years) Education level (years) Child under 16 Ownership of Number Household Undeveloped of income land responses (category) (%) (N=108) 38.5 3.85 15 Total (N= 1675) 23.08 57.36 2.23 0.57 426 40.63 56.72 1.66 0.29 27.3 2.93 33 413 46.43 52.64 1.46 0.29 14.3 3.39 28 421 34.38 54.84 1.35 0.28 46.9 3.59 32 415 25 Immediate versus future implementation of a soil conservation tax: does it matter? Gilles Grolleau Supagro, UMR 1135 LAMETA, F-34060 Montpellier Burgundy School of Business – LESSAC, F-21000 Dijon [email protected] Naoufel Mzoughi (Corresponding author) INRA, UR 767 Ecodéveloppement, F-84914 Avignon [email protected] Abstract: A recent psychological literature argues that people are more likely to make “should” choices rather than “want” choices when the decision’s implementation is scheduled in the future. We investigate this psychological concern in the case of a soil conservation tax. Surveying both a convenience and randomly-selected samples of individuals in Montpellier (Southern France), we test whether the suggestion of a future implementation of a soil conservation tax increases public support, compared to an “as-soon-as-possible” implementation. Our results show that future implementation does not matter, since the support of the considered tax is similar in both samples, regardless of the time perspective of its implementation. Key-words: future implementation, soil conservation, taxes, want/should conflict. JEL codes: C90, Q28. Immediate versus future implementation of a soil conservation tax: does it matter? 1. Introductive remarks Protecting the environment frequently involves tensions and tradeoffs between immediate (private) benefits and delayed (collective) ones. Individuals frequently agree they should adopt an environmentally friendly behavior but do not want to do it immediately because of monetary, behavioral, or some other kind of (present) costs. For instance, using public transportations rather than personal cars is frequently perceived as a “should” choice, but it also means giving up convenience, making many people unwilling to do it immediately. This intra-subjective tension between the immediate and future selves has been referred to as a “want/should” conflict (Bazerman et al., 1998; Milkman et al., 2008, 2009). A relatively recent and limited literature (e.g., Khan et al., 2005; Rogers and Bazerman, 2006 and references therein) provides theoretical arguments and empirical evidence supporting that individuals tend to think that their future selves will behave more virtuously (by making should choices) than their present selves (by making want choices). For instance, using four survey experiments about a variety of domains (e.g., donations, physical exercise, money saving), Rogers and Bazerman (2006) found empirical evidence to the future lock-in effect, since individuals across the considered domains were significantly more likely to choose and support a should-choice when its implementation is scheduled in the distant future, compared to near future. The literature on intrapersonal conflict in decision making devotes a lot of attention to commitment devices, frequently illustrated by the metaphor of Odysseus tying himself to the mast of his ships in order not to succumb to the Sirens (Ashraf et al., 2006). In short, commitment devices constrain individuals from submitting themselves to temptations of the future want self. Several scholars showed that situational factors can influence should choices, independently of commitment devices (e.g., Ariely and Wertenbroch, 2002; Ashraf et al., 2006; Bazerman and Rogers, 2008). Among these contextual factors, temporal distance from an event is a convincing candidate. Given that perceptions of the near and distant future are different, modifying the temporal distance between a decision and the time its consequences are felt can increase should choices. The Construal Level Theory (Liberman and Trope, 1998) argues that the same entity can be construed at different levels of abstraction. It also suggests that varying the temporal distance from an event can activate these different construal levels. Events in the distant future are more likely to be construed at a high level (abstract, schematic, purpose focused qualities) while events in the near future are more likely to be construed at a low level (detailed, concrete and specific qualities) (Trope and Liberman, 2000; Kivetz and Tyler, 2007; Bazerman and Rogers, 2008). 2 This note extends the above-mentioned literature to the environmental realm. Given that environmentally friendly decisions frequently reflect should choices, which are rather abstract, purpose-focused and superordinate, they are more attractive when construed at a higher level. In short, delayed or future implementation of a “should” decision can nudge people and increase their support for the considered decision compared to a situation where the implementation is immediate. Hence, using survey data, we explore whether the support of an environmental policy, namely a soil conservation tax, is influenced or not by the temporal focus of its implementation. In other words, we examine whether public support of such a tax increases or not when a future implementation is suggested, compared to an “as-soon-as-possible” implementation. Moreover, while the few available empirical studies have been conducted in the United States, we survey individuals in a French metropolitan area, namely Montpellier (Southern France). Furthermore, we consider two samples of individuals: a convenience one and a random one. The remainder of this note is organized as follows. Section 2 presents the empirical strategy and main results. Section 3 provides some policy implications and concludes. 2. Immediate versus future implementation of a soil conservation tax: a quasi-experimental survey 2.1. Data and methods In order to empirically investigate whether time implementation perspectives matter, we designed a short questionnaire regarding willingness to support a soil conservation tax which would be implemented to ensure a soil sustainable management program. The survey was conducted in Montpellier (Southern France) in June and September 2012. We chose this region because of its commitment to environmental issues. For instance, Montpellier received in 2011 the awards of being both the French and European capital of biodiversity. Moreover, this region suffered from dryness and flooding events during the last few years, partly due to relatively poor soil quality and a high level of concreting. These events received wide news coverage, especially in local media, likely to raise awareness among inhabitants.1 We surveyed two samples of individuals: the first sample is a convenience one, composed of 58 students reaching an economics course.2 The second one is composed of 185 randomly selected people met at a popular square of the city. Some descriptive statistics about our samples are provided in Table 1. Except for gender distribution, the two samples 1 See, for example, http://www.herault-tribune.com/articles/6647/languedoc-roussillon-la-vitrine-de-vos-talents/ and http://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2009/03/28/inventories-les-sols-francais-sont-dans-un-etat-mediocremais-pas-catastrophique_1173728_3244.html, accessed on March 8, 2013. 2 An increasing number of studies in the behavioral economics literature use convenience samples and argue that such a choice does not skew results. For instance, investigating the importance of relative standings, Grolleau et al (2012) show that convenience and random samples yield very similar findings. 3 are significantly different. Respondents in the convenience sample are younger and earn less than randomly-selected individuals. Before conducting the ultimate survey, we performed a pre-test of the questionnaire among a group of friends, colleagues, and family members. We gathered information regarding the understanding of soil quality dynamics, relevance of the proposed scenarios and so on. This step allowed us to improve the understanding and attractiveness of the questionnaire. Table 1: Some characteristics of our samples Whole population (N=243) Random (N=185) Convenience (N=58) Wilcoxon test Mean age 33 years 37 years 22 years *** Men 45% 44% 48% ns Gender Women 55% 56% 52% ns <500€ 37% 29% 65% *** Between 500 and 1000€ 28% 28% 28% ns Income (/month) Between 1000 and 1500€ 17% 19% 7% ** More than 1500€ 18% 24% 0% *** The Wilcoxon test compares the random and convenience samples. (**) and (***) stand for parameter significance at the 5 and 1 percent level, respectively. (ns) stands for not significant. We considered two treatments for each sample: one where the tax would be implemented as soon as possible (denoted Present) and another one where the tax would be implemented after two years (denoted Future). Our quasi-experimental methodology relies on the two following principles: (1) we described exactly the same environmental improvement and tax across treatments, and (2) changed as few words as possible between treatments. As a consequence, if the differences in time implementation have an impact on support, we can infer that deeper changes in the framing could have even greater impacts on behavior. After describing briefly the importance of safeguarding soil quality by emphasizing the importance of soil services to human beings (a full version of the questionnaire is available in Appendix 1), the respondents were asked to answer the following question: “In order to promote sustainable management of soils, suppose that public authorities created a tax of 40€/person/year. This tax would be voted the next month and go into effect as soon as possible [in 2 years]. In other words, you would start paying this tax as soon as possible after passing [after two years in the second treatment]. Choose the level which corresponds to your support of this measure, on a scale from 1 (no support at all) to 9 (strongly support).” The level of the tax policy has been discussed with experts of the European Common Agricultural Policy to reflect a realistic amount. We also followed the experimental procedure in Bulte et al. (2005) related to a hypothetical scenario presented with a cheap talk to avoid an overstatement regarding the support of the tax policy. 4 2.2. Results The main results are reported in Table 2. We report the mean level of responses to the abovementioned question by type of sample and treatment. We also present results by gender. Table 2: Mean response by type of sample and treatment Random sample (N=185) Convenience Sample (N=58) Present Future Wilcoxon Present Future Wilcoxon (N=92) (N=93) test (N=28) (N=30) test Mean response 4.63 4.74 ns 4.85 4.73 ns Mean response (men only) 4.66 4.34 ns 5.23 4.73 ns Mean response (women only) 4.60 5.12 ns 4.53 4.73 ns The Wilcoxon test compares responses across the two treatments. (ns) stands for not significant. Surprisingly, the results suggest that the hypothetical choice by public authorities of an immediate versus future implementation of a soil conservation tax does not matter. In the two samples, there is no significant difference between the as-soon-as-possible and future implementation of the tax. Moreover, no gender effect has been detected between the two treatments.3 These results are only tentative and should not be over-interpreted. However, these findings raise questions about the applicability of future lock-in in various contexts. Several factors can explain why our results differ from those obtained by other scholars (e.g., Rogers and Bazerman, 2008). For instance, the environmental issue selected (soil versus fossil-fuel consumption, for example) or the time frame can play a role in explaining individuals’ responses. People may feel more concerned at the individual level by fossil fuel consumption than by soil issues, especially at a short term horizon. In addition, our sample includes French inhabitants and may suggest cross-cultural differences regarding the effect of time framing. Moreover, the environmental policy considered in this paper, taxation, may have limited the relevance of future implementation, compared to an immediate one. In other words, individuals may have not reported significantly different answers not only because they are insensitive to time perspectives but also because they are reluctant to pay additional taxes. The context of our study, characterized by a huge economic crisis since the year 2008 may have also reinforced such findings. 3. Policy implications and conclusion Using a quasi-experimental survey among a sample of French individuals in the Southern city Montpellier, we did not find empirical evidence for an effect of time framing (present versus future) 3 Our data do not allow us to perform a more rigorous econometric analysis, mainly due to the sample size and potential omitted variables bias. Nevertheless, we tested a logistic model of the effect of the treatment on the level of tax support, controlling for age, gender, income, and sample type. The results (not reported) show that the level of responses is not influenced by the suggested treatment, neither control variables. In other words, men and women surveyed in both samples behave the same with regards to their support of a soil conservation tax, regardless of their age and monthly income. 5 on the support of the implementation of a soil conservation tax. Our findings are different from the results of previous studies (e.g., Rogers and Bazerman, 2008). Hence, based on our survey results, one may conclude that policy-makers do not need to (strategically) use time perspectives in order to increase individuals’ willingness to support an environmental tax. The unwillingness of individuals to pay taxes may be related to other factors. It is also possible that the nature of the instrument (i.e., an additional tax) itself in a context of economic recession has cancelled the effect of time framing. So, a natural extension has to consider the possible effect of time framing on the support of various instruments of environmental policy, such as command-and-control instruments. It would be also interesting to investigate the effect of time framing when the considered measure does not apply to the surveyed individuals (e.g., voters) but other entities (e.g., companies). A more thorough analysis is needed by comparing different time frames in various contexts and considering other environmental policies. The relevance of future implementation remains an under-researched area and requires more examination to usefully inform decision-makers. In other words, we believe that time framing can be a crucial dimension to nudge people in socially desirable directions and must not be neglected. Similarly, considering different environmental issues, other than soil conservation, may reveal different behavioral patterns. Indeed, some environmental issues are closer to people than others and this feature can affect their reactions to time framing. In short, rather than providing clear cut conclusions, our contribution must be considered as an additional stone calling for more academic attention. Robust findings in this area can lead to practical and low-cost tips that can help policymakers to gain support for the policy or at least decrease reluctance. References Ariely, D., Wertenbroch, K. 2002. Procrastination, deadlines, and Performance: Self-control by Precommitment. Psychological Science 13 (3): 219-224. Ashraf, N., Karlan, D., Yin, W. 2006. Tying Odysseus to the mast: Evidence from a commitment savings product in the Philippines. Quarterly Journal of Economics 121 (2): 635-672. Bazerman, M.H., Tenbrunsel, A.E., Wade-Benzoni, K. 1998. Negotiating with yourself and losing: Making decisions with competing internal preferences. Academy of Management Review 23 (2): 225-241. Bulte, E., Gerking, S., List, J.A., de Zeeuw, A. 2005. The effect of varying the causes of environmental problems on stated WTP values: Evidence from a field study. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 49 (2): 330-342. Grolleau, G., Mzoughi, N., Saïd, S. 2012. Do you believe that others are more positional than you? Results from an empirical survey on positional concerns in France. Journal of Socio-Economics 41 (1): 48-54. 6 Khan, U., Dhar, R., Wertenbroch, K. 2005. A behavioral decision theory perspective on hedonic and utilitarian choice. In Ratneshwar, S., Mick, D.G. (Eds.), Inside consumption: Frontiers of research on consumer motives, goals, and desires. London: Routledge: 144-165. Kivetz, Y., Tyler, TR. 2007. Tomorrow I’ll be me: The effect of time perspective on the activation of idealistic versus pragmatic selves. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 102 (2): 193-211. Liberman, N., Trope, Y. 1998. The role of feasibility and desirability considerations in near and distant future decisions: A test of temporal construal theory. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 75 (1): 5-18. Milkman, K.L., Rogers, T., Bazerman, M.H. 2008. Harnessing our inner angels and demons: What we have learned about want/should conflicts and how that knowledge can help us reduce short-sighted decision making. Perspectives on Psychological Science 3 (4): 324-338. Milkman, K.L., Rogers, T., Bazerman, M.H. 2009. I’ll have the ice cream soon and the vegetables later: A study of online grocery purchases and order lead time. Marketing Letters 21 (1): 17-35. Rogers, T., Bazerman, M.H. 2008. Future lock-in: Future implementation increases selection of ‘should’ choices. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 106 (1): 1-20. Trope, Y., Liberman, N. 2000. Temporal construal and time-dependent changes in preference. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 79 (6): 876-889. 7 Appendix 1: Survey instrument (translated from French) Changes among treatments (Present versus Future) are mentioned in bold. Anonymous survey (Please, answer the following questions as much precisely as possible. There is no right or wrong answer. Only your opinion matters.) Soils, just like air and water, are an important environmental component. They play an important role in maintaining biodiversity and provide numerous useful services to society, such as water refining or carbon storage. In order to encourage a sustainable management of soils, notably through erosion and concreting control, and increase soil organic material, public authorities are considering the implementation of several measures. Nevertheless, such measures are costly. Generally, surveyed people indicate more than what they are effectively willing to pay. When answering the question below, try to think if you would effectively pay the suggested amount, knowing that this money will not be available for other uses. A. In order to promote sustainable management of soils, suppose that public authorities created a tax of 40€/person/year. This tax would be voted the next month and go into effect as soon as possible [in 2 years]. In other words, you would start paying this tax as soon as possible after passing [after two years]. Choose the level which corresponds to your support of this measure, on a scale from 1 (no support at all) to 9 (strongly support). 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 No support at all 9 Strongly support B. Give the answers corresponding to your situation: 1. Age : _____ years 2. Gender : Man Woman 3. Monthly net income: a) Less than 500€ b) Between 500 € and 1000 € c) Between 1000 € and 1500 € d) More than 1500 € C. Comments: __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ Thanks for your participation 8 An instrument that could turn crowding-out into crowding-in Antoine Beretti, Charles Figuièresyand Gilles Grolleauz February 14, 2013 5 Abstract Using a simple decision-theoretic approach, we formalize how agents with different kinds of intrinsic motivations react to the introduction of monetary incentives. We contend that empirical results supporting the existence of a crowding-out effect in various contexts hide a more complex reality. We also propose a new policy instrument which taps into agents' heterogeneity regarding intrinsic motivations in order to turn a situation subject to crowding-out into a crowding-in outcome. This instrument uses a self-selection mechanism to match adequate monetary incentives with individuals' types regarding intrinsic motivations. 10 Keywords: crowding-out, heterogeneity, moral motivation, environmental regulation. JEL Classi cation: D03, D64, H23, Q58. 15 LAMETA - SupAgro. UMR LAMETA, INRA, place Pierre Viala, Bât. [email protected] z LAMETA - SupAgro. y 1 26, 34060 Montpellier Cedex 1, France. Email: 1 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Introduction Monetary incentives matter and are a powerful instrument to change behaviour. They are a part of the story but not all the story. Indeed, the crowding-out effect, which has recently received considerable attention in economic literature, stresses that the preferred leverage of economists, monetary incentives and disincentives can back re and lead to inferior outcomes. This counterproductive effect of introducing monetary (dis)incentives has been theoretically (Bénabou and Tirole, 2003) and empirically investigated (see Bowles, 2008 for a recent review). It has been proven to be relevant in a wide variety of contexts such as blood donation (Titmuss, 1970; Mellstrom and Johannesson, 2008), acceptance of a polluting infrastructure (Frey and OberholzerGee, 1997) or to address late coming parents in day-care centers (Gneezy and Rustichini, 2000) or bed-blocking in hospitals (Holmås et al., 2010). Most papers consider that all agents behave similarly when facing monetary incentives. Nevertheless, it is more realistic to assume that people are heterogeneous and have various intrinsic motivations according to the considered domain (Bénabou and Tirole, 2006; Beretti et al., 2013). Consequently, the overall result in a whole population supporting or not the existence of a crowding-out effect can overlook the fact that various subgroups of this whole population react differently when facing the introduction of monetary incentives. Indeed, moderate monetary incentives can both motivate people who were originally not intrinsically motivated and harm the intrinsic motivations of people who were originally intrinsically motivated. Moreover, most papers to date explore the likelihood of crowding-out effects in various contexts but do not propose alternatives to address this counterproductive result except the elimination of monetary incentives. Our paper addresses these two issues in a theoretical model that (i) allows to take into account the heterogeneity of individuals when faced with the introduction of monetary incentives (ii) suggests a mechanism to reduce the likelihood of getting a crowding-out result by tapping into the heterogeneity of individuals. We assume that monetary incentives matter and change behaviours in predictable directions according to the matching between to whom they are directed (i.e. paying the individual versus paying the cause) and the preexisting level of intrinsic motivation of the individual (i.e., low versus high level). Our model can explain a large variety of outcomes stressed in recent empirical studies and has policy relevance by suggesting a new instrument which eventually turns crowding-out into crowding-in (e.g., Beretti et al., 2013). The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. The second section describes the hypotheses of a simple decision-theoretic approach and considers the benchmarking case where only agents exhibiting a pristine altruism contribute to public-related cause, such as environmental conservation while non-intrinsically motivated people do not contribute. Section 3 analyzes what happens when this pristine altruism is distorted by adding monetary incentives which generates moral repugnance. At the same time, these monetary incentives can push non-intrinsically motivated people to contribute. Section 4 describes what happens when this pristine altruism of intrinsically motivated individuals is distorted by adding monetary incentives but without moral repugnance because the money is directed at the supported cause and 2 not at the individual. Section 5 introduces a treatment where people can choose whether the payment is directed to themselves or to an environmental association. Section 6 concludes. 2 60 65 70 Crowding-out with heterogenous agents: a simple model This section constructs a simple behavioral model, in the environmental realm, in which it is possible to explore the logical implications of various external monetary incentives on contributions when agents have heterogeneous intrinsic motivations. In the kind of situation we analyze in this paper, people know that they affect each other by their decisions, but their interactions are largely anonymous. They clearly don't know the set of strategies of the other individuals, nor do they know their utility functions. Actually they even ignore how many "others" there are. Therefore we prefer to analyze the issue using a "decision-theoretic approach", in connection with the work of Bolle & Otto (2010), rather than with a "game-theoretic approach" as in Bénabou & Tirole (2006). There is a continuum of agents of unit mass. Each agent i is endowed with an exogenous income yi . The decision xi of agent i is to contribute (xi = 1) or not (xi = 0) to some environmental cause and the opportunity cost of contributing, in monetary terms, is c(xi ). The standard assumption is that this cost is an increasing function: c (0) < c(1). Units are chosen in such a way that c (0) = 0; c(1) = c > 0. The remainder of his income is then affected to some alternative use ci = yi c(xi ). His decision-relevant preferences, de ned over bundles (yi c(xi ); xi ), are captured by the following decision utility function: U i (xi ) = yi 75 80 (1) c(xi ) + ai t xi : We use here the popular distinction between decision utility which prompts actions, and experienced utility, or hedonic satisfaction1 , which results from actions (see for instance Kahneman, Wakker & Sarin, 1997). In expression (1): t is agent i's estimation of the marginal "monetarized" bene ts produced by his contribution xi on the other agents, and ai 2 [0; 1] is a parameter that captures an attitude towards the other individuals via the environment, a sort of ecologically-mediated, or `green', altruistic concern. Those parameters are uniformly distributed on [0; 1] and each agent can be identi ed with a particular point in this interval. At one extreme, Agent 0 with a0 = 0 does not feature 1 Experienced utility functions would rather incorporate altruism, and account for the public good created by aggregated contributions, within a formulation like: Z Z U i (xi ; x i ) = yi c(xi ) + ai U h (xh ; x h )dh + bi xh dh: h6=i 3 h2[0;1] any environmental concern; at the other polar case, Agent 1 with a1 = 1 has a strong ecological conscience. 85 We now study the effects of different incentive schemes on contribution. 2.1 Neutral Treatment: pristine altruism alone In the neutral treatment there is no incentive scheme and altruism is the only intrinsic motivation at work. Assume that, for the most altruistic agent, with a1 = 1; the marginal bene t of contributing covers its marginal cost, that is c (1) c (0) = c < t . Individuals choose to contribute or not with a view to maximize (1). Hence, agents who settle for zero contributions are those such that: yi c(0) > yi + ai t c(1) ; and the others contribute. Put differently, those in the interval 0; aN where aN = [c (1) interval c (0)] =t = c=t , are non-contributors, with a mass aN ; and those in the CN aN ; 1 are contributors. The total number of contributors is 1 2.2 aN : (2) Direct Treatment (A): distorted altruism and moral repugnance When individuals are paid for their contribution to the environment their decision utility function becomes: V i (xi ) = yi c(xi ) + wxi + ai txi m (ai ; w; xi ) ; (3) 90 95 where w is the monetary payment for participation. The introduction of the payment has two effects as far as intrinsic motivations are concerned. First, the altruistic motivation is distorted. This incentive leads the agents to revise their estimation of the bene ts of their contribution on the environment, which is now t instead of t ; with t < t : The idea is that the presence of a monetary transfer acts as a signal of the value of participation (Bolle and Otto, 2010), upon which individual estimations can be anchored. Moreover we assume that the estimation is at least equal to the payment offered (t w). Second, agents who have a concern for the environment now suffer from a moral repugnance associated with the fact of being paid for contributing. This aspect is captured by function m (:; :; :) in expression (3). Putting a price onto a territory previously immune to the market forces is one of the list of events that generally spark the yuck factor argument (see for instance 4 Sandel, 2012, and also the discussion about obnoxious markets in Kanbur, 2001). The monetarized value of this psychological "cost" is m (ai ; w; xi ) 0 . It is natural to assume that the larger the green altruism ai , or the larger the payment w, and the larger the moral repugnance. To put it formally, m (ai ; w; xi ) is non decreasing in the two rst arguments: @ m (ai ; w; xi ) @ai @ m (ai ; w; xi ) @w ma (ai ; w; xi ) 0; mw (ai ; w; xi ) 0: We also assume that the marginal moral repugnance increases when altruism gets larger: @2 m (ai ; w; xi ) (@ai )2 maa (ai ; w; xi ) 0: On the other hand, the mere fact to contribute could mitigate moral repugnance, so m (ai ; w; xi ) is non increasing in the last argument: m (ai ; w; 0) m (ai ; w; 1) : Finally, without altruism, or without payment (when w = 0 or/and xi = 0), there is no moral repugnance, therefore m (0; w; xi ) = m (ai ; 0; xi ) = m (ai ; w; 0) = 0 : Agents decide to contribute or not by comparing the levels of utility attached to each possibility. De ne the utility change of contributing: 4V i (ai ; w) 100 V i (1) V i (0) ; = w + ai t + c(0) c(1) + m (ai ; w; 0) = w + ai t c 4m (ai ; w) ; m (ai ; w; 1) ; (4) where 4m (ai ; w) m (ai ; w; 1) m (ai ; w; 0) = m (ai ; w; 1) : Function 4V i (ai ; w) is supposed to be of class C 1 . (meaning that r (:; :; 1) as a function of ai and w is itself C 1 .) Notice that increasing the degree of green altruism can have two opposite effects on the utility change. The rst effect is positive; it goes through the marginal bene t on others that is more valued by a more altruistic agent. The second effect is negative, because more altruism goes along with a more stringent moral repugnance under the direct treatment. Contributors are those agents with 4V i (ai ; w) 0 and non contributors are agents i with 4V i (ai ) < 0: 5 Assumption 1. Let us further assume that: lim 4V i (ai ; w) = w ai !0 lim 4V i (ai ; w) = w + t ai !1 d 4V i (ai ; w) = t ai !0 dai d lim 4V i (ai ; w) = t ai !1 dai lim (5) c<0; c 4m (1; w) < 0 ; (6) ma (0; w; 1) > 0 ; (7) ma (1; w; 1) < 0: (8) Item (5) of Assumption 1 focuses the analysis to payments w that are not high enough to encourage participation of the less altruistic agents (the payment alone is not enough to compensate the opportunity cost of contributing). This is the most interesting case, because if extrinsic incentives are too strong, no crowding-out effect can occur. Item (6) of Assumption 1 means that for the most altruistic agents, contributing is not optimal because their feeling of altruism towards others, though important, is overwhelmed by their moral repugnance of being paid. From items (7) and (8) of Assumption 1, given that: d2 i 2 4V (ai ; w) = (dai ) maa (ai ; w; 1) 0; and by the intermediate value theorem, 9ai such that t @a@ i m (ai ; w; 1) = 0: Therefore function 4V i (ai ) has an inverted U shape: it is rst increasing, until ai , then decreasing. Assume that 4V i (ai ) > 0: Then there exists a neighborhood C D (ai ) 105 110 [ai "; ai + "] @ [0; 1] of contributing agents around ai ; i.e. 4V i (ai ; w) 0; 8ai 2 C D (ai ) : Note that C D (ai ) ; which is also the mass of contributors, is a proper subset of [0; 1] ; for all the elements of [0; 1] do not belong to C D (ai ); in particular, because of parts (5) and (6) of Assumption 1, agents a0 and a1 are not contributors. It is interesting to emphasize the peculiarity of this treatment. The choice not to contribute can be explained by two intrinsic motivations of different natures: a degree of altruism too low or a moral repugnance too strong (precisely in the most altruistic agents). For future reference, let us denote: aD = ai " ; aD = ai + " : the agents who, among those who contribute, have the lowest and largest altruism respectively. By de nition, those two values solve the equation: 4V i (ai ; w) = w + ai t 6 c 4m (ai ; w) = 0: (9) Does crowding-out necessarily occur? To answer this question, one has to compare the mass of 1 aN of contributors under the neutral treatment with the mass aD aD . Unless more structure is given to the moral repugnance function 4m (ai ; w), equation (9) cannot be solved explicitly for aD and aD . Still, important qualitative pieces of information can be obtained. The possibility of crowding-out depends on the relative position of aN with respect to aD and aD . The answer is ambiguous when aN 2 aD ; aD and when aN > aD ; but there is crowding-out for sure when aN aD . All those situations can be associated with particular conditions on parameters. Since 4V i (ai ) has an inverted U shape and takes on positive values around ai , by construction aN 2 aD ; aD if and only if: 4V i aN ; w 0: Using (4) and the fact that aN = c=t : 4V i aN ; w 0 , w+ c t t c m c ; w; 1 t 0: (10) c ; w; 1 < 0 : t (11) By the same logic, if aN < aD or if aN > aD , then necessarily: 4V i aN ; w < 0 115 , w+ c t t c m The last inequality means that, for agent aN , the payment alone does not provide suf cient incentives to compensate the cost of moral repugnance and the decrease in altruistic motivation following the change of bene ts on others from t to t. This is consistent both with a too low value for w and with a too high value (recall that moral repugnance increases with w). This assessment of the weakness of monetary incentives is not absolute, but relative to parameter t . So, rewriting equality (11): De nition 1 (t -weak extrinsic incentive). Extrinsic incentives are t -weak when: w<c t t t +m c ; w; 1 : t The above reasoning has therefore established: Proposition 1. If aN < aD ; incentives are t -weak and there is crowding out. A last question is about the interactions between internal and external incentives. It is generally considered that the phenomenon of crowding-out gets weaker as external (monetary) incentives gets stronger. Let us analyze the effect of increasing the external incentive w on the upper and lower bounds of C D (ai ), i.e. on aD and aD : By equation (9) and the implicit function theorem, using the properties that t ma > 0 until ai and t ma < 0 after ai , and under the 7 assumption that moral repugnance increases less than proportionally with the external incentive, mw < 1; we can conclude: da dw da dw = 1 t mw aD ; w; 1 <0; ma (aD ; w; 1) = 1 t mw aD ; w; 1 >0: ma aD ; w; 1 a=aD a=aD Therefore, as w increases the mass of contributors C D (ai ) = aD ; aD gets wider. But it is important to notice that a crowding-out is not a necessary consequence of the direct treatment. A necessary condition for crowding in is aD < aN . This may well happen if the monetary payment w is high enough. But this condition is not suf cient, because there is a mass of highly altruistic agents, 1 aD ; who do not participate. By continuity, when w increases so that aD decreases and falls below aN , and if: da dw 120 125 a=aD da dw Proposition 2. Under Assumptions (7), (8), and when moral repugnance increases less than proportionally with the external incentive, mw < 1; the stronger the external incentive w, the weaker the crowding-out effect, if any, under the direct treatment. Indirect Treatment (B): distorted altruism alone Under this design the payment is no longer given to contributors; rather it is directed to a cause supporting the environment, for example a related association or NGO. Hence individual i no longer bears the cost of moral repugnance, but of course his altruistic motivation is activated, for participation still generates a bene t to the environment. The decision utility functions are now: W i (xi ) = yi + ai b txi 135 ; a=aD that is if at the margin the increase of lower-end contributors is less than the decrease of upperend non contributors, there is a continuum of values for w consistent with crowding-in, even though the less altruistic agent who participates under the direct treatment is less altruistic than the less altruistic agent who participates in the neutral treatment. To summarize, 2.3 130 < c(xi ) ; where b t is the corrected individual estimation of bene ts on the environment. Regarding the fact that a payment is directed to the cause supported by the individual, we can reasonably consider that the individual estimation of the bene t on the environment of his participation is higher than when the same amount of money is directed to the individual's 8 140 pocket, because the chosen destination, by its very nature, reinforces the belief of the agent on the presence of high environmental values, or because the association is more ef cient than individuals in transforming a given amount of contributions in environmental gains. An assumption on parameters consistent with that view is t b t. Hence, agents who settle for zero contributions are those such that: c(0) > yi + ai b t yi c(1); and the others contribute. Put differently, there is an interval 0; aI ; where c aI = ; b t of non-contributors, and an interval CI (12) aI ; 1 of contributors. The total number of contributors is 1 145 (13) aI : Compared to the neutral treatment there is crowding-out when b t t ; because the mass of contributors has shrunk (compare expression (13) with expression (2)). This non ambiguous result is rather intuitive: there is no direct own bene t and the estimation of the bene ts on others has been cut down (b t t ), so the incentives to participate are weaker compared to the neutral treatment. However, the comparison with the direct treatment is more subtle. It is worth noting that there is a mass of agents near a1 who contribute under the indirect treatment and who do not contribute under the direct treatment. In two cases, when aI 2 aD ; aD and when aI > aD ; we cannot state which policy better encourages participation. But the indirect treatment outperforms the direct treatment for sure when aI < aD . Again all those situations can be associated with particular conditions on parameters. For aD aI aD , a necessary and suf cient condition on the fundamentals of the model derives from the observation that 4V i aI ; w = 4V i c=b t; w 0 in such a situation. Or equivalently, using (4): w c b t t b t +m c ; w; 1 b t : When this condition is not met, a necessary condition is obtained for aI < aD : De nition 2 (b t-weak extrinsic incentives). Extrinsic incentives are b t-weak when: w<c b t t b t +m 9 c ; w; 1 b t : (14) 150 155 t-weak and crowding-out is unambiguously less important When aI < aD ; incentives are b under the indirect treatment. Intuitively, even if there are no monetary rewards for the agents under policy B, altruistic motives are less corroded than under the direct treatment and, in addition, the extrinsic motivation is not strong enough under policy A to compensate the weaker altruistic motivation and moral repugnance. In a nutshell: b Proposition 3. When the estimations of the bene ts on others are such that t t t , if I D a < a the extrinsic incentives are b t-weak and the indirect treatment unambiguously mitigates the crowding-out effect compared to the direct treatment. When extrinsic incentives are not b tD I weak, or when a > a , the ability of the indirect treatment to improve participation compared to the direct treatment is ambiguous. However, in any case, participation under the indirect treatment is never larger than under the neutral treatment, aN aI . 2.4 160 165 Choice Treatment (C): auto-selection of motivations Under this treatment, individuals can choose whether the payment is directed to themselves or to an environmental association. Giving the choice to individuals (keeping the reward for themselves or giving it to the `environmental cause') could motivate a wider set of individuals, possibly leading to a higher overall contribution2 . In a sense, by choosing the target of the payment individual i chooses which decision utility function to activate. Then, agent i's decision utility functions exists in two expressions: it is: V i (xi ) = yi c(xi ) + wxi + ai txi m (ai ; w; xi ) ; when the payment is direct. and it is: W i (xi ) = yi + ai b txi c(xi ) ; when the payment is indirect. Does the choice treatment minimize the countervailing effect of external incentives? Notice rst that the utility attached to non participation is the same, whatever the chosen target: U i (0) = V i (0) = W i (0) = yi : 170 But the utility derived from participation differs according to the target of the payment. Agents who increase their utility by contributing are those who belong to at least one of the sets of 2 Moreover, in addition to obvious intuitive reasons based on empirical evidence, we argue that people enjoy the possibility of choosing by themselves, even at a cost (Benz et al., 2004; Frey and Stutzer, 2005). This is conceptualized through the idea of 'procedural utility'. 10 175 contributors previously identi ed. Clearly, the set C C of contributors under the choice treatment is the union of the two sets of contributors of each separate treatment, i.e. C C = C I [ C D . The set C C encompasses agents ai such that 4V i (ai ) 0; and/or 4W i (ai ) 0 and, therefore, the choice treatment promotes participation as least as much as the two policies A & B separately do. But more precision can be added. We will keep on assuming that estimations of the bene ts of altruism are such that t b t t : Even under this assumption, several con gurations for the different sets of contributors are possible: Case 1 A rst case is when aN aI < aD ; so the extrinsic motive is both t -weak and b t-weak (de nitions 1 and 2). Then the different sets of contributors are such that: CD @ CI = CC v CN : 180 Contributors under the choice treatment are exactly those who contribute under the indirect treatment and they are not more numerous than those who contribute under the neutral treatment. Case 2 A more interesting case is when the monetary payment is suf ciently important to produce the following ranking aN aD < aI aD ; that is the extrinsic motive is t -weak but it is not b t-weak. The sets of contributors are then in the following con guration: CD; CI @ CN ; CD; CI @ CC ; CC v CN : Contributors under the choice treatment are more numerous than those who contribute under any of the two separate treatments. But the choice treatment does not perform any better than the neutral treatment. Case 3 The most interesting case is when the monetary incentives are pushed slightly further so that aD < aN < aI aD : The sets of contributors are such that: CD; CI @ CN ; CD; CI @ CC ; 185 190 CN @ CC: This is a case featuring crowding-out under each separate treatment, but there is crowdingin under the choice treatment. This possibility occurs because several intrinsic motivations exists and because agents are heterogenous. As a results those who contribute are not necessarily identical across treatments and, even more, C D is neither a proper subset of C I nor a proper subset of C N . The corresponding necessary and suf cient conditions on parameters have been identi ed in (10) and (14). They must be imposed simultaneously, as a new assumption: Assumption 2 (Conditions for crowding-in). w c t t t +m c ; w; 1 t and w 11 c b t t b t +m c ; w; 1 : b t 195 aI : It is not possible to conclude - without further Case 4 Finally when aD < aN < aD information on the moral repugnance function - about the extent of the crowding-out phenomenon, if any, because there is a mass of agents characterized by intermediate degrees of altruism in the interval aD ; aI who are not contributors. However, this situation is discarded when the extrinsic motivation is not b t-weak. To summarize, the choice treatment combines the incentive effects of both the direct and indirect treatments: 200 Proposition 4. Let Assumption 1 holds and assume also t < b t t . Participation under policy C (choice treatment) is at least as large as under policies A & B. The choice treatment even results in crowding-in, although there is crowding-out under policies A & B, if and only if Assumption 2 is satis ed. 3 Conclusion 205 210 215 We made a strong case for how different intrinsic motivations among agents can play an instrumental role in explaining the effectiveness of introducing monetary incentives. We have formalized how the heterogeneity of intrinsic motivations among agents impacts their reactions to the introduction of monetary incentives. We showed that overall results supporting (or not) an undesired crowding-out effect can occult a more complex reality where some individuals contribute thanks to these additional monetary incentives while others reduce their contributions. Moreover, we proposed a new instrument which taps into agents' heterogeneity in order to suppress, or at least to reduce, the risk of crowding-out effect. This instrument avoids a `one-sizets-all' policy and allows agents to self-select the most relevant arrangement. A considerable advantage of our mechanism is that it does not require that policy makers have an extensive knowledge about the various levels of intrinsic motivations of agents. In sum, we believe that a ne analysis of agents' heterogeneity can usefully complement studies of crowding-out effects and lead to innovative and more effective policy interventions. Last, but not least, our paper also acts as a call for further empirical research about the heterogeneity of intrinsic motivations. References and Notes 220 [1] Bénabou R., Tirole J., 2006, Incentives and Prosocial Behavior, American Economic Review. 96, 1652-1678. [2] Benz M., Frey B.S., Stutzer A., 2004, Introducing Procedural Utility: Not Only What, but Also How Matters, Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics JITE. 160, 377-401. 12 225 [3] Beretti A., Figuières C., Grolleau G., 2013, Using Money to Motivate Both Saints and Sinners: a Field Experiment on Motivational Crowding-Out, Kyklos, 66/1, 63-77. 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