Vilniaus miesto bendrasis planas iki 2015 metų

Vilniaus miesto bendrasis planas iki 2015 metų

REGIONAL AND URBAN
DEVELOPMENT TRENDS IN
LITHUANIA
Mindaugas Pakalnis
SWECO Lithuania
Chief architect-urban planner
Tel. +370 688 87128, mail: [email protected]
Lithuania and Baltic region in Europe
The urban centers in eastern Baltic region
DISTANCES BY
ROADS, KM
Helsinki
4h
350
Saint
Petersburg
Tallinn
307
Riga
280
Vilnius
170
Minsk
460
Warsaw
Urban and population potential in Baltic region
Lithuania (esp. Vilnius and Kaunas) –
the best population potential in the
Baltics region
Helsinki
Tallinn
Riga
Kaunas
Vilnius
Minsk
Dominant branch of employment in Baltic region
Financial services
Vilnius and Tallinn - the II range
centers of financial services,
dominated by non domestic
(Scandinavian) banks
Employees in R&D branches
Vilnius – the II range R&D center
in the region
Existing TEN-T road and rail networks in Baltic region
Helsinki
Tallinn
Riga
Kaunas
Vilnius
Minsk
Missing highway links
Planned VIA BALTICA link
VILNIUS AND KAUNAS TWIN CITIES (DIPOLIS)
DEVELOPMENT
PRIORITIES
2005-2015
1. Development of
transportation infrastructure
2. Development of economy
Integration of
potentials
3. Developmet infrastruture for
buiseness and tourism
Vilnius – Kaunas twin cities (dipolis)
1.6 mlj. inhabitants
61% Lithuania and 25% Baltic countries GDP = GDP of Estonia
Demography in Lithuania in XX-XXI centuries.
4000000
3690000
3460000
3500000
3398000
3037100
3100000
3000000
2828000
2500000
2711000
2750000
2561000
2000000
Lietuva (EUROSTAT prognozė)
Lietuva (surašymų duomenys)
1500000
Lietuva (patikslintas scenarijus)
Vilnius (surašymų duomenys)
Vilnius realiausia pronozė
576747
205200
540000
Source: Department of Statistics of Lithuania + prognosis of EUROSTAT
2060
2050
2040
2020
2010
2001
1989
1959
1950
1939
1979
236100
179000
1913
1897
0 154132
535000
531691
1970
500000
2030
1000000
Weakening creative part of the society
Active part of the society
(revised forecast)
Old age dependency till 2060 will triple itself
Source: EUROSTAT
Development prognosis for different cities
600000
576747
531411 535000 537000 540000 540000 540000
475825
500000
419745
370153
400000
370000
305600
300000
335393
280000260000
236100
216850 176648
140320
200000
100 000 gyventojų
245000 235000
230000
202929
170699 160000
152000 150000 150000 150000
89500
100000
0
1959
1970
1979
1989
2009
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Population changes 1989 till 2013
Vilnius ( -45336)
Kaunas ( -84352)
Source: Department of Statistics of Lithuania
Klaipėda (-32230)
Demographic trends of Vilnius, Riga and Tallinn
Riga - pesimistic
Sources: Vilnius city master plan, Geomedia forecast for Tallinn, University of Latvia (A.Bērziņš) forecast for Riga
Lithuania – altering of population
2005
2012
4 grandparents – 2 grandchildren
Alytaus m.
Alytaus r.
Druskininkų
Lazdijų r.
Varėnos r.
Birštono
Jonavos r.
Kaišiadorių r.
Kauno m.
Kauno r.
Kėdainių r.
Prienų r.
Raseinių r.
Klaipėdos m.
Klaipėdos r.
Kretingos r.
Neringos
Palangos m.
Skuodo r.
Šilutės r.
Kalvarijos
Kazlų Rūdos
Marijampolės
Šakių r.
Vilkaviškio r.
Biržų r.
Kupiškio r.
Panevėžio m.
Panevėžio r.
Pasvalio r.
Rokiškio r.
Akmenės r.
Joniškio r.
Kelmės r.
Pakruojo r.
Radviliškio r.
Šiaulių m.
Šiaulių r.
Jurbarko r.
Pagėgių
Šilalės r.
Tauragės r.
Mažeikių r.
Plungės r.
Rietavo
Telšių r.
Anykščių r.
Ignalinos r.
Molėtų r.
Utenos r.
Visagino
Zarasų r.
Elektrėnų
Šalčininkų r.
Širvintų r.
Švenčionių r.
Trakų r.
Ukmergės r.
Vilniaus m.
Vilniaus r. sav.
Decline of the towns
20000
Kauno raj.
Klaipėdos raj.
Vilniaus raj.
0
-20000
-40000
-60000
-80000
-100000
Degrading landscape
Why our landscape is changing ?????:
Cattle rearing in Lithuania in XX-XXIa.
URBAN SPRAWL
Klaipėda
Vilnius
Vilnius city urban area
Vilnius
Area – 402 km2
Population – 539000
Density–1 340 inh./km2
Paris
Area – 105 km2
Population – 2211297
Density–21 060 inh./km2
30
km
Barcelona
Area – 101 km2
Population – 1. 621 537
Density–16.055 inh./sq km
Viena
Area – 414.65 km2
Population – 1.757 353
Density–4.002.2 inh./km2
Population (within the municipal borders) 555 000
Day population
680 000
Metropolis population
800 000
Urban structure model
Central zone XII-XIX c.
Middle zone XX c.
Periphery zone XX-XXI c.
PRESENT TENDENCIES
High quality of renovated areas in the
city centre
Devastated territories in the city
centre
Chaotic development of suburbs
Disperse urban structure - basic problem of our cities
Minimal sustainable density
of built up area – 30 in./ha
VILNIUS
200,00
RYGA
gyventoių/ha
150,00
100,00
68,6
30 inh./ha
47,4
50,0040,80
30,930,2
23,5
13,7
8,3 6
2,1 1 1,6 2,8 1,4 0,5 0,1
0,00
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
Atstumas nuo miesto centro (km)
LOW DENCITY OF INHABITANTS
Average density of builtup area:
1998 - 48 inh./1 ha
2011 - 39 inh./1 ha
DENSITY OF INHABITANTS IN THE CITIES OF THE WORLD
Vilnius 39 inh./ha
Vilnius
Ryga 64 inh./ha
Praha 71 inh./ha
COMING CLOSER TO AMERICAN CITY
MODEL ???
Urban density and transport related energy consumption
Coming closer to american
model of the city ???
Vilnius 20,6 GJ/inh.
per year
Conformist planning
1200000
1000000
800000
579000
600000
137000
400000
553000
364000
200000
352000
143000
88000
Kauno miestas
Kauno rajonas
96000
0
Vilniaus miestas
Vilniaus rajonas
esamas gyventojų skaičius
gali tilpti papildomai
Urban sprawl in Europe and Lithuania
125
125
120
120
115
115
110
110
105
105
100
100
95
95
90
90
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Built up areas
Transport infrastructure
Quantity of inhabitants
Europe
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Buil up areas
Transport infrastructure
2005
2010
Quantity of inhabitants
Lithuania
LOW TERRITORY USE DENSITY
Siektini rodikliai :
Centrinė miesto dalis – 1,6-2,5
gvenamieji rajonai, Naujamiestis –1,0-1,2-1,6
Development tendencies after 2007:
TENDENCIJOS
2007 construction
SprawlPO
of homes
Multistorey dwellings
Daugiabučiai
pastatai
Single family houses
Vienbučiai
ir dvibučiai pastatai
Building permits for single family houses
1373
1148
1134
1028
904
773
Kolektyviniuose
soduose
Gyvenamuosiuose
kvartaluose
iki 2007.02
2007.02-2010
nuo 2010.01
Altering of compact part of the city
Average – 30 years
Average age
Network of schools
It is enough schools by
amount of inhabitants but
not enough for territory
coverage – 11 schools missing
in periphery zone.
Amount for 1000 inh.
In Vilnius
Sec. schools
Norm
1997
2003
2004
140
155
149
140
Network of kindergardens
Not enough kindergartens
by amount of inhabitants
and territory coverage
Amount for 1000 inh.
In Vilnius
Kindergartens
Norm
1997
2003
2004
33
36
38
65-70
URBAN SPRAWL AND REAL ESTATE PRICES
VILNIUS
URBAN SPRAWL AND REAL ESTATE PRICES
KLAIPĖDA
Possible solutions
Polycentric development of the country
Development of railway network and Klaipeda sea port
Rail Baltica
Growth from 28 till 90
mln. t.
Logistic
centre
IX B corridor
Polycentric developmet of the cities integration of cities and suburbs
Vilnius City development concept up to 2025
- Development model decentralized
concentration
- Permanent,
sustaniable growth of
quality of life and
decreasing
diversification.
- Preserved principles of
sustainable
development
Development of public transportation
1.
2.
3.
Modern tram
Extension of trolley-bus network (or electric buses)
Extension of omnibus network in the periphery
Redeployment of brownfield areas
Potential total 500 ha
In the centre 120 ha
Undevelopt areas in centre of Vilnius city
Sucesessfull projects of brownfields redevelopment
Šiaurės miestelis
Naujasis centras
Naujamiestis
„Verslo trikampis“
Required help for acceleration- consolidation of properties, cleaning, development of
public infrastructure
Soviet –built housing renovation
Urban structure of soviet-built blocks
Unfriendly open plan structure
Safe yard, controlled environment – normal
wish of modern family
Soviet built blocks – not everything must be
renovated
Typology of tipical dwelling
Soviet –built blocks - replaning required
Renovation - German experience
Renovation - German experience
Renovation - Dutch experience
MODERNISATION OF PUBLIC BUILDINGS
„No single project without culture“
Support for creative and local communities
Development of bottom –up initiatives.
THANK YOU
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