CMA - Jabatan Meteorologi Malaysia

10th IWS of ESCAP/WMO TC
2015 Progress Report
(WGM)
LEI Xiao-tu (STI/CMA)
Clarence FONG (Mete. Expert of TCS)
29, October 2015, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
WGM parallel session at 10th IWS

27-28 October 2015
Day 2 Lumpur
- Berjaya Times Square Hotel, Kuala
Day 3
(28 October 2015)
(27 October 2015)

Participation
Morning
(8:30-12:00)
Members report of 2015
(Meteorological component )
- 12 Members (Cambodia, Singapore absent),
Review the plans in 2015 (cont’d)
- 38 delegates (include WMO/PTC and TCS,
Lunch (12:00-13:30)
TRCG )

Afternoon
Items:
(13:30-17:30)
Review the plans in 2015 (AOPs,
POP & PPs)
- Members report (Meteo. component)
- Review plans (AOPs, POPs and PPs) of 2015
- Draft priority projects in 2016
-
Discuss and draft the priority
plans for 2016
Other business
Outline
Members’ progress (Mete. component)
Implementation status of plans in 2015
Proposed plans & budget of 2016
Summary & Recommendation
Part I:
Overview of Members’ progress
(meteorological component)
Members’ Reports
(Day 2: 27 Oct.)
Cambodia
(absent)
DPR Korea
HKO
JMA
Macao
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
Singapore
(absent)
USA
China
Lao PDR
ROK
Viet Nam
25 TCs in 2015 (until to 25 Oct.)
Tracks of TCs over NWP in 2015
 More TCs genesis in 1st half year
(9) than average (4.6)
 More easterly TCs
 Longer life cycle
 Higher landing intensity
Monthly TC genesis over NWP

The impacts of tropical cyclone on Members:
Affect directly (Landfall)
un-directly
China
6
2
DPR Korea
1
1
Remark
Cambodia
Hong Kong, China
73 died, ￥66 billion loss
3
Japan
4
3
Lao PDR
1
1
Macao, China
8 died
3
Malaysia
/
6
The Philippine
6
6
ROK
/
4
Recordable wind
Singapore
Thailand
1
USA
Viet Nam
Rainfall 12% below
Record wind broken
2
Water shortages,
110died, $240million
Summary of Advances on Key Result Areas
Title of item
1 : Enhanced public
weather service
2 : Improved the ability
of weather now-casting
3 : The communication
networks
5 : Capacity Building for
Meteorologist
KRA
Meteorology
1
2


Meteorology


Meteorology
Training and
research
3
4
5
6





7

1) Significant progress (monitoring)
Satellite Radar
Flight
Rocket
others
ST-12
CMA/Cast system
Cambodia
China
FY-2G/F
DPR Korea
Hong Kong, China
Japan
S-band
Himawari-8
AIMMS-20
Ship-radiosondes
Doppler
Lao PDR
Macao, China
S-band
Malaysia
The Philippine
ROK
buoy
Singapore
Thailand
USA
Viet Nam
C-band
HS3
II-8. Estimation of the radius of 15m/s wind speed
Regional Cooperation
8th China-Korea Workshop on Tropical Cyclones
Regional Cooperation
Photos of visit to TMD of the Thailand(upper) and DMH of the Lao PDR(lower)
Part II:
Implementation status of plans in 2015
2015
4 - POP
9 - AOP
AOP1
EF
(JMA)
POP1
Seasonal prediction
(KMA)
AOP3
TRAMS
(CMA)
3 - PP
AOP2
Verification
(CMA)
PP1
High GRAPES-TCM
(CMA)
AOP4
SWFDP-As
(Viet Nam)
AOP5
POP2
POP3
Forum
(CMA)
TCRR
(CMA)
Radar network
(TMD)
AOP6
TC-AR3
(Macao)
POP4
AOP8
TAPS
(KMA)



EXOTICA
(CMA)
AOP7
PP2
TC Intensity analysis
(JMA)
SS watch
(JMA)
AOP9
Competency
(RSMC)
Perennial operating (or routine actions) projects (POPs)
Annual operating projects (AOPs)
Preliminary Projects (PPs)
PP3
Available data use
(CMA)
WGM
2015
4 - POP
9 - AOP
AOP1
EF
(JMA)
POP1
Seasonal prediction
(KMA)
AOP3
TRAMS
(CMA)
3 - PP
AOP2
Verification
(CMA)
PP1
High GRAPES-TCM
(CMA)
AOP4
SWFDP-As
(Viet Nam)
AOP5
POP2
POP3
Forum
(CMA)
TCRR
(CMA)
Radar network
(TMD)
AOP6
TC-AR3
(Macao)
POP4
AOP8
TAPS
(KMA)



EXOTICA
(CMA)
AOP7
PP2
TC Intensity analysis
(JMA)
SS watch
(JMA)
AOP9
Competency
(RSMC)
Perennial operating (or routine actions) projects (POPs)
Annual operating projects (AOPs)
Preliminary Projects (PPs)
PP3
Available data use
(CMA)
WGM
2015
4 - POP
9 - AOP
AOP1
EF
(JMA)
POP1
Seasonal prediction
(KMA)
AOP3
TRAMS
(CMA)
3 - PP
AOP2
Verification
(CMA)
PP1
High GRAPES-TCM
(CMA)
AOP4
SWFDP-As
(Viet Nam)
AOP5
POP2
POP3
Forum
(CMA)
TCRR
(CMA)
Radar network
(TMD)
AOP6
TC-AR3
(Macao)
POP4
AOP8
TAPS
(KMA)



EXOTICA
(CMA)
AOP7
PP2
TC Intensity analysis
(JMA)
SS watch
(JMA)
AOP9
Competency
(RSMC)
Perennial operating (or routine actions) projects (POPs)
Annual operating projects (AOPs)
Preliminary Projects (PPs)
PP3
Available data use
(CMA)
WGM
2015
4 - POP
9 - AOP
AOP1
EF
(JMA)
POP1
Seasonal prediction
(KMA)
AOP3
TRAMS
(CMA)
3 - PP
AOP2
Verification
(CMA)
PP1
High GRAPES-TCM
(CMA)
AOP4
SWFDP-As
(Viet Nam)
AOP5
POP2
POP3
Forum
(CMA)
TCRR
(CMA)
Radar network
(TMD)
AOP6
TC-AR3
(Macao)
POP4
AOP8
TAPS
(KMA)



EXOTICA
(CMA)
AOP7
PP2
TC Intensity analysis
(JMA)
SS watch
(JMA)
AOP9
Competency
(RSMC)
Perennial operating (or routine actions) projects (POPs)
Annual operating projects (AOPs)
Preliminary Projects (PPs)
PP3
Available data use
(CMA)
WGM
The implementation status of plans in 2015:
I. POPs
 Transfer (techniques)
POP1 (Seasonal prediction)
POP4 (TAPS)
 Communication
(information & knowledge)
POP2 (Web-based typhoon forum)
POP3 (Tropical Cyclone Research and Review)
Perennial Operating Projects (POPs)
Routine actions
① Transfer (techniques)
Development of typhoon seasonal
prediction system
POP1
KMA
•
To further develop the techniques of typhoon
seasonal prediction
•
To establish the web-based system to provide the
products of typhoon seasonal prediction for TC
Members
POP4
Continue
POP
① Training & transfer (techniques)
Transfer of the technology of TAPS
POP1
•
To train the typhoon forecasters on the use of the
TAPS upon Member’s request
•
To provide follow-on technical assistance
Members on the implementation of TAPS
KMA
POP4
Continue
POP
to
② Communication (information & knowledge)
Web-based typhoon forum
POP2
•
To run routinely
•
Upgrade the Forum and opening for scientists and
http://www.typhoon.gov.cn/en/bbs
operational forecasters upon request.
CMA
POP3
Continue
POP
② Communication (information & knowledge)
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
POP2
•
To publish the journal quarterly in 2014
•
Improvement of the editorial
inviting2-3 visiting editors)
procedure
(includes
CMA
POP3
Continue
POP
The implementation status of plans in 2015:
 WMO demonstration projects
II. AOPs
AOP1 (NWP-TCEFP), AOP2 (TLFDP),
AOP4 (SWFDP-SeA)
 Experiment (field campaign)
AOP8 (EXOTICA)
 Operational techniques
AOP3 (TRAMS), AOP5(Radar), AOP6 (TC-AR3),
AOP7 (SS), AOP9(FCST Competency)
Annual Operating Projects (AOPs)
① WMO demonstration projects
Enhanced use of ensemble forecast
AOP1
AOP2
Action in 2015:
•
To prepare for provision of ensemble TC track
guidance of ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP, and JMA through
the Numerical Typhoon Prediction Website if
necessary NWP data are provided.
Progress in 2015
•
RSMC Tokyo relaunched the Numerical Typhoon
Prediction website in May 2015 and has provided a
variety of TC products including ensemble TC track
guidance of ECMWF, NCEP and JMA.
AOP4
Continue
AOP
① WMO demonstration projects
Verification of TCs operational forecast (WMO-TLFDP)
AOP1
AOP2
•
To carry out post-season verification and reliability analyses on
the operational forecast of tropical cyclones in Committee session
•
To provide the real time verification information on track and
intensity forecast through WMO-TLFDP website
•
To further improve the evaluation system for tropical cyclone
forecast, with special attention on genesis and ensemble forecast
conjunction with WMO-TLFDP (to be included in the TC
Fellowship Scheme)
•
To offer fellowship for training on (b)
AOP4
Move POP5
AOP
① WMO demonstration projects
Implementing of RFSC in SWFDP for South East
Asia
AOP1
AOP2
AOP4
Continue

•
Provide the motion of observed precipitation areas up to 3
hours ahead (1 hour cycle) using Semi-Lagrangian advection
scheme in combination with satellite data
•
Provide tropical cyclone track and intensity and severe weather
forecasting charts based on NWP model
•
Coordinate with WMO-TLFDP and "Web-based Typhoon
Forum" project to provide the verification product and add the
"Forecast Forum" tool in SWFDP-SeA website
•
Set up FTP server to share raw data between Vietnam and
Access
others. at: http://www.swfdp-sea.com.vn/login
Or: http://www.swfdp-sea.com.vn/index
 Username: swfdp-sea
 Password: RA2
Note: User is encouraged to use Firefox browser
AOP
② Experiment (Field campaign)
Contribution for “EXOTICA”
AOP10
•
To hold the OC meeting for preparing the implementation (field
campaign in 2015) of the experiment
•
To test the field campaign by using aircraft dropsondes, mobile
GPS radiosondes and rocket dropsondes
•
Demonstration research on tropical cyclone intensity change by
using target typhoon data from the field campaign (to be
included in the TC Fellowship Scheme)
Eye
MSLP
Continue
AOP
③ Operational techniques
Improvement of South China Sea typhoon forecast (TRAMS)
AOP3
AOP5
•
Further improvement of TRAMS model and products
•
Provide TRAMS-9km products relate to typhoon assess
through website
AOP6
AOP7
AOP9
Continue
AOP
③ Operational techniques
Development of regional radar network
AOP3
•
Application of JMA's quality management technique using
statistical method to each of the TMD radar
•
Development of source codes of radar data calibration for
QPE by TMD with technical assistance of JMA
•
Submission of a progress report by TMD. On receipt of the
report, holding a technical meeting at JMA or TMD to
follow up with the progress and to identify a way forward
AOP5
AOP6
AOP7
AOP9
Continue
AOP
③ Operational techniques
Assessment report on the impact of climate change
on tropical cyclone in TC region (TC-AR3）
AOP3
•
Accumulate findings from CMIP5 results and Event
Attribution (EA) studies
AOP5
•
Summarize and assess related research results emerged
•
Collect data of progress of work
•
Make a draft of outline
AOP6
AOP7
AOP9
Continue
TC-AR3
Typhoon Committee (Tropical
Cyclone Climate Change) Assessment Report (3rd)
AOP
③ Operational techniques
Storm surge watch scheme
AOP3
•
To provide storm surge time series forecasts at
more than one point if so requested by Members.
•
To prepare for provision of multiple scenarios of
storm surge forecasts to TC Members.
•
To conduct verification of time series forecasts if
tidal data during past storm surge events are
provided by Members.
AOP5
AOP6
AOP7
AOP9
Continue
AOP
③ Operational techniques
Development of tropical cyclone forecasting
competency
AOP3
•
To develop an outline of tropical cyclone forecasting
competency
AOP5
AOP6
AOP7
AOP9
Continue
AOP
The significant progress of WGM in 2015:
III. PP
 Analysis……
PP2 (Intensity analysis) PP3 (Available data)
 Modeling……
PP1 (G-TCM)
Preliminary Projects (PPs)
① Analysis……
Harmonization of TCs intensity analysis
PP2
•
Continue cyclone by cyclone comparison analysis of CI
numbers.
•
Identify reasons for CI number differences between CMA,
HKO, JTWC, and RSMC Tokyo.
PP3
Continue
PP
① Analysis……
Available data used in operational tropical
cyclone analysis
PP2
•
To investigate the available data in TC region
•
To assess the quality of the available data and try to
develop the techniques to use them in operational tropical
cyclone (intensity and track) analysis.
PP3
Continue
PP
② Modeling……
High resolution tropical cyclone model (G-TCM)
PP1
•
Coordinate with WMO-TLFDP, comparison of (semi-)
operational typhoon model (HWRF and GRAPES-TCM)
•
Practicability and pilot study on the high resolution (≤ 3km)
typhoon model development.
Continue
PP
Implementation status of plans in 2015
POP1
√ POP2
(Seasonal prediction)
AOP1
AOP5
√ POP4
(TCRR)
√ AOP3
(Verification)
√ AOP6
(Radar network)
AOP9
(Typhoon forum)
√ AOP2
(Ensemble Forecast)
√ POP3
(TAPS)
√ AOP4
(TRAMS)
√ AOP7
(3rd AR-TC)
√ AOP8
(SS watch scheme)
(EXOTICA)
√
(H-TCM)
√ PP2
√
(TC intensity analysis)
PP3
(Available data use)
√
(SWFDP-As)
(Competency)
PP1
√
√
√
Part III:
Proposed plans and budget of 2016
•
Some activities (AOP) will be carried out repeatedly in the following years
•
Some projects of which preliminary studies needed to be undertaken

Perennial operating (or routine actions) projects (POPs)

Annual operating projects (AOPs)

Preliminary Projects (PPs)
2016
5 - POP
8 - AOP
POP1
AOP1
Seasonal prediction
(KMA)
POP2
EF
(JMA)
AOP3
Forum
(CMA)
TRAMS
(CMA)
2 - PP
AOP2
×
Verification
(CMA)
PP1
High GRAPES-TCM
(CMA)
AOP4
SWFDP-As
(Viet Nam)
×
AOP5
POP3
TCRR
(CMA)
POP4
TAPS
(KMA)
Radar network
(TMD)
AOP6
TC-AR3
(Macao)
POP5
Verification
(CMA)



AOP8
EXOTICA
(CMA)
AOP7
PP2
TC Intensity analysis
(JMA)
SS watch
(JMA)
AOP9
Competency
(RSMC)
Perennial operating (or routine actions) projects (POPs)
Annual operating projects (AOPs)
Preliminary Projects (PPs)
PP3
Available data use
(CMA)
WGM
2016
5 - POP
8 - AOP
POP1
2 - PP
AOP1
Seasonal prediction
(KMA)
POP2
EF
(JMA)
AOP3
Forum
(CMA)
TRAMS
(CMA)
AOP4
SWFDP-As
(Viet Nam)
AOP5
POP3
TCRR
(CMA)
POP4
TAPS
(KMA)
Radar network
(TMD)
AOP6
TC-AR3
(Macao)
POP5
Verification
(CMA)



AOP8
EXOTICA
(CMA)
AOP7
PP2
TC Intensity analysis
(JMA)
SS watch
(JMA)
AOP9
Competency
(RSMC)
Perennial operating (or routine actions) projects (POPs)
Annual operating projects (AOPs)
Preliminary Projects (PPs)
PP3
Available data use
(CMA)
WGM
2016
5 - POP
8 - AOP
POP1
2 - PP
AOP1
Seasonal prediction
(KMA)
POP2
EF
(JMA)
AOP3
Forum
(CMA)
TRAMS
(CMA)
AOP4
SWFDP-As
(Viet Nam)
AOP5
POP3
TCRR
(CMA)
POP4
TAPS
(KMA)
Radar network
(TMD)
AOP6
TC-AR3
(Macao)
POP5
Verification
(CMA)



AOP8
EXOTICA
(CMA)
AOP7
PP2
TC Intensity analysis
(JMA)
SS watch
(JMA)
AOP9
Competency
(RSMC)
Perennial operating (or routine actions) projects (POPs)
Annual operating projects (AOPs)
Preliminary Projects (PPs)
PP3
Available data use
(CMA)
WGM
2016
5 - POP
8 - AOP
POP1
2 - PP
AOP1
Seasonal prediction
(KMA)
POP2
EF
(JMA)
AOP3
Forum
(CMA)
TRAMS
(CMA)
AOP4
SWFDP-As
(Viet Nam)
AOP5
POP3
TCRR
(CMA)
POP4
TAPS
(KMA)
Radar network
(TMD)
AOP6
TC-AR3
(Macao)
POP5
Verification
(CMA)



AOP8
EXOTICA
(CMA)
AOP7
PP2
TC Intensity analysis
(JMA)
SS watch
(JMA)
AOP9
Competency
(RSMC)
Perennial operating (or routine actions) projects (POPs)
Annual operating projects (AOPs)
Preliminary Projects (PPs)
PP3
Available data use
(CMA)
WGM
2016
5 - POP
8 - AOP
POP1
2 - PP
AOP1
Seasonal prediction
(KMA)
POP2
EF
(JMA)
AOP3
Forum
(CMA)
TRAMS
(CMA)
PP2
AOP4
SWFDP-As
(Viet Nam)
TC Intensity analysis
(JMA)
AOP5
POP3
TCRR
(CMA)
POP4
TAPS
(KMA)
Radar network
(TMD)
AOP6
TC-AR3
(Macao)
POP5
Verification
(CMA)



AOP8
EXOTICA
(CMA)
AOP7
SS watch
(JMA)
AOP9
PP3
Available data use
(CMA)
Competency
(RSMC)
Perennial operating (or routine actions) projects (POPs)
Annual operating projects (AOPs)
Preliminary Projects (PPs)
WGM
2016
Proposal plans ( 5POPs, 8 AOPs and 2 PPs)
budget ……
Plan
Budget ($)
Remark
POP3: TCRR
5,000
Visiting editor (2)
POP4: TAPS
5,000
Training (2p, 2w)
POP5: Verification
3,000
AOP5: Radar network
4,000
(subtotal)
17,000
Special funding request
POP3: TCRR
5,000
Editor board meeting
AOP8: EXOTICCA
5,000
OC meeting (workshop)
11th IWS
10,000
11,000 10,000
total
37,000
Part IV:
Summary & Recommendation
Summary

Members Report (Mete. component)

Members made significant progress in tropical cyclone
monitoring & forecast technical and the implementation of
TC Strategic Plan during 2015

Action plans (4POPs + 9AOPs + 3PPs)

WGM has successfully completed the tasks in 2015
Recommendation

To endorse the proposed WGM plans in 2016 and
the budget at the 48th Session

Proposed plans ( 5POPs + 8 AOPs + 2PPs)
 Budget: $37,000 ($27,000 for 15plans + $10,000 for IWS)

To encourage TC Members:


To request WGM:


To enhance the cooperation by the cross-cutting project
(SSOP-II, EXOTICA, ……) & as participating Member
To carry out post-season verification report on the operational
forecast of tropical cyclones in Committee region in 48th
Session
To request the focal points & AOPs coordinators:

To submit research paper to TCRR (fellowship visitor)
Call for paper……Members & WGs
http://tcrr.typhoon.gov.cn
Thank you for your attention!