The 34th annual Kinder Houston area survey
Transcription
The 34th annual Kinder Houston area survey
THE 34TH ANNUAL KINDER HOUSTON AREA SURVEY Perspectives on a City in Transition Dr. Stephen Klineberg Kinder Houston Area Survey Luncheon April 30, 2015 THE 34TH KINDER HOUSTON AREA SURVEY (2015) Systematic interviews conducted with representative samples of Economic Outlooks the residents from Harris, Fort Bend and Montgomery counties, Interethnic Relations focused on four central topics: County Differences Social Agenda 2 POSITIVE RATINGS OF JOB OPPORTUNITIES IN THE HOUSTON AREA (1982-2015) 100 Percent rating job opportunities as “excellent” or “good” 90 PERCENT GIVING POSITIVE RATINGS 80 71 69 68 70 58 60 50 58 60 48 43 42 35 40 41 30 36 20 25 10 11 0 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 YEAR OF SURVEY 3 Source: 1982-2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research Economic Outlooks 15 THE OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES IN HARRIS COUNTY (FEBRUARY FIGURES, 1982-2015) OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES 10.5 10.1 9.8 90 Negative ratings of job opportunities 9.5 80 70 8.6 8.5 8.4 7.8 60 7.3 7.5 6.8 50 6.8 6.6 6.5 40 6.7 30 5.5 5.7 20 5.1 4.5 4.7 4.0 10 4.3 4.3 3.5 0 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15 YEAR OF SURVEY 4 Source: 1982-2015 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted. © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research Economic Outlooks PERCENT GIVING NEGATIVE RATINGS 100 Official unemployment rates in Harris County THE BIGGEST PROBLEM FACING PEOPLE IN THE HOUSTON AREA TODAY (1982-2015) Traffic 80 71 Economy 70 PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS 70 Crime 60 51 47 50 44 39 40 35 30 30 26 37 31 27 23 16 20 10 15 14 28 26 25 19 21 16 18 20 10 10 0 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15 YEAR OF SURVEY 5 Source: 1982-2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research Economic Outlooks ASSESSMENTS OF TRAFFIC IN THE HOUSTON AREA, AND OF THREE POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS (2009-2015) 100 90 "Over the past three years, has traffic in the Houston area generally gotten better, gotten worse, or has it stayed about the same?" "Which of these proposals would be the best long-term solution to the traffic problems in the Houston area?" 80 PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS 2009 70 60 2011 2013 2015 65 59 53 56 50 42 40 44 43 40 31 31 30 33 33 28 27 27 27 26 24 21 20 16 15 23 12 10 6 0 Worse 6 Same Better Highways Source: 2009-2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research Urbanism Transit Economic Outlooks ASSESSMENTS OF CRIME, AIR POLLUTION, AND THE QUALITY OF LIVING CONDITIONS IN THE HOUSTON AREA (2005-2015) “Very worried” that you or a member of your family will become the victim of a crime. “Very concerned” about the effects of air pollution on your family’s health. Living conditions in the Houston area have been “getting better.” 50% 42% 33% 31% 05 7 07 09 11 13 36% 29% 15 05 07 09 11 13 15 Source: 2005-2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research 38% 34% 37% 05 07 09 11 13 15 Economic Outlooks IMPORTANCE OF POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION (2015) 100 "For a person to be successful in today's world, is it necessary to get an education beyond high school, or are there many ways to succeed with no more than a high school education?" PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS 90 80 70 76 75 68 66 60 53 50 44 40 32 32 30 23 23 20 10 0 Total sample Anglos Blacks Hispanics Asians An education beyond high school is necessary There are many ways to succeed with no more than high school 8 Source: 2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research Economic Outlooks Interethnic Relations THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFORMATIONS OF HARRIS COUNTY (1960-2010) 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 POPULATION IN MILLIONS 4 7.7% Asians 6.7% 4.1% 3 2.1% 15.5% 2 0.8% 9.9% 0.3% 1 6.0% Asians 20.1% 19.8% Latinos Blacks Asians 19.7% Latinos Blacks Asians 22.7% Latinos Blacks 19.1% Asians Asians Latinos Latinos 32.9% 40.8% Latinos Blacks Blacks 18.2% 18.4% Blacks Anglos 73.9% 0 10 1,243,258 Anglos 69.2% 1,741,912 Anglos 62.7% 2,409,547 Anglos 54.0% 2,818,199 Source: U.S. Census. Classifications based on Texas State Data Center Conventions. © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research Anglos 42.1% 3,400,578 33.0% Anglos 4,092,459 Interethnic Relations HARRIS COUNTY TOTAL POPULATION Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 11 1980 Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC. Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research Interethnic Relations HARRIS COUNTY TOTAL POPULATION Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 12 1990 Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC. Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research Interethnic Relations HARRIS COUNTY TOTAL POPULATION Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 13 2000 Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC. Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research Interethnic Relations HARRIS COUNTY TOTAL POPULATION Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 14 2010 Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC. Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research Interethnic Relations PERCENT OF THE POPULATION BY AGE GROUP AND ETHNICITY IN HARRIS COUNTY (2013) Non-Hispanic Whites 79 78 76 76 76 All Others 72 71 70 60 60 49 40 29 21 15 22 24 24 24 28 51 53 47 40 30 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009-2013 ACS 5-year estimates © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research Interethnic Relations ASSESSMENTS OF RACE AND ETHNIC RELATIONS IN THE HOUSTON AREA, BY ETHNICITY (1992-2015) Percent rating ethnic relations as “excellent” or “good” 59% 56% 60% 53% 48% Anglos 46% 48% Latinos 45% 49% 37% 35% 36% 38% Blacks 35% 33% 27% 27% 21% 14% 10% 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: 1992-2015 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research Interethnic Relations ATTITUDES TOWARD IMMIGRANTS IN HARRIS COUNTY (2009-2015) Percent of respondents agreeing 90% 83% 72% 69% 54% 72% 71% 64% 60% 55% 52% For: granting a path to legal citizenship. Admit the same number or more legal immigrants. 59% 47% The new immigration mostly strengthens American culture. 0% 09 17 11 13 15 09 10 11 12 13 Source: 2009-2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research 14 15 09 11 13 Interethnic Relations 15 THE THREE LARGEST COUNTIES IN THE METROPOLITAN REGION Montgomery County Area: 1,077 sq. mi. Population: 485,225 The nine counties: 6.2 million 9,434 sq. mi. Fort Bend County Area: 885 sq. mi. Population: 628,443 Source: ACS 2011-13 Three-Year Estimates. U.S. Census Bureau © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research COUNTY DIFFERENCES Harris County Area: 1,777 sq. mi. Population: 4.26 m ETHNICITY AND EDUCATION IN HOUSTON’S THREE LARGEST COUNTIES (2013) 100% 100% 4 8 10 20 90% 90% 14 10 Adults 25 years and older 22 80% 80% 70% 41 4 60% 60% Asians/Others 50% 40% Graduate or professional degree 27 30 Blacks 28 Anglos Some college, Associate's degree 40% 70 30% 30% 24 25 20% 32 Less than high school 10% 10% 21 12 14 0% 0% Harris Fort Bend (N=4,255,830) (N=628,443) 19 High school graduate 18 20% 36 Bachelor's degree 50% Latinos 18 21 28 70% 24 21 19 Montgomery (N=485,225) Harris Fort Bend Montgomery (N=2,657,083) (N=395,806) (N=313,196) Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2011-2013 ACS 3-year estimates © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research County Differences THE BIGGEST PROBLEM FACING PEOPLE IN THREE COUNTIES (2015) Harris Montgomery Fort Bend 8.0 11.4 10.0 27.8 28.1 18.4 40.4 23.8 21.2 20.9 24.6 16.8 13.0 20.8 14.8 Traffic 20 Crime Economy All other concerns Source: 2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research DK/RF County Differences COUNTY DIFFERENCES IN BELIEFS ABOUT IMMIGRATION AND ETHNIC DIVERSITY (2015) 90 Harris Fort Bend Montgomery 80 70 60 71 70 60 67 63 60 53 63 54 54 49 50 45 40 30 20 10 0 The increasing immigration into The increasing ethnic diversity Favor granting illegal immigrants Ratings of the relations among this country mostly strengthens brought about by immigration is a in U.S. a path to legal citizenship. ethnic groups as either "good" or American culture. good thing. "excellent." 21 Source: 2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research County Differences COUNTY DIFFERENCES IN THE PREFERENCE FOR “WALKABLE URBANISM” (2015) 70 Harris Fort Bend Montgomery 60 54 50 40 49 49 45 39 40 43 45 43 38 42 38 30 20 10 0 Prefer area with mix of Improving public transportation developments, including homes, is the best solution to traffic shops, and restaurants. problems. 22 Percent who own a bicycle. Source: 2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research Percent wishing they could ride a bicycle more often. County Differences COUNTY DIFFERENCES IN PARTY AFFILIATION (2015) 100% 90% 32 80% 41 53 70% 60% 23 18 50% Republicans Independent/Other/DK 40% 18 Democrats 30% 20% 45 41 29 10% 0% Harris 23 Fort Bend Montgomery Source: 2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research County Differences COUNTY DIFFERENCES IN PERSPECTIVES ON PUBLIC POLICY ISSUES (2015) 90 Harris 80 Fort Bend Montgomery 75 70 66 62 60 56 50 50 45 47 40 40 37 28 30 31 30 20 10 0 Government is trying to do too much that should be left to individuals and businesses. 24 "Very concerned" about Favor a law making it more difficult environmental issues in general. for a woman to obtain an abortion. Source: 2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research Favor the death penalty for persons convicted of murder. County Differences SOCIAL AGENDA ANTI-ABORTION AND PRO-CHOICE IN HARRIS COUNTY (1999-2015) 100% 63% 61% 59% Opposed to “a law that would make it more difficult for a woman to obtain an abortion.” 58% Believe that “abortion is morally wrong.” 0% 1999 26 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Source: 1999-2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research 2015 Social Agenda SUPPORT FOR GAY RIGHTS (1991-2015) 70 Agree: "Marriages between homosexuals should be given the same legal status as heterosexual marriages." PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS 60 Favor: "Homosexuals being legally permitted to adopt children." 51 49 50 47 41 40 42 43 32 31 30 47 45 38 37 40 51 43 37 35 28 27 35 27 20 17 10 91 93 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 YEAR OF SURVEY 27 Source: 1991-2015 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research Social Agenda SUPPORT FOR THE DEATH PENALTY (1993-2015) 80 75 66 70 66 PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS 60 67 58 61 58 62 57 60 56 50 40 34 41 39 30 37 32 20 30 28 Favor "the death penalty for persons convicted of murder." The death penalty, and not life imprisonment, "should generally be the penalty for persons convicted of first-degree murder." 10 0 93 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 YEAR OF SURVEY 28 Source: 1993-2015 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research Social Agenda CENTRAL FINDINGS FROM THE 2015 SURVEY Ratings of job opportunities have continued to Economic Outlooks improve, despite the recent slump in oil prices, and traffic has become the predominant concern. After a downturn in ratings of ethnic relations, area Interethnic Relations residents this year are more optimistic about the burgeoning diversity and more positive in their views of immigrants. Despite county contrasts in ethnicity, density, County Differences education and politics, there are only slight differences in assessments of diversity and in the preference for “walkable urbanism.” Area residents are personally opposed to abortion Social Agenda but they support the right to choose, and they are rethinking their views on same-sex marriage and the death penalty. kinder.rice.edu [email protected] 713-348-4132 /InstituteForUrbanResearch @RiceKinderInst