Kjell Aleklett - Energimyndigheten

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NOG, Nätverket Olja & Gas
ÅF:s huvudkontor, Stockholm, 9 september, 2013
Kjell Aleklett
Professor in Global Energy Systems
President of ASPO International
Uppsala University, Sweden
[email protected]
www.fysast.uu.se/ges
Blog: aleklett.wordpress.com
Department of Earth Sciences
Kjell Aleklett
Globala energiresurser
E = m c2
Förnybar energi
Politiskt korrekt
Bioenergi,
sol vind och vatten
(geotermis energi)
Global andel ~15%
Fossilabränslen
och aska från en
supernova
Politiskt ej
korrekt
Kol, olja och
Naturgas
uran
Global andel ~ 85%
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Tillgängliga energikällor
• Uran och Torium för kärnkraft
• Fossila bränslen; kol, olja och naturgas
• Biomassa: Skogsråvara, energiskog, rester från jordbruket
• Torv
• Vattenkraft
• Väderrelatera energi: Sol-, vind- och vågenergi
• Avfall
• Värme från luft, vatten och mark
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Det globala energisystemet
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* Transformation of fossil fuels from primary energy into
a form that can be used in the final consuming sectors.
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Fossil fuel and other energies
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Sedan 1970 fram till 2010 har transportsektorns
energibehov ökat med 74%. Det motsvarar en
årlig ökning med 1.4%
Under samma tid har Sveriges tillväxt varit
ungefär 2% per år.
Slutsats: Ingen tillväxt utan ökade transporter
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What are important for today’s students?
Students in Energy Systems at Uppsala University, Sweden
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What are important for today’s students?
Students in Energy Systems at Uppsala University, Sweden
Food three times per day
Shelter
To make money
Social relations
Climate
Security
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Our society needs oil !!!
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Our Daily Barrel
We have a liquids problem
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Deferent types of hydrocarbons listed as oil
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What is oil?
• Conventional oil
• Crude oil.
• Oil produced as shales oil.
• Unconventional oil
• Bitumen and extra heavy oil from Canada’s oil sands.
• Extra heavy oil from Venezuela’s Orinoco belt.
• Oil produced from oil shales (kerogen shales)
• Conversion into oil
• Oil produced from coal by CTL methods (coal-to-liquids)
• Oil produced from natural gas by GTL methods (gas-toliquids)
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Reserves?
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World Oil Supply in 2010 according to
International Energy Agency
• Total liquids
87.3 million barrels per day
• Ethanol
1.8 million barrels per day
• Processing gains 2.3 million barrels per day
• Total oil
83.2 million barrels per day
2007
2008
2009
IEA: 82.2 Mb/d 82.8 Mb/d 81.3 Mb/d
BP: 81.5 Mb/d 82.0 Mb/d 80.3 Mb/d
2010
83.2 Mb/d
82.1 Mb/d
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When was oil produced?
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Sediment deposit for oil and gas
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There must be places where we can find more oil
endowment - USGS
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Oil and natural gas are produced in
petroleum systems
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Oil and Gas in the North Sea
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Oil Production in the North Sea
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ASPO – The Association for the Study of Peak Oil&Gas
Med Peak Oil avses den tidpunkt då produktionen av olja
i ett område eller globalt inte längre kan öka utan går
över till en platå eller minskar. Peak Oil betyder inte att
oljan tar slut men att ökningen av produktionen tar slut
på grund av att produktionen sinar.
"The term Peak Oil refers the maximum rate of the
production of oil in any area under consideration, recognizing
that it is a finite natural resource, subject to depletion."
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World primary demand by scenario
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Peak Oil - 2002
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New Policies Scenario WEO-2012
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Prediction for 2030
WEO 2004 – 121 Mb/d, WEO 2006 – 116 Mb/d
WEO 2008 – 106 Mb/d, WEO 2010 – 96 Mb/d
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Statoil and Peak Oil
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World Energy Outlook 2008-decline
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Breakeven of 360 non-producing & recent
onstream oilfields from Goldman Sachs
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The Elephants – The Giant oilfields
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Number and size of
oilfields
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Jack 2 –
Kebnekaise and
Mount Everest
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Map of oil regions in the Arctic's
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Estimated oil north of the Arctic Circle
Prudhoe Bay
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Oljeproduktion i polarområdet
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US scenario, not forcast
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The USA oil production
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Bakken 12-month Cumulative Production Map
• Map shows wells with first production
in 2006 or later.
• Green areas indicate break-even or
greater production volumes
• Most production on the map is from
the Three Forks reservoir.
• Indicates that production is from
discreet fields.
Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.
ASPO USA 2012 Conference
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KjellSlide
Aleklett
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Bakken Shale Annual Base Replacement
Bakken Shale Static Decline Profile
Oil Production
Number of Wells
350,000
3000
300,000
2500
2000
200,000
1500
150,000
Number of Wells
Barrles of Oil Per Day
250,000
1000
100,000
500
•
•
•
•
Oct-11
Jun-11
Oct-10
Feb-11
Jun-10
Oct-09
Feb-10
Jun-09
Oct-08
Feb-09
Jun-08
Oct-07
Feb-08
Jun-07
Oct-06
Feb-07
Jun-06
Oct-05
Feb-06
Jun-05
Oct-04
Feb-05
Jun-04
Oct-03
Feb-04
Jun-03
Oct-02
Feb-03
Jun-02
Oct-01
Feb-02
Jun-01
Oct-00
Feb-01
0
Jun-00
50,000
0
Data from DI
38% annual decline rate.
Must replace 182,000 bo/d each year to maintain supply.
That means approximately 1,488 new producing wells/year at a cost of ~ $17 billion.
1130 new producing wells were added in last 12 months ($13 billion).
Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.
Houston SIPES Continuing Education Seminar
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KjellSlide
Aleklett
Flaring
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Production of crude oil
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Giant oilfields in Saudi Arabia
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The laws of
physics are
stronger then the
laws of economy
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Oil (tar) sand production
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Oil sand production
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“Crash Program Production” from
Canadian Oil Sands, (Energy Policy, 2007)
7000
Thousand Bbls Per Day
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050
Year
Total Mining, Crash Program
Total In Situ, Crash Program
Bengt Söderbergh, Fredrik Robelius, Kjell Aleklett
Energy Policy 35 (2007) 1931–1947
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5 Mb/d - The size of the tap in 2030
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Data by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.
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The two new ”taps” from Alberta
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Enbridge Northern
Gateway pipeline
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The Yinka Dene Alliance
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Includes 6 First Nations (Nadleh Whut'en, Nak'azdli, Takla Lake,
1
Saik'uz, and Wet'suwet'en) in northern
BC who have banned the
Enbridge Northern Gateway Pipelines from their territories.
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The US “tap” –
The Keystone
pipelines
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Capacity
2025: 2.4 Mb/d
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Oronoco oilfield
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New Policies Scenario WEO-2012
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Prediction of NGL, Unconventional and Tight oil
2011: 18 Mb/d
2035: 34 Mb/d (+16 Mb/d)
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New future unconventional oil production
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Predicted demand from the IEA scenarios
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The Uppsala scenarios and
production according to BP
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2007: Thesis by Fredrik Robelius
and data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy
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Energy and Economic Growth
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Before the oil age, Sweden 1946
When I was born in 1945, none of the four small farms in my little Swedish
village used oil for anything. Ten years later, the oil age had arrived: we
had replaced coal with oil for heating, my father had bought a motorcycle,
and tractors were seen in the fields.
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Energy in Sweden during 100 years
TWh
700
600
500
A factor of five
Nuclear
400
300
Oil and gas
200
Hydro
100
Coal
0
1900
1920
1940
Bio
1960
1974
1982
1990
1998
From 1945 to 1970, Sweden increased its use of energy by a factor of five, or
nearly 7 percent per year for 25 years. This journey into the oil age transformed
Sweden from a rather poor country into the third wealthiest country (per capita)
in the world. Ninety percent of the energy increase came from oil. Cheap oil
made Sweden rich.
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GDP per capita
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“Business as Usual” and Oil Demand
World Energy Outlook 2008,
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“Business as Usual” and Oil Demand
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30 m
55 m
Exponentiell tillväxt och
Globen i Stockholm
340.000 liter
280.000 liter
110 m
En vattendroppe har en diameter mellan 2 och 4 millimeter och det motsvarar
en 1.0 10-8 kubikmeter. Det betyder att en liter vatten har 100 000 droppar.
Exempel på exponentiell tillväxt: Minut 1 – 1 droppe, minut 2 – 2 droppar,
minut 3 – 4 droppar, minut 4 – 8 droppar, minut 5 – 16 droppar osv.
När är en hink som är 11 liter full?
När måste du lämna läktaren som är 30 meter upp i Globen?
När är Globen helt vattenfylld?
Kjell Aleklett
30 m
55 m
Exponentiell tillväxt och
Globen i Stockholm
340.000 liter
280.000 liter
110 m
En vattendroppe har en diameter mellan 2 och 4 millimeter och det motsvarar
en 1.0 10-8 kubikmeter. Det betyder att en liter vatten har 100 000 droppar.
Exempel på exponentiell tillväxt: Minut 1 – 1 droppe, minut 2 – 2 droppar,
minut 3 – 4 droppar, minut 4 – 8 droppar, minut 5 – 16 droppar osv.
När är en hink som är 11 liter full? Svar: 41 minuter
När måste du lämna läktaren som är 30 meter upp i Globen? Svar: 55 minuter
När är Globen helt vattenfylld? Svar: 57 minuter
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30 m
55 m
Exponentiell tillväxt och
Globen i Stockholm
340.000 liter
280.000 liter
110 m
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Fördubblingstakt
Antal år
ln(2) x 100
69
till
=
=
fördubbling ökningstakt(%) x %
Exempel: Ökning med 14 %
Antal år = 69/14 = 5 år
År:
2002
Antal:
250
Per 5 år:
2007
500
250
2012
1000
500
2017
2000
1000
2022
4000
2000
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IEA prediction for 2030
WEO 2004 – 121 Mb/d
WEO 2006 – 116 Mb/d
WEO 2008 – 106 Mb/d
WEO 2010 – 96 Mb/d
WEO 2012 – 86? Mb/d
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Daqing - China
”Petroleum has a compact relationship with a
countries political, economical and military
strength.”
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Chokepoints
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World Economic Forum Annual
Meeting 2013 in Davos
Christine Lagarde, IMF,
the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund
Megatrends shaping our future: Increasing vulnerability
from resource scarcity and climate change, with the
potential for major social and economic disruption.
Peak Oil
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Future GDP and Peak Oil
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Michael Kümhof
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April 2013 - Peak Oil conference in Doha,
Qatar: The Dictator’s Survival Probability
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Time is running out
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Oil fields in Iraq
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Oil fields in Iraq
Let us squeeze in 100 Gb
of oil into one bottle of
Champagne.
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“We are drinking oil!”
If 100 Gb of oil is squeezed into one
bottle of Champagne we have
consumed 11 bottles.
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The global reserve of crude oil is
8 (9) bottles of Champagne
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Where to find the crude oil
or the 8 bottles of Champagne
?
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The global consumption per year is
30 billion barrels of oil
One bottle of Champagne is equal to
the consumption in three years and
four months.
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The USA is addicted to oil
President Bush, Capitol Hill, 2006:
“We have a serious problem. America is
addicted to oil”
From the beginning
the nature had put
two bottles of crude
oil in the ground in
USA. They are just
now sipping on the
last glass.
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The global reserve of crude oil is
8 bottles of Champagne
We will discover two more bottles of
Champagne
We also have three or four more bottles
“sparkling wine” in Canada and Venezuela
and shale oil in the USA.
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The global reserve of crude oil is
8 bottles of Champagne
We have in total 11 bottles (8+3) to empty and 3 more to
find, in total 14 bottles. If it takes 3 1/3 years to empty one
bottle everyone should be aware of that the party is over
and that we need to sobering up!
+
+
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World Oil
May 2012
“This book should be required
reading for anyone seriously
interested in the future world
energy market and economy,
especially politicians and
policymakers. “
Kjell Aleklett