Power Systems Business Operation
Transcription
Power Systems Business Operation
Power Systems Business Operation May 27,2008 Yoshiaki Tsukuda Executive Vice President, General Manager, Power Systems Headquarters Global Primary Energy Consumption Forecasts by Region Growing Energy Demand in Asia, Centering on China and India Global CO2 emission forecasts Source: IEEJ 2007 data Global Converted to oil,millions of tons 7,000 Average annual growth rate 6,000 4,000 20052005-2030 Global 1.9% 1.9% Asia 4.5% 2.9% North America 1.1% 1.0% 3.2 billion tons Asia North America 3,000 Asia 2005 3.2 billion tons ↓ 2030 6.5 billion tons (Up 100%) OECD members in Europe 2,000 1,000 1,200 2005 10.3 billion tons ↓ 2030 16.5 billion tons (Up 60%) 1,000 CO2 emissions (100 million ton) 5,000 19801980-2005 6.5 billion tons 117 billion tons Global emissions without actions to control CO2 800 Advanced countries 600 2004 data CO2 emissions: 24.6 billion tons CO2 concentration: 377 ppm 400 Developing countries 74 billion tons Developing countries Stabilized at 550 ppm NonNon-OECD members in Europe Central/South America Middle East Stabilized at 480 ppm 200 Africa 0 1971 1980 1990 2000 Advanced countries 33 billion tons Oceania 2005 2010 2020 2030 0 1959 Eastern Europe + former Soviet Union 1975 2000 Emissions in 2005 to become 50% of the current level 2025 2050 2075 Eastern Europe + former Soviet Union 2100 Source: data prepared by quoting IPCC forecasts 2 Demand Forecast for Major Power Generation Facilities • Demand for GT and GTCC predicted to grow steadily at a rate of around 50GW/year. • Demand for conventional thermal power generation facilities will decline because of the CO2 emissions issue. Nuclear power generation facilities will replace them over the long term. • In renewable energy, demands for wind turbines and photovoltaic power generation facilities are expected to expand rapidly. 200 North American American GT bubble (GW/year) Chinese bubble 100 CC +GT GT Power generation capacity growth 150 Conventional Thermal Power Wind Power Actual Forecast Solar Power GT+GTCC 50 Conventional Thermal Power Hydro Power 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 Nuclear Power 2020 Other 2025 3 Activities for Efficient Energy Use and CO2 Reduction Annual CO2 emissions worldwide Forecasts (without further actions to control emissions) emissions) ・ Promotion of energyenergy-saving actions ・ Reduction in fossil fuel use ・ Clean coal technology ・ Coal use as an oil substitute ・ CO2 capture and storage ・ Greater use of nuclear power and renewable energy ・ Greater use of carboncarbon-free electricity Annual CO2 emissions for “halving CO2 emissions in 2050” 2050” Present 2020 2030 2040 2050 4 MHI Portfolio for Power Generation Coal-fired thermal power Nuclear Energy GTCC Wind turbines Focused on existing technologies Photovoltaic Focused on new technologies Business assessment MHI activity Stability in fuel supply Low CO2 emissions Relatively small environmental load Relatively short construction period Low CO2 emissions Short construction period Low CO2 emissions Short construction period High CO2 emissions CCS Feasibility Public acceptance Long construction period and rise in material cost Secure of inexpensive fuels Grid restriction Need for subsidies Site restrictions Need for subsidies Emergence of new technologies Technology transfer to China and India Verification of IGCC technology Orders in the United States Production increase, anticipating demand Cooperation with Chinese and South Korean manufacturers Development of 1700ºC class gas turbine Production increase for the U.S.market Development of offshore wind turbines Development of proprietary thinfilm technologies Mass production achievement and production increase External factors Government policies for global warming, surge in fuel price, soaring construction material price, electricity demand (business conditions) and technical innovations MHI’s strengths • Business operations based on proprietary technologies and management dedicated to operation of products to satisfy electricity demand • Company-wide responses to changes in external factors (resource optimization) The degree of contribution by each power generation method in fulfilling electricity demand remain unclear. 5 Action List Greatly expanding business scale leveraging growing global efforts against global warming Expanding the scale and revenue of the business by accelerating the change from conventional thermal power to natural energy (Accelerating the development of major products, bolstering production capacity) Breakdown of production (sales) The base load as a key business; responding to coal gasification Numbers in brackets are indexes (100 for 2007) 【95】 Secure short-term revenue by responding to the rapid expansion 技術、アライアンスでシェア拡大 of the market. Others 【350】 Conventional Natural energies アフターサービスの拡大 Increase market share through technologies and alliances. Expand after-sales service. 【160】 GTCC 2007 2010 2012 2007 2010 2012 Establishing a 30-unit/year production system Building a 36-50 unit/year production system Developing an ultrahigh-temperature (1700ºC) gas turbine Bolstering the after-sales services system Establishing a 2,600MW production capacity Establishing a 1,600MW production capacity Developing offshore wind turbines Considering a structure for additional production Establishing a 130MW production capacity Gas turbines Wind turbines Solar cells GTCC Natural energies Domestic demonstration equipment Developing facilities to produce commercial equipment Realizing overseas commercial plants IGCC : Integrated Coal Gasification Combined Cycle IGCC Conventional 6 Global GTCC Operations: Activities Since 2007 Order received from TGK-4 in Russia for one M701F GT unit M701F begins operation at Anshan Iron & Steel in China in 2007 M251 begins operation at Lianyuan Iron & Steel in China in 2007 Viridian M701F begins operation in Ireland in 2007 M701D begins operation at Maanzan Iron & Steel in China in 2007 Order received from NUON in the Netherlands for 3 M701F GTCC systems Order received from IUD in Hungary for M701D BFG-burning GTCC Order received from WDEPC in Egypt for four M701F units M701F begins operation at Qianwan Power Plant in China in 2007 M501G begins operation at PGE in the United States in 2007 Order received from Taiyuan Iron & Steel in China for two M251 units Order received from Korea Western Power/KDHC for two M501G units and two M501F units M501F begins operation at ARAMCO in Saudi Arabia in 2007 Order received from PLN in Indonesia for three M701F units M701G2 begins operation in line 1 of Kawasaki Thermal Power Plant of Tokyo Electric Power in 2007 Order received from Georgia Power in the United States for six M501G GT units M501F begins operation at KDHC in South Korea in 2007 M501D begins operation at POSCO in South Korea in 2007 M701F begins operation at RPC Ratchaburi in Thailand in 2008 Order received from Alinta in Australia for one M701DA GT unit M701F begins operation at Genesis in New Zealand in 2007 M701F begins operation at San Isidro II in Chile in 2008 M501G begins operation at Datang plant of Taiwan Power in 2007 Average share for the past three years Achieving the target share of 20% Others, 6% • Series of orders received from advanced countries in North America, Europe and others for 1500ºC-class G units MHI, 8% Alstom, 11% GE, 46% Siemens, 29% MHI 20% • Expansion of blast furnace gas-fired GTCC from China to Europe • Launch of marketing activities in licensed markets • Launch of business activities in Russia and other new markets • Expansion of the maintenance business following successive operational launch of delivered units 7 Long-Term Plan for Increasing the Efficiency of Thermal Power Generation (LHV %) 75 Aiming to increase the efficiency of thermal power generation (iii) (iii) GTCC GTCC ++ SOFC SOFC ((Natural Natural gas) gas) 70 (i) (i) Ultra-high Ultra-high Temperature Temperature Plant Gross Efficiency 65 60 Gas ºC) (1700 Gas Turbine Turbine (1700º (1700ºC) (ii) (ii) ++ (iii) (iii) IGCC IGCC ++ SOFC SOFC (ii) (ii) IGCC IGCC (Coal (Coal Gasification) Gasification) GTCC GTCC (Natural (Natural gas) gas) (iii) (iii) GTCC GTCC ++ SOFC SOFC (Hybrid (Hybrid Cycle) Cycle) 55 (ii) (ii) IGCC IGCC (iv) (iv) Advanced Advanced Cycles Cycles ・・Carbon Carbon Capture Capture 50 45 (i) -Temperature (i) Ultrahigh Ultrahigh-Temperature Gas c) Gas Turbine Turbine (1700 (1700 ººc) USC USC (coal) (coal) ・・Nuclear Nuclear Gas (PBMR) Gas Turbine Turbine(PBMR) 40 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 IGCC: Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle SOFC: Solid Oxide Fuel Cell USC: Ultra Super critical pressure Coal-fired plant PBMR: Pebble Bed Modular Reactor 8 Development of 1700ºC-class Gas Turbine (National Project) EGR ➣ Completion of component development (2004 to 2008) Air-fuel mixture ➣ Application of component technology (2008 to 2011) Air ➣ Target of efficiency: 62% LHV or higher (2) Higher Cooling Technologies (3) Lower Thermal Conductivity:TBC (5) High Loaded, High Efficiency Turbine (6) Ultra-high Temperature Material (1) Exhaust Gas Recirculation System (EGR) (4) High Pressure Ratio, High Efficiency Compressor 2005 2010 Component Development (2004 to 2008) Schedule for 1700ºC GT development Application of Component Technology (2008 to 2011) 2015 Actual Engine Design & Development ・ Application starts with existing lowlow-risk 1500º 1500ºC units (in 2007) Actual Engine Verification CombinedCombined-cycle power generation When 1700ºC GTCC power generation ratio is raised to 30%, annual CO2 emissions by Japan fall approximately 3% ・ CombinedCombined-cycle LNG power generation of the CO2 recovery type using EGR 9 Clean Coal Technology <IGCC> Approx. Approx.11% 11%reduction reductionin inCO CO22emission, emission, compared with BTG. compared with BTG. Demonstration plant at Nakoso in Japan Clean Coal Power R&D Co., LTD Features of MHI IGCC Gasifier (1) Air-blown gasification HRSG Coal (2) Dry coal feed (3) Water wall structure (4) Low-calorie gas firing GT ➣ Construction Launch: Aug. 2004 ➣ Demonstration Run: Sep. 2007~ Central control room GT/ST Gas clean-up facility Nakoso Nakoso <Advanced cycle> > IGCC IGCC with with CO CO22 capture capture Nagasaki Takasago Tokyo 10 IGCC with CO2 Capture ➣ Coal gas is separated into CO2 and H2. ➣ Separated CO2 is captured and stored underground. ➣ H2-based gas after CO2 capture is burned with a gas turbine for generating electricity. CO2 removal (CO+H2O→CO2+H2) CO2 comp. CO2 storage Gasifier Coal Underground CO2 isolation Gas purification CO2 Shift CO2 Capture Oxygen Chemical products use CO2 Steam turbine Air separation Air Air Gus Turbine Stack HRSG System System integration integration including including CO CO22 capture capture is is performed performed by by the the entire entire Mitsubishi Mitsubishi Group, Group, and and verification verification is is conducted conducted at at feasible feasible locations locations in in Japan Japan and and abroad. abroad. 11 Clean Coal Technology <BFG※-firing GTCC> ※Blast Approx. Approx.22% 22%reduction reductionin inCO2 CO2emission, emission, compared with BTG. compared with BTG. Furnace Gas Ironworks Coal Blast oven Coke oven Full view of 300MW plant 3,000 25 20 2,000 Output 15 Units 10 1,000 5 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Total plant output (MW) Number of delivered units 30 12 Wind Turbine Business Market growth will continue in North America in the immediate future. MHI will expand operations in markets centering on North America. Wind turbine market forecasts (GW/year) Supply record in USA Oregon Oregon Area Area Condon: Condon: 600kW 600kW × × 83 83 units units (’01) (’01) Combine: Combine: 1000kW 1000kW (A) (A) × × 41 41 units units (’01) (’01) Klondike: Klondike: 2400kW 2400kW × × 11 units(’08) units(’08) Total Total 93.2MW 93.2MW 125units 125units 60 60 60 50 Tehachapi Tehachapi California California Area Area Oasis :: 1000kW Oasis 1000kW xx 60 60 units units (’04) (’04) Mojave’99 Mojave’99 :600kW :600kW × × 30 30 units units (’99) (’99) Morwind Morwind :600kW :600kW × × 29 29 units units (’99) (’99) Mogul :500kW Mogul :500kW × × 88 units units (’96) (’96) Total Total 99.4MW 99.4MW 127 127 units units 50 40 40 30 Wyoming Wyoming Area Area Foot Foot Creek Creek Ⅰ: Ⅰ: 600kW 600kW × × 69 69 units units (’99) (’99) Foot Foot Creek Creek Ⅱ: Ⅱ: 600kW 600kW × × 33 units units (’99) (’99) Foot Foot Creek Creek Ⅳ: Ⅳ: 600kW 600kW × × 28 28 units units (’00) (’00) Rock Rock RiverⅠ RiverⅠ :1000kW :1000kW × × 50 50 units units (’01) (’01) Total Total 110MW 110MW 150 150 units units Altamont Altamont Mesa Mesa California California Area Area Buena Buena Vista: Vista: 1000kW 1000kW (A) (A) xx 38 38 units units (’06) (’06) Total Total 38MW 38MW 38 38 units units 30 20 MPS MPS Warehouse Warehouse Hub Hub (National (National Parts Parts Inventory) Inventory) 20 10 10 0 2007 Europe 欧州 2010 North 北米 America Asia アジア 2012 New New Mexico Mexico Area Area Caprock: 1000kW Caprock: 1000kW (A) (A) ×80 ×80 units units (’04) (’04) San San Juan Juan Mesa Mesa :1000kW :1000kW (A)×120units (A)×120units (’05) (’05) Aragonne Aragonne Mesa: Mesa: 1000kW 1000kW (A) (A) xx 90 90 units units (’06) (’06) Total Total 290MW 290MW 290 290 units units Colorado Colorado Area Area Cedar Cedar Creek Creek :: 1000kW(A) 1000kW(A) × × 221 221 units units (’07) (’07) Total Total 221MW 221MW 221 221 units units Iowa Iowa Area Area Century Century & & Intrepid Intrepid 1000kW(A) 1000kW(A) × × 50 50 units units (’05) (’05) Total Total 50MW 50MW Texas Texas Area Area White White Deer: Deer: 1000kW 1000kW × × 80 80 units units (’01) (’01) Brazos: 1000kW Brazos: 1000kW (A) (A) ×160 ×160 units units (’03) (’03) Sweetwater Sweetwater :1000kW :1000kW (A) (A) ×135 ×135 units units (’06) (’06) Roscoe :1000kW Roscoe :1000kW (A) (A) ×209 ×209 units units (’08) (’08) Goat Goat Mountain:1000kW Mountain:1000kW (A) (A) ×80 ×80 units units (’08) (’08) Total 664units Total 664MW 664MW 664units MPS MPS Los Los Angeles Angeles Office Office (Wind (Wind Business Business Group) Group) MPS MPS Headquarter Headquarter (Orlando,Florida) (Orlando,Florida) MPS MPS Training Training Center Center and and National National Parts Parts Inventory Inventory (be (be in in the the planning planning stage) stage) Other その他 Palm Palm Springs Springs California California Area Area Mountain Mountain ViewⅠ: ViewⅠ: 600kW 600kW × × 74 74 units units (’01) (’01) Mountain Mountain ViewⅡ: ViewⅡ: 600kW 600kW × × 37 37 units units (’01) (’01) Dillon Dillon :1000kW :1000kW (A) (A) ×45 ×45 units units (2007) (2007) (’08) (’08) Total 156 Total 111.6MW 111.6MW 156 units units VienTek VienTek Blade Blade Factory Factory Supply Record in USA and M& S Organization Total: 1877.2 MW / 1821 units (by beginning of 2008) (Excluding 250kW turbines) 50units 50units Texas Texas Gulf Gulf Area Area (New (New Installations Installations ’08) ’08) Penescal Penescal (TPO#1): (TPO#1): 2400kW 2400kW ×42 ×42 units units (’08) (’08) Penescal Penescal (TPO (TPO #2): #2): 2400kW 2400kW ×42 ×42 units units (’08) (’08) Texas :: 2400kW Texas Gulf Gulf 2400kW ×118 ×118 units units (’08) (’08) Total 664units Total 485MW 485MW 664units 13 Wind Turbine Business The 2.4 MW model has been in great demand. MHI bas been expanding production capacity. MHI’s production capacity 92/95m (GW/year) 3 2.5 2 1.5 Outline of 2.4MW model 1 0.5 0 2007 2010 2012 Rated output 2.4MW Rotor diameter 92m/95m Hub height 70m/80m Pitch control Individual pitch control Yaw control Active control Sales performance Orders received for more than 1,000 units 14 Development of Offshore Wind Turbines ・ Installation of offshore wind turbines is expected to grow to take advantage of favorable wind conditions. Fundamental technologies are being developed in Japan and other countries. ・ MHI is the world’s only manufacturer involved in both the wind turbine and shipbuilding (marine structure) businesses. MHI will leverage its overall technological capabilities to deliver world-class offshore wind turbines. Offshore wind turbines in Europe (mounted on towers stood from the ocean floor: other companies) 出典:http://www.middelgrunden.dk Example of offshore wind turbines mounted on a floating platform (Tokyo University) Coastal area [Mounted on a floating platform] 15 Photovoltaic Business Thin-film solar cells have gathered a lot of attention recently as a competitively-priced technology. ・The market is expanding at an annual rate of 30-40%. Crystalline PV have been dominant, but thin-film PV have gathered a lot of attention with their competitive prices and significant potential for further efficiency improvement in the future. PV market forecasts (GW/year) 12 10 8 4 Focusing on thin-film PV ahead of competitors, MHI has begun to introduce new microcrystalline tandem PV to the market. 2 Outline of microcrystalline tandem solar cells 0 ・ Large size (1.4m x 1.1m) 6 2007 2010 Crystalline solar cells 2012 ・ High conversion efficiency (up 30% from prior MHI cells) Thin-film solar cells ・ Silicon use reduced to approx. 1/100 compared with crystalline cells 16 Photovoltaic Business Demand is expanding in the European and other markets. <Germany> 29,629kW PV supply record in Europe (through 2007) Major largelarge-scale PV plants ・Waltenhofen 400kW (2004) <Total supply to Europe> 39,655kW ・Buttenwiesen 1,000kW (2004) <France> 80kW <Spain> 9,426kW <Italy> 440kW <Greece> 80kW Major largelarge-scale PV plants ・Toledo 1,400kW (2007) 17 Photovoltaic Business New PV has been in great demand, and production capacity expansion is being considered. Execute the investment needed to raise the thin-film PV share to approximately 10%. MHI’s production capacity (including plan) (GW/year) 12 300 300 10 250 250 10% 6 4 2 0 2007 2010 Crystalline solar cells 2012 Production volume: MW/year 8 200 200 100MW 100MW Microcrystalline 微結晶第2 No. 1 Microcrystalline 微結晶第1 No. 2 Amorphous アモルファス 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 2006 H18 2007 H19 2008 H20 2009 H21 2010 H22 2011 H23 2012 H24 Thin-film solar cells 18 Energy Value Chain The Power Systems Headquarters are performing important roles in energy conversion technologies. In addition to wind turbines and photovoltaic power generation, the Headquarters are focusing on new technologies in such fields as IGCC and lithium batteries. Next-generation technologies Uranium Alternative Fuels Renewable energy Fuel Natural gas Coal/Petroleum Action for the environment CTL/GTL Denitration (Machinery & Steel Structures) (Power Systems) Desulfurization Energy conversion Atomic power reactor Wind Turbines (Power Systems) (Power Systems) Photovoltaic (Machinery & Steel Structures) GTCC (Power Systems) IGCC (Power Systems) (Power Systems) Biomass Geothermal (Power Systems) (Machinery & Steel Structures) CO2 recovery (Machinery & Steel Structures) Fuel Cells (Power Systems) Lithium batteries Conventional power plant (Power Systems) (Power (Power Systems) Systems) EOR (Machinery & Steel Structures) CO2 storage (Machinery & Steel Structures) Electric power Use Turbo Chiller (Air-Con & Refrigeration Systems) Seawater desalting (Power Systems) CTL: Coal to Liquid Hybrid cars Electric cars GTL: Gas to Liquid Automobiles EOR : Enhanced Oil Recovery 19 Roadmap for Next-Generation Technologies Item IGCC Seawater desalination 2008 FS Fuel cells Development Thermal Solar power Nextgeneration cells 2020 Commercialization Operational expansion Construction of pre-mass production plants and sample shipment Wave power 2015 Verification test Establishment of facilities for producing commercial models Lithium batteries Offshore wind turbines Period 2010 Design Manufacture and installation Technological development Development Development Pre-mass production Commercialization Manufacture of test models Pre-mass production Production of commercial models Verification test Test models Verification and market cultivation Commercialization Test production of pre-mass production models and Commercialization long-term verification Long-term testing at verification facilities and market expansion Construction of pre-mass production plants Commercialization Commercialization 20 MPS: Enhancing Global business Structure with Three Bases (MPSs) Dongfang Gas Turbine (Partner/Turbine manufacturing) ATLA (JV/GT service) TianLing Energy Technology Wartsilla (Partner/DG license) (JV/Engineering) JV in Nanjing Manufacturing Engineering Service Harbin (JV/GT service) MPSE MPS (Partner/Turbine and boiler manufacturing) Shenyang Pump Engineering (JV/Pump manufacturing) Cormetec Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction A-TEC (Partner/Engineering) Hangzhou Steam Turbine (Partner/Turbine manufacturing) L&T (JV/BTG manufacturing) MPSS (Subsidiary/GT service ) INITEC (Partner/Engineering) (JV/Denitration equipment manufacturing) (Partner/Turbine manufacturing) MHI JV in Guangzhou Vien Tek (JV/GT service) CTCI (Partner/Engineering) Cerrey E Center in India (Subsidiary/Engineering) (JV/Boiler manufacturing) MTS (Subsidiary/Engineering) OSC (Subsidiary/GT service base) POSSI (JV/GT service) MPSA (JV/Wind turbine manufacturing) MPSAP CBC (Subsidiary/Boiler manufacturing) MPSE territory MPSAP territory MPSA territory 21 Providing Environmentally-friendly Power Generation Facilities and Technologies to China and India Tajikistan Afghanistan China Harbin Group Supercritical and ultra-supercritical thermal power generation technologies Pakistan Compared with conventional coal-burning thermal power generation facilities, CO2 emissions are reduced by approximately 5% New Delhi Nepal Bhutan Hazira India Bangladesh Myanmar Dongfang Group Natural gas-burning large gas turbine technologies Compared with coal-burning thermal power generation facilities, CO2 emissions are reduced by approximately 50%. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Dongfang Gas Turbine (JV) Hot parts technology for natural gas-burning large gas turbines Compared with coal-burning thermal power generation facilities, CO2 emissions are reduced by approximately 50%. Ningxia Electric Power Group L&T-MHI Turbine Generators Private Ltd.(JV) L&T-MHI Boilers Private Ltd.(JV) Supercritical and ultra-supercritical steam turbine technologies Supercritical and ultra-supercritical boiler technologies Compared with conventional coal-burning thermal power generation facilities, CO2 emissions are reduced by approximately 5%. Compared with conventional coal-burning thermal power generation facilities, CO2 emissions are reduced by approximately 5%. 1000-kw generating wind turbine technologies Power generating technologies that emit no CO2 22