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GPCA – Connecting the Gulf Directory 2012-13 CONTENTS Contents OAÊÈA^½^˵^¸@ÈOAÊÈA^½^Ë^´È^I¹¸Ì^U^˹^a^¸@cA^Y^LÙ@ GULF PETROCHEMICALS & CHEMICALS ASSOCIATION WELCOME LETTER 5 GPCA secretary general, Dr Abdulwahab Al-Sadoun discusses the GPCA’s achievements for 2012 This Directory is a publication of the Gulf Petrochemicals and Chemicals Association Gulf Petrochemicals and Chemicals Association PO Box 123055, 705/706 Aspect Tower, Business Bay, Dubai, United Arab Emirates T:+971 4 451 0666 F: +971 4 451 0777 Website: www.gpca.org.ae DEMOGRAPHIC PRESSURES DRIVE DOWNSTREAM FOCUS 8 A younger population is dictating the direction of petrochemical development MARGINS TAKE THE STRAIN AS GROWTH SLOWS IN 2012 13 The global slowdown poses many challenges for Middle Eastern producers, as well as opportunities MIDDLE EAST BY NUMBERS The Fifth Edition (Volume V) is co-produced by: 16 Planned capacity increases, major downstream projects and the top producing players ICIS The Quadrant, Sutton, Surrey SM2 5AS UK +44 20 8652 3187 www.icis.com 19 The Middle East continues to see huge investment in new production capacity Editor John Baker Global Editor, ICIS Custom Publishing +44 20 8652 3153 [email protected] Contributors Jose Alberich, Louis Besland, Omar Boulos, Andy Brice, Fabrizio Galle, Jaap Kalkman, Alexander Keller, Sean Milmo, Stephen Pearce, John Richardson, Dan Starta, Mark Whitfield Design and production Dominic Ray, Louise Murrell Printing Atlas Printing Press Dubai United Arab Emirates +971 4 3409895 www.atlasgroupme.com MIDDLE EAST CAPACITIES CONTINUE TO CLIMB MAJOR MIDDLE EAST PROJECTS 20 A selection of some of the most significant plants and projects underway in the region FEEDSTOCK SHIFTS IMPACT DOWNSTREAM 25 Producers in the Gulf are taking measures to offset the effects of the changing feedstock balance POLYMERS SWELL IN THE MIDDLE EAST 29 Huge growth in polymer output is encouraging producers to commit to significant expansion projects HYPER SPEED EVOLUTION DRIVES GCC PETROCHEMICALS 33 After years of exceptional growth, the region must take measures to ensure it continues INVESTING IN A STRONGER SUPPLY CHAIN PAYS OFF 38 Companies can prepare for the future by introducing new management processes and tools THE CHANGING ROLE OF CHEMICAL CLUSTERS 43 The cluster concept has proven hugely successful in recent decades, yet they still need to evolve LOGISTICS INVESTMENT NEEDED AS TRADE GROWS 48 DP World highlights the importance of enhancing efficiency throughout the supply chain FULL MEMBER PROFILES 49 GPCA Members’ Directory: List of full members SMALL GULF PRODUCERS/INTERNATIONAL PRODUCERS 80 GPCA Members’ Directory: List of Small Gulf Producers and International Petrochemicals Producers SERVICE COMPANIES 88 GPCA Members’ Directory: List of Service Company members BUSINESS PARTNERS 99 GPCA Members’ Directory: List of Business Partner members ©2012 by GPCA. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reprinted, or reproduced or utilized in any form or by electronic, mechanical or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording or in any information storage and retrieval system without prior permission in writing from the publisher. www.gpca.org.ae PRODUCT LISTINGS 109 List of main chemical products manufactured by GPCA members 2012 | GPCA Connecting the Gulf DIRECTORY | 3 WELCOME Welcome from the Secretary General GPCA has worked hard to enhance its international image and presence and has been active regionally with many initiatives DR ABDULWAHAB AL-SADOUN The Gulf Petrochemicals and Chemicals Association (GPCA) is proud to present the fifth edition of its Gulf petrochemicals directory, entitled for 2012 “Connecting the Gulf”. As a comprehensive listing of the association’s growing membership, and the leading products and services they offer, I trust you will find it both useful and informative. For this edition, GPCA has commissioned leading industry consultants and chemical industry journalists to provide a comprehensive overview of the state of the global petrochemicals sector, with specific attention on the position and role of Middle East producers. Articles look at demographic trends, feedstocks, plastics, logistics and infrastructure development, not to mention producers’ moves downstream and their drive to sustainability and profitability. Again, I hope you find these articles useful and thought-provoking. GPCA has now been in existence for six years, since it was officially inaugurated in the first quarter of 2006. Over this time it has grown both in size and stature, earning an international reputation as an effective trade organization representing 34 full members from across the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and Iran and well over 165 associate members from the region and around the world. GPCA has worked hard to enhance its international image and presence and has been active regionally with many initiatives, and at international level through the International Council of Chemical Associations (ICCA), notably through its rapid and successful development of a Responsible Care program in the Gulf region. It has also worked successfully to build up a series leading conferences that provide members the chance to network, communicate and learn of best practices across the sector. These new annual events cover fertilizers, plastics, the supply chain and talent management. And, of course, there is the Annual GPCA Forum in Dubai at the end of each year. This has established itself not only as the leading petrochemical event in the Middle East but also as a major draw for leading industry executives, consultants and financiers from across the globe. Once again, I commend this publication to your attention and hope you find it helps your business. This year, for the first time, we are making the content available electronically on a dedicated website and as an app for your iPad or tablet. I would like to express my appreciation for the efforts put in by the ICIS team to compile the editorial content of this publication. In closing, I would like to extend my best wishes to fellow members of the Association and look forward to your continued cooperation and commitment for the year 2013. Dr Abdulwahab Al-Sadoun Secretary General Gulf Petrochemicals and Chemicals Association www.gpca.org.ae 2012 | GPCA Connecting the Gulf DIRECTORY | 5 NG SI TR AN WA RE HO U RT O SP LO GI IN RM ST TE IC S O F F SI T E AL LO GIS TICS VALUE A E DD D End to End Almajdouie De Rijke Logistics, exclusively provides supply chain services to the polymer & liquid industry, starting from silo & bagging management, production planning, warehouse management, customs clearance to shipping. www.almajdouie.com smart solution in logistics Almajdouie Tower, 2nd Floor, P. O. Box 336, Dammam 31411, Tel: +966 3 8198 192, Fax: +966 3 8114 192, Email: [email protected] www.mdr-logistics.com SPONSORS Member support GPCA is grateful to the following companies for their support of this “Connecting the Gulf” publication through their advertising presence. Without them this directory, now in its fifth edition, would not have been possible. GPCA – Connecting the Gulf Directory 2012-13 www.gpca.org.ae 2012 | GPCA Connecting the Gulf DIRECTORY | 7 FEATURE Demographic pressures drive downstream focus Population demographics in the Middle East and the rest of the world are having a profound effect on petrochemical planning, as GCC countries look to create local jobs and serve maturing markets with added-value products JOHN RICHARDSON PERTH, AUSTRALIA T he days of approval for what one industry observer describes as “plain vanilla” petrochemicals projects appears to be at an end in Saudi Arabia, and elsewhere in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. Adding value downstream is now the key strategy across several GCC countries; this can be further defined as adding social as well as economic value. For instance, in Saudi Arabia, which is the most significant example of this major shift in the industry, the population’s median age is only 26, and more than 90% of workers are employed in the public sector. With little room to expand the state sector further to help deal with the challenge of young people entering the workforce, the objective is to create private-sector jobs further downstream of basic petrochemicals. “The (GCC) region is riding a wave of demographic changes − high birth rates, declining mortality rates and a young population,” says global bank HSBC. “Government estimates place more than half of the Middle East’s population under the age of 20, which meaning that they will join the workforce over the next decade.” YOUNG POPULATION The problem is at its most acute in Saudi Arabia, where, according to HSBC, “over half the population is under 20 years old and only 3m, or 16% of the population, are in the workforce.” The bank adds: “Around 2m Saudis are between the ages of 20 and 24, and in this age range, only 0.5m are employed, including expats. Of the 1.8m Saudis between the ages of 15 and 19, few have jobs. All this suggests that around 1.7m jobs must be found in the next 10 years − more if women are to play a greater role in the workforce.” A cracker complex and first-line derivatives project, such as polyethylene (PE) and monoethylene glycol (MEG), creates a substantial number of temporary jobs in the construction phase, but these High birth rates and declining mortality rates have resulted in a young population in the Middle East have traditionally been filled by foreign workers. Once the plants are operating, few people, whether local or from overseas, are employed. But, as one moves further downstream, into more value-added petrochemicals and plastics processing and other manufacturing industries, job creation increases. “Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Petroleum has said, ‘We want an end to polymer tourism’ – plastic pellets leaving the Kingdom and returning as finished goods,” the industry observer adds. “As a result, the $20bn (€15.4bn) Sadara petrochemicals project will have adjacent ‘value parks’, where downstream industries will be located.” Sadara, a joint-venture petrochemicals project 8 | GPCA Connecting the Gulf DIRECTORY | 2012 between Saudi Aramco and US-based Dow Chemical, will produce a wide range of performance products such as polyurethanes (PU) – isocyanates, polyether polyols; propylene oxide (PO); propylene glycol (PG); elastomers; linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE); low-density polyethylene (LDPE); glycol ethers and amines. All the units are scheduled to be onstream by 2016. These performance products will potentially feed into downstream jobs in the value parks in industries including transportation (automotive parts and maintenance fluids), construction (pipes, adhesives and sealants), packaging and containers (food and non-food), and consumer goods (flexible www.gpca.org.ae FEATURE “Around 1.7m jobs must be found in Saudi Arabia in the next 10 years” Rex Features HSBC PU foam for furniture and bedding and rigid foam insulation for appliances). “The first 25 years of the GCC petrochemicals strategy were about making cash out of gas and the next 25 years will be about adding value downstream,” says the observer. He adds that the key was to put the right incentives in place, including low-cost financing and tax incentives. “This is a multi-pronged approach by the Saudi government. It recognizes that it is not just about incentives for investors – it is also about changing the education system to encourage people to work behind hot and sweaty processing plants. There can only be so many ‘knowledge-based workers’ sitting www.gpca.org.ae in nice, air-conditioned offices.” But, of course, investors have to be confident of decent returns from going further downstream. Viable markets still have to be found for products, regardless of the level of government support. This means careful selection of what to build downstream of basic petrochemicals, according to an HSBC study produced in late 2010, which the banks says remains valid. In the study, the bank examined an internal rate of return of 40 basic and differentiated commodity chemicals that could be produced across the Middle East, with a 10% hurdle rate for project viability. Its conclusion was that intermediate chemicals – but not all the way downstream into specialties – were where Saudi Arabia, and the Middle East in general, should be positioned. These included acrylics, acetyls, epoxy resins, polyacetals and the polycarbonate (PC) and nylon chains. What will not work in the Middle East is production of water treatment chemicals, plastic additives, construction chemicals, catalysts, oil-field chemicals and specialty coatings and adhesives, according to the study. This is the result of low demand for these products in the region and the importance of locating plants in countries where the consumption is substantial, such as China, the bank adds. There has to be a shift to liquid cracker feedstocks so a wider range of petrochemicals can be produced, hence the entrance of Saudi Aramco, the refiner, into the petrochemicals sector. But, as HSBC points out: “Crude-based feeds are not stranded and have alternative liquid markets. Therefore, they cannot be priced at the same levels as gas-based feedstocks and their cost to the producers has to reflect market prices. “It is true that these feedstocks can be priced at a slight discount to market to take into account logistics and other marketing costs. The use of heavier feedstocks also tends to result in higher capital costs for the plants. This is an offshoot of the number of derivative units that need to be built to incorporate the wider product portfolio available from these feeds. “The combination of higher capital costs, and a lower cost-advantage, results in a decline in returns on capital.” There is another difficulty: because of their relatively small populations, the GCC countries will still be highly dependent on export markets, regardless of the point at which they cease to go downstream towards manufacturing finished goods. DEMOGRAPHICS AND DEMAND “In Saudi Arabia, for example, there are just 28m people compared with the huge populations of China and India, where the big demand growth opportunities remain,” says Paul Hodges, chairman of the UK-based chemicals consultancy International e-Chem. “Therefore, whether Saudi Arabia stops at synthetic rubber production, or continues to tyre manufacturing, export markets will remain crucial.” Thus the GCC, along with every other region seeking to take advantage of emerging markets growth, needs to take into account profound, irreversible shifts in the global economy, says Hodges. “The ageing of the Western ‘baby boomers’ (born between 1946 and 1970) is creating major changes in demand patterns,” Hodges adds. “The first boomer became 55 in 2001, an age when people typically 2012 | GPCA Connecting the Gulf DIRECTORY | 9 Rex Features FEATURE China is raising minimum wages in an effort to narrow the gap between rich and poor start to save more and spend less, as the kids have often left home. Today, 29% of the Western world (272m people), is now in this New Old 55-plus generation. And they are uncomfortably aware that they have to save more, and spend even less, as they now have to finance an extra decade or more of life expectancy, compared with previous generations.” Hodges says this has major implications for China, which benefited enormously from strong growth in demand for its exports during what he calls the economic supercycle: 1982−2007. During this period, Western growth was buoyed by the baby boomers, the wealthiest generation the world has ever known, being in the middle of their peak earnings years. Deutsche Bank has also made the link between ageing populations and the decline in Western growth. It has warned of repeated recessions over the next 10 years as a result of demographics and other deep structural problems in the US and Europe. These include big private and public debt liabilities, left over from the 2008 global financial crisis. And in a September 2012 study, A Journey into the Unknown, it provides evidence for this long-term negative outlook. The bank, for example, estimates that more than half of Western economies have failed to return to their 2007−2008 economic peak. Despite trillions of dollars of stimulus, the US is only 1.8% above its peak during those two years. “China benefited enormously from the supercycle, which partly coincided with its admission to the World Trade Organization in 2001,” says Hodges. “Strong demand growth in the West, combined with the lowering of trade barriers, enabled China to hugely increase the scale of its manufacturing industry. Previously, the model was quite simple. It involved produc- “Many people have underestimated the extent of [China’s] structural changes and what they will mean over the medium, and possibly even the long-term, for economic growth” PAUL HODGES Chairman, International E-Chem ing as large a quantity as possible of basic synthetic resins and bulk liquid chemicals, for shipment to China for processing into finished goods for shipment mainly to the West. “All that mattered was that you were either close enough to the market to benefit from a logistics advantage, as in South Korea, or you had a big feedstock advantage, which, of course, is the case with the Middle East. You didn’t have to worry about demand growth, because that took care of itself.” China’s 12th Five-Year Plan (2011−2015) recognizes the need to break away from the investment and export-focused growth model. Hodges adds: “The model is not only vulnerable to the slowdown in export growth, but has also led to overcapacity in many industries, a dangerous level of bad debts and environmental problems because of poor manufacturing standards.” China is, as a result, undergoing major economic structural changes at a time of exceptional global economic weakness. These changes include raising environmental standards among manufacturers, and 20% or more annual increases in minimum wages in an 10 | GPCA Connecting the Gulf DIRECTORY | 2012 effort to narrow the gap between rich and poor. The central government also wants to increase value-added manufacturing to justify these higher wages. “Many people have underestimated the extent of these structural changes and what they will mean over the medium, and possibly even the long term, for economic growth,” says Hodges. For example, a hedge fund warned in a September 2012 report that China’s nominal, or real, GDP growth could be as low as 4−5% /year from 2013 to 2016. So, if the old export-processing model has broken down for petrochemicals, what is the right strategy for the Middle East? “It is all about segmentation,” says Hodges. “It is about manufacturing petrochemicals and downstream products in the Middle East to serve the long-term needs of emerging markets.” The megatrends include improving access to food and to safe drinking water, improving water conservation and reducing carbon footprints. In India, for instance, 40% of food rots before it reaches the people who need it, hence the country’s alarmingly high levels of malnutrition and infant mortality. Here, the Middle East could work with the Indian government to supply the PU insulation foam for refrigeration, says Hodges. “But the reality is that to achieve big-volume sales in India, the polyurethane foam will have to be exceptionally cheap. The reason is that the majority of people in countries such as India and China are very poor by Western standards.” Insulation foam might have to be sold to an Indian manufacturer making refrigerators that sell for as little as $50−$100 each. Another example of a huge volume, but price sensitive, market is PE for manufacturing water pipes for better irrigation of crops. The GCC has a big opportunity to emerge as a major winner in this economic environment because it understands, from its own experience, that adding value involves social as well as economic factors. It is, therefore, already in tune with the objectives of many developing countries. And, despite an erosion of cost advantages as the GCC moves downstream, more differentiated petrochemicals production will still yield good returns. This is thanks to continued access to some competitively priced feedstock and strong government incentives. “The GCC has every chance of emerging a major winner in this new environment,” says Hodges. “This could well be a tremendous success story.” John Richardson is director − Asia for ICIS training and is now based in Perth, Australia. He has been with ICIS for many years and was formerly based in Singapore as editor of Asian Chemical News. He also writes the ICIS Asia blog and is writing a book, The New Normal, with Paul Hodges, chairman of International E-chem. John travels extensively to the Middle East and has provided training courses for leading regional producers, as well as chairing industry events such as last year’s Annual GPCA Forum Chemical Leadership Dialogue www.gpca.org.ae www.sabic.com w)-.5) 5)/,55 #(()50.#)(-5,5#(0#-#&55 /.5#(#-*(-&Ci5 854364 5:61 54435, 45:4 3576 /,5*,)/.-5"(!5."51),&5#(55135.".5 #-5().5&13-50#-#&A5/.5#-5-.#&&5*,*.#&C5#."5 1&&5)0,5NAJEE5*.(.-A5.)35)/,5-*#&.35 "'#&-5&,35"&*5/-5) ,5#'*),.(.5-)&/.#)(-5 #(5'(35,-C5)5'#(.#(5."#-5*)-#.#)(A515,5 )(-.(.&350&)*#(!5(15#-5(5,-,"#(!5 #.#)(&5)*.#)(-5.)5'%5&# 5'),5/.# /&A5 - ,A5(5'),5-/-.#(&C5".5#-5*,#)/-5.)5/-C5 1".5#-5*,#)/-5.)53)/T 888 35 FEATURE Margins take the strain as growth slows in 2012 Middle East petrochemical producers historically have enjoyed rapid growth and good financial performance. But the slowdown in global growth, new capacity and pricier feedstocks are having an impact on margins Rex Features The Gulf construction industry has seen declining share prices in the past year SEAN MILMO LONDON T he slowdown in the world economy is now sharply outlined by the longer-term financial challenges facing Middle East petrochemical and bulk chemical producers. They are now confronting the prospect of lengthy sluggish growth in their mature export markets in Europe and, to a lesser extent, North America. In the emerging markets, particularly India and China, an easing of fast growth rates is softening chemicals demand in their main foreign sales outlets. Also, there is a growing threat of stronger competition from domestic producers and other international market participants in their major export markets. For example, US petrochemical companies have been taking advantage of feedstocks from cheap shale gas at home to boost exports to Asia. The big rise in capacity in the Middle East petrochemicals production center in the Gulf is expected to level out. Since 2008, new ethylene capacity, for example, has been growing at 12%/year to total around 26m tonnes/year. In the rest of the decade, this growth rate should drop to below 5%/year. www.gpca.org.ae The focus will be on the ability of owners of new and expanded plants to pay off their construction and other capital debts and make the sort of strong financial returns traditionally expected in the region. Gulf producers are tackling problems of rising costs, particularly of feedstocks, which in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere can no longer be so dependent on cheap but scarce ethane. Alternatives such as naphtha will have to be sold to Gulf producers at world prices. Some economists are predicting that a combination of weak world demand and rising exports from countries such as the US will reduce Middle East sales of crude oil, raising speculation that there will be a decrease in squeezed supplies of associated gas for making petrochemicals. Some leading Gulf petrochemical and bulk chemical producers are so profitable, they can withstand the financial pressures of fragile global demand and lower prices. They will still return operating or net profit margins on a level with those for high-end specialty chemicals, pharmaceuticals and agrochemicals. There will be a few whose margins will be even higher because they will continue to enjoy contract gas supply prices of around $1 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). This is about three-times and 10-times lower than the prevailing gas prices in the US and northern Europe, respectively. Others will be paying much higher prices – although still low by international standards – for their feedstocks. Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s state oil and gas company, is understood to have raised its charges for gas feedstocks from $0.75 to $2.00MMBtu for new petrochemical projects in the country. However, other Middle Eastern companies, particularly smaller producers with large debts, will be much more vulnerable to the new harsher conditions in domestic and international chemical markets. Variations in the fortunes of producers will be most noticeable in Saudi Arabia, which accounts for much of the production of petrochemical and bulk chemicals in the Gulf. The profits of petrochemical businesses have been falling in the country, as well as other Middle East states, since the end of last year, when commodity prices were declining across the world. The slide in petrochemical margins over the past year has been reflected in share prices on the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul). While the Tadawul total share index has gone up by around 6% between the beginning of 2012 and mid-October, the index for the country’s 14 listed petrochemical companies has gone down by 7%. By contrast, shares in industrial sectors outside of petrochemicals have gone up by 14% since the beginning of the year and in telecommunications and information technology by 26%. Among other segments with declining share are energy and utilities, down by 3%, and building and construction, down by 9%. SABIC SETS THE PACE The trend of falling profits and narrowing margins has been highlighted in the financial results of 70% stateowned SABIC, by far the Middle East’s biggest petrochemical and bulk chemicals producer. The company also has controlling or large minority stakes in other Saudi petrochemical producers such as Safco, Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (Yansab) and Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Co. SABIC’s results mirrored the decline in demand and prices a year ago when its fourth-quarter results in 2011 showed that, despite a 15% rise in sales, operating profits slipped by 5%, with the margin declining from 24.5% to 20%. Also, in the whole of last year, sales rose by 25% to Saudi riyal (SR) 190bn ($51bn, €39bn), with operating profits up by 29% to SR49bn, equivalent to an operating margin of 26%. For the first half of this year, SABIC’s results revealed a 1% drop in sales, with operating profits falling by 19% and operating margins down five percentage points to 22%. Net profit margin slipped four points to 13%. In the third quarter, after an 8% sales decrease, operating profit declined by 27% and operating margin by six points to 22%, compared with the same period in 2011. Net profit fell by 23% to SR6.3bn, equivalent 2012 | GPCA Connecting the Gulf DIRECTORY | 13 FEATURE to a reduction of three points to 14%. On Tadawul, SABIC shares have been holding up comparatively well with a price of SR90 in midOctober, only slightly lower than a year ago, although well below a high of SR110 in July. The company has taken steps to cut costs to maintain margins, which are so far higher than during the previous petrochemicals downturn in 2009, when operating and net margins fell to 18% and 9%, respectively. Its finances are helped by the higher margin of non-bulk chemical operations such as engineering plastics, a business it acquired from US conglomerate General Electric five years ago. Above all, its profits are bolstered by the continuous high margins of its fertilizer activities. In the first half of the year, their net profit margin was 59%, against 13% for chemicals. “We are confident that SABIC, with our global reach, is ready and capable of facing major global challenges and trends, and in the process, bring in sound returns for our shareholders,” said vice chairman and chief executive officer Mohamed Al-Mady at this year’s announcement of the third-quarter results. SMALLER PRODUCERS FOLLOW Some other Saudi petrochemical and bulk chemical companies are less well positioned financially to deal with the difficulties of a slowdown in demand and weak prices in international markets. This is particularly the case with smaller, less diversified producers, which are already coping with lower margins than other Saudi petrochemical market participants, and have large long-term loans for new plant builds. Alujain Corporation, the 57% majority shareholder in National Petrochemical Industrial Co (NATPET), which operates a two-year-old 400,000 tonne/year propylene and polypropylene (PP) complex in Yanbu Industrial City in the west of Saudi Arabia, raised sales by 77% last year to SR1.5bn. But its operating profit was only SR94.5m, equivalent to a 6.3% operating margin. After paying financial charges of SR95m, 2.6times higher than in 2010, it returned a net loss of SR8m. The company blamed the loss on technical problems which caused it to run at an average 69% of capacity and, in addition to the higher financial charges, higher feedstocks costs and lower PP prices. But in the first half of this year, Alujain saw sales jump by 55% at SR1bn compared with the first half of 2011. Operating profits almost tripled to SR104m and it returned a net profit of SR24m against an SR8m loss in last year’s first half. Operating and net margins were 10% and 2%, respectively. At the end of June, it had loans outstanding of SR1.8bn. Sahara Petrochemical Co (SPC), a shareholder in propylene, PP and polyethylene (PE) producers headed by Al Waha Petrochemical Co in Saudi Arabia’s Jubail City, recorded total income of SR240m, equivalent to a 16% margin on sales of SR1.5bn in 2011, its first full year of operation. In the first nine months of this year, it made an operating loss of SR78m after “We are confident that SABIC, with our global reach, is ready and capable of facing major global challenges and trends, and in the process, bring in sound returns for our shareholders” MOHAMED AL-MADY Vice chairman and CEO, SABIC sales fell by 13% to SR950m, compared with the same period in 2011. But it made a net profit of SR139m, 65% lower than last year, taking into account earnings from shareholdings in associate companies. SPC’s share price had fallen by 38% to SR12.55 by mid-October after hitting a high of SR20.15 in April. It recently announced a revolving credit agreement with Saudi Investment Bank for SR400m, which it said would act as standby support for its financial needs. Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical Co (Petro Rabigh), in which Saudi Aramco and Sumitomo Chemical of Japan each have a 37.5% stake and private investors the remainder, and whose petrochemicals complex is centred on a 1.3m tonne/year ethylene cracker, made a net profit of SR66m last year on SR53bn sales. In its third year of operation, this was 68% lower than the net profit in 2010. In the first half of this year, Petro Rabigh’s sales rose by 40% to SR31bn, but operating profit plunged 72% to SR89m, equivalent to a margin of 0.28%. Net profit fell by 96% to SR11m, after financial charges of SR189m, which were partly offset by SR111m in income from other sources. The problem faced by Petro Rabigh, which aims to benefit from refining and petrochemicals integration, is the poor profitability of refined products. In the first half of this year, its refining section made a loss of SR713m on SR26bn sales, while the petrochemicals business made a SR1.3bn profit from a 26% margin on SR4.7bn sales. The whole project also had, at the end of June this year, outstanding loans of SR24bn. Meanwhile, Petro Rabigh’s share price had slumped by mid-October from a 52-week high of SR28.8 in March to SR17.55. It is now below the SR21 level at its IPO for 25% of shares in early 2008, when 4.5m Saudi citizens took part in the offering. Saudi Kayan, which is gradually bringing onstream a 6m tonne/year petrochemicals complex including speciality products in Jubail City, has taken out 15-year 14 | GPCA Connecting the Gulf DIRECTORY | 2012 loans of SR22.5bn, of which SR21.5bn was outstanding at the end of September. It has recently used additional amounts of SR1.5bn from SABIC, a 35% shareholder, and SR6.5bn from local banks. In the first nine months of this year, Saudi Kayan made an SR111m operating loss and a net SR558m loss on its first sales of SR6.5bn. Financial charges were SR393m in the period. Its share price had tumbled to SR12.3 by mid-October from a high of SR21.6 earlier in the year and from about SR17 in October 2011. Over the next few years, the Middle East’s bestperforming petrochemicals and bulk chemical businesses will be those free of heavy debt and still enjoying low feedstock costs, particularly those with output processes with above-average energy intensity. SABIC subsidiary Safco, an ammonia and urea manufacturer, with gas feedstocks costing $0.75MMBtu, made an operating profit last year of SR4.2bn on sales of SR5bn, equivalent to an operating margin of 80%. Income from shares in an associate company pushed net profit up to SR4.1bn. In the first nine months of this year, operating profits slipped to SR2.5bn on static sales of SR3.6bn, but still provided a margin of 70%. Financial charges in the 21-year-old company were only SR1.8m in the period. Safco is one of Saudi Arabia’s and the Middle East’s most profitable companies. Not surprisingly, its share price in mid-October, at SR186, was 2% higher than a year ago and 58% up on three years ago. TOP OF THE TABLE IN QATAR Qatari companies using Qatar’s gas feedstocks at a cost of $1.00−1.50/MMBtu are also at the top of the region’s profitability table. Industries Qatar (IQ), the holding company with majority shares in Qatar Petrochemical Co, Qatar Fertilizer Co, and Qatar Fuel Additives Co, as well as Qatar Steel Co, last year made a net profit of Qatari riyal 7.9bn ($2.1bn) with a profit margin averaging 48%. But with its petrochemical and fertilizer activities, the margins were around 60%. The company, 70% owned by state oil and gas company Qatar Petroleum with the remaining shares floated on the Qatari Stock Exchange, is performing well “even during the turmoil of the international economy”, says Abdulrahman Ahmad Al-Shaibi, IQ chief coordinator. “The company enjoys highly competitive advantages that qualify it to take [on] such challenges as incentives and not obstacles.” For IQ and several petrochemical businesses in the Middle East, their continued international competitiveness should guarantee investors relatively high returns over the next few years. But for others, the future could be much tougher. Sean Milmo is a freelance reporter working in the UK and covering the petrochemical and pharmaceuticals industries. He writes regularly for ICIS covering the Middle East petrochemical sector www.gpca.org.ae The perfect formula for your process automation. Endress+Hauser is your supplier for state of the art process instrumentation: robust, safe and intelligent. 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Box 293828 Dubai United Arab Emirates Phone +971 4 253 51 00 Fax +971 4 609 18 11 [email protected] www.ii.endress.com FEATURE Middle East by numbers GULF PETROCHEMICALS OUTPUT IS SET TO RISE FURTHER BY 2015 2009 Ethylene Polyethylene Monoethylene glycol Propylene Polypropylene 2015e Gulf World Gulf share % Gulf World Gulf share % 16.8 10.7 6.0 5.1 5.1 133.5 83.0 23.3 87.5 54.4 12.6 12.9 26.0 5.8 10.8 32.0 20.3 10.8 10.1 9.5 156.5 113.0 37.9 105.0 73.0 20.5 18.0 28.5 9.6 13.0 SOURCE: GPCA, SRI, Deutsche Bank (2010) A NUMBER OF DOWNSTREAM PROJECTS ARE PLANNED IN SAUDI ARABIA Production, 000s tonnes/year 1,000 900 800 650 600 590 500 460 420 400 400 300 290 240 175 200 100 100 100 VA M MD I Ace t Aci ic d SB R A 50 B Ru utyl bbe r SOURCE: GPCA 100 PA N C lac apro tam Nyl on 6 Nyl on 6,6 SA P Acr nitr ylo ile AB S PO Pol yol Acr ylic Aci d PC nol BP A Phe 0 50 A 140 40 MM 200 PM M 240 Cum ene A huge swathe of investment is planned in the Middle East over the coming years. In the face of a changing feedstock balance, many producers are not only building world-scale cracker projects but are also focusing on expanding their portfolios and developing high-value downstream projects. Members of The Gulf Cooperation Council are facing increased competition from other regions, as well as the challenge of a changing demographic, with a younger population and the need to find additional jobs in the chemical sector. Here is a collection of data to highlight some of these issues. GULF PETROCHEMICAL CAPACITIES ARE PROJECTED TO RISE BY OVER 12%/YEAR 20 years old More than half the population in the Middle East is under the age of 20, says HSBC (page 8) m tonnes/year Actual 160 Projected 120 CAGR = 12.2% 80 40 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 SOURCE: GPCA analysis of 2010 public data 16 | GPCA Connecting the Gulf DIRECTORY | 2012 www.gpca.org.ae FEATURE WORLD TOP 10 PRODUCING GROUPS: POLYETHYLENE 12%/year 2011 New ethylene capacity has grown at 12%/year to 26m tonnes/year since 2008 (page 13) 2016 m tonnes/year % m tonnes/year % 7.4 7.5 6.7 5.1 5.3 3.4 2.4 3.2 3.4 2.8 7.8 8.0 7.1 5.4 5.6 3.6 2.5 3.4 3.6 3.0 9.0 8.1 7.4 5.7 5.3 4.8 4.4 3.9 3.4 3.2 8.0 7.2 6.6 5.1 4.8 4.3 3.9 3.5 3.0 2.9 ExxonMobil Dow Chemical SABIC Sinopec Corp LyondellBasell Industries Petrochina NPC Iran Braskem INEOS Group Chevron Phillips Chemical SOURCE: ICIS consulting WORLD TOP 10 PRODUCING GROUPS: POLYPROPYLENE 2011 2016 m tonnes/year % m tonnes/year % 4.8 6.0 3.2 4.0 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.2 1.9 2.2 8.0 9.9 5.3 6.7 4.7 4.4 4.3 3.7 3.2 3.6 6.0 5.9 4.2 4.0 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.2 8.4 8.3 5.8 5.5 4.3 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.3 3.0 Sinopec Corp LyondellBasell Industries Petrochina Braskem SABIC Reliance Industries Total Petrochemicals Borealis ExxonMobil Formosa Plastics Group SOURCE: ICIS consulting 20% of GDP Saudi Arabia wants to expand manufacturing from 11% of GDP to diversify its economy (page 45) CAPACITIES IN THE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO GROW SIGNIFICANTLY m tonnes/year 160 end 2009 2015 120 80 40 0 UAE Iran Saudi Arabia Qatar Oman Kuwait Bahrain TOTAL SOURCE: MEED, McKinsey, TechnonOrbichem (2010) www.gpca.org.ae 2012 | GPCA Connecting the Gulf DIRECTORY | 17 w w w.fer til.com # ! 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Yanbu, Tel.: +966 4 396 1347, Fax: +966 4 396 8437 Qatar: Doha, Tel.: +974 432 7574, Fax: +974 431 2538, Email: [email protected] . Website: www.aytb.com FEATURE Middle East capacities continue to climb The region, blessed with low-cost feedstock and access to growing markets, is still undergoing huge expansion ANDY BRICE LONDON T PROJECTS PLANNED There are also various projects planned in Iran, although many of these are likely to be delayed or canceled because of ongoing international sanctions. The first phase of Kavian Petrochemical’s ethanebased Olefins No 11 project – a 1m tonne/year train – was due for completion in July 2012 but is now expected in the fourth quarter. The second train, with the same capacity, is expected to start up by the end of 2013. About 180,000 tonnes/year of propylene will also be produced at the site. Iran’s Bakhtar Petrochemical owns a 56.5% stake in Kavian, with the remaining shares held by private Iranian investors, including Kermanshah Polymer Co, Lorestan Petrochemical, Kordestan Petrochemical and Mahabad Petrochemical. Most of the ethylene produced is expected to feed downstream projects that are scheduled to start up over the next two years. In Saudi Arabia, the Sadara Chemical project in Jubail continues to dominate the headlines. This is the joint venture agreed between Saudi Aramco and US major Dow Chemical in July 2011, and comprises 26 manufacturing units. It is said to be the world’s Middle Eastern producers remain heavily focused on moving downstream and enhancing sustainability www.gpca.org.ae Fortune Live Media he US might be hoping to take up the mantle of most-advantaged feedstock region, given its recent shale gas discoveries, but the development of new crackers and petrochemical plants in the Middle East continues with aplomb. Middle Eastern producers remain heavily focused on moving downstream and enhancing sustainability. Part of their strategic growth has led to the establishment of vast clusters and hubs, sharing infrastructure and resources to maximise efficiency and profitability. In the past year alone, there has been a flurry of activity in the region, with major projects gathering pace. Saudi Arabia remains a key area of focus, with numerous studies, expansions and new facilities being built. Khalid Al-Falih of Saudi Aramco and Andrew Liveris of Dow Chemical seal the Sadara Chemical joint venture largest integrated chemical complex site ever built at one time. The $20bn (€15.4bn) petrochemicals project includes a 1.5m tonne/year ethylene cracker that will also produce 400,000 tonnes/year of propylene. This cracker will run on both ethane and naphtha, and is expected to begin operations in the second half of 2015. The site – with units producing polyurethane (PU), propylene oxide (PO), propylene glycol (PG), elastomers, linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE), low-density polyethylene (LDPE), glycol ethers and amines – is expected to be up and running in 2016. CRACKER EXPANSION Saudi Aramco is working on the phase II expansion of the Petro Rabigh petrochemical project, its joint venture with Japan’s Sumitomo Chemical. The $7bn investment will also see the construction of an aromatics complex using an additional 30m standard cubic feet/day of ethane and about 3m tonnes/year of naphtha as feedstock. The new plants are expected to come on stream in the first half of 2016. Main products include ethylenepropylene rubber (EPR), thermoplastic polyolefin (TPO), methyl methacrylate (MMA) monomer, polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA), LDPE/ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA), paraxylene (PX)/benzene, cumene and phenol/acetone. In October, Saudi Polymers began full commercial operations at its Al Jubail complex in Saudi Arabia. The site can produce 1.16m tonnes/year of ethylene, 1.1m tonnes/year of PE – combining high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE), 430,000 tonnes/year of propylene, 400,000 tonnes/year of polypropylene (PP), 200,000 tonnes/year of polystyrene (PS) and 100,000 tonnes/year of 1-Hexene. Saudi’s National Petrochemical holds a 65% stake in Saudi Polymers, with the remaining 35% owned by Arabian Chevron Phillips Petrochemical. In the past few years, new facilities in the Middle East have been beset by technical difficulties and feedstock shortages, yet there have been huge capacity expansions in the region. Twelve new cracker complexes started up between 2008 and 2010, and another wave came on stream last year. But with limited availability of natural gas and greater competition from the US and Asia, the Middle East’s focus on value-added petrochemicals and derivatives could be key to its future success. Andy Brice is custom publishing editor at ICIS, having previously been markets editor on ICIS Chemical Business Additional reporting by: Prema Viswanathan, Pearl Bantillo and Tomomi Yokomura in Singapore 2012 | GPCA Connecting the Gulf DIRECTORY | 19 FEATURE Major Middle East projects SAUDI ARABIA YANBU 1 QATAR RAS LAFFAN 6 NATPET A 50:50 joint venture was established in June between Saudi Arabia’s National Petrochemical Industrial (NATPET) and A Schulman of the US to build a 100,000 tonnes/year polypropylene (PP) compounding unit in Yanbu, near NATPET’s 400,000 tonnes/year PP plant. They plan to bring it online by the first quarter of 2015. The compounding unit will be completed in two phases, the first – costing about Saudi riyal (SR) 266m ($71m/€55m) – is funded via 40% equity and 60% debt. Qatar Petroleum/QAPCO Having selected Technip’s technology for the project, targeted completion is 2018 at a cost of $5.5bn (€4.5bn). Plans include a 1.4m tonnes/year cracker, which will obtain feedstock from natural gas plants at the site. Downstream units will produce 850,000 tonnes/year of high-density polyethylene (HDPE), 430,000 tonnes/year of linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE), 760,000 tonnes/year of polypropylene (PP) and 83,000 tonnes/year of butadiene (BD). SAUDI ARABIA QATAR RABIGH 2 RAS LAFFAN 7 Saudi Aramco/Sumitomo Chemical The $7bn (€5.6bn) expansion of their joint venture Petro Rabigh complex in Rabigh, Saudi Arabia – dubbed Rabigh II – will see the expansion of the 1.3m tonnes/year ethane cracker and the construction of an aromatics complex. This will process some 30m standard cubic feet/day of ethane and 3m tonnes/year of naphtha, supplying feedstock to downstream plants. Initially expected to come onstream in 2014–2015, it is scheduled to start up in the first half of 2016. Qatar Petroleum/Shell Chemicals The Qatar Petroleum/Shell project is expected to include a steam cracker, a 1.5m tonnes/year monoethylene glycol (MEG) plant, a 300,000 tonnes/year linear alpha olefins unit and 250,000 tonnes/year oxo alcohols unit. It could come onstream within four years following a final decision to proceed. The complex is estimated to cost $6.4bn (€5.1bn). Output from the project is expected to cater primarily to the Asian markets. SAUDI ARABIA UNITED ARAB EMIRATES AL JUBAIL 3 RUWAIS, ABU DHABI 8 Sadara Chemical The $20bn (€15.4bn) Sadara project – the joint venture between Saudi Aramco and US producer Dow Chemical – in Jubail Industrial City in Saudi Arabia is the largest integrated chemical complex ever built in a single phase. The 1.5m tonnes/year ethylene cracker is scheduled to be operational in the second half of 2015, with all units expected to be up and running by 2016. It will run on both ethane and naphtha. Borouge 3 This polyolefins project will see a capacity expansion of 2.5m tonnes/year to a total of 4.5m tonnes/year by the end of 2013. It is expected to be fully operational by mid-2014. The $4.5bn (€3.4bn) investment includes construction of a third ethane cracker, two polyethylene (PE) plants, two polypropylene (PP) plants, a low density polyethylene (LDPE) unit, and an innovation center. Borouge is a jointventure between Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and Borealis. SAUDI ARABIA UNITED ARAB EMIRATES AL JUBAIL 4 AL GHARBIA, ABU DHABI 9 Saudi Kayan The start up of the new 300,000 tonnes/year low density polyethylene (LDPE) unit at Al Jubail, Saudi Arabia, began in September – having been originally scheduled to come online in July. Products from this new unit will be marketed globally, with the main market targeted at China. Saudi Arabia chemicals major SABIC owns a 35% stake in Saudi Kayan Petrochemical, while Al-Kayan Petrochemical holds a 20% stake. The remaining 45% is held by public shareholders. ChemaWEyaat Abu Dhabi National Chemicals Company (ChemaWEyaat) is planning an aromatics complex in Al Gharbia, east of the Ruwais industrial complex in Abu Dhabi. The project will process 3m tonnes/year of heavy naphtha to produce paraxylene (PX), mixed xylenes (MX) and benzene. The aromatics site marks the first stage of the country’s Tacaamol chemicals integration project and will be fed by pipeline from the Takreer Ruwais Refinery. IRAN OMAN ASSALUYEH 5 Kavian Petrochemical The first phase of its 2m tonnes/year olefins No 11 project is now expected in the fourth quarter. A second 1m tonnes/year ethylene train should start up by the end of next year. Iran’s Bakhtar Petrochemical owns a 56.5% stake, with shares held by investors including Kermanshah Polymer Co, Lorestan Petrochemical, Kordestan Petrochemical and Mahabad Petrochemical. The latter three should be starting up polyethylene (PE) units by 2014, after delays by US sanctions. 20 | GPCA Connecting the Gulf DIRECTORY | 2012 DUQM 10 OCC/IPIC In June, it was reported that Oman Oil Company (OCC) and Abu Dhabi’s International Petroleum Investment Company (IPIC) formed a 50:50 joint venture to develop a refinery and petrochemical complex in Duqm, Oman. The project will center on a 230,000 bbl/day refinery, scheduled for completion by 2017, with a petrochemical complex forming the second phase. Some label it one of the most important investment projects in the region. The Duqm cracker will be mixed feed. FEATURE Caspian Sea SYRIA IRAN IRAQ JORDAN KUWAIT 3 5 4 6 7 Arabian Gulf QATAR SAUDI ARABIA 1 2 8 9 UAE OMAN 10 Red Sea www.gpca.org.ae YEMEN www.gpca.org.ae 2012 | GPCA Connecting the Gulf DIRECTORY | 21 www.sabic.com VISION + PERFORMANCE POWERING OUR CUSTOMERS’ AMBITIONS IS NOT JUST A STORY TO TALK ABOUT. IT’S WHAT SABIC DOES EVERYDAY. FEATURE Daniel Foster Feedstock changes impact downstream Middle East producers are looking more to refinery streams to source petrochemical feedstocks T he global landscape for petrochemical feedstocks has been undergoing a major transition for the past two to three years. In the US, the development of shale gas has accelerated and shifted the balance in terms of access to cost-competitive cracker feeds. At the same time, in the Middle East there has been a growing shift away from ethane cracking to liquids, as availability tightens and state and producer strategies refocus on moving downstream into high-added-value products. Figures from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and oil company BP show that the US now has the second highest recoverable reserves of natural gas, at 74 trillion m3, split equally between conventional and unconventional – ie shale gas – sources. Russia has the greatest reserves at 141 trillion m3, and Saudi Arabia is still placed third, with 39 trillion m3, almost all from conventional sources. In the Middle East, Qatar and Iran also figure prominently in the top list of gas-rich countries. There is still a drive to produce more incremental gas in the Gulf region, within tight regional markets, and this will release incremental amounts of natural gas liquids for petrochemical use. But extra cheap ethane will only be available to a selected number of producers. Hence the emphasis on a wider-ranging and higher-value petrochemical slate, with incremental use of refinery to petrochemical options. However, www.gpca.org.ae Shale gas in North America and tighter ethane supplies in the Middle East are changing the face of global feedstock balances. Gulf producers are responding by widening their feedstock slate and product portfolios JOHN BAKER LONDON natural gas will remain the key competitive element in the region. ICIS Consulting believes that shale gas from unconventional sources will promote many new projects, as is already being seen in the US, where a spate of cracker projects has been announced. Increased future production here, it says, is likely to challenge the Middle East’s traditional large markets in China, India and the rest of Asia. The increased production of natural gas from shale sources has slashed regional gas prices. Partly as a result, shale gas producers are looking to maximize associated liquids extraction. Incremental ethane and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) will be targeted at the new ethylene cracker expansions in North America, while large amounts of LPGs will be exported to international markets. The US has already shifted from a net importer to net exporter of such products. But Middle Eastern producers are responding by evolving their product and portfolio slates. Already, the Gulf Cooperation Council member states, with Iran, are on the way to becoming a global hub for the development and processing of high-value and highend downstream derivatives. An analysis of projects shows a diverse range of products being added by 2015 to the Middle East portfolio, including polycarbonate (PC), propylene oxide (PO), polyols, bisphenol A (BPA), cumene, acrylic acid (AA), 2012 | GPCA Connecting the Gulf DIRECTORY | 25 FEATURE The Gulf Cooperation Council member states, with Iran, are on the way to becoming a global hub for the development and processing of high-value and high-end downstream derivatives ICIS CONSULTING acrylonitrile (ACN), caprolactam (capro), methyl di-pphenylene isocyanate (MDI), ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA), vinyl acetate (VAM), acrylonitrile-butadienestyrene (ABS), and elastomers. ICIS estimates that in the Middle East, the incremental feedstocks for added basic petrochemicals capacity from 2011 to 2020 will be split in the following proportions: ethane 40%, LPG 20%, naphtha for olefins 20% and naphtha for aromatics 20%. This is a much more balanced split than in other regions of the globe – in North America, for instance, ethane will account for just over 60% of feedstocks for new capacity, while in Asia, naphtha will the predominant feedstock, with just a little LPG and no appreciable ethane used. Figures from ICIS Consulting suggest the Middle East will consume an additional 10m tonnes of naphtha feedstock between 2011-2020, split between use in olefins, aromatics and other production. While far behind the figures for northeast Asia (nearly 60m tonnes) and Asia and the Pacific region (25m tonnes), the Middle East figure is well ahead of incremental naphtha demand in all other regions, indicating the region will remain a keen investor in petrochemicals capacity. The main areas for development are cited as Saudi Arabia, Iran and Abu Dhabi. This incremental naphtha in the Gulf region is primarily sourced from refineries, but also from natural gas liquids and, to a lesser extent, from gas-to-liquids facilities. Heavy condensate processing in dedicated splitters will be a major factor in the Middle East. Incremental regional naphtha production between 2011-2020 is estimated at 20m tonnes, twice the incremental demand into petrochemicals, indicating the region will likely keep more naphtha in the gasoline pool or add to its already substantial exports (28.8m tonnes in 2011, virtually all to Asian customers). The effects of the shifting landscape in feedstocks are now becoming clearer. The US will become more competitive in derivatives close to the ethane cracker, once the modern, world-scale units come on stream over the next five years or so. Middle East producers will see greater competition in their main exports markets in Asia. But by this time, they will be well on the way to widening their product portfolios to higher-value products. However, by moving to crack liquids and heavier feedstocks they will see downward pressure on margins. The net effect of all three factors will be determined by the efficiency of production and the competitiveness of the new product ranges. However, there is now a question over whether the Middle East will continue to be a major investor in petrochemicals. John Baker is global editor for custom publishing at ICIS. He has 30 years’ experience of reporting on the chemical industry and was for many years editor of European Chemical News, now ICIS Chemical Business. Go to www.icis.com 26 | GPCA Connecting the Gulf DIRECTORY | 2012 www.gpca.org.ae A Formula for Tomorrow www.saudiaramco.com © Copyright 2012, Saudi Aramco. All rights reserved. FEATURE Polymers boom in the Middle East Middle East producers have enjoyed a robust position in polymers since entering the global market and are still investing, with significant export growth due through to 2020 JOHN BAKER LONDON/FABRIZIO GALLE MILAN C SIGNIFICANT EXPORT GROWTH Parallel to the continued capacity growth, figures from ICIS Consulting’s latest analysis show that the Middle East PE total export volumes could increase from 9.5m tonnes/year in 2011 to as much as 17.3m tonnes in 2020. Of this figure, 10.4m tonnes will be destined for Asia, up from 5.5m tonnes in 2011, and 4.2m tonnes will head to Europe, up from 2.6m “Average PE and PP plant utilization rates in the Middle East have been under pressure in recent years” Rex Features ommodity polymers such as polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), polystyrene (PS) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) are essentially global commodities, produced around the globe and, in large part, traded around the globe. As for the major polyolefins, PE and PP, the Middle East has built up a tremendous position over the years, largely through exploiting abundant, advantaged feedstocks and positioning itself to serve markets all around the world. Middle East producers are still committed to huge growth in polyolefin production. There are massive projects under way in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Abu Dhabi and Qatar and this wave of investment will bring them further huge quantities for both regional markets and export. Much of this next wave is scheduled to come onstream between 2012 and 2014, and further investments are under consideration that may materialize in the following three to five years. Conversely, the region’s PS industry – generalpurpose PS (GIPS) and high-impact PS (HIPS), but excluding expandable PS (EPS) – had seen no capacity increase for many years, until recently. New plants have now come onstream in Iran – an additional line by Tabriz Petrochemical in 2011, and Saudi Arabia – with two 100,000 tonne/year units started up by Saudi Polymers in 2012. Further future projects will be driven by demand and possibly by styrene availability. The Middle East, however, is a net importer of PVC, widely used in construction and packaging. Interest in significant investments in the region has historically been weak, with a limited development of the chloralkali chain. Projects so far are concentrated in Iran, which has an above-average developed domestic market in terms of per capita consumption. tonnes. Africa, too, is likely to receive consistent volumes from the Middle East, estimated at 1.8m tonnes in 2020, up from 1.1m tonnes in 2011. This continued growth of exports out of the Middle East and imports into Asia is perhaps the biggest single trend in the PE market. But one of the potentially interesting developments is growth of exports in this market out of North America, linked to shale investments. ICIS is currently forecasting an increase of about 1m tonnes of US exports in the 2012-2020 timeframe, from 2.7m tonnes to 3.7m tonnes, with material going mainly to Latin America and Asia, in relatively similar amounts. As producers in the Middle East ramp up the new PP capacities, exports will move up sharply from 3.6m tonnes in 2011 to 6.4m tonnes estimated for 2020. The main export destinations are the same as for PE: with Asia taking the main share of 2.9m tonnes in 2020, Europe 2.1m tonnes and Africa 0.8m tonnes. For PVC, the Middle East will continue to be a net importer, with net imports into the region decreasing slightly from 0.5m tonnes in 2011 to 0.4m tonnes in 2020. Material comes mainly from North America and Northeast Asia, with minor amounts being imported Large-scale petrochemical complexes have given the Middle East a strong position in the global commodity polymers market www.gpca.org.ae 2012 | GPCA Connecting the Gulf DIRECTORY | 29 from Europe and South Asia. For PS, the Middle East has capacity in advance of regional consumption since new capacity went onstream in Saudi Arabia. So the region is predicted to become a net exporter of 0.2m tonnes in 2020, after being a net importer of 0.1m tonnes in 2011. Given the Middle East’s rapid rise in polyolefins capacity, average PE and PP plant utilization rates in the region have been under pressure in recent years. Operations at most of these new plants are expected to increase gradually in years to come, and are estimated to achieve rates of over 90% within the next three to five years. Further pressure on PE operating rates may come from the US, due to the huge investments that will drive capacity expansion as a result of shale gas, with many plants expected to come onstream in the 201618 period. These projects are likely to increase pressure over utilization rates for polyolefins, in Europe as well. Operating rates for PE in this region are expected to remain level at just under 80% over the next six to seven years, following increased competition from cheaper imported material from the Middle East and the US, although there will be some progressive pickup from the 2011 trough. In terms of domestic demand, the Middle East region is reasonably fast-growing when it comes to polyolefins. ICIS Consulting forecasts see total demand for PE and PP in the region advancing by just under 6%/ year from 2012 to 2020, albeit from a relatively low level of per capita consumption – around 25kg/head in 2011. This annual growth rate is slightly higher than that forecast for China and Eastern Europe, and behind only India (8.0-8.5%/year) and the CIS and Africa, the latter coming from an even lower base. DEVELOPED MARKETS The developed markets can expect growth rates for polyolefins of only just over 2%/year, as per capita consumption is already high at 45-55kg/head and economic growth is sluggish. The picture in PVC is similar, with the Middle East set to enjoy demand growth of just over 5.5%/year, similar to China and behind only India (just under 7%/year). Per capita consumption in the region is around 6kg/ head, compared with 10-12kg/head in Western Europe and North America, where again growth rates are expected to be much lower at 1-2%/year between 2012 and 2020. For PS, we forecast growth in the Middle East at 4.5% to 5.0%/year, again from a small base. Turning to the global markets for these commodity polymers, we see PE demand is led by its use in film and sheet packaging and non-packaging applications, with other areas, such as pipe and blow-molded items, dominated by HDPE. PP has a much broader range of applications, across packaging, fibers and injected parts for automotive, consumers, electronics and other sectors. PVC demand is driven substantially by its use in construction, even with a number of different applica- Flickr Shell FEATURE New plant construction will boost polyolefin exports tions particularly for flexible PVC, such as flooring, coating and artificial leather. And PS, which is the smaller in terms of market size, finds its major outlets in electronics and other consumers, packaging (including food packaging), and a number of other outlets, including toys, refrigerators, and construction-related applications. In 2011, the global market size for the main commodity polymers was estimated as follows: PE, 77.1m tonnes, PP, 52.8m tonnes, PVC, 37.6m tonnes and PS, 11.3m tonnes, making an aggregate of 178.8m tonnes. In terms of annual growth rates, the aggregated trend was positive until 2007, but in 2008-2009 the global financial crisis had a substantial effect on polymers demand. This was followed by a general recovery in 2010 and a positive average growth in 2011, despite the considerable worsening of consumption since the second half of the year. On average over the period 2000-2011, annual growth rates for the four polymer types have been: PE, 4.0%; PP, 5.1%; PVC, 3.4% and PS, 0.4%. On a regional level, Europe, North America and Africa were worst hit by the crisis in 2011. In Europe, the collapse in demand has been due particularly to the economic performance of the Western economies, but a relatively better trend is expected for Central and Eastern European countries, particularly for Turkey. Polymers demand in North America looks to have lost its ability to grow, but much of this is to do with the contraction of the PVC market following a collapse of the construction sector, particularly in the US. The reason for a consumption breakdown in Africa is exclusively linked to the political turmoil in the North, but the region still remains one of the fastest growing in terms of polymers demand. In the coming years, fast demand growth for commodity polymers is also expected in Latin America, South Asia, China and the Middle East. Despite the still limited market size, the Middle East represents the fastest growing supplying region, and of course in Asia, investments are fed by the efforts to satisfy growing portions of regional demand. Given the Middle East’s rapid rise in commodity polymer production, it is not surprising to see some 30 | GPCA Connecting the Gulf DIRECTORY | 2012 regional producers making their way into the top rankings. In PE, for example, SABIC held a 7.1% share of the global output in 2011, corresponding to a capacity of 6.7m tonnes/year (capacity “rights” based on the controlled equity share of the subsidiary operating companies) – putting it at number three in the world. Iran’s NPC is also in the top 10 rankings, at seven, with 2.4m tonnes/year of capacity, expected to rise to 4.4m tonnes/year in 2016. In PP, two Middle East players feature in the top 10: SABIC (five) and Borealis (eight), based on 2011 controlled capacities of 2.9m tonnes/year and 2.2m tonnes/year, respectively. No Middle East players appear in the top 10 PS or PVC producers, which are largely dominated by US and Asian companies. MARKET SHARE The top 10 PE producers hold, and will continue to hold, about 50% of the market. Similarly, in PP, the top 10 hold more than 50%, a share that will decline slightly as new projects emerge in joint ventures with new entrants. The global PVC industry is much more fragmented, mainly due to several investments in China by a number of companies. Top producers hold around one-third of the world total. In PS, the market is much consolidated (about 56% was held by the top 10 producers in 2011), but there are still a number of small producers. Because of ongoing and planned investments (in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and China), this share will decline, but only a little. In conclusion, the global commodity polymer markets are under pressure, affected by volatility, and this is expected to persist, at least in the short term. Investments look “long” compared with fluctuating demand. Consumption growth is particularly constrained in the most mature markets, and is likely to remain linked to the eurozone debt crisis and the slow economic recovery in other countries, such as the US. Also, in faster-developing markets, policies will aim to limit speculation (and inflation), which could affect demand growth in the short and mid-term. In the future, demand growth will generally trend closer to GDP growth for all these polymers, while faster growth perspectives are likely for value-added products and niche applications, also in the most mature markets. Future investments are likely to be closer to economies with better growth perspectives, or where cost-advantaged resources are available. John Baker is global editor for custom publishing at ICIS. He has 30 years’ experience of reporting on the chemical industry and was for many years editor of European Chemical News, now ICIS Chemical Business. Go to www.icis.com Fabrizio Galiè joined Parpinelli TECNON (now part of ICIS Consulting) in 2005. As a member of the petrochemicals division, he contributes to the periodical multi-client reports and publications for plastics, as well as to single-client activities www.gpca.org.ae '!" &" #!+ CHEMANOL is a grass root, second generation petrochemical complex located in Jubail Industrial City of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, manufacturing premium grade Methanol Derivatives and encompasses the following products: - $("(&"% +"('"! - %"% +"!!'%' - * ! - %"% + - %"% +")%&!& - !"% +")%&!& - (#"!'#'!"% +$(&")% - '+"% - '+ !& - !'%+'%'" - "( "% ' These products have diverse applications including agricultural fertilizers, pharmaceuticals, solvents, intermediates, laminates, wood industry, plastics, paper and in the production of various types of concrete admixtures. Since its inception in 1989, CHEMANOL has earned the reputation of being a world class, dependable and quality conscious manufacturer possessing a very sophisticated marketing and logistical support systems to which many GCC and overseas customers can testify. The company is committed to advancing its leading position in the specialty chemicals by way of continuous investment in R&D work to tailor-make customer specific product formulations, particularly in the field of the Amino Resins. In-house research has facilitated development of several special product grades which reside in the domain of guarded technology. After the successful completion of its SR 2.4 billion expansion plans, CHEMANOL’s annual production capacity has reached to 1 million metric tons of formaldehyde, derivatives and other downstream methanol based products. Today, Chemanol is one of the world’s most integrated formaldehyde & derivatives producer having the largest production capacity in the Middle East and Africa region. ))) !"" (&+"(%!$(%&"! %'! !"" , PO Box 2101, Al Jubail 31951, Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia, Tel: +966 3 358 11 11, Fax: +966 3 358 35 92 , Novotel Business Park, Tower 3, 1st Floor, Dammam, Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia., Tel: + 966 3 814 46 85 /94, Fax: +966 3 814 46 78 Brief Overview: Farabi Petrochemicals Company(FPC) is one of the Global leaders in Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB) business and also co-produces Heavy Alkylates & Specialty Solvents FPC has its state of art manufacturing facility located in Jubail, Saudi Arabia and caters to its customers globally and has strategic storage locations in its markets Our Mission: We are committed to being a globally recognized leader in the Petrochemical business we operate. Towards this we shall continuously deliver superior Financial and Operating results and strive to exceed our Stakeholder’s expectation Our Vision: By 2014, we will position ourselves in the top quartile in the Global LAB business and grow our petrochemical product portfolio satisfying customer needs and achieve sustainable returns from the business Our Growth: FPC is pursuing on various growth initiatives as part of its Strategic Vision www.farabipc.com FEATURE Hyper Speed Evolution drives GCC petrochemical companies The past few decades have seen a “Hyper Speed” period of economic growth and industrial development in the GCC region. This also raises challenges for sustainability for GCC players DAN STARTA, JOSE ALBERICH AND LOUIS BESLAND A.T. KEARNEY DUBAI D riven by rising oil prices, government investments and a labor influx, companies in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region moved towards reaching maturity levels similar to leading global players, but over a significantly reduced time frame, a phenomenon we at A.T. Kearney call Hyper Speed Evolution. Although different GCC markets have accelerated at different rates, Hyper Speed Evolution typically consists of three distinct phases: “Launch”, when catalysts such as favorable natural resources, cheap labor and the ability to copy and improve from mature companies trigger rapid expansion; “Rapid growth”, the levering of an existing eco-system, importing competencies and exploiting gaps left by established players to catch up quickly with the global leaders; then, as companies approach maturity, they enter a stage known as the “Moment of truth”, where their strategic response determines the sustainability of their rapid growth. After years of investment and global expansion, the GCC petrochemicals industry has produced its own worldclass set of growth narratives. An example is the 30-year rise of Saudi Arabia-based SABIC, now the world’s fifth largest chemical producer, which can be contrasted with the trajectory of Germany’s BASF, a company founded in 1865 (see graph, page 36). BASF is the world’s largest chemicals maker with nearly $85bn (€66bn) in revenues in 2010. The next biggest companies, US-based Dow Chemical and ExxonMobil Chemical, were established in 1897 and 1870, respectively. All took over a century to evolve into the corporate giants they are today, while SABIC opened its first chemical plant in 1981. A convergence of factors fueled the transformation of these GCC producers to global proportions. Price shocks in the 1970s through to the mid-2000s catalyzed GCC oil industry development, producing an abundance of byproduct that petrochemicals companies utilized as feedstock. Rising prices also inflated feedstock costs for Western chemical producers, who subsequently viewed investments in GCC chemicals plants optimistically. Strategic partnerships were quickly formed, typically by way of joint ventures that facilitated knowledge transfers of plant operations and market understanding. GCC governments, motivated to increase employment opportunities and revenues, made investments and created regulations. These factors, combined with a surging global demand for plastics, set the stage for petrochemical prosperity. Players must introduce strategic and operational changes to counteract mounting pressures In all, Middle East producers added over 20m tonnes of annual ethylene capacity from 1999–2012, growing from 7% to 17% of the global supply, while growth capacity in Europe and North America essentially remained flat. Only Asia-Pacific, which is experiencing its own form of Hyper Speed Evolution, has kept pace. GCC petrochemical companies continue to ascend the Hyper Speed Evolution curve, making big leaps as large new plants are commissioned, acquisitions forged and corporate capabilities upgraded. Rex Features The region has really taken off in recent decades www.gpca.org.ae 2012 | GPCA Connecting the Gulf DIRECTORY | 33 FEATURE The Middle East has been transformed as a torrent of new capacity has come onstream Aramco, for instance, has developed an integrated oil refinery and petrochemical plant at Petro Rabigh, and is developing an even bigger integrated facility (Sadara) in partnership with Dow at Jubail. More expansions are planned by Saudi Arabia’s Tasnee and UAE’s Borouge and ChemaWEyaat, to name a few. Expansion projects within the region are expected to increase capacity by 8m tonnes/year (40% of current capacity) by 2016. The industry has created wealth, employment and expertise, yet there is a pressing number of threats that will challenge its dependency on the favorable conditions that drove the Hyper Speed growth. As the GCC petrochemicals industry looks ahead and charts its path to maturity, industry players must introduce strategic and operational changes to counteract mounting pressures due to a talent shortage, capital expenditure decisions and a need for new revenue streams. THIRST FOR TALENT Industrial sectors that evolve at Hyper Speed typically struggle to identify, hire and develop new talent fast enough, leaving experienced middle managers in short supply. Apart from temporary expatriate appointments used to plug holes, positions in technical areas such as IT and engineering remain vacant, forcing employees to take on extra responsibilities and requiring managers to spend more time supervising rather than focusing on strategic efforts. Building a winning organization therefore requires a long-term commitment to developing talent. Successful companies will encourage development with specific assistance and intervention throughout the learning curve. Successful companies should be able to: O Create awareness to transform students into potential recruits – providing scholarships and sponsorship, establishing partnerships with educational institutions, and encouraging the next generation to pursue studies in required fields. O Create knowledge to transform new employees into effective contributors and developing leaders – establishing corporate academies and global rotational programs, creating structured knowledge transfers (in alliances and joint ventures), and providing incentives for continuous learning. O Drive excellence to develop mid-level managers into future executives – identifying high-potential talent, establishing management rotations and leadership development programs, increasing performance management capabilities, and creating incentives for intrapreneurship. MAXIMIZING VALUE Reduced operations and feedstock costs have 34 | GPCA Connecting the Gulf DIRECTORY | 2012 enabled GCC plants to enjoy relatively high profitability, even as the industry reaches saturation and markets for construction contracting, raw materials and specialized equipment tighten. However, there are many opportunities for more cost-effective development of capital projects. CAPEX challenges are also prevalent outside Hyper Speed sectors. In a recent multi-industry survey of 62 international firms, including 14 chemical companies, A.T. Kearney found that 75% of capital projects were behind schedule and 63% were over-budget. The study also revealed key practices that distinguish leaders along the major dimensions of capital excellence. Successful companies will work quickly to embed long-term advantages in their organization around the following factors: O Capital strategy: Ensure capital investments are led by and aligned with long-term corporate strategy, rather than short-term requests from within units. In addition, leaders should customize financial return thresholds to reflect the specific risks and strategic context of each project. O Execution and operations: Adopt a project “portfolio” philosophy and standardize designs and approaches across projects wherever possible. Frontload projects with rigorous analysis to mature the design and involve procurement and supplier groups early in the process. www.gpca.org.ae Investing in Leading Petrochemical Projects QPIC is the largest private investor in Kuwait’s Petrochemical Industry. We are financially strong and actively investigating local, regional, and international opportunities along with well-established global leaders in the Oil & Gas field. www.qpic-kw.com FEATURE O Enablers: Closely align HR with their project funnel to help plan resource requirements and avoid shortfalls. They will also employ advanced risk management, which puts a monetary value on risk and provides a mechanism for evaluating and challenging program scope, requirements, and budgets. EVALUATING AND INTEGRATING With well-capitalized balance sheets, GCC petrochemical producers may be tempted to pursue growth through acquisitions, a strategy than can provide access to new markets, customers, technologies and human capital. But international M&A brings a host of challenges, from the logistics of working across great distances and time-zones, to the complexities of integrating different business cultures. Globally, over $151bn (€116bn) in chemical industry M&A deals closed in 2011. Yet evidence suggests that the majority of these will ultimately be value destructive. Forward-thinking companies should manage the entire life-cycle of the deal rigorously to avoid this common pitfall: O Target identification & strategic fit assessment: Ensure that the acquisition of the target corresponds with long-term strategic objectives and that the rationale for the acquisition is clearly understood and carried forward into subsequent planning and execution stages. O Due diligence: Validate the strategic hypothesis of the venture, identify potential risks and risk mitigation steps, and confirm that acquisition will be valuegenerating across a range of potential future scenarios. O Pre-close integration planning: Use clean room analysis to develop pre-close integration hypotheses, understand critical enablers, and plan actions that will begin integrating systems, leveraging new talent, realizing synergies, and instilling confidence in target employees from the outset. O Post-close integration execution: Drive the integration forward and rigorously manage critical activities to ensure objectives are met. Ensure that key talent in the target firm is identified early and remains engaged throughout the process. Over the past 30 years, the region’s petrochemical firms have developed new plant assets quickly to capitalize on readily available supplies of low-cost feedstock, establishing a buoyant commodity chemicals environment. However, some have turned downstream towards new applications and more specialized, higher-value chemicals in order to enhance value creation as well as drive additional regional economic development to employ the growing youth population. Still, the drive into downstream activities is nascent, and the ecosystem needed to support these activities is still developing. However, this drive is crucial, not SABIC HAS ECHOED BASF’S SUCCESS $ bn (revenue) 100 BASF SABIC 80 60 40 20 0 1970 2011 SOURCE: Company data ETHYLENE CAPACITY BY REGION 1991-2012 m tonnes/year ! ! ! 1991 2012 SOURCE: Oil & Gas Journal The drive into downstream activities is nascent, and the ecosystem needed to support these activities is still developing only for capturing new sources of value creation, but also to cater to the aspirations of the large young population of the GCC countries. Chemical companies can contribute to the four “I’s” that will drive the development of downstream clusters in their industry: O Ingredients – The economic enablers that provide the necessary environment for business activity. Downstream clusters depend on the combined involvement of chemical companies, governments, banks, customers, and support services. Chemical companies can contribute by establishing regional market intelligence on downstream opportunities, assisting with the development of local talent and supporting companies to drive innovation. O Initiators – The catalysts that drive return on investment and activate business. The development of downstream clusters require strategic investments into pre-existing downstream companies or into new companies created to fill a position in the value stream. Chemical companies 36 | GPCA Connecting the Gulf DIRECTORY | 2012 can also incentivize entrepreneurship by acting as venture capital investors and shouldering the risks faced by the entrepreneur. O Incubators – The accelerators that provide business support services to develop successful entrepreneurial companies. Chemical companies can help to incubate new downstream enterprises by maintaining a committed supply of raw material, sharing operational best practices, mentoring entrepreneurs, and providing access to equipment and resources for early-stage product development. O Innovators – The groups and individuals who can drive the development of new technologies and approaches. Chemical companies can drive cluster development through their own on-going research efforts, their active involvement with local academic institutions, and their engagement with the local innovation community. THE ROAD AHEAD The GCC petrochemicals companies cannot bank on the continuation of Hyper Speed growth as the market evolves. Already, shale gas is driving down the cost of feedstock in North America, while China’s Sinopec continues to build capacity close to the key Asian markets. As market competition intensifies and industries approach maturity, each company will face its own version of the “Moment of truth”. From this point, it is vital to formulate new strategies and defense mechanisms against the common pitfalls of fast growth. In addition, new pressures from the global developments and requirements around critical issues such as sustainability have demanded more from local producers. Being emerging/emerged global players, they are held to the same standards as any other company. However, these standards can be envisioned as an opportunity for these companies to demonstrate global leadership. Fundamentally, for these companies, future success lies in improving their core business capabilities and strengthening their talent base, while extending their growth through strategic investments in assets, partnerships, and new ventures. As regional dynamics change, corporate growth will inevitably be found on new terms, but there also exists a broader opportunity for GCC companies to act as economic enablers to their countries and the wider Gulf region. Dan Starta (left) is partner and managing director at A.T. Kearney, and Jose Alberich (center) and Louis Besland (right) are partners. All are based in Dubai, United Arab Emirates www.gpca.org.ae © Mazen Abusrour, Christophe Gavelle, e-Motion International YOUR INNOVATIVE PARTNER FROM PAST TO FUTURE SATORP, a world class refinery and petrochemical complex, supplying tomorrow’s needs %HLQJ D PDMRU LQ WKH UHƬQLQJ DQG SHWURFKHPLFDO LQGXVWU\ PDQDJLQJ KXJH SURMHFWV DQG RSHUDWLQJ VDIHO\ demands more than leading-edge innovation. It also requires the ability to listen carefully to your needs and aspirations and to think “out of the box”. For almost 90 years, Total has been the committed, reliable, innovative partner whom you can count on to support sustained development across the Middle East. www.total.com FEATURE Investing in a stronger supply chain pays off Returns today are important, but so too are the considerations of future value. Implementing planning tools and ongoing management processes are critical for companies to enhance their supply chain OMAR BOULOS AND STEPHEN PEARCE ACCENTURE ABU DHABI F or chemical businesses in the Gulf, the need to look to the future has never been more important. This arises from a number of converging trends. The financial convulsions sweeping around the global economy are changing demand patterns, shifting them from west to east. Also, socio-economic policies are seeking to create strong and prosperous local businesses within a diversified economy. Continuing to attract investment is critical, and stakeholders and investors naturally look to the future sustainability of a business when weighing up their investment decisions and allocations. Accenture’s experience suggests that the future value analysts ascribe to the bulk chemicals business is considerably lower than for companies in the specialty chemicals business, which reinforces the imperative for chemical producers in the Gulf to move further down the value chain. LOCAL TALENT Addressing all these challenges requires concerted effort on a number of fronts. The push by many states in the Gulf to create local businesses that can compete successfully on the global stage demands the development of local talent to drive greater economic diversification. And that, in turn, requires working in new partnerships with existing global players to acquire knowledge and capabilities that will underpin future global competitiveness. One of the major opportunities for chemical businesses in the region is meeting the demand for more specialized products from high-growth East Asian markets. Fulfilling this would bring greater revenue, and move businesses further along the value chain. Less dependence on raw material prices and greater flexibility to introduce value pricing for those specialty compounds and products would deliver more responsive, agile business models for the future. But delivering to these new markets requires new capabilities. The chemicals supply chain is long and complex, with many “moving parts” and third parties involved in the journey from raw materials to final product delivery at the end customer. Production lead times, logistics and customer services requirements all need to take into account considerable variables and respond to shifts in demand signals. To address that complexity successfully, businesses need to transform their supply chain planning and management to operate in a new, more responsive way. Joint ventures between local companies and multinational chemical businesses illustrate the direction of the market. Each party to those joint ventures has clear business logic behind it. For local businesses, it is the opportunity to contribute to the region’s economic diversification by developing a greater, highervalue product range, generating employment opportunities and developing knowledge exchange. For global chemical manufacturers, there is a significant advantage play. They acquire cost advantages from input prices; they improve their access to profitable downstream growth and can grow their innovation-driven business serving the high margin markets for specialty products. As well as clear business opportunities, there are 38 | GPCA Connecting the Gulf DIRECTORY | 2012 also any number of major challenges associated with developing these joint ventures. These range from the major complexity and scale of investment in capital projects required to help achieve capacity, to the softer, cultural issues associated with integrating different businesses. But in this article, we focus on the challenges associated with supply chain planning and management in the context of Gulf businesses’ move from bulk to specialty products to address new markets and new customers. One answer that many businesses will reach for is the adoption of more sophisticated supply chain planning tools. While these are likely to play a major role in the development of more agile and responsive planning, they do not, on their own, offer an instant solution. To be effective, they have to be seen as part of a wider capability development and approach. PLANNING TOOLS The broad range of functionality offered by today’s planning tools is impressive. But in the absence of a targeted plan, the depth and sophistication on offer can be a double-edged sword. An effective supply chain planning transformation therefore needs to start with the business vision of how the new approach will help achieve higher performance. That vision must be translated into a supply chain planning roadmap and quantified with a business case. Companies need to document their performance and evaluate the costs and benefits of moving to a new planning technology. That will require them to identify current pain points, and the capabilities they need to address them. By examining these challenges, companies will be able to develop an understanding of the business value and cost of implementing each new capability. They need to reflect the benefits they expect to achieve, as well as having a clear idea of the metrics that will be used to track performance. For example, Gulf chemical producers’ move from bulk to specialty chemicals changes the planning approach and needs to be reflected in the measures that will track performance. That includes, for www.gpca.org.ae example, focusing on controlling inventory and optimizing accounts payable and receivable to drive down levels of working capital. Implementing a planning tool should take place within a wider organizational change context. And that is particularly important in the light of the new direction being taken by companies in the Gulf as they seek greater value downstream with the development of new, more specialized products to address demand from new markets. ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE Many chemical companies fail to see the full benefit of supply chain planning initiatives because they may not be fully aware of the importance or magnitude of the organizational change involved. For example, new supply chain planning tools often require closer collaboration and communication, and higher levels of integration in terms of processes and information. Perhaps most important, in the context of Gulf businesses, is the need to prepare people to succeed with the new tools. In other words, they might need to have the appropriate people with the appropriate capabilities in place. That would involve considerable investment in training and even acquisitions to ensure relevant knowledge transfer. A supply chain planning tool will not deliver fullscale benefits all in one go. A gradualist approach is therefore critical. Planning is a journey of a number of steps. Trying to leap ahead all at once is almost a The chemicals supply chain is both long and complex, with many “moving parts” guaranteed route to failure. Supply chain planning tools require all the other skill sets to be developed simultaneously. Although this may be slow, it is a vital process to secure sustainable improvement. The adoption of tools needs to be aligned with the development of the skills required to make them work. Moving from fairly rudimentary supply planning tools, such as a spreadsheet, to a multifunctional planning system is too great a transition to make in one leap. Companies should start with simple planning models using integrated information. As they become more comfortable with the tools, additional functionality can be introduced, creating a step-by-step journey to the desired end state and avoiding the confusion and disruption of quickly introducing more complex approaches. This step journey naturally implies that as companies move forward, they need to continually readdress the business case and focus on clear benefit realization. The business case process cannot be seen as a one-off, upfront activity. However, the introduction of even relatively simple, integrated new tools would usually bring significant improvements. They provide more rapid access to better information, and the organization can use one set of numbers to support alignment and improve decision-making. In taking this approach, it is important that the business strategy drives supply chain strategy and, ultimately, planning. Chemical companies with best-in-class supply chain performance often establish a business-rule framework to monitor that this link is in place, keeping supply chain execution in line with business strategy. SALES AND OPERATIONS A powerful, but often overlooked, correlation is that the benefit derived from supply chain management technology is directly related to the health and efficiency of the organization’s sales and operations planning (S&OP) process. S&OP is a management process that cuts across functional boundaries to help ensure that the company’s longer-term business plans are achieved. Accenture research on supply chain planning has identified several S&OP leading practices used by successful chemical firms. These practices include operating to one set of numbers; having common tools, calendar and terminology; and driving the process across all business activities. Having the right information available to the right people at the right time is critical, too. S&OP can be seen as a purely process-driven set of activities. Effective information involves the development of data that has been grouped and correlated into the decisionmaking framework to enable effect execution of S&OP. If that information is missing, or hard to pull together CHEMICAL (EX PHARMA) INDUSTRY SHIPMENT GROWTH, 2006-2011 (CAGR %) Africa Asia-Pacific Eastern Europe Latin America Middle East NAFTA Western Europe 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2006-11 3 180 9 28 9 134 116 3 185 9 28 12 125 115 3 191 8 27 11 132 117 3 201 8 28 14 136 117 3 215 9 31 14 151 121 4 223 9 32 15 154 124 4 239 10 34 17 158 127 4 262 10 35 19 170 129 4 261 11 36 20 150 123 4 266 10 35 21 138 110 4 294 12 37 24 159 120 4 306 13 38 26 161 122 2.80% 5.10% 6.00% 2.40% 8.50% 0.40% -0.70% Output (value-added in real LCU) Chemicals (NACE rv2 20) US$. Source: Oxford Economics www.gpca.org.ae 2012 | GPCA Connecting the Gulf DIRECTORY | 39 Rex Features FEATURE FEATURE in one place because of complex organizational structures (which is likely to be the case with many joint ventures and affiliate structures), effective S&OP management would be difficult to achieve. S&OP relies on supply chain management’s ability to balance demand and supply. S&OP’s primary focus should be to enhance profit by balancing sales, asset utilization, inventory and customer service. Supply chain planning technology plays a key role in this process because it enables companies to create future projections of each of these four profit drivers. By linking the two activities, companies can enable planners to make day-to-day decisions that reflect overall strategic objectives. SYSTEM GO-LIVE The efforts to implement a planning system inevitably take considerable time and resources. Understandably, many companies zero-in on the system go-live as their objective. Unfortunately, focusing on that target can soon lead to problems. The enthusiasm that greets the new solution can wear off quickly, leading to old habits re-establishing themselves. Workarounds can creep back in and old tools such as spreadsheets can re-emerge. If planning tools are not embraced and put to work, no business benefits are achieved and executives begin to question the value of the solution. To avoid that, companies need to establish effective post-go-live governance processes. These processes should focus on stabilizing the new approach and driving its adoption. Companies can monitor uptake and use of the tools, and identify problems that might indicate a need for communication, training or other interventions. This phase can also act as a clean-up period because the monitoring will often uncover any issues that were not properly addressed in the initial implementation. SALES AND OPERATIONS PLANNING (S&OP) PROCESS S&OP process Top management Functional leadership Supply chain planning model Supply chain planning end users Supply chain planning tool Supply chain planning techonology utilization Effective business planning requires business engagement at all levels in the organization and supply chain planning tool utilization SOURCE: Accenture www.gpca.org.ae The business process owners should be a team of senior executives who operate on a part-time basis, outside their normal jobs, to sponsor business process excellence for a given functional area. This executive team should be supported by a team of businessprocess and supply chain planning technology specialists that focus on stabilization and ongoing process improvement. Accenture research shows that the companies that were most successful at planning transformations made the role of process specialist a full-time position. For many organizations, this will be a new role requiring new capabilities. And it is not simply governance of the solution and process that is important. Ongoing data governance is also critical. Data needs to reflect the changes taking place in the external environment. Supply chains are dynamic and so the data that underpins planning needs to change in line with those developments. “Supply chain planning is a journey rather than a destination. Continuous improvement is critical” This means the planning system needs to be flexible enough to add new elements when they come online. So, for example, a supply chain planning solution may not, at the point of implementation, include a new market. This drives a need for skills that enable the tool to be re-implemented when new data elements – customers, products, shipping methods, processes, and so on – arise. The original model needs to be refreshed to avoid becoming obsolete, or risk no longer reflecting the reality of the market that is being planned for. Companies often believe that once supply chain planning tools are in place and in use, the effort is complete, and the expected business benefits will follow more or less automatically. Yet, even with the most careful planning, real-world conditions and changes will often require adjustments to planning processes, and making these adjustments requires continuing management. Supply chain planning is a journey rather than a destination. Continuous improvement is critical. That means not relying on an original business case. Markets will be subject to frequent change – particularly in view of addressing new markets and products. Those changes will impact on the need to refresh an existing business case as well as tracking the business benefits post-go-live. A key component of that effort is the effective management of business key performance indicators and operational indicators. These should be based on the expected value identified in the business case (and reflecting changes as they arise), and enable companies to track progress towards their business goals. As businesses form new partnerships and joint ventures to address new opportunities, they will encounter a number of challenges. Growth markets will demonstrate volatile demand in the early years. Supply chain planning in such market conditions will need to reflect and accommodate those fluctuations. The right capabilities will therefore be critical. The complexity of planning requires the development of a new skill set that is largely unfamiliar to businesses that have grown out of a more traditional engineering background with associated competencies. Getting the right products, to the right place at the right time is not yet seen as a discipline with its own distinct career path. Planning is often perceived as something of a career cul-de-sac rather than a route to the top. That needs to change. But the capability uplift required is considerable. The challenge for businesses in the Gulf is compounded by the need to deliver to a localization agenda. Developing the capacity and resources to improve supply chain planning should focus on local content, which will take time. However, although this is a major challenge, there are considerable grounds for optimism. The flow of high-quality graduates from local universities in the Gulf region is impressive. Attracting that talent to a career in planning will require rethinking the function itself to create a path that offers a varied, rewarding and challenging career progression. CENTERS OF EXCELLENCE And it is an imperative that applies not only to attracting highly-skilled people, but also to their retention and development. That may require developing centers of excellence and an internal consulting model so that planners’ skills are put to use in new and different contexts and their skills are rightly seen as highly prized strategic assets. Supply chain planning offers the promise of significant business benefits for chemical companies, but the achievement of those benefits relies on the way it is implemented and managed. It calls for business transformation, which is not easy, and it requires a disciplined, systematic approach. Gulf chemical companies that embrace supply chain planning, which is business oriented and takes into account the people, processes, technologies and strategies involved, will find it worthwhile in the journey to achieving optimum performance. Omar Boulos is a senior executive in Accenture’s Resources operating group and managing director of Accenture in the Middle East. He is located in Abu Dhabi, UAE Stephen Pearce is a senior manager in Accenture’s Resources operating group specialising in operations supply chain and S&OP; he is located in Abu Dhabi 2012 | GPCA Connecting the Gulf DIRECTORY | 41 FEATURE The changing role of chemical clusters Chemical clusters and industrial cities are a well-established concept in the Gulf region, but a new approach is needed ALEXANDER KELLER AND JAAP KALKMAN ROLAND BERGER LONDON I n 1975, Jubail, Saudi Arabia, was announced as the site of a new industrial city. Since then, the Gulf has developed numerous industrial clusters. Today, Jubail supplies over 10% of global demand for petrochemicals and is home to more than 45 companies and 120 chemical and petrochemical plants, producing more than 40 products. Similarly, the Al Ruwais Industrial Complex in Abu Dhabi, founded by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) in 1982, is the site of several major petrochemical plants, including the world’s largest ethane cracker, with 1.5m tonnes/year of ethylene capacity. Meanwhile, the Mesaieed Industrial Area in Qatar, through which a large part of the country’s economy flows, is home, among other things, to an expanding oil refinery, a fertilizer plant and a petrochemical complex. Chemical clusters in the Gulf center around the region’s national oil companies (NOCs). They benefit from the synergies arising from locating refining and petrochemical operations next to each other. Over three decades, petrochemical companies in the Gulf have leveraged their favorable access to ethane-based feedstock, economies of scale, integration and cuttingedge processing technology to build a highly profitable petrochemical industry, based on the global export of low-cost petrochemical commodities, in particular to rapidly growing economies in Asia. COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE Stranded gas has been the key enabler of the Gulf petrochemical industry. With few alternative uses and pricing at opportunity cost level, ethane has long represented the chemical industry’s biggest competitive advantage. It has also helped diversify the sources of revenue for regional governments, reducing their focus on the export of crude oil. But today the Gulf petrochemicals industry finds itself at a crossroads. It is increasingly faced with competing demand for gas from alternative uses, such as electricity generation and water desalination. Some ethane crackers in the region are operating at reduced capacity because of feedstock shortages, resulting in lower production levels at derivative plants. The Gulf petrochemicals industry also faces the challenge of competing with shale gas in the US and China in the mid-term. The new producers’ access to shale-gas-based www.gpca.org.ae ethane feedstock eats into Gulf producers’ competitive advantage, while exports of ethylene derivatives to the European and Chinese markets face new competition. Finally, the major chemical companies are increasingly shifting their investments toward shale gas reserves at the expense of the Gulf region. With the decreasing availability of advantageous ethane-based feedstock and the increasing competitive pressure from new shale gas-based petrochemical producers, the Gulf needs to prepare to capitalize on potential opportunities in its own chemical industry. GROWING PRESSURES In addition to developments in the global petrochemicals landscape, key changes are also occurring closer to home. Demographic pressure is growing in the Middle East, and the middle class in developing countries is expanding fast. These factors have a major influence on the future of the chemical industry in the Gulf. The MENA (Middle East/North Africa) region, in particular, is experiencing a demographic boom, with high birth rates, declining mortality and an extremely young population. Close to half the population is under 20 years old and will enter the labor market over the next decade. Millions of jobs will be needed in the coming years. Also, the rapid rise of the middle class in developing countries such as China and India will continue to drive demand for motor vehicles, electronic products, construction materials, drugs and other goods. All of these require chemicals for their production. The increasing demand for downstream chemicals represents a clear growth opportunity for the Gulf. Governments in the Gulf have recognized the importance of diversifying their economies. They know they need to attract wider industrial investment. After all, this is the key ingredient in achieving sustainable growth, improving standards of living, promoting wealth, creating jobs and developing new technology and expertise. To capture the added value currently being exported in petrochemical products, the Gulf region must develop its downstream chemical industry. Such a move would also create valuable employment opportunities. Countries in the region face five major challenges: O Limited availability of feedstock – The production of a wider range of downstream chemicals requires more complex feedstock. In response to the shortage The Gulf petrochemicals industry finds itself at a crossroads. It is increasingly faced with competing demand for gas from alternative usages, such as electricity generation and water desalination of ethane, petrochemical producers in the Gulf have already started shifting away from gas-based feedstock towards heavier naphtha-based feedstock. However, unlike ethane, the price of naphtha is sensitive to the price of oil. It is a globally traded product based on world markets. Hence, using naphtha as feedstock destroys some of the cost advantages that Gulf producers have enjoyed over the past three decades. O Restricted access to technology – To move downstream, chemical companies have to develop (or acquire) technology and expertise. The production of downstream chemicals tends to be fragmented; technologies are less broadly licensed by their providers. Companies looking to move downstream are therefore likely to have to establish partnerships with firms already active in the relevant areas, that have their own proprietary technology. Only a few home-grown companies in the Gulf have sufficient scale, access to feedstock and adequate financial resources to attract foreign partners. O Limited market access – Companies selling downstream chemicals need an innovative route to market. Unlike petrochemicals, chemicals with greater added value cannot be sold using an offtake model only. Stronger interaction and collaboration with customers – and even end-use industries – is needed. Unfortunately, not all chemical companies in the Gulf currently have the necessary supply chain, distribution infrastructure, market expertise and presence to make a successful move downstream. O Moderate integration along the value chain – To be competitive, a downstream chemical industry requires integrated players right along the value chain. In an environment dominated by high capital costs and a small feedstock advantage, companies have to collaborate, even across borders, to achieve advanced levels of operational and production efficiency. O Limited demand from end-use industries – Important end-use industries such as the automotive industry, electronics, plastics and packaging, and home appliances are currently developing in the Gulf. These industries have privileged access to the entire Middle East – an area with a population half that of the European Union – and to fast-growing Asian and African countries. How these chemical-consuming industries develop over the coming years is critical for the development of the downstream chemical industry in the Gulf. POSSIBLE RESPONSES To move down the chemical value chain, the Gulf has to develop a new approach to chemical clusters. Ideally, this will combine the existing strengths of the clusters in the Middle East with the principles of more traditional chemical clusters in Europe – clusters that have developed organically over time. For each of the challenges above, a fitting response exists. By following the five steps below, chemical clusters 2012 | GPCA Connecting the Gulf DIRECTORY | 43 Matt Belshaw FEATURE A new generation of clusters have a key role to play in shaping the downstream development of the Gulf’s chemical industry in the Gulf can assume a new role for the future: O Ensure feedstock availability along the value chain – Refinery-based integration will remain key for the Gulf’s chemical industry. However, developing a downstream chemical industry will require new naphtha crackers. The Gulf’s chemical clusters need to ensure a secure, diverse feedstock supply, plus a high level of integration with commodity chemical manufacturers. This will give them a broader, less volatile product portfolio and compensate for the loss of valuable margin from ethane-based products. O Develop access to technology – Successfully developing a downstream chemical industry also depends on access to cutting-edge process technologies. Given the limited timeframe, these technologies can be accessed only with the help of international companies. Strong research and development is also required to ensure continuous product development and improvement, hence sustainable success. In their new role, the Gulf’s chemical clusters should aim to provide a competitive location for small, medium-sized and large companies, both local and foreign. Only by so doing can they hope to attract innovation and new technologies. O Develop market access – To market downstream chemical products, a competitive route to market is essential. One element of the new role of chemical clusters in the Gulf will be to ensure the development of efficient logistics and infrastructure systems to meet the growing needs of producers and converters at home and abroad. O Ensure integration along the value chain – Improved cost-competitiveness and synergies from integration along the value chain are the core advantage of traditional chemical clusters. The new generation of chemical clusters needs to build on this principle. At the same time, they must focus on facilitating the availability of competitive feedstock and raw materials for all participants along the value chain. They should also aim to help integrate small and medium-sized enterprises and even start-ups. The clusters require a critical number of actors along the value chain to ensure competitive fundamental conditions, the prerequisite for a sustainable and diversified chemical industry. O Establish integration with end-use industries – Perhaps the most important element in chemical clusters’ new role will be integration with key end-use industries. The Gulf’s chemical industry will no longer be primarily standalone and export-oriented. An integrated chemical industry has to become a pillar upon which key end-use industries are built and developed. This new approach to cluster development requires the close involvement of all stakeholders, such as other suppliers (for example, the aluminium industry), policymakers and end-use industries. It also offers the benefits of economic development that goes far beyond the chemical industry. SHAPING THE FUTURE Throughout the region, governments will continue to play an important role in shaping the downstream development of the chemical industry, actively supporting the new generation of chemical clusters. To ensure downstream integration, they must incentivize the production of naphtha-based petrochemicals and selectively prioritize the allocation of raw materials along the value chain. Policymakers must seek to attract foreign investors with leading technologies by providing special incentives, such as lower tax rates or duties, favorable conditions for expatriate employees, the duty-free import of equipment and attractive flows of goods between countries. Most importantly, industrial development 44 | GPCA Connecting the Gulf DIRECTORY | 2012 programs should ensure that chemical clusters develop in line with industrial cities and end-use industries. To exploit the full potential of downstream integration, policymakers must co-ordinate growth on both sides. Over the past decade, governments in the Gulf have begun to support the downstream expansion of their chemical industries. So far, results have been mixed. Initial projects involving plastic processing centers, such as the Abu Dhabi Polymers Park and Rabigh Conversion Industrial Park, faced a number of challenges. They therefore had difficulty attracting investment and failed to achieve critical mass. Foreign investors welcomed the low utility costs, but found it hard to secure favorable agreements on raw materials with local producers. Also, uncompetitive supply chain infrastructures and untapped synergies between different members of the clusters meant that the projects were less successful than initially expected. Future chemical clusters can learn from these mistakes. Having completed Jubail I in 2005, the Saudi government decided to further develop its foremost industrial city with a second large project, Jubail II. The objective was to expand and upgrade its downstream chemical industry. Policymakers involved a wide range of companies along the value chain. Two mixedfeedstock refinery-integrated chemical projects, Satorp (a joint venture between Saudi Aramco and French oil and petrochemicals major Total) and Sadara Chemical Company (a joint venture between Saudi Aramco and US major Dow Chemical) are to provide the broad commodity product portfolio required. Already, more than 40 companies have projects in Jubail II. Initiatives aimed at developing a one-stop shop for investors will attract an increasing number of companies and technologies over the coming years. www.gpca.org.ae FEATURE The major agent behind the move downstream in Saudi Arabia is the National Industrial Clusters Development Program (NICDP). This program’s aim is to diversify the economy by expanding manufacturing from 11% to 20% of GDP, and doubling the proportion of technology-based manufactured products from 30% to 60%. The NICDP supports the formation of small and medium-sized enterprises in five fast-growing, export-oriented industrial sectors: automotive, minerals and metal processing, solar energy products, plastics and packaging, and home appliances. DOWNSTREAM INTEGRATION The Saudi approach is to develop the chemical industry alongside key end-use industries. Downstream integration of the chemical industry provides the products demanded by end-use industries. In turn, end-use industries generate demand for specialty and commodity chemicals. Ultimately, the chemical and end-use industry clusters create new job opportunities and increase the country’s level of value creation. A new age has dawned for the chemical industry in the Gulf. The changing shape of the global petrochemical industry, demographic developments in the Middle East and increasing global demand for chemicals make a move down the value chain more necessary – and more attractive – than ever before. Faced with these challenges, the chemical industry has to find a new role for their clusters to achieve successful, sustainable downstream integration. Crucial factors include competitive feedstock, access to technology and markets, close integration along the value chain and the parallel development of chemical clusters and key end-use industries. By positioning an integrated chemical industry alongside key chemical-consuming industries, governments across the Gulf can reap the benefits of added value, sustainable growth and new employment opportunities in an increasingly knowledge-based economy. Jaap Kalkman is a senior partner at Roland Berger’s Middle East office with a total of 18 years of consulting and private equity experience. He lives in the GCC and focuses on clients in oil and gas, utilities, chemicals, government and private equity in the Middle East and Asia Alexander Keller is a partner at Roland Berger Strategy Consultants with global responsibility for Practice Group Chemicals. His role includes evaluating the chemicals and petrochemicals markets in western/eastern Europe and Asia, with a focus on China and India, assessing appropriate growth/entry strategies. He also conducts operational excellence programs, including process optimization, asset footprint optimization and comprehensive cost reduction programs in all business areas along the value chain www.gpca.org.ae The changing shape of the global petrochemical industry, demographic developments in the MIddle East and increasing global demand for chemicals make a move down the value chain more necessary More Experienced. More Dynamic. 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(Q-Chem) is a Qatari company owned by Qatar Petroleum (QP) and Chevron Phillips Chemical International Qatar Holdings LLC (CPCIQ). QP owns 51 percent of Q-Chem and CPCIQ owns 49 percent. The Q-Chem facility is a world-class integrated petrochemical plant capable of producing high-density and medium density polyethylene (HDPE & MDPE), 1-hexene and other products, using state-of-the-art technology provided by Chevron Phillips Chemical, a major integrated producer of chemicals and plastics. (CPCIQ). , The Europe, Middle East, and Africa 4 4 اﻟـﺘـﺰاﻣـﻨﺎ ﻧﺤـﻮ اﻻﺳﺘﺪاﻣﺔ Marlex® well suited for products . LP AlphaPlus® Sulphonates FEATURE Logistics investment needed as trade grows DP World Enhancing efficiencies in the supply chain is imperative for port operators in the Middle East and is a cornerstone of DP World’s strategy for its operations at Jebel Ali DP World, the world’s third largest marine terminal operator, aims to offer an end-to-end supply chain solution at Jebel Ali in Dubai MARK WHITFIELD MOJACAR, SPAIN P orts are integral to the industrial supply chain and play an important part in handling and delivering product in the Middle East region. In addition to modalities, systems are required to bring in efficiencies across enablers in the supply chain, allowing them to remain competitive in a dynamic market affected by a range of external factors. This requires partners to share information, data, transactions, processes, methodology and systems – to work in unison. Leading global port operator DP World, the world’s third largest marine terminal operator, is a significant contributor to implementing these efficiencies. Trade influences the evolution of the supply chain, especially the way in which cargo is handled by maritime transport, which today accounts for 90% of all international trade. The industry’s needs have become increasingly intricate and complex, and to a large extent customized over the years. By virtue of the Middle East region’s higher growth rates and the increasing demand on different commodities and services, governments in the region have invested in infrastructure and industrial clusters in the petrochemical and other downstream industries. The Gulf region has become a leading producer of petrochemicals and its global market share will grow in the next five years. GPCA estimates the Gulf region’s share in the world petrochemical industry will grow from 15% now to 20% by 2015, with Saudi Arabia targeting a 10% share in the global sector. There is also significant growth in the aluminum and iron and steel industries. The total production capacity of aluminum smelters in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region is expected to reach almost 5m tonnes/ year by 2015. The Gulf Aluminium Council (GAC) and GCC share of global production in 2010 was estimated at 7%. Growth is also occurring in pharmaceuticals, ceramics, glass, cement and machinery. DP World, as a leading port operator, contributes by bringing its experience and competence in a strategic level. “And we innovate,” says DP World senior vice president and managing director, UAE region, Mohammed Al Muallem. “At Jebel Ali in Dubai, our focus goes beyond ‘bigger ships, deeper draft and larger cranes’.” For example, in polyethylene (PE) exports, DP World has been converting break bulk to containerized cargo for several years. This involves discharging bagged polymer pellets from general cargo vessels, storing it 48 | GPCA Connecting the Gulf DIRECTORY | 2012 “Our focus goes beyond ‘bigger ships, deeper draft and larger cranes’” MOHAMMED AL MUALLEM Managing director, UAE region, DP World in purpose-built sheds, segregating and loading the material into containers to meet received orders. This offers an end-to-end supply chain solution. Al Muallem adds: “Such efficiencies add value to global supply chain systems, creating synergies across players in the industry. It is this belief in the benefits of a seamless supply chain that drives our business at Jebel Ali and positions us as the gateway port of choice for the wider Middle East, India and Africa regions.” The port operator has begun to expand its Terminal 2 as well as constructing a new third terminal. The operator will be able to simultaneously handle 10 of next-generation mega-container vessels, each of which can carry up to 18,000 containers. With these expansions, Jebel Ali’s capacity will increase to 19m TEU (20ft equivalent units) by 2014. “We will continue to invest where and when our customers need us,” Al Muallem says. “That has been our strategy from the beginning, and today we are the third largest marine terminal operator in the world. “We continue to remain confident about the longterm outlook for our industry, for Dubai and the UAE.” Mark Whitfield is a freelance business journalist based in Mojacar, Almeria, Spain www.gpca.org.ae