Renewable energy in Germany – today and future

German-Japanese
Wind Energy Symposium
Tokyo, 26 February 2013
Harald Neitzel
Federal Ministry for Environment,
Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU)
February 2013
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Introducing Remarks
• Germany`s Energy Transition, in particular expansion of RE, under
strong considerations;
• Transition is running: 1) success factor RE share on electricity market
2012 22 % (2000 6 %); some days about 50 %; 2) progress on heat
market and energy saving; 3) stagnation in transport sector; 4) some
delays on energy effciency and saving
• however: usually only bad news are communicated such as „cost out
of control“, „grid expansion fails“, „RE cannot guarantee energy
security“ etc.
• electricity flows with neighbouring countries: surplus abroad 17 TWh
(2012), in NDL, AUT and SUI (2011 only 6 TWh);
• at present: several controversial discussions in Germany on how to
design next steps, even within Ministries, Parliament, political Parties,
business sector, researchers or NGO;
• however: strong consensus to proceed on „Energy Transition“ and
outstanding role of RE in principle due to several rationales:
February 2013
2
German „Energiewende“ 2011
• Strong attention of Fukushima Catastrophie by German public
against background of controversial assessments of Nuclear
Power since end of 70`ies
• Role of Nuclear Energy Policy (bridging technology) was reconsidered and consensus was reached among (almost) all
stakeholders to phase out nuclear energy by 2022 (Decisions
of 6 June 2011):
• previous climate policy programme was enforced, bundle of
new measures were included, in particular
• Accelerating transformation of energy system, e.g. off-shore
wind, grid-extension, energy efficiency
February 2013
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Phasing Out Nuclear Energy
Source: UBA
February 2013

Resulting from a continuous controversial
debate in society and politics since late 70ies
(Harrisbury, Green Party, Foundation of BMU
after Tschernobyl)

1st Phasing-Out Resolution 2000; however
prolongation 2010 by 10 years; “bridging
technology” (no consensus)

Enhanced discussion after the nuclear
disaster in Fukushima: broad consensus to
phase out nuclear energy in Germany

Seven nuclear power plants were shut down
immediately, loss of 8,5 GW firm capacity

Remaining nuclear power plants (capacity
11,5 GW) will be shut down in a step-by-step
approach until 2022

no problems with grid-stability; ongoing net
electricity export to neighbouring countries

Historical chance to achieve a fundamental
transformation of the energy system
4
The Energiewende:
Pillars and Targets
Climate
2020
2030
2040
2050
February 2013
Renewable
energies
Efficiency
Greenhouse gases
(vs. 1990)
Share of
elec.
Overall
share
Primary
energy cons.
- 40%
35%
18%
- 20%
- 55%
50%
30%
- 70%
65%
45%
- 80-95%
80%
60%
Energy productivity
Building
modernization
Increase
to
2.1%/a
Double
1%  2%
- 50%
5
RE current status –
Targets and Deployment
Renewable energy sources and their share of the energy
supply in Germany
40
minimum 35.0
1)
2002
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Targets:
2020
35
2012: 40%
Share in [%]
30
25
Gross final
energy
20.3
20
18.0
14.0
15
1)
11.0
10
Transport
sector
10.0
1)
12.5
10.9
1,2)
7.8
5.5
4.3
5
4.5
3.2
0.9
0
Share of RES in total gross
electricity consumption
Share of RES in total
energy consumption for
heat
Share of RES in fuel
Share of RES in total final
consumption for road traffic
energy consumption
in transport sector (2)
(electricity, heat, fuels)
Share of RES in total
primary energy
consumption (3)
1) Sources: Targets of the German Government, Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG); Renewable Energy Sources Heat Act (EEWärmeG), EU-Directive 2009/28/EC;
2) Total consumption of engine fuels, excluding fuel in air traffic; 3) Calculated using efficiency method; source: Working Group on Energy Balances e.V. (AGEB); RES: Renewable Energy Sources;
Source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); image: BMU / Brigitte Hiss; as at: July 2012; all figures provisional
February 2013
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Previous RE Development in
Electricity Sector
Development of renewables-based electricity generation in
Germany since 1990
140,000
120,000
Hydropower
Wind energy
Biomass *
Photovoltaics
[GWh]
100,000
EEG:
January 2009
EEG:
April 2000
EEG:
August 2004
80,000
Amendment to BauGB:
November 1997
60,000
40,000
StromEinspG:
January 1991 - March 2000
20,000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
* Solid and liquid biomass, biogas, sewage and landfill gas, biogenic fraction of waste; electricity from geothermal energy not presented due to negligible quantities produced; 1 GWh = 1 Mill. kWh;
StromEinspG: Act on the Sale of Electricity to the Grid; BauGB: Construction Code; EEG: Renewable Energy Sources Act;
Source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); image: BMU / Christoph Edelhoff; as at: July 2012; all figures provisional
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PV 2012: 5%
2012: 16 %
February 2013
2012: 22%
8
Future development of RE until 2050
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Offshore Wind Objectives
Policy Package
/
Ambitious Targets
•
•
•
10,000 MW offshore until 2020
25,000 MW offshore until 2030
40,000 MW offshore until 2050
1. Reviewed Feed-In-Tariffs for Offshore Wind
2. State-Bank (KfW) Programm “Offshore Wind
Energy” ( 5 billion € for the first 10 OWP)
3. Overcoming other Challenges such as
• grid connection
• administrative authorisation
• nature conservation
• building and installation challenges
February 2013
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10
Cross-Linking of Energy Sources
February 2013
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Cost components for one kilowatt-hour of electricity for
household consumers
30.0
25.0
Production, distribution, transport
KWKG
EEG
Concession levy
Electricity tax
Sales tax
25.2
23.2
23.7
21.7
19.4
[cent/kWh]
20.0
18.0
16.1
15.0
3,53 €Ct/kWh
13.9
10.0
5.0
0.0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: BMU - E I 1 according to Institut für neue Energien Teltow (IfnE) and Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft e.V. (BDEW);
Image: Deutsche Bundesbank; as at: December 2012; all figures provisional
February 2013
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Development of the EEG Surcharge
2012 and Expectation for 2013
compensation 2012
Exemption energy
intensive industry
Reduction of
EEX prices
Support
costs
February 2013
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Electricity markets
Baseload futures market (delivery in 2013)
February 2013
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RE cost estimations –
A sensitive and open debate
 Prognosis of costs for RE expansion
vary in a wide range (development
curve, climax - height and year)
 Differences due to different
assumptions: scenarios for RE
expansion, development of spot
market price for electricity, ..
 Additional influences on RE costs and electricity price:
„compensation approach” for energy-intensive industries, future Feedin-Tariffs and instruments, Merit-Order-Effect
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Future estimated cost development of RE
February 2013
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Energy Policy: Consensus
Challenges to be tackled
© Talsperre ISA
Storage
Smart grid
© Solarsiedlung
New business
models needed
PV: important
Wind: No 1
Grid expansion
Efficiency
February 2013
Governing the
transformation
© Siemens AG
E-mobility
Higher costs for
RES investments
© Kombikraftwerk
Mix of RES
Fluctuating
electricity
© Viktor Mildenberger / PIXELIO
Role of nuclear
and fossil power
Sustainable biomass
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Conclusions
1. continuation of RE development will be the major pillar
of German Energy Transition, in particular wind and PV;
2. future role of RE requires a wide variety of economic
and technical requirements, in particular capacity
markets, grid expansion, storage technologies, new
applications;
3. (exaggerated) cost challenges are a short-term issue to
be overcome;
4. challenges are well understood and in different stages
of action including responsibilities for policy, business,
scientific community and civil society;
5. Energy Transition is one of the most important major
German post-war „Challenges“.
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Thank you for your attention!
More Information:
www.bmu.de/english
www.erneuerbare-energien.de/english
February 2013
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