Amory B. Lovins - ICEF Innovation for Cool Earth Forum

Surprises in
Energy
Efficiency and
Renewables
Amory B. Lovins
Cofounder and Chief Scientist
Rocky Mountain Institute
Plenary Session 2
STITU
TE
ROC
東京、2015年10⽉月07⽇日
RBON
CA
IN
TA
IN
ロッキーマウンテン研究所
共同創設者・主任科学者
NEDO Innovation for Cool Earth Forum (ICEF 2015)
Tōkyō, 7 October 2015
MOUN
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エイモリー B. ロビンス
W
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ROO
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© 2015 Rocky Mountain Institute
Thank you for the honor of sketching some energy surprises. *
Heresy Happens
U.S. energy intensity
Index of U.S. Primary Energy
Per Dollar of Real GDP
1.25
Government and Industry Forecasts, 1975
1
0.75
Actual
0.5
Lovins, Foreign Affairs, Fall 1976
0.25
Reinventing Fire, 2011
0
1975
1990
2005
2020
2035
2050
First, energy efficiency keeps improving faster than we install it. In 1975, government and industry said the * energy
needed to make a dollar of U.S. GDP could never go down. * A year later I suggested it could drop 67% in 50 years. *
So far it’s dropped 54% in 39 years—with 31x the cumulative energy impact of all renewable expansions! Now we
can * save another threefold, or twice what I originally thought, at one-third the real cost—and those savings keep
expanding through new technology, policy, financial and business models, and especially design. *
U.S. buildings: 3–4× energy productivity worth 4× its cost
(site energy intensities in kWh/m2-y; U.S. office median ~293)
~277➝173 (–38%) 284➝85 (–70%)
2010 retrofit
2013 retrofit
...➝108 (–63%)
2010–11 new
...➝≤50 (–83% to –85%)
2015 new
But the technologies are >10 y old—the big change is design
For example, our * 2010 retrofit of the Empire State Building paid back in 3 years and saved 38%. That seemed good
until our * cost-effective retrofit three years later saved 70%, making this half-century-old government building more
efficient than the * best new U.S. office—which is * only half as efficient as our own new office with ~84% savings and
no mechanical heating or cooling equipment. The main progress was in * design, as I’ll describe in tomorrow’s
buildings session. *
Saving
Industrial
Electricity
motors, pumps, and pipes
Even our best industries need better design. Pumps and fans use ~30% of the world’s electricity. Yet a typical industrial
pumping loop was redesigned to use at least 86% less energy, not by improving pumps, motors, and controls, but just
by replacing long, thin, crooked pipes... *
Less Capital
Investment
smaller equipment
Saving
Electricity
motors, pumps, and pipes
...with fat, short, straight pipes. This shrinks pumping equipment and capital cost, typically repaying retrofits in months.
It could save a fifth of the world’s electricity or half the coal-fired electricity, but it’s not in any engineering textbook or
official forecast. *
Volume Production of Electrified Carbon-Fiber Cars
!
Hypercar Revolution 5-seat hybrid SUV
2000 virtual design (RMI with two Tier Ones)
3.6 L/100 km (gasoline) or 2.1 (H2), 857 kg (–53%)
VW XL1 2-seat plug-in hybrid
2014 low-volume production
0.9 L/100 km, 798 kg
Friday 18 September 2015
Toyota 1/X 4-seat plug-in hybrid
2007 concept car
1.8 L/100 km, 420 kg (–70%)
BMW i3 4-seat battery-electric hatchback
2013– midvolume production, $41–45k
1.9 L/100 km, 300+-km range-extender option
7
How about cars? * Fifteen years ago, my team designed an uncompromised, carbon-fiber hybrid SUV with halved
weight, 4–6x higher efficiency, and a 2-year payback. * Eight years ago, Toyota’s carbon-fiber concept car combined
the interior volume of a Prius with half its fuel use and one-third its weight. * Now 50–110 km/L carbon-fiber electrified
cars are on the market from Volkswagen and * from BMW, which confirmed that the carbon fiber is paid for by needing
fewer batteries.
Such U.S. cars could now save half an OPEC’s worth of oil. The cost, $18 per saved barrel, buys the electrification; the
ultralighting is * paid for by a 2/3-smaller propulsion system and radically simpler automaking with 80% less capital. *
LED and PV (vs. actual U.S. market prices)
800
1938
50
Halogen lamp
Incandescent lamp
1959
1879
1900
1950
Years
1996
2000
200
100
0
2014
Fluorescent lamp
2010
100
300
2006
1965
400
2002
Sodium-vapor lamp
500
1998
150
600
1994
Luminous efficacy (lm/W)
200
700
1990
250
Real busbar price or fuel cost, 2011 US$/MWh
White LED
300
0
Coal-fired steam turbine, fuel cost only
Oil-fired condensing, fuel cost only
Natural gas CCGT, fuel cost only
Utility-scale solar PV, total cost
Onshore windpower, total cost
German PV residential feed-in tariff
(Seattle-like climate)
Sources: L: courtesy of Dr. Yukio Narukawa (Nichia Corp., Tokushima, Japan) from J. Physics. D: Appl. Phys. 43(2010) 354002, doi:10.1088/0022-3727/43/35/354002, updated by RMI with CREE lm/W data, 2015, www.cree.com/News-and-Events/Cree-News/Press-Releases/2014/March/300LPW-LED-barrier;.
R: RMI analysis, at average 2013 USEIA fossil-fueled generation efficiencies and each year’s real fuel costs (no O&M); utility-scale PV: LBNL, Utility-Scale Solar 2013 (Sep 2014), Fig. 18; onshore wind: USDOE, 2013 Wind Technologies Market Report (Aug 2014), “Windbelt” (Interior zone) windfarms’ average
PPA; German feed-in tariff (falls with cost to yield ~6%/y real return): Fraunhofer ISE, Cost Perspective, Grid and Market Integration of Renewable Energies, p 6 (Jan 2014); all sources net of subsidies; graph inspired by 2014 “Terrordome” slide, Michael Parker, Bernstein Alliance
Lighting uses one-seventh of the world’s electricity. Incandescent lamps * got 11x more efficient over 130 years. *
New types slowly evolved. But then * white LEDs, in each decade, got 30x more efficient, 20x brighter, and 10x
cheaper. They’ll take 2/3 of the world’s general lighting market in five years.
What else changes this fast? LEDs turn electricity into light. * Photovoltaics—PVs—turn light into electricity. In five
years, solar power has become cheaper than U.S. power plants’ fossil fuels. Windpower, the lower aqua curve, now
often closes American coal, gas, and nuclear stations. Such competition just halved Germany’s wholesale electricity
price in five years, but isn’t yet allowed in Japan. *
Renewable Energy’s Costs Continue to Plummet
Wind and photovoltaics: U.S. generation-weighted-average Power Purchase Agreement prices, by year of signing
250
levelized 2014 $/MWh
utility-scale solar PPAs
200
U.S. wholesale
power price
150
100
50
wind PPAs
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
If it were, Japan’s renewable prices could * fall to US levels, with wholesale electricity prices * widely undercut both by
windpower and by * utility-scale photovoltaics. *
Choreographing Variable
Renewable Generation
Europe, 2014 renewable %
of total electricity consumed
Friday 18 September 2015
9
PVs and wind make only a few percent of Japan’s electricity; utilities claim more would endanger stability. Yet *
Germany was 27% renewably powered last year, Italy 33%, * and four other * European countries with * modest or no
hydropower got about * half their electricity consumption from renewables, adding no bulk storage and with superior
reliability—for Denmark and Germany, about 10x America’s. These operators run their grids the way a conductor
leads a symphony orchestra: no instrument plays all the time, but the ensemble * continuously makes beautiful music.
*
%
50
Scotland
%
≥55
Denmark (33% wind; 2013 windpower
peak 136%—55% for all December)
%
27
Germany (2013 peak 70%)
%
64
Portugal (peak 100% in 2011; 70% for the whole first
half of 2013, incl, 26% wind & 34% hydro; 17% in 2005)
%
46
Spain (including 21% wind, 14% hydro, 5% solar)
Friday 18 September 2015
9
PVs and wind make only a few percent of Japan’s electricity; utilities claim more would endanger stability. Yet *
Germany was 27% renewably powered last year, Italy 33%, * and four other * European countries with * modest or no
hydropower got about * half their electricity consumption from renewables, adding no bulk storage and with superior
reliability—for Denmark and Germany, about 10x America’s. These operators run their grids the way a conductor
leads a symphony orchestra: no instrument plays all the time, but the ensemble * continuously makes beautiful music.
*
重 塑 能 源 ：中国
⾯面向2050年能源消费和⽣生产⾰革命路线图研究
Assembling these parts four years ago, we showed how the United States in 2050 could run a 2.6x bigger
economy, $5 trillion cheaper, emitting 84% less carbon, tripling efficiency, quintupling renewables, and needing no
oil, coal, nuclear energy, new inventions, or Acts of Congress—with the transition led by business for profit under
smart subnational policies. The U.S. is approximately on this trajectory.
This year, if I may report preliminarily, * top Chinese analysts showed the authors of the 13th Five Year Plan how
China could raise energy productivity 7x and carbon productivity 12x, several trillion dollars cheaper.
I hope Japan will allow its world-class innovators to restore Japanese leadership in profitably resolving your
nation’s energy challenge and the world’s. Thank you.