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How solar cells are changing the world
How solar cells are changing the world Solar cells today and tomorrow Erik Stensrud Marstein Norwegian Research Centre for Solar Cell Technology & IFE Department for Solar Energy Solar Energy Conference, Kristiansand, May 9h 2012 Overview • Solar cells yesterday • Solar cells today • Solar cells tomorrow Narvik Glomfjord Trondheim Årdal Oslo Trondheim Oslo/Kjeller/Fredrikstad Herøya Kristiansand Research partners: Industry partners: Kjeller IFE, NTNU, SINTEF and UiO CleanSi, Elkem Solar, Fesil Sunergy, Innotech Solar, Norsun and REC A future-oriented value chain project From silicon to solar cells and modules From today’s towards tomorrow’s materials and technology for solar cells IFE, NTNU, SINTEF, UiO Crystalline silicon solar cells Vøringsfossen Elkem Solar Årdal Elkem Solar/Google Earth/SINTEF/NTNU The silicon solar cell value chain Silicon feedstock Crystallization and wafering Solar cells and modules Solar energy systems The silicon solar cell value chain Silicon feedstock REC Elkem Solar Evonik Norge Crystallization and wafering REC Norsun Solar cells and modules Solar energy systems REC Innotech Solar Scatec Solar REC The silicon solar cell value chain Silicon feedstock REC Elkem Solar Evonik Norge Crystallization and wafering REC Norsun Solar cells and modules Solar energy systems REC Innotech Solar Scatec Solar Supply industry: Artech, Crusin, Metallkraft, Prediktor, Saint Gobain, Tordivel Solar Tronrud Engineering, Vetro Solar, Washington Mills … Research in the Centre Silicon feedstock Crystallization and wafering Process REC Elkem Solar modelling ”SiSim” Solar cells and modules REC Norsun Mono- and multicrystalline silicon Solar energy systems REC Solar cells and modules New characterization methods and tools Solar cells yesterday Bell Labs Solar cells yesterday • • 1839: PV effect demonstrated (A.E. Becquerel) 1883: solar cell developed (Fritts) The current, if not wanted immediately, can be either stored where produced, in storage batteries, … or transmitted a distance and there used” • 1954: First modern, crystalline silicon solar cell • Cost: 100 $/Wp or more Bell Labs Common realization: energy needed! • There will be 9 billion of us before 2050 • We will consume huge quantities of energy E. Munch Solar cells today Lieberose International Energy Agency Realization • Solar energy is the most abundant energy resource on Earth • We recieve enough solar energy in 1 hour to support all human activities for a year • The use of solar cells is expanding very rapidly due to dramatic cost reductions • Solar cells are commercially available and reliable with a significant potential for long-term growth in nearly all world regions • IEA solar photovoltaic roadmap vision: – 5% of global electricity consumption in 2030 – 11% of global electricity consumption in 2050 www.iea-pvps.org / E. Munch Challenge 20+ % ? 0.3 % ’10 ’20 ’30 ’40 ’50 Status • Solar cells provide ~ 0.3% of total electricity – Must increase by ~ 100 X • The solar cell industry is already important – Globally: – Norway: • ~ 500 000 jobs (‘11 estimate) ~ 2 500 jobs (Early ‘11 estimate) << 1 500 jobs (Today) The solar cell industry is rapidly maturing – Rapid reduction in solar electricity costs – Rapid reduction in margins – Rapid emergence of strong solar cell companies worldwide, in particular in South-East Asia – Rapid development of competing solar cell technologies • These are very interesting times! www.iea-pvps.org Status Annual cell production [MWp] 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Photon Int’l 3 (2011) Technology shares So lar cell techno lo gy shares 100 % 80 % Thin film 60 % R&S Si mc-Si 40 % sc-Si 20 % 0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Photon Int’l 3 (2011) Technology shares So lar cell techno lo gy shares 100 % Other 95 % CIGS CdTe 90 % a-Si R&S Si mc-Si 85 % sc-Si 80 % 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Photon Int’l 3 (2011) Latest update • Solar IS making a difference • • • • In some markets, a BIG difference Current total, global capacity: ~ 65 GWp > 27 GWp of solar modules installed only in 2011 Solar IS becoming cost competitive • Current market price of solar modules: ~ 0.9 $/Wp Norsun What does this mean? • Solar cells today produce on the order of 100 TWh of renewable electricity every year • In 2011 alone, more than 200 km2 of solar modules were installed • These were mainly based on crystalline silicon solar cells and contained almost 10 billion silicon wafers Solar cells tomorrow …a whole lot of solar energy! E. Munch Pros et contra – silicon solar cells PRO • • • Fairly cost effective Fairly (and increasingly) efficient Infrastructure • • • • • • • Competent personnel Equipment and tools Raw materials Services … Environmentally benign Abundance of silicon CONTRA • Large silicon consumption • • • • • Enormous waste of silicon Only «fairly efficient» Costly module assembly Low degree of cell-module process integration Silver contacts The importance of efficiency Future solar cell technologies One big (happy?) family Crystalline silicon solar cells Multicrystalline silicon CIS/CIGS CdTe Monocrystalline silicon Thin film solar cells Crystalline silicon ribbons & sheets Silicon thin film PETE Hot carrier solar cells Intermediate band solar cells Alternative concepts (3G) Photon energy conversion Tandem solar cells Status 13 – 20% ~ 1$/Wp + Multicrystalline silicon CIS/CIGS CdTe Monocrystalline silicon 6 – 14% ~1$/Wp + Crystalline silicon ribbons & sheets Silicon thin film PETE Hot carrier solar cells Intermediate band solar cells 42% (cell) >> 1$/Wp Photon energy conversion Tandem solar cells Potential 30% ? Multicrystalline silicon CIS/CIGS CdTe Monocrystalline silicon 30% ? Crystalline silicon ribbons & sheets Silicon thin film PETE Hot carrier solar cells Intermediate band solar cells ~80% (theory) ~50% (practice?) ??? Photon energy conversion Tandem solar cells Critical questions Critical questions • 1 $/Wp on full solar module! Critical questions • 27 GWp means • • • ~ 200 km2 of solar modules produced every year 5 – 10 Billion wafers and solar cells produced every year 1 unit per second per production line Solar cells in 10 – 15 years • Short term developments • Few investments in new capacity • Little appetite for replacing entire production lines - Use of existing equipment preferred • Evolutionary developments - Selective emitter, rear side passivation, contact shading, textures • Instrument makers have easier access to factory floors… IFE The silicon solar cell (’11) Potential for improvement? Optical losses Surface recombination losses Material quality Electrical losses Potential for improvement? IFE Solar cells in 10 – 15 years • Mid term developments • New solar cell designs - Heterojunction, back contact • Higher efficiencies - 20% standard on silicon solar cells and (possibly) modules - Can thin film compete • Material abundance becomes an issue • Losers will be identified Solar cells in 10 – 15 years • Long term developments • Dream scenario - Ultra thin, high quality substrates Ultrahigh efficiency solar cell concepts realized at relevant cost Smarter modules Smarter system integration What will the future bring? • Costs for solar electricity will be further reduced – Innovation is key! • The solar cell industry must innovate to reduce cost and increase relevance • Efficiencies must continue to increase, but not at all cost • Solar cell companies must innovate to be/remain competitive Thank you for your attention! For more information, please visit www.solarunited.no
