View on the future of the EV industry

View on the future of the EV industry
Bert Witkamp
Clean Energy Ministerial, Electric Vehicle Initiative , May 4th, 2015
Why switch to electric drive?
Societal drive and pressure (MEGATRENDS!): political
leaders come up with long term policies and decisions taken:
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To combat climate change
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To clean up our air and to reduce noise levels in order to improve our health
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To become (economically and politically) independant from fossil fuel imports
For economic reasons when electric drive becomes simply
more economically for consumers than other alternatives
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Lower total cost of ownership
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Lower upfront cost, higher second hand value
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Switch from vehicle ownership to transportation use model
Consumers enjoy electric drive
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Better driving experience
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Small city vehicles only available in electric drive versions
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Access to zero emission / low noise zones in cities
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House – car integrated energy system and lower energy cost
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Non-financial motivators and social responsability
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EV development 2008 – 2014: market
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(Very) high growth rate (In 2014: 43% all EV’s sold, globally)
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2014 vs 2013: Europe: +50%, China: + 220%, US: +22%
Countries can have “as many EV’s on the road as they want”
Range of EV models on market is widening but still limited
 Tesla game changer ?!
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EV market remains few model – few country market, covering small % of
market in customer needs and geographically
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EV other than passenger cars are almost not available
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EV’s get the high(est) customer satisfaction scores @ most OEM’s
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EV’s remain expensive and need (mostly) incentives and subsidies
 But (battery) cost is coming down rapidly
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EV charging infrasturucture slowly comes in places but no clear
business models yet
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Range anxiety anxiety still an issue
EV’s 300 – 500+ km ranges announced for 2016 – 2018
(mid-class – luxury)
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New FEV’s being announced (or rumoured)
PHEV becoming basic offering?
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300+ km range (EPA): 2016 – 2018, $ 30 – 40k
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Tesla Model III
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GM Chevrolet Bolt
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Ford
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Audi
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Nissan (Leaf)
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BMW (i3)
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VW e-Golf
FEV luxury cars (“Tesla fighters”)
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Audi (R8 e-tron, 2016, 450 km, 92 kWh; Q6 e-SUV)
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BMW i5
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Jaguar (SUV)
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Landrover
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Porsche 717
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Volkswagen (500 km range by 2020)
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Policymakers and politicians
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Awareness of the CÙRRENT state of EV technology is in general low
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Awareness of and belief in the cost reduction potential of EV
technology in the next decade is probably even lower
Politians and policymaker (like most human beings) will
act and champion EV development and deployment if
and when they are convinced of value of doing so AND a
good chance of success!
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EV Technology:
1.
2.
3.
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The postive contribution in terms of Climate Change, Air Quality,
Reduction of fossil fuel import and energy efficiency is evident
Consumers familiar withthe technology prefer it largely over
conventional technology
EV Technology is probably on its way to become the lowest
cost vehicle technology within the next decade BUT this needs
to be substantiated and communicated!!
Electric vehicles are intrinsically the lowest cost
technology option
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Already today, EV’s are less expensive than ICE with the
exception of the battery / fuel cell
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Around 2025: EV’s likely to be the lowest cost and best
appreciated cars
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Batteries get rapidly lower in cost AND less battery is needed / km
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Also: renewable energy & EV’s = synergy
The mass scale switch to electric drive may start within a
decade
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Total cost of ownership in some cases already lower today
It’s (almost) all about the battery cost!
All passenger cars, buses, vans & light trucks
In transition phase hybrid versions as well
In 2030 all cars sold are electric?
 At a certain moment, people will not buy old technology
anymore
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Battery cost decrease faster than predicted
Ref: Bjorn Nykvist and Mans Nilsson, 2015
85 cost estimates from peer reviewed literature, most cited grey literature and OEM’s
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1) EV battery learning curve: -6 to 9% per doubling
Ref: Bjorn Nykvist and Mans Nilsson, 2015
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2) EV battery learning curve: -22 % per doubling
Battery cost decreases faster than predicted
…..and this continues after 2020…
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A possible scenario starting after 2020
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Very-low cost Light Electric Vehicles: perfect for city driving,
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Electric cars become the lowest cost car
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Small EV model 100 – 200 km range
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Mid class EV models 300 – 500 km range
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High end and luxury EV models, > 500 km range
Charging (low power?) goes wireless and automatic
Fast charging: mainly for commercial vehicles & users;
5-10% of charging for consumers
Very large non-OEM’s enter EV market?
Cars become autonomous: best fit for electric cars!
Beyond cars: electric buses, light trucks, vans, autonomous
& self-charging long range trucks,..
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Switch to electric is less far fetched than we think?
Ian Robertson, Board member & Chief Marketing BMW:
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Who is going to manufacture the EV’s of the future?
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OEM’s
Tesla (like start ups)
Chinese companies like BYD, Geely, Foxconn,…
Google?
Apple?
Siemens,….?
Combinations of any of these?
Manufacturing of EV’s in the future will probably be much more
“democratic”: very easy, low cost, small scale and open for
many companies, industries and countries wanting to build up
an automotive industry!
Who
is going to supply the electricity?
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Crossing the EV Valley of Death
We can and need to provide credible and clear
information on the EV use and cost potential to
our politians, policymakers, industries and
citizens!
The next 5 years will be determining in whether
the still fragile and vulnerable EV can reach its
full potential quickly!
Your opinions and ideas?
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ANNEXES: BACKGROUND INFORMATION
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ICE technology: master piece of
engineering
Requires highly skilled labour, expensive machinery and factories
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ICE emission control system:
very complex and sensitive, lasting vehicle lifetime??
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EV motors: order of magnitude less complex!?
Ideal for low cost mass production
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Which horse (power) are we betting on?
3x more kW/kg
40x more kW/liter
4x more efficient
ZERO emission
LOW noise
VERY low maintenance
1 moving part
Source: TU Eindhoven, The Netherlands
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EV’s on the road (M1 cars, models > 2007)
sustained 2014 growth = 100 % EV in 2025
2010 – 2014:
in 4 years: 200 x more
EV’s on the road !
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Full electric vehicles Europe 2010 – 2014
2010 Top 5 total: 546 = 80%
Think
Mitsubishi I-Miev
Citroën C-Zero
Peugeot iOn
Smart For Two
Tesla Roadster
Mini Electric
243
100
97
74
50
2012 Top 5 total: 15.573 = 96%
Mitsubishi I-Miev
Citroën C-Zero
Peugeot iOn
Nissan Leaf
Bolloré Bluecar
Renault Fluence
Smart For Two
2008 – 2012: Think & Mitsibushi i-Miev
2011- 2012: Nissan LEAF, Boloré Bleucar,
Renault Fluence, Smart for Two
6583
Phase 2: GAME CHANGERS:
4883
1950
1211
946
2014 Top 5 total: 45.142 = 83%
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Phase 1:
Nissan Leaf
14380
Renault Zoë
10905
Tesla Model S
9261
VW e-Up!
5406
BMW i3 (BEV est.) 5190
2013-2014: Tesla Model S, Nissan LEAF (2),
BMW i3, Renault Zoe,….
EV: market of few models & segments
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FEV
PHEV / REEV
4 models > 10,000
2 models > 10,000
10 models > 1,000
6 models > 1,000
EV sales concentrated in few countries
top 5: 83%, top 12: 97%
A country can have as many
EV’s on the road as it wants:
-people want them!
Does not need to cost
Taxpayers
If “polluter-pays” principle
Is applied
Norway has imported 3,500 – 4,500 second hand EV’s (mainly Nissan LEAF)
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Do EV drivers like their cars?
EV are becoming cars of choice!
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Rapid accelaration and smooth drive.
Highest customer satisfaction reported for Tesla, Nissan Leaf,
Opel Ampera, Chevy Volt,….neighbours help OEM’s to sell the
cars…
Saves money in fuel and maintenance
Every morning full “tank”, charge at work, no need anymore
to go to smelly, unhealthy gasstations ( and spending several
weeks of your life there….)
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Help to get the air (of your city) clean!
Low noise and no emissions in city traffic and traffic jams
Help to fight climate change
Often use / produce renewable energy to fill up!
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Autonomous + Electric = breakthough
10 x less vehicles + 1/5 of the cost but same mobility
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