Tesla Motors, Inc. - Devonshire Research Group, LLC

Transcription

Devonshire Research Group, LLC
Tesla Motors, Inc.
March 2016
-Attorney Confidential-
Disclaimer
As of the publication date of this report, the Principals and Clients of Devonshire Research Group LLC ("Devonshire") have a short position in the stock of the company covered
herein (“Company”) and stand to realize gains in the event that the price of the stock declines. Following publication of the report, Devonshire’s Principals and Clients may
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2
Notice of investment interests
As of the publication date of this report, the Principals and Clients of Devonshire
Research Group LLC have a net short position in the stock, put options, bonds, and
credit swaps of Tesla Motors, Inc. and stand to realize gains in the event that the price of
the stock “TSLA” declines over the long run, or if investment sentiment improves the
appeal of an expected decline in any of its securities.
However, Devonshire recognizes that while the technology strategy of the Company
reflects a long term bearish outlook for Tesla Motors, Inc.’s security instruments, the
short term implication of powerful marketing, including the power of social media
tweeting by the CEO and his PR firm, well orchestrated and heavily blogged product
launches, and a deep and powerful short term media control and attention span, suggests
unpredictable short term volatility.
Principals and Clients of Devonshire Research Group LLC are short term volatility
oriented with a long term net short position across multiple security instruments.
3
On humility:
It is unwise to be too sure of one’s own wisdom. It
is healthy to be reminded that the strongest might
weaken and the wisest might err.
-Gandhi
4
Executive Summary
What kind of company is TSLA really? Few companies have ever managed such a broad scope of business models. Its
valuation multiples (when they can be calculated) lie well above its direct business model comparables
−
TSLA is attempting more vertical integration than any auto company has recently tried
−
TSLA trades at a higher revenue multiple than any related technology business
−
TSLA’s only comparables in terms of multiple are business models that TSLA is not:
−
Software companies: TSLA has low / negative margins and heavy fixed asset commitment
−
Social media companies: TSLA has no network effects, no platform economics and high scaling costs
−
Biotech or oil explorations companies: TSLA has high marginal costs for every unit it produces
TSLA has relied heavily on existing technology in designing a successful EV model, and while it may have generated some
valuable IP it now controls little of it and has questionable sustainable competitive advantage in technology
− TSLA’s patents cover battery-related technology and selected components but not battery cells
− TSLA’s patent holdings are dwarfed by its technology competitors, limiting its freedom to operate in the EV market
where its technology position is modest
− TSLA’s engineering talent is thin relative to competitors and many productive inventors have left
− TSLA’s valuable inventions can be readily copied by its EV competitors
− TSLA’s cost position is heavily dependent on its bargaining positions with strategic suppliers who have an incentive to
price aggressively for their advanced technologies
TSLA is not the green company it claims to be, with environmental risks at all stages of the vehicle lifecycle
− TSLA battery production requires the mining and use of numerous toxic chemicals
− TSLA EV production has a heavier carbon footprint than traditional vehicles
− TSLA vehicles consume lots of energy; battery charging shifts CO2 emissions from car engines to power plants
− Disposal of TSLA batteries at large scale will create a heavy toxic burden
5
Executive Summary
−
−
−
−
−
−
6
Tesla wears many hats—does this large scope of functions justify its
“disruptive” reputation and corresponding market cap?
Automotive
Design /
Manufacture
Software
Business Function
SIC / NAIC Code
1
Automotive
Manufacturer / Designer
3711 / 336111
Models S and X in production
GM, Ford, Honda, VW
2
Systems Integrator
7373 / 541512
Assembly plant in Fremont, CA; network
of suppliers, retail stores, charging stations
Apple, IBM, Fujitsu
3
Software Company
7372 / 511210
Autopilot, over-the-air updates, GUI
Symantec, Microsoft, Oracle
4
Consumer Electronic
Device Maker
3571 / 334111
Control & sensor electronics
LG, Toshiba, Sony, HP
5
Electric Motor /
Powertrain Provider
3714 / 336390
EV powertrain design & manufacture
Magna, Denso, Delphi
6
Automotive Dealer
5511 / 441110
Direct-to-consumer vehicle sales
Sonic, Penske, CarMax
7
Battery / Energy
Storage Provider
3691 / 335911
Powerwall home battery, Gigafactory
A123, Panasonic, LG Chem
8
Electric Utility
4931 / 2211
Charging stations, battery swapping
Entergy, Edison, Ameren
Automotive
Components
Sales &
Service
Nature of TSLA Involvement
Example Comps
7
Tesla is currently trading at a 7.0x revenue multiple—far above any
comparable except, at the extreme, a high-flying software company
Key financials across TSLA comps (EV in billion USD)
1
Automotive
Manufacturer / Designer
Name
EV/Rev
GM
0.6
Honda
0.7
VW
0.7
Nissan
1.0
Daimler
1.0
Continental
1.1
Ford
1.1
Average
0.9
Tesla
7.0
5
EV
91
99
159
106
173
47
162
119
29
P/E
6
9
7
8
8
13
7
8
NM
EV/Rev
0.5
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.1
1.5
1.7
1.0
7.0
EV
16
12
33
18
17
23
35
22
29
3
Systems Integrator
Name
Fujitsu
Hitachi
Cisco
IBM
Rockwell
Apple
Citrix
Average
Tesla
EV/Rev
0.4
0.7
2.0
2.0
2.2
2.5
3.6
1.9
7.0
EV
15
63
100
165
13
585
12
136
29
P/E
8
10
12
10
18
11
16
12
NM
Name
Symantec
Microsoft
Oracle
SAP
Intuit
Salesforce
Adobe
Average
Tesla
EV/Rev
1.7
4.0
4.0
4.3
5.9
7.1
8.4
5.1
7.0
EV
11
351
150
98
26
48
40
103
29
P/E
16
18
14
17
27
69
31
27
NM
7
Automotive Dealer
P/E
8
13
13
13
39
11
14
16
NM
4
Software Company
6
Electric Motor /
Powertrain Provider
Name
Magna
Valeo
Denso
Cummins
MAN
Delphi
Eaton
Average
Tesla
2
Name
EV/Rev
Sonic
0.3
Penske
0.4
Group 1
0.4
AutoNation
0.5
Asbury
0.5
Lithia
0.6
CarMax
1.4
Average
0.6
Tesla
7.0
EV
3
8
4
11
3
5
20
8
29
Name
HP
Sharp
LG
Toshiba
Sony
Samsung
Canon
Average
Tesla
EV/Rev
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.7
0.8
0.5
7.0
EV
22
7
15
22
37
118
28
36
29
P/E
7
NM
16
NM
18
9
16
13
NM
8
Battery / Energy Storage
P/E
9
10
8
12
10
12
16
11
NM
Consumer
Electronic Device Maker
Name
EV/Rev
Panasonic
0.3
Elentec
0.5
Saft
1.0
LG Chem
1.0
EnerSys
1.1
Electrovaya
2.3
A123
Average
1.0
Tesla
7.0
EV
20
0
1
17
3
0
7
29
P/E
14
NM
13
14
14
9
NM
13
NM
Electric Utility
Name
EV/Rev
Entergy
2.3
FirstEnergy
2.5
Xcel Energy
3.1
Edison
3.2
Ameren
3.2
Natl. Grid
3.9
NextEra
4.7
Average
3.3
Tesla
7.0
EV
26
37
35
36
19
88
83
46
29
P/E
14
12
18
18
19
16
19
17
NM
Tesla is not, and will not grow like, a software company—it is an automotive
company, and the automotive industry is mature and famously difficult to disrupt
8
By valuation multiples, Tesla is comparable to a social media
giant—except that it lacks network effects or serious user traction
Comps derived from business model fail to support valuation
Valuation-appropriate comp set?
Social Media
Name
Yelp
SINA
LinkedIn
Twitter
Alphabet
Renren
Facebook
Average
Tesla
Social media companies have…
VS
EV/Rev EV
2.2
1
2.7
4
4.4
13
4.9
11
5.6
420
16.2
1
16.3
293
7.5
106
7.0
29
P/E
40
36
35
34
21
NM
34
33
NM
Tesla has…
Network effects / tipping point economics
Word-of-mouth marketing
A dominant platform used by an active user base
A subreddit with 30k subscribers
A clear path to user base monetization
No ability to sell product at a profit
9
Broadly speaking, Tesla’s multiple places it among industries that
rely on speculative future windfalls; true comparables lie far below
EV / LTM
Revenue
14
Distribution of median revenue multiples across non-financial industries
Biotech
13
Real Estate
12
11
10
9
8
TSLA
7
6
5
4
Twitter
3
2
Transportation
Square
Retail
Automotive
Electronics
Electrical
Equipment
Pharma
Upstream Oil
Software
Electric Utilities
Chemicals
1
0
Where Tesla
Should Be
*Source: Cognient Industry Valuation Multiples, Q3 2015
Percentile Rank
Where Tesla
Currently Is
10
Executive Summary
−
−
−
−
−
−
11
Tesla’s patents focus on battery peripherals but do not address
battery cells, the key performance driver of their products
TSLA patent portfolio*: semantic map of 357 patent documents
* Worldwide search of grants and applications,
collapsed to one document per distinct invention
12
Tesla’s limited IP footprint is clearly evident in the broader scope
of automotive technologies—they are exposed in many key areas
Broad automotive space*: semantic map of 24,302 patent families (past 10 years only)
Key
TSLA patents
Non-TSLA patents
* US grants in past 10 years on the topic of
motor vehicle or electric vehicle technology
13
Key players in the broad landscape have a long history of
patenting, meaning larger stockpiles of enforceable IP
Broad automotive space*: top assignee filing trends
0
0
06 2
…
…
0
…
…
0
…
…
0
…
…
0
…
…
0
…
…
0
…
…
0
…
…
0
…
…
0
…
…
85 TESLA MOTORS INC
…
…
Company
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 TOTAL
GEN MOTORS CORP
43 39 52 47 1 36 28 34 22 37 32 39 48 94 254 281 273 398 504 280 300 2841
TOYOTA MOTOR CO LTD
19 35 51 59 42 31 42 38 51 42 31 36 76 161 324 201 322 399 349 407 2716
BOSCH GMBH ROBERT
23 30 52 67 92 92 91 88 101 95 88 85 104 99 137 147 192 248 321 276 2428
FORD MOTOR CO
54 58 77 53 45 41 48 66 59 58 57 76 73 103 187 129 175 281 258 443 2341
HONDA MOTOR CO LTD
41 66 59 62 75 71 63 58 80 102 53 59 59 107 187 139 170 268 182 216 2117
DAIMLER AG
25 27 49 47 106 116 87 60 51 55 65 60 73 2 65 36 48 59 63 61 61 1214
DENSO CORP
0
1 14 32 40 47 29 31 49 57 38 40 56 91 81 69 99 101 88 127 1090
YAZAKI CORP
28 56 75 56 51 36 44 40 34 39 16 22 35 39 43 33 61 96 86 153 1043
3 0
CONTINENTAL
0
0
0
3 12 11 8
8
7 10 19 31 58 145 107 136 170 118 173 1016
NISSAN MOTOR
15 21 39 41 51 31 28 40 38 64 30 35 39 39 31 23 47 94 109 159 974
VALEO
13 23 50 37 25 41 29 29 33 16 21 46 51 61 70 66 65 143 81 85 985
ZF GROUP
5
1
3
4
4 10 7
5 11 10 32 34 57 72 136 82 96 94 80 79 822
4
HYUNDAI MOTOR CO LTD
6 18 12 10 10 14 16 8
9
7
7 11 13 71 69 48 90 96 91 158 764
PORSCHE AG
4
6
4
9
7 11 8 15 12 21 19 25 43 84 86 72 79 70 72 92 739
PANASONIC CORP
2
5 12 15 15 15 14 19 29 18 16 14 29 55 60 32 81 92 69 122 714
BMW AG
2
4 12 2 10 11 14 9 15 17 9 29 44 89 71 52 70 83 77 85 705
MITSUBISHI ELECTRIC CORP 15 37 21 23 10 26 22 17 14 23 10 14 26 23 47 22 41 79 45 103 618
DELPHI TECH INC
0
0
0
1 16 34 64 96 63 47 43 31 31 39 30 18 20 20 21 20 594
SUMITOMO WIRING
24 19 22 17 9 13 16 15 23 12 3
4
9 27 59 41 54 60 48 78 553
SIEMENS AG
3
6
5 5 19 36 48 23 38 35 54 47 45 45 20 15 14 3
8
9 14 487
…
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
2
13
8
14
29
20
22
110
1
Sustained leadership with recent ramp-up
2
Secondary cohort contributing significant R&D spend
3
Recent ramp-up / expansion in scope
4
Re-investment following R&D down-cycle
5
Transient R&D productivity
6
Niche player with short history of innovative activity
* US grants and applications in the past 20 years on the topic of
motor vehicle or electric vehicle technology, collapsed by family
14
As a technology owner, Tesla’s patent holdings in key topic areas
are dwarfed by its direct competitors in the automotive space
Patent counts* in core automotive topic areas
* INPADOC families filed in past
20 years, worldwide patent search
15
Within even the more narrowly specified electric vehicles space,
Tesla’s portfolio accounts for a small share of total R&D activity
Electric vehicle* patent citation network
Key
More EV patents
than TSLA
TSLA
Fewer EV patents
than TSLA
*Source: Search on electric vehicle keywords returning ~13k INPADOC families
filed in past 20 years. Chart shows assignees with 50+ patent families in set
16
Tesla’s Model S battery technology builds on pioneering
innovation by EV competitors — these patents are still enforceable
Patent No.
Title
Assignee
Inventors
Publication
Year
Ford
Allan Gale
Michael Degner
2010
50
Citations
US7679336B2
Interactive battery charger for
electric vehicle
US7610978B2
Battery unit mounting structure
for electric vehicle
Mitsubishi
Takasaki Seiichi
Shimura Nobuyuki
2009
55
US7013205B1
System and method for
minimizing energy
consumption in hybrid vehicles
IBM
James Hafner
Anthony Tomlin
2006
226
US6841972B2
Method for resetting a state of
charge of a battery of a hybrid
electric vehicle
Hyundai
Jae Seung Koo
2005
26
US6868318B1
Method for adjusting battery
power limits in a hybrid EV to
provide consistent launch
GM
William Cawthorne
Gregory Hubbard
2005
257
US6541151B2
Battery assembly system used
for electric vehicle
Toyota
Minamiura Keiichi
Nakanishi Toshiaki
2003
52
Tesla has proudly Open Sourced and abandoned it’s Intellectual Property, but other
companies have not, and are under no obligation to abandon their rights
17
Tesla has orders of magnitude less patent protection than
competitors in any of the related industries in which it participates
Patent Count*
100,000
Automotive Manufacturer / Designer
Battery / Energy Storage
Consumer Electronic Device Maker
Electric Motor / Powertrain Provider
10,000
Software Company
Systems Integrator
Tesla Motors
Samsung
Panasonic HP Canon Hitachi
Honda
IBM
Fujitsu
Sony GM
Toshiba
Oracle
LG
Sharp
Cisco
Denso
Daimler
VW Ford
Delphi
Continental
Valeo
LG Chem
SAP Nissan
Eaton
Symantec
Magna
Adobe
Rockwell Automation
Cummins
1,000
MAN
Citrix
Microsoft
Apple
Intuit
Salesforce
Tesla
Saft Groupe
100
EnerSys
TEV
(MM USD)
10
100
1,000
* INPADOC families filed in past
20 years, worldwide patent search
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
18
Tesla’s small inventor group highlights their lack of R&D depth in
an industry with vast inventive resources
Inventor Co-Occurrence Networks
Tesla: 114 inventors
with >2 patents
i
Ford: 3245 inventors with >2 patents
Beyond the overwhelming difference in scale, Tesla’s small core inventor team is a
source of fragility—R&D quality relies on the consistent output of a small talent base
19
The core inventor team is fragile: of the 16 inventors with 5+ coauthored patents, 10 have since left Tesla for other opportunities
IP Counsel
Key
Currently employed by TSLA
No longer employed by TSLA
20
Why patents matter: battery and automotive technology is
complicated, and keeping up requires every advantage possible
TSLA battery patents: 9-grams in claim language
21
Tesla’s technology would risk being copied even if it owned all the
patents assigned to it…but it has actually given its IP away
Patents have no value beyond the ability to enforce them; unless this is a PR platitude with no realworld meaning, then TSLA has discarded a key source of competitive advantage
Translation: “please do not sue us, established auto manufacturers of the world!” Engineers do build
technology leadership, but IP (and the threat of mutually assured destruction) maintains it
22
Tesla imports large volumes of strategic components in a supply
network that is volatile and poorly understood
Two 10x swings in
less than a year
23
Tesla’s need to reduce cost requires tough negotiations with
numerous strategic suppliers, possibly leading to drastic recent shifts
Drastic supply shifts October ‘15
Top Tesla suppliers, containers per year
J-13 F-13 M-13 A-13 M-13 J-13 J-13 A-13 S-13 O-13 N-13 D-13 J-14 F-14 M-14 A-14 M-14 J-14 J-14 A-14 S-14 O-14 N-14 D-14 J-15 F-15 M-15 A-15 M-15 J-15 J-15 A-15 S-15 O-15 N-15 D-15 J-16 F-16
Sanyo Electric Co. Ltd. 43416 34532 48600 51605 50760 62650 41040 80460 73374 75384 99360 81297 74376 95040 1E+05 84240 1E+05 1E+05 68178 69120 2E+05 2E+05 2E+05 28080 1E+05 2E+05 3E+05 1E+05 30247 2E+05 1E+05 1E+05 2E+05 2E+05 2E+05 2E+05 2E+05 2E+05
Luvata Pori Oy
48
47
58
58
33
33
34
35
33
29
60
70
69
102
41
0
121
120
62
35
12
Fukuta Electric & Machinery Co.,Ltd
28
21
97
159
100
176
145
240
195
177
116
183
126
155
210
214
298
230
283
208
136
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Ceramtec Gmbh
Ningbo Jinyi Automotive Parts
Hota Industrial Mfg. Co., Ltd.
Srems Zhongshan Cenity Electronic
Pektron Plc
4
118
0
15
107
251
127
124
178
129
90
78
79231 4E+05 1E+05 9E+05 3E+05
7890 15241 4080 7620 12208 12533 28856 27310 30468 26324 22950 24616 10460 31226 27780 37734 6250
0
0
0
0
0
12483
4
1
0
1
2
4
31201 62400 46800 78000 54600
5509 5244 5227 5079 7410 4692 5302 5388 6958 5797 4254 7704 4988 7070 1718 5714 9170 11822 6013 18389 15167 14220 12304 1457 6857 7055 13743 7195 3304 1245 2561 4900 6139 7646
836
668
2428 2073 4100
248
1708 2791 2366 2244 1718 3660 2841 3808 1647 4147 5722 4872 3379
993
7200 2599 3006 9776 7930 4288 23695 9196 9752 6429 6729 6337 3045 5968 2538 4364 3634 6499 3883 3430 1840 1450
1
7584
0
63
28
7
41
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1600
600
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1155
55
73
500
0
1080
540
39
19
35
62
82
98
300
1080
360
124
37
39
0
0
0
0
0
0
4549 20098 19120 24388 24406 22608
1399 1765 1428 1565 1310 1146 1422 2146 1633 2824 2086 1226 2559 2076 2433 3015 2950 1693 2167 3147 3378 2346 2858 1266 3804 1942 4110 4202 3888 3456 3930 4886 2240 3702 3956 3968 3622 2508
0
0
0
1558 2904
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
729
762
3283 1948
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
34
0
0
0
0
48
408
0
0
61
4
4690 5790 3256
1296 1296 11231 6406 6912 8208 1728 1728 2160
13
9
2
10
5
6
10
432
36
1296 1728 4752 4035
1
3
0
0
2753
678
3613 6623 4663 4343 6807 3547 4083 6379 5333 5733 5917 2105
26136
27
39921 33780
5745 2982 2428 3491 3746 2896 3977 5438 3959 4892 3573 3238
Amtek Plastic (Shenzhen) Ltd
0
0
115
170
214
196
121
88
319
121
1003
62
731
879
1706
415
Wabco Fahrzeugsysteme Gmbh
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
700 22500 20272 17900 11000
Dura Automotive Systems Gmbh
0
3
2
3
2
1
6
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
10
9
4
3
6
7
4
4
8
8
10
23
3971 18793 13146 14073 22270
1024 1242
983
387
722
1132 1083
954
1037 1084 1223
301
2487
843
1350 1305 1260
945
765
900
900
1485 1825 1848 3150
900
1848 2700 1944 1944 1944 3036 1044 1992 1140 1944
Sixxon Precision Machinery Co., Ltd
Fuji Polymer Industries Co., Ltd.
705
900
1324 1158 1945 2452 2453 1359 2767 1211 4735 1596
864
41
2000 2300 5000 5000 3948 2787
240
1432 1728 4682 3864 1296 5616 4320 3888 4321
1200 1470 1000
Nishikawa Rubber Co., Ltd.
Premo Mediterranee Sarl
2000 1800 2216
0
0
Barum Continental Spol Sro
Amtek(Suzhou) Precision Engineering
6
31
0
7441 5171 4171 1306 3143 5308 10115 8802 3950 7662 8846 10151 5706 7068 12371 9541 8309 2961
1771 2287 1898 1277
Tesla Motors Netherlands
0
0
0
21
0
0
0
2
48
0
0
0
6
74
66
260
Leopold Kostal Gmbh & Co Kg
0
58
43
0
9
0
32
26
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Panasonic Corporation
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
600
Rogers Technologies (Suzhou)Co.,Ltd
2113 1240 1195 1740 1395 1546 1382 1465
1200 1194 1786
0
565
519
0
3551 2252 1823
1409 1882
3
15
350
0
1298 2331 1098 3948 1673 1604 1378 2203 1679 1697 1940 1705 2595
1044 2088 2256 1044
964
234
2806
571
4
0
7
3
1080 1872 3852 3840 1596
0
900
2088 1992 2161
192
405
1164 1080 1080 1164 1068
1646 2859 1204 1417 2163 1475 2749 2637 1981 3635 2653 18335
4
3
4
1
2
7
2
6386 17626 15491 5480 7305
2220 2400 1140 3840 3480 2112 1536 3636 1320 2652 5160 1716 3732 2928
1760
326
988
356
712
906
916
920
686
631
447
206
2594 2350 1245
0
846
1074 1230 3074 1479 1698
979
1292 1198 2090 1690 2768 2106 1632
Transtek Magnetics Ltd.
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
302
389
884
882
1616
812
51
767
964
1287
683
549
1688 1637 4207
0
1195 3346 2606 2506 2106 2390
843
1706 1442 2862 2534 2231 2968 1350
Flextronics International Kft
19
127
85
53
90
85
156
138
55
93
121
33
224
43
88
99
187
66
0
176
222
160
184
61
49
119
376
165
303
233
254
110
Huf Huelsbeck & Fuerst Gmbh & Co Kg
0
0
0
12
10
9
33
11
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
34
30
26
5
20
18
30
21
27
30
27
22
28
4359 14428
Isabellenhuette Heusler Gmbh & Co K
0
0
0
0
10
10
15
15
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
28
32
27
28
22
12
38
7
7
10
22
26
17
6000 3950 10300 12000 11200
Bizlink Technology Inc
619
143
667
311
371
873
324
833
491
392
279
685
1068
315
430
815
918
861
0
569
1790
971
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
4762 12897
Magnetec-Ungarn Kft.
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
15
18
5962 7560 6440 10360 8400
0
2
0
0
0
0
10
20
20
12
18
20
18
20
8
26
6726 5760 9120 11520 4806
U-Shin Slovakia Sro
0
0
0
0
0
0
598
605
428
706
760
338
0
0
0
0
0
0
1130 1145
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
928
1229
920
690
1130
848
1227
943
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1649 1735 1385 1321 1386 1308 1458
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
244
0
793
15204 10936
256
Metalsa Automotive Hainichen
1826 1443 1850
10
Csf Poland Sp Zoo
Halla Visteon Climate Control Corp.
1331 1738 1382 2365
1027 8986 8000 7468 13002 4044
1208 1832 1638 2171 1587 1447 1385
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1144 2031 2332 2479 2248 3081 1887
22
16
784
0
0
0
0
0
0
89
0
14200 8179
0
0
8594 2232 15688 4920
Khl Interior Gmbh
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
8
10
4
8
10
2921 4554 6716 6456 3648
Viasystems Asia Pacific Co Ltd
0
789
416
518
366
106
251
181
493
1175
158
339
246
1084
333
337
1021
818
616
501
952
1185 1266
0
346
218
1136
943
756
483
391
651
769
1676
419
Tpk Touch Solution(Xiamen)Inc.
7
2
16
15
11
13
312
432
384
500
341
360
413
636
516
874
392
445
609
345
722
720
848
0
449
865
656
1176
624
880
624
768
832
900
1256 1077 1353
89
138
420
186
120
124
310
260
391
324
373
403
484
416
421
226
376
485
366
307
0
706
594
378
190
743
849
691
247
1178 1095 1685
494
1492
557
548
1003
296
Ningbo Yexing Automotive Part Co.,
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5579 6821 6357
843
Tesla Motors Hk Ltd
10
0
1
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
0
0
0
0
0
23
0
0
0
3712
0
0
0
5016
0
0
12
0
5184
Gaoyao Hongxing Precision Casting
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
480
1976 4621 10048 1860
Connor Manufacturing(Suzhou)Co.Ltd.
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
63
0
315
630
918
5
21
6
989
2410 2518 2245 1692
Hanon Systems.
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
679
1209 3510 3002 3351 2629 1801
139
164
88
18
115
142
117
109
81
177
146
2488
106
124
256
134
273
397
322
47
166
301
273
16
101
56
146
136
162
233
142
106
119
Hongfujin Precision
Brembo Spa
Abrupt supply
ramp-ups
Abrupt supply
discontinuations
1328 1717 1860
“December effect”
2806
0
154
1158
959
0
230
776
5136
167
753
0
5144
24
Tesla is increasingly dependent on battery and motor imports
The “smoking gun”: as
deployment of diverse
motor parts increases, the
probability of patent
infringement increases
25
Tesla’s cost position is driven by negotiations with suppliers (e.g. Panasonic and
Fukuta) with incentives to charge high prices for advanced technologies
Aluminum (for doors, hood, etc.)
Supplier
Constellium France Sas
Constellium Neuf Brisach
Constellium Singen Gmbh
Toyota Tsusho Corporation
Sanmina-Sci Enclosure System
Premo Mediterranee Sarl
King Lai International Co., Ltd.
Aleris Aluminium Duffel Bvba
Constellium
Hunan Xiangtou Goldsky Titanium
Kobe Steel, Ltd.
Kobe Steel,Ltd.
Mga International
Odawara Engineerinbg Co.,Ltd.
Sanmina-Sci Enclosure Systems
Shenzhen Meinie Tool & Die Co Ltd
Srems Zhongshan Cenity Electronic
Basic industrial commodity
Batteries
# bills
67
40
23
12
11
7
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Supplier
Sanyo Electric Co. Ltd. (Panasonic)
Lg Electronics Inc
Tesla Motors Netherlands
Samsung Sdi Co.,Ltd
Ningbo Jinyi Automotive Parts
Tesla Motors Ltd
Samsung Sdi Co.,Ltd.
Tesla Motors Japan Kk
Shenzhen Tat Fook Tech Co Ltd
Tesla Automobile Distribution
Atlasbx Co., Ltd.
Tesla Motors Hk Ltd
Aig Verpackungs Gmbh
Brabus Gmbh
Galliker Transport Ag
Valuable semi-commodity
Motors & motor parts
# bills
521
56
52
49
19
10
7
5
5
4
4
3
3
1
1
1
Supplier
Fukuta Electric & Machinery Co.,Ltd
Da Horn Refining Co., Ltd.
Faurecia (Wuxi) Seating Components
Kuen Tong Industrial Co., Ltd.
Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology
Hongfujin Precision
Igarashi Electric Works Hk Ltd
Mabuchi Taiwan Co., Ltd.
Tesla Motors Taiwan Limited
Semyung Industrial, Co., Ltd.
Sixxon Precision Machinery Co., Ltd
Brembo Spa
Faurecia (Yancheng) Automotive Syst
Central Corporation
Eaton Automotive Controls Ltd.
Jiu-Bor Industrial Co.,Ltd.
# bills
251
79
75
62
60
41
38
35
34
28
18
16
15
12
10
10
9
Critical technology chokepoint
Tesla does not own its IP, and worse, it doesn’t own the technology within its motors.
As soon as Tesla becomes profitable its margins will be drained by its vendor network
26
Executive Summary
−
−
−
−
−
−
27
Finally, all-electric vehicles are not as sustainable as they may
seem; this is a serious brand risk and an unknown legal exposure
“
”
Battery Sourcing
Battery Charging
“Graphite…is mined and processed
in China where graphite pollution
has fouled air and water, damaged
crops and raised health
concerns…Tesla
concerns…Tesla’
Tesla’s factory alone
could double demand for graphite
in batteries.” -- Bloomberg
“When a wire is connected to an
electric vehicle at one end and a
coal-fired power plant at the other
end, the environmental
consequences are worse than
driving a normal gasolinegasoline-powered
car…allcar…all-electric vehicles cause 86%
more deaths from air pollution
than do cars powered by regular
gasoline.“ -- Carnegie Inst. for Sci.
“Initial production of the vehicle
and the batteries together make up
something like 40 percent of the
total carbon footprint of an EV—
EV
nearly double that of an equivalent
gasoline-powered vehicle.” -- EC
“The extraction of lithium has
significant environmental and social
impacts,
impacts especially due to water
pollution and depletion.” -- EC
“A carbon emissions surcharge [was]
slapped on…the Model S [in
Singopore for]…an equivalent CO2
emission of 222g/km. The
emissions were calculated using a
"grid emissions factor" [for]
emissions created by energy use …
when its battery converts electricity
into power” -- CNBC
Battery Disposal
“The recovery rate of lithium ion
batteries, even in first world
countries, is in the single digit
percent range. Most batteries end
up in landfill.”
landfill -- Tech Metals
Insider
“The environmental impacts
include resource depletion, global
warming, and ecological toxicity —
primarily resulting from the
production, processing, and use of
cobalt and nickel metal
compounds,
compounds which can cause
adverse respiratory, pulmonary,
and neurological effects in those
exposed.” -- ABT Associates
28
Pounds of toxic cobalt and unstable lithium are present in each
Tesla EV, and present a serious safety (as well as moral) hazard
Cobalt
Tesla Battery Pack
Immediately dangerous to life and health at 20
mg / m3 (microgram / L)
A Tesla EV contains 18 pounds of cobalt
distributed throughout the battery cells
This toxic concentration of a dangerous heavy
metal is core to Tesla vehicle performance
Lithium
Lithium in damaged battery cells is known to
lead to spontaneous and violent explosions
The Model S stores 30 pounds of lithium in
cells with reduced individual safety features
From US20150111082A1: Cell Module Assemblies
What happens when aging Tesla batteries get
compacted and punctured in landfills?
Just as switching from tobacco cigarettes to e-cigarettes is still bad for your health,
switching from gas automobiles to electric vehicles is still bad for the environment
29
On market price adjustments:
There’s a man goin’ round takin’ names.
An’ he decides who to free and who to blame.
Everybody won’t be treated all the same.
There’ll be a golden ladder reaching down.
When the man comes around.
-Johnny Cash
30
Thank you
For more information, please contact Devonshire Research Group, LLC on Bloomberg: SURFHACKER

Tesla Motors, Inc. - Devonshire Research Group, LLC

Transcription

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