April - What Really Wins Money

WRWM_0410.qxd
21/4/10
16:25
Page 1
April 2010
What Really Wins Money
An independent review of tipsters and betting systems
Welcome to April’s WRWM!
The flat season is very much to the fore now.
Thankfully, we won’t see the pain of a jumps horse
like Black Jack Blues falling at 1/8 with the
Champion Jockey on board.
This month Statman will start by taking you
through some flat stats for horses making their 1st
and 2nd appearances of the season and how we can
use these to profit.
Martin Blakey focuses on high-class flat
handicaps and Better Tipster offer some nods and
winks for the 2000 Guineas.
I go “all red” to spot potential stable gambles,
and also show you how to exploit Betfair multiples
for accumulators with bigger strike rates. The
Patriarch takes a look at traditional bookies
multiples, and, as usual, there’s the System and
Tipsters Update to round things off.
IN THIS ISSUE:
Martin Blakey’s Handicap Secrets: Simple
Handicap Strategy for Finding High-Class
Horses at Great Value Prices ...........................3
Better Tipster: Free Tips from the 2
Man Tipster Operation with Genuine
Insider Knowledge ..........................................4
Stable Gambles from Strongly Tipped
Horses: How to Uncover Insider Gambles
and Early Morning Steamers – Free
Insider Information .........................................6
Football Accumulator Success: If You
Want to Profit from Accumulators You
Have to Read This ............................................8
The Patriarch Presents: Is Clive’s Advice
Right or are Multiple Bets for Mugs? ...........11
SYSTEMS AND TIPSTERS UPDATE ........12
The Statman
Early Flat-Season Tactics:
How to Use These Stats to
Spot First and Second
Race Winners
T
he flat season is almost a month old, and we still
face the same annual problem: races full of
horses that are having their first or second runs of
the season.
Why is this a problem? Because, if you’re not
armed with an arsenal of stats there is often very little
form. Or the form that is around is not too reliable.
This makes picking winners hard work. And that’s
where yours truly, The Statman, comes to the rescue!
In this article I am going to be looking to see if
we can find those trainers who specialize in the art
of preparing a horse to come out of the blocks at full
speed early on in the flat season.
By “early on in the flat season” I mean I will be
looking at horses that are having their first or second
runs of the season.
Some of the trainer angles will remain valid
throughout the flat season as trainers bring their horses
out to the track for the first time later in the season.
Let me define what I mean by “first run of
the season”.
For me (and more importantly for the stats) the
first run of the season is the first run on the turf, but
this doesn’t include those horses that have run on the
all-weather or even over jumps!
The second run is the next run after the first as
described above!
So, on to the stats…
I’ll start by looking at the first run of the season,
as this would be a logical place to start the analysis!
please turn over
WRWM_0410.qxd
21/4/10
16:25
Page 2
season. Some trainers use the first run to prepare
their horses for future races. These are the trainers
that I’m looking for here; those who use the first run
to prepare for a win on the second run, while their
counterparts are still getting into the swing of things.
When compiling these stats I am using over 10
years worth of data, and looking for winning stats
that give a strike rate of over 40%.
I am also looking for consistency in the stats so
all of these trainer angles haven’t had a losing year
in the past 10.
By the time the second runs start coming out, the
flat season is still in its infancy and the formbook is
still sketchy.
As we can see from the table below, some
trainers have an incredible strike rate with their
horses on the first run of the season.
Trainer
Criteria
Age
Strike ROI
Rate
Smart B
SP <= 2/1
ALL
78%
113%
Jarvis W
SP <= 4/1
3 yo
67%
175%
Scargill J
SP <= 7/1
ALL
57%
250%
Magnusson M A
SP <= 9/1
3 yo
57%
314%
Tregoning M P
Kempton Only 3 yo
50%
240%
Oxx J
SP <= 8
ALL
50%
267%
Wall C
SP <= 11/1
4 yo+
40%
199%
Jarvis M
Doncaster Only 2 yo
50%
Haggas W
Folkestone Only ALL
50%
Jarvis A
SP <= 11/1
3 yo
45%
This is why I’ll be able to unearth some gems
here too.
Trainer
Criteria
Age
Strike ROI
Rate
Semple I
SP <= 5/1,
Returning in
15 – 35 days
ALL
64%
155%
Duffield A
SP <= 4/5,
Returning in
6 – 14 days
ALL
63%
166%
484%
Johnston M
Catterick Only
4 yo+
57%
246%
324%
Cumani L
Ayr Only
ALL
57%
222%
225%
O’Brien A P
Chester Only
3 yo
50%
302%
Hills B
Newcastle Only ALL
50%
192%
Jarvis M
Placed in first
race of season
4 yo+
50%
118%
SP <= 20/1
3 yo
40%
507%
Haydn Jones D
SP <= 10/1
2 yo
45%
186%
Bolger J S
Returning in
15 – 35 days
2 yo
45%
180%
Look at B Smart he has an excellent strike rate of
78% for any runner making its first appearance of
the season at odds of 2/1 or below.
Hiatt P W
Also of note is W Jarvis for three year olds below
4/1 with a strike rate or 67%. As we can see there
are some very profitable trainers to be following on
their first runs of the season.
As we have seen in previous articles, the speed,
with which the trainer returns the horse to the track
after its last run can be a contributing factor, as it is
for three of the trainers in this list. Again, here you’ll
see some impressive stats for the second run of the
season. With a season average of 8%, I Semple
knocks out a pretty impressive 64% strike rate with
some of his second-time runners. Always worth
keeping an eye for!
Here are the three horses that J Scargill had
running last year that fitted this trainer angle two out
three, 66%, with 11.5 point profile to SP!
Date
Course
Horse
Result
SP
19 June
NEWMARKET
Silent Applause
1
11/2
04 July
LEICESTER
Big Noise
1
7/1
17 July
NEWMARKET
Bobby Charles
7
11/2
Second race stats
Last year I Semple had three horses that fitted
this trainer angle and once again two out of three ran
continued on page 3...
I now want to move onto the second run of the
It is my intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, the publishers and their representatives cannot be
held responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgement whatsoever. What Really Wins Money is sold on
this understanding. ISSN: 1741 9018
All subscription correspondence to: What Really Wins Money,
Subscription Office, Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainault Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5SS.Tel: 0208 597 0181 Fax: 0208 597 4040.
Registered office: Canonbury Publishing Ltd. Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ.
Registered in England No. 4765425 Vat Reg No. 811 5700 64
© Copyright What Really Wins Money 2010
2
WRWM_0410.qxd
21/4/10
16:25
Page 3
up winners with a 6.25 point profit to SP.
‘Returning in...’ – this is the number of days since the horse last ran
Date
Course
Horse
Result
SP
22 May
NEWCASTLE
Forrest Flyer
1
5/1
17 July
HAMILTON
Doon Haymer
1
9/4
Prince Rhyddarch 7
5/1
12 August HAMILTON
It is the number after the horse’s name on the racecard.
‘SP’ or Starting Price – for some of these statistics I have used the
SP as a filter; the SP must either be above or below a set value.
Wait until close to the race and watch the live race to ensure that
the SP is below the criteria value
Use the ‘Betting Forecast’ from your chosen publication, to be
found at the bottom of the racecard.
At the beginning of the article I stated that the
first run of the season did not to include any
preparatory all-weather run.
Specified Finish Position in last race,
This is the right-hand most number in the Form Figures, the row of
six or seven numbers found to the left of the horse’s name on most
race cards.
Now I want to now have a look at the trainers that
use the all-weather tracks to get their horses ready
for the turf flat season.
Win Last Out the right-most number must be ‘1’
Specified Course Only – some ‘Angles’ are only valid at specified
courses.
So here I’m looking at those horses that have run
on the all-weather and then gone for the first run on
the turf. The reasoning behind this is that some
trainers will use the all-weather tracks in the spring
to get their horses race fit to hit the start of the flat
season running (pardon the pun!).
Trainer
Criteria
Age
Strike ROI
Rate
Johnston M
Catterick Only
ALL
63%
173%
Hills B
Folkestone Only
ALL
53%
239%
Alston E
Winner last time
3 yo
43%
171%
Swinbank G A
Winner last time
ALL
46%
142%
Morrison H
Returning in 6 –
14 days
4 yo+
50%
475%
Saunders M
Winner last time
ALL
67%
392%
The course name is at the top of the race card
‘Age’ – this is the Age criteria of the Race
This is generally in brackets after the Race Name at the top of the
racecard.
Martin Blakey’s Handicap Secrets
Simple Handicap
Strategy for Finding
High-Class Horses at
Great Value Prices
C
ontinuing his masterclass in all things handicap,
Martin Blakey, this month, focuses on highclass handicap races. Over to Martin...
Now the flat season is picking up and the better
handicaps are starting to come through, I want to
concentrate this month on identifying class horses at
value prices.
Remember that these trainers have used a run on
the all-weather before to prepare their horses for the
start of the flat season. Again, some impressive stats
to give a guide as to where to put our money!
With this particular strategy I am only interested
in class 2 and class 3 handicaps, concentrating on
the first five horses in the betting forecast using the
Racing Post.
Well, I think that I’ve given you enough to keep
you going through these early perilous days of the
flat season, there are some great trainer angles here
to help keep that punting profitable!
The betting forecast is found at the base of the
racecard at http://thebettingsite.racingpost.co.uk
Until next time when I’ll be taking a closer look
at the flat season, to find more stats to add to the
arsenal in the war against the bookies.
The form in the better class handicaps is much
stronger and I use a simple method for eliminating
horses which may not be up to the task of running in
such a good class race.
All the best and, as always, profitable punting!
Chris James – THE STATMAN
TalkingRaceHorses.wordpress.com
This is very straightforward compared to some of
the other strategies I have given you over the past
few months; however, it will point you in the
direction of some very nice bets indeed.
please turn over
All the data that you need to find these selections is available free
of charge on a number of websites or in your chosen daily paper
(www.racingpost.com and www.sportinglife.com are the obvious
starting points).
3
WRWM_0410.qxd
21/4/10
16:25
Page 4
The rules
however, this method as it stands will throw up
some really good betting opportunities in these good
class handicaps
1. Target all flat handicaps of class 2 or class 3 only.
2. Concentrate on the first five horses in the betting
forecast using the Racing Post or at
http://thebettingsite.racingpost.co.uk.
Better Tipster
Free Tips from the
2-Man Tipster
Operation with Genuine
Insider Knowledge
3. Look for any horse that is dropping in class from
its last two races. For example, if today’s race is a
class 3, then any qualifier must have run in a class
2 race or higher in each of its last two races.
4. Any qualifier must not have won in either of its
last two races.
I
have been following and proofing this tipping
service (www.bettertipster.co.uk) for some time,
and have been quietly impressed with the genuine
information they seem to have access to, and the
long-term profits accrued.
5. No qualifier must have gone up in the weights
since its last run. For example, if the horse ran off
a mark of 85 last time out, it must be running off
the same mark or lower in today’s race.
The service is a two man operation, albeit it must
be said there are contacts from major stables and in
the racing media.
Example
Tuesday 13 April
Pontefract 3.20. (Class 3 Handicap)
Better Tipster’s information for the Cheltenham
Festival was superb – and offered free with my
WRWM eletter on the Friday before the Cheltenham
Festival.
In this race the first five horses in the Racing Post
betting forecast were:
Kiwi Bay
Harrison George
Tartan Gunna
Jesse James
Fastnet Storm
Here are the results listed below:
Imperial Commander 10-1 WINS – Ante Post
Peddlers Cross 9-1 WINS – Ante Post
From the above five horses only two were
dropping in class from their last two races.
Kyber Kim 10-1 2nd – Ante Post
Somersby 6-1 2nd – Ante Post
Harrison George. (Class 2 to Class 3) Today’s
handicap mark 95. Last time out handicap
mark 95.
Kility Storm 14-1 2nd – Ante Post
Big Bucks 8-13 WINS – Ante Post
Tartan Gunna. (Class 2 to Class 3) Today’s
handicap mark 90. Last time out handicap
mark 91.
Noble Prince 11-1 – 5th BET365 quarter the odds
12345.
The guy behind Better Tipster had a personal
Accumulator and Lucky 30. (He is, of course, my
new best friend.)
Neither of these two horses had won in their last
two attempts, and both were running off the same or
lower handicap mark as in their previous race.
Peddlers Cross 10-1 WON
Result: Harrison George. Won 11-2
Tartan Gunna. 3rd 15-2
Imperial Commander 10-1 WON
Kility Storm 14-1 2nd
I would tend to leave the race alone if there are
more than two qualifiers, on the majority of
occasions there will only be one horse that meets
with the criteria. You can of course look deeper into
the form once you have found your qualifiers,
Big Bucks 8-13 WON
Kyber Kim 9-1 2nd.
With my interest piqued by the excellent advice for
4
WRWM_0410.qxd
21/4/10
16:25
Page 5
amazing speed.
Cheltenham, I asked Better Tipster if they would offer
me some freebies for readers for this flat season...
Wait a second, showing amazing speed you say?
Is this not the same horse that that ran poorly over 6
furlongs in France? Ah, is the Guineas not over a
mile? Put a line through this one also.
Let’s have a quick look at the upcoming Lincoln
race.
It’s the first major flat race of the year with 21
runners. The majority of the horses are having their
first outing of the season.
On a more positive note, the horse that does catch
my eye and has all the right attributes is Awzaan,
Trained by Mark Johnston who has already won the
race with Mister Baileys.
So one has to ask oneself how they can possibly
tell how far forward each stable is. Just remember
the winter we had!
Awzaan has won all of the four races he has run
in. If you can watch a few of the races look at the way
Awzaan finishes, going away and not stopping. The
horses breeding indicates he should be able to handle
a mile with no problems and the trainer can also
confirm this.
I am sure you’re aware the actual favourite did
win at 3/1 (Penitent). The trainer was extremely
bullish and we had been told that the horse was
working with Group 1 animals only a few days
before the race.
However, he was not advised as a bet because we
felt it lacked the all-important value.
Priced at 10/1, it seems fair value and a horse I
will certainly have a few pounds E/W on, if not,
place a larger stake and look to trade off once the
value is recognised by the big punters. The horse is
also one of our notebook horses, of which a list was
recently sent out to members.
In fact, we backed Prime Exhibit EW who
finished 2nd at 12/1. Do we regret not backing the
winner? Well, yes, but it was not worth taking such a
risk on a horse priced at 3/1 in this type of race.
You may disagree but my thoughts are nope.
I’ve included a little preview below of what to
expect from the list. These are our notes on Desert
Myth:
Anyway, that race was in the past so let’s try and
unearth a bit of value for the 2000 Guineas.
The top two horses in the betting are Sir Nicholas
Abbey & Canford Cliffs.
Desert Myth. Sir M Stoute
Desert Myth failed to make the track last season
and received quite a few minor injuries. These
problems have now been treated. For the first time,
Desert Myth has enjoyed a clear run. His work at
home has always been nothing short of brilliant. The
horse is thought of as being a class act and also
holds a Derby entry. I am hopeful that Desert Myth
will remain injury free and fulfil the promise that he
has shown at home. I will certainly be following him
wherever he runs.
St Nicholas Abbey has already been tagged the
new wonder horse for the flat. There is no doubt it
has been impressive and the horse is thought of as
very special (the trainer’s own words), but why
would you back this horse antepost at 2/1?
Surely it can’t start any shorter on the day, plus
the horse is not 100% certain to even run. In my
opinion I would put a line through Sir Nicholas
Abbey or back on the day once the horse lines up.
The second contender in the betting is Canford
Cliffs, priced at 5/1. It has started just three races, of
which only winning two. Canford Cliffs’ third race,
and biggest test, came in France over 6 furlongs.
If you’d like to keep up to date with our notebook
horses please keep an eye on our blog at
http://www.bettertipster.co.uk/blog where we’ll post
regular entries on their progress. One last thing I
should note about the service is that our phone is
switched on all day.
As normal the horse showed a great pace but
seem to run out of breath at a furlong out. It was the
first-time pressure on this animal that in my opinion is
the reason that it failed to deliver. More recent reports
are that the horse is working well and showing
All members have my number and if they require
any information or help with betting, or even if they
please turn over
5
WRWM_0410.qxd
21/4/10
16:25
Page 6
are having a day at the races and want their cards
marking, all they have to do is call.
Betting strategy
How to Uncover Insider
Gambles and Early
Morning Steamers – Free
Insider Information
I
t’s time to get “ all red”. No, I’m not talking about
changing your allegiances to Liverpool FC and
then sitting out in the scorching sun for too long, I
am talking about a little technique that can help pinpoint likely stable gambles, and strongly-tipped
horses whose prices are collapsing and are likely to
shorten as the day progresses.
Raptor is the qualifier here – 11/2 in the betting
forecast and generally 9/4 (and all red) in the betting
1st (1) Raptor
2nd (5) Daredevil Dan
What does this mean for you?
Well, those Betfairians amongst you can see a
trading angle with this method and traditional bettors
can see an opportunity to get in on some good stable
gambles and insider information without having to
pay for it.
And it’s as simple as 1-2-3!
Here are the three steps to unearthing these
gambles:
1) Go to http://thebettingsite.racingpost.co.uk
2) Looking through the racecards, make a note of all
horses whose odds are showing red across the
board (the odds will either be red or blue – red
signifies the odds are shortening and blue hints at
a drift in price).
2:15 – Wetherby Racecourse Sunday Car-Boot-Sale
Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle
» Full result
3) Check the betting forecast at the racecard. Are the
odds in the live betting market significantly shorter
than the odds in the betting forecast? This could
add credence to our argument that this is a fancied
horse today.
2m1⁄2f, Class 5, £2,055.30
1 Ballysimon 7/2
2 Sharadiyn 16/1
3 Woodlark Island 11/10F
I told you it was easy, and here are a few real-life
examples to guide you (note that we do not have the
facility for colour reproduction so I will highlight
the horse with the “all red” odds and would ask that
you go to http://thebettingsite.racingpost.co.uk on
any racing day and see what I am talking about – it
will be easily recognisable).
Comment – Ballysimon is “all red” at 8/1 in the
live betting, and he was 16/1 in the betting forecast.
Look at the price at which he won – 7/2!
Can you see why I advocate possibly trading later
in this article?
6
WRWM_0410.qxd
21/4/10
16:25
Page 7
3:45 – John Smith’s Topham Chase (Handicap)
(Listed Race)
2:20 – Trustmark Design And Print Maiden
Stakes
» Full result
» Full result
2m51⁄2f, Class 1, £56,330.00
5f, Class 5, £2,729.60
1 Always Waining 22/1
2 Scotsirish 14/1
3 Isn’t That Lucky 16/1
4 Dooneys Gate 28/1
1 Bathwick Bear 9/1
2 Scarlet Rocks 14/1
3 Ivan’s A Star 22/1
Comment – Sometimes it’s worth a gamble.
Always Waining is 40/1 in the betting forecast and
25/1 and all red in this big field race at Aintree
recently. His price reduced further to 22/1 SP.
Comment – bathwick bear – 14/1 in the betting
forecast , all red and 9/1 in the live market.
4:55 – John Smith’s smithythehorse.com
Handicap Hurdle Grade 3
1 Ride A White Swan 9/2
2 Namu 16/1
3 Tri Chara 11/4F
» Full result
Comment – Pay attention to horses that are
catapulted into favouratism in the live betting
market. Here Ride A White Swan was 7/1 in the
betting forecast, and 4/1 favourite in the live betting
3m1⁄2f, Class 1, £28,505.00
1 Ringaroses 10/1
2 Carsonstown Boy 16/1
3 Bob ‘N’ You 11/1
4 Buena Vista 12/1
please turn over
7
WRWM_0410.qxd
21/4/10
16:25
Page 8
This allows us to at least collect should a horse
place in the race in question.
Comment – Bob ‘N’ You and Carsontown Boy
both qualify here and finish 2nd and 3rd – eachway betting becomes a viable option therefore given
the price.
Pointers to success
I usually look at
http://thebettingsite.racingpost.co.uk between 11.00
am and 11:45 am.
I would advise those of you looking to try out
this seed of an idea to perhaps take screenshots of
likely candidates and check results at the day end.
Do remember that not all of these “all reds” will
win.
I must say that I receive information from a
tipster who provides insider information and
generally the “all red” bets I select are the ones that
he gives out regularly!
1 On Khee 5/2F
2 One Cool Poppy 16/1
3 Bubbly Braveheart 8/1
Football Accumulator Success
If You Want to Profit
from Accumulators You
Have to Read This…
Comment – Here we have On Khee who is 5/1 in
the betting forecast and 3/1, all red, and favourite.
How can you profit?
Earlier I mentioned that there were two ways of
benefitting from these potential gambles:
T
hey say that accumulators are a mug is bet, and
that bookies love to take these bets off punters,
and for good reason: the odds are stacked in the
bookies’ favour.
1) Trading
and
So change your approach!
2) Traditional betting – preferably each-way betting
If you want to profit from accumulators, think
about the world of Betfair Multiples.
Trading
If “all red “ odds at
http://thebettingsite.racingpost.co.uk signify a
horse’s price is shortening, and we spot this early
enough, we can assume that this will continue up
until race time. How can we exploit this?
And I hope, as you read through this article, that
you will rediscover the world of accumulator betting
and this time stack the odds in your favour!
Perhaps we can back the horse at Betfair upon
spotting a potential gamble and lay that horse nearer
race time at a shorter price and guarantee a free bet?
Betfair’s multiples are available at
www.betfair.com.
Betfair multiples – an introduction
These multiples are available for horse racing,
tennis, and football generally.
Traditional betting
Ignore the horse racing – this is the same as backing
horses in an accumulator with your bookmaker.
Because of the prices of these selections being
quite high, I would back each-way (or if using
Betfair split my stake between the place-only and
win-only markets).
But do read the article from the Patriarch this
month where he focuses on accumulator bets for
8
WRWM_0410.qxd
21/4/10
16:25
Page 9
horse racing and how you can make those pay.
think will win. In the above multiple it is Ajax who I
back.
Concentrate on the football when using Betfair
multiples.
Elsewhere I have chosen to LAY the opponents of
teams who are 1) very strongly fancied to win their
matches and 2) are mostly playing at home. Home
advantage and short prices normally result in the
home team not losing.
Betfair multiples and football – a match made
in heaven
Why do I insist on focusing your accumulator
betting on football matches using Betfair multiples?
4TH APRIL
The simple answer is our ability to lay football
teams in accumulators.
5 selections chosen
1 CSKA Sofia v Montana (Laying Montana @ 59.14)
Why is this so exciting?
2 Marseille v Lens (Laying Lens @ 17.49)
Laying a football team means that we are
opposing said football team.
3 Everton v West Ham (Laying West Ham @ 10.15)
4 Hamburg v Hannover (Laying Hannover @ 9.44)
In other words, we are effectively backing the
other team and we are backing the draw.
5 Santander v Real Madrid (Backing Real Madrid @
1.28)
We are covering two of the three possible
outcomes in a match!
5-folds
Now can you see how we can stack the
accumulator odds in our favour?
We can actually create an accumulator where we
cover two of the three outcomes in a traditional
football betting market (the three outcomes being
home win, draw, away win).
Selections
Odds* Stake
Potential win
1,2,3,4 and 5
1.71
£71.00
£100.00
Here, my banker bet is Real Madrid, and I
effectively enhance my returns by choosing four
other teams who are playing at home, strongly
fancied, so I lay their opponents.
Multiples examples:
3rd APRIL
11th APRIL
7 selections chosen
Seven selections chosen
1 Inter v Bologna (Laying Bologna @ 20.15)
1 Ajax v VVV (Backing Ajax @ 1.07)
2 Arsenal v Wolves (Laying Wolves @ 17.59)
2 Roma v Atalanta (Laying Atalanta @ 21.44)
3 Rangers v Hamilton (Laying Hamilton @ 37.16)
3 AC Milan v Catania (Laying Catania @ 13.63)
4 Liverpool v Fulham (Laying Fulham @ 16.91)
4 Rapid Vienna v Austria Karnten (Laying Austria
Karnten @ 50.04)
5 Man City v Birmingham (Laying Birmingham @
11.69)
5 Barcelona v Ath Bilbao (Backing Barcelona @ 1.17)
6 Panthrakikos v Olympiakos (Laying Panthrakikos
@ 14.13)
7 VVV v Twente (Laying VVV @ 8.66)
6 Sevilla v Tenerife (Laying Tenerife @ 9.91)
7-Folds
7 Marseille v Nice (Laying Nice @ 17.59)
Selections
Seven-folds
Selections
Odds* Stake
1,2,3,4,5,6 and 7 1.62
£100.00
Odds* Stake
1,2,3,4,5,6 and 7 1.73
Potential win
£100.00
Potential win
£73.00
*Odds shown are indicative and may vary. More info
£62.00
Total stake: £100.00
How do I like to construct my multiples? Well, I
like to choose one team as a banker – i.e. which I
Your total potential win: £73.00
please turn over
9
WRWM_0410.qxd
21/4/10
16:25
Page 10
Barcelona are available to back at 1.17 but I have
enhanced the odds by including a number of lays
(covering the draw in each of those matches).
need two goals to win, and that is assuming Bayern
do not score again in the interim. The task they face
is reflected in the bigger odds for Stuttgart after
Bayern took the lead.
27th MARCH
So we can hedge. Our stake on the above
multiple is £100. What we can now do, is to back
Stuttgart at higher odds once they go a goal down,
with enough stake to cover the £100 staked on the
Betfair multiple.
8 Selections Chosen
1 B Munich v Stuttgart (Laying Stuttgart @ 7.1)
2 W Bremen v Nurnberg (Laying Nurnberg @ 10.4)
3 Celtic v Kilmarnock (Laying Kilmarnock @
30.52)
For example’s sake, say the odds to back Stuttgart
increase to 25 after they go a goal down, we can
back them for £4 to give us a return of £100 (which, if
Stuttgart go on to win, will ensure that we break
even – our multiple would have lost but we would have
won £100).
4 Tottenham v Portsmouth (Backing Tottenham @
1.19)
5 Birmingham v Arsenal (Laying Birmingham @
7.68)
6 Lyon v Grenoble (Laying Grenoble @ 16.91)
So, by choosing in running football matches we
have this facility to hedge each of the matches we
have chosen.
7 Bolton v Man Utd (Laying Bolton @ 9.83)
8 AZ Alkmaar v Heracles (Laying Heracles @
10.44)
20th MARCH
8-Folds
Selections
Odds* Stake
1,2,3,4,5,6,7 and 8 2.39
£100.00
I am doing a far more speculative multiple
Potential win
Aston Villa v Wolves Match Odds:
Wolves Lay
367544113
20-Mar-10
12:149.91
Matched
£139.00
*Odds shown are indicative and may vary. More info
Total stake: £100.00
W Bremen v Bochum Match Odds:
W Bremen Back
367544114
20-Mar-10
12:14
1.36
Matched
Your total potential win: £139.00
When choosing this multiple, I noted that the
Bayern v Stuttgart game might be the weakest link.
Frankfurt v B Munich Match Odds:
Frankfurt Lay
367544115
20-Mar-10
12:14
8.96
Matched
In this instance, I would hedge.
Top tip: Choose in running matches for
your multiples to allow hedging
Celtic v St Johnstone Match Odds:
Celtic Back
367544116
20-Mar-10
12:14
1.21
Matched
Try, when you construct your Betfair multiples, to
select teams who also appear in running on Betfair.
Arsenal v West Ham Match Odds:
Arsenal Back
367544117
20-Mar-10
12:14
1.21
Matched
If your Betfair multiple selections appear in
running, you can hedge your bet.
Let me take the example above.
Real Madrid v Gijon Match Odds:
Real Madrid Back 367544118
20-Mar-10
12:14
1.11
Matched
Bayern v Stuttgart. Bayern have home advantage.
I chose to lay their opponents, thus covering the
draw. Bayern scored first in this game and the game
was in running.
This is a risky bet of course, but I think they are
reasonably strong and a good return at 2.81 or
thereabouts.
What happens when Bayern scores first? Well the
odds for Stuttgart rise. Why? Because Stuttgart now
10
WRWM_0410.qxd
21/4/10
16:25
Page 11
Here is another example where hedging is
advised. This is a big speculative multiple.
Coincidentally, I laid another opponent of Bayern
Munich. NOTE that Bayern Munich were away from
home, BUT the game was in running.
taken myself over the years. But is it always good
advice?
Nobody would call the professionals Dave
Nevison or Harry Findlay mug punters (to name but
two) and they both employ multiple bets on occasion
for bets like the tote Scoop Six or Super Seven. And
thousands of other savvy punters have used various
multiple approaches over the years and I thought it
might be instructive to look at some of them in this
punting age when compounding, greening-up and
trading out are all the rage (for which, I may say, I
have the greatest admiration).
Bayern Munich takes the lead! Frankfurt’s odds
rise. My stake here for my multiple was £40.
Let’s say, for sake of ease of example, that the
odds for Frankfurt rise to 20 after they go a goal
down. We can back Frankfurt for £2, so that if they
happen to win, we win £40 and thus cover our
multiple stake. Yes, Frankfurt won this match 2-1.
Let’s take a look at one of the favourite multiples
of all – the Yankee. You have four selections, backed
in six doubles, four trebles and an accumulator, each
of which is a kind of multiple in its own right.
Eleven bets in all, and depending on prices, two
winners might clear the bet or make a small profit,
and with three or four winners you are making
substantial profits. Then somebody had the idea of
adding four single bets to the Yankee, making 15
bets in total and calling it the Lucky 15. In my
opinion, it made it a better bet. Now there is a return
with only one winner, and if you search around
you’ll find bookmakers who will pay out double the
odds for a single winner, and some will even go to
trebling the odds if you have just the one winner. I
reckon that makes it a very fair bet indeed.
Note – the bigger the odds for your multiple, the
better hedging can be used.
Bottom line
So take a look at Betfair multiples and ready
yourself for the new football season, or even the
World Cup, and remember these tips.
• Find one team as a banker – back them in the
multiple, and enhance odds by LAYING the
opponents of teams who are strongly fancied
and playing at home. Remember, by laying a team
in a multiple we are covering TWO BETS OUT
OF THREE!!
I’d a friend, who died recently, who did a Lucky
15 every day with a 50p stake for a total invested of
£7.50. If he had any winners he’d always show me
the slip and ask me to work out how much he could
expect when he went to collect. Over the years I
seem to remember having to do lots of calculations,
and often for quite large sums. And he never
bothered looking for a bookmaker who’d pay out
double or treble odds for a single winner, despite my
telling him often enough to do so. Nor did he seem
to do much form study – a brief scan of The Sun
racing pages and the selections were made. The
Lucky Fifteen was certainly quite lucky for him.
• Try to construct your multiple from football teams
whose matches are in running on Betfair. This can
allow you to HEDGE those matches you may feel
trepidatious about.
• Do your research. I always do thorough research,
using either www.soccerstats.com or
www.betdevil.com (the latter is a ratings site and
offers more comprehensive head to heads).
The Patriarch Presents:
How to Make Multiple
Bets Work for You
Slightly less ambitious than the Yankee or Lucky
Fifteen is the Patent bet, one I like very much. This
time we have three selections and they are backed in
three singles, three doubles and a treble – seven bets
in all. You can reasonably expect some return on a
regular basis and a bigger payout on occasions. For
even more safety some might prefer to make their
bets each way, choosing races with 8, 9 or 10
please turn over
Multiple bets are for mugs, at least that’s what
most people say.
That’s the advice that is usually given to aspiring
punters, and I suppose it’s advice that I’ve largely
11
WRWM_0410.qxd
21/4/10
16:25
Page 12
runners. This time you are staking 14 bets, but there
should be some return on almost every occasion.
Should there be any interest in any of these
multiples I’ve mentioned, or the Union Jack laying
plan, I’ll be happy to provide more information in
later pieces.
And then came the Alphabet. I rather like the
name and I quite like the bet, too, covering as it
does, six selections. It’s a combination of Patent and
Yankee and involves 26 bets. These are six singles,
12 doubles, six trebles, a four-fold and a six-fold.
Here’s how it works. We’ll call our six selections A,
B, C, D, E and F. First we take ABC as a Patent,
seven bets. Then we have BCDE as a Yankee, 11
bets. And finally, DEF as another Patent, seven bets.
That makes 25 bets, and the 26th, should you wish it
is a six-fold. I know it’s a rather heady proposal, but
it does have a reasonable balance of singles, doubles
and trebles with the possibility of really big wins on
the accumulators.
Profit from 2 year olds on a run this new
flat season
Now for an idea from the past, and this is exactly
the right time of the season to consider it. Old-time
professionals were very keen on it and I don’t see
why it shouldn’t be equally successful today.
Following winning two year olds is the basis,
because it is believed they can run up a sequence of
wins. So, note any two year old after it has won two
races in succession. Then back it with two points to
win its third. If it loses, remove it from your list. If it
wins retain half the winnings and put the other half,
plus an extra point, on its next run to win a fourth
time. If it loses, then remove from further
consideration, but if it wins its fourth race then again
retain half the winnings and put the remaining half,
plus an extra point on its next run in an attempt to
win its fifth race, and your treble. Whatever happens
that is the end of your betting on that particular
sequence. There are a few two year olds who
manage five successive wins and with this method
you should have won on all of them.
If you wish to explore multiples a little more
deeply, then you’ll have to know your Round Robin
from your Rounder from your Roundabout. And the
Any To Come bets (ATCs) with Double Stakes
About (DSA) or Single Stakes About (SSA). You
must not confuse your Flag bet with your Union
Jack, because the latter is possibly the worst multiple
you’ll ever encounter and should be avoided at all
costs. I’m going to show it now, just to illustrate how
bad it is, and also with a bit of lateral thinking to
point towards the possibility of making it a lay bet.
The Union Jack has nine selections and they are laid
out in a grid as follows.
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
SYSTEMS AND
TIPSTERS UPDATE
www.bettertipster.co.uk
Those of you who read the Cheltenham preview
in a recent WRWM eletter will have been impressed
with this tipster’s performance. This is one of those
rare services that is wholly transparent and does not
hide itself behind dubious claims and spin.
The bet is eight trebles – the three horizontals
ABC, DEF and GHI. Then the three verticals ADG,
BEH and CFI. And finally, the two diagonals AEI
and CEG. What, you might ask, is so bad about it?
It’s hard to believe, but you could have six winners
among your nine selections, and still not have a
treble. Just imagine your six winners were A, B, D,
F, H and I. Look back to the grid and you’ll see that
no line has three winners, only two. In fact there are
another five combinations equally disastrous. So,
unpatriotic though it may appear, I’ll give the Union
Jack the thumbs down, unless of course as the
medium for a possible laying plan.
It deals predominantly with insider information
(see the article earlier in this issue).
Results are now available for inspection at
http://www.bettertipster.co.uk/results.html and are
fully verified as truthful and in line with what I
receive daily. The emails reproduced here are word
for word what I have received over the months.
12
WRWM_0410.qxd
21/4/10
16:25
Page 13
Updates on systems trialled in the
last newsletter
promise. I will report back in another month.
Bernard Hibbert’s Simply The Best
Quick On The Draw
A National Hunt specific betting system this one
running from November to April.
I am afraid that this is not a system worth
following, and the fact it has disappeared from the
Sportsworld Publishing website is proof enough that
it is stuttering.
I am afraid that despite the ease of the selection
methodology, basing a system on what may have
occurred in the past is not a way to profitability.
Why? Well there are three bets per race. A losing
race means a loss of three points. Winners therefore
need to be frequent enough and of such a price that
they amply compensate for the losing races. I gave
this system plenty of time but it just did not deliver.
This system, for me, has not profited during my
trial period. Past performance is no guarantee of
future profitability.
Tipsters and systems whose results are
online for your inspection
What can we learn from this? Well, this system
focused on the draw bias at Kempton.
www.winnerstolosers.com
Perhaps you can note a draw bias at a specific flat
venue over a specific distance? For me, meetings
such as Chester really have a marked draw bias
which actually impacts performance consistently.
Utilise this!
www.sportsworldpublishing.co.uk/Results
Dodgy.pdf
Provide results for the Dodgy Favourites lay
system that is being sold at Sportsworld Publishing.
I will be leaving these alone now.
If this interests you, there is a great free resource
at www.drawbias.com.
Add to these now www.bettertipster.co.uk
Easy Lay Method
Tipsters being monitored
You can check the results for yourself at
http://www.racing-index.com/tipsters/tipsterperformance.php (horses4courses) and
www.tippingleague.co.uk under Horses4courses tips.
One for me to shelve as it just does not go anywhere
using the staking plans which are advised at the
proofing sites.
www.winningselections.co.uk
Membership is currently closed and “results are
pending”. I think anything offered by Iain Lewington
should be ignored from hereon in.
www.bettolose.co.uk
This is a loss retrieval lay system with four horses
chosen in a betting cycle. Only one horse has to lose
for the cycle to be successful.
This is another service I will be leaving alone
from now on.
The 5-Year Consistency Plan
Another clear month must be accompanied by my
now monthly warning regarding loss retrieval. Long
winning runs will come, but one day’s losses can
wipe out a lot of the previous hard work.
Since I left you, in real terms, with February’s
pleasing results.
“A 3 point level stakes profit with six winners at
2/1, 11/4, 5/6, 15/8, 7/2, 8/11. Some unlucky 2nd
places too at 4/1, 9/1, 11/4, 7/2, 6/4.”
Bettolose though remain consistent enough that
you may want to take a chance with loss retrieval
while remembering you are a bad day away from
potentially blowing your bank!!
How has the 5-year consistency plan performed
to date?
www.flatlays.com
Well, we have had the following – winners at 4/6,
11/4, evens, a 3rd at 12/1 ( although each way is not
necessarily suggested) , winners at 15/8, 6/4, 5/2, a
2nd at 6/1, 3rd at 7/2 and three losers. So another
profit in the interim and a system with some
Will be left alone from now on.
New products
www.sportsworldpublishing.co.uk
please turn over
13
WRWM_0410.qxd
21/4/10
16:25
Page 14
Gamekeeper Turned Poacher
industry starting prices.
This is a traditional lay system with two
straightforward selection strategies, with its focus
being on selecting horses to oppose based primarily
on poor trainer and jockey performance, which is, I
suppose, a good foundation to work with.
Starting with a 1,000 point bank and aiming to
win 10 points profit per race, win or lose, using the
staking plan and stopping any sequence at four
consecutive losing bets and re-starting, a profit of
approximately 1,470 points was achieved.
The results are available for inspection at
www.sportsworldpublishing.co.uk and are split into
system 1 and system 2.
I will now detail the results attained by adopting
Betfair starting prices as a guide:
The total amount of fully qualifying races was 173
resulting in 116 winning dutches, a strike rate of
67.05%.
System 1’s lays are to a maximum of 6.5.
System 2’s lays are to a maximum of 10. Do take
note of this when inspecting the results.
Starting with a 1,000 point bank and aiming to
win 10 points profit per fully qualifying race, win or
lose, using the staking plan and stopping any
sequence at four consecutive losing bets and restarting, a profit of approximately 1,643 point was
achieved (allowing for a 5% commission deduction).
One to follow as the basis of the lay system is
sound and logical.
Dutching Diamond
Another system from
www.sportsworldpublishing.co.uk. With any
dutching betting system there is one thing we should
expect – an above average strike rate.
Since the system’s conception on 3/3/09 right up
to 15/4/10 (409 days), there have been a total of 848
fully qualifying races at industry starting prices.
From those, a total of 585 resulted in a winning
dutch, a strike rate of 68.98%.
Why? Well, we are backing multiple horses in a
single race.
Starting with a 1,000 point bank and aiming to
win 10 points per fully qualifying race, win or lose,
using the staking plan and stopping any sequence at
four consecutive losing races and re-starting, a total
of approximately 6,775 points has been achieved.
Here are the statistics for the system for 2010
so far:
1/1/10 to 15/4/10 = 105 DAYS
Now, before you get excited about the points
profit here, remember this “aiming to win 10 points
profit per fully qualifying race”.
“Since the 1st of January this year I have placed a
total of 240 possible qualifying races onto the
Dutching Diamond System telephone line/email
service (all verifiable). Of those 240, 175 resulted in
the dutch coming in, a strike rate of 72.91%.
Therefore, any profit will be divisible by 10.
This results in 147 points profit using industry SP
since year start.
For the purposes of proofing, I use the industry
starting prices as the best guide for the results. The
reason I do this is because not all people have access
to the Internet, but most can get to a high street
bookmaker if they so wished. The starting prices are
usually quite close to the prices available just before
the off time.
This system is only of use to those who can
follow the live betting market, and ideally should be
used with bespoke betting software which will place
the dutches for you.
Whilst on the theme of dutching, there is a
system very similar to Dutching Diamond being
offered at http://www.oddsontowin.co.uk.
By using industry starting prices after applying
the full system rules, a total of 147 races fully
qualified. From those 147, 93 resulted in the dutch
coming in, a strike rate of 63.26%. As you can see,
there is a big drop in the amount of selections using
This service is being offered by Peter Angel, and
is a betting system for dutching in specific races.
It is very similar in scope to the Dutching
14
WRWM_0410.qxd
21/4/10
16:25
Page 15
Diamond. This I see as purely coincidental and
down to a sharing of statistics.
certain race in the last 12 years.
However, that is just a starting point as it is vital
that the trainer has a good recent record in the race
and it can be shown that he is still targeting the race”
Results for odds-on to win have been very
impressive since it began earlier this year. This I put
down to stringent rules adopted by Peter Angel, which
if copied, should result in a replication of profit
achieved.
I tend to agree that there are occasions where
trainers target specific races year after year. An
obvious contender would be Enda Bolger in long
distance Cross Country races at Cheltenham and
Punchestown.
From the 5th January to 3rd March, 41 races
were selected of which 38 were successful. This
certainly augurs well. The author does update you
via email with tips for the time you are betting – eg
at present the flat sees a lot of 2-year-old maidens.
So judicious use of this knowledge can prove
profitable.
This service seeks to exploit these trainer stats
and has produced a 3.5 point profit since year start.
10/1 and 7/2 winners in two of the last three races
augurs well, but tells you that prior to that nice
winner, the service was loss making.
The author’s recent experiences.
“Recently, I had a run of 19 winning horseraces
brought to and end by my own recklessness. An
event all the more irritating as the second of the two
races I had bet on that day, produced the winner,
meaning my winning sequence would have
continued (and at the time of writing, stand at 22
consecutive wins).
One to follow
http://www.thegallopsreport.co.uk
A tipster service becoming a racing club with the
hope for a number of horses in running, for £99.99
per year, this looks to be a service of promise.
Why is this such a big deal? My odds-on to win
formula told me NOT to get involved with the first
race although all the signs indicated I should bet.
Convinced I was looking at a classical case of “the
exception that proves the rule” I went ahead and bet
only to see my selections beaten by a supposed 25/1
donkey. The only donkey was me.
The tipster part of the service has been profitable,
albeit it only started on 1st March 2010.
4.83 points profit for the month is going the
right way
£99.99 for one year also gets you info and 0.25%
of are horse in training CHESTER DEELYTE.
I have spent three years painstakingly
researching, creating, testing and profitably using
odds-on to win, so why on earth would I ignore my
own rules? I have no answer.
Another service in the black and consequently
worth following.
As we all know, picking the winner in a horserace
is far from easy. Whether selecting one horse or
“dutching” and selecting more than one, the same
question applies: “which do I select?”
www.jcaracing.co.uk
I don’t know what to make of this service –
the website has disappeared sharpish and this seems
to be another failing loss retrieval backing service.
It did bear similarities in layout to the infamous five
star tipster.
I like this as the author will personally respond
to questions.
Again, I must reiterate that the ideal with
dutching is to be able to follow the racing live, but
this is not an absolute necessity.
Bottom Line: Avoid ALL loss retrieval betting
systems unless you want to take on the risk of losing
a huge amount of money when winners are not
delivered – see the warning for www.bettolose.co.uk.
http://www.trainertarget.com
I was proofing this service, then everything halted.
A service run by Mark Foley whose purpose is to
“exploit(s) these trainer habits by looking for
trainers who have won at least three renewals of a
This service seems to be affiliated with
www.goldlay.co.uk and this site has disappeared
please turn over
15
WRWM_0410.qxd
21/4/10
16:25
Page 16
From The Publisher…
too. Remember the names, Colin Andrew and
Aiden Collins.
Could This be the BestKept Wealth-Building
Secret in Britain?
How can we insure ourselves against these fly by
nights like the above two and
winningselections.co.uk who stopped without
warning?
Discover how to “roll” a one-off sum of £1,200
into £9,155 in 12 months... £30,678 in 24 months...
£48,145 in 3 years... £69,345 in 4 years and
£89,298 in just 5 years.
Well, simply do not join any loss retrieval
services. Do your due diligence too.
This is becoming all too familiar a pattern.
www.ajtips.co.uk
As you read this, a small number of wealthbuilders are using the hush-hush “Pegasus Rollover
Plan” to make an effortless and always-growing
second income...
An air of respectability about this service? The
service seems to be run by a real person – Andrew
Jackson!
New member David Smith wrote to say his
“Pegasus Rollover Pot” jumped from £1,500 to
£3,100 in a single month.
I’ll let him describe this new service.
“We choose between one to four sports selections
every day from any sport. The majority of the
selections tend to be between 4/7 and Evens. We
only recommend level stake betting – we do not
recommend any form of progressive staking.
Mr J.C from Hull says he “was sceptical at first,
but I quickly realised the potential of this amazing
system.” He started making a tidy £20 a day for the
first two weeks... now his Pegasus Rollover Plan
generates £100 a day.
Every morning I send an email out to members
listing my selections for the day. The aim is to
make 20 Profit Points a Month (40%). This works
out as we encourage members to have a 50 Point
betting bank.”
And Chris Roberts has bought a 25ft cabin
cruiser thanks to Pegasus. His only problem is that
the only requirement of Pegasus is an Internet
connection, and because he spends so much time on
his new boat that makes things difficult!
You are updated daily with results from the day
before or previous bets (in long running tournaments
such as snooker, etc).
“Portable laptops and phone services aren’t really
an option,” he wrote recently, “So I am at a loss
what to do!”
Twenty-six points profit in January and February,
a 71/2 point loss in March and 6 point profit for
April to date, results are real (a miracle!!) and
available to view at the website. This looks to be a
good service for the future, and covers more sports
rather than just horse racing. I would personally
suggest that you will secure a better strike rate if you
focus on all sports and pick your opportunities from
these rather than simply from horse racing and the
attendant difficulties of securing a good price and
strike rate in the sport of kings.
So what’s this all about?
If this is such a powerful way to make money,
why haven’t you heard of it?
Why do your profits escape any tax from the
Treasury?
And how can you kick off your own Pegasus
Rollover Plan – starting this very day?
Everything is revealed in a very urgent report
contained within your issue.
I would hold on another month with this service.
I want to speak more with Andrew Jackson (given
what has happened with goldlays, jcaracing and
winningselections).
Sincerely,
Nick Laight
Pegasus Racing Club
I have a better feeling about this service though.
16