Stocks Approaching Secular Highs vs. Bonds
Transcription
Stocks Approaching Secular Highs vs. Bonds
Weekly Technical Themes – Stocks Approaching Secular Highs vs. Bonds Finding more actionable technical longs than shorts MACRO – Stocks vs Bonds continue to improve and challenge secular highs – Continue to overweight stocks. • Stocks versus Bonds – Challenging their long‐term (2014, 2007 and 2000) relative highs. • S&P 500 – Reverses from initial support at the May lows with potential to ‘break‐out’ to all‐time highs still in place. June 11, 2015 RBC Capital Markets, LLC Robert Sluymer, CFA (Analyst) (212) 858‐7066 [email protected] All values in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. Priced as of market close June 11, 2015 (unless otherwise stated). • Small‐cap Index – Price pattern remains bullish and poised to break to new 2015 highs with improving relative performance. • RBC Economic Scorecard – Continues to rebound and is supportive of a Cyclical rebound/improvement. • International Markets – EAFE continues to ‘pause/consolidate’ under trend line resistance while EM remains weak/range bound within a relative downtrend. • Other Macro – Rates: US 10’s reverse 2014‐2015 downtrend, Euro‐Oil: Range bound, Gold: Bullion lags HUI – See pages 15‐22. • In‐Depth US Equity Relative Performance Review – Sectors, Industry groups and S&P 500 & 400 assessed – See pages 23‐36. SECTORS & IDEAS – Cyclicals improving while Bond Proxies weaken and secular Growth remains mixed – See pages 37‐71. • In Wednesday’s It’s All Relative, we noted how we are finding more attractive technical ideas on the long side than short side given the recent decline in many groups. Today’s note features positive technical patterns with most (not all) ranked outperform by RBC’s fundamental analysts. • Financials – Banks and Brokers accelerating from 12+ trading ranges – Use pending near‐term pullbacks to add exposure: ETFC, SCHW, SIVB, EWBC, KEY, CMA, C, AIG • Industrials – Selectively improving and tracking RBC Economic Scorecard higher: FDX, EXPD, IEX, RHI, MAS, JBHT • Healthcare, Discretionary and Technology leaders – Buy ideas after 2015 pullbacks/consolidations: GILD, BIIB, CELG, HSIC, STJ, ZTS, DG, NWL, MHK, DLPH, JCI, MA, ADS, ADBE, CRM, NFLX, FB • Global Cyclicals – USD/Euro/Oil debate continues – This theme remains range bound with short‐term lows developing: LYB, PPG. • Bond Proxies – REITs, Utilities and select Staples – Weakness continues – Use pending short‐term rebounds to reduce exposure. For Required Conflicts Disclosures, please see page 72. Stocks are testing 2007 high vs. US Long Bonds (15-25 year duration) and nearing the 2000 highs S&P 500 vs. US Long-bond (US1 Comdty) Challenging the 2014 and 2007 highs with the 2000 relative highs close by Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 2 RBC Capital Markets S&P 500 – Bouncing from uptrend near ~2070 – Stocks nearing all time highs vs Bonds (TLT) Early signs of a rebound from near long-term up trend support and the May 2015 lows Weekly momentum is neutral Stocks vs Bonds (TLT) challenging 2014 and 2017 relative highs S&P 500 versus TLT Long-bond ETF Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 3 RBC Capital Markets S&P 500 – Rallying from initial support at the May lows with Short-term momentum bottoming Stocks vs. Bonds – Relative uptrend accelerates to new 2015 relative highs 2200 2135 ~2040 1980 Bouncing from first support at the May lows ~2070 Daily momentum rebounding from 2015 lows S&P 500 vs. TLT (Bond ETF) Relative uptrend intact and making NEW 2015 highs Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 4 RBC Capital Markets Russell 2000 Long-term – Long-term uptrend intact – Key level = October relative performance lows! Key uptrend intact Momentum beginning to build from above the ‘zero’ line Relative performance vs. S&P 500 Holding above key ’line in the sand’. A break below would be a longer-term negative signal for the equity cycle “So far so good” Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 5 RBC Capital Markets Russell 2000 – Consolidating above ~1210-1220 support and now challenging 2015 highs! Resistance: 1261-1278 2014 highs key support 1212-1220 1211-1220 remains key support Daily momentum is neutral Small-cap recovery continues despite real price weakness. The May 1, 2015 lows are now key support Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 6 RBC Capital Markets Style and Sentiment Growth vs. Value – Leadership intact with signs of near-term stabilization Weekly data from 2011 Daily data from mid‐2014 LARGE‐CAP GROWTH vs. VALUE Uptrend intact, signs of emerging short‐term MID‐CAP GROWTH vs. VALUE Pausing SMALL‐CAP GROWTH vs. VALUE Uptrend intact Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 8 RBC Capital Markets Sentiment & RBC Economic Scorecard oversold and showing evidence of starting to rebound Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 9 RBC Capital Markets International Equity Markets EAFE – Stalled under resistance near 67 with longer-term relative performance downtrend intact Rebound testing key ~67 level Counter-trend recovery underway Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 11 RBC Capital Markets DAX – Pullback/consolidation below upper end of long-term trend channel Pullback nearing 200dma Weekly momentum continues to decline DAX vs. ACWI ($US) relative performance stalling near key level Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 12 RBC Capital Markets European indexes bounce from next trading support DAX ITALY FTSE 100 SPAIN Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 13 RBC Capital Markets Emerging Markets – Absolute price stalling under longer-term uptrend – Relative downtrend intact Retesting longterm uptrend 46 36 Relative counter trend rally stalling near key resistance Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 14 RBC Capital Markets Bonds, FX and Commodities US Dollar Index – Consolidation under 99-100 resistance continues 2015 highs 100.39 99.49 96.94 2005 highs 92.63 89.62 88.70 Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 16 RBC Capital Markets FX – EUR, GBP, JPY & CAD – Oversold consolidations/rebounds continue Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 17 RBC Capital Markets WTI Oil – Oversold rebound stalling/consolidating under 2010 lows - $64.24 remains resistance $74.95 $64.24 Stalling near resistance $43.58 $32.40 Oversold rebound beginning to stall Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 18 RBC Capital Markets Brent Oil – Oversold rebound continues to pause/consolidate under key resistance near ~$68 $67.87 $64.08 $59.49 $54.31 $47.26 $39.35 $36.20 Oversold rebound beginning to stall Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 19 RBC Capital Markets Energy Short-term – Pullbacks testing next support near 50-dma’s Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 20 RBC Capital Markets Precious Metals – Both Gold and Silver continue to consolidate under long-term resistance/uptrends Silver retesting long-term uptrend break & prior 2013 lows Gold retesting long-term uptrend break Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 21 RBC Capital Markets Gold – Consolidation under resistance continues – HUI vs Bullion remains weak Stalling into resistance ~$1230 $1132 HUI vs Bullion failed into key resistance Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 22 RBC Capital Markets US Sectors US – Intermediate-term/Weekly Relative Sector Rotation STAPLES ENERGY FINANCIALS HEALTHCARE INDUSTRIALS TECHNOLOGY MATERIALS TELCOS UTILITIES 06/12/2015 06/05/2015 05/29/2015 05/22/2015 05/15/2015 05/08/2015 05/01/2015 04/24/2015 04/17/2015 04/10/2015 04/03/2015 03/27/2015 03/20/2015 03/13/2015 03/06/2015 02/27/2015 02/20/2015 02/13/2015 02/06/2015 01/30/2015 01/23/2015 01/16/2015 01/09/2015 01/02/2015 12/26/2014 12/19/2014 12/12/2014 12/05/2014 11/28/2014 11/21/2014 DISCRETIONARY PERCENTAGE OF STOCKS WITHIN EACH S&P 500 SECTOR WITH RISING WEEKLY RELATIVE PERFORMANCE TRENDS 32% 33% 28% 29% 33% 46% 59% 62% 73% 74% 73% 69% 66% 66% 66% 65% 62% 62% 58% 60% 61% 62% 67% 68% 67% 65% 60% 58% 53% 47% 35% 41% 41% 38% 43% 41% 41% 46% 46% 46% 43% 41% 43% 43% 43% 49% 57% 73% 70% 70% 73% 73% 70% 65% 65% 68% 70% 68% 68% 70% 46% 51% 68% 73% 88% 85% 80% 66% 59% 46% 39% 29% 32% 41% 46% 44% 37% 22% 12% 10% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 7% 10% 10% 7% 5% 50% 47% 42% 37% 31% 30% 40% 43% 51% 55% 58% 51% 50% 41% 41% 45% 45% 42% 42% 44% 51% 53% 66% 71% 62% 60% 60% 60% 55% 57% 55% 53% 47% 49% 56% 64% 69% 76% 73% 69% 73% 73% 65% 56% 51% 58% 64% 71% 82% 82% 82% 84% 84% 84% 80% 76% 76% 73% 73% 73% 51% 52% 46% 45% 40% 37% 37% 38% 46% 46% 43% 45% 52% 57% 55% 49% 54% 48% 45% 48% 51% 54% 57% 62% 58% 58% 55% 55% 57% 54% 52% 54% 52% 40% 39% 43% 45% 46% 51% 58% 60% 61% 63% 63% 61% 58% 57% 51% 48% 58% 63% 72% 78% 79% 79% 75% 79% 78% 64% 54% 52% 45% 48% 45% 48% 45% 41% 34% 34% 38% 41% 52% 59% 69% 69% 76% 69% 66% 55% 55% 52% 48% 48% 45% 38% 45% 38% 45% 45% 38% 40% 40% 60% 60% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 60% 60% 60% 60% 80% 80% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 20% 20% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 21% 18% 18% 18% 18% 11% 7% 7% 7% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 14% 64% 86% 89% 89% 86% 86% 79% 79% 75% 75% 68% 79% 89% 89% Intermediate-term/weekly Key points: • Discretionary showing early signs of firming/improving • Staples pullback continues • Energy stalling • Financials recovery continues • Healthcare showing early signs of firming/improving • Industrials: Further signs of improving • Technology: Recovery continues • Materials range bound • Utilities – Weak recovery is already showing signs of failing. • See next page for a shorter-term perspective and inflection points Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 24 RBC Capital Markets US – Short-term/Daily Relative Sector Rotation STAPLES ENERGY FINANCIALS HEALTHCARE INDUSTRIALS TECHNOLOGY MATERIALS TELCOS UTILITIES 06/10/2015 06/09/2015 06/08/2015 06/05/2015 06/04/2015 06/03/2015 06/02/2015 06/01/2015 05/29/2015 05/28/2015 05/27/2015 05/26/2015 05/22/2015 05/21/2015 05/20/2015 05/19/2015 05/18/2015 05/15/2015 05/14/2015 05/13/2015 05/12/2015 05/11/2015 05/08/2015 05/07/2015 05/06/2015 05/05/2015 05/04/2015 05/01/2015 04/30/2015 DISCRETIONARY PERCENTAGE OF STOCKS WITHIN EACH S&P 500 SECTOR WITH RISING DAILY RELATIVE PERFORMANCE TRENDS 65% 67% 66% 62% 56% 52% 42% 41% 44% 46% 47% 48% 46% 47% 49% 42% 36% 38% 36% 48% 46% 33% 32% 38% 31% 33% 31% 31% 29% 19% 16% 14% 16% 22% 27% 35% 41% 49% 46% 49% 49% 54% 73% 81% 78% 78% 73% 65% 57% 62% 54% 41% 41% 35% 27% 22% 22% 19% 39% 32% 32% 20% 22% 10% 7% 7% 10% 17% 12% 7% 12% 17% 15% 15% 22% 27% 34% 27% 37% 44% 46% 51% 61% 63% 68% 68% 63% 59% 58% 57% 50% 43% 40% 38% 40% 45% 47% 43% 47% 48% 50% 55% 55% 53% 56% 57% 59% 64% 65% 62% 57% 55% 49% 42% 34% 29% 56% 56% 65% 71% 69% 69% 75% 78% 78% 75% 78% 78% 78% 73% 71% 71% 58% 60% 51% 45% 36% 31% 25% 20% 24% 24% 18% 15% 15% 51% 52% 48% 38% 29% 31% 31% 34% 34% 43% 49% 49% 58% 57% 57% 60% 66% 66% 63% 60% 57% 52% 49% 46% 43% 43% 48% 46% 45% 49% 49% 55% 55% 58% 60% 57% 54% 54% 54% 55% 55% 54% 54% 61% 60% 57% 55% 54% 49% 48% 48% 46% 52% 54% 55% 60% 51% 49% 48% 45% 34% 38% 41% 41% 45% 48% 45% 28% 31% 41% 55% 55% 59% 55% 48% 55% 55% 72% 76% 76% 76% 79% 69% 69% 69% 66% 55% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 0% 0% 20% 20% 20% 40% 40% 60% 60% 80% 80% 80% 80% 3% 3% 3% 3% 20% 47% 77% 83% 77% 73% 73% 70% 60% 57% 37% 10% 10% 13% 10% 13% 10% 13% 20% 20% 30% 43% 50% 50% 63% Short-term/Daily Key points: • Discretionary improving • Staples correction continues • Energy beginning to firm • Financials recovery continues • Healthcare decelerating • Industrials improving • Technology pausing • Material recovering • Utilities remain weak Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 25 RBC Capital Markets S&P 500 Sector Relative Performance vs. S&P500 Weekly data from 2011 Daily data from mid‐2014 FINANCIALS Near‐term improvement from lower end of range continues led by Banks UTILITIES Relative weakness continues – New lows TELCOs Downtrend intact STAPLES Downtrend intact HEALTHCARE 12+ month uptrend intact. Near‐term pullback underway Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 26 RBC Capital Markets S&P 500 Sector Relative Performance vs. S&P500 Weekly data from 2011 Daily data from mid‐2014 DISCRETIONARY Firming/rallying from Q4/Q1 uptrend TECHNOLOGY Uptrend intact INDUSTRIALS Downtrend intact with short‐term lows attempting top developi at the 2014 lows MATERIALS Rebounding from test of 2014 relative lows ENERGY Correction from resistance continues, nearing short‐term lows Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 27 RBC Capital Markets Relative Performance Summaries S&P 1500 Groups vs. S&P 500 S&P 900 Stocks vs. S&P Sector S&P 1500 GROUPS WEEKLY RELATIVE PERFORMANCE VS S&P 500 EARLY OUTPERFORMANCE ESTABLISHED OUTPERFORMANCE MARKET PERFORMANCE EARLY UNDERPERFORMANCE ESTABLISHED UNDERPERFORMANCE 0 FINANCIALS ASSET MANAGERS CONSUMER FINANCE Banks and Brokers building relative leadership Add on pending pulllbacks DIVERSIFIED BANKS INVESTMENT BANKS & BROKER REGIONAL BANKS THRIFTS & MORTGAGE INSURANCE BROKERS LIFE & HEALTH INSURANCE MULTILINE INSURANCE REINSURANCE \ DEVELOPMENT REITS Bond Proxies - REITs and Utilities remain in corrective trends Short-term rebound pending HOTEL & RESORT REITS DIV. FINANCIAL SERVICES DIVERSIFIED REITS * HEALTHCARE REITS INDUSTRIAL REITS MORTGAGE REITS OFFICE REITS RESIDENTIAL REITS RETAIL REITS SPECIALIZED REITS P&C INSURANCE UTILITIES IND. POWER PRODUCERS \ GAS UTILITIES WATER UTILITIES ELECTRIC UTILITIES MULTI‐UTILITIES TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES WIRELESS TELCOS ALTERNATIVE CARRIERS INTEGRATED TELCOS * FOOD PRODUCTS * PERSONAL PRODUCTS BEVERAGES FOOD & STAPLES RETAILING * HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS * TOBACCO CONSUMER STAPLES HEALTH CARE > LIFE SCIENCES TOOLS HEALTHCARE SUPPLIES PHARMACEUTICALS > BIOTECHNOLOGY HEALTHCARE DISTRIBUTORS HEALTHCARE FACILITIES MANAGED HEALTHCARE CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY > AUTOMOTIVE RETAIL SPECIALIZED CONS SERVICES DISTRIBUTORS HOUSEWARES & SPECIALTIES Auto Parts accelerating Long-term uptrend intact for Healthcare CABLE & SATELLITE AUTO COMPONENTS INTERNET & CATALOG RESTAURANTS > SPECIALTY STORES FOOTWEAR HOME FURNISHINGS * LEISURE FACILITIES LEISURE PRODUCTS \ ‐ BROADCASTING \ ‐ HOTELS & CRUISE LINES INDUSTRIALS > CONS. MACHINERY‐TRUCKS DIVERSIFIED SUPPORT > HR & EMPLOYMENT AIR FREIGHT & LOGISTICS > INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY ENERGY > OIL & GAS DRILLING GENERAL MERCHANDISE \ MOVIES & ENTERTAINMENT * EDUCATION SERVICES HOMEFURNISHING RETAIL * AUTOMOBILES PUBLISHING ADVERTISING APPAREL RETAIL APPAREL & LUXURY CASINOS & GAMING ELECTRONICS RETAIL CONSUMER ELECTRONICS * DEPARTMENT STORES * HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES HOMEBUILDING HOME IMPROVEMENT DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS SOFTWARE APPLICATION SOFTWARE IT CONSULTING & SERVICES \ ‐ INTERNET SOFTWARE & SERV. \ COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT \ TECHNOLOGY DISTRIBUTORS ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS \ ELECTRONIC MANUFACTURING SEMI EQUIPMENT > AGRICULTURAL MACHINERY RESEARCH & CONSULTING ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT BUILDING PRODUCTS CONSTRUCTION & ENGINEERIN INDUSTRIAL CONGLOMERATES TRADING & DISTRIBUTION MARINE COMMERCIAL PRINTING * ENVIRONMENTAL & FACILITIES * SECURITY & ALARM RAILROADS * TRUCKING AEROSPACE & DEFENSE AIRLINES * OFFICE SERVICES & SUPPLIES COMMODITY CHEMICALS * CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS \ ‐ PRECIOUS METALS Air Freight and select Machinery improving MATERIALS > SPECIALTY CHEMICALS STEEL FOREST PRODUCTS > PAPER PACKAGING HEALTHCARE SERVICES * HEALTHCARE EQUIPMENT Retail weak with oversold trading rebounds developing Processors, Software, select Semis and IT continue to lead Technology INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY > HARDWARE & STORAGE ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT SEMICONDUCTORS \ HEALTHCARE TECHNOLOGY Transports remain under pressure but are becoming oversold \ GOLD ALUMINUM DIVERSIFIED CHEMICALS * FERTILIZERS & AG * INDUSTRIAL GASES * METAL & GLASS CONTAINERS * DIV. METALS & MINING PAPER PRODUCTS REFINING & MARKETING COAL & CONSUMABLES STORAGE & TRANSPORTATION * INTEGRATED OIL & GAS * EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION Chemicals improving OIL EQUIPMENT & SERVICES Energy pullback from 200-dmas now testing first support at 50-dma 29 RBC Capital Markets S&P 500 & 400 LONG-TERM RELATIVE TREND VS S&P SECTOR EARLY OUTPERFORMANCE ESTABLISHED OUTPERFORMANCE MARKET PERFORMANCE EARLY UNDERPERFORMANCE ESTABLISHED UNDERPERFORMANCE 0 FINANCIALS BANKS > ASSOCIATED BANC‐CORP BANK OF THE OZARKS > FIRST NIAGARA FINANCIAL GR * CULLEN/FROST BANKERS INC BANCORPSOUTH INC CATHAY GENERAL BANCORP > PACWEST BANCORP * FIFTH THIRD BANCORP > BANK OF AMERICA CORP EAST WEST BANCORP INC BANK OF HAWAII CORP FIRST HORIZON NATIONAL CO > BB&T CORP HUNTINGTON BANCSHARES INC CITIGROUP INC PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GR > COMERICA INC > SIGNATURE BANK > COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC SVB FINANCIAL GROUP FIRSTMERIT CORP SYNOVUS FINANCIAL CORP FULTON FINANCIAL CORP WEBSTER FINANCIAL CORP > INTERNATIONAL BANCSHARES C WELLS FARGO & CO JPMORGAN CHASE & CO * HANCOCK HOLDING CO Banks and Brokers and continue to show evidence of improving * M & T BANK CORP * PROSPERITY BANCSHARES INC * US BANCORP * VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP Expect near-term pullbacks Add on pending weakness to increase exposure KEYCORP > PEOPLE'S UNITED FINANCIAL > REGIONS FINANCIAL CORP SUNTRUST BANKS INC > TCF FINANCIAL CORP > TRUSTMARK CORP > UMPQUA HOLDINGS CORP > ZIONS BANCORPORATION CAPITAL MARKETS GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON C AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC \ EATON VANCE CORP RAYMOND JAMES FINANCIAL I E*TRADE FINANCIAL CORP \ AFFILIATED MANAGERS GROUP \ BLACKROCK INC FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC STATE STREET CORP FEDERATED INVESTORS INC‐C \ INVESCO LTD T ROWE PRICE GROUP INC > STIFEL FINANCIAL CORP * JANUS CAPITAL GROUP INC LEGG MASON INC WADDELL & REED FINANCIAL‐ MORGAN STANLEY NORTHERN TRUST CORP Active Asset Managers weakening SCHWAB (CHARLES) CORP SEI INVESTMENTS COMPANY CONSUMER FINANCE > CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORP NAVIENT CORP AMERICAN EXPRESS CO SLM CORP DISCOVER FINANCIAL SERVIC DIVERSIFIED FINANCIAL SERVIC INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE CME GROUP INC BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC‐CL MCGRAW HILL FINANCIAL INC CBOE HOLDINGS INC LEUCADIA NATIONAL CORP MOODY'S CORP * MSCI INC * NASDAQ OMX GROUP/THE INSURANCE ‐ ALLEGHANY CORP AON PLC AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP ALLSTATE CORP ACE LTD AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GR * FIRST AMERICAN FINANCIAL PROGRESSIVE CORP \ ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS L AFLAC INC > CNO FINANCIAL GROUP INC * HANOVER INSURANCE GROUP IN \ MERCURY GENERAL CORP ARTHUR J GALLAGHER & CO EVEREST RE GROUP LTD * HARTFORD FINANCIAL SVCS GR TRAVELERS COS INC/THE * ASSURANT INC > METLIFE INC HCC INSURANCE HOLDINGS IN WR BERKLEY CORP * BROWN & BROWN INC > PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL INC > LINCOLN NATIONAL CORP STANCORP FINANCIAL GROUP * MARSH & MCLENNAN COS TORCHMARK CORP REINSURANCE GROUP OF AMER > UNUM GROUP XL GROUP PLC \ CHUBB CORP CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORP P&C weakness continues while Life Co's improving with Banks GENWORTH FINANCIAL INC‐CL \ KEMPER CORP LOEWS CORP OLD REPUBLIC INTL CORP PRIMERICA INC * PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP RENAISSANCERE HOLDINGS LT 30 RBC Capital Markets S&P 500 & 400 LONG-TERM RELATIVE TREND VS S&P SECTOR EARLY OUTPERFORMANCE ESTABLISHED OUTPERFORMANCE MARKET PERFORMANCE EARLY UNDERPERFORMANCE ESTABLISHED UNDERPERFORMANCE 0 REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST LAMAR ADVERTISING CO‐A * EXTRA SPACE STORAGE INC * HOME PROPERTIES INC * MACERICH CO/THE COMMUNICATIONS SALES & LE URBAN EDGE PROPERTIES WP GLIMCHER INC REIT's continue to underperform Use pending near-term bounces to reduce exposure \ ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE EQU AMERICAN TOWER CORP \ APARTMENT INVT & MGMT CO ‐ \ AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC \ BOSTON PROPERTIES INC DUKE REALTY CORP \ EQUITY RESIDENTIAL \ ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST INC FEDERAL REALTY INVS TRUST \ GENERAL GROWTH PROPERTIES \ HEALTH CARE REIT INC \ IRON MOUNTAIN INC KILROY REALTY CORP LASALLE HOTEL PROPERTIES \ MID‐AMERICA APARTMENT COMM \ PUBLIC STORAGE \ REGENCY CENTERS CORP SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC SL GREEN REALTY CORP \ UDR INC \ AMERICAN CAMPUS COMMUNITIE BIOMED REALTY TRUST INC \ CAMDEN PROPERTY TRUST CORPORATE OFFICE PROPERTI \ CORRECTIONS CORP OF AMERIC \ CROWN CASTLE INTL CORP \ DOUGLAS EMMETT INC \ EQUITY ONE INC HCP INC HIGHWOODS PROPERTIES INC \ HOSPITALITY PROPERTIES TRU HOST HOTELS & RESORTS INC KIMCO REALTY CORP LIBERTY PROPERTY TRUST MACK‐CALI REALTY CORP \ NATIONAL RETAIL PROPERTIES OMEGA HEALTHCARE INVESTOR PLUM CREEK TIMBER CO POTLATCH CORP PROLOGIS INC RAYONIER INC \ REALTY INCOME CORP SENIOR HOUSING PROP TRUST TANGER FACTORY OUTLET CEN \ TAUBMAN CENTERS INC \ VENTAS INC \ VORNADO REALTY TRUST \ WEINGARTEN REALTY INVESTOR WEYERHAEUSER CO REAL ESTATE MANAGEMENT & DEV * CBRE GROUP INC ‐ A * JONES LANG LASALLE INC ALEXANDER & BALDWIN INC THRIFTS & MORTGAGE FINANCE NEW YORK COMMUNITY BANCOR > WASHINGTON FEDERAL INC * HUDSON CITY BANCORP INC UTILITIES ELECTRIC UTILITIES FIRSTENERGY CORP GAS UTILITIES ATMOS ENERGY CORP * AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER * HAWAIIAN ELECTRIC INDS NEXTERA ENERGY INC > PEPCO HOLDINGS INC * XCEL ENERGY INC > CLECO CORPORATION > EXELON CORP PINNACLE WEST CAPITAL > UGI CORP WGL HOLDINGS INC ONE GAS INC INDEPENDENT POWER AND RENEWA \ EDISON INTERNATIONAL ENTERGY CORP \ EVERSOURCE ENERGY IDACORP INC \ PPL CORP Electric and Multi-Utilities weakening vs the sector = TALEN ENERGY CORP \ DUKE ENERGY CORP GREAT PLAINS ENERGY INC OGE ENERGY CORP PNM RESOURCES INC * SOUTHERN CO/THE WESTAR ENERGY INC AGL RESOURCES INC * NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO QUESTAR CORP * AES CORP * NRG ENERGY INC MULTI‐UTILITIES * CMS ENERGY CORP * INTEGRYS ENERGY GROUP INC NISOURCE INC * P G & E CORP PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE SEMPRA ENERGY \ CONSOLIDATED EDISON INC TECO ENERGY INC \ ALLIANT ENERGY CORP DTE ENERGY COMPANY VECTREN CORP WISCONSIN ENERGY CORP AMEREN CORPORATION BLACK HILLS CORP CENTERPOINT ENERGY INC DOMINION RESOURCES INC/VA MDU RESOURCES GROUP INC \ SCANA CORP \ VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC CENTURYLINK INC \ FRONTIER COMMUNICATIONS CO WATER UTILITIES AQUA AMERICA INC TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES DIVERSIFIED TELECOMMUNICATIO > AT&T INC LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS IN WIRELESS TELECOMMUNICATION S TELEPHONE AND DATA SYSTEM 31 RBC Capital Markets S&P 500 & 400 LONG-TERM RELATIVE TREND VS S&P SECTOR EARLY OUTPERFORMANCE ESTABLISHED OUTPERFORMANCE MARKET PERFORMANCE EARLY UNDERPERFORMANCE ESTABLISHED UNDERPERFORMANCE 0 CONSUMER STAPLES BEVERAGES CONSTELLATION BRANDS INC‐ * DR PEPPER SNAPPLE GROUP IN * MONSTER BEVERAGE CORP \ ‐ BOSTON BEER COMPANY INC‐A > BROWN‐FORMAN CORP‐CLASS B PEPSICO INC MOLSON COORS BREWING CO ‐ COCA‐COLA CO/THE COCA‐COLA ENTERPRISES * COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP CVS HEALTH CORP * KROGER CO WALGREENS BOOTS ALLIANCE Staples generally weakening with bond proxies SUPERVALU INC * SYSCO CORP UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC WAL‐MART STORES INC WHOLE FOODS MARKET INC FOOD & STAPLES RETAILING FOOD PRODUCTS ARCHER‐DANIELS‐MIDLAND CO CAMPBELL SOUP CO CONAGRA FOODS INC DEAN FOODS CO FLOWERS FOODS INC GENERAL MILLS INC > INGREDION INC JM SMUCKER CO/THE MCCORMICK & CO‐NON VTG SH MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL IN TOOTSIE ROLL INDS TYSON FOODS INC‐CL A HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS HAIN CELESTIAL GROUP INC HORMEL FOODS CORP KRAFT FOODS GROUP INC WHITEWAVE FOODS CO HERSHEY CO/THE KELLOGG CO KEURIG GREEN MOUNTAIN INC LANCASTER COLONY CORP \ MEAD JOHNSON NUTRITION CO * POST HOLDINGS INC \ TREEHOUSE FOODS INC Food Products notably mixed CHURCH & DWIGHT CO INC * CLOROX COMPANY * ENERGIZER HOLDINGS INC * COLGATE‐PALMOLIVE CO KIMBERLY‐CLARK CORP PROCTER & GAMBLE CO/THE PERSONAL PRODUCTS > ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES‐CL AVON PRODUCTS INC TOBACCO Biotech pull back nearing first support level * ALTRIA GROUP INC LORILLARD INC REYNOLDS AMERICAN INC * PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONA HEALTH CARE BIOTECHNOLOGY GILEAD SCIENCES INC HEALTH CARE EQUIPMENT & SUPP > ALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC HILL‐ROM HOLDINGS INC SIRONA DENTAL SYSTEMS INC TELEFLEX INC THORATEC CORP REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS UNITED THERAPEUTICS CORP * VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INC BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORP * EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORP HOLOGIC INC \ ‐ COOPER COS INC/THE HALYARD HEALTH INC \ BIOGEN INC \ CELGENE CORP ALEXION PHARMACEUTICALS I \ AMGEN INC CR BARD INC \ MEDTRONIC PLC RESMED INC STERIS CORP * ABBOTT LABORATORIES BAXTER INTERNATIONAL INC \ BECTON DICKINSON AND CO * DENTSPLY INTERNATIONAL INC \ IDEXX LABORATORIES INC INTUITIVE SURGICAL INC * ST JUDE MEDICAL INC STRYKER CORP VARIAN MEDICAL SYSTEMS IN ZIMMER HOLDINGS INC \ COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS I \ LABORATORY CRP OF AMER HLD \ LIFEPOINT HEALTH INC DAVITA HEALTHCARE PARTNER * HENRY SCHEIN INC \ MEDNAX INC OWENS & MINOR INC PATTERSON COS INC * TENET HEALTHCARE CORP Equipment & Supplies underperforming the sector HEALTH CARE PROVIDERS & SERV Hospitals and HMO's have accelerated but are pausing / consoliating AETNA INC * AMERISOURCEBERGEN CORP ANTHEM INC CENTENE CORP CIGNA CORP HCA HOLDINGS INC HEALTH NET INC HUMANA INC MCKESSON CORP OMNICARE INC * UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC UNIVERSAL HEALTH SERVICES * VCA INC > CARDINAL HEALTH INC > EXPRESS SCRIPTS HOLDING CO \ ‐ QUEST DIAGNOSTICS INC WELLCARE HEALTH PLANS INC HEALTH CARE TECHNOLOGY * ALLSCRIPTS HEALTHCARE SOLU \ CERNER CORP * HMS HOLDINGS CORP LIFE SCIENCES TOOLS & SERVIC BIO‐RAD LABORATORIES‐A > CHARLES RIVER LABORATORIES PERKINELMER INC WATERS CORP PHARMACEUTICALS > ABBVIE INC BRISTOL‐MYERS SQUIBB CO PERRIGO CO PLC 32 > METTLER‐TOLEDO INTERNATION ACTAVIS PLC * AKORN INC > ELI LILLY & CO HOSPIRA INC * MALLINCKRODT PLC MYLAN NV ZOETIS INC AGILENT TECHNOLOGIES INC BIO‐TECHNE CORP THERMO FISHER SCIENTIFIC \ ENDO INTERNATIONAL PLC JOHNSON & JOHNSON MERCK & CO. INC. PFIZER INC RBC Capital Markets S&P 500 & 400 LONG-TERM RELATIVE TREND VS S&P SECTOR EARLY OUTPERFORMANCE ESTABLISHED OUTPERFORMANCE MARKET PERFORMANCE EARLY UNDERPERFORMANCE ESTABLISHED UNDERPERFORMANCE 0 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY AUTO COMPONENTS > GOODYEAR TIRE & RUBBER CO > JOHNSON CONTROLS INC DELPHI AUTOMOTIVE PLC Auto Parts accelerating AUTOMOBILES Auto Mfg remains weak, early signs of becoming oversold DISTRIBUTORS * BORGWARNER INC * DANA HOLDING CORP * GENTEX CORP FORD MOTOR CO GENERAL MOTORS CO HARLEY‐DAVIDSON INC \ THOR INDUSTRIES INC GENUINE PARTS CO * LKQ CORP DIVERSIFIED CONSUMER SERVICE > SOTHEBY'S HOTELS RESTAURANTS & LEISURE CARNIVAL CORP > CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE DUNKIN' BRANDS GROUP INC INTL SPEEDWAY CORP‐CL A PANERA BREAD COMPANY‐CLAS YUM! BRANDS INC GRAHAM HOLDINGS CO‐CLASS SERVICE CORP INTERNATIONA * DARDEN RESTAURANTS INC DOMINO'S PIZZA INC STARBUCKS CORP > WENDY'S CO/THE APOLLO EDUCATION GROUP IN DEVRY EDUCATION GROUP INC H&R BLOCK INC ‐ ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LT \ MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL ‐CL Restaurants performance varies widely * BRINKER INTERNATIONAL INC BUFFALO WILD WINGS INC CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL IN MCDONALD'S CORP STARWOOD HOTELS & RESORTS \ WYNDHAM WORLDWIDE CORP WYNN RESORTS LTD HOUSEHOLD DURABLES NVR INC > TEMPUR SEALY INTERNATIONAL * JARDEN CORP LEGGETT & PLATT INC MOHAWK INDUSTRIES INC NEWELL RUBBERMAID INC > DR HORTON INC > LENNAR CORP‐A WHIRLPOOL CORP Housing related selectively improving GARMIN LTD \ HARMAN INTERNATIONAL KB HOME * MDC HOLDINGS INC PULTEGROUP INC TOLL BROTHERS INC TUPPERWARE BRANDS CORP INTERNET & CATALOG RETAIL AMAZON.COM INC EXPEDIA INC NETFLIX INC * HSN INC PRICELINE GROUP INC/THE TRIPADVISOR INC LEISURE PRODUCTS MEDIA AMC NETWORKS INC‐A DREAMWORKS ANIMATION SKG‐ LIVE NATION ENTERTAINMENT TIME WARNER CABLE HASBRO INC > BRUNSWICK CORP VISTA OUTDOOR INC > CABLEVISION SYSTEMS‐NY GRP * CINEMARK HOLDINGS INC > GANNETT CO WALT DISNEY CO/THE TIME INC * MATTEL INC * POLARIS INDUSTRIES INC DIRECTV \ TIME WARNER INC CBS CORP‐CLASS B NON VOTI COMCAST CORP‐CLASS A * DISCOVERY COMMUNICATIONS‐A * DISCOVERY COMMUNICATIONS‐C \ INTERPUBLIC GROUP OF COS I MEREDITH CORP * NEW YORK TIMES CO‐A NEWS CORP ‐ CLASS A OMNICOM GROUP SCRIPPS NETWORKS INTER‐CL TWENTY‐FIRST CENTURY FOX‐ VIACOM INC‐CLASS B WILEY (JOHN) & SONS‐CLASS Media remains mixed MULTILINE RETAIL SPECIALTY RETAIL AARON'S INC > AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS ANN INC STAPLES INC TRACTOR SUPPLY COMPANY DOLLAR GENERAL CORP * DOLLAR TREE INC * TARGET CORP > MACY'S INC BIG LOTS INC \ FAMILY DOLLAR STORES NORDSTROM INC * J.C. PENNEY CO INC \ KOHLS CORP AUTOZONE INC CARMAX INC FOOT LOCKER INC * HOME DEPOT INC * L BRANDS INC * LOWE'S COS INC * OFFICE DEPOT INC O'REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC * ROSS STORES INC > + ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC > AUTONATION INC BEST BUY CO INC \ ‐ GAMESTOP CORP‐CLASS A > SIGNET JEWELERS LTD WILLIAMS‐SONOMA INC CST BRANDS INC * ABERCROMBIE & FITCH CO‐CL * ASCENA RETAIL GROUP INC BED BATH & BEYOND INC CABELA'S INC CHICO'S FAS INC \ DICK'S SPORTING GOODS INC GAP INC/THE * GUESS? INC \ MURPHY USA INC * RENT‐A‐CENTER INC * TIFFANY & CO TJX COMPANIES INC \ URBAN OUTFITTERS INC TEXTILES, APPAREL & LUXURY G CARTER'S INC * HANESBRANDS INC NIKE INC ‐CL B UNDER ARMOUR INC‐CLASS A 33 Q4-Q1 leaders nearing first important support near 200-dmas Retail laggards beginning to bounce from oversold levels within weak price trends COACH INC * DECKERS OUTDOOR CORP FOSSIL GROUP INC KATE SPADE & CO MICHAEL KORS HOLDINGS LTD * PVH CORP * RALPH LAUREN CORP \ VF CORP RBC Capital Markets S&P 500 & 400 LONG-TERM RELATIVE TREND VS S&P SECTOR EARLY OUTPERFORMANCE ESTABLISHED OUTPERFORMANCE MARKET PERFORMANCE EARLY UNDERPERFORMANCE ESTABLISHED UNDERPERFORMANCE 0 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT CIENA CORP JUNIPER NETWORKS INC PLANTRONICS INC ELECTRONIC EQUIP., INSTRUMEN > BELDEN INC JABIL CIRCUIT INC > TE CONNECTIVITY LTD * CISCO SYSTEMS INC * INTERDIGITAL INC \ ARRIS GROUP INC > F5 NETWORKS INC > HARRIS CORP * JDS UNIPHASE CORP MOTOROLA SOLUTIONS INC * POLYCOM INC QUALCOMM INC * AMPHENOL CORP‐CL A > COGNEX CORP IPG PHOTONICS CORP ZEBRA TECHNOLOGIES CORP‐C KEYSIGHT TECHNOLOGIES IN KNOWLES CORP ARROW ELECTRONICS INC AVNET INC CORNING INC * FEI COMPANY * FLIR SYSTEMS INC * INGRAM MICRO INC‐CL A ITRON INC NATIONAL INSTRUMENTS CORP * TECH DATA CORP TRIMBLE NAVIGATION LTD VISHAY INTERTECHNOLOGY IN AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC EQUINIX INC FACEBOOK INC‐A GOOGLE INC‐CL C * GOOGLE INC‐CL A \ RACKSPACE HOSTING INC YAHOO! INC * AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSING * BROADRIDGE FINANCIAL SOLUT COGNIZANT TECH SOLUTIONS‐ CORELOGIC INC DST SYSTEMS INC * FISERV INC GLOBAL PAYMENTS INC MAXIMUS INC TOTAL SYSTEM SERVICES INC VISA INC‐CLASS A SHARES WESTERN UNION CO ALLIANCE DATA SYSTEMS COR > JACK HENRY & ASSOCIATES IN ‐ SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INTE ALTERA CORP ANALOG DEVICES INC AVAGO TECHNOLOGIES LTD BROADCOM CORP‐CL A * CYPRESS SEMICONDUCTOR CORP FAIRCHILD SEMICONDUCTOR I INTEGRATED DEVICE TECH IN > LAM RESEARCH CORP NVIDIA CORP SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS INC SUNEDISON INC QORVO INC > ACI WORLDWIDE INC * ADVENT SOFTWARE INC ELECTRONIC ARTS INC FACTSET RESEARCH SYSTEMS FAIR ISAAC CORP FORTINET INC > INFORMATICA CORP INTUIT INC > MENTOR GRAPHICS CORP RED HAT INC > SYNOPSYS INC TYLER TECHNOLOGIES INC CDK GLOBAL INC Select Communication and Electronic Equipment improving INTERNET SOFTWARE & SERVICES AOL INC EBAY INC VERISIGN INC IT SERVICES ACCENTURE PLC‐CL A > COMPUTER SCIENCES CORP CONVERGYS CORP GARTNER INC > LEIDOS HOLDINGS INC MASTERCARD INC‐CLASS A > WEX INC SEMICONDUCTORS & SEMICONDUCT > ATMEL CORP SILICON LABORATORIES INC TERADYNE INC > XILINX INC SOFTWARE ADOBE SYSTEMS INC > ANSYS INC > CADENCE DESIGN SYS INC PTC INC > SALESFORCE.COM INC ULTIMATE SOFTWARE GROUP I Software improving FIDELITY NATIONAL INFO SE \ PAYCHEX INC \ VERIFONE SYSTEMS INC * ACXIOM CORP * INTL BUSINESS MACHINES COR * NEUSTAR INC‐CLASS A TERADATA CORP XEROX CORP INTEL CORP \ TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES APPLIED MATERIALS INC CREE INC FIRST SOLAR INC INTERSIL CORP‐A KLA‐TENCOR CORP LINEAR TECHNOLOGY CORP MICROCHIP TECHNOLOGY INC MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC SEMTECH CORP Internet related and Processors accelerating Semis remain very mixed between individual winners and losers \ MICROSOFT CORP SOLARWINDS INC AUTODESK INC CA INC * CITRIX SYSTEMS INC COMMVAULT SYSTEMS INC * ORACLE CORP ROVI CORP SOLERA HOLDINGS INC * SYMANTEC CORP TECHNOLOGY HARDWARE, STORAGE APPLE INC Hardware/PC related remains weak 34 3D SYSTEMS CORP * DIEBOLD INC * EMC CORP/MA HEWLETT‐PACKARD CO LEXMARK INTERNATIONAL INC * NCR CORPORATION NETAPP INC SANDISK CORP SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY WESTERN DIGITAL CORP RBC Capital Markets S&P 500 & 400 LONG-TERM RELATIVE TREND VS S&P SECTOR EARLY OUTPERFORMANCE ESTABLISHED OUTPERFORMANCE MARKET PERFORMANCE EARLY UNDERPERFORMANCE ESTABLISHED UNDERPERFORMANCE 0 INDUSTRIALS AEROSPACE & DEFENSE HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL I > TELEDYNE TECHNOLOGIES INC TRIUMPH GROUP INC > UNITED TECHNOLOGIES CORP > BOEING CO/THE GENERAL DYNAMICS CORP * HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTR * LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP * NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP ORBITAL ATK INC ROCKWELL COLLINS INC TEXTRON INC KLX INC \ RAYTHEON COMPANY > EXPEDITORS INTL WASH INC FEDEX CORP C.H. ROBINSON WORLDWIDE I * ALASKA AIR GROUP INC * JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORP AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP I LENNOX INTERNATIONAL INC MASCO CORP SMITH (A.O.) CORP ALLEGION PLC B/E AEROSPACE INC ESTERLINE TECHNOLOGIES CO \ L‐3 COMMUNICATIONS HOLDING PRECISION CASTPARTS CORP Aerospace & Defense very mixed AIR FREIGHT & LOGISTICS Select Air Freight AIRLINES accelerating * UNITED PARCEL SERVICE‐CL B \ DELTA AIR LINES INC \ SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO BUILDING PRODUCTS FORTUNE BRANDS HOME & SEC COMMERCIAL SERVICES & SUPPLI ADT CORP/THE RR DONNELLEY & SONS CO CINTAS CORP * DELUXE CORP * HNI CORP * REPUBLIC SERVICES INC ROLLINS INC * STERICYCLE INC > WASTE CONNECTIONS INC \ CLEAN HARBORS INC \ WASTE MANAGEMENT INC Commercial Services broadly correcting CONSTRUCTION & ENGINEERING AECOM > GRANITE CONSTRUCTION INC > KBR INC * COPART INC * HERMAN MILLER INC * MSA SAFETY INC PITNEY BOWES INC TYCO INTERNATIONAL PLC FLUOR CORP JACOBS ENGINEERING GROUP * QUANTA SERVICES INC ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT AMETEK INC EATON CORP PLC > REGAL BELOIT CORP ROCKWELL AUTOMATION INC INDUSTRIAL CONGLOMERATES GENERAL ELECTRIC CO ACUITY BRANDS INC * EMERSON ELECTRIC CO * HUBBELL INC ‐CL B * 3M CO CARLISLE COS INC ROPER TECHNOLOGIES INC MACHINERY AGCO CORP DEERE & CO > IDEX CORP NORDSON CORP > OSHKOSH CORP WOODWARD INC MARINE PROFESSIONAL SERVICES DUN & BRADSTREET CORP FTI CONSULTING INC MANPOWERGROUP INC * ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS INGERSOLL‐RAND PLC PALL CORP SNAP‐ON INC STANLEY BLACK & DECKER IN WABTEC CORP > CLARCOR INC PACCAR INC Oversold rebounds for global cyclicals continues Staffing Co's improving * CATERPILLAR INC CRANE CO * CUMMINS INC DONALDSON CO INC DOVER CORP FLOWSERVE CORP * GRACO INC * HARSCO CORP * ITT CORP JOY GLOBAL INC * KENNAMETAL INC * LINCOLN ELECTRIC HOLDINGS * PARKER HANNIFIN CORP PENTAIR PLC SPX CORP TEREX CORP TIMKEN CO TRINITY INDUSTRIES INC VALMONT INDUSTRIES XYLEM INC KIRBY CORP CEB INC EQUIFAX INC * ROBERT HALF INTL INC > TOWERS WATSON & CO‐CL A * NIELSEN NV ROAD & RAIL * CSX CORP > HUNT (JB) TRANSPRT SVCS IN RYDER SYSTEM INC TRADING COMPANIES & DISTRIBU 35 WATSCO INC > WERNER ENTERPRISES INC Railroads and Truckers weak but becoming oversold NOW INC OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE CON‐WAY INC GENESEE & WYOMING INC‐CL KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN * LANDSTAR SYSTEM INC NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP \ UNION PACIFIC CORP * FASTENAL CO * GATX CORP * MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO‐A * UNITED RENTALS INC * WW GRAINGER INC RBC Capital Markets S&P 500 & 400 LONG-TERM RELATIVE TREND VS S&P SECTOR EARLY OUTPERFORMANCE ESTABLISHED OUTPERFORMANCE MARKET PERFORMANCE EARLY UNDERPERFORMANCE ESTABLISHED UNDERPERFORMANCE 0 MATERIALS CHEMICALS > DOW CHEMICAL CO/THE > ECOLAB INC * AIR PRODUCTS & CHEMICALS I * ASHLAND INC CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS IN CYTEC INDUSTRIES INC * INTL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCES > LYONDELLBASELL INDU‐CL A * NEWMARKET CORP PPG INDUSTRIES INC RPM INTERNATIONAL INC SENSIENT TECHNOLOGIES COR * SHERWIN‐WILLIAMS CO/THE * SIGMA‐ALDRICH > + MINERALS TECHNOLOGIES INC \ OLIN CORP > POLYONE CORPORATION ‐ VALSPAR CORP/THE DU PONT (E.I.) DE NEMOURS Chemical performance remains very mixed with select names beginning to accelerate AIRGAS INC * ALBEMARLE CORP CABOT CORP * EASTMAN CHEMICAL CO FMC CORP MONSANTO CO MOSAIC CO/THE * PRAXAIR INC \ SCOTTS MIRACLE‐GRO CO‐CL A CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS CONTAINERS & PACKAGING > SONOCO PRODUCTS CO MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS VULCAN MATERIALS CO EAGLE MATERIALS INC AVERY DENNISON CORP BALL CORP * BEMIS COMPANY * MEADWESTVACO CORP * ROCK‐TENN COMPANY ‐CL A SEALED AIR CORP * SILGAN HOLDINGS INC * APTARGROUP INC * GREIF INC‐CL A * OWENS‐ILLINOIS INC PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA METALS & MINING STEEL DYNAMICS INC \ ‐ NEWMONT MINING CORP TIMKENSTEEL CORP Metals and Steels quickly pulled back to trading support and are attempting to rebound short-term PAPER & FOREST PRODUCTS > DOMTAR CORP > LOUISIANA‐PACIFIC CORP ALCOA INC * ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES INC * CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY * COMMERCIAL METALS CO COMPASS MINERALS INTERNAT FREEPORT‐MCMORAN INC * NUCOR CORP * RELIANCE STEEL & ALUMINUM ROYAL GOLD INC * UNITED STATES STEEL CORP * WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO ENERGY ENERGY EQUIPMENT & SERVICES > CAMERON INTERNATIONAL CORP > DRIL‐QUIP INC BAKER HUGHES INC DRESSER‐RAND GROUP INC > SCHLUMBERGER LTD Energy correction from 200-dmas now testing next support near 50-dmas OIL, GAS & CONSUMABLE FUELS EQT CORP > EXXON MOBIL CORP > HOLLYFRONTIER CORP OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP 36 CABOT OIL & GAS CORP CIMAREX ENERGY CO * DEVON ENERGY CORP > ENERGEN CORP * EOG RESOURCES INC * KINDER MORGAN INC MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP NEWFIELD EXPLORATION CO PHILLIPS 66 * TESORO CORP * VALERO ENERGY CORP WESTERN REFINING INC * WILLIAMS COS INC * WORLD FUEL SERVICES CORP ‐ ANADARKO PETROLEUM CORP CALIFORNIA RESOURCES CORP \ CHEVRON CORP \ CONOCOPHILLIPS PIONEER NATURAL RESOURCES \ SPECTRA ENERGY CORP * ATWOOD OCEANICS INC * DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING * ENSCO PLC‐CL A * FMC TECHNOLOGIES INC * HALLIBURTON CO * HELIX ENERGY SOLUTIONS GRO * HELMERICH & PAYNE * NABORS INDUSTRIES LTD NATIONAL OILWELL VARCO IN * NOBLE CORP PLC OCEANEERING INTL INC * OIL STATES INTERNATIONAL I * PATTERSON‐UTI ENERGY INC * ROWAN COMPANIES PLC‐A * SUPERIOR ENERGY SERVICES I TIDEWATER INC * TRANSOCEAN LTD * UNIT CORP APACHE CORP CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORP CONSOL ENERGY INC DENBURY RESOURCES INC * GULFPORT ENERGY CORP HESS CORP MARATHON OIL CORP MURPHY OIL CORP * NOBLE ENERGY INC ONEOK INC PEABODY ENERGY CORP QEP RESOURCES INC RANGE RESOURCES CORP * ROSETTA RESOURCES INC SM ENERGY CO SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY CO * WPX ENERGY INC RBC Capital Markets Improving Relative Performers Financials – Brokers begin to reaccelerate – ETFC making new real and relative highs Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 38 RBC Capital Markets Financials – Reacceleration underway – Another Broker making new real and relative highs: SCHW Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 39 RBC Capital Markets Financials – Regional Banks reaccelerate above 2014 highs – Relative continues to improve: SIVB Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 40 RBC Capital Markets Financials – Regional Banks begin to reaccelerate – Relative leading higher: EWBC Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 41 RBC Capital Markets Financials – A broad list of Banks continue to make new relative highs: KEY Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 42 RBC Capital Markets Financials – Reacceleration underway – Diversified Bank breaking 1+ year relative downtrend: CMA Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 43 RBC Capital Markets Financials – Reacceleration underway – Diversified Bank breaking 2-year relative downtrend: C Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 44 RBC Capital Markets Financials – Insurance selectively accelerating after reversing an 18-month downtrend: AIG Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 45 RBC Capital Markets Healthcare – Select Biotech still timely – GILD breaking out of 10+ month consolidation Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 46 RBC Capital Markets Healthcare – Select Biotech still timely – BIIB holding 2+ year uptrend, 200-dma and 2014 highs Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 47 RBC Capital Markets Healthcare – Select Biotech still timely – CELG rebounding after testing 200-dma and 1+ year uptrend Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 48 RBC Capital Markets Healthcare - 2015 consolidation/pause poised to resolve to the upside – Relative performance improving Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 49 RBC Capital Markets Healthcare – Equipment poised to breakout – Relative performance breaking to new 2015 highs: STJ Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 50 RBC Capital Markets Healthcare – ZTS timely on its recent pullback – Note relative performance is leading to the upside Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 51 RBC Capital Markets Discretionary – Retailer showing evidence of accelerating – Relative leading higher: DG Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 52 RBC Capital Markets Discretionary – Select Durables accelerating – NWL breaking to new highs with relative improving Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 53 RBC Capital Markets Discretionary – Select Durables accelerating – MHK breaking to new real and relative highs Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 54 RBC Capital Markets Discretionary – Auto Parts continue to lead – DLPH uptrend intact & beginning to accelerate from 50-dma Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 55 RBC Capital Markets Discretionary – Auto Parts continue to lead – JCI breaking out of 18+ month consolidation Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 56 RBC Capital Markets Technology – IT Services beginning to accelerate – MA breaking to new real and relative highs Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 57 RBC Capital Markets Technology – IT Services showing early signs of accelerating: ADS Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 58 RBC Capital Markets Technology – Software name poised to breakout – ADBE testing 2015 highs with relative improving Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 59 RBC Capital Markets Technology – Software poised to reaccelerate – Relative testing 2014 highs: CRM Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 60 RBC Capital Markets Technology – Software poised to reaccelerate – Relative continued to improve: ORCL Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 61 RBC Capital Markets Discretionary – Select acceleration patterns in Internet Retailers: NFLX Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 62 RBC Capital Markets Technology – Internet-related emerging – FB accelerating from 6+ month uptrend & 200-dma Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 63 RBC Capital Markets Industrials – Select names accelerating – FDX rallying from uptrend & 200-dma to new 2015 highs Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 64 RBC Capital Markets Industrials – Select names accelerating – EXPD reverses 2+ year downtrend and is poised to breakout Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 65 RBC Capital Markets Industrials – Select Machinery showing evidence of reversing 1-year downtrends – IEX timely Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 66 RBC Capital Markets Industrials – 2015 correction beginning to show evidence of bottoming at RHI’s long-term uptrend support Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 67 RBC Capital Markets Industrials – Building Products begin to accelerate – Real & relative performance breaking out: MAS Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 68 RBC Capital Markets Industrials – Transports – JBHT’s correction beginning to reverse from key support Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 69 RBC Capital Markets Materials – Chemicals emerging – PPG’s relative performance profile building to the upside Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 70 RBC Capital Markets Materials – Chemicals emerging – LYB rallying from 50-dma with relative performance turning up Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata 71 RBC Capital Markets Required Disclosures Conflicts Disclosures This product constitutes a compendium report (covers six or more subject companies). As such, RBC Capital markets chooses to provide specific disclosures for the subject companies by reference. To access conflict of interest and other disclosures for the subject companies, clients should refer to https://www.rbccm.com/GLDisclosure/PublicWeb/DisclosureLookup.aspx?entityId=1. These disclosures are also available by sending a written request to RBC Capital Markets Research Publishing, P.O. Box 50, 200 Bay Street, Royal Bank Plaza, 29th Floor, South Tower, Toronto, Ontario M5J 2W7 or an email to [email protected]. The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received compensation that is based upon various factors, including total revenues of the member companies of RBC Capital Markets and its affiliates, a portion of which are or have been generated by investment banking activities of the member companies of RBC Capital Markets and its affiliates. 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Thus, it is possible that a subject company's common equity that is considered a long-term 'Sector Perform' or even an 'Underperform' might present a short-term buying opportunity as a result of temporary selling pressure in the market; conversely, a subject company's common equity rated a long-term 'Outperform' could be considered susceptible to a short-term downward price correction. Short-term trade ideas are not ratings, nor are they part of any ratings system, and the firm generally does not intend, nor undertakes any obligation, to maintain or update short-term trade ideas. Short-term trade ideas may not be suitable for all investors and have not been tailored to individual investor circumstances and objectives, and investors should make their own independent decisions regarding any securities or strategies discussed herein. Please contact your investment advisor or institutional salesperson for more information regarding RBC Capital Markets' research. 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