Stocks Approaching Secular Highs vs. Bonds

Transcription

Weekly Technical Themes – Stocks Approaching Secular Highs vs. Bonds
Finding more actionable technical longs than shorts
MACRO – Stocks vs Bonds continue to improve and challenge secular highs – Continue to overweight stocks.
• Stocks versus Bonds – Challenging their long‐term (2014, 2007 and 2000) relative highs. • S&P 500 – Reverses from initial support at the May lows with potential to ‘break‐out’ to all‐time highs still in place.
June 11, 2015
RBC Capital Markets, LLC
Robert Sluymer, CFA (Analyst)
(212) 858‐7066
[email protected] All values in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted.
Priced as of market close June 11, 2015 (unless otherwise stated).
• Small‐cap Index – Price pattern remains bullish and poised to break to new 2015 highs with improving relative performance. • RBC Economic Scorecard – Continues to rebound and is supportive of a Cyclical rebound/improvement.
• International Markets – EAFE continues to ‘pause/consolidate’ under trend line resistance while EM remains weak/range bound within a relative downtrend.
• Other Macro – Rates: US 10’s reverse 2014‐2015 downtrend, Euro‐Oil: Range bound, Gold: Bullion lags HUI – See pages 15‐22.
• In‐Depth US Equity Relative Performance Review – Sectors, Industry groups and S&P 500 & 400 assessed – See pages 23‐36.
SECTORS & IDEAS – Cyclicals improving while Bond Proxies weaken and secular Growth remains mixed – See pages 37‐71.
• In Wednesday’s It’s All Relative, we noted how we are finding more attractive technical ideas on the long side than short side given the recent decline in many groups. Today’s note features positive technical patterns with most (not all) ranked outperform by RBC’s fundamental analysts. • Financials – Banks and Brokers accelerating from 12+ trading ranges – Use pending near‐term pullbacks to add exposure: ETFC, SCHW, SIVB, EWBC, KEY, CMA, C, AIG
• Industrials – Selectively improving and tracking RBC Economic Scorecard higher: FDX, EXPD, IEX, RHI, MAS, JBHT
• Healthcare, Discretionary and Technology leaders – Buy ideas after 2015 pullbacks/consolidations: GILD, BIIB, CELG, HSIC, STJ, ZTS, DG, NWL, MHK, DLPH, JCI, MA, ADS, ADBE, CRM, NFLX, FB
• Global Cyclicals – USD/Euro/Oil debate continues – This theme remains range bound with short‐term lows developing: LYB, PPG.
• Bond Proxies – REITs, Utilities and select Staples – Weakness continues – Use pending short‐term rebounds to reduce exposure.
For Required Conflicts Disclosures, please see page 72.
Stocks are testing 2007 high vs. US Long Bonds (15-25 year duration) and nearing the 2000 highs
S&P 500 vs. US Long-bond (US1 Comdty)
Challenging the 2014 and 2007 highs with
the 2000 relative highs close by
Source: RBC Capital Markets Trend & Cycle, Bloomberg, Updata
2
RBC Capital Markets
S&P 500 – Bouncing from uptrend near ~2070 – Stocks nearing all time highs vs Bonds (TLT)
Early signs of a
rebound from near
long-term up trend
support and the
May 2015 lows
Weekly
momentum
is neutral
Stocks vs Bonds (TLT)
challenging 2014 and 2017
relative highs
S&P 500 versus TLT Long-bond ETF
3
RBC Capital Markets
S&P 500 – Rallying from initial support at the May lows with Short-term momentum bottoming
Stocks vs. Bonds – Relative uptrend accelerates to new 2015 relative highs
2200
2135
~2040
1980
Bouncing from
first support at
the May lows
~2070
Daily
momentum
rebounding
from 2015 lows
S&P 500 vs. TLT (Bond ETF)
Relative
uptrend intact
and making
NEW 2015
highs
4
RBC Capital Markets
Russell 2000 Long-term – Long-term uptrend intact – Key level = October relative performance lows!
Key
uptrend
intact
Momentum beginning to build from
above the ‘zero’ line
Relative performance vs. S&P 500
Holding above key ’line in the sand’.
A break below would be a longer-term
negative signal for the equity cycle
“So far so good”
5
RBC Capital Markets
Russell 2000 – Consolidating above ~1210-1220 support and now challenging 2015 highs!
Resistance: 1261-1278
2014 highs key support 1212-1220
1211-1220
remains key
support
Daily
momentum
is neutral
Small-cap recovery continues despite real price
weakness. The May 1, 2015 lows are now key support
6
RBC Capital Markets
Style and Sentiment
Growth vs. Value – Leadership intact with signs of near-term stabilization
Weekly data from 2011
Daily data from mid‐2014
LARGE‐CAP
GROWTH vs. VALUE
Uptrend intact, signs of emerging short‐term
MID‐CAP
GROWTH vs. VALUE
Pausing
SMALL‐CAP
GROWTH vs. VALUE
Uptrend intact
8
RBC Capital Markets
Sentiment & RBC Economic Scorecard oversold and showing evidence of starting to rebound
9
RBC Capital Markets
International Equity Markets
EAFE – Stalled under resistance near 67 with longer-term relative performance downtrend intact
Rebound testing
key ~67 level
Counter-trend
recovery underway
11
RBC Capital Markets
DAX – Pullback/consolidation below upper end of long-term trend channel
Pullback
nearing 200dma
Weekly
momentum
continues to
decline
DAX vs. ACWI ($US) relative
performance stalling near key level
12
RBC Capital Markets
European indexes bounce from next trading support
DAX
ITALY
FTSE 100
SPAIN
13
RBC Capital Markets
Emerging Markets – Absolute price stalling under longer-term uptrend – Relative downtrend intact
Retesting longterm uptrend
46
36
Relative counter trend
rally stalling near key
resistance
14
RBC Capital Markets
Bonds, FX and Commodities
US Dollar Index – Consolidation under 99-100 resistance continues
2015 highs
100.39
99.49
96.94
2005 highs
92.63
89.62
88.70
16
RBC Capital Markets
FX – EUR, GBP, JPY & CAD – Oversold consolidations/rebounds continue
17
RBC Capital Markets
WTI Oil – Oversold rebound stalling/consolidating under 2010 lows - $64.24 remains resistance
$74.95
$64.24
Stalling
near
resistance
$43.58
$32.40
Oversold
rebound
beginning
to stall
18
RBC Capital Markets
Brent Oil – Oversold rebound continues to pause/consolidate under key resistance near ~$68
$67.87
$64.08
$59.49
$54.31
$47.26
$39.35
$36.20
Oversold
rebound
beginning
to stall
19
RBC Capital Markets
Energy Short-term – Pullbacks testing next support near 50-dma’s
20
RBC Capital Markets
Precious Metals – Both Gold and Silver continue to consolidate under long-term resistance/uptrends
Silver retesting
long-term
uptrend break &
prior 2013 lows
Gold retesting
long-term
uptrend break
21
RBC Capital Markets
Gold – Consolidation under resistance continues – HUI vs Bullion remains weak
Stalling into
resistance
~$1230
$1132
HUI vs Bullion failed
into key resistance
22
RBC Capital Markets
US Sectors
US – Intermediate-term/Weekly Relative Sector Rotation
STAPLES ENERGY FINANCIALS HEALTHCARE INDUSTRIALS TECHNOLOGY MATERIALS TELCOS UTILITIES 06/12/2015
06/05/2015
05/29/2015
05/22/2015
05/15/2015
05/08/2015
05/01/2015
04/24/2015
04/17/2015
04/10/2015
04/03/2015
03/27/2015
03/20/2015
03/13/2015
03/06/2015
02/27/2015
02/20/2015
02/13/2015
02/06/2015
01/30/2015
01/23/2015
01/16/2015
01/09/2015
01/02/2015
12/26/2014
12/19/2014
12/12/2014
12/05/2014
11/28/2014
11/21/2014
DISCRETIONARY PERCENTAGE OF STOCKS WITHIN EACH S&P 500 SECTOR WITH RISING WEEKLY RELATIVE PERFORMANCE TRENDS
32%
33%
28%
29%
33%
46%
59%
62%
73%
74%
73%
69%
66%
66%
66%
65%
62%
62%
58%
60%
61%
62%
67%
68%
67%
65%
60%
58%
53%
47%
35%
41%
41%
38%
43%
41%
41%
46%
46%
46%
43%
41%
43%
43%
43%
49%
57%
73%
70%
70%
73%
73%
70%
65%
65%
68%
70%
68%
68%
70%
46%
51%
68%
73%
88%
85%
80%
66%
59%
46%
39%
29%
32%
41%
46%
44%
37%
22%
12%
10%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
7%
10%
10%
7%
5%
50%
47%
42%
37%
31%
30%
40%
43%
51%
55%
58%
51%
50%
41%
41%
45%
45%
42%
42%
44%
51%
53%
66%
71%
62%
60%
60%
60%
55%
57%
55%
53%
47%
49%
56%
64%
69%
76%
73%
69%
73%
73%
65%
56%
51%
58%
64%
71%
82%
82%
82%
84%
84%
84%
80%
76%
76%
73%
73%
73%
51%
52%
46%
45%
40%
37%
37%
38%
46%
46%
43%
45%
52%
57%
55%
49%
54%
48%
45%
48%
51%
54%
57%
62%
58%
58%
55%
55%
57%
54%
52%
54%
52%
40%
39%
43%
45%
46%
51%
58%
60%
61%
63%
63%
61%
58%
57%
51%
48%
58%
63%
72%
78%
79%
79%
75%
79%
78%
64%
54%
52%
45%
48%
45%
48%
45%
41%
34%
34%
38%
41%
52%
59%
69%
69%
76%
69%
66%
55%
55%
52%
48%
48%
45%
38%
45%
38%
45%
45%
38%
40%
40%
60%
60%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
60%
60%
60%
60%
80%
80%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
20%
20%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
21%
18%
18%
18%
18%
11%
7%
7%
7%
4%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
14%
64%
86%
89%
89%
86%
86%
79%
79%
75%
75%
68%
79%
89%
89%
Intermediate-term/weekly
Key points:
• Discretionary showing early signs
of firming/improving
• Staples pullback continues
• Energy stalling
• Financials recovery continues
• Healthcare showing early signs of
firming/improving
• Industrials: Further signs of
improving
• Technology: Recovery continues
• Materials range bound
• Utilities – Weak recovery is
already showing signs of failing.
• See next page for a shorter-term
perspective and inflection
points
24
RBC Capital Markets
US – Short-term/Daily Relative Sector Rotation
STAPLES ENERGY FINANCIALS HEALTHCARE INDUSTRIALS TECHNOLOGY MATERIALS TELCOS UTILITIES 06/10/2015
06/09/2015
06/08/2015
06/05/2015
06/04/2015
06/03/2015
06/02/2015
06/01/2015
05/29/2015
05/28/2015
05/27/2015
05/26/2015
05/22/2015
05/21/2015
05/20/2015
05/19/2015
05/18/2015
05/15/2015
05/14/2015
05/13/2015
05/12/2015
05/11/2015
05/08/2015
05/07/2015
05/06/2015
05/05/2015
05/04/2015
05/01/2015
04/30/2015
DISCRETIONARY PERCENTAGE OF STOCKS WITHIN EACH S&P 500 SECTOR WITH RISING DAILY RELATIVE PERFORMANCE TRENDS
65%
67%
66%
62%
56%
52%
42%
41%
44%
46%
47%
48%
46%
47%
49%
42%
36%
38%
36%
48%
46%
33%
32%
38%
31%
33%
31%
31%
29%
19%
16%
14%
16%
22%
27%
35%
41%
49%
46%
49%
49%
54%
73%
81%
78%
78%
73%
65%
57%
62%
54%
41%
41%
35%
27%
22%
22%
19%
39%
32%
32%
20%
22%
10%
7%
7%
10%
17%
12%
7%
12%
17%
15%
15%
22%
27%
34%
27%
37%
44%
46%
51%
61%
63%
68%
68%
63%
59%
58%
57%
50%
43%
40%
38%
40%
45%
47%
43%
47%
48%
50%
55%
55%
53%
56%
57%
59%
64%
65%
62%
57%
55%
49%
42%
34%
29%
56%
56%
65%
71%
69%
69%
75%
78%
78%
75%
78%
78%
78%
73%
71%
71%
58%
60%
51%
45%
36%
31%
25%
20%
24%
24%
18%
15%
15%
51%
52%
48%
38%
29%
31%
31%
34%
34%
43%
49%
49%
58%
57%
57%
60%
66%
66%
63%
60%
57%
52%
49%
46%
43%
43%
48%
46%
45%
49%
49%
55%
55%
58%
60%
57%
54%
54%
54%
55%
55%
54%
54%
61%
60%
57%
55%
54%
49%
48%
48%
46%
52%
54%
55%
60%
51%
49%
48%
45%
34%
38%
41%
41%
45%
48%
45%
28%
31%
41%
55%
55%
59%
55%
48%
55%
55%
72%
76%
76%
76%
79%
69%
69%
69%
66%
55%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
0%
0%
20%
20%
20%
40%
40%
60%
60%
80%
80%
80%
80%
3%
3%
3%
3%
20%
47%
77%
83%
77%
73%
73%
70%
60%
57%
37%
10%
10%
13%
10%
13%
10%
13%
20%
20%
30%
43%
50%
50%
63%
Short-term/Daily
Key points:
• Discretionary improving
• Staples correction continues
• Energy beginning to firm
• Financials recovery continues
• Healthcare decelerating
• Industrials improving
• Technology pausing
• Material recovering
• Utilities remain weak
25
RBC Capital Markets
S&P 500 Sector Relative Performance vs. S&P500
FINANCIALS Near‐term improvement from lower end of range continues led by Banks
UTILITIES Relative weakness continues – New lows
TELCOs Downtrend intact
STAPLES
Downtrend intact
HEALTHCARE 12+ month uptrend intact. Near‐term pullback underway
26
RBC Capital Markets
S&P 500 Sector Relative Performance vs. S&P500
DISCRETIONARY
Firming/rallying from Q4/Q1 uptrend
TECHNOLOGY
Uptrend intact
INDUSTRIALS
Downtrend intact with short‐term lows attempting top developi at the 2014 lows
MATERIALS
Rebounding from test of 2014 relative lows
ENERGY Correction from resistance continues, nearing short‐term lows
27
RBC Capital Markets
Relative Performance
Summaries
S&P 1500 Groups vs. S&P 500
S&P 900 Stocks vs. S&P Sector
S&P 1500 GROUPS WEEKLY RELATIVE PERFORMANCE VS S&P 500
EARLY
OUTPERFORMANCE
ESTABLISHED
OUTPERFORMANCE
MARKET
PERFORMANCE
EARLY
UNDERPERFORMANCE
ESTABLISHED
UNDERPERFORMANCE
0
FINANCIALS
ASSET MANAGERS
CONSUMER FINANCE
Banks and
Brokers building
relative leadership
Add on pending
pulllbacks
DIVERSIFIED BANKS
INVESTMENT BANKS & BROKER
REGIONAL BANKS
THRIFTS & MORTGAGE
INSURANCE BROKERS
LIFE & HEALTH INSURANCE
MULTILINE INSURANCE
REINSURANCE
\ DEVELOPMENT REITS
Bond Proxies - REITs and
Utilities remain in corrective
trends
Short-term rebound pending
HOTEL & RESORT REITS
DIV. FINANCIAL SERVICES
DIVERSIFIED REITS
* HEALTHCARE REITS
INDUSTRIAL REITS
MORTGAGE REITS
OFFICE REITS
RESIDENTIAL REITS
RETAIL REITS
SPECIALIZED REITS
P&C INSURANCE
UTILITIES
IND. POWER PRODUCERS
\ GAS UTILITIES
WATER UTILITIES
ELECTRIC UTILITIES
MULTI‐UTILITIES
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
WIRELESS TELCOS
ALTERNATIVE CARRIERS
INTEGRATED TELCOS
* FOOD PRODUCTS
* PERSONAL PRODUCTS
BEVERAGES
FOOD & STAPLES RETAILING
* HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS
* TOBACCO
CONSUMER STAPLES
HEALTH CARE
> LIFE SCIENCES TOOLS
HEALTHCARE SUPPLIES
PHARMACEUTICALS
> BIOTECHNOLOGY
HEALTHCARE DISTRIBUTORS
HEALTHCARE FACILITIES
MANAGED HEALTHCARE
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
> AUTOMOTIVE RETAIL
SPECIALIZED CONS SERVICES
DISTRIBUTORS
HOUSEWARES & SPECIALTIES
Auto Parts
accelerating
Long-term uptrend
intact for Healthcare
CABLE & SATELLITE
AUTO COMPONENTS
INTERNET & CATALOG
RESTAURANTS
> SPECIALTY STORES
FOOTWEAR
HOME FURNISHINGS
* LEISURE FACILITIES
LEISURE PRODUCTS
\ ‐ BROADCASTING
\ ‐ HOTELS & CRUISE LINES
INDUSTRIALS
> CONS. MACHINERY‐TRUCKS
DIVERSIFIED SUPPORT
> HR & EMPLOYMENT
AIR FREIGHT & LOGISTICS
> INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY
ENERGY
> OIL & GAS DRILLING
GENERAL MERCHANDISE
\ MOVIES & ENTERTAINMENT
* EDUCATION SERVICES
HOMEFURNISHING RETAIL
* AUTOMOBILES
PUBLISHING
ADVERTISING
APPAREL RETAIL
APPAREL & LUXURY
CASINOS & GAMING
ELECTRONICS RETAIL
CONSUMER ELECTRONICS
* DEPARTMENT STORES
* HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES
HOMEBUILDING
HOME IMPROVEMENT
DATA PROCESSING
SYSTEMS SOFTWARE
APPLICATION SOFTWARE
IT CONSULTING & SERVICES
\ ‐ INTERNET SOFTWARE & SERV.
\ COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT
\ TECHNOLOGY DISTRIBUTORS
ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS
\ ELECTRONIC MANUFACTURING
SEMI EQUIPMENT
> AGRICULTURAL MACHINERY
RESEARCH & CONSULTING
ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT
BUILDING PRODUCTS
CONSTRUCTION & ENGINEERIN
INDUSTRIAL CONGLOMERATES
TRADING & DISTRIBUTION
MARINE
COMMERCIAL PRINTING
* ENVIRONMENTAL & FACILITIES
* SECURITY & ALARM
RAILROADS
* TRUCKING
AEROSPACE & DEFENSE
AIRLINES
* OFFICE SERVICES & SUPPLIES
COMMODITY CHEMICALS
* CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS
\ ‐ PRECIOUS METALS
Air Freight and select Machinery improving
MATERIALS
> SPECIALTY CHEMICALS
STEEL
FOREST PRODUCTS
> PAPER PACKAGING
HEALTHCARE SERVICES
* HEALTHCARE EQUIPMENT
Retail weak
with oversold
trading
rebounds
developing
Processors, Software, select Semis and
IT continue to lead Technology
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
> HARDWARE & STORAGE
ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT
SEMICONDUCTORS
\ HEALTHCARE TECHNOLOGY
Transports remain
under pressure but are
becoming oversold
\ GOLD
ALUMINUM
DIVERSIFIED CHEMICALS
* FERTILIZERS & AG
* INDUSTRIAL GASES
* METAL & GLASS CONTAINERS
* DIV. METALS & MINING
PAPER PRODUCTS
REFINING & MARKETING
COAL & CONSUMABLES
STORAGE & TRANSPORTATION
* INTEGRATED OIL & GAS
* EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION
Chemicals improving
OIL EQUIPMENT & SERVICES
Energy pullback from 200-dmas now
testing first support at 50-dma
29
RBC Capital Markets
S&P 500 & 400 LONG-TERM RELATIVE TREND VS S&P SECTOR
EARLY
OUTPERFORMANCE
ESTABLISHED
OUTPERFORMANCE
MARKET
PERFORMANCE
EARLY
UNDERPERFORMANCE
ESTABLISHED
UNDERPERFORMANCE
0
FINANCIALS
BANKS
> ASSOCIATED BANC‐CORP
BANK OF THE OZARKS
> FIRST NIAGARA FINANCIAL GR
* CULLEN/FROST BANKERS INC
BANCORPSOUTH INC
CATHAY GENERAL BANCORP
> PACWEST BANCORP
* FIFTH THIRD BANCORP
> BANK OF AMERICA CORP
EAST WEST BANCORP INC
BANK OF HAWAII CORP
FIRST HORIZON NATIONAL CO
> BB&T CORP
HUNTINGTON BANCSHARES INC
CITIGROUP INC
PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GR
> COMERICA INC
> SIGNATURE BANK
> COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC
SVB FINANCIAL GROUP
FIRSTMERIT CORP
SYNOVUS FINANCIAL CORP
FULTON FINANCIAL CORP
WEBSTER FINANCIAL CORP
> INTERNATIONAL BANCSHARES C
WELLS FARGO & CO
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO
* HANCOCK HOLDING CO
Banks and Brokers and continue
to show evidence of improving
* M & T BANK CORP
* PROSPERITY BANCSHARES INC
* US BANCORP
* VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP
Expect near-term pullbacks
Add on pending weakness to
increase exposure
KEYCORP
> PEOPLE'S UNITED FINANCIAL
> REGIONS FINANCIAL CORP
SUNTRUST BANKS INC
> TCF FINANCIAL CORP
> TRUSTMARK CORP
> UMPQUA HOLDINGS CORP
> ZIONS BANCORPORATION
CAPITAL MARKETS
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC
BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON C
AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC
\ EATON VANCE CORP
RAYMOND JAMES FINANCIAL I
E*TRADE FINANCIAL CORP
\ AFFILIATED MANAGERS GROUP
\ BLACKROCK INC
FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC
STATE STREET CORP
FEDERATED INVESTORS INC‐C
\ INVESCO LTD
T ROWE PRICE GROUP INC
> STIFEL FINANCIAL CORP
* JANUS CAPITAL GROUP INC
LEGG MASON INC
WADDELL & REED FINANCIAL‐
MORGAN STANLEY
NORTHERN TRUST CORP
Active Asset Managers
weakening
SCHWAB (CHARLES) CORP
SEI INVESTMENTS COMPANY
CONSUMER FINANCE
> CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORP
NAVIENT CORP
AMERICAN EXPRESS CO
SLM CORP
DISCOVER FINANCIAL SERVIC
DIVERSIFIED FINANCIAL SERVIC
INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE
CME GROUP INC
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC‐CL
MCGRAW HILL FINANCIAL INC
CBOE HOLDINGS INC
LEUCADIA NATIONAL CORP
MOODY'S CORP
* MSCI INC
* NASDAQ OMX GROUP/THE
INSURANCE
‐ ALLEGHANY CORP
AON PLC
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP ALLSTATE CORP
ACE LTD
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GR
* FIRST AMERICAN FINANCIAL
PROGRESSIVE CORP
\ ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS L
AFLAC INC
> CNO FINANCIAL GROUP INC
* HANOVER INSURANCE GROUP IN
\ MERCURY GENERAL CORP
ARTHUR J GALLAGHER & CO
EVEREST RE GROUP LTD
* HARTFORD FINANCIAL SVCS GR
TRAVELERS COS INC/THE
* ASSURANT INC
> METLIFE INC
HCC INSURANCE HOLDINGS IN
WR BERKLEY CORP
* BROWN & BROWN INC
> PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL INC
> LINCOLN NATIONAL CORP
STANCORP FINANCIAL GROUP
* MARSH & MCLENNAN COS
TORCHMARK CORP
REINSURANCE GROUP OF AMER
> UNUM GROUP
XL GROUP PLC
\ CHUBB CORP
CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORP
P&C weakness
continues while
Life Co's improving
with Banks
GENWORTH FINANCIAL INC‐CL
\ KEMPER CORP
LOEWS CORP
OLD REPUBLIC INTL CORP
PRIMERICA INC
* PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP
RENAISSANCERE HOLDINGS LT
30
RBC Capital Markets
EARLY
OUTPERFORMANCE
ESTABLISHED
OUTPERFORMANCE
MARKET
PERFORMANCE
EARLY
UNDERPERFORMANCE
ESTABLISHED
UNDERPERFORMANCE
0
REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
LAMAR ADVERTISING CO‐A
* EXTRA SPACE STORAGE INC
* HOME PROPERTIES INC
* MACERICH CO/THE
COMMUNICATIONS SALES & LE
URBAN EDGE PROPERTIES
WP GLIMCHER INC
REIT's continue
to underperform
Use pending
near-term
bounces to
reduce exposure
\ ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE EQU
AMERICAN TOWER CORP
\ APARTMENT INVT & MGMT CO ‐
\ AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC
\ BOSTON PROPERTIES INC
DUKE REALTY CORP
\ EQUITY RESIDENTIAL
\ ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST INC
FEDERAL REALTY INVS TRUST
\ GENERAL GROWTH PROPERTIES
\ HEALTH CARE REIT INC
\ IRON MOUNTAIN INC
KILROY REALTY CORP
LASALLE HOTEL PROPERTIES
\ MID‐AMERICA APARTMENT COMM
\ PUBLIC STORAGE
\ REGENCY CENTERS CORP
SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC
SL GREEN REALTY CORP
\ UDR INC
\ AMERICAN CAMPUS COMMUNITIE
BIOMED REALTY TRUST INC
\ CAMDEN PROPERTY TRUST
CORPORATE OFFICE PROPERTI
\ CORRECTIONS CORP OF AMERIC
\ CROWN CASTLE INTL CORP
\ DOUGLAS EMMETT INC
\ EQUITY ONE INC
HCP INC
HIGHWOODS PROPERTIES INC
\ HOSPITALITY PROPERTIES TRU
HOST HOTELS & RESORTS INC
KIMCO REALTY CORP
LIBERTY PROPERTY TRUST
MACK‐CALI REALTY CORP
\ NATIONAL RETAIL PROPERTIES
OMEGA HEALTHCARE INVESTOR
PLUM CREEK TIMBER CO
POTLATCH CORP
PROLOGIS INC
RAYONIER INC
\ REALTY INCOME CORP
SENIOR HOUSING PROP TRUST
TANGER FACTORY OUTLET CEN
\ TAUBMAN CENTERS INC
\ VENTAS INC
\ VORNADO REALTY TRUST
\ WEINGARTEN REALTY INVESTOR
WEYERHAEUSER CO
REAL ESTATE MANAGEMENT & DEV
* CBRE GROUP INC ‐ A
* JONES LANG LASALLE INC
ALEXANDER & BALDWIN INC
THRIFTS & MORTGAGE FINANCE
NEW YORK COMMUNITY BANCOR
> WASHINGTON FEDERAL INC
* HUDSON CITY BANCORP INC
UTILITIES
ELECTRIC UTILITIES
FIRSTENERGY CORP
GAS UTILITIES
ATMOS ENERGY CORP
* AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER
* HAWAIIAN ELECTRIC INDS
NEXTERA ENERGY INC
> PEPCO HOLDINGS INC
* XCEL ENERGY INC
> CLECO CORPORATION
> EXELON CORP
PINNACLE WEST CAPITAL
> UGI CORP
WGL HOLDINGS INC
ONE GAS INC
INDEPENDENT POWER AND RENEWA
\ EDISON INTERNATIONAL
ENTERGY CORP
\ EVERSOURCE ENERGY
IDACORP INC
\ PPL CORP
Electric and Multi-Utilities
weakening vs the sector
= TALEN ENERGY CORP
\ DUKE ENERGY CORP
GREAT PLAINS ENERGY INC
OGE ENERGY CORP
PNM RESOURCES INC
* SOUTHERN CO/THE
WESTAR ENERGY INC
AGL RESOURCES INC
* NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO
QUESTAR CORP
* AES CORP
* NRG ENERGY INC
MULTI‐UTILITIES
* CMS ENERGY CORP
* INTEGRYS ENERGY GROUP INC
NISOURCE INC
* P G & E CORP
PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE
SEMPRA ENERGY
\ CONSOLIDATED EDISON INC
TECO ENERGY INC
\ ALLIANT ENERGY CORP
DTE ENERGY COMPANY
VECTREN CORP
WISCONSIN ENERGY CORP
AMEREN CORPORATION
BLACK HILLS CORP
CENTERPOINT ENERGY INC
DOMINION RESOURCES INC/VA
MDU RESOURCES GROUP INC
\ SCANA CORP
\ VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC
CENTURYLINK INC
\ FRONTIER COMMUNICATIONS CO
WATER UTILITIES
AQUA AMERICA INC
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
DIVERSIFIED TELECOMMUNICATIO
> AT&T INC
LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS IN
WIRELESS TELECOMMUNICATION S
TELEPHONE AND DATA SYSTEM
31
RBC Capital Markets
EARLY
OUTPERFORMANCE
ESTABLISHED
OUTPERFORMANCE
MARKET
PERFORMANCE
EARLY
UNDERPERFORMANCE
ESTABLISHED
UNDERPERFORMANCE
0
CONSUMER STAPLES
BEVERAGES
CONSTELLATION BRANDS INC‐
* DR PEPPER SNAPPLE GROUP IN
* MONSTER BEVERAGE CORP
\ ‐ BOSTON BEER COMPANY INC‐A
> BROWN‐FORMAN CORP‐CLASS B
PEPSICO INC
MOLSON COORS BREWING CO ‐
COCA‐COLA CO/THE
COCA‐COLA ENTERPRISES
* COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP
CVS HEALTH CORP
* KROGER CO
WALGREENS BOOTS ALLIANCE Staples generally
weakening with
bond proxies
SUPERVALU INC
* SYSCO CORP
UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC
WAL‐MART STORES INC
WHOLE FOODS MARKET INC
FOOD & STAPLES RETAILING
FOOD PRODUCTS
ARCHER‐DANIELS‐MIDLAND CO
CAMPBELL SOUP CO
CONAGRA FOODS INC
DEAN FOODS CO
FLOWERS FOODS INC
GENERAL MILLS INC
> INGREDION INC
JM SMUCKER CO/THE
MCCORMICK & CO‐NON VTG SH
MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL IN
TOOTSIE ROLL INDS
TYSON FOODS INC‐CL A
HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS
HAIN CELESTIAL GROUP INC
HORMEL FOODS CORP
KRAFT FOODS GROUP INC
WHITEWAVE FOODS CO
HERSHEY CO/THE
KELLOGG CO
KEURIG GREEN MOUNTAIN INC
LANCASTER COLONY CORP
\ MEAD JOHNSON NUTRITION CO
* POST HOLDINGS INC
\ TREEHOUSE FOODS INC
Food Products
notably mixed
CHURCH & DWIGHT CO INC
* CLOROX COMPANY
* ENERGIZER HOLDINGS INC
* COLGATE‐PALMOLIVE CO
KIMBERLY‐CLARK CORP
PROCTER & GAMBLE CO/THE
PERSONAL PRODUCTS
> ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES‐CL AVON PRODUCTS INC
TOBACCO
Biotech pull back nearing
first support level
* ALTRIA GROUP INC
LORILLARD INC
REYNOLDS AMERICAN INC
* PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONA
HEALTH CARE
BIOTECHNOLOGY
GILEAD SCIENCES INC
HEALTH CARE EQUIPMENT & SUPP
> ALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC
HILL‐ROM HOLDINGS INC
SIRONA DENTAL SYSTEMS INC
TELEFLEX INC
THORATEC CORP
REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS
UNITED THERAPEUTICS CORP
* VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INC
BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORP
* EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORP
HOLOGIC INC
\ ‐ COOPER COS INC/THE
HALYARD HEALTH INC
\ BIOGEN INC
\ CELGENE CORP
ALEXION PHARMACEUTICALS I
\ AMGEN INC
CR BARD INC
\ MEDTRONIC PLC
RESMED INC
STERIS CORP
* ABBOTT LABORATORIES
BAXTER INTERNATIONAL INC
\ BECTON DICKINSON AND CO
* DENTSPLY INTERNATIONAL INC
\ IDEXX LABORATORIES INC
INTUITIVE SURGICAL INC
* ST JUDE MEDICAL INC
STRYKER CORP
VARIAN MEDICAL SYSTEMS IN
ZIMMER HOLDINGS INC
\ COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS I
\ LABORATORY CRP OF AMER HLD
\ LIFEPOINT HEALTH INC
DAVITA HEALTHCARE PARTNER
* HENRY SCHEIN INC
\ MEDNAX INC
OWENS & MINOR INC
PATTERSON COS INC
* TENET HEALTHCARE CORP
Equipment & Supplies
underperforming the sector
HEALTH CARE PROVIDERS & SERV
Hospitals and
HMO's have
accelerated but
are pausing /
consoliating
AETNA INC
* AMERISOURCEBERGEN CORP
ANTHEM INC
CENTENE CORP
CIGNA CORP
HCA HOLDINGS INC
HEALTH NET INC
HUMANA INC
MCKESSON CORP
OMNICARE INC
* UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC
UNIVERSAL HEALTH SERVICES
* VCA INC
> CARDINAL HEALTH INC
> EXPRESS SCRIPTS HOLDING CO
\ ‐ QUEST DIAGNOSTICS INC
WELLCARE HEALTH PLANS INC
HEALTH CARE TECHNOLOGY
* ALLSCRIPTS HEALTHCARE SOLU
\ CERNER CORP
* HMS HOLDINGS CORP
LIFE SCIENCES TOOLS & SERVIC
BIO‐RAD LABORATORIES‐A
> CHARLES RIVER LABORATORIES
PERKINELMER INC
WATERS CORP
PHARMACEUTICALS
> ABBVIE INC
BRISTOL‐MYERS SQUIBB CO
PERRIGO CO PLC
32
> METTLER‐TOLEDO INTERNATION
ACTAVIS PLC
* AKORN INC
> ELI LILLY & CO
HOSPIRA INC
* MALLINCKRODT PLC
MYLAN NV
ZOETIS INC
AGILENT TECHNOLOGIES INC
BIO‐TECHNE CORP
THERMO FISHER SCIENTIFIC \ ENDO INTERNATIONAL PLC
JOHNSON & JOHNSON
MERCK & CO. INC.
PFIZER INC
RBC Capital Markets
EARLY
OUTPERFORMANCE
ESTABLISHED
OUTPERFORMANCE
MARKET
PERFORMANCE
EARLY
UNDERPERFORMANCE
ESTABLISHED
UNDERPERFORMANCE
0
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
AUTO COMPONENTS
> GOODYEAR TIRE & RUBBER CO
> JOHNSON CONTROLS INC
DELPHI AUTOMOTIVE PLC
Auto Parts accelerating
AUTOMOBILES
Auto Mfg remains
weak, early signs of
becoming oversold
DISTRIBUTORS
* BORGWARNER INC
* DANA HOLDING CORP
* GENTEX CORP
FORD MOTOR CO
GENERAL MOTORS CO
HARLEY‐DAVIDSON INC
\ THOR INDUSTRIES INC
GENUINE PARTS CO
* LKQ CORP
DIVERSIFIED CONSUMER SERVICE
> SOTHEBY'S
HOTELS RESTAURANTS & LEISURE
CARNIVAL CORP
> CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE
DUNKIN' BRANDS GROUP INC
INTL SPEEDWAY CORP‐CL A
PANERA BREAD COMPANY‐CLAS
YUM! BRANDS INC
GRAHAM HOLDINGS CO‐CLASS SERVICE CORP INTERNATIONA
* DARDEN RESTAURANTS INC
DOMINO'S PIZZA INC
STARBUCKS CORP
> WENDY'S CO/THE
APOLLO EDUCATION GROUP IN
DEVRY EDUCATION GROUP INC
H&R BLOCK INC
‐ ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LT
\ MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL ‐CL
Restaurants performance
varies widely
* BRINKER INTERNATIONAL INC
BUFFALO WILD WINGS INC
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL IN
MCDONALD'S CORP
STARWOOD HOTELS & RESORTS
\ WYNDHAM WORLDWIDE CORP
WYNN RESORTS LTD
HOUSEHOLD DURABLES
NVR INC
> TEMPUR SEALY INTERNATIONAL
* JARDEN CORP
LEGGETT & PLATT INC
MOHAWK INDUSTRIES INC
NEWELL RUBBERMAID INC
> DR HORTON INC
> LENNAR CORP‐A
WHIRLPOOL CORP
Housing related
selectively improving
GARMIN LTD
\ HARMAN INTERNATIONAL
KB HOME
* MDC HOLDINGS INC
PULTEGROUP INC
TOLL BROTHERS INC
TUPPERWARE BRANDS CORP
INTERNET & CATALOG RETAIL
AMAZON.COM INC
EXPEDIA INC
NETFLIX INC
* HSN INC
PRICELINE GROUP INC/THE
TRIPADVISOR INC
LEISURE PRODUCTS
MEDIA
AMC NETWORKS INC‐A
DREAMWORKS ANIMATION SKG‐
LIVE NATION ENTERTAINMENT
TIME WARNER CABLE
HASBRO INC
> BRUNSWICK CORP
VISTA OUTDOOR INC
> CABLEVISION SYSTEMS‐NY GRP
* CINEMARK HOLDINGS INC
> GANNETT CO
WALT DISNEY CO/THE
TIME INC
* MATTEL INC
* POLARIS INDUSTRIES INC
DIRECTV
\ TIME WARNER INC
CBS CORP‐CLASS B NON VOTI
COMCAST CORP‐CLASS A
* DISCOVERY COMMUNICATIONS‐A
* DISCOVERY COMMUNICATIONS‐C
\ INTERPUBLIC GROUP OF COS I
MEREDITH CORP
* NEW YORK TIMES CO‐A
NEWS CORP ‐ CLASS A
OMNICOM GROUP
SCRIPPS NETWORKS INTER‐CL
TWENTY‐FIRST CENTURY FOX‐
VIACOM INC‐CLASS B
WILEY (JOHN) & SONS‐CLASS
Media remains mixed
MULTILINE RETAIL
SPECIALTY RETAIL
AARON'S INC
> AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS
ANN INC
STAPLES INC
TRACTOR SUPPLY COMPANY
DOLLAR GENERAL CORP
* DOLLAR TREE INC
* TARGET CORP
> MACY'S INC
BIG LOTS INC
\ FAMILY DOLLAR STORES
NORDSTROM INC
* J.C. PENNEY CO INC
\ KOHLS CORP
AUTOZONE INC
CARMAX INC
FOOT LOCKER INC
* HOME DEPOT INC
* L BRANDS INC
* LOWE'S COS INC
* OFFICE DEPOT INC
O'REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC
* ROSS STORES INC
> + ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC
> AUTONATION INC
BEST BUY CO INC
\ ‐ GAMESTOP CORP‐CLASS A
> SIGNET JEWELERS LTD
WILLIAMS‐SONOMA INC
CST BRANDS INC
* ABERCROMBIE & FITCH CO‐CL * ASCENA RETAIL GROUP INC
BED BATH & BEYOND INC
CABELA'S INC
CHICO'S FAS INC
\ DICK'S SPORTING GOODS INC
GAP INC/THE
* GUESS? INC
\ MURPHY USA INC
* RENT‐A‐CENTER INC
* TIFFANY & CO
TJX COMPANIES INC
\ URBAN OUTFITTERS INC
TEXTILES, APPAREL & LUXURY G
CARTER'S INC
* HANESBRANDS INC
NIKE INC ‐CL B
UNDER ARMOUR INC‐CLASS A
33
Q4-Q1 leaders
nearing first
important support
near 200-dmas
Retail laggards
beginning to
bounce from
oversold levels
within weak price
trends
COACH INC
* DECKERS OUTDOOR CORP
FOSSIL GROUP INC
KATE SPADE & CO
MICHAEL KORS HOLDINGS LTD
* PVH CORP
* RALPH LAUREN CORP
\ VF CORP
RBC Capital Markets
EARLY
OUTPERFORMANCE
ESTABLISHED
OUTPERFORMANCE
MARKET
PERFORMANCE
EARLY
UNDERPERFORMANCE
ESTABLISHED
UNDERPERFORMANCE
0
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT
CIENA CORP
JUNIPER NETWORKS INC
PLANTRONICS INC
ELECTRONIC EQUIP., INSTRUMEN
> BELDEN INC
JABIL CIRCUIT INC
> TE CONNECTIVITY LTD
* CISCO SYSTEMS INC
* INTERDIGITAL INC
\ ARRIS GROUP INC
> F5 NETWORKS INC
> HARRIS CORP
* JDS UNIPHASE CORP
MOTOROLA SOLUTIONS INC
* POLYCOM INC
QUALCOMM INC
* AMPHENOL CORP‐CL A
> COGNEX CORP
IPG PHOTONICS CORP
ZEBRA TECHNOLOGIES CORP‐C
KEYSIGHT TECHNOLOGIES IN
KNOWLES CORP
ARROW ELECTRONICS INC
AVNET INC
CORNING INC
* FEI COMPANY
* FLIR SYSTEMS INC
* INGRAM MICRO INC‐CL A
ITRON INC
NATIONAL INSTRUMENTS CORP
* TECH DATA CORP
TRIMBLE NAVIGATION LTD
VISHAY INTERTECHNOLOGY IN
AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC
EQUINIX INC
FACEBOOK INC‐A
GOOGLE INC‐CL C
* GOOGLE INC‐CL A
\ RACKSPACE HOSTING INC
YAHOO! INC
* AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSING
* BROADRIDGE FINANCIAL SOLUT
COGNIZANT TECH SOLUTIONS‐
CORELOGIC INC
DST SYSTEMS INC
* FISERV INC
GLOBAL PAYMENTS INC
MAXIMUS INC
TOTAL SYSTEM SERVICES INC
VISA INC‐CLASS A SHARES
WESTERN UNION CO
ALLIANCE DATA SYSTEMS COR
> JACK HENRY & ASSOCIATES IN
‐ SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INTE
ALTERA CORP
ANALOG DEVICES INC
AVAGO TECHNOLOGIES LTD
BROADCOM CORP‐CL A
* CYPRESS SEMICONDUCTOR CORP
FAIRCHILD SEMICONDUCTOR I
INTEGRATED DEVICE TECH IN
> LAM RESEARCH CORP
NVIDIA CORP
SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS INC
SUNEDISON INC
QORVO INC
> ACI WORLDWIDE INC
* ADVENT SOFTWARE INC
ELECTRONIC ARTS INC
FACTSET RESEARCH SYSTEMS FAIR ISAAC CORP
FORTINET INC
> INFORMATICA CORP
INTUIT INC
> MENTOR GRAPHICS CORP
RED HAT INC
> SYNOPSYS INC
TYLER TECHNOLOGIES INC
CDK GLOBAL INC
Select Communication and
Electronic Equipment improving
INTERNET SOFTWARE & SERVICES
AOL INC
EBAY INC
VERISIGN INC
IT SERVICES
ACCENTURE PLC‐CL A
> COMPUTER SCIENCES CORP
CONVERGYS CORP
GARTNER INC
> LEIDOS HOLDINGS INC
MASTERCARD INC‐CLASS A
> WEX INC
SEMICONDUCTORS & SEMICONDUCT
> ATMEL CORP
SILICON LABORATORIES INC
TERADYNE INC
> XILINX INC
SOFTWARE
ADOBE SYSTEMS INC
> ANSYS INC
> CADENCE DESIGN SYS INC
PTC INC
> SALESFORCE.COM INC
ULTIMATE SOFTWARE GROUP I
Software
improving
FIDELITY NATIONAL INFO SE
\ PAYCHEX INC
\ VERIFONE SYSTEMS INC
* ACXIOM CORP
* INTL BUSINESS MACHINES COR
* NEUSTAR INC‐CLASS A
TERADATA CORP
XEROX CORP
INTEL CORP
\ TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC
ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES
APPLIED MATERIALS INC
CREE INC
FIRST SOLAR INC
INTERSIL CORP‐A
KLA‐TENCOR CORP
LINEAR TECHNOLOGY CORP
MICROCHIP TECHNOLOGY INC
MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC
SEMTECH CORP
Internet related
and Processors
accelerating
Semis remain very mixed between
individual winners and losers
\ MICROSOFT CORP
SOLARWINDS INC
AUTODESK INC
CA INC
* CITRIX SYSTEMS INC
COMMVAULT SYSTEMS INC
* ORACLE CORP
ROVI CORP
SOLERA HOLDINGS INC
* SYMANTEC CORP
TECHNOLOGY HARDWARE, STORAGE
APPLE INC
Hardware/PC related
remains weak
34
3D SYSTEMS CORP
* DIEBOLD INC
* EMC CORP/MA
HEWLETT‐PACKARD CO
LEXMARK INTERNATIONAL INC
* NCR CORPORATION
NETAPP INC
SANDISK CORP
SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY
WESTERN DIGITAL CORP
RBC Capital Markets
EARLY
OUTPERFORMANCE
ESTABLISHED
OUTPERFORMANCE
MARKET
PERFORMANCE
EARLY
UNDERPERFORMANCE
ESTABLISHED
UNDERPERFORMANCE
0
INDUSTRIALS
AEROSPACE & DEFENSE
HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL I
> TELEDYNE TECHNOLOGIES INC
TRIUMPH GROUP INC
> UNITED TECHNOLOGIES CORP
> BOEING CO/THE
GENERAL DYNAMICS CORP
* HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTR
* LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP
* NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP
ORBITAL ATK INC
ROCKWELL COLLINS INC
TEXTRON INC
KLX INC
\ RAYTHEON COMPANY
> EXPEDITORS INTL WASH INC
FEDEX CORP
C.H. ROBINSON WORLDWIDE I
* ALASKA AIR GROUP INC
* JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORP
AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP I
LENNOX INTERNATIONAL INC
MASCO CORP
SMITH (A.O.) CORP
ALLEGION PLC
B/E AEROSPACE INC
ESTERLINE TECHNOLOGIES CO
\ L‐3 COMMUNICATIONS HOLDING
PRECISION CASTPARTS CORP
Aerospace & Defense very mixed
AIR FREIGHT & LOGISTICS
Select Air Freight
AIRLINES accelerating
* UNITED PARCEL SERVICE‐CL B
\ DELTA AIR LINES INC
\ SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO
BUILDING PRODUCTS
FORTUNE BRANDS HOME & SEC
COMMERCIAL SERVICES & SUPPLI
ADT CORP/THE
RR DONNELLEY & SONS CO
CINTAS CORP
* DELUXE CORP
* HNI CORP
* REPUBLIC SERVICES INC
ROLLINS INC
* STERICYCLE INC
> WASTE CONNECTIONS INC
\ CLEAN HARBORS INC
\ WASTE MANAGEMENT INC
Commercial Services
broadly correcting
CONSTRUCTION & ENGINEERING
AECOM
> GRANITE CONSTRUCTION INC
> KBR INC
* COPART INC
* HERMAN MILLER INC
* MSA SAFETY INC
PITNEY BOWES INC
TYCO INTERNATIONAL PLC
FLUOR CORP
JACOBS ENGINEERING GROUP * QUANTA SERVICES INC
ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT
AMETEK INC
EATON CORP PLC
> REGAL BELOIT CORP
ROCKWELL AUTOMATION INC
INDUSTRIAL CONGLOMERATES
GENERAL ELECTRIC CO
ACUITY BRANDS INC
* EMERSON ELECTRIC CO
* HUBBELL INC ‐CL B
* 3M CO
CARLISLE COS INC
ROPER TECHNOLOGIES INC
MACHINERY
AGCO CORP
DEERE & CO
> IDEX CORP
NORDSON CORP
> OSHKOSH CORP
WOODWARD INC
MARINE
PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
DUN & BRADSTREET CORP
FTI CONSULTING INC
MANPOWERGROUP INC
* ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS
INGERSOLL‐RAND PLC
PALL CORP
SNAP‐ON INC
STANLEY BLACK & DECKER IN
WABTEC CORP
> CLARCOR INC
PACCAR INC
Oversold rebounds
for global cyclicals
continues
Staffing Co's
improving
* CATERPILLAR INC
CRANE CO
* CUMMINS INC
DONALDSON CO INC
DOVER CORP
FLOWSERVE CORP
* GRACO INC
* HARSCO CORP
* ITT CORP
JOY GLOBAL INC
* KENNAMETAL INC
* LINCOLN ELECTRIC HOLDINGS
* PARKER HANNIFIN CORP
PENTAIR PLC
SPX CORP
TEREX CORP
TIMKEN CO
TRINITY INDUSTRIES INC
VALMONT INDUSTRIES
XYLEM INC
KIRBY CORP
CEB INC
EQUIFAX INC
* ROBERT HALF INTL INC
> TOWERS WATSON & CO‐CL A
* NIELSEN NV
ROAD & RAIL
* CSX CORP
> HUNT (JB) TRANSPRT SVCS IN
RYDER SYSTEM INC
TRADING COMPANIES & DISTRIBU
35
WATSCO INC
> WERNER ENTERPRISES INC
Railroads and
Truckers weak but
becoming oversold
NOW INC
OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE
CON‐WAY INC
GENESEE & WYOMING INC‐CL KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN
* LANDSTAR SYSTEM INC
NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP
\ UNION PACIFIC CORP
* FASTENAL CO
* GATX CORP
* MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO‐A
* UNITED RENTALS INC
* WW GRAINGER INC
RBC Capital Markets
EARLY
OUTPERFORMANCE
ESTABLISHED
OUTPERFORMANCE
MARKET
PERFORMANCE
EARLY
UNDERPERFORMANCE
ESTABLISHED
UNDERPERFORMANCE
0
MATERIALS
CHEMICALS
> DOW CHEMICAL CO/THE
> ECOLAB INC
* AIR PRODUCTS & CHEMICALS I
* ASHLAND INC
CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS IN
CYTEC INDUSTRIES INC
* INTL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCES
> LYONDELLBASELL INDU‐CL A
* NEWMARKET CORP
PPG INDUSTRIES INC
RPM INTERNATIONAL INC
SENSIENT TECHNOLOGIES COR
* SHERWIN‐WILLIAMS CO/THE
* SIGMA‐ALDRICH
> + MINERALS TECHNOLOGIES INC
\ OLIN CORP
> POLYONE CORPORATION
‐ VALSPAR CORP/THE
DU PONT (E.I.) DE NEMOURS
Chemical performance remains
very mixed with select names
beginning to accelerate
AIRGAS INC
* ALBEMARLE CORP
CABOT CORP
* EASTMAN CHEMICAL CO
FMC CORP
MONSANTO CO
MOSAIC CO/THE
* PRAXAIR INC
\ SCOTTS MIRACLE‐GRO CO‐CL A
CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS
CONTAINERS & PACKAGING
> SONOCO PRODUCTS CO
MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS
VULCAN MATERIALS CO
EAGLE MATERIALS INC
AVERY DENNISON CORP
BALL CORP
* BEMIS COMPANY
* MEADWESTVACO CORP
* ROCK‐TENN COMPANY ‐CL A
SEALED AIR CORP
* SILGAN HOLDINGS INC
* APTARGROUP INC
* GREIF INC‐CL A
* OWENS‐ILLINOIS INC
PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA
METALS & MINING
STEEL DYNAMICS INC
\ ‐ NEWMONT MINING CORP
TIMKENSTEEL CORP
Metals and Steels quickly
pulled back to trading
support and are attempting
to rebound short-term
PAPER & FOREST PRODUCTS
> DOMTAR CORP
> LOUISIANA‐PACIFIC CORP
ALCOA INC
* ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES INC
* CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY
* COMMERCIAL METALS CO
COMPASS MINERALS INTERNAT
FREEPORT‐MCMORAN INC
* NUCOR CORP
* RELIANCE STEEL & ALUMINUM
ROYAL GOLD INC
* UNITED STATES STEEL CORP
* WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES
INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO
ENERGY
ENERGY EQUIPMENT & SERVICES
> CAMERON INTERNATIONAL CORP
> DRIL‐QUIP INC
BAKER HUGHES INC
DRESSER‐RAND GROUP INC
> SCHLUMBERGER LTD
Energy correction from
200-dmas now testing next
support near 50-dmas
OIL, GAS & CONSUMABLE FUELS
EQT CORP
> EXXON MOBIL CORP
> HOLLYFRONTIER CORP
OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP
36
CABOT OIL & GAS CORP
CIMAREX ENERGY CO
* DEVON ENERGY CORP
> ENERGEN CORP
* EOG RESOURCES INC
* KINDER MORGAN INC
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP
NEWFIELD EXPLORATION CO
PHILLIPS 66
* TESORO CORP
* VALERO ENERGY CORP
WESTERN REFINING INC
* WILLIAMS COS INC
* WORLD FUEL SERVICES CORP
‐ ANADARKO PETROLEUM CORP
CALIFORNIA RESOURCES CORP
\ CHEVRON CORP
\ CONOCOPHILLIPS
PIONEER NATURAL RESOURCES
\ SPECTRA ENERGY CORP
* ATWOOD OCEANICS INC
* DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING
* ENSCO PLC‐CL A
* FMC TECHNOLOGIES INC
* HALLIBURTON CO
* HELIX ENERGY SOLUTIONS GRO
* HELMERICH & PAYNE
* NABORS INDUSTRIES LTD
NATIONAL OILWELL VARCO IN
* NOBLE CORP PLC
OCEANEERING INTL INC
* OIL STATES INTERNATIONAL I
* PATTERSON‐UTI ENERGY INC
* ROWAN COMPANIES PLC‐A
* SUPERIOR ENERGY SERVICES I
TIDEWATER INC
* TRANSOCEAN LTD
* UNIT CORP
APACHE CORP
CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORP
CONSOL ENERGY INC
DENBURY RESOURCES INC
* GULFPORT ENERGY CORP
HESS CORP
MARATHON OIL CORP
MURPHY OIL CORP
* NOBLE ENERGY INC
ONEOK INC
PEABODY ENERGY CORP
QEP RESOURCES INC
RANGE RESOURCES CORP
* ROSETTA RESOURCES INC
SM ENERGY CO
SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY CO
* WPX ENERGY INC
RBC Capital Markets
Improving Relative Performers
Financials – Brokers begin to reaccelerate – ETFC making new real and relative highs
38
RBC Capital Markets
Financials – Reacceleration underway – Another Broker making new real and relative highs: SCHW
39
RBC Capital Markets
Financials – Regional Banks reaccelerate above 2014 highs – Relative continues to improve: SIVB
40
RBC Capital Markets
Financials – Regional Banks begin to reaccelerate – Relative leading higher: EWBC
41
RBC Capital Markets
Financials – A broad list of Banks continue to make new relative highs: KEY
42
RBC Capital Markets
Financials – Reacceleration underway – Diversified Bank breaking 1+ year relative downtrend: CMA
43
RBC Capital Markets
Financials – Reacceleration underway – Diversified Bank breaking 2-year relative downtrend: C
44
RBC Capital Markets
Financials – Insurance selectively accelerating after reversing an 18-month downtrend: AIG
45
RBC Capital Markets
Healthcare – Select Biotech still timely – GILD breaking out of 10+ month consolidation
46
RBC Capital Markets
Healthcare – Select Biotech still timely – BIIB holding 2+ year uptrend, 200-dma and 2014 highs
47
RBC Capital Markets
Healthcare – Select Biotech still timely – CELG rebounding after testing 200-dma and 1+ year uptrend
48
RBC Capital Markets
Healthcare - 2015 consolidation/pause poised to resolve to the upside – Relative performance improving
49
RBC Capital Markets
Healthcare – Equipment poised to breakout – Relative performance breaking to new 2015 highs: STJ
50
RBC Capital Markets
Healthcare – ZTS timely on its recent pullback – Note relative performance is leading to the upside
51
RBC Capital Markets
Discretionary – Retailer showing evidence of accelerating – Relative leading higher: DG
52
RBC Capital Markets
Discretionary – Select Durables accelerating – NWL breaking to new highs with relative improving
53
RBC Capital Markets
Discretionary – Select Durables accelerating – MHK breaking to new real and relative highs
54
RBC Capital Markets
Discretionary – Auto Parts continue to lead – DLPH uptrend intact & beginning to accelerate from 50-dma
55
RBC Capital Markets
Discretionary – Auto Parts continue to lead – JCI breaking out of 18+ month consolidation
56
RBC Capital Markets
Technology – IT Services beginning to accelerate – MA breaking to new real and relative highs
57
RBC Capital Markets
Technology – IT Services showing early signs of accelerating: ADS
58
RBC Capital Markets
Technology – Software name poised to breakout – ADBE testing 2015 highs with relative improving
59
RBC Capital Markets
Technology – Software poised to reaccelerate – Relative testing 2014 highs: CRM
60
RBC Capital Markets
Technology – Software poised to reaccelerate – Relative continued to improve: ORCL
61
RBC Capital Markets
Discretionary – Select acceleration patterns in Internet Retailers: NFLX
62
RBC Capital Markets
Technology – Internet-related emerging – FB accelerating from 6+ month uptrend & 200-dma
63
RBC Capital Markets
Industrials – Select names accelerating – FDX rallying from uptrend & 200-dma to new 2015 highs
64
RBC Capital Markets
Industrials – Select names accelerating – EXPD reverses 2+ year downtrend and is poised to breakout
65
RBC Capital Markets
Industrials – Select Machinery showing evidence of reversing 1-year downtrends – IEX timely
66
RBC Capital Markets
Industrials – 2015 correction beginning to show evidence of bottoming at RHI’s long-term uptrend support
67
RBC Capital Markets
Industrials – Building Products begin to accelerate – Real & relative performance breaking out: MAS
68
RBC Capital Markets
Industrials – Transports – JBHT’s correction beginning to reverse from key support
69
RBC Capital Markets
Materials – Chemicals emerging – PPG’s relative performance profile building to the upside
70
RBC Capital Markets
Materials – Chemicals emerging – LYB rallying from 50-dma with relative performance turning up
71
RBC Capital Markets
Required Disclosures
Conflicts Disclosures
This product constitutes a compendium report (covers six or more subject companies). As such, RBC Capital markets chooses to provide specific disclosures for the
subject companies by reference. To access conflict of interest and other disclosures for the subject companies, clients should refer to
https://www.rbccm.com/GLDisclosure/PublicWeb/DisclosureLookup.aspx?entityId=1. These disclosures are also available by sending a written request to RBC
Capital Markets Research Publishing, P.O. Box 50, 200 Bay Street, Royal Bank Plaza, 29th Floor, South Tower, Toronto, Ontario M5J 2W7 or an email to
[email protected].
The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received compensation that is based upon various factors, including total revenues of the member
companies of RBC Capital Markets and its affiliates, a portion of which are or have been generated by investment banking activities of the member companies of
RBC Capital Markets and its affiliates.
Distribution of Ratings
For the purpose of ratings distributions, regulatory rules require member firms to assign ratings to one of three rating categories - Buy, Hold/Neutral, or Sell regardless of a firm's own rating categories. Although RBC Capital Markets' ratings of Top Pick/Outperform, Sector Perform and Underperform most closely
correspond to Buy, Hold/Neutral and Sell, respectively, the meanings are not the same because our ratings are determined on a relative basis (as described above).
Distribution of Ratings
RBC Capital Markets, Equity Research
As of 31-Mar-2015
Investment Banking
Serv./Past 12 Mos.
Rating
Count Percent
Count Percent
BUY [Top Pick & Outperform]
909
52.33
280
30.8
HOLD [Sector Perform]
713
41.05
125
17.53
SELL [Underperform]
115
6.62
5
4.35
72
RBC Capital Markets
Required Disclosures
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RBC Capital Markets Policy for Managing Conflicts of Interest in Relation to Investment Research is available from us on request. To access our current policy,
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may also receive our research via third party vendors. RBC Capital Markets also provides eligible clients with access to SPARC on the Firm’s proprietary INSIGHT
website, via email and via third-party vendors. SPARC contains market color and commentary regarding subject companies on which the Firm currently provides
equity research coverage. Research Analysts may, from time to time, include short-term trade ideas in research reports and / or in SPARC. A short-term trade idea
offers a short-term view on how a security may trade, based on market and trading events, and the resulting trading opportunity that may be available. A short-term
trade idea may differ from the price targets and recommendations in our published research reports reflecting the research analyst's views of the longer-term (one
year) prospects of the subject company, as a result of the differing time horizons, methodologies and/or other factors. Thus, it is possible that a subject company's
common equity that is considered a long-term 'Sector Perform' or even an 'Underperform' might present a short-term buying opportunity as a result of temporary
selling pressure in the market; conversely, a subject company's common equity rated a long-term 'Outperform' could be considered susceptible to a short-term
downward price correction. Short-term trade ideas are not ratings, nor are they part of any ratings system, and the firm generally does not intend, nor undertakes any
obligation, to maintain or update short-term trade ideas. Short-term trade ideas may not be suitable for all investors and have not been tailored to individual investor
circumstances and objectives, and investors should make their own independent decisions regarding any securities or strategies discussed herein. Please contact
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All of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the responsible analyst(s) about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No
part of the compensation of the responsible analyst(s) named herein is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by
the responsible analyst(s) in this report.
73
RBC Capital Markets
Disclaimer
The Global Industry Classification Standard (“GICS”) was developed by and is the exclusive property and a service mark of MSCI Inc. (“MSCI”) and Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (“S&P”) and is licensed for use by RBC.
Neither MSCI, S&P, nor any other party involved in making or compiling the GICS or any GICS classifications makes any express or implied warranties or representations with respect to such standard or classification (or the results to
be obtained by the use thereof), and all such parties hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of such standard or
classification. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, S&P, any of their affiliates or any third party involved in making or compiling the GICS or any GICS classifications have any liability for any direct, indirect,
special, punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages.
This comment is prepared by the Technical Research team in RBC Capital Markets' Research Department. All views expressed are the opinions of Technical Research based solely on the historical
technical behavior (price and volume) and their expectations of the most likely direction of a market or security. Technical Research opinions and recommendations may differ from the opinions,
recommendations and / or ratings of RBC Capital Markets' fundamental equity and other research products. Fundamental equity research is available from your RBC Capital Markets salesperson.
Opinions and recommendations in Technical Research could result in short-term price movements that are contrary to the recommendations and/or ratings in fundamental equity research.
RBC Capital Markets is the business name used by certain branches and subsidiaries of the Royal Bank of Canada, including RBC Dominion Securities Inc., RBC Capital Markets, LLC, RBC Europe
Limited, RBC Capital Markets (Hong Kong) Limited, Royal Bank of Canada, Hong Kong Branch and Royal Bank of Canada, Sydney Branch. The information contained in this report has been compiled by
RBC Capital Markets from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Royal Bank of Canada, RBC Capital Markets, its affiliates or any other person
as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All opinions and estimates contained in this report constitute RBC Capital Markets' judgement as of the date of this report, are subject to change without
notice and are provided in good faith but without legal responsibility. Nothing in this report constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice or individually tailored investment advice. This material is prepared for
general circulation to clients and has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. The investments or services contained in this report
may not be suitable for you and it is recommended that you consult an independent investment advisor if you are in doubt about the suitability of such investments or services. This report is not an offer to
sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. RBC Capital Markets
research analyst compensation is based in part on the overall profitability of RBC Capital Markets, which includes profits attributable to investment banking revenues. Every province in Canada, state in the
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regulatory restrictions and/ or internal compliance policies. If this is the case, the latest published research reports available to clients may not reflect recent material changes in the applicable industry
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report and its dissemination in the United States. Any U.S. recipient of this report that is not a registered broker-dealer or a bank acting in a broker or dealer capacity and that wishes further information
regarding, or to effect any transaction in, any of the securities discussed in this report, should contact and place orders with RBC Capital Markets, LLC.
To Canadian Residents: This publication has been approved by RBC Dominion Securities Inc.(member IIROC). Any Canadian recipient of this report that is not a Designated Institution in Ontario, an
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RBC Capital Markets
Disclaimer
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Copyright © RBC Capital Markets, LLC 2015 - Member SIPC
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75
RBC Capital Markets

Stocks Approaching Secular Highs vs. Bonds

Transcription

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