Kapitalmarknadsdag 2011 presentation

Transcription

Lundin Petroleum
Capital
Market
Day
Stockholm, 1st February 2011
Lundin Petroleum Capital Market Day
notes
February 2011
2
Disclaimer
DISCLAIMER
Certain statements made in this presentation involve a number of risks and uncertainties
that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. Certain statements
relating to Lundin Petroleum’s business and operations are based on management’s
expectations, estimates and projections. These statements are not guarantees of future
performance and involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict.
Certain statements are based upon assumptions as to future events that may not prove to
be accurate. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is
expressed or forecasted in such statements. Lundin Petroleum makes no commitment, and
disclaims any duty, to update or revise any of these statements.
This presentation is for informational purposes only and is not intended as a solicitation or
offering of securities in any jurisdiction. The information contained in this presentation is not
intended to qualify, supplement or amend information disclosed under corporate and securities
legislation of any jurisdiction applicable to Lundin Petroleum and should not be relied upon for
the purpose of making investment decisions concerning any securities of Lundin Petroleum.
WF8278
notes
3
Agenda
Introduction
Ashley Heppenstall, President and CEO
2010 Financial Performance
Geoff Turbott, Vice President Finance and CFO
Production, Development and Resources
Chris Bruijnzeels, Senior Vice President Operations
Exploration
Alex Schneiter, Executive Vice President and COO
Torstein Sanness, General Manager Norway
2011 Financial Overview
Geoff Turbott, Vice President Finance and CFO
Summary
Ashley Heppenstall, President and CEO
WF11207
notes
Capital Market Day - February 2011
4
Introduction
Capital Market Day
February 2011
WF11207
notes
5
2010 - A Defining Year for Lundin Petroleum
Value Crystallisation
Spin-off of UK business into Enquest
Spin-off of shareholding in Etrion
Sale of non-core Indonesia production assets
Exploration success in Norway
Avaldsnes and Apollo discoveries in Greater Luno area
Strong reserve growth
Reserve replacement ratio ~ 240%
Luno reserve upgrade
Solid production and cash flow
32,700 boepd production. Upper end of guidance
Operating cash flow and EBITDA > USD 600 million
WF11215 p1 01.11
notes
February 2011
6
2011 - Continued Growth
Exploration focus to continue
21 wells. Budget ~USD 300 million
5 well appraisal and exploration programme in the Greater Luno Area
Drilling to commence in the Barents Sea
5 exploration wells in Malaysia
Development activity to increase
Luno and Nemo Plan of Development submissions
Krabbe and Marihøne conceptual development planning
Production to increase
Production guidance 28-33,000 boepd. Close to 10 percent annual increase
Gaupe onstream
Production to double by 2015
Strong balance sheet and operating cash flow to fund continued growth
WF11215 p2 01.11
notes
7
Asset Overview
Norway
Three Core Areas: Europe, Russia, SE Asia
- 18,200 boepd (1)
- Reserves (2): 139.2 MMboe
- 10 exploration/appraisal
wells in 2011
Ireland
1 exploration licence
Russia
- 3,600 boepd (1)
Netherlands
- 2,050 boepd (1)
France
- 3,200 boepd (1)
Vietnam
Tunisia
- 1 exploration licence
- 1,000 boepd
Malaysia
Congo (Brazzaville)
- 2 exploration well
in 2011
- 5 exploration wells
in 2011
Indonesia
- 2,400 boepd (1)
TOTAL
2010 production: 32,700 boepd (1)
2P reserves: 186.7 MMboe (2)
Contingent resources: 259 MMboe
WF11013 p1 01.11
notes
(1)
2010 Production Forecast
(2 )
End 2010 Reserves
8
2010 Financial Performance
Capital Market Day
February 2011
WF11207
notes
9
2010 Forecast Cash Margin Netback [USD/boe]
Excluding UK
Forecast
2010
79.50
CMD
Jan 10
Revenue
70.95
51.45
Cost of operations
Tariffs
Production taxes
Stock movement
Other
-8.65
-1.55
-3.75
0.30
-0.40
-10.05
-1.10
-2.90
0.90
-0.25
Cash Margin Netback
56.90
38.05
Brent oil price
WF11208 p3 01.11
notes
60.00
February 2011
10
2010 Forecast Cost of Operations
Excluding UK
73.00
2010 CMD
2010 Forecast
40
38.90
40
30
24.35
20
Netherlands
Indonesia
Tunisia
10.05
8.65
6.95
10
3.15
5.05
France
8.65
17.75
14.05
10
11.40
17.45
16.60
20
0
USD/boe
USD/boe
30
Norway
Russia
LUPE Average
0
WF11208 p6 01.11
notes
11
2010 Forecast Quarterly Operating Cost
Excluding UK
Operating Cost (USD per boe)
Cost of operations
Tariff and transportation expenses
Royalty and direct taxes
Other
Total production costs
Changes in inventory/overlift
Total operating cost
WF11208 p13 01.11
notes
Q1
Actual
Q2
Actual
Q3
Actual
Q4
Forecast
2010
Forecast
8.59
1.17
4.38
0.28
14.42
8.48
1.48
3.89
0.19
14.04
7.55
1.65
3.44
0.18
12.82
9.90
1.90
3.35
0.85
16.00
8.65
1.55
3.75
0.40
14.35
1.74
2.78
-5.26
0.10
-0.30
16.16
16.82
7.56
16.10
14.05
12
2010 Forecast Exploration Costs
2010
Forecast
MUSD
Q4 2010
Forecast
MUSD
Q4 2010
Forecast
after Tax
MUSD
Norway: PL476 Frusalen, PL359 Luno High,
95
61
13
Vietnam: 2 wells
Other
32
1
0
0
0
0
Exploration Costs
128
61
13
PL400 Barchan, PL409 Norall
WF11208 p7 01.11
notes
13
2010 Forecast Operating Cash Flow Netback [USD/boe]
Excluding UK
2010
Forecast
WF11208 p12 01.11
notes
Cash Margin Netback
Cash taxes
Operating Cash Flow Netback
56.90
-6.10
50.80
Development Capex
Exploration Capex
12.65
20.35
February 2011
14
2010 Forecast Taxation
Excluding UK
USD/boe
Current tax charge
6.10
Deferred tax charge
16.50
22.60
WF11208 p10 01.11
notes
15
Effective Forecast Tax Rate Reconciliation
Excluding UK
2010 effective tax rate:
66%
Gain on sale of Etrion
Gain on sale of Salawatis
2010 effective tax rate excluding one-off items:
80%
General & administrative
Financial items
2010 operational tax rate:
WF11208 p11 01.11
notes
68%
16
2010 Forecast EBITDA [USD/boe]
Excluding UK
2010
Forecast
Cash Margin Netback
General & Administrative
EBITDA
56.90
-3.70*
53.20
* Includes USD/boe 1.05 of Etrion G&A
WF11208 p15 01.11
notes
17
2010 Forecast Other Items
Spin-off of UK into EnQuest (Q2)
UK business spin-off in consideration for 422 million EnQuest shares
MUSD 358 Gain on sale (non-taxable)
EnQuest shares distributed to LUPE Shareholders (1.374:1)
Etrion distribution (Q4)
Etrion shares distributed to LUPE Shareholders (0.2283:1)
Sale of Salawatis, Indonesia (Q4)
Effective date 1 January 2010
Completed December 2010
WF11208 p9 01.11
notes
February 2011
18
Liquidity
MUSD
Total Credit Facility
850
Borrowing Base Loan Drawn @ 31 December 2010
459
Cash Balances @ 31 December 2010
Net Debt Position @ 31 December 2010
49
410
WF11209 p12 01.11
notes
19
2010 Forecast Cash Flow / Liquidity
Includes UK for Q1 10 only
+100
OPERATING
CASH FLOW
MUSD 600
MUSD
0
DEVELOPMENT
MUSD 160
100
200
300
EXPLORATION
MUSD 225
WORKING CAPITAL
MUSD 52
G&A MUSD 15
FINANCIAL MUSD 15
400
ETRION FUNDING
MUSD 74
500
OPENING LOAN
1 Jan 2010
MUSD 544
600
WF10991 p7 09.10
notes
PURCHASE OWN SHARES
MUSD 11
CLOSING LOAN
31 Dec 2010
MUSD 459
SALE OF SALAWATIS
MUSD 37
20
Production, Development and Resources
Capital Market Day
February 2011
WF11207
notes
21
Proven & Probable Reserves
Gas 16%
Tunisia
0.5
Russia
16.7
Alvheim
29.4
France
22.3
Volund
13.2
Indonesia
4.3
Nemo
10.2
Netherlands
3.6
Gaupe
12.5
Luno
73.9
Norway
139.2
Oil 84%
PSC 2%
Tax Royalty
98%
Total 186.7 MMboe
End 2009 MMboe
- Produced (forecast)
+ New Reserves (excl sales/acquisitions)
- Sales
255.9
11.9
28.3
85.5
End 2010 MMboe
186.7
2010 Reserves Replacement Ratio 237%
2010 Increase in Reserves
WF11210 p1 01.11
notes
18%
Oil Price (Brent) USD 85/bbl flat + 2% escalation on oil price and costs
February 2011
22
Reserves Growth
383% reserves increase in Norway
MMboe
No decline in French reserves
200
200
150
150
100
100
Russia
Norway
Tunisia
Netherlands
Indonesia
50
50
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
France
0
(end of year)
Excludes divested assets
WF11210 p2 01.11
notes
23
Reserves Changes
Luno, Alvheim, Gaupe and Nemo Reserves upgrade. Peik moved from Reserves to Contingent Resources
Produced in 2010
Net Replacement
Russia
Tunisia
Norway
Netherlands
Indonesia
France
-10
-5
0
5
10
MMboe
WF11210 p3 01.11
notes
15
20
25
30
24
Contingent Resources
Gas 10%
Total 259.2 MMboe
Oil 90%
Russia
110.1
Avaldsnes
80.1
Norway
139.9
Apollo
17.5
Others
32.5
Krabbe
9.8
France
7.3
Indonesia
1.9
WF11210 p4 01.11
End year 2010
notes
25
Historic Contingent Resources
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
MMBoe
Russia
Indonesia
100
100
50
50
0
WF11210 p5 01.11
notes
Congo
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0
(end of year)
France
Norway
February 2011
26
2011 Development Work Programme and Budget
RUSSIA
- Komi drilling
NORWAY
ALVHEIM
- Drill Phase 2 (3 wells)
FRANCE
GRANDVILLE
- 7 development wells
- Facilities
GAUPE
- Drill 2 producers
- Install subsea facilities
- First oil Q4
VILLESENEUX
- 1 development well
LUNO/NEMO
- PDO preparation
NETHERLANDS
- Development drilling
2011 Forecast 240 MUSD
Other, 21
INDONESIA
- Singa development well
France, 42
Norway, 177
WF11211 p3 01.11
notes
27
2010 Production Performance
France
3,200 boepd
Netherlands
2,050 boepd
Norway
18,200 boepd
Indonesia
2,400 boepd
Russia
3,600 boepd
2010 forecast: 32,700 boepd
Tunisia
1,000 boepd
40
40
35,900 boepd
35
notes
35
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
WF11211 p1 01.11
32,500 boepd
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0
incl. UK Q1 2010
Thousand boepd net
30
UK
32,100 boepd
30,200 boepd
UK
2,250 boepd
High
Low
CMD guidance 2010
28
2011 Production Guidance
France
11%
2011 production guidance 28,000 - 33,000 boepd
2010 production excluding divested
assets 28,400 boepd
Norway - production factors
Netherlands
8%
Minimum Volund contracted capacity is 25,000 bopd
FPSO uptime
Gaupe startup Q4
SAGE shutdown
Russia
11%
Tunisia
3%
40
35
35
30
30
25
Gaupe production start-up
20
20
SAGE Shutdown
15
15
10
CMD Low
5
0
10
CMD High
Q1
Thousand boepd net
40
25
Norway
64%
Indonesia
3%
5
Q2
Q3
0
Q4
WF11211 p2 01.11
notes
29
Norway - Production 2011
Alvheim Field
Alvheim
Volund
Lundin Petroleum 15%
Marathon 65% (Operator), Conoco Phillips 20%
Gross ultimate recovery 276 MMboe
Phase 2 drilling ongoing
Norway
0026
Sweden
25
Mapped area
24
Volund Field
Marathon 65% (Operator)
Gross ultimate recovery 43 MMboe
3 producers, 1 injector onstream
Gaupe Field
15
BG 60% (Operator)
Gross reserves 31 MMboe
Subsea tie back to Armada field
First production Q4 2011
16
17
Norway
0
Gaupe
WF11212 p1 01.11
notes
06
KM
25
Lundin Operator
Lundin Partner
APA 2010
February 2011
30
Norway Production - Alvheim Field
Marathon 65%, ConocoPhillips 20%
Gross 2P reserves 196 MMboe
2010 Production at 12,900 boepd net - 8% above forecast
Costs of operations USD 3.5/boe for 2010
Drilling Phase 2
Three Phase 2 wells to be completed
in mid 2011
EKAM 02
BOA 12
East Kameleon
EKAM 03
Boa
Phase 3 Drilling
BOA 11
Upside
Drilling Phase 3
- Potential for additional infill wells
- No reserves carried for Phase 3
EKAM 01
Potential for add
KAM 02
KAM 03
Kameleon
BOA 09
KN 03
KN 02
KAM 01
Other tie-in opportunities
Kneler
KN 06
KN 07
Drilled Development Wells
KN 05
Phase 2 Targets
Phase 3 Drilling Area
WF11213 p1 01.11
notes
31
Alvheim Reserve Growth
Cumulative Production
Alvheim net Lundin 2P reserves
40
End of Year Reserves
40
65% increase in reserves
Hydrocarbon Volume [MMboe]
35
2.3
32.2
30
25
33.4
7.3
29.7
28.4
12.0
29.4
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Alvheim field latest 2P (gross) ultimate recovery : 276 MMboe
notes
30
25
25.1
0
WF11213 p2 01.11
35
32
Norway Production - Volund Field
Volund Field
Marathon 65% (operator)
Injector
Producers
Gross 2P reserves 38 MMboe
Strong production
Q4 2010 gross production of 27,700 boepd
Minimum contracted production capacity 25,000 bopd gross
Operating Cost
Less 6.5 USD/boe for 2011 of which
3 USD/boe is tariff to Alvheim
WF10969 p4 01.11
notes
33
PL292 Gaupe Development
29c
BG Norge 60% (operator)
016
12a
7
10a
15/12-19
12d
PL292
6/3-1
SEYMOUR
3
5aF1
5b
5bF1
10
3
14
4aF1
Plateau production ~ 5,000 boepd net
12c
Gaupe Field
Armada
Fields
First production Q4 2011
022
12
8
4
0006
0007
2
4c
7
1
2
4a
11
Operating cost 9 USD/boe
0016
12f
REV
12e
29aE
PDO approved in June 2010
8
0015/12 (Area 8)
PL292b
9
1
10b
0015
12g
29aF1
2P gross reserves of 31.3 MMboe
Subsea tie-back to Armada (BG operated)
in UK
15
29cF1
Norway
UK
13
5c
5a
6
4b
9
WF10770c 01.11
notes
10a
10b
0
6
KM
5
February 2011
34
Increase of Production
Avaldsnes
Apollo
Luno
Onstream
+100%
increase
in
production
2010
Forecast
28-33,000
28,400
boepd
Gaupe
Onstream
Marihone
Nemo Onstream
Onstream
Krabbe
Onstream
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
(excluding divested interests)
WF10925 p7 01.11
notes
35
Norway - New Developments
Nemo (PL148)
Reserves : 10.2 MMboe
First Oil: 2013
Plateau Production: 6,000 boepd
Marihøne (PL340)
Contingent Resources : 3 MMboe
First Oil: 2013/2014
Krabbe (PL301)
Contingent Resources : 9.8 MMboe
First Oil: 2014
0027
0026
Marihøne
Norway
Sweden
24
Mapped area
Apollo
Luno
Avaldsnes
15
16
18
17
Norway
Luno (PL338)
Reserves: 73.9 MMboe
First Oil: 2014/15
Plateau Production 30,000 boepd+
06
Avaldsnes (PL501)
Contingent Resources : 100 - 400 MMboe
To be appraised
Apollo (PL338)
Contingent Resources : 15 - 65 MMboe
To be appraised
WF11014 p3 01.11
notes
Nemo
Krabbe
07
09
08
0
KM
25
Lundin Operator
Lundin Partner
APA 2010
36
Greater Luno Area - Luno Field
Lundin Petroleum interest: 50% (operator)
Wintershall 30%, RWE 20%
PL304
Oil
Gas
KM
0
20
PL546
Subsurface work completed
Certified 2P reserves of 148 MMboe gross
Plateau production forecast >60,000
boepd gross
PL501
Draupne
Luno Field
Stand alone development substantially
completed
Flexibility with respect to export options
Ready to submit PDO in 2011
First oil 2014/15
16/2-6
Luno South
PL338
Ragnarrock
PL501B
PL265
PL502
Avaldsnes
PL359
Joint Luno/Draupne development
studies ongoing
Decision end Q1 2011
0015
PL544
0016
Lundin Petroleum Operator
Lundin Petroleum Partner
PL410
Capacity for area development
Irrespective of development option
WF10018 p3 12.10
notes
37
Greater Luno Area - Luno Development
Luno Subsurface Development
Central drilling location
9 producers (3 horizontals)
3 water injectors
Water Injectors
Apollo
Luno Field
Luno South
WF11115 p3 01.11
notes
Oil Producers
Tellus
February 2011
38
Greater Luno Area - Luno Development
Luno stand alone development
concept
Dry wellheads
Oil export to Grane
or offshore loading
Flexibility regarding oil/gas export
Gas export to Sleipner,
Sage or Alvheim
WF10766 p12 01.11
notes
39
Norway - Nemo Development
Talisman 30%, Noreco 20%
Subsurface development concept complete
2P reserves 20.4 MMboe gross
2 producers, 1 injector
Appraisal pilot hole to test upside
Surface development concept complete
Subsea tie back to Pierce FPSO (Shell operated)
Tender completed and heads of agreement signed
Commercial discussions with Shell ongoing
PDO submission 2011
First oil 2013
WF10986 p4 01.11
notes
Producer
Producer
Injector
40
Norway - Krabbe Development
Skeie 60%
KM
0
PL292
10
Subsurface development concept substantially
completed
Contingent resources 24.5 MMboe gross
2 producers, 1 injector
NORWAY
PL495
Nemo 07
Surface development studies ongoing
Subsea tie back to Pierce FPSO (Shell operated)
PL148
PL148
35km
Commercial discussions with Shell ongoing
Concept selection 2011
PL301D
First Oil 2014
Krabbe
km
20
Pierce
(UK)
PL301
Ula
Mime
COD
WF10986 p5 01.11
notes
41
Marihøne Development
APA 2010
PL088
PL088
9/14a-6
0
PL413
KM
4
9/15a-1
PL036C
PL088 bs
P090
PL088 BS
Lundin Petroleum interest: 15%
Marathon 65% (Operator), ConocoPhillips 20%
UK
PEIK
9/15a-2
24/6-1
PL036C
PL088
HEIMDAL
24/6-3
PL088 BS
9/15b-3
9/15b-4
24/6-2
Contingent resources 20 MMboe gross
009
ALVHEIM
P1283
25/4-7
PL203
0025
Tie-back to Alvheim
25/4-8
25/4-3
GEKKO
9/14b-2B
9/19-12
0024
25/7-5
25/7-6
24/9-5
24/9-6
VOLUND
Concept selection mid 2011
PL150B
First oil end 2013
PL340
28km
PL150
PL203
Norway
PL505BS
PL547S
PL340
SKENE
24/9-4
GAMMA
PL505
Marihøne A
Discovery
PL340BS
WF11075 p1 01.11
notes
Caterpillar
Prospect
February 2011
42
Norway - Production Growth
Avaldsnes
Apollo
30,000 boepd
Luno
Krabbe
Marihøne
Nemo
Volund
Gaupe
15,000 boepd
Alvheim
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
WF10890 p1 01.11
notes
43
France - Growth Potential
Reims
Plivot
La Motte Noire
Major operated portfolio
Production: 3,000+ boepd
2P reserves: 22.3 MMboe
Stable low decline production
Pays du
Saulnois
Vert-la-Gravelle
Fontaine-au-Bron
Paris
Est Champagne
Villeperdue
Val-desMarais
Merisier
Soudron
Nancy
Courdemanges
Dommartin Lettrée
Grandville
Oil field
Nemours
Production licence
Exploration licence
0
Attractive fiscal regime
33% corporation tax
Contingent resources 7.3 MMboe
Large acreage position
Paris Basin 1.1 million net acres
Plaines du Languedoc 0.6 million net acres
Exploration potential
Shale oil option value
Paris Basin
0
KM
10
Carret
Courbey
Les Pins
Les Mimosas
AQUITAINE
France
Les Arbousiers
Les Tamaris
Oil field
Production licence
Exploration licence
Aquitaine Basin
Nimes
Plaines du Languedoc
Plaines du Languedoc
Montpellier
Béziers
Carcassone
Narbonne
Gulf of Lion
Exploration licence
WF11015 p1 06.10
notes
0
KM
40
KM
40
44
France – Contingent Resources
Paris Basin (4.8 MMboe net)
Re-development existing fields
Infill Villeperdue
Grandville additional development
Aquitaine (2.6 MMboe net)
Re-development Courbey field
- Only 10% recovery factor
Multi Frac technology
Apply shale oil technology in existing low permeability fields
Upside to Contingent Resources not yet evaluated
WF11015 p2 01.11
notes
45
France - Paris Basin Shale Oil Potential
Shale Oil
Oil contained in low / impermeable source rock or associated “reservoir”
The source rock is mature
Oil remains in situ – migration to a conventional reservoir has not occurred
Oil is recoverable via dense horizontal drilling and multi-fraccing technology
Development possibilities (Bakken analogues)
Naturally fractured shales
- Over pressures
- Fault/fracture zones
Low permeable reservoir directly associated with source rock
- Banc de Roc
- Lower Sinemurian carbonates
Strategraphic/structural traps in low permeable reservoirs
- Banc de Roc
- Rhaetian
WF11015 p3 01.11
notes
February 2011
46
France, Paris Basin - Shale Oil Potential
Licences
Others
Lundin
Toreador
Vermillion REP
Other
Lundin
application
Toreador
applications
Vermillion REP
applications
Wells chosen for
Shale Oil Study
Urban areas
Troyes
Lotharingian Shale
LRD_1
Nanteuil
10
KM
40
GRP_1
Est Champagne
E
US
ME
Schist
es C
a
T max 435°
Fere en Tardenois
0
Lotharingian S
hale
AISNE
Main cities
rto
n
Reims
DN_1
BSF_1/G
PRO_1
L'Oureq
E
OIS
Fere en Tardenois
Plivot
Montmort-Lucy
Chateau-Thierry
Mary sur Marne
Meaux
DRN_1
MTL_1
DPR_1
VIN_1
BEB_1
Chevry
RNE
MA
Plaisir
CPG_1
MEZ_1
CGY_1
CFX_1
Coulommiers
VPU P_1
VGR_1/G
CHO_1
Leudon-en-Brie
SGA_1
Vert-le-Grand
Itteville
VAX_101
TSN_101
iste
Sch
s
rt
Ca
on
RAC_1
SJS_1
Donnemarie
BRM_1
NemoursG
IN
LO
FDB_1
Nangis
BOE_1
Cheroy
FRS_1
arto n
istes C
Sch
Sens
VM_126
435°
NN
E
GUI_1
BOA_1
GRI_1
CHR_101
CL_1
0
Maisoncelles
ABE_1
VSY_101
CPY_1
a
Loth
e
n Shal
gia
ri n
0
Rigny-le-Ferron
Lotharingian
Source Rock limit
Tma
x
MTP_1
Troyes
LLY_1
YO
EPI_1
FNM_1
Grandville
Sezanne
BAR_1
EST_1
St-Dizier
St-DIzier
DOE_3
Bremonderie
LPP_1
HLH_1
AUB
Courdemanges
GV_109
AUBE
St-Just-en-Brie
LXT_1
LQB_1
LHE_1
MSG_1
TAL_2
Valence-en-Brie
CDM_1
LMT_1
MOG_1
HIN
UR
A
AL
NE
CAN A MAR
L
DE
E
TOA_1
Nogent-sur-Seine
Maisoncelles
Mairy
LFP_1
SY_101
Dommartin-Lettree
LNT_1
Merisier
Leudon
JAY_1
Vulaines
SMM_1
5
Rozay en Brie
Val-des-Marais
TGR_1
43
VLG_1
CQL_1
Chaunoy
ESY_1
CHN_1
Champotran
Champrose
LST_1
CER_102
SLP_1 CNT_1
MRY_1
BYL_2
SDN_101
LVV_1
DML_3
PMR_1
CPN_1
Villeperdue
AZ_1
VLY_1
Soudron
Vert-la-Gravelle
Malnoue
MLN_1
E
CVG_1
La Motte Noire
LSY_1
Fontaine-au-Bron W&S
IN
Chalons-sur-Champagne
AVE_1
LUC_1/G
TR_1
Paris
SE
LVX_1
Chailley
LCR_1
Aufferville
NCON
AMY_101
Orleans
WF11205 p6 01.11
E
IR
LO
ARMA
Joigny
Lundin Petroleum 1.1 million net acres in Paris Basin
Courtenay
CANAL NS
EA
D’ORL
notes
47
Russia - Lagansky - Morskaya Discovery
0
KM
20
Lundin
Concession
Oil Field
Northern Caspian
Petrovskaya-1
Laganskaya-1
Gas Field
Morskaya Discovery
Morskaya-1
COC well
Rakushechnoye Field
4.4 TCF
Viktor Filanovski
600 MMbbls
1.2 TCF
Lagansky Block
Rak-4
Rak-1
Rak-2
Yuri Korchagin
Lundin Petroleum working interest 70% - Gunvor 30%
Drilled 3 exploration wells
Morskaya discovery in 2008
3D seismic in 2009 2010
157 MMboe gross contingent resources on block
Discussions with state owned companies ongoing to fulfil Foreign Strategic Investment Law
WF10896 p2 01.11
notes
48
Russia - Lagansky Exploration
Exploration Prospects
K
C
LO
Morskaya Discovery
YB
SK
N
GA
LA
WF10896 p18 10.10
notes
49
Exploration
WF11207
notes
Capital Market Day
February 2011
February 2011
50
Exploration Strategy
Objectives
Organic Growth
Focus on building “core” exploration areas and countries
Criteria
Explore within proven petroleum systems
Focus on under-explored areas
Strategy
Improved technical understanding and develop new plays
Application of 3D seismic for exploration
Acquire acreage with Lundin operationship and seek strategic partner(s)
where appropriate
WF11220 p1 01.11
notes
51
Exploration Licence Activity 2011
NORWAY
- 10 wells (including 5 in the
Greater Luno Area and 2 in the
Barents Sea Area)
- 3D seismic
NETHERLANDS
MALAYSIA
CONGO (Brazzaville)
INDONESIA
- Preparation to resume drilling
activities in 2012
- 2D seismic
21 exploration wells
targeting potential net unrisked
resources of 483 MMboe
WF11144 p5 11.10
notes
52
2011 Budget Exploration Expenditure MUSD
Others,15
Norway - Greater Alvheim Area, 35
Congo Brazzaville, 15
Malaysia , 58
Norway - Greater Luno Area, 116
2011
Budget
Drilling
Seismic/G&G
Other
Total
Norway - Others, 34
Norway - Barents Sea, 32
Norway
216.0
60.0
29.0
305.0
71%
WF11146 p8 11.10
notes
53
Targeted Prospective Resources – 2011 Drilling
2011 exploration drilling - 21 wells
10 wells in Norway
5 wells in Malaysia
4 wells in Netherlands
2 wells in Congo (Brazzaville)
LUPE 2011 Net Unrisked
Exploration Targets
Netherlands, 3
Congo (Brazzaville), 20
2011 drilling is targetting net prospective
resources of 483 MMboe
Malaysia, 136
Norway(1), 324
WF10880 p3 01.11
notes
(1)
Prospective numbers exclude upside in Avaldsnes
February 2011
54
Norway
Leading the way
Capital Market Day
February 2011
WF11207
notes
55
Norway - Licence History
Major position built through organic growth
50
Norway number of licences
Includes 10 new awarded
APA 2010 licences
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
WF10757a 01.10
notes
11
20
10
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
20
03
0
56
Norway - Exploration
3 Key Areas
Greater Luno Area
Barents Sea Area
Barents Sea Area
Greater Alvheim Area
Greater Luno Area
2010 APA award
WF10757b 03.10
notes
57
Norway Exploration - 2011 Exploration WP & Budget
10 exploration wells
Greater Luno Area
Total: MUSD 116
5 wells (3 appraisal + 2 expl. wells)
Barents Sea Area
Total: MUSD 35
2 wells
Barents Sea Area
Total: MUSD 32
2 wells
Others
Total: MUSD 34
1 well
Greater Luno Area
Norway Total: MUSD 217
(71% of total 2011 exploration budget)
2010 APA award
WF10538 11.10
notes
February 2011
58
Lundin Norway Rig Capacity
Transocean Winner
Bredford Dolphin
Transocean Arctic
Rigs secured for all 2011 proposed drilling prospects
WF11217 p2 01.11
notes
59
Norway - Proven Track Record
Exploration capex
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
2006
18
Commercial Discoveries up to End 2010
7
600 (1)
Finding Cost USD/boe
2.9
Finding Cost USD/boe - post tax
0.6
Success Rate (commercial successes)
(1)
notes
2005
Exploration Wells Drilled up to End 2010
Cumulative E&A Spend up to End 2010, MMUSD
WF10757 p2 d 03.10
2004
Includes USD 130 Million investment in 3D Seismic
39%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Budget
Volund, Luno, Gaupe, Marihøne, Viper,
Avaldsnes, Apollo
0
MUSD
MUSD
Development capex
60
Norway - Significant Oil Discoveries in the Last 5 Years
Significant Oil discoveries on NSC
250
MMbbl
200
150
100
50
Da
Be
8/1 ta
0-1
4"
As
ter
o
Ap
oll
o
60
"6
Av
gn alds
n
y/E
rm es
int
rud
e
Lu
Go no
lia
td
ee
p
Jor
db
ær
Ma
r
D r ia
au
pn
Gr e
ev
lin
Gr g
os
be
ak
0
Lundin Petroleum operated
(Greater Luno Area)
WF11158 p4 11.10
notes
61
Greater Luno Area
WF11207
notes
February 2011
62
Greater Luno Area
Oil
Gas
Prospect
Lead
PL304
LundinPetroleum Operator
LundinPetroleum Partner
2010 APA Award
Tellus Prospect
Prospective resources gross: 40 MMboe
PL546
Drilling: ongoing
Draupne
PL501
Torvastad Prospect
Apollo discovery
Contingent resource range: 15-65 MMboe
Aldous Major North Prospect
Prospective resources gross: 110-260 MMboe
Luno discovery
2P reserves: 148 MMboe
PDO submission 2011
Aldous Major South
Prospective resources gross: 160-360 MMboe
16/2-6
Luno South
Ragnarrock
PL338
PL265
PL410
PL502
PL359
0015
PL544
Avaldsnes discovery
Contingent resource gross:
100-400 MMboe (on block).
Appraisal drilling to start in
March 2011
0016
0
KM
20
2 exploration wells and 3 appraisal wells to be drilled in 2011
WF11111 p12 11.10
notes
63
Greater Luno Area - Avaldsnes Discovery
Avaldsnes discovery
17 metres excellent quality
Jurassic sandstone reservoir
Main flow 5,000 bopd
on a 52/64” choke
Limited by DST tubing
Test permeability >10 darcies
No water
Radius of investigation 2,110m
Comprehensive coring and
logging programme
WF11111 p1 12.10
notes
Apollo
64
Avaldsnes Discovery
PL546 (60%)
PL501 (40%)
Gross Contingent Resources
on block 100-400 MMboe
Geological model assumes
no Jurassic reservoir in white area
16/2-6
Upside
(33m Jurassic Gross Thickness)
Triassic
pinchout ?
Rotliegendes
potential
PL265 (10%)
16/3-2
PL502
- Jurassic reservoir over white area
- Rotliengendes/triassic reservoir
OWC
1922 mss
PL410 (70%)
PL501B (40%)
2010 APA Award
WF11111 p10 01.11
notes
65
Norway Exploration - Avaldsnes Discovery - Further Upside
Torvastad prospect
PL546
PL501
Avaldsnes post-drill
Contingent resource gross
100-400 MMboe (on block)
Aldous Major North
Prospective resources gross
(unrisked): 110-260 MMboe
16/2-6
(33m Jurassic
Gross Thickness)
Aldous Major South (PL265)
Prospective resources gross
(unrisked) 160-360 MMboe
16/2-7 appr.
PL265
PL502
PL410
WF11111 p13 11.10
notes
16/3-4 appr.
Triassic
pinchout ?
Rotliegendes
potential
16/3-2
OWC
1922 mss
PL501B
PL501
Avaldsnes drilling to commence
in March 2011
1st appraisal (16/3-4)
2nd appraisal (16/2-7)
Additional prospectivity in
Torvastad prospect in PL501
PL265
Aldous Major North and
Aldous Major South wells
in 2011. Drilling start up
mid year 2011
February 2011
66
Norway Exploration - Avaldsnes 3D Perspective
Luno
Aldous Major North
PL338
PL265
Aldous Major South
16/2-7(Avaldsnes 2nd appr.)
16/2-6 Avaldsnes Discovery Well
16/3-4 (Avaldsnes 1st appr.)
PL501
WF11219 p3 01.11
notes
67
Greater Luno Area - Apollo Discovery
0
2.5
16/1-6 S
5
Kilometers
PL 338 - Lundin Petroleum 50% operator
Wintershall 30%, RWE 20%
16/1-2
16/1-7
Aldous
North
16/1-11
Draupne
16/1-9
Apollo discovery
Lower Cretaceous/Upper Jurassic Discovery
Paleocene Discovery
Gross Contingent Resources range
15-65 MMboe gross (PL338)
2012 Appraisal Programme
Apollo, Lower Cretaceous Discovery
16/2-1
16/1-14
16/2-3
Tellus
16/1-4
Apollo,
Paleocene Discovery
16/1-13
16/1-10
Luno
Ragnarrock
16/1-8
16/2-5
16/1-12
16/1-5
WF10988 p13 04.10
notes
Luno South
68
Greater Luno Area - Luno South Discovery
Well defined oil gradient
Tellus
2 oil samples at 2 different levels with
productivity of 300 and 700 bbls/d
LUNO BASIN
Undersaturated Luno-type oil
Luno South Area
74 m core acquired
Ability to identify areas of highly fractured
basement from high quality 3D seismic
Luno South
Tie-in candidate to Luno development
WF11219 p1 01.11
notes
69
Greater Luno Area - Tellus Prospect
Prospective Gross Unrisked Resources: 40 MMboe
Drilling: Ongoing
A Tellus discovery will be part of the Luno development
Luno South
16/1-15
16/1-8
16/1-13
Luno
16/1-15
2.1km
Tellus
Tellus
Tellus
LUNO BASIN
Luno
PL338
WF11219 p2 01.11
notes
Seismic Line
Luno South
South
North
February 2011
70
Greater Luno Area - Further Exploration Potential
Oil
Gas
Prospect
Lead
PL304
2010 APA Award
Tellus Prospect
PL546
PL501
Draupne
Torvastad Prospect
Apollo discovery
Aldous Major North Prospect
Aldous Major South
Luno discovery
16/2-6
Ragnarrock
Luno South
PL265
PL338
PL410
PL502
PL359
Pre and Post Cretaceous
leads and prospects
Avaldsnes discovery
PL359
0015
PL544
0016
PL410
Pre and Post Cretaceous
leads and prospects
0
KM
20
WF11111 p14 11.10
notes
71
Barents Sea
WF11207
notes
72
Norway Exploration - Regional Barents Sea
New border (red line)
Lundin core area
WF11164 p1 11.10
notes
73
Barents Sea
Shtokman
Ververis
Obelix
Obesum
Arenaria
Nucula
Lundin Licence area
Goliat
Snøhvit
Source:maps.grida.no
WF10825 p3 01.10
notes
Oil & Gas
Gas
Oil
February 2011
74
Distribution of Oil Prone Source Rocks
WF11164 p2 11.10
notes
6915
6916
6914
75
Barents Sea - Drilling 6813
to6814Commence in 2011
SWEDEN
22°E
21°E
6309
Lead
Prospect
Oil field
Gas field
Rauto
Numerous multi-stacked prospects matured in the portfolio
Licenced Area (NPD)
Lundin Norway Licences
Operated
PL438
Lundin Petroleum 25% (operator)
3 prospects
7317
Skalle to be drilled in mid year 2011,
250
MMboe gross prospect size
7316
in multiple targets
7320 7321
PL533
Rauto & Pulk (Salinas) prospects
Pulk 500 MMboe gross prospect size 7216
in multiple targets
7215
to be drilled in Q4 2011
7318
PL533
0
72°N
PL492
Gohta
7323
7324
7217
7218
7219
7221
7223
7222
7227
7228
PL438 Juksa
7126
7127
7125
7124
PL438
7121
7120
7119PL490
Snoehvit
7122
7123
PL563
7118
Area
7116
Goliat
7022
7021
ICELAND
7020
WF9900 p4 10.10
7019
notes
Skalle7226
7225
PL490
PL492
PL490
Juksa and Snurrevad prospects
likely drilling in 2012
Rein
Snurrevad
PL563
PL533
8
Bieksu & Geres
7325
7224
71°45’N
7220
KM
Lavvo
7319
Barents Sea
Non-Operated
Pulk (Salinas)
Hammerfest
0
KM
80
76
Geological Play Types
PL533
NW
PL492
7120/1-1R
PL438
Lavvo
PL490
Skalle
7120/2-1
SE
Pleistocene
Shallow gas anomalies
Potential for stacked
reservoirs, as seen at
other discoveries in the
region
Oil and gas potential in
proven good quality
reservoirs
ne
oce
e
Pal
Numerous structural and
stratigraphic play types
Shallow gas anomalies
Early Jurassic
1000
?
Late
us
ceo
ta
Cre
r to
Lowe
2000
ic
s
Trias
Paleo
ce
ne
assic
le Tri
Midd
Cre
ta
ceo
tes
ona
o
leoz
a
er P
Upp
us
arb
ic C
Pre Carboniferous
3000
NW
Possible Flat Spot
21°E
Pulk
22°E
PL533
72°N
PL492
Lavvo
0
4
Rein
PL438
71°45’N
Skalle
Bright Spot
KM
X-Section
PL563
PL490
SE
WF10980 p4 04.10
notes
77
PL438 Skalle
Skalle well to be drilled in mid year 2011
22°E
21°E
Prospect
Oil field
Gas field
Licenced Area (NPD)
PL533
72°N
Lundin Norway Licences
Operated
Non-Operated
PL492
0
KM
8
7217
Lavvo
Rein
PL438
PL563
WF11159 p12 11.10
notes
PL490
Skalle
7116
February 2011
78
PL533 Pulk/Salinas
Trace 2156 - Proposed well location Pulk/Salinas
Proposed well location Pulk/Salinas
Pulk (Salinas) well to be drilled
towards the end of second half 2011
Pulk/Salinas Prospect - Top Knurr Fm. Depth Map
A
B
22
Pulk Deep Prospect
22
A
ine
Inl
Seismic Inline 2222 across Pulk/Salinas Prospect
Pulk
B
WF11159 p11 11.10
notes
79
WF11207
notes
80
Norway Exploration - Greater Alvheim Area
2010 APA Award
PL088
PL088
9/14a-6
0
KM
4
Alvheim Deep
Prospect PL036C
PL088 bs
9/15a-1
P090
PL088 BS
PL340 (15%)
Caterpillar prospect
Drilling ongoing
UK
PEIK
9/15a-2
24/6-1
PL036C
PL088
HEIMDAL
24/6-3
PL088 BS
9/15b-3
9/15b-4
24/6-2
009
ALVHEIM
P1283
25/4-7
South Kneler
Gas Discovery
PL203
0025
Viper Oil
Discovery
25/4-8
25/4-3
GEKKO
9/14b-2B
9/19-12
PL505 (30%)
EARB South prospect
Unrisked gross resource potential 81 MMboe
Drilling Q1 2011
0024
25/7-5
24/9-6
PL150
PL505BS
Norway
PL150
PL203
PL150B
PL340
PL340
SKENE
24/9-4
Padde
Prospect
GAMMA
PL150B (15%)
Volund play extension. Work in progress.
PL547S
EARB North
Prospect
Marihøne C
Prospect
PL505
Frosk
Prospect
Marihøne A
Discovery
PL203 (15%)
Alvheim deep prospect
25/7-6
24/9-5
VOLUND
Marihøne B
Prospect
EARB
Prospect
PL340BS
Caterpillar
Prospect
PL570
EARB south
Prospect
WF10819 p6 11.10
notes
81
Earb Depositional System - Brae Analogue
Base Triassic with Top reservoir (isopach colour drapped)
25/7-1 Lower Cretaceous to Basement
1800 ms
Structure
25/7-2 Discovery well (1990)
0m
25/7-2
200 m
NW
WF10819 p6 11.10
notes
isopach - clipped
3000 ms
SE
February 2011
82
“Brae” Fm Depth Structure and Isopach
Top Brae Fm. Eqv. Depth Map (CI=50m)
Top Brae Fm. Eqv. Isopach (CI=20m)
EARB NORTH
EARB NORTH
EARB
EARB
PL505
PL505
EARB
SOUTH
EARB
SOUTH
Drilling Location
WF10819 p6 11.10
0
km
4
0
km
4
Unrisked gross
resources: 81 MMboe
notes
83
Other Areas - PL519 Area
0
PL519
Work commitment:
- 1 firm well within first 3 years,
TD 100m into Teist Fm or at 3500m
Albert prospect to be drilled in 2011
Unrisked net prospective resources: 70 MMboe
5
KM
notes
2010 APA Award
Oil Field
Gas Field
6201
219
6202
PL519
220
Albert Prospect
PL555
Norway
PL579
UK
210
WF11046 p2 07.10
20
002
033
034
211
003
029
030
84
South East Asia
Following
the Successful
Norway Strategy
Capital Market Day
February 2011
WF11207
notes
85
Exploration - South East Asia - Building a New Core Area
TOTAL
THAILAND
Exploration Licences:
Direct Joint Studies:
Production Licences:
CAMBODIA
VIETNAM
Basin Margin Play
WI 100%
WI 33.3%
WI 75%
Block 06/94
SB303
Cakalang
PM308A & B
Sabah Area
Baronang
SABAH
WI 100%
MALAYSIA
10
1
1
BRUNEI
South Sokang
SB307/308
WI 42.5%
WI 60%
SARAWAK
Gurita
Borneo
WI 35% & 75%
KALIMANTAN
SUMATRA
WEST
PAPUA
SULAWESI
Lematang
Sareba
WI 25.88%
INDONESIA
WI 100%
Rangkas
WI 51%
Lundin Petroleum Licence
Direct Joint Study Area
WF10611 p5 01.11
notes
PAPUA
JAVA
2009-2010 Large 3D seismic areas acquired (Total: 4083km2 acquired in
SB303, SB307/308, Baronang, Cakalang, PM308A&B).
AUSTRALIA
February 2011
86
Why SE Asia? Access to Resources
Same Scale
Sabah Shelf
Greater Alvheim & Luno Core Areas
Peik (088)
0
10
KM
40
Lundin Petroleum Licences
Operated
Non-operated
Alvheim (036c,088bs,203)
Volund (150)
547S
009
008
SB303-B
Hydrocarbon fields/discoveries
Oil
Gas
Condensate
505BS
SB303-A
0027
0026
SB303
0025
505
340
0024
546
304
Kingdom
501
410
Barton
SB307
Saint Joseph
Kamunsu East 1
0018
0017
0016
544
Sugut 1
Bambazon 1
Tembungo
359
0015
SF 30
Furious South
Kamunsu East Upthrown 1ST
501B
Kudat
Tiga Papan 1
Emerald SW 1
265
Luno (338)
016
Titik-Terang 1
Bagang 1
167&B
North
Sea
015
South
China
Sea
Norway
570
340BS
United
Kebabangan 1
Operated
Non-operated
409
SB308
Erb West
Kinarut
Erb South 1
Oil
Gas
Condensate
Malaysia
Ketam
Deluar 1
Lokan 1
0
Kota Kinabalu
Collins SE 1
10
KM
40
WF11089 p5 09.10
notes
87
Lundin Proven Track Record
0
5
KM
20
B17
51 U Minh 1
&C1
PM3 signed in 1989
9G
HA
Phu Tan 1
B-17-01
Lundin drills a series of discoveries on new 3D seismic data
Bumi East 1st
18 months from project sanction to first oil! (Well head
platform tied back to first FPSO in Malaysia)
Bunga Dahlia 1
PM
Bumi 1
Bergading 1
-30
BERGADING
Sold to Talisman in 2001
Bunga Zetung 1
Bunga Anggerik 1
PM-303
Mboepd
80
276 MMbbl liquids
1.6 TCF gas
1994-2001
12 wells
11 success
60
Phase 1: Early production
40
Lundin Signs PM3
20
notes
24
26
20
20
20
18
22
20
20
20
14
16
20
20
10
08
12
20
20
06
20
20
02
00
04
20
20
20
96
98
19
94
19
92
19
19
19
89
0
WF11089 p16 09.10
Bunga Raya
Bunga Kesumba 1
Talisman buys
Lundin (400 MUSD)
46-07
PM-003 CAA
PM-301
PM3 - Production
100
Song Doc
Dam Doi 1
Nam Can 1
Ngoc Hien 1
Bunga Matahari 1
LIA
46-CAI
NUOC
TE Bunga Teratai 1
Hoa Mai
1
RA
TA
IG
Bunga Kekwa
H
Bunga Orkid
A
PM-302
~540 MMboe discovered in 12 fields discovered with
average 45 MMboe per field
46-02 Khanh My 1
Bunga Pakma
2D
AH
Bumi South 1
120
Vietnam
045
To Vietnam
Bunga Seroja
Bunga Tulip 1
PM-325
Malaysia
Jerneh Barat 1 Jerneh
To Malaysia
PM-327
PM-311 Bundi 1
Bundi South 1
88
Malaysia 2011 Drilling Programme
Bertam 1
Kemaman Harbor
Rig secured and drilling to commence
towards mid year 2011
Block
Gross
Net
SB303-A
SB303
51
37
SB303-B
SB303
75
56
PM308A-A
PM308A
43
15
PM308A-B
PM308A
27
9
PM308B-A
PM308B
25
19
Total
221
Cambodia
Ho Chi Minh City
75
0
MalaysiaKemaman Harbor
KM
Kudat
Tiga Papan 1
Emerald SW 1
SB303
SF 30
Furious South
Kota
Kota Kinabalu
Kinabalu
Sugut 1
Barton
SB307
Bambazon 1
Tembungo
Bandar
Bandar Seri
Seri Begawan
Begawan
Saint Joseph
Kebabangan 1
SB308
Erb South 1
Singapore
Operated
Indonesia
Oil
Gas
Condensate
Malaysia
Ketam
Non-operated
WF11116 p1 10.10
Titik-Terang 1
China
Sea
Kuching
Kuching
Indonesia
SB303
SB303-A prospect
SouthCOS30%, P50 51 MMbbl
300
Erb West
PM308B
SB303-B prospect
COS20%, P50 75 MMbbl
Oil
Gas
Condensate
PM308A
Kuala Lumpur
PM308A
Non-operated
Malaysia
Malaysia
PM308B
20
Operated
Brunei
SB307/308
Indonesia
5 KM
Philippines
South China
Sea
PM308A-B
Malaysia prospect
Vietnam
Thailand
Sembilang
Rhu 1A
PM308A-A prospect
136
0
Belida
Kuantan New Port
Unrisked PR (MMboe)
Prospect
Belida
PM308B-A prospect
Indonesia
5 exploration wells to be drilled in 2011, total
net unrisked potential resources 136 MMboe
Lokan 1
Deluar 1
Collins SE 1
Kota Kinabalu
0
10
KM
40
notes
89
Sabah SB303 Prospectivity - A Case Example
Well defined prospect on newly acquired 3D
Follow-up potential in the success case
SB303-B-1
SB303-B-1
West
0.1
0
Seismic Line
0.2
0.3
0.4
Success case
follow-up
potential
Lampun Belanda 0.5
Dundurok
0.6
0.7
0.8
SB303-B
SB303
0.9
Titik-Terang 1
1.0
WF11110b 11.10
notes
0
KM
KM
8
0 KM 20
TD ~950mSS
SB303-B Prospect
2
East
February 2011
90
Sabah Tiga Papan Field - Development Opportunities
Tiga Papan field (SB307&308)
Discovered in 1982
Appraised 1983-6
3D seismic acquired 2001
Opportunity for short-term appraisal
and development
Currently reprocessing existing 3D seismic
and performing geological and engineering
studies
If positive results obtained from feasibility
studies an option exists to fast-track
appraisal drilling in 2011
Three appraisal wells with low flow
rates (10’s -100’s b/d) in low
permeability calcareous sandstone
facies in same fault block
0
km
2
Un-appraised fault blocks
Operated
High uncertainty on fluid levels
& reservoir development yields
a wide range of STOIIP
estimates: ~50-350 MMbbl
Non-operated
Oil
Gas
Condensate
SB303
South
China
Sea
Titik-Terang 1
Tiga Papan 1
Emerald SW 1
SF 30
Furious South
Tiga Papan-1 tested cumulative
5500b/d from 3 zones in
fractured and dolomitized sand
limestone facies
Kudat
Sugut 1
Barton
SB307
Bambazon 1
Tembungo
Tiga Papan field
Saint Joseph
Kebabangan 1
Exploration fault block
SB308
Erb West
Erb South 1
Malaysia
Ketam
Deluar 1
Lokan 1
Kota Kinabalu
Collins SE 1
0
10
KM
40
Tiga Papan Field Depth Structure Map (m) – Top TPU II reservoir
WF11103 p12 10.10
notes
91
SE Asia - Exploration Drilling Beyond 2011
Lundin Petroleum Licence
Potential Future Lundin Petroleum Blocks
THAILAND
20112011
- 2013
CAMBODIA
VIETNAM
2 wells
4 wells
SB303
Cakalang
Baronang
6 wells
SABAH
SB307/308
BRUNEI
South Sokang
MALAYSIA
PM308A & B
SARAWAK
Gurita
Borneo
SUMATRA
KALIMANTAN
Lematang
WEST
PAPUA
SULAWESI
Sareba
Rangkas
INDONESIA
JAVA
At least 12 exploration wells to be drilled over next 3 years
AUSTRALIA
WF10611 p1 g brd 01.11
notes
PAPUA
92
2011 Drilling Schedule
Capital Market Day
February 2011
WF11207
notes
93
Targeted Prospective Resources – 2011 Drilling Schedule
2011
Country
Operator
LUPE%
1 Norway
PL340 - Caterpillar
Marathon
15.00
2
45
1
2 Norway
PL505 - Earb South
Marathon
30.00
24
18
3 Norway
PL338 - Tellus
Lundin
50.00
20
40
4
8
notes
NURPR CoS% NRPR
4 Norway
PL501 - Avaldsnes 16/3-4 App.
Lundin
40.00
–
–
–
5 Norway
PL501 - Avaldsnes 16/2-7 App.
Lundin
40.00
–
–
–
6 Norway
PL265 - Aldous Major South
Statoil
10.00
25
39
10
7 Norway
PL265 - Aldous Major North
Statoil
8 Norway
PL438 - Skalle
Lundin
10.00
25.00
18
63
39
19-41
22
9 Norway
PL533 - Pulk (Salinas)
102
70
14-19
26
15
18
(2)
PL519 - Albert
ENI
Lundin
21.30 (3)
40.00
11 Malaysia
SB303 - SB303-A
Lundin
75.00
37
30
11
12 Malaysia
SB303 - SB303-B
Lundin
75.00
56
20
11
13 Malaysia
PM308A - PM308A-A
Lundin
35.00
15
26
4
14 Malaysia
PM308A - PM308A-B
Lundin
35.00
9
24
2
15 Malaysia
PM308B - PM308B-A
Lundin
75.00
19
18
3
16 Congo (Brazzaville) Block Marine XIV - Makouala
SOCO
21.55
8
32
2
17 Congo (Brazzaville) Block Marine XI - Lideka
SOCO
18.75
12
480(4)
23
2
120
non operated
(1)
Net Unrisked Prospective Resources (MMboe)
(4)
Excludes Netherlands prospective resources (3 MMboe)
(2)
Net Risked Prospective Resources (MMboe)
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
7
10 Norway
operated
WF11117 p1 01.11
(1)
Licence - Prospect
(3)
Prospect split between PL533 (20% equity) and PL 492 (30% equity)
February 2011
94
Exploration Activity to Continue Post 2011
Large prospect inventory on NCS has been developed and continues
to evolve with new licences award
Barents Sea exploration drilling
1 or 2 wells each year
SE Asia exploration drilling from existing and new licences
~USD 300 Million annual exploration investment
WF11117 p2 01.11
notes
95
2011 Financial Overview
WF11207
notes
Capital Market Day
February 2011
96
2011 Forecast Margin Netback [USD/boe]
Forecast
2011
Forecast
2011
Forecast
2010
75.00
90.00
79.50
Revenue
68.25
80.50
70.95
Cost of operations
Tariffs
Production taxes
Stock movements
Other
-8.60
-1.80
-3.55
0.35
-0.20
-8.60
-1.80
-4.40
0.35
-0.20
-8.65
-1.55
-3.75
0.30
-0.40
Cash Margin Netback
54.45
65.85
56.90
Brent oil price
WF11209 p2 01.11
notes
97
2011 Forecast Cost of Operations
2010 Forecast
2011 Forecast
50
48.65
50
40
38.90
40
30
24.35
USD/boe
USD/boe
30
20
WF11209 p3 01.11
notes
France
Netherlands
Indonesia
Tunisia
8.65
8.60
8.65
4.90
3.15
0
8.15
10
11.05
11.40
10
14.15
18.55
16.60
20
Norway
Russia
LUPE Average
0
February 2011
98
2011 Cost of Operations - Quarterly
Forecast
2011 Average
13.00
13.00
12.00
12.00
SAGE shutdown,
Alvheim workover
11.00
10.00
10.00
9.00
9.00
8.00
8.00
7.00
7.00
6.00
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
USD/boe
USD/boe
11.00
6.00
WF11209 p4 01.11
notes
99
2011 Forecast Profit Netback [USD/boe]
Forecast
2011
Forecast
2011
75.00
90.00
Cash Margin Netback
54.45
65.85
Depletion
-13.05
-13.05
G&A
-2.20
-2.20
Financial Items, net
-1.35
-1.20
Profit Before Tax
37.85
49.40
Tax
-27.80
-35.65
Profit After Tax
10.05
13.75
Brent oil price
WF11209 p5 01.11
notes
100
11
30
25
25
21.80
30
12.85
13.05
15.35
15.30
16.10
14.55
20
10
5
France
Netherlands
Indonesia
4.55
4.20
4.75
10
0
15
USD/boe
15
12.60
10.60
20
USD/boe
20
20
10
Fo
rec
as
Fo t
rec
ast
2011 Forecast Depletion
Norway
Russia
5
LUPE Average
0
WF11209 p6 01.11
notes
101
2011 Forecast Taxation [USD/boe]
Brent oil price
WF11209 p7 01.11
notes
Forecast
2011
Forecast
2011
75.00
90.00
Current tax charge
6.10
13.95
Deferred tax charge
21.70
21.70
27.80
35.65
Effective Tax Rate
73%
72%
Operational Tax Rate
67%
67%
February 2011
102
Norwegian Tax Value
Norwegian Tax Value from historic capex spend - 01.01.2011 (MUSD)
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
Tax value of
undepreciated Capex
cost pool for CT
Tax value of
undepreciated Capex
cost pool for SPT
Total
Tax value
Tax value of
unused uplift
for SPT
Net tax value (MUSD)
Net tax value (MUSD)
350
0
WF10100 01.11
notes
103
2011 Forecast Operating Cash Flow Netback
[USD/boe]
Brent oil price
Cash Margin Netback
Cash taxes
WF11209 p8 01.11
notes
Forecast
2011
Forecast
2011
75.00
54.45
-6.10
48.35
90.00
65.85
-13.95
51.90
104
2011 Forecast EBITDA Netback [USD/boe]
Brent oil price
Cash Margin Netback
EBITDA
Forecast
2011
Forecast
2011
75.00
54.45
-2.20
52.25
90.00
65.85
-2.20
63.65
WF11209 p9 01.11
notes
105
2011 Forecast Cash Flow Available for Investment
[USD/boe]
WF11209 p10 01.11
notes
Forecast
2011
Forecast
2011
Brent oil price
75.00
90.00
Cash Financial Items
Cash Flow available for Investment
48.35
-1.60
-1.35
45.40
51.90
-1.60
-1.20
49.10
Development Capex
Exploration Capex
21.00
26.95
21.00
26.95
February 2011
106
Other Investments
Africa Oil Corporation
MUSD 23.7 convertible loan in consideration for sale of Ethiopia/Kenya assets
Maturity date is 31 December 2011
Convertible into shares of AOC at CAD 0.90 per share (Currently CAD 2.15)
ShaMaran Petroleum
50 million shares in ShaMaran (approx 8%) (Current Market Value MUSD 64)
Additional 50 million shares receivable contingent on the approval of
a development plan for the Pulkhana Block PSC
Other
50% effective ownership of IKDAM FPSO
WF11209 p11 01.11
notes
107
Hedging as at 31 January 2011
Oil
No Hedges
Interest Rate
Hedged amount
Interest Rate
Expires
3.75%
1/2012
MUSD 200
Currency
WF11209 p13 01.11
notes
No Hedges
108
Share Capital 31 December 2010
Shares issued
317.9 million
Shares in circulation
311 million
Treasury shares
6.9 million
WF11209 p14 01.11
notes
109
5 Year Plan
WF11209 p15 01.11
notes
Cash Flow
550 MUSD per annum
Exploration Investment
300 MUSD per annum
Development Investment
2,000 MUSD
Funding Requirement
750 MUSD
February 2011
110
Lundin Petroleum 2011 - Continued Growth
Exploration focus to continue
Development activity to increase
Production to increase
Strong balance sheet and operating
cash flow to fund continued growth
WF11215 p2 01.11
notes
111
Lundin Petroleum
www.lundin-petroleum.com
WF11207
notes
notes
February 2011
notes
For further information, contact
Lundin Petroleum
Ch. de la Pallanterie 5
1222 Vésenaz
Switzerland
Telephone: (41 22) 595 10 00
Facsimile: (41 22) 595 10 05
e-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.lundin-petroleum.com

Kapitalmarknadsdag 2011 presentation

Transcription

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