Mini Market Report

July 2016
Bake-off Bakery Markets in Europe
2004 - 2014/2015 - 2019
Mini Market Report
GIRA Bake-off Mini Market Report
© Gira 2016
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Disclaimer
By using this Mini Market Report, the reader explicitly acknowledges that he or she has read this disclaimer and fully
accepts its contents.
All readers and users of this Mini Market Report recognise and accept that neither Girag & Associates Sarl (trading
as Gira) nor any members of its staff or its consultants accept any responsibility whatsoever for any loss or damage
incurred, including due to negligence, directly or indirectly, by any party as a result of decisions taken or actions
made by any party on the basis of any information, conclusions or statements contained in this Mini Market Report.
Copyright
Reproduction of any of the material in this Mini Market Report in any form whatsoever including electronic is strictly
forbidden without the prior written agreement of Girag & Associates Sarl.
GIRA Bake-off Mini Market Report
© Gira 2016
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Introduction

This Overview contains information and conclusions drawn from
our last study: "Bake-off Bakery Markets in Europe 2004-2014/152019 New Challenges for the next 5 Years" and covering 20
individual country studies listed on the right which are an integral
part of this research programme.

Products covered are all bake-off products in the areas of: bread,
viennoiserie, patisserie, and savoury pastry snacks and in the context
of total bakery products consumption.

We analyse all distribution channels for fresh and bake-off products:
artisan bakers, modern retailers (hyper-, supermarkets and hard
discount), “other retail sectors” (small grocery stores, c-stores and
gas-stations), foodservice (commercial and social) and bakery chains.
Work on the study was carried out between March and November
2015.
It has involved extensive documentary and on-line research in all
countries, and a major interview programme of a total of over 300
interviews with representatives of operators all along the bakery chain
and their associations and administrations.
GIRA Bake-off Mini Market Report
© Gira 2016
AT
BE
CH
CZ
DE
DK
EL
ES
FI
FR
HU
IE
IT
NL
NO
PL
PT
SE
TK
UK
Austria
Belgium
Switzerland
Czech Republic
Germany
Denmark
Greece
Spain
Finland
France
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
The Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Sweden
Turkey
United Kingdom
EU19 refers to the above
countries except Turkey
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Scope and definitions

Bakery products differentiation at consumer level (B2C products):
 Bakery products: we cover each of bread, viennoiserie, patisserie and savoury pastry snacks (to be consumed hot)
 Products technologies: fresh (un-packed or packed at the point of sales, shelf-life 1-2 days), prepacked "long-life"
(packed at industrial level, branded, sold at the ambient grocery counter, shelf-life over 2 days), prepacked for homebaking (needs final baking/thawing at home).

Distribution circuits:
 Retail: artisan bakers, modern retail (including hard-discount stores), "other retail" (convenience stores, petrol stations
and small grocery stores)
 Foodservice: commercial HoReCa (restaurants and hotels, transport), social foodservice (education, workplace,
health/welfare), bakery and sandwich chains (more than 5 sales outlets).

Production methods:
 Artisanal scratch production (artisanal scratch
baking at the point of sale, with the product directly
sold to the consumer)
• This is mainly to be found at bakers' shops and
in-store scratch baking units in hypermarkets
(also in some restaurants)
 Industrial production encompasses:
• B2C prepacked "long-life" and home-baking
• Fresh finished products, daily delivered by
industrial bakers to the stores - to be re-sold
fresh
• B2B bake-off: frozen (or chilled) products, to be
baked at the point of sales and sold fresh.
GIRA Bake-off Mini Market Report
• RTP: Ready to prove
• RTB: Ready to bake
• FB: Fully baked
© Gira 2016
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Product definitions
Same definitions used in ALL countries, so products and data are comparable
Type
Recipes & Formats
Description
White, special, soft.
Bread
Viennoiserie
Baguette, loaves, small
breads.
French laminated dough,
Danish pastries, risen dough,
fried dough.
Family size, individual, mini.
Patisserie
Cakes, tarts, chou pastries,
multilayered cream cakes, US
pastries.
Family size, individual, mini.
Savoury
snacks
Tarts & pizzas, topped
bread, savoury puff
pastries to be eaten hot.
Individual size, mini.
GIRA Bake-off Mini Market Report
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EU19 bakery products consumption overview
Total consumption: 36.8 mio tons in 2015

Total EU19 bakery consumption was
assessed at 36.8 mio tons in 2015 and EUR
140 bn

Total consumption has decreased by 0.1%
pa between 2009 and 2015

Bread accounts for 79% of total bakery
products consumption by volume

Fresh products dominate consumption, with
70% of market volume

Towards 2019 consumption should see a
small increase per year, with growing fresh
consumption to the detriment of prepacked
long-life products.
Gira Bake-off 2015
Gira Bake-off 2015
GIRA Bake-off Mini Market Report
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Bread and fresh bakery products
dominate consumption
Bakery products consumption by technology
2015
Bakery products consumption by product
2015
Gira Bake-off 2015

Consumption by products:
Gira Bake-off 2015

 High share of patisserie: UK
 High share of viennoiserie: ES, FR, AT, CH
 High share of savoury: TK, UK, NL.

Consumption by technology:
 High share of fresh: TK, PT, IT, EL
 High share of prepacked "long-life": UK/IE,
Scandinavia, CZ, DE.
Per capita bakery products consumption:
 Highest: TK, DE, CZ and EL
 Lowest : IT, NL and FI.
GIRA Bake-off Mini Market Report
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Some of the big issues affecting
the consumer bakery markets

Some big trends:
 Snacking and eating-on-the-go
 All forms of healthy and well-being
 Environmental concerns and green issues
(waste, carbon footprint)
 Economic crisis
 Strong focus on origin.
Gira Bake-off 2015
Gira Bake-off 2015

Some consequences for bakery products:
 Smaller formats
 Clean label
 Back to the roots: local products, local
recipes
 Back to basics: more "artisanal", products
made from traditional, pure ingredients
 Added value and specialties
 Continuing development of "commodity"
products.
GIRA Bake-off Mini Market Report
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Gira Bake-off 2015
Gira Bake-off 2015
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EU19 fresh bakery products distribution channels
Modern retailers have equalled the artisan bakers
Fresh bakery products distribution
by volume, 2015
Growth % in fresh bakery products
distribution, EU-19, 2014/2019
Gira Bake-off 2015
Gira Bake-off 2015

In 2015, modern retailers fresh bakery sales volumes have equalled artisan bakers' ones
 Both sectors now accounting for 31% of distribution

Towards 2019:
 Best prospects are foreseen for bakery chains and the HoReCa sectors
 Whereas modern retailers' growth will be slowed.
GIRA Bake-off Mini Market Report
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Bakery products consumption broken down
by type of producer
Bakery products consumption broken down by
type of supply, EU19, 2015
Growth % in bakery products supply methods, EU19,
2014/2019
Gira Bake-off 2015
Gira Bake-off 2015
(% volume, baked weight)

In 2015 industrial supply accounted for 67% of EU-19 total bakery product consumption, against 33% for
artisanal manufacturers

The share of industrial production is expected to reach 70% by 2019.
GIRA Bake-off Mini Market Report
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Bakery products consumption broken down
by type of producer (2)
BREAD supply, EU19, 2015
VIENNOISERIE supply, EU19, 2015
Gira Bake-off 2015
Gira Bake-off 2015
PATISSERIE supply, EU19, 2015
SAVOURY PASTRY supply, EU19, 2015
Gira Bake-off 2015
Gira Bake-off 2015
(% volume, baked weight)
GIRA Bake-off Mini Market Report
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FRESH bakery products supply strategies by channel
FRESH bakery products supply strategy by channel, EU19 – 2009, 2014, 2019f

From scratch baking is still the main fresh bakery products production method in the artisanal sector
 Modern retailers is the only other sector where scratch baking is significant – but however decreasing

Apart from artisans, buying fresh bakery products and reselling them remains the main supply option

Bake-off now accounts for almost 40% of modern retailers' fresh bakery supplies

In all sectors anyway the bake-off option will increase.
GIRA Bake-off Mini Market Report
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EU19 bake-off bakery products market in 2015:
over 7.5 mio tons (raw weight)
Bake-off bakery products consumption
by product - 2015
Bake-off bakery products consumption
by convenience level - 2015
Gira Bake-off 2015
Gira Bake-off 2015
Bake-off bakery products market
by sector - 2015
(% volume, raw weight)
Gira Bake-off 2015
GIRA Bake-off Mini Market Report
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Bake-off bakery products usage by channel
Bake-off bakery products usage by channel, EU19 – 2009, 2014, 2019f

Artisan bakers tend to use predominantly ready-to-prove bread and above all viennoiserie

Modern retailers have switched to essentially ready-to-bake products and the trend will continue

Other retail sectors logically use the most convenient products

Foodservice sectors are heavy users of ready-to-bake products, and the use of fully-baked products will
increase in the future

Bakery chains use a rather similar pattern as modern retailers.
GIRA Bake-off Mini Market Report
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Bake-off industry structure:
Typology of the companies analysed by Gira
Typology and market share of bake-off companies – 2014/15 (165 companies)
The 165 bake-off producers analysed by Gira in the Bake-off 2015 study may be classified into five categories:
 6 "Pan-European" bake-off producers – achieving 25% market share by value: Aryzta (CH), Lantmannen Unibake (SE),
Vandemoortele (BE), Nutrixo/Délifrance (FR), La Lorraine Bakery Group (BE), CSM (USA)
 14 "Large companies", with t/o > EUR 100 mio and entering the top 25 bake-off companies – 20% market share
 "Integrated" companies (bakery chains and modern retailers) – 11% market share
 Small and medium sized companies, with usually only one "national" plant – 44% market value.
The Top 10 bake-off producers accounted for about 34% of EU19 bake-off market value in 2014/15.
GIRA Bake-off Mini Market Report
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Bake-off Bakery Markets study Coverage: Assessing all
the elements of bake-of markets and their competitive dynamics
Germany
France
UK
Italy
Poland
Spain
Norway
Greece
Netherlands
Belgium
Czech Rep.
Hungary
Portugal
Austria
Sweden
Ireland
Denmark
Finland
Switzerland
Turkey
DATA
(for 2004, 2009, 2014, 2015, 2019f)
MARKET INSIGHTS: CONSUMPTION DATA & FORECASTS BY PRODUCT
Bread – Viennoiserie – Patisserie – Savoury pastry
DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS, for each product
Artisan bakers – Modern retailers – Bakery chains – Other retail & C-stores – Foodservice sectors
FRESH BAKERY PRODUCTS PRODUCTION METHODS, for each channel
From scratch baking on-site – Buying & reselling fresh products – Bake-off
LEVEL OF CONVENIENCE IN BAKE-OFF PRODUCTS USED
Ready to prove – Ready to bake – Fully-baked/Thaw & serve
MARKET FOR BAKE-OFF
By product, channel & convenience level
GAPS &
OPPORTUNITIES
BAKE-OFF PRODUCTION
By product & convenience level
BAKE-OFF EUROPEAN SYNTHESIS
Bake-off consumption – Production – Top manufacturers League Table
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