East African Communitiy, 2011. Enhancing Safety of Navigation and

Transcription

Enhancing Safety of Navigation and Efficient
Exploitation of Natural Resources over Lake
Victoria and Its Basin by Strengthening
Meteorological Services on the Lake
& aircrafts
Lake Victoria
Early Warning
Coordination Centre
Lake Victoria
Final Report
26 October 2011
Primary Project Consultancy Team
Consultant: North Carolina State University
Lead Investigator: Professor Fredrick Semazzi [http://climlab.meas.ncsu.edu/links.html]
Dept. of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, Raleigh, NC 27695-8208
Email Address: [email protected]
Other Members of the Consultancy (United States):
1. Professor Sandra Yuter: North Carolina State University
2. Professor James Kiwanuka-Tondo: North Carolina State University
3. Professor Lian Xie: North Carolina State University
4. Mr. Lynn Rose: Atmospheric Technology Services Company (ATSC), Norman, OK
Other Members of the Consultancy (East Africa):
1. Mr. Ruben Barakiza: (Institut Geographique du Burundi)
2. Mr. Peter Ambenje: (Kenya, Meteorology Department)
3. Mr. Anthony Twahirwa: (Rwanda Meteorological Service)
4. Dr. Hamza Kabelwa : (Tanzania Meteorological Agency)
5. Dr. Ronald Wesonga: (Uganda Meteorological Department)
6. Prof. Laban Ogallo and Dr. Joseph Mutemi (University of Nairobi and ICPAC, Kenya)
7. Mr. Francis Kirudde, UMEME, Uganda
Technical Support Team
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Mr. Casey Burleyson, North Carolina State University
Dr. Bin Liu, North Carolina State University
Ms. Jaine Place, North Carolina State University
Ms. Kara Smith, North Carolina State University
Dr. Pascal Waniha, North Carolina State University
2 Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary
6
2. Background
9
2.1 EAC Meteorological Activities
11
2.2 World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Activities
11
2.2.1 Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project
(SWFDP-Eastern Africa)
2.2.2 World Weather Research Programme (WWRP/WMO)
Lake Victoria Project
2.2.3 Mobile Weather Alert Project (WAP)
11
12
12
3. Primary Components of Feasibility Study
13
4. Summary of Activities During Inception Phase of Project
14
4.1 Project Start-up and Subcontract with the Atmospheric
Technology Services (ATS)
14
4.2 Consultative visits to LVBC Secretariat, Kisumu, Kenya
14
4.3 Consultative visit to Representative Key Institutions
14
4.4 Consultative visit to Gabba Landing Site
15
5. Stakeholder Workshop – 18-19 July, 2011
17
6. Sub-projects Reports and Recommendations
18
6.1 Assessment of Stakeholders’ Needs
6.1.1 Training of Meteorological Officers to Conduct Survey
6.1.2 Summary Results of the Survey
6.2 Assessment of atmospheric and marine, monitoring and modeling requirements
6.2.1
6.2.2
6.2.3
6.2.4
6.2.5
6.2.6
Assessment of Atmospheric Observational Needs
Precipitation Characteristics over Lake Victoria
Utilization of the Current Observational Network
Assessment of Marine Observational Needs
Assessment of Atmospheric Modeling Needs
Assessment of Marine Modeling Needs
18
18
18
23
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23
28
30
31
39
3 7. Recommendations for Atmospheric and Marine, Monitoring and Modeling
Requirements
41
7.1 Primary Recommendations
41
7.2 Broad Recommendations
43
7.3 Recommended Meteorological Sensors
44
7.3.1 Scanning Weather Radars
7.3.2 Lightning Detection and Location Sensors
7.3.3 More Automated Surface Weather Observation Sensors around Lake Victoria
7.3.4 Integrated Weather Pak
7.3.5 Automated Surface Weather Observation Sensors on Islands
7.3.6 GPS Occultation System
7.3.7 Lightning Prediction by Radar
7.3.8 Stream Gauges
7.3.9 Summary
45
46
47
47
48
49
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50
7.4 Recommendations for Marine Monitoring Requirements
51
7.5 Recommendations for Modeling Requirements
54
7.5.1 Recommended Prediction Model Configuration
8. Recommendations for Implementation Phase
8.1 Project 1: Plan for a Navigation Early Warning System (NEWS)
(CTOR1, CTOR3, and CTOR4)
8.1.1 Project Rationale
8.1.2 Overall Project Objective
8.1.3 Specific Project Objective
8.1.4 Expected Project Outputs
8.1.5 Project Scope
8.1.6 Detailed Tasks
8.1.7 Estimated Project Costs
8.2 Project 2: Plan for a Hotspots Atlas (CTOR2)
8.2.3 Specific Project Objectives
8.2.5 Project Scope
8.2.6 Proposed Membership of Consultancy to Conduct the Project
54
55
55
55
57
57
58
58
58
66
66
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66
67
67
67
67
68
4 8.3 Project 3: Plan for a Marine and Atmospheric Observational Network and Water/Air
Quality (CTOR3)
8.3.5 Project Scope
68
68
69
71
72
72
72
73
8.4 Project 4: Plan for the Consultant’s Proposal for a Centre for Meteorological Services
(CMS) for the Lake Victoria Basin (CTOR5)
74
8.4.3 Expected Project Outcomes
8.4.4. Project Scope
74
74
75
76
76
ANNEXES:
Annex 1: Original Terms of Reference (TOR) and Mapping on Consolidated
Terms of Reference (CTOR)
81
Annex 2: Reports and Documentation Available to the Project Team
83
Annex 3: Programme for the Stakeholders’ Workshop
86
Annex 4: List of Delegates Attending the Workshop for Stakeholders for
Enhancing Safety of Navigation and Efficient Exploitation of
Natural Resources over Lake Victoria and its Basin by Strengthening
Meteorological Services for Lake Victoria Basin
88
Annex 5: Survey Questionnaire
93
Annex 6: Evidence of Severe Weather over Lake Victoria
(Waterspouts over Lake Victoria)
100
Annex 7: List of Acronyms
102
5 1. Executive Summary
Lake Victoria is the commercial and socioeconomic ‘nerve center’ of East Africa. It is Africa’s
largest and the world’s second largest freshwater lake, with an area of 69,000 km2 spanning
Tanzania, Uganda, and Kenya. The Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) supports over 30 million people.
As one of the two sources of River Nile (longest in the world), the LVB supports natural
resources that impact the livelihood of over 300 million people who live in the Nile basin.
The fishing industry on Lake Victoria is a leading natural resource for the people of East Africa
and is worth hundreds of millions of dollars in domestic consumption and exports. Marine
transport accidents associated with the industry cause more than 5000 deaths every year, which
represents a significant and unacceptable percentage of the fishing population. Most of these
accidents have been attributed to hazardous weather conditions and water currents in the lake.
The East African Community (EAC) LVB Commision (LVBC) has commissioned this
feasibility study to develop a plan for “Enhancing Safety of Navigation and Efficient
Exploitation of Natural Resources over Lake Victoria and Its Basin by Strengthening
Meteorological Services on the Lake.”
The feasibility study comprises five primary components, namely: (i) pre-workshop activities
(inception phase of project); (ii) a stakeholders’ workshop; (iii) a survey of stakeholders’,
demographics, concerns, and needs; (iv) assessment of atmospheric and marine observational
needs; and (v) an assessment of prediction model requirements for hazardous meteorological
conditions. Analysis of the results from these assessment components has revealed major
weaknesses in the provision of meteorological services for marine navigation safety and
exploitations of natural resources in the basin. Based on these results, a plan has been developed
for the enhancement of the meteorological services. It comprises four projects.
Project 1: Navigation Early Warning System (NEWS) Pilot Project. Estimated Cost:
$1,366,000
The objective of this project is to test a pilot system for the provision of early warning alerts for
fishermen navigational needs, based on the prediction of severe weather and hazardous marine
conditions over Lake Victoria. The pilot project should be carried out over a limited sector of
Lake Victoria. Systematic analysis of the impacts of the pilot project will provide critical
information for the development of a full-fledged and much more expensive early warning
system for the entire lake basin. The pilot project involves the following six components:
•
•
•
Enhancement of the monitoring network to fill the most urgent observational gaps for the
provision of early warning alerts. The most urgent critical need is the completion of the
procurement and installation of the radar at Mwanza/Tanzania, Eldoret/Kenya and
Entebbe/Uganda. At least one radar will be required to test the pilot system. A
comprehensive request will be submitted to the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric
Research (NCAR) Earth Observing Laboratory (EOL) for a rental radar;
Deployment of the EAC MV Jumuiya and other vessels which may be accessed through EAC
to monitor the vital elements of the lake’s currents;
Customization and application of a coupled prediction computer model to predict severe
weather and hazardous water currents for issuing NEWS alerts;
6 •
•
•
Use of information from the prediction computer models to produce customized early
warning alert products that are easily understandable and useable by Lake Victoria fishermen
and transporters; and
Build on the lessons, experiences and infrastructure from recent initiatives such as the Mobile
Phone Weather Alert Program and others to develop a delivery mechanism for the alerts to
the stakeholders. Under this project, the Uganda Department of Meteorology, Ericsson,
MTN, National Lake Rescue Institute, and the World Meteorological Organization are
piloting a Short Message Service (SMS) called ‘Mobile Weather Alert’ which uses mobile
telephone technology to provide forecasts of severe weather to improve the safety for
fishermen on Lake Victoria.
Create awareness among the stakeholders to use the meteorological information
Consultancy: It is recommended that EAC-LVBC commission a high-powered resource
mobilization and implementation task force or consultant to coordinate the regional and
international partnerships and resources for the implementation of the pilot project. The Terms of
Reference (TOR) for the consultant should include:
•
•
Development of a detailed request to the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research
(NCAR) Earth Observing Laboratory (EOL) for acquisition of facilities and services for
the pilot project; and
Development of a plan for strategic collaboration between EAC-LVBC and NCAR Research
Applications Laboratory (RAL) through its Joint Numerical Testbed (JNT). The main goal of
the collaboration is to test the performance of the experimental forecast weather prediction
system recommended in this feasibility study.
Project 2: Hotspots Atlas Project- Estimated Cost: $225,000
Weather and climate information required for decision-makers and management of leading
socioeconomic sectors in the EAC region is not currently available at any single collection
centre. Furthermore, the information is not available in a user-friendly form, which makes use
difficult for the stakeholders. The purpose of this project is to produce a weather/climate atlas
which serves this need and, in doing so, to significantly enhance productivity in the exploitation
of natural resources for the LVB. The contents of the atlas should include digital data, graphs,
and maps for the provision of: (i) basic meteorological information including CORDEX-based
climate projection products and; (ii) sector-specific climate information for at least the following
industries: fisheries, marine navigation, tourism, agriculture, energy, water resources,
engineering construction, forestry, transportation, health, resource sharing and conflict early
warning, and environmental conservation.
Consultancy: A consultant should be commissioned to develop this initiative into a standard
demonstration project of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) under one of its
five near-term implementation objectives of “…designing and implementing a set of projects that
target the needs of developing countries ….”. This would serve as a prototype for the rest of the
EAC region and beyond.
7 Project 3: Marine and Atmospheric Special Observing Period (SOP) for LVB ProjectEstimated Cost: $5,903,000
The results of the feasibility study have indicated the need for major upgrade in the observational
network for the marine and the meteorological conditions over the LVB. Although the primary
goal of NEWS is the provision of operational meteorological services, the high demand for
observational network upgrade and development of enhanced modeling capabilities presents a
compelling case for partnership with a research community which also needs an enhanced
observational network and products. The basis of this project is to exploit this common need to
develop a joint, limited-period observational network to be sustained by the EAC governments
through intergovernmental funding arrangements after the SOP.
This project will help fill a major gap in the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment
(GEWEX) Regional Hydroclimate Projects over East Africa. The GEWEX African Monsoon
Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) project covers only West Africa thus leaving a large swath
over the rest of Africa which is not covered by GEWEX special campaigns. This proposed
project entails creation of the Regional Hydroclimate Project (HYVIC) GEWEX project to fill
the important gap over the LVB.
Consultancy: We recommend that the EAC-LVBC commission a consultancy to coordinate and
implement this project. The TORs should include:
•
•
•
Development of an observational science plan and an implementation plan for a limitedperiod international observing campaign for the LVB to fill the observational gap in GEWEX
global programs’ global coverage. The plan should clearly indicate how the upgraded
observational network will be sustained after the limited-period international project ends.
The science and implementation plans should be developed in close consultation with and
engagement of the relevant international organizations including GEWEX, the World
Climate Research Program (WCRP) Climate Variability and Prediction Programme
(CLIVAR) and GFCS,
Organize a series of workshops and meetings to mobilize international participation in the
implementation of the HYVIC observational project and secure pledges of support for the
implementation phase. Organizations to be invited to participate should include: the U.S.
National Science Foundation (NSF) Climate and Large-Scale Dynamics Program, the NSF
International Program, the NSF Facilities Program, the World Bank, the World Climate
Research Program (WCRP), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Google.org,
Ericsson, GSMA, Zain, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the U.S.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Department for International
Development (DFID), EAC national governments, African Development Bank, Korea
International Cooperation Agency (KOICA), the U.K. Meteorology Office (UKMO), the
U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA), the Canadian International
Development Research Centre (IDRC), START, AMMA promoters, and others.
Implementation of the project potentially involving the deployment of a comprehensive array
of land and marine monitoring sensors, satellites, ships, and aircrafts; and
8 •
A major observation data collection campaign for the limited period at centralized data
archiving facilities that will serve the proposed regional centre for navigation safety early
warning and exploitation of natural services.
Project 4: Proposal for development of a Centre for Meteorological Services (CMS) for the
Lake Victoria Basin
The provision of meteorological services for the LVB requires a distributed or centralized
coordination mechanism with a set of well-defined high level deliverables which are responsive
to high priority stakeholder concerns and needs. To achieve this goal, the mechanism will need
high-performing governance to provide the vision for meeting the urgent needs addressed under
Projects 1-3, in a sustainable form.
Ad-hoc Technical Group (ATG) Consultancy: We propose that the EAC-LVBC establish, as a
matter of urgency, an ad hoc technical group to develop a detailed implementation plan for the
CMS based upon the broad strategy outlined in this report, and that this plan be endorsed by
EAC nations’ governments through an intergovernmental process prior to its implementation.
The TOR of the ATG should be based on the broad strategy recommended in this feasibility
study for the development of an institutional Framework for the CMS. The TORs should include
the following consideration:
•
•
•
Provision of oversight for the implementation of the high-profile capacity building projects
(Projects 1-3) to enable the delivery of weather and climate services to meet the needs of the
weather- and climate-vulnerable communities of the LVB;
Development of a governance plan based on two governance structure options that we have
proposed, an EAC-LVBC-based secretariat, and creation and engagement of a network of
regional technical committees of experts; and
Mobilization of resources for the implementation phase of the CEM.
In addition to the traditional support of the National Meteorological and Hydrological
Services (NMHSs) by the EAC governments, the EAC should commit to pay for or make a small
additional contribution to the CMS intergovernmental fund to sustain its provision of the added
value beyond the capabilities of the NMHSs. The added value should be demonstrated initially
though fast-track pilot projects.
9 2. Background
Lake Victoria is Africa’s largest and the world’s second largest freshwater lake, with an area of
69,000 km2 spanning Tanzania, Uganda, and Kenya. It is a key resource for the people of East
Africa and has the largest freshwater fisheries, producing 700,000 to 800,000 metric tons of fish
annually worth USD 350-400 million. Fish exports earn the region USD 250 million per year.
Furthermore, there is an important untapped potential to expand both the tourism and
transportation industries across the lake to benefit communities who share this transnational fresh
water resource.
The LVB is the commercial and socioeconomic ‘nerve center’ of the East African Community
(EAC). Approximately 30 million people live along its shores and the lake provides employment
for three to four million people. Unfortunately, it is also one of the most dangerous waterways in
the world. On average 5,000 deaths occur each year among 200,000 fishermen on Lake Victoria
due to navigation accidents. About 50,000 small fishing boats, operating out of 1,400 landing
sites or beaches around the lake, dominate maritime activities on Lake Victoria. There is also a
small commercial shipping industry, operating a few hundred mostly small vessels and a fleet of
traditional cargo vessels. On average, each person (mostly fishermen) who loses their lives on
the lake leaves behind an average of eight dependents. The deaths affect the wellbeing of over
30,000 people—an affect which accumulates year to year and compounds the poverty cycle.
Despite the economic effects and loss of life, Lake Victoria lacks effective rescue and early
warning systems to protect those who depend on the lake and waterway for their livelihoods.
Safety is one of the biggest problems affecting both users and operators and influencing their use
of water transport. There are unique weather dynamics that continuously threaten air and marine
navigation over the lake and its basin. The region around the lake has the highest occurrence of
hailstorms and thunderstorms in the EAC region. These are associated with local circulation
patterns arising from differential heating between land and water surfaces and their interactions
with the large-scale (synoptic) circulation patterns. Accidents involving transport and fishing
boats occur frequently on Lake Victoria, some very serious. In May 1996, a passenger ferry, the
MV. Bukoba, capsized while on its way to Mwanza in Tanzania killing about 800 people. The
MV Kabelega sank on 8 May 2005 and though losing no lives, lost consumer produce in the tune
of 800 tons. Grounding of the MV Thor at Ghana Island on 24 March 2006 lost 300,000 litres of
petroleum products. On 21 April 2006, the MV Nyamageni capsized and sank, resulting in 28
deaths. On 22 July 2010, a passenger boat capsized on the Ugandan side of the lake, losing 50
people. Survivors tell of strong waves hitting the vessel, shattering it into pieces. There is
therefore a great need to improve safety of navigation by expanding the observational network
over the LVB to provide timely and accurate meteorological information and products, including
safety advisories and warnings to ships and other vessels.
An additional and growing concern is pollution of Lake Victoria waters caused by population
growth and increased farming and fishing activities over the lake basin. Pollution monitoring and
assessment is needed to advise appropriate authorities on pollution risks from growing industry,
increased population, and more intensive farming.
10 To address these concerns, the Lake Victoria Basin Commission (LVBC) commissioned
consulting services and awarded a contract to North Carolina State University (NCSU) on 15
April 2011. The overall objective of the consultancy is to carry out a needs assessment and
feasibility study for “Enhancing Safety of Navigation and Efficient Exploitation of Natural
Resources over Lake Victoria and Its Basin by Strengthening Meteorological Services on the
Lake”. The Terms of Reference (TORs) are given in Annex 1.
2.1
EAC Meteorological Activities
During the meeting of the Heads of Meteorological Services held in Kisumu, Kenya, on May 22,
2009, the heads noted the need of establishing an EAC centre of excellence for medium-range
weather forecasting in view of the evident impacts of climate change and the need for
availability of weather information in the region. The heads named a Task Team comprising Mr.
Peter Ambenje (Kenya, convener), Mr. Mohamed Matitu (Tanzania), Mr. D. Bamanya (Uganda),
Mr. Anthony Twahirwa (Rwanda), and Mr. Ruben Barakiza (Burundi), to investigate
establishing a full-fledged East African Centre of Excellence for Medium Range Forecasting.
The Task Team has developed a strategic framework for the development of numerical weather
prediction in the EAC region. The vision for the framework is to have all national meteorological
services (NMSs) in the EAC running one or more Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models
and using them to issue a wide range of accurate, timely and value-added weather products for
early warning and disaster risk reduction. The mission of this initiative is to advance NWP in the
EAC region through a coordinated and cooperative effort of the five National Meteorological
Services (NMSs) that is consistent with provisions of the EAC Treaty and the Five-Year
Meteorological Development Plan and Investment Strategy. This includes research, development
of forecast techniques, real-time testing of forecast systems, and verification and interaction with
users, enabling provision of accurate and timely weather products contributing to socioeconomic development of the region. This is a collaborative effort incorporating meteorologists,
modelers, engineers, universities, and operational personnel from NMSs, government
institutions, and the private sector. This program will be highly complementary to the solutions
being sought in this feasibility study. However, the focus here is on the LVB region.
The forecast system should eventually be based on a fully coupled lake-atmosphere system of the
kind developed by NCSU scientists in order to predict the evolution of the lake’s currents and
waves—critical for safety of fishermen and of marine vessels.
2.2
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Activities
There are several WMO initiatives which are complimentary to the solutions being sought in this
feasibility study; three of them are briefly described below.
2.2.1
Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP – Eastern Africa)
The Eastern Africa Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) project is part
of the global World Meteorological Organization (WMO) SWFDP framework. Further details
about the program may be found in the SWFDP Overall Project Plan (2010), and SWFDP
11 Guidebook for Planning Regional Subprojects (2010), both developed by the Commission for
Basic Systems (CBS) Steering Group on the SWFDP. The SWFDP Overall Project Plan (2010)
is a high-level document targeting senior managers and describing SWFDP technical aspects
related to the Global Data-processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS), public weather services
(PWS) programmes, and general principles and conceptual framework for guiding project
planning. The SWFDP Guidebook for Planning Regional Subprojects (2010) provides a
“template” and procedures for developing a Regional Subproject Implementation Plan (RSIP).
The SWFDP aims to contribute to capacity building and help developing countries to implement
the best possible use of existing NWP products for improving warnings of hazardous weather
conditions and weather-related hazards. The East African SWFDP domain for monitoring,
analyzing and predicting the various severe weather events is bounded by 5E-55E; 30N-25S and
a specific domain for Lake Victoria is being considered. Under SWFDP, global-scale products,
as well as data and information provided by other regional centers, would be integrated and
synthesized by a designated Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC), which, in
turn, provides daily guidance for short-range (days 1 and 2) and medium-range (out to day 5)
periods on specified hazardous meteorological phenomena (e.g., heavy rain, strong winds, etc.)
to participating National Meteorological Centers (NMCs) of the region.
2.2.2
World Weather Research Programme (WWRP/WMO) – Lake Victoria Project
The WWRP is an international research project coordinated by WMO. The project foci include
use of satellite remote sensing to understand lightning. The Working Group on Nowcasting
Research (WGNR) of WWRP provides scientific guidance to the Mobile Weather Alert Project
(WAP) among other initiatives. The WAP has strong interest in capacity building such as the
European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) training
initiative.
2.2.3 Mobile Weather Alert Project (WAP)
More than 5000 people lose their lives on Lake Victoria each year. Most of them drown as a
result of high winds and waves associated with convective storms on the lake. The Uganda
Department of Meteorology, Ericsson, the MTN Group, the National Lake Rescue Institute, and
the WMO are piloting a Short Message Service (SMS) called “Mobile Weather Alert” which
uses mobile technology to provide forecasts of severe weather and improve safety for fishermen
on Lake Victoria. A two-day training workshop in Kampala on 4-5 May 2011 trained community
leaders to understand the SMS alerts. These community leaders will recruit and train other
fishermen on Ssese Island, Lake Victoria, to use the service for a three-month trial period. The
aim of the Mobile Weather Alert project is to reduce the casualty toll by utilizing mobile phone
technology to develop a sustainable warning service that reduces the vulnerability of
communities in the Lake Victoria Region to weather hazards. The main launch of the Mobile
Weather Alert project took place in July, 2011.
The consultant has studied the various reports mentioned in the Terms of Reference (TOR) and
held meetings and telephone conferences with the LVBC secretariat, the five NMHS, university
partners, and potential promoters. The main feasibility study tasks are described below.
12 3. Primary Components of the Feasibility Study
The feasibility study comprises five primary components, namely: (i) pre-workshop activities
(inception phase of project); (ii) a stakeholders’ workshop; (iii) a survey of stakeholders’
demographics, concerns, and needs; (iv) assessment of atmospheric and marine observational
needs; and (v) an assessment of prediction model requirements. The outcomes from these
activities are discussed in this section. Table 1 shows the timeline of the implementation of the
feasibility project.
Plan & Time Schedule
Contract Activity
Table 1. Implementation Timeline
Project Week
1
26
Contract signature
Project preparations
Survey Questionnaire Development
Analysis about current capabilities
Experimental numerical work
Visit to LVBC secretariat, Kisumu
Stakeholder visits & consultations
Delivery of inception report
Field studies for monitoring
network
Consulting potential promoters
Preparation of draft report
Delivery of draft report
Stakeholder workshop
Delivery of workshop report
Report finalization
Final report delivery
Legend
Activity in progress during this
period
Project week 1 starts April-15th; Week
26 ends October 30th, 2011
13 4. Summary of Activities During Inception Phase of Project
4.1
Project Start-up and Subcontract with Atmospheric Technology Services (ATS)
The project officially started on April, 15th 2011. In accordance with its proposal, NCSU has
entered into a subcontract with the Atmospheric Technology Services Company in the amount of
$23,611 for services proposed.
4.2
Consultative Visits to LVBC Secretariat, Kisumu, Kenya
Professors Fredrick Semazzi (NCSU, Principal Investigator) and Laban Ogallo (Director,
ICPAC; lead investigator, East Africa) made a consultative visit to LVBC secretariat offices in
Kisumu. This meeting resulted in the following important decisions, including the scheduling of
the stakeholders’ workshop for 18-19 July 2011 in Kisumu. LVBC would assist with logistics for
the venue and send out two sets of invitations to the stakeholders. The first set would be sent to
end-users, mainly comprising fishermen, whose attendance costs would be supported by LVBC.
The second set of invitations would be sent to NMHS, NGOs, private sector, and others who
would be expected to cover their costs for attendance. LVBC would also provide a projection
system for the power point presentation..
4.3
Consultative Visit to Representative Key Institutions
Consultative visit to the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) 8 June 2011): Professor
Semazzi met with Mr. Peter Ambenje, the KMD Deputy Director for Forecasting and Regional
Services and the lead KMD consultant on this project. The meeting centered on the project’s
strategy to compile information about the meteorological observational network in Kenya which
is needed for making recommendations to be presented in the consultant’s final report. Mr.
Ambenje provided the initial input to Professor Sandra Yuter of NCSU, the lead investigator for
the terrestrial monitoring component of the feasibility study. This process was replicated for all
the five EAC Partner States to develop a comprehensive assessment for the LVB region.
Consultative visit to the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate
Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC): Professors Semazzi and Ogallo visited and held
strategic discussions with and Dr. Joseph N. Mutemi (Senior Lecturer, Department of
Meteorology, University of Nairobi) on 8 June 2011. The visit focused on the planning of the
remaining activities of the feasibility project. This visit led to the consultative visit to LVBC
secretariat described in section 4.2.
Consultative Visit to Makerere University (14 June 2011) and Ministry of Energy/Uganda (15
June 2011): Following the proposal to engage the university activities, Professor Semazzi visited
Professor Dan Nsubuga, a specialist in satellite and telecommunication technology at Makerere
University. This visit was followed by a meeting with both Professor Nsubuga and Mr. Paul
Mubiru, Commissioner of Energy, Uganda Government. We have consolidated the plans of
Makerere University and the Uganda Ministry of Energy to define the potential partnerships for
implementation phase of this project. We believe that efficient and sustainable meteorological
services must involve partnership among university researchers, policy makers, and the
meteorological institutions that provide technological guidance for decision-making.
14 Consultative visits to EAC NMHS: To prepare the survey questionnaire, Professor James
Kiwanuka-Tondo (NCSU) made consultative visits to the NMHS in Nairobi and Kisumu, Kenya
(9-10 July and 18-19 July 2011, respectively), Uganda (11-13 July 2011), Rwanda (13-14 July
2011), Burundi (15-16 July 2011), and Tanzania (16-17 July 2011). Graduate student Casey
Burleyson made consultative visits to Kenya (6-10 July 2011), Uganda 10-12 July 2011), and
Tanzania (12-13 July 2011) to assess observational and modeling status. Findings are presented
in section 6.2.
4.4
Consultative Visit to Gabba Landing Site
Identification of the weather types of primary concern to the industry is an important entry point
to engage the fishermen in the eventual establishment of an early warning system. During the
inception phase (16 June 2011), Professor Semazzi visited the Gabba Landing site near Kampala,
Uganda, and met with a group of five veteran fishermen to gather preliminary information about
their weather-related concerns and appreciation of weather hazards in marine navigation. Key
input was provided by Kagwa Edwards, a 12-year veteran fisherman based on the Sesse Islands
in the northwest sector of Lake Victoria. All of the fishermen consulted have previously operated
from both coastal and island landings in their work and have extensive indigenous knowledge of
meteorological conditions over Lake Victoria which is important for their industry. Below, is a
brief outline of the lessons from this interview, conducted in the Luganda language, the main
means of communication over the LVB sector in Uganda. These preliminary testimonies were
used to refine the survey questionnaire and inform planning of other related components of the
feasibility study.
(i)
Overloading: Most manually-powered fishing boats have no scale to keep track of
weight limits. Smaller boats are more prone to overloading.
(ii) Age of boats: The structural integrity of boats declines with age. Newer boats are made
of asbestos, but they are much fewer in number than wooden boats.
(iii) Weather factors: Weather is a key source of navigation accidents. However, it also
compounds other sources of accidents. Types of weather known to cause accidents are
listed in the subsection below.
(iv) Wildlife: Major accidents result from hippopotamus and crocodile attacks; this is
seasonally dependent because some types of weather make the often fatal
confrontations more likely.
(v) Overwork: Fatigue and exhaustion are important sources of accidents. This is also
weather related in some circumstances when favorable fishing conditions shift further
into the interior of the lake.
The main weather-related navigation safety concerns raised by the fishermen are listed below.
(i)
Underwater currents: Strong underwater currents cause drift of both fishing boats and
nets to dangerous distances for navigation.
(ii) Underwater vertical currents: Occurrence of vertical currents of water is well known
by fishermen. Such persistent conditions change predator-prey population balance
because larger fish can no longer efficiently hunt smaller prey fish.
(iii) Waterspout weather (locally known as Nsoke): Fishermen have described conditions
very consistent with waterspouts, including dark clouds descending in the form of a
15 ‘tail’ and touching the water surface. This causes water to rise and gives appearance of
the cloud touching the water surface. They describe these systems causing paths of total
destruction as they move from water to land regions. (See accounts of the existence of
waterspouts over Lake Victoria as far back as 1922 [Nature] and more recent video
footage from 2009. Weather prediction tools to be used in generating early warning
alerts must be capable of giving skillful forecasts for these and other potential and other
phenomena that could result in hazardous weather and marine conditions. Also see
Annex 6 for actual eyewitness reports.)
(iv) Seasonality of Intense Winds: Fishermen gave accounts of seasonal strong winds in
the season surrounding the month of July. These winds result in increased levels of
accidents.
(v) Seasonality of Lake Surface Temperatures (LST): Fishermen gave vivid accounts of
the dependence of fish populations on LST. During the season around April, the deeper
waters in the interior of Lake Victoria are warmer than other seasons. However, fish
prefer cooler water and therefore escape to the near coastal waters where the
temperatures are cooler. This creates favorable fishing conditions within five miles
from the lake shore. This is not only safer for the fishermen but also cheaper because of
reduced fuel consumption. Opposite conditions result in fishermen having to go further
into the interior of the lake in search of favorable fishing conditions. Under these
conditions fuel is more expensive and some of the costs are passed on to consumers.
These shifts occur due to variations in the annual cycle as well as interannual
variability. The Survey Questionnaire attempted to isolate the contributions of these
multiple factors.
(vi) Daily Fishermen Work Schedule: The fishermen typically set sail about 7 pm; the
nets are laid from about 10 pm to midnight; the return journey back to shore begins
about 2 am to avoid the most turbulent weather conditions and lightning (land breeze
maximum) and to arrive back on shore in time for the waiting fish vendors and
transporters. However, these timelines may depend of size of fishing boats and season
of the year.
16 5. Stakeholder Workshop: 18-19 July 2011
Participation: The stakeholder workshop was attended by officials from the EAC partner states;
EAC/LVBC secretariat officers, representatives from WMO and ICPAC, Beach Management
Unit members, and the consultants. The agenda and list of participants are attached as Annex 3
and Annex 4, respectively.
Constitution of the Bureau: The Bureau was constituted in accordance with EAC Rules of
Procedure. The workshop was chaired by Mr. Dukundane Dieudonne, Ag. Director, International
Transport Department, Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Equipment, Republic of
Burundi.
Remarks by the Chair and welcoming remarks by LVBC: Mr. Dieudonne welcomed all
participants to the meeting and thanked them for their attendance, noting that the initiative is
important for enhancement of safety of navigation and efficient exploitation of the natural
resources within the LVB. He thanked the Republic of Kenya for hosting the workshop and
wished the participants a fruitful meeting. Dr. Canisius Kanangire, the Executive Secretary, on
behalf of LVBC, welcomed the participants to the meeting and officially opened the workshop.
Major outcomes: The stakeholders made suggestions such as expanding the research scope and
the target population of the survey research to include others who are impacted by the LVB, such
as farmers and energy and natural resources experts as well as other lakes in the LVB. Some
sessions were devoted to the technical issues of the project and training of the survey trainers.
The workshop recommended that the consultant consolidate the original TORs into a smaller
number. The consolidated TORs (CTORs) agreed on by the workshop participants are listed
below.
CTOR1: Develop a plan for skillful guidance for early warning alerts, Search and Rescue
(SAR), and continuous post-disaster evaluation; e.g., losses and needs assessment, safety and
resource utilization (including severe weather and hazardous marine conditions).
CTOR2: Develop a plan for the production of hotspot maps of lake hazards and high quality
meteorological information and services to support the exploitation of natural resources; e.g.,
transportation, energy, health, agriculture, tourism, water resources, resource sharing, and
conflict early warning, etc.)
CTOR3: Develop a plan for a marine, atmospheric and water/air-quality observational
network to support activities in CTORs 1 and 2.
CTOR4: Develop a plan for an efficient dissemination and feedback system for early
warning alerts for safety and utilization of resources, etc.
CTOR5: Develop a coordinated institutional framework to support the components in
CTORs 1-4, including funding options, capacity building, research and other crosscutting
issues; e.g., gender, age, indigenous knowledge, educational awareness, monitoring, and
evaluation.
17 The meeting also recommended the following major tasks for the remaining phase of the project:
(i)
Incorporate workshop stakeholder inputs in consultants’ recommendations, including
the need to involve stakeholders in research projects and the analysis results from the
questionnaire.
(ii) Conduct intense consultation with potential promoters for the implementation phase of
the initiative.
(iii) Refine recommendations reported in the workshop for observational needs, prediction
system attributes, and cost estimates for the various projects.
(iv) Finalize preparation of report.
6. Sub-projects Reports and Recommendations
6.1 Assessment of Stakeholders’ Needs
6.1.1 Training of Meteorological Officers to Conduct Survey
Survey research was conducted among a purposive sample of fishermen and commercial ship
operators in the lake region to analyze the social, cultural, and economic variables that affect
their perceptions of the meteorological services on the lake. The survey questionnaire was
administered by the meteorological officers from the five EAC partner states. The
meteorological officers received training in survey research administration during the workshop
in Kisumu, Kenya. One of the key reasons to do the training at the workshop was to ensure that
the officers got to know each other so that they would be able to collaborate and help each other
in case of unforeseen difficulties during the administration of the survey research. The
participants received an overview of the sampling procedures, the role of the interviewer, and
interview procedures. Training was concluded with role playing to practice the administration of
the survey and to review the data collection and management process.
6.1.2 Summary Results of the Survey
In Figure 1, below, we show some of the pie chart results from the survey questionnaire returns.
In this report, we present only some of the highlights. We take this information into account in
designing the various projects proposed for the implementation phase in section 8.
18 Figure 1: (top left): The most important navigation hazards mentioned by respondents; (top right) the most important
weather hazards mentioned by respondents); (middle-left) the specific weather hazards experienced in the past
three months by respondents; (middle-right) the season in which respondents experience severe storms on Lake
Victoria; (bottom-left) the level of satisfaction with information about weather changes provided by
meteorology/weather station in the region; (bottom-right) sources of information for respondents regarding weather
in their districts or regions. (i)
The most common languages of respondents are Kiswahili (23.10%), Luganda (23.10%),
and Kiswahili/English (12.03%). This means that to reach the largest audience in the
LVB, English, Kiswahili, and Luganda should be used by the Lake Victoria Commission.
However, this is one of those questions where it may have merit to consider each country
separately than basing the percentages on the total number of participants in the survey.
If we adopt this option then obviously Luo would be one of the leading languages used
by the fishermen in Kenya and could be included among the languages to transmit the
meteorological warning alerts.
(ii)
The single most common occupation of respondents was fishing at 43.99%, followed by
fish trader/fishmonger/fish dealer at 15.51%. Boat owner/commercial ship operators were
4.75%, fish transporters 3.48%, and fish processors 3.16%. Overall about 70% of all
19 respondents were involved in work that is related to Lake Victoria. This means that we
were successful in getting responses from the target of our survey research.
(iii)
The most important navigation hazards mentioned by respondents were storms at
28.80%, strong winds at 14.87%, and strong waves at 13.29%.
(iv)
The most important weather hazards mentioned by respondents were strong winds at
43.04%, followed by storms at 32.59%.
(v)
The most common specific weather hazards experienced in the past three months
mentioned by respondents were winds at 32.28%, followed by storms at 18.35%.
(vi)
When asked whether they knew where the meteorological/weather stations are located in
their regions, the majority of respondents (59.81%) indicated that they did not know.
Only 38.29% indicated that they knew. A cross tabulation analysis was conducted which
showed that only 33.3% of the fishermen, only 31.9% of the fish traders, and only 18.2%
of the fish transporters knew where the meteorology/weather stations are located in their
regions. This means that the meteorology/weather stations in the LVB must do a better
job of informing the public about where they are located. This is critical to provide the
public with specific information about weather changes and emergencies.
(vii)
When asked whether they knew about the services provided by meteorology/weather
station in the region, only 31.65% of the respondents indicated that they knew, while the
rest either did not know or did not respond. When asked how much they knew about the
services provided by the meteorology/weather station in the region, only 31.65% knew a
lot or quite a lot or little or very little. The rest were missing or not sure. This indicates
that the meteorology/weather stations must educate the general public about their
services. This will require a major awareness creation campaign strategy. It is suggested
that further funding be requested by the LVBC to conduct a well-organized awareness
creation.
(viii)
When asked how much they knew about weather changes on Lake Victoria from the
meteorology/weathers station in their region, only 39.44% knew a lot, quite a lot, little, or
very little. The rest did not respond or were not sure. Furthermore, when asked how much
they knew about storms on Lake Victoria from the meteorology/weather station in their
region only 26.58% knew a lot, quite a lot, little, or very little. The rest wdid not respond
or were not sure. In addition, when asked how much they knew about safety on Lake
Victoria from the meteorology/weather station in their region only 26.27.27% knew a lot,
quite a lot, little, or very little. The rest did not respond or were not sure. This indicates
that the meteorology/weather stations must do a better job of disseminating information
about weather changes, storms, and safety in the LVB to improve safety of navigation for
the public.
(ix)
When asked in which season they experience severe storms on Lake Victoria,
respondents indicated the following: June-August, 55.06%, March-May, 24.68%,
December-February, 9.49%, and September-November, 6.96%, while 3.80% did not
20 respond. This information is critical because it gives the meteorology/weather stations an
indication of which season to pay most attention to regarding impeding storms and hence
provide greater information to the general public in order to improve safety of navigation
in the LVB.
(x)
When asked whether they knew anyone who died or whose boat capsized in the past
three months, a majority of respondents (61.71%) indicated that they did. This confirms
the fact that the LVBC must improve safety of navigation in the LVB as a matter of
urgency.
(xi)
When asked about their level of satisfaction with the information about weather changes
provided by the meteorology/weather stations in their regions, a majority of respondents
(60.13%) were either very unsatisfied or unsatisfied. Furthermore, when asked about their
level of satisfaction with the information about safety on Lake Victoria provided by the
meteorology/weather stations in their regions, a majority of respondents (62.02%) were
either very unsatisfied or unsatisfied. A cross tabulation analysis showed that a majority
across all categories of those involved in activities related to Lake Victoria—fishermen,
fish traders, fish transporters, boat owners/commercial ship operators, and fish
processors—were either very unsatisfied or unsatisfied. This confirms that the LVBC
should strengthen the meteorology/weather services in the basin and provide adequate
information about weather and safety in the basin.
(xii)
When asked whether the respondents had travelled by ship or boat on Lake Victoria in
the past three months, a majority (79.11%) indicated that they had. Furthermore, when
asked how often they travel by ship or boat, a majority (63.45%) indicated always or
sometimes. This means that the lake is an important form of transport for the residents of
the LVB and hence the need to improve safety of navigation. Indeed, it may be the only
form of transport for those who live on islands. On the other hand, when asked how
comfortable they have felt traveling on Lake Victoria by ship or boat in the past three
months, only 39.24% indicated that they have felt either comfortable or very comfortable.
The rest were very comfortable, uncomfortable, unsure or nonresponsive. This confirms
the need for improving safety of navigation in the LVB.
(xiii)
Respondents were asked whether they had been fishing on Lake Victoria in the past three
months. A slight majority (51.27%) indicated that they had. In addition, we the distance
from the landing site to the spot where they normally fish. A majority (54.43%) indicated
a distance of 1-10 kilometers. Another 22.15% indicated a distance of 11-20 kilometers.
Only 23.42% indicated a distance of over 20 kilometers. This means that the LVBC
should put more emphasis on the distance of 1-20 kilometers in terms of improving safety
of navigation and installing warning signs as well as rescue equipment. However, they
should know that a sizable number (10.13%) fish more than 30 kilometers away. When
asked about their level of comfort while fishing on Lake Victoria, only 23.10% of
respondents reported feeling either very comfortable or comfortable. The rest were very
uncomfortable, uncomfortable, unsure, or nonresponsive. This further confirms the need
for improving safety of navigation in the LVB.
21 (xiv)
We asked the respondents what time they normally set out for fishing. The largest
percentage (39.72%) indicated that they set out before 8:00 a.m. Another 28.37% set out
between 4:00 pm and 6:00 p.m., while 16.31% set out after 6:00 p.m. When asked what
time they normally set out for the return journey from the fishing site, the largest
percentage of respondents (46.76%) indicated that they set out for the return journey
before 8:00 a.m. Another 19.42% set out to return between 9:00 and 12:00 p.m., while
12.23% set out to return between 4:00-6:00 p.m. This means that the LVBC should lay
more emphasis on these peak times in providing warning alerts navigation safety.
(xv)
When asked about the level of satisfaction with the exploitation of Lake Victoria for
fishing, the majority (64.87%) reported that they were either very unsatisfied or
unsatisfied. Only 26.90% reported having been very satisfied or satisfied. Regarding
exploitation for fresh water a majority, 52.53% reported that they were either very
unsatisfied or unsatisfied, while only 41.14% reported that they were either very satisfied
or satisfied. On the issue of satisfaction with exploitation for irrigation, a bigger
percentage (45.57%) of respondents reported that they were either very unsatisfied or
unsatisfied, while only 37.34% reported that they were very satisfied or satisfied.
(xvi)
When asked about the extent to which the lake contributed to the spread of diseases, a
large majority (78.79%, 74.46%, and 52.53%) responded that the lake contributes to the
spread of HIV/AIDS, typhoid, and malaria, respectively. This means that we should be
aware that the lake is considered not just a safety hazard, but a health hazard as well;
hence the need to seek for funds for prevention campaigns to reduce the health hazard
posed by the lake.
(xvii) We asked the respondents whether they have cell phones. A majority (82.28%) reported
that they did. On the other hand, while 79.5% of the fishermen had cell phones, a sizable
percentage (20.5%) did not. When asked how many times they used the cell phone to get
information regarding Lake Victoria in the past three months, only 19.94% of the general
public reported doing so always, most of the time, or occasionally, while 43.04% did not
use it at all or only used rarely. However, among the fishermen, a sizable percentage
(48.6%) report using it always or most of the time. This means that although the cell
phone is not a major source of information for the general public, it is a major source of
information for the fishermen. The LVBC should seek funds for generating a list of
fishermen cell phone numbers for communicating safety information.
(xviii) When asked where they get information about weather in their districts or regions,
48.42% reported that they got it from radio, TV, or both. Only 7.28% reported getting
information from meteorology/weather stations. When asked who they trust for such
information, 20.88% mentioned local knowledge or local fishermen, while 9.81%
mentioned the meteorology/weather stations and 9.18% mentioned the media. This means
that the meteorology/weather stations should do a better job of disseminating information
about the weather in the basin as well as creating trust.
(xix)
When asked what else should be done by the LVBC, meteorology/weather stations, or
government to improve safety of navigation, 13.92% mentioned provision of life jackets,
22 13.29% mentioned improving meteorology services, and 40.19% mentioned other things
that could not be broken down into separate categories. This information provides an idea
of what the respondents think are the most critical ways to improve safety of navigation.
6.2 Assessment of atmospheric and marine, monitoring and modeling requirements
6.2.1 Assessment of Atmospheric Observational Needs
Meteorological agencies in East African countries issue forecasts to protect the safety of citizens
on and around Lake Victoria. These efforts are directly in line with the LVBC’s goal to enhance
the safety of users of the lake. In our initial project proposal, we discussed nowcasts, or shortterm forecasts, as a way to achieve these goals. Nowcasts can be used to warn citizens on the
lake of approaching storms and give them enough lead time to take precautionary actions. The
ability to nowcast is currently limited by the lack of information about weather conditions
directly over the lake. Without sufficient information about current conditions, the forecasters
have no opportunity to convert the broader daily forecasts into useable warnings about specific
storms. Our tasks, as outlined in the initial proposal, were threefold:
(i)
(ii)
Develop a summary of precipitation characteristics over Lake Victoria.
Understand how the current observation networks are used operationally to make daily
weather forecasts.
(iii) Develop recommendations for deployment of new sensors to improve the nowcasting
capabilities of the meteorological services in the region and improve the navigational
safety of the users of the lake
These three tasks dealt directly with Consolidated Terms of Reference (CTOR1, CTOR2,
CTOR3).
The first two tasks served to inform our recommendations in the third task. We could not make
meaningful recommendations without learning about the specific challenges the agencies are
facing and how they are dealing with them using the data they currently have. To this end, the
visits to the meteorological agencies in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania were very useful in
helping us earn about the state of forecasting in the EAC. We are deeply indebted to the many
individuals who participated in very open and informative conversations with us during our visit.
In this final report, we will first address the nature of precipitation occurring over the lake,
including specific severe weather threats which directly lead to hazards. We will then briefly
summarize the status of the current observation network and how it is being utilized in each of
the three countries. Finally, we carry out an in-depth discussion of our recommendations for
improving upon the current observation network.
6.2.2 Precipitation Characteristics over Lake Victoria
(i)
Methods: In order to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall that occurs
over the LVB, we have developed a high-spatial-resolution precipitation climatology
utilizing the U.S. National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA) Tropical
Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite’s scanning precipitation radar (PR). The
23 TRMM PR allows us to view precipitation across a large domain using the same
instrument, providing a consistent analysis for each of the countries involved. We
compiled ten years (1998-2007) of PR data onto a 5 km x 5 km regular grid for the
domain spanning 10°S to 10°N and 25°E to 45°E. From the gridded product, we are
able to assess precipitation frequency and intensity across the diurnal cycle. In addition
to radar reflectivity, another measure of storm intensity can be formulated using the
TRMM satellite’s Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS), which detects the presence of
lightning within storms viewed by the satellite. The presence of lightning is a rough
proxy for storm intensity because it often occurs in regions of strong vertical motion
within deep tropical convection over land.
(ii)
General precipitation climatology: The multi-year climatology demonstrates that the
precipitation occurring over the LVB is dynamically complex and fascinating. Breaking
the data into three-hour intervals across the diurnal cycle allows us to see the effect of
the land-lake breeze that forms as a result of differential heating between the lake and
the surrounding continent. During the day, the land heats up faster than the water,
eventually generating a pressure gradient that forces an onshore wind (from the lake
onto the land-lake breeze). At night, the pattern is reversed as the land cools much more
rapidly and the flow becomes offshore (from the land onto the lake). The diurnal cycle
of precipitation frequency, shown in Figure 2, clearly shows that the land-lake breeze
interacts with the easterly trade winds in a predictable but interesting fashion. During
the day, the onshore flow is convergent with the trade winds on the eastern side of the
lake, resulting in a lifting mechanism in the convergence zone and enhanced
precipitation frequency on the eastern shore. On the western side of the lake, the
offshore breeze is in the same easterly direction as the trade winds, resulting in linear
acceleration of the surface winds and divergent motion on the western shore and
reduced precipitation frequency there. At night, the pattern is reversed and the offshore
flow is divergent on the eastern side of the lake and convergent on the western side,
resulting in enhanced precipitation over the western portion of the lake.
Previous nested-model studies by Anyah, Semazzi and Xie (2006 and references
therein) showed that the distribution of Lake Surface Temperature (LST) over Lake
Victoria plays an important role in the modulation of basin’s weather and climate. Their
results (see Figure 2) showed that the western region of the lake is a source of warm
water because it is relatively shallower and the water column is heated up much more
during the day than the rest of the lake. In addition to the effect due to the interaction of
the prevailing easterlies and the lake-land breeze systems this mechanism contributes to
the presence of maximum convective rainfall over the western part of the lake. If the
prevailing-wind-driven water circulation gyres extending across the entire lake can be
24 Figure 2: The distribution of precipitation frequency in three-hour time blocks across the diurnal cycle. The frequency
plots are overlaid on a map of the surface observation sites in the East African countries.
25 confirmed by observations, its effect, based on numerical results, is to redistribute the
excess heating over the western sector of Lake Victoria throughout the rest of the lake
and thereby provide a mechanism by which rainfall may be enhanced over the entire
lake due to the role of LST.
For this reason, accurate forecasting of severe weather over Lake Victoria requires
comprehensive monitoring of the entire depth of the water and weather prediction
models that take into account the two-way interaction between the atmosphere and the
water currents. Moreover, as indicated earlier, fishermen also need information about
the state of water currents which often compromise their marine navigation safety.
Furthermore, LST information is needed by fishermen to assess the availability of fish,
thus again indicating need for a prediction system that fully takes into account water
currents, which play an important role in determining the LST patterns. Nearly all
weather prediction models that exist today lack this capability; this limitation
potentially constitutes an unacceptable deficiency in the models currently being used in
experimental mode by NMHS throughout the EAC region. Specific recommendations
will be made in this report to address this shortcoming.
The complex interactions among the land-lake breeze, the water currents and the role of
the lake’s bathymetry (see section 7.4.2), LST, and the easterly trade winds seems to be
a major controlling factor in the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation over
the basin. Combining these simple dynamics with the orographic enhancement of
precipitation in the eastern Kenyan highlands yields a nearly complete view of the
precipitation mechanisms. The remaining precipitation is likely convection that results
from the strong daytime heating on the land. It is our hope that the climatology of
precipitation frequency generated in our analysis can be used to validate long-term
modeling efforts over Lake Victoria. Correctly forecasting the change from onshore to
offshore winds is a critical step toward obtaining accurate precipitation forecasts for the
regions around and over the lake.
(iii) Specific severe weather threats: In order to improve the nowcasting capabilities of
meteorological agencies protecting the lake, we must first understand the major areas of
concern. Analysis of the precipitating storms over the LVB shows that a large majority
of the storms are quite intense. Such severe thunderstorms constitute a persistent and
important threat to public safety. Typical convective storms are deep (> 6 km) and
intense, with the mode of surface reflectivity being greater than 35 dBZ (rain rate > 50
mm hr-1). The distribution of maximum near surface reflectivity observed by the
TRMM PR, shown in Figure 3, is evidence of the intensity of precipitation reaching the
surface. In Figure 4, we show that the storms occurring around the lake often have
reflectivity greater than 40 dBZ at heights well over 6 km. This is a clear indicator that
the storms are often producing large graupel or hail. Our analysis also shows that the
storms are often fairly small in area and that individual storms are rarely part of a larger
synoptically organized disturbance. This systemic disorganization is consistent with
weak synoptic forcing throughout the equatorial tropics.
26 Figure 3: Distribution of the maximum near surface reflectivity observed by the TRMM PR in the Lake Victoria region.
Figure 4: Frequency of 40 dBZ echoes occurring higher than 6.5 km, observed by the TRMM satellite (from Zipser et al.,
2006).
Two specific forecasting challenges were discussed in our meetings with the EAC
meteorological agencies—flooding in the region immediately east of Lake Victoria and
the damaging impact of hail on the tea leaf crops that are grown in eastern parts of Lake
Victoria in Kenya. The storms associated with these threats are described as slow
moving because of the relatively weak trade winds in the region. As a result, the
cumulative rainfall produced during the lifetime of the storm can fall in a very small
area and produce flash flooding. Additionally, forecasters are concerned with lightning
produced from intense thunderstorms. An analysis of global lightning frequency, shown
in Figure 5, shows that the equatorial African region encompassing Lake Victoria has
the highest density of lightning in the world. Lightning is a serious threat to life and
property, particularly for boaters on the open waters of the lake.
Figure 5: Global distribution of lightning strikes observed by the TRMM satellite. (From Zipser et al. 2006)
27 During the stakeholder workshop held in Kisumu, Kenya, on 18-19 July, we had the
opportunity to talk in depth with representatives of the fishermen on Lake Victoria
about their specific severe weather concerns. First and foremost, they are worried about
high winds occurring over the lake and resulting in waves large enough to capsize their
relatively small fishing boats. Most of the severe and threatening instances of high
winds over the lake occur in the vicinity of severe thunderstorms. Improving the
prediction and training capabilities for severe thunderstorms would thus improve
warnings to fishermen that high winds and large waves are more or less likely on a
given day.
6.2.3 Utilization of the Current Observational Network
(i)
Atmospheric observations currently collected: The meteorological agencies in each
country provided us with detailed information on what types of sensors they have
currently operating and how they are used. The locations of individual surface
meteorological observation sites are shown below in Figure 6. The stations are plotted
on top of a geographic map of elevation in the larger EAC. Most of the surface sites are
able to record temperature, pressure, relative humidity, and precipitation amounts. The
observations are transmitted to the central forecasting offices in intervals between
fifteen minutes and one hour, meaning that the forecasters have surface observation
data available in near real-time. The surface data are shared among countries in realtime, providing valuable information about the regional surface characteristics to each
individual forecast desk. This is done largely to support aviation forecasting for planes
coming into and out of the EAC. In all of the sites we were able to visit, the data
collected were of high quality. The instruments were well-maintained, frequently
serviced, and calibrated by technicians from each of the meteorological agencies.
Figure 6: The location of surface observation sites, indicated by red dots, overlaid on a map of elevation (in meters) for
the East African region.
28 (ii)
Weather and climate forecasting using the current observational network: Surface
observations are plotted and analyzed by forecasters in each country to identify surface
features such as temperature or pressure boundaries. Regions of convergence or
divergence, surface instability, and enhanced surface moisture are analyzed throughout
the day. The likelihood of severe storms within a given region is then incorporated into
the 24-hour and four-day forecasts made daily by each central office. In addition to
being used in a nowcasting or climate forecasting sense, the surface observations are
stored and used to validate the three-month seasonal forecast products issued for each
of the individual countries. Comparisons between observed and predicted rainfall are
used to improve future seasonal outlooks. The ICPAC/IGAD Regional Climate Outlook Forum (RCOF) program which provides
the seasonal outlooks has made tremendous progress since its inception ten years ago
(http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/documents/RCOFsBrochure.pdf).
The
RCOF process illustrated typically includes the following components:
•
•
•
•
Meetings of regional and international climate experts to develop a consensus for
the regional climate outlook using national, regional, and global information,
typically in a probabilistic form;
The Forum proper, which involves climate scientists, representatives from the user
sectors and the media in identification of impacts and implications, and the
formulation of response strategies;
A training workshop on seasonal climate prediction to strengthen the capacity of the
national and regional climate scientists;
Special outreach sessions involving media experts to develop effective
communications strategies;
A consensus prediction process underlining RCOF operations consists of the following
elements:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Determination of the critical time for development of the climate forecast for the
region in question;
Assembly of a group of experts:
- Large-scale prediction specialists,
- Regional and local climate applications and forecast/downscaling specialists,
and
- Stakeholders representative of climate-sensitive sectors;
Review of current large-scale (global and regional) climate anomalies and the most
recent forecasts for their evolution;
Review of current climate conditions, their impacts at local, national, and regional
levels, and national-scale forecasts;
Production of a forecast with related output considering all factors (e.g., maps of
temperature and precipitation anomalies) to be applied and fine-tuned
(downscaling) by NMHSs in the region to meet national needs;
Discussion, with active involvement of stakeholders representatives of climatesensitive sectors, of applications of the forecast and related climate information to
29 •
•
climate-sensitive sectors in the region; consideration practical products for
development by NMHSs;
Development of strategies to effectively communicate the information to decisionmakers in all affected sectors;
Critique of the session and its results:
- Documentation achieved improvements to the process and any challenges
encountered,
- Established steps required to further improve the process for subsequent
sessions,
- Verification of the previous year’s forecast and evaluation of its use, and
- Training session (in new techniques and methods).
The surface data are archived alongside a large set of volunteer-provided data which
record 24-hour temperature and precipitation observations. These long-term data sets
provide a critical climate data record which will be essential for correctly interpreting
future changes to the East African climate system.
The final daily forecast in each country is largely based on the analysis of output from a
handful of regional mesoscale models run daily in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam. These
numerical weather prediction systems are initialized using the analyzed output from
global models such as the Global Forecast System (GFS) or the European Centre for
Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Numerical models can provide useful
guidance for forecasters concerned with severe storms, but their usefulness is
conditioned on their ability to interpret the current weather scenarios and integrate the
patterns forward in time. In the future, mesoscale models for the LVB region would be
well served to utilize the surface data being collected to improve the initial conditions
in the model. Additionally, any future radar or buoy data collected could be assimilated
into the models to improve their predictive capabilities. We discuss these possibilities
in detail in our recommendations section.
In each of the three countries we visited, forecasts are being generated and
disseminated once daily, typically in the morning (before noon). In some cases,
individual forecasts are made for a specific city or generalized region, but on the whole,
forecasts are the same for large sections of each country. This could be due in part to
the limited amount of new weather information needed to fine-tune the daily forecast
for a given city. The forecasts are disseminated to the public mainly through common
media channels, including television, radio, and newspapers. Several of the forecasters
we encountered said that radio was the most likely method by which citizens and endusers were able to hear the daily forecasts.
6.2.4 Assessment of Marine Observational Needs
Currently, there are no routine observations for monitoring the circulation and potentially
hazardous water currents in Lake Victoria. Recommendations for a network of marine
observations to support navigation safety and exploitation of natural resources over the basin are
provided in section 7.4.
30 6.2.5 Assessment of Atmospheric Modeling Needs
Under this task of the feasibility study, computer model simulations were performed to
complement the atmospheric and marine observational assessment in sections 6.2, above. The
regional model employed here is the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model
(Skamarock et al. 2005; Wang et al. 2010) with the Advanced Research WRF core. WRF is a
fully compressible, non-hydrostatic numerical weather prediction model suitable for a broad
spectrum of applications across scales ranging from meters to thousands of kilometers. It uses
the Arakawa-C grid and the terrain-following, hydrostatic-pressure vertical coordinate system
with the top of the model being a constant pressure surface. It utilizes the third-order RungeKutta scheme for the time integration scheme and has second through sixth order advection
schemes available for the spatial discretization. Various physical processes are incorporated in
WRF including: microphysics, cumulus parameterization, planetary boundary layer (PBL),
surface layer, land-surface, and longwave and shortwave radiations, with several options
available for each process.
Focusing on the precipitation around LVB, WRF is configured in the regional climate mode for
the LVB, dynamically downscaling from the global to regional scales. The regional model
domain is centered at (0oN, 35oE) with the Mercator map projection. Figure 7 gives the model
domain coverage and terrain. It has 271 x 271 grid points in the horizontal with the grid spacing
of 12 km, and 30 sigma levels in the vertical with the model top at 50 hPa. The following physics
schemes including: the WSM5 microphysics scheme (Hong et al. 2004), the Kain-Fritsch
cumulus scheme (Kain and Fritsch 1990), the Yonsei University (YSU) PBL scheme (Hong et al.
2006), the MM5 surface layer scheme based on similarity theory, the Noah Land Surface Model
(Chen and Dudhia 2001), and the CAM3 shortwave and longwave radiation schemes (Collins et
al. 2004) are chosen in the regional downscaling simulation. The simulation starts at 00 UTC 21
December 2006 and ends at 00 UTC 01 January 2008. The first ten days are considered as the
spin-up stage for the regional model to adjust itself to its high resolution regional-scale terrain
and landuse features. The whole year model results of 2007 are used in the following analyses.
The NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) one degree data are used to drive the regional WRF
model by providing initial and boundary conditions. Lateral boundary conditions are updated
every 6 hours and boundary relaxation zone is extended to 10 grid points. In addition, low
boundary conditions including sea surface temperatures (SSTs), vegetation fraction and albedo
are also updated every 6 hours. 31 Figure 7. The regional WRF model domain and terrain.
Figure 8 gives the annual mean daily precipitation frequency and rain rate during 1997-2008
from TRMM PR data, and the regional model simulated annual mean rain rate for 2007. Here
precipitation frequency is defined as the percentage of observations at a given location for which
rainfall accumulation is above 1.2 mm, a three-hour accumulation at a rain rate of 0.4 mm/hr,
which corresponds to a near surface reflectivity of 18 dBZ, a threshold for TRMM PR to detect
rainfalls (drizzle and light rain in stratocumulus are not detected by the PR). In terms of rainfall
frequency, high percentage are located in east Republic of the Congo, west and central Ethiopia,
and over Lake Victoria and its east coast (Figure 8a). Correspondingly, annual mean daily rain
rates are stronger in these areas (Figure 8b). The simulated pattern of annual mean daily rain rate
for 2007 from the regional WRF model (Figure 8c) matches very well with that from the TRMM
PR observation. In addition, the model seems to be able to better capture the topography (e.g.,
Mts. Kilimanjaro and Kenya) induced rainfalls than the TRMM PR data. This might be because
the TRMM PR data do not have enough samples to catch these features. Figures 9-13 show a
sample of the modeling results.
Diurnal cycle for annual average: Figures 9 and 10 show the three-hourly precipitation
frequency and three-hourly rain rate averaged over 1998-2007 from TRMM PR data for each
three-hour interval. Focusing on the Lake Victoria and its contiguous region, one can see that
high percentage of rain frequency and strong rain rate are located right over the lake during 0006 UTC (lake-rain phase), while in the surrounding areas (east coast of the lake and west to the
lake basin) during 12-18 UTC (lake-dry phase). The other two periods: 06-12 UTC and 18-24
UTC can be considered as transition stages between the above-mentioned two phases. The
averaged three-hourly rain rate for 2007 from the WRF regional climate model for each threehour interval is given in Figure 11. The two phases of lake-rain and lake-dry can be clearly
identified in the model results. The transition from lake-dry to lake-rain stage (18-24 UTC) is
also very similar to that of the TRMM PR data, though some differences between model
simulation and TRMM PR data exist for the transition stage (06-12 UTC) from the lake-rain to
32 lake-dry phases. The model performs very well by capturing the diurnal precipitation cycle in the
Lake Victoria region, although the model simulated results only covers year of 2007 (Figure 13).
Figure 8. (top, left) annual mean daily precipitation frequency; (top, right) rain rate during 1998-2007 from TRMM PR
data; (middle, left) annual mean daily rain rate from CPC 0.5 degree data for 2007; (middle, right) annual mean daily rain
rate from CRU V3.1 0.5 degree data for 2007; (bottom, left) annual mean daily rain rate from TRMM 3B42 data for 2007;
and (bottom, right) model simulated annual mean daily rain rate for 2007.
33 Figure 9. Three-hourly precipitation frequency during 1998-2007 from TRMM PR data. (Left, from top to bottom) 00-03,
03-06, 06-09, 09-12 UTC; (ight, from top to bottom) 12-15, 15-18, 18-21, 21-24 UTC.
34 Figure 10. Three-hourly rain rate during 1998-2007 from TRMM PR data. (Left, from top to bottom) 00-03, 03-06, 06-09,
09-12 UTC; (ight, from top to bottom) 12-15, 15-18, 18-21, 21-24 UTC.
35 Figure 11. Three-hourly rain rate during 1998-2007 from TRMM 3B42 data. (Left, from top to bottom) valid at 00, 03, 06,
09 UTC; (right, from top to bottom) valid at 12, 15, 18, 21 UTC.
36 Figure 12. Averaged three-hourly rain rate for 2007 from model simulation. (Left, from top to bottom) 00-03, 03-06, 06-09,
09-12 UTC; (right, from top to bottom) 12-15, 15-18, 18-21, 21-24 UTC .
37 Figure 13. Time series of averaged rain rate over different regions (1x1 degree boxes) above/around Lake Victoria, (top)
from TRMM PR annual average during 1998-2007, (middle) from TRMM 3B42 data for 2007, and (bottom) from model
simulation for 2007.
38 Conclusions from Model Results: These preliminary results make it clear that the WRF model is
capable of producing the observed evolution of the weather systems that affect navigation safety
over Lake Victoria. Later in this report we propose two project (Projects 1 and 3) which will use
this or similar prediction tools to produce experimental early warning alerts for the fishermen
and transporters who use Lake Victoria. A comprehensive model will have to be coupled with a
lake model to provide the capabilities to forecast the occurrence of hazardous water currents.
6.2.6 Assessment of Marine Modeling Needs
Previous studies at North Carolina State University (NCSU), led by Professor Semazzi, showed
that by adopting the traditional modeling approach—in which the lake hydrodynamics are
neglected and the formulation is entirely based on thermodynamics—is not entirely satisfactory
for the LVB. Such a strategy precludes realistic modeling of the transport of heat from the heat
surplus regions to the cooler regions of the lake, and thereby results in degraded simulation of
the climate downstream over the rest of the lake and the surrounding land regions. NCSU’s
studies demonstrate that numerical models are capable of reproducing the atmospheric evolution
of important weather systems over the LVB, as will be seen in 7.4 but also the marine currents
which could be important for the production of early warnings for navigation.
The resulting surface water circulation (Figure14a) transports heat from the surplus regions to
the cooler regions and generates an asymmetric lake surface temperature pattern. This secondary
feature in the surface temperature structure (Figure 14b) cannot be generated by the standard
version of the RegCM3 model, since the simple static lake model formulation is not capable of
supporting horizontal advection.
Implications of previous results on marine navigation safety: Below are some of the modelsimulated meteorological phenomena that could be important for marine navigation safety. These
motions must be confirmed with actual observations before the models can be used with
confidence for routine operational prediction purposes.
•
•
•
•
•
Strong near-coastal water currents across Lake Victoria;
Existence of multiple water-current regimes across Lake Victoria;
Existence of costal eddies across Lake Victoria;
Large gradients in lake surface temperatures across Lake Victoria;
Large gradients in convective activity distribution across Lake Victoria.
Figure 15 shows the annual climatological pattern of rainfall that seems to be a result of several
factors including the location of mountains (right), the prevailing winds and the bathymetry of
the lake. If these factors are important in modulating the regional weather, then the prediction
model for severe weather must be able to represent them accurately.
39 Lake Water Currents & Temperature Patterns
(complex water currents and LST gradients that may be related to navigation safety)
Fig.14a,b: Model simulated lake water currents and temperature pattern which may be related to navigation safety.
Climatological Annual Observed Terrestrial
Conditions
(complex rainfall gradients that may be related to navigation safety)
Figure 15: (left) Annual climatological rainfall, and (right) regional orography
40 7. Recommendations for Atmospheric and Marine, Monitoring and Modeling
Requirements
7.1 Primary Recommendations
Our final task was to recommend additional sensors and activities that would aid in improving
short term forecasts (nowcasts) over Lake Victoria. In order to provide accurate nowcasts and
warnings to lake users, forecasters in each of the countries need four essential pieces of
information: the location of severe storms occurring over the lake; the speed and direction in
which the storms are moving; an estimate of the intensity of the storms in order to gauge how
much risk they pose to citizens on the lake; and the strength of the surface water currents. In
addition they must have lake surface temperature information since the fishermen believe this
moderates fish populations. (see section 4.4 Gabba consultative visit). Once the forecasters have
this information, they need the capability to communicate these threats to users on the lake in a
reasonable amount of time. Below, in section 7.3, is a list of potential options which we believe
would give forecasters these critical pieces of information, positively enhancing current forecast
abilities and providing the capability to issue useable nowcasts. In addition to recommending
specific instruments, we also make a handful of broad recommendations which we believe will
positively enhance the services provided by the meteorological departments around Lake
Victoria.
Our most important recommendation is that the full support and resources of the LVBC, and any
other agencies concerned with safety over Lake Victoria, be directed toward finalizing the
installation of the two scanning weather radars in Eldoret, Kenya, and Mwanza, Tanzania.
Scanning weather radars provide forecasters with a real-time, spatially coherent view of storms
within their forecast domains. Radar information can be used to
determine the size and intensity of storms, the direction they are moving, and whether the storm
is strengthening or weakening. Relationships between the radar return and the rain rate at the
surface provide estimates of how much rain is falling or has fallen in a particular area. These
features make weather radars an extremely valuable tool for forecasters concerned with intense
precipitating storms such as those that commonly threaten the safety of fishermen on Lake
Victoria. Weather radars can provide real-time areal coverage of developing storms that can
cause flash flooding and hail. Areas of intense precipitation and hail can be quickly identified by
the radar, allowing forecasters to issue warnings with useable lead times for areas in the path of
storms.
The East African nations recognize the power of weather radars and have plans to incorporate
them into their weather observation networks around Lake Victoria. In Kenya, there are radars in
place in Nairobi and Mombasa. While these two radars are not yet operational, the Kenya
Meteorological Department is hopeful to make them operational in the near future. With regard
to the Lake Victoria region, the Kenyans have plans to place an S-band scanning weather radar at
the Eldoret International Airport, located approximately 100 km northeast of the lake. During our
visit to the proposed Eldoret radar site, we were encouraged to learn that the project has been
strongly supported by the aviation authority in Eldoret and that they have the infrastructure in
place to support such a large investment. The Tanzanian Meteorological Agency is currently
running one scanning weather radar in Dar es Salaam, and is in the procurement stage of putting
41 a weather radar in Mwanza, located on the south-central shore of Lake Victoria. They already
have an excellent site selected, which would provide coverage over much of Lake Victoria.
Weather radars would not only provide forecasters with valuable observations over land, but also
over the lake itself where observations are sparse. A schematic of the coverage area of the two
radars in Eldoret and Mwanza is shown in Figure 16. In this set-up the range rings have a 150 km
radius. Operationally, certain radars such as the S-bands currently owned by the Kenyan agency
can have ranges closer to 250 km, thus bringing the coverage of the two radars much closer
together. For the first time, forecasters would be able to directly track storms over the open
waters of the lake. This ability would give forecasters the opportunity to utilize a warning system
to alert fishermen, ferries, and other lake users of impending dangers from approaching storms.
Data collected from radars in Eldoret, Kenya, and Mwanza, Tanzania could be shared over the
internet in real-time, allowing forecasters in each country to have information about where
storms are located over the lake. While weather radars are quite costly and do have their
limitations, the addition of radar observations to the forecasting offices in the EAC would have
the highest probability of immediately improving the safety of users of Lake Victoria.
Fig. 16: 150 km range rings for the two proposed S-band radars in Mwanza, Tanzania, and Eldoret, Kenya.
A less costly option would be to deploy a system of four to five lightning detection and location
sensors around the lake or on an island in the lake. Lightning detection sensors could give
forecasters the location of severe storms and could be used to back out estimates of storm motion
and intensity. While intensity estimates from lightning are not as clear to interpret as radar data,
some degree of information would be provided about storm severity. Because of the high
frequency of lightning associated with the deep storms over the lake, lightning detection sensors
would likely be able to show a large majority of the storms which threaten the safety of
fishermen and other users of Lake Victoria.
42 7.2 Broad Recommendations
In addition to the recommended specific sensors, our visits to the meteorological departments in
East Africa prompted a list of broader recommendations which we believe will help to improve
safety over Lake Victoria. In summary:
•
Evening Forecasts. In addition to the once-a-day forecasts currently issued in the morning
by all of the operational centers, forecasters in each country should take advantage of data
being collected during the day to issue an additional evening forecast for fishermen to consult
before setting out after sunset. Because most of the fishermen go out on the lake at night,
there is a large time interval between the morning forecasts and when they would be used by
the fishermen. Issuing an evening forecast, which would include a better understanding of
how the weather has changed throughout the day, would result in a more useable forecast
product that the fishermen could consult.
•
Aids to Navigation. A series of solar powered lights should be mounted on islands and the
shoreline to provide the fishermen with a way to navigate safely even when it is cloudy or
dark and stars and landmarks are not visible. At present, most of the fishermen use simple
dead-reckoning to move about the lake during the night. At the stakeholder meeting in
Kisumu, the fishermen discussed the dangers posed by large rocks and other obstacles which
can be hidden from view at night or when the lake levels are high. A light-based navigation
system could help the fishermen understand where they are on the lake and help them avoid
the lake hazards at night. The fishermen told us about an old system of multicolored lights
mounted on the numerous islands close to the shore of the lake. The lights were different
colors to indicate whether you were facing the north, south, east, or west side of the island.
This light-based navigation system was heavily utilized and appreciated by the fishermen but
has fallen into disrepair over the years and is no longer in use. Revitalizing such a system
would give the fishermen a useable compass by which to navigate out of the way of
impending storms.
•
Mobile Phone Weather Alert Program. The meteorological departments around Lake
Victoria should utilize text messages (i.e., SMS) sent to the mobile phones of registered users
to disseminate forecasts and warnings. Warnings must be distributed in a timely manner in
order to be useful to the recipient. SMS messages are a quick, easy, and affordable method of
communicating information. A system for disseminating forecasts via SMS has been
pioneered in Uganda as part of the WMO severe weather test bed project. Forecasts are sent
out each morning in multiple languages and can be targeted to select groups of users who
may be on a specific part of the lake. Such a powerful system for communicating weather
hazards could be very useful for all of the EAC meteorological departments.
•
Use of Local Observations in Regional Models. Efforts to use numerical weather
prediction (models) to build a forecast should be aided by utilizing the large amount of
surface data currently available throughout the region. Utilizing the high-quality surface data
would give more regionally precise initial conditions to the model and would likely result in
improved forecasting skill. Until the models begin to utilize regional observations to tune the
model initial conditions, the predictive capabilities of numerical models will be limited.
43 •
Web Sites to Disseminate Observations among Countries. A stronger web presence by
each of the meteorological departments would facilitate interaction and cooperation among
various national meteorological agencies. Surface observations, new radar data, and forecasts
should be shared over the web in real-time, linking various agencies and enhancing their
ability to issue spatially coherent and accurate short-term forecasts.
•
LVB Climate Data Archive. All current and future meteorological data recorded in the
region should be collected in a central location and archived for future studies. Data such as
surface observations, model output, and radar scans could all serve as important climate data
records against which future changes involving the climate of the lake can be assessed. These
data could also be used to evaluate the accuracy of regional climate models (i.e.,
hindcasting). Regional institutions such as ICPAC would be very suitable locations for
storing climate data records.
•
Satellite Communication to Make Observations Available in Real-Time. Current and
future rural observation systems should take advantage of readily available satellite
communication technologies (such as EUMECAST) to transmit their data to the forecast
centers in near real-time. This would give the forecasters an up-to-the-minute view of what is
occurring in all parts of their forecast domain and would improve their nowcasting ability.
7.3 Recommended Meteorological Sensors
Table 2 lists sensors which we believe would improve the nowcasting capabilities of EAC
meteorological departments. The list should not be seen as all inclusive, but rather as a set of
approaches that would most likely lead to the most direct improvements in forecasters’
understanding of the weather over the lake. It is not our recommendation that all of these sensors
be utilized, or that the same new sensor or combination of sensors be implemented in every
country. These recommendations should be seen as a menu, with the agencies in each country
selecting the tools which they believe they can implement within their budget and would most
greatly benefit their office. We first present an overview table that describes all of the
instruments before going into details about each individual option. The recommended sensors
are listed in order of the value which we think they hold. While we do provide an estimate of the
cost for the network, we would like to emphasize that these are only estimates and that the actual
cost of the network could be significantly higher. The specific costs of an instrument and
installation are strongly dependent on the exact company solicited and the region in which the
instrument is being installed. Our estimates were generated by soliciting estimates from
companies that build and service each type of instrument. All prices are given in US dollars.
44 Instrument
Scanning Weather
Radars
Lightning Detection and
Location Sensors
More Automated Surface
Observation Sensors
around the Lake
Integrated Weather Pak
Automated Surface
Weather Observation
Sensors on Islands
GPS Occultation System
Lightning Prediction by
Radar
Table 2. Recommended Sensor Options and Costs
Cost in US $
Description
Number of units: 2-3
Weather radars provide information on the location of
precipitation, storm movement and intensity, rainfall
Cost per unit: $8-10 million
estimates, and wind patterns in and around
precipitating storms.
Total Cost: $15-30 million
A network of 4-5 lightning detection sensors could be
deployed around the lake to give forecasters the
Cost per unit: $65,000
location and frequency of lightning occurring over and
around the lake.
Total Cost: $375,000 –
450,000
Additional surface observation sites could be installed
to fill in information gaps within the existing network
and to enhance the effectiveness of the observation
network around the lake.
Total Cost: $175,000 –
250,000
Number of units: 12
Weather observation instruments, similar to those
used over land, can be mounted on top of floating
buoys which can be secured at fixed points in the
middle of the lake.
Total Cost: $300,000
Surface meteorological stations, similar to those
already in place at sites inland, could be installed on
some of the numerous islands in the middle of the
lake.
Total Cost: $75,000 – 125,000
A system of GPS receiving sensors can communicate
with each other and, based off of the signal delay time
due to differential propagation in moist and dry air,
determine the locations of higher or lower moisture
Total Cost: $50,000 – 75,000
concentrations in the atmosphere and produce a
moisture profile of the atmosphere.
A routine can be provided for volume-scanning
weather radars to predict the probability of a lightning
Total Cost : $15,000, but
strike in a certain area approximately 15 minutes
requires a radar
before it occurs.
Stream Gauges
Total Cost: $30,000
Installing a denser network of stream gauges on the
rivers and streams flowing into Lake Victoria would
improve estimates of how much water is flowing into
and out of the lake.
7.3.1 Scanning Weather Radars
Overview: Weather radars provide information on the location of precipitation, storm movement
and intensity, rainfall estimates, and wind patterns in and around precipitating storms.
Cost: $4-5 million for each radar plus $4-5 million for installation and maintenance for each
radar
Total = $15-30 million for a network of 2-3 radars
45 Benefits:
• Forecasters will know the location, movement, and intensity of severe storms.
• Doppler radars can provide estimates of wind speed and direction in and around
precipitating storms.
• Provides uniform information over a large area (radius of up to 275 km for high-end
instruments) over both land and water
• Doppler-derived estimates of wind speed and wind direction, as well as precipitation
location, can be fed into numerical models to improve their predictive capabilities.
• Data can easily be made available and shared with multiple users in real-time.
• Radars can provide quantitative rainfall estimates, within 150 km of the radar, which
would be useful for hydrological purposes.
Limitations:
• A network of 3 radars is required to provide complete coverage of the lake and its basin.
• While one can still detect the presence or absence of storms, data quality is much lower at
ranges beyond 150 km (rain rate estimates are unreliable beyond this range) due to beam
broadening and the curvature of the Earth.
• Radars are expensive instruments that need large amounts of supervision, maintenance,
and calibration.
• Forecasters would have to be trained in the interpretation of radar data.
Specifications:
• An S-band (frequency) radar would provide the largest coverage area and would
attenuate the least when observing severe storms.
• The radar should have Doppler capabilities.
• While dual-polarization radars would provide more accurate precipitation estimates, the
benefits do not likely outweigh the cost for installing dual-polarization radars around the
lake at this time.
7.3.2 Lightning Detection and Location Sensors
Overview: A network of 4-5 lightning detection sensors could be deployed around the lake to
give forecasters the location and frequency of lightning occurring over and around the lake.
Cost: $65,000 per sensor plus $125,000 for the central computing system
Total = $375,000 - $450,000 for a network of 4-5 sensors
Benefits:
• These sensors can give the location of storms producing lightning with 2-3 km accuracy.
• Sensors can show signs of storm movements (could back out estimates of storm speed
and direction).
• Sensors can give information about cloud-to-cloud and cloud-to-ground strikes, and
distinguish between positive and negatively charged strikes (positive strikes are usually
associated with dying storms).
Limitations:
• Storm intensity estimates from lightning alone are not as clear to interpret as radar
observations.
• Sensor data cannot be used in any meaningful way to improve numerical models.
Specifications:
46 •
•
•
Four or five sensors deployed around the lake should be able to provide complete
coverage of the lake basin.
Satellite communications should be used in order to get the data to the forecasters soon
after the lightning strike occurs.
Sensors would require a strong solar power source as well as a reliable battery backup to
avoid interruptions.
7.3.3 More Automated Surface Weather Observation Sensors around Lake Victoria
Overview: Additional surface observation sites could be installed to fill in the information gaps
within the existing network and to enhance the effectiveness of the observation network around
the lake.
Cost: $10,000 per sensor plus $2,000 for installation and maintenance of each sensor
Benefits:
• Would help forecasters to better resolve important atmospheric features (such as the landlake breeze or the presence of surface boundaries).
• A denser network is more likely to observe severe storms occurring within the network as
they are developing and would aid in the calibration of radar derived rain rate estimates.
• More sensors would provide better information for drought monitoring, prediction, and
numerical model forecast verification, and would provide more climate data records
against which future changes to the climate could be judged.
• Additional automated sensors would increase the amount and reliability of information
that can be ingested into numerical models.
• Sensors would aid in the forecasting of inland flash floods by providing a more regionally
precise analysis of where the rain is falling and how intense it is.
Limitations:
• Surface observation sites provide only point measurements and would not provide the
same wide spatial coverage as radars.
• The true benefit of a surface network is largely dependent on the density of the
observation sites; in order to get a marked improvement in forecast capabilities using
only a denser surface network, an additional 10-20 automated surface observation sites
would need to be installed.
• This option does not provide any new information over the lake.
Specifications:
• The system should utilize satellite communications in order to get the data to the
forecasters in a useable amount of time.
• This option would require a strong solar power source as well as a reliable battery backup
to avoid interruptions.
7.3.4 Integrated Weather Pak
Overview: Fixed buoys with surface weather observation sensors in the lake. Weather
observation instruments, similar to those used over land, can be mounted on top of floating
buoys which can be secured at fixed points in the middle of the lake.
Cost: $25,000 per sensor
47 Total = $300,000 for a network of 12 sensors
Benefits:
• Weather sensors on buoys would provide measurements of temperature, humidity,
precipitation, wind speed, and wind direction over the lake.
• Data could be transmitted by communication satellites to the forecast offices and used in
near real-time.
• Buoy-based atmospheric observations could be ingested into numerical models to provide
initial conditions in data sparse regions over the lake.
• This option provides rainfall estimates over the lake for use in validating radar-derived
rainfall estimates as well as hydrological and climate monitoring.
• Buoy-based atmospheric observations would provide wave height information for storm
warnings.
• Marine forecasters would get information about underwater currents for improvement of
coupled lake-atmosphere numerical models (current data could also be useful to aid in
search and rescue efforts).
• Users can select the location of the buoys to provide the maximum benefit from fixed
point observations.
Limitations:
• Fixed buoys only provide a point measurement of the atmosphere and do not provide the
same contiguous spatial coverage needed to locate and track severe storms; information
would be provided on a storm only if it is directly on top of the buoy.
• The cost to install and maintain the instruments is high and would require specialized or
modified ships and technicians.
• The true benefit of a buoy network is largely dependent on the density of the buoy sites;
in order to get a marked improvement in forecast capabilities using only a buoy network
installation of a large (5-10) number of buoys would be required.
Specifications:
7.3.5 Automated Surface Weather Observation Sensors on Islands
Overview: Surface meteorological stations, similar to those already in place at sites inland, could
be installed on some of the numerous islands in the middle of the lake.
Cost: $10,000 per sensor plus $2,500 for installation and maintenance of each sensor
Total = $75,000 - $125,000 for a network for 5-10 sensors
Benefits:
• This option would provide atmospheric observations in data-sparse regions over the lake.
• Data could be transmitted by satellites to the forecast offices and used in near real-time.
• Atmospheric observations could be ingested into numerical models to provide initial
conditions in otherwise data sparse regions.
• Placing the instruments on islands would be much cheaper than installing buoys.
48 Limitations:
• Because they are on land, these observation sites would not provide any information on
underwater currents or wave heights,
• A technician must visit each of the island sites for required maintenance and calibration.
• Data collected on the islands may not represent the true state over the water because of
the contamination by the island itself (this is more likely to affect temperature and
relative humidity than precipitation, wind speed, or wind direction).
• The location of the instruments would be predetermined by the location of available
islands and not user selected (may not get representative, complete, or evenly distributed
coverage over the entire lake).
Specifications:
• Should utilize satellite communications in order to get the data to the forecasters in a
useable amount of time
• Would require a strong solar power source as well as a reliable battery backup to avoid
interruptions
7.3.6 GPS Occultation System
Overview: A system of GPS receiving sensors can communicate with each other and, based off
of the signal delay time due to differential propagation in moist and dry air, determine the
locations of higher or lower moisture concentrations in the atmosphere and produce a moisture
profile of the atmosphere.
Cost: $5,000 per sensor plus $2,500 for the computing system and installation of each sensor
Benefits:
• This system provides location and depth of atmospheric moisture.
• Water vapor profiles could be ingested into regional numerical models.
• This capability provides similar information to the humidity measurements on upper air
soundings but has the advantages of frequent updates without expensive expendables.
Limitations:
• Systems are still in development and testing and thus are not available commercially yet;
should be available in a few years
Specifications:
• The estimate is that fewer than ten sensors would provide complete coverage of the lake
and its basin.
7.3.7 Lightning Prediction by Radar
Overview: A routine can be provided for volume-scanning weather radars to predict the
probability of a lightning strike in a certain area approximately 15 minutes before it occurs.
Cost: Low (if radars are operational)
49 Benefits:
• Radar can provide general area in which a lightning strike is likely to occur in the next
15-20 minutes within a range of 250-300 km for a typical severe storm (accurate
distances depend on the size of the storm and the spatial resolution of the radar data).
• Radar can forecast cloud-to-cloud strikes; a lightning sensor network may not observe
these.
Limitations:
• Prediction ability is dependent on the radar scan (e.g., cannot predict lightning directly
over the radar due to the data gap in the cone-of-silence).
7.3.8
Stream Gauges
Overview: Installing a denser network of stream gauges on the rivers and streams flowing into
Lake Victoria would improve estimates of how much water is flowing into and out of the lake.
Cost: Low to Moderate
Benefits:
• Gauges provide valuable tools for climate monitoring.
• Gauges aid in river flood-stage forecasting and could improve flood warning lead-times
in eastern Kenya.
Limitations:
• Gauges do not provide any improved water estimates of rainfall falling on the lake or
entering the lake from the land via run-off.
Specifications:
7.3.9 Summary
We have reviewed surface and upper air installations near Lake Victoria and throughout the
region, consulted with meteorological staffs of the three shore-side countries, and spoken with
several people supporting the fishery industry at the LVBC. The team considered numerous
instrumentation systems—both atmospheric and hydrological—in the context of the
Consolidated Terms of Reference to: (1) evaluate the status and needs for safe use of Lake
Victoria; (2) support the long-term use of its natural resources; and (3) protect the water and air
quality over the basin. We also considered infrastructure needs for the fishing industry, shipping,
and transportation users of the lake and how they could best receive and use weather information
to avert dangerous encounters with the active weather often found over the lake. During the
course of our review, we gave priority to meteorological systems that could yield a high value in
supplying short-term forecasts (nowcasts) to Lake Victoria users. This was our underlying
evaluation.
Length of time for implementation, cost, and what the shoreline governments were already
considering also had strong influences in our recommendations. In the final evaluation, several
systems, due to either the low value to the overall goals or the complexity of developing useable
results in a short time period, did not make the final list of considerations. Such systems not
50 included are satellite data handling (too costly and too little gain from current capability) and
new GPS radiosonde systems (daily operational cost too high).
In spite of our limited time in the region, we made a number of important findings toward
supporting several viable nowcasting processes and risk reducing measures for users on the lake.
These findings relate to how the lake is used, the frequencies and locations of storms in the
region, the current plans of the coastal countries, and the existing infrastructure to enable a
successful weather warning system over a large inland water body. Three key technologies
applied across the lake could enhance the safety of operations for all users: (1) navigational aids;
(2) cellular warning systems that focus on nowcasting of storm movement and intensity; and (3)
radar coverage across the lake.
Navigational aids (lights and beacons) on lake islands and key costal points would support the
boat and ship traffic during periods of storm activity. For fishermen in lighter and smaller boats,
this option for enhancing the ability to safely navigate the lake on a stormy night is one of the
quickest and least expensive methods of aid. Additionally, knowing where the leeward side of a
lake island is could protect the boaters from longer fetch, storm-driven waves on the lake.
We consider implementation of a cellular warning system similar to the system Uganda is
developing very important. Cellular technology already has widespread use in the area and is the
least costly technology for implementation. The system needs to move from its current forecast
role to a nowcasting role where it can deliver storm location and projected movement with
respect to the lake. Already, Tanzania and Kenya have plans to install radars that can provide
nowcasting advances to the boats and ships on the lake; however, current plans only cover about
a third of the lake adequately. More radar units will be needed to complete adequate coverage
over the lake. Complete radar coverage across the lake can deliver warnings and information on
the timing, movement, and intensity of storm cells on and nearby shore.
7.4 Recommendations for marine monitoring requirements
Lake Victoria moored buoys will be required to measure vector current profiles, wave direction,
wave energy spectra (from which significant wave height, dominant wave period, and average
wave period are derived), water level, and water temperature at the surface and at select depths.
All parameters except wave spectra will be transmitted in near real-time. Weather observation
instruments, similar to those used over land, can be mounted on top of floating buoys which can
be secured at fixed points in the middle of the lake. The design of the observing system also must
take into account logistical considerations, such as the availability of ships suitable for mooring
deployment (Figure 17) and the practicalities of cost.
The Lake Victoria meteorological buoys will measure and transmit barometric pressure, wind
(direction, speed, and gust), air temperature, relative humidity, and solar and sky radiation. The
water-level stations will collect and transmit water level data and ancillary physical and
meteorological measurements, including water and air temperature, barometric pressure, relative
humidity, and wind speed, direction, and gusts. Lake Victoria core variables are common
requirements in coastal and lake operations in the international community, such as for the
United States Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) applications in support of coastal
marine operations, natural hazards mitigation, protecting and sustaining ecosystem and public
health, and living marine resources management.
51 The standard suite of instruments on the moored buoy systems includes upward-looking 600 kHz
RD Instruments (RDI) Workhorse Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCPs™), upgraded
with RDI’s ADCP Wave Array software, on all 10-meter and 30-meter systems. The ADCPs are
gimble-mounted in “smart” anchor frames on the bottom and measure current velocities in 1meter bins from about 2.0 to 2.8m above the seafloor to the surface. The wave software converts
wave orbital velocity measurements from the ADCPs into wave frequency and directional
spectra. Current velocity at the deepwater site is measured by an RDI downward-looking 300
kHz ADCP. Sea-Bird Electronics, Inc., Seacat recorders, mounted on the bottom alongside the
ADCPs, measure temperature, conductivity, and water level (Paroscientific 45 or 100 psia
Digiquartz® pressure sensors) at the 10-meter and 30-meter sites. All moored buoy systems will
employ the Inductive Modem (IM) system developed by SeaBird Systems, Inc., which uses
transformers to couple data to the mooring cable (Figures 18 and 19).
Figure 17. Example of buoys being loaded onto the deck of deployment ship. The MV Jumuiya and other vessels that
EAC may have commissioned should be deployed for Lake Victoria.
Figure 18. Telemetry buoy system.
Figure19. Telemetry buoy sensors.
52 The buoy should be self-contained and include sensors to measure wind speed and direction,
barometric pressure, relative humidity, solar and sky radiation, and air and water temperature.
An example is the meteorological buoy produced by the NCSU/Marine Systems, Inc.
Selection of the Lake Victoria water level stations should consider the Sutron Corporation NOS
G3 Water Level Stations which use Next Generation Water Level Measurement System
(NGWLMS) technology. Similar to a typical NWLON station, the Lake Victoria WLS includes
an air acoustic water level sensor and ancillary sensors to measure air and water temperature,
wind speed and direction, and barometric pressure. Installation and operation of the Lake
Victoria stations will meet international standards.
All components of the observational array should be outfitted for the real-time telemetry of data,
which represents a significant advancement in regional observation systems. Prior to
deployment, all possible real- to near-real-time data retrieval scenarios should be evaluated as a
function of distance from the coast, depth in the water column, frequency of transmission, and
cost. Data measurements from the offshore buoys will be transmitted to the Lake Victoria data
centre, processed, and, then, after preliminary quality control checks carried out by the
consultancy personnel, posted on the Lake Victoria web page. Telemetry of data from the
moored buoys employs a local communication satellite system which will be further explored.
These systems power on every six hours for 2.0 minutes to transmit data to a receiving modem
housed at land based data centres. For marine equipment, we estimate costs based on 18 buoys,
12 wave stations, 12 water level stations, 12 integrated weather packs, and 12 visibility stations
(see Table 3 for summary of cost estimates).
Instrument
MV Jumuiya vessel
10m Mooring
30m mooring
>40m mooring
ADCP
Water level monitoring
systems
Waves measurement
system
Visibility sensor
Integrated weather pak
Table 3. Estimated Budget for Marine Equipment
Cost in US $s
Description
48,000 for four months
Ship observational cruises and deployment of buoys
Number of units: 6
Fixed Buoys with marine and above water observation
sensors in the lake.
Number of units: 6
Fixed buoys with marine and above water observation
Number of units: 6
Fixed buoys with marine and above water observation
Number of units: 18
Fixed buoys with marine observation sensors in the
Lake.
Number of units: 12
Lake.
Number of units: 12
Cost per unit:$ 20,000
Lake.
Number of units: 12
Lake.
Total Cost: $84,000
Number of units: 12
Fixed buoys with surface weather observation Sensors
in the Lake. Weather observation instruments, similar
to those used over land, can be mounted on top of
53 Observations from
fishermen boats
Inexpensive temperature,
currents sensor pak with GPS
locator
Cost per unit: $200
Total Cost: $20,000 for 100
fishing boats
floating buoys which can be secured at fixed points in
the middle of the lake.
Measures lake surface temperature every time the
fishing boat is in the water
7.5 Recommendations for modeling requirements
Most of the previous and present experimental NWP and climate prediction studies were based
on stand-alone atmospheric models in which Lake Victoria is represented in terms of a very
simple water patch with no hydrodynamics. Such forms represent only some of the
thermodynamics characteristic of the lake and certainly no motion. Below, we highlight an
approach adopted at North Carolina State University. In this approach, both the atmospheric and
lake components of the system are based on the ‘primitive’ system of dynamical equations which
permit motion in the lake, including currents and transport of heat. The Climate Laboratory
(CLIMLAB) directed by Professor Fredrick Semazzi, at North Carolina State University is the
leading research institution in the world on the use of hydrodynamical principal models to
understand the coupled variability of Lake Victoria atmosphere and meteorology over its basin.
CLIMLAB has developed and successfully tested a coupled prediction model (the only one we
are aware of). This system and previous results based on it will form a centerpiece of guidance to
carry out this consultancy. Some previous studies are listed in Annex 2 for further details.
Previous results of LVB climate studies have shown that Lake Victoria plays an important role in
the modulation of the regional climate. Therefore, a regional coupled model (RegCM3-POM)
was developed to understand the two-way interactions between the regional meteorology of
Eastern Africa and Lake Victoria. The atmospheric component of the model is the standard ICTP
regional climate model (RegCM3).
7.5.1 Recommended Prediction Model Configuration
Based on the analysis of the model simulations conducted in this feasibility study, the potential
observational opportunities based on satellite and in situ monitoring, and the forecasting
capabilities based on previous modeling studies over the LVB, we recommend that appropriate
model configuration for producing early warning alerts for the fishermen and transporters over
Lake Victoria have the following attributes:
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
Nested (regional) thus providing high resolution of the local forcing factors (e.g.,
WRF at about 10 km resolution)
Should be coupled with a comprehensive hydrodynamical of the lake circulation (e.g.,
Princeton University Ocean Model, POM)
Should be coupled with wave-current-tide simulation system, (e.g., the third
generation wave model, SWAN)
54 8. Recommendations for Implementation Phase
Based on the results of the feasibility sub-projects, a plan has been developed for strengthening
the meteorological services over the Lake Victoria basin for enhancing, the safety of marine
navigation over lake and the exploitation of natural resources over the lake basin. It comprises
four projects.
8.1 Project 1: Plan for a Navigation Early Warning System (NEWS) (CTOR1, CTOR3, and
CTOR4)
Previously, EAC Lake Victoria maritime safety efforts have focused on the assessment and
implementation of Search and Rescue (SAR) needs and activities and have concentrated on the
following three components:
•
•
•
A wireless communication system allowing contact between boats in distress and rescue
centres;
A regional communication centre, with capacity to process distress radio traffic from the
public in the region; and
Rescue facilities; (i.e., life boats, firefighting corps, police, and health facilities).
Considering the large number of weather-related fatal accidents in the fishing fleet every year
and the advancement in weather prediction technology, there is an opportunity for adding a
fourth component to the list, focusing on the provision of early warning products in addition to
SAR. However, to confirm feasibility of sub-projects in this consultancy, there is a need to
conduct a pilot project to ensure that the various complimentary components of such an early
warning system are efficiently interlinked under a limited scope before implementing the fullscale early warning system for the entire basin.
Following are the key socioeconomic and technological issues raised by the stakeholders and the
analyses of the results for the three sub-projects of this consultancy.
(i)
Observations sub-project: Forecasters need several essential types of information:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Location of severe storms occurring over the lake;
Speed at which the storms are moving;
Direction in which the storms are moving;
Intensity of the storms in order to gauge how much risk they pose to citizens on the
lake;
Strength of the surface water currents; and
Lake surface temperature information used by fishermen to assess favorable water
conditions for their operations (see section 4.4 for Gabba consultative visit
testimonies by fishermen).
55 (ii)
Prediction system sub-project: Meteorological and marine phenomena simulated by
computer models—in particular, those likely to cause hazardous marine navigation
conditions:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Strong near-coastal water currents across Lake Victoria;
Existence of strong water circulation gyres across Lake Victoria (see Figure 14a);
Existence of costal eddies across Lake Victoria (see Figure 14a ;
Large gradients in lake surface temperatures across Lake Victoria (see Figure 15b);
Existence of severe thunderstorm and lightning activity across Lake Victoria; and
Risks from mountain induced severe weather which tend to migrate to the lake and
cause hazardous navigation conditions.
(iii) Stakeholders' survey sub-project: Stakeholder concerns have been assessed using: a
questionnaire (see section 6.1); interviews of focused groups; and literature reviews.
Following are some of the leading concerns:
•
Underwater currents: Strong underwater currents tend to drift both fishing boats
and nets to dangerous distances for navigation.
•
Underwater vertical currents: Occurrence of vertical currents of water is a
phenomenon well known by fishermen. Persistent conditions like this change
predator-prey population balance by enhancing turbidity resulting in conditions
where larger fish can no longer efficiently hunt smaller prey fish.
•
Water spouts weather (locally known as Nsoke in Kenya and Uganda): Fishermen
have described conditions very consistent with tornadoes, except that they occur
over the water. They describe conditions when dark clouds descend in form of a
‘tail’ and touch the water surface. This causes water to rise and gives the
appearance of the cloud touching the water surface. They describe these systems
causing large swaths of total destruction as they move from water to land regions.
Also see accounts of the existence of waterspouts over Lake Victoria as far back as
1922 (Nature, 1922; see Annex 6), and more recently video footage, in 2009 (see
Annex 6).
•
Seasonality of intense winds: Fishermen gave accounts of seasonally strong winds
which peak in July. These winds have resulted in increasing numbers of accidents.
•
Seasonality of lake surface temperatures (LST): The fishermen have vivid
accounts of the dependence of fish population on LST. During the season around
April, the deeper waters in the interior of Lake Victoria are warmer than during
other seasons. However, certain species of fish prefer cooler water and therefore
escape to the near coastal waters where the temperatures are cooler. This creates
favorable fishing conditions within five miles of the Lake shore. This is not only
safer for the fishermen but also cheaper because of reduced fuel consumption.
Opposite conditions result in fishermen having to go further into the interior of the
lake in search of favorable fishing conditions. Under these conditions, fuel is more
56 expensive and some of the costs are passed on to fish consumers. These shifts occur
due not only to variations in the annual cycle but also to interannual climate
variability.
•
Daily fishermen work schedule: In many regions of the basin, fishermen set sail
about 7pm, the nets are laid about 10-12pm, and the return journey back to shore
begins about 2pm to avoid the most turbulent weather conditions and lightning
(land breeze maximum) and get back in time for the waiting fish vendors and
distributors. Daytime fishing is not a serious option because the fish can easily
avoid the nets.
The main objective of the proposed project is to plan and conduct a pilot study to understand the
requirements for the integration of the primary components (monitoring, modeling, production
and dissemination of early warning alerts) based on the prediction of severe weather and
hazardous marine conditions for navigation over Lake Victoria.
The pilot project should address a key recommendation from the feasibility study that an
effective early warning system should be fully responsive to particular timelines and transport
patterns of the fishermen operations such as, the time they set the nets, carry out the main fishing
operations, and return to shore to sell the fish catch. This requires comprehensive analysis of the
provider (weather forecasters)-stakeholder (fishermen) interface. Even perfect predictions could
be useless unless they are based on full understanding of how the information would be used.
Therefore, in addition, to observational and modeling components of the feasibility study the
design of the pilot project should fully exploit the results of the survey questionnaire summarized
in section 6.1.2.
The pilot study should use existing or soon to exist facilities to augment the existing
observational network. The augmentation of the observational system should include extensive
use of the 2 EAC research vessels, completion of the installation of the Mwanza/Tanzania and
Eldoret/Kenya radar systems and of installation of a short-term rented radar at Entebbe/ Uganda.
The specific objectives of the early warning pilot project are:
(i)
Enhancement of the monitoring network to fill the most serious gaps—required for
provision of early warning alerts that were identified in the feasibility study;
(ii) Development of a fully coupled lake-atmosphere regional model for forecasting severe
weather and adverse currents in Lake Victoria—required for the provision of early
warning alerts which fully address the stakeholders' marine safety concerns;
(iii) Packaging of the customized early warning weather products in forms that are
convenient and easily understandable by the stakeholders; and
(iv) Development and testing of a simple and limited-scope mobile phone-based
communication network to deliver early warning weather alerts to a selected group of
dedicated fishermen and fish transporters identified specifically for the pilot project.
57 8.1.4 Expected Project Outputs
(i)
Observational test data from a marine weather and lake currents sensor system. This
will provide critical input data for the forecasting model and provide forecasters with a
real-time, spatially coherent view of storms within their forecast domains.
(ii) A customized severe marine weather and water currents forecast model.
(iii) A prototype mobile phone network that meets weather alert delivery requirements.
(iv) An integrated, end-to-end, limited-scope monitoring/prediction/consumer product and
delivery system.
(v) A quantitative procedure that measures the effectiveness of the pilot project based on a
small sample of stakeholders, comparing the operations and weather-related hazards
experienced by fishermen who received the early warning alerts to those who did not
receive the alerts.
(vi) A report summarizing the results and lessons learned in the development of a fullfledged early warning system for the entire lake basin.
8.1.5 Project Scope
The project should be carried out within the vicinity of a limited area sector of Lake Victoria and
should provide critical information to the development of a full-fledged early warning system for
the entire lake basin.
Specific Objective 1: Enhancement of the monitoring network to fill the most serious gaps—
required for provision of early warning alerts that were identified in the feasibility study.
Tasks will include the following:
(i)
Promote the finalization of the installation of the two scanning weather radars in
Eldoret, Kenya and Mwanza, Tanzania. A schematic of the coverage area of the two
radars in Eldoret and Mwanza is shown in Figure 18 and their benefits described in
section 7.3.1.
58 Figure 18: Schematic depiction of the ‘limited scope observational upgrade for the pilot project.
(ii)
To fill the observational gap over the northeastern sector of the LVB in Uganda,
another radar is needed; Entebbe has been identified in as a suitable site. Unlike in
Kenya and Tanzania, procurement for the Uganda radar has not yet been initiated,
although we believe the Uganda government has plans to procure it. For the purpose of
the pilot project, we recommend renting the radar for the two months. The additional
atmospheric observations based on the three radars in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda,
will provide:
•
•
Full radar coverage of the lake and capability for issuing nowcasts and forecasts of
severe storms (location, direction, intensity of severe storms); and
Input for regional coupled model initialization by transforming radar returns into
model diabatic heating.
(iii) In the pilot project phase, it will also be critical to monitor the lake’s water currents,
since they are a major cause of marine navigation accidents, to validate the coupled
lake-atmosphere prediction system. In the long run, and in particular for the regional
climate system, a comprehensive marine observational network is required and will be
discussed in the observations and monitoring section (section 7), below. For this reason
and also for cost considerations, full exploitation should be made of the EAC ships (MV
Jumuiya and other research vessels to monitor vital elements of the lake’s circulation.
These variables were discussed in section 7.5. Additional synoptic marine observations
based on fixed buoys will be required (explained in section 7.4) to provide:
•
•
Continuous synoptic observations of water currents, lake surface, and subsurface
temperatures and atmospheric conditions;
Continuous observations of atmospheric conditions over the lake for surface air
temperature and winds; and
59 •
Non-synoptic measurements of atmospheric and marine conditions during the
deployment of the buoys.
Specific Objective 2: Development of a fully coupled lake-atmosphere regional model for
forecasting severe weather and adverse currents in Lake Victoria—required for the provision
of early warning alerts which fully address the stakeholders' marine safety concerns.
The highest incidence of marine navigation accidents occurs within 20-30km of the main or
island shores of Lake Victoria. However, existing computer weather models used for
experimental prediction over Lake Victoria do not account for many physical processes that
are important for coastal regions. Present forecasting models do not provide the capacity to
predict water currents, a major deficiency for the problem at hand (see section 7.5).
(i)
Conduct a comprehensive review of existing numerical weather prediction models
(NWP) to assess their suitability for provision of early warning products for navigation
safety over Lake Victoria.
(ii)
Develop or acquire from existing sources a state-of-the art, coupled lake-atmospheric
model capable of predicting the key marine and atmospheric conditions (see section
7.5), and based on concerns raised by the fishermen and transporters over Lake Victoria
(as expressed in responses to the feasibility project survey questionnaire). These
parameters include lake levels, water level, surface and subsurface current fields,
significant wave height and frequency fields, and tidal elevation, as well as atmospheric
temperature, winds, and rates of rainfall.
(iii) Calibration of one or several existing coupled models for the Navigation Early Warning
System (NEWS) problem. None of the very few existing coupled weather forecasting
models in the world have been customized for the NEWS region. The latest regional
techniques, including use of the spectral nudging procedure and 4DVAR, should be
employed to ensure optimal accuracy of the prediction system. This task will involve
systematic calibration and adjustment of the forecast model tunable parameters to
produce optimal forecasts for the stakeholders. The performance of this system might
benefit from use of a Model Output Statistics (MOS) system or similar statistical tool.
(iv) Perform daily experimental forecasts to be used for making early warning alerts for
enhancing navigation safety on Lake Victoria.
Specific Objective 3: Packaging of the customized early warning weather products in forms
that are convenient and easily understandable by the stakeholders.
(i)
Use of information from the prediction models under Specific Objective 2 to produce
customized NEWS alert products that are easily understandable and useable by Lake
60 Victoria fishermen and transporters. The form of alerts should be consistent with the
requirements unveiled through the stakeholder survey conducted during the feasibility
study (see section 6.1.2, above).
(ii)
Archive the early warning alerts and apply appropriate statistical tools to assess the
performance of the NEWS alerts.
Specific Objective 4: Development and testing of a simple and limited-scope mobile phonebased communication network to deliver early warning weather alerts to a selected group of
dedicated fishermen and fish transporters identified specifically for the pilot project.
Previously, EAC Lake Victoria maritime safety studies focused on Search and Rescue (SAR)
and concentrated on the following three components:
•
•
•
A wireless communication system, allowing contact between boats in distress and rescue
centres;
A regional communication centre with capacity to process distress radio traffic from the
public in the region; and
Rescue facilities (i.e. life boats, firefighting corps, police and health facilities).
The LVBC has commissioned several investigations (see Annex 2; schematic of the SAR
concept in Figure 19) in the past to investigate the prospects for the application of Maritime
Communications System for commercial and safety purposes on Lake Victoria and to define
viable Public Private Partnership (PPP) implementation approaches. These activities have
mainly focused on rescue needs and have concluded that there is vast potential to improve
the safety and socioeconomic wellbeing of thousands of people around Lake Victoria. The
mobile telecommunications industry has therefore been rallied to take responsibility for the
connectivity component. The project was subsequently announced by GSMA in a press
release on March 13, 2008. Zain and Ericsson are upgrading Celtel's existing infrastructure
and building an additional 21 radio sites to provide mobile coverage up to 20 kilometers into
the lake where 90% of the fishing is found. About 5,000 people die in this area each year
from accidents and piracy. The project will use Ericsson's Extended Range software package
to more than double the effective range of radio base stations as well as Ericsson's Mobile
Position System, a location-based service that enables emergency authorities to triangulate
the mobile signal of fishermen in distress.
61 Fig. 19: Schematic diagram for the dissemination of Search and Rescue (SAR) Products
Considering the large number of weather-related fatal accidents in the fishing fleet every year
and the advancement in weather and climate prediction science, there is need for a fourth
component focusing on early warning technology in addition to SAR. The EAC Council
decided to commission this feasibility study for the development of a proposal to provide
member countries with an effective decision making framework with a view to promoting
meteorological services over Lake Victoria and its basin, aiding in the safe and efficient
utilization of natural resources.
(i) This component of the pilot project should exploit the lessons, experiences, and
infrastructure from recent activities such as the Mobile Phone Weather Alert Program.
Under this project, the Uganda Department of Meteorology, Ericsson, MTN, National
Lake Rescue Institute, and the World Meteorological Organization are piloting an SMS
service called “Mobile Weather Alert” which uses mobile technology to provide forecasts
of severe weather and improve safety for fishermen on Lake Victoria.
(ii) The pilot project, through the meteorological departments around Lake Victoria, should
assess the feasibility of use of text messages (SMS) sent to the mobile phones of
62 registered stakeholders on the lake to disseminate forecasts and warnings. Warnings must
be distributed in a timely manner in order to be useful to the recipient. SMS messages are
a quick, easy, and affordable method of communicating information. Model forecasts
should be sent out several times a day in the most common languages identified in this
feasibility study survey (i.e., English, Kiswahili, and Luganda; see section 6.1.2) and
target select groups of users operating on a specific part or parts of the lake.
Recommendations for Mobilization of Resources for the Pilot Project: It is recommended that
EAC-LVBC commission a high powered resource mobilization task force or consultant to
coordinate the mobilization of regional and international partnerships and resources for the
implementation of pilot project. Members of the consultancy should be led by a scientist with
broad and extensive track record in international science collaboration and coordination, as well
as a strong established record in meteorological research on the LVB region. The members of the
consultancy should bring complimentary credentials to the recommended strategy described
below.
Mobilization for Facilities and Services: Radar installations are the most critical observational
platforms for validating weather numerical forecasting models for the LVB region since the
observational network for other instruments is highly inadequate. Satellite data is appropriate for
validating climate simulations as this feasibility study has shown (section 6.2.2), however it is
not suitable for the validation of weather prediction models because of the highly limited
sampling of extreme weather conditions for generating early warning alerts for navigation over
the lake. The consultant has learned that procurement of the Mwanza/Tanzania and
Eldoret/Kenya radar are in progress. Completion of the acquisition of the two systems would
serve a critical need for configuring the weather forecast models for the LVB. Installation of
radar at Entebbe/Uganda to cover the rest of the LVB is highly recommended. Other high
priority observational and modeling requirements have been assessed and prioritized in his
feasibility study and are described in detail in section 7.
The consultant has engaged in consultations with NCAR's Earth Observing Laboratory (EOL)
and Research Applications Laboratory (RAL) laboratories. NCAR is the global leader in weather
and climate research and its applications to social-economic sectors. The consultant therefore
recommends strategic collaboration with EOL and RAL to capitalize on their unique resources,
facilities, expertise and track record in supporting similar activities as the proposed pilot project.
EOL provides state-of-the-art atmospheric observing systems and support services to the
university-based research community for climate and weather research. Its work is directed
toward solutions to problems relevant to society, and facilitates the transfer of the information,
expertise, and technology developed to the public and private sectors. RAL has a long tradition
of teaming with universities and other research institutions to apply weather and climate
prediction science for solving pressing societal weather and climate-induced problems.
Requests for EOL Facilities and Services (http://www.eol.ucar.edu/deployment/request-info) are
submitted directly to NSF. Support is available on a competitive basis to all qualified scientists
requiring facilities and services to carry out their research objectives. The deployment of the
facilities is driven by the scientific merit, capabilities of the facilities to carry out the proposed
observations and scheduling of the facility for the requested time. Normally, principle
investigators having approved NSF science research grants have first priority and receive full
63 deployment pool allocation funding for the facilities requested. Other requests are considered
based on scientific merit and facility availability, with the deployment costs varying from full
cost recovery to full or partial support by the deployment pool.
Specific Tasks:
(i)
EAC-LVBC should commission a consultant to develop a detailed request for EOL
facilities and services for the pilot project. The NSF-established procedures and
priorities for requesting the use of these facilities are available at
http://www.eol.ucar.edu/deployment/request-info/UserGuide.pdf. The request should
be based on the assessment of observational requirements generated from this
feasibility study. Requests that seek deployment pool funds on the order of less than
$1.0M are defined as small campaign requests, while those requests in excess of this
amount are considered large program requests. Very complex programs (e.g., those
which involve several facilities, entail difficult deployment logistics or require
interagency/international coordination) are also required to follow the review process
for large programs.
(ii)
The consultant should also develop a plan for strategic collaboration of EAC-LVBC
with RAL through its Joint Numerical Testbed (JNT). This is a collaborative facility
within RAL that is connected to an international network of collaborators. The main
goals would be to test and evaluate a numerical weather prediction (NWP) system to
develop and test the performance of experimental forecast weather prediction system
based on the configuration and specifications recommended in this feasibility study
(section 7.4.3). A joint funding request should be submitted to multiple government
agencies including NSF in the US, DFID in the UK, the African Development Bank,
KOIKA, ICAO, WMO and others. The model for the funding requests should address
the need for resources to support participation of EAC citizens and international
experts. A specific opportunity that fits this model is the Partnerships for Enhanced
Engagement
in
Research
(PEER;
http://sites.nationalacademies.org/pga/dsc/peer/index.htm) funding program. This is a
new joint NSF-USAID funding program that would be appropriate for securing funds
for the implementation of key components of the proposed pilot project. The funding is
up to $300,000 per year for three years. This competitive grants program allows
scientists in developing countries to apply for funds to support research and capacitybuilding activities in partnership with their NSF-funded collaborators on topics of
importance to USAID. Figure 20 illustrates how the partnerships would work under
PEER funding to support the proposed pilot project.
(iii) The consultant’s strategic plan for resource mobilization should also ensure close
collaboration with recent or ongoing projects in SAR and provision of early warnings,
including The Eastern Africa SWFDP/WMO project, WWRP/WMO, and the Mobile
Weather Alert Project (WAP).
(iv) The consultant strongly recommends close collaboration in the planning of the pilot
project and the EAC initiative to establish a centre of excellence on medium-range
64 weather forecasting under its ‘Strategic Framework for the Development of Numerical
Weather Prediction in the East African Community Region’ (report available on
request). The proposed pilot project would serve as a nucleus for the future expansion
to the entire EAC region.
US Universities
PIRE Climate
Prediction Research
(Lake Victoria
Basin&Research)
NCSU MEAS
STAT
Observational
Assessment
&
Modeling Assessment
Existing NSF Funded
Project
EAC Universities
Stakeholders
Interface Survey Over
Lake Victoria Basin
PEER
Results from Present
Feasibility Study
(Consultant North
Carolina State
University)
EAC-LVBC
Project
EAC Search & Rescue (SAR) Communication Facility
Customized
Meteorological Safety
Alerts for Fishing Industry
Enhanced Navigation Safety for Lake
Victoria Fishermen & Transporters
Proposed NSF PEER Enabled Research to Support the Enhancement of Meteorological
Services for Marine Navigation over Lake Victoria
LVBC: Lake Victoria Basin Commission
NMHS: National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
NSF: United States National Science Foundation
SAR: EAC Search & Rescue
WRF: Weather Research & Forecasting model
WMO: World Meteorological Organization, Switzerland
EAC-LVBC Funded
Feasibility Project
NSF Funded Project
Research and Modeling
Existing Regional Efforts
65 8.1.7 Estimated Project Costs
$10,000,000
$10,000,000
$ 600,000
$400,000
$50,000
$30,000
$80,000
$6,000
$200,000
$ 1,366,000
installation of the Mwanza/Tanzania radar (Tanzania Government)
installation of the Eldoret/Kenya radar (Kenya Government)
installation of the Entebbe/Uganda rental radar (Radar rental from NCAR
http://www.eol.ucar.edu/deployment/requestinfo/AverageCostGraphicsRadars.pdf for about 2 months (S-Pol radar))
purchase and deployment of the 3 buoy network
computing cluster and peripherals
Internet connectivity
travel costs air, land and lake
ship rental (rate $400/day for half-month’s ship time)
salaries
TOTAL ESTIMATE (excludes the Mwanza and Eldoret Radar).
8.2 Project 2: Plan for a Hotspots Atlas (CTOR2)
Weather and climate information required for decision-makers and management of leading
social-economic sectors in the EAC region is not available at a single collection centre. More
important for this project, the information is not provided in a user friendly state which makes it
difficult for the stakeholders to use it. The EAC should undertake a project to produce a
weather/climate atlas which serves this need and in doing so significantly enhance the
productivity in the exploitation of natural resources for the LVB.
8.2.2. Overall Project Objective
The recommendations for this proposed project are based on the many years of accumulated
experience of the NMHS, ICPAC and members of the consultancy in providing meteorological
services for the region. The primary objective is to produce an interactive weather/climate
information atlas for the LVB to support optimal exploitation of natural resources in the EAC
region. The products should comprise digital data, graphs, and maps for the provision of: (i)
basic meteorological information; and (ii) sector specific climate information for at least the
following industries: fisheries, marine navigation, tourism, agriculture, energy, water resources,
engineering construction, forestry, transportation, health, resource sharing and conflict early
warning, and environmental conservation.
66 8.2.3 Specific Project Objectives
(i)
Carry out a comprehensive assessment of different formats used throughout the world
and choose or develop the one most appropriate for the EAC regional needs.
(ii) Develop high-powered computer interface software, including internet and web
technology, on an electronic platform to provide information to stakeholders in an
efficient and user-friendly manner. The Atlas should have a structure that is easily
updatable as new and more refined basic data becomes available.
(iii) Produce a hard copy version of the Atlas that can be distributed to providers of climate
outreach services in agriculture, health, tourism, and other socioeconomic sectors which
may not have access to adequate computing and internet capabilities.
(i)
(ii)
An electronic and hardcopy version of the Atlas. In addition to general information, the
contents of the atlas should include special information required in different
weather/climate-sensitive sectors, such as maps of the start-date and end-date of the
rain seasons for agricultural sector, and wind-power potential climate parameters for
the energy sector. This project should in full partnership with the NMHSs and ICPAC
which have compiled the metrics for all the important application sectors.
An easy-to-implement updating mechanism to produce future versions of the Atlas.
8.2.5 Project Scope
The project should be limited to the LVB and be primarily designed to serve EAC citizens, but
should also useful for the international community.
8.2.6 Proposed Membership of Consultancy to Conduct the Project
The consultancy should be led by an expert with: (i) extensive experience in processing of
weather and/or climate data; and (ii) a strong track record in development of atlas content; (iii)
representatives of the NMHSs and ICPAC; and (iv) and a graphics and a software development
expert with appropriate background for the project.
The Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) (http://www.wmo.int/hltgfcs/downloads/HLT_book_full.pdf) will soon be launched and could play a very significant role
in the development of regional capacity through RCCs. The High-Level Taskforce which has led
the planning process for the GFCS is tasked to recommend an end-to-end system for providing
climate services and applying them in decision making at every level of society. Putting this
system in place will require unprecedented collaboration across political, functional, and
disciplinary boundaries with a global mobilization of effort. The High-Level Taskforce asserts
that the widespread, global use of improved climate services, provided through the GFCS
Services, will provide substantial social and economic benefits.
Excerpt from the High-Level Task Force Plan: “… The Taskforce has unanimously
recommended (Recommendation 1) that the international community make the commitment to
67 invest on the order of US$75 million per year to put in place and sustain the Framework. This
investment will build upon existing investments by governments in climate observation systems,
research, and information management systems to return to the community benefits across all
societal sectors but most importantly, and most immediately, in disaster risk reduction, improved
water management, more productive and sustainable agriculture and better health outcomes in
the most vulnerable communities in the developing world…”
The consultancy should work closely with the GFCS secretariat to pursue the opportunity of
becoming one of its first demonstration projects under one of its five near-term implementation
objectives of “…designing and implementing a set of projects that target the needs of developing
countries, particularly those currently least able to provide climate services.…” This could serve
as a prototype for the rest of the EAC region and beyond.
$85,000
$30,000
$15,000
$15,000
$35,000
$45,000
$ 225,000
8.3
Lead expert time
NMHSs and ICPAC consultancies
software expert
graphics expert
travel for team meetings
purchase of computer time and supplies
TOTAL ESTIMATE
Project 3: Plan for a Marine and Atmospheric Observational Network and Water/Air
Quality (CTOR3)
The results of the feasibility project’s assessment indicate a need for a major upgrade in the
observational network for the marine and the meteorological conditions over the LVB. Full
implementation of the upgrade is expensive, leaving EAC Nations with a difficult dilemma of
how to fully fund this solution in the presence of other important competing economic demands
in the transportation, health, and education sectors. This is one of the main reasons we have
proposed under Project 1 to start with a limited upgrade of the monitoring network to
demonstrate the added value of the early warning system in a pilot mode. As noted earlier, this
also has clear benefits of identifying bottlenecks before implementing the full scope of the early
warning system. Furthermore, demonstration of the added value may provide the necessary
motivation for policy makers to become advocates of enhanced meteorological services and
respond favorably to funding requests. However, the limited upgrade in the observational
network is clearly not enough to maximize the potential advantages of meteorological services
for the key application sectors throughout the LVB. Considering the extensive costs noted above
to implement the full package of upgrades recommended in this feasibility study, there is need to
seek new partnerships, within both the EAC region and the international community, to fund the
cost of the monitoring network upgrade. A strategy to achieve this goal is proposed in the next
sections.
68 8.3.2 Overall Project Objective
An interdisciplinary approach is needed to provide the underpinning research knowledge for
addressing the complex set of interlinked technological and socioeconomic needs for enhancing
the benefits of meteorological services for navigation safety and exploitation of natural resources
over the LVB. The components of multidisciplinary research should include: (i) understanding of
the climate dynamics and hydrologic processes that govern the weather and climatic conditions
over the LVB; and (ii) integration of meteorological information into the decision making
process to optimize the outcomes.
Although the primary goal of the NEWS alert system is the provision of operational services, the
high demand for observational network upgrade and development of enhanced modeling
capabilities presents a compelling case for partnership with the research community (which also
needs the upgrade). The multinational nature of the needed research coordination suggests that
we should exploit the services of international science coordinating mechanisms which have
worked well in other regions of the world (e.g., African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis
(AMMA) observational project for West Africa). More specifically, the Global Energy and
Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR)
programs of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) program should be engaged in the
formative stages to provide the necessary climate science oversight in the design of the
observational network. The World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) of WMO is the
appropriate program for providing international oversight for addressing corresponding weather
research observational needs for research. Below, we give brief outlines the missions of
GEWEX, CLIVAR-VACS and WRWP-THORPEX Africa, and GFCS.
(i)
GEWEX: The mission of GEWEX is to measure and predict global and regional
energy and water variations, trends, and extremes (such as heat waves, floods and
droughts) through improved observations and modeling of land, atmosphere, and their
interactions, thereby providing the scientific underpinnings of climate services. In
Africa, GEWEX has a program (AMMA) that focuses on West Africa. Figure 21 shows
a large void of effort over the rest of Africa. In our recommendations for proposed
projects, we suggest creation of the Regional Hydroclimate Project (HYVIC) GEWEX
project to fill this important gap over the LVB (see section 8.3.6). This region has
already been identified by the CLIVAR project to be the focus for its activities in East
Africa.
69 GEWEX REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE PROJECTS
Baltic Sea Experiment
(BALTEX)
Mackenzie GEWEX
Studies (MAGS)
Northern Eurasia Earth
Science Partnership
(NEESPI)
GEWEX Asia Monsoon
Experiments (GAME)
Climate Prediction
Program for the Americas
(CPPA)
Large Scale BiosphereAtmosphere Experiment
in Amazonia
(LBA)
Current RHP's
Former RHP's
Prospective RHP's
Figure
(ii)
Monsoon Asian HydroAtmosphere Science
Research and
prediction Initiative
(MAHASRI)
HYdrological cycle in the
Mediterranean EXperiment
(HYMEX)
African Monsoon
Multidisciplinary Analysis
(AMMA)
La Plata Basin
(LPB)
Murray-Darling Basin
(MDB)
21: International GEWEX Regional Hydroclimate Projects
WCRP CLIVAR-VACS: CLIVAR is the WCRP project that addresses climate
variability and predictability, with a particular focus on the role of ocean-atmosphere
interactions in climate. The CLIVAR component for Africa is called VACS (Variability
of the African Climate System).
CLIVAR’s objectives are as follows:
(i)
Develop and refine a VACS implementation plan, based on the work of the CAWG
(CLIVAR Africa Working Group) and CATT (CLIVAR Africa Task Team), to
diagnose the variability and predictability of African climate and its relationship to the
global climate system. This plan should take into account the specific objectives listed
below.
(ii) Prepare requirements for limited-period and sustained observations in support of the
CLIVAR Programme in and around the African continent; establish links with and
present the requirements to the other major climate-observing programs (e.g., Global
Climate Observing System (GCOS), WWW, GOOS, etc).
(iii) Promote and coordinate efforts for evaluations and improvements of model simulations
(e.g., Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP), Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project (CMIP), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
etc.) for the African region.
(iv) Promote development of African climate databases and foster access thereto for
research purposes in cooperation with projects such as the WMO Climate Computing
Project (CLICOM), the UN Climate Change and Development—Adapting by Reducing
(DARE) Program, etc.
70 (v)
Promote the involvement of African scientists within VACS and the use of VACS
products in capacity building activities.
(vi) Develop cooperative investigations with other CLIVAR groups and national, regional
or international research programs and organizations interested in this area of research.
(vii) Develop links with programs and organizations interested in the application of VACS
research (e.g., Climate Information and Prediction Services (CLIPS), and SysTem for
Analysis, Research and Training (START) and, as far as feasible, integrate
requirements of these programs and organizations into VACS.
(viii) Execute the VACS implementation plan and measure the success of the plan against
stated objectives.
(ix) Report to the CLIVAR Scientific Steering Group as required on progress and problems
in developing and implementing the VACS plan.
(iii) WMO WRWP-THORPEX Africa: The Observing System Research and Predictability
Experiment (THORPEX) responds to the challenges of reducing and mitigating impacts of
natural disasters and to help realize the societal and economic benefits of improved high
impact weather forecasts. One major aspect of the THORPEX international program is the
support for development of plans that meet regional needs. The science plan and
implementation plans are driven by the desire of the African forecasting community to
ensure that the THORPEX scientific work is motivated by interests of the user community,
which has growing and changing needs. THORPEX Africa is being developed with the
overall objective of providing and improving one-day to two-week weather forecasts that
could meet the needs of African society, the economy, and the environment with particular
reference to high impact weather events.
(i)
Develop an EAC GEWEX-CLIVAR observational science plan and an implementation
plan for a limited-period international observing campaign for the LVB to fill the
observational gap in GEWEX global programs over the region (see Figure 21). The
plan should clearly indicate how the upgraded observational network will be sustained
after the limited period international project ends. The science and implementation
plans should be developed in close consultation with and engagement of GEWEX,
WCRP/CLIVAR and GFCS. The LVB Commission should form a consultancy to
develop the science and implementation plan.
(ii)
Conduct a series of workshops and meetings to mobilize international participation in
the implementation of the HYVIC observational project and pledge of support for the
implementation phase. Organizations to be invited to participate include: Climate and
Large-scale Dynamics Program, NSF International Program, NSF Facilities Program,
the World Bank, the World Climate Research Program (WCRP), WMO World Climate
Program and WWW program, Google.org, Ericsson, GSMA, Zain, IGAD, NASA,
Department for International Development (DFID), EAC national governments,
African Development Bank, Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA), the
U.K. Meteorology Office (UKMO), the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric
71 Agency (NOAA), the Canadian International Development Research Centre (IDRC),
START, AMMA, promoters, and others.
(iii) Implementation of the project involving deployment of a comprehensive array of
monitoring land and marine sensors, satellites, ships and aircrafts.
(i)
A science plan and implementation plan for underpinning interdisciplinary research to
support the proposed enhanced meteorological services for improvement of navigation
safety and exploitation of natural resources over the LVB.
(ii)
Regional and international funding commitments to support the implantation of HYVIC
by international governments and organizations.
(iii) An upgraded meteorological and hydrological observational network for the LVB.
8.3.5 Project Scope
The project should be carried out by a consultancy focused on the LVB—the vicinity of and
limited area of Lake Victoria. The consultancy should be led by an eminent scientist with a
strong track record in the coordination of large weather or climate science programs. The leader
for this initiative should have extensive familiarity with the science of the problem and the role
that the WCRP and other research organizations can play in coordinating the planning and
implementation phases of the project. Members of the consultancy should include experts in
observational needs and weather/climate prediction capabilities for the LVB.
Specific Objective 1: To mobilize international support for the HYVIC project, an
international science plan must be developed and endorsed by the relevant international
coordinating organizations. The science plan should be submitted to the WCRP GEWEX
program for approval of a new Regional Hydroclimate Project (HYVIC) focused on the LVB
region. Justification for the project must also indicate how HYVIC will contribute to the
global GCOS Observing Network in addition to the regional network. This is an important
prerequisite for launching and developing a coordinated international activity in climate
monitoring and research. This program has only one initiative (AMMA) that focuses on West
Africa. Figure 21 shows a large void of service over the rest of Africa. HYVIC will help to
fill this gap.
The technical and research criteria for establishing GEWEX/Coordinated Energy and Water
Cycle Observations Project (CEOP) Regional Hydroclimate Projects (RHPs;
http://www.gewex.org/RHP-TOR.pdf ) are summarized below and provide a framework for
the proposed consultancy in developing the HYVIC science plan.
72 Technical Criteria:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Cooperation of a Numerical Weather Prediction centre for provision of atmospheric and
land surface data assimilation;
Atmospheric-hydrologic models for studying transferability and climate variability;
Mechanism for collecting and managing adequate hydrometeorological data sets;
Participation in the open international exchange of scientific information and data;
Interactions with hydrologic services and related groups;
Commitment of adequate resources and personnel;
Evaluation of GEWEX global data products; and
Contributions to CEOP in situ, remote sensing, and model output databases.
Scientific Criteria:
•
•
•
•
•
Observe, simulate, and predict diurnal, seasonal, annual and interannual variability.
Determine climate system variability and critical feedbacks.
Demonstrate improvements in predictions of water-related climate parameters.
Demonstrate the applicability of techniques and models for other regions.
Assess the human impact on hydroclimate variations, including vulnerability to climate
change
Specific Objective 2: The consultancy should conduct workshops to promote and coordinate
US, Europe, Asia and other governments’ contributions to the observational campaign make
presentations
to
potential
partner
agencies
(see
AMMA
example
at
http://www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/amma-us). In these events it should be stressed that field
campaigns (e.g., AMMA and the proposed HYVIC) can provide the starting point for process
based model comparisons. Specific Objective 3:
Task 1: Deploy a comprehensive network of observational sensors across the LVB to
support both operational meteorological services and research.
Task 2: Undertake a major observation campaign collecting data for a limited period at
centralized data archiving facilities that will serve the proposed regional centre for
navigation safety early warning system and center for efficient exploitation of
natural resources.
$30,000,000 Procurement and installation of three radar systems at Mwanza/Tanzania (Tanzania
Government); Eldoret/Kenya radar (Kenya Government); and Entebbe/Uganda (Uganda
Government)
$450,000: Lightning Detection and Location Sensors
$ 50,000 Automated Surface Observation Sensors around the Lake
$125,000: Automated Surface Weather Observation Sensors on Islands
73 $300,000: Integrated Weather Paks
$75,000: GPS Occultation System
$15,000: Lightning Prediction software
$30,000: Stream Gauges
$600,000: 10m Moorings
$396,000: ADCPs
$180,000: Water level monitoring systems
$240,000: Waves measurement system
$84,000: Visibility sensor
$20,000: Observations from fishermen boats
$500,000: computing cluster and peripherals
$200,000: Internet connectivity
$500,000: travel costs (air, land and lake)
$48,000: ship rental (rate $400/day for 4 months during 8 months project)
$700,000: salaries
TOTAL ESTIMATE: $5,903,000 (excludes radar costs).
8.4 Project 4: Plan for the Consultant’s Proposal for a Centre for Meteorological Services
(CMS) for the Lake Victoria Basin (CTOR5)
The provision of meteorological services for the LVB requires a distributed or centralized
coordination mechanism with set of well-defined high level deliverables which are responsive to
the stakeholder high priority concerns and needs. To do this, it needs high performing
governance that will provide vision to implement and expand, in a sustainable mode, the urgent
needs that the consultant has proposed to address under Projects 1-3.
In this feasibility study we propose a broad strategy for the development an institutional
Framework for CMS comprising the following three components:
a) A technical agenda which will require to quickly carrying out a number of highpriority fast track projects, including project-1 through project-3, proposed above.
The Consultant endorses five basic conceptual elements which are illustrated in
Figure 22, and they may be stated as follows: the user interface platform, the
capacity building component; the meteorological information system; the
meteorological research, modeling and prediction component; and the observations
and monitoring component. These fast track projects are aimed at building the
capacity of individual nations of the EAC to sustain the provision of meteorological
services for the LVB region over the long run and would be largely funded through
resources given for aid purposes.
74 b) A governance strategy for the delivery of the technical agenda and establishing
leadership and management capability to take the CMS forward. The leadership
team should have government ownership and support as well as support from the
EAC. It will oversee the technical direction of the committees that are responsible
for delivering the capabilities specified for the five components of the CMS.
c) Mobilization of resources for the implementation phase of CMS
The consultant recommends that the EAC-LVBC establish, as a matter of urgency,
an ad-hoc technical group to develop a detailed implementation plan for the CMS
based upon the broad strategy outlined in this report, this plan to be endorsed by
EAC nations governments through an intergovernmental process prior to its
implementation.
Potential Promoters & Stakeholders
• EAC
• International agencies
• Commercial sources
Observational Network & Analysis System
• Water currents (drifters, ADCPs)
• Temperature (AWOS; CTDs)
• Winds (AWOS; ships/boats)
• Rainfall/Hail rates (AWOS; Radar)
• Marine pollution levels
•
•
•
•
•
Proposed Monitoring Network
Instrument specs for bidders
Instrument locations
AWOS & Radar specs
Data dissemination system
Communication requirements
Weather & Climate Services
Information System
• Data ingest and archiving system
• Hourly (nowcast; analyses)
• 4 times a day 24 hour forecasts
• Seasonal & decadal predictions
•
•
•
•
Proposed Prediction System
Database system
Reanalysis system
NWP model /products options
Computing, internet &
communication requirements
Capacity Building
• Cooperation model with ICPAC
• Complimentary training for
•stakeholders training
Customized User Products
•
•
•
•
Marine transport routing options
Evacuation, search and rescue
Humanitarian operations
Advisories (green, yellow, red)
Proposed Decision Tree Options
Decision tree options involving partnerships among EAC,
government departments &
humanitarian organizations
Delivery Mechanism to Users
• GIS Maps
• Cell phone
• Radio/TV Maps
• Internet/Google Earth Maps
• Local Forums & Newspapers
Proposed User Interface
Questionnaire survey to collect & analyze demographic
information of interface needs for different social, economic, cultural, & educational levels
-‐ Physical processes Research
• Regional model development
• Prediction/applications interface
• Design of monitoring networks
including ship MV Jumuiya
Figure 22: Conceptual Organization of CEMS.
8.4.3 Expected Project Outcomes
(i) Comprehensive technical agenda for the implementation phase of CMS;
(ii) Comprehensive governance plan to steer the implementation of CMS;
(iii) Comprehensive plan for mobilization of resources required to support the
implementation phase of CMS;
75 (iv) Fast-track pilot projects aimed at achieving four outcomes relevant to climate service
users of climate vulnerable communities in developing countries:
- Identifying the optimal methods for obtaining feedback from these communities;
- Building a dialogue between climate service users and those responsible for the
observation;
- Research and information system components of the Framework with the aim of
developing metrics for the performance of the Framework as affected by the
contributions of the components;
- Developing monitoring and evaluation measures for the Framework that are agreed
between users and providers; and
- Improving climate literacy in the user community through a range of public
education initiatives and on-line training programs.
8.4.4 Project Scope
The project should involve, among others, representatives of the stakeholder community,
relevant entities of the EAC and LVCB, and experts in user interfaces, finance resource
mobilization, climate service information systems, observations and monitoring, research,
modeling and prediction, and capacity building.
The structure for the technical programs proposed by World Climate Conference 3 and the HighLevel Task (HLT) team for the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) is broadly
endorsed by the consultant for the proposed CMS Framework. In this sense, CMS is a
customized version for the Lake Victoria region of the agenda proposed by GFCS HLT. This is
done purposely to ensure seamless flow of benefits between CMS and the GFCS. The five main
elements of the Framework presented in Figure 22 are discussed in more detail below.
Specific Objective 1: Development of a comprehensive technical agenda for the implementation
phase of CMS.
For each proposed technical components of the CMS below, there is currently in place a
functioning element at the national and/or EAC regional level that could make a valuable
contribution to its future work. The immediate task is to engage with the expert communities that
operate these existing elements to develop and take forward the CMS work plans.
(i)
Enhancement of the stakeholder (end-user) interface platform: The User Interface
Platform consists of customized user products and a delivery mechanism to users (see
Figure 22).
(ii)
Capacity building: As the HLT for the GFCS has pointed out, a key to success in this
kind of enterprise is the commitment of users to making clear their requirements for
meteorological services. This is the reason we have conducted a comprehensive survey
76 of the stakeholders needs in this feasibility study (see summary of survey results in
section 6.1.2). The User Interface Platform will include workshops, conferences, and
surveys, combined with user and provider expert teams who will analyze the outcomes
of service provision and develop proposals for continuously improving the CMS. Based
on outcomes of these interactions, decisions will be made about the most appropriate
means of delivering the meteorological information (Figure 22) to the appropriate
demographic groups of the stakeholder population or climate-weather-sensitive sector.
(iii) Meteorological information system: This system is needed to collect, process, and
distribute weather and climate data and information according to not only the needs of
users, but also to the procedures agreed by governments and other data owners. It
should be largely based on—or parallel to—the existing internationally-agreed systems
for exchanging and processing meteorological data and information. In concrete terms,
the Weather/Climate Services Information System comprises a network of computers
and communication channels that exchange data and data products, agreed codes and
formats for data exchange, and international agreements on access to data and on the
types of data that should be exchanged. A major bottleneck for communication of the
large datasets involved is the limitation of internet bandwidth. CMS implementation
should fully exploit the new internet undersea Cyber cable system. The example
described below is the Eastern Africa Submarine System (EASSy;
http://www.eassy.org) which is a 9,000-km optic undersea cable system connecting
Africa to the global internet backbone (Figure 23) and hinterland (Figure 24). The
Eastern Africa Submarine Cable System (EASSy) is a landmark fiber-optic cable
project that connects 21 African countries to each other and the rest of the world with
high-quality internet. EASSy provides the last link to completely encircle Africa via
high capacity optic fibre telecommunications networks. It will link to the global
submarine cable network through other regional undersea systems including SAT3,
SAFE, SEA-ME-WE 3, and SEA-ME-WE 4.
GLOBAL CONNECTIVITY
East Africa Digital Transmission System (EADTS)
Linking EASSy to the hinterland
Fibre Cable and Radio Link Routes
Mbale
SEA ME WE 3
Uganda
Malaba Bungoma
Kampala
EASSy
Tororo
Samia
Masaka
Nakuru
Maragoli Forest
Matale
Naivasha
Kisumu
Kyebe
Kiziru
Bukoba
Rubya
SAT-3/WASC
Timboroa
Muhoroni
Mbarara
Mutukula
20
Kenya
Eldoret
Jinja
Geita
R.S.
Nyamanyama
Mwalolala
Nyakasiko
(new site)
Nyabubele Hill
(new site)
Arusha
Tanzania
Nairobi
S. Hill
Oleserewa
Lemeipot
(new site)
Oldinka Losayale
(new site)
Nyashana
Ikoka
Longonot E/S
Sengerema
Mwanza
Muleba
Geita P.O
Karambi
Mrangeizi
new site
Kericho
Ilemelevu (new site)
Namanga
Lengijawe
Themi Hill
Lolkisale
Babati
Sangaiwe (new site)
Sultan Hamud
Voi
Mombasa
Kivumoni
new site
Kilulu
Singo
Kondoa
fibre optic cable
mw/radio link
SAFE
Kimbogolo (new site)
Chenene
existing mw network
border
Tanga
Mengali
Marambao
Manyoni
Morogoro
Dodoma
Imagi Hill
Dar-es-Salaam
Figure 23. African Submarine Optic Cable
Figure 24. East African Transmission System
(iv) Meteorological research, modeling, and prediction component: This element
encompasses the work of expert institutions to improve our understanding of weather
77 and climate over the LVB and to develop core prediction tools, applications, and
products that are essential for the ongoing development and continuous improvement of
climate services. The research community will also make an important contribution to
the Framework by engaging in data and model intercomparisons, studying impacts, and
helping projections for the LVB become widely accepted as one of the regions for
comparative model performances. The CMS centre will gain from this by developing
the capacity to characterize model uncertainty more reliably because of the
participation of a large ensemble of models used at other centers and universities.
There is a large volume of potentially useful research being carried out throughout the
world but much of it is not necessarily directly responsive to stakeholder needs. The
CMS should take up the responsibility to drive the global research agenda for the
region by defining end-user-based research priorities and model evaluation metrics in
collaboration with the GFCS.
Specific Objective 2: Development of a comprehensive governance plan to steer the
implementation of CMS
(i)
The consultant adopts two possible governance structures for consideration, Option A
and Option B presented in Figures 25 and 26, which were developed by the GFCS
HLT. A decision has not been made on which of the two models will be adopted by
GFCS. Each of them has strengths and weaknesses. The consultant recommends that
the planning of CMS pays close attention to the resolution of this issue, since it is
important to align the structure of CMS and GFCS for seamless flow of mutual benefits
among the two organizations.
(ii)
A small EAC-LVBC-based secretariat should support the creation of a core of
leadership and technical expertise that will drive the implementation of all aspects of
the Framework.
(iii) A network of regional technical expertise committees should be created and engaged.
Implementation of the Framework is a technical activity and will need the full support
of a range of technical experts from both user and provider communities to sustain and
advance its components (observations, research, information management and
exchange, and service delivery) in order to meet the objectives defined by governments.
An important element of the implementation strategy will be the creation of a range of
technical committees comprising experts drawn from national institutions who will
work together to build a sustainable framework to provide global access to climate
services. The implementation strategy must provide draft terms of reference for the
technical committees needed to implement the Framework.
78 GOVERNMENTS
A
Intergovernmental Board on the Framework
B
C
D
East African Community System
Lake Victoria Basin Commission
entities
Executive Commitee
Management Committee for User Interface Program
Secretariat
Management Committee for
Climate Service
Information
System
Research, Modeling and Prediction
Management Committee for Observations and Monitoring
Capacity Building
Figure 25. Schematic representation of Option A, for an intergovernmental board.
GOVERNMENTS
East African Community
Chiefs
Executives Board
A
B
C
D
East African Community System
entities
Joint board on the Framework
Secretariat
Management Committee for User Interface Program
Climate Service
Information
System
Executive Commitee
Management Committee for Observations and Monitoring
Research, Modeling and Prediction
Capacity Building
Figure 26. Schematic representation of Option B, the East African Community-led option for implementing
the LVB Institutional Framework (CMS) .
Specific Objective 3: Development of a plan for mobilization of resources required to support the
implementation phase of CMS.
79 Tasks will include the following:
(i)
International Organizations and Private Sector Support: The tasks of implementing
the CMS will require support from development agencies and banks, particularly for
the new initiatives we have proposed, and should also be supported by the country
programs of the EAC and LVBC. A key element of the work plan should be the
demonstration of added value of CMS products to convince the funding sources to
committee support on a sustained basis.
(ii)
EAC Government Support: At the present time, EAC region national governments are
already committing substantial resources to maintaining and developing weather and
climate service functions on a national scale. One role of the CMS is to add value to
these activities. For a small additional contribution to the CMS, substantial national
benefits will be accessible. Collecting data to agreed standards, building regional
capacities in a range of meteorological sensitive sectors, and exchanging data and
expertise regionally. Therefore, a key element of the work plan should be a sustainable,
ongoing program that engages the EAC national governments to participate in and
support the work of the CMS.
80 Annex-1: Original Terms of Reference (TOR) and Mapping on Consolidated
Terms of Reference (CTOR)
The consultancy will cover the entire LVB, as is defined by the LVB Commission. Mapping of
the original TORs to the CTORs is shown in Table 4, below.
In carrying out the assignment, the consultant will:
A. Assess the existing weather observation network, data processing capabilities, and timeliness
of dissemination of information and products on the lake and its basin with a view toward
identifying existing inadequacies and making suitable recommendations to address them. The
issues to be assessed would include:
1. Meteorological observing stations network over Lake Victoria and its basin;
2. Development and timely dissemination of tailored weather forecasts, warnings, and
advisories for marine operations and safety of navigation in Lake Victoria and its
basin;
3. Need for deployment of sensors to monitor the three-dimensional (rather than surface
only) circulation and chemical conditions of the lake;
4. Development of a fully coupled lake-atmosphere prediction system for the threedimensional changes in circulation and pollution on short-term weather scales from a
few days to seasonal and longer time scales based on a regional climate model and a
three-dimensional model of the lake's circulation;
5. Provision of critical information for fisheries, ecosystem, transportation, lake
pollution, and hydroelectric power generation, etc.;
6. Deployment of state-of-the-art information technology, such as Google Earth and
geographic information systems (GIS), to improve the interpretation of the multifaceted conditions over, around, and within Lake Victoria;
7. Deployment of data collection platforms and automatic weather observing systems;
8. Deployment of drifting and fixed buoys in the lake;
9. Installation of automatic weather observing systems on MV Jumuiya and other
vessels;
10. Deployment of weather radars;
11. Technical and end user training;
12. Establishment of a Meteorological Early Warning Coordination Centre for Lake
Victoria and its basin;
13. Research involving MV Jumuiya;
14. Development of meteorological information requirements for transportation, tourism,
fishing, and related sectors;
15. Development of environmental sensitivity maps related to meteorology;
16. Deployment of a network of instruments for pollution monitoring on Lake Victoria;
and Capacity building and research.
B. Prioritize the project components.
C. Estimate the cost of the project, clearly showing the financial resources required for
implementation of each component.
81 D. Organize national consultation meetings and a regional workshop to enlist the views of
stakeholders and obtain feedback on the draft report.
E.
Prepare and submit the Final Feasibility Study Report. Table 4. Original TORs and CTORs
TOR-A-1
TOR-A-2
TOR-A-3
TOR-A-4
TOR-A-5
TOR-A-6
TOR-A-7
TOR-A-8
TOR-A-9
TOR-A-10
TOR-A-11
TOR-A-12
TOR-A-13
TOR-A-14
TOR-A-15
TOR-A-16
TOR-B
TOR-C
TOR-D
TOR-E
CTOR-1
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
CTOR-2
CTOR-3
✔
CTOR-4
✔
CTOR-5
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
82 Annex 2: Reports and Documentation Available to the Project Team
Table 5. Bibliography
Organization
NCSU
Author
Semazzi, H. F. M
NCSU
Anyah R.O., and F.H.M.
Semazzi
NCSU
Anyah R.O and F.H.M.
Semazzi 2006
NCSU
Anyah, R. O., F. H. M.
Semazzi and L. Xie
NCSU
Anyah, R.O., F.H.M.
Semazzi and L. Xie
NCSU
Song Y, F.H.M Semazzi,
L. Xie and L.J Ogallo
Hostetler, S.W., G.T.
Bates, and F. Giorgi
NCAR
Beletsky
Chen
Beletsky, D., W.
P. O’Connor, D.
J. Schwab, and D.
Dietrich
Chen, F., and J. Dudhia
Collins
Collins, W.D. et al.,
Hong
Hong, S.-Y., J. Dudhia,
and S.-H. Chen
Hong
Hong, S.-Y., and Y.
Noh, and J. Dudhia
Kain
Kain, J. S., and J. M.
Fritsch
Skamarock
Skamarock, W. C., J. B.
Klemp, J. Dudhia, D. O.
Gill, D. M. Barker, W.
Wang, and J. G. Powers
Wang, W., and
Coauthors
Wang
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countries. CLIMATE RESEARCH, Vol. 47: 145–150.
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surface temperatures. Theoretical and Applied
Climatology, 79, 55-69.
NCAR-AGCM ensemble simulations of the variability
of the Greater Horn of Africa Climate. Special issue of
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 86, 39-62.
Hydrodynamic characteristics of Lake Victoria based
on idealized 3D Lake Model Simulations. Special Issue
of International Journal of Climatology.
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climate variability over LVB in East Africa; Monthly
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land-surface/hydrology model with the Penn
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entrainment processes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 2318–
2341.
Kain, J. S., and J. M. Fritsch, 1990: A one-dimensional
entraining/detraining plume model and its application
in convective parameterization, J. Atmos. Sci., 47,
2784–2802.
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D. M. Barker, W. Wang, and J. G. Powers, 2005: A
Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 2.
NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-468+STR.
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modeling system User's guide. [Available online from
http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/docs/user_guide/]
2001
2004
2006
2009
2006
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1997
2004
2004
2006
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2005
2010
83 IMO
EAC
James Woollcott;
National Ports Authority
of South Africa
Urban Hall berg
Sjöfartsverket
Sweden
Scanbi-Invest
EAC
EAC
EAC
EAC
IMO
Govt of Kenya,
Tanzania and
Seychelles
EAC
EAC
EAC
EAC
EAC
EAC
EAC
EAC
EAC
GSMA
Development
Fund
GSMA,
Ericsson,
Zain
Zain
IGAD
GSMA, Ericsson, Zain
Lancaster
Lancaster
WCRP-CCL
CLIPS
Commission for
Climatology-World
Climate Research
Program
WMO-CLIPS
WMO
WMO
WMO-GFCS
WMO-SWFDP
WMO
WMO-SWFDP
Mission Report Improvement Of Aids To Navigation
On Lake Victoria
2002-07
Report, Implementation of a Search and Rescue
Service on Lake Victoria
2002-07
Study on the Technical Solution for Maritime
Communications for Lake
Victoria
Tripartite Agreement on Inland Waterway Transport
The Inter State Agreement Concerning the Use of
Search and Rescue Facilities
MoU among Kenya, Tanzania, and Seychelles on the
Establishment of Mombasa MRCC and its Sub-centres
in Tanzania and Seychelles
The Lake Victoria Transport Act
The report of the stakeholders meeting to discuss the
draft report on the study of the technical solution for
maritime communications for Lake Victoria
Report on field study on the technical solution for
maritime communication on Lake Victoria
establishment of maritime rescue coordination centre
Project - Inception Report
Project information to technical committee, Meeting
National Lake Rescue Institute, Uganda NLRI Various
reports and documents available from www.lakeresue.org.
Feasibility Study presentation (GSMA)
2006-03
1998-04
2002-09
2002
2007
2006-04
2006-10
2003-2009
2008
GSMA, Ericsson, Zain
GSMA, Ericsson,
Zain Press releases 2008 and 2008
2008
Zain
ICPAC/RCOF
Feasibility Study presentation
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/document/
RCOFsBrochure.pdf; and
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/RCOFRevi
ew2008.html):
Aid to Africa. University of Chicago Press, 1999, pp.
xiv +303.
www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/ccl/documents/Joint_C
Cl_WCRP_Statement_2010.pdf.
2008
2008
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/CLIPSIntr
oduction.html
www.wmo.int/hlt-gfcs/index_en.html
Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project-Eastern
Africa: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/CBS
Reports/documents/Final_report_SWFDPEastern_Africa-Nairobi_workshop.pdf )
“SWFDP Overall Project Plan (2010)”, and “SWFDP
Guidebook for Planning Regional Subprojects (2010)”
that have been developed by the Commission for Basic
Systems (CBS) Steering Group on the SWFDP
2010
7.3.9
1999
2010
2010
2010
84 WMO
WMO-WAP
RCOF
RCOF
U of Nairobi
Chen
Mutemi, J.N., L. A.
Ogallo, T. N.
Krishnamurti, A. K.
Mishra, and T. S. V.
Vijaya Kumar
Chen, F., and J. Dudhia
Collins
Collins, W.D. et al.,
Hong
Hong, S.-Y., J. Dudhia,
and S.-H. Chen
Hong
Hong, S.-Y., and Y.
Noh, and J. Dudhia
Huffman
Huffman, G.J., R.F.
Adler, B. Rudolf, U.
Schneider, and P.R.
Keehn
Huffman, G.J
Huffman
Huffman
Huffman
Kain
Skamarock
Wang
Huffman, G.J., R.F.
Adler, P. Arkin, A.
Chang, R. Ferraro, A.
Gruber, J. Janowiak, A.
McNab, B. Rudolph, and
U. Schneider
Huffman, G.J., R.F.
Adler, D.T. Bolvin, G.
Gu, E.J. Nelkin, K.P.
Bowman, Y. Hong, E.F.
Stocker, D.B. Wolff
Kain, J. S., and J. M.
Fritsch
Skamarock, W. C., J. B.
Klemp, J. Dudhia, D. O.
Gill, D. M. Barker, W.
Wang, and J. G. Powers
Wang, W., and
Coauthors
(http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/DPFS/Meetings
/RAI-EA-TPWSWFDP_Nairobi2010/DocPlan.html) Mobile Weather Alert Project (WAP)(http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/amp/pwsp/documents
/Nkalubo_Uganda_1.pdf)
www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/RCOFReview
2008.html
Multimodel based super ensemble forecasts for short
and medium range NWP over various regions of
Africa. Meteorol Atmos Phys 95, 87-113.
2011
2008
2007
Coupling an advanced land-surface/hydrology model
with the Penn State/NCAR MM5 modeling system.
Part I: Model description and implementation. Mon.
Wea. Rev., 129, 569–585.
Description of the NCAR Community Atmosphere
Model (CAM3.0), NCAR Technical Note, NCAR/TN464+STR, 226pp.
A Revised Approach to Ice Microphysical Processes
for the Bulk Parameterization of Clouds and
Precipitation, Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 103–120.
A new vertical diffusion package with an explicit
treatment of entrainment processes. Mon. Wea. Rev.,
134, 2318–2341.
Global precipitation estimates based on a technique for
combining satellite-based estimates, rain gauge
analysis, and NWP model precipitation information, J.
Climate, 8, 1284-1295.
Estimates of root-mean-square random error for finite
samples of estimated precipitation, J. Appl. Meteor.,
1191-1201.
The global precipitation climatology project (GPCP)
combined precipitation dataset, Bull. Amer. Meteor.
Soc., 78, 5-20.
2001
The TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis:
Quasi-Global, Multi-Year, Combined-Sensor
Precipitation Estimates at Fine Scale. J. Hydrometeor.,
8(1), 38-55.
2007
A one-dimensional entraining/detraining plume model
and its application in convective parameterization, J.
Atmos. Sci., 47, 2784–2802.
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2. NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-468+STR.
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WRF version 3 modeling system User's guide.
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2004
2004
2006
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85 Annex 3: Programme for the Stakeholders’ Workshop
STAKEHOLDERS WORKSHOP FOR ENHANCING SAFETY OF NAVIGATION AND EFFICIENT EXPLOITATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES OVER LAKE VICTORIA AND ITS BASIN BY STRENGHTENING METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR LAKE VICTORIA 18TH – 19TH JULY 2011 TOM MBOYA COLLEGE, KISUMU, KENYA Agenda Day-‐1: July 18th Session 1 8:30 am – 9:30 am: Welcome remarks and introductions - LVBC Secretariat - Project PI - Introductions of all participants - Brief message from each EAC member country (Burundi, Rwanda, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda) Session 2 9:30 am-‐10:00 am: Objective; scope and perspective of the project Tea Break 10:00 am-‐10:15 am Session 3 10:15 am-‐2:00 pm: - Reports from the experts and discussion - Atmospheric observations expert report (Sandra Yuter/Casey Burleyson/Lynn Rose) - Marine observations and prediction system expert report (Lian Xie) - Discussion (Lead TBA; Rap TBA) Lunch Break 12:15 pm-‐01:00 pm Session 3 (continued) 01:00am-‐02:00 pm - User interface expert report (James Kiwanuka-‐Tondo) - Discussion (Lead TBA; Rap TBA) Session 4 02:00pm-‐0300pm - Status and Gaps in areas investigated by experts - NMHS (Representatives of 5 EAC member countries) - ICPAC (Ogallo/Mutemi) Tea Break 03:00pm-‐03:15pm Session 6 03:15pm-‐05:15pm - Three Breakout Groups (Chairs: Ambenje/Mutemi,Ogallo, Semazzi) - TOR to be circulated during the session 86 Day-‐2: July 19th Session 6 08:30am-‐09:00am Report back of the breakout groups by rap, experts (Casey Burleyson/Lynn, James Kiwanuka-‐Tondo, Lian Xie; chair, TBA) Session 7 09:00am-‐09:15am Discussion and wrap up of session 6 (Chair TBA; rap, experts) Session 8 (concurrent with tea) Training on survey questionnaire (James Kiwanuka-‐Tondo) Session 9 11:15am-‐01:00pm : Way Forward 01:00pm-‐01:30pm Closing TOR for Breakout Groups: gaps; identify collaborators; strategy for implementation (to be completed on Sunday at dinner: Fred, Laban, Joseph, Peter, James, Casey, Lynn, Lian, Gerson, Mungai) 87 Annex 4: List of Delegates Attending the Workshop for Stakeholders for
Enhancing Safety of Navitagion and Efficient Exploitation of Natural Resources
over Lake Victoria and its Basin by Strengthening Meteorological Services for
Lake Victoria Basin
BURUNDI
Mr. Dukundane Dieudonne
Ag. Director
Ministry of Transport, Public Works and
Equipment
International Transport Department
Bujumbura Port Administrative Building
P.O. Box 2400
Bujumbura, BURUNDI
Tel. No: +257-79340517
Fax No: +257-22-223346
Email: [email protected]
Mr. Rurantije Aloys
Director
Geographic Institute of Burundi
Hydro-Meteorological Department
B.P. 34
Gitega, BURUNDI
Tel. No: +257-79957912
Fax No: +257-22402625
Mr. Ruben Barakiza
Senior Meteorologist
Burundi National Meteorological Service
P.O. Box 331
Bujumbura, BURUNDI
Tel. No: +257-79948450
Fax No: +257-22-402625
RWANDA
Mr. Twahirwa Anthony
Meteorologist
Rwanda Meteorological Services
Meteorology Department
B.P. 898
Kigali, RWANDA
Tel. No: +250-788484636
TANZANIA
Mr. Ndikuriyo Richard
Advisor at Department of Infrastructure,
Economics and Sector Productive
Ministry of East African Community Affairs
B.P. 6054
Bujumbura, BURUNDI
Tel. No: +257-79915836
Fax No: +257-22258040
Mr. Wilbert Timiza
Meteorologist
Tanzania Meteorological Agency
P.O. Box 3056
Dar es Salaam, TANZANIA
Tel. No: +255-22-2460706
Fax No: +255-22-2460735
Email:
[email protected];
[email protected]
Mr. Gahungu Fidéle
Director
Ministry of Agriculture
ISABU/DEMSP
Avenue de la Cathedrale
Bujumbura, BURUNDI
Tel. No: +257-79923799
UGANDA
Dr. Wesonga Ronald
Principal Meteorologist
Ministry of Water and Environment
P.O. Box 7025
Kampala, UGANDA
Tel. No: +256-772454680
Fax No: +256-414-321403
88 KENYA
Mr. Peter Ambenje
Deputy Director
Ministry of Environment and Mineral Resources
Kenya Meteorological Department
P.O. Box 30259 – 00100
Nairobi, KENYA
Tel. No: +254-20-3876957
Fax No: +254-20-3876955
Mr. Charles O. Mugah
Provincial Director of Meteorology
Kenya Meteorological Services
P.O. Box 336
Kisumu, KENYA
Tel. No: +254-729001060
Fax No: +254-57-2024105
Mr. Geoffrey P. Kituyi
Assistant Director of Agriculture
Ministry of Agriculture
Policy, Programmes and Projects
P.O. Box 30028 – 00100
Nairobi, KENYA
Tel. No: +254-722484801
Fax No: +254-20-2718810
Ms. Jane M. Kibwage
Assistant Director of Fisheries
Ministry of Fisheries Development
P.O. Box 58187 – 00200
Nairobi, KENYA
Tel. No: +254-20-3742320/722715517
Ms. Felistus M. Kilile
Tourist Officer
Ministry of Tourism
Tourism Department
P.O. Box 55 - 40123
Kisumu, KENYA
Tel. No: +254-57-2033865
Fax No: +254-57-2500168
Email: [email protected];
[email protected]
Mr. Ogallo Laban
Director
ICPAC
IGAD/ICPAC
P.O. Box 10304
Nairobi, KENYA
Tel. No: +254-20-3514426
Fax No: +254-20-3514426
Dr. Joseph N. Mutemi
Climate Scientist
ICPAC/University of Nairobi
Meteorology Department
P.O. Box 30192 – 00100
Nairobi, KENYA
Tel. No: +254-722890176
Mr. Stephen Njoroge
WMO Representative
World Meteorological Organization
P.O. Box 1395 – 00606
Nairobi, KENYA
Tel. No: +254-20-3877371
Fax No: +254-20-3877371
Dr. Godfrey O. Ogonda
Deputy Director Incharge of Programmes
Osienala (Friends of Lake Victoria)
P.O. Box 4580 – 40103
Nairobi, KENYA
Tel. No: +254-728777863
Dr. Tsuma Jembe
Senior Research Scientist
K.M.F.R.I.
P.O. Box 1881 - 40100
Kisumu, KENYA
Tel. No: +254-20-2443891
Mr. John Ooko
Chairman LVRS Mbita/Suba
National Chairman
P.O. Box 125
Mbita, Homa Bay, KENYA
Tel. No: +254-20-726506815
89 Mr. John Onyango Ongoro
Locational Coordinator
Rescue/BMU
P.O. Box 241
Mbita, KENYA
Tel. No: +254-729983764
Mr. Jared Onyango
Transport Boat Owners
P.O. Box 315
Mbita, KENYA
Tel. No: +254-733529826
Mr. Elly Owaga Odongo
District Coordinator
Lake Victoria Rescue and Safety Networking
Group
Rescue and Safety
P.O. Box 39
Siaya, KENYA
Tel. No: +254-717951592
Mr. William Orembo Okilla
Community Member BMU
Fishing/Rescue
P.O. Box 54
Usenge, KENYA
Tel. No: +254-751788945
Mr. Naum Otieno Okila
General Coordinator
Lake Victoria Rescue and Safety Networking
Group
P.O. Box 297 – 40305
Mbita, KENYA
Tel. No: +254-729706948
Fax No: +254-59-212286
Email:
[email protected]
Mr. Daniel Ouko Onyango
BMU Secretary and Division Coordinator
Lake Victoria Rescue and Safety Team
Rescue and Safety Department
P.O. Box 357
Mbita, KENYA
Tel. No: +254-725217600
Mr. Peter Odhiambo Oluoch
Divisional Secretary
Lake Victoria Rescue
Rescue BMU
P.O. Box 309
Mbita, KENYA
Tel. No: +254-738376666
Mr. Edward Ochaye Nyambeka
BMU Chairman
Lake Victoria Rescue and Safety
Rescue and Safety Department
P.O. Box 584
Bondo, KENYA
Tel. No: +254-727298320
Mr. Moses Ratori Gusero
District BMU Chairman
District Coordinator, Samia
P.O. Box 88
Sio Port, Busia, KENYA
Tel. No: +254-737817254/710362424
Mr. Joseph Ekhaba Nyangweso
Bunyala District Coordinator
P.O. Box 33
Port Victoria, Busia, KENYA
Tel. No: +254-718792930
Mr. Maurice Otieno Owuor
District Coordinator, Kisumu West/BMU
Chairman
Lake Victoria Safety and Net Group
P.O. Box 41
Paw-Akuche, KENYA
Tel. No: +254723790994/723790994/735568935
Mr. Zadock Ogongo Otieno
District Coordinator, Kisumu East
BMU Treasurer
Lake Victoria Safety and Network Group
Rescue and Safety
P.O. Box 41
Paw-Akuche, KENYA
Tel. No: +254-713596879
90 Mr. Peter Ouma Anyango
BMU Patrol
P.O. Box 63
Madiany, KENYA
Tel. No: +254-715276744
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (USA)
Dr. James Kiwanuka Tondo
Associate Professor
North Carolina State University
Communication Department
Campus Box 8104, Raleigh, NC 27695
USA
Tel. No: +919-513-1477
Fax No: +919-515-9456
Dr. Pascal Waniha
Research Associate
Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Science
4144 Jordan Hall
Raleigh, NC 27695 - 8208
USA
Tel. No: +919-515-2470
Mr. Casey Burleyson
Graduate Student/Radar Meteorologist
Marine Earth and Atmospheric Science
535 Jordan Hall
NC, State University
Raleigh, NC 27695
Tel. No: +1-704-491-5942
R. Lynn Rose
Consultant to North Carolina State University
Atmospheric Technology Service Company
P.O. Box 3029
Norman, OK
USA
Tel. No: +918-688-7801
Fax No: +405-325-2005
Prof. LIAN XIE
Professor
Department of MEAS, NCSU
P.O. Box 8208
Raleigh, NC 276 - 8208
USA
Tel. No: +919-515-1435
Fax No: +919-515-7802
EAST ARICAN COMMUNITY
SECRETARIAT [EAC]
Ms. Ntamubano Wivine
Principal Environment Natural
Officer
AICC, 5th Floor, Kilimanjaro Wing
P.O. Box 1096
Arusha, TANZANIA
Tel. No: +255-27-2504253/8
Resources
Mr. John Mungai
Senior Meteorologist
AICC, 5th Floor, Kilimanjaro Wing
P.O. Box 1096
Arusha, TANZANIA
Tel. No: +255-27-2504253/8/+255-762390982
LAKE VICTORIA BASIN COMMISSION
SECRETARIAT [LVBC]
Dr. Canisius K. Kanangire
Executive Secretary
P.O. Box 1510 – 40100
Kisumu, KENYA
Tel. No: +254-57-2026344/2023873/894
Fax No: +254-57-2026324
Mr. Samuel K. Gichere
Deputy Executive Secretary
Programmes and Projects [PP]
P.O. Box 1510 – 40100
Kisumu, KENYA
Tel. No: +254-57-2026344/2023873/894
Fax No: +254-57-2026324
91 Mr. Gerson Fumbuka
Maritime Safety Officer
P.O. Box 1510 – 40100
Kisumu, KENYA
Tel. No: +254-57-2026344/2023873/894
Fax No: +254-57-2026324
Mr. Fredrick Mhina Mngube
Environment and Natural Resources Officer
P.O. Box 1510 – 40100
Kisumu, KENYA
Tel. No: +254-57-2026344/2023873/894
Fax No: +254-57-2026324
Dr. Raymond Mngodo
Regional Project Coordinator – LVEMP II
P.O. Box 1510 – 40100
Kisumu, KENYA
Tel. No: +254-57-2026344/2023873/894
Fax No: +254-57-2026324
Ms. Anne Awinja
Personal Secretary
P.O. Box 1510 – 40100
Kisumu, KENYA
Tel. No: +254-57-2026344/2023873/894
Fax No: +254-57-2026324
Mr. Vincent Hagono
Project Coordinator – MCSLV
P.O. Box 1510 – 40100
Kisumu, KENYA
Tel. No: +254-57-2026344/2023873/894
Fax No: +254-57-2026324
92 Annex 5: Survey Questionnaire
North Carolina State University, Lake Victoria Basin Commission, and the meteorology
departments of the East African Community member countries are interested in your views
about marine safety and efficient exploitation of natural resources on Lake Victoria and its
basin. Please respond as honestly as you can. All responses are important to us. If unsure
give us your best guess.
Section A:
1.
What is your sex?
Please circle one
Male 2.
Age
Female Please circle one
3.
Below 15 years
15-18 years
19-24 years
25-34 years
35-44 years
45-54 years
55 and above
What is your marital status?
Please circle one
Single
4.
5.
6.
7.
Married
Divorced
Dating
Widowed
What is your country of residence? ________________________(Pease indicate)
What is the distance of the place of residence from the landing site in kilometers?
________________________(Pease indicate)
What main languages do you speak ____________________________________(Pease
indicate)
What is your employment status?
Please circle one
93 Self-employed
Employed by other(s)
Not employed
8.
Please state your occupation _______________________________
9.
What is your monthly income? Please circle one
$0-‐$999 $1,000-‐$1,999 $2,000-‐$2,999 $3,000-‐$3,999 10.
What is the highest level of education that you have achieved?
$4,000-‐$4,999 More than $5,000 Please circle one
No formal education
Elementary School
Middle School
High School
graduate degree /diploma
Two-year college
Bachelors
degree
Post-
Section B:
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
What are the most important navigation hazards on Lake Victoria?
_______________________________________________ (Please indicate in rank of
importance)
What are the most important weather hazards on Lake Victoria?
importance)
What are the most important water hazards on Lake Victoria?
importance)
What specific weather hazards have you experienced on Lake Victoria in the past three
months? _______________________________________ (Please indicate)
Which are the most dangerous hot spots or rocky crops that you know on Lake Victoria?
_______________________________________ (Please indicate)
Do you know where the meteorology station/ weather station in your district or region is
located?
Please circle one
Yes No 94 17.
If you answered NO, please skip to question 22 Do you know the services that the meteorology / weather station in your district or region
provides?
Please circle one
Yes No If you answered NO, please skip to question 22 18.
How much do you know about the services that the meteorology / weather stations in
your district or region provide?
Please circle one
Very little
19.
Fairly little
Not sure
quite a lot
A lot
How much information about weather changes on the Lake Victoria do the meteorology
/weather stations in your district or region provides?
Please circle one
Very little
20.
Fairly little
Not sure
quite a lot
A lot
How much information about storms on the Lake Victoria do the meteorology /weather
stations in your district or region provide?
Please circle one
Very little
21.
Fairly little
Not sure
quite a lot
A lot
How much information about the safety of Lake Victoria do the meteorology / weather
stations in your district or region provide?
Please circle one
95 Very little
22.
Fairly little
Not sure
quite a lot
A lot
In which season do you normally experience severe storms on Lake Victoria?
Please circle one
March- May
June-August
September-November
December-February
23.
24.
How many times have seen storms on Lake Victoria in the past three months?
_________________________________ (Please indicate)
Do you know anyone who has died or drowned or whose boat capsized on Lake Victoria
in the past three months?
Please circle one
Yes No 25.
26.
If you answered NO, please skip to question 26 How many people have died or drowned on Lake Victoria in the past three months?
_______________________________________ (Please indicate)
Please indicate how satisfied you are with the information about weather changes that the
meteorology / weather station /media /disaster preparedness office in your district or
region provides.
Please circle one
Very unsatisfied
27.
Unsatisfied
Not sure
Satisfied
Very satisfied
Please indicate how satisfied you are with the information about safety on Lake Victoria
that the meteorology / weather station /media /disaster preparedness office in your district
or region provides.
Very unsatisfied
Unsatisfied
Not sure
Satisfied
Very satisfied
Section C:
28.
What is the traditional name for Lake Victoria in your language?
_________________________________________________ (Please indicate)
96 29.
30.
What does this name mean? _________________________________ (Please indicate)
Have you traveled by boat or ship on Lake Victoria in the past three months?
Please circle one
Yes No 31.
If you answered NO, please skip to question 31 How often do you travel in a boat or ship on Lake Victoria?
Please circle one
Rarely
32.
Not sure
Sometimes
Always
How comfortable have you felt when you traveled by boat or ship on Lake Victoria in the
past three months?
Please circle one
Very uncomfortable
Comfortable
33.
Uncomfortable
Unsure
Very comfortable
Have you been fishing on Lake Victoria in the past three months?
Please circle one
Yes No 34.
If you answered NO, please skip to question 42 How often do you fish on Lake Victoria?
Please circle one
97 Rarely
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
Not sure
Sometimes
Always
How far from the landing site in kilometers do you normally fish?
_________________________________________________ (Please indicate)
How long does it normally take you to get from the landing site to the fishing point?
_________________________________________________ (Please indicate)
What time do you normally set out for fishing on Lake Victoria? your fishing operation?
_________________________________________________ (Please indicate)
What time do you normally set out for the return journey from your fishing operation?
_________________________________________________ (Please indicate)
What are the most favorable weather conditions for fishing on Lake Victoria?
_________________________________________________ (Please indicate)
What are the most favorable water conditions for fishing on Lake Victoria?
_________________________________________________ (Please indicate)
How comfortable have you felt when fishing on Lake Victoria in the past three months?
Please circle one
Very uncomfortable
Comfortable
42.
Uncomfortable
Unsure
Very comfortable
Please indicate how satisfied you are with the exploitation of Lake Victoria for fishing?
Please circle one
Very unsatisfied
43.
Unsatisfied
Not sure
Satisfied
Very satisfied
Please indicate how satisfied you are with the exploitation of Lake Victoria for providing
fresh water?
Please circle one
Very unsatisfied
44.
Unsatisfied
Not sure
Satisfied
Very satisfied
Please indicate how satisfied you are with the exploitation of Lake Victoria for irrigation
of crops?
Please circle one
Very unsatisfied
45.
Unsatisfied
Not sure
Satisfied
Very satisfied
Please indicate to what extent you feel the Lake Victoria contributes to the spread of
malaria in your district or region.
Please circle one
98 Very little
46.
Fairly little
Not sure
quite a lot
A lot
cholera in your district or region.
Please circle one
Very little
47.
Fairly little
Not sure
quite a lot
A lot
typhoid in your district or region.
Please circle one
Very little
48.
Fairly little
Not sure
quite a lot
A lot
HIV/AIDS in your district or region.
Please circle one
Very little
Fairly little
Not sure
quite a lot
A lot
Section D:
49.
Do you have a cell phone?
Yes No 50.
51.
52.
53.
If you answered NO, please skip to question 43 How many times have you used a cell phone to get information regarding Lake Victoria
in the past three months? ________________________________(Please indicate)
Where do you get information about the weather in your district or region?
______________________________________________(Please indicate)
Who do you trust the most on information regarding Lake Victoria?
______________________________________________(Please indicate)
What else should be done by the lake Victoria Basin Commission or meteorology
/weather stations or governments to improve safety of navigation on Lake Victoria?
______________________________________________(Please indicate)
Thank you very much for taking time to answer the questionnaire. 99 Annex-6: Evidence of Severe Weather over Lake Victoria (Waterspouts over
Lake Victoria)
Evidence
of
Waterspouts
over
Lake
Victoria
(Hale
Carpenter,
Nature,
1922,
No
2760,
Vol.
110)
100 Figure 27: Evidence of water spouts over Lake Victoria, a potential hazard for marine
navigation over the lake to be assessed in the feasibility study. (Pictures of water spout in
Entebbe, Uganda, 14 December 2009, from video footage of a waterspout over Lake
Victoria; full video at http://wn.com/Water_Spout_Entebbe-Uganda)
101 Annex 7: List of Acronyms
ADB
ADCPS
AMIP
AMMA
AMSS
ARW
AMSS
ATS
ATSC
AWOS
AWS
CATT
CAWG
CBS
CCl
CEOP
CLICOM
CLIMLAB
CLIPS
CLIVAR
CMIP
CML
CTB
CTD
CTOR
DARE
DFID
EAC
EASSy
ECMWF
ENSO
EOL
EUMETSAT
GCOS
GDPFS
GEWEX
GFCS
GFS
GOOS
GPS
GSMA
HLT
HYVIC
African Development Bank
Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers
Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project
African Monsoon Multi-Disciplinary Analysis
Automatic Message Switching System
Advanced Research WRF
Automatic Message Switching System
Atmospheric Technology Services
Atmospheric Technology Services Company
Automatic Weather Observation Systems
Automatic Weather Systems
CLIVAR Africa Task Team
Clivar Africa Working Group
Commission for Basic Systems
Commission of Climatology
Coordinated Energy and Water Cycle Observations Project
Climate Computing Project
Climate Modeling Laboratory
Climate Information and Prediction Services
Climate Variability
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
Climate Modeling Laboratory
Climate Test Bed
Conductivity Temperature and Depth
Consolidated Terms of Reference
Climate Change and Development Adapting by Reducing
Department for International Development
East Africa Community
East Africa Submarine Cable System
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
El-Nino / Southern Oscillation
Earth Observing Laboratory
European Meteorological Satellites
Global Climate Observing System
Global Framework for Climate Services
Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment
Global Framework for Climate Services
Global Forecast System
Global Ocean Observing System
Global Positioning Systems
Global System for Mobile Association
High Level Taskforce
Regional Hydroclimate Project
102 ICAO
ICPAC
ICTP
IDRC
IGAD
IMO
IOOS
IPCC
JNT
KMD
KOICA
LST
LVB
LVBC
MTN
MV
MRMS
MSG
NASA
NCAR
NCEP
NCST
NCSU
NEWS
NGOs
NGWLMS
NMHS
NMS
NSF
NWLON
NWP
PBL
PEER
PI
POM
PPP
PR
PWS
QBO
R&D
RAL
RCC
RCOF
RSIP
RSMC
RegCM
International Civil Aviation Authority
IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center
International Centre for Theoretical Physics
International Development Research Centre
Inter-Governmental Authority on Development
International Maritime Organization
Integrated Ocean Observing System
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Joint Numerical Testbed
Kenya Meteorological Department
Korea International Cooperation Agency
Lake Surface Temperature
Lake Victoria Basin
Mobile Telephone Network
Marine Vessel
Meteorological Risk Management Strategies
Meteosat Second Generation
National Aeronautic and Space Administration
National Center for Atmospheric Research
National Centre for Environmental Prediction
National Council of Science and Technology
Navigation Early Warning System
Non Governmental Organizations
Next Generation Water Level Measurement System
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
National Meteorological Centre
National Science Foundation
NOAA-National Water Level Observation Network
Numerical Weather Prediction
Planetary Boundary Layer
Partnerships for Enhanced Engagement in Research
Principal Investigator
Princeton Ocean Model
Public Private Partnership
Precipitation Radar
Public Weather Services
Quasi-Bi-annual Oscillation
Research and Development
Research Applications Laboratory
Regional Climate Centre
Regional Climate Outlook Forum
Regional Sub-project Implementation Plan
Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre
Regional Coupled Model
103 RHP
SAR
SOP
SMS
SST
START
SWAN
SWFDP
THORPEX
TOR
TRMM
UK
UKMO
US
USAID
USD
VACS
WAP
WCRP
WGNR
WIO
WLS
WMO
WRF
WSM5
WWRP
YSU
ZDR
Regional Hydroclimate Projects
Search and Rescue
Science Oversight Panel
Short Message Service
Sea Surface Temperature
SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training
Simulating WAves Nearshore Model
Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project
THe Observing system Research and Predictability EXperiment
Terms of Reference
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission
United Kingdom
United Kingdom Meteorological Office
United States
United States Agency for International Development
United Stated Dollars
Variability of the African Climate System
Mobile Weather Alert Project
World Climate Research Program
Working Group on Nowcasting Research
Western Indian Ocean
Water Level Stations
World Meteorological Organization
Weather and Research Forecast model
WRF Single Moment Scheme number 5
World Weather Research Programme
Yonsei University
Zonal Differential Reflectivity
104

East African Communitiy, 2011. Enhancing Safety of Navigation and

Transcription

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