Iraq Weekly Security Report

Iraq
Weekly Security Report
March 10, 2015
Security Analysis
March 3 - 9, 2015
Executive Summary
• Government-led forces prepare for full scale assault on Tikrit city, following the capture of the strategic town of
Al Alam on March 9.
• Despite sustained cooperation in the security sphere, no change to the country’s ongoing Baghdad-Erbil budget
standoff has occurred, raising the prospect of an indefinite delay in capital expenditure for Kurdistan Regional
Government (KRG) projects.
• Successes were nevertheless recorded on the western front with the capture of Baghdadi town, as levels of violence remained low across the majority of southern governorates.
National Overview
Allied forces are now understood to
be in preparation for a direct assault
on Tikrit city, following a large scale
retreat of ISIS fighters from towns
and villages protecting main routes.
In total some 20,000 troops, alongside
Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) militias
and Sunni tribesmen have advanced on
the town, closing off routes to the south
and east as Kurdish forces directed their
own counter-offensive against ISIS fighters
near Kirkuk city. At present, fears of large
scale reprisals against Sunni communities
(as alleged in at least one instance during
January’s Diyala campaign) have yet to be
realized, although efforts to clear the city
itself are likely to prove far more bloody
than the fighting so far. Less success was
recorded in negotiations between the
Federal Authorities and the Kurdistan
regional government over the reporting
period, with KRG ministries still essentially
deprived of agreed budget allocations as
a consequence of delay from Baghdad’s
finance ministry, adding further pressure
to energy sector firms awaiting payment.
DAHUK
NINEVEH
ERBIL
KIRKUK
SULAIMANIYA
SALAHUDDIN
DIYALA
BAGHDAD
ANBAR
KARBALA BABIL
WASIT
QADISIYA
Over 20 Incidents
NAJAF
MAYSAN
DHI QAR
Over 10 Incidents
Over Five Incidents
BASRA
MUTHANNA
At Least One Incident
No Incidents
Reported Violent Incidents March 3 - 9, 2015
Security Analysis
March 3 - 9, 2015
Northern Region
Tikrit offensive brings surge
in air strikes, rocket fire and
damage to oil fields across central Salahuddin, as Peshmerga
launch dual operation to reclaim
ISIS-held villages around Kirkuk. While the combined ground forces still remain beyond Tikrit city,
fresh momentum was indicated on March 9 when
Shia militias and Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) reserves
entered the Al Alam suburb on the eastern bank of
the Tigris. Hundreds of rockets are believed to have
been fired into militant-held areas of the city over the
course of the operation with heavy casualties and
loss of territory at the village level provoking sabotage against critical infrastructure such as bridges
and energy facilities by retreating fighters. On March
5, ISIS fighters who were surrounded in the Ajil
area are understood to have set fire to local wells, a
tactic which was repeated during a brief raid on the
KRG-held Makhmour district in the days following
the attack. Unable to retreat, remaining ISIS fighters
are expected to put up a heavy resistance to further
incursions in into the city, which will slow the pace of
the ISF advance over the coming week.
Central Region
ISF recapture Baghdadi, press
ISIS on Fallujah front line. Insurgent supply channels and urban
strongholds continued to see heavy
targeting by coalition air support
over the reporting period, with over ten missile
strikes in Al Qaim, Haditha, Hit and Fallujah districts
recorded in support of ISF ground operations. In a
change from previous weeks, Fallujah has re-emerged
as a battleground for the Iraqi army’s reformed
armored divisions, although at present the operations
are understood to be primarily concerned with nullifying the missile threat to northern districts of the
capital, rather than aggressively recapturing territory
as witnessed around Samarra and Tikrit. On March 4,
an ISIS missile facility was destroyed by heavy shelling from the ISF which was followed over the next
three days by concerted ground offensives in and
around Karma (approximately 12 kilometers west
of Abu Ghraib.) While national facilities, including
Baghdad International Airport (BIAP) remain secure
there is little doubt that such sweeps have yet to
effectively end the threat from stray rockets in the
Shula and Doura areas of Baghdad, with attacks
likely to persist in the absence of a meaningful
extension of ISF presence in villages currently held
by militant fighters. An example of how such an
operation could work was exhibited in Baghdadi,
the contested sub-district south of Haditha, which
on March 6 witnessed combined ISF and Sunni tribal
units successfully expel militants from the district
center after months of heavy fighting.
Southern Region
Tribal conflict stirs small scale
clashes in southern governorates
amid limited activity by insurgent or militia groups. In one
such confrontation in the Ghammas
area of Diwaniyah, three civilians are understood to
have died on March 6 when a verbal dispute escalated into an open gunfight. Typically such clashes
are not followed by immediate reprisals or outbreaks
of major unrest, although grievances can in many
cases form the stems of future conflict. An IED
attack was also recorded against the home of a government employee in the Ibla area of Basra city on
March 3, causing some material damage, although
unlike similar strikes in Babil and southern Baghdad,
local feuds, rather than insurgent involvement is
understood to have been the principal motivation.
Support for the ISF and the militia-backed offensive
in central Iraq remains strong across the majority of
southern provinces, with many communities celebrating the involvement of local volunteers and
militia recruits in demonstrations over the reporting
period.
Key Security Events
March 3 - 9, 2015
Nineveh, March 4:
Peshmerga fighters supported by coalition air strikes
attacked ISIS positions in Sinjar district, killing 20 ISIS members and destroying a number of vehicles.
Dahuk
Rabia
Sinjar Tal Afar
Mosul
Erbil
ERBIL
NINEVEHBadkdida
Sulaymaniyah
Kirkuk
Anbar, March 6:
ISF and tribal forces drove ISIS fighters from Baghdadi
town, retaking the police station along with three bridges across the Euphrates. Pentagon sources confirmed
that 26 air strikes had been executed in support of the
ISF operation.
Nineveh, March 4:
Open sources reported that an armed
confrontation occurred between foreign
national ISIS fighters and militants from the
Al Jibour tribe after the tribal Sheikh was
detained in the Qayyara area. No casualties
were reported.
DAHUK
SULAIMANIYA
Hawija
KIRKUK
Baiji
Tikrit
Salahuddin, March 7:
A car bomb detonated next to a busy café
close to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan
Headquarters in Tuz Khurmatu, killing six
people and wounding 35 others.
Tuz Khurma
Sulaiman Beg
SALAHUDDIN Jalawla
Al Qairm
Samarra
Haditha
Khalis
Muqdadiyah
DIYALA
Baqubah
Hit
Taji
Ramadi
Rutba
Khanaqin
Sadia
Baghdad
BAGHDAD
Fallujah
Abu Ghraib
ANBAR
Hillah
KARBALA
Karbala BABIL
Kut
WASIT
Al Amarah
Najaf Ad
QADISIYA
Diwaniyah
NAJAF
LEGEND
MAYSAN
Nasiriyah
DHI QAR
Basra
KRG Territory
ISIS Held City
Kurdish Held City
Disputed City
ISF Held City
Peshmerga
Controlled Areas
Anbar, March 7:
MUTHANNA
A convoy of 15 insurgent vehicles attempted
to lead
an attack on the Arkiban-Jordan border entry point but
were intercepted by Iraqi border guards 150 meters from
the target. All vehicles were subsequently repelled by IBP.
BASRA
Qadisiya, March 6:
A tribal dispute between two tribes in
the Ghammas sub-district of Diwaniyah developed into armed clashes,
resulting in the death of three civilians.
News Summary
March 3 - 9, 2015
Politics and Security
• Iraqi Provinces Take Ex-Baathists to Court – Al
Monitor. Iraq’s de-Baathification crisis resurfaced
February 2, when the Cabinet approved amendments
to the Justice and Accountability Act, which deals
with the country’s ex-Baathists and the banning of
the Baath Party. The political agreement that established Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s government
also provided for the closure of the Baath Party issue,
referring it to the judiciary. Now, individuals who
would like to sue the former ruling party have the
right to do so, yet their lawsuits must target individual members who have committed crimes, not the
entire dissolved party. Full Article
Iraqi Troops, Militia Make
Advances Near Tikrit
Iraqi security forces and Shi’ite militia fighting the
Islamic State took control of the center of a town on
the southern outskirts of Saddam Hussein’s home city
Tikrit on Sunday, security officials said. Sending in
more troops and fighting fierce clashes, the army and
militiamen were still struggling to drive out Islamic
State militants entrenched in buildings in the western
section of the town of al-Dour, officials said.
• ISIS: Iraq Calls for US Air Strikes after Hatra
and Nimrud Bulldozing – IBT. Iraq’s tourism and
antiquities minister has called on the US-led military
coalition to bomb Islamic State (ISIS) positions in the
country in order to protect ancient treasures from
further looting and destruction. Adel Shirshab said
that only air strikes can stop ISIS from leveling Iraq’s
cultural and historical heritage to the ground. “The
sky is not in the hands of the Iraqis, the sky is not in
our hands. Therefore, the international community
must move with the means it has,” the minister told
journalists in Baghdad. “We request aerial support.”
Full Article
• Pentagon: ISIS Pushed Out of Al Baghdadi –
The Hill. The Pentagon announced Friday that the
Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has been pushed
out of Al Baghdadi, a town in western Iraq just five
miles from an air base where hundreds of Marines
are stationed. “Iraqi Security Forces and Tribal Fighters from the Anbar region have successfully cleared
Al Baghdadi of [ISIS], retaking both the police station
and three Euphrates River bridges,” said defense officials from the US-led coalition against ISIS. Furthermore, they said, Iraqi forces with coalition support
have pushed ISIS from seven villages northwest of Al
Baghdadi. Full Article
Military commanders said the army and militia,
known as Hashid Shaabi (Popular Mobilization)
units, launched another offensive late on Saturday
to break into the center of al-Dour. By Sunday they
had succeeded in recapturing the central area where
government headquarters are located, but Islamic
State insurgents were still holding positions in the
west. “Daesh snipers are still targeting our troops
from some of the high buildings. We should be
able to take them out with helicopter attacks this
evening,” said Ahmed al-Yasiri, a Hashid Shaabi
leader fighting in al-Dour. Daesh is the Arabic
acronym for Islamic State. Officials said security forces
and Shi’ite militia fighters had also captured about a
third of the village of Albu Ajil south of Tikrit.
Source: Reuters. Full Article
News Summary
March 3 - 9, 2015
Economics and Business
• Basra Autonomy Calls Getting Louder Than Ever.
– Gulf News. The historic canals that earned Basra its
nickname of the Venice of the Middle East are clogged
with trash. In some neighbourhoods, the garbage is
piled so high it blocks streets. Residents say the debris is
just the most visible sign of decades of neglect of Basra
by the government. Now, a growing number of citizens
are pushing for autonomy for this oil-rich southern
province of nearly 3 million people. The local politicians
backing the project envisage a semi-autonomous state
— not an independent nation. But their campaign presents a new challenge for Prime Minister Haider Al Abadi
as he tries to prevent Iraq from splintering in the wake
of Daesh’s gains last summer in the country’s north. Full
Article
• Exxon in Talks With Iraq Over Oil Agreements
– Reuters. Exxon Mobil Corp is in discussions with the
government of Iraq to restructure oil agreements in a
way that would help that country meet its near-term
cash needs, Chief Executive Officer Rex Tillerson told a
news conference on Wednesday. “By and large we are
current in our payments,” Tillerson said, adding that
Iraq had asked the Irving, Texas oil company for the
talks. Any change would have to be beneficial to Exxon,
which is the lead contractor to rehabilitate the giant
West Qurna oilfield, Tillerson said. Full Article
Key Upcoming Dates
March 19
Anniversary of
US Invasion
March 21
Nawruz (Kurdish and
Iranian New Year)
Iraqi Kurds Keeping Their
Side of Baghdad Oil Deal
Iraqi Kurdistan said Monday it is on course to keep
its side of an oil export deal reached with Baghdad
in December, as loadings from the region reached
the highest since the deal was struck. By the end of
February, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)
had supplied almost 97 percent of the crude oil it
agreed to hand over to Iraq’s State Oil Marketing
Organization (SOMO) during that period, according
to a statement from the Kurdish Ministry of Natural
Resources.
Loading data from the Turkish port of Ceyhan on
Monday showed exports from northern Iraq are set
to reach 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) for the first
time since the agreement was struck, from an average of 350,000 bpd over the past week and some
275,000 – 300,000 in January and February. Baghdad cut budget payments to the Kurds in January
2014 as punishment for their attempts to export oil
independently, plunging the autonomous region into
economic crisis and forcing it to seek loans at home
and abroad.
Source: Reuters. Full Article
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