The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria

The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria
Idean Salehyan
University of North Texas
The Caliphate
• Successors to the Prophet Mohammad
• Merging of religious and political
authority
• 632-1924 (1292 years!)
• Ottoman Empire Defeated in WWI
• Mustafa Kemal Ataturk abolishes the
Caliphate on March 3, 1924.
Abdul Mecid II, The Last Caliph
Salafism/Wahhabism
• Movement within Sunni Islam
• Literalist, puritanical.
• Rejects modern approaches to Islam
• Rejects spiritualist “sufi” movements within Islam
• Deems Shiites to be heretics
• Minority within Islam
• About 6% of Egyptian Muslims consider
themselves Salafis
• Not all Salafis espouse violence
Top: Sheikh Hasina, Prime Minister of
Bangladesh. Bottom: Salafi women
Al Qaeda
• Origins in Afghan war against USSR.
• 1979, Soviets invade.
• Afghan resistance organizations (mujahedin) based in
Pakistan, supported by US.
• Foreigners from across Muslim world join the fight.
• Maktab al-Khadamat founded by Osama bin Laden to
fund Afghan war.
• Osama Bin Laden and the 1990 Iraq invasion of
Kuwait.
• Al-Qaeda founded in Sudan
Al Qaeda
• Taliban in Afghanistan
• Hosts OBL and AQ
• Al-Qaeda declares war on US in 1996,
including plans to attack civilians.
• 1998 embassy bombing in Nairobi and
Dar Es-Salaam
• September 11, 2001.
Al Qaeda’s Ultimate Goal
• Remove Authoritarian/Un-Islamic leaders and restore the caliphate:
• “After the fall of our orthodox caliphates on March 3, 1924 and after expelling the
colonialists, our Islamic nation was afflicted with apostate rulers who… turned out to be more
infidel and criminal than the colonialists themselves.” –AQ training manual.
Al-Qaeda and the US
• Near vs. Far Enemy
• Belief that if the US withdraws from the Middle East &
ends support, secular regimes will fall, allowing Islamic
governments to replace them.
Parviz Musharaff (Pakistan)
Hosni Mubarak (Egypt)
King Abdullah II (Jordan)
Al Qaeda
• 2001, US invades Afghanistan
• Al Qaeda faces a major set back
• Osama Bin Laden killed in 2011
• Al-Qaeda franchises in Yemen, Algeria, Somalia, etc.
• 2003, US invades Iraq
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Shiites become dominant in Iraqi politics
Jama’at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad formed in 1999
Becomes Al-Qaeda in Iraq in 2004
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi
Iraq
• “So yes, there are contacts between Iraq and Al Qaeda.
We know that Saddam Hussein has a long history with
terrorism, in general. And there are some Al Qaeda
personnel who found refuge in Baghdad.” –Secretary of
State, Condoleezza Rice, September 25, 2002.
• “[Sadaam Hussein] has long-established ties with AlQaeda.” –US Vice President Dick Cheney, June 14,
2004.
• “We have no credible evidence that Iraq and al
Qaeda cooperated on attacks against the United
States.” -9/11 Commission Report
Iraq
• "Islamic extremists are exploiting the Iraqi conflict to recruit new anti-U.S. jihadists.“ Porter
Goss, CIA Director. February 16, 2005.
• “"the Iraq War has become the 'cause celebre' for jihadists ... and is shaping a new
generation of terrorist leaders and operatives.“ – US National Intelligence Estimate 2006.
Al-Qaeda in Iraq
• AQI targeted US troops and Shiite
institutions.
• Recruited from across the world. Often
the most dogmatic, extreme.
• Initially cooperated with other Sunni
groups, but most rejected their call for a
theocratic state.
• AQI was the most brutal of the opposition
groups
• AQI marginalized, Al-Zarqawi killed
• Sunni “Awakening”.
• Tribal groups and mainstream Sunnis turn on
AQI.
Emergence of ISIS
• US pulls all troops out of Iraq in
December, 2011
• Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki fires
his Sunni Vice-President after US troops
leave.
• Campaign of violence and purges against
Sunnis
• Sunni Awakening groups turn to the
insurgency
Emergence of ISIS
• Syrian revolution
• Spring 2011, public protests calling for democracy,
end to rule of Bashir al-Assad.
• Sunni troops begin to defect to the opposition
• Free Syrian Army and the “moderate” opposition
• Calls for US to arm the opposition rejected by Obama
• Al-Qaeda and the Al-Nusra Front
• Becomes the best funded, best organized insurgent
group
Emergence of ISIS
• AQI members go to Syria to regroup, train,
fight.
• AQI reorganizes under new leader, Abu Bakr alBaghdadi and becomes ISIS in 2013.
• Attempt to merge Al-Nusra with ISIS
• ISIS ends relationship with Al-Qaeda in
February 2014.
• Return to Iraq; support in Sunni areas.
• June 29, 2014, Al-Baghdadi declares himself
Caliph.
• Rejected by most Muslims (including Al-Qaeda)
• Huge symbolic move
Social Media
Foreign Recruits
ISIS Atrocities
ISIS Atrocities
Attacks on Yazidi Minority
Siege of Kobani
Spread of ISIS
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Libya
Egypt
Algeria
Pakistan
Yemen
Nigeria
Chechnya
Philippines
Lebanon
Jordan
ISIS beheading Egyptians in Libya
Boko Haram declares allegiance to ISIS
Sectarian War in the Middle East
Hezbollah
IRAN
Assad
Houthis
Iraq
Combatting ISIS
• Strange bedfellows
• Opponents of ISIS
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Iraqi government
Assad regime
Free Syrian Army
Regional governments
Iran
Hezbollah
Kurdish forces
Options for Dealing with ISIS
• Option #1: Resend troops to Iraq, perhaps Syria
• “No boots on the ground”?
• Option #2: Give increased funding, arms to moderate anti-ISIS groups.
• Free Syrian Army
• Kurdish forces
• Option #3: Join forces with anti-ISIS governments
• Jordan, Egypt, Turkey, already cooperating
• Befriend Syria, Iran?
• Option #4: Complete disengagement
• Focus on domestic policing