The Used Car Market Report 2014

Transcription

The Used Car
Market Report 2014
A REPORT FOR BCA
Centre for Automotive Management
The University of Buckingham Business School
www.buckingham.ac.uk/cam
Foreword
We are delighted to bring
you this 24th edition of
the BCA Used Car Market
Report.
This year's report looks
at how the country’s
improving economic
prospects have
influenced motorists'
decisions on buying a
used car and the likely
impact of rising new car volumes on the used car market.
Our editor, Emeritus Professor Peter N C Cooke, the Centre for Automotive
Management at The University of Buckingham is a highly-regarded
commentator on the motor industry.
Professor Cooke spent over 20 years in the motor industry and has taught,
researched and written about the sector at business schools for a similar
period. He has undertaken much work on the fleet, used car and LCV sectors
and has edited the BCA Used Car Market Report for several years.
The Buckingham Automotive team has sought to retain the key elements of
this highly-respected report, and has also carried out new analysis on the
changing shape of the used car market.
Given the strong likelihood of a sustained economic recovery, the BCA Used
Car Market Report 2014 also looks at the opportunities for growth in the UK's
new and used vehicle markets.
Jon Olsen
CEO
BCA
2
The Used Car Market – a report by BCA
Contents
Foreword
Introduction
Overview
6
New and used car sales recovery continues
The new car market
The used car market
Consumer perspective
UK Market Review
Used car volumes rise for fifth year
Used:new car ratios
Used car market segments
Dealers’ used car volumes
Private sector used car sales
UK car market value reaches new high
Dealer/private sector used car market value
Used car selling prices
Used car prices at auction
Average age of cars continues to rise
Seventy-nine per cent of cars reach 12 years
The ‘parc turn’ ratio
A more promising outlook?
Consumer Perspective
Part One – What Used Car to Buy?
What used car to consider buying?
Factors driving search for used car
'Crunch factors'
Part Two – Where to Buy From?
Which used car retailer to deal with?
Buying from franchised and non-franchised dealers
Three-quarters of motorists buy a used car
Car ownership slips in 2014
Hatchbacks’ market share drops
Buying a used car rather than a new car?
Sales of used diesels rise
Part Three – Car Owners' Options and Buying Intentions
Buying a car in the next 12 months?
What type of car to buy next?
Where to buy the next car?
Low or 0% interest next time?
Sell your car 'directly for cash'?
Reasons for selling 'for cash'
Part Four – Economic Recovery, Running Costs, and Keeping in Touch
What car to buy during economic recovery?
Effect of technology on motoring
Alternatives to owning a car
11
15
18
20
22
23
26
32
36
Contents
Regional Review
39
'Personal experience' is the most powerful factor
‘Crunch factors’ when deciding on a particular car
Factors influencing choice of used car retailer
When to buy the next car?
Major influences on car search
Selling your car 'for cash'
Buying a new instead of a used car
European Overview
46
New car registrations
Western European markets
New member states
Used car volumes
Car parc
‘Parc turn’ percentage
Used:new volume ratios
Used car sales per 1,000 inhabitants
United Kingdom,
Germany, Italy
France, Spain
Recession, Recovery, Buyers and the Used Car Market
57
Economic change and recovery
Income levels
Automotive industry changes
A Sting in the Tail?
Some initial conclusions
Hard or Soft Landing for Used Car Values
66
New car registrations; historic and forecast
A new replacement paradigm?
Potential impact on used car market?
Transitional or strategic change?
Buyer have become more market savvy
Used LCVs and Economic Recovery
72
Rise in LCV Demand
LCVS and the State of the Economy
UK LCV Parc; Average Age
LCVs at Auction
LCV Finance
Strategic Issues for Used LCV Retailers
BCA – A Connected Marketplace
79
Statistical Data
81
Research
93
Introduction
The BCA Used Car Market Report 2014 aims to provide the same valuable insight
into the latest developments in the UK used car market that each of our previous
reports have done.
The UK Market Review is based on statistical information from national sources. This
is updated and compared with previous years’ data to provide an insight into volume
and value trends in the used car market.
The Consumer Perspective section of the report is based on a TNS-BMRB survey of
UK car owners. This comprises a review of the key issues that influence used car
buyers when deciding which car to buy and where to buy from.
This year, car owners were asked what expectations they have for buying their next
car if the economy continues to recover. They were also asked what alternatives they
might consider to owning a car outright, and how they thought technology might
affect motoring over the next five years.
The European section of the Used Car Market Report contains updated trend
information on Europe’s new and used car markets.
Other sections include 'A Hard or Soft Landing for Used Car Prices’ looking at the
likely impact of the fast-growing new car market and new car finance sector on used
car values, highlighting some caveats as the economy moves forward – and the effect
of the ‘Recession and Recovery on Used Car Buyers and the Used Car Market’.
The report also looks briefly at the used LCV market and the main factors driving this
key automotive sector.
BCA is pleased to provide its Used Car Market Report 2014 to all those who have an
interest in the UK and European automotive industry.
Overview
New and used car sales recovery continues
Strong new car sales and higher used car volumes pushed combined UK car sales up
to the pre-recession level of 9.7 million in 2013.
Market volumes new vs. used; 2004 – 2013
11
10
9.4
9.7
9.7
8.6
8.3
8
Millions
9.1
8.8
9
7
9.7
9.5
7.3
7.4
6.8
7.1
8.6
7.4
7.1
6.7
6.6
6.7
2.0
1.9
2.0
2011
2012
6.3
6
5
4
3
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.1
2.0
2008
2009
2.3
2
1
2004
2005
2006
2007
New
Used
2010
2013
Total
Source: SMMT/TNS-BMRB
While new car sales staged a welcome recovery to 2.26 million units in 2013, they
remained some way short of the record levels seen in the early 2000s.
Falling sales across Europe saw the UK's share of Western Europe's new car market
climb a further 2.2% to 19.6% in 2013, consolidating its second place in the
European new car sales league – outstripping third-placed France by 474,000 units.
Strong private sector sales and recovering fleet sector volumes saw UK new car
registrations rise 10.8% and 220,000 units to 2.26 million last year.
Used car volumes, which fell to 6.3 million units during recession, continued their
recovery rising to 7.4 million units in 2013, equalling 2006’s figure.
6
Overview
The new car market
The new car market value climbed to a record high of £36.7 billion in 2013 as selling
prices increased and new car volumes reached a six-year high of 2.26 million.
Following several years over the £30 billion mark, UK new car market value fell
steeply to £28 billion in 2008, settling around that level before recovering strongly in
2012 and 2013.
New car market volume and value; 2004 – 2013
2.6
2.6
2.6
40
2.4
2.4
2.4
36.7
2.3
2.2
2.3
33.5
32.4
32.2 32.4
2.1
33.0
2.0
2.0
0.1
1.9
28.7
29.0
0.3
1.8
28.1
1.6
32.3
30
£ billion
Millions
35
28.0
1.4
25
1.7
1.9
1.2
1.0
20
2003
2004
2005 2006
Volume
2007
2008 2009
Value
2010
2011 2012
2013
Scrappage deals
Source: SMMT//TNS-BMRB
UK new car registrations, which peaked close to the 2.6 million mark in 2003 and
2004, fell during recession and economic downturn to a low of 1.94 million units in
2011, with little recovery the following year.
The improving economy and attractive finance offers saw new car volumes rise
10.8% and 220,000 units to 2.26 million in 2013 as private sector sales climbed
15.6% over the previous year. New cars sales to the 25-plus fleet sector rose 5.7%
to 1.08 million, its share of the market dropping from 50.2% to 47.9% year on year.
As the UK economy shows clear signs of sustained recovery, new car volumes
continue to grow strongly – up 10.6% to 1.29 million units for the first six months of
2014, the best half-year total since 2005.
The 2014 new car market has, so far, risen faster than the SMMT originally
anticipated and is expected to stabilise in the second half of the year. The SMMT’s
latest forecasts see new car registrations rising 8.1% to 2.45 million in 2014 and by a
further 0.9% to 2.47 million units in 2015.
7
Overview
The used car market
UK used car volumes dropped from 7.4 million in 2006 to 6.3 million units three years
later, as recession and prolonged financial pressures curtailed motorists’ spending.
Used car sales have since recovered the lost ground, returning to the 7.4 million mark
once more in 2013.
Continued steady growth saw the used car market value climb by £4.6 billion to a alltime high of £42.7 billion last year.
Used car market volume and value; 2004 – 2013
8
45
7.3
42.7
7.4
7.4
7.1
7.1
6.8
6.7
33.9
32.3
33.3
6.7
6.6
6.3
32.4
34.2
6
35.0
40
38.1
35
35.7
30.0
30
£ billion
Millions
7
5
25
4
20
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Volume
2010
2011
2012
2013
Value
Source: TNS-BMRB
Stronger sales of cars in the 0-2 year and the 3-5 year age groups saw overall used
car volumes grow by 285,000 units to 7.4 million in 2013.
Dealers’ and private sector used car sales both rose in 2013 – the former by 5.1% to
4.28 million and the latter’s by 3.1% to 2.81 million units.
•
Sales of cars in the 0-2 year age group rose by 7.1% and 54,000 units to
816,000 in 2013 – this sector’s share of the market edging up from 10.7% to
11% year on year.
•
Sales of 3-5 year-old cars also increased last year, by 115,000 (6.3%) to 1.94
million, their market share up to 26.3%.
•
Sales of cars in the 6-8 year-old age group slipped by 0.4% and 9,000 units to
1.98 million in 2013, dropping 1.2% to 26.8% share of the market.
•
9 years-plus used car sales rose 4.9% and 125,000 to 2.66 million units, the
segment’s share of the market up to 35.9% from 35.6% the previous year.
8
Overview
Consumer perspective
Twenty-six per cent of respondents to this year’s survey had bought a new or used
car during the past two years, similar to last year – three quarters of them opting for a
used instead of a new vehicle. This time, more men (30%) had bought a car than
women (23%) – 75% of the former and 74% of the latter opting for a used rather than
a new car.
•
Nearly three out of 10 respondents cited ‘personal experience of make/model’ as
the most powerful influence when considering what used car to buy next, ahead
of views of ‘friends and family’ mentioned by a quarter of motorists. Taking a
'test drive' and ‘Internet shopping/consumer sites’ share third spot in this regard,
while ‘classified used car websites’, ‘used car showrooms/sites’ and ‘consumer
reports’ can also influence used car buyers when deliberating what type of car
they might buy.
•
When asked what most influences the way they go about their search for a used
car, three out of five of this year’s survey respondents said they were driven most
by ‘price range, two out of five took note of ‘brand’, while a third of motorists
were influenced by ‘model range’.
•
‘Price remains top of three out of five motorists’ shopping criteria when making
up their mind which particular used car to buy, followed by ‘make and model of
vehicle’ cited by 36% of this year’s survey respondents.
•
The ‘right car at the right price’ edged up two points to 39% this year, when
deciding which particular used car retailer deal with. A quarter of car owners
expect a ‘good deal on the car’, whereas a fifth of motorists look to ‘deal locally’,
‘trade in their car’ and do business with a ‘reliable and trustworthy dealer’.
•
The number of families owning at least one car slipped three percentage points
to 69% in 2014 – a considerable drop from the record figure of 77% seen in
2010’s Used Car Market Report.
•
‘Hatchbacks’ used car market share dropped 5% to 44% in this year’s survey,
while estates’ popularity increased 4% to 12% and saloons’ share rose 2% to
19%, while MPVs share of the market edged up one point to 8%.
•
Five per cent fewer motorists (32%), this year, said they ‘couldn’t afford a new
car’ was the over-riding reason they bought a used car last time, 22% think they
‘offer better value for money’, and 15% of car owners believe there is ‘lower
depreciation with used cars’.
•
Diesel-engined used cars’ market share edged up 1% to 37% in the 2014
consumer research, as higher numbers of used fleet diesels reach the
marketplace.
9
Overview
•
The number of car owners saying they would ‘certainly’ or ‘quite likely’ buy a car
in the next 12 months was flat at 14% in this year’s survey – albeit 4% higher
than two years earlier. Those motorists, who said there was a ‘50:50 chance’ of
them buying a car in the next 12 months, slipped 2% to 8%.
•
Three-quarters of car owners plan to buy a used car when they next make a
change – 40% of them planning to buy a used diesel – 3% up on last year and
10% higher than two years earlier.
•
The number of car owners looking to buy from a ‘franchised dealer’ rose one
point to 49% this year, 46% of them hoping to trade in their current vehicle.
Three out of 10 prospective used car buyers intend to deal ‘privately’ or with a
‘family member or friend’, 16% from an ‘independent used car retailer’ and 9%
from an Internet trader’.
•
Twelve per cent of car owners said they would ‘certainly’ think about buying a
new car instead of a used one next time they change if a low or 0% interest loan
is on offer at the time.
•
Men (51%) are more likely than women (42%) to consider selling their car ‘directly
for cash’, which also appeals to 59% of motorists in the 25-34 year age group
and 54% of 35-44 year olds. Three out of five car owners felt this ‘would achieve
a better price than trading in their car’, while 37% were sure this would allow
them ‘to negotiate a better deal on a new or used vehicle’.
•
This year, more in line with pre-recession levels, nearly a fifth of survey
respondents were of a mind to buy the ‘same type of car’ next time, compared
with just 10% who expressed this view last year.
•
Around half of car owners felt technology will make ‘cars more fuel efficient with
better fuel consumption’ and ‘electric cars will become more commonplace’. A
third believe ‘safety will improve because of automatic braking systems and other
driving aids’.
•
When asked if ‘they might consider any alternatives to owning a car’, three out of
five motorists said they would not consider such a move, a view expressed more
strongly by women (65%) than men (55%).
10
UK Market Review
Used car volumes rise for fifth year
Lower inflation, higher
Car volume trends; 2009 – 2013
employment, rising house
8
prices and improving
economic prospects helped
to build new and used car
6
volumes in 2013.
5
6.7
6.6
6.3
Millions
New car sales rose 10.8%
7.4
7.1
7
4
3
to 2.26 million last year,
2.0
2
private sector volumes
2.0
2.0
2.3
2.0
1
rising steeply for a second
0
year running, by 15.6% to
2009
2010
2011
an eight-year high of 1.07
New
2012
2013
Used
million units.
Used car market volumes also increased by 4% to 7.4 million units in 2013, to a level
last seen in 2006.
Used:new car ratios
Used:new car ratios; 2009 – 2013
The ratio of used car sales to new car sales
2009
3.2:1
slipped to 3.3:1 in 2013, as the marked rise of
2010
3.3:1
10.8% in new car sales to 2.26 million units
2011
3.4:1
outpaced the lower growth of 4% in used car
2012
3.5:1
volumes.
2013
3.3:1
SMMT/TNS-BMRB
Used car market segments
Higher sales of cars in the
Volume of used car sales by source; 2009 – 2013
0-2 year and the 3-5 year
8.0
car volumes grow by
7.0
285,000 units to 7.4 million
6.0
last year.
Dealers’ and
private-to-private
used car sales both
rose in 2013
Dealers’ and private-toprivate used car sales both
rose in 2013 – dealers’ by
5.1% to 4.28 million and the
private sector’s volumes by
3.1% to 2.81 million units.
Millions
age groups saw overall used
7.4
7.1
6.7
6.6
6.3
5.0
4.3
4.1
4.0
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.0
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.0
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.0
2009
2010
Other/Auction
2011
Private
Dealers
2012
2013
Total
Source: TNS-BMRB
11
UK Market Review
Looking at sales in the key age groups shows how used car market volumes changed
in 2013;
•
Sales of cars in the 0-2 year age group rose by 7.1% and 54,000 units to
816,000 last year– this sector’s share of the market edging up from 10.7% to
11% year on year.
•
Sales of 3-5 year-old cars also increased in 2013, by 115,000 (6.3%) to 1.94
million, their market share rising 0.6% to 26.3%.
Used car market volumes by age of car; 2009 – 2013
)%%%
#()&
#(#*
#(%%
#)(#
!"#$%&'(%
#$!&
#%%%
$''&
$**)
$'&%
$!*)
$""*
$(%%
$%%%
#"(*
$')%
$!#(
$&'$
!"#
!$%
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$*&&
!"#
'$"
#%$#
#%$)
(%%
#%%*
#%$%
%+#
#%$$
)+(
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*,-./0
Source: TNS-BMRB
•
Sales of cars in the 6-8 year-old segment slipped by 0.4% and 9,000 units to
1.98 million in 2013, dropping 1.2% to 26.8% share of the market. Total volumes
in this age group are declining as a result of lower new car sales between 2009
and 2011 – the number of units in this age sector of the parc has dropped one
million in the past five years.
•
9 years-plus used car sales rose 4.9% and 125,000 to 2.66 million units, the
segment’s share of the market up to 35.9% from 35.6% the previous year.
Dealers’ used car volumes
Retailers outpace
market growth for
second year
running
Higher sales of cars in the 0-2 year and 3-5 year age groups helped used car retailers
outpace market growth for the second year running, their volumes up 5.1% and
209,000 units to 4.28 million, their market share rising 0.6% to a record 57.8% (see
overleaf).
•
Dealers’ sales of 0-2 year-old cars climbed 12.1% (76,000) to 685,000 units
pushing their share of the segment up 1.2% to 84% last year.
12
UK Market Review
Dealers’ used car volumes and market share; 2009 – 2013
5.0
60
57.2
56.3
4.5
56.0
55.8
55.9
54.8
53.3
4.0
4.01
4.07
3.97
55
3.87
3.66
3.61
3.67
3.74
3.53
3.5
50
3.0
% Market share
Millions
4.28
54.3
53.6
57.8
45
2.5
2.0
40
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Millions
2010
2011
2012
2013
Market share
Source: TNS-BMRB
•
Dealers' sales in the 3-5 year age group rose by 7.6% (111,000 units) to 1.58
million, their share of the market rising one point to 81.3% – a reflection of a
higher number of part-exchanges retailed from the rise of 145,000 private sector
new car volumes in 2013 and disposals reaching the market from sales of 75,000
additional fleet and business new cars last year.
•
Retailers’ sales of 6-8 year-old cars grew 1.5% to 1.27 million units in 2013, the
segment’s market share rising 0.8% to 36.9%.
Dealers’ used car volume by age of car; 2009 – 2013
1800
1581
1600
1400
1470
1358
1325
1302
1250
Thousands
1200
1269
1126
1034
1063
1000
800
741
745
611
543
600
400
755
759
663
535
685
473
200
0
2009
2010
0-2
2011
3-5
2012
6-8
2013
9+yrs
Source: TNS-BMRB
13
UK Market Review
Dealers' volumes in the 9 years-plus used car segment were relatively flat at
•
745,00 in 2013, their market share slipping to 28% from 29.2% a year earlier.
Used car retailers
reinforced their hold
on the 0-5 year age
group in 2013
Used car retailers reinforced
Volume share of dealers’ used car sales, by age of car 2013
their hold on the 0-5 year
age group in 2013, their
3-5 years
37%
0-2 years
16%
volumes in this segment up
9% and 186,000 units to
2.27 million – representing
over half (53%) of their used
car business last year.
9+years
17%
Dealers’ sales of 6-8 yearold cars have increased
dramatically in recent years,
reaching a peak of 1.27
6-8 years
30%
million in 2013 – a rise of
Source: TNS-BMRB
over half a million units over
the past 10 years, accounting for three out of 10 dealers’ used car sales last year.
Private sector used car sales
Private-to-private used car volumes rose 3.1% and 84,000 units to 2.81 million in
2013, a little short of market pace, slipping 0.3% to 38% of the used car market.
Private-to-private used car volumes by age of car; 2009 – 2013
2000
1843
1775
1774
1800
1644
1600
1506
Thousands
1400
1200
1000
800
600
573
513
554
442
400
200
348
281
302
278
281
47
93
60
101
111
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
317
0
0-2
3-5
6-8
9+yrs
Source: TNS-BMRB
•
Private sector sales of 0-2 year-old cars increased by 9.8% to 111,000 units last
year, accounting for 13.6% of this used car segment.
14
UK Market Review
•
Private-to-private sales in the 3-5 year age group also grew last year, up 7.6%
and 21,000 units to 302,000, their share of the sector flat at 15.5%.
•
Private sector sales of 6-8 year old cars, dropped 3.2% to 550,000 units in 2013,
their share of this segment 1.3 points lower at 19.7%, as dealers continue to
make inroads in the market for older cars.
•
Private-to-private sales in the 9 years-plus segment were 3.9% higher at 1.84
million last year, accounting for 69.3% of this used car age group.
UK car market value reaches new high
The total value of
the UK’s new and
used car markets
rose to a new high
in 2013
The total value of the UK's new and
New and used car market values; 2009 – 2013
used car markets rose £9 billion to a
new high of £79.4 billion in 2013 –
some 20% higher than 2007's prerecession value of £66.3 billion.
The value of the new car market
rose £4.4 billion last year, a product
of 226,000 extra new car sales and
a rise in new car selling prices.
£ billions
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
New
28.0
28.7
29.0
32.3
36.7
Used
34.2
35.0
35.7
38.1
42.7
Total
62.2
63.7
64.7
70.4
79.4
Used % *
55.0
54.9
55.2
54.1
53.8
* as % of total market value
A rise of 285,000 in used car
Source: TNS-BMRB
volumes coupled with a marked
increase in selling prices saw the used car market value grow £4.6 billion to a record
£42.7 billion in 2013 – £6 billion higher than the value of the new car market.
Dealer/private sector
used car market value
Value of used car sales by source; 2009 – 2013
#&
Dealers' used car market
+(
209,000 units, average
$&
selling prices rose
$(
substantially and retailers
&
sold greater numbers of
(
higher-value, younger used
cars.
!+"*
+*"!
+)"*
+)"&
+&"+
+&
!&"%
!&"(
!#"+
!(
!"#$%%$&'(
2013; as sales increased by
!*"$
!&
value increased by £4.5
billion to £32.8 billion in
#+"%
#(
!"#
$"%
+(('
+($(
)"'
!"(
$"'
$"&
Other Auction
%"'
%"#
)"*
&")
+($$
Private
+($+
Dealer
+($!
Total
Source: TNS-BMRB
15
UK Market Review
Franchised and non-franchised used car retailers’ share of the used car market value
rose 2.4% to 76.8% last year, close to 2007’s pre-recession figure. The private
sector's share of market value dropped to 16.2% in 2013, as the sector’s average
selling prices fell and its market share slipped for the second year. The balance
represents sales through other sources and auctions etc.
Share of used car market value; 2004 – 2013
%
90
80
76.3
75.3
75.5
18.2
17.8
17.6
2004
2005
2006
77.0
74.0
73.7
75.6
75.1
74.4
19.3
20.7
20.7
2010
2011
76.8
70
60
50
40
30
20
21.6
17.7
16.4
16.2
10
0
2007
2008
2009
Franchised/non-franchised
2012
2013
Private to private
Source: TNS-BMRB
Used car selling prices
Overall average
used car selling
prices rose to
£5,764
Overall average used car selling prices rose to £5,764 in 2013 from £5,352 the
previous year. Dealers’ average used car selling prices went up from £6,972 last year
to £7,660 in 2013, as used car retailers increased their share of the younger age
groups and used car values increased across the supply chain. The private sector
saw its average used car price fall from £2,896 to £2,465 year on year.
The chart overleaf shows the relationship between used car retailers’ used car selling
prices and the Retail Price Index (RPI) over the past 25 years. While the two indices
have followed a similar trend for much of this period, dealers' selling prices tend to
fall behind the RPI for some considerable amount of time following recession and a
period of economic downturn.
The gap between dealers’ used car selling prices’ and the RPI trend was wider during
the most recent economic crisis than previous occasions, because the 2008/2009
recession was the deepest and longest for the past 100 years, inflicting severe and
lasting financial pressures on car buyers.
16
UK Market Review
Retail Price growth slowed significantly in 2013 which has continued this year,
allowing stronger used car selling prices to narrow the gap of the two indices which is
likely to carry on in 2014.
Average dealers' used car selling prices; 1988 - 2013
240
234
227
230
220
218
220
209
210
207
201 203
200
193
190
180
170
160
150
140
130 132
RPI
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
104
1992
1989
1988
1990
101
100
139
121 121
117
108
110
1991
120
133
121
118
198
186
178 180
174
178 184
178
167
175
165 163
170
162 158
165
162
159
148
155
143
152
139
147
135
125
130
204
200
185
Dealers' used car selling price
Source: ONS/BCA Used Car Market Report
Used car prices at auction
Average fleet and lease used car auction prices tumbled during recession to £5,471
at the end of 2008, rising steeply in 2009 eventually reaching £9,448 in June 2014 –
a rise of £3,977 (42%) over the five and a half year period.
Average fleet/lease used car prices at auction; 2008 – 2014
£10,000
£9,500
£9,448
£9,000
£8,500
£8,526
£8,000
£7,500
£7,435
£7,259
£7,000
£7,235
£6,726
£6,500
£6,000
£5,500
£5,471
£5,000
Apl
Jan-14
Oct
July
Apl
Jan-13
Oct
July
Apl
Jan-12
Oct
July
Apl
Jan-11
Oct
July
Apl
Jan-10
Oct
July
Apl
Jan-09
Oct
July
Apl
Jan-08
£4,500
Source: BCA
17
UK Market Review
Average fleet and lease used car values have been rising largely as a result of an
imbalance in supply and demand. As the economy improves, there is a greater
demand from motorists to change their existing vehicle, yet supplies of good, retail
quality cars in the wholesale sector are invariably limited – a legacy of prolonged
lower new car sales following the onset of the recession.
This has resulted in some significant rises in average value across the used car
market. Cars from fleet and lease sources have seen average values at auction
increase significantly, rising by £1,663 or 21.1% over the past 24 months.
Average mileage and age has increased slightly, while average performance against
Manufacturer Recommended Price (MRP) is up nearly a point year on year, and over
three points higher than 2012.
Average age of cars continues to rise
The number of cars in the UK car parc, which had been flat for the past eight years or
so during the period of weak new car sales, edged up 400,000 units in 2013 as new
car registrations rose and owners continued to run their cars a little longer. The parc
is likely to grow higher in 2014 and 2015 as the new car market continues to recover.
UK car parc – average age of car; 2000 – 2015
35.0
7.59
7.70
7.79
7.95
7.44
30.0
6.88
7.06
6.93
6.78
7.00
6.79
6.69 6.70 6.73
6.50
20.0
Average age
Millions
7.50
7.25
7.11 7.01
25.0
8.00
6.00
15.0
5.50
27.2 27.8 28.5 29.0 29.4 29.8 29.9 30.2 30.3 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.9 31.1 31.4
10.0
5.00
Millions
Average age
Source: SMMT/Buckingham
The average age of
cars on UK roads
climbed to a new
high of 7.7 years
The average age of cars on UK roads dropped to 6.69 years in 2004 as new car
volumes settled at record levels in the early 2000s. It climbed steadily, thereafter, to a
high of 7.7 years in 2013 as new car volumes dropped steeply during recession. The
average age of cars will continue to rise until new car volumes approach 2.5 million
for several years and the bulge of cars from the 2000 to 2005 period are scrapped.
18
UK Market Review
Seventy-nine per cent of cars reach 12 years
The number of cars
reaching their 12th
birthday continues
to rise
UK car parc survival rate; 2013 vs. 2004
The number of
cars reaching their
100
12th birthday
continues to rise,
90
41.6% now make it
to the 15-year
mark – a reflection
of improving
Survival rate %
to 78.8% – while
manufacturing
quality, the
squeeze on
earnings and rising
80
70
60
50
2013
2004
40
30
1
costs forcing car
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Years
owners to run their
Source: SMMT
vehicles a little
longer.
Some 340,000 cars were scrapped at the 15-year point in 2013, 2.3 million of this
age group remaining on the roads, representing 7.5% of the country’s car parc.
The ‘parc turn’ ratio
The ‘parc turn’
Car parc turn; 2004 – 2013
ratio, which
%
expresses annual
35
new and used car
30
volumes as a
percentage of the
25
20
valuable way of
15
monitoring car
10
The overall parc
turn rose for the
second year in
32.5
32.5
31.4
31.5
30.0
29.0
27.6
23.1
24.5
8.8
8.0
28.4
28.3
21.8
22.0
24.8
23.5
22.1
20.9
UK car parc, is a
sales trends.
32.0
7.9
7.7
23.4
24.0
6.9
6.6
6.6
6.3
6.6
7.4
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
5
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
Used % parc
New % parc
Total
2013, by 1.4% to
31.4, reflecting stronger new and used car volumes, despite a rising car parc of 30.9
million units.
The new car parc turn increased 0.8% to 7.4% in 2013, thanks to a rise of 10.8%
and 220,000 increase in new car registrations to 2.26 million units.
19
UK Market Review
Dealer vs. private sector used car parc turn; 2004 – 2013
The used car parc
turn also registered
%
a notable
15.0
13.9
13.7
improvement last
13.1
13.5
13.2
12.5
year, up 0.6% to
12.5
11.6
24%, reflecting a
4% and 285,000
12.2
12.1
11.9
10.1
9.7
9.6
10.0
8.9
unit growth in used
8.9
8.9
9.1
2012
2013
8.6
8.1
car sales.
7.3
7.5
Franchised and
non-franchised
5.0
2004
retailers' used car
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Dealer % of parc
parc turn continued
2010
2011
Private % of parc
to rise, 0.4% higher
at 13.9% in 2013,
while the private-to-private sector’s ratio was up 0.2% to 9.1% last year.
A more promising outlook?
UK new car sales; 2000 – 2015
The BCA Used Car
Market Report has
been tracking the
2.6
impact of the
2.4
changing shape of
2.2
impact on the
2.45
2.40
2.47
2.34
2.26
2.13
1.99
2.04
2.03
0.11
1.94
0.28
1.6
1.4
cars in the various
1.2
With a strong
2.44
1.8
supply of used
age groups.
2.57
2.0
Millions of cars
years and its direct
2.58
2.22
the country’s car
parc for several
2.56
2.46
1.71
1.92
1.0
New car sales
Scrappage deals
New car sales forecast
recovery of new
car volumes in
2013 and 2014, and the SMMT currently predicting 2.45 million new car registrations
What can these
more encouraging
signs offer the used
car market?
for the full year – what can these more encouraging signs offer the used car market?
Younger cars to become more plentiful
The used car market has suffered from a shortage of first-time used cars entering the
market for several years, which has also affected the 3-5 year age sector where some
cars are changing hands for the second time. The 0-2 year and 3-5 year age groups
are a ‘life blood’ for used car retailers; accounting for over half of their used car
volumes in 2013.
20
UK Market Review
UK car parc by age segments; 2000 – 2015
50
47.8
46.5
44.3 44.3
45
42.3
41.3
40.1
Percentage share of car parc
47.2
43.2
42.2
40
46.6
44.6
39.9
39.8
38.7
38.3
37.6
37.1
36.7 36.837.0 37.3
38.3
35.6
35
33.4
31.7
30
28.1
27.4
26.5
25
25.7
22.8 22.8
23.6
24.6
24.3
24.8
25.0
22.0
21.0
19.6
20
20.3
21.6
22.0
21.1
18.8
17.7
23.0 23.1 23.1
19.5 19.9 20.3
18.4
19.0
15
15.7
15.0
13.5
15.4 15.4 15.9
16.4
16.3 16.3
17.1
25.4 25.3
23.7
21.0 21.3 21.5
22.3
24.2
24.1
23.4 23.1 22.7 23.3
22.4
24.3
21.8
20.6
21.6
20.4
19.0
17.9 17.8
17.2
16.4
14.0
15.5 15.2
14.5
19.9
18.6
19.1
18.7
18.2
14.815.1
13.2 12.8 12.6
12.6
13.5
10
0-2
3-5
6-8
9+
The chart shows how the age mix of the car parc (used car stock) is beginning to
change in favour of the younger age groups of cars, which will ultimately boost the
fortunes of used car retailers – and franchised dealers in particular.
•
The good news is the stock of 0-2 year-old cars has turned the corner, thanks to
much higher new car registrations over the past 18 months and expectations for
new car volumes in the next couple of years. The number of cars in the 0-2 yearold parc hit a low of 3.8 million in 2011, 1.4 million units fewer than the peak of
5.2 million in 2003 – recovering to 4.2 million in 2013 and on course to reach 4.8
million units in 2015.
•
A similar pattern exists for the 3-5 year age bracket. The number of cars in this
segment of the parc dropped 1.4 million units over five years to sit at 5.6 million
in 2013, but will rise again to around 6.1 million units by 2015 as higher new car
volumes begin to feed through to this age group.
The 6-8 year-old car
parc is yet to feel
the full force of the
steep drop in new
car sales
•
The 6-8 year-old car parc is yet to feel the full force of the steep drop and five
years of low new car sales triggered by the 2008 recession. The volume of cars
in this area of the car parc fell by one million units between 2008 and 2013 and
will drop a further 500,000 over the next couple of years to 5.9 million units –
causing supply difficulties for retailers who rely on this used car market sector for
a significant amount of their business.
21
The Consumer Perspective
The Consumer Perspective section of the BCA Used Car Market Report looks at the
pattern of car ownership in the United Kingdom and the key factors that drive
motorists' decision on what used car to buy and where to buy from.
BCA commissioned TNS-BMRB to carry out face-to-face interviews with 4,000 UK
car owners to identify their priorities and experiences in buying and owning a used
car – what persuaded them to buy their latest used car, what influenced their choice
of seller, what type of car they might buy next, where they might buy from and when?
Car owners were also asked if they would consider selling their car directly 'for cash'.
The consumer research also looked at what car buyers’ expectations might be when
buying their next car as the economy continues to improve, and how car owners think
technology will affect motoring during the next five years.
Fieldwork for the TNS-BMRB consumer research took place during early June 2014.
The Consumer Experience section is split into four parts;
What Used Car to Buy? – looks at the sources of information which affect used car
buyers’ decision on what car to consider buying, what factors have the strongest
influence on the way they conduct their search for a suitable vehicle – and the crunch
factors when deciding which specific used car to buy.
What Car to Buy and Where From? – this part of the report considers what issues
car owners take into account when deciding which seller to buy their used car from,
and what influences them most dealing with a franchised or non-franchised used car
retailer. It also looks at the pattern of car ownership across the country, why
motorists buy a used instead of a new car and what the type of used car they bought
last time.
Car Owners' Intentions and Options – focuses on when motorists might replace
their car next, what type of car they are thinking of buying next and where they might
buy from. This section also looks at what might encourage car buyers to opt for a
new car instead a used one next time – and whether car owners might consider
selling their car 'for cash'.
Economy, Ownership Options and Technology – looks at what type of car
motorists might think of buying next as economic recovery continues, if they might
consider some alternative to owning a car outright and the likely impact of technology
on car ownership over the next five years.
22
Part One – What Used Car to Buy?
What used car to consider buying?
Nearly three out of 10 respondents (28%) cited ‘personal experience of make/model’
as the most powerful influence when thinking about what used car to buy next, just
ahead of ‘views of friends and family’ mentioned by 26% of motorists.
Influences on type of used car considered
Personal experience make/model
28
Views family friends
%
26
Testdrive
16
Internet shopping/consumer sites
16
Classified used car websites
11
Used car showrooms/sites
10
Consumer reports
10
Cars on street
9
Motoring magazines
7
Dealer websites
6
Car TV shows
4
Dealer advice
4
Car Manf Advs
4
Facebook/Twitter
4
Source: TNS-BMRB
‘Internet shopping/
consumer sites’
increasing their
influence on buying
process
Taking a 'test drive' and ‘Internet shopping/consumer sites’ (16%) share third spot on
this front, the latter edging up two percentage points in this year’s research.
‘Classified used car websites’ (11%), ‘used car showrooms/sites’ (10%) and
‘consumer reports’ (10%) can also influence used car buyers when considering what
type of car they might buy next.
As in previous years, when deciding what used car to shop for, car buyers are
unlikely to take too much note of ‘car TV shows’, ‘dealer advice’,’ car manufacturers’
adverts’ or ‘social media’ such as Facebook or Twitter.
When considering what type of car to buy, women (28%) rely more heavily on views
of ‘friends and family’ than men (22%), while 17-24 year-olds are twice as likely to be
influenced by ‘Facebook/Twitter’ content than other age groups.
Two out of five motorists in the 45-64 year age sector take ‘personal experience of
make/model’ into account, as do half of owners of used cars costing between
£10,000 and £15,000, 30% of whom also pay attention to ‘cars you see on the
street’. Owners of £20,000-plus cars are much more likely than others to focus on
‘Internet shopping/consumer sites’ (28%), a ‘test drive’ (28%) and ‘used car
showrooms/sites’ at 30%.
23
Factors driving searching for a used car
When asked what most influences the way they go about their search for a used car,
three out of five of this year’s survey respondents said they were motivated most by
‘price range’, while two out of five took note of ‘brand’ in this regard.
While 35% of
Strongest influences on carrying out search for car
motorists were
influenced by ‘model
range’, 21% took
Price range
‘location/distance and
Brand
driving time’ into
account at this early
point in the used car
buying process.
Men pay more
attention to ‘brand’
when searching for
a used car
59
%
41
Model Range
35
Location/distance
21
Men (45%) pay more
attention to ‘brand’
Variant/specification
17
than women (36%)
when starting their
Type of used car seller
11
search for a car,
Source: TNS-BMRB
which is also high up
the list for wealthier motorists, but less of an issue for low-income car owners who
are pre-occupied with ‘price range’.
Although ‘price range’ was the driving force for motorists who had bought cars up to
£15,000, owners of cars over this value are more influenced by ‘brand’ (64%),
‘model’ (52%) and ‘variant’ of vehicle’ cited by 32% of buyers in this group.
'Crunch factors'
‘Price’ (37%) remains top of motorists’ shopping criteria when making up their mind
which particular used car to buy – see overleaf. ‘Make and model of vehicle’ edged
up six points to 36% this year consolidating its second spot, although ‘engine size’,
body type’ and ‘age of vehicle’ are also important in the decision making process.
While men and women are generally on the same page on this crunch decision, the
former tend to be swayed more by ‘body type’ (20%) and ‘specification’ (14%) than
women at 14% and 9% respectfully.
‘Price’, ‘engine size’ and ‘insurance group’ are more important to 17-24 year-old
motorists than others, unlike 55 year-olds and wealthier car owners who have much
less interest in these aspects when deciding which car to purchase.
24
Critical factors in choosing a particular used car
%
40
37
36
35
30
25
25
20
15
10
18
17
17
12
11
11
9
7
5
5
0
Source: TNS-BMRB
Unsurprisingly, ‘price’ remains the crunch factor for owners of cars costing up to
£10,000, but is outstripped by ‘make and model of vehicle’ (52%), ‘low mileage’
(29%) and ‘age of vehicle’ (26%) for buyers of £20,000-plus used cars.
25
Part Two – Where to Buy From?
Which used car retailer to deal with?
The ‘right car at the right price’ edged up two points to 39% in this year’s survey,
extending its lead in the table of factors influencing car buyers when deciding which
particular used car retailer to buy from. A quarter of respondents expect a ‘good deal
on the car’, whereas a fifth of motorists look to ‘deal locally’, ‘trade in their car’ and
do business with a ‘reliable and trustworthy dealer’.
Factors influencing choice of dealer
Right car, price
39
Good deal
%
26
Local
21
Trade-in
19
Reliable, trustworthy
18
Bought before
15
Easy negotiation
14
Friendly,helpful
13
Aftersales
11
Recommended
9
Wide choice
8
Quick delivery
6
Warranty
5
Staff contacted me
3
Low finance
2
Showroom facilities
2
Source; TNS-BMRB
Dealing with a retailer they have ‘bought from before’, with ‘helpful, friendly and
professional staff’ and the reassurance of ‘easy negotiation’ together with ‘lack of
sales pressure’ are also important when buyers make up their mind who to buy their
used car from.
More men than
women look for ‘the
right car at the right
price’
More men (42%), than women (36%), look for ‘the right car at the best possible
price’, as do nearly half of motorists in the 35-54 year age group. Negotiating a ‘good
deal’ is crucial for two out of five younger car owners, but less of concern for
wealthier car owners who are more likely to favour ‘local and convenient’ dealers who
appear ‘reliable and trustworthy’.
The top priority for 60% of car owners, in the £10,000-£15,000 price band, is finding
a dealer with ‘the right car at the best possible price’. Buyers of £20,000-plus used
cars appear to have a wider shopping list – looking for ‘the right car at the right
price’, from a ‘local’, ‘reliable and trustworthy’ seller with a ‘good aftersales service’.
26
Buying from franchised and non-franchised used car dealers
The ‘right car at the right price’ was top of the list for a third of car owners who
bought from a franchised dealer selling the same make of car last time, 20% looking
for a ‘good deal’ and 17% expecting to ‘trade in their current vehicle’. ‘Buying
‘locally’ from a dealer they had ‘bought from before’ and dealing with ‘friendly and
helpful staff’ can also make the difference between striking a deal, or not, for these
car buyers.
Factors influencing choice of dealer
47
20
Got a good deal
30
17
Trade-in
21
16
Local
22
15
Bought before
9
13
Friendly, helpful
22
8
Range of choice
10
8
Lack of pressure
15
7
7
Aftersales
6
Warranty
4
Quick delivery
5
Recommendation
5
Low finance
15
11
Reliable/trustworthy
Showroom facilities
%
34
Right car right price
9
Franchised dealer same make
12
Used car retailer
2
1
1
2
Source: TNS-BMRB
Used car buyers
have even higher
expectations of
non-franchised
used car retailers
Used car buyers have even higher expectations of non-franchised used car retailers.
Nearly half (47%) of their used car customers count on finding the ‘right car at the
right price’, three out of 10 expect to negotiate a ‘good deal’, while a fifth favour
doing business with a ‘reliable and trustworthy’ dealer where they can ‘part
exchange’ their existing car.
Three-quarters of motorists buy a used car
Twenty-six per cent of respondents to this year’s survey had bought a new or used
car during the previous two years, similar to last time – three quarters of them
choosing to buy a used instead of a new vehicle (see overleaf).
On this occasion, more men (30%) had bought a car than women (23%) – 75% of the
former and 74% of the latter opting for a used rather than a new car.
27
Cars bought over past two years – by age group
%
90
83
82
80
75
75
76
74
76
73
70
59
60
50
40
33
30
30
35
29
26
27
23
20
18
16
10
0
All ages
Men
Women
17-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
Age
% bought car in last two years
% of these bought used
Source: TNS-BMRB
Motorists in the 35-44 year (33%) and 45-54 year (35%) age groups were the biggest
buyers of cars over the past couple of years, in contrast to just 16% of 17-24 yearolds and 18% of 65 years-plus car owners.
Older motorists are more likely to buy a new car, 41% choosing new over used,
compared to just 20% of motorists up to the age of 35.
A third of the wealthiest car owners said they had bought a car in the past two years
compared with just 11% of their low-income counterparts – 71% of the former and
79% of the latter group electing to buy a used vehicle.
Car ownership slips in 2014
The number of
families owning at
least one car
slipped three points
to 69% in 2014
The number of families owning at least one car slipped three percentage points to
69% in 2014 – a considerable drop from the record figure of 77% seen in 2010’s
Used Car Market Report (see overleaf). With the exception of 45-54 year–old
respondents, all other age and socio economic groups recorded a fall in their
household car ownership ratio this year.
Over 80% of motorists aged 45-54 have at least one car in their family, 38% of them
with two or more vehicles. In comparison, only 31% of low-income families own a car
at all, just 4% of them in the two or more car bracket.
The number of wealthy households owning a car dropped from 90% in last year’s
consumer research to 83% on this occasion, with two-car plus families in this group
slipping from 47% to 42% year on year.
28
Despite clear signs of
Cars in the household
economic recovery, the
One
44%
country’s car
ownership density
continued to slide in
2014 – households
without a car edging up
3% to 31%, a rise of
8% in just four years.
None
31%
Two-car families
slipped two points to
21% this year, although
Two
21%
Three or more
5%
the number of three or
Source: TNS-BMRB
more car families held
firm at 5%, some way
short, though, of the 8% recorded four years ago.
Hatchbacks’ market share drops
Hatchbacks’ used car
Type of used car bought
market share dropped
Off-road
5%
5% to 44% in this
Estate
12%
year’s survey, while
estates’ popularity
Sports/Coupe
6%
MPV
8%
Micro/City
2%
Prestige
1%
increased 4% to 12%
Other
3%
and saloons’ share
rose 2% to 19%. MPVs
share of the market
Saloon
19%
edged up one point to
8%, while
Sports/Coupes held
their own at 6%.
Hatchback
44%
Source: TNS-BMRB
‘Women are very
much in the driving
seat for hatchbacks
Women are very much
in the driving seat for hatchbacks, half of them opting for this style of car compared
with 31% of men. MPVs/People Carriers are also most sought after by women (11%)
and lower-income motorists (18%), but are not on the radar of younger and 65 yearsplus used car buyers. On the other hand, a fifth of men, 45-54 year-olds and
wealthier motorists purchased a used estate car.
Hatchbacks’ appeal appears to wane for cars priced over £15,000 ;these used car
buyers favouring saloons, estate cars, and off-road/4x4s more than other motorists.
29
Buying a used car rather than a new car
Nearly a third of
Buying new or used?
motorists cited
they ‘couldn’t
afford a new car’
32 %
Couldn' t afford new
as the over-riding
Better value
reason they
bought a used car
22
Depreciation
last time, 22%
15
think they ‘offer
better value for
Always buy used
12
money’, while 15%
of car owners
6
Needed quickly
believe there is
‘lower depreciation
More choice
4
with used cars’.
Source: TNS-BMRB
‘More men than
women are
convinced ‘used
cars offer better
value for money’
More men (24%)
than women(19%) are convinced ‘used cars offer better value for money’, while men
(17%) felt more strongly than women (12%) that ‘used cars are subject to lower
depreciation’.
Forty percent of car owners in the 17-34 year band said they ‘couldn’t afford to buy a
new car’, compared to only 20% of wealthier motorists and just 13% of older used
car buyers who voiced the same opinion.
Forty-seven per cent of owners who bought £10,000-plus used cars are certain they
’provide better value for money’, with two out of five of this group also sure used cars
offer ‘lower depreciation’.
Sales of used diesels rise
Diesel-engined used cars’ market share edged up 1% to 37% in the 2014 consumer
survey, as higher numbers of used fleet diesels reach the marketplace.
Diesels’ share of the new car market dropped one point to 49.8% last year, and is
currently forecast by the SMMT to slip to 49.1% in 2014. However, sales of used
diesels can be expected to rise significantly in the coming years as higher volumes of
new diesels sold over the past five years eventually enter the used car supply chain.
While 39% of male and 35% of female motorists bought a diesel last time, the top
diesel buyers were car owners in the 55-64 year age group, half of whom now own a
diesel-engined used car. Younger (31%) and older (30%) car owners seem to be
developing a growing appetite for a diesel car, both groups displaying a 10% swing
towards diesel in this year’s survey.
30
Diesel-engined
cars’ share of the
used car market
continues to rise in
Reasons for buying diesel
%
60
51
50
line with purchase
price – accounting
for nearly half
40
30
(47%) of used cars
costing between
£5,000 and
£10,000 and three
21
20
18
12
11
11
11
10
8
0
out of five of those
priced above the
£10,000 mark.
A half of motorists
cite ‘better fuel
consumption’ as
the chief reason for
buying diesel
Source: TNS-BMRB
A half of motorists
cite ‘better fuel consumption’ as the chief reason for buying a diesel used car.
31
Part Three – Car Owners' Options and Buying
Intentions
Buying a car in the next 12 months?
Despite much
brighter economic
Likelihood of buying a car in the next year
%
prospects, rising
35
unemployment,
30
33
higher house
prices and low
inflation, the
20
number of car
15
owners indicating
10
they would
25
25
18
10
8
5
4
3
‘certainly’ or ‘quite
likely’ buy a car in
0
Certainly will
Quite likely
the next year was
50:50
chance
Unlikely
Certainly not
Won' t buy
again
Don' t know
Source: TNS-BMRB
flat at 14% in this
year’s survey –
albeit 4% higher than two years earlier. Motorists saying there was a ‘50:50 chance’
of them buying a car in the next 12 months, slipped 2% to 8% this time, and those
who thought it ‘unlikely’ they would do so dropped a point to 25%
While a fifth of younger car buyers and 15% of wealthier respondents felt they might
buy a car in the coming year, just 5% of those over 65 years of age and a lowly 3% of
low-income motorists thought this would be something they could contemplate.
Three-quarters of
car owners plan to
buy a used car
when they next
make a change
Three-quarters of
car owners plan to
Next car bought will be
%
buy a used car
40
when they next
35
make a change –
30
40% of whom
25
intend buying a
20
used diesel – 3%
15
up on last year and
10
10% higher than
two years earlier.
38
27
14
6
5
3
3
3
4
1
1
0
Four out of five car
owners in the 1754 year age
groups are most
Source: TNS-BMRB
likely to opt for a
used car on the next occasion, as are middle and low-income motorists.
32
Half of owners of cars between £10,000 and £15,000 will be in the market for a used
diesel, and 55% with cars in the £15,000 to £20,000 bracket will have a nearly-new
car in their sights next time they change their vehicle.
The number of car
owners looking to
do business with a
‘franchise dealer’
rose this year
While some car owners might consider more than one option, the number of car
owners looking to do business with a ‘franchised dealer’ rose one point to 49% this
year, 46% of them hoping to trade in their current vehicle. Three out of 10
prospective used car buyers intend to deal ‘privately’ or with a ‘family member or
friend’, 16% from an ‘independent used car retailer’ and 9% from an ‘Internet trader’.
Although men and
Where next car will be bought
women think alike
on the ‘franchised
dealer’ front, the
former are more
likely to buy
‘privately’ or from
‘family or friend’
(33%) that the
latter at 26%.
‘Franchised
49
Franchised dealer
Private
%
23
Used car dealer
16
12
Don't know
Internet trader
9
Family friend
7
Car supermarket
6
dealers’ are very
much on the
agenda for three
Auction
Other
3
4
out of five 65
Source: TNS-BMRB
years-plus and
wealthier motorists, a similar number of the low-income group looking in the ‘private
sale/friend or family member’ direction, with ‘Internet traders’ more appealing to 1724 years-olds (16%).
Nine out of 10 car owners of £10,000 plus used cars plan to head in the direction of
the ‘franchised dealer sector’ for their next car, a half of them with a part-exchange
deal in mind.
Low or 0% interest new car next time?
Twelve per cent of car owners said they would ‘certainly’ think about buying a new
car instead of a used one next time they change, if a low or 0% interest loan was on
offer at the time – a drop of 5% on last year’s figure.
A further 23% of respondents thought it was ‘quite likely’ they would take such a
proposition on board, in contrast to 25% who felt this was ‘unlikely’ and 32% who
would ‘certainly not’ entertain such a proposal.
33
Low or % interest; new instead of used car purchase
Certainly not
%
32
Unlikely
25
Quite likely
23
Certainly
12
Don't know
8
Source: TNS-BMRB
Wealthier car
owners are more
likely to consider a
new car instead of a
used one
Wealthier car owners are the most likely to consider buying a new car instead of a
used one, 15% saying they would ‘certainly’ consider such a move if a suitable low or
0% loan was on the cards, while a further 26% thought it was ‘quite likely’ they would
go in this direction. While three out of five owners of £10,000 plus used cars said
they would ‘certainly’ or ‘quite likely’ consider such a move, it has much less appeal
for older and low-income motorists, just 9% of the former and 8% of the latter
declaring it was ‘certain’ they would give this any thought.
Sell your car for cash next time?
Consider selling car 'directly for cash'
%
70
59
60
54
51
50
50
47
45
42
44
38
40
30
20
10
0
All ages
Men
Women
17-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
Source: TNS-BMRB
34
Men are more likely
than women to
consider selling
their car ‘directly for
cash’
Men (51%)are more likely than women (42%) to consider selling their car ‘directly for
cash’, which also appeals to 59% of motorists in the 25-34 year age group, 54% of
35-44 year olds – and 40% of owners of used cars bought in the £5,000 to £10,000
range.
Reasons for selling for cash
The 47% of car owners, who said they would consider ‘selling their car directly for
cash’, were asked how they felt this approach might benefit them next time they
change their vehicle.
Reasons for selling 'for cash''
Better deal than trading in
42 %
Negotiate better deal
37
No longer need car
16
Part deposit for
replacement
13
Not afford to run car
6
Cash for other reasons
4
Use alternative transport
4
Source: TNS-BMRB International
Three out of five felt
‘they would achieve
a better price than
trading in their car’
Three out of five respondents felt ‘they would achieve a better price than trading in
their car’, while 37% were sure this would allow them ‘to negotiate a better deal on a
new or used vehicle’. While men and women think very much alike on this subject,
35-44 year-old motorists are more sure than others this approach would help them
‘achieve a better price than trading in their car’ – a fifth of them believing it would
allow them ‘to release part of their car’s value in cash or to form part of a deposit for
a replacement’.
A quarter of 65 years-plus car owners said they would consider selling for cash ‘when
they no longer need a car’, whereas three out of 10 owners who paid £15,000 plus
for their used car were sure such a move would allow them to ‘negotiate a better deal
than trading in their vehicle’.
35
Part Four – Economy, Ownership Options and
Technology
What car to buy during economic recovery?
The deepest recession in memory, five years of economic uncertainty and wage
restraint created financial pressures on countless car owners. Now that the country’s
economy is showing very welcome, clear and sustained signs of recovery, what type
of car might motorists think of buying next time they make a change?
Buying a car during economic recovery
Better fuel consumption
21
Lower road tax
19
Same type of car
18
Best purchase price
14
Lower CO2
12
Lower maintenance
10
Smaller car
9
Used instead of new
9
Best part-exchange price
8
Bigger car
7
Low interest loan
5
Lower depreciation
More prestigious marque
%
4
2
Source: TNS-BMRB International
This year, more in line with pre-recession levels, nearly a fifth (18%) of survey
respondents were of a mind to buy the ‘same type of car’ next time, compared with
just 10% who expressed this view last year.
There seems a little
less pressure on
cutting back
While cost is still very much on the agenda, there seems a little less pressure on
cutting back, fewer car owners (21%) looking towards a ‘car with better fuel
consumption’ next time, while 19% would choose a ‘car with lower road tax’. A mix
of ‘best possible purchase price’, ‘car with lower CO 2 ’, ‘car with lower maintenance’
and ‘a smaller car’ could all have an influence when deciding what car to buy.
Car buyers over the age of 45 are more likely to opt for the’ same type of car again’,
25-34 year-olds hanker for a ‘bigger car’, while those in the 55-64 year age group,
are more likely than others to consider a ‘used car rather than a new one’.
36
A ‘higher specification’ is on the cards for a fifth of 17-24 year-olds, while ‘buying the
same type of car’ is attractive to three out of five owners of cars priced in the
£10,000 plus range, and ’lower maintenance costs’ is a concern for motorists in the
£20,000-plus bracket.
Effect of technology on motoring
When asked ‘how they thought technology might affect motoring over the next five
Half of car owners
felt ‘cars will
become more fuel
efficient
years’, around half of car owners felt ‘cars will become more fuel efficient with better
fuel consumption’ and ‘electric cars will become more commonplace’.
A third of respondents believe ‘safety will improve because of automatic braking
systems and other driving aids’, while three out of 10 motorists think ‘drivers will
become more dependent on visual and audio aids such as parking sensors\cameras
and heads-up displays’.
Impact of technology over five years
Cars more fuel efficient
49
Electric cars commonplace
%
47
Safety will improve
34
Drivers more dependent on
visual/audo aids
29
Cars connected to Internet
17
Increased distractions
16
Insurance costs decrease
because of 'black box'
15
Passengers more occupied
with in-car entertainment
14
Fewer delays due to route
planning technology
7
None
7
Source: TNS-BMRB
Men are more convinced than women that ‘cars will become more fuel efficient’ and
‘electric cars will become more commonplace’ – views shared by wealthier car
owners, who also believe more strongly than others that ‘cars will be constantly
connected to the Internet’.
On the purchase price front, four out of five owners of £15,000-plus cars are sure
‘cars will become more fuel efficient’ and also believe ‘safety will improve because of
automatic braking systems and other driving aids’.
37
Alternatives to owning a car
This year’s survey also asked car owners if ‘in the next couple of years, they might
consider any alternatives to owning a car’. Three out of five motorists said they would
not consider such a move, a view expressed more strongly by women (65%) than
men (55%) – with owners of cars in the £5,000 – £10,000 band also more
uncomfortable with such a suggestion.
Options instead of owning a car
Public Transport
Bicycle
4
Company Car
4
Short- term lease
Motorbike
3
2
Car Club
1
Car rental
1
Shared Car Ownership
1
Don't know
Other
None
%
9
4
16
60
Source: TNS-BMRB
‘Public transport’
appeals more to
younger people and
the older generation
The thought of ‘public transport’ appeals more to younger people and the older
generation than others, the former group also more like to ‘get on their bike’ instead
of owning a car outright.
Eleven per cent of owners of cars in the £10,000 to £15,000 bracket see ‘a company
car’ as an option, while 17 % of those with cars bought between £15,000 and
£20,000 would consider a ‘short-term lease’ at some point instead of buying a car.
38
Regional Review
The BCA consumer research provides a valuable insight into the pattern of car
owners' buying and owning experiences across the various UK regions.
This year's survey found that 35% of Welsh and East Anglian respondents had
bought a car in the past two years, with 30% of South Western, East Midlands and
East Anglian motorists following suit. Only a quarter of West Midlands,
Yorkshire/Humberside and North Western car owners, and 14% of Londoners, had
bought a car during this 24-month period – 2% more than last year.
Car bought over past two years
%
90
85
79
79
80
75
80
80
78
73
73
71
67
70
59
60
50
40
35
32
30
27
26
20
35
30
29
25
26
28
24
14
10
0
% bought car in last two years
% of these bought used
Source: TNS-BMRB
South Western car buyers headed the used car table this year, 85% of them buying a
used vehicle in the past two years, as did 80% of car owners living in London, Wales,
East Midlands and Yorkshire/Humberside – compared with just 59% of Scots who
opted for a used car last time.
‘Personal experience' has the most powerful factor
‘Personal
experience of make
and model’ remains
the most powerful
factor in eight
regions
‘Personal experience of make/model' remains the most powerful factor in eight of the
country’s 11 regions when first thinking about what used car to buy – mentioned by
two out of five Northern and East Midlands’ motorists and a third of Welsh survey
respondents. The views of ‘family and friends’ is the most influential aspect in the
West Midlands (33%) and the South East (28%), but not so much with Scottish
motorist at just 18%. Taking a ‘test drive’ is very much in the frame for a third of East
Anglians at this point in the buying cycle, while ‘independent Internet sites’ were cited
by a quarter of West Midlanders and Londoners.
39
Regional Review
Considering what car to look for
14 16
18
Scotland
%
24
15
15
North
11
North West
28
40
15
17
15
Yorks/Humb
27
28
28
31
16 18
West Midlands
East Midlands
33
24
24
19
31
40
15
East Anglia
34
19
9
37
14
Wales
28
34
12
South West
16
26
27
18
17
South East
London
19
13
Internet
28
27
21
11
Test drive
Friends/Family
Personal experience
Source: TNS-BMRB
‘Crunch factors’ when deciding on a particular car
‘Price’ is the crunch issue in six of the UK regions when deciding which used car to
buy – particularly with West Midlands’ used car owners (55%) and two out of five
respondents living in London, the South East, Yorkshire/Humberside and the North
West of the country.
Critical factors in choosing a used car
40
23
London
South East
40
36
20
37
South West
47
35
24
Wales
37
34
13
East Anglia
28
17
33
East Midlands
51
26
West Midlands
55
36
22
Yorks/Humb
41
32
20
40
35
North West
19
North
31
30
Scotland
28
Price
%
31
32
Make/model of vehicle
37
37
Mileage (low)
Source: TNS-BMRB
40
Regional Review
‘Price’ is less of an issue in the East Midlands where half of motorists took account of
‘make and model of vehicle’, as did 47% of South Westerners. ‘Low mileage’ was top
of the list for half of East Anglian used car buyers last time, but much less of a
consideration for Londoners.
Factors influencing choice of used car retailer
‘Having the right car
at the right price’ is
top of car buyers’
priorities in nine
regions
When it comes to deciding which used car dealer to buy from, ‘having the right car at
the right price’ is top of car buyers’ priorities in nine of the UK’s regions, cited by
58% of Northern motorists and 55% of East Midlands’ respondents, although much
less influential with North Western and Scottish motorists at 27% and 20%
respectively.
Factors affecting choice of particular dealer
London
28
5
31
%
15
South East
42
South West
36
23
16
37
21
10
24
Wales
32
28
22
18
52
51
8
East Anglia
26
11
10
East Midlands
West Midlands
25
Yorks/Humb
8
50
41
17
North
20
Scotland
40
38
30
31
27 29
15
North West
55
21
12
Right car, right price
58
46
24
25
22
24
Good deal
Local
Trade in
Source: TNS-BMRB
‘Being able to ‘deal locally’ was top of the list for half of East Anglian used car buyers
last time, and ‘the ability to ‘trade in’ their existing car was crucial for a fifth of
Scottish car owners.
When to buy the next car?
East Midlands and South Western car owners are more likely to replace their car in
the next 12 months. Nineteen per cent of the former and 18% of the latter said this
would ‘certainly’ or ‘quite likely’ take place in the coming year.
One in 10 car owners in the South East, West Midlands and Yorkshire/Humberside
thought there was a ’50:50 chance’ they would change their car in the next 12
months, while 87% of Northerners and 85% of Londoners said this was either
‘unlikely’ or ‘would not happen at all in the future’.
41
Regional Review
Buying a car in the next 12 months
London
3 3
South East
3
South West
4
9
85
11
9
9
10
6
East Midlands
6
13
81
7
Yorks/Humb
2
11
North West
3
8
North
4
4 5
77
76
5
11
Scotland 1 8
73
6
East Anglia
West Midlands 1
77
14
Wales 1 12
%
78
10
10
77
82
7
87
83
8
Certainly
Quite likely
50/50
Unlikely/Not
Source: TNS-BMRB
With the exception of East Anglia, car owners are more likely to buy their next used
car from a franchised used car dealer than other sources. Three out of five East
Midlands and Welsh motorists have this in mind, more so than respondents living in
London/West Midlands (40%), and East Anglia where just 36% plan to follow this
route next time they change their vehicle.
London
%
40
8
36
South East
53
16
33
29
South West
42
31
59
Wales
20
18
East Anglia
10
East Midlands
10
36
39
61
26
West Midlands
40
28
27
Yorks/Humb
48
14
25
54
North West
20
North
Scotland
16
9
47
53
22
55
17
Franchised
Independent
Private/family
Source: TNS-BMRB
42
Regional Review
Buying ‘privately or from a friend’ could be in the frame for 47% of North West used
car buyers, 39% of East Anglian motorists and 36% of Londoners – while an
‘independent used car retailer’ is a more likely source in the South West (29%) and
the West Midlands ( 28%) than London, where just 8% of survey respondents cited
this possibility.
Three-quarters of South Eastern, South Western and North Western car owners plan
to buy a used car when they replace their current vehicle, although fewer of their
Welsh or Northern counterparts appear to be in the same frame of mind.
On the other hand, motorists in Yorkshire/Humberside (12%) and the South West
(9%), are more likely than others to consider buying a nearly-new car when the time
comes. Buying a new car is more likely to be on the cards for Northern, Scottish and
Welsh motorists at 16% than car owners living in London and the South West at 9%
and 3% respectively.
What type of car next?
London
66
South East
74
9
4
21
12
4
10
3
South West
74
Wales
62
East Anglia
71
8
10
11
East Midlands
72
6
14
8
West Midlands
69
Yorks/Humb
62
North West
73
North
55
Scotland
9
6
3
Used car
Nearly new
New car
13
12
14
11
13
23
16
7
65
14
13
12
6
13
16
8
%
16
12
Don't know
Source: TNS-BMRB
Major influences on the search for a car
‘Price range’ has
the biggest
influence when
searching for a car
‘Price range’ had the biggest influence on car owners in10 UK regions when they
were searching their latest used car, with Northern motorists paying more attention to
‘brand’ that time round – see overleaf. ‘Brand’ had more influence on East Anglian
(60%) and East Midlands (53%) used car buyers than others, although just three out
of 10 London, Welsh and South West motorists took this into account at this early
stage in the buying sequence.
43
Regional Review
Searching for car influences
%
27
Scotland
38
61
42
North
46
42
31
North West
46
61
37
36
Yorks/Humb
64
31
West Midlands
43
55
38
East Midlands
53
57
59
60
East Anglia
75
41
Wales
32
63
39
South West
32
53
36
South East
43
61
London
22
31
53
Model
Brand
Price
Source: TNS-BMRB
Three out of five East Anglian car shoppers (59%) were driven more by 'model range'
than other motorists when searching for a vehicle, as were 42% of Northerners –
unlike Scots (27%) and Londoners (22%) who were less concerned with this aspect.
Selling your car 'for cash'
Two-thirds of East Anglian car owners and a half of London, South Eastern and East
and West Midlands’ respondents said they would consider ‘selling their car directly
for cash’ when the time came to replace or dispose of their current vehicle.
Sell car for cash
Scotland
North
North West
%
29
40
41
Yorks/ Humb
44
West Midlands
49
East Midlands
49
East Anglia
Wales
South West
South East
London
67
41
45
50
53
Source: TNS-BMRB
44
Regional Review
However, ‘selling for cash' seems to have less appeal for motorists living in the North
and Scotland – 40% of the former and just 29% of the latter saying they would
consider such a proposition.
Buying a new car instead of used
Buying a new car rather than used
Scotland
10
North
12
North West
15
Yorks/Humb
11
24
West Midlands
12
21
East Midlands
15
East Anglia
3
Wales
6
South West
8
South East
14
London
15
34
26
25
24
30
18
45
15
46
19
46
32
23
35
13
49
49
26
22
22
30
20
42
23
19
49
27
21
Certainly
40
37
Quite likely
Unlikely
27
Not, don't know
Source: TNS-BMRB
East Anglians and Scots in the frame
Half of East Anglian
car owners felt they
would think about
buying a new
instead of a used
car
A half of East Anglian (52%) and 44% of Scottish car owner felt they would ‘certainly’
or ‘quite likely’ think about buying a new car instead of a new one if a ‘0% or low
interest new car finance deal’ was on the table next time they replace their car.
In contrast, ‘0% or low interest new car finance’ is much less likely to convince Welsh
and South Western motorists to take advantage of such an offer – just 28% of them
saying they would entertain such a prospect.
45
European Overview
This section of the Used Car Market Report looks at new and used car markets in key
European countries that make up the EU28, plus the three European Free Trade
Association countries (EFTA). Western Europe comprises the original EU15 states plus
EFTA.
Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Greece, Germany, Ireland, Italy,
EU15
Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, the UK
EU15 plus the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland,
EU25
Slovakia, Slovenia (Malta and Cyprus data not available)
EU28
EU 25 plus Bulgaria, Romania – Croatia from 2014
EFTA3
Iceland, Norway, Switzerland
Western Europe
EU15 plus EFTA3
Europe (EU28) has a population of 501 million and a parc of some 252 million passenger
cars, 212 million of them in Western European countries. According to ACEA (European
Automobile Manufacturers Association), Europe has 2.2 million people directly involved in
automotive manufacturing and a further 5.1 million jobs in the related manufacturing,
sales, maintenance and services sectors.
New car registrations
Europe's new car registrations peaked at 16 million units in 2007. Following the support
New car volumes
fell steeply to a near
20 –year low of 12.3
million units
of wide-spread scrappage incentive schemes in 2009 and 2010, new car volumes fell
steeply to a near 20-year low of 12.3 million in 2013 – some three million units lower
than pre-recession levels.
European new car volumes; EU27/EFTA 2004 – 2013
17
15.8
16
15.3
16.0
15.3
Millions of units
15
14.7
14.5
13.8
14
13.6
13
12.5
12.3
12
11
10
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: ACEA
46
European Overview
Western Europe's (EU15/EFTA) new car sales slipped 1.9% and 219,000 to 11.55
million units in 2013, representing 94% of the overall European total.
Western European markets
The UK and Spain
were the only major
markets to see their
new car volumes
grow in 2013
The UK and Spain were the only major EU markets to see their new car volumes grow
in 2013, the former up by 10.8% to 2.26 million and the latter rising 3.3% to 723,000
units. Germany’s new car registrations dropped 4.2% to below the three million mark,
for the first time in three years, while France and Italy saw their volumes fall by 5.7%
and 7.1% respectively.
EU15 new car registrations; 2013
3.00
2.50
2.00
Millions
1.50
2.95
2.26
1.79
1.30
1.00
0.72
0.49
0.50
0.42
0.32 0.27
0.18
0.10 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.01
0.00
Source: ACEA
Other Western European markets had mixed results last year. Whereas Denmark’s
(6.7%) and Portugal’s (11.1%) new car sales moved into positive territory, Austria’s
(-5.1%), Finland’s (-7.0%) and Sweden’s (-3.7%) all fell back in 2013.
•
Germany’s new car volumes fell for the second year in a row; by 4.2% to 2.95
million units – see overleaf. French new cars sales tumbled 15.7% and 108,000
units to 1.79 million last year – a drop of 413,000 units over the past two years.
•
Italy’s new car sales continued to spiral downwards in 2013, by a further 99,000
units (-7.1%) to a lowly 1.3 million – 1.2 million below their pre-recession high of
2.5 million. Spain, on the other hand, saw its new car registrations rise for the
first time in eight years, edging up 3.3% to 722,000, a long way short, though, of
the 1.63 million units reached in 2006.
47
European Overview
New car sales major EU markets; 2004 – 2013
4.0
3.5
3.81
3.47
3.32
3.27
3.15
3.17
3.09
3.0
Millions of units
3.08
2.95
2.92
2.57
2.26
2.50
2.44
2.5
2.34
2.24
2.0
2.07
2.01
2.40
2.33
2.00
2.06
1.63
1.61
2.16
2.13
2.27
2.16
2.05
1.99
2.25
2.26
2.20
2.03
2.04
1.96
1.94 1.90
1.79
1.75
1.5
1.53
1.52
1.40
1.30
1.16
1.0
0.95
0.98
0.81
0.5
0.70
0.72
2012
2013
0.0
2004
2005
2006
France
2007
2008
Germany
2009
Italy
2010
2011
Spain
United Kingdom
Source: ACEA
•
The UK’s new car volumes outstripped the European market for the second year
running in 2013, up 220,000 units to a six-year high of 2.26 million – stretching
its lead over France for second place in the European new car sales league.
The major markets’ (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK) share of the European
new car market rose 1.5% to 74.4% in 2013, due almost entirely to the strong growth
in UK new car sales.
New member states
New car sales new EU member states, 2013
300
289.9
250
200
164.7
150
100
66.0
50
57.7
56.1
50.9
19.3
19.5
12.2
10.6
0
Source: ACEA
48
European Overview
Overall Eastern European new car sales were flat at 754,00 in 2013 – a rise of 6.3%
in Poland’s volumes to 290,000 unable to offset a drop in other major CEE states’
sales. Although Hungary’s new car volumes lifted 5.8% to 56,000, the Czech
Republic’s fell 5.3% and 9,300 units to 165,000. Romania’s new car sales were also
down last year; by 13.1% to 57,700, with Slovakia’s 4.7% lower at 66,000 units.
Used car volumes
Overall European used car volumes are considerably higher than EU new car sales;
the six biggest used markets, alone, accounting for nearly 26 million used car sales in
2013.
Used car volumes, 2013
8
7.4
7.1
7
6
5.3
Million units
5
4
3
2
2.5
1.7
1
1.7
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.5
0.5
0
Source: National Trade Bodies
Longer-term trend
The major used car market chart (overleaf) shows how UK used car sales recovered
from the recession and economic downturn, growing 1.1 million units over the past
four years to reach 7.4 million again in 2013.
Germany’s used car
volumes followed a
similar pattern to
the UK’s
Germany’s used car volumes has followed a similar pattern to the UK’s in recent
years, dropping to 6 million at the height of recession, thereafter rising steadily to 7.1
million units, securing its long-held second spot in the European used car sales table.
Despite long-term economic difficulties in both countries, French and Spanish used
car sales have held up relatively well over the past decade. Italian used car volumes
settled at 2.5 million over the past two years – around 700,000 units lower than
2007/2008’s peak of 3.2 million.
49
European Overview
Used car volumes major markets, 2004 – 2013
8
7.4
7.4
7.3
6.8
7
6.8
6.7
6.6
Millions
6.6
6.3
6.7
6.3
6
5
7.1
7.1
6.4
6.1
5.4
5.4
5.5
2.9
3.1
5.6
6.7
7.1
6.9
6.4
6.0
5.5
5.4
5.5
5.4
5.3
2.5
2.5
1.6
1.6
1.7
2011
2012
2013
5.2
4
2.9
3
2
1.4
3.2
2.9
1.7
1.6
1.6
3.2
2.8
1.7
1.5
2.8
1.4
1
0
2004
2005
2006
France
2007
2008
Germany
2009
2010
Italy
Spain
United Kingdom
Car parc
Parc sizes, 2012
45
40
35
43.4
37.1
31.6
30.9
Millions
30
25
22.2
20
15
10
5
7.9
5.4
4.5
4.6
4.4
2.2
0
Source: OICA
50
European Overview
The average age of cars in Europe is 8.3 years. The average age of cars on UK roads
is 7.7 years, the youngest of EU markets apart from Ireland’s 6.3 years – compared
with Germany’s 8.3, France’s 8.2 and Sweden’s figure of 9.8 years.
The UK’s car density of 466 cars per 1,000 inhabitants lags some way behind Italy’s
610 per 1,000 of the population, Germany’s 525 and France’s figure of 502. Europe
overall posts 483 cars per 1,000 inhabitants, comfortably ahead of the USA’s 417,
Japan’s 452 and China with 41 cars per 1,000 people – although the latter is rising
fast.
‘Parc turn’ percentage
The dynamism of any car market can be measured by the churn in the marketplace –
the number of vehicles changing hands each year relative to the size of the country's
car parc – known as the ‘parc turn’. Countries with a well-developed wholesale
infrastructure for used cars and tax-friendly treatment of used car sales, generally
have a much faster churn of vehicles.
Parc turn percentages, 2013
%
35.0
32.5
30.7
30.0
29.9
29.1
25.1
25.0
24.9
23.1
22.5
20.0
15.0
13.7
10.7
10.3
10.0
5.0
0.0
Source: ACEA/National Trade Bodies
The UK remains the
most dynamic of
the EU’s major
markets in terms of
parc turn
The UK remains the most dynamic of the EU’s major markets in terms of parc turn,
with combined new and used car sales of 9.7 million pushing its ratio up from 30.2%
in 2012 to 30.7% a year later – a clear seven points higher than Germany and France
at 23.1% and 22.5% respectively. This underlines the UK’s well-developed used car
infrastructure and the long-term professionalism of its wholesale sector.
51
European Overview
Italy’s parc turn slipped to 10.3% in 2013, as its combined new and used car
volumes fell by 85,000 units last year. Spain’s parc turn, on the other hand, rose for
the first time since 2010 to 10.7% from 10.3% the previous year.
Parc turn percentage major markets, 2004 – 2013
35
32
33
33
31
30
25
25
25
25
25
28
25
24
22
22
22
29
28
25
24
24
20
31
30
29
23
22
22
23
23
23
23
20
16
15
15
15
16
15
15
15
15
14
16
13
12
10
11
12
12
11
11
11
10
10
2012
2013
5
2004
2005
2006
France
2007
2008
2009
Germany
Italy
2010
Spain
2011
United Kingdom
Source: ACEA/National Trade Bodies
The UK’s parc turn peaked at 34% in 2003, then fell to 28% during the economic
troubles. Apart from a slip in 2007, Germany’s parc turn has proved relatively stable
Germany’s parc
turn has proved
relatively stable
over the past
decade
over the past decade, while France’s ratio has slipped in the past two years reflecting
a marked decline in its new car sales.
Italy’s parc turn continued its downward trend in 2013, as its new and used car
volumes show no signs of recovery from their recession-driven decline.
While Spain’s ratio has shown a similar downward trend in recent years, the first
signs of recovery appeared with a small rise in 2013, as both new and used car
volumes rose for the first time in several years.
52
European Overview
Used:new volume ratios
The UK’s used:new
ratio leads all other
EU markets by
some way
Although the UK’s used:new ratio slipped to 3.3:1 in 2013, as stronger new car sales
outpaced the rise in used car volumes, it still leads all other EU major markets by
some way. France’s figure edged up to 3.0:1 last year, the result of relatively flat
used car sales versus a marked drop in new car volumes.
Germany’s used:new ratio rose for the second year to 2.4:1, reflecting a fall of
130,000 units in its new car volumes versus a rise in its used car sales. Italy’s and
Spain’s ratios remained flat at 1.9:1 and 2.3:1 respectively, as new and used car
volumes followed a similar path last year.
Used:new volume ratios, 2013
Portugal
4.8
Netherlands
4.1
Sweden
3.8
UK
3.3
Denmark
3.0
France
3.0
Austria
2.6
Germany
2.4
Spain
Italy
Belgium
2.3
1.9
1.8
Source: ACEA/ National Trade Bodies
Used car sales per 1,000 inhabitants
The UK retained its long-held position at the top of the used car sales per 1,000
inhabitants league (see overleaf), its ratio rising three points to 116 in 2013 – with
other major markets featuring in the lower half of the table. While Germany's used car
per 1,000 of the population rose four points to 88 last year, France's ratio slipped
from 82 to 81, year on year.
While Italy and Spain still prop up the used car sales per 1,000 inhabitants’ table their
ratios both increased slightly in 2013, the former’s figure up one point to 42 and the
latter’s also one point higher at 35 per 1,000.
53
European Overview
Used car sales per 1,000 population, 2013
UK
116
Sweden
107
Netherlands
102
Austria
98
Denmark
97
Germany
88
France
81
Belgium
78
Portugal
49
Italy
Spain
42
35
United Kingdom
UK new car volumes
closing the gap on
pre-recession levels
UK new car volumes climbed
UK used car sales; 2009 – 2013
220,000 units to 2.26 million in
2013. closing the gap on pre-
7.5
6.3
recession levels in the region of
2.5 million.
continue their upward trend in
6.7
2010
2011
7.4
5
Millions
UK new car registrations
7.1
6.6
2.5
2014, up 10.6% for the first six
months of the year – the latest
SMMT forecast predicting they
0
2009
2012
2013
will reach 2.45 million for the
year as a whole.
The UK’s used car sales went up 285,000 units to 7.4 million in 2013, its
performance markers of 31% parc turn, 3.3:1 used:new ratio and used car sales of
116 per 1,000 of the population continuing to outpace the EU’s other major car
markets.
54
European Overview
Germany
Germany’s new car volumes dropped for the second year to 2.95 million in 2013, its
lead over the UK new car market narrowing by 350,000 units to just 688,000 last
year.
While Germany’s new car
German used car sales; 2009 – 2013
registrations rose 2.5% to 1.54
7.5
million for the first half of 2014,
they failed to keep pace with
Germany’s used car market
6.4
2010
2011
7.1
6.0
Europe’s overall 5.5% new car
5.0
Millions
market growth.
6.9
6.4
2.5
volumes increased 3.1% and
212,000 units to a new high of
7.1 million in 2013. Its used car
0.0
2009
2012
2013
parc turn remained flat at
23.1%, and its used:new ratio
went up from 2.2 to 2.4,
Germany’s used car sales per
1,000 inhabitants rose four points to 88 year on year.
Italy
Italy’s car markets
experienced
differing fortunes in
2013
Italy’s car markets experienced differing fortunes in 2013. While its used car market
volumes remained flat at 2.51 million units, Italy’s new car sales continued their
downward trend, dropping a further 100,000 to 1.3 million units. Italian new car sales
are, however, showing some promise in 2014, rising 3.3% for the first six months of
the year.
Italy’s used car performance
Italian used car sales; 2009 – 2013
indicators remain low, however,
its parc turn dropping 0.4% to
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.8
10.3%, the lowest for the
2.5
2.5
2012
2013
countries featured in this report
2.0
Denmark’s scores for this key
ratio.
Millions
– a third of the UK’s and
1.0
A 7.1% fall in new car sales
versus flat used car volumes
saw Italy's used:new volume
0.0
2009
ratio rise from 1.8:1 in 2011 to
2010
2011
1.9:1 in 2012 – and its used
car sales per 1,000 of the population settle at 42.
55
European Overview
France
French new car market
volumes suffered a notable fall
French used car sales; 2009 – 2013
for the second year running, by
6
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.3
2010
2011
2012
2013
5.2
108,000 to 1.79 million units
last year – falling further behind
the UK in Europe’s new car
are a little more promising,
Millions
sales league. 2014’s volumes
4
2
however, new car sales up
2.9% for the January to June
period.
0
2009
French used car sales slipped
50,000 units to 5.3 million in
2013 as the country’s financial difficulties prevail – pushing its used car parc turn
down to 22.5% from 23.1% the previous year.
The fall in new car volumes, versus a more modest drop in used car sales last year,
saw French used:new ratio edge up 0.2 to 3.0:1 in 2013.
Spain
Spain’s new car
market enjoyed a
degree of respite
last year
Spain's new car market
Spanish used car sales; 2009 – 2013
enjoyed a degree of respite
last year, its new car volumes
2
rising 23,000 to 723,000
1.7
following six years in virtual
1.5
1.7
1.6
1.6
2011
2012
1.4
market volumes more than
half during that period.
A government-backed
Millions
‘freefall’ – seeing its new car
1
0.5
incentive programme has
seen Spanish new car
registrations climb 17.8% to
455,000 units for the first six
0
2009
2010
2013
months of 2014.
While Spain’s new car sales remain in the doldrums, its used car volumes staged a
modest recovery in 2013, up 33,000 to 1.65 million – helping its parc turn rise from
10.3% to 10.7% year on year, with its used new ratio up a decimal point to 2.3:1.
Spain's used car sales per 1,000 inhabitants edged up one point to 35 in 2013, the
lowest figure in this report.
56
European Overview
Additional sources include:
ACEA (Association des Constructeurs Européens d’Automobiles)
Office for National Statistics
Verband der Automobilindustrie e.v.
Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland
Zentralverband des dt. KFZ-Gewerbes
Ministerie de l’Equipement, des Transports et du Logement
CCFA (Comité des Constructeurs Français d’Automobiles) France
Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, Nederland
FederAuto, Belgium
National Institute for Statistics, Belgium
Danish Automobile Federation
Danmarks Statistik
ANFIA - Studies & Statistics, Italy
INE, España
GANVAM, España
Marketing Systems Iberia
ACAP (Associacão do Comércio Automóvel de Portugal)
Statistik Austria
57
Recession, Recovery, Buyers and the
Used Car Market
Emeritus Professor Peter N C Cooke
GDP figures published at the end of July suggest that the UK economy is 0.2% higher
than it was at the start of pre-recession levels. Recovery started in the fourth quarter
2009 so it’s taken four and a half years to reach the pre-recession mark, although
this must be seen against the headwinds of varying degrees of European and global
recession.
The most recent figures from the World Bank suggest the UK has the fastest growing
economy among the world’s major economies.
To the private citizen however the issue might be seen as more fundamental;
“has my income recovered – and how might it change over the next few years?”
On this front the news is not so good. GDP per capita is still some 5% below where it
was at the start of the recession –as the working population has increased, so it may
be another year or so before we are back to individual GDP at the start of recession.
As important, the claim that ‘I’m not seeing the benefits of the recovering economy’
is easily explained by the reality of the situation that salary and wage negotiations
tend to take place once a year and offer a step rise, while the economy recovers over
time.
But what are the implications of these economic changes for used car buyers? Will
the market return to its former shape – or will it be significantly different? This chapter
seeks to set car buyers’ perspective in context and also highlight a possible new
cloud just coming over the used car horizon.
Economic change and recovery
To individual potential new or used car buyers there are perhaps four sets of broad
data they might consider – improvements, or otherwise, in GDP – the national picture,
changes in the RPI and CPI – how inflation overall is developing and the rate of
unemployment – even if the vast majority of the working population is gainfully
employed.
Consider the following charts for a simplistic snapshot. Each of these macroeconomic
issues moves on a monthly basis as they are aggregates of a range of issues.
.
58
GDP versus previous year; 2000 - 2018
4.0
3.9
2.5
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.2
2.5 2.1
2.7
2.7
1.7
GDP % inc/dec previous year
2.0
2.3
2.6
2.6
2.5
1.7
1.1
1.0
0.3
0.0
-0.1
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0
-5.2
-6.0
Source: ONS/OBR
The GDP chart above shows the crash in 2009 when the measure sank 5.2% versus
the previous year, which had already slipped. Since then there has been a recovery
and, for the next years through to 2018 a steady year over year improvement is
predicted. The predictions shown here are those of the Office of Budget
Responsibility –regarded as independent agency.
Politicians may claim the economy is set fair for recovery but they have not covered
themselves in glory in recent years. Better to use independent forecasts, especially
with a General Election coming over the horizon. Consumers have long memories and
still have the fear of the recent recession in their minds and feel happier with
independent forecasts.
CPI and RPI increase versus previous year; 2000 - 2018
6.0
5.2
Peer cent inc/dec previous year
5.0
4.6
4.3
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.2
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.6
3.2
3.9
2.2
2.7
2.1
1.8 1.7
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.2
1.3
3.2
3.0
3.3
2.8
2.3 2.3
1.0
3.8
3.6
2.6
2.6
1.9
2.0
2.0
1.4 1.3
0.8
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
RPI
CPI
Source: ONS/OBR
59
The second measure, inflation, is similarly anticipated to hold at a reasonable level as
indicated by the Office of Budgets responsibility’s RPI and CPI predictions. Inflation
can wipe out savings and destroy the value of fixed incomes sooner rather than later.
Given economic recovery and an increase of RPI and CPI broadly in line with the
government’s preferred level of close to 2%, from the independent earner, they might
expect to be able to achieve those levels of annual increase in wages so at least not
have a declining income in real terms, although the threat of higher interest rates has
to be factored in.
The third measure for the many of the population is the risk of unemployment.
Elsewhere in Europe, unemployment has risen to a much greater level than in the UK
and has reached 25% elsewhere. There is often a deep-seated concern of ‘being out
of work’. The following chart shows UK unemployment is expected a steady drop
steadily over the next few years.
UK unemployment rate; 2000 - 2018
%
9
8.4
7.9
8
7.8
7.8
7.2
7
6.8
6.5
6.1
6
5.8
5.6
5.5
5.1
5
5.2
5.1
5.7
5.4
5.4
4.8 4.9
4
3
Source: ONS/OBR
The decline from over 8% in 2011 through a steady annual decline to a forecast 5.4%
by 2018 would suggest not only a recovering economy but also that, by implication,
wage rates may again start to move in the right direction. A declining unemployment
level too suggests an improving ‘feel good factor’ across the general working
population.
Economic recovery is hitting different parts of the economy at different rates. The
chart below shows how different industry sectors have evolved post 2008.
Construction, historically a major employer and particularly of SMEs and the selfemployed, is showing, to date, the slowest rate of recovery while the services sector
has recovered most rapidly. Coalition efforts are focusing on manufacture at present
and, through various finance schemes on rebooting the housing market. Each of
60
these changing rates of recovery may, in turn knock through to the used car buyer in
terms of incomes and personal confidence to buy.
Recovery by industry components; 2008 - 2014
120
115
2008 = 100
110
105
102.9
100
95
92.6
89.3
90
88.7
85
80
75
70
Manufacturing
Production
Construction
Services
Source: ONS
Current government policy appears to be on encouraging development in
manufacturing and construction – both major employment sectors.
Income levels
To the private buyer, personal income levels are critical. While the pervious charts
would suggest the economy is improving, and some industry sectors are doing better
than others. At a more focused level, the following two charts provide an interesting
counterpoint.
The first represents a ‘feel-good factor’ the level of disposable income per household
shown in the chart below. This is arguably the benchmark figure as it represents what
a household actually has available to spend.
It will be noted how there has been a steady trend in weekly household disposable
income post mid-2011. Such a recovering disposable income level - £10 a week or
about 6% – can be seen as a useful increase when looking at bigger acquisitions
provided it is expected to be a sustainable enhancement.
61
Weekly household disposable income
£175
£174
£171
s
e
s
u
n
o
b
l
c
x
e
s
e
c
ri
p
t
n
re
r
u
c
k
e
e
w
r
e
p
£
£171
£170
£167
£165
£163
£160
£155
£150
£145
Source: ONS
It is a truism that few would claim to recognise such figures. There are significant
differences between gender and also on a regional basis. Equally, focus all too often
is on the south east.
The chart below indicates the broad spread of gross incomes across the country. The
underlying implications are significant in that what might be a ‘reasonable income’ in
one part of the country may be less so in London or the South East. Price levels and
incomes within regions tend to balance each other out over time
The difference between the UK average of £564 gross weekly income may be ‘very
acceptable’ in some regions, while in London it is more than a hundred pounds a
week below the average.
62
Gross weekly earnings by region and gender
700
674
650
634
616
600
581
564
550
s
g
in
n
r
a
e
ly
k
e
e
w
s
s
o
r
G
539
529
529
554
543
514
500
488
485
454
450
431
400
350
300
250
Source: ONS
So far, the charts have shown a relative imbalance across the country in terms of
economic development and relative income levels, all of which may contribute to the
ability to afford a new or used car.
Overall, the indicators are that from a personal viewpoint, recovery has started, is
claimed to be sustainable and, therefore, might be expected to be reflected in the
health of the new and used car markets.
Automotive industry changes
It will be noted that used car sales commonly outnumber new car sales by 3:1 in
volume terms (see below). The majority of private buyers settle for a used product,
gradually acquiring a younger or more prestigious used product. Hence the
importance of the used car sector to the buyer while, to the seller, the used car
sector is critical to enable them to release equity in the current vehicle before
acquiring a replacement. The volume chart relating new and used car volumes would
also suggest that used cars are traded a number of times before they are finally
scrapped.
63
New vs. used car sales by volume; 2004 - 2013
11
10
9.4
9.7
9.7
8.8
9
8.3
8
Millions
7
9.7
9.5
6.8
7.4
7.3
7.1
6.7
6.3
8.6
9.1
8.6
7.4
7.1
6.6
6.7
2.0
1.9
2.0
2011
2012
6
5
4
3
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.4
2006
2007
2.1
2
1
2004
2005
2008
New
2.0
2009
Used
2010
2.3
2013
Total
Source: TNS-BMRB
There is a similar disparity between the overall values of the UK’s new and used car
markets, currently running at about £6 billion a year, a slight increase over the
previous year’s figures.
Given that there has been an increase in new car registrations in the review year, yet
a proportionally smaller increase in used car sales, one might conclude there is a
twofold cause in the difference in total sales value. On the one hand, new car prices
have been depressed and there has been a continued weakening of the mix while, on
the other hand, as shown elsewhere in the review, used car prices have continued to
improve due to both stronger demand and a continuing shortage.
New vs. used car market values; 2004 - 2013
45
42.7
40
38.1
£ billion
36.7
35.7
35.0
35
33.9
32.4
33.3
32.4
32.3
32.2
34.2
32.4
32.3
33.0
30.0
30
28.1
28.7
29.0
28.0
25
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
New
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Used
64
The relationship between the value and volume of new and used cars in the United
Kingdom market will move over time but such is the importance of the used car
market that we are unlikely to return, in the short to medium term to the position
where the new car market has a greater value than the used car market.
A Sting In the Tail?
The foregoing paragraphs suggest the economic status and propensity to consume,
even invest, by consumers might be driving a sustainable recovery.
However, in the past few weeks a new cloud has emerged on horizon. Diesel
emissions. The EU in Brussels has issued new information regarding pollution levels
allegedly created by diesel engines and indicated action must be taken to cut such
pollution.
Given the popularity of diesel-engined cars particularly with fleet operators, sanctions
against diesels may have implications for the used car market. Such sanctions may
impact negatively on used diesel prices, while the focus may move to petrol-powered
cars – with the possibility of higher used petrol car prices.
Elsewhere in the report there are implied suggestions of an imbalance of between
petrol and diesel powered used ex-fleet cars coming to market. If the economic
pressure builds on used diesel car prices fleet operators will need to balance the
benefits of lower running costs with the potential reduction in the residual values
which might occur over time.
The situation has been further complicated by the mayor of London as well as
politicians in other major conurbations looking at possible diesel penalties. While it is
too early to predict what the impact of sanctions on diesels might be, private car
buyers may well start to consider their options.
Some initial conclusions
This short chapter has sought to highlight a few of the statistical issues associated
with the private new and used car sectors and to relate some of the issues raised in
the earlier part of this report with the broader market.
The recent BCA report ‘The Closer View’ examines a number of these issues in more
detail.
However, it is clear that the used car market is infinitely more complex than the new
car market not only in terms of the sheer age and range of products on offer but also
in terms of the quality of product, the mileage and the variety of channels through
which that product can be acquired.
65
Hard or Soft Landing for Used Car
Values
It would be fair to claim that the provision of both new and used cars for the private
sector has undergone profound change since the 2008 recession. Perhaps the
biggest change has been the way that private car owners have rethought their car
ownership options and how they might fund their vehicle.
Conventionally, a new car was aspirational to the majority of private car owners – the
cost of a suitable new car was almost invariably beyond their immediate budget.
However, this dynamic may have been breached post 2008, as new cars have
become realistically more affordable on competitive finance packages. As important,
those finance packages may have been something the would-be buyers may not have
considered in the past. Add together the aggressive new car pricing and finance
deals and to many with secure incomes or employment a new or used car may have
migrated from being aspirational to becoming a ‘white good’ and, psychologically
being treated differently.
The challenge now, as the UK economy moves into a period of sustainable economic
recovery, is if this will lead to further changes in terms of private new and used car
acquisition;
‘will the recent cohort of first-time new car buyers – traditional buyers of younger
used cars – return to buying a used car if new car prices begin to rise and finance
rates start to increase?’
The new/used car balance could be claimed to be on a knife-edge, and the rational
car owner planning to change their car could move either way. Will the memory, the
thrill, of a first new car, outweigh the otherwise rational economic consideration of
buying a historically very acceptable, personally suitable younger used car? Equally,
how might that prudent buyer factor in the growing risk of increased cost of finance
with economic recovery?
It would take a major survey to determine how many traditional private motorists have
switched from a nearly-new or used car to buying their first new car in recent years.
Indirect evidence based on the changing patterns of car finance suggests the number
could be quite significant based on growth in personal contract hire over the past few
years. The chart shows movements in business and private car finance during the
recovery post-recession.
While the bulk of the finance methods remain relatively stable, there are
methodologies which have moved significantly – the chart shows a slippage in the
fleet management of some 100,000 units but with slow burn recovery as the
economy recovers. The big movement has been the jump in personal contract
purchase..
66
Hard or Soft Landing for Used Car Values?
Methods of car finance; 2008 - 2013
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,321,959
1,317,595
1,366,011
1,295,813
1,319,456
1,378,123
1,200,000
Units
1,000,000
793,204
800,000
600,000
400,000
369,048
322,761
324,549
222,222
200,000
0
87,310
32,731
2008
212,644
128,503
26,134
2009
191,559
244,494
204,337
181,764
19,497
26,808
2010
2011
Contract Hire
Fleet Management
Contract Purchase
Personal Contracts
23,939
31,737
2012
2013
Finance Lease
Source: BVRLA
The growth in personal contract purchase, a method of funding promoted to private
car buyers, is shown below. The parc has moved from 87,310 in 2008 to close on
800,000 in 2013 – and is understood still to be rising.
UK personal contract hire parc; 2008 - 2013
800,000
793,204
700,000
600,000
Units
500,000
400,000
369,048
300,000
222,222
212,644
200,000
128,503
100,000
87,310
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Personal Contracts Cars
Source: BVRLA
Recent growth in low-cost finance may have been justified in terms of supporting new
car sales in the UK when they are not selling in the EU, there may be longer-term
implications in the used car market.
67
New car buyers who have acquired through PCP, and those who have taken cheap
loans elsewhere for new cars in the last 3-4 years, may now be coming to the point
when those loans are either paid off or the cars due to be returned.
The challenge for the next couple of years will be – ‘will those buyers who changed
their acquisition habits to take account of shorter term market changes continue with
that new philosophy in future or will they revert to their previous practices with regard
to changing their cars?’
New car registrations; historic and forecast
The chart below shows the trend of new car registrations in the United Kingdom post
2000 and the most recent SMMT forecasts.
UK new car registrations; 2000 - 2015
2.56
2.6
2.46
2.58
2.57
2.44
2.4
2.45
2.40
2.34
2.26
2.22
2.2
2.13
1.99
2.0
Millions of cars
2.47
2.04
2.03
0.11
1.94
0.28
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.71
1.92
1.2
1.0
New car sales
Scrappage deals
New car sales forecast
Source: SMMT
This oft-interpreted chart shows that registrations peaked in 2003 and again in 2007
but then took a steep drop in 2008.
The market reached its nadir in 2009 but was bolstered by the government-driven
Scrappage Programme of 2009-2010.
The hatched area shows the volume of cars replaced using the £2,000 per unit
scrappage incentive. Many of these units went to first-time new car buyers, others
were pulled forward sales. Many acquisitions were small budget (Korean) cars which
carried five year warranties. Those units are likely to be retained by their owners
beyond the conventional replacement period.
The concern is not so much with the sourcing of these cars, although the policy did
give an unplanned boost to the budget car sector. The issue is that those cars
68
acquired through scrappage deals are likely to remain with their proud owners far
longer than a conventional purchase.
Why should those owners change their new small cars, commonly with exceptional
five year warranty or service coverage included, and likely to be driven small annual
mileages rather than the more conventional 10,000 miles of the private car?
The other side of the drop in new car registrations and the gradual return of sales is
the ‘Used Car Supply Gap’ as identified earlier represents maybe as many as two
million cars that were never registered.
While the recession held down demand for new and used cars, the two must be
assumed to be in near equilibrium and any imbalance in supply and demand would
have be balanced by the change in used car prices. Prices at auction suggest there
was an imbalance in favour of a shortage of supply measured by the increase in
prices at auction.
Used car prices at auction; 2008 - 2014
£8,000
£7,500
£7,361
£7,476
£7,000
£6,451
£6,500
£6,188
£5,905
£6,000 £5,880
£5,500
£5,000
£4,836
£4,500
Apl
Oct
Jan-14
Apl
July
Oct
Jan-13
Apl
July
Oct
Jan-12
Apl
July
Oct
Jan-11
Apl
July
Oct
Jan 10
Apl
July
Oct
Jan-09
Apl
July
Jan-08
£4,000
Source: BCA
Historically, this phenomenon of a used car supply gap has happened at previous
recessions and recovery periods but, because more previous recessions have not
been so prolonged or so deep, normal market mechanisms have taken care of
rebalancing the market.
A new replacement paradigm?
As shown at the start of these notes, there has been a significant growth in the take up of contract purchase for private car buyers. New car sales in mainland Europe
have been poor and the UK psyche loves nothing more than a bargain – whether that
is cheap finance or aggressively priced new cars – or both. Offer the two together
69
and one can stimulate the new car market beyond a natural growth rate even if such
an environment eventually has to be exited.
The result?
Post 2008 there has been explosive growth in the PCP parc with the manufacturers
offering exceptional three and four year finance packages to new car buyers. If
would-be buyers had an retailable trade-in, then all the better as the used car market
badly needed the supply.
In market terms, there is a parc of perhaps three-quarters of a million cars being
provided through personal contract hire schemes which will return to the used car
market over the next two to three years.
Many of these owners will have had a new car for the first time. Psychologically
during that period they may well have demoted the car from a ‘capital spend’ item in
the household to ‘white good’ status. Now that new car prices are generally quoted
as a monthly payment rather than a one off capital sum, will new car buyers be happy
to continue these monthly payments and take a new replacement car or will they
return to the nearly-new? The impact of this phenomenon may take time to flush
through the market.
Potential impact on used car market?
It is important to try to predict the impact of such a possible step change in the
market and identify potential outcomes so contingencies might be put in place if the
implications are negative.
The immediate impact might be twofold;
•
There may be a continued demand for new cars as those historic nearly-new car
buyers desert their previous buying habits and buy a new car for the second
time.
•
An over-supply of younger used cars could be created as the usual buyers are
buying new. Manufacturers, dealers and used car retailers will need to be able to
recycle without impacting on used car prices.
A critical task of the used car industry may be to bring forward a significant element
of the traditional ‘second time used car buyer’ to become a ‘first time used car buyer’
to fill that vacuum created by those who have switched to new cars. The numbers
involved over 3-4 years may not be huge by industry standard and a recovering
economy may give part of the target buyers confidence to acquire the higher quality
units.
Other forecasts have suggested the market will be well able to absorb the apparent
increase in younger used cars coming to market. However, for that to be the case,
the economy will need to continue to improve and the used car market have the
increased capacity to absorb these incremental units.
70
The majority will come into franchised dealers as trade-ins and in a variety of
condition, mileage and quality as well as specification. Thus the choices may be
relatively limited in terms of preparing the best for stock, if they match local needs, or
auctioning the remainder.
If parts of the market look as if they may have excess units returned, those sent to
auction units may well be moved to different parts of the country where used car
demand patterns are different. The auction houses and OEM supported closed
auctions may well have an important role to play in this market transition.
Transitional or strategic change?
Whether one is talking a one-off step change or whether this is a transitional change
that may flush easily through the system is open to debate. The important issue is to
be aware of the signs and be ready to respond to them.
The availability of cheap money will clearly be an important factor as will the potential
opportunity of excess vehicle supply if EU new car markets do not recover. Equally
important will be the rate of domestic economic recovery and ongoing expectations
of stability.
If the step change to a group of traditional nearly-new used car buyers moving to new
cars with finance does take place and continues to the second and third car, there
could be ongoing industry and market changes beyond this paper.
Buyers have become more market savvy
Private new car buyers have become more market savvy and many have had the
taste of a new car of their own for the first time. Perhaps the car is losing at least part
of its aspirational status and purchased out of cash flow rather than with a capital
sum – borrowed or self-generated.
Will buyers follow that new car syndrome as part of an improving life-style or will they
feel the quality of used cars and the delightful experience of acquiring a used car at
least matches that of a new car – and respond accordingly?
71
The mantra that ‘economic recovery is here to stay’ is likely to be intensified by the
Conservatives, in particular, in the run-up to the May 2015 General Election. There is
no denying, however, expectations on the economic recovery are encouraging at the
time of writing.
Earlier in the report we discussed the expectations for a steady year-on-year growth
in GDP. Equally important, current forecasts also show a marked fall in
unemployment, and continued growth in new business start-ups and selfemployed
businesses.
The true drop in unemployment has become a somewhat controversial topic of late.
There has been a significant number of companies where wage levels and employee
hours have been cut. This allowed businesses to retain skilled staff until economic
recovery would ultimately lead to a shortage of skilled labour. These ‘slack hours’ will
be absorbed and put to productive use as recovery builds up rather than recruiting
additional staff.
Rise in LCV demand
The improving economic scene is giving a boost to the used LCV market, and small
and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) remain positive about future prospects. The
prospect of massive infrastructure projects such as HS2 which will also generate
thousands of construction jobs.
A-road improvement schemes and house building projects in the pipeline will serve to
improve confidence in small businesses serving the civil engineering and construction
industries. The building and associated trades are some of the biggest buyers of
used LCVs, so demand for LCVs is likely to remain strong for the foreseeable future.
Additionally, the continued growth in online shopping and home delivery services has
created another layer of increased LCV demand.
LCVs and the state of the economy
During the economic crisis, businesses reined back. Capital expenditure was slashed;
to focus on essentials and capital projects already in progress. New LCVs associated
with business growth were culled and planned expansion was invariably achieved by
keeping existing units longer.
New LCV registrations peaked at 338,000 in 2007 when the economy was in a period
of rapid growth – falling steeply thereafter to a 15-year low of 186,000 units in 2009 –
see overleaf.
72
UK new LCV registrations; 2000 - 2015
350
338
330
323
327
309
304
300
Supply Gap
289
271
266
260
Thousands of units
254
250
314
240
239
223
200
186
150
100
Source: SMMT
As a crude measure new LCVs not sold during recession and economic downturn,
and failing to enter the used LCV stock parc, are in the region of 400,000 units.
UK LCV parc, average age
Deterioration in the LCV parc can be seen both in terms of slowing overall growth and
the rising average age of vehicles.
UK LCV parc/average age 2007 - 2015
4.00
7.97
3.50
6.87
7.01
6.83
7.08
6.69
7.40
8.21
7.55
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
2.50
4.00
2.00
Average age
Millions Cars
3.00
3.00
2.00
1.50
1.00
3.39
3.42
3.45
3.47
3.51
3.52
1.00
3.60
3.69
3.76
0.00
Millions
Average age
73
The marked change in the LCV parc may have wider implications in terms of the
service requirements and quality of vehicles entering the used supply chain. The chart
below shows how the age profile of the LCV parc has changed since 2000, with
substantial growth in the number of older units on the roads in recent years.
LCV parc by age segment; 2000 - 2015
2000
1820
1719
1750
1617
1502
1500
1401
Thousand units
1,284 1,310
1250
1,143
1,168 1,162
1,140 1,151
1,322
1,175
1000
926
904
852
629
500
482
656
522
456
478
2000
2001
670
686
601
562
719
641
627
632
613
504
934
903
870
874
843
658
636
813
780
750
1319
1,239
745
851
687
656
732
617
686
644
629
717
764
607
593
566
552
460
473
490
501
2012
2013
400
250
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
0-2
2007
2008
3-5
2009
6-8
2010
2011
2014
2015
9 plus
Source: SMMT Buckingham
LCV parc 3-5 years/6-8 years; 2009 - 2015
The used LCV
1000
934
market is still
903
900
steep fall in new
LCV volumes
700
slow pace of
764
717
THousands
of recession and
843
813
800
following the onset
874
870
851
suffering from the
732
686
658
636
617
600
500
400
recovery
thereafter. The 3-5
300
year LCV parc
200
2009
tumbled 300,000
over five years to
2010
2011
3-5 years
2012
2013
2014
2015
6-8 years
636,000 units at
the end of 2013. Although volumes in this parc sector will begin to recover in 2014
and 2015 as higher new car volumes feed through – it will still be 200,000 units
below 2009’s record high figure.
Used LCV stock in the 6-8 year group has yet to feel the full brunt of the sharp drop
in new LCV volumes. From a high of 874,000 in 2012, this segment is destined to
tumble to 617,000 units by the end of 2015 – triggering difficulties for retailers and
businesses who rely on an adequate supply of used LCVs from this sector.
74
The low level of new LCV registrations has affected the country’s LCV franchises in
different ways. This following chart compares the size of the 5-year LCV parc at the
end of 2009 with that of 2013. This will have implications regarding the range of used
LCVs which will be available over the next few years
UK LCV 5-year LCV parc; 2009/2013 vs. 2004/2009
Citroen
Fiat
Ford
Isuzu
Iveco
Land Rover
Mercedes
Mitsubishi
Nissan
Peugeot
Renault
Renault Trucks
Toyota
Vauxhall
Volkswagen
-160,000
-140,000
-120,000
-100,000
-80,000
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
There were 395,000 fewer 0-5 year-old LCVs on the country’s roads at the end of
2013 than five years earlier. Some brands have clearly been more affected than
others with significant implications for customer retention on both the LCV sales and
service front for some time to come – and the supply of retailable used LCVs.
LCVs at auction
The charts overleaf shows how average LCV values at auction dropped steeply at the
height of the 2008 recession to a low of £2,772 in December 2008, recovering
strongly during the following year and breaking through the £5,000 mark in the
middle of 2013.
According to BCA, “Competition remains very strong for retail quality used stock, and
values for the best quality units remain exceptionally strong, typically outperforming
guide expectations by some considerable margin. Buyers particularly like LCVs with a
good useable specification or specialist equipment and there is always strong
demand for Lutons, dropsides and tippers.”
75
“However, vendors should also be aware that vehicles presented for sale with
damage, in poor colours or with excessive mileage need to be realistically valued if
they are to sell first time.”
Longer term value growth in the used LCV sector can be seen when comparing 2014
to 2012. Average values have risen by £1,181 (27.5%) over the 24 month period as
the shortage of good quality stock continues and demand increases as economic
conditions improve.
Average LCV auction values; 2008 - 2014
£6,000
£5,500
£5,399
£5,000
£4,789
£4,585
£4,272
£4,500
£4,146
£4,000
£3,764
£3,500
£3,117
£3,000
£2,500
Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May
Source: BCA
The SME sourcing implications from higher auction prices are strategic in that they
will form the basis of prices which franchised dealers and used LCV retailers will look
to achieve for their used LCVs – after preparation costs and mark-up is taken into
account.
LCV finance
The market has changed radically since the recession in that finance patterns for new
LCVs have changed significantly.
Indeed the ongoing used LCV supply gap may have been offset to an extent by the
growth of LCV funding. While not all SMEs would be able to afford finance deals for a
new LCV, given the rise in LCV auction prices, the purchase decision in terms of a
new or used vehicle has become more complex?
A new LCV with the associated warranty, current technology and operating
economics could be very tempting compared with a lower-specification, refurbished
used LCV. Total cost of vehicle availability may become the defining measure of the
future.
76
Figure 9 shows the way that the LCV finance fleet has changed over the past few
years with the market growth of contract hire. Other finance options, such as
contract purchase, finance lease and PCP, have also grown significantly.
LCV finance parc; 2008 - 2013
250,000
239,408
237,169
222,346
200,000
185,368
171,364
140,815
Units
150,000
100,000
85,374
67,652
66,823
56,516
50,000
36,693
42,997
36,328
24,265
16,975
26,513
13,897
16,073
5,772
8,070
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
Contract Hire
Fleet Management
Contract Purchase LCVs
Personal Contracts LCV
2012
2013
Finance Lease LCV
Source: BVRLA
It is interesting to see the LCV personal contract purchase fleet jump from virtually nil
in 2012 to nearly 14,000 units 12 months later – a sign that manufacturers are
extending car tactics into the new LCV market?
A number of implications arise for manufacturers, franchised dealers and SMEs from
the changes in finance options. As long as new LCV prices are comparatively low and
finance is aggressively priced, dealers and manufacturers are likely to seek to build
margin from their finance business.
Strategic issues for used LCV retailers
The used LCV industry will continue to evolve; of that there is no doubt, but what
strategic issues do players – whether intermediaries supplying used LCVs or endusers – need to consider;
The following may have longer term implications that need to be addressed;
•
How sustainable are the sources of used LCVs to match the volume, quality and
price requirements from buyer? How might vendors enhance their profile – or
does it need to change?
77
•
When did operators last address the new/used LCV mix in their operation –
whether selling such units or operating them? Given the change in used LCV
units coming to market – do they need to review their profile?
•
Given the UK economy is in a period of sustained recovery, what will be your LCV
capacity requirements – what product mix do operators need to fulfil
requirements – new, used or short-term rental? Have operators developed plans
to meet those needs?
•
The car market, new and used, has been transformed over the past four years by
cheap and aggressive finance products. What have been the implications of such
changes within the LCV sector? What opportunities have arisen? What might be
the implications of a rise in interest rates?
78
BCA is the UK and Europe’s largest vehicle marketplace, employing over 4,000 welltrained and highly motivated staff to deliver a wide range of services to buyers and sellers
of used vehicles. (bca.com)
BCA facilitates the transaction between the professional buyer and professional seller in the
wholesale used-vehicle market.
Buyers include car supermarkets, franchise dealers, independent dealers, light commercial
vehicle dealers and used-vehicle traders. As the largest used-vehicle marketplace BCA is
able to fulfil buyers sourcing needs due to our volume and diversity of stock.
Vendors include manufacturers, contract hire and leasing companies, rental companies,
finance houses, dealerships, traders and car buying services.
BCA has grown to become Europe’s leading used vehicle marketplace, selling 1 million
vehicles per annum. BCA acquired webuyanycar, the car buying service, in 2013 and
AutosOnShow.TV and Trade-Outs in 2014.
BCA have over 60 years operating experience of a multi-channel exchange that provides
an efficient and effective platform for matching vendors and buyers in the B2B used vehicle
market. Operating in 13 countries at over 200 physical locations, BCA consistently delivers
the best residual values and highest conversion for our vendors driven by the needs of our
buyer base, our multi-channel reach and operational excellence. We provide buyers with
the broadest choice of stock by volume, marque, grade, age and mileage through regular
sales programmes and both physical and digital channels. BCA fuels the exchange and is
committed to growing the marketplace for the benefit of its customers.
BCA offers a range of bespoke remarketing products and services to the used vehicle
sector.
BCA’s physical auction programme delivers volume and choice for buyers and speed,
efficiency and market leading returns for sellers. With BCA Live Online delivering even
more buying power, BCA Appraisal and Autograde ensures vehicles are accurately
appraised and graded, with BCA Assured powered by the AA building buyer confidence.
Underpinning this, BCA Logistics manages 1 million collections and deliveries in the UK,
with over 400k single moves annually and the acquisition of NKL in 2013 added driver,
storage and refurbishment capacity. Over 130,000 ‘end-of-life’ inspections are conducted
annually in the UK, making BCA Logistics a vital service provider to the UK vehicle industry.
BCA Smart Prepared provides a range of pre-sale preparation services to the remarketing
industry, valeting over 700,000 vehicles annually, as well as carrying out vehicle MOPs
(machine operated polishes), Smart Repairs, trade name deletions and mechanical and
bodyshop repairs.
79
BCA – Partnering with Buyers and Sellers to Power the Market
BCA sets the pace for online sales offering a choice of routes to market with Live Online,
Bid Now, Buy Now, and e-Auction meaning BCA is operating 24/7, 365 days a year. Key
E-Sales enablers include the award-winning cloud-based BCA Dealer Pro service, BCA
Video Appraisals and BCA Auction View, a sophisticated search engine that brings sellers
and buyers together in the digital space. BCA fully embraces mobile technology, allowing
our customers to trade on the move and pay online.
BCA’s market leading inventory management service, Fleet Control Monitor (FCM), is built
on robust, flexible technology offering control and transparency for volume fleet operators.
FCM integrates with existing systems and is adaptable for business needs, giving asset
owners visibility across the fleet, allowing forward planning and cost control.
BCA DocuSafe holds all relevant vehicle documents for volume fleet operators, such as V5
and MOT, meaning these valuable documents are stored safely, with backups, and can be
produced at short notice when required. The system stores over 300,000 documents,
with 440,000 document movements annually.
BCA Dealer Pro is a unique cloud based service developed specifically for retail dealers
with 3 modular components. Appraise Pro delivers consistent and objective appraisals via
mobile technology, powered by BCA Autograde, BCA Market Price delivers accurate real
time valuations using the UK’s largest used vehicle databank and Smart Sell offers a
seamlessly linked and integrated remarketing process for dealers to sell in the wholesale
market. BCA Dealer Pro integrates with other dealer systems, such as lead management
and provenance systems, to improve overall dealer efficiency, and enables all data
captured to be used in any sales channel.
BCA Partner Finance is the specialist buyer funding service, offering support to
independent car retailers, small car supermarkets and individual dealers who struggle to
secure financial support from the banks and other traditional lenders to fund their
purchases. BCA Partner Finance funds 100% of auction purchases including fees through
an affordable and flexible finance scheme, allowing smaller dealers to compete in the
wholesale market and helping to energise their retail business.
BCA offers a range of bespoke outsourced services, including Remarketing Managing
Partner, affinity sales/driver sales, stock market and fleet repatriation services, de-fleet
management, Pan-European remarketing partner, offsite sales programmes and logistics
partner.
BCA has listened to its customers and is focussing on delivering services that meet their
needs, whether they are a buyer or seller. By constantly measuring customer satisfaction
and benchmarking service levels, BCA works with its customers to deliver effective
outcomes in a highly competitive marketplace.
BCA delivers a connected marketplace
that fuels the exchange.
80
Statistical Data
This section of the Used Car Market Report includes data taken from the 2014 TNSBMRB International survey of 4,000 UK car owners, providing an insight into their
views and preferences in buying or owning a used car.
It also supplies background information on the Consumer Perspective and Regional
sections of the report, and allows readers to draw comparisons with their own views
and experience of the UK used car market.
NB All responses are percentages.
81
Statistical Data
Q How many cars are in your household?
Women
17-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
AB
C1
C2
D
E
One
Total
43%
43%
42%
27%
41%
46%
44%
47%
47%
40%
47%
49%
42%
27%
Two
21%
24%
19%
13%
21%
26%
30%
22%
16%
33%
21%
22%
14%
3%
5%
6%
5%
11%
1%
4%
8%
8%
2%
9%
5%
5%
2%
1%
31%
27%
34%
49%
36%
24%
18%
23%
36%
17%
28%
23%
42%
69%
Three or more
None
Men
51
Yorks &
Humb
50
North
West
38
West
Mids
40
East
Mids
42
East
Anglia
47
15
5
14
3
20
5
21
4
24
4
33
10
40
33
25
37
32
15
Scotland
North
One
39
Two
Three or more
None
65+
39
South
West
43
South
East
45
25
12
37
5
21
6
22
7
12
1
15
19
30
26
48
Wales
London
38
Q Have you bought a new or used car recently?
82
Total
Men
Women
17-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
AB
C1
C2
D
E
Yes, new in 2009 or earlier
3%
3%
3%
-
1%
3%
2%
5%
6%
4%
2%
3%
3%
1%
Yes, new in 2010
2%
2%
2%
-
0
3%
2%
3%
2%
2%
2%
1%
0
1%
Yes, new in 2011
2%
2%
3%
1%
2%
2%
2%
5%
2%
5%
1%
2%
1%
1%
Yes, new in 2012
2%
2%
2%
0
2%
2%
4%
3%
2%
3%
2%
2%
2%
1%
Yes, new in 2013
3%
4%
3%
1%
2%
4%
5%
3%
4%
5%
3%
2%
2%
1%
Yes, new in 2014
2%
3%
1%
2%
2%
3%
1%
2%
2%
3%
3%
1%
1%
0
Yes, used in 2009 or earlier
5%
5%
5%
1%
4%
3%
9%
7%
7%
5%
5%
6%
6%
3%
Yes, used in 2010
3%
3%
3%
3%
4%
4%
4%
1%
3%
4%
4%
3%
2%
0
Yes, used in 2011
4%
4%
3%
1%
4%
5%
7%
3%
2%
5%
3%
4%
4%
2%
Yes, used in 2012
5%
6%
5%
2%
6%
7%
8%
6%
3%
5%
7%
6%
4%
3%
Yes, used in 2013
9%
10%
8%
8%
9%
11%
14%
8%
5%
13%
8%
11%
5%
3%
Yes, used in 2014
6%
7%
5%
6%
8%
8%
6%
7%
3%
7%
4%
9%
5%
4%
No
55%
52%
58%
78%
57%
48%
40%
50%
60%
41%
56%
50%
65%
82%
Scotland
North
Yes, new in 2009 or earlier
3
3
Yorks &
Humb
3
North
West
-
West
Mids
1
East
Mids
3
East
Anglia
2
5
South
West
6
South
East
4
Yes, new in 2010
2
2
Yes, new in 2011
2
2
2
-
0
3
3
1
2
2
2
3
2
2
2
2
5
2
5
1
Yes, new in 2012
2
Yes, new in 2013
3
2
2
0
2
4
3
1
2
2
4
3
2
3
2
4
5
3
4
5
3
Yes, new in 2014
Yes, used in 2009 or earlier
2
3
1
2
5
5
5
1
2
3
1
2
2
3
3
4
3
9
7
7
5
5
Yes, used in 2010
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
1
3
4
4
Yes, used in 2011
4
4
3
1
4
5
7
3
2
5
3
Yes, used in 2012
5
Yes, used in 2013
9
6
5
2
6
7
8
6
3
5
7
10
8
8
9
11
14
8
5
13
8
Wales
London
2
Yes, used in 2014
6
7
5
6
8
8
6
7
3
7
4
No
55
52
58
78
57
48
40
50
60
41
56
Statistical Data
Q What most strongly influences the type of used car you would consider buying?
Personal experience of particular
make \ model
Views of friends or family
Internet shopping, consumer advice
sites
Test drive
Total
Men
Women
17-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
AB
C1
C2
D
E
28
28
28
14
26
28
40
37
19
36
27
26
22
8
26
22
30
30
32
31
23
19
18
25
29
24
26
24
16
17
15
18
22
18
18
13
6
17
20
14
11
11
16
16
16
17
20
16
17
15
12
18
19
12
13
13
11
14
7
11
14
12
10
10
5
12
9
12
7
10
Used car showroom\sites
Consumer reports \ programmes
(e.g. Which?, Watchdog)
10
11
9
8
11
9
16
6
12
11
9
10
14
10
10
10
10
9
10
10
11
12
8
9
15
8
4
5
Cars you see on the street
9
9
9
8
10
9
14
9
4
9
8
10
12
10
Motoring magazines
7
9
6
9
7
7
7
7
7
9
7
6
6
6
6
6
7
4
7
9
9
5
3
8
6
7
4
2
4
5
4
4
4
6
4
4
4
4
5
4
5
3
4
4
4
6
4
4
4
2
6
5
5
3
2
4
4
4
3
9
5
4
2
2
-
2
3
6
4
5
Car TV shows
4
5
2
8
4
3
3
2
1
4
4
2
4
6
Other
8
6
10
7
4
7
8
10
13
9
6
8
13
6
Franchised \ used car dealer
websites
Car manufacturer adverts
Advice from the selling franchised \
used car dealer
Social Media (i.e. Facebook,
Twitter)
Scotland
North
Yorks &
Humb
North
West
West
Mids
East
Mids
East
Anglia
Wales
South
West
South
East
London
24
40
31
28
24
40
37
34
27
27
13
18
28
28
27
33
31
19
28
26
28
19
14
-
17
15
16
24
15
9
12
18
21
16
15
15
11
18
19
34
14
16
17
11
6
11
7
15
10
9
21
12
13
11
9
Used car showroom\sites
Consumer reports \ programmes
(e.g. Which?, Watchdog)
16
18
8
5
8
8
18
11
9
10
13
10
9
12
15
11
11
14
2
6
11
7
Cars you see on the street
7
14
16
7
11
6
18
5
5
8
9
Motoring magazines
3
2
6
14
9
3
8
3
9
7
11
7
5
4
4
2
3
8
18
4
9
8
2
7
6
3
4
2
2
6
2
6
6
2
3
9
2
4
5
-
4
7
5
2
-
2
2
6
3
3
10
3
8
3
2
Car TV shows
4
4
3
2
7
4
11
-
1
4
2
Other
16
3
7
4
6
6
5
13
13
9
4
Personal experience of particular
make \ model
Views of friends or family
Internet shopping, consumer advice
sites
Test drive
Franchised \ used car dealer
websites
Car manufacturer adverts
Advice from the selling franchised \
used car dealer
Social Media (i.e. Facebook, Twitter)
83
Statistical Data
Q Which of the following will have a strong influence on the way you search for your car?
Total
Men
Women
17-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
AB
C1
C2
D
E
Price range
59
60
58
65
65
60
61
55
45
63
59
57
53
54
Brand (e.g. Ford BMW)
41
45
36
34
41
38
45
52
36
48
43
35
34
24
Model (e.g. Fiesta,)
Location (e.g. miles from
home, driving time.)
Variant (specification level)
35
34
35
26
37
36
42
35
29
37
37
33
31
25
21
22
19
20
23
22
24
20
15
19
24
20
26
12
17
17
17
13
14
18
23
14
19
20
15
18
14
15
Type of seller
11
10
13
8
11
11
17
9
11
13
11
10
9
13
52
Yorks &
Humb
64
North
West
61
West
Mids
55
East
Mids
57
East
Anglia
75
46
36
46
43
53
60
27
42
37
31
31
38
22
20
25
22
23
8
20
17
19
12
15
7
12
8
6
Scotland
North
Price range
61
Brand (e.g. Ford BMW)
38
Model (e.g. Fiesta,)
Location (e.g. miles from
home, driving time.)
Variant (specification level)
Type of seller
63
South
West
53
South
East
61
32
32
43
31
59
41
39
36
22
24
25
18
17
22
14
16
37
13
18
21
11
16
-
8
16
11
13
Wales
London
53
Q What were the crunch factors that affected your decision to buy your latest used car?
84
Total
Men
Women
17-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
AB
C1
C2
D
E
Price
37
38
37
51
43
44
30
24
38
36
41
31
51
31
36
36
36
17
31
38
45
38
36
44
38
31
24
31
Mileage (low)
25
24
26
12
33
20
30
19
27
24
28
24
22
20
Engine size
18
19
17
27
23
20
15
16
11
15
20
19
19
17
Body type
17
20
14
12
16
21
16
14
21
19
16
16
13
23
Age of the vehicle
17
17
16
12
17
15
18
21
15
21
16
13
16
12
Insurance group
12
13
10
37
8
14
10
8
3
7
16
13
11
11
Specification
11
14
7
14
6
7
13
11
16
14
6
13
6
17
Fuel option
11
12
9
-
16
16
8
10
7
8
10
12
14
13
Safety
9
6
12
11
8
9
15
5
3
11
8
8
11
3
Colour
7
6
8
8
5
5
9
8
6
6
11
5
4
3
31
Yorks &
Humb
41
North
West
40
West
Mids
55
East
Mids
33
East
Anglia
13
32
37
32
35
36
51
28
30
20
19
22
26
Engine size
17
9
24
10
24
Body type
8
20
26
15
Age of the vehicle
15
24
13
Insurance group
10
14
9
Scotland
North
Price
37
Mileage (low)
24
South
West
37
South
East
40
28
37
47
36
23
17
34
35
20
31
11
26
14
10
24
14
15
37
-
6
19
21
7
10
13
18
27
25
13
17
17
9
23
1
31
15
9
8
10
Wales
London
40
Specification
9
4
11
6
4
14
18
16
10
18
4
Fuel option
17
12
11
5
8
13
28
3
15
6
10
Safety
7
6
9
12
8
-
24
3
8
10
10
Colour
6
12
9
8
8
4
-
11
6
8
1
Statistical Data
Q What influenced your decision to buy your used car from that particular dealer?
Right car at best possible
price
Got a good deal on the car
Total
Men
Women
17-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
AB
C1
C2
D
E
39
42
36
42
24
48
48
39
32
52
33
28
41
38
26
28
24
42
29
19
28
24
23
19
27
38
23
22
Local and convenient
21
24
19
21
22
12
23
19
27
30
21
16
6
5
Could trade in my old car
Dealer reliable and
trustworthy
Have bought a used car from
them before
Easy negotiation, lack of sales
pressure
Staff friendly, helpful and
professional
Good aftersales service
19
18
19
17
21
24
16
19
17
19
21
16
18
11
18
19
17
17
18
17
25
8
17
21
23
11
7
19
15
16
14
-
14
5
18
20
18
10
19
15
24
8
14
15
13
25
16
14
18
10
8
15
20
9
4
4
13
15
11
18
9
13
14
10
14
16
12
9
19
10
11
13
9
-
20
4
16
7
9
15
11
7
7
9
Recommended by friend
9
13
4
6
13
13
9
3
8
7
8
11
13
13
Wide choice of vehicles
They had the car\make of car I
wanted
Offered a warranty or vehicle
had warranty
8
5
11
25
13
10
6
-
7
4
15
7
3
12
6
5
8
8
14
6
6
5
1
7
10
3
-
-
5
8
3
-
4
4
5
-
12
3
7
4
9
8
Scotland
North
Yorks &
Humb
North
West
West
Mids
East
Mids
East
Anglia
Wales
South
West
South
East
London
20
58
41
27
40
55
52
32
37
42
31
22
46
30
29
38
11
-
28
21
36
28
9
24
33
4
36
16
50
10
23
17
17
12
24
15
-
25
21
51
22
10
23
5
20
20
22
20
32
14
40
9
13
11
-
14
-
17
15
13
14
33
5
16
13
15
13
11
28
12
16
4
40
-
6
11
23
13
20
19
11
10
5
10
5
26
8
24
18
20
7
8
7
13
39
9
11
3
-
19
11
15
11
17
-
-
4
12
4
9
10
4
14
3
11
1
14
12
3
7
13
4
-
14
-
8
4
14
6
-
11
-
6
21
-
1
-
-
-
11
17
5
-
Right car at best possible
price
Got a good deal on the car
Could trade in my old car
Dealer reliable and
trustworthy
Local and convenient
Have bought a used car from
them before
Staff friendly, helpful and
professional
Offered a warranty or vehicle
had warranty
Wide choice of vehicles
Good aftersales service
Easy negotiation, lack of
sales pressure
Recommended by friend
They had the car\make of
car I wanted
Q What type of car did you last purchase?
Total
Men
Women
17-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
AB
C1
C2
D
E
Off road/4 x 4
5
6
5
1
3
7
8
5
2
6
6
5
1
3
Saloon
19
22
16
8
12
17
11
35
34
16
14
28
23
17
Estate
12
18
5
3
5
16
19
15
6
18
7
14
10
-
Hatchback
44
38
51
70
54
36
45
25
44
40
56
33
51
47
M.P.V/People carrier
8
5
11
3
13
11
7
5
5
8
10
4
8
18
Sports car/coupe
6
5
6
5
10
4
5
6
2
6
5
7
3
3
Prestige e.g. Jaguar
0
0
--
--
--
--
--
--
1
1
--
--
--
--
Micro/City Car
2
1
3
3
1
4
2
2
1
2
0
3
2
5
Other
3
4
2
2
1
3
3
6
4
4
1
4
2
5
85
Statistical Data
Q What type of car did you last purchase?
Off road/4 x 4
5
4
Yorks &
Humb
7
-
South
West
7
Saloon
31
14
15
10
24
23
28
28
21
14
12
Estate
11
11
10
14
14
9
17
7
12
9
18
Hatchback
33
56
44
55
46
37
30
36
48
49
38
M.P.V/People carrier
5
4
13
7
6
10
15
6
5
10
4
Sports car/coupe
6
5
5
4
5
6
9
14
5
4
2
Prestige e.g. Jaguar
--
--
2
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
Micro/City Car
1
-
-
2
-
3
-
4
-
6
1
Other
8
6
3
4
-
3
-
5
-
2
8
Scotland
North
North
West
5
West
Mids
4
East
Mids
10
East
Anglia
-
Wales
South
East
3
London
13
Q Which of these reasons influenced you to buy a used car rather than a new car?
Total
Men
Women
17-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
AB
C1
C2
D
E
Couldn't afford a new car
32
34
31
45
39
36
33
25
18
21
37
34
40
34
Used better value for money
Lower depreciation with used
cars
Always buy used cars
22
24
19
17
24
25
25
24
16
32
21
21
14
8
15
17
12
4
14
15
24
18
13
20
18
12
9
6
12
14
10
7
10
13
16
16
11
14
12
13
12
6
Needed a car quickly
More choice when buying a
used car
6
6
6
9
6
6
8
4
4
7
7
7
7
1
4
5
3
2
4
5
5
3
3
4
4
5
5
2
34
Yorks &
Humb
34
North
West
33
West
Mids
37
East
Mids
30
East
Anglia
24
21
17
19
14
19
32
10
15
19
14
16
27
7
16
10
12
12
6
7
4
3
8
3
4
3
1
4
Scotland
North
Couldn't afford a new car
25
Used better value for money
Lower depreciation with used
cars
Always buy used cars
Needed a car quickly
More choice when buying a
used car
28
South
West
40
South
East
30
49
19
22
26
11
38
8
16
14
4
15
6
9
16
14
11
8
12
2
8
7
4
7
14
5
1
4
5
Wales
London
34
Q How likely is it you or a member of your family will buy a car in the next year?
86
Total
Men
Women
17-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
AB
C1
C2
D
E
Certainly will
4
4
3
8
6
4
3
2
0
3
6
4
3
0
Quite likely
10
11
9
12
11
11
12
11
5
12
12
11
8
3
50:50 chance
8
9
8
12
12
8
10
9
3
8
10
10
7
5
Unlikely
Certainly not in the next 12
months
Won't be buying a car in the
future
Don't Know
25
26
24
24
29
27
29
26
17
29
29
24
21
13
18
19
17
16
12
22
19
18
18
24
14
19
17
10
33
29
36
25
27
25
27
32
54
21
27
30
41
65
3
2
4
4
3
2
1
3
4
2
3
3
4
3
Statistical Data
Q How likely is it you or a member of your family will buy a car in the next year?
4
Yorks &
Humb
2
North
West
3
West
Mids
1
East
Mids
6
East
Anglia
20
7
11
8
11
13
6
5
10
7
10
5
24
9
34
17
25
16
19
13
19
18
40
54
28
43
3
2
2
2
Scotland
North
Certainly will
1
Quite likely
8
50:50 chance
8
Unlikely
Certainly not in the next 12
months
Won't be buying a car in the
future
Don't Know
1
South
West
4
South
East
3
12
14
9
9
7
6
9
11
9
31
19
17
25
27
32
26
21
28
22
16
9
35
19
26
30
23
31
31
0
-
-
5
3
3
7
Wales
London
3
When you come to buy a car is it most likely to be:
Total
Men
Women
17-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
AB
C1
C2
D
E
Used car, petrol
38
38
37
54
36
35
38
33
28
35
40
38
37
41
Used car, diesel
27
30
23
18
32
32
31
24
19
26
25
30
29
25
Used car, hybrid
3
4
2
3
4
4
3
5
1
2
5
3
3
5
Used car, alternative fuel
Nearly new (up to 9 months
old) used car, petrol
old) used car, diesel
New car, petrol
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
3
1
2
0
1
2
1
3
3
4
3
3
2
4
3
5
5
3
2
3
1
3
2
3
1
4
5
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
-
6
5
8
6
3
4
6
8
11
9
6
4
6
4
New car, diesel
4
5
4
2
5
3
6
7
4
5
6
4
2
2
New car, hybrid
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
--
--
0
1
0
--
--
Don't Know
14
11
17
11
11
14
8
12
27
13
11
16
15
20
33
Yorks &
Humb
39
North
West
37
West
Mids
34
East
Mids
35
East
Anglia
41
28
South
West
40
South
East
45
18
20
29
29
36
30
28
30
26
2
4
2
5
5
1
21
-
5
3
2
Used car, alternative fuel
old) used car, petrol
old) used car, diesel
New car, petrol
2
-
1
2
1
8
-
-
1
1
1
2
6
2
7
-
4
4
-
5
4
3
2
1
4
4
3
2
2
8
3
5
1
2
7
3
New car, diesel
6
11
8
6
6
7
4
10
3
7
4
4
5
7
6
6
6
-
4
New car, hybrid
1
2
--
--
--
--
1
--
--
--
--
2
Don't Know
13
23
13
15
13
9
11
14
13
10
21
Scotland
North
Used car, petrol
35
Used car, diesel
26
Used car, hybrid
Wales
London
35
Q If low or 0 interest (finance) is available would you consider buying a new car instead of a used
one next time you change?
Total
Men
Women
17-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
AB
C1
C2
D
E
Certainly
12
11
13
11
13
11
13
13
9
15
12
9
11
8
Quite likely
23
23
24
30
23
28
24
20
13
26
25
23
18
14
Unlikely
25
27
22
27
28
25
25
21
24
25
26
24
24
27
Certainly not
32
33
31
23
28
28
34
38
42
27
31
36
38
33
Don't know
8
6
10
9
8
8
3
8
12
7
6
8
9
18
87
Statistical Data
Q If low or 0 interest (finance) is available would you consider buying a new car instead of a
used one next time you change?
12
25
Yorks &
Humb
11
24
North
West
15
24
West
Mids
12
21
East
Mids
15
23
East
Anglia
49
26
18
19
15
32
13
24
38
37
35
29
44
6
7
9
11
6
6
Scotland
North
Certainly
Quite likely
10
34
Unlikely
Certainly not
Don't know
6
22
South
West
8
20
South
East
14
19
26
30
23
27
37
21
36
38
32
19
4
6
11
8
8
Wales
London
15
21
Q If you buy a car in the future, where do you think you will get it from?
Franchised dealer (part
exchange)
Private sale
Men
Women
17-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
AB
C1
C2
D
E
27
28
25
26
23
24
30
31
28
34
26
24
22
13
23
27
18
26
29
28
22
20
7
19
22
27
28
26
Franchised dealer (buy direct)
Independent used vehicle
dealer (buy direct)
Internet trader
22
21
24
12
25
17
28
24
30
27
25
20
12
13
9
9
10
11
9
7
13
7
10
10
9
10
10
7
9
11
6
16
12
12
4
5
3
8
8
10
8
9
Family or friend
dealer (part exchange)
Car supermarket
7
6
8
14
8
9
5
4
2
6
8
4
9
14
7
6
7
2
5
6
12
7
9
7
8
6
7
3
6
6
5
4
8
7
7
5
2
7
5
5
5
4
Auction
3
4
3
4
6
5
2
2
1
3
3
4
4
4
Other
4
3
5
7
4
3
3
5
5
4
2
7
6
4
Don't Know
12
10
14
14
11
10
7
10
20
8
13
12
11
23
Franchised dealer (part
exchange)
Private sale
88
Total
Scotland
North
Yorks &
Humb
North
West
West
Mids
East
Mids
East
Anglia
Wales
South
West
South
East
London
33
27
18
26
21
42
4
31
21
33
25
12
13
22
34
23
22
27
16
24
24
24
Franchised dealer (buy direct)
dealer (buy direct)
Family or friend
22
26
30
28
19
19
32
28
21
20
15
4
14
6
15
19
5
-
3
17
9
7
6
3
7
12
5
11
16
1
4
11
11
Internet trader
dealer (part exchange)
Car supermarket
5
3
3
13
4
4
12
2
7
9
12
5
8
8
5
9
5
-
17
12
7
1
-
5
4
4
6
9
6
5
6
6
7
Auction
2
2
2
6
1
3
-
3
4
6
3
Other
10
3
4
2
2
3
5
4
3
5
4
Don't Know
11
16
15
9
13
6
6
15
14
9
16
Statistical Data
Q If economic recovery continues, what might you look for when you change car?
Car with better fuel
consumption
Car with lower road tax
Total
Men
Women
17-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
AB
C1
C2
D
E
21
20
22
23
24
23
24
20
15
20
19
25
24
18
19
20
18
22
19
22
19
20
14
17
20
18
29
14
Same type of car
18
18
18
11
12
19
24
20
20
21
18
19
13
13
Best possible purchase price
14
16
13
12
12
12
19
17
11
16
15
13
14
11
Car with lower CO2
Car with lower maintenance
costs
Smaller car
12
13
11
10
13
14
14
12
8
12
15
9
11
6
10
10
9
12
10
8
8
14
9
9
11
12
9
4
9
9
10
9
7
11
9
8
12
10
9
9
6
8
Used car instead of new car
Best possible part--exchange
price
Bigger car
Higher specification\
performing car
Low interest finance
9
9
9
6
9
8
7
14
7
9
8
7
13
10
8
8
7
1
10
7
12
5
10
7
8
10
7
8
7
6
7
9
15
9
5
3
1
5
7
7
10
6
6
8
4
9
9
5
7
3
2
6
6
7
2
3
5
4
6
9
3
8
5
3
2
5
7
2
3
3
New car instead of used car
5
5
4
3
6
4
6
4
4
6
4
4
4
3
Car with lower depreciation
4
5
3
1
3
6
4
4
4
5
6
3
2
2
2
3
1
2
2
3
2
3
0
4
1
2
1
0
Car with better fuel
consumption
Car with lower road tax
Scotland
North
Yorks &
Humb
North
West
West
Mids
East
Mids
East
Anglia
Wales
South
West
South
East
London
17
18
23
22
28
21
47
17
20
18
15
14
17
14
21
19
20
19
49
32
16
13
Same type of car
12
17
30
13
15
24
25
17
22
19
8
Best possible purchase price
16
9
20
12
12
12
14
11
13
16
15
Car with lower CO2
Car with lower maintenance
costs
Smaller car
15
4
11
13
11
10
16
5
11
13
14
7
12
12
9
14
11
5
8
5
11
11
5
3
7
10
12
9
20
6
8
12
7
Used car instead of new car
Best possible part--exchange
price
Bigger car
Higher specification\
performing car
Low interest finance
17
11
9
6
8
6
13
7
9
8
6
11
7
11
6
5
8
18
9
9
5
7
6
10
9
8
5
8
3
5
6
7
5
8
5
4
3
6
6
11
3
6
8
3
10
-
2
5
6
2
16
5
6
3
4
New car instead of used car
9
1
2
7
3
4
9
6
3
5
4
Car with lower depreciation
4
3
4
2
6
5
-
3
4
5
5
3
-
2
3
2
3
-
1
1
3
2
89
Statistical Data
Q Would you consider selling your car directly for cash from any of the following channels?
Total
Men
Women
17-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
AB
C1
C2
D
Auto Trader
20
24
15
28
30
25
19
18
3
20
22
20
15
9
Ebay
Local newspaper
advert\website
Franchised dealer
12
16
8
16
16
19
12
8
3
9
12
17
12
10
8
9
7
4
9
12
5
8
8
10
6
8
11
3
8
7
9
6
13
6
6
12
4
10
9
5
4
4
Used Car Trader
7
8
7
6
8
10
9
9
3
7
8
7
12
4
Small local garage
webuyanycar.com or similar
service
Used car supermarket
Non--franchised used car
dealer
Auction
National newspaper
advert\website
No
7
5
9
3
6
8
6
8
9
7
7
8
8
3
4
5
2
6
3
3
5
6
2
5
5
4
1
-
3
2
4
1
4
4
5
2
2
3
4
3
2
1
2
3
2
5
1
1
3
2
4
4
2
2
3
2
2
3
1
6
4
2
1
1
1
3
2
2
2
-
2
2
1
1
2
2
2
-
2
1
2
2
1
2
45
42
48
39
32
40
46
46
63
43
44
47
45
57
Don't know
8
7
10
11
9
6
9
10
9
8
9
8
9
11
North
West
18
West
Mids
15
East
Mids
24
East
Anglia
35
Scotland
North
Auto Trader
6
23
Yorks &
Humb
23
Ebay
Local newspaper
advert\website
Franchised dealer
9
9
10
7
11
18
19
2
9
9
3
15
8
7
1
8
9
7
Used Car Trader
5
6
2
7
5
Small local garage
webuyanycar.com or similar
service
Used car supermarket
Non--franchised used car
dealer
Auction
National newspaper
advert\website
4
6
8
9
4
4
3
1
-
3
1
No
Don't know
E
9
South
West
15
South
East
23
15
11
14
12
37
11
5
4
4
6
5
5
11
11
5
7
14
7
11
7
12
6
4
16
4
9
8
3
3
8
8
4
3
2
3
3
2
5
2
4
5
-
5
3
6
1
2
5
1
1
-
5
3
3
3
-
1
4
5
4
-
-
1
2
3
6
-
4
2
1
1
-
1
2
1
0
71
45
48
48
43
46
33
44
44
42
35
-
15
8
11
8
5
-
15
11
8
12
Wales
London
24
Q Which, if any, of the following reasons explains why you would consider selling your car for
cash?
A better price than trading
in the car
Negotiate a better deal on
new/used car
No longer needed a car
To realise part of the car's
value in cash\part as
deposit
Could not afford to run or
maintain car
Needed cash for household
expenses\other reasons
Using alternative forms of
transport instead of a car
90
Total
Men
Women
17-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
AB
C1
C2
D
E
42
43
42
41
41
51
44
36
35
43
46
42
31
36
37
37
37
42
44
28
35
43
34
38
43
27
41
36
16
14
18
16
15
10
16
19
23
15
17
16
18
7
13
11
16
4
9
20
14
17
8
16
10
13
10
11
6
6
6
11
9
4
6
1
3
4
7
6
5
13
4
3
4
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
4
4
4
6
4
3
4
2
5
3
5
1
4
3
2
6
5
2
Statistical Data
Q Which of the following reasons explains why you would consider selling your car for cash?
Scotland
North
Yorks &
Humb
North
West
West
Mids
East
Mids
East
Anglia
Wales
South
West
South
East
London
42
31
55
48
60
43
68
48
35
41
33
37
38
42
39
39
40
36
90
28
26
30
16
27
6
22
7
19
10
5
9
15
20
13
12
15
12
22
13
6
30
13
8
13
6
16
-
-
5
14
1
8
11
3
3
4
-
-
3
5
3
1
-
15
4
2
4
2
-
2
-
4
3
-
5
8
3
A better price than trading in
the car
Negotiate a better deal on
new/used car
No longer needed a car
To realise part of the car's
value in cash\part as deposit
Could not afford to run or
maintain car
Needed cash for household
expenses\other reasons
Using alternative forms of
transport instead of a car
Q Would you consider any other alternative to owning a car outright?
Total
Men
Women
17-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
AB
C1
C2
D
E
Public Transport
9
9
8
15
4
6
7
6
14
9
7
8
10
12
Company Car
4
5
2
6
8
3
3
2
-
5
4
3
2
-
Bicycle
4
6
1
10
3
5
3
2
1
4
5
3
3
1
Short-- term lease
3
2
3
1
1
3
3
2
3
3
3
2
1
2
Motorbike
2
3
1
5
1
2
3
1
-
1
2
3
2
2
1
0
2
2
1
3
1
1
-
2
0
1
1
-
Car rental
1
1
0
2
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
-
1
Car Club
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
-
-
1
1
1
1
-
Other
16
17
15
12
15
15
14
20
16
19
14
12
17
20
None
60
55
65
41
61
60
66
59
62
55
60
65
62
57
Don't know
4
4
4
9
4
3
2
7
4
4
5
5
3
7
2
Yorks &
Humb
3
North
West
11
West
Mids
13
East
Mids
8
East
Anglia
9
2
4
4
1
5
4
-
-
4
8
5
2
Short-- term lease
4
3
3
2
1
Motorbike
5
-
1
2
2
-
1
Scotland
North
Public Transport
8
Company Car
Bicycle
4
South
West
9
South
East
8
15
2
2
3
4
10
2
6
1
3
3
4
5
3
2
1
3
-
7
1
-
1
6
2
-
-
7
3
-
1
1
Wales
London
14
Car rental
-
-
1
0
1
2
-
1
-
1
3
Car Club
1
2
0
1
-
-
-
-
1
-
5
Other
47
2
10
7
12
14
26
2
11
24
8
None
34
85
71
64
59
68
26
79
67
55
53
-
4
5
8
2
2
-
5
6
5
6
Don't know
91
Statistical Data
Q How do you think technology will affect motoring in the next five years?
Electric cars more
commonplace
Safety will improve
visual/audio aids
Cars constantly connected
to the internet
Insurance decrease
because of telematics
Passengers occupied with
in-car entertainment
planning technology
Electric cars more
commonplace
Safety will improve
visual/audio aids
Cars constantly connected to
the internet
Insurance decrease because
of telematics
Passengers occupied with incar entertainment
planning technology
92
Total
Men
Women
17-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
AB
C1
C2
D
E
49
53
45
39
45
48
54
55
49
58
48
42
51
34
47
52
41
44
47
47
52
52
38
54
43
45
41
42
34
38
29
35
30
39
34
36
29
34
35
36
30
21
29
30
28
24
27
29
34
34
23
34
29
26
26
17
17
22
12
15
18
24
19
14
11
22
16
17
13
6
16
16
15
17
20
18
14
16
10
18
12
17
16
13
15
19
11
10
14
17
16
15
15
16
15
16
12
11
14
13
14
15
18
18
14
10
7
13
13
17
13
10
7
8
5
6
8
9
5
4
7
7
5
9
6
5
46
Yorks &
Humb
56
North
West
56
West
Mids
51
East
Mids
65
East
Anglia
66
53
South
West
56
South
East
39
58
38
49
41
44
54
66
44
44
44
42
30
35
35
41
40
33
50
27
37
30
22
24
15
32
28
33
38
45
27
25
31
17
17
10
21
14
17
18
33
11
20
16
16
18
14
23
19
12
14
19
13
21
18
23
13
13
18
15
20
12
9
20
14
12
10
12
12
8
15
15
25
18
11
15
12
9
9
4
3
4
15
6
5
11
6
5
7
Scotland
North
46
Wales
London
26
Research
The BCA Used Car Market Report 2014 is based on information from the Society of
Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) and many other trade and industry sources
in the UK and across Europe.
In addition, a consumer survey was carried out by TNS-BMRB International, based on
interviews with 4,000 respondents, representative of the UK adult population aged 17
years and over. Fieldwork for this research was undertaken in June 2014.
The Used Car Market Report was written and produced for BCA Vehicle Remarketing
by Emeritus Professor Peter N C Cooke and the automotive team at The Centre for
Automotive Management, University of Buckingham Business School, The University
of Buckingham, Buckingham, MK18 1EG
Copyright BCA 2014
Any part of this report may be reproduced for non-commercial purposes subject to
acknowledgement.
Any organisation wishing to use this report – in part or in whole – for commercial
gain, should firstly obtain permission from the Public Relations Department at BCA.
Telephone: +44 (0) 1252 878555
Web site: bca.co.uk
E-mail: [email protected]
93

The Used Car Market Report 2014

Transcription

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