Solar PV: Latest Developments

Transcription

Solar PV:
Latest Developments
from an Energy Forum in Switzerland
Presentation to:
Contractors’ Breakfast Series
March 16, 2016
Doug MacLean
Preamble
Source: http://www.swissvistas.com/image-files/switzerland-maps.jpg
Energy Forum
1. Keynote/Background
2. Photovoltaic (PV) Developments
3. Beyond PV
(Adaptive Building Skins, ETS, PVT,
Solar Thermal and Heat Pumps)
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
PV in the North
PV Market Changes
PV Policy Considerations
Summary
What You Can Do Now
"Electric power is everywhere present in
unlimited quantities and can drive the
world's machinery without the need of coal,
oil, gas, or any other of the common fuels.”
- Nikola Tesla
(1856 – 1943)
Source: http://freeenergynews.com/Directory/Quotes/
Drivers for the Conference
• European Directive 2010/31/EU
(Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD))
• Horizon 2020 Program
• National and Local Programs
Drivers for the Conference (continued)
• Renewables Directive 2009/28EC
20% Renewable Energy by 2020
– National Renewable Energy Action Plans
(NREAP)
2. PV Developments -- Efficiency
PV Cell Efficiencies Source: NREL
Source: Proceedings, A3-2: Photovoltaics in architecture: separating facts from fiction
Dieter Moor, ertex solartechnik, Austria, p. 135.
Source: http://blog.thingswedontknow.com/2015/09/the-inspirational-butterfly.html
Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/600922/first-solars-cells-break-efficiencyrecord/, March 3, 2016.
2. PV Developments -- Cost
Source: http://www.treehugger.com/renewable-energy/amazing-chart-shows-again-whysolar-power-will-take-over-world.html.
Falling costs & rising efficiency boost solar
cells sales, even as fossil fuel prices fall
Sources:
http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/business/oil-price-rise-alternative-energy1.3423661
Small is Good; Big is Good.
Sources: http://cleantechnica.com/2016/02/22/questioning-solar-economies-scale-2015-edition/
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/ugc/blogs/2016/02/questioning_solaren.html
2. PV Developments – BIPV
PV panels can
cover the sides
and roof of
buildings
Source: Proceedings Slides, p. A164.
2. PV Developments -- BIPV
Using Building
Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV)
on over 75% of the
façade resulted in
minimized energy
needs and increased
comfort.
Source: Proceedings, A1-1: Benefits of translucent building envelope made of DSCintegrated glassblocks Luisa Pastore, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Italy, pp. 18-20.
“Already today, [in Europe],
the investment of PV in façades
is a profitable alternative
to non-productive conventional
façades.” – Swiss study
Source: Proceedings, p. 212
Source: Proceedings, p. 1439
Source: Proceedings, A5-3: Strategies to increase the deployment of PV in façades
Christian Renken, CR Energie Sarl, Collombey, Switzerland
2. PV Developments -- Supply
The monthly yield of BIPV is getting more balanced…
Source: Proceedings Slides, p. A161 (A3-2: Building integrated PV
applications, Dominik Müller, Solvatec AG, Switzerland).
Sources: Proceedings, A4-4: Transformation of a historical coal bunker into a solar power
station using multi-colored BIPV, Kerstin Müller, baubüro in situ ag, Basel, Switzerland,
Proceedings Slides: p. A156.
Source: Proceedings Slides, p. 188
Source: Proceedings
Slides, p. A166
Source: Proceedings
Slides, p. 189
Source: Proceedings Slides A170
Source: Proceedings, A3-2: Photovoltaics in architecture: separating facts from fiction
Dieter Moor, ertex solartechnik, Austria, p. 135 – 142.
2. PV Developments – Bifacial PV
The monthly yield of solar cells can be
raised by using bifacial PV cells …
Source: http://thefraserdomain.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/hitachi_bifacial.jpg
2. PV Developments -- Shading
Source: Proceedings Slides, p. 217.
Source: Proceedings, A4-1: A size-flexible, shade robust photovoltaic system for integration in roofs and
façades, Josco Kester, ECN Solar Energy, Netherlands, p. 154.
2. PV Developments – Cost
A prototype prefab 6 kW solar farm installed
… in four (4) minutes, reducing cost.
Sources:
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/innovation-pre-fab-solar-farms-could-slash-cost-of-big-solar-98806
2. PV Developments – Cost
This is how they (likely) did it.
Sources:
http://www.renovagen.com/?services=rollable-pv-array
http://www.renovagen.com/
3. Beyond PV -- Adaptive Building Skins
Sources:
E2-1: Energy Frames - A new technology for intelligent glazed façades
Frederik V. Winther, Rambøll, Copenhagen, Denmark
E3-2: Monitoring energy and comfort performance of transparent adaptive façades L. Bianco,
Valerio Verso, Valentina Serra, Politecnico di Torino, Italy
3. Beyond PV – ETS
In this simulation,
building inhabitants
consciously shift
high loads to night
time (e.g., using ETS
or batteries) or to
peak availability
periods thus
improving operation
and reducing cost.
Source: F4-2: Simulation of captive use for building integrated photovoltaics (BIPV)
Samuel Summer Matter, Head Engineering Department, BE Netz AG, Switzerland
3. Beyond PV -- PVT
Combined PV and Solar Thermal (PVT) panels are showing
significant promise over using the technologies separately.
Source: Proceedings, A1-2: Glazed photovoltaic-thermal component for building envelope
structure Tomas Matuska, Czech Technical University, Prague, Czech Republic, p. 30.
4. PV in the North
Whitehorse has more yearly PV potential
(960 kWh/kW) than Berlin, Germany (848 kWh/kW)
where PV panels are widely used…
Sources: http://pv.nrcan.gc.ca/index.php?m=r and personal communication from Shane Wolffe
4. PV in the North
Lower ambient temperatures can improve winter
energy production -- 25% at -25˚C; better at -40˚C
.
Sources:
http://www.greenenergyfutures.ca/episode/solar-myths, para. 8.
http://www.thegreenage.co.uk/article/the-impact-of-temperatureon-solar-panels/
4. PV in the North
Because of work done here, we know vertical panel
installation can improve winter electricity production
… by about 10 to 20% compared to a 45 – 55˚ tilt.
.
Source: Unpublished data for Yukon, S. Andre.
4. PV in the North
This is confirmed by some initial data from solar panels in Tagish, Yukon.
Source: Personal Communication, Anne Middler, Feb. 17, 2016.
4. PV in the North
We now know that clearing snow can improve winte
production slightly, particularly for panels installed at
a low angle. Panels installed vertically rarely, if ever,
require snow removal.
Source: http://www.nait.ca/docs/NAIT_Reference_Array_Report_March_31_2015.pdf, page 5.
4. PV in the North
The difference in albedo from dry concrete or asphalt (~0.2) to
fresh snow on the ground (~0.8) can boost PV output by 5-10%
Source: https://pvpmc.sandia.gov/modeling-steps/1-weather-design-inputs/plane-of-arraypoa-irradiance/calculating-poa-irradiance/poa-ground-reflected/albedo/
4. PV in the North
We know that vertical rails can expedite snow
load shedding to improve winter production.
Source:
http://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2016/01/mounting-solar-panels-to-vertical-railscan-encourage-snow-shedding-says-whitepaper/.
4. PV in the North
Source: Shane
Andre, personal
communication
Production vs Tilt and Orientation
Whitehorse, Yukon (60.7 ˚ N)
Barcelona, Spain (41.3˚ N)
Production for Whitehorse,
and vertical PVs vs a 50˚ tilt angle:
North: 29%
East 59%
West 55%
South: 81%
Source: Proceedings, p. 208.
Aqaba, Jordan (29.5 ˚ N)
5. PV Market Changes
Source: Proceedings Slides, PVPS Task 15 Acceleration of BIPV, p. A257.
See also: http://cleantechnica.com/2016/02/10/global-solar-pv-pipeline-now-exceeds200-gw-ihs/
Source:
At left: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_onshore_wind_farms
At right: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_by_country
Source: http://www.techinsider.io/map-shows-solar-panels-to-power-the-earth-2015-9
Use of coal is under fire as: “easily the dirtiest of
the fossil fuels” in terms of GHGs, and
“The greatest threat to global health …” – WHO
Sources: http://ipolitics.ca/2016/02/11/time-to-kick-the-coal-habit-canada/, February 11, 2016.
There is growing environmental pressure to
leave fossil fuels, such as coal, in the ground
Source: http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/unburnable-carbon-why-we-need-toleave-fossil-fuels-in-the-ground
China reports:
Coal now not indispensible
for power generation.
Source: http://snip.ly/7m761#http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/base-load-power-amyth-used-to-defend-the-fossil-fuel-industry-96007, March 2, 2016
See also: http://www.raponline.org/press-release/new-rap-analysis-shows-freshsolutions-to-renewable-energyduck?utm_source=ZohoCampaigns&utm_campaign=US+RAPPORT+March+2016_201603-02&utm_medium=email
The Tangshanpeng Wind Farm in northern China
China’s CO2 emissions fell in 2015 due to
a decline in coal, boost in renewables
Source: http://e360.yale.edu/
Australia: Queensland
Energy Minister says
rooftop solar will soon
be the biggest source
of electricity in the
state.
Source: http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/qld-energy-minister-says-rooftopsolar-will-soon-be-biggest-generator-45057, February 19, 2016.
Queensland energy minister Mark Bailey
The world is now adding more capacity for
renewable power each year than coal, natural
gas, and oil combined
Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-14/fossil-fuels-just-lost-therace-against-renewables
Wind and solar provided all new U.S.
electric capacity in January, 2016.
Source:
http://www.utilitydive.com/news/wind-and-solar-provided-all-new-us-electric-capacity-in-january/415195/
In the U.S., there are twice as many
solar workers as coal miners
Source: http://fortune.com/2015/01/16/solar-jobs-report-2014/
Grid Reliability Is Increasing with Renewables
Sources:
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/02/01/3743082/renewables-revolution/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-12/germany-proves-lifewith-less-fossil-fuel-getting-easier
Older nuclear power
plants are also being
phased out and
replaced with
renewable energy
Sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France
Wind power generated 140% of
Denmark's electricity daily demand on
at least one occasion.
Sources:
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/10/denmark-windwindfarm-power-exceed-electricity-demand
In Germany, renewable energy currently is
27 percent of gross electricity consumption
Source: http://thebulletin.org/can-germanys-renewable-energyrevolution-be-replicated-united-states9169
Renewables now provide over 94% of
Uruguay’s electricity
Sources:
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/03/uruguay-makesdramatic-shift-to-nearly-95-clean-energy?CMP=share_btn_fb
… and 99% of Costa Rica’s electricity.
Sources:
https://www.good.is/articles/2015-the-year-costa-rica-derived-99-percent-of-itselectricity-from-renewableenergy?utm_source=thedailygood&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=dailygood
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/costa-rica-renewable-energy-
World's biggest floating solar farm
powers up outside London
Sources:
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/feb/29/worlds-biggest-floatingsolar-farm-power-up-outside-london
Norway to build Europe's largest
onshore wind power project
Source:
http://www.gizmag.com/fosen-vind-largest-wind-power-project-europe/42059/
The first solar powered airport
in South Africa has opened
Sources:
https://www.facebook.com/guy.dauncey/posts/10153337076346516, February 29, 2016.
http://www.entrepreneur.com/slideshow/271820, March 5, 2016.
http://constructionreviewonline.com/2016/02/first-solar-powered-airport-south-africaopens/ , February 29, 2016.
Solar Thermal
Plant opened
near Ivanpah
in the Mojave
Desert
Dec. 31, 2013
Capacity: 392 MW
Source:
http://ecowatch.com/2014/02/14/worlds-largest-solar-thermal-plant-opens-forbusiness/
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=121544&p=irolnewsArticleNRG&ID=1899656
http://ecowatch.com/2014/12/04/rooftop-solar-outshine-solar-farms/
World’s Largest
Concentrated Solar
Thermal Plant
(CSP) opened in
Morocco
Capacity: 160 MW
500 MW when all
phases complete
Source: http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/08/africa/ouarzazate-morocco-solarplant/
Solar panels and installation are already
being offered for free in New Zealand
Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/67650722/Free-panels-place-solarpower-within-reach-for-kiwis
DirecTV has built a solar farm at one of its California offices. Its television
technicians now offer solar energy packages when visiting customers' homes
California invests in Clean Energy
Source: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/06/15/california-cleanenergy_n_7578810.html
California Giving Free Solar Panels
to Low-Income Families
Sources:
http://www.iflscience.com/environment/california-set-give-solar-panels-lowincome-families, May 27, 2015
https://www.facebook.com/groups/657584194344617?view=permalink&id=669
493639820339, January 27, 2016
http://www.gridalternatives.org/clients
US Rural Electric Co-ops are
investing in solar with USDA help
Sources:
http://www.vox.com/2016/2/26/11116230/rural-electric-co-ops-solar, Feb.26, 2016
https://www.facebook.com/groups/albertamicrogen/permalink/669446276491742/, Feb. 26, 2016
Ohio town has installed 3 MW
of solar cells and battery storage.
Sources: https://ilsr.org/small-ohio-town-to-feature-large-distributed-solar-and-storage/,
February 22, 2016
Stafford Hill Solar Farm near Rutland
City, VT has 2.5 MW of solar cells.
Sources:
http://www.grosolar.com/projects
https://ilsr.org/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2016/03/Report-Mighty-Microgrids-PDF-3_3_16.pdf
There is now a 2 MW solar farm in Alberta
Sources:
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10207675389015562&set=gm.995001933880372&type=3&theater
Colville Lake, NWT, now has solar panels
and batteries to allow the community to run
entirely on the sun’s energy in the summer.
Sources: http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/02/21/the-nwt-village-set-to-run-entirely-on-the-sunthis-summer.html/
Solar panels on the research centre and
visitor centre in Old Crow are part of the
community's plan to reduce its reliance on
fossil fuels.
Sources: http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/02/21/the-nwt-village-set-to-run-entirely-on-the-sunthis-summer.html/
http://yukon-news.com/news/old-crow-pushes-for-renewable-power/
http://kza.yk.ca/projects/
Yukon Energy has Invested in Clean Energy
Source:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/solarenergyintheyukon/permalink/76769977
6686279/
https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/site/public?name=YEC
Elon Musk has sold $1 billion of battery
storage devices, even before he had a
product, or built a factory.
Source: http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/this-battery-storagerevolution-could-happen-quicker-than-we-thought-70574
Now Elon Musk is building the
world’s biggest solar panel factory
Source: http://www.takepart.com/article/2014/06/17/now-elonmusk-building-worlds-solar-panel-factory
6. PV Policy Considerations
In some cases, EVs are now on parity with
conventional cars in terms of owner cost.
Source:
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/why-evs-will-make-solar-viable-withoutsubsidies-91738
Electric Vehicle Innovation is increasing …
Source: http://www.nationalobserver.com/2016/02/23/news/part-bike-part-carvelometro-take-cities-storm, Feb. 23, 2016.
… with applications in buses proving positive …
Sources: http://cleantechnica.com/2016/02/22/electric-buses-efficient-as-he-nrelfinds/, Feb. 22, 2016.
http://evobsession.com/nrel-proterra-ev-buses-possess-average-fuel-economy-roughly4-times-higher-than-that-of-cng-baseline-buses/
Rocky Mountain Institute study finds:
benefits of batteries significant
Source: http://www.rmi.org/Content/Files/RMI-TheEconomicsOfBatteryEnergyStorageExecutiveSummary-FINAL.pdf, October, 2015.
AES 100 MW Energy Storage, 40 MW Resource, Dayton Ohio
Large scale battery storage use is increasing
Sources:
http://www.utilitydive.com/news/why-battery-storage-is-just-about-ready-to-take-off/407096/
Photo: AES Energy Storage, Dayton, Ohio (40 MW)
http://www.rtoinsider.com/miso-energy-storage-tariff-20988/
http://aesenergystorage.com/2013/09/30/aes-reaches-more-than-100-mw-of-grid-scale-storage-inthe-u-s-with-40-mw-resource-in-ohio/
Residential, Commercial and Grid-scale
energy storage sales are booming …
Source:
http://cleantechnica.com/2016/02/18/australian-energy-storage-market-rise-ihs/, Feb.
18, 2016.
See also: http://cleantechnica.com/2016/01/28/uk-will-add-1-gigawatt-of-energy-storage-
Micro-Generation in Alberta
Public Group
PV is becoming popular in Alberta, in spite
of its status as Canada’s largest oilproducing province.
Source: https://www.facebook.com/groups/albertamicrogen/permalink/668047143298322/
Public Group
This Alberta home PV system has a capacity
of 43 kW and will be expanded to 50 kW.
Source: https://www.facebook.com/groups/albertamicrogen/?fref=nf/
Public Group
PV systems are being installed in Yukon.
Source: https://www.facebook.com/groups/solarenergyintheyukon/permalink/841340049322251/, March 7, 2016 – Left Photo
Personal communication from John Maissan – Right Photo.
Previous work showed
that ETS is an
economic option in
Yukon that could
complement PV.
An Australian company (Zen Energy) claims that
it can offer lower prices than the grid
by using solar collectors and battery storage.
Sources: http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2015/s4339390.htm
http://www.steffes.com/off-peak-heating/residential-systems.html
http://www.zenenergy.com.au/home/
PV microinverters (Smart Inverters) are
proving to be good grid-optimization agents
Source:
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/enphase-is-turning-its-microinverters-intogrid-optimizationagents?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=gtmsocial, Feb. 10,
Homes are beginning
to be pre-wired for
solar power, solar
batteries, and electric
car chargers
Added benefit: emergency backup power
Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/home-property/77053905/new-homes-prewired-forsolar-power-batteries-and-electric-car-charging
Solar + Electric Vehicle + Stationary Battery
= Free Electricity Possible after 8 years
Source:
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/why-evs-will-make-solar-viable-withoutsubsidies-91738
Integrating PV on electrical grids has sometimes
created a stormy situation
… in which lies an opportunity …
Sources:
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/can-the-utility-industry-survive-the-energy-transition
https://ilsr.org/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2016/03/Report-Mighty-Microgrids-PDF-3_3_16.pdf
Net metering under review
across the United States
Source: http://m.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/new-report-finds-net-meteringunder-attack-across-the-unitedstates_100023348/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter, February 23, 2016.
http://policyintegrity.org/publications/detail/managing-future-electricity-grid, Feb. 19, 2016
Grid parity is improving.
Sources:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics, March 8, 2016
While previously, US Federal energy
subsidies favoured fossil fuels
Sources: http://cleantechnica.com/2016/02/25/the-myth-about-renewable-energy-subsidies/
as US Tax Credits for Renewables Extended
Sources:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-17/what-just-happened-tosolar-and-wind-is-a-really-big-deal
Australia says there are no current concerns
about the growing market penetration of
renewable energy on its grid …
Source: http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/sa-network-says-no-issues-withrenewables-as-it-looks-to-wind-solar-micro-grids-70844
… and smooth sailing is expected to return
Source: http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/can-theutility-industry-survive-the-energy-transition
Finally, remember what Justin Hall-Tipping, CEO of
Nanoholdings said about electricity transmission
to neighbouring houses becoming free?
Source: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/NWXL5_NQ31Y/T5VWg_AlC4I/AAAAAAAAAyw/EZhmTeTsDZI/s1600/JustinHall-Tipping.jpg
It happened.
2 weeks ago.
Source: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2079334-blockchain-based-microgrid-gives-power-to-consumers-innew-york/?utm_source=NSNS&utm_medium=SOC&utm_campaign=hoot&cmpid=SOC, March 2, 2016
7. General Summary
What has changed:
the world is taking climate change
seriously,
there’s been a sea change in Chinese
energy behaviour,
clean energy is taking hold in developing
countries, and
the price of solar and wind power is
falling.
Source: http://grist.org/climate-energy/4-surprising-reasons-why-clean-energy-is-gainingon-fossil-fuels/
7. General Summary
 The EU directive (2010/31/EU) requiring
“nearly zero energy” (nZEB) in new
buildings by 2020 (2018 for new public
buildings) is making a difference.
 Significant EU & private research funding
is accelerating energy-related advances.
7. General Summary (concluded)
 Experience around the world is showing
that investments in renewables like solar is
beginning to pay big dividends.
 The EU’s approach to programs, incentives
and regulations is resulting in reduced
energy use, and more use of renewable
energy in all new buildings.
8. What You Can Do Now
 Consider measures that can lower your
energy use like LED lighting, insulation
retrofits, better windows, etc. ….
 Consider installing a solar system at your
home or business.
 Consider other complementary technologies
like ETS, electric battery storage, an electric
vehicle, solar thermal, wind power, etc.

Solar PV: Latest Developments

Transcription

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