Lessons learnt from the Great East Japan and the Great Hanshin

Lessons learnt from the Great East Japan
and the Great Hanshin Earthquake Japan‐Jamaica 50th Anniversary of Diplomatic Relations
in 2014 January 8, 2014
Established in 1980
by the Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Act Haruo KUBO JICA Senior Volunteer for ODPEM
JICA/ JOCV Jamaica
25th Anniversary in 2014
Professional Civil Engineer
Disaster Prevention Expert e‐mail : [email protected]
Presentation Overview
Ⅰ. The Great East Japan Earthquake
1. Characteristics of the Great East Japan Earthquake
2. What caused the Great East Japan Earthquake/Tsunami to occur?
3. Tsunami Early Warning System and its Limitations
4. Important Case Studies from Earthquake 5. Lessons learnt from the Fukushima Nuclear Power
Plant Accident Ⅱ. The Great Hanshin Earthquake
1. Characteristics of the Great Hanshin Earthquake
2. New Findings of the Great Hanshin Earthquake Ⅲ. Conclusion
Comparison of the Great East Japan and the Great Hanshin Earthquake
Great East Japan Earthquake
Great Hanshin Earthquake
(2:46PM March 11th 2011)
(5:46AM January 17th 1995)
M9.0
(Plate boundary )
561 km2
M7.3 (Epicentral
earthquake by active fault)
―
Number of dead and missing
Approx. 20,000 people
6,434 people
Number of evacuees (max)
Approx. 480,000 people
Approx. 317,000 people
Magnitude (Type of Earthquake)
Area flooded by tsunami
Number of buildings fully‐and half ‐destroyed
Damage cost
(Iwate, Miyagi, and Fukushima) Approx. 300,000 buildings
Approx. 249,000 buildings
Approx. 16.9 trillion yen
(169 billions dollars)
Approx. 9.6 trillion yen
(96 billions dollars)
Great Hanshin Earthquake
Tokyo
Great Hanshin Earthquake
Great East Japan Earthquake
Seawater Surface
Great East Japan Earthquake
The Great East Japan Earthquake
At the time, March 11th 2011, I was in Bhutan as a JICA Senior Volunteer.
March 12
Memorial Ceremony by the King
in the Zong
March 21
Lunch Party for encouragement by the King in the Palace March 13
Memorial Ceremony by the Prime Minister and all Ministers
in the Zong
March 11,2012
Memorial Ceremony by the King & Queen and the Prime Minister
● The Bhutanese government delivered heartwarming message.
Bhutan has little that can be done for Japan.
However there is always a spiritual connection.
We would like to thank the Jamaican government and its people for their warm support and message as well as the other 179 nations in the world.
Characteristics of the Great East Japan Earthquake 1. Disaster zones covered widespread geographical area
2. Shake damage caused by the Earthquake’s motion
Very little damage of structures
● Fair amount of damage could be seen to various
foundation of buildings in the coastal zone (Liquefaction)
● Damage mostly of a non‐structural nature (Fall of ceiling)
●
3. Direct/ Indirect serious damage caused by Tsunami included: Human suffering / Property damage 4. Metropolitan area also suffered impact
5. Various kind of problems were induced by the Nuclear Power Plant accident World Geographical Distribution on Hypocenters and Plates
Earthquake M5 or more, shallower than 100km
from 1988 to 2007.
The Plates in and around Japan
North American
Japan
Jamaica
Eurasian
Pacific
Falling down: 8～9cm/year
Philippine
Falling down: 4～5cm/year
Japan’s percentage of world Earthquakes
●
Jamaica
●
The Mechanism of the Earthquakes and Tsunamis
Earthquake M6 or more : 20.5%
Land percentage of Japan : 0.25%
Drag‐in
The Plates in and around Jamaica
Tsunami
Earthquake
Bound and go up
Estimated Fault Slide Distribution by the Earthquake
Source : Meteorological Research Institute
●
The fault rupture was gradually expanded
at the initial point of rupture, and divided
south and north up to 450km.
●
The final fault rupture was 450km length
and 150km width. The magnitude was 9.0.
●
The amount of the maximum slide was 37m.
●
The rupture duration was 170 seconds. ●
The shake of the main quake continued for approx. 6 minutes at the whole East Japan.
★Rupture starting point of main quake
○ After quake, M5 or more, for one day from
the main quake
X Minor Fault
▲ Earthquake acceleration meter 23 points
Amount of slide (m)
The Scale of the Great East Japan Earthquake
Moment Magnitude Mw : Suitable for a massive earthquake Mw=(logMo‐9.1)/1.5 Mo=µ×Ｄ×Ｓ
Where: µ= Shear strength of the faulted rock
S= Area of the fault D= Displacement on the fault
Earthquake
Length
Width
Displacement
Energy
Great East Japan
Great Hanshin
450km
40km
150km
15km
Max. 37m
Max.2m
1000
1
Mw 9
Mw 7
Comparison of Energy
Mw 8
Approx. 32 times
Approx. 1000 times
Mw
9.0
6.9 ★
Earthquake duration above level 5
2 minutes
15 seconds
★Mj =7.3 Magnitude by the Meteorological Office Change of the Japanese islands in the Earthquake Horizontal Movement
Japan Sea
Vertical Movement
Japan Sea
Maximum Settlement : 1.2m (Ojika)
5.3 m (Ojika)
Maximum Horizontal
Movement : 5.3m (Ojika)
1.2 m (Ojika)
● The horizontal movement at the Japan Sea was 1 m.
Therefore, Northeast Japan was extended 4m in the direction of east and west.
● The distortion of east and west was eliminated at a stroke by this Earthquake.
( Distortion : 1～2 cm/ year for 200～400 years ) Source : Geographical Survey Institute
Distribution of Tsunami Inundation and Run‐up Height
Source : Preliminary result by joint survey group for the Earthquake
Inundation Height
Run‐up Height
Maximum Run‐up Height : 40.4m
(Miyako, Aneyoshi)
Tsunami Arrival Time and Wave Height
Observation Point
①
②
③
① Iwate Miyako
④
⑤
35 minutes
Over 8.5m
② Iwate Kamaishi
35
Over 4.1m
③ Iwate Ohfunato
29 (15:15)
Over 8.0m
④ Miyagi Ishinomaki
34
Over 7.6m
⑤ Fukushima Soma
64
Over 7.3m
*Wave
Height 0 10 20 30 40
Tsunami Height (m)
Maximum Tsunami Height
Arrival Time *Wave Height
Sea Level
Inundation
Height Run‐up
Height
Number of dead and missing by the Earthquake
Source : Central Disaster Prevention Council
Geographical Survey Institute Inundation Area
Sendai
Sendai city
Kitakami
river
Flatland area 9,764
Tsunami Height (m)
Miyako
Deceased Person
Sendai airport
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Cause of death by the Earthquake
92.4% ‐‐‐‐ Drowning
4.4 ‐‐‐‐ Crushing
1.1 ‐‐‐‐‐ Burn death
2.1 ‐‐‐‐‐ Unclear Ibaraki
Fukushima
Miyagi
Sanriku rias coast area 7,975
Iwate
(Assumption of Height) Year Magnitude Dead (Great East Japan) Offing of Miyagi 1793 M8.0‐ M8.4 100 Inundation Height Meiji Sanriku
1896 M8.2‐ M8.5 21,959 Run‐up Height Showa Sanriku
1933 M8.1 3,064
Strength of Tsunami
Source : Japan Meteorological Agency
Tsunami
Wave
Wavelength : Several kms ～ Hundreds of kms
Wavelength : Several meters ～ Hundreds of meters Whole sea water break over from seabed to sea surface Only the water near a sea surface break over Tsunami Speed and Wave Height
Power of Mega Tsunami v= √gh
● The speed of tsunami is almost same as a jet aircraft.
( Even the place of shallow depth of water, the speed is
same as an athlete. ) ● Tsunami may arrive suddenly.
In shallow depth of water, tsunami wave height becomes high
Tsunami becomes high depending on concentration of wave
Peninsula
Bay, Rias
● The destructive power of tsunami is frightful, and also recede wave/tide is huge. (with debris)
● Tsunami may strike repeatedly.
● Tsunami propagate inland river.
● Even if does not feel an earthquake, tsunami may come.
( Distant Earthquake, Tele‐Tsunami)
● Even if an earthquake is weak, big tsunami may come.
Depth contour
( Tsunami Earthquake )
The limitation of the Earthquake/Tsunami Warning in JMA
Earthquake Rapture Time and Magnitude Tsunami Forecast Operation
14:46
8.5
After 8.6 seconds Warning M7.2
8
Earthquake
Magnitude
7.5
Earthquake Early Warning
14:46
Input Earthquake Data
After 8.6 seconds
Database
Approx. 100,000 kinds Data
Converged by M8.1
7
6.5
Underestimated
6
5.5
5
Forecast Tsunami
14:49
After 3 minutes
After 15 minutes
15:14
After 28 minutes
15:30
After 44 minutes
×
1st Tsunami Warning
3 m, 6 m Fault Rupture duration : 170 seconds, Mw9.0
4.5
Seismic Data
: M7.9
4
0
20
The Mw could not be calculated because it fell outside of the seismometer measurement range. 3rd Tsunami Warning
Over 10 m Seismic Waveform [Osaki City, Miyagi]
JMA Seismic Intensity Scale : 6 upper
Maximum acceleration : 549 gal = cm/s2
14:46 47 48 49
M8.1
Tsunami Data
60
80
100
120
[NHK TV] Tsunami Warning Prefecture
2nd Tsunami Warning
6 m, 10 m 40
Lapsed time from the earthquake occurrence (Second)
Iwate
Miyagi
Fukushima
H(14:49)
(3 min.)
3m
6
3
H(15:14)
(28min.)
6m
10
6
H(15:30)
(44min)
Over 10m
Over10
Over10
①The first Tsunami Warning : by the assumption of M7.9 ②The second Tsunami Warning :
Electric power failure → There was an area 50 51 which was not able to receive this information. ③The third Tsunami Warning :
Iwate Prefecture was already attacked by the Tsunami of 10m or more (15:15).
Source : Japan Meteorological Agency
Tsunami Monitoring Network Offshore‐water‐pressure gauge
Ｓａｔｅｌｌｉｔｅ
Ｔｏ ＪＭＡ
Ｂｕａｙ
Ｒｅｌａｙ Ｓｔａｔｉｏｎ
Offshore‐Water‐
pressure Gauge
Observation started : December 2012
Tsunami can be detected max. 20 minutes earlier than the previous system.
GPS buoy Tide gauge
● Tide gauges/ Tsunami meters Total : 170
■ GPS buoys Total : 15 ▲ Offshore‐water‐pressure gauges Total : 36
Category
Installed Organization
Japan Meteorological Agency
Warning
Port and Harbour Bureau
Geospatial Information Authority for huge earthquakes (> M8 ) Japan Coast Guard
JAMASTEC *
★1. Initial Warning :
NIED **
Huge, High
Cabinet Office
2. Later update
Others * Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology
**National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention
Revised Tsunami Warning/ Advisories (From March 7, 2013)
in quantitative expression
Criteria to issue
Warnings /
Advisories
Major Tsunami
Warning
Tsunami height
is expected to
exceed 3 m
Tsunami
warning
Tsunami heights is
expected to be
up to 3m
Tsunami height is
expected to be
up to 1 m
Tsunami
Advisory
Estimated maximum
tsunami heights
Quantitative
expression
(Classification)
Over 10m (10m~)
10m (5m~10m)
5m
(3m~ 5m)
★For
huge
earthquakes
Huge
3m (1m~3m)
High
1m (0.2m~1m)
N/A
System Developing for Tsunami Early Warnings ( Tentative name) Source : National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention Image of Measurement Network for Earthquake and Tsunami
Landing Station
Landing Station
Data Center
Observation
Equipment
Seismometer & Tsunami meter
Beginning of Observation : year 2015
Existing Tsunami Early Warning Seismometer Network
● Estimate by mainly seismometer on land
● Problem for accuracy and swiftness
New System Measurement devices
■ Seismometer
▲ Water‐pressure
gauge
● Direct detect by the observation network
● Allows for detection of earthquake max.20‐30 seconds earlier than previous system, tsunami max. 20 minutes earlier. ● JMA
■ Universities
▲ NIED
◊ Others
Important Case Studies from Earthquake
Story of One School’s Tragedy
Location of the School
Ishinomaki city, Miyagi
Bay
10 persons died among 13 teachers.
74 persons died among 108 school children.
Time
Ookawa Elementary School’s Action
14:46
Earthquake Occurred
School children hide under desk.
Teachers directed school children to evacuate in
playground.
15:00
Teachers were conducting roll call in the playground.
Teachers argued about the evacuation area. Disaster
radio tells the official announcement of a major
tsunami warning. (Radio broadcast : H=6m)
15:33
Radio broadcast :
Massive tsunami warning : over 10m
Evacuation was started to the basic point of the bridge.
15:37 Tsunami attacked the school children etc.
▼
Ookawa Elementary School
▼ : The evacuation area aimed at ( 7〜8m higher than playground)
Lessons from this case
The School after the Tsunami
▼
●The tsunami evacuation area was not decided in advance.
●The school building had a possibility of collapsing by aftershock. It was hard to climb the hill at the back due to steep incline.
→ Teachers argued about the evacuation place.
●The City Disaster Prevention Manual → Only the statement of “reaching upland”.
This school was able to be used as a evacuation place.
Secondary evacuation measures were not selected by school.
Note : The evacuation situation is under investigation by the Verification Committee. (The truth of 51‐minute action is still unknown.)
Miracles of the Kamaishi city, Iwate
Evacuation Route
El. 10m
Unosumai
K school
U school
El. 20m
Kamaishi city : Time
14:46
14:50
2,926 students of elementary and junior high school 15:00
in the city were saved. But, five students who were absent on the day fell victim. 15:10
That’s a survival rate of 99.8%.
El. 35m
K school :
15:20
Kamaishi Higashi
junior high school
U school :
El. 80m
Tsunami seen from the Nursing Home Ⓑ
Unosumai elementary school
15:21
Students’ Action
Earthquake Occurred
The K school broadcast wasn’t functioning due to
power cut. They immediately made their decision
and ran out to the playground.
The U school students joined and evacuated
together.
(At first, the students evacuated to the 3rd floor of
the school. They saw the students of K school were
evacuating. And then, they immediately made
their decision and ran out).
About 600 students evacuated to the Group Home,
Ⓐ in the map. They saw that a cliff on their back
was collapsing. They decided to evacuate to the
Nursing Home,Ⓑ in the map.
The students arrived the Nursing HomeⒷ . About
30 seconds later, the Group Home Ⓐ was
swallowed by the Tsunami. Roll call is started.
They saw white wave splash crushing to a
breakwater. They decided to run up further to a
Higher GroundⒸ in the map. Tsunami stopped
about 100m in front of the Nursing Home Ⓑ.
The maximum tsunami arrived at the Kamaishi
city.
Three Principles of Evacuation 1. Don’t be caught by assumption.
By : Toshitaka Katada, Professor of Gunma University
The U school is located outside expected flood area in the hazard map.
The Group Home Ⓐ was designated as one of the official evacuation site.
2. Do as much as you can.
The students evacuated from the Nursing Home Ⓑ to the Higher Ground Ⓒ.
3. Take the lead in evacuation. Setting a good example. → Surrounding persons are also involved in.
Positive and Negative Effect of Structural Countermeasures
Effect of the Kamaishi Super Breakwater
Simulation
Offshore 20km
Water depth 204m
Offshore Tsunami
Height (Observation)
●The time when tsunami attacks inland was
Run‐up Height
Time until exceeds (Simulation) 20.2m
the Breakwater
(Simulation) 28minutes
Sea Surface
Observation
Positive Effect
Tsunami Height
(Simulation) 13.7m
Wave
40% lowering
Stop Penetration Wave
Tsunami
Lag Time 6 minutes
Tsunami Height
(Observation) 8.1m
Run‐up
50% lowering
Run‐up Height
(Observation) 10.0m
Sea Surface
Breakwater
Kamaishi Bay and Breakwater
Time until exceeds
the Breakwater
(Observation) 34minutes
Run‐up
Offshore Tsunami Height (Observation)
Source : Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport
After the Tsunami
Kamaishi
city
Design Wave
T1/3 = 13sec.
H1/3= 7.4m
H max=13.3m
delayed.
●The speed and destructive power of tsunami
were reduced.
●The inundation depth and run‐up height were reduced.
●The speed of recede wave/tide was reduced.
Negative Effect
●Existence of the structures make citizens hold excessive sense of security.
→ Prompt evacuation behavior is barred.
●In the case of a high storm surge barrier, a marine situation does not look well.
→ Appropriate action is blocked.
Kamaishi city :
Data collected revealed that 65% of deceased persons lived in an area defined as the safe zone. Section of Breakwater
＋ ４m
7,600t/unit
Opening Section 300m
670m
990m
Damaged 80%
Damaged 50%
Damaged Concrete Caisson
Max.‐63m
The Great East Japan Earthquake/Tsunami Behavior Survey 1. When did you evacuate after the Earthquake?
Source : Weathernews
⑩ 19%
⑨ 10%
① 11%
② 12%
Survivors
⑧ 1%
⑦ 1%
⑥７%
⑤ 10%
③ 15%
④ 14%
①
②
③
④
⑤
⑥
⑦
⑧
⑨
⑩
① 4% ②3%
③4%
④3%
⑤4%
⑥3%
⑦0%
⑪40% Deceased
⑧1%
⑨21%
⑩17%
Immediately Less than 5 minutes
10
20
30
60
120
120 minutes or more
Did not evacuate
Nonresponse [Survey Method]
●Survey Period: May 18, 2011 ～June 12, 2011
● Quantity of responses : Total 5,296 (for survivors: 3,298
for deceased: 1,998 *)
*The reply from deceased’s family etc.
[Result Analyses]
●Time from the Earthquake occurrence to the evacuation start
Survivors : 19 minutes
① Immediately Deceased : 21 minutes
② Less than 5 minutes
●1 out of 5 persons did not
③
10
evacuate.
④
20
(Most reasons : I thought that the ⑤
30
present place was safe.) ⑥
60
● 18% of deceased :
⑦
120
⑧ 120 minutes or more An obstacle is encountered during evacuation. ⑨ Did not evacuate
⑩ Nonresponse ⑪ Not clear 2. Why didn’t evacuate?
I thought that the present place was safe.
Before escaping, I had something to do.
I didn’t consider escaping.
Deceased *
I didn’t want to escape.
I wasn’t able to move by fear.
I couldn’t find an escape way. Others
Not clear
*The reply from deceased’s family etc.
Nonresponse
3. Why couldn’t run away from tsunami? The obstacles were in the evacuation passage.
I moved to again dangerous place.
An evacuation area wasn’t safe.
Deceased *
I was taking care of the family etc.
A physical reason.
I was engaged in disaster correspondence. The evacuation area was too far.
I didn’t go to an evacuation area directly.
A evacuation place wasn’t found. Others
Quantity of Responses
Outline of the Accident of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Tsunami Inundation
Pathway of Tsunami Inundation Source : Tokyo Electric Power Co., Inc.
Tsunami Height ♯1〜♯4: 11.5〜15.5m
♯5,♯6 : 13〜14.5m
Inundation
Run‐up
Turbine Building
Breakwater :10m
Emergency Diesel Generator Metal‐Clad Switch Gear Supply, Power Center
Ground Level ♯1〜♯4:10m, ♯5,♯6:13m
Chain of the Severe Accidents
March 11 12 13 14 Great East Japan
Earthquake at 14:46
15 Source : Makoto Saito, Professor of Hitotsubashi University
The Opinion which I take notice of
● The Unit ♯1 was an outdated plant (40 years old). Required evaluation/ risk assessment of the plant to Japanese standards was not carried out. (product made by General Electric Co., the first generation).
● It is very difficult to predict tsunami height IC : Isolation Condenser FP: Fission Products PCV : Primary Containment Vessel
RCIC : Reactor Core Isolation Cooling System
HPCI : High Pressure Cooling Injection System
Outage
No fuel in core
Unit♯1
and its impact on plant , however counter measures for failure cooling system should be in place to mitigate against any eventuality. Unit♯2
Unit♯3
Unit♯4
● No immediate action was taken after the Reactor Buildings
accident at the plant. There was constant delay of information between the head office and the Fukushima Power Plant.
● In order to minimize risk during operation at the plant, it is being proposed that ♯1,3,5 be used instead of ♯1,2,3.
The Great Hanshin Earthquake
Characteristics of the Great Hanshin Earthquake 1. The large‐scale earthquake hit the big city directly
2. Damage was done to the critical amenities such as: electricity, water service and gas
3. Serious damage occurred to the railways, the Bullet Train and the highways
4. The high density of the old timbered houses caused: large‐scale collapse and outbreak of fire
5. Many residents were forced to live in shelters
Kobe ●
×Hypocenter
Earthquake Fault
Red : Intensity Scale 7
●Osaka
Estimated Time of Death
Source : Metropolitan Police Department
18th
19th
2%
1%
The Earthquake occurrence time : 5:46AM
●80% or more of people died by collapsed buildings and the
toppled furniture within
15 minutes after the earthquake
occurrence.
17th after 6:00AM
16%
Great Hanshin
Earthquake
January 17th
1995
5:46AM ～ 6:00AM
81%
●At that time, the opinion of the mass media was
if the Self Defense Force and
firefighting teams had come earlier, much more persons could have been saved.
This was not completely true.
Estimated Cause of Death
Source : Statistical Data of Kobe city
Unclear
3.9%
Burn death
12.8%
● Almost all deaths were caused by
collapse of houses.
●
Great Hanshin
Earthquake
January 17thth
March 17
12.8% of persons killed by fire,
was due to their inability to escape
collapsed buildings.
1995
(Head/ Internal organ etc. Injury Suffocation, Wound shock)
Due to Collapse of Buildings
83.3%
The person who needed rescue : Approx. 35,000
Rescued by neighboring residence : 〃 27,000
Rescued by Police, Fire Fighting, SDF : 〃
8,000
Age
Age Distribution of Death by the Great Hanshin Earthquake 95～
90～94
85～89
80～84
75～79
70～74
65～69
60～64
55～59
50～54
45～49
40～44
35～39
30～34
25～29
20～24
15～19
10～14
5～9
0～4
Source: Health, Labour and Welfare
Statistics Association 1996
Old houses and wooden apartments were broken.
(Many elderly persons and
students lived)
0
100
200
300
Number of Death
400
500
600
Outbreak of fire ratio immediately after the earthquake (%)
Outbreak of Fire Ratio and Building Complete‐collapse Ratio
(Outbreak of fire by 7 AM)
Source: Fire Disaster Management Agency website
30
Nada Ward
25
Nagata Ward
Ashiya
Ward
20
Hyougo
Ward
Chuou
Ward
● If buildings did not collapse
there would be few fire
outbreaks.
15
Higashinada
Ward
10
5
Nishinomiya Ward
Suma Ward
Amagasaki Ward
Nishi
Ward
Itami
Ward
Tarumizu
Ward
0
0 Kita Ward
5
10
15
20
25
Building Complete‐collapse Ratio (%)
30
Attenuation of Disaster Memory
Source : Hatamura Yotaro, Honorable Professor, University of Tokyo
Organization
Individual
Get bored
Get cool
Forget
Stop,
Collapse
Area
Society
Area
forget
Culture
Doesn’t know what happen
Disappear from society
⑤④ ③
②
①
▲Blue Mountain
Block 1692 Jamaica
0 3 days 3 months 3 years 30 years 60 years 300 years 1200 years
Earthquake/ Tsunami in East Japan
▲
Kingston 1993
▲Western
▲
1957
Kingston
1971
No. Occurrence ④
Aneyoshi
★
●
Kamaishi
Kisennuma
⑤★
③★
②★
①★
①
②
③
④
⑤
⑥
▲Blue
Mountain
Block 1907
(Port Royal)
Name of
Earthquake
Magnitude
Deceased
Jogan
M8.3 ～M8.6
1,000
M8.1
3,000
1793. 2
Keicho
Offing of Miyagi M8.0～ M8.4
100
1896. 6
Meiji Sanriku
M8.2～ M8.5
21,959
1933. 3
Showa Sanriku
M8.1
3,064
1960. 5
Chilean M9.5
142(Japan)
Year. Month
869. 7
1611.12
Sendai
① Jogan tsunami : Almost same scale as the tsunami which attacked the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant.
② Keicho tsunami : Sendai, Fukushima and etc. were damaged.
The Hamlet which faithfully performed Historical Lessons
Location of Aneyoshi, Miyako city
Source: National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention
Run‐up height of the Great East Japan
Hamlet of Aneyoshi
This Stele was built in 1933, after Showa Sanriku
Tsunami.
Elevation : Approx. 60m
Run‐up height of Meiji Sanriku
Tsunami
Tsunami Stele
"High dwellings are the peace and harmony of our descendants. Remember the calamity of the great tsunamis. Do not build any homes below this point."
Run‐up height of Chilean Tsunami
Tsunami
Meiji Sanriku
Showa Sanriku
Stele saved the Hamlet
(1896)
(1933)
Hamlet of Aneyoshi
Houses
Damage Rate
Mortality
Rate
100%
50
82%
50
Great East Japan : Three persons died.
Strengthen Scenario Planning Source : Kimiro Meguro, Professor of University of Tokyo
Futuristic predictions of a disaster situation. This should include steps to be taken before, during and after the event.
Magnitude of Earthquake
‐Huge, Strong ‐Possibility of Tsunami
Whereabouts
‐In land ‐Sea Coast
‐City Area
‐Office
‐Home
Occurrence Time/ Season
‐Day, Lunch Hour, Night
‐Summer, Winter
Disaster Victims
‐Robust → Disaster Victims
‐Vulnerable People
Imagine Earthquake
Individual, Family, Community, Organization
Map
Important Facilities
‐Hospital ‐Fire Station
‐Police Station
Time after an Earthquake Occurrence
Change of the Needs accompanying progress of time
‐3 sec, 10 sec, 1 min, 2 min
‐1 hour, 1 week, 1 month, 1 year Establish a high culture of disaster resilience
① Living Environment
‐ Create an environment where disasters don’t occur
easily
‐ Restoring power promptly
② High level of individual disaster resilience
‐ Ensure individuals are
prepared on a regular basis
(drills)
Time to an Earthquake Occurrence
Prior Measures for Damage Mitigation
‐2 min, 1 min, 10 sec, 3 sec
‐1 year, 1 month, 1 week, 1 hour Conclusion Important matter for Earthquake Countermeasures
●
Improve earthquake resistance of Buildings / Critical Infrastructure
Important matter for Tsunami Countermeasures
Decide Evacuation Zones in advance ● Conduct Evacuation Drills on regular basis
● Evacuate on initiative, and Do your best
●
Important matter for others ●
●
Increase Scenario Planning and Prepare for Disasters
Learn from the Previous Disasters ( 1692/1907‐ Blue Mountain Block, Jamaica)