The power of value chains
Transcription
The power of value chains
issue 16 October 2009 O BR KER Including the rural poor in global markets The power of value chains Rethinking state building Shaping Europe’s international role Germany: A focus on global processes Negotiating space contents O BR KER 3 OPINION Shaping Europe’s international role Paul Engel, Simon Maxwell, Dirk Messner and Pierre Schori 4 On the website Louise Stoddard 6 Knowledge democracy Jean-Paul Marthoz 8 Rethinking state building Fragile states require a new approach, one that is firmly rooted in indigenous capacities and institutions. Seth Kaplan 13SPECIAL REPORT The power of value chains: Including the rural poor in global markets Global value chains now link producers to consumers ‘from farm to fork’. How can small entrepreneurs in developing countries benefit from these value chains? 14Empowering rural entrepreneurs Anna Laven 17Engendering benefits for all Linda Mayoux 19Beyond the retail revolution Malcolm Harper 21BOOK REVIEW Global engagement, local action Donatella della Porta reviews Global Civil Society 2009 The Broker, issue 16, October 2009 The Broker offers knowledge of global development issues. The Broker aims to contribute to evidence-based policy making and action by encouraging exchanges between knowledge producers and development professionals. The Broker is a reliable source of information for all those concerned with development and globalization, especially in the fields of economics, human security, governance, and science and technology. The Broker is published bimonthly, with an accompanying web magazine (www.thebrokeronline.eu) and email newsletter. Editor in Chief: Frans Bieckmann, [email protected] Research editor: Ellen Lammers Web editor: Louise Stoddard Editing: Valerie Jones Research: Chris van der Borgh (conflict), Janne Nijman (global justice), Willemijn Verkoren (civil society) The Broker thesis project: Kim Brouwers, Marenne Mei Jansen Editorial committee: Johan van de Gronden, Erik van Heeswijk, Bram Huijsman, Mirjam Ros-Tonen, Kees Schaepman, Fons van der Velden Production and website: Contactivity bv, Stationsweg 28, 2312 AV Leiden, the Netherlands Layout: Anita Toebosch Photo research: Rutger Engelhard Cover illustration: © Rutger Post/Inbeelding, Amsterdam Printer: Drukkerij Holland, Alphen a/d Rijn Publisher: Stichting International Development Publications (IDP), Leiden, the Netherlands Board of IDP: Louk Box (chair), Evelijne Bruning, Ton Dietz, Rajendre Khargi The Broker is funded by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) / WOTRO Science for Global Development. The opinions expressed in The Broker are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of its publisher or funding agencies. Readers are welcome to reproduce materials published in The Broker provided that the source is clearly acknowledged. ISSN 1874-2033 Issue 17 will be available in December 2009. 22Germany: A focus on global processes In the future, Germany wishes to play a more significant role in European and multilateral institutions. Hannelore Börgel 26RESEARCH HORIZONS Fishing for alternatives The scope of fisheries research needs to be broadened to include the people who depend on marine resources. Alhaji Jallow 28Negotiating space Agreement on preventive arms control in space could soon be reached, as long as all countries choose to cooperate. Ineke Malsch 31Masters of innovation 32COLUMN Chinese puzzle Erwin Bulte 2 www.thebrokeronline.eu State building Quique This first report on The Broker thesis project features reviews of the work of four students from Africa. opinion Shaping Europe’s international role Paul Engel, Simon Maxwell, Dirk Messner and Pierre Schori T he decisions that are made over the next three months will shape Europe’s international role in the future. The script that drives global policy making is being rewritten, in response to the financial crisis, climate change and global security challenges. Meanwhile, the institutions of the European Union are on the brink of a radical overhaul. By January 2020, we will have new institutions, new leaders and the outline of a new script. But will we also be optimistic about Europe as a progressive force in the world? Tackling the three big challenges we are facing – the financial crisis, climate change and security – will require new frameworks and structures for international cooperation and providing what are often described as global public goods. Europe has special advantages. It works, or tries to work, on the basis of shared values. It offers economic, financial, diplomatic and emerging military options. Several new arrangements at the European level have the potential to ensure that Europe is a progressive force, but only if six conditions are met. First, the links between development and other sectors must be made more explicit. Some countries talk of this as ‘joined-up thinking’, or strengthening coherent policy making – in economic matters, but also in Iraq, Afghanistan and other areas where diplomats, soldiers and aid workers must find ways of working together. In Europe, the phrase is ‘policy coherence for development’. In the Commission’s own analysis, the Common Agricultural Policy has been a prime example of the failure to achieve policy coherence, as has immigration policy. But Europe has actively begun to develop joined-up strategies for Africa, for example, or for specific regions. Progress in delivering these strategies needs to be monitored. Has the EU used all its collective resources constructively to bring peace to Somalia? How would we know? Who is accountable? Second, taking development seriously means having a strong development commissioner at the heart of policy making. Too often in the past, development has been a detail left to one side while the ‘big beasts’ scramble for the glamorous portfolios like competition or trade. It is ironic that EU member states have insisted on open recruitment procedures for the heads of the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and UN agencies, yet they allow decisions on the appointment of EU commissioners to be made largely behind closed doors. Third, the development commissioner needs the staff and the resources to do the job. The existing arrangements are fractured and unsatisfactory. The instruments of European development cooperation, which add up to nearly €10 billion a year, are split in geographic coverage and ownership between two commissioners – development and external affairs – and have different forms of parliamentary accountability. Particularly intriguing questions are whether the proposed new European External Action Service will be designed as a champion of development, and what its relationship will be to EuropeAid. Fourth, the European Parliament must raise its profile on development issues. The development committee has a new chair, Eva Joly, a French Green MEP, whose job it will be to rally MEPs behind a more ambitious and comprehensive vision of development, with a strong focus on policy coherence for development. Fifth, European development cooperation has been characterized by a high degree of accountability to developing countries, and this needs to be preserved. The EU–Africa strategy is jointly owned by the two sets of partners. The Cotonou Agreement between the EU and African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) states has strong arbitration procedures and is governed by joint councils of ministers and parliamentary assemblies. Europe must strengthen its partnerships. Why, for example, should Asian countries like India or Pakistan not benefit from the same kind of accountability structures as those that apply to the ACP states? Finally, none of this will make any difference unless words and action come together. The EU already has a consensus on development policy, signed in December 2005, by heads of government meeting in the European Council, but also by the Parliament and the Commission. That consensus affirms the central objective of poverty reduction and of development ‘as a central goal by itself’. The consensus needs to be updated, however, to reflect the changing agenda. It is easy to imagine a Europe enmeshed in its own problems, treating the developing world as a threat or as a suitable recipient of our charity, and relegating development to a minor role as the handmaiden of foreign policy. But in the coming three months we have an opportunity to craft a different approach. 1 To read the full text of this article, and to join the debate on the future role of Europe, visit www.thebrokeronline.eu Paul Engel is director of the European Centre for Development Policy Management, Maastricht, the Netherlands Simon Maxwell is senior research associate at the Overseas Development Institute, London, UK Dirk Messner is director of the German Development Institute, Bonn, Germany Pierre Schori is director general of the Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior, Madrid, Spain The Broker issue 16 October 2009 3 www.thebrokeronline.eu On the website Over the last few weeks, The Broker has blogged from three major international meetings, providing over 40 new posts, including reports from the floor, video interviews and cartoons. The largest was the annual conference of the Development Studies Association, at the University of Ulster in Northern Ireland, where researchers and practitioners discussed opportunities presented by the global crisis. The Broker also reported from the opening of a new centre of excellence at the University of Massachusetts, USA, and from the conference ‘Towards Knowledge Democracy’, where participants examined the challenges, and the opportunities, at the interface between science, politics and the media (see page 6). Passing comments: ‘We know that decisions are often based on emotions, not on rationality. It seems that the conference was just about rational knowledge. To gain influence in decision making we need both worlds. And this is a rational statement.’ — Ben Verleg, in response to Hanns-J. Neubert’s post, ‘When knowledge fails’. ‘What kind of New Labour nonsense is this? Get some overpaid consultant to assign star ratings to research so the bureaucrats in Whitehall don’t have to spend time thinking. What do they think has been going on ... for the last decade? Have we not got already established, well-regarded services which filter through the bulk of research produced each year?’ — ‘Ruth’, in response to the post, ‘A star is born?’, on DFID’s proposed system for rating development research. >> www.thebrokeronline.eu/blogs By Louise Stoddard, web editor 4 www.thebrokeronline.eu Crisis and opportunity In September, the Development Studies Association (DSA), an influential group of development researchers and practitioners, gathered for their annual conference, ‘Current Crises and New Opportunities’, at the University of Ulster, Northern Ireland. Louise Stoddard blogged from the event, which examined the financial crisis, the changing role of institutions and the future of development. Many speakers gave video interviews, including Robert Chambers (Institute of Development Studies, UK), Andrew Steer (director general for policy and research, DFID) and Santosh Mehrotra (adviser to the Indian government). Participants were asked what lessons had been learned in the past, and whether they thought this was a defining moment for the future of development. The conference included a session led by Chris Whitty, DFID’s head of research, who was seeking reactions to an idea being considered by DFID which would award star quality ratings to research. The ratings would reflect various aspects, including depth, background and potential policy relevance. These ratings could be put into a database and used by decision makers. ‘The issue of how to embed research in the policy process is and has been a key concern within the development community for some time. ... Chris Whitty proposed a very loose design on how to go about this. One member of the audience expressed concern that this model would simplify a much more innovative and delicate process. How can you put a value on knowledge? she asked. ‘Next was a gentleman concerned about the interpretation of research. Who would set the standard? “With respect, in my experience the most ignorant people are usually the most senior”, he said. “These are the people making decisions not reading journals, how do we get to these people?” … The conversation then shifts to the importance of building relationships with those supporting the most senior policy makers.’ Lawrence Haddad, DSA president and director of IDS, reflected on the issues raised in this session in a guest blog posting for The Broker: ‘The debate revolved, it seemed to me, around which research questions one applies such a mechanism to, and what that mechanism looks like, especially who does the grading. On the first issue – one needs questions that decision makers want answers to, and questions that lend themselves to comparisons across contexts. ‘For example, when does conditionality of participant behaviour improve social protection programmes, and when not? Even this question is challenging to create an evidence base for – what qualifies as a social protection programme? What does “improve” mean? But other questions, such as “can pro-poor growth be proenvironment?” and “how do politics shape the use of knowledge?” [will be difficult to answer, and it may be] potentially counterproductive even to try. On the second issue – grading – it would be good to have peers reviewing, but perhaps in an open wiki-style way.’ >> www.thebrokeronline.eu/Crisis-and-Opportunity © Edward Galagan Blogs Communicating change Communication for Sustainable Social Change (CSSC) is a new centre of excellence at the University of Massachusetts, USA. The centre will be an international focal point for interdisciplinary studies in the theory and practice of social change. During the opening of the centre The Broker hosted a blog with contributions from Jan Servaes, director of the CSSC Center, Robert Cox, professor of communication studies, and Donal Carbaugh, chair of the International Studies Council. In a blog post for The Broker, Robert Cox wrote: ‘I want to take a closer look at recent public campaigns to illustrate what I mean by the neglect of the strategic, as well as at the discourses which, I believe, contribute to this neglect: Michel de Certeau’s insistence, for example, that tactics, and not strategy, are the “art of the weak”, and that social change agents are, therefore, forever limited to the terrain of the opportunistic and the temporary. By contrast, I want to propose that we think of the strategic as ... how communication that is more strategically aligned can enable a process of events capable of influencing effects within a larger system.’ Shaping Europe’s international role The decisions that are made over the next three months will shape Europe’s international role in the future. The script that drives global policy making is being rewritten, in response to the financial crisis, climate change and global security challenges. In the opinion article in this issue (page 3), past and present directors of four influential European institutes express their concerns about the direction in which these decisions could take Europe. In the coming months, The Broker will host a discussion blog on this subject, with video messages, blog postings, debate, and weekly summaries of closed forum discussions on the six points highlighted in the article. >> www.thebrokeronline.eu/CommunicatingChange A picture is worth a thousand words The Broker is pleased to welcome cartoonist Quique (alias Enrique Mendizabal) as an in-house blogger. Mendizabal, a research fellow at the Overseas Development Institute, UK, will use his cartoons to explore various development issues and to share his impressions of new research. Quique will report from events around the world. Innovation Dialogue In November 2009, The Broker will blog from Innovation Dialogue, a conference to be held in Wageningen, the Netherlands, which will ask whether it is possible to be strategic in the face of complexity. The dialogue will be shaped by insights from an exceptional group of keynote speakers, including David Snowden, founder of Cognitive Edge, Lisa Jordan, executive director of the Bernard van Leer Foundation, and John Young, director of programmes at the Overseas Development Institute, UK. Their inputs will be complemented by workshop contributions from practitioners and academics dealing with the challenges of change and complexity. No magic bullet for Ethiopian food aid Resident blogger Thea Hilhorst recently visited Ethiopia, and continues her blog focusing on inspirations and dilemmas she faces as professor of humanitarian aid and reconstruction at Wageningen University. In a recent post, Thea highlights the failures of the Ethiopian programme to guarantee emergency food aid: ‘I spent the last week doing some fieldwork in Amhara region … It is already clear that the expectation that the safety net programme will finally resolve food insecurity will not come true. Very few families have successfully graduated from the programme. This should not be a surprise … Nobody we met seriously believes the programme will live up to its expectations, but ... its reputation is growing ... Another disillusion in the making?’ >> www.thebrokeronline.eu/Enrique-Mendizabal >> www.thebrokeronline.eu/blogs >> www.thebrokeronline.eu/Thea-Hilhorst >> www.thebrokeronline.eu/EuropesInternational-Role Web2 savvy Our newest resident blogger is Janelle Ward, assistant professor of media and communication at Erasmus University Rotterdam, and author of the special report ‘Social academia’ in issue 17 of The Broker. In her blog, Janelle reflects on the future of online communication. ‘I am interested in how the academic world is adapting to web 2.0. Are departments encouraging the use of new technologies in the research process? What about publication opportunities – will academics continue to be evaluated on their ability to publish in academic journals, or will academia open itself to alternative forms of sharing research?’ >> www.thebrokeronline.eu/Janelle-Ward The Broker issue 16 October 2009 5 The Leiden agenda Knowledge democracy The Broker recently blogged from the conference ‘Towards Knowledge Democracy’, held in Leiden, the Netherlands. We asked Jean-Paul Marthoz to reflect on the blog postings and reports from the event. C onference organizers know how to put together a programme of experts and speakers, and a balanced mix of lectures and workshops. Conferences are rarely a model of linear thinking, however. Participants can pick and choose among the speakers, and are alternately attentive and uninterested. Each one filters and decodes the presentations according to his or her own interests, background and objectives. The ideas they take home with them are thus more a kaleidoscope than a true reflection of the entire proceedings, rather like witnesses’ descriptions of a crime scene – they all have seen different things and have been impressed by different features. Seen through the eyes of the bloggers, the international conference ‘Towards Knowledge Democracy’, held in Leiden, the Netherlands, in August 2009, certainly fits this pattern. The conference attracted more than 500 participants from 26 countries, so there were indeed ‘many’ Leiden conferences. The blogs extend in all directions, offering many different angles, personal and professional. But there is nevertheless an underlying logic, thanks to the two cornerstones of the conference: the keynote speech and the proposals for future action, the Leiden agenda. Knowledge democracy In his opening address, Roel in ’t Veld, chair of the Council for Research on Spatial Planning, Nature and the Environment (RMNO), framed the conference as a challenge for democracy. ‘As the industrial economy has been combined with mass democracy through universal suffrage and later by the rise of mass media’, he writes, ‘one might suggest that the logical successor of the knowledge economy is a new type of governance, to be called knowledge democracy’. By Jean-Paul Marthoz, professor of international journalism at the Université catholique de Louvain, Belgium. He is also a journalist and writer based in Brussels, Belgium. 6 www.thebrokeronline.eu The rise of ‘media politics’, in ’t Veld believes, has caused ‘the political debate to become superficial and short-term oriented’. It has also fomented populism and the ‘gradual disappearance of checks and balances’. In such a context, what roles will knowledge play in the transition to a knowledge democracy? The Leiden agenda strives to provide an answer to this question. ‘From a democratic perspective, the development, dissemination and use of knowledge [must] meet certain conditions’, says in ’t Veld. It should be independent, relevant for policy makers, credible, legitimate, pluralistic and universally accessible. The words ‘tension’ and ‘conflicts’ formed a constant subtext during the conference. The tension between science and politics was forcefully expressed in a cartoon (see the blog) showing a politician saying: ‘Find me some scientists who share my views’. Blogger Georgina Aboud, of Eldis, UK, quotes Professor Ellen Wayenberg of Ghent University, Belgium, on how the knowledge derived from research is used: ‘Knowledge is used when it suits policy makers, and is deemed flawed when it does not’. The same applies to public participation: ‘policy makers cherry-pick the participatory outcomes that suit them’. In their reflections on ‘knowledge democracy’, most of the bloggers’ contributions seem to have been inspired by the philosophy of the common good, and so acknowledge the need for a long-term perspective. Aboud restates the recommendations of Roel in ’t Veld and Louis Meuleman (RMNO) that ‘we have no right to make decisions which, according to our present knowledge and values, would impose on future generations such costs and risks that we would not be willing to assume by ourselves’. If trade-offs are inevitable, Aboud writes, they should be based on ‘balance; enough alteration in structures to create an environment for change, without developing opportunities for dangerous elements to succeed’. Transdisciplinary approaches ‘Transdisciplinarity’ also appears to have drawn the bloggers’ attention. ‘I like the cross appeal’, Aboud observes. ‘It enhance public participation in general. ‘Knowledge democracy is about the sharing and creation of knowledge in a democratic way’, Jansen suggests. ‘Through websites such as Wikipedia, the power of knowledge is being democratized’. There is a danger that conferences such as this, where the best meet the brightest, become elitist. The real world of mass-media-induced ‘illiteracy’ increases the temptation, since people sometimes reject ‘scientific evidence’ in favour of urban legends or unvalidated stories on the internet. Direct democracy reminds me of Renaissance (wo)men who could switch between science, technology and art in order to unlock secrets and begin finding solutions’. Roland Scholz, of ETH Zurich, Switzerland, is the ‘chief evangelist’ of the ‘transdisciplinary approach’. He defines it as ‘a joint process initiated by non-academics (government, NGOs or industry) or scientists to work on an ‘ill-defined, societally relevant, real-world problem, which includes challenging scientific questions. Non-academics take responsibility for the decisions […], while science takes responsibility for the scientific quality’. The conference was able ‘to draw together people from different sciences and actually have them discuss inter-/ trans-/multidisciplinary research’, comments Pepijn Jansen of Wageningen International. ‘These approaches have been called transdisciplinarity, multi-stakeholder processes, social learning, action research ... Of course, they are not all exactly the same, but […] these processes are all about getting relevant people around the table and letting them generate new knowledge and a shared understanding about a common issue, and hopefully also finding a way to deal with the problem’. ‘The idea of co-creation of new knowledge is so different from research’, consultant Geesje Kruit agrees. ‘It implies system innovation and action! As Chris Peterson (Michigan State University, USA) states, we should engage stakeholders as our peers’. There was a sense, however, that among these ‘relevant people’, too many belonged to the familiar coterie of science, academia, government or the media. Aboud observes that this was a ‘very top-down conference, predominantly white male academics’, while Jansen adds that ‘I was hoping to bump into my neighbour or perhaps the bus driver’. Bart Jan Krouwel of Rabobank Nederland chooses to focus on engagement with the corporate world. ‘Talking about interdisciplinary knowledge, we need more integrated partnerships between researchers and businessmen to develop – together – more innovations’, he writes. But his fellow bloggers are convinced that knowledge should help ‘History shows that knowledge societies are rarely democratic’, ponders Hanns-J. Neubert of the European Union of Science Journalists’ Associations. ‘Instead, they tend to be technocracies. Knowledge alone cannot improve democracy’. ‘Citizen participation’ became a conference buzzword: how do we prevent citizens feeling they are subjects and not agents of change. How do we include the public in the knowledge process? How, for instance, can we mix parliamentary and new forms of direct democracy? At a time when growing numbers of citizens feel disenfranchised, marginalized or excluded, the challenge is to integrate them and their knowledge, says consultant Geesje Kuit. ‘Not the solutions, but how to get them involved, or interested, is the issue.’ Too much consensus is another risk. Knowledge needs to be nurtured by encouraging ‘differing and conflicting views’. ‘The real challenge is finding ways of dealing with people who do not share our values’, Jansen notes. ‘We cannot be really innovative if we don’t welcome outside views’. Experimentation is the name of the game. ‘Perhaps central to this conference – and the idea of knowledge democracy – is that we need to alter institutions and reshape ill-fitting concepts, while experimenting with new ideas to see what works’, Aboud concludes. Some degree of modesty seems most welcome. ‘We scientists are not very innovative in our thinking about innovation’, Jansen comments after two days at the conference. Hanns-J. Neubert ends on a sceptical note: ‘All the knowledge available obviously does not prevent a democracy from taking irrational, even stupid decisions, while investing a good deal of society’s economic and intellectual wealth in dead-end technologies’. He made this comment after fighting his way through a traffic jam on his way home. ‘Democracies still have a long way to go…’, he observes. Well, now they have a new route map: the Leiden agenda. □ www.thebrokeronline.eu/Knowledge-Democracy □ www.knowledgedemocracy.nl The Broker issue 16 October 2009 7 Fixing fragile states Rethinking state building Although the international community has focused on how to fix fragile states, none of its standard remedies has addressed the fundamental problems. Fractured societies require a new approach, one that is more firmly rooted in indigenous capacities and institutions. M any countries struggle with weak governance, sectarian conflict and poor economic prospects, unable either to develop or democratize successfully. Although in recent years the international community has focused on how to fix these fragile states, none of its standard remedies – more aid, economic reform and larger peacekeeping forces – has really addressed the fundamental problems troubling these places. Indeed, such strategies can weaken the already feeble ties between the formal state and its surrounding society, exacerbating the difficulties that plague such countries. The political illegitimacy and poor governance that debilitate countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Sudan, Bolivia, Somalia and Iraq can be traced to many factors – colonialism, for instance – that have combined to detach states from their environments, governments from their societies, and elites from their citizens. Whereas a successful state uses local identities, local capacities and local institutions to promote its development, a dysfunctional state’s governing structures undermine these indigenous assets. As a consequence, the state cannot leverage its people’s history and customs to construct effective formal institutions with wide legitimacy; nor can it draw on the social capital embedded in cohesive groups to facilitate economic, political and social intercourse; and nor is it able to employ the traditional governing capacities of citizens to run the affairs of state. Fifteen years running businesses in developing countries has taught me that international efforts to help these By Seth Kaplan, who advises corporations and international organizations. He is the author of Fixing Fragile States: A New Paradigm for Development (Praeger, 2008). www.sethkaplan.org 8 www.thebrokeronline.eu summary •Development projects are often designed around a generic model of state building and implemented with inadequate attention to the local social, cultural and institutional context. •If their assistance is to translate into locally propelled development, international actors must seek locally appropriate solutions for problems of governance, land and resource management, and knowledge transfer. •If foreign assistance is to become a catalyst for state building, Westerners must adopt a far more humble and longer-term perspective. •Helping underdeveloped countries should be about connecting the state to its surrounding society. A country without an institutional structure that its people regard as legitimate is unlikely to foster the conditions necessary for development. countries will start proving effective only when they address these issues head on. As I write in my book, Fixing Fragile States, fractured societies call out for a new approach, one that is more firmly rooted in indigenous capacities and institutions, and more likely to foster sustainable state models built on legitimacy and social cohesion.1 The nature of development Development is not, as the policies of Western development agencies imply, a technocratic exercise in which poor countries import an inflexible formula devised in distant capitals. On the contrary, development is an organic process that slowly transforms how the members of a society work together. Although improvements in areas such as education and healthcare can better prepare individuals to participate in development, a country’s ability to advance is crucially tied to its citizens’ ability to cooperate – both among Hollandse Hoogte / Jehad Nga Hole in a wall, Mogadishu, August 2009. For the first time in decades, Somalia’s leader, President Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed, has both widespread grassroots support inside the country and extensive help from foreign governments. themselves and in partnership with the state – in increasingly sophisticated ways. Development therefore needs to be firmly rooted in communities that possess strong social networks, durable shared loyalties, widely accepted institutions and deep reservoirs of social capital. The non-Western countries that have developed most successfully – China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan – have all been able to make use of millennia of common social, economic and political evolution, and all have strong identities that are underpinned by some of the world’s most sophisticated institutions. These cohesive groups of people all have high levels of social capital, well established informal mechanisms for working together, and deep reserves of group affinity that could be funnelled towards national modernization missions. Outside northeast Asia, the countries that have achieved the most progress in terms of development have likewise been able to depend on the social cohesion and social capital of people with common backgrounds. The most successful countries in Africa and the Middle East – Botswana, Somaliland, Turkey and Kuwait – are all built upon traditional identities and institutions accepted by the great majority of their citizens. In contrast, countries whose governments are the least dependent on indigenous social structures – such as Nigeria, the DRC and Syria – are much more likely to have corrupt officials, illegitimate leaders and ineffective systems of governance. India is one of the very few exceptions to this general pattern. At independence in 1947, it had an elite that was quite cohesive because it had acclimated itself to the relatively robust national identity and state structures that the colonizers had nurtured. It was also one of the few colonies with both the administrative and military capacity and the transportation and communication infrastructure to govern its territory. Fragile states were born with none of these assets. To the contrary, their colonial legacy is one of weak, inappropriate institutions and a profoundly fragmented political identity. Together, these two structural problems preclude the formation of a cohesive population and prevent the incorporation of indigenous institutions and capacities into formal state structures. These countries were obliged to use alien state systems that could work only if every member of their heterogeneous societies learned and embraced the same, alien culture – complete with its foreign language, laws and ways of working together. Yet, the formal mechanisms of those state systems were – and remain – far too weak to compel such cultural reorientation, or even to win gradual and grudging acceptance over time by demonstrating their potency and impartiality. The Broker issue 16 October 2009 > 9 Insofar as they do exhibit potency, it is the power to exclude rather than include. Many Latin American countries, for instance, have for centuries distributed resources and services inequitably while suppressing indigenous languages, religions, judicial systems, land management schemes and symbols of identity. The instability that has racked Bolivia, Ecuador, Guatemala and Venezuela in recent years is in large part blowback from hundreds of years of institutional alienation. The combination of fractured societies and weak government warps incentives, encouraging short-term opportunism at the expense of long-term investments that could advance development. Society becomes obsessed by the conflict between identity groups, not with generating wealth or boosting national prestige. Meanwhile, formal governing bodies and regulations, disconnected from the informal institutional frameworks that guide people’s behaviour, command only superficial allegiance and compliance. Real life goes on outside them. State laws go unheeded because no one acknowledges them as legitimate. In such an environment, corrupt governments, crooked systems of justice and weak property rights are inevitable. Somalia and the secessionist territory of Somaliland offer one of the best contrasts between state building using imported institutional pillars, and state building using indigenous ones. The international community has tried no fewer than 15 times since the dissolution of the Somali state in 1991 to rebuild it in a top-down fashion – and 15 times it has failed. Isolated from political realities within the country, aid agencies, embassies and multilateral organizations have repeatedly misread the country’s political dynamics and forced upon it what political scientist Ken Menkhaus describes as ‘unimaginative, non-strategic, template-driven policy responses with little relevance to the Somali context and little input from Somali voices’. As a result, ‘Somalis seeking to extricate their country from this deadly and protracted crisis have to do so in spite of, not because of, involvement by the international community’.1 In contrast, Somaliland, which declared independence from Somalia in 1991, has built its state institutions by adopting a bottom-up approach that takes advantage of longstanding and widely accepted clan structures. Offered little external help, it has been forced to depend on its own resources, capacities and institutions. Today, it is the most democratic state in the region and has established enough stability and prosperity to attract migrants from around the Horn of Africa. Yet the international community refuses to recognize Somaliland and persists in its Sisyphean efforts to forge a centralized Somali state. What Menkhaus has said about Somalia applies to many other failed and fragile states: ‘These extensive and intensive [informal] mechanisms [of self-government] . . . are virtually invisible to external observers, whose sole preoccupation is often with the one structure that actually provides the least amount of rule of law to Somalis – the central state’. 10 www.thebrokeronline.eu The problem with international policies Most Western policy makers and practitioners today pay lip service to the idea that states will not prosper unless they are built by local people using local resources. But the great majority of development projects continue to be designed around a generic model of state building, and to be implemented with inadequate attention to the local social, cultural and institutional context. Many fragile states have political geographies, infrastructures and governance capacities that make the standard Western model of state building (with its top-down state structures and strong emphasis on formal institutions and methods of holding officials accountable) highly problematic. Sprawling countries with diverse populations, such as the DRC and Sudan, are unlikely ever to produce stable regimes unless they decentralize far more authority to their regions and find a way to take advantage of local populations’ indigenous capacity for institution building. National leaders have little incentive to serve distant areas populated by disparate groups because they are viewed more as competitors for state power than as compatriots. Thin road networks, limited administrative resources and weak nationwide societal bonds undercut the capacity of governments to project authority and serve their populations. In defiance of these realities, the recent UN-coordinated programme to stabilize the DRC concentrated first on national elections – at a cost of over US$500 million. Unsurprisingly, stability continues to elude the DRC. But even in more compact countries there is a need to find ways to take advantage of indigenous capacities – and narrow the gap between informal and formal institutions. Most developing countries transact business, determine ownership, adjudicate disputes and generally regulate their affairs using informal mechanisms (this was true, too, of many of today’s rich states during their formative periods). As the UK’s Institute of Development Studies (IDS) has noted, ‘the astonishing economic growth of countries in East Asia’ was achieved ‘despite a lack of formal institutions generally thought essential to good governance. Research in China shows how informal relations effectively substituted for more formal property rights in the early stages of market-led growth’. One of the reasons fragile states have such difficulty in constructing effective systems of governance is that their foreign-imposed formal institutions are weak, and they conflict and compete with – and lose to – the informal institutions that drive much behaviour. ‘Informal institutions structure incentives in ways that are incompatible with the formal rules: to follow one rule, actors must violate another’, political scientists Gretchen Helmke and Steven Levitsky believe. ‘Putting in place the formal institutions that have undergirded the spectacular growth of the developed world does not produce the desired results’, explains Nobel Prize winner Douglass North. ‘That is because the formal rules must be complemented by informal norms of behaviour (and enforcement characteristics) to get the desired results’. Hollandse Hoogte / John Stanmeyer The pattern established when the colonial powers arrived and built their administrations on top of, and disconnected from, local societies was essentially continued in most of today’s fragile states at independence: governments are largely divorced from, and autonomous of, the societies that they are supposed to serve. In such environments, an enormous gap separates a small cadre that manipulates or controls the state, and the general population, who are highly ambivalent at best towards their own government. Western policy has if anything only reinforced these trends. As a USAID report by Carolyn Logan concluded, the ‘political disconnection [that existed at independence between state and society] was exacerbated by the economic disconnection that arose from the growing availability of external financial support. As the state became increasingly dependent on these foreign resources for its survival, it also grew increasingly autonomous of its own society and local resources and so lost interest in that resource base as anything other than a source of plunder’. The IDS report similarly pointed to ‘the complicity of rich, highly developed countries in the governance problems of poor countries and to the need for external actors to take much more care about the impact of their actions on internal incentives and relationships in poor countries’. Abundant natural resources, such as oil, when controlled by a narrow ruling elite, can yield a similar result or exacerbate a society’s dysfunctionality. A new approach to state building States deeply enmeshed with their surrounding society – financially dependent, geographically appropriate, institutionally synchronized and socio-culturally representative – are far more likely to be well governed than After decades of war and predatory regimes, Uganda is rebuilding itself from the bottom up. Villagers in Rhino, northern Uganda, elect their local council representatives. those detached from their citizens. The peoples of Africa, the Middle East, Latin America and Central Asia have enormous political, socio-economic and cultural resources, built up over centuries, that can serve as the foundation for political, economic and social development. What they most need in terms of outside assistance are innovative forms of state building that take advantage of those resources. This does not mean that conventional, Western political models have no relevance to non-Western societies, but it does mean that those models need to be adapted to accommodate indigenous governance models, patterns of behaviour, needs, realities and capacities. International actors must place far more emphasis on seeking locally appropriate solutions for problems of governance, land and resource management, and knowledge transfer if their assistance is ever going to translate into locally propelled – and thus sustainable – development. The goal should not be centralized states with Western-style laws and a democracy defined solely in terms of regular elections. Instead, aid agencies should strive to promote capable, inclusive, participatory, responsive and accountable governments, no matter what form they take. One way to accomplish this is to channel foreign aid away from corrupt and centralized governments and towards locally accountable entities, both governmental and nongovernmental. Dambisa Moyo’s recent book Dead Aid surely throws the baby out with the bathwater in recommending massive cuts in Western assistance, which she describes as ‘an unmitigated disaster’ for the developing world.1 But she is surely also right to condemn capital transfers that do nothing except sustain African despots and stifle entrepreneurship. Foreign cash has its place in kick-starting development, but only if it is used in politically astute ways The Broker issue 16 October 2009 > 11 that reinforce the natural accountability mechanisms of society, and that do not prop up shell-like government organs unresponsive to the needs of their own citizens. The debate sparked by Dead Aid has also called attention to the fact that foreign assistance comes in many forms other than financial. As development practitioner Carol Peasley points out, ‘Good aid involves more than money. It responds to locally driven needs and includes technical assistance, institution building with governments and civil society, and the training of individuals’. Another change that Western agencies need to embrace is attitudinal. If foreign assistance is to become a catalyst for state building, Westerners must adopt a far more humble and longer-term perspective. Teams of country specialists should spend substantial periods of time in the field and should live and work among ‘ordinary’ people rather than alongside the elites and Westernized parts of civil society. Doing so will give them the opportunity to discover exactly how best to target aid to enhance a broad range of governing capacities, both formal and informal, modern and traditional. Indigenous institutions From the Persian Gulf to Latin America, countries have sought to bolster their legitimacy and effectiveness by integrating various aspects of indigenous institutions – such as land tenure arrangements, customary law and traditional symbols – into formal mechanisms of governance. The international community must encourage similar steps if its aid programmes are to empower local people. Literacy and training programmes – a major component of some international aid programmes – would be far more effective if they focused on improving people’s fluency, not in one or another European language, but in indigenous tongues such as Arabic, Hausa and Punjabi. Forcing indigenous peoples in Latin America to learn Spanish, say, or obliging non-Arabs in African countries to use Arabic, often disadvantages – and even disenfranchises – large segments of the population. In many cases, the best chance for leveraging local capacities and institutions and improving governance will be to focus on building up local governments and tying them as closely as possible to their local communities. In some cases (especially in rural areas and small cities) this may mean trying to integrate governing structures and laws with traditional identities and social codes, and including chiefs and village elders where they retain strong legitimacy. But in many large cities whose populations are diverse and increasingly divorced from their traditional roots, the best way to introduce accountability into state organs is to structure them around greatly empowered urban administrations. One should not idealize local governments. As James Manor of the World Bank says, they are often ‘afflicted by parochialism, factionalism, the danger of elite capture, inequity and injustice’ and require ‘resources, support and constructive initiatives from agencies (governmental and 12 www.thebrokeronline.eu non-governmental) at higher levels’. Even so, devolving government functions to villages, towns and city districts will bring citizens and government officials into face-to-face contact, which in turn will ‘allow greater scope for establishing trust, accommodation and a sense of mutuality than do the more anonymous relationships that exist at higher levels. The surviving human resources and bonds at the local level provide a platform on which to mount efforts at reconstruction’. For example, after decades of war and predatory regimes, Uganda has sought to rebuild itself from the bottom up by empowering local councils.1 Giving local – and provincial – governments greater authority to raise revenue, and helping them build up their capacity to generate and collect taxes, should make them more dependent on local companies and other taxpayers. Establishing various forms of iterative accountability loops and decentralized democratic bodies such as oversight committees, deliberative forms of public participation and traditional forms of consultation can institutionalize processes that tie the state more closely to society, thereby making it more legitimate, more accountable, more reflective of people’s needs, and more effective in the delivery of public services. Over time, accountable local governments in one region can be linked horizontally to those in other regions and vertically to higher-level governing bodies, integrating the more effective elements of a state and slowly changing the dynamics of a whole country. States cannot be made to work from the outside, but outside assistance – of the right sort – is essential. International action should focus on facilitating local processes, leveraging local capacities and complementing local actions, so that local citizens can create governance systems appropriate to their surroundings. Helping underdeveloped countries should not be about propping up the state, but rather about connecting it – and making it accountable where possible – to its surrounding society. A country that cannot produce an institutional structure that its people regard as legitimate – because it represents their histories, desires and realities – is unlikely to foster the conditions necessary for development. This basic concept needs to frame all state-building programmes. □ IDS (2005) Signposts to More Effective States: Responding to Governance Challenges in Developing Countries. Institute of Development Studies, UK. □ Kaplan, S. (2008) Fixing Fragile States: A New Paradigm for Development. Praeger Security International. □ Manor, J. (ed) (2007) Aid that Works: Successful Development in Fragile States. World Bank. □ Menkhaus, K. (2008) Somalia: A Country in Peril, a Policy Nightmare. Enough Project Strategy Paper. □ Moyo, D. (2009) Dead Aid:Why Aid Is Not Working and How There Is a Better Way for Africa. Farrar, Straus, Giroux. SPECIAL REPORT Including the rural poor in global markets Global value chains – the production, processing and marketing of products ‘from farm to fork’ – now link together producers, traders, processors, manufacturers, retailers and consumers. Due to changing market conditions and consumer demands, entrepreneurs in developing countries are increasingly becoming integrated into the world trading system. Value chain development is a key concept in strategies to reduce rural poverty in developing countries. For entrepreneurs, such chains promise a way to access new markets as well as to add value to their products. But value chains often exclude the most vulnerable farmers. And those who are included often benefit only marginally due to the unequal distribution of power, as well as failures of markets and governments. So what opportunities are available to small entrepreneurs to participate in a global value chains, and what are the bottlenecks? One strategy involves improving knowledge and information flows to enable them to ‘upgrade’ their businesses. But real empowerment requires much more: rural entrepreneurs need to become involved in the management of value chains. Becoming organized into cooperatives is one way they can achieve this, although this presents its own challenges. Interventions to promote value chain development will have a positive impact on rural livelihoods only if local power relations (including gender relations) relations are taken into account, and if the poor themselves take the lead in defining what is good for them. In this special report, Anna Laven discusses what rural entrepreneurs can do to upgrade their operations and strengthen their economic power within global value chains. Linda Mayoux offers a gender perspective of value chain development, and Malcolm Harper describes how small farmers in India have succeeded in becoming part of modern, integrated value chains. Roldan Muradian and Ellen Mangnus discuss entrepreneurship in cooperatives, and David Jean Laniel examines the implications of shifts in international trade for developing countries. Alamy / John Eccles The power of value chains 1 To read the full versions of all the articles in this special report, visit www.thebrokeronline.eu. The Broker issue 16 October 2009 13 SPECIAL REPORT Empowering rural entrepreneurs Global value chains offer many opportunities for rural entrepreneurs in developing countries to become competitive actors in world markets. But unless local power relations are taken into account, value chain development is unlikely to reduce poverty. P roponents of globalization have long argued that free trade will lead to economic growth for all. However, since it is evident that gains from globalization are not distributed equally, NGOs and policy makers are promoting the development of global value chains that include small farmers and entrepreneurs, as a way to lift millions out of poverty. But are they taking into account all the factors that determine who benefits and who remains excluded from value chains? Since the late 1990s, researchers have used global value chain (GVC) analysis to describe various agricultural commodity chains, including cocoa, coffee, cotton and tobacco. Development agencies and policy makers have also adopted GVC analysis to assist them in drafting agricultural development strategies. Such research has provided insights into opportunities for the poor to benefit from globalization. But the findings of some recent GVC analyses are alarming. Tilman Altenburg of the German Development Institute in Bonn, for example, believes that ‘value chains become more exclusive as small-scale producers fail to meet [the] rising scale and standard requirements’ imposed by those who control the chains.1 Many researchers concerned with the exclusion of small entrepreneurs agree. In the cocoa sector, for instance, it is expected that only a few larger or more innovative farmers will be able to continue producing cocoa for the world market in the future. Smaller, non-competitive producers will be forced to seek alternative sources of income. This trend is reinforcing inequalities and threatening pro-poor development. To counteract this, and to ensure that rural entrepreneurs can grasp opportunities for upgrading, insights are required into the distribution of power, both within the value chain and locally. Chain governance The issue of the governance of value chains is crucial. Authority and power relations among buyers, processors and producers determine how incomes are distributed, as well as the conditions under which small producers are included in the global division of labour. These power relations By Anna Laven, adviser on sustainable economic development at the Royal Tropical Institute (KIT), Amsterdam, the Netherlands. 14 www.thebrokeronline.eu determine whether value chains will have an impact in terms of poverty reduction. Value chains are part of larger institutional frameworks. They receive external inputs in the form of knowledge and they are influenced by advocacy groups (trade unions, NGOs), and by the policy priorities of national governments or international bodies such as the World Trade Organization. They are also affected by social structures such as the level of organization of producers, or traditional hierarchical relations. These institutional frameworks either provide effective channels through which value chains can be ‘upgraded’, or they create barriers that can block exchanges between actors in the chain. Agricultural value chains are increasingly driven by multinational traders and food processors. They now From complete goods to inputs David Jean Laniel, trade analyst, Canada Although trade has evolved in the last two decades, shifting from complete goods to intermediary inputs, our understanding of its dynamics has failed to keep pace. As a result, the policy options conferred to developing countries that wish to industrialize in such a context appear disjointed. Trade theorists still believe that the fact that some parts of manufacturing processes can now be done by small, specialized firms – the ‘slicing of the value chain’, as Paul Krugman put it – is promising for developing countries. It would enable them to develop a comparative advantage in an area where they might not have had one before. While appealing, this line of thinking disregards the firm and its implications in a setting where the hierarchal power within global value chains limits the assumed efficiency of transactions between buyers and sellers. This cancels out two benefits for developing countries: economies of scope and technological upgrading. Thus, the trade in specialized goods presents a paradox. While it may provide opportunities for developing countries to integrate into world markets, it does not create the proper environment to allow for the formation of high value-added, export-based manufacturing. For the full text of this article, visit The Broker website. Hollandse Hoogte / Jessica Dimmock Young farm labourers harvesting cocoa in Côte d’Ivoire. determine quality standards, and have the final say in linking producers to markets. Through takeovers and mergers, the multinationals have gradually increased the scale of their operations, and in the process have gained considerable economic and political power. But with increasing scale comes risk. The introduction of market reforms in many producing countries meant that the multinational buyers of primary commodities were vulnerable to the poor performance of their suppliers, and thus became more insistent on controlling product and process quality specifications further down the value chain. Further factors that have led to multinational traders and processors controlling value chains include changing consumer demands, and the growing influence of retailers and supermarkets. Growing numbers of consumers want to know, for example, exactly where their coffee comes from, all the way back to a farm in, say, Costa Rica. Some consumers prefer to buy organic products, such as t-shirts made of organic cotton, while others want to be sure that child labour was not used to produce the products they buy. This so-called ‘traceability’ is a quality management tool and is increasingly used as marketing strategy for niche products. Consumer satisfaction has become a common goal – and concern – of all actors in many supply chains. Firms are under pressure to ensure that not only their own companies but also producers and suppliers throughout the entire chain comply with internationally agreed industry codes of conduct. As a result, international traders and food processors have become more dependent on the local suppliers operating at the bottom of a chain. This also entails greater responsibility, in particular to provide producers with the information and the new technologies they need to comply with new production and process standards. Upgrading If small producers in developing countries are to cope with the challenges of globalization and increased competition, it is essential that they improve their businesses. This may involve acquiring new capabilities that enable them to participate in particular chains, or to access new market segments, and in the process gradually move up the value chain.1 There are various options for upgrading, all of which require improved access to information and knowledge. •product upgrading: moving into more sophisticated product lines with increased product value; •process upgrading: transforming inputs into outputs more efficiently by reorganizing the production system or introducing superior technologies; •functional upgrading: acquiring new, superior functions in the chain, such as design or marketing; or •inter-sectoral upgrading: applying newly acquired competences to move into a new sector. Here too, power relations play a part. For weaker actors, upgrading can be enabled or hindered by more powerful The Broker issue 16 October 2009 > 15 SPECIAL REPORT From farm to fork: the numerous factors that influence gobal value chains. KIT/IIRR (forthcoming) Value Chain Finance: Beyond Microfinance for Rural Entrepreneurs. KIT Publishers, Amsterdam. players, including governments, and by existing social structures. For example, research and extension services can support cotton farmers in shifting from conventional to organic cotton, which fetches a price premium. But the size of this premium is negotiated between buyers and sellers, and can fluctuate from year to year, affecting the decisions of cotton farmers on whether to invest in improving their plantations. The gains resulting from upgrading strategies are often unequally distributed. For example, fair trade organizations aim to pay poor farmers a fair price for their produce, but membership of such schemes is often linked to land ownership. As a result, the benefits of fair trade often go to male landowners, and not to the migrant labourers and female farmers who do not have title to the land they work. Many development initiatives have attempted to benefit small producers by shortening value chains. In practice, this results in the exclusion of middlemen, who may also be poor and may have difficulty finding alternative employment. Thus the weakest actors in a chain often enjoy very few opportunities to upgrade their businesses. However, as Malcolm Harper shows (page 19), given the right circumstances, small producers can be profitably included in value chains. Empowerment In order to be profitably included in value chains, farmers and small producers need to make their own informed decisions about their work and livelihoods. In fact, empowerment can lead to ‘self-exclusion’, if farmers choose to remain outside or leave a chain because they foresee too little profit and too many risks. Chain empowerment means that farmers strengthen their capacity to manage parts of a chain or specific activities. Two aspects are important: who does what in the chain (vertical integration), and who determines how things are done (horizontal integration). Farmers may be concerned only with production: they prepare the land, plant seeds, apply fertilizer, control pests and weeds, and harvest the crop when it is 16 www.thebrokeronline.eu mature. But they may also be involved in activities higher up in a chain, including sorting and grading, processing or trading their produce. If farmers are involved in a wide range of activities, this contributes to their empowerment. But true chain empowerment requires that these producers gain economic power by becoming involved in managing the chain. Farmers can participate in controlling the terms of payment, defining grades and standards, or managing innovation.1 One way they can obtain the power to do this is to set up their own organizations (see box, page 20). Inclusion with and for the poor Including the poor in value chains requires their empowerment through improved competences, resources and technology. Any GVC analysis should start from the recognition that relations in a value chain are determined not only by shared goals and interests, but just as much by power and diverging interests. Women workers and rural entrepreneurs are perhaps the most familiar victims, as Linda Mayoux points out (page 17). The potential of interventions to strengthen value chains and to empower small farmers in developing countries will remain limited as long as poor women and men cannot negotiate the conditions under which they want to participate. As long as they are unable to do this, being included in a global value chain can be a rather risky business, rather than an opportunity for growth. The author wishes to thank Bart de Steenhuijsen Piters (KIT, Amsterdam) and Peter Knorringa and Bert Helmsing (ISS, The Hague) for their comments on earlier drafts of this article. □ Gibbon, P. and Ponte, S. (2005) Trading Down: Africa,Value Chains, and the Global Economy. Temple University Press. □ Peppelenbos, L. and Mundy, P. (eds) (2008) Trading Up: Building Cooperation between Farmers and Traders in Africa. KIT/IIRR. Gender inequalities affect the ways in which value chains operate at all levels. Promoting gender justice can result in a ‘quadruple win–win’, benefiting women, men and enterprises throughout the chain, as well as national economies. Hollandse Hoogte / Benoit Decout Engendering benefits for all Production line in a chocolate factory. W omen are important as producers and workers in most value chains, supplying national and international markets with both traditional and high-value products such as textiles, coffee and cocoa. Yet there is evidence that women are often excluded from the more profitable parts of agricultural and manufacturing chains. Women-owned businesses face many more constraints than those run by men, and have more limited access to financial and other services. In multinational manufacturing and agricultural chains, even where enterprises are governed by ethical codes, there is often a division of labour based on gender stereotypes. Permanent and full-time work may be reserved for men, and women’s work is arbitrarily assumed to be of lower value. For commodities like coffee and cocoa, women often do most of the cultivation. But because the land usually belongs to their husbands, women are not eligible to join cooperatives or receive credit, and are not targeted in technical training. Fair trade and ethical codes of conduct generally only cover permanent workers, excluding the majority of women who are either part-time/casual workers or unpaid family workers. The Common Code for the Coffee Community (2004), for example, does mention gender equity, but does not carry this through to a commitment to gender equality in access to services or support changes at the household level. Value chain interventions may actually increase such disparities. Recent research by the World Bank, IFPRI and others, shows that gender inequalities are a key constraint on economic growth and a major cause of poverty.1 Value chain interventions aim to contribute to poverty reduction by making sure that workers and small producers are the main beneficiaries of the upgrading. But most of the interventions continue to ignore gender issues. As a result, gender inequalities actually increase, which further contributes to the high gender disparities on all human development indicators. For instance, when chain interventions introduce organic cultivation, this often increases women’s labour more than that of men, but it does not necessarily increase women’s control of income. Their incomes may even fall as women, already overworked, are unable to reduce the time they spend growing food, and so spend less time on their own economic activities. Low incomes, lack of control over incomes and gender discrimination in access to credit and training reinforce a cycle whereby women farmers are unable to invest in their crops or buy more fertile land, leading to lower yields and inefficiency in production. Promoting women’s brands Many value chain analyses recommend setting up women’s cooperatives in economic activities dominated by women. Evidence shows that these are only likely to succeed if women’s property rights and training are paid due attention. Where this is done, it is possible to set up cooperatives, or specific women’s brands in new or even male-dominated crops, in order to establish women as effective and competitive producers in their own right. One successful example, from Peru, is Cafe Femenino, a women’s coffee brand that was conceived in response to the negligible presence of women in coffee producer cooperatives despite their prominent role in production. The programme pays the women directly, significantly increasing their control over household incomes. By 2008, over 1000 women were involved in developing and producing quality coffee. The venture has boosted their confidence and increased their bargaining strength with more powerful actors in the chain, including banks and traders. This then has a spin-off effect in changing market perceptions and conditions for other women both locally and nationally. Not all women’s cooperatives have been so successful, however. Many projects have been very maternalistic, > By Linda Mayoux, global consultant for the Women’s Empowerment Mainstreaming and Networking (WEMAN) programme, Oxfam Novib, the Netherlands. The Broker issue 16 October 2009 17 SPECIAL REPORT attempting to shelter women from the market rather than increase their integration by changing market structures. Other women’s cooperatives have proved unsustainable, either due to their lack of attention to developing women’s independent entrepreneurial capacities, or because men often take over as soon as they become profitable. This shows that a major problem of women’s subordinate role in value chains lies in the entrenched gender inequalities at community and household levels. Setting up separate women’s cooperatives can therefore only ever be part of a solution. In some chains a better strategy may be to address market constraints directly through policy change, and to build up women’s individual abilities to engage in the market, developing their own forms of collaboration as they go along. Addressing underlying inequalities Value chain interventions will have limited success unless they address the underlying inequalities and discrimination that cause women’s, and poor men’s, lack of negotiating power and vulnerability within value chains. It is therefore increasingly argued that gender mainstreaming is needed at a number of interlinked levels, all of which directly affect the effectiveness of value chain development.1 • Household and community: to address gender inequalities in terms of power and access to resources, including rights to land and other assets, incomes, division of labour, violence and social constraints on women’s mobility. • Markets: to remove gender discrimination in access to inputs, land, employment and the ability to trade freely and participate in management of markets. • Policy level: to reinforce all of the above through legislation backed by legal and regulatory systems, including for cooperatives, property, labour rights, gender-based violence, as well as improved social support through both market-based and public services, and taxation. • Institutional level: to integrate gender analysis into all value chain analysis, to remove gender discrimination in access to financial services (enabling women to graduate from small savings and loans) and training, to integrate gender issues into services for both women and men, and to increase women’s meaningful participation in economic decision making and planning at all levels. It is frequently assumed that men are opposed to gender equity, but this is by no means always the case. Women’s empowerment and gender equity can result in a win–win for both, as is evident from experience with the Gender Action Learning System (GALS), a participatory methodology used with 1500 coffee producers in western Uganda. The use of this methodology catalyzed a process of community-led change in which women and men developed their visions of a happy future together, by analyzing the gender opportunities and the constraints that prevent them from achieving this, and developing personal and livelihood development plans to move forward. Women have used the GALS methodology to develop business plans and market analyses, thereby gaining respect from the men within their communities and building support 18 www.thebrokeronline.eu for their activities. Over 500 men have developed plans to change their behaviour in relation to issues like alcoholism, adultery, violence and sharing household work, and many of these have been implemented. Men as well as women now recognize that women do a large part of the work, and they have come to question traditional power relations, even addressing inequalities in land ownership. Transparency and relations with local government have also improved, benefiting the whole community. The quadruple ‘win–win’ The experience in Uganda shows that whole communities, including women and men, can benefit from value chain interventions that take gender equity as their starting point. But there is more to be gained. The benefits of a gender focus to enterprises further up the chain are also considerable. Where women are empowered and organized, they are more able to produce high-quality goods and manage their livelihoods so that they are more flexible to market demand. In Uganda, Kampala coffee traders are now seeking to deal directly with the women’s groups. In Kenya, flower and textile exporters report that if their women workers are happy and well trained, there is less absenteeism and they have fewer problems in recruitment. Although there will always be some conflict of interest between traders and producers, and employers and employees, ethical behaviour and developing good relationships and trust are now established parts of ‘win–win’ supply chain development. The challenge is to develop participatory processes, like the GALS methodology, that can be implemented by enterprises as well as development agencies, to negotiate win–win strategies that incorporate gender concerns. The final part of the quadruple win–win is for national economies. When over half the population is not able to work efficiently because of cultural, ideological and/or political constraints, this inevitably undermines economic growth. The productivity benefits of addressing gender inequalities in value chains for major commodities like coffee, where women do most of the work, should therefore be obvious. □ Farnworth, C. and Ragasa, C. (2008) Gender and agricultural markets. Gender in Agriculture Sourcebook. World Bank, FAO and IFAD, pp.173–228. □ Solidaridad (2009) The Role of Certification and Producer Support in Promoting Gender Equality in Cocoa Production, Solidaridad and Oxfam Novib. □ Mayoux, L. and Mackie, G. (2008) Making the Strongest Links: A Practical Guide to Mainstreaming Gender Analysis in Value Chain Development. Addis Ababa, ILO. □ Quisumbing, A.R. and Pandolfelli, L. (2009) Promising Approaches to Address the Needs of Poor Female Farmers. IFPRI Note 13. 1 For longer versions of this and other articles in this special report, visit www.thebrokeronline.eu. Beyond the retail revolution Hollandse Hoogte/ Gamma The retail revolution is threatening the livelihoods of millions of farmers in many developing countries. But recent research in India demonstrates that it is possible for small farmers and artisans to be included in modern, integrated value chains. I ndia is a country of small farmers. About two-thirds of its 1.1 billion people still live in rural areas and farming is the mainstay of their livelihoods. But it is also a country of massive change. India’s call centres and software houses, and the lavish lifestyles of its billionaires, may be well known, but for the average urban middle-class Indian one of the most dramatic changes has been the long-delayed retail revolution. ‘Modern’ retailing – in the form of self-service supermarkets – has come late to India. In attempts to maintain employment, the central and state governments resisted change in retailing for longer than in any other country. With these barriers now broken, however, it is estimated that modern retailing in India is growing at an unprecedented rate of 40% per annum. Mismatched chains How do modern retailing and the growth of exports affect India’s small producers? There is a widening mismatch between traditional small producers and the new multibranch retailers. In 2008 the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) warned that India’s farmers were in for a ‘painful shock’ because modern retail chains require large volumes of standardized products, delivered at precise times and to closely specified high quality standards.1 These large companies also tend to pay slowly. Indian farmers are feeling the impact just like small producers in Malaysia and Thailand did before them. In India, such changes have already caused serious tensions. Rioters have attacked and burned modern supermarkets, and in Uttar Pradesh (home to many of India’s poorest small farmers) the state government forbade supermarkets to sell fresh produce. The protesters often march under the hammer and sickle, which is still a powerful political symbol in India. Marx seems to have been right: progress seems inevitably to be associated with increasing inequity. But India can never retreat to the economic isolation that characterized its first 54 years of independence. There is an urgent need to establish value chains that can include rather than exclude the smallest producers. Inclusive chains It is commonly believed that it is very hard profitably to include small producers into modern, integrated value chains. The findings of recent research contradict this assumption. The book Inclusive Value Chains in India (2009) describes 14 case studies of 12 ‘farm to fork’ value chains of fresh vegetables, cotton, rice, shrimps, honey, coffee and broiler chickens, and two non-food products. None of the chains were large, with an average of 4000 producers each. These value chains were selected because the lead organization in each case – a processor, an external development agency, a supermarket group, a producers’ organization and an exporter – had made a deliberate effort to include small producers. They may have done this for business, development or ‘social’ reasons, or for a combination of motives, but the results were the same. Detailed studies of the small producers in the honey and shrimp chains show that they significantly increased both their incomes and assets as a result of being included in the chain. Anecdotal data suggests that the other 12 value chains have been equally beneficial to the small producers. Most, if not all, have significantly improved their economic position since joining the chain. Moreover, the volumes of produce and the numbers of producers involved are growing. All the value chains are now profitable and are in no way dependent on subsidies or ‘corporate social responsibility’ > By Malcolm Harper, emeritus professor of enterprise development, Cranfield School of Management, UK. The Broker issue 16 October 2009 19 SPECIAL REPORT budgets. This was achieved partly because it had to be. The NGOs and other non-commercial agencies were operating to fixed time scales, and were working towards their own withdrawal. The commercial firms regarded any initial losses as investments in future profitability, and worked to reduce and eliminate them as they would with any new venture. Crucially, they also understood that it was in their interest to develop and maintain a loyal group of suppliers; if suppliers dropped out and had to be replaced, the investment in training and other services would be lost and would have to be repeated with new entrants. Hence, it was good business to ensure that producers were properly remunerated. Lessons learned These 14 cases offer a number of valuable lessons. Appropriate inputs. Many livelihood and value chain interventions are undertaken by institutions that specialize in providing finance, or technical training, or marketing, or administration, or some other service. Such institutions supply the inputs that they have at their disposal, regardless of whether they are actually most seriously needed. The critical inputs provided in the 14 sample cases were chosen on the basis of careful analyses of what was needed and not because of pre-existing institutional prejudices. Institutional support. The government played a minor role, and in some cases existing government regulations had to be removed in order to allow the value chain to succeed. Government’s role was to do less, not more. Private businesses, both small and large, on the other hand, played a major role as customers, suppliers and often as the initiators of positive and inclusive change. These companies made use of subsidies when they were available, but they were not always necessary; inclusive value chains can be good investments. Independent management. Small producers are often organized into cooperatives in order to achieve economies of scale and bargaining power. There have been some dramatic successes, such as the Amul milk producers’ societies. But overall, the track record of such groups is not good. The 14 cases showed that such groupings are not always necessary. Groups were involved in seven cases, but in the other seven the producers operated individually. The systems for the flow of inputs, information and products worked effectively under corporate or other independent management, and the producers’ share of the benefits was such as to encourage them to remain in the value chain. Comparative advantages. Success was achieved through higher quality, rather than by lower prices. Small producers were treated not as the ‘weaker sections’ (as the official Government of India phrase has it) but as economic actors with their own peculiar strengths. Five of the 12 food chains were producing organic crops, in which small producers have particular comparative advantages. Organic cultivation requires an intimate knowledge of the land, which small farmers have, and on-farm labour is often used for weeding or composting, replacing purchased chemicals or other inputs. The emphasis was on exploiting these strengths for the advantage of all parties, rather than on protecting and thus preserving their weaknesses. The future Entrepreneurship in agricultural cooperatives Roldan Muradian, CIDIN-Radboud University Nijmegen/Agriterra, and Ellen Magnus, Royal Tropical Institute, the Netherlands Producer organizations such as cooperatives face considerable challenges in developing the new entrepreneurial skills they need in order to cope with global trends in the agribusiness sector. Forming strategic alliances with development agents and private firms may contribute to this process, but many challenges await those who are willing to participate in such initiatives. For agricultural cooperatives, the issue is how to deal with the inevitable tension between engaging in new entrepreneurial relations while also remaining an organization that is truly controlled by and works for the benefit of its members. For the development sector, the question is how to adopt a more business-oriented vision without becoming part of the mainstream business. For the private sector, the challenge will be to convince managers that social concerns are not just a matter of building a good corporate image, but of adopting an ethical approach towards society. Overall, the critical question is how to mainstream partnerships between these three sectors without jeopardizing social inclusion. For the full text of this article, visit The Broker website. 20 www.thebrokeronline.eu India’s modern retail sector is growing rapidly, but it is still small. Most farmers and artisans continue to sell their produce through traditional channels, local vendors or open markets, and only a few are as yet included in modern value chains of any kind, whether inclusive or not. Yet modern retailing will keep growing, and further research is needed to ascertain the extent to which the benefits found in these case studies can be spread more widely. There are almost 92 million small farms in India, and many more millions of non-farm artisans. The value chain research discussed here includes a mere 70,000 producers, and does not claim to be representative of India as a whole. The results do show, however, that it is possible for small farmers and artisans to be included and play a profitable part in modern, integrated value chains. Marx was not necessarily right, and progress under capitalism need not be associated with increasing inequity. □ Harper, M. (2009) Inclusive Value Chains in India: Linking the Smallest Producers to Modern Markets, World Scientific. □ Reardon, T. and Gulati, A. (2008) The Rise of Supermarkets and their Development Implications, IFPRI Discussion Paper 752. □ Shepherd, A. (2005) The Implications of Supermarket Development for Horticultural Farmers and Traditional Marketing Systems in Asia, FAO. book review Global engagement, local action Global Civil Society 2009: Poverty and Activism, edited by Ashwani Kumar, Jan Aart Scholte, Mary Kaldor, Marlies Glasius, Hakan Seckinelgin and Helmut Anheier, Sage, 376 pp. A review by Donatella della Porta W hat is the role of global civil society in pressing for a fairer global order? The 2009 Global Civil Society yearbook is the product of an innovative collaboration between scholars from the North and the South. It offers a comprehensive analysis of recent civil society interventions and a balanced overview of struggles against poverty and social injustice in many countries. The question addressed by the various contributors is whether global civil society is actually advancing the struggle against poverty, or whether it is helping to maintain a system of which poverty is a part. To answer this question, the authors look at methodological as well as substantial, and normative as well empirical aspects of impoverishment. The first chapter reflects on the conceptualization and measurement of poverty, and challenges current definitions. The authors point to the bias that is inevitable when a conceptualization of poverty that is linked to European history is applied to other contexts. The crux of the matter is that those who have the power to define what poverty is, also have the power to define its causes and assign responsibility for its solution. Sally Stares then points to the limitations of monetary measurements of poverty, and the important role of civil society in developing different indices, based on alternative knowledge. She praises several civil society actors who have created new measurements and new, participatory ways to collect data. The NGO Social Watch, for instance, developed the Basic Capabilities Index, based on the notion that living in poverty means not having basic capabilities, such as freedom and the ability to participate in social life, as a result of having inadequate food, education, sanitation or shelter. The yearbook shows that poverty is no longer a defining feature of Southern countries alone. Globalization has produced both extreme impoverishment in the North, and rich enclaves in some cities in the South. Impoverishment – and not just poverty – should therefore be analyzed as the destitution that results when certain actors deny others their human rights. The contributors focus on women, migrants and indigenous peoples – groups that represent a large proportion of the ‘poor’ in both the North and the South. Existing definitions of poverty tend to imply that the poor themselves are responsible for their condition and for their limited capacity to organize against it. Challenging this view, some contributors present poor people as actively resisting poverty and as agents of deepening democracy. Others focus on the tendency of local groups to ‘go global’ and build transnational alliances. Examples include the World Forum of Fish Harvesters and Fishworkers, the Campaign for Survival and Dignity, which is fighting for recognition of the rights of tribal and forest communities, and the alliances of NGOs that have challenged many large dam projects financed by the World Bank. Civil society organizations use different strategies to address politics within different policy areas, with some accepting and others challenging the dominant views. Among them, some cleavages have emerged with regard to organizational formats, action strategies and both the diagnosis and prognosis of poverty. Development NGOs, for example, are divided into those that coordinate professional advocacy interventions (such as Oxfam) and those that focus on organizing the poor ‘from below’, such as Shack/Slum Dwellers International. Similar tensions have emerged in the world of labour rights, between the vertical organization of the International Trade Union Confederation and the horizontal community organizing of StreetNet International, a global alliance of informal street traders. The final answer to the question of whether global civil society is effective in combating poverty has to be a nuanced one. While several victories can be singled out at the level of national policies as well as international norms, the impact of specific NGO interventions on poverty alleviation, as well as on sensitizing global public opinion, are much more difficult to assess. For the moment, their major contribution seems to be the empowerment of the poor, and their growing capacity to make their voices heard. 1 For a longer version of this review, visit www.thebrokeronline.eu. Donatella della Porta is professor of sociology at the European University Institute, Florence, Italy. The Broker issue 16 October 2009 21 German development cooperation A focus on global processes For many years Germany has focused on providing technical assistance and bringing peace and security to many developing and newly independent states. It now wishes to play a more significant role in European and multilateral institutions. Alamy / Victor Watts T he young Federal Republic of Germany made its first donation to a United Nations development programme in 1952. The trauma of war and reconstruction, the reintegration of millions of refugees, and the country’s reliance on Marshall Fund aid had all helped to sensitize politicians to the plight of developing countries. The German parliament introduced an active North–South policy, with support in the form of technical aid, vocational training and further education, as well as programmes to build cultural and social relationships between Germany and the developing world. For the generation of West Germans who began their professional lives in the 1960s and 1970s, development aid and working in the ‘Third World’ were an opportunity to show that there was a Germany very different from Nazi Germany, which had left Europe devastated. In 1956, the parliament included 50 million marks (about €25 million) in the budget of the Federal Foreign Office for ‘supporting activities for underdeveloped countries’. Five years later, the republic created the federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). The Cold War and beyond Between 1961 and 1989, development policy was greatly influenced by the Cold War. Germany was not alone in more By Hannelore Börgel, a development consultant and analyst based in Berlin, Germany, who since 2000 has worked mainly in regions affected by crisis and conflict. 22 www.thebrokeronline.eu summary • W ith the end of the Cold War and reunification, Germany turned its attention to assist former Soviet states, affecting its involvement in Africa. • Partly in response to 9/11, the coherence of foreign, trade, security and development policies is now seen as essential for sustainable global development. • As well as programmes in partner countries, Germany also focuses on nine out of 15 ‘anchor states’, each of which plays a key role in the stability of their region. • Although involved in the development efforts of many European and multilateral institutions, Germany has so far played a minor role in their governance. This situation is set to change. or less neglecting newly independent Third World countries that sympathized with communism. The social–liberal coalition headed by Willy Brandt (1968–74) emphasized the interests of the developing countries and long-term country programmes, but this was followed by a phase of pragmatism. In the wake of the oil price crisis in 1973, the economic interests of the industrialized countries became more important again. In the mid-1980s, Germany introduced the idea of policy dialogue, the aim of which was, and still is, to influence the policies of developing countries and their elites, and to reach agreement with the government on a political, economic and social framework. Although the volume and content of development assistance still depend on the outcome of such policy dialogues, in practice they are also influenced by the partner country’s strategic importance. Following the fall of the Berlin Wall, the end of the Cold War and German reunification had a strong impact on development policy. Projects in the former Soviet republics development policies is regarded as essential to achieve sustainable global development – the key term being ‘sustainability’. In June 2008, the government published its first white paper, Auf dem Weg in die Eine Welt (Towards One World). It describes the four main principles that currently guide its development cooperation – to reduce poverty worldwide, protect the natural environment, build peace and democracy, and promote equitable forms of globalization – as well as strategies for implementation.1 Germany today provides bilateral assistance to some 60 developing countries, down from 120 in 1998. Other countries will also receive assistance as part of regional programmes or projects dealing with specific sectors (such as HIV/AIDS, climate change, forest protection and crisis prevention), or through Germany’s contributions to the programmes of the European Union and multilateral organizations. Africa will remain the main recipient of German development cooperation. ANP / Andreas Altwein Coherence Joschka Fischer, former foreign minister and leader of Die Grünen. Germany’s involvement in the war on terror caused heated debates about the relationship between development and military intervention. in Central Asia were integrated into Germany’s development programmes. Some of these newly independent states, such as Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, were close to collapse, requiring emergency aid – later called development-oriented emergency aid – to provide their citizens with food and other basic needs. Germany assigned a special budget to this. As civil wars erupted in several former Soviet republics, including Tajikistan, it became obvious that development and security could no longer be separated. In 1993, the German chapter of the Society for International Development (SID) and the German parliament jointly organized a conference on development and security for European parliamentarians. A year later, ‘human security’ was chosen as the theme of the UNDP’s Human Development Report, and it also became the guideline for German development policy. 21st century aid Partly in response to the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001, the role of development in the early 21st century has changed. In Germany, development policy is now understood to mean global structural and peace policy as well. The coherence of foreign, trade, security and How to achieve policy coherence has been the subject of many recent discussions between the BMZ and various federal ministries, including those of economics, finance, agriculture and the environment, and the Foreign Office. To inform these discussions, the German Development Institute (DIE/GDI) conducted a study of policy coherence for development from a more general perspective, based on an analysis of international experiences. The report concluded that policy coherence is a complex management task in light of the current limitations of development policy, such as its limited influence on other policies, as well as its small budget. Compared with other donor countries, however, Germany’s efforts to improve coherence have yielded some positive results, according to the OECD’s Development Assistance Committee (DAC) in its recent peer review. The DAC found several favourable conditions for this, including the government’s official acknowledgement of the need for policy coherence, the existence of an independent ministry (BMZ) with a cabinet level minister, and practical experiences in achieving coherence at various levels. German development policy aims to help shape globalization in such a way that it meets the social, environmental and human needs of all peoples. Today, much more than in the past, the development opportunities available to countries in the South are influenced by climate change, international financial markets, technological progress, and international institutions. Germany therefore supports the new global partnership between industrialized and developing countries, which advocates strengthening the influence of the developing countries within international bodies such as the World Bank and IMF, and promotes fair working conditions and the introduction of International Labour Organization norms worldwide. The fact that influencing global processes has become more important in official German development policy than the implementation of projects and programmes has led to The Broker issue 16 October 2009 > 23 Reuters / Roberto Jayme Chancellor Angela Merkel and Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva after signing a strategic partnership agreement in May 2008. intense debate. Supporting this trend are the various think tanks, led by the German Development Institute. On the other side, experienced practitioners and analysts believe that development will only have an impact when all ‘target groups’ – down to the village level – play an active part in the process. They argue that such bottom-up approaches cannot be left to the sole responsibility of NGOs or emergency aid, but require official support. The ‘global process’ defenders currently have the lead in the debate, and in recent panel discussions they have dismissed, or sometimes even mocked, those with opposing views. Germany’s involvement in Afghanistan in the aftermath of 9/11 has given rise to heated debates about the relationship between development and military intervention. Contradictory official statements have contributed to blurred public perceptions about the role of the army. During the early stages of engagement, the role of the army was described as similar to that of a civilian reconstruction team in uniform. German development experts and NGOs kept their distance. The north of Afghanistan, which is assigned to the responsibility of the German army, was described as more or less peaceful, and German troops were said to have a good reputation among the local population. But this situation has changed, especially in Kunduz province, where the army is fighting the Taliban. In the meantime, in the more peaceful northern provinces, Afghans are enjoying the first results of the reconstruction work. Economic activities, trading and transportation have improved, but many are afraid that the Taliban may return. Among the German public a more realistic view of the possibilities of development cooperation in areas of conflict and crisis has slowly taken root. Die Linken (the Left) is the only party that insists on the immediate removal of German forces from Afghanistan. As in other countries, the German media have tended to report spectacular events such as suicide bombings, rather than the successes of reconstruction. They have ignored, for example, the success of the Afghan National Solidarity Programme in taking the first steps towards establishing bottom-up processes such as development councils at district and village levels. There have been very few reports of the provincial and district development funds, financed by German aid, or the fact that Afghans and Germans are working side by side to decide how to apply them. It is only recently that the German public has started to realize that it is impossible to eradicate the consequences of almost 30 years of war in Afghanistan in just five years. Anchor states Development or security? The aim of all German involvement in developing countries is to achieve societal and institutional change. In a 2007 strategy paper, the BMZ outlined a range of approaches that can be used in dealing with difficult governance situations.1 Germany assists its partner countries to address the structural causes of conflicts and to adopt measures to prevent their escalation to full-blown crises at an early stage. It supports both governments and civil society actors in non-violent means of conflict management, with comprehensive programmes to ensure the participation of a wide range of social groups. Through the Civil Peace Service, established in 1999, Germany provides specially trained experts who work together with local organizations and initiatives to mediate in conflicts, and to raise public awareness of the concerns of disadvantaged groups. They are also involved in the rehabilitation of former combatants, helping them to return to civilian life, working with traumatized victims of violence, and assisting refugees to return to their homes. 24 www.thebrokeronline.eu Apart from its programmes in partner countries, German development cooperation also focuses on nine of the 15 so-called ‘anchor states’, each of which plays a key role in the political and economic stability of their region. These states are regarded as indispensable partners in addressing global challenges such as poverty reduction, climate change and environmental protection, peacekeeping, creating a just global economy, and establishing democracy and good governance. The cooperation with these anchor states focuses on three main areas: concentration in terms of content; building dialogue and expanding relations; and encouraging exchanges between researchers and business leaders in the partner countries, among the partner countries and with Germany. BMZ works directly with nine of the 15 anchor states: Brazil, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mexico, Nigeria and South Africa – in order to steadily transform development cooperation into strategic partnerships. There is currently no bilateral development cooperation with the anchor countries Argentina, Iran, Russia and Saudi Arabia. In May 2008, Chancellor Angela Merkel signed a strategic partnership agreement with Brazil, negotiated during the G8 summit in Heiligendamm in 2007. As the financial strength of the anchor states improves, their contributions to development interventions under financial and technical cooperation agreements are gradually raised. The policy for anchor countries also includes helping them build up their own development cooperation structures. For instance, Germany is advising Mexico on setting up its own agency for development cooperation, and is extending environmental projects being carried out under the Mexican– German partnership to other Central American countries. As well as BMZ, various other German ministries also implement programmes in the anchor states. Although in theory a lot could be gained from synergies between them, institutional rivalries often hamper such benefits in practice. The difficulty in coordinating the efforts of different ministries is perhaps most evident in Afghanistan, where four ministries are involved in reconstruction – BMZ, the Foreign Office, the Ministry of Defence and the Ministry of the Interior. They have all been ordered to support Afghanistan, but three ministries demand the leadership: BMZ, because it has the longest experience in development and reconstruction; Defence, because more than 4000 troops are deployed there; and the Foreign Office, because it is responsible for maintaining diplomatic relations. In 2009, parliament granted the Ministry of Defence €571 million, the Foreign Office €91 million, and BMZ €90 million for their operations in Afghanistan. The Foreign Office is now also involved in vocational training and health, which are actually among the core tasks of the BMZ. Development actors Institutional rifts The implementation of German development policy has traditionally been split among a number of key institutions. The division between the agencies for technical cooperation (GTZ) and financial cooperation (KfW) is another German peculiarity. There have been regular discussions and consultations about uniting GTZ and KfW, but the final decision is always postponed. In the partner countries, however, it is increasingly common that a ‘German house’ is established, which accommodates the offices of the different government development organizations. But the actual level of cooperation still depends largely on the individual staff of the different offices. Discussions on integrating the BMZ into the Foreign Office also regularly surface, but things remain as they are. Often, the simple reason for this is that coalition governments need a number of ministries, and the BMZ and the Foreign Office are usually headed by ministers from different parties. When the discussions become really serious, NGOs and churches usually start publicizing their arguments as to why development policy needs to retain a ministry of its own. Political foundations The German government supports the development programmes of various political foundations (Stiftungen). In 2007, €189.5 million was divided among: • Friedrich Ebert Foundation (FES) – links with the Social Democratic Party (SPD) • Friedrich Naumann Foundation (FNS) – links with the Free Democratic Party (FDP) • Hanns Seidel Foundation (HSS) – links with the Christian Socialist Union (CSU) • Heinrich Böll Foundation (hbs) – links with Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Alliance 90/Greens) • Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS) – links with the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) • Rosa Luxemburg Foundation – links with Die Linke (the Left) In addition to the wide range of state-funded organizations, many individual federal German states (Länder) are involved in development cooperation, as well as a large number of NGOs, faith-based organizations, political foundations and other private bodies. About 100 German NGOs are organized in an umbrella organization, VENRO. The BMZ provides financial support for, and exchanges views and experiences with, these organizations. The NGOs are involved in formulating the BMZ’s country, regional and sector strategies and, through VENRO, in raising public awareness of development issues. The foundations associated with the different political parties, another German peculiarity, are involved in projects to strengthen multi-party democracy, and to support civil society organizations and trade unions (see box). These foundations are not necessarily linked to specific parties in the partner countries, but they open up the circle of traditional actors in development cooperation, and contribute to the strengthening of democratic structures. In addition to its bilateral assistance, Germany contributes to the development efforts of many European and multilateral institutions. Although for many years Germany has played a rather restrained role in these institutions, it now wishes to have more influence on the international stage. For decades the German government – unlike those of France and the UK – has underestimated the importance of placing highly qualified personnel in key positions in international organizations. Clearly, this situation is set to change. □ BMZ (2008) Auf dem Weg in die Eine Welt/Towards One World, development policy white paper. □ BMZ (2007) Development-Oriented Transformation in Conditions of Fragile Statehood and Poor Government Performance, BMZ Strategies 153. □ Holtz, U. (2006) Abschied von der Gießkanne, Stationen aus 50 Jahren deutscher Entwicklungspolitik, in: Eins- EntwicklungspolitikInformation Nord-Süd, 23-24-2006, Frankfurt/Main. 1 For a longer version visit www.thebrokeronline.eu. The Broker issue 16 October 2009 25 research horizons Fishing for alternatives Illegal fishing is threatening the livelihoods of many West African fishing communities. Alhaji Jallow of the FAO Regional Office for Africa believes that the scope of research needs to be broadened to include not just marine resources, but also the people who exploit them. Hollandse Hoogte / Hoogervorst When the FAO Regional Office for Africa was set up in Ghana 50 years ago, protecting fisheries was one of its priorities. Is that work still as important today? Alhaji Jallow is senior fisheries officer at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Regional Office for Africa, based in Accra, Ghana. He holds an MSc in fisheries economics from the University of Portsmouth, UK. Before joining the FAO, Jallow worked for many years in the Fisheries Department, Ministry of Natural Resources of the Government of The Gambia, where he was responsible for setting up various artisanal fisheries development programmes. He also worked as coordinator of an artisanal fisheries project funded by the European Union, and as a consultant on a national biodiversity programme funded by the US Agency for International Development. Interview by Ellen Lammers. 26 www.thebrokeronline.eu Across Africa around 3 million fishers and fish farmers depend directly on fisheries and aquaculture for their livelihoods. A further 7 million men and women depend on the sector through their work as fish handlers, processors and traders. Artisanal fisheries have long been a very important economic sector in West Africa. For the residents of some coastal communities, up to 60% of their animal protein intake comes from fish. And where distribution systems are efficient, inland communities can obtain smoke-dried fish that can be stored for months. Since most of these communities do not have facilities for chilling or freezing food, this makes fish much more important than beef. Exports of fish and fish products, mostly from artisanal fisheries, are increasing, generating about US$2.7 billion each year. Note that this does not include most of the regional trade within Africa and the catches of foreign fleets that operate in African waters under different agreements. The African industrial fishing sector has always been weak, and this is reflected in its limited contribution to GDP in most countries. Well managed fisheries could make greater contributions to the region’s economies. Investments in vessels and fishing gear continue to be a challenge because of escalating prices. Banks are reluctant to provide credit for the sector, which they consider more risky than agriculture. Unlike farming, where you can see the crops, the potential of the seas is not obvious to the untrained eye. What changes have you witnessed over the years? Perhaps the most disconcerting developments have been the increasing number of bilateral fishing agreements, and the incidence of illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing, which threatens to deplete fish stocks worldwide. It has been estimated that IUU fishing costs sub-Saharan Africa at least US$1 billion (€0.7 billion) each year. The problem is that governments cannot afford to police their waters to prevent illegal vessels operating within their exclusive economic zones (EEZs).1 A recent survey by Greenpeace, for example, revealed that out of 92 trawlers observed off the coast of Guinea, 10% had no name or flag, 33% had no licence and 50% were fishing illegally. Of these violators, 66% were Chinese. These illegal operators take advantage of the fact that African countries are unable to patrol their fishing grounds. They do not pay for licences, observers or other national surveillance systems, so their operating costs are minimal. All of this is having a heavy toll on traditional fishing communities. In 2008, Ghanaian fishermen mounted widespread protests against Chinese pair trawlers, which drag large nets over the seabed, destroying the habitats of juvenile fish. There are also frequent conflicts between industrial trawlers and artisanal canoes, which sometimes result in fatal collisions and irreparable damage to the locals’ fishing gear. The over-exploitation of West African coastal waters means that local fishermen are compelled to go out for longer periods and to more distant grounds, which increases their operating costs. Their catches are also often smaller, reducing their profitability, and forcing many fishermen into debt. How could research help this situation? Effective management and allocation of fisheries resources requires knowledge of the potential of marine resources and would facilitate monitoring, which at present is hampered by the lack of data on fish stocks. Few African countries have specialized research institutes that can conduct surveys, so that governments have to rely on ad hoc stock assessments. are still using data from the 1970s. Without reliable data on the deteriorating state of the EEZs, it is almost impossible to convince politicians that they need to be more cautious about issuing licences to foreign fishing vessels. But governments are desperate for foreign currency, which the licences bring in, and so dismiss the warnings of regional fisheries bodies. If these bodies could provide advice based on objective and reliable data, it would be much harder for decision makers to ignore them. Africa needs specialized research on fish stocks, especially those that are shared, and on the options for sustainable management. But this would require expensive vessels and research equipment. Foreign donors are contributing, but it is high time that West African governments and national institutions invested more in fisheries research. And what about the region’s fishing communities? Socio-economic research that assesses the impact of IUU fishing on the livelihoods of fishing communities is urgently needed. I must add that it is not only the illegal fishing that threatens the livelihoods of fisherfolk. The costs of equipment are prohibitive. As artisanal fishers are forced to travel to more distant fishing grounds, many are motorizing their canoes at a time of rising fuel prices. The increasing price of electricity has also affected the price of ice that some operators use to store their catch while at sea. On land, deforestation means that the wood that is used to build traditional canoes is becoming scarce and more expensive. Some fishermen have resorted to imported fibreglass canoes, which last longer, but the initial investment and maintenance costs are higher. All of these factors are affecting the profitability of many family businesses. At a time of rising global food prices, they also threaten the food security of entire communities. The potential impacts of these developments are frightening. As fisherfolk lose their means of earning a livelihood, this could create serious socio-economic problems, particularly in West Africa. Countries will lose their main source of export earnings, and of protein. The fishermen and their families have few alternatives. They do not have the training to become farmers, and if they do, few have the patience to wait for months for a harvest and income. They are used to receiving payment, however small, every day. The daily income affects the expenditure patterns in fishing communities, and most fishermen do not save. They walk away from the beach and spend their money, expecting to earn it again the next day. Such patterns are not well documented, and there is an urgent need for research that provides a better picture of the livelihoods and their profitability. With adequate information, we can propose alternatives for diversifying their sources of income. Traditionally, fisheries research has focused on the biology of fish. The scope of such research needs to be broadened to include socio-economic studies that can provide the information needed to help in managing the people and the communities who exploit these resources. This has become just as important as managing the fish and fisheries resources of Africa. □ Kraan, M. (2009) Creating Space for Fishermen’s Livelihoods, Brill/ Africa Studies Centre, Leiden. 1 A longer version can be found at www.thebrokeronline.eu. The Broker issue 16 October 2009 27 The militarization of space Negotiating space Recent political, military and technological developments indicate that the international consensus on the uses of space is under threat. Agreement on preventive arms control in space could soon be reached, as long as all countries choose to cooperate. O n 11 January 2007, the Chinese used a ground-based missile to destroy an aging weather satellite orbiting 800 km above Earth. This test of anti-satellite technology, the first in 20 years, demonstrated China’s ability to target regions of space that are home to communications and spy satellites and space-based missile defence systems. The incident drew sharp protests from nations with satellite programmes, and raised international alarm about the possibility of an arms race in space. Is that alarm justified, and if so, what steps are being taken to strengthen international space law to prevent an arms race in space becoming a reality? The Outer Space Treaty (1967) represents the legal framework of international space law. The intent of the treaty, ratified by 99 states, is to ensure that no weapons are placed in outer space, and that the exploration and uses of outer space benefit all nations. But on closer inspection, existing international law does not actually prohibit all weapons in space. The Outer Space Treaty prohibits the placement of nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction in Earth orbit, and the Moon and other celestial bodies may be used only for peaceful purposes. But it does not prohibit the deployment of conventional weapons in orbit.1 So far, nations have complied with the letter, but clearly not the spirit, of the Outer Space Treaty and other international agreements. Recent political, military and technological developments demonstrate that the consensus enshrined in these agreements is under threat. Weapons in space Since the launch of the first satellite Sputnik in 1957, the number of objects circling Earth has risen dramatically. There are now hundreds of satellites used for observation By Ineke Malsch, an independent consultant and writer on technology and society, based in Utrecht, the Netherlands. 28 www.thebrokeronline.eu summary •The Outer Space Treaty prohibits the placement of weapons of mass destruction in space, but not of conventional weapons. •In 2007, there were more than 200 dedicated military satellites in orbit, as well as hundreds of ‘dual-use’ observation and communication satellites. •The debris resulting from collisions in space is a matter of growing concern for all nations with satellite programmes. •Since 2006, there has been renewed international debate on ways to encourage peaceful uses of outer space, either by legal agreements or voluntary measures. •In May 2009 the Conference on Disarmament agreed to resume discussions on proposals for preventing an arms race in outer space. and communication, and for scientific research. Although no weapons have yet been placed in orbit, they could be deployed within a decade or so, threatening international peace and security. The United States, the Soviet Union/Russia and other countries have been conducting military activities in space for decades. In 2007, there were more than 200 operational, dedicated military satellites orbiting Earth – 136 belonging to the US, and 67 to Russia. There are also many more ‘dual-use’ observation and communication satellites that are used for both civilian and military purposes. Several European countries, Canada, China, Israel, India, Japan and Thailand are also developing their own military capabilities in space. A country that wishes to attack a foreign satellite outside Earth’s atmosphere does not need armed satellites, however. Missiles can be fired from aircraft, warships or from the ground, as the Chinese test in 2007 demonstrated. Russia has suggested that it is developing an anti-satellite (ASAT) missile capability. Such developments are simply a new chapter in an old story. During the Cold War, the US and the Soviet Union funded programmes to develop groundbased ASAT missile systems. At present, 28 states can ANP / Science Photo Library Star Wars: a purely fictional conception of warfare in space? launch missiles up to suborbital heights, 10 nations have missiles that can reach orbit, and as many as 30 countries may have developed low-power lasers capable of damaging satellites. Japan and India may also be developing groundbased ASATs. Ballistic missiles The US withdrawal from the Anti-ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty in 2002 led to a new arms race to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and a missile defence shield using anti-ballistic missiles (ABMs). Outer space is not immune to this arms race, because some ground-based ABMs can target ICBMs outside the atmosphere. There have been frequent media reports about the controversial US plans for a missile defence shield, which were expected to include placing interceptor missiles and radar installations in eastern Europe by 2013, in order to protect the US and its allies against possible missile attacks by Iran. Recently, President Barack Obama announced that no long-range missiles will be placed in Poland, but that missile defence in Europe in the coming years will focus on short- and medium-range missiles that will not leave the atmosphere.1 The US Congress has also looked into other alternatives, including placing missiles in other countries or on submarines, or retaining existing defence capabilities in Europe. In June 2009, US deputy defence secretary William J. Lynn announced a ballistic missile defence review that will focus on the threats from extremist movements, emerging powers with sophisticated weapons, failed states, as well as the spread of weapons of mass destruction. This will be no small endeavour. President Obama has said he wants to reserve US$7.8 billion (€5.5 billion) for ballistic missile defence in 2010. Russia is also planning to improve the capability of its (nuclear) ICBMs to overcome missile defences by 2016. So far, there are no satellites armed with missiles that can attack other satellites or targets on the ground. But that is not because no one has yet tried to develop them. In the 1980s, the US worked on ‘Brilliant Pebbles’, a programme to devise a system of satellite-based mini-missiles with conventional warheads that could intercept hostile missiles. Although the programme was cancelled in 1994, it is now being re-evaluated for possible future use. Both the US and the Soviet Union have worked on directed energy systems, or lasers, capable of intercepting ICBMs during spaceflight. Even now, the US is continuing relevant missile defence R&D, but Congress is restricting funding. The US Missile Defense Agency is funding work by Lockheed Martin and Raytheon on ‘multiple-kill vehicles’ that can be launched on a single rocket and fired while in orbit to destroy ICBMs or satellites. China, India, Israel and several EU countries are investing in dual-use technologies that could be used to place weapons in space. Richard Fisher, an analyst at the International Assessment and Strategy Center in the US, believes that the Chinese military may be developing a plane that could be used as a space-based ground attack weapons system. The Broker issue 16 October 2009 29 Hostile policies The weaponization of space is embedded in the defence policies of the growing number of countries with the capability to send missiles into space for various purposes. Under the Bush administration, US National Space Policy was aimed at protecting US space activities and defending US national interests from space. The US also blocked international arms control agreements that would restrict US military activities in space. Although President Obama has not yet issued a new space policy, the signs are that he favours the integration of defence and civilian space programmes. In Europe, military activities in space are still mainly the responsibility of national governments, but the European Commission wants to improve coordination between the defence and civilian space programmes. But there are growing concerns, says Frank Slijper, a researcher for the Dutch Campaign against the Arms Trade, about the gradual militarization of European space activities without adequate public debate.1 Russia has proposed arms control in outer space, but this could be part of a strategy to restore Russia’s superpower status, warns Andrei Shoumikhin of the US National Institute for Public Policy. Russia currently does not have the resources for an arms race in outer space against the technologically superior US, so a comprehensive international ban could reduce the US advantage, enabling Russia to catch up. Several other countries are also considering the use of outer space in their defence strategies. Japan passed a law permitting military uses of space in 2008, for example, and India is considering setting up an aerospace command and more military use of space. Within a decade, armed satellites could be orbiting Earth, but would this necessarily be a bad thing? As long as they attack only other military satellites, perhaps that would be preferable to the current asymmetric ground warfare that results in so many civilian casualties. Even now, it is hard to hide from prying eyes in the sky. Suppose an enemy succeeds in dominating Earth orbit militarily and could not only see, but also destroy targets on the ground. And even if they could attack armed satellites, they could also threaten the communication and observation satellites on which the global economy and disaster monitoring now depend. Unless all nations refrain from putting weapons in space, some countries believe, they have no choice but to participate in the arms race. Preventive arms control So how realistic is the option of ensuring peace in outer space? Since 2006, there has been renewed international debate on ways to encourage peaceful uses of outer space, either by legal agreements or voluntary measures. But how effective is international law, what are the loopholes, and what proposals have been made to address them? In 2006, the UN Conference on Disarmament (CD) in Geneva resumed its discussions on preventing an arms race 30 www.thebrokeronline.eu in outer space (PAROS). Detlev Wolter, chairman of the 60th session of the UN General Assembly First Committee on Disarmament, proposed to negotiate a new multilateral treaty on common security in outer space and to create an agency responsible for its implementation. In February 2008, Russia and China retabled a draft treaty, first discussed in 2002, on the Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space (PPWT) aimed at preventing both the militarization of space and attacks on spacecraft. In Europe, faced with the unwillingness of the US to agree to a binding international agreement, the EU Council proposed an alternative draft code of conduct for outer space activities, as a sort of compromise. Experts disagree on whether negotiating a new legally binding treaty or agreeing voluntary measures would be the best approach to improving security in outer space. In August 2008, Marius Grinius, Canadian ambassador to the CD, thought the time was ripe to discuss the two options in parallel. Although the US quickly rejected the draft PPWT treaty proposed by Russia and China, on the grounds that it would not be possible to verify reliably if all countries were respecting the treaty, the US position may change. In January 2009, President Obama proposed a ‘worldwide ban on weapons that interfere with military and commercial satellites’. In December 2008, the UN General Assembly asked the Conference on Disarmament to discuss both proposals for preventing an arms race in outer space. The CD decided to do this in May 2009, after the US withdrew its opposition. It seems that the table is set for discussions on preventive arms control in outer space, if only the countries involved can find a way out of the prisoner’s dilemma, and decide that it is far better to cooperate. The author gratefully acknowledges the comments and suggestions by Drs Tanja Masson-Zwaan, University of Leiden and president of the International Institute of Space Law; Professor Bert Chapman, Purdue University Libraries; and Fr Paul Lansu, Pax Christi International. The contents of this article remain the sole responsibility of the author. □ Fisher, R.D. Jr (2008) … And races into space, Wall Street Journal, 3 January. □ Slijper, F. (2008) From Venus to Mars: The EU’s Steps towards the Militarization of Space, TNI Briefing Paper, Campaign against the Arms Trade, Amsterdam. □ Wolter, D. (2006) Common Security in Outer Space and International Law, UN Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR). □ SpaceSecurity.org (2008) Space Security 2008, Project Ploughshares. □ Relevant blogs include Res Communis (University of Mississippi School of Law): http://rescommunis.wordpress.com and UNIDIR’s e‑di@logue: www.unidir.org/html/en/e-dialog.html 1 The full text can be found at www.thebrokeronline.eu. The Broker thesis project Masters of innovation perspective’, Mujawamariya focuses on Rwanda, whose economy depends on agriculture, especially coffee production for export. He examines coffee farmers and their membership of cooperatives, which play an important role in the production system. The findings, based on data from cooperatives, farmers and other key informants, will be useful for understanding this important social mechanism for enhancing productivity in the coffee sector. The reviewer described the study as ‘original and intellectually stimulating’. Agriculture remains one of the most important drivers for Africa’s economies. Research plays an essential role in the development of innovations that can help increase productivity in the sector. Four students from South Africa, Ethiopia, Rwanda and Tanzania have examined various aspects of agricultural development, each focusing on a different region, from a different perspective and using a different methodology. What binds these researchers is that they have all looked at innovations that could benefit farmers, processors and policy makers across Africa. Sinafikey Asrat (Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia) In ‘Economic analysis of farmers’ preferences for crop variety traits using a choice experiment approach: Lessons for on-farm conservation and technology adoption in Ethiopia’, Asrat uses a choice experiment method to reveal the preferences of farmers for particular crops. The findings reveal that the farmers’ preferences are based on the crops’ ability to withstand drought, rather than on the level of profit they could generate. Asrat then convincingly relates these crop preferences to a number of household characteristics. The reviewer commended this thesis as ‘a good example of creative thinking focused on the development of a sector that is important for many Ethiopians’. Al Harris (University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa) In ‘Development of a spatial sugarcane transport infrastructure planning model’, Harris investigates the potential of geographical information systems (GIS) to improve infrastructure planning for the sugar industry. In his study, Harris shows how the sugar industry could use GIS to reduce transportation costs significantly. According to the reviewer, ‘The findings are potentially very useful, and hopefully some of them will be applied in future policy’. Gaudiose Mujawamariya (Wageningen University, the Netherlands) In ‘Cooperatives in the development of coffee farming in Rwanda: Membership choice from a transaction cost economics Athumani Msalale Lupindu (Wageningen University, the Netherlands) In ‘Pastoralists in Mbeya district of Tanzania and their perceptions of national livestock policy’, Lupindu presents a concise study of the process of change in Tanzania, where the government is encouraging pastoralists to make the transition from their traditional way of life to a modern livestock system in order to increase productivity and reduce environmental degradation. Lupindu’s research gives insights into the pastoralists’ perceptions of the policy, and how they are adapting to the new system. In his review, Rudy Rabbinge commented that ‘the findings of this study on the long- and short-term impacts of the policy and its practical consequences will be helpful for policy makers’. BigStockPhoto This is the first report on The Broker thesis project. It highlights the theses submitted by four students from Africa. The theses have been reviewed by Meine Pieter van Dijk of the UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, the Netherlands; George Essegbey, director of the Science and Technology Policy Research Institute and of the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Ghana; and Rudy Rabbinge of Wageningen University, the Netherlands. The Broker thesis project is a platform for masters-level research on developmentrelated issues. Masters graduates from around the world are invited to submit their theses for review by an international reading committee consisting of policy makers, journalists, politicians and academics. The reviewers will assess the theses on the basis of their originality, scientific quality and relevance to practitioners and policy makers in the field of international development. This new section of The Broker will present reviews of the most outstanding theses submitted, offering insights into the wide range of research carried out by masters students from all continents. The full texts of the reviews and the theses can be found at www.thebrokeronline.eu/the_broker_thesis Have you recently completed a masters thesis on a development-related issue such as energy, agriculture, health, conflict resolution, governance, innovation or sustainable development in general? If so, and you wish to participate in The Broker thesis project, visit the website for details, or email [email protected] for further information. The Broker issue 16 October 2009 31 column Chinese puzzle hat’s the connection between China’s one-child policy and the ability of the United States to continue spending beyond its means? You can be excused for not immediately guessing the answer to this bizarre question. The truth is an amazing story. In 1979, following a devastating famine, the Chinese Communist Party decided to regulate fertility in order to achieve a better balance between the people’s future needs and China’s ability to produce food. Although the one-child policy (OCP) is less unambiguous than its crisp name suggests (rural families were allowed to have a second child if the first one was a girl), it restricted the freedom of most couples to choose how many children they would have. It has been estimated that due to the OCP there are now 300 million fewer Chinese than there otherwise would have been. While this is almost certainly an overestimate of the effect of the OCP – the birth rate was already falling before the policy was implemented – few people doubt that the Chinese attempt to regulate fertility amounts to a first-order social intervention. In 2007, two Chinese economists published an ingenious article exploring the income effects of the OCP.1 The Communist Party’s hypothesis was borne out by the data; regions with fewer babies experience faster income growth. This probably comes as no surprise to neo-Malthusians. However, the mechanism linking the OCP to higher incomes is not well understood, and few people believe that Malthus’s dismal world view – based on a mismatch between resources and people – provides the whole story. One rather unexpected complementary storyline is as follows. It is well known that the gender ratio in China is quite distorted. In some provinces, 30% more boys than girls are born. Boys are preferred to girls, in rural areas, because they provide security for old age. Especially since the late 1980s, when ultrasound technology became widely available to allow pre-natal sex screening, the number of boys born has systematically outnumbered that of girls. Recent research suggests that about half the gender gap is explained by the OCP. If couples really want to have a son, and are restricted in the number of children they can raise, the evidence suggests they may resort to drastic measures to make sure their offspring includes a boy. This certainly was an unexpected and undesirable side effect of the OCP. By Erwin Bulte, professor of economics at Wageningen University and Tilburg University. He is also a research fellow at the University of Cambridge and an adviser to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. BigStockPhoto W Which brings us to the final piece of the puzzle. If the number of boys in the maternity ward consistently exceeds that of girls, then eventually men will be more plentiful than women. And as women are becoming scarce in China, they become more ‘valuable’. Specifically, women can afford to become more demanding in the marriage market, and the competition among men to attract a spouse intensifies. How do parents help their son to find a wife? They save money to provide him with a superior starting position – they support him with money for a nice house and fancy items that prospective wives might like. In the countryside, the parents of teenage boys are engaged in a race to accumulate savings. And the more skewed the local gender ratio, the harder they compete. The Chinese save an astronomical 50% of their incomes, and China has become the world’s leading creditor. According to a recent study, about half of these savings can be explained by marriage competition induced by the OCP – another unexpected side effect of the policy. So here we have the full story. The one-child policy raised incomes but made girls and women scarce. This invited a massive savings response by desperate parents who want the best for their sons. Quite a bit of these savings eventually found its way abroad. It is well known that Chinese savings have allowed the current generation of Americans to spend more money than they earn. But it is interesting, and surprising, that this behaviour was facilitated by Chinese communists fretting about Malthusian nightmare scenarios in the 1970s. The Broker is available only to subscribers. For a free one-year subscription, register online at www.thebrokeronline.eu. No strings attached – guaranteed.