Reedman.L_Keynote Address

Transcription

Future Grids in Australia
Luke Reedman | PowerFactory Users' Conference and Future Networks Technical Seminar 2013
6 September2013
ADD BUSINESS
UNIT/FLAGSHIP NAME
ENERGY
FLAGSHIP
In this talk
• Where have we come from
• Some recent changes
• The next 10-20 years
2 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Where have we come from
(last 10 years)
Peak and average demand
Source: CSIRO calculations from AEMO data
Electricity generation
250
AUS Principal electricity generation by fuel type (TWh)
Wind
200
Solar
Oil products
Natural gas
150
TWh
Coal seam methane
Brown coal
Black coal
100
Biofuels
Hydro
50
0
Source: ESAA (2013), Electricity Gas Australia 2013
Wholesale electricity prices
200
180
160
140
$/MWh
120
100
NSW
QLD
SA
80
60
40
20
0
Source: AEMO
SNOWY
TAS
VIC
Retail electricity prices
Sources: ABS 2012, Producer Price Indexes, Australia, cat. no. 6427.0; Consumer Price Index, Australia, cat.
no. 6401.0.
Some recent changes
Electricity consumption declining
206
204
202
200
Consumption (TWh)
198
196
194
192
190
188
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
Electricity consumption declining
Consumption by NEM State (TWh)
200
180
160
140
TAS
TWh
120
SA
QLD
100
VIC
80
NSW & ACT
60
Total Consumption
40
20
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Possible reasons for NSW
Source: Intelligent Energy Systems (2013), IES Insider, Issue No. 14
Solar PV
Source: Australian PV Association
Solar PV
Solar PV Capacity in Australia
2,500
4
Solar PV Capacity
Reduction of Solar Credits
Multiplier, June 2012
2,000
3.5
3
Average PV system size
MW
2
1,000
End of Solar Bonus
Scheme, April 2011
Reduction of solar Credits
Multiplier, June 2011
1.5
1
500
0.5
0
0
Jan-10 Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11
Source: Clean Energy Regulator
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12 Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
kW
2.5
1,500
Peak demand
‘Strong’ La Nina on the east coast
Source: Bureau of Meteorology
Electricity generation
250
AUS Principal electricity generation by fuel type (TWh)
Wind
200
Solar
Oil products
Natural gas
150
TWh
Coal seam methane
Brown coal
Black coal
100
Biofuels
Hydro
50
0
Average wholesale prices down
Average price ($/MWh)
Total Energy GWh
Total energy
Average price
60
208,000
206,000
50
204,000
40
202,000
30
200,000
20
198,000
10
196,000
194,000
0
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
Wholesale price spikes subdued
200
175
180
160
Days above $300
140
131
120
120
2008-09
102
100
2010-11
80
66
60
40
2009-10
88
48
37
39
35
47
37
34
27
22
22
20
12
19
11 13
12
1
0
0
NSW
QLD
SA
2011-12
59
VIC
TAS
NEM
The next 10-20 years
The next 10-20 years
• Will electricity consumption continue to decline?
• Will peak demand rebound?
• What about centralised generation?
• More PV?
• Prices rising?
• What about storage and EVs?
• Can retailers keep their customers?
Electricity consumption forecast
260,000
240,000
Annual energy segments
220,000
200,000
180,000
160,000
140,000
Financial year
Residential and commercial*
Auxiliary Loads
Annual energy - as generated
Industrial Consumption
Rooftop PV
Annual energy - as sent out
Source: AEMO, National Electricity Forecasting Report 2013
Transmission Losses
Energy Efficiency
Electricity consumption growth, some uncertainty
2013 NEFR native annual energy forecasts
(10-year outlook - GWh) - NEM
250,000
Annual energy consumption (GWh)
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2013 High
2013 Medium
2013 Low
Actuals
Peak demand rebound
Peak demand rebound
Source: Bureau of Meteorology
More rooftop PV
2013 NEFR rooftop PV annual energy forecasts
(10-year outlook - GWh) - NEM
9,000
Annual energy consumption (GWh)
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2013 High
2013 Medium
2013 Low
Actuals
2012 High
2012 Medium
2012 Low
Peak demand and solar PV: market level
Peak demand and solar PV: network level
Source: SKM (2013), Assessment of Economic Benefits of a National Energy Savings Initiative
Retail prices up some more
Source: AEMC (2013), Electricity Price Trends Report
The ‘death spiral’
• Networks have fixed costs because they build capacity ($/kVA)
• They recover their costs through energy charges (c/kWh)
• If energy consumption falls (e.g., PV, energy efficiency), fewer kWh
to recover fixed costs
• Creates a revenue shortfall
• In the next round, the network charge (c/kWh) has to rise
• This feeds through to higher retail prices
• This leads to greater incentive to reduce consumption
• And so on…
29 | Energy pathways | Luke Reedman
Storage, just around the corner?
Can retailers keep their customers?
Source: AER (2012), State of the Energy Market 2012
Likely investment
Percentage of proposed power stations by fuel type (MW)
100%
other
90%
80%
hydro
70%
geothermal
60%
solar
50%
coal
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
gas
wind
More wind, but…
Source: Reedman et al. (2012), ‘Quantifying the Impact of Setback Limits on the Possible
Deployment of Wind Farms in Australia’, Paper presented at the International Energy Workshop.
Large scale solar coming, PV…
2007 - 305 kWp on Alice Springs Crown Casino
Photo provided by SunPower Corporation
2012 - 1.22 MWp at University of QLD
2009 - 1.0 MWp on Adelaide Showground
2013 - 10 MWp at Greenough River, WA
Photo provided by First Solar
… can solar thermal fight back?
Source: U.S. Department of Energy
What about gas?
Comparison of historical Australian domestic natural gas demand forecasts
3000
Natural gas 2009-10
projections
PJ
2500
2000
1500
Natural gas 2010-11
projections
1000
500
0
Natural gas 2011-12
projections
CCS and nuclear
CCS
• Number of technologies being
investigated
• Delays in timeline
• CCS expected to be at
commercial scale in 2020 at
the earliest
Nuclear power
• Currently prohibited in some
states
• No local experience
• Lack of community
acceptance
• Environmental issues and
catastrophic risk
New demand: electric vehicles
9
8
Based on vehicle manufacturer projections
7
Based on IEA (2011)
Million
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
The take away
Considerable uncertainty
Demand has changed and will continue to change
More modular centralised supply
Less network build, but still needs spend
Decreasing utilisation needs to be tackled (‘death spiral’ in the
extreme case)
• Pricing needs to change, challenge is consumer buy-in
•
•
•
•
•
Questions?
Thank you
Dr Luke Reedman
Stream Leader, Energy Modelling
CSIRO Energy Flagship
t +61 2 49606057
e [email protected]
w www.csiro.au/OrganisationStructure/Flagships/Energy-Flagship.aspx
ENERGY FLAGSHIP
Acknowledgments
Paul Graham
John Ward
Chris Fell

Reedman.L_Keynote Address

Transcription

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