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Hydrologic Forecast Centre
Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation
Winnipeg, Manitoba
THIRD SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR MANITOBA
April 10, 2013
Overview:
The Hydrologic Forecast Centre of Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation’s third 2013 spring
flood outlook notes that the potential for spring flood is higher in some areas while remaining the
same in others when compared to the March outlook. This is mainly due to significant additional snow
fall in recent weeks and the delayed runoff.
The potential for flooding is significantly higher than in 2012 due to above average snowfall and more
wide spread with high water content snow pack in many parts of the province. However, apart from
the Red River Basin, the flood potential in the major river basins and lakes is generally lower than in
2011 due to lower soil moisture levels at the time of freeze-up. Prior to the unprecedented 2011
floods, Manitoba experienced widespread, high soil moisture levels, high winter snowpack followed
by major rain storms in the spring and summer.
The spring flood potential still remains the same as the March outlook, at moderate to major for the
Red river and for the North West and Interlake regions. The April flood outlook revises the flood risk
upwards for the Assinboine, Souris, QuAppelle, Pembina and Roseau rivers in which these rivers
may see moderate to major flooding. Significant overland flooding is expected to develop in most
areas of the province.
Flooding is expected in portions of northern Manitoba including The Pas where there is above
average soil moisture conditions and significant snowfall this season. The main stem of the
Saskatchewan River at The Pas is expected to be close to bank full level, although much will depend
on future weather and the regulation of Saskatchewan’sTobin Lake outflows.
The magnitude of the spring flood potential is still very dependent on future weather conditions from
now until the spring melt. The amount of additional snow and rain, the timing and rate of the spring
thaw, and the timing of peak flows in Manitoba, the U.S. and other provinces will have a significant
effect on flood potential. Delayed thaw and the potential for spring rain storms could result in rapid
snow melt aggravating overland flooding and increasing tributary flows.
At the onset of runoff, there is a chance of localized flooding due to ice jams or snow blockages in
drains, ditches and small streams. Major ice jams are difficult to predict as to location and magnitude;
the possibility of ice jams cannot be ruled out. The North Red Community Water Maintenance
Corporation has focused this year’s ice jam mitigation program on the north Red, Assiniboine,
Whitemud, Icelandic, Brokenhead and Fisher rivers to reduce the potential of ice jams.
Precipitation during the fall of 2012 was well below normal in most of southern Manitoba but near
normal to above normal in the Interlake regions and northern Manitoba including The Pas region. This
is in contrast to 2010, when autumn precipitation was above average and widespread across the
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province prior to the floods of 2011. However, winter precipitation is near normal to well above normal
in many areas of the province, Saskatchewan, North Dakota and Minnesota.
Based on Environment Canada’s long-term April-June climatic outlook, there is a chance of near
normal temperatures across most of the province. The outlook is calling for below normal precipitation
in the northern Interlake Region and northern parts of the province. For southern Manitoba, normal
precipitation is expected.
Soil Conditions
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In the southern belt of the prairies, overall soil moisture levels at the time of freeze-up in 2012
were significantly lower than the unprecedented and wide spread wet conditions seen in 2010
prior to the major 2011 floods.
The aerial soil moisture survey conducted by the United States, National Operational
Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC) in November, 2012 indicated that moisture in
the top 20 cm of soil was generally below average in Southern Manitoba and in the U.S.
portion of the Red River basin (Figure 1). Some of the data particularly in portions of
Saskatchewan was determined to be unreliable due to early snow cover impacting the soil
moisture measurements.
An Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada soil survey shows conditions in the prairies ranging from
below normal to above normal soil moisture levels (Figure 2). Soil moisture maps in the root
zone (0 – 120 cm) from fall 2012 field surveys produced by the Manitoba Agriculture, Food and
Rural Initiatives (MAFRI) for Southern Manitoba are shown in Figures 3 and 4. The maps
indicate soil moisture content varying below normal to near normal in most parts. Northern
Saskatchewan and a few areas including the Interlake area show above normal soil moisture
levels.
Analysis based on weighted May to October precipitation shows that the soil moisture at
freeze-up time was variable across Manitoba with above average levels in central and northern
Manitoba including The Pas and Interlake areas (Figure 5). Most of the Southern Manitoba
including the Red, the Assiniboine and the Souris watersheds experienced below normal soil
moisture levels.
Available data from southern Manitoba indicates the soil is considerably frozen to a depth from
50 cm (1.5 feet) to more than 100 cm (3.0 feet) mainly due to periods of well below freezing
temperatures. Wet frozen soils impede infiltration of melt water and increase spring runoff.
Higher runoff occurs if the snow melt is rapid.
Lake Level and River flow Conditions
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Due to the delayed melt, major rivers and tributaries still have ice cover that is thick and strong
and flows are below normal for the month of April.
At the time of freeze-up, water levels for the Red, Assiniboine, Souris, Qu’appelle and
Winnipeg rivers were below normal and lower than the levels in 2010 and 2011. The
Saskatchewan River flow at The Pas is above normal but close to or lower than the fall of 2010
and 2011.
The Assiniboine River flow is also high for this time of year due to releases from the
Shellmouth reservoir. Shellmouth reservoir has reached historical low levels, 15 cm (0.5 feet)
below 2011 levels. Effective April 9th conduit flows have been reduced to 8.5 cm (300 cfs).
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Interlake major rivers, the Waterhen and Fairford river flows are above normal due to the
consistently high water level of Lake Winnipegosis.
Water levels for the major lakes, such as lakes Winnipegosis, Manitoba and Winnipeg are well
below the levels seen in 2010 and 2011 at the time of freeze-up.
Snow Water Content
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November to March snowfall has been above normal in most parts of Manitoba, southern
Saskatchewan, Alberta, North Dakota and Minnesota (Figure 6a and b).
Along the Manitoba-Saskatchewan border in the Assiniboine basin, above normal (up to 200
per cent) snow pack exists. Yorkton Saskatchewan weather station reported an increase in
equivalent water content of 25 mm (1 inch) since the March measurements.
The Manitoba portion of the Red River basin is near to above normal (up to 200 per cent) snow
pack. The snowpack in general remains unchanged since the March assessment.
Above normal to well above normal snow pack still exists in the northwestern portions of
Manitoba and has remained generally unchanged since the March snow survey.
The U.S. and Saskatchewan portions of the Souris River have snow packs ranging between
150-200 per cent of normal. The snowpack is higher than reported in March with a few
stations reporting higher equivalent water content.
Based on April 6th and 7th field and air based surveys, snow water equivalent in the snow pack
ranged from 80 mm (3.1 inches) to 120 mm (4.7 inches) in the Upper Assiniboine and 80 mm
(3.1 inches) to 160 mm (6.3 inches) in northwestern parts of Manitoba.
In summary, recent reports from snow ground surveys indicate the snowpack has remained
relatively unchanged since the March mearsurements for Manitoba and the American portion
of the Red River and slightly increased for the Manitoba, Saskatchewan and North Dakota for
the Assiniboine, QuAppelle and Souris basins.
Spring Run-Off Potential
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The expected 2013 potential spring runoff is based on 2012 measurements of soil moisture at
freeze up, snowpack conditions as of April 7th 2013, and the average future weather
conditions (Figure 7).
The runoff potential is variable across Manitoba, ranging from near normal to above normal.
The runoff potential is generally near normal in the Red River Basin with above normal levels
in a few portions of the Pembina River and south eastern Manitoba.
Runoff potential in Manitoba is slightly higher than forecasted in the March Flood Outlook,
being near normal to above normal in the Souris basin, and the Assiniboine watershed. There
are few areas with well above normal runoff potential, in the Saskatchewan portion of the
Assiniboine Basin upstream of the Shellmouth Reservoir.
The overall runoff potential in the Interlake Region is above normal, similar to that predicted in
the March Flood Outlook.
There is a risk of normal to above normal runoff potential in northern parts of the Province.
Some parts in the North West including the northern areas of Lake Winnipegosis, The Pas are
likely to see well above normal overland flooding.
Regions to the east of Lake Winnipeg including Berens River have above normal runoff
potential, while Island Lake area has well above normal risk of runoff.
Spring runoff could change significantly if future precipitation and breakup conditions differ
from the average.
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River Ice Conditions and Ice Jamming
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Based on mid-March measurements this year, ice thickness in the Red River ranged between
48 cm (1.6 feet) and 56 cm (1.8 feet) and between 40 cm (1.3 feet) to 66 cm (2.2 feet) for the
Assiniboine River. As of April 10th, the ice thicknesses generally remain unchanged from the
March measurements.
In the Interlake Region, the ice thickness is 15 cm (0.5 feet) to 91 cm (3 feet).
Normal ice thickness varies according to the size and the location of the river and typically
ranges between 30 cm (1.0 foot) and 61 cm (2.0 feet).
Spring weather affects deterioration of ice and will be a significant factor in determining ice
strength at break-up.
Due to the delayed melt there is a high probability of rapid melt which may lead to greater
frequency and magnitude of ice jams on Manitoba’s major rivers.
It is difficult to predict the time of occurrence and extent of ice jamming. However with the
extensive ice cutting and the Amphibex ice breaking activities ice jamming and related flooding
on the lower Red River will be reduced.
Localized brief flooding can occur when and where ice jams develop, even with below average
river flows.
River Forecasts
Spring flood outlooks evaluate three weather scenarios that account for additional snow, melt rates
and spring rain fall based on statistical analysis of the past 30-40 years of climate data. The three
future weather scenarios are referred to as ‘favourable’, ‘average’ and ‘unfavourable’. The terms
‘favourable’, ‘average’ and ‘unfavourable’ are referred to as the lower decile, median and upper decile
conditions, respectively. There is a one-in-ten chance of the weather being ‘favourable’ or better and
there is a one-in-ten chance of it being ‘unfavourable’ or worse.
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Favourable weather conditions is characterized by little additional precipitation which varies
spatially between watersheds and a gradual snow melt.
Average weather is characterized by normal rainfall and temperature.
Unfavourable weather is significant wide spread precipitation with a rapid snow melt.
Additionally, three terminologies used to categorise levels of flooding are;
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Minor flooding occurs when minimal or no property damage is expected, but there is potential
for some public threat, such as inundation of roads.
Moderate flooding occurs when there is potential for some inundation of structures and roads
near drains, streams, rivers and lakes. It may be necessary to evacuate people and move
property to higher elevations or safer locations.
Major flooding occurs when there is potential for extensive inundation of structures and roads.
There is likelihood of significant evacuations of people and movement of property to higher
elevations or safer locations.
Red River
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The potential for spring flooding for the three weather scenarios remains the same as the
March Flood Outlook,ranging from minor to major on the Red River main stem. Although soil
moisture conditions were generally below normal at the time of freeze-up, there is normal to
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above normal and widespread snowpack in most of the basin. With favourable weather from
now on, minor localized flooding is expected. Under such conditions, peak levels would be
around those of 2010.
For median conditions, there could be minor to moderate flooding and levels would be
comparable to those seen in 2011.
With unfavourable weather conditions major flooding is likely. Levels in the Red River main
stem would be higher than 2011 but slightly less or same as 2009 from Emerson to Winnipeg.
Flooding is expected to occur in small tributaries such as the LaSalle, Roseau, Rat and Morris
rivers.
Water levels north of the City of Winnipeg are likely to be close to 2009.
There is sufficient community protection along the river as community dike elevations are
higher than the predicted flows (Figure 8).
The 2009 flood caused the Highway 75 to be closed for 36 days.
Operation of the Floodway and the Portage Diversion; City of Winnipeg
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Levels at James Avenue are forecasted to be 5.4 m (17.7 feet), 5.7 m (18.8 feet) and 6.2 m
(20.5 feet) for favourable, average and unfavourable weather conditions, respectively.
Operation of Portage Diversion and Red River Floodway occurs for all weather scenarios
Pembina River
The risk for flooding has been revised upwards but remains within the range from minor to major
for the Pembina River.
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The favourable weather scenario could produce minor localized flooding.
The average weather scenario would produce minor to moderate flooding in low lying areas
near the main stem, higher than 2005.
Due to above average snow water equivalent in the snow, an unfavourable weather scenario is
expected to produce major flooding with levels less than those of 2006.
Roseau River
The spring flood risk has increased from low to major on the Roseau River. The soil moisture levels
are generally below average but the snow water content ranges from normal to above average.
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The average weather scenario would produce moderate flooding similar to 2006.
The unfavourable weather scenario could produce major flooding with over bank levels slightly
above those of 2009.
The National Weather Service has forecasted for unfavourable weather conditions 204 cms
(7200 cfs) on the Roseau River at Caribou, Minnesota. Flows at Dominion City, Manitoba will
attenuate to 142 cms cms ( 5000 cfs).
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Assiniboine River
There is a risk of moderate to major flooding on the Assiniboine River due to normal to above normal
soil moisture in the upper portions of the watershed and above normal snow water equivalent in most
of the basin. With the higher QuAppelle and Souris rivers forecast the Assiniboine river forecast has
been revised upward.
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With favourable weather conditions, overbank flooding could occur along the Assiniboine
River from Shellmouth to St Lazare.
With average weather from this point on, the Assiniboine river could experience moderate
flooding with over bank flows occurring from Shellmouth to Griswold. River levels would be
close to 2006 levels.
The unfavourable weather scenario would result in major flooding of the Assiniboine valley
from Shellmouth to Brandon, similar to 1974 levels (Figure 9). Levels would be much lower
than those seen in major floods of 2011, 1995 and 1976. Brandon flood protection levels are
adequate for the unfavourable weather scenario but 1st street will require one coarse of super
sandbags.
The Qu’Appelle River at St Lazare forecast has been revised upward from the March Flood
Outlook providing moderate flooding under median weather conditions. Under unfavourable
weather conditions moderate to major flooding is forecasted. Flows on the Qu’appelle will likely
be in the order of 60 per cent of the 2011 flood for the unfavourable weather scenario.
Operations of the Shellmouth Dam have achieved a drawn level of 421.6 m (1,383.2 ft) to
provide storage capacity for reservoir inflows to reduce downstream flooding. The reservoir
has reached historical low level, 15 cm (0.5 feet) below 2011 level. Effective April 9th conduit
flow has been reduced to 8.5 cm (300 cfs). It is anticipated that Shellmouth could experience
spillway flow for all three weather scenarios if conduit flows remain at 42.5 cms (1500 cfs).
The Portage Diversion will be operated in accordance with the operating guidelines to manage
ice jamming on the Assiniboine River east of Portage and to provide flood protection to the City
of Winnipeg. The Portage diversion forecast has been revised upward as compared to the
March Flood Outlook requiring the Diversion to be operated under all weather scenarios. For
the lower decile, median and upper decile weather scenarios Portage Diversion flows would be
in the order of 266 cubic meter/second (cms) (9,400 cfs), 354 cms (12,500 cfs) and 524 cms
(18,500 cfs) respectively. Duration of diversion flows will be much shorter than 2011 unless
heavy spring and summer rainfall develops. Assiniboine river flows will be near 15,000 cfs east
of Portage.
South West
The forecast has been revised upwards for the Souris River. For all weather scenarios, flooding of the
Souris River and it’s tributaries will be moderate to major.
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There is potential for moderate flooding for the normal weather scenario for the Souris River.
Overbank flows are likely to occur from the US border to downstream of Hartney. Melita flood
protection levels are adequate.
The unfavourable weather scenario would result in major over bank flooding with peak stages
below 2011 (Figure 10) from the US/ Manitoba border downstream to the town of Souris. The
towns of Melita and Souris will need additional flood protection and Wawanessa should not
expect overbank flooding.
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Interlake Region
Both soil moisture and winter precipitation are normal to above normal in the Interlake Region.
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With favourable weather conditions from now on there is a chance of minor flooding. Average
weather conditions are expected to cause moderate flooding. Moderate to major flooding is
expected with unfavourable weather conditions.
With unfavourable weather, the Fisher River could experience major flooding with levels slightly
higher than 2009 levels.
The Icelandic River could experience near bank conditions for the unfavourable weather scenario
and levels are expected to be less than 2011 levels.
Whitemud River near the Westbourne area is likely to experience minor to moderate flooding.
Under unfavourable weather the levels are expected to be more than the peak 2005 level.
Pine Creek is expected to experience moderate flooding with favourable weather, while the
unfavourable weather scenario is likely to result in moderate to major flooding. As in most years
the risk of ice jamming is high for the Icelandic, Fisher and Whitemud rivers.
Fairford structure flows will remain at maximum discharge through the spring runoff period. The
forecasted Fairford river flows for the median and upper decile weather scenarios are expected to
be 232 cms ( 8,200 cfs), 326 cms (11,500 cfs) respectively.
Dauphin river forcasted flows for the median and upper decile weather scenarios are expected to
be 227 cms (8000 cfs), 317 (11,200 cfs) respectively.
The Waterhen river is likely to experience above normal flows for the median 226 cms (8,000 cfs)
and the upper decile forecast 241 cms (8,500 cfs).
Eastern Region
The soil moisture is below normal but the snow water content is normal to above normal for this
region.
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Favourable weather conditions could produce minor localized flooding.
The average weather scenario could lead to minor to moderate flooding.
The unfavourable weather scenario could produce moderate flooding due to overbank flows in
areas like the Poplar, Bloodvein, Bisset and Berens rivers.
Manitoba Lakes
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Lake Manitoba is expected to be close or higher than the top of the operation range at the
conclusion of spring runoff. With median conditions the lake is expected to peak at 247.6 m
(812.4 feet) close to the top operating range of 247.6 m (812.5 feet). The lake level would rise
0.8 foot higher than the upper operation range 247.9 m (813.3 feet) with unfavourable
conditions. The current level is 247.4 m (811.8 feet).
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Lake St Martin is currently at 244.1 m (801.0 feet). Lake levels for the normal weather scenario
are forecasted to be 244.3 m (801.5 feet) and 244.7 m (802.7 feet) for the unfavourable
weather scenario.
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Based on Manitoba Hydro analyses, with median conditions Lake Winnipeg is expected to rise
from its current average level of 217.4 m (713.3 feet) to 217.8 m (714.4 feet) by end of May.
The forecast level is within the desirable range.
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Lake Winnipegosis is likely to stay near its current level of 253.7 m (832.3 feet) under
favourable weather conditions. The levels could rise a half foot and one foot under median and
unfavourable weather conditions, respectively. The expected levels are more than one and
half feet lower than the 2011 peak level.
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Record flooding is expected near Red Deer Lake with all weather conditions. The current level
of Red Deer Lake is 261.7 m (858.6 feet). The upper decile scenario of Red Deer Lake levels
would likely be close to the peak level in 2006, 264.8 m (868.8 feet), which is four feet higher
than in 2011. The favourable weather scenario is likely to be one and a half feet higher than
2011 peak levels.
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Dauphin Lake is expected to rise up to one, two and three feet above the upper regulation
range of 260.5 m (854.8 feet) under the favourable, average and unfavourable weather
conditions. The current level is 260.3 m (854.2 feet).
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Shoal Lakes levels will experience a half foot rise with favourable and one foot rise with
median conditions. With unfavourable weather conditions, the level is likely to rise close to two
feet which is half foot lower than the record level in 2011. The Shoal Lakes current level is
261.8 m (859.1 feet)
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White Water Lake under median weather conditions is expected to experience a one foot rise
from the current level of 497 m (1630.7 feet). With unfavourable weather conditions, the lake is
forecasted to rise one and half feet to a level of 1632.1 feet (497.4 m), which is nearly a foot
lower than the natural spill elevation.
Northern Manitoba and The Pas Regions
Soil moisture and snow cover are both near normal to above normal in Saskatchewan and Manitoba
portions of the Saskatchewan River Basin.
 Minor flooding is likely with favourable weather conditions from now on.
 The average weather scenario could produce minor to moderate flooding. The unfavourable
weather scenario calls for localized moderate to major flooding especially if there is rapid melt
in areas with heavier snowpack like the Pasquia Region. The Saskatchewan River is predicted
to see levels similar to those of 2006. The river would be expected to remain within its banks.
With median weather conditions the Carrot River is expected to be close to bank full level
corresponding to a peak flowrate of 232.2 cms ( 8200 cfs). With the unfavourable weather
scenario, the Carrot River is expected to overflow its banks corresponding to a peak flow rate
of 269 cms (9500 cfs) and levels much higher than those experienced in 2011.
 Swan River may see minor flooding with favourable weather scenario 141.6 cms (5000 cfs),
moderate flooding similar to 1979 with median weather conditions 198.2 cms (7000 cfs) and
moderate to major flooding that would be less than 2006 and higher than 2011 under
unfavourable weather scenario 229.4 cms (8100) cfs.
 Soil moisture in the Thompson area is above normal with the snowpack being near normal.
Local runoff conditions are likely to be normal to above normal with both median and
unfavourable weather.
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Most of other parts of Northern Manitoba, north of latitude 55, are expected to experience near
normal runoff conditions. Additional information for northern lakes can be obtained from
Manitoba Hydro.
Flood Preparations
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The Manitoba government and municipalities are continuing to prepare for spring flooding.
This includes collaborating with municipal emergency management teams to review existing
emergency response plans, sharing information through conference calls and flood
preparedness meetings.
The ice jam mitigation program north of Winnipeg is complete with ice cutters and Amphibex
machines working along the Red River to weaken the ice. Approximately 29 km of Red river
ice cutting and breaking is complete. The ice jam mitigation program has also addressed
cutting and breaking of ice in a number of Manitoba’s rivers.
Forecast Updates
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This is the final outlook. Daily flood reports will be issued once active melt initiates and runoff
commences. Based on the April 10th long range weather forecast, runoff may commence
around mid April.
Detailed forecast (Text and Charts) available at
http://www.gov.mb.ca/mit/floodinfo/floodoutlook/forecasts_reports.html#spring_flood_outlook
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Table 1.
Manitoba Infrastracture and Transportation --- Hydrologic Forecast Centre
FORECAST SPRING PEAK STAGES FOR RED, ASSINIBOINE, SOURIS
All Water Levels in Feet Above Sea Level Unless Noted
April 9, 2013
Predicted Spring Peak Stages
Flood
Dyke
Comparative
**Weather Condition
Stage
Elevation
Spring Peak Water Levels
Favourable Average Unfavourable (Rural)
(Towns)
RED RIVER (Flood Control Works in Operation)
2010
2006
2009
Emerson
Letellier
St.Jean
Morris
Ste. Agathe
St. Adolphe
Above Floodway Inlet
Below Floodway Inlet
Winnipeg-James Ave.
" (Above Datum)
Selkirk (Town Bridge)
788.0
783.4
779.3
776.1
769.0
764.3
758.8
752.5
745.3
17.7
720.5
790.0
784.3
781.5
778.8
772.0
767.6
762.7
753.7
746.4
18.8
722.0
791.0
784.7
782.4
780.9
774.0
768.2
765.7
755.4
748.1
20.5
723.5
783.2
780.1
771.6
769.4
771.0
757.5
760.0
752.0
745.6
18.0
727.5
794.0
790.6
788.0
787.4
778.5
775.5
754.1
26.5
787.85
782.85
778.8
775.1
766.9
762.3
759.0
14.25
723.5
789.5
783.8
781.0
779.3
771.0
766.6
763.4
753.0
748.0
20.4
723.6
790.8
785.2
782.9
781.9
773.7
769.2
766.8
2011
790.3
784.6
781.8
779.3
771.7
767.2
764.1
22.5
726.6
ASSINIBOINE RIVER (Flood Control Works in Operation)
2006
1974
1995
Shellmouth
1400.5
1402.0
1402.5
1353.0
1412.5 1410.9
1415.0
Russell
1341.6
1343.9
1348.5
1343.2
1347.9 1341.5
1352.0
Millwood
1319.0
1322.5
1327.0
1321.6
1324.0
1332.1
St. Lazare
1283.2
1285.0
1288.0
1283.7
1293.4
1285.4 1286.3
1288.8
Miniota
1234.0
1238.5
1242.8
1236.8
1240.2 1243.0
1245.0
Virden
1214.0
1215.4
1217.0
1213.5
1215.0 1216.9
1218.4
Griswold
1194.0
1196.1
1199.5
1196.4
1199.2
1201.0
Brandon (Ist Street)
1169.3
1170.6
1174.2
1172.0
1170.4 1174.5
1178.8
Portage Inflow 1st Peak
--2nd Peak-no ice-(cfs)
Diversion 1st Peak (cfs)
Portage la P.(Southport)
844.0
847.0
847.5
848.0
847.9
Baie St. Paul
793.0
795.0
795.5
796.0
764.1
797.5
795.9
Former P.R. 412
783.0
PTH 1 east-(Lido Plage)
775.0
Headingley
764.5
767.0
767.3
767.5
765.9
767.7
766.0
SOURIS RIVER
2009
1975
Coulter
1414.2
1416.3
1418.5
1406.5
1416.6
Melita (PTH #3)
1405.8
1408.6
1410.4
1401.6
1408.7 1409.32
Napinka
1398.8
1400.9
1402.8
1394.1
1400.9
Hartney (u/s Dam)
1384.1
1386.4
1388.6
1379.0
1385.4
1387.0
Souris (u/s Dam)
1348.7
1351.0
1355.5
1354.0
1352.2
Wawanesa
1149.8
1151.8
1154.1
1155.0
1150.2
1152.7
Notes:
Forecast includes possible effect of stationary ice, but effect of possible ice jams is not included.
** --Favourable-- refers to a combination of future weather conditions whose
severity has been exceeded 90% of the time during the past 40 years---(lower decile condition)
--Average-- same as above except has been exceeded 50% of the time---(median condition)
--Unfavourable-- same as above except has been exceeded 10% of the time---( upper decile condition)
# This represents a brief peak due to an ice jam or subsequent flow surge, usually less than six hours in duration.
2011
1414.4
1352.7
1290.1
1247.4
1222.0
1203.6
1182.9
850.5
800.0
769.3
2011
1420.0
1411.6
1359.9
1158.0
DETAILED SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SMALLER WATERSHEDS
**Predicted spring peaks based on Favourable, Average and Unfavourable Weather Conditions
Apr. 9, 2013
(All Flows in Cubic Feet per Second)
Stream Location
Red River Watershed:
Aux Marais - Christie
Boyne River - Stephenfield
LaSalle River - Sanford
Morris River - Rosenort
Buffalo Creek - Rosenfeld
Deadhorse Creek - Rosenfeld
Rat River - Otterburne
Roseau River - Dominion City
Seine River - Prairie Grove
Seine River Diversion - PTH 59
Tourond Creek - Tourond
Seine River at St. Anne (u/s Div.)
Cooks Creek u/s Diversion
Assiniboine River Watershed:
Birdtail Creek - Birtle
Conjuring Creek - Russell
Gopher Creek - Virden
Little Sask. River - Minnedosa
Oak River - Rivers
Qu'Appelle River - St. Lazare
Shell River - Inglis
Sturgeon Creek - Winnipeg
Omands Creek - Metro Route90
Souris River Watershed:
Antler River - Melita
Elgin Creek - Souris
Gainsborough Creek - Lyleton
Medora Creek - Napinka
Pipestone Creek -PTH 83
Waskada Creek - Cranmer
**Predicted Spring Peak Flow
Bankfull
Favourable Average Unfavourable (no Ice)
Table 2
Recent Spring Peaks
Largest Peaks on Record^ (Year)
2005
550
1,180
1,590
1,900
2,040
2,440
650
2,400
1,040
1,470
440
520
320
650
1,470
2,080
2,380
2,500
2,980
810
3,440
1,260
1,940
550
710
400
840
2,060
3,060
3,360
3,440
4,100
1,120
4,970
1,640
2,800
740
1,020
520
500
2,500
3,500
*5,000
3,000
4,000
2,500
*4,500
1,500
4,000
650
2,000
1,200
920(2002)
2500(1969)
4000(1956)
4200(1987)
4400(1996)
5000(1996)
3400(1923)
5000(1927)
1200 (1969)
3600 (2004)
550(2004)
1000(1966)
270(2004)
980(1992)
2500(1923)
4200(1979)
4400(1996)
4900(1974)
6400(1997)
4600(1927)
5100(1974)
1900 (2004)
3800(1996)
610(1979)
1000 (2001)
470(1998)
1200(1996)
3700(1970)
4300(1974)
4600(2004)
5400(1971)
6400(1971)
5000(2002)
5400(1997)
2000 (1979)
4200(1998)
860(2002)
1100 (1979)
500(2001)
1300(1979)
4200(1979)
4400(1997)
4700(1970)
7000(1979)
9000(1974)
5900(1950)
6000(2002)
2100(1997)
4700(1967)
900(1997)
2100(1974)
700(1996)
2600(1974)
4700(1974)
4400(1970)
5900(1974)
7800(1997)
10200(1979)
6100(1997)
8100(1950)
2200(1974)
8100(1997)
950(1974)
3000(1997)
1850(1997)
430
100
180
1,090
210
3,200
690
1,500
230
490
120
210
1,270
250
4,000
810
1,700
270
620
160
260
1,640
360
5,400
1,040
2,100
330
1,500
300
800
3,000
1,400
*5,000
1,500
1,700
500
1500(1970)
230(1992)
430(1996)
3100(1979)
670(1995)
3800(2001)
1580(1979)
2100(1987)
260(1993)
1600(1976)
260(1979)
470(1974)
3100(1970)
680(1974)
3900(1996)
2280(2006)
2200(1997)
330(1983)
1700(2001)
270(2003)
580(1995)
3200(1995)
830(1976)
4600(1995)
2295(1995)
2200(1996)
490 (1962)
1700(1979)
400(1995)
610(1969)
3300(1947)
1200(1979)
5900(1976)
2430(1976)
2200(1979)
500 (1979)
2400(1995)
440(1974)
1600(1976)
3600(1969)
1200(1969)
8900(1955)
2670(1988)
2900(1974)
600 (1997)
820
790
250
270
1,090
70
1,060
980
320
320
1,290
90
1,500
1,370
460
400
1,660
130
1,500
1,000
1,000
500
2,000
300
2200(1996)
1000(1999)
1000(1999)
580(1969)
2600(1974)
310(1975)
2600(1974)
1100(2001)
1100(1996)
740(2001)
2600(1955)
310(1985)
2600(1948)
1400(1974)
1500(1969)
760(1999)
3500(1996)
350(1979)
3700(1969)
1900(1976)
1600(1974)
1000(1996)
4000(1969)
360(1996)
4200(1976)
1900(1996)
3100(1976)
1400(1976)
5400(1976)
680(1976)
** Favourable and unfavourable weather refers to the lower decile and upper decile condition respectively for melt rate and precipitation.
* Flooding could occur with lesser flows at these stations due to possible backwater from nearby rivers.
Note: 1. Peak stage on any stream could be briefly higher than implied by the peak flow if channel becomes blocked by ice or debris.
2. Most forecasts remain the same as provided in March unless otherwise mentioned.
^ Some of the values are summer peaks.
2006
2009
2011
434
1,750
2,941
3,602
2,747
2,062
1,547
2,860
1,077
4,237
473
1,356
-
960
3,600
3,955
5,049
5,100
4,000
2,133
3,500
1,515
5,932
586
2,052
-
1,483
1,607
4,026
1,660
2,769
2,288
4,697
3,743
448
-
1,010
1,508
4,132
4,697
1,462
1,843
2,257
4,026
703
4,485
759
1,610
590
2005
1,462
186
671
3,100
1,006
2,737
572
2,020
2006
862
90
55
1,500
252
1,980
2,278
2,412
2009
844
773
2,440
2,355
172
509
3,026
738
2,536
1,995
2005
1,126
1,744
487
858
1,324
-
2006
18
918
89
530
466
-
2009
279
302
133
268
911
-
2,740
1,321
1,190
4,450
-
DETAILED SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SMALLER WATERSHEDS
**Based on Favourable, Average and Unfavourable Weather Conditions
Apr. 9, 2013
(All Flows in Cubic Feet per Second)
Stream Location
Pembina River Watershed:
Pembina River - Rock Lake (feet)
Pembina River - Windygates
Badger Creek - Cartwright
Cypress Creek - Clearwater
# Pembina River - Neche
Interlake & Eastern:
Brokenhead River - Beasusejour
East Fisher River - Hodgson
Fisher River - Peguis Townsite
Icelandic River - Riverton
Whitemouth River - Whitemouth
Predicted Spring Peak Flow
Bankfull
Favourable Average Unfavourable (no Ice)
1334.4
4,200
1,690
770
8,000
1335.2
6,700
1,980
900
9,900
1337.0
8,500
2,730
1,240
13,500
1337.0
7,000
2,500
1,700
900
1,330
2,660
3,040
1,400
1,200
1,540
3,080
3,520
1,925
1,600
1,820
3,640
4,160
2,800
4,000
1,200
2,200
5,500
5,000
Table 2 continued
Recent Spring Peaks
Largest Peaks on Record ^ (Year)
6700(1998)
3600(1997)
1900(1976
10300(1974)
7300(1995)
3700(1995)
2000(1982)
8500(1995)
8100(1969)
5600(1979)
2400(1974)
7500(1996)
11200(1974)
5600(1974)
2600(1971)
9500(1979)
13500(1997)
7300(1969)
2700(1997)
15100(1997)
2900(1960)
1200(1986)
3000(1976)
3700(1960)
6400(2002)
3000(2001)
1400(1963)
3100(2001)
4300(1976)
7000(1996)
3500(1950)
2200(1976)
3100(1986)
4600(1986)
7500(1950)
4100(1997)
2300(1974)
3700(1974)
5500(1979)
8400(1974)
5800(1974)
2500(1979)
4200(1979)
7200(1974)
10200(1997)
Westlake-ThePas:
Big Grass River - Glenella
720
960
1,560
2,000
2900(1969)
3200(2001)
3400(1979)
3700(1970)
3900(1976)
Carrot River - The Pas
7,200
8,200
9,500
*8,000
7800(1997)
8000(1972)
8500(1985)
8500(1979)
8700(1974)
Ochre River - Ochre River
720
855
990
3,000
2600(1969)
3000(1971)
3200(1953)
3800(1986)
7500(1975)
Pine Creek - Pine Cr.Station
720
960
1,440
800
1000(1969)
1100(1960)
1400(1970)
1500(1965)
1600(1979)
Red Deer Lake Inflow
21,000
24,200
30,000
10,000
13000(1957) 13800(1965) 15500(1972) 16800(1955)
16900(1954)
Swan River - d/s Swan River
5,920
7,030
8,140
7,000
7000(1979)
7200(1997)
7700(1974)
7700(1983)
8500(1995)
Turtle River - Laurier
1,620
1,980
2,520
3,500
3000(1971)
3100(1953)
3600(1974)
7100(1986)
8000(1975)
Valley River - Grandview
1,920
2,300
2,880
3,000
2000(1971)
2800(1983)
3000(1995)
3000(1979)
3100(1974)
Vermilion River - Dauphin
1,500
1,750
2,130
6,000
3600(1957)
5200(1956)
5400(1975)
5800(1979)
6000(1974)
West Squirrel Creek - Austin
270
360
510
400
260(1965)
260(1974)
290(1969)
340(1962)
550(1970)
Whitemud River - Keyes
2,020
2,690
3,360
3,500
4000(1969)
4600(1960)
4900(1974)
6400(1979)
7300(1970)
Whitemud River - Westbourne
2,700
3,600
4,700
6,000
5400(1996)
6300(1976)
6500(2001)
8600(1974)
10800(1979)
Wilson River - Ashville
3,800
4,300
4,930
5,000
3400(1999)
3400(1998)
4100(1995)
5400(1983)
5800(1979)
Woody River - Bowsman
4,100
4,500
5,000
6,000
4900(1974)
5400(1972)
6000(1983)
8100(1993)
9800(1988)
Saskatchewan R. at The Pas
42,500
53,000
64,000
70,000
85100(1974) 90700(1917) 99900(1915) 103100(1916) 105900(1948)
**Favourable, average and unfavourable weather refers to the lower decile, median and upper decile condition respectively for melt rate and additional precipitation.
(There is a 10 % chance that the peak could be at or lower than the 'Favourable' value and a 10% chance it could be at or greater than the 'Unfavourable' value)
* Flooding could occur with lesser flows at these stations due to possible backwater from nearby rivers.
# US National Weather Service Forecasts
Note: 1. Peak stage on any stream could be briefly higher than implied by the peak flow if ice or debris blockages develop.
2. Most forecasts remain the same as provided in March unless otherwise mentioned.
2005
2006
2009
2011
1336.4
4,061
2,041
1,331
6,890
2005
1,677
2,514
3,121
3,167
1338.2
12,996
2,761
2,539
11,500
2006
1,434
2,027
2,655
3,700
1339.3
16,000
16,900
2009
15,300
3,000
1,409
3,708
4,591
4,591
2005
4,500
530
6,003
1,928
1,144
593
2,546
3,813
1,080
1,384
73,000
2006
2,930
7,300
760
31,000
9,640
2,990
600
3,780
6,670
1,530
9,750
67,000
2007
1,978
7,310
388
21,076
5,262
1,529
1,006
1,953
3,182
752
3,454
63,920
2,151
3,743
5,721
6,215
6,463
3,779
6,427
4,838
80,871
SNOW SURVEY MAP
103°0'0"W
102°0'0"W
101°0'0"W
100°0'0"W
99°0'0"W
98°0'0"W
97°0'0"W
96°0'0"W
95°0'0"W
55°0'0"N
55°0'0"N
104°0'0"W
86
THE PAS
NORWAY HOUSE
^
107
Saskatchewan
50°0'0"N
51°0'0"N
52°0'0"N
92
53°0'0"N
53°0'0"N
112
147
137163
151
135
150
101
102
120
105
94 130134
78
81
107
99 112 109 118 94
115
106
95
75
YORKTON
87 ^107
93 90
10475
81
110
DAUPHIN
97
^
146
77
53
136 48 86
93 94
52
143
66
84
111
52°0'0"N
108
80
99
109
81 67
74 76
52
71 6766
58 69
55
69
65
46
77
49°0'0"N
^
103°0'0"W
102°0'0"W
Water Content (mm)
March 12-15 (in red) &
April 6 (in green), 2013
Manitoba and Eastern Saskatchewan
47
10184
12874
104°0'0"W
^
93
82
101°0'0"W
®
100°0'0"W
0
45
69
108 93
11670
80
99°0'0"W
90
70
WINNIPEG
^ 71
96
ESTEVAN
82
71
95 BRANDON
105
75
51°0'0"N
115
112
112
^
52
180
km
88
87
96
65
50
98°0'0"W
62
78
50°0'0"N
80
Manitoba
108
113
109
77
ISLAND LAKE
^
97°0'0"W
61
108
96°0'0"W
49°0'0"N
54°0'0"N
111
54°0'0"N
87
10091
95°0'0"W
Hydrologic Forecasting Centre
Manitoba Infrastructure & Transportation
Percent of Potential
Runoff Index (PRI)
until April 7th
of 2013
THOMPSON
LA RONGE
MANITOBA
Provisional Data
Subject to Revision
SASKATCHEWAN
THE PAS
NORWAY HOUSE
ISLAND LAKE
Hydrologic Forecast Centre
Manitoba Infrastructure
and Transportation
Data Sources: Environment
Canada, Fire Program,
and U.S. NWS
PRINCE ALBERT
ONTARIO
Legend
Below Normal
Near Normal
YORKTON
Above Normal
RED LAKE
DAUPHIN
Well Above Normal
REGINA
BRANDON
WINNIPEG
:
KENORA
1:4,271,151
0
ESTEVAN
50
100
200
km