Coffee
Transcription
Coffee
Special annual rep ort: state of the coffee service industry Coffee sales rise, so do costs State of the Coffee Service Industry In the second half of 2013 and start of 2014, the majority of office coffee service providers saw increased revenues, however, an increase in green coffee bean prices and many locations with tight OCS budgets kept the growth moderate. New trends include local roasters and bean-to-cup single-cup brewers. By Emily Refermat, Editor Automatic Merchandiser VendingMarketWatch.com September 2014 O sponsored Overall, the revenue for the office coffee service segment continued to climb this year reaching $4.5 billion. While this is modest growth compared to the year before, it is still a record high for the last decade (chart 1). Operators report four main reasons for the rise in coffee sales. In areas where the economy is improving, the number of workplaces offering a beverage program to employees as a perk increased. Growing employee numbers at existing locations also increased OCS revenues. A third reason for better coffee sales is the strong demand for single-cup among consumers. Finally, OCS providers report that the consumer is more educated than ever before about the quality of coffee they drink. If quality and variety is important to the location, these OCS customers are demanding better coffee options and are willing to pay the higher price per cup. The findings of the 2014 Automatic Merchandiser State of the Coffee Service Industry report are based on input from more than 180 operators from across the U.S. who reported on their OCS businesses. Full-line vending operators, OCS operators who offer vending and OCS-only operators provided the data and insight into the coffee service channel, which continues to break sales records for a fourth straight year. OCS pulls up totals A majority, 71.2 percent of OCS providers reported a rise in total operation sales over the last 12 months, in addition to increased coffee sales (chart 2). OCS was reported as the strongest segment of companies’ growth. Many operators indicated that increasing coffee sales balanced out stagnant or declining segments, such as vending. Although OCS sales increased, operators saw tighter margins due to the high price of raw green coffee. Since April of 2011, the cost of green coffee has mostly dropped, according to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), see chart 3. However, the price of green coffee spiked in April of 2014 to $1.70 per pound, up nearly 70 cents from the last quarter of 2013. The price has since gone down in the last several months, but OCS providers are unsure what to expect of green coffee prices for the remainder of 2014. Some coffee-growing countries have reported that crops are being destroyed by drought and leaf rust while others report having a surplus of green coffee. The volatile green prices make it difficult for OCS operators to plan and execute price adjustments to their coffee and service this year. Many operators reported raising prices and absorbing the increased BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Chart 1: OCS revenues – 10-year history 5 4 3 3.56 3.74 3.92 4.11 3.93 3.73 3.93 4.12 4.33 4.50 2 1 0 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 Automatic Merchandiser by VendingMarketWatch.com September 2014 The average price charged to consumers for coffee increased over the past 12-months SS pp ee cc ii aa ll aa nn nn uu aa ll rr ee pp oo rr tt :: ss tt aa tt ee oo ff tt hh ee cc oo ff ff ee ee sS ee rr vv ii cc ee ii nn dd uu ss tt rr yy Chart 2: Operator sales change, 4-year review ● Sales Rose ● sales Declined ● No change 6% 12% 9% 17% 16.8% 14.5% 22% 77% 66% 76.5% 2011/12 2010/11 12% 71.2% 2013/14 2012/13 Chart 3: Composite green coffee prices, 2010 to June 2014 200 150 100 2011 2012 Source: International Coffee Organization, London, U.K. 2013 Jun Jul Jan Feb Mar Apr May Oct Nov Dec Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Jan Feb Mar Dec Oct Nov Jul Aug Sep Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Oct Nov Dec 0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 50 Jan Feb Mar CENTS PER POUND 250 2014 Chart 3B: How rising costs are being handled, 5-year review ● Raising prices ● Absorbing ● Combination ● Other 1.3% 6.5% 12.1% 24.2% 48.5% 15.2% 2009/2010 38.3% 48.2% 48.9% 34% 13.6% 17% 2010/2011 2011/2012 53% 30.4% 9.8% 2012/2013 23.1% 63.5% 12.2% 2013/2014 *Other includes changing product mix, divesting business, workforce changes, etc. costs at the same time (chart 3B), due to competitive pressures from other operators, paper supply companies and direct competition from single-cup cartridge manufacturers. Prices per cup increased from 2013 to 2014, although not by a significant amount. The national average revenue for fractional pack Automatic Merchandiser coffee was relatively flat at 13 cents per cup, compared to 12.9 cents the year before (chart 4B). Single-cup revenues increased, with prices up 3.4 cents to reach 46.5 cents per cup. Higher costs of coffee and location price point demands are affecting the types of coffee operators are selling. In the past year, OCS pro- VendingMarketWatch.com September 2014 viders report an increase in private label coffee, which is generally a less expensive option than premium national brands, which slipped in share of sales for 2013/2014. Local roasters meet demands Possibly a more surprising category change, however, is the emergence Special annual rep ort: state of the coffee service industry Operator pricing activity Chart 4A: Operator pricing activity, 5-year review ● Raised prices ● Lowered prices ● No change YesYesYes 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% Yes Yes 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 51.4% 51.4% 51.4% 51.4% 51.4% 45.7% 45.7% 45.7% 45.7% 45.7% 24.5% 24.5% 24.5% 24.5% 24.5% 88.2% 88.2% 88.2% 88.2% 88.2% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 74% 74% 74% 43.3% 43.3% 43.3%50% 43.3% 50% 43.3% 50% 74% 74% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 2009/2010 2009/20102010/2011 2010/2011 2010/2011 2010/2011 2009/2010 2009/2010 2009/2010 2010/2011 of local roasters accounting for 12.5 percent share of sales in OCS (chart 5). This is the first year that the AM 2014 State of the Coffee Service report has included local coffee brands. The decision to include local roasters was based on early indicators of this growing category. Locally roasted coffees are usually less expensive than national, comparable roasts and blends of the same gram per cup. In addition, operators note that local roasters are able to provide a better tasting coffee as there is less time between its roasting and consumption. Part of the popularity of local coffee brands is the ‘local’ aspect. Several operators stated that customers like to support their community, and locally sourced coffee can be a positive way to do so. Single-cup remains strong contender Single-cup was added as another segment of OCS sales in the AM 2014 State of the Coffee Service Industry report. Operators note that over the past year, single-cup has driven revenue increases, but lowers the profit margins in doing so. Single-cup coffee accounts for over 13 percent of OCS sales (chart 5). That is more than the 12.5 percent from local coffee brands and approaching the nearly 20 percent share of sales of national and private label coffees. Automatic Merchandiser 50% 50% 49.2% 49.2% 49.2%50% 49.2% 50% 49.2% 50% 6.7% 6.7% .8% .8% .8% 15 12 10.8¢ 11.7¢ 12.9¢ 13¢ 9 7.1¢ 7.7¢ 7.7¢ 7.8¢ 8.0¢ 7.9¢ 3 0 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Chart 4C: Revenue per cup, single-cup coffee, 4-year review Revenue 2010/2011 42.5¢ 2011/2012 41.8¢ 2012/2013 43.1¢ 2013/2014 46.5¢ Chart 5: % OCS sales by product category, 5-year review Private label coffee Local coffee brands National brand coffee Value frac packs Espresso/cappuccino K-cups Other single-cup Other coffee* Total Coffee Other hot beverages Soft drinks/juices Bottled/filtered water Creamers/sweeteners Cups/paper products Other 09/10 39.69% 10/11 28.11% 11/12 28.23% 12/13 18.24% 21.4% 26.92% 28.08% 24.37% 4.94% 3.6% 3.77% 5.38% 4.63% 70.66% 7% 3.5% 4% 5% 5.5% 4% 12.07% 70.7% 4.9% 5.39% 5.7% 5.63% 5.41% 2.27% 9.86% 69.94% 5.54% 5.73% 4.75% 6.62% 6.17% 1.25% 17.36% 65.35% 6.39% 6.57% 7.29% 6.48% 6.51% 1.88% *Includes flavored, whole bean and varietal. VendingMarketWatch.com .8% .8% 2011/2012 2011/2012 2011/2012 2011/20122012/2013 2012/2013 2012/2013 2012/2013 2012/2013 2013/2014 2011/2012 2013/2014 2013/2014 2013/2014 2013/2014 Chart 4B: Revenue per cup in cents per cup, Fraction pack plumbed in/pourover coffee, 10-year review 6 50% 50% September 2014 13/14 21.79% 12.5% 21.88% 3.45% 1.85% 7.94% 6.02% 4.75% 80.18% 3.97% 1.79% 3.92% 5.24% 4.48% 0.41% thermal Special annual rep ort: 13.8% 11.6% state of the Single cup coffee 19.8% 20.1% 22.3% service industry Chart 6: Plumbed-in, automatic and thermal as % of total, 4-year review ● Pourover glass pot ● Automatic glass pot ● Plumbed-in glass pot ● Plumbed-in thermal ● Pourover thermal ● Automatic thermal ● Single-cup 15.8% 19.8% 17.1% 12.9% 20.1% 12.3% 2.2% 12.1% 24.4% 20% 21% 13.1% 9.6% 2010/2011 10.4% 3.1% 2011/2012 As single-cup coffees increase in sales, so does the placement of singlecup brewers. Countertop, brew-bythe-cup machines account for 22.3 percent of brewers placed on location in 2013/2014 (chart 6). As single-cup is more expensive per cup than other types of thermal and pourover OCS options, that likely kept the increase in single-cup brewer placements modest with only a 2.2 percentage-point increase over the prior year. Despite 22.3% 11.3% 13.8% 20% 11.6% 2012/2013 the number of placements, operators unanimously report that locations are inquiring about single-cup options and prices when searching for coffee service. Operators have seen consumers enthusiastically use single-cup systems when locations are willing to pay for that higher cost option. Cartridge-style brewers from well-known manufacturers are still the leaders in the single-cup brewer OCS marketplace. Key benefits of 20.1% 7.4% 18.3% 16.5% 5.5% 12% 8.3% 2013/2014 these machines include brand recognition of the coffees available for these systems and their ability to brew coffee-based specialty drinks and personalized beverages. Some locations do not have the budget to offer cartridge single-cup options to their employees, but operators are finding other less expensive ways to give them what they want. One option operators are offering at locations with tighter budgets is Chart 7: Estimated marketshare of single-cup brewer placements in the U.S., 5-year review Marketer Bodecker Brewed BUNN Product(s) Bodecker Single serve pod brewers Cafection Cafejo Crane De Jung Duke Avalon Cafejo Café System, Genesis Virtu Filterfresh Grindmaster Keurig Kraft LaVazza Mars Drinks Newco Rheavendors Saeco USA Sara Lee Starbucks Suncana Filterfresh Grindmaster Keurig Gevalia, Tassimo Professional Espresso Point, Lavazza Blue Mars Drinks (Flavia) Smartcup, Freshcup, CX-3 Rhea, Cino, Saeco, Estro Douwe Egberts Starbucks PodPro Technologies Coffea Coffea VE Global Solutions Venus, Cypris, Juno, Prosyd Wolfgang Puck Wolfgang Puck Other Automatic Merchandiser VendingMarketWatch.com 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 0.29% 0.23% 0.26% 0.36% 0.00% 1.60% -0.36 3.69% 2.31% 1.24% 4.10% 2.20% 1.11% 3.89% 2.36% 0.95% 1.98% 2.35% 1.34% 3.25% 0.00% 0.31% 0.80% 1.27 -2.35 -1.03 2.08% 1.38% 36.79% 0.60% 2.12% 35.50% 0.30% 0.44% 2.69% 0.42% 0.92% 1.65% 1.26% 43.00% 0.66% 1.98% 31.80% 0.31% 0.35% 2.21% 0.51% 0.81% 1.43% 1.35% 46.23% 0.81% 1.68% 30.13% 0.41% 0.33% 2.00% 0.44% 0.75% 4.69% 2.93% 6.03% 0.14% 46.22% 39.62% 2.91% 3.85% 2.12% 0.40% 23.41% 37.52% 2.15% 1.72% 0.05% 0.00% 0.61% 0.03% 1.67% 1.94% 1.64% 2.60% 0.53% -1.76 -5.89 -6.60 0.94 -1.72 14.11 -0.43 -0.05 -0.58 0.27 0.96 0.03% 2.00% 0.60% 0.35% 0.16% 1.91% 0.15% 0.27% 0.22% 1.64% 0.31% 0.22% September 2014 2012/13 2013/14 0.03% 0.12% 0.38% 0.76% 0.00% 1.90% 0.11% 0.75% % Change -0.03 0.59 -0.27 -0.01 Special annual rep ort: state of the coffee service industry Chart 8: Percent of net sales by location type, 5-year review ● Offices ● Industrial Plants ● Restaurants, delis, bakeries ● Convenience stores ● Government/military ● Schools/colleges ● Retail outlets ● Other (Health care/hotels) 3% 5% 1% 1.4% 4.8% 1.5% 3.5% 6% 8% 7% 54% 7.6% 6.2% 2009/2010 2.1% 5.2% 5.4% 6.9% 4.5% 55.4% 18.5% 16% 1.9% 3.8% 3.3% 5.2% 48.8% 7.2% 6.3% 15.1% 55.8% 18.7% 2010/2011 2.7% 5.4% 3.5% 10.1% 2011/2012 10.5% 45% 8.3% 7.3% 17.3% 2012/2013 2013/2014 Chart 9: Account populations by size bean-to-cup systems which are slowly gaining market share (chart 7). Beanto-cup systems allow whole-bean coffee to be stored in a hopper attached to the machine. When45.7% a user wants a cup of coffee, the beans are ground and the coffee is prepared instantly 54.3% to the user’s specifications. Many of these units have a touchscreen that can enhance the user experience. And 2009/2010 because the bean-to-cup system uses whole beans, the cost per cup is lower than prepackaged single-cup options. Pod brewers are also showing positive growth. They offer the convenience of prepackaged cartridges and since they are made 2.7% ● Less than 10 11.8% 7.3% ● 11 to 14 ● 15 to 19 10.9% 11.8% 38.3% ● 20 to30.5% 29 ● 30 to 49 16.4% 17.3% 68.3% 61.7% ● 50 to 74 21.8% ● 75 to 99 ● 100 or more 2010/2011 6% 13% 13% 38.7% 22% 20% 2011/2012 2012/2013 with filter-like paper instead of plastic, are considered more environmentally friendly than many cartridge-style single-cup options. Pods are often less expensive than cartridges as well. 2% 4% 32.6% 20% 61.3% 67.4% 2013/2014 2013/2014 2012/2013 Locations vary While many OCS customers are asking for better quality coffee or single-cup options, there is still the nagging issue of the price a location is willing to pay for coffee service. Fuel Charge Activity Chart 10a: Company billed customers for fuel, 5-year review ● YES ● No 45.7% 30.5% 54.3% 2009/2010 38.7% 38.3% 68.3% Chart 10B: Average amount charged for fuel per delivery, 5-year review 2011/2012 5 4 61.3% 61.7% 2010/2011 $3.50 $3.80 $4.15 32.6% 2012/2013 $3.94 $3.91 3 2 1 0 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 Automatic Merchandiser VendingMarketWatch.com September 2014 67.4% 2013/2014 0 Chart 11a: Have added or reduced staff in the last 12 months Sales 83% Sales 9% 32% 0.8% 15% 46% 11.1% Repair Warehouse Office 2013/2014* 2012/2013* Delivery 0.8% 58.3% 9% 32% 16.7% 15% 18.1% 46% 14.2% 55.6% Other 11.1% 0% 0% 0% 0% sales, decreased from 48.8 percent to 45 percent in 12 months (chart 8). This drop is likely due to the increase in other types of locations. Operators report an increase percentage of their OCS sales coming from industrial plants, restaurants, convenience stores, schools and retail, supplanting those from offices. Coffee providers who served large military and government accounts this past year reported revWarehouse Other enue declinesOffice as a result of the government shutdown. 11.1% 11.1% 11.1% Other 55.6% bottom line doubled in 2013/2014 (chart 9). In contrast, operators 60 indicated that for the past year, 50 they reduced service most often at accounts with 11 to 49 employees 40 due to the layoffs and financial challenges at those locations. Larger 30 accounts, those with 50 or more 20 employees, saw the biggest increase in share of sales. 10 One interesting data point related to0 the growth of coffee service sales Repair is the Sales decline in Delivery sales in office locations. That segment, as a share of 11.1% 16.7% 58.3% 11.1% Repair Warehouse Office 2013/2014* 2012/2013* Delivery 55.6% 16.7% 16.7% 0 Other Sales 55.6% 0% 0.8% 10 55.6% 0% 20 25% 0% 11.1% 11.1% 30 25% 11.1% 25% 40 55.6% 55.6% 50 58.3% ● 2012/2013 ● 2013/2014 60 9% 15% 32% 18.1% 46% 14.2% 44% 33% Repair 55.6% 11.1% 48.2% 49.4% Warehouse 2009/2010 Automatic Merchandiser 49% 51% 50.5% 49.5% 60.8% 39.2% 0% 0% Delivery 60% 2.4% 2.4% 25% 37.1% 0% 11.1% 11.1% KNOW 16.7% 2.9% ● YES ● NO ● Don’t 0% 55.6% 11.1% Chart 12A: Have added products that address environmental concerns, 5-year review 58.3% 24% 52% Other Chart 11c: If reduced staff, which areas? 83% Operators said locations are either price sensitive, meaning they won’t pay above a certain amount for coffee service, or they want more products and better service and are willing to pay more money for it. Compared to previous years, operators indicate that fewer locations are balancing coffee service costs versus service demands. If the location’s decision comes down to the price of the coffee service, operators have found it difficult to price the coffee for good margins. Delivery Repair Warehouse Office Some good news is that the number of workplaces wanting to offer coffee service has increased in the past year. More than half, 57.7 percent, of OCS providers report more locations in 11.1%serving 11.1% 2013/2014 than in the previous year. Only 8.7 percent of25% operators indicated they decreased coffee ser55.6% 55.6% 58.3% 16.7% vice at locations. Of the locations adding OCS service, many 11.1% were small workplaces with less than 10 employees. The 2013/2014* 2012/2013* share of sales this type of location contributed to the OCS providers’ 55.6% 24% 2013/2014 0 Sales Office 25% 44% 40 20 Sales 11.1% 33% 36.8% 10.3% 2012/2013 Warehouse 60 0% 6% Repair 52% 52.9% Delivery ● 2012/2013 ● 2013/2014 100 80 35.1% 2012/2013 2013/2014 coffee service industry the Chart 11b: If added staff, in which areas? ● Added ● Reduced ● No change 59.1% 18.1% of 14.2% s t20a t e 33% rep ort: 58.3% annual 24% Special 44% 52% 40 Office Other 2010/2011 VendingMarketWatch.com September 2014 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 Special annual rep ort: state of the coffee service chart 12B: Products added that address environmental concerns, 5-year review industry 20 10 0 Recycled products Water filtration (cups, filters, devices to reduce pods, utensils) bottled water Coffee with sustainability features * Includes multiple mentions 40.2% 40.2% 2012/ 2013 2012/ 2013 Other 38.8% 38.8% 61.2% 61.2% 2013/ 2013/2014 2014 * 2012/2013 includes multiple mentions greater array of nontraditional OCS products, especially in urban areas. preferences and the ability to create coffee-based drinks. A saturated marketplace remains a challenge for operators especially among price-sensitive locations who shop for the lowest cost without regard for service or quality. Still, local roasters and beanto-cup systems are some tools operators are using to satisfy the end user’s gourmet coffee palate while meeting Coffee ends strong OCS providers had another good year. The improving economy has resulted in locations increasing employee counts and refocusing on coffee as an employee benefit in the workplace. Single-cup is gaining market share and increasing sales as more users focus on individual taste Automatic Merchandiser ● NO Large offices are also demanding a Consumers demand better coffee Consumers are more educated about coffee than ever before and opting for gourmet coffee choices. The National Coffee Association (NCA) reports that 34 percent of Americans consume a gourmet coffee beverage daily, up from 31 percent in 2013, according to the NCA National Coffee Drinking Trends (NCDT) market research study. Daily non-gourmet coffee drinking is down to 35 percent, a drop of 4 percentage points from the year before. Large offices are also demanding a greater array of nontraditional OCS products, especially in urban areas. Products such as dried fruit and nuts in bulk dispensers, iced beverages, fruit delivery, cold brew and fresh pastry cases are examples of the emerging OCS requests from locations who want to have competitive offerings in order to attract the best employees. Specific demands placed on OCS providers generally varies with geographic placement of the locations. 59.8% 59.8% 0% 2.2% 0% 6.5%* 2.3% 30 26.7% 40 23.9% 30.4% 20.4% 50 53.3%* ● YES 19% 31.5% 38.8% 9.8%* 30.2% 60 57.1% 35.9% 40.8% 30.4%* 40.7% ● 2008/2009 ● 2009/2010 ● 2010/2011 ● 2011/2012 ● 2012/2013* Chart 13: Company currently offers online ordering on its Website VendingMarketWatch.com the cost of services that the employer is willing to pay. It’s a balancing act, especially with the unpredictable future cost of coffee making it hard to establish prices that will produce profitable margins for the next year. Right now, OCS remains a strong business thanks to the coffee-smart consumer and multitude of brewer and coffee options. Average Total Sales Revenue Change Per Region Northwest 6 percent increase Southwest 4.58 percent increase Midwest 5.34 percent increase Southeast 2.14 percent increase Northeast 3.36 percent increase Mid-Atlantic 3.40 percent increase National 4.20 percent increase September 2014 Special annual rep ort: state of the coffee service industry OCS operators expand into micro markets M Micro markets are a fast growing industry segment and OCS operators don’t want to be left behind. In the past 12 months, when OCS providers launched new services, many looked to micro markets for added revenue. OCS providers report adding micro markets to diversify offerings, and many are finding that consumers are more willing to pay a higher price for a cup of coffee in a micro market than in a vending machine or traditional office coffee brewer. OCS expansion The 2014 State of the Coffee Industry report found that 33.88 percent of operators expanded into new lines of service. Of those 33.88 percent, more than half of the operators expanded into micro markets. OCS-only operators accounted for 25 percent of those. Micro markets 54.35% 40.7% Other 15.22% Water 15.22% Janitorial supplies 10 20 30 40 50 60 Willingness to pay Coffee service operators expanding into micro markets are finding new challenges such as what types of coffee sells best in micro markets. The overwhelming majority sees the new business as a way to offer more, higher quality choices to the consumer. Some operators are witnessing unexpectedly low OCS sales in micro markets, however, most operators are reporting an increase in coffee service sales in micro markets due to their ability to offer more premium options and the consumer’s willingness to pay more for a better-quality cup of coffee. Automatic Merchandiser Wisconsin-based operator “Single-cup systems break and counter-top brewers do not have the necessary capacity and are difficult to service. There is currently not a good, cost-effective solution for coffee in the micro markets.” Roger Sweeney, Ace Coffee Bar “In some cases Dennis P. Dionne BE’S Coffee & Vending Service, Inc. 8.7% 0 different types of offerings and larger size cups. And they are willing to pay higher prices for a cup of quality coffee versus vending.” they (micro markets) have not increased sales from traditional vending.” 6.52% Pantry service “People like many VendingMarketWatch.com Types of coffee service system For those coffee service operators who expanded into micro markets in 2013/2014, 14.93 percent placed a bean-to-cup brewer in a micro market location, while 10.45 percent of coffee service operators reported placing a Keurig single-cup brewer in a micro market location. Flavia drink stations were placed by 7.46 percent of operators and 23.88 percent reported placing another type of single-cup brewer. Pour-over, automatic and thermal brewers trailed in micro market placements at 2.99 percent. September 2014 “Premium coffee has sold, even in locations where we provided free, loose grind brew systems.” Texas-based operator “Coffee service in general has been a challenge in the markets. Having the proper system for the control of cups continues to be an issue. The cups do not have a bar code for scanning and are frequently picked up for other uses.” North Carolina-based operator