Pre-Feasibility Study Integrated Flood Risk Management for the City

Transcription

Pre-Feasibility Study
Integrated Flood Risk Management for the City of
Valenzuela
February 2014
Executive Summary
Cities Development Initiative for Asia
i.
Page |2
Project Overview
1.
The City Government of Valenzuela approached CDIA in January 2014 to provide
technical assistance in the areas of “Integrated Flood Risk Management” to address the
flooding and drainage problems the City was facing.
2.
The objective of this assignment was mainly to carry out at a “Pre-Feasibility Level” a
study aimed at identifying potential physical and non-physical interventions for flood
mitigation and drainage improvements, and to identify possible sources of funding for
formulated intervention sub-projects. Preliminary assessments of the social, economic and
environmental impacts of proposed interventions and the City Government’s capacity in
dealing with various aspects of flood risk management formed part of the study.
3.
The Study, which commenced with a Kick-off Meeting held on 8 September 2014
with Valenzuela City officials, was carried out by a team of international and national
consultants over a 5-month period. The Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) for the “Integrated Flood
Risk Management for the City of Valenzuela” involved the following main activities which
were grouped into two main phases:
Phase I: Review and Preliminary Design

Initial Activities

Review Hydro-Meteorological Network in River Basins

Assess Land Use Conditions and Watershed Management

Flood Hazard and Climate Change Assessment

Flood Damage Estimates

Flood Zoning

Flood Emergency Plan Assessment

Assess Performance of Existing Flood Protection & Stormwater Facilities

Identification and Prioritisation of Potential Interventions
Phase II: Formulation and Preparation of an Investment Project

Identify High-Priority Flood Protection Facilities and Improvements To The
Existing Drainage Systems

Prepare Concept Designs and Preliminary Cost Estimates

Financial & Economic Analyses

Initial Environmental Examination

Assess Potential Social Impacts

Capacity Building for Improved Flood Management

Prepare a Design and Monitoring Framework (DMF)
4.
Above activities were successfully carried out by the Consulting Team and have
culminated in the preparation of the final report for the Study. Details of the Study, findings
and proposed investment projects are contained in the Main Report and accompanying
Annexes.
A.
Stakeholder Consultations
5.
Stakeholder consultations played an active role in carrying out the PFS. Key
informant interviews were conducted with concerned City staff and officials of related
government agencies involved in flood protection and flood risk management in order to
obtain relevant information for the Study. A rapid socioeconomic survey was conducted
among 20 barangays considered as highrisk flood prone areas, with a total of 300 household
respondents. The survey identified the socioeconomic impacts of floods, determined the
Page |3
vulnerabilities of the communities to floods, coping mechanisms during flood occurrences,
perceived benefits of the proposed program, and willingness to participate in communitybased flood management schemes. Focus group discussions (FGD) with target high
risk/flood prone barangays were held with barangay officials, representatives from the
community groups and residents engaged in disaster response. To obtain feedback from a
mix of stakeholders regarding the proposed interventions prior to final selection of
interventions, a workshop was held in January 2015 with about 120 participants majority of
whom were from the flood affected barangays.
6.
An overview of the Study’s findings, proposed investment projects and financing are
presented in the following sections.
ii.
B.
Sector Status: Performance, Key Issues and Framework
Climate Change Adaptation
7.
Climate change has been definitely increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme
weather events in the Philippines, particularly in coastal regions including Metro Manila.
These areas are the most vulnerable to damages and destructions. Several key impacts to
these coastal areas, as identified by the IPCC, are low land inundation and wetland
displacement; altered tidal range in rivers and bays; changes in sedimentation patterns;
more severe storm surges and flooding; increased saltwater intrusion into freshwater
aquifers; and increased wind and rainfall damage.
8.
According to the PAGASA-DOST projections, the whole of the National Capital
Region would experience higher temperatures during summer seasons, and increased
rainfall during the rainy season, by year 2020 and 2050. Higher temperatures will results in
water shortages, and increased rainfall may induce heavy and intense flooding. Seasonal
temperature will increase by 0.9 to 1.1oC by 2020 and 1.8 to 2.2oC in 2050. Seasonal
rainfall will change by -33.3% to 8.5% in 2020 while a much wider range of -38.5% to 23.3%
by 2050 producing a net increase on the amount of annual rainfall.
9.
In order to be consistent with the recent April 2013 study “Master Plan for Flood
Management in Metro Manila and Surrounding Areas”, the pre-feasibility study for
Valenzuela City have also adopted the A1B scenario for the climate change analysis for the
PFS with an 11.9% increase in the 2-day rainfall depths for all return periods and 0.24m sea
level rise for the backwater analysis of the Meycauayan and Tullahan Rivers and overland
flooding. When the increases to the historical rainfall data were applied, the increased
depths would allow a comparison of the frequency of the storm events with the historical
record using the standard statistical distribution method.
10.
The flood water level in the Meycauayan and Tullahan Rivers will be higher due to
climate change and thus floodwalls need to be increased and strengthened in order to
prevent 30-year return period floods from entering the City. Drainage facilities in Valenzuela
City will need to be enlarged and additional pumping capacity provided in order to evacuate
the additional floodwaters in a reasonable and economical amount of time, such as 48-72
hours.
11.
As compliance to the national directive, the City developed a local climate change
action plan for the period 2014-2018. Barangays will be directly involved with the Valenzuela
City Government in prioritizing climate change issues and identifying and implementing best
practices and other solutions. Climate change adaptation will now be incorporated as regular
functions down to the barangay levels. The City Units are expected to regularly update their
respective action plans to reflect changing social, economic, and environmental conditions
Page |4
and merging issues. The City of Valenzuela will have to furnish the CCC updates on their
CCA initiatives.
12.
The City’s local Climate Change Adaptation team identified 7 core development
areas: (a) health, (b) agriculture, (c) water, (d) biodiversity, (e) energy, (f) engineering and
infrastructure, and (g) environment. For each core development, the City identified the
climate change vulnerability and prioritized the key actions that must be done as adaptation
measures. Target stakeholders were identified and regular meetings are conducted to
monitor compliance and targets. The challenge is on the monitoring of actual benefits and
impacts to the adaptive capacity of the City in addressing vulnerabilities. The City must be
able to regularly assess the implementation of the plan, update when necessary and provide
some improvement plans.
C.
Social Assessment
13.
A rapid socioeconomic survey was conducted among 20 barangays considered as
high-risk flood prone areas, with a total of 300 household respondents. Among the surveyed
respondents, majority signified that the level of flooding in their area is from moderate (i.e.,
damage to furniture and fixtures) to severe (i.e., caused structural damage and loss of
assets). On the frequency of flooding, majority indicated that the flooding occurs during
extreme weather conditions only (i.e., extreme monsoon rains, strong typhoons, etc.). The
length of time before the flood would subside usually takes after several days.
14.
A significant number of respondents experienced adverse impacts of flooding on their
water supply sources and sanitary facilities, specifically with the water changing in color and
having foul odor after the floods and the toilet facilities being submerged in water or are still
clogged due to the recent floods. The latest flooding occurrence also resulted in structural
damages in the housing units, and damages on housing furniture and fixtures. Majority of the
respondents also experienced evacuation or temporary relocation, with an average length of
stay at the temporary shelter at about 3 days.
15.
The experience of the surveyed respondents on being financially worse off due to
floods is further validated during the focus group discussions at the barangays. The families
become financially worse due to the inability of the working family members to go to work,
the additional expenses for the house repairs and cleaning, and for medicines or medical
services for the illnesses or injuries due to floods. This is further aggravated by the increase
in prices of local food supplies and cost of transportation during flood events
16.
The potential social impacts and risks of the proposed structural interventions of the
program include (a) partial or full loss of assets due to right of way requirements, with an
initial estimate of 450 affected structures, (b) impact on the adjacent towns of Obando and
Meycauyan in Bulacan, Malabon and Quezon City in Metro Manila, (c) traffic congestion
during construction, and (d) potential encroachment of informal settlers near the new flood
protection structures.
D.
Environmental Conditions
Environmental Conditions
17.
Aside from high-density residential and commercial zones, the City of Valenzuela is
known to host a large number of industrial establishments. Wastewaters produced by the
households and these establishments have significant effects on the quality of the
waterways, which often overflow during moderate to heavy rains posing public hazards and
increasing health risks associated with contaminated floodwaters.
Page |5
18.
The City has four major rivers, namely: Polo River, Coloong River, Meycauayan
River, and the Tullahan River. All four rivers discharge into Manila Bay. From the water
quality assessment done for the proposed Valenzuela Sewerage Project (reported in March
2014 by Maynilad), the measured dissolved oxygen levels in the Tullahan was 0.5 mg/l,
which was way below the 5 mg/l Class C criteria. Total coliform levels were also high
at12x106 MPN/100 ml. High BOD concentrations of 162 mg/l, which was practically sewage,
were reported for the Tullahan River sampling point.
19.
In Polo River, total coliform levels were also high at 11x106, which showed the
contribution of untreated domestic wastewater entering the waterways. As reported in the
EIS of the Valenzuela Sewerage Project, the measured dissolved oxygen level in Polo River
was 0.9mg/l, which was also below the 5mg/l Class C criteria. COD measured was 1,474
mg/l with BOD of 40 mg/l indicating highly non-organic discharges possibly coming from
industrial sources.
20.
As reported in the EMB annual report of NCR in 2012, the Meycauayan River has an
annual average BOD of 47 mg/l for the year 2012 which was too high for the BOD criteria of
<7 mg/l for class C waters. The average DO level of Meycauayan River was 2 mg/l, which
was also way below the 5 mg/l Class C limit.
21.
With regards to the surface drainage of the City, the wastewater generated from the
western side of Valenzuela goes to the Manila Bay through Obando, while the wastewater
discharges from the eastern side are received first by to the Meycauayan River before
discharging also to Manila Bay. The wastewater from the southern side of the City drains to
the Tullahan River, which will also drain to Manila Bay.
Water Supply and Sanitation
22.
Maynilad, the government’s water concessionaire for the west zone of Metro Manila,
provides the water service in the City. Of the total Valenzuela customers of Maynilad in
2013, about 73,308 connections or 91.28% are residential and 3,063 connections or 3.81%
are commercial. Less than 2% or 1,204 connections are industrial customers while 3.41% or
2,738 connections are semi-business and bulk services.
23.
There is no sewerage system yet in Valenzuela. However, Maynilad has committed
to the improvement of the sewage management in the area through the proposed
Valenzuela Sewerage System Project. This is part of the commitment of Maynilad to the
National Sewerage and Septage Management Program (NSSMP) of the national
government, which aims to increase the coverage of sewerage in highly urbanized cities in
the Philippines.
24.
The Valenzuela Sewerage System Project has two major components: conveyance
system and the sewage treatment plant. This PhP 3.8 billion project is partly financed
through a loan of Maynilad from the World Bank with Land Bank of the Philippines acting as
financial intermediary. The detailed design of the conveyance system was already
completed and the bid documents for the civil works were released last July 2014.
Submission of tenders for the design and build package for the STP was set last October
2014.
25.
The sewage treatment plant (STP) will have an initial capacity of 60 MLD, which can
be expanded up to 125 MLD. It will be constructed on a 2.56-hectare property bought by
Maynilad from the Valenzuela City government along F.Bautista St., in Barangay Marulas
adjacent to the old Ecology Center of the City. The treated effluent from the STP will be
eventually discharged to Manila Bay through the Tullahan River system.
E.
Page |6
Upper Watershed and Land Use Management
Upper Watersheds
26.
There are three river basins that contribute to the flooding situation in Valenzuela
City: (i) the Bulacan river basin of 391sq. km, the Meycauayan river basin of 170 sq. km
(consisting of the Marilao river sub-watershed, Meycauayan river sub-watershed, and
Obando river sub-watershed), and the Malabon-Tullahan river basin of 91 sq. km.
27.
The three river basins are extremely vulnerable to rainfall, floods, and winds whether
or not climate change is considered or not. For the past several decades, illegal logging,
uncontrolled urban expansion, and uncontrolled land occupation by informal settlers in the
river basins has greatly stressed the natural conditions of the watersheds. With climate
change predictions, the increase in rainfall and higher intensities will increase further the
erosion rates in fragile soils, collapse river banks, destroy wildlife habitat, and cause
disasters for the residents along the river banks. Pollution is very high both in toxic
substances, domestic rubbish, and industrial and commercial discharges.
Valenzuela City Land Use Plan: 2009-2018
28.
The LCCAP highlights a need for (i) re-greening, (ii) requiring rainwater catchments,
such as on-site water tanks and cisterns, (iii) installing pervious pavement sections in
parking lots and residential/commercials areas, (iv) requiring residents to strengthen house
foundations and 1st floor walls, (v) relocating higher power points, (vi) requiring higher
design and construction standards and more strenuous requirements of building permits,
and (vii) installing a combined sewerage treatment system, treatment plant as well as
household connections. In order to finance these improvements, it might be appropriate to
provide a low interest or no interest loan to the residents and commercial enterprises as part
of a future project.
29.
Valenzuela City has prepared an updated version of their city land use plan (CLUP)
in 2014 but this shows only minor revisions to an earlier one and primarily in the area
classified as industrial and residential. Because there is a clear correlation between flooding
and land use it will be important for Valenzuela City to continuously review its CLUP and
modify it accordingly. As stated, Valenzuela has prepared a comprehensive land use plan for
the period 2009-2018 that shows a significant increase in industrial zoning. The CLUP
incorporates 11 major zoning areas including: residential-5 zones, commercial-3 zones,
institutional, industrial, cultural, parks and recreational, utilities, waste disposal, cemeteries,
easements, and fish ponds. The land use plan recognizes the importance of maintaining low
lying areas as an integral part of integrated water resources management (IWRM) as they
are predominantly zoned as fish ponds or river banks. Conversion of these low lying areas
should be avoided as they play a key role in flood retardation and retention and also in city
beautification efforts. Continuing to reclaim and convert fish ponds to urban areas increases
the risk of flooding and the vulnerability to the population; particularly the marginalized urban
poor who are often living along rivers and creeks. Thus, the wetland areas, and open areas
such as parks, river banks, creek banks, and other public areas, should be designated as
conservation areas with low possibility of conversion to other uses. Easements along
national rivers should be cleared of squatters and minimum set-back regulations enforced so
that the rights-of-way and/or easements can be kept clear and clean, as mandated under
national laws. These open areas could easily be tree lined and provided with walkways or
bike paths and used for other community-public endeavours.
F.
Page |7
Flooding and Drainage
Understanding the Flood Control and Drainage Problems in Valenzuela City
30.
River Basins - There are three river basins that contribute to the flooding problems
in Valenzuela City. For the past several decades, illegal logging, uncontrolled urban
expansion, and uncontrolled land occupation by informal settlers has greatly stressed the
natural conditions of the watersheds. Pollution is high both in toxic substances, domestic
rubbish, and industrial and commercial discharges.
31.
North Boundary - Meycauayan River; Several efforts have been made in the past to
protect the cities with permanent concrete flood walls and earth dikes with varying degrees
of success. There is a vast wetland area on the right (north) bank of the river stretching
nearly to Manila Bay which acts as a detention basin. The Meycauayan River is ranked in
the top thirty most polluted rivers in the world.
32.
South Boundary - Tullahan River. The Tullahan River has some reaches protected
by solidly constructed concrete flood walls. But in most reaches the flood walls are private
boundary walls made of hollow block and in various stages of degradation. The Tullahan
River is also ranked as one of the top thirty most polluted rivers in the world.
33.
West Side Boundary - Tidal Overland Flow .The low lying areas along the western
boundary of Valenzuela City are routinely inundated by high tides crossing overland from
Obando.
34.
Interior Drainage - Interior drainage: (i) there is insufficient pumping capacity on the
major drainage channels, (ii) secondary drains are too small and water must travel long
distances to join the main drainage channels, (iii) culverts are blocked with rubbish and
siltation, (iv) tertiary drains along the sides of the roads are also blocked with rubbish and
silt, and (v) depressed areas cannot drain without installing a pumping unit or using portable
pumps.
35.
Construction - Construction in Valenzuela City will always be difficult and
expensive. Access to major construction sites should be done using the rivers to transport
material and equipment. Hauling material through the interior roads, particularly for
retrofitting the flood walls along the two rivers and building roads, should not be allowed due
to the damage to the internal road network and disruptive nature of the work on the local
communities.
36.
Existing Sluice Gates and Pumping Facilities - At the present time, there are 13
combination sluice gate/pumping facilities and 1 sluice gate facility providing drainage for
Valenzuela City. The locations are shown in Figure ES-2.1. Discussion is shown in the main
report and in Annex 4.
Page |8
Figure ES-2.1: Location of Existing Sluice Gates and Pumping Facilities
Assessment of the Existing Flood Protection and Drainage Facilities
37.
Flood Protection - To provide flood protection for Valenzuela City, the existing flood
wall on the left bank of the Meycauayan River should be strengthened and the top of the wall
must be at an elevation of 13.0-13.5 msl. It should be continuous (unbroken) from
Meycauayan City to Obando.The existing flood walls are not continuous and several reaches
were constructed to fairly low standards. The flood wall along the Tullahan River is not
continuous but as reported by city officials, during floods, only a small area of Valenzuela
City is flooded and the city is not at high risk.
38.
Drainage Improvement - All of the sluice gates/pumping facilities are in need of
rehabilitation and upgrading. Many of the structures are only 10-20 years old but are
dilapidated. All of the facilities experience heavy loads of rubbish at the intakes, particularly
plastic bottles and plastic bags, which entangle the impellers of the pumps causing
stoppages and damage to them. The pumping capacity is less than 21% of the need for
Page |9
drainage. None of the pumping facilities have a dedicated standby pump and engine and all
of the sluice gates are manually operated using a chain and pulley system.
Sewerage and Sanitation Infrastructure
39.
Sewerage and Sanitation Infrastructure - There is no conventional sewerage
system as yet in Valenzuela. However, Maynilad has committed to the improvement of the
sewage management in the area through the proposed Valenzuela Sewerage System
Project. This is part of the commitment of Maynilad to the National Sewerage and Septage
Management Program (NSSMP) of the national government, which aims to increase the
coverage of sewerage in highly urbanized cities in the Philippines.
40.
The Valenzuela Sewerage System Project has two major components: conveyance
system and the sewage treatment plant. This PhP 3.8 billion project is partly financed
through a loan obtained by Maynilad from the World Bank with Land Bank of the Philippines
acting as financial intermediary. The detailed design of the conveyance system has been
completed and the bid documents for the civil works were released last July 2014.
Submission of tenders for the design and build package for the STP was set last October
2014.
41.
Interception and Conveyance System - The installation of conveyance system is
divided into two stages. Stage 1 will cover the Polo River, Meycauayan River, M. Hernandez
St., Pasolo/Rincon Road, T. Santiago, I. Santiago and McArthur Highway while for Stage 2,
T. Santiago Road will be covered.
42.
Stage 1 will cover 55% of the total pipelines and appurtenances and be completed by
2015-2016. Stage 2 which will increase coverage to 61% and be completed in the next 2 to 3
years after Stage 1 completion. With these 2 stages, most of the areas west of the NLEX will
be served by the sewerage project. The remaining areas, which are east of NLEX, will be
completely served with sewerage system from 2022 to 2037.
43.
During Phase 1, a total of 18.9 km of gravity sewers and force mains will be laid,
while additional 24 km of pipelines will be installed to serve Stage 2.
44.
Sewage Treatment Plant - The sewage treatment plant (STP) will have an initial
capacity of 60 MLD, which can be expanded up to 125 MLD. It will be constructed on a 2.56hectare property bought by Maynilad from the Valenzuela City Government along F.Bautista
St., in Barangay Marulas adjacent to the old Ecology Centre of the City. The treated effluent
from the STP will be eventually discharged to Manila Bay through the Tullahan River system.
45.
Impact on the Development of Internal Drainage of the City - To optimize the
coverage and efficiency of Maynilad’s Valenzuela Sewerage Project, the City Government
should upgrade its internal drainage system so that all grey water generated in the serviced
areas are conveyed by the combined sewer lines and eventually treated prior to discharge.
The sewerage system will primarily rely on the existing drainage system of the City. The City
must ensure that drainage canals are free from obstructions (either from structures or solid
wastes) to allow free flow of the domestic wastewater and no accumulation in the gutters
and streets. An effective internal drainage operated and maintained by the City should
complement the sewerage system operated by Maynilad to ensure that streets are not
flooded with untreated domestic wastewaters.
46.
Any improvement on the flow and configuration of the drainage system particularly
those within the sewered areas must be coordinated properly with Maynilad to ensure that
the capacities of the pump stations are not compromised.
P a g e | 10
Flood Disaster Risk Reduction and Management
47.
Overview - The Philippines government has been promoting a culture of disaster
reduction by advocating disaster reduction as a core part of government’s policy and raising
public awareness in the nation as a result of natural disasters which the country has been
experiencing.
48.
Disaster Risk Reduction and Management in the Philippines was enacted by the
National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act of 2010 which is implemented at the
following tiers of government through the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management
Plan:
48.1. National
48.2. Regional
48.3. Provincial/City/Municipal
48.4. Barangay
49.
At the national level, disaster risk and reduction management activities are managed
by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC). At the
regional level, activities are managed by the Regional Disaster Risk Reduction and
Management Councils (RDRRMCs) through the Regional Disaster Risk Reduction and
Management Operations Centres (RDRRMOCs). At the local level, disaster risk and
reduction management activities for the City/Municipality and the barangays are managed by
the Councils (LDRRMCs) through the establishment of Local Disaster Risk Reduction and
Management Offices (LDRRMOs and BDRRMOs).
50.
As part of the non-structural measures component of the Study, the existing
institutional framework for disaster risk reduction and management at the various levels of
government were assessed in order to determine their effectiveness with regard to the
following thematic areas:
50.1. Disaster prevention and mitigation
50.2. Disaster preparedness
50.3. Disaster response
50.4. Disaster rehabilitation and recovery
51.
However, particular attention was paid to disaster risk and reduction management
activities and procedures currently practiced by the City of Valenzuela and its barangays.
These are discussed below.
52.
Assessment of Flood Disaster Risk Reduction and Management at the City
Level - To determine the effectiveness of the City’s preparedness, response and recovery
measures for flood disaster risk management, the Team held discussions with key staff from
the offices of the City’s Disaster Risk Reduction, Rivers and Waterways Management, the
Social Welfare Development and with other relevant personnel of the City in order to
understand and assess the current institutional setup, responsibilities and arrangements
including available resources (human, equipment, etc.) and to make appropriate
recommendations for improvements.
53.
Flood disaster risk reduction and management in Valenzuela City involves three main
City Offices as explained below:
53.1. Rivers and Waterway Management Office (RWMO)
The RWMO is responsible for overseeing to structural/physical mitigation
measures such as construction/rehabilitation, operation and maintenance of
dikes, pump stations, etc.; cleaning, dredging and maintenance of the City’s
rivers/waterways and drainage systems for flood protection purposes.
P a g e | 11
53.2.
Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office (DRRMO)
The DRRMO is responsible for overseeing to the non-structural/soft
measures aspects such as the City’s preparedness, response and recovery to
disasters.
53.3.
Social Welfare Development Office (SWDO)
The SWDO is responsible for overseeing to the social well-being of affected
flood victims at evacuation centres besides its normal task of providing social
protection and promoting rights and welfare of the poor and vulnerable
groups.
Valenzuela City DRRMO
54.
As required by the “Philippines Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act of
2010”, Valenzuela City has established a Local Disaster Risk Reduction and Management
Office. As per the Act, the overall aim of the VCDRRMO is to “set the direction,
development, implementation and coordination of disaster risk management programs”
within Valenzuela City.
55.
The Valenzuela City Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council has
formulated the “City Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Plan, 2013-2030” which
serves as road map for disaster risk reduction and management activities for the City and
Barangays.
56.
There is currently a total of 55 staff working within the VCDRRM Office. However all
the staff are employed as casual or are on individual contracts.
57.
Disaster Prevention and Mitigation - Valenzuela City Government is very active in
carrying out the goals of the NDRRMP as mandated in its efforts to be a resilient city in
reducing the hazard impact of flooding. The City’s Rivers and Waterways Office, Planning
and Engineering Office undertakes the construction of flood protection structures such as
temporary polder dikes in the critical flood-prone areas along the City’s boundary;
installation, operation and maintenance of pumping stations including sluice gates; cleaning
and dredging of the City’s rivers and drainage channels in order to minimise the risk of
flooding.
58.
Disaster Preparedness - The City’s Disaster Office, also referred to as the “Action
Centre”, is equipped with the necessary personnel and facilities required for evacuation and
rescue operations during natural disasters. The Office renders flood drills and rescue
operation exercises and training for its staff and the various barangay units for flood
preparedness.
59.
Evacuation centres and routes for flood affected areas and other natural disasters
have been set up by the City for local residents.
60.
Disaster Response - The City has developed its own protocol of operations for
normal and alert situations in the event of an impending disaster.
61.
The emergency response procedures for Valenzuela City and the manner in which it
is carried out during normal (non-alert) and alert situations seem to be efficient and also
working effectively. The guidance and continuous meetings of the City Mayor with the
Disaster Office, Flood Control and the Command Centre teams together with the active
participation of all City’s relevant divisions at every typhoon/disaster event outlines the
success of the City’s disaster response efforts.
P a g e | 12
62.
Disaster Rehabilitation and Recovery - This function is mainly performed at the
local level by the City’s Social Welfare and Development Office together with other
government agencies. Discussions held with the City’ SWD office indicate that after flood
disasters, services such as emergency financial assistance for accommodation,
psychological counselling, general assistance with rebuilding of livelihoods, resettlements,
etc., are provided to affected residents who need such services. For post-recovery, the
philosophy of “build back better” has been adopted.
63.
Capacity Assessment of DRRMO - the capacity of the DRRMO to meet its
obligations and its effectiveness in successfully implementing emergency responses during
flood disasters was assessed by the Consulting Team.
64.
The current set up of DRRMO is in line with the requirements stipulated under the
Act of 2010. It was brought to the attention of the Consulting Team that the staff employed
are only on casual basis. The staff expressed this as one of their main concerns. The Team
views this as a major issue, besides the uncertainty in employment, new staff have to be
trained each time a personnel leaves after acquiring the relevant skills, and as such there is
no continuity.
65.
In order to strengthen the DRRMO, it is recommended that, at least key staff, be
employed on permanent basis. This will ensure that skills and experience acquired are
maintained and sustained within the Organization which can then be successfully applied to
future disasters.
66.
Although the DRRMO undertakes a series of trainings, it was felt that specialised
training be given to its staff and also to the volunteers especially those involved with field
operations to help improve coordination of activities in the field during emergencies.
67.
Assessment of Flood Disaster Risk Reduction and Management at the
Barangay Level - There are standard procedures for flood disaster risk reduction and
management at the barangay level provided by the local government of Valenzuela. In
general, the barangays operate under the supervision and guidance of the LDRRMC
personnel. The barangays located in the flood prone areas frequently conduct Community
Disaster risk reduction and management orientation for flood disaster preparation.
Evacuation drills are also conducted to demonstrate precautionary measures to be taken
during heavy rains and flooding.
68.
Discussions with barangay officials revealed that the current framework for flood
disaster risk reduction and management is satisfactory. However, there is a strong need to
unify evacuation procedures especially with the engagement of volunteers having different
backgrounds and skills. It was therefore suggested that an “Operations Manual” which
clearly defines responsibilities and procedures to follow during evacuation could address this
important issue.
Assessment of Equipment & Facilities
69.
Although the Disaster Office is currently coping with the facilities possessed,
there is a need for the purchase additional equipment such as mobile base radios
and satellite phones, etc.
70.
A summary of items and associated costs for implementing the nonstructural
measures is shown in Table ES-2.1.
P a g e | 13
Table ES-2.1: Proposed Non-Structural Measures Cost
71.
Preliminary Flood Hazard And Flood Risk Maps - As part of the Pre-Feasibility
Study, the Team prepared preliminary flood hazard and flood risk maps for various flood
probabilities for the City to aid in the overall flood risk planning and management for
Valenzuela City. It is anticipated that these maps would be further developed for the City
during the Feasibility Studies to be carried out at a later stage.
72.
The flood risk maps were developed based on the factors mentioned below. These
are explained further in the main body of the report.
72.1. The magnitude of the flood hazard
72.2. Social impacts
72.3. Environmental impacts
72.4. Economic impacts
73.
For each of the categories, a scoring system (1-5) was awarded based on the
perceived level of risk by taking into account the factors mentioned above. The preliminary
flood risks maps were based on this assessment.
74.
The flood risk maps prepared for the 10, 30, 50, and 100-yr return period flood
events from the results of the hydrodynamic modelling and available GIS data are shown in
Appendix B of the Main Report.
75.
Flood Zoning - Flood zoning is one of the important tools used as a means of
nonstructural measures to minimise flood risks in flood-affected areas by controlling the type
of developments in these areas.
76.
As the PFS has developed preliminary flood risk maps, the City can use these maps
to define the type and also to limit developments in the flood risk areas. For example, for the
existing fishpond areas in the northwest, which are natural flood storage areas, further
developments (e.g. residential, etc.) should not be encouraged in order to minimise flood
risks.
77.
The City is encouraged to follow through its’ initiatives and to effectively implement
the Zoning Ordinance.
P a g e | 14
78.
Recommendations for Non-Structural Measures - The following are
recommended:
78.1. Provision of Flood Risk Maps for the barangays to assist with disaster
preparedness. The maps will serve as pre-disaster information to help them
identify most vulnerable areas and hence assist with evacuation planning.
78.2. Establish a centralized evacuation building to be operated by the City
government’s DRRM Office. This is necessary for proper coordination,
operation and maintenance of vehicles and equipment from a focal point.
78.3. Establish an Operation and Maintenance Team to manage the above.
78.4. Assign Officers-In-Charge who must be well trained to manage the
evacuation and rescue centres and volunteers. They must be willing to pass
on their knowledge and skills in evacuation and rescue procedures and
techniques to the volunteers from time to time.
78.5. Provision of Operations Manual for disaster management.
78.6. Additional financial support aside from every barangay fund for medical, food
and health purposes.
78.7. Purchase of additional upgraded flood warning devices, rescue boats,
medical kits, stretchers, life vest, flashlights, tents and rope.
78.8. Purchase of new engines for existing boats and emergency standby
generator sets.
78.9. Conduct advanced trainings for the volunteers and aids with regards to
evacuation and rescue procedures.
Economic and Financial Evaluation
79.
Financial Status of the City of Valenzuela Local Government - City revenues
comprise: (i) local taxes imposed on real properties, business operations, and residents; (ii)
an Internal Revenue Allotment (IRA) representing the City’s share of total national taxes
collected, and (iii) other revenues, from other city services and income generating city
assets. For the last five years, the revenue growth rate averaged 8% per annum mostly due
to increasing revenues from local taxes which increased by 60% from 2010 to 2014, and
now provides well over half of the City’s current revenues.
80.
City operating expenditures comprise: (i) Personnel Services (City employee
salaries, 44% of budget) and (ii) Maintenance and Other Operating Expenses (56%). 11% of
the expenditure budget goes to O&M for infrastructure and equipment, while the financing
cost or interest expense from outstanding loans account for 2-3% of total expenditures.
81.
Of capital spending, around 5% went to (i) roads, highways and bridges, (ii) irrigation,
canals and laterals and (iii) flood control facilities, while about 20% went to flood control
facilities. PhP 24 million worth of flood control infrastructure projects have been completed
and a further PhP 9.4 million is “Construction in progress”.
82.
In its 2009 Comprehensive Land Use Plan (CLUP), the City formulated a Ten-Year
Capital Investment Plan (2009-2018) totalling some PhP 7.5 billion. A large amount of
expenditures (about 5.6 billion) were planned in the social and economic sectors over the
ten years, chiefly for low income housing, health facilities, and sports facilities. A further 1.1
billion was earmarked for roads and transport improvements. Since 2009, however, total
capital expenditures have consistently remained well below planned capital investments, due
to “debt caution” which has kept actual borrowing well below the borrowing capacity that the
City has.
83.
Though the ten-year Capital Program from the CLUP has not been fully
implemented, it is indicative of what the City sees as its spending priorities. It does reflect a
P a g e | 15
considerable awareness of and attention to the social and economic issues that the City
faces.
84.
The City’s debt is constrained by its borrowing capacity, determined in the first
quarter of each year by the national Department of Finance (Bureau of Local Government
Finance). For the year 2014, borrowing capacity of up to PhP 1.5 billion was issued to the
City. Over the past five years, the City has accumulated a total of around PhP 1 billion in
debt from the Land Bank of the Philippines, in a large number of loans with an average term
of 10 years and with an interest rate of 4-5% per annum. The City remains in good financial
standing without a record of delinquent payments. Nevertheless, considering the expected
large capital requirement for flood protection works (in addition to large capital expenditures
for upgrading the sewer system in Valenzuela), it is unlikely that the flood protection project
could be substantially underwritten by new debt carried by the City.
85.
Project Context: 20 Flood-Prone Barangays - The proposed drainage and flood
control project in Valenzuela is focused on the 20 most flood-prone barangays of the City,
which are those in the lowlying region in the northwest (bordering Municipality of Obando
and incorporating the fishpond areas), an area in the middle City region in the vicinity of
Maysan Creek south of the Meycauayan River, and Marulas on the Tullahan River in the
south of the City.
86.
As a group, the 20 barangays are more impoverished than the other barangays in
Valenzuela City, with average household incomes well below the poverty line defined for
Metro Manila, as shown in the social survey presented elsewhere in this report. The poorest
of the 20 barangays are, not surprisingly, those in the lowest-lying areas (mainly in the
northwest group surrounding the fishponds).
87.
Within each barangay, not all housing, commercial, and industrial assets are equally
vulnerable to flooding; the analysis presented in this report is based upon flood maps
prepared by the TA which show inundation levels in each barangay from floods of various
severities, together with the assets (by sector) which are affected by these floods.
88.
Total assets at risk of significant flood damage in the 20 barangays as identified in
the flood maps exceed PhP 36 billion. About PhP 3.9 billion is expected as flood damage in
any year (before considering climate change effects which increase the damage estimates in
future years). The barangays of exceptional flood risk to the residential sector include
Malanday and Veinte Reales; to the commercial sector Dalandanan and Malanday; and to
industry Lingunan, Maysan, and Veinte Reales. Not surprisingly, the highest risks to
fishponds are in Balangkas, Coloong, Malanday, and Tagalag, which together contain most
of the fishpond zones.
89.
Economic Analysis - The expected damage (structural and social) that would be
inflicted in the vulnerable barangays by flood events without the project but would be at least
partially avoided by implementing the project, constitute the benefits of implementing the
project.
90.
With climate change, ambient temperatures will increase and the intensity of each
rainfall event in the City is expected to increase by 11.9% by 2050. To cope with these
impacts, the project design includes: (i) an increase in pumping capacity by 5.0 cubic meters
per second (cms), (ii) an increase in the size of drainage works by 12 percent, and (iii) an
increase in the land area to be acquired to accommodate the larger drainage works, in
comparison to the corresponding components that would be proposed in the absence of
climate change.
P a g e | 16
91.
Project costs are estimated at PhP 6.2 billion, comprising PhP 2.8 billion for internal
drainage works (including 1.1 billion for pumping upgrade of Wawang Pulo which is already
underway with national government financing), 1.1 billion for external flood protection, 0.7
billion for land acquisition, and 1.6 billion for construction supervision, design/engineering,
non-structural components (for disaster risk management), and a contingency allowance.
The project will be implemented with a 5-year construction period.
92.
Incremental O&M costs (i.e., additional O&M incurred by the project), comprising
maintenance of civil and structural works, maintenance of pumps, and electricity to operate
the pumps, is estimated at PhP 276 million per annum.
93.
The Economic Internal Rate of Return of the proposed project is 20.6%, well above
the 12% threshold usually applied to public works projects. The Economic Net Present Value
of the project over its 30-year life is estimated to be PhP 4.4 billion. The calculation table for
EIRR and ENPV is shown in Table 13 in the Annex.
94.
The project will deliver a reduction in the City’s vulnerability to floods, and in the long
term this will raise the confidence of residents and investors in the City as a place to invest in
higher value-added industries, a wider range of commercial services, better housing, and
better facilities for raising families. With a successful flood control project, the City will be
gradually uplifted economically, which will bring in its train better-paying jobs, rising incomes,
and rising returns to investment, both public and private. In parallel, the City will gradually
improve its revenue base and thus will strengthen its capacity to serve the City’s citizens,
both households and corporations.
95.
Sensitivity analysis indicates that the project economic indicators are ‘robust’ to
increase in cost or decreases in benefits: increasing the costs of, or reducing the benefits of
the project by 30% maintains the project EIRR well above 12% and the ENPV well above
zero.
96.
In comparing the benefit of avoiding the effects of climate change on flooding levels
to the additional project investment required, the net additional investment in climate change
adaptation results in an EIRR of 19.5% and an ENPV of PhP 239 million. The ‘robustness’ of
these results and their sensitivity to adverse changes in costs and benefits are found to be
similar to those of the project as a whole. The calculation of the EIRR and ENPV of the
climate change adaptation included in the project is shown in Table 6.2 in the Annex 8.
97.
Financing the Overall Project - Project funding currently sought from several
sources (grants, loans, and internal contributions) totals approximately PhP 5.1 billion. A
tentative plan to finance this amount is presented in the report, based on the following
tenets:
97.1. Valenzuela City (City) bears general responsibility for internal drainage
components (except for the pumping station at Veinte Reales (large) and the
West Boundary Road), and for land acquisition costs within the City
boundaries.
97.2. Current VOM expenditures for flood management do not overlap with those of
the proposed project.
97.3. The Wawang Pulo pumping upgrade component included in the project
economic costs is currently underway and funded by the national government
(PhP 1.1 billion), and is therefore not part of the project financing costs.
97.4. The World Bank has supported the development of the Master Plan for Flood
Management for Metro Manila. A long term loan is being prepared in 2015
totalling US$500 million ($300 m in World Bank loan funds and $200 m of
97.5.
P a g e | 17
counterpart funds from the national government) equivalent to about PhP 22
billion. There are promising indications that a large portion of the proposed
project in Valenzuela City may be eligible for funding under this loan.
Climate change adaptation (CCA) and non-structural components will be
supported by external grants, possibly the World Bank’s GFDRR as
discussed below.
98.
A tentative financing plan is presented as Table 3.10 in section 3.10. It provides for
PhP 3.4 billion to be secured from the above World Bank loan project for internal drainage
and external flood protection, an amount PhP 965 million to be secured as a grant for the
non-structural component (0.7 billion) and climate change adaptation (0.26 billion) from the
World Bank GFDRR fund, in addition to the 1.1 billion already financed by the national
government for the upgrade of pumping capacity at Wawang Pulo.
99.
Impact of the Project on the City Budget - The project will affect the City budget in
two main ways: (i) the City will be responsible for civil and structural works maintenance,
pumps maintenance, and purchase of electricity for operating the pumps as required, and (ii)
the City will inevitably need to shoulder a portion of land acquisition (and possible relocation)
costs prior to and during construction. Under the tentative financing plan proposed, land
acquisition costs are left unallocated, pending further discussions with the national
government and the World Bank.
100. Once the project is commissioned (as currently estimated, in 2023), incremental
O&M of the project is estimated at approximately PhP 276 m. Despite a prospect of steadily
improving City revenues, the additional O&M expenditure is likely to require some shifting of
budgetary priorities and allocations, particularly in view of the ambitious goals for the City
embodies in the 2009-2018 Comprehensive Land Use Plan (CLUP).
101. For finance of the project as a whole, financing a substantial portion, if not all, of the
project under a broad national-level flood management project with funds from the World
Bank would avoid the need for the City to contribute substantial sums to the investment from
either a loan or from internal funds, and would allow the City to concentrate its limited
resources on full support to the project’s operation and maintenance requirements.
iii.
G.
Investment Program Component
Integrated Flood Management Strategy
Program Rationale
102. The overall rational is to address recurring flood and drainage risks in Valenzuela
City through a holistic and coordinated approach involving both physical/structural and
non‐physical measures in the flood‐prone areas.
103. In order to identify physical interventions, the Consultant team reviewed the literature
and observed the field conditions, held discussions with the Valenzuela City government
officials, and listened to the concerns of the flooded communities. From these efforts, the
Consultant identified the following principles to determine the priorities for the Project for the
structural interventions:
104. Structural Interventions - The following principles were adopted to determine the
priorities for the Project:
P a g e | 18
104.1. Flood Protection-Priority No. 1
Flood waters must be prevented from overtopping the concrete flood
walls on the Meycauayan and Tullahan rivers for the 30 year return
period (RP) plus climate change scenario.
Overland flood waters from the Obando municipality (western
boundary of VC) must not be permitted to enter Valenzuela City from
the west as a result of design high tide plus climate change scenario.
104.2. Drainage Improvement-Priority No. 2
Flood waters inside Valenzuela City must be evacuated to a depth of
30 cm within 2 days from the 10 year RP plus climate change scenario
for all areas except Viente Reales where the criteria has been reduced
to evacuate the annual flood within a period of 7 days.
Internal drainage of Valenzuela City would be improved by providing
an enlarged and enclosed open channel drain and box culverts
through the center of Valenzuela City.
104.3. Improved Access-Priority No. 3
Access roads should be provided (i) for access by the community, (ii)
rapid responses during emergencies, (iii) additional flood protection,
and (iv) O&M. The road alignment for the west boundary road should
avoid causing relocation of families.
104.4. Improved O&M-Priority No. 4
O&M operations would improve due to the availability of stand-by
equipment and materials.
104.5. Improved Health and Well-being Priority No. 5
Health should significantly improve due to the construction of a new
sewerage treatment system and household connections and collector
network.
105. Non-Structural Interventions - For the non-structural interventions, the rationale is to
assess and to determine ways of strengthening the City Government’s ability and capacity to
effectively deal with disaster risk reduction and management within the jurisdiction of
Valenzuela. In order to determine the effectiveness of the City’s preparedness, response
and recovery measures for flood disaster risk management, the Team held discussions with
key staff from the offices of the City’s Disaster Risk Reduction, Rivers and Waterways
Management, the Social Welfare Development and other relevant personnel of the City to
understand and assess the current institutional setup, responsibilities and arrangements
including available resources (human, equipment, etc.). The findings indicate that
Valenzuela City Government has the ability to effectively manage disaster risk reduction
activities.
Construction, O&M, Disaster Preparedness, and Community Considerations
106. Flood Walls and Sluice Gate/Pumping Facilities. Because there are already many
existing drainage and flood protection facilities, the PFS has suggested retrofitting the
existing flood walls and installing an increased amount of pumping capacity in the sluice
gate/pumping facilities. For retrofitting and upgrading of the existing flood walls, a significant
portion of the concrete work could be done off-site. For existing rubble concrete walls,
grouting of the existing rubble concrete wall with high strength grout that is pressure pumped
through borings in the wall. Pre-cast flood wall sections could be added incrementally, say at
50 cm increments, using steel dowels and high strength epoxy grout.
P a g e | 19
107. In order to expedite construction and to allow additional pumping units to be installed
at a later date, the PFS suggests fabrication of modular pumping units off-site rather than
cast in-situ. The modular units could be fabricated for various sizes of pumps ranging in
capacity from 0.5-1.0 cubic meter/sec (cm/s) per unit. Off-site fabrication would allow for
better quality control. The modular units could be transported to the sites by barge, or truck,
and then lifted into place by crane. The modular units would be attached to the completed
concrete platform with re-bar and other connectors.
108. O&M Roads and Disaster Preparedness. An O&M road is constructed along the
entire flood wall along the northern border of Valenzuela City from the (southern – left bank
of Meycauyan River) Market Bridge to Marcos Bridge.
109. Internal Drainage - Improvements for internal drainage. The PFS includes seven of
the most severe problem areas in the city and upgrade 6 existing pumping/sluice gate
facilities and one new pumping facility at Vientes Reales, It also recommends construction of
an 8 km west boundary road.
H.
Concept Designs and Cost Estimates of Preferred Option
Technical Design Criteria For Flood Protection and Drainage Improvement
110. The DPWH design criteria was adopted and adjusted for climate change predictions.
111. Flood water surface elevations in the Meycauayan River and Tullahan River were
estimated for the 30 year return period (RP) event plus climate change predictions of 11.9%
increase in rainfall depth for a 2 day event. Downstream elevation at Manila Bay was
considered to be at design high tide plus 24 cm increase due to climate change predictions.
112. For the internal catchment basins and drainage channels and pumping requirements,
the 10 year RP was used and adjusted upward by 11.9% increase in rainfall depth as a
result of climate change predictions over a 2 day event.
Proposed Contract Packages
113. The proposed contract packages for internal drainage and external flood protection
are shown in the following tables and in the implementation plan. The total estimated cost for
drainage improvement and flood protection is $68.30 million USD without land acquisition
and engineering costs. The proposed contract packages are shown in Figure ES-3.1, Table
ES-3.1 and Figure ES-3.2, and Table ES-3.2.
Figure ES-3.1: Proposed Internal Drainage Improvement Packages
P a g e | 20
P a g e | 21
Table ES-3.1: Proposed Internal Drainage Improvement Packages Cost Estimate 1
The drainage improvement for the sewerage treatment system is critical for Val City but will have no direct impact on improving
flood or drainage and has not been included in the economic analysis of the PFS as cost and benefits are impossible to
ascertain and to separate from this project. However, $5 million has been provided in order for field surveys, household
connections, and initial installation costs. This intervention would be have the opportunity for cost recovery and could
beconsidered under a PPP. It is very important for the city and details would be obtained during the FS.
Figure ES-3.2: Proposed External Flood Protection Packages
P a g e | 22
Table ES-3.2: Proposed External Flood Protection Packages Cost Estimate2
2
ColoongTagalag, ColoongPangkera, Packweld, Santulan, Don Pedro
P a g e | 23
P a g e | 24
I.
Operations and Maintenance of the Flood and Drainage Facilities
114. The proposed drainage improvement and flood protection project is expected to
substantially increase the human and financial demands of the city’s Flood Control Division.
O&M costs will substantially increase because (i) all of the sluice gate/pumping facilities will
be demolished and upgraded with new equipment including additional installed pumping
capacity, (ii) new O&M roads will be constructed including the western boundary barrier
road, and (iii) improvements to the internal drainage system including a portion of the
sewerage system. The estimated cost for O&M is about $8.30 million/year.
iv.
J.
Program Feasibility And Safeguards
Economic and Financial Evaluation
Financial Status of the City of Valenzuela Local Government
115.
City revenues comprise: (i) local taxes imposed on real properties, business
operations, and residents; (ii) an Internal Revenue Allotment (IRA) representing the City’s
share of total national taxes collected, and (iii) other revenues, from other city services and
income generating city assets. For the last five years, the revenue growth rate averaged 8%
per annum mostly due to increasing revenues from local taxes which increased by 60% from
2010 to 2014, and now provides well over half of the City’s current revenues.
116. City operating expenditures comprise: (i) Personnel Services (City employee
salaries, 44% of budget) and (ii) Maintenance and Other Operating Expenses (56%). 11% of
the expenditure budget goes to O&M for infrastructure and equipment, while the financing
cost or interest expense from outstanding loans account for 2-3% of total expenditures.
117. Of capital spending, around 5% went to (i) roads, highways and bridges, (ii) irrigation,
canals and laterals and (iii) flood control facilities, while about 20% went to flood control
facilities. PhP 24 million worth of flood control infrastructure projects have been completed
and a further PhP 9.4 million is “Construction in progress”.
118. In its 2009 Comprehensive Land Use Plan (CLUP), the City formulated a Ten-Year
Capital Investment Plan (2009-2018) totalling some PhP 7.5 billion. A large amount of
expenditures (about 5.6 billion) were planned in the social and economic sectors over the
ten years, chiefly for low income housing, health facilities, and sports facilities. A further 1.1
billion was earmarked for roads and transport improvements. Since 2009, however, total
capital expenditures have consistently remained well below planned capital investments, due
to “debt caution” which has kept actual borrowing well below the borrowing capacity that the
City has.
119. Though the ten-year Capital Program from the CLUP has not been fully
implemented, it is indicative of what the City sees as its spending priorities. It does reflect a
considerable awareness of and attention to the social and economic issues that the City
faces.
120. The City’s debt is constrained by its borrowing capacity, determined in the first
quarter of each year by the national Department of Finance (Bureau of Local Government
Finance). For the year 2014, borrowing capacity of up to PhP 1.5 billion was issued to the
City. Over the past five years, the City has accumulated a total of around PhP 1 billion in
debt from the Land Bank of the Philippines, in a large number of loans with an average term
of 10 years and with an interest rate of 4-5% per annum. The City remains in good financial
standing without a record of delinquent payments. Nevertheless, considering the expected
large capital requirement for flood protection works (in addition to large capital expenditures
P a g e | 25
for upgrading the sewer system in Valenzuela), it is unlikely that the flood protection project
could be substantially underwritten by new debt carried by the City.
Project Context: 20 Flood-Prone Barangays
121.
The proposed drainage and flood control project in Valenzuela is focused on the 20
most flood-prone barangays of the City, which are those in the lowlying region in the
northwest (bordering Municipality of Obando and incorporating the fishpond areas), an area
in the middle City region in the vicinity of Maysan Creek south of the Meycauayan River, and
Marulas on the Tullahan River in the south of the City.
122. As a group, the 20 barangays are more impoverished than the other barangays in
Valenzuela City, with average household incomes well below the poverty line defined for
Metro Manila, as shown in the social survey presented elsewhere in this report. The poorest
of the 20 barangays are, not surprisingly, those in the lowest-lying areas (mainly in the
northwest group surrounding the fishponds).
123. Within each barangay, not all housing, commercial, and industrial assets are equally
vulnerable to flooding; the analysis presented in this report is based upon flood maps
prepared by the TA which show inundation levels in each barangay from floods of various
severities, together with the assets (by sector) which are affected by these floods.
124. Total assets at risk of significant flood damage in the 20 barangays as identified in
the flood maps exceed PhP 36 billion. About PhP 3.9 billion is expected as flood damage in
any year (before considering climate change effects which increase the damage estimates in
future years). The barangays of exceptional flood risk to the residential sector include
Malanday and Veinte Reales; to the commercial sector Dalandanan and Malanday; and to
industry Lingunan, Maysan, and Veinte Reales. Not surprisingly, the highest risks to
fishponds are in Balangkas, Coloong, Malanday, and Tagalag, which together contain most
of the fishpond zones.
Economic Analysis
125. The expected damage (structural and social) that would be inflicted in the vulnerable
barangays by flood events without the project but would be at least partially avoided by
implementing the project, constitute the benefits of implementing the project.
126. With climate change, ambient temperatures will increase and the intensity of each
rainfall event in the City is expected to increase by 11.9% by 2050. To cope with these
impacts, the project design includes: (i) an increase in pumping capacity by 5.0 cubic meters
per second (cms), (ii) an increase in the size of drainage works by 12 percent, and (iii) an
increase in the land area to be acquired to accommodate the larger drainage works, in
comparison to the corresponding components that would be proposed in the absence of
climate change.
127. Project costs are estimated at PhP 6.2 billion, comprising PhP 2.8 billion for internal
drainage works (including 1.1 billion for pumping upgrade of Wawang Pulo which is already
underway with national government financing), 1.1 billion for external flood protection, 0.7
billion for land acquisition, and 1.6 billion for construction supervision, design/engineering,
non-structural components (for disaster risk management), and a contingency allowance.
The project will be implemented with a 5-year construction period.
128. Incremental O&M costs (i.e., additional O&M incurred by the project), comprising
maintenance of civil and structural works, maintenance of pumps, and electricity to operate
the pumps, is estimated at PhP 276 million per annum
P a g e | 26
129. The Economic Internal Rate of Return of the proposed project is 20.6%, well above
the 12% threshold usually applied to public works projects. The Economic Net Present Value
of the project over its 30-year life is estimated to be PhP 4.4 billion. The calculation table for
EIRR and ENPV is shown in Table 13 in the Annex.
130. The project will deliver a reduction in the City’s vulnerability to floods, and in the long
term this will raise the confidence of residents and investors in the City as a place to invest in
higher value-added industries, a wider range of commercial services, better housing, and
better facilities for raising families. With a successful flood control project, the City will be
gradually uplifted economically, which will bring in its train better-paying jobs, rising incomes,
and rising returns to investment, both public and private. In parallel, the City will gradually
improve its revenue base and thus will strengthen its capacity to serve the City’s citizens,
both households and corporations.
131. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the project economic indicators are ‘robust’ to
increase in cost or decreases in benefits: increasing the costs of, or reducing the benefits of
the project by 30% maintains the project EIRR well above 12% and the ENPV well above
zero.
132. In comparing the benefit of avoiding the effects of climate change on flooding levels
to the additional project investment required, the net additional investment in climate change
adaptation results in an EIRR of 19.5% and an ENPV of PhP 239 million. The ‘robustness’ of
these results and their sensitivity to adverse changes in costs and benefits are found to be
similar to those of the project as a whole. The calculation of the EIRR and ENPV of the
climate change adaptation included in the project is shown in Table 16 in the Annex.
Financing the Overall Project
133. Project funding currently sought from several sources (grants, loans, and internal
contributions) totals approximately PhP 5.1 billion. A tentative plan to finance this amount is
presented in the report, based on the following tenets:
133.1. Valenzuela City (City) bears general responsibility for internal drainage
components (except for the pumping station at Veinte Reales (large) and the
West Boundary Road), and for land acquisition costs within the City
boundaries.
133.2. Current VOM expenditures for flood management do not overlap with those of
the proposed project.
133.3. The Wawang Pulo pumping upgrade component included in the project
economic costs is currently underway and funded by the national government
(PhP 1.1 billion), and is therefore not part of the project financing costs.
133.4. The World Bank has supported the development of the Master Plan for Flood
Management for Metro Manila. A long term loan is being prepared in 2015
totalling US$500 million ($300 m in World Bank loan funds and $200 m of
counterpart funds from the national government) equivalent to about PhP 22
billion. There are promising indications that a large portion of the proposed
project in Valenzuela City may be eligible for funding under this loan.
133.5. Climate change adaptation (CCA) and non-structural components will be
supported by external grants, possibly the World Bank’s GFDRR as
discussed below.
134. A tentative financing plan is presented as Table 3.10 in section 3.10. It provides for
PhP 3.4 billion to be secured from the above World Bank loan project for internal drainage
and external flood protection, an amount PhP 965 million to be secured as a grant for the
non-structural component (0.7 billion) and climate change adaptation (0.26 billion) from the
P a g e | 27
World Bank GFDRR fund, in addition to the 1.1 billion already financed by the national
government for the upgrade of pumping capacity at Wawang Pulo.
Impact of the Project on the City Budget
135. The project will affect the City budget in two main ways: (i) the City will be
responsible for civil and structural works maintenance, pumps maintenance, and purchase of
electricity for operating the pumps as required, and (ii) the City will inevitably need to
shoulder a portion of land acquisition (and possible relocation) costs prior to and during
construction. Under the tentative financing plan proposed, land acquisition costs are left
unallocated, pending further discussions with the national government and the World Bank.
136. Once the project is commissioned (as currently estimated, in 2023), incremental
O&M of the project is estimated at approximately PhP 276 m. Despite a prospect of steadily
improving City revenues, the additional O&M expenditure is likely to require some shifting of
budgetary priorities and allocations, particularly in view of the ambitious goals for the City
embodies in the 2009-2018 Comprehensive Land Use Plan (CLUP).
137. For finance of the project as a whole, financing a substantial portion, if not all, of the
project under a broad national-level flood management project with funds from the World
Bank would avoid the need for the City to contribute substantial sums to the investment from
either a loan or from internal funds, and would allow the City to concentrate its limited
resources on full support to the project’s operation and maintenance requirements.
K.
Environmental Due Diligence
Environmental Screening for Protected Areas and Cultural Properties
138. There are no reported critical biodiversity areas in the City. However, there is a
potential area for conservation in Villa Encarnacion in Barangay Malanday. Attractions are
mangroves, water lilies and migratory birds. There was a memorandum of agreement signed
by the City Government and the lot owner in the past to ensure that no further land
development will be done or implemented in the area. The CENRO has yet to develop a
conservation plan for this.
139. Eight cultural landmarks are promoted and managed by the City Cultural and
Tourism Office. The residence of Dr. Pio Valenzuela is a valuable part of the City’s heritage.
Any infrastructure development, such as excavation, pipe laying and dike construction, that
may have impacts on these landmarks should obtain clearance first from the appropriate
local and national government agencies.
140. On the other hand, the improvement of drainage and flood control in the City will
further protect the City’s landmark as most of these are situated in the flood-prone areas.
The conditions of a number of these cultural properties have deteriorated over the years due
to flooding such as the ancestral residence of Dr. Pio Valenzuela.
Initial Environmental Examination
141. Considering the potential subprojects and the assessment of the existing
environmental conditions, ADB policies on environmental assessment and involuntary
resettlement may need to be considered. Based on the initial risk category rating, the flood
control projects in Valenzuela City may be categorized as Category B projects. These are
projects, which have likely environmental impacts that are generally site specific, only few
are irreversible and in most cases are easily mitigated. However, the specific safeguard
instruments will only be determined after the details and components of the flood control
measures have been completely identified. The ADB risk rating may be reviewed and, if
necessary, revised during the feasibility study. The risk rating should consider the number of
P a g e | 28
households that will be displaced or relocated with the implementation of the subproject
based on the final designs (i.e., if final alignment of the west boundary O&M road will
relocate considerable number of persons, the project may be upgraded to Category A). For
this PFS, an initial environmental examination was developed. The IEE identified the
potential environmental and social impacts of the subprojects considering the existing
environmental conditions including the vulnerability of the area to climate change. A detailed
environmental management plan is proposed.
L.
Social Assessment and Due Diligence
Social Impacts Mitigation Plan
142.
A Social Impact Mitigation Plan was prepared to address the adverse social impacts
and risks of the proposed structural and non-structural interventions. The mitigating
measures cover the key social issues per phase or stage of the program from feasibility
study or detailed engineering design to operations and maintenance (O&M) phases. Among
the key measures that the City Government need to implement include (a) preparation of a
Land Acquisition and Resettlement Plan (LARP), (b) ensure regular stakeholder
consultations, and (c) continuing capacity building and training activities on disaster risk
mitigation and response.
143. The potential social impacts and risks of the proposed structural interventions of the
program are:
143.1. Partial or full loss of assets due to right of way requirements. Partial or
full loss of assets such as portions of private residential lands, structures, and
income from business establishments is anticipated. The expansion of the
existing drainage canals and culverts with an additional 3 meters at each
side, and the construction of the western boundary O&M road traversing 8
kilometers, will affect a number of residential, commercial and industrial
properties. The retrofitting of the river dike in Wawang Pulo side along
Meycauayan River will also potentially affect a number of informal settler
families with housing structures closely built on the existing river dike. The
initial count of the affected structures under the External Flood Protection and
Internal Drainage Packages are listed in Table 4.1. The initial estimates
needed for land acquisition was pegged at PhP 180 million (excluding cost of
affected structures).
143.2. Acceptability of the adjacent towns of Obando and Meycauyan in Bulacan,
Malabon and Quezon City in Metro Manila. The construction of flood
protection structures within Valenzuela will inevitably affect, in varying levels,
the drainage systems of the nearby towns and cities. While there is an
objective to protect the City from recurring floods and manage its drainage
systems, it can be possible that in the nearby towns or cities will be adversely
affected in the long run. It is necessary as part of the overall flood risk
program of the city, to closely coordinate and consult the proposed
infrastructure projects for with other cities or towns prior to implementation.
P a g e | 29
Table ES-4.1: Initial Estimate of Number of Structures that will be Possibly Affected by the
Proposed Sub-projects
Notes: (a) Direct impact zones are the areas identified through Google map and ocular inspection, which may be directly
affected by the implementation of the project. The structures estimated within the direct impact zones will experience the
direct impact of the project activities such as floodwall retrofitting, O&M road construction, or right-of-way acquisition for
easement expansion. At this level of the study, it cannot be ascertained if these structures will be relocated (partial or full)
or not. (b) This estimate assumed that existing road alignment will be used and the existing road will only be improved.
The number will increase if new alignment will be proposed.
Source: Annex 7. Initial Environmental Examination (IEE) Report
143.3. Traffic congestion during construction. The construction works, especially
the widening of existing drainage channels and box culverts and improvement
of internal drains to support the sewerage project of Maynilad, would
potentially result to heavy traffic. The City is already experiencing heavy traffic
regularly, and this may worsen during actual construction. A Traffic
Management Plan is recommended to be prepared at the detailed feasibility
stage when the exact location and scope of the construction works will be
identified.
143.4. Potential encroachment of informal settlers near the new flood
protection structures. With the understanding that the new flood protection
structures will minimize flooding in the target areas, there is a possibility of
encroachment by informal settler families (ISFs). The City Government should
continue its program of regularly monitoring encroachment of ISFs in danger
zones and near flood protection structures, and relocate the ISFs to the City’s
designated resettlement area such as that in Disiplina Village in Barangay
Bignay.
M.
Land Acquisition and Relocation Framework
144.
Among the key measures that the City Government need to implement are the
following:
144.1. Preparation of a Land Acquisition and Relocation Plan (LARP). The initial
assessment of about 450 structures within the direct impact zone would
require a preparation of a land acquisition and relocation plan (LARP). The
key objectives of the LARP should the include the safeguards set forth in
related national government policies, such as the Republic Act 89743,
Republic Act No. 72794, Republic Act 7835 (1994)5, Executive Order 1035,
P a g e | 30
series 19856, and ADB Policy on Involuntary Resettlement. Among the key
LARP objectives should include (a) avoid involuntary resettlement wherever
possible; (b) minimize involuntary resettlement by exploring project and
design alternatives; (c) ensure that the affected people affected are fully
informed and consulted on resettlement and compensation options; (d)
enhance, or at least restore, the livelihoods of all displaced persons in real
terms relative to pre-project levels; and (e) improve the standards of living of
the displaced poor and other vulnerable groups.
144.2. Ensure regular stakeholder consultations. Much of the consultative
activities will include meetings with the barangay officials, residents, affected
persons, other LGUs, representatives from NGOs, business organizations,
national government agencies, and service providers. The engagement of the
key stakeholders should be retained not only during the project preparation or
planning, but throughout the implementation and monitoring of the program,
to ensure that issues and risks are identified and measures to address these
done in collaboration and with the stakeholders. Conflicts and grievances
especially from the adversely affected stakeholders will also be avoided or
minimized if close consultation are ensured.
144.3. Continuing capacity building and training activities on disaster risk
mitigation and response. Strengthening the technical capacity, especially of
the technical staff of the City LGU and barangay officials, through seminars
and training, is necessary to ensure that the planned programs on flood risk
mitigation (nonstructural interventions), land acquisition and resettlement, and
environmental impact mitigation, are properly and carefully implemented.
v.
N.
Program Implementation
Implementation Arrangements
145.
It is anticipated that the main agencies involved in implementing the project will
include:
145.1. Valenzuela City Local Government
145.2. Department of Public Works and Housing
145.3. Department of Environment and Natural Resources
3456
146. Valenzuela City Government: There will be a need to establish a central Project
Management Unit within the City Government tasked with the responsibility for coordinating
the various implementing agencies and also the execution of the structural and nonstructural interventions.
147. The Department of Public Works and Housing: It is expected DPWH will play a
major role in the construction activities.
3
Republic Act 8974 or An Act to Facilitate the Acquisition of Right-Of-Way (ROW), Site or Location for National Government
Infrastructure Projects, November 2000.
4
Republic Act No. 7279 or the Urban Development and Housing Act of 1992 which sets the grounds, proceedings and
requirements for eviction of illegal settlers from lands to be acquired for infrastructure projects.
5
Republic 7835 describes the National Shelter Program Implementation/ Resettlement Program. The National Housing
Authority shall acquire land and develop it to generate serviced home lots for families displaced from sites earmarked for
government infrastructure projects, those occupying danger areas such as waterways, railroad tracks and those qualified for
relocation and resettlement under RA 7279.
6
Executive Order 1035, series 1985 describes the procedures and guidelines for the expeditious acquisition by the
Government of private real properties or rights thereon for Infrastructure and other government development projects.
P a g e | 31
148. The Department of Environment and Natural Resources: DENR will ensure that
the necessary environmental safeguards for the project are met.
149. A project steering committee need to be created to provide policy guidance and
overall coordination for project implementation.
150. The Barangay Councils are expected to be involved. The barangays will ensure that
project is integrated into the barangay development plans and assist the City with
implementation of the works.
151. The Project Implementation Consultants will provide the necessary technical support
to the City Government.
O.
Tentative Implementation Plan
152.
The implementation plan for the proposed physical intervention packages is shown
on Figure ES-5.1. The project covers a 2-yr pre-construction phase including any
preparatory activities and a 5-yr period for the construction phase.
vi.
Program Risks and Risk Mitigation
153. The anticipated risks will be those relating to the failure to implement the Project and
hence to achieve the project objectives. The potential risks and measures to minimise these
risks are discussed below.
P.
Potential Risks
154.
The perceived potential risks will include:
154.1. Reluctance on the part of the City to implement the project.
154.2. Lack of interest by potential donors to finance the project.
154.3. City not being able to raise the required amount of counterpart funds.
154.4. Lack of interest from the National Government.
154.5. Issues with land acquisition, relocation and right-of-way for construction.
154.6. Adverse impact on livelihood of affected persons if appropriate safeguards
are not applied.
154.7. Public opposition to implement the project.
154.8. Lack of cooperation from the neighbouring municipalities of Obando and
Meycuayan during the implementation of the flood protection works.
154.9. Inadequate capacity by the City DRRMO to implement the non-structural
measures component.
154.10. Delays in tendering the works and also delays by contractors in executing
the works.
Q.
Risk Mitigation
155.
In order to mitigate above risks:
155.1. The City Government is keen for the project to go ahead as demonstrated to
the Consulting Team during the Study. However, this is highly dependent on
the City obtaining funds from external sources. In this regard, CDIA will be
assisting the City in applying for financing from the various sources identified
by the PFS.
155.2. Some international donor agencies have shown interest in funding the
Project. This need to be pursued.
Figure ES-5.1: Project Implementation Plan
P a g e | 32
P a g e | 33
155.3. Discussions with DPWH officers (National Government level) indicate that
they are willing to get involved in this project and will consider including some
of the potential interventions on their annual works programs.
155.4. Outcome of the social survey showed that the affected residents in favour of
the project and as such it is not expected that there would be any major public
opposition to the project. However, it is very necessary for the City to seek
cooperation from Obando and Meycuayan Municipalities before implementing
the flood protection works along the respective jurisdiction boundaries.
155.5. City to ensure that the appropriate social and environmental safeguards are
strictly implemented in accordance with existing policies and legislation.
155.6. The City should start making plans as early as possible (during the Feasibility
Study stage) to start acquiring land and right-of-way for the construction
works.
155.7. The City’s DRRMO staff and barangay officials would require further training
in the area of disaster risk reduction and management.
155.8. The Design Monitoring Framework developed provides a general guide to
monitoring of the Project. Delays in the tendering process and by contractors
can be minimised through proper project management strategies and
procedures.
vii.
Design Monitoring Framework
156. The Design and Monitoring Framework (DMF) developed for the overall project is
shown in Table ES-7.1.
viii.
Conclusions and Recommendations
157. The Pre-Feasibility Study for the “Integrated Flood Risk Management for the City of
Valenzuela” has been prepared based on data/information made available to the Consulting
Team, prevailing field conditions, technical, environmental and socio-economic assessments
made, discussions and consultations held with various stakeholders and feedback obtained
as a result.
158. The level of details and analyses provided in the report is consistent with details
expected of a Pre-Feasibility Study and it is also within the constraints of the data provided.
159. From the technical, social, environmental, economic and financial investigations
carried out during the studies, the outcomes indicated that the Project is feasible and should
be pursued.
160. As contained in the report, potential financing sources have been identified and these
need to be followed further with the assistance of CDIA/Adapt-Asia.
161. In view of the above, it is recommended that a full Feasibility Study and Detailed
Engineering Design for the formulated packages be carried as the next step which will then
lead on to the implementation of the structural and nonstructural measures to address the
recurring flood and drainage problems of Valenzuela City.
162. The Project has been planned over a 7-year period, 2 years for the preconstruction
phase and 5 years for the construction and implementation of the non-structural measures.
Table ES-7.1: Design Monitoring Framework
P a g e | 34
P a g e | 35
P a g e | 36

Pre-Feasibility Study Integrated Flood Risk Management for the City

Transcription

Similar documents

What you have told us

Floodwatch®

p - Garden Commerical Properties

Are Risk MAP Products Really on Our Mind?

excess flood faq