Hurricane Evacuation for the Houston-Galveston Area

Hurricane Evacuation
for the Houston-Galveston Area
Presented by
William E. King
www.weking.net
Mississippi Coast after Katrina
Mississippi Coast after Katrina
Mississippi Coast after Katrina
Mississippi Coast after Katrina
Hurricane Carla
September 5-11, 1961
A large, slow-moving storm that made landfall near Port Lavaca
Sustained winds of 150 mph (Category 4) – Gusts to 175mph
Maximum storm surge of 22 feet (Matagorda Bay)
14.8 feet (Houston Ship Channel)
Maximum rainfall recorded - 16.49 inches (Galveston)
34 Deaths in Texas
Dickinson
Texas City
Galveston
Houston-Galveston
Study Area
Mean Sea Level
Dickinson
Texas City
Galveston
Hurricane Carly
9/11 at 0100 CDT
MEOW NW at 8 MPH
Surge: 4.5 Feet
Dickinson
Texas City
Galveston
Hurricane Carly
9/11 at 0500 CDT
MEOW NW at 8 MPH
Surge: 8.5 Feet
Dickinson
Texas City
Galveston
Hurricane Carly
9/11 at 1000 CDT
MEOW NW at 8 MPH
Surge: 12.8 Feet
Dickinson
Texas City
Galveston
Hurricane Carly
9/11 at 1500 CDT
MEOW NW at 8 MPH
Surge: 15.8 Feet
Dickinson
Texas City
Galveston
Hurricane Carly
Category 5
MEOW NW at 8 MPH
Surge: 19.0 Feet
Baytown
HOUSTON
La Porte
League
City
Alvin
Texas
City
Houston-Galveston
Study Area
Mean Sea Level
Galveston
Baytown
HOUSTON
La Porte
League
City
Alvin
Texas
City
Hurricane Carly
9/11 at 0100 CDT
MEOW NW at 8 MPH
Surge: 4.8 Feet
Galveston
Baytown
HOUSTON
La Porte
League
City
Alvin
Texas
City
Hurricane Carly
9/11 at 0500 CDT
MEOW NW at 8 MPH
Surge: 10.6 Feet
Galveston
Baytown
HOUSTON
La Porte
League
City
Alvin
Texas
City
Hurricane Carly
9/11 at 1000 CDT
MEOW NW at 8 MPH
Surge: 17.9 Feet
Galveston
Baytown
HOUSTON
La Porte
League
City
Alvin
Texas
City
Hurricane Carly
9/11 at 1500 CDT
MEOW NW at 8 MPH
Surge: 22.4 Feet
Galveston
HOUSTON
Pasadena
Deer Park
Webster
La Porte
Baytown
Bacliff
Houston-Galveston
Study Area
Mean Sea Level
HOUSTON
Pasadena
Deer Park
Webster
La Porte
Baytown
Bacliff
Hurricane Carly
9/11 at 0100 CDT
MEOW NW at 8 MPH
Surge: 4.8 Feet
HOUSTON
Pasadena
Deer Park
Webster
La Porte
Baytown
Bacliff
Hurricane Carly
9/11 at 0500 CDT
MEOW NW at 8 MPH
Surge: 10.6 Feet
HOUSTON
Pasadena
Deer Park
Webster
La Porte
Baytown
Bacliff
Hurricane Carly
9/11 at 1000 CDT
MEOW NW at 8 MPH
Surge: 17.9 Feet
HOUSTON
Pasadena
Deer Park
Webster
La Porte
Baytown
Bacliff
Hurricane Carly
9/11 at 1500 CDT
MEOW NW at 8 MPH
Surge: 22.4 Feet
Hurricane Katrina
August 26, 2005 (Friday) – 1PM
Category 2 (100 mph)
Hurricane Katrina
August 26, 2005 (Friday) – 11PM
Category 2 (105 mph)
Hurricane Katrina
August 27, 2005 (Saturday) – 10AM
Category 3 (115 mph)
Hurricane Katrina
August 27, 2005 (Saturday) – 10PM
Category 3 (115 mph) – 7mph
Hurricane Katrina
August 28, 2005 (Sunday) – 7AM
Category 5 (165 mph) – 12mph
Hurricane Katrina
August 28, 2005 (Sunday) – 10AM
Category 5 (165 mph) – New Orleans calls evacuation
Hurricane Katrina
August 28, 2005 (Sunday) – 6PM
Category 5 (165 mph)
Tropical Force Winds hit New Orleans less than 8 hours after evacuation called
Hurricane Tracks 1851-2005
Hurricanes since 1900
Within 120 NM of Houston
Comparison of CAT 3-5 Storms
1985-1994
1995-2004
http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/Hurricanemaps/Galveston
StudyAreaMap.pdf
Harris County Surge Zones
EVACUATION STATISTICS FOR
CATEGORY 4-5 HURRICANE
Total Population of
Affected Area
Number of Persons who
MUST Evacuate
Number of Person who
PROBABLY Evacuate
Number of vehicles
involved in evacuation
4,000,000
800,000-1,000,000
?????
Say 2,000,000
500,000-1,000,000
http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/Hurricanemaps/Galveston
StudyAreaMap.pdf
Major Evacuation Choke Points
# of Lanes
SH59
SH290
I-45
I-10
2
1
2
2
Total
7
Basic Evacuation Math
Est. Evacuation Population
Est. Evacuation Vehicles
Vehicles per Lane per hour
1.5 MM
750,000
2,000
Total Vehicles per hours
Time to clear evacuation
vehicles
14,000
53 hours
Task Forces’ Major Recommendations
•
Command and Control
–
–
•
Fueling
–
–
•
Utilize industry infrastructure
Fuel Desk at State EOC
Special Needs
–
–
–
•
Unified regional approach
Planning at COGs
Definition – “Anyone who cannot evacuation themselves.”
Statewide database, web based, maintained locally
State responsibility to develop sheltering plan
Traffic Management
–
–
–
Incident management
Aid stations
Traffic Management Plan
Traffic Plan?
• Directed Evacuation
• Contraflow
• DEM Website
http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/dem
Elements of a PERSONAL Evacuation Plan
• Know when/if you need to evacuate
– What is your risk?
• Are you in the storm surge zone (which category)?
• Does wind pose a risk to your home? At what level?
• Are you susceptible to upland flooding? 100-year flood plain
100yr Rainfall
Possible peak gusts from a cat 4
on worst case track for Rita
Elements of a PERSONAL Evacuation Plan
• Know when/if you need to evacuate
– Other factors
•
•
•
•
No utilities
Special medical needs
Convenience evacuation
Consider after storm evacuation
Forecast Uncertainty
Rita 24 hours before landfall
Elements of a PERSONAL Evacuation Plan
• Know where you are going to go
– Friends or relatives are best
– Farther is better; west is better
– Hotels will be booked for hundreds of miles inland
– Shelters
– www.OneStorm.org – Personal evacuation plan
Elements of a PERSONAL Evacuation Plan
• Familiarize yourself with latest traffic management plan
• http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/pages/index.htm
Elements of a PERSONAL Evacuation Plan
• Know what you are going to take with you and where it is
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Computer hard drives
Photographs, keepsakes
Records (birth certificates, marriage licenses, SS card)
Financial records
Prescriptions (keep extra refill on hand)
Insurance policies
Medical records
Cash (ATM on national institution)
Elements of a PERSONAL Evacuation Plan
• Know how to get hold of everyone going with you
• Know what you are going to do with pets
• Get weather update at each new advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Elements of a PERSONAL Evacuation Plan
• Be Prepared for a long time in your vehicle
–
–
–
–
–
Plenty of water & food
Cooler with ice (freeze packs)
Pets’ needs
Medicines
Detailed Map (Computer with mapping program, DC
adapter)
– Cell phone (extra battery)
• Make sure your vehicle is prepared for trip
– Keep gas tank topped off
– Oil, coolant levels, fan belts, brakes
Rita on Thursday at 1AM
CAT 5 – 175mph – 28 ft Surge
We Cannot Allow This to Happen Here
We Cannot Allow This to Happen Here . . . Again
137 Evacuation Deaths
“I watched my mother die
in the rear view mirror”
www.weking.net