Estimated Urban Runoff Copper Reductions Resulting

Transcription

EstimatedUrbanRunoﬀ
CopperReductionsResulting
fromBrakePadCopper
Restrictions
CaliforniaStormwaterQualityAssociation
April13,2016
Preface
ThisreportwaspreparedfortheCaliforniaStormwaterQualityAssociation
(CASQA)underthesupervisionofCASQA’sWatershedManagement&Impaired
WatersSubcommittee.Thereportisanupdateandexpansionofa2013
memorandumpreparedforRichardWatson&AssociateswithfundingfromtheLos
CerritosChannelWatershedGroup(Moran2013).Thisreportisacomponentof
CASQA’sSourceControlInitiative,whichseekstoaddressstormwaterandurban
runoffpollutantsattheirsources.Thisreportwascommissionedtodevelop
scientificestimatesofcopperloadreductionsduetovehiclebrakepadcopper
contentreductionmandatestoinformdecision-makingbyCASQA,stormwater
permittees,andwaterqualityregulatorsrelatedtomanagementofcopperasa
waterpollutant.
Thisreportdocumentsscientificresearch.Itreliesoninformationfromthe
scientificliterature,vehicleindustry,andgovernmentagencies.Becauseofthe
uncertaintiesinherentinresearchworkandtherelianceonscientificstudies
conductedbyandinformationprovidedbyotherorganizations,neitherCASQA,its
BoardofDirectors,theWatershedSubcommittee,anycontributors,northeauthors
makeanywarranty,expressedorimplied,norassumeanylegalliabilityor
responsibilityforanythirdparty'suseofthisreportortheconsequencesofuseof
anyinformation,product,orprocessdescribedinthisreport.Mentionoftrade
namesorcommercialproducts,organizations,orsuppliersdoesnotconstitutean
actualorimpliedendorsementorrecommendationfororagainstuse,orwarranty.
NotetoReaders
WhilethisreporthasbeenpreparedprimarilyforCASQAmembersandothersin
California,ittakesagenericapproachtoestimatingurbanrunoffcopperreductions
duetoNorthAmerica-widechangestriggeredbyCaliforniaandWashingtonState
laws.AlthoughtheestimatesuseafewCalifornia-specificdatasets(e.g.,vehicle
fleetmixdata),mostoftheinputinformationisgeneric,withtheintentofproviding
informationusefulinanyhighlyurbanized,highlyimperviousNorthAmerican
watershed(withconsiderationoflocalcharacteristics).Thereportreliesheavilyon
datafromtwosources:(1)theCalifornia-foundedBrakePadPartnership,an
internationalpartnershipthatusedSanFranciscoBayasitscasestudyexample,and
(2)theWashingtonDepartmentofEcology,whichistheonlyorganizationthat
currentlycollectspubliclyavailabledatacharacterizingbrakepadssoldinNorth
America.Washingtondata,collectedunderrequirementsinitsstatelawthatare
notpartofCalifornialaw,areparticularlyimportantbecausetheyarethefirstto
coverallvehiclebrakepadsandtheyareupdatedquarterly,providingtheability
trackmarketchanges.Organizationsusingtheseestimatesshouldevaluate
applicabilitytotheirspecificwatershedscarefully,consideringwatershed-specific
characteristicsandanyspeciallocalcoppersources,andshouldrecognizethe
uncertaintiesinherentintheseestimatesaswellastheirgenericnature.
EstimatedUrbanRunoffCopperReductionsResultingfromBrakePadCopperUseRestrictions
Pageii
ReportPreparerandAcknowledgements
TDCEnvironmental,LLCpreparedthisreport.KellyD.Moran,Ph.D.wasthelead
author.TheauthorappreciatestheincrediblededicationoftheBrakePad
PartnershipSteeringCommitteemembersandthePartnership’smanyfunders,
whosejointeffortsmadevirtuallyallofinformationinthisreportavailabletothe
publicandwerethefoundationforthebrakepadcopperreductionsthatare
currentlyunderway.Theauthorthanksthefollowingreviewersfortheirassistance
withcompletingthisreport:
•
•
•
•
IanWesley,WashingtonDepartmentofEcology
JianPeng,RitaAbellar,StuartGoong,andChrisCrompton,OrangeCounty
GeoffBrosseau,CASQA
RichardWatson,RichardWatson&Associates
Copyright©2016CaliforniaStormwaterQualityAssociation.Allrightsreserved.CASQAmember
organizationsmayincludethisreportintheirannualreportsprovidedcreditisprovidedtoCASQA.
Shortsectionsoftext,nottoexceedthreeparagraphs,maybequotedwithoutwrittenpermission
providedthatfullattributionisgiventothesource.
EstimatedUrbanRunoffCopperReductionsResultingfromBrakePadCopperUseRestrictions Pageiii
EstimatedUrbanRunoffCopperReductionsResultingfrom
BrakePadCopperUseRestrictions
TableofContents
Summary.....................................................................................................................................................vii
Section1:Background..............................................................................................................................1
1.1BrakePadCopperReductionRequirements....................................................................................1
1.2ImplementingBrakePadCopperReduction....................................................................................2
Section2:SummaryofAvailableInformation...............................................................................5
2.1BrakePadCopperReductionSchedule...............................................................................................5
2.2BrakePadCopperContent........................................................................................................................5
2.3BrakePadReplacementFrequency.......................................................................................................8
2.4VehicleFleetCharacterization.................................................................................................................8
2.5BrakePadCopperinUrbanRunoff........................................................................................................8
Section3:ComputationalAssumptions.........................................................................................10
Section4:BrakePadCopperReductionScenarios..................................................................16
Scenario1–One-StepReduction.................................................................................................................16
Scenario2–Two-StepReduction................................................................................................................17
Scenario3–AftermarketExemptionfrom0.5%CopperStandard..............................................19
Section5:Results....................................................................................................................................21
5.1EstimationApproach................................................................................................................................21
5.2Results.............................................................................................................................................................22
5.3ComparisontoWashingtonDepartmentofEcologyEstimates.............................................29
5.4Uncertainties................................................................................................................................................29
5.5MonitoringProgress.................................................................................................................................30
Section6:Conclusions...........................................................................................................................31
Section7:Recommendations............................................................................................................33
References..................................................................................................................................................35
EstimatedUrbanRunoffCopperReductionsResultingfromBrakePadCopperUseRestrictions Pageiv
ListofTables
Table1.CopperReductionScenarioSummary..........................................................................ix
Table2.EstimatedUrbanRunoffCopperReductionfromBrakePadsAlone.............xii
Table3.BrakePadCopperReductionImplementationTimeline.......................................2
Table4.BrakePadCopperContentCategories...........................................................................3
Table5.AverageManufacturedBrakePadCopperContent,2006-2015........................6
Table6.AverageBrakePadCopperContentbyCertificationLevel,July2015............7
Table7.AverageEstimatedBrakePadCopperContent2011.............................................7
Table8.OriginalEquipmentBrakePadCopperReductionScheduleAssumptions.10
Table9.AftermarketBrakePadCopperReductionScheduleAssumptions................11
Table10.BrakePadReplacementAssumptions......................................................................12
Table11.BrakePadCopperContentAssumptions.................................................................13
Table12.VehicleFleetAssumptions.............................................................................................14
Table13.VehicleMilesTraveled(VMT)Assumptions..........................................................15
Table14.UrbanRunoffAssumptions............................................................................................15
Table15.Scenario1–EstimatedCopperReductions............................................................25
Table16.Scenario2–EstimatedCopperReductions............................................................26
Table17.Scenario3a–EstimatedCopperReductions.........................................................27
Table18.Scenario3b–EstimatedCopperReductions.........................................................28
Table19.EstimatedAverageCopperContentofBrakePadsManufacturedin2021:
ComparisonamongScenarios1-3andWashingtonEcologyEstimate..................29
ListofFigures
Figure1.AverageBrakePadCopperContentbyYearManufactured:ReportedData
ComparedtoEstimates..................................................................................................................x
Figure2.UrbanRunoffCopperReductionProjections.............................................................x
Figure3.AverageBrakePadCopperContentbyCertificationLevel................................7
ComparedtoEstimates...............................................................................................................23
ComparedtoEstimates(Baselinethrough2019)...........................................................23
Figure6.On-RoadBrakePadCopperContentProjections..................................................24
Figure7.UrbanRunoffCopperReductionProjections..........................................................24
Pagev
April2016
Summary InresponsetoCaliforniaandWashingtonstatelawsmandatingthenearphase-out
ofcopperinvehiclebrakepads,thetransitionto<0.5%copperbrakepads(often
called“copperfree”or“nointentionallyaddedcopper”)iswellunderway.
Qualitatively,allsignspointtosignificantupcomingreductionsinbrakepadcopper.
Thisreportprovidesquantitativeestimatesoftheanticipatedupcomingcopper
reductionsinthebrakepadmarket,on-roadvehicles,andurbanrunoff.These
estimatesaredesignedforurbanrunoffmanagementplanningpurposes.
Theestimatesrelyonavailableinformation,whichwaslargelydevelopedthrough
thelengthycollaborationamongbrakepadmanufacturers,governmentagencies,
andenvironmentalgroupsintheBrakePadPartnership(BPP).Sincecertain
elementsofthebrakepadcopperreductionscheduleareunknownatthistimedue
totheproprietarynatureofproductformulationandsalesdata,theestimatesare
basedonaseriesofreasonableassumptionsdevelopedonthebasisofavailable
data.
Theestimatesevaluatedthreescenarios(seeTable1)developedtospanthe
reasonablerangeofindustryproductmodificationschedules.Scenario3,which
examinestheeffectofareplacementbrakepadexemptionforoldervehicles,has
twovariantstoencompasspossibleindustryresponses.Foreachscenario,the
reportprovidesquantitativeestimatesofbrakepadcoppercontentreductionsand
subsequenturbanrunoffcopperreductions.
Basedoncompliancecertificationdata,in
mid-201544%ofbrakepadformulations
contained<0.5%copper.Brakepads
containing>5%copper(whichaverage13%
copperbyweight),causetheoverallaverage
coppercontentofallcertifiedbrakepadsto
be5.6%,a32%reductionfromtheBPP’s
2006roughestimateofnewvehiclebrake
padcoppercontentanda22%reduction
fromvaluesreportedin2011.
Theaveragebrakepadmanufacturedin
2021areexpectedtocontain81-99%less
copperthantheydidintheearly2010s(See
Figure1).Thisestimatematchesthe
WashingtonDepartmentofEcology’s
estimate,whichusedadifferent
computationalmethod.Thesebrakepad
coppercontentreductionestimatesare
consistentwithbrakepadcopperdata
Today,44%ofavailablebrakepad
formulationscontain<0.5%
copper.
Brakepadsinmid-2015contained
anaverageof5.6%copper–a22%
reductionfrom2011(reported
data)andasmuchas32%lessthan
2006(roughestimate).
Brakepadsmanufacturedin2021
areexpectedtocontain81-99%
lesscopperthantheydidinthe
early2010s.
Urbanrunoffcopperlevelswill
beginrespondingmeasurablyin
the2020s.Urbanrunoffcopper
loadsareexpectedtobe46%to
57%lowerby2024.
EstimatedUrbanRunoffCopperReductionsResultingfromBrakePadCopperUseRestrictions Pagevi
April2016
collectedtodatebytheWashingtonDepartmentofEcology(seeblacklineinFigure
1).Thecurrentreductiontrendappearstobemidwaybetweenthemostoptimistic
Scenario1andthemoderateScenario2.
Inanygivenyear,urbanrunoffcopperreductionslagbehindcoppercontent
reductionsinmanufacturedbrakepadsbecausebrakepadsareonlychangedon
averageeverythreetofiveyears,wholesalerandretailerinventoriestakean
averageoftwoyearstoturnover,andurbanwatershedsdonotimmediatelyclear
pollutantswhendischargescease.Accountingforthesefactors,urbanrunoff
reductionwasestimatedthrough2032.Theresultingestimates,summarizedin
Table2andgraphedinFigure2,areexpressedasapercentagereductionincopper
inurbanrunoff,withamaximum61%reductionreflecting<0.5%copperin
essentiallyallon-roadvehiclebrakepads.(Othercoppersourcescomposethe
remaining39%ofurbanrunoffcopperload.)
Urbanrunoffcopperlevelsareexpectedtobeginrespondingmeasurablytobrake
padcopperreductionsinthe2020s.Urbanrunoffcopperloadsareexpectedtobe
46%to57%lowerby2024.Thetimeframeforreachingmaximumreductionscould
beassoonastheearly2030s,butwouldbesubstantiallydelayedifWashington
State(whichhasregulationsthatheavilyinfluencetheCaliforniabrakepadmarket)
weretomodifyitsregulatoryapproachforreplacementbrakepadsforolder
vehicles.
Themostsignificantuncertaintiesintheseestimatesareuncertaintiesinbrakepad
coppercontent(marketvolumesareunavailable),futurechangesinvehiclemiles
traveled,andwatershedresponsetimes,whichareaffectedbywatershed-specific
characteristicsandvariationinannualrainfallvolumes.
Insummary:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Newlymanufacturedvehiclebrakepadscontain,onaverage,significantly
lesscopperthantheydidintheearly2010s.
Inmid-2015,44%ofbrakepadformulationscontained<0.5%copper.
Brakepadsmanufacturedin2021areexpectedtocontain81-99%less
copperthantheydidintheearly2010s.
On-roadbrakepadcoppercontentisdropping,butmoreslowlythan
manufacturedbrakepadcoppercontent.A35%to43%reductioninon-road
brakecoppercontentshouldoccurby2019.
Duetotheslowerchangeinon-roadbrakesandwatershedlagtimes,urban
runoffcopperlevelsareslower.Theyareanticipatedtodropby21-27%by
2020andby46-57%by2024.
WashingtonState’supcomingdecisionaboutimplementingrequirements
thatallbrakepadscontain<0.5%copperhasimportantwaterquality
implicationsinCaliforniaandtherestofthenation.
RecommendationsfortheCaliforniaStormwaterQualityAssociationandits
members:
(1) SharetheseprojectionswithWashingtonStateandwiththevehicleindustry.
EstimatedUrbanRunoffCopperReductionsResultingfromBrakePadCopperUseRestrictions Pagevii
April2016
(2) Updatethesecopperreductionestimatesin2018usingdatafrom
implementationofCaliforniaSB346andWashingtonStatelaw.
(3) UsetheCaliforniaStateWaterBoardSurfaceWaterAmbientMonitoring
ProgramSedimentPollutionTrendsProgramsedimentmonitoringtotrack
brakepadcopperreductions.
(4) Usetheurbanrunoffcopperreductionestimatesinthisreport,in
combinationwithlocaldata,forurbanrunoffmanagementplanning
purposes,doingsoinamannerthatrecognizesthatuncertaintiesinthe
estimatesanduniquelocalwatershedcharacteristics.
EstimatedUrbanRunoffCopperReductionsResultingfromBrakePadCopperUseRestrictions Pageviii
April2016
Table1.CopperReductionScenarioSummary
2015
2016
2017
Scenario3b-
Aftermarket
Exemptionfrom
0.5%Copper
(Unconstrained
Replacement)
5%copperbrake
padsbeginto
phaseintonew
vehicles
5%copperbrake
padsbegintophase
intonewvehicles
5%copperbrake
padsbegintophase
intonewvehicles
0.5%copperbrake
padsbegintophase
intonewvehicles
0.5%copperbrake
padsbegintophase
intonewvehicles
AllOEPads<5%
copper
AllOEPads<5%
copper
Allreplacement
pads<5%copper
Allreplacementpads
<5%copper
Allreplacement
pads<5%copper
AllOEPads<0.5%
copper
AllOEPads<0.5%
copper
Scenario1–
One-Step
Reduction
Year
2014
Scenario2–
Two-Step
Reduction
Scenario3a-
Aftermarket
Exemptionfrom
0.5%Copper
(Like-for-Like
Replacement)
0.5%copper
brakepads
beginto
phaseinto
newvehicles
0.5%copper
brakepadsbegin
tophaseinto
newvehicles
AllOEPads<5%
copper
2018
2019
2020
2024
AllOEPads
<0.5%copper
All
replacement
Pads<0.5%
copper
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
AllOEPads
<0.5%copper
Allreplacement
pads<0.5%
copper
2032
2021
2022
2023
Allreplacementpads
eventually<0.5%
copper
EstimatedUrbanRunoffCopperReductionsResultingfromBrakePadCopperUseRestrictions Pageix
April2016
Figure1.AverageBrakePadCopperContentbyYearManufactured:
ReportedDataComparedtoEstimates
Figure2.UrbanRunoffCopperReductionProjections
Pagex
April2016
Table2.EstimatedUrbanRunoffCopperReductionfromBrakePadsAlone
Year
Scenario1-
OneStep
Reduction
Scenario2-
TwoStep
Reduction
Scenario3a-
Aftermarket
Exemptionfrom0.5%
CopperwithLike-forLikeReplacements
2016
2020
2024
2028
2032
2.8%
27.0%
57.0%
61.6%
61.6%
2.2%
21.3%
49.8%
60.3%
61.6%
2.2%
22.1%
47.9%
54.6%
57.7%
Scenario3b-
Aftermarket
Exemptionfrom0.5%
CopperwithNo
ReductioninCopper
PadMarketFraction
2.2%
21.2%
46.4%
51.9%
52.0%
EstimatedUrbanRunoffCopperReductionsResultingfromBrakePadCopperUseRestrictions Pagexi
April2016
Section1:Background
Asimpleaction—vehicledrivershittingthebrakes—releasedabout600,000
kilograms(1.3millionpounds)ofcopperintoCalifornia’senvironmentin2010.
Eachtimevehiclebrakesengage,atinyamountoffinedustwearsoffofthevehicle’s
brakepads.Whenitrains,someofthisdustwashesintourbanrunoff.Scientific
studiesindicatethatdustgeneratedbyvehiclebrakesisbyfarthemostsignificant
sourceofcopperinurbanwatersheds.InCalifornia’smosturbanizedwatersheds,
brakepadcopperisestimatedtocomposemorethan60%ofallcopperinurban
runoff(Donigian2009).1
1.1 Brake Pad Copper Reduction Requirements
ACalifornialawenactedin2010,CaliforniaSB346(Kehoe)setinplaceaprogram
thatwillnearlyeliminatecopperuseinbrakepads.CaliforniaSB346requiresthat
brakepadssoldinCaliforniacontainnomorethan5%copperbyweightby2021,
andnomorethan0.5%by2025.Accordingtoarepresentativeindustryanalysis,as
of2006,newvehiclebrakepadscontainedanaverageofabout8%copperby
weight(BPP2008).Thelawalsolimitsdangerous—butfortunatelylesscommon—
brakepadpollutants,byprohibitingsaleofbrakepadscontainingmorethantrace
amountsoflead,mercury,asbestos,cadmium,andhexavalentchromiumin2014.To
avoidreplacingoneenvironmentalproblemwithanother,CaliforniaSB346
requiresmanufacturerstoexaminenewformulationscarefullyandtoselect
alternativesthatposelesspotentialhazardtopublichealthandtheenvironment.
Consumersafetywillbeensuredthroughalimiteddeadlineextensionprocessfor
the20250.5%copperrequirement(availablestartingonlywhenamanufacturer
demonstratesthatnoalternativebrakefrictionmaterialswillbesafeandavailable)
andbyprovisionsallowingcontinuedsalesofreplacementbrakepadsforolder
vehicles.Thebrakepadcoppercontentcertificationandlabelingsystemestablished
byCaliforniaSB346willprovideforreadyidentificationofbrakepadswiththe
lowestcoppercontent.
FollowingCalifornia’smodel,theStateofWashingtonalsoenactedrestrictionson
brakepadcoppercontentin2010(WashingtonState2010).Washington’slaw
providesslightlydifferentexemptionsthanCalifornia’slaw—notablyamuch
narrowerexemptionfor“aftermarket”brakepadsthatreplacethe“original
equipment”brakepadssoldwithnewvehicles.Washingtonlawalsohasanother
importantdifferencefromCalifornialaw—itrequiresmanufacturerstoprovide
WashingtonStateDepartmentofEcologywithperiodicreportsofbrakepadcopper,
antimony,nickel,andzinccontent,startingin2013.
1Seereferencelistattheendofthisreport.
Page1
April2016
1.2 Implementing Brake Pad Copper Reduction
DuetotheimportanceofCalifornia’svehiclemarketandtheinterconnectionof
vehiclepartsdistributionsystemsthroughoutNorthAmerica,brakepad
manufacturersexpectthatitisunlikelythatanymanufacturerwillproduce
California-specificorWashington-specificproducts(MEMA2012a).Instead,copper
reductionwillbeintegratedthroughouttheentireNorthAmericanbrakepad
market(MEMA2012a).
Reflectingitsnationwidecommitmenttobrakepadcopperreduction,vehicle
industryassociationssigneda2015MemorandumofUnderstanding(MOU)with
theU.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency(U.S.EPA)committingtotakingthe
California/Washingtoncopperreductionprogramnationwide(U.S.EPA2015).
Table3providesatimelineofkeyimplementationactionssincethebrakepad
copperreductionlawswereadopted.
Table3.BrakePadCopperReductionImplementationTimeline
Year
Action
References
2010
CaliforniaandWashingtonbrakepadcopperlawsadopted
20112012
Automotiveindustrydevelopedandadoptedcompliance
certificationmarkings,boxmarkings,andcertifiedchemical
analysismethods.
WashingtonStateadoptedregulationsspecifyingtesting,
marking,andreportingrequirements
NSFInternational,thesolebrakefrictionmaterialcertification
organization(alsoknownasthe“registrar”)beganissuing
brakefrictionmaterialcertifications.
Brakepadsbearingcompliancecertificationmarkingsbegan
appearingonCaliforniaretailshelves.
CaliforniaDepartmentofToxicSubstancesControl(DTSC)
initiateddevelopmentofregulationstomakeCaliforniaSB
346fullyenforceableinCalifornia.Adoptionhasbeen
delayedduetoCaliforniaDTSCresourceconstraints,butis
anticipatedin2016.
AsofOctober2015,NSFInternationalhadcertifiedmorethan
5,000brakefrictionmaterialformulations,44%ofwhich
contain<0.5%copper.SeeSection2.2formoreinformation
onbrakepadcoppercontent).
MostbrakepadsavailableforsaleinCaliforniabear
compliancemarkings,bothonpadsandboxes.
WashingtonDepartmentofEcologyissuesfindingthatcopper
freebrakepads“may”beavailable,triggeringthenextsteps
inWashington’sregulatoryprocesstodeterminewhether(or
when)toimplementrequirementsthatallbrakepadscontain
<0.5%copper(similartoCalifornia’s2025requirements).
CaliforniaSB3462010;
WashingtonStateSB
65572010
SAE2011;SAE2012;
MEMA2012b
2012
2013
2014
2015
WashingtonDepartment
ofEcology2012
NSFInternational2015
NSFInternational2015
ofEcology2015b
Page2
April2016
Basedontheframeworksinthestatelawsandsystemsadoptedbytheindustry,
brakepadsarecertifiedinthreegroups—A,B,andN—summarizedinTable4.The
matchingboxcompliancemarkinglogo,calledthe“LeafMark”isa3-leafsymbolthat
accompaniesthecertificationletter.Thenumberofdarkleavesinthelogoindicates
thecertificationlevel,withthedarkestshadingforthelowestcopperbrakepads.
Table4.BrakePadCopperContentCategories
Certification
Level
Definition
BoxMarkingSymbol*
Meetslegalstandardsforasbestos,cadmium,
Singleshadedleaf
chromium,lead,andmercury
SameasAand<5%and≥0.5%copper
Twoshadedleaves
B
(“lowcopper”)
N
SameasAand<0.5%copper(“copperfree”)
Allthreeleavesshaded
*Logographicsnotincludedduetoindustryrestrictionsonlogouse.
A
IntheyearssinceCaliforniaSB346wasenacted,thevehicleindustryhasactively
engagedinimplementingthelaw(e.g.,Moran2011).Therehasbeenstrongindustry
attentiontoformulating,testing,andmarketinglow-copperandcopper-freebrake
pads(Honeywellundated;FDPBrake2010-2012;Venetis2012;Performance
Friction2012;Williamsundated;Fastmagna.com2010;Bendix2012;Phoenix2010;
ALCO2012;Wilson2012;Crowe2012;AftermarketNews2012;Murphy2012;
BoschAutoParts2014).Prominentmanufacturershaveissuedasteadystreamof
productannouncements,suchas:
•
•
•
•
Earlyleaders,likeFDPBrake,Honeywell,andWilliams,announcedcopperfreeproductlinesassoonas2010(Honeywellundated;FDPBrake20102012;Williamsundated).
Startingin2010,manufacturerslikeBendixandTRWLucaswithexisting
copper-freeproductsincludedthelackofcopperasaproductbenefitin
promotions(Fastmagna.com2010;Bendix2012).
By2012,copper-freeproductswerebeingtestedbyvehiclemanufacturers
foruseinnewandupdatedvehicles.MajorEuropeanmanufacturer
Brembo’s2012AnnualReportdescribedvehiclemanufactureracceptanceof
thecompany’scopper-freeformulations(Brembo2013).FederalMogul’s
productswereacceptedbymultiplevehiclemanufacturers(FederalMogul
2013).
In2012,bothHoneywellandFederalMogulannouncedlinesoflowcopper
andcopper-freebrakepads,bothseekingtobeamongthefirstmajor
manufacturerstomarketfulllinesofcopper-freeproducts(FederalMogul
2013,Honeywell2013).InOctober2014,Federal-Mogulannouncedarelated
brakepadlinefortrucks(GreenCarCongress2014).
Page3
April2016
•
Inlate2014,oneoftheworld’slargestbrakefrictionmanufacturers,Bosch
AutoParts,2announcedtheavailabilityofcopper-freebrakepadsinitsmajor
productlines.Italsoannouncedplansfortransitiontocopper-free
formulationsforproductsservingallU.S.domestic,Asian,andEuropean
vehiclesyearsaheadofregulatorydeadlines(BoschAutoParts2014;Auto
ServiceProfessional2015).
Reflectingthesedevelopments,oneofthemajorthemesoftheSocietyof
AutomotiveEngineers2014BrakeColloquium&Exhibition(BurlingameCalifornia
September2014)wasthetransitiontocopper-freebrakepads.Manufacturers
advertisednewlinesofcopperfreebrakefrictionmaterials,suppliersoffered
formulationingredientstosupportthetransitiontocopper-freeformulations,and
presentationstoldthestoriesofbrakefrictionmaterialmanufacturer(e.g.Akebono)
andautomobilemanufacturer(e.g.,Ford,Chrysler)programsunderwayto
transitionawayfromhighcopperbrakepads.Theemphasiswasoncopper-free,
ratherthan<5%copperbrakepads,andaworldwidescopeforindustrybrakepad
coppereliminationprograms,whichsimplifiesproductmanagementandregulatory
complianceforthediverseinternationalsupplychainsinthevehicleindustry.
2AccordingtoBosch,oneofeverythreevehiclesontheroadcontainsaBoschbrakingcomponent
(AutoServiceProfessional2015).
Page4
April2016
Section2:SummaryofAvailableInformation
Thissectionsummarizestheavailableinformationthatformsthebasisforthebrake
copperreductionestimates.
2.1 Brake Pad Copper Reduction Schedule
In1999,theBrakeManufacturer’sCouncilcommittedtooffernewlow-copper
brakepadmaterialstocustomerswithin5yearsofanyBPPdecisionthatbrake
padsareamajorcoppersource(Lawrence1999).Thiscommitmentwastriggered
bytheBPPinlate2008.AsdiscussedinSection1,manymanufacturersare
currentlyofferinglowcopperandcopper-freebrakepadstocustomers.The
timelinesinCaliforniaSB346andWashingtonstatelawprovidedeightyearsafter
the2013reformulationcommitmentforvehiclemanufacturerstore-engineerall
vehicleplatformstoincorporatethenewbrakepadformulations(BPP1996-2012).
Thistimeframewasspecificallyselectedtoallowvehiclemanufacturerstocomplete
therequiredbrakesystemre-engineeringinconjunctionwiththeirregularreengineeringofvehicleplatforms.Bothlawsprovideforasecondoverlapping
vehiclere-engineeringcycletoreachthe20250.5%copperstandard,which
requiredtechnologythatwasnotinsightwhenthelawswereadoptedin2010(but
thatisnowcommerciallyavailableasdocumentedabove).
InformationsummarizedinSection1showsthatthetransitiontothelowestcopper
brakepadsisproceedinginaccordancewiththeprocessanticipatedbytheBPP–
andperhapsevenmorequicklythanthewasanticipated.
2.2 Brake Pad Copper Content
ThroughtheBPP,brakepadmanufacturersreportedbrakepadcoppercontent
annuallyfrom1998-2006forthehighestsalesvolumenewvehicles(BPP2008).In
2006,originalequipmentbrakepadscontainedanestimatedoverallaverageof
8.2%copperbyweight.Thisaveragerepresentsamixtureofhigh-copperbrake
pads(10-20%copper)andbrakepadswithnointentionallyaddedcopper.In2008,
manufacturerscollectedformulationtypedatatoestimatethefractionofthemarket
composedofno-copperbrakepads(Phipps2008).BecausetheBPPreporting
coveredonlyoriginalequipmentbrakepads(thosesoldonnewvehicles),theBPP
developedaseparateestimateofthecoppercontentinaftermarket(replacement)
brakepads(Rosselot2009).
TomeetcertificationrequirementsunderWashingtonStatelaw,whichareslightly
differentthanthoseinCalifornia,brakepadmanufacturersmustprovidelaboratory
reportsdocumentingtestingofeachcertifiedbrakepadformulationtothestate.
Thesedataarecurrentlythebestavailableinformationaboutbrakepadcopper
content.WashingtonDepartmentofEcologycompilesthesecoppercontentdata
quarterlyandpoststheaveragebrakepadcoppercontentontheInternet
(WashingtonDepartmentofEcology2015a).Becausesalesvolumesarenot
reported,WashingtonDepartmentofEcologyassumesthateachformulahasan
equalchanceofbeingused(WashingtonDepartmentofEcology2015a).
Page5
April2016
TheWashingtondatarevealthatsignificantcopperreductionshavealready
occurredascomparedtotheBPPestimateandWashington’sownbaselinedata(see
Table5).
Table5.AverageManufacturedBrakePadCopperContent,2006-2015
Date
Average
Copper
Content
Reduction
ComparedtoBPP
2006Estimate
Reduction
Comparedto
Washington2011
Baseline
Source
2006
2011
(Washington
Baseline)
8.2%*
--
--
BPP2008
7.2%
16%
--
ofEcology2013
July1,2014
6.4%
22%
11%
July1,2015
5.6%
32%
22%
ofEcology2015a
ofEcology2015a
*OriginalEquipmentbrakepadsonly
Basedonthedataforthe4,862brakepadformulationscertifiedasofJuly1,2015,3
averagecoppercontentforeachcertificationlevelwascalculated.Theresultsarein
Table6andFigure3.4
Washingtonalsorequireda“baseline”reportprovidingestimatedcoppercontentof
brakepadssoldin2011(WashingtonDepartmentofEcology2013).Forthe
baselinereport,Washingtondidnotrequirechemicalmeasurements—just
estimatesbasedonmanufacturerformulations.Thebaselinereportcoveredfar
fewerformulations(1,720)than2015reporting.Thesedataaresummarizedin
Table7.
Forthebaselinereportingonly,Washingtonrequiredmanufacturerstoidentify
brakepadsusedfor“heavyduty”vehicles(i.e.,largetrucks).Thesedata,when
separatelyanalyzedandcorrectedbasedoninformationfromtheSocietyof
AutomotiveEngineers,showedarelativelylow0.5%averagecoppercontentfor
truckbrakes(WashingtonDepartmentofEcology2013).5
The2011baselineestimateshadalmostthesameaveragecoppercontentasthe
2015measureddata(Table6)forbrakepadsthatwouldhavefallenintheAandB
certificationlevels,butaloweraverageforformulationsthatwouldhavefallenin
theNcertificationlevel.Thislattervaluemayreflectthepresenceofthenunknown
tracecopperinnon-copperingredients.
3AnanonymizedversionofthesedatawereprovidedbyWashingtonEcology.
4Thesevaluesaresimilartopriorassumptions—A(10%),B(4%),N(0.1%)—thatwerebasedon
informalestimatesfromtheBrakePadPartnership(Moran2013).
5Thisexcludesformulationsforrarelyusedtruckdiscbrakes(WashingtonDepartmentofEcology
2013).
Page6
April2016
Figure3.AverageBrakePadCopperContentbyCertificationLevel
Table6.AverageBrakePadCopperContentbyCertificationLevel,July2015
Certification
Level
AverageCopperContent
FractionofCertifiedFormulations
A
13%
39%
B
2.7%
18%
N
0.05%
43%
ALL
5.6%
100%
Source:WashingtonEcologydataforbrakepadformulationscertifiedasofJuly1,2015.
Table7.AverageEstimatedBrakePadCopperContent2011
CopperContent
Category
AverageEstimated
CopperContent
(AllFormulations)
AverageEstimated
CopperContent
(ExcludingHeavy
Duty)
FractionofReported
Formulations
(ExcludingHeavy
Duty)
>5%
13%
13%
(ALevel)
<5%and≥0.5%
2.9%
3%
(Blevel)
<0.5%
0.02%
0.003%
(Nlevel)
ALL
6%
7.2%
Source:WashingtonEcologybaselinebrakepadcoppercontentreporting.
52%
13%
35%
100%
Page7
April2016
TheWashingtondatasetrepresentsallvehiclebrakepadsthatmaylegallybesold
inWashingtonState.Becausemanufacturersdonotreport(andtreatas
confidential)salesdataforeachcertifiedbrakepadformulation,theWashington
datacannotaccountforeachformulation’smarketshare.Consequently,thedata
representanaverageofallavailableformulations,nottheaveragecontentofbrake
padssold.
2.3 Brake Pad Replacement Frequency
Brakepadmaterialwearsoffgraduallyoverthelifetimeofthepad.Tosupportthe
workoftheBPP,manufacturerssharedproprietarymarketsurveydata
characterizingthereplacementfrequenciesoforiginalequipmentandaftermarket
brakepads(BPP1996-2012;AAIA2008).Thesedatashowedthatonaverage,
originalequipmentbrakepadsarereplacedwhenavehicleis3-4yearsold.
Becauseoldervehiclesaredrivenfewermilesperyear(FHWA2009;Santos2011),
theiraftermarketbrakepadsareonlyreplacedatarateofabout21%peryear
(AAIA2008).
2.4 Vehicle Fleet Characterization
TheCaliforniaDepartmentofFinanceperiodicallypublishessummariesofvehicle
registrationdata.Themostrecentdatawerepublishedin2009(DOF2009).These
summariesprovidevehicleagedistributionsandthefractionofvehicleregistrations
bytype(light-duty,heavy-duty,motorcycle,trailer).Inadditiontothesedata,
informationfromtheSouthernCaliforniaAssociationofGovernments’
transportationmonitoringandinformationsystem(SCAG2012),WashingtonState
(WashingtonDepartmentofEcology2013),andtheBPP(BPP1996-2012and
Rosselot2010)providethebasisforassumingthatneglectingcontributionsfrom
heavydutyvehicles(i.e.largetrucks),motorcycles,andtrailerswillnotintroduce
significanterrorinthecopperreductionestimate.
2.5 Brake Pad Copper in Urban Runoff
TheBPPcompletedpeer-reviewedscientificstudiestocharacterizebrakepad
emissions(BMCPEC2006;Haselden2004;Schlautman2006),examineall
environmentalcoppersources(Rosselot2006a;Rosselot2006b),anddevelop
quantitativeestimatesofthebrakepadcoppercontributiontototalstormwater
copperloadsusinglinkedairandwatershedmodels(Pun2006a;Pun2006b;
Donigian2007;Donigian2009).
TheBPP’s“UpperColma”modelingwatershedisthemosturbanizedamongthe
watershedsconsideredinBPPmodeling.Itbestrepresentsurbanrunoff,whichwas
notseparatelymodeled.Itisalsomostlikeotherhighlyurbanizedwatersheds
acrossthestatebecauseofitscombinationofhighurbanization,hightrafficlevels,
andlocationsurroundedbyotherurbanareas.Inthiswatershed,brakepadcopper
wasestimatedtocompose58-66%oftotalanthropogeniccopper.
BPPmodelingestimatedwatershedresponsetimetobrakepadcopperreductions
(Donigian2009).Forurbanrunoff,responsetimecanreasonablyassumedtobe
Page8
April2016
similartotheBPP’sestimatesforresponsetimesinhighlyurbanizedwatersheds
withconcretelinedchannels.Inthemosthighlyimperviouswatersheds,theBPP
estimatedwatershedresponsetimesarerelativelyquick,with>70%copper
reductionsestimatedthefirstyearafterachangeinbrakepadreformulationand
nearly90%reductionin5years.Concretechannelswerefoundtofurtherreduce
watershedresponsetimes.Responsetimesinsurfacewatersreceivingurbanrunoff
dependonsite-specificfactorslikechannellength,shape,channelbottommaterial,
andsedimentloads(Donigian2009).
Page9
April2016
Section3:ComputationalAssumptions
Thecopperreductionestimatesrelyonaseriesofreasonableassumptionsthat
weredevelopedonthebasisofavailableinformation,includingthebrakepadspecificinformationsummarizedinSection2.Theseassumptionsaredetailedin
Tables8-14.
Table8.OriginalEquipmentBrakePadCopperReductionScheduleAssumptions
Assumption
Basis
References
ByJanuary1,2021,all
originalequipmentbrake
padswillcontainless
than5%copper.
ByJanuary1,2025,all
originalequipmentbrake
padswillcontainless
than0.5%copper
Extensionrequestsfor
0.5%copperrequirement
willberelativelylimited.
RequirementsofCaliforniaSB346
CaliforniaSB346
Difficultyofextensionprocessandshorttime
frameforeachextension,longtimeframefor
developmentofalternatives,industrypressand
informalcommunicationsindicatingthat
alternativesarebecomingavailable.
Estimatesfrombrakepadandvehicle
manufacturers,whohaveconsistentlyexplained
thattheyplantointroducenewbrakepads
whencompletingthecyclicalre-engineeringof
vehicleplatforms.Industrypressandbrakepad
manufacturerannouncementshavebeen
consistentwiththestatementsmadeduring
developmentoflegislation.
WashingtonStatelawestablishesthesame
compliancedateasCalifornialawforbrakepads
<5%copper,butdoesnotestablishafirmdate
forrequiringbrakepads<0.5%copper.
Washingtonmustconductareviewandmust
findthat<0.5%copperpadsare“available”(as
definedunderWashingtonlaw)tosetthe
compliancedate.Washington’sreviewwilloccur
in2016basedonapreliminarydetermination
issuedinlate2015.Washington’sreview
processanddecisionwilltake1-2years,after
whichmanufacturerswillhave8yearsto
comply,settinguptimingforimplementationon
1/1/25,concurrentwithCalifornia
implementation.Theindustryandthetwo
stateshaveworkedtoharmonizethe
implementationoftheCaliforniaand
Washingtonlaws.
CaliforniaSB346;BPP
1996-2012;sourcesin
Section1
Lowercopperbrakepads
willbephasedinonnew
vehiclesataconstant
rateoveran8-year
periodpriortoeach
compliancedeadline.
WashingtonStatewill
requirenewvehicle
brakepadstocontain
lessthan0.5%copperby
January1,2025(same
scheduleasCalifornia).
MEMA2010;BPP19962012;sourcesinSection
1
WashingtonState2010;
ofEcology2015b;
sourcesinSection1
EstimatedUrbanRunoffCopperReductionsResultingfromBrakePadCopperUseRestrictions Page10
April2016
Table9.Aftermarket*BrakePadCopperReductionScheduleAssumptions
Assumption
Basis
References
Non-compliantreplacementbrake
padsforpre-2021andpre-2025
vehiclesmaybesoldindefinitely.
UnderWashingtonstatelaw,starting
onJanuary1,2021,allnewly
manufacturedreplacementbrake
padsmustcontainlessthan5%
copper.Non-compliantreplacement
brakepadsmanufacturedpriorto
January1,2021maybesolduntil
December31,2030.Non-compliant
replacementbrakepadsmaybesold
indefinitely,butonlyiftheyare
identicaltooriginalequipmentbrake
pads.
WashingtonState’sexemptionfor
originalequipmentbrakepadsthat
areidenticaltotheonessoldwith
thenewvehiclewillhaveonlyasmall
effect.
ProvisionofCaliforniaSB346
CaliforniaSB346
WashingtonStatelaw
WashingtonState
2010;
Washington
Departmentof
Ecology2012
Originalequipmentservice(replacement)
padsthatareidenticaltotheonessold
withthevehiclecomposeaverysmall
fractionofthemarketbecauseforcost
reasons,evenvehicledealersswitchfrom
thesepadstolowercostvehicle
manufacturerapprovedservicepadsafew
yearslater.Vehiclemanufacturers
protestedthenarrownatureofthis
exemptionduringdevelopmentof
Washington’slegislationandits
regulations,buttheAutomotive
AftermarketIndustryAssociation
supportedit.
Atypicalreplacementbrakepadinventory
“turntime”is<2years.Somelowvolume
padsmaybeheldininventoriesforaslong
astenyears.Inventorycarryingcostshold
downinventoryvolumes.Brakepad
inventoryturntimeislongerthanother
retailinventoryturntimesbecauseofthe
plethoraofvehiclemodelsandsome
manufacturers’historiclackof
standardizationofpartsacrossvehicle
models.
Brakingperformancewillbemosteasily
matchedwithlowercopperformulations.
BPP1996-2012
Recognizingthatbrakepadsaleslag
behindshipmentsofnewproducts
duetotheinventory“turntime”in
thebrakepadsupplychain,only45%
ofbrakepadssoldinagivenyearare
shippedinthatyear.Theremaining
salesarecomposedofbrakepads
shippedinthepreviousyear(30%)
andbrakepadsshippedtwoyears
prior(25%).
Replacementbrakepadsforvehicles
manufacturedwithlowcopperbrake
padswillalsobelowincopper,even
ifthevehicleismanufacturedprior
tocompliancedeadlines.
*Replacement
BPP1996-2012
BPP1996-2012
April2016
Table9.AftermarketBrakePadCopperReductionScheduleAssumptions(Continued)
Assumption
Basis
Replacementbrakepadscontaining
lowerlevelscopperthataredesigned
forvehiclesmanufacturedwithhigh
copperbrakepadsarephasinginata
constantratestartingin2014.The
endofthephaseinperiodwillbe
determinedbyWashington’s
compliancedeadlines.
Sincesafetystandardapplytonew
BPP1996-2012;
vehicles—andnottobrakepads—thereis
sourcesin
nospecificregulatoryconstrainton
Section1
aftermarketbrakepadformulations.
Driversfortheaftermarketincludecost,
safety,andcustomeracceptance.Since
copperisanexpensiveingredient,cost
considerationspointtowardearly
reformulation.Aftermarketmanufacturers
haveahistoryofmakingproductsavailable
tofitnewvehicleswithinafewmonthsof
thevehicle’sinitialmanufacture,suggesting
thattheywillmakeproductsavailableona
schedulethatphasesinoverthesame
generaltimeperiodasthephaseinfor
originalequipmentbrakepads.Press
releasesandindustrywebsitesindicate
thatbrakepadscontaining<5%copperand
brakepadscontaininglessthan0.5%are
bothalreadyavailable.Manufacturersmay
belessmotivatedtointroducenew
productsforoldvehicles,whichpresentthe
needtodesignpadswithcharacteristics
similartothoseprovidedbyhighcopper
brakepads.
References
Table10.BrakePadReplacementAssumptions
Assumption
Basis
References
Originalequipmentbrake
padsarereplacedwhen
vehicleis3.5yearsold.
Vehiclesmorethan3.5
yearsoldhavetheirbrake
padsreplacedonceevery
5years.
Brakepadsaretypicallyreplacedafter3-4yearsof
service,afterabout35,000-40,000milesofdriving.
BPP1996-2012
AutomotiveAftermarketIndustryAssociationsurvey
dataoftheaftermarketindicatethat20-22%of
vehiclesmorethan3yearsoldhavetheirbrakepads
replacedeachyear.Oldervehicleslikelyhavealower
brakepadreplacementratethannewvehicles
becausevehiclemilestraveledfallswithvehicleage.
AAIA2008;BPP
1996-2012;FHWA
2009;Santos2011
April2016
Table11.BrakePadCopperContentAssumptions
Assumption
Basis
References
In2013,vehiclebrake
pads—includingboth
originalequipmentand
aftermarket—contained
anaverageof7.2%copper
byweight.
In2013,vehiclebrake
pads—includingboth
originalandaftermarket—
containedcopperas
follows:
• 52%contained>5%
copper,averaging
13%copperbyweight
• 13%contained
between5%and0.5%
copper,averaging3%
copperbyweight
• 35%contained<0.5%
copper,averaging
0.05%copperby
weight
Brakepadsmeetingthe
<5%copperrequirement
willcontainanaverageof
2.7%copperbyweight.
Brakepadsmeetingthe
<0.5%copperrequirement
willcontainanaverageof
0.05%copperbyweight.
WashingtonEcologybrakecertificationbaselinedata
set(2011brakepads)forlight-dutyvehicles.
Washington
Departmentof
Ecology2013
WashingtonEcologybrakecertificationbaselinedata
set(2011brakepads)forlight-dutyvehicles(Table6).
Measuredvaluesfromthe2015datasetareusedfor
the<0.05%copperbrakepadsbecausethe2011
estimatedvaluesdidnotappeartoaccountfortrace
copperinnon-copperingredients.
Washington
Departmentof
Ecology2013;
Washington
Ecologydatafor
brakepad
formulations
certifiedasofJuly
1,2015
WashingtonEcologybrakecertification2015data(See
Table5).Futureformulationsareassumedtocontinue
tohavesimilarconcentrations.Duetovariationin
materialsinputandmanufacturingprocessesforbrake
pads(whichareheterogeneousmaterials),toensure
compliance,productsarebeingdesignedwithcopper
contentwellbelowcompliancelevels.Sincecopper
reportedlydoesnotserveausefuldesignpurpose
below1%concentrations,brakepadscontainingless
than0.5%copperlikelyonlycontaintracecopper
introducedviaimpuritiesinotheringredients(e.g.,
recycledmetals).
Thebrakepadmarketplacecoversallofnorth
America.Distributionchannelsdonotdifferentiate
brakepadsbystate.WashingtonEcologyadvised
manufacturersthatdidnotknowwhichstatestheir
productsweresoldintoreportonallproductssoldin
NorthAmerica.Ecologybelievesmostmanufacturers
reportedforallproductssoldinNorthAmerica.
Washington
Ecologydatafor
brakepad
formulations
certifiedasofJuly
1,2015
BrakePadcoppercontent
reportedtoWashington
Stateisthesameas
Californiabrakepad
coppercontent.
BPP1996-2012,
U.S.EPAandcosigners2015;
Washington
Departmentof
Ecology2013
April2016
Table12.VehicleFleetAssumptions
Assumption
Basis
References
Theagedistributionof
California’svehiclefleet
willremainessentiallythe
sameasthedistributionin
2007
Noavailableinformationsuggeststhatfuture
distributionswillchangedramatically.Thegyrationsin
vehiclesalesvolumesduringtheeconomicdownturn
appeartohaveended.Californiahasceased
preparationofvehicleregistrationreports;no
alternativepublicdatasourcewasidentified.
Heavy-duty(truck)brake
coppercontributionsare
small.
Truckshavelargerbrakepads,butsinceconsumer
acceptanceissues(noise,brakingcomfort)thathave
drivencopperinuseinvehiclesarenotpresentinthis
marketanddiscbrakes(whichtypicallyhavehigher
coppercontent)areuncommonintheU.S.heavy-duty
vehiclemarket,copperuseisrelativelylow,on
averageabout0.5%,whichis<10%ofaveragecopper
concentrationsinlight-dutyvehicles.Heavy-duty
truckscomposearelativelysmallfractionoftotal
CaliforniaurbanVMT,e.g.,SCAGvehiclemilestraveled
(VMT)datashowtrucksrepresentlessthan3.5%of
totalvehiclemilestraveledinLosAngelesCounty.
WashingtonEcologyestimatedthattruckbrakes
composed<10%ofcopperreleases.
Motorcycleswereestimatedtobe<1%ofstatewide
brakepadcopperemissionsbytheBPP.Washington
Ecologyestimatedmotorcycleemissionsrepresent
<0.1%oftotalstatewidebrakepadcopperemissions.
Trailerscompriselessthan10%oftotalCalifornia
vehicleregistrations.Trailersprobablyrepresenta
relativelysmallportionofthevehiclemilestraveled
andareprimarilyusedonheavy-dutytrucks(see
above)andforrecreationalpurposes.
DOF2009.Table
J3:“Distribution
OfFee-Paid
RegistrationsBy
TypeAndYear
FirstRegistered
California,2007.”
SCAG2012;Gilroy
2011;BPP19962012;Washington
Departmentof
Ecology2013
Motorcyclecontributions
aresmall
Trailercontributionsare
small
Othervehicletypes
exemptedfromCalifornia
SB346releasenegligible
quantitiesofcopper
BrakePadPartnershipinformalanalysis
Rosselot2010;
Washington
Departmentof
Ecology2013
DOF2009.Table
J5:“Registration
ofMotorVehicles
andTrailerswhich
PaidFeesbyType
ofVehicle
California,1971to
2007”
BPP1996-2012
April2016
Table13.VehicleMilesTraveled(VMT)Assumptions
Assumption
Basis
Brakepadwearis
proportionaltoVMT
VMTwillnotchange
significantlyincoming
years.
Informationprovidedbybrakepadmanufacturerstothe
BrakePadPartnership.
FutureVMTtrendsoverthenexttwodecadesareuncertain,
dependingonfactors—includingpublicpolicyactions—that
cannotbepredictedtoday.VMTpeakedinthemid-2000s,
signalinganapparentmajorshiftinmobilitybehavior.While
VMTreboundedin2014-15,itremainsbelowthepriorpeak.
Long-termprojectionsarehighlyuncertain.Increasing
gasolinepricesandlegislation,regulation,andplanning
activitiestoreduceVMTbecauseofclimatechangecould
stabilize—andmayactuallyreduce—futureVMT.
Therelativefractionof BrakePadmanufacturerdatashowthatbrakepadwear
vehiclemilestraveled
ratesoncitystreetsare5-10timesgreaterthanemissionson
onhighways(as
highways,duetoloweruseofbrakepadspermiletraveled
comparedtocity
onhighways.Aslongastherelativeproportionofvehicle
streets)willnotchange milestraveledonthesestwotypesofroaddoesnotchange,
significantlyincoming thisdoesnotaffectloadestimates.
years.
References
Phipps2006
Hymel2014;
SCAG2012;
Caltrans2015
Phipps2006
Table14.UrbanRunoffAssumptions
Assumption
Basis
References
UrbanRunoffCopper
Fraction=62%
Urbanrunoff
watershedresponse
time=1year
Inthemosthighlyurbanizedwatersheds,brakepadcopper
Donigian2009
represents58-66%oftotalanthropogeniccopper.
Urbanrunoffresponsetimesareassumedtoberepresented Donigian2009
bythemosthighlyimperviousSanFranciscoBayarea
(California)watershedsthatweremodeledbytheBPP.In
thesewatersheds,responsetimeisestimatedtoberelatively
quick,with>70%copperreductionsestimatedthefirstyear
afterbrakepadreformulationandnearly90%reductionin5
years.Modelingsuggeststhatchannelizedwatersheds,
whichcouldbeconsideredakintopipedstormdrains,
experienceaslightlyquickerwashoutperiodthanthe
naturalchannelsmodeledintheSanFranciscoBayarea,
California.
Weatherintroducesuncertaintyintopredictedcopper
reductionschedules.Wetweatherandlargestormsmobilize
copperinwatersheds,increasingthespeedofcopper
reductions.Dryyearsreducethewashout,increasingthe
lengthoftimethatittakesforbrakepadcopperreductions
tobefullyreflectedinwaterways.Modelersfoundthatdry
wateryearscenariosslightlyincreasedwashouttime,byat
mostafewyears.
Theseresponsetimesareonlyforurbanrunoff;response
timesinsurfacewatersdependonmultiplefactorsthat
cannotbeestimatedgenerically.
April2016
Section4:BrakePadCopperReductionScenarios
Thefollowingthreescenariosweredevelopedonthebasisofavailableinformation
tobrackettherangeofpotentialratesofbrakepadcopperreduction.Eachscenario
isbasedonadifferentpotentialpathwayforthemarkettransitiontothebrakepads
containinglessthan0.5%copper.Thethirdscenariohastwovariantstoexamine
theimplicationsofpotentialmanufacturerresponsesifWashingtonDepartmentof
Ecologyabandonsitsprecedentforhandlingexemptionswhenmakingitsdecision
aboutimplementationofrequirementsthatallbrakepadscontain<0.5%copper.
Scenario 1 – One-Step Reduction
Virtuallyalloriginalequipment(newvehicle)andaftermarket(replacement)brake
padsarereformulatedto<0.5%copperbyJanuary1,2021(firstCaliforniaSB346
coppercompliancedeadline).Virtuallyallaftermarketbrakepadscontaininghigher
copperlevelsthatremainindistributorandretailerinventoriesaresoldwithintwo
yearsofthisdate.
Brakepad,brakesystems,andnewvehiclemanufacturerswouldgreatlyreduce
theirengineeringcostsforthetransitiontolowcopperbrakepadsiftheycanmove
directlytobrakepadswithlessthan0.5%copper.Thisscenariodescribesthe
copperreductionsthatwouldoccurifbrakepadmanufacturerscompleteproduct
reformulationinasinglecycle,thusavoidingtworoundsofre-engineeringoftheir
productsandtheirmanufacturingprocesses.Theprimarybasisforthisscenariois
theassumptionthatallmanufacturerscanquicklydevelopproductscontainingless
than0.5%copperthatmeetallmanufacturing,cost,andcustomerrequirements.
AsSection1details,thereissomeevidencesuggestingthatthisscenariomayoccur.
Majorvehiclemanufacturersarerequestingthatsuppliersprovidebrakepadswith
lessthan0.5%copperfortheirnewvehiclemodels.Brakepadmanufacturersare
currentlybringingtomarketbothoriginalequipmentandaftermarketbrakepad
lineswithlessthan0.5%copper.Someoftheselinesarespecificallydesignedto
replicatethebrakingperformancepropertiesofhighercopperformulations.
Foraftermarketbrakepads,thisscenarioassumesthatWashingtonState
requirementswilldrivethemarkettransition.UnlikeCalifornialaw,Washington
lawhasverynarrowexemptionsforaftermarketbrakepads(WashingtonState
2010).Duetothecomplexityofbrakepaddistributionchains,ifhighercopper
brakepadsenternationaldistributionsystemsafterWashington’scompliance
deadlines,manufacturersandretailerswillhavetroubleavoidingnon-compliance
withWashingtonrequirements(BPP2008-2010).Consequently,brake
manufacturershavestatedtheirintenttoimplementbrakepadcopperreductions
nationally(U.S.EPAandco-signers2015;MEMA2012a).
TheprimaryexemptionforaftermarketbrakepadsunderWashingtonlawisan
allowancefor“inventoryrunoff”ofbrakepadsmanufacturedpriortothe
compliancedeadline(WashingtonState2010).Toensurecompliance,brakepad
manufacturedatemustbemarkedonpads;thisdatemarkingispartofthe
April2016
nationwidebrakepadcompliancemarkingsystem(SAE2012).Typicalreplacement
brakepadinventoryturnovertimeislessthantwoyears(BPP1996-2012).Thus,
aftertwoyears,mostbrakepadsmorethantwoyearsoldhavebeensold.
Anotherconsiderationfortheaftermarketisthatcopperisfarmoreexpensivethan
otherbrakepadingredients(BPP1996-2012).Sincepriceistheprimarycustomer
interestintheaftermarket,manufacturershaveafinancialincentivetoeliminate
copperinaftermarketbrakepads,particularlynowthathighercoppercontentisno
longerperceivedasapositiveattribute.
Thisscenarioalsomayavoidtheneedforpurchaseofspecialchemicalanalysis
equipmentformanufacturerstomonitorproductsforcompliancewiththe5%
copperstandard.Inbrakepadmaterials(frictionmaterials),copperconcentration
measurementsaround5%copperposeuniquechemicalanalysischallengesthatdo
notoccuratthe0.5%level(BPP1996-2012).Developingmanufacturingprocess
controlsforthiscopperconcentrationwouldcausemanufacturerstoincurone-time
coststhathaveonlyshort-termbenefits.
Theprimaryshortcomingsofthisscenarioare:
(1) Somemanufacturersmaynotsuccessfullydevelopbrakepadscontaining
lessthan0.5%copperthatmeetallmanufacturing,cost,andcustomer
requirementssoonenoughtotransitionalloftheirproductsbytheabove
dates.
(2) Somemanufacturersmaydelaytransitionsuntillegaldeadlines.
(3) WashingtonStatemightprovidebroaderexemptionswhenitimplementsits
requirementforbrakepadstocontainlessthan0.5%copper,delayingthe
aftermarkettransitiontothelowestcopperbrakepads.
Thisscenarioisoptimistic.Itisincludedtoshowtheearliestreasonabledatesfor
achievementofbrakecopperreductions.
Scenario 2 – Two-Step Reduction
Virtuallyalloriginalequipment(newvehicle)brakepadsarereformulatedto<5%
copperbyJanuary1,2021and<0.5%copperby2025(CaliforniaSB346compliance
deadlines),withminimaluseofexemptionsandextensions.Virtuallyallhighercopper
aftermarket(replacement)brakepadsremainingininventoriesaresoldwithintwo
yearsofeachcompliancedate.
Thisscenarioassumesthatbrakepadmanufacturerswillimplementatwo-step
transitiontothelowestcopperbrakepads,basedonlegaldeadlines.Underthis
scenario,inthefirststepmanufacturerswouldreplacecurrenthighcopper
productswithproductscontaininglessthan5%copper.Themajorityof
manufacturerswoulddelayintroductionofproductswithlessthan0.5%copperfor
severalyears,whichwouldprovideadditionaltimefordevelopmentofformulations
containinglessthan0.5%copper.
April2016
The5%standardisincludedinCaliforniaandWashingtonlawsbecausewhenthe
lawswereadopted,brakepadmanufacturersindicatedthatmostcompanieswere
capableofproducingbrakepadsmeetingthe5%standard(BPP2008-2010).The
longtransitiontimeprovidedinthelawsbeforeallnewvehiclesarerequiredto
meetthe5%standardwastoprovideadequatetimeforre-engineeringofthe
brakingsystemsofeverynewvehiclethatcurrentlyuseshighercopperbrakepads
(MEMA2010).
Whenthelawswerepassed,manufacturersindicatedthatcompanieswouldneedto
developnewformulationapproachestoformulatebrakepadswithlessthan0.5%
copperwhilemeetingallmanufacturing,cost,andcustomerrequirements.
CaliforniaSB346providedanadditionalfouryearsafterthe5%standardtakes
effecttoprovideextratimeformanufacturerstodevelopthenewformulation
approaches.
CaliforniaSB346wasdesignedtoallowvehiclemanufacturerstore-engineer
vehiclebrakesystemsconcurrentwiththeirotherperiodicvehicleplatformreengineering,whichoccursaboutonceevery8yearsformostvehicles(BPP2008;
MEMA2010).Beforeanewlyre-engineeredbrakesystemreachesthemarket,the
brakesgothroughseveralyearsofengineeringdesign,productvalidations,and
performanceandsafetytestingbybrakepadmanufacturersandvehicle
manufacturers(BPP2008;MEMA2010).ThetimelinesinCaliforniaSB346
providedabout4yearsfortheseactivitiestobeconductedinparallelwith
formulationdevelopment(2010-2013),priortothesalesofthefirstre-engineered
lessthan5%copperbrakepadnewvehicles,whichunderthisscenario,was
assumedtooccur—andindeeddidoccur—nolaterthan2014.Becausethe
compliancedeadlineforbrakepadswithlessthen0.5%copperisonlyfouryears
afterthe5%deadline,within4yearsoftheintroductionofthelessthan5%copper
brakepadvehicles(2018),underthisscenario,manufacturersareassumedtobegin
introducingvehicleswithlessthan0.5%copperbrakepadsby2018soasto
completelyre-engineerallvehiclestomeetthe0.5%standardby2025.
Althoughtheoriginalequipmentbrakepadindustryappearstobeattemptingto
movedirectlytothelowestcopperbrakepads,itappears,basedonpublic
informationsummarizedinSection1,thatafewcompaniesarecurrentlybringing
brakepadslessthan5%copperbutmorethan0.5%coppertothemarketinorder
toprovidecustomerswithimmediateaccesstolowercopperbrakepads.The
fractionoftheoverallbrakepadmarketthatmakesatwo-steptransitionwill
largelybedeterminedbythesuccessofeachcompany’sproductformulatorsin
developinglessthan0.5%productsthatmeettheircompany’sandcustomer’s
manufacturing,cost,andperformancerequirements.
Foraftermarketbrakepads,thisscenarioisbasedontheassumptionthat
WashingtonStaterequirementswilldrivetheaftermarkettransition.
April2016
(1) Thisscenarioisnotconsistentwithearlyevidencesuggestingthatthe
originalequipmentbrakepadindustryappearstobeattemptingtomove
directlytothelowestcopperbrakepads(seeSection1).
(2) WashingtonStatemightprovidebroaderexemptionswhenitimplementsits
requirementforbrakepadstocontainlessthan0.5%copper,delayingthe
aftermarkettransitiontothelowestcopperbrakepads.
Scenario 3 – Aftermarket Exemption from 0.5% Copper Standard
Virtuallyalloriginalequipment(newvehicle)brakepadsarereformulatedto<5%
copperbyJanuary1,2021and<0.5%copperby2025(CaliforniaSB346compliance
deadlines),withminimaluseofexemptionsandextensions.Highercopper
aftermarket(replacement)brakepadsforvehiclesmanufacturedpriortocompliance
datescontinuetobesoldindefinitely.
Variant3A:Sincetheaftermarketexemptionforoldervehiclesisbasedon
thepremisethataftermarketbrakepadsshouldbedesignedtobesimilarto
theoriginalequipmentbrakepads,thisvariantassumesthataftermarket
brakepadsforpre-2025vehiclesthatoriginallyhavelowcopperorcopper
freebrakepadswillhavethesamecoppercontentastheoriginals.
Variant3B:SincetheCalifornialaw’saftermarketexemptiondoesnot
requireaftermarketbrakepadstobedesignedtobesimilartotheoriginal
equipmentbrakepad,thisvariantassumesthataftermarketbrakepad
installationsareunconstrainedbycoppercontent.Underthisscenario,
coppercontentforpre-2025vehiclesremainsunchangedafter2025,i.e.,that
aftermarketbrakepadscontaining<5%but>0.5%copper(“lowcopper”)
continuetobeavailableindefinitelyforpre-2025vehicles.
LikeScenario2,thisscenarioassumesthatoriginalequipmentbrakepad
manufacturerswillimplementatwo-steptransitiontothelowestcopperbrakepads
inaccordancewiththecompliancedatesinCaliforniaSB346.Whereitdiffersfrom
Scenario2isintheaftermarket.ThisscenarioassumesthatWashingtonState
deviatesfromthepolicyinitscurrentlawandprovidesabroadaftermarketbrake
padexemptionsimilartotheexemptioninCaliforniaSB346whenitimplementsits
requirementforbrakepadstocontainlessthan0.5%copper.Theexemptionin
CaliforniaSB346isapermanentexemptionforallaftermarketbrakepadsdesigned
tofitvehiclesmanufacturedpriortoCalifornia’scompliancedeadlinesin2021and
2025.Suchanexemptionwoulddelaytheaftermarkettransitiontothelowest
copperbrakepadsbyallowinghighcopperreplacementbrakepadstobesoldfor
vehiclesmanufacturedpriortocompliancedeadlines.
Underthisscenario,aftermarketbrakepadmanufacturerswouldmaintainthe
currentcoppercontentintheirbrakepadsthataremadeforuseinvehicles
manufacturedpriorto2021and2025.Thiswouldavoidtheneedfor
manufacturerstodeveloplowercopperbrakepadsthatmeetthesameperformance
characteristicsasthehighercopperbrakepads.Variant3Aassumesthatthe
April2016
industryfollowsitsstateddesignpreferenceofreplacing“likeforlike”brakepadsin
termsofcoppercontent.Variant3Bassumesthatthisstatedpracticeisnot
followed,perhapsbecausecopper-freeandcoppercontainingreplacementbrake
padsofferthesameperformancecharacteristics.Thiswouldmeanthatbrakepads
withcoppercontent<5%but>0.5%tobeusedinpre-2025vehiclesuntilthose
vehiclesarenolongerontheroad.
(1)
Thisscenarioisnotconsistentwithearlyevidencesuggestingthatthe
originalequipmentbrakepadindustryappearstobeattemptingtomove
directlytothelowestcopperbrakepads(seeSection1).
(2)
Whenestablishingregulatoryrequirements,statesordinarilyrelyonthe
precedentsestablishedintheirstate’sownauthorizinglegislation.
Thisscenarioispessimistic.Itisincludedtoshowthelatestreasonabledatesfor
achievementofbrakecopperreductionsandtoprovideinsightintothewater
qualityimplicationsofWashingtonDepartmentofEcology’supcomingdecision
aboutpotentialrequirementsthatallbrakepadscontain<0.5%copper.
April2016
Section5:Results
UsingtheassumptionsinSection3,copperreductionswereestimatedforthree
scenarios.AnattachedExcelspreadsheetcontainsthedetailedcalculations.
5.1 Estimation Approach
Reductionestimatesweremadeusingthepercentreductionapproach,i.e.,
estimatingreductioninthesource(brakepadcopper)andtranslatingthatsource
reductionintoitsassociatedurbanrunoffreduction.Thisstraightforwardapproach
isbasedonBPPmodeling,whichuseddetailedestimatesofallurbanrunoffcopper
sourcesandintricatemodelingtocreateanoverallaverageestimatedbrakepad
coppercontributiontototalcopperinrunofffromhighlyurbanizedwatersheds
(Donigian2009).
Anotherpossibleapproachforestimatingbrakepadcopperreleasereductions
involvesestimatingtheaveragebrakepadwearrateandmultiplyingthisestimate
withestimatedbrakepadcoppercontent(the“composition/wear”approach).The
BPPexploredthisground-upapproach,butabandoneditduetothehigh
uncertaintiesintheinputdataforwearrate,whichvariestremendouslyamongonroadvehiclesduetodifferencesinpadsizesamongvehicleclassesandvastly
differentwearratesamongbrakepadformulations(Rosselot2006a).TheBPPalso
exploredathirdestimationapproachbasedonbrakepadparticleemissionfactors
multipliedbyestimatedbrakepadcoppercontent(the“composition/emissions
factor”approach,butabandonedthisaswellbasedonthehighuncertaintiesinthe
inputvalues.Ultimately,theBPPestimatedbrakepadcopperreleasesfromvehicle
emissionsstudiesintunnels(wherefleetwideaveragereleasescanbecapturedand
quantified)andbrakepadweardebrisdistributiondatafromBPPlaboratorytests
(Rosselot2006a).TheBPP’sestimationapproach,involvedtwoseparateemissions
factors–anairemissionsfactorandaroademissionsfactor–thatweresummedto
estimatetotalcopperemissions.Theairemissionsfactor(fromtheone-time
vehicletunnelstudies),uniquelyandadvantageouslymeldedvehiclefleet-wide
averagecoppercontentandwearratesintoasinglevalue,reducinguncertainty.
TheBPPfoundthatallthreemethodsyieldedrelativelysimilarcopperrelease
estimates.
ThispercentreductionestimationapproachbasedonBPPmodelingprovidesbrake
padcoppercontentreductionsandestimatedcopperreductionsinurbanrunoff.
Theseestimatesarenotnecessarilytranslatabledirectlyintosurfacewatercopper
reductionestimates,astheydonotaccountforresponselagtimesinsurfacewaters,
whichmaybeaffectedbyaccumulatedcopperfrompastbrakeandnon-brake
discharges,coppersourcesotherthanurbanrunoff,rainfallvolumesandintensity,
andsite-specificwatershedconditionslikechannellength,shape,channelbottom
material,andsedimentloads(Donigian2009).
April2016
5.2 Results
Theestimatesincludethreesetsofvalues.First,theaveragecopperconcentration
inbrakepadsmanufacturedeachyearwasestimated.Usingthesedata,
replacementrates,inventoryturnoverrates,andvehiclefleetagedata,theon-road
averagebrakepadcopperconcentrationwasestimated.Finally,assumingthat
lowercopperconcentrationsinon-roadbrakepadsaredirectlyproportionalto
reductioninbakepadcopper’scontributiontourbanrunoffcoppercontent,the
urbanrunoffcopperreductionfrombrakepadsalonewasestimated.Toaccountfor
thewatershedlagtime,theurbanrunoffcopperreductionsareestimatedtooccur
oneyearafterthebrakepadcopperreductions.BasedonBPPmodeling,the
maximumurbanrunoffcopperreductionfrombrakepadsisabout61%.
Figures4through7andtables15through18presenttheestimatedaverageonroadbrakepadcoppercontent,theestimatedreductionascomparedto2013
(baseline)levels,andtheestimatedsubsequentreductionincopperlevelsinurban
runoff.Figures4and5includecoppercontentdatareportedtoWashington
Ecology(WashingtonDepartmentofEcology2015a).Figure5,whichfocusesonthe
currentdecade,showsthatactualreductiontrendsarefallingbetweenScenarios1
and2,suggestingthatmanymanufacturersaremakingaone-stepreductiontothe
lowestcopperbrakepadformulations,insteadofcreating“low-copper”interim
products.
April2016
Figure4.AverageBrakePadCopperContentbyYearManufactured:
ReportedDataComparedtoEstimates
ComparedtoEstimates(Baselinethrough2019)
April2016
Figure6.On-RoadBrakePadCopperContentProjections
Figure7.UrbanRunoffCopperReductionProjections
April2016
Table15.Scenario1–EstimatedCopperReductions
Scenario1–One-StepReduction
Manufactured
AverageBrake
PadCopper
On-Road
AverageBrake
PadCopper
EstimatedBrake
PadCopper
Reduction
EstimatedUrban
RunoffCopper
Reductionfrom
BrakePadsAlone
Baseline(2013
andprioryears)
7.2%
7.2%
--
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
6.2%
5.4%
4.5%
3.6%
2.7%
1.8%
0.9%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
6.9%
4.1%
0.6%
0.05%
0.05%
4%
44%
92%
99%
99%
2.8%
27.0%
57.0%
61.6%
61.6%
Year*
*Estimationyearsarehighlighted.
April2016
Table16.Scenario2–EstimatedCopperReductions
Scenario2–Two-StepReduction
Manufactured
AverageBrake
PadCopper
On-Road
AverageBrake
PadCopper
EstimatedBrake
PadCopper
Reduction
EstimatedUrban
RunoffCopper
Reductionfrom
BrakePadsAlone
Baseline(2013
andprioryears)
7.2%
7.2%
--
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
6.5%
5.8%
5.1%
4.5%
3.6%
2.7%
1.8%
0.9%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
6.9%
4.7%
1.4%
0.2%
0.05%
3%
34%
80%
97%
99%
2.2%
21.3%
49.8%
60.3%
61.6%
Year*
April2016
Table17.Scenario3a–EstimatedCopperReductions
Scenario3a-AftermarketExemption(Like-for-LikeReplacement)
Year*
Manufactured
AverageBrake
PadCopper**
On-Road
AverageBrake
PadCopper
EstimatedBrake
PadCopper
Reduction
Baseline(2013
andprioryears)
7.2%
7.2%
--
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
6.5%
5.8%
5.1%
4.5%
2.6%
1.4%
1.1%
0.7%
0.5%
6.9%
4.6%
1.6%
0.9%
0.5%
3%
36%
77%
88%
93%
EstimatedUrban
RunoffCopper
Reductionfrom
BrakePadsAlone
2.2%
22.1%
47.9%
54.6%
57.7%
**Duetocomputationaleffortrequired,notestimatedforallyears.
April2016
Table18.Scenario3b–EstimatedCopperReductions
Scenario3b-AftermarketExemption(UnconstrainedReplacement)
Year*
Manufactured
AverageBrake
PadCopper
On-Road
AverageBrake
PadCopper
EstimatedBrake
PadCopper
Reduction
Baseline(2013
andprioryears)
7.2%
7.2%
--
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
6.5%
5.8%
5.1%
4.5%
3.7%
2.9%
2.2%
1.4%
1.3%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
6.9%
4.7%
1.8%
1.2%
1.2%
3%
34%
75%
84%
84%
EstimatedUrban
RunoffCopper
Reductionfrom
BrakePadsAlone
2.2%
21.2%
46.4%
51.9%
52.0%
April2016
5.3 Comparison to Washington Department of Ecology Estimates
WashingtonDepartmentofEcologyusedthewearrateapproachtoestimatethe
brakepadcopperreleasereductionthatwouldoccurifallon-roadvehicleshad
brakepadsmanufacturedin2021(WashingtonDepartmentofEcology2013).
Theseestimatesonlyexaminedcopperreleasesintotheenvironment—notthe
ultimatereductionsinurbanrunoff.Theestimationscenarioispurelytheoretical,
sincebrakepadsacrossthevehiclefleetarereplacedaboutevery3-5years(see
Table9).BecauseWashingtonassumedthatonlybrakepadcoppercontentwould
change(wearrateandvehiclemilestraveledwereheldconstant),Washington’s
reductionestimateeffectivelyestimatedreductioninmanufacturedbrakepad
copperascomparedtoits2011baselinedata.
Washingtonestimatedaboutan87%reductioninthecoppercontentofbrakepads
manufacturedin2021ascomparedtothosemanufacturedin2011.Thisreduction
estimateisconsistentwiththemanufacturedbrakepadcoppercontentreduction
estimatedinScenario2(seeTable19).
Table19.EstimatedAverageCopperContentofBrakePadsManufacturedin2021:
ComparisonamongScenarios1-3andWashingtonEcologyEstimate
Scenario
BaselineCopper
Content
2021Copper
Content
Estimated
Reduction
1
7.2%
0.05%
99%
2
7.2%
0.9%
87%
3a
7.2%
1.4%
81%
3b
7.2%
1.4%
81%
Washington
Ecology
[Variesbyvehicletype]
87%
Source:Tables14-17andWashingtonDepartmentofEcology2013.
5.4 Uncertainties
Althougheveryeffortwasmadetodevelopscenariosthatbrackettherangeof
possiblecopperreductionschedulesandtobasereductionestimatesonreasonable
assumptions,theseestimatesmaynotaccountforallpossibilities.Forexample,if
highcopperbrakepadscontinuetobeusedinthesmallpopulationsofexempted
vehicles(e.g.,motorcycles),theultimatereductionlevelscouldbeslightlylessthan
theanticipatedmaximumreductionof61%.Intherelativelyunlikelyeventthat
CaliforniaDTSCallowssubstantialextensions,thepaceofreductionscouldbe
slowerthanestimatedinanyofthescenarios.
Althoughtheseestimatesarebasedonthebestavailableinformation,theyare
uncertain.Themostsignificantuncertaintiesareinbrakepadcoppercontent
(particularlymarketvolumesforeachbrakepadcoppercontentlevel,whichare
unavailable),futurechangesinvehiclemilestraveled,andwatershedresponse
April2016
times.Asthebrakepadreformulationprocessunfolds,additionaldatawillbecome
availablefromWashingtonStatethatwillreducetheuncertaintiesinbrakepad
coppercontentestimates.
Theseestimatesaredesignedtocoverordinary,highlyurbanizedCalifornia
watersheds.Theydonotaddresswatershedsunusuallocalcoppersources(e.g.,
marineantifoulingpaintremovalactivities,coppermines),wherebrakepad-related
copperreductionswouldbelower.
5.5 Monitoring Progress
Inthelongterm,ambientmonitoringdatawillreflectbrakepadcopperreductions.
BasedontheprojectionsinFigure7,reductionswilllikelybetoosmalltomeasure
untilthe2020s.Measuringreductionswillrequirearobustlong-termmonitoring
programwithsufficientsamplestodifferentiatecopperreductionsfromordinary
variabilityinenvironmentalsamples.TheCaliforniaStateWaterBoardSurface
WaterAmbientMonitoringProgramStreamPollutionTrendsProgram(SWAMP
SPoT)intends(assumingfundingremainsavailable)toprovidelong-term
measurementsofcopperreductionsinsedimentsfromCaliforniaurbanwatersheds.
SWAMPSPoT’srobustmonitoringplan,whichincludesseveraldozensites
influencedbyurbanrunoff,usedstatisticalpoweranalysistodeterminesufficient
samplingfrequencyformeasuringanticipatedreductions.6Itslong-termbaseline
dataset,combinedwithitsrelativelylargenumberofsamplingsites,putsthis
programintheuniquepositiontoidentifytrendsearlyandtrackthemeffectively.
6Watershedcopperreductionswereestimatedonthebasisofanearlierversionofthesereduction
predictions(Moran2013).
April2016
Section6:Conclusions
Newly manufactured vehicle brake pads contain, on average, significantly
less copper than they did in the early 2010s.
Brakepadsavailabletodayhaveanaveragecoppercontentofabout5.6%,a32%
reductionascomparedtotheBPP2006estimateanda22%reductionascompared
toWashington’s2011baselinedata.
In mid-2015, 44% of brake pad formulations contained <0.5% copper.
Thelowestcoppercontentbrakepadsarewidelyavailable,bothintheoriginal
equipmentandaftermarkets.
Brake pads manufactured in 2021 are expected to contain 81-99% less
copper than they did in the early 2010s.
By2019,newlymanufacturedbrakepadsareexpectedtocontain60%to75%less
copperthantheydidatthestartofthisdecade.
BasedonbrakepadcoppercontentdatareportedtoWashingtonDepartmentof
Ecology,theactualreductiontrendappearstobefallingbetweenthemost
optimisticone-stepreduction(Scenario1)andthetwo-stepreduction(Scenario2).
Underallscenarios,thepaceofreductionsisanticipatedtoslowafter2020,when
allhigh-copperbrakepadswillbeoutofthemarket.
On-road brake pad copper content is dropping, but more slowly than
manufactured brake pad copper content. A 35% to 43% reduction in onroad brake copper content should occur by 2019.
Theslowerpaceofon-roadbrakepadcopperreductionsisduetothecombination
ofbrakepads’threetofiveyearaveragelifetimesonvehiclesandtheinventory
turnovertimesatwholesalersandretailers
Due to the slower change in on-road brakes and watershed lag times, urban
runoff copper levels are slower. They are anticipated to drop by 21-27% by
2020 and by 46-57% by 2024.
Becauseenvironmentalmonitoringdatahavenaturalvariability,itislikelythatthe
urbanwatershedresponsetobrakepadcopperreductionrequirementswillfirstbe
measurableinthemid-2020s.
April2016
Washington State’s upcoming decision about implementing requirements
that all brake pads contain <0.5% copper has important water quality
implications in California and the rest of the nation.
Duetothenatureofthevehiclepartssupplychain,thesamebrakepadsaresold
acrossallofNorthAmerica.Consequently,onestate’sregulatoryrequirements
affecttheentirenation.WashingtonStatehasthemostrestrictiveapproachto
aftermarketexemptions.ThedifferencebetweenScenario2andScenario3
predictionsshowtheimportanceofWashington’scontinuationofitsapproachto
exemptionsforaftermarketbrakepadsforoldervehicles.
IfWashingtonmaintainsitscurrentapproachandfollowsitslegislativeprecedent,
fullurbanrunoffcopperreductionsareexpectedtobeachievedintheearly2030s.
IfWashington’sapproachweretodivergefromitsprecedents,thepaceofreduction
wouldstarttodropoffintheearly2020s.By2028therewouldbeasmuchasa
15%differencebetweencopperreductionswithanarrowaftermarketexemption
andcopperreductionswithabroadaftermarketexemption.Intheworstcase
(Scenario3b),fullreductionsmightneverbeachieved.Thesedifferencesmayhave
implicationsforcompliancewithwaterqualitystandardsandachievementofTotal
MaximumDailyLoads(TMDLs).
April2016
Section7:Recommendations
Recommendation 1: Share these projections with Washington State and
with the vehicle industry.
WashingtonStatewillsoonmakeadecisionaboutimplementingrequirementsthat
allbrakepadscontain<0.5%copper.Washington’slawdelegatesthisdecisionto
theWashingtonDepartmentofEcology.Throughitsthreescenarios,thisreport
estimatesthedifferenceinwaterqualityoutcomesthatcouldoccurasa
consequenceoftheWashingtondecision.IfWashingtoncontinues,asexpected,to
followitslegislativeprecedent,whichhasanarrowaftermarketexemption(only
brakepadssuppliedtodealersunderan“originalequipmentservicecontract”are
exempt),Scenarios1and2wouldprovidethebestprojectionsoffuturecopper
reductions.IfWashingtonunexpectedlyabandonsitsprecedent—andoffersa
broadexemptionforaftermarketpartsforpre-2025vehicles,Scenarios3aand3b
illustratethatthepaceofcopperreductionwouldbesignificantlyslowerandtotal
reductionsby2032wouldbelower.
Recommendation 2: Update these copper reduction estimates in 2018
using data from implementation of California SB 346 and Washington State
law.
WashingtonState’scollectionofbrakepadformulationdataprovidesanongoing
trackingofbrakepadcoppercontent.Updatedinformationcanbeusednotonlyto
updatetheestimates,butalsotorefinetheassumptionstoreduceuncertaintiesin
thecopperreductionestimates.TheWashingtondatasetlinkstobrakepad
certificationsthatexpireevery3years.Mostcurrentcertificationsexpirein2016or
2017.Thefirstsetofcertificationsin2013-14likelyincludedeveryformulationin
themarketplaceatthattime,includingmanyformulationsdevelopedlongbefore
adoptionofcopperrestrictions.Bythetimetheseformulationsareupforrenewal
in2016-17,manufacturersmayhavesufficientupdatedformulationstoabandon
legacyhighcopperproducts.Anupdatein2018wouldreflectthesechangesand
couldincludesufficientadditionalnewinformationtoprovideameaningfulupdate
tothese2015estimates.
Recommendation 3: Use the California State Water Board “SWAMP SPoT”
sediment monitoring to track brake pad copper reductions.
Measuringreductionswillrequirearobustlong-termmonitoringprogramwith
sufficientsamplestodifferentiatecopperreductionsfromordinaryvariabilityin
environmentalsamples.TheCaliforniaStateWaterBoardSurfaceWaterAmbient
MonitoringProgramSedimentPollutionTrendsProgram(SWAMPSPoT)hasthe
uniquecapacitytotrackthesetrends.
April2016
Recommendation 4: Use the urban runoff copper reduction estimates in
this report, in combination with local data, for urban runoff management
planning purposes, doing so in a manner that recognizes that uncertainties
in the estimates and unique local watershed characteristics.
Thisreportwaspreparedtoprovideinformationtosupporturbanrunoff
managementplanning.Usinglocalmonitoringdataandknowledgeofwatershed
characteristics,bothwaterqualityregulatorsandtheregulatedcommunitycanuse
theestimatesinthisreporttosupportdevelopmentofquantitativelocalcopper
reductionprojectionsandtoexaminethemagnitudeandtimingofanticipated
vehiclebrakepadcopperreductionsinrelationshiptotargetsinlocalandregional
plans(e.g.,copperTMDLs).Organizationsusingthesedatashouldevaluatethe
applicabilityoftheseestimatestotheirspecificwatershedscarefullyandshould
recognizetheuncertaintiesinherentintheseestimatesaswellastheirgeneric
nature.Useoftheseestimatesshouldbeaccompaniedbyanexaminationofthe
watershedforthepresenceofanyunusuallocalcoppersources(e.g.,marine
antifoulingpaintremovalactivities,coppermines).
April2016
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Estimated Urban Runoff Copper Reductions Resulting

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