Interviews

Transcription

Interviews

EUROPE
GRI
SUMMIT
2015
Q&A
INTERVIEW WITH REAL ESTATE LEADERS ON :
European Real Estate
RALPH WINTER
DAVIDE ALBERTINI
PETRONI
JAN WILLEM
WATTEL
General Manager
RISANAMENTO Italy
Managing Director
CERBERUS GLOBAL
INVESTMENTS Netherlands
RALF NÖCKER
GAGIK ADIBEKYAN
MICHEL VAUCLAIR
MD, Head of RE
Investment Europe
MACQUARIE
INFRASTRUCTURE AND REAL
ASSETS (EUROPE) UK
Chairman
RD GROUP Russia
Chairman
OPG COMMERCIAL
RE EUROPE UK
Founder
CORESTATE CAPITAL AG
Switzerland
French Real Estate
JON RICKERT
Head of Real Estate Finance
RENSHAW BAY UK
ROELIE VAN
WIJK-RUSSCHEN
PATRICE GENRE
Chief Executive Officer
TKP INVESTMENTS
Netherlands
President
LA FRANÇAISE REAL
ESTATE PARTNERS
France
OMAR KOLEILAT
GEORGII IVANOV
CÉDRIC DUJARDIN
COE
CRESTYL GROUP
Czech Republic
Managing Director
TRINFICO INVESTMENT
GROUP Russia
Head of France
DEUTSCHE BANK
France
On 10, 11 September, the 18th annual GRI Europe Summit will be gathering the most senior level real estate investors, developers and lenders in Europe and will be focusing on pan European issues, opportunities and trends in Paris.
For more information, visit: www.globalrealestate.org/europe2015
Q&A
RALPH WINTER
Founder
Investments into Europe remain strong, despite the drama of a Grexit, UK referendum,
Russia. How much bearing will such uncertainties have on real estate activities in Europe going forward?
R.W.: It is difficult to predict what development Greece will go through or what direction
the recovery of the Spanish economy will take,
and it will certainly not be without challenges.
One challenge could indeed include political changes such as regulations brought by a
new government. However, you would have to
weigh the strengths and opportunities of a given market against its weaknesses and threats
with any kind of investment. For us for example the opportunities outweigh the threats
that we see on the Spanish real estate market.
Facts such as pending property sales worth 40
billion euros at drastic discounts over the next
15 years by the bad bank Sareb, or the virtually
CORESTATE CAPITAL AG
flat-lining construction activity, suggest high
potential.
UK and Germany are investment magnets.
Which other markets hold the best opportunities at the moment in your view?
R.W.: Spain for example is now the only country other than UK to draw capital from all global
regions. The Spanish real estate market shows
good potential and initial yields are clearly
above the European average. Housing Price Index and land prices are at a historic low and developments are almost non-existent. Therefore
we are focusing on development projects in
Spain, where other investors have only the capabilities to acquire operating rental assets, but
we develop them ourselves. This investment
profile makes a lot of sense since the sector has
experienced a general reluctance to invest and
subsequent lack of funding for several years.
Exit Strategies, Raising funds, identifying product, finding the right partners - What is your
biggest challenge?
R.W.: The biggest challenge nowadays for us
is to find product. But our strength lies in the
fast recognition of market niches and luckily
we are in a position to find attractive opportunities, even today. The biggest mistake you
can make as an investor is to hold on to established business models without adjusting the
variables. Especially with fast changing market
conditions and global money flows you need to
be flexible, because it is crucial to adapt a given
investment to the latest market conditions. In
addition our firm’s success lies in its unique international investment and asset management
platform that delivers local operating capabilities and, ultimately, value creation to the assets
in which the firm invests.
Join Ralph, Adam, David, Jan, Jon, Roelie, Ralf, Gagik, Michel, Omar, Georgii, Patrice and Cédric at the upcoming GRI Europe Summit in Paris on 10-11 September to further discuss these topics, and more,
amongst fellow investors, developers, property companies and lenders.
To see who’s participating and more topics of discussions, visit: www.globalrealestate.org/europe2015
Q&A
DAVIDE ALBERTINI PETRONI
General Manager
Investments into Europe remain strong,
despite the drama of a Grexit, UK referendum,
D.A.P.: Generally, uncertainty is the investors’
foe and makes them nervous. The quantitative easing programme made by ECB, seems
to reduce the risks of the geopolitical turmoil,
contributing to the short – term interest rates
close to zero and a weak euro currency, helping
to awash with capital the Eurozone. Then, Europe is home to a diversified range of markets
and cities and European domestic demand remains high boosted by an improving purchase
power and an increasing bank lending. I don’ t
see a relevant impact on real estate sector.
There is also the end of the lose money
looming. How does that eventuality impact your
investment strategy?
RISANAMENTO
D.A.P.: We as a company have an investment
strategy being geographically focused and in
the longer term, therefore not affected by the
current events.
and cities, embracing more risks just to seek
higher returns. Southern markets, notably Spain
and Italy, lead the up turn this year with volumes up an estimated 40%.
Only a few see a property bubble in Europe?
Where do you stand?
Exit Strategies, Raising funds, identifying
product, finding the right partners - What is
your biggest challenge?
D.A.P.: The stock market volatility, the fears of
a deflation and a limited economy growth push
to a stronger demand for properties, due to
its relative high yield and risk profile. All the
more, the shortage of core assets should make
the investors worried.
D.A.P.: We are developer and therefore identifying right products for the future real estate
market and finding the right partners to carry
on the projects remain our biggest challenge.
D.A.P.: Demand for core assets in primary
markets remains significant , albeit the yield
compression, but the investors are focusing on
value add opportunities in second tier markets
Q&A
JAN WILLEM WATTEL
Managing Director
J.W.W.: Not much as we have seen so far.
It even looks now that the Euro will survive
a Grexit, since the problem looks contained.
Besides, real estate investors have only choice
between North America, Europe and selected
cities in Asia, so for allocation reasons already,
they will not leave at least Western-Europe.
CERBERUS GLOBAL INVESTMENTS
Where do you stand?
J.W.W.: Prime office and retail investments in
the crisis only became more or remained expensive at yields around 5%; one sees the second best locations coming back in sound markets. A normal reaction after an economic crisis,
so there is no bubble also given the allocation
given to real estate investments.
J.W.W.: Countries with a sound real estate
market depending on the re category and with
a balanced government budget.
Q&A
JON RICKERT
Head of Real Estate Finance
J.R.: Geopolitical events have played an important role in defining market activity. The
best evidence of this is the London real estate
market which is viewed as a safe haven from a
lot of the drama. Unfortunately, the geopolitical
dramas to which you refer do not appear to be
going away any time soon. The longer the period of uncertainty the greater the impact.
There is also the end of the lose money looming.
How does that eventuality impact your
J.R.: Central bank intervention has Inflated asset prices across all markets. The longer these
conditions continue the more pain we are likely
RENSHAW BAY
to experience during the transition to markets
functioning without such intervention. At this
point we think that transition is manageable,
and the sooner it happens the better.
Where do you stand?
J.R.: No bubble at the moment. The availability
of credit for real estate, a key driver in the development of the last bubble, remains well below peak levels experienced in 2007. However,
if asset prices continue to adapt to the current
level of interest rates and interest rates remain
abnormally low for an extended period, the risk
of a bubble will grow.
ties at the moment in your view?
J.R.: Finding the right product at the right
price – staying away from the most closely
fought deals.
Which other markets hold the best
opportunities at the moment in your view?
J.R.: UK and Germany are investment magnets.
Which other markets hold the best opportuni-
Q&A
ROELIE VAN WIJK-RUSSCHEN
R.V.W.: It’s pretty uncertain what the impact
of a Grexit on the real estate market would be.
In terms of pricing, it’s imaginable that a Grexit,
together with the risk of further financial stress
in other Southern European countries, will result in a continuing low interest rate environment in Western Europe. This would drive initial
yields down, because investor demand will shift
from traditional fixed income instruments to
real assets that provide a stable income stream.
During the last few years, infrastructure and real
estate investments enjoyed a growing interest
and have been considered as a substitute for
bonds. As a consequence, real estate prices
would stick to their current high levels when-
TKP INVESTMENTS
ever a Grexit would result in a continuing low
interest rate environment.
stantial economic growth are hard to be seen.
That is at least a confusing situation.
The impact of a Grexit on the occupational
market is more difficult to predict. The impact
will be delayed and the negative effects will
be visible after at least one or two years. If one
assumes that a Grexit will result in a continuous
low growth environment in Europe, further job
cuts and a decrease in retail demand should
be expected. This would hurt rents and income
streams going forward.
Where do you stand?
There is also the end of the lose money
looming. How does that eventuality impact your
R.V.W.: No clear view on this unfortunately.
Hopefully, a clear solution for Greece is concluded shortly. Because of QE, a lot of money
flows into financial markets which drives security prices up. On the other hand, signs of sub-
R.V.W.: Indeed, we don’t see a bubble on the
occupational market. On the other hand, in
many core real estate markets entry yields went
down quite significantly anticipating economic
and rental growth going forward. Only the US
can be seen as a market where yield compression could be justified by strong occupational
demand. In many markets and sectors anticipated rental growth has been priced into current
transaction prices. This observation is, however,
not only applicable to real estate markets. Most
financial markets seem to be expensive nowadays which proves the added value of diversification over multiple asset categories.
Continue on the next page...
Q&A
ROELIE VAN WIJK-RUSSCHEN
R.V.W: Yes indeed, a lot of attention is devoted to Germany and the UK. TKP Investments
( TKPI) concludes that other real estate markets
and sectors are attractive as well. A sounding
example is the Dutch residential market that
suffered from political uncertainty about anticipated changes in the leasing regulation during last few years. This topic has been solved.
Furthermore, residential yields went up after
the Global Financial Crisis. Nowadays, there is
room for yield compression during the next few
years. Furthermore, if you take into account that
residential investments offer a stable dividend
stream, it’s fair to conclude that residential investments are quite popular amongst Dutch
pension schemes.
Another positive example is the European
TKP INVESTMENTS
logistic market. As soon as European economic
growth really takes off, the demand for modern
logistic buildings will increase. A further boost
of logistic demand will be provided by the increase of online sales.
Although the Nordic real estate market may be
priced quite aggressively, TKPI still considers active managed Nordic investments as attractive.
Especially when investments are being done
alongside well-informed local partners.
and opportunistic managers going forward.
Only the ones that showed ongoing skill are
part of the TKPI investment universe for value
add and opportunistic categories.
Another challenge is to diversify in terms of vintage years. During periods of uncertainty, like
today, it’s important to spread your investments
over time and to diversify in terms of vintage
years. You shouldn’t put your money at work
during a short time period. The cliché of not
putting all eggs in the same basket proved its’
truth again. History has shown that a good mix
of vintage years pays off.
R.V.W.: It’s a challenge to find real estate fund
managers that stick to their believes and don’t
show signs of style drift. This is especially applicable to value add and opportunistic fund
managers. For that reason TKPI has decided to
team-up with a limited amount of value add
Q&A
RALF NÖCKER
Managing Director, Head of Real Estate Investment Europe
R.N.: Property has for a long time being seen
as a safe haven in uncertain times, and I think
that this very much holds true at present. Features such as implicit and explicit inflation
protection, downside protection through alternative use and the low correlation to other,
traded asset classes make property a compelling investment case. With the US being clearly
over-bought, and Asia volatile in place, Europe
presents best value
R.N.: We believe that QE in Europe still has
MACQUARIE INFRASTRUCTURE AND REAL ASSETS (EUROPE)
some time to run, and that the current events
actually prolong it. In the US, people have consistently underestimated the power, and time
aspect of QE. Having said this, we have calibrated our investment strategy to focus on niches
which have not (ye) been over-bought, feature
strong tenants from the “real” economy and
which are therefore well protected.
Where do you stand?
R.N.: There are certain submarkets and asset classes where price appreciation has been
unprecedented, and where capital values are
now at historical heights. In some cases, that is
justified by paradigm shifts (witness the rise of
prime retail in global gateway cities), but other
rallies look unsustainable. Our core skill is to
choose and pick the right corners and execute
smart transactions, even if these might appear
contrarian at first notice.
R.N: At Macquarie, we are generally excited
about CEE, with Poland, Czeck and Slovakia
showing fantastic fundamentals and convergence potential. Italy is another, fundamentally
healthy market with great potential.
R.N: Finding the right deal in the right niche
at the right time – capital and partners are
plentiful at present.
Q&A
GAGIK ADIBEKYAN
Chairman
G.A.: Talking about investments in Europe it
should not be regarded as a homogeneous
market for investments. Each country has its
own specific character. Alongside with that,
such economic and political alliance as the European Union being established, mainly, for the
purpose of economic integration, has advantageous instruments for settlement of difficulties
occurring in particular countries. Over the years
of its existence, this institution has more than
once demonstrated its resources and capabilities. Notwithstanding the situation with Greece,
Scotland, and Russia, we do not see system risks
capable of radical changing the existing situation in the European market in the mid- and
RD GROUP
long-term with high probability. Our company
has been functioning in substantially less stable market of Russia for the last 20 years, and
performance figures of our projects witness the
ability of being successful even in such conditions”.
G.A.: Development in the property market – is
a risk always. That is why every investor finds
a niche and a market for himself meeting his
ideas about income and risk ratio. Our portfolio is based on core and core+ projects; at the
same time, in the European market we review
and implement opportunistic projects, because
such projects in particular let us approach the
market and be conscious of processes occurring inside it.
Where do you stand?
G.A.: Let’s take London market, for example.
For several years already we can hear about the
last frontier after which the “bubble” will burst,
but nothing happens. To a greater degree, such
events depend on a number of macroeconomic
factors and if they are stable – do not wait for
catastrophe.
G.A: Some cities in markets of Austria and
Spain offer opportunities for opportunistic projects with the annual earning power approximately 20%.
Q&A
GAGIK ADIBEKYAN
Chairman
RD GROUP
G.A: Sufficient deal of interest should be paid
to each such category in any project in any
market, and then the project will turn out to be
successful. We think that in the real property,
alongside with a famous axiomatic statement
“location, location and location”, there is another equally important face of success: correct
product concept. Combining these two factors
all other tasks will be settled much easier.
Q&A
MICHEL VAUCLAIR
Chairman
M.V.: European real estate investment markets
remain very strong, with little sign that the
uncertainty around Greece and other macro
events is feeding into sentiment or pricing
as yet – however, it is early days and we remain vigilant. If volatility in the bond markets
remains high and bond yields move out, we
would expect real estate yields to follow suit,
although in the short-term markets such as
London should benefit from a renewed flight to
safety. The impact on the occupational side is
harder to gauge but could be more significant,
especially as it relates to the UK EU referendum.
OPG COMMERCIAL RE EUROPE
M.V.: Central bank liquidity and low global interest rates have been major drivers behind the
weight of capital and positive returns that we
have seen in recent years. As this unwinds, we
expect the markets to face significant challenges, especially for secondary product or where
you do not have the underlying economic and
rental growth to support current asset valuations. For this reason we are focused on prime
assets in major gateway cities where we can
add value through our development and asset
management expertise.
Where do you stand?
believe European property still offers good value on a relative basis, largely because we are at
an earlier stage of the economic recovery and
because we expect European central bank support to continue further into the cycle.
M.V: Within Europe, London remains our
primary focus market due to its growth prospects. However, we also believe that there are
interesting opportunities in Paris, especially for
good quality modern office stock close to major
transportation nodes and in the high street retail space.
M.V.: Talk of an asset bubble is relative – all
global assets classes are overvalued today relative to their fundamentals due to excess liquidity in the system and very low interest rates. We
Q&A
MICHEL VAUCLAIR
Chairman
OPG COMMERCIAL RE EUROPE
M.V: The current market environment presents a number of challenges – the biggest is
remaining patient and disciplined around strategy and pricing and taking a long-term view.
Q&A
OMAR KOLEILAT
CEO
O.K.: I believe that although real estate as
such is a mid to long term type of investment,
we will remain for the coming several years in
situations where deals can break at the last moment, as final decisions (IC or other) are done
only at the last moment. No decision process is
a mere admin process. In this period, although
we do a see a high recovery for RE apetite, the
saying that the deal is only done when signed
and sealed (and paid) cannot be more true.
O.K.: I do not think that there is an end loom-
CRESTYL GROUP
ing only with the turbulences it is becomes
more or less selective, but will remain relatively
cheap. So the strategy is to invest in dominant
schemes.
Where do you stand?
O.K.: I stand with the “few”.
and how this can effect individuals that are
making decisions, at every level of a project’s
process (Finacing/ tenants/ other). I believe a
person can expect surprises at any moment,
but unlike the 2008-2010 period, you do then
find alternatives .
Therefor it is times where a person should continuously have a plan B.
O.K.: I am bias, but I strongly believe in CEE,
I feel the cap rate gap is much wider than the
risk attached especially in Czech and Poland
that show robust economies.
O.K.: Challenges are the macro turbulences,
Q&A
GEORGII IVANOV
Managing Director
Russia. How much bearing will such uncertainties
have on real estate activities in Europe going forward?
G.I.: These factors definitely increase uncertainty
and risk in property investments, especially for
those who target the mentioned markets. However, we believe the level of cross-border investment into core urban markets in EU will be less
affected. The adverse effects of Grexit, Brexit and
the Russian factor are not truly perceived as fundamental and many investors are keen to adjust.
Of those three Brexit is seen as potentially the
most impactful factor. But the expectation that
Britain really steps out of the EU is very low and
is seen by many as a rather low probability stress
scenario.
TRINFICO INVESTMENT GROUP
G.I.: Our strategy has always been a combination
of value add and core with significant effort and
measures directed to loss aversion and risk management. In the improving market conditions we
don’t plan to increase exposure to riskier investments and we will stick with our original investment strategy.
Where do you stand?
G.I.: With record low interest rates and liquidity
on healthy levels there is always a risk of overheating. Some markets show very sharp property
price increases over recent years (London, Geneva, Munich, Tel Aviv, etc.). To that end we cannot
completely eliminate the possibility of a property
bubble elsewhere. However, the reasons for drastic price increases has to be considered in concert
with specific supply and demand factors on each
market. Some locations such as for instance London and Tel Aviv have large physical constraints
for building activity that cause sharper price increases as soon as demand recovers and this may
not necessarily be a sign of a bubble.
UK and Germany are investment magnets. Which
other markets hold the best
G.I.: Well-performing secondary markets such
as Munich, Madrid, Vienna and even higher yielding markets in Southern and emerging Europe
backed by stronger economies (Milano, Torino,
Croatia, Czech Republic).
product, finding the right partners - What is your
biggest challenge?
G.I.: Deal entry/finding partners and exit opportunities/strategies bear the highest uncertainty.
PATRICE GENRE
President
Taux de rendements qui se resserrent, économie
morose, où voyez-vous les grands défis de cette
fin d’année?
P.G.: La compression des taux de rendement
depuis 2 ans est effectivement impressionnante. Néanmoins les taux de rendement de
l’immobilier se sont compressés beaucoup
moins que les taux obligataires et les prix n’ont
pas flambé comme les actions en bourse donc
je suis confiant sur la solidité du marché de
l’investissement. Concernant le marché locatif,
on constate un début de reprise de l’activité en
France qui aura un impact direct sur le marché
locatif notamment à Paris et sa
première couronne.
LA FRANÇAISE REAL ESTATE PARTNERS
Quelles sont pour vous les grandes tendances
sur le marché de l’investissement français?
Quels sont vos principaux objectifs au GRI
France & Europe Summit cette année?
P.G.: Le marché de l’investissement immobilier
est très compétitif pour les produits de qualité
(bien localisés et bien loués). Mais c’est normal
car on assiste à un ‘flight to quality’. Ce que je
ne comprends pas c’est que des immeubles
secondaires et notamment à restructurer ou
présentant des états locatifs risqués trouvent
acheteurs à des prix proche des immeubles
core. Cela me laisse perplexe.
P.G.: Echanger sur nos visions respectives du
marché immobilier. Trouver de nouvelles idées.
Entretenir mes relations et rencontrer de nouvelles personnes.
Rejoignez Ralph, Adam, David, Jan, Jon, Roelie, Ralf, Gagik, Michel, Omar, Georgii ainsi que Patrice lors du prochain GRI France – Co localisé avec le GRI Europe Summit – à Paris les 10 & 11 Septembre prochains afin de discuter de ces
différents sujets et bien d’autres encore avec l’ensemble des plus hauts dirigeants des sociétés d’investissements, banques et promoteurs immobiliers.
Pour plus d’informations sur nos participants & sujets de discussions, visitez: www.globalrealestate.org/europe2015
Q&A
CÉDRIC DUJARDIN
Head of France DEUTSCHE BANK
Taux de rendements qui se resserrent, économie
morose, Où voyez-vous les grands défis cette
année?
Paris, encore Paris, toujours Paris, quelles
opportunités voyez-vous sur le projet du Grand
Paris.
C.D.: Je pense que le grand défi du moment
repose sur l’écart considérable qui se creuse entre
un marché de l’investissement euphorique dans
lequel chaque trimestre qui passe voit les taux se
compresser de pratiquement 25 bips tandis que
le marché locatif semble toujours aussi tendu
et le taux de vacance difficilement se résorber.
Une petite réserve toutefois sur le marché locatif
des immeubles de qualité où un frémissement
commence à se faire sentir. Nous sommes donc
particulièrement attentif au suivi de nos locataires
et de leurs contraintes sur nos actifs sous gestion.
Sur l’investissement, nous nous efforçons de ne
pas perdre de vue les fondamentaux immobiliers
moins sensibles aux effets de cycle.
C.D.: Là encore, nous sommes vigilants
aux contraintes des utilisateurs. De belles
opportunités vont naître du Grand Paris mais il ne
faut pas oublier de rester dans un espace-temps
raisonnable. Même un investisseur long-terme
ne se projette pas en se disant qu’il y aura une
nouvelle station de métro dans 10 ans. Le plus
grand intérêt du grand Paris selon moi serait
de faire bouger les frontières intellectuelles du
fameux code postal parisien. Paris ne peut plus se
réduire à l’intra-muros qui est beaucoup trop petit
en comparaison de ses grandes rivales mondiales,
à commencer par Londres.
des dossiers en région et en logistique sur
lesquels nous pouvons encore trouver des
rendements suffisants. Nous sommes toutefois
extrêmement sélectifs afin de s’assurer de la
résilience du cash-flow dans ce cas là. Nous
aimons bien les portefeuilles également même si
nous ne sommes pas les seuls.
Quels sont vos principaux objectifs au GRI France
cette année?
C.D.: Prendre encore et toujours le pouls du
marché. Valider nos stratégies ou les faire évoluer.
Régions, marchés de niches, logistiques, où se
trouvent les nouvelles opportunités ?
C.D.: Comme en 2005, partout ! Nous regardons

Interviews

Transcription

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