17 July [17Jul15 - 1.15MB]

Transcription

Agri-Weekly
17 July 2015
[email protected]
https://www.fnbagricomms.co.za
Beef market trends (Graph 1)
Graph 1: Beef price trends
International:
(SA c/kg)

US imported beef prices continued to post good 3,860
gains on the back of tight supplies and stronger
3,600
demand. Market activity on imports was
reportedly moderate with prices trending 3,340
moderate to sharply higher.
3,080

At wholesale level, US beef prices continued 2,820
their downward slide with the choice category
falling by 3% w/w and 6% y/y at US$234.85/cwt. 2,560
The select beef prices fell by 2.9% w/w and 2,300
4.7% y/y to close at US$232.12/cwt.
2,040

In the cattle market, the CME feeder index was a
bit firmer at US$223.03/cwt which is up 4% y/y. 1,780
The weekly cattle slaughter number came in at 1,520
18-Jul-14
21-Nov-14
27-Mar-15
31-Jul-15
538,000 head, down 2.4% w/w and 7.9% y/y.
Class A
Contract
The year to date slaughter reached 15.36m
Class C
Weaner calf
head, down by 7.9% y/y.
NZ Cow import parity,D/bn
* last two data points are preliminary

In Australia, cattle prices maintained a firmer
trend with the benchmark Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) finishing the week at AU$5.41/kg cwt,
which is 62% higher compared to the corresponding period last year.

The United State Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) July 2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand
Estimate (WASDE) report showed a reduced estimate of the 2015 annual US beef production compared
June, but the 2016 forecast came in higher than last month. Beef production for 2015 was lowered as
feedlot cattle slaughter in the second quarter is reduced. In addition, relatively good forage conditions and
higher feed prices are expected to slow the pace of feedlot placements until later in 2015, reducing
available supplies of feedlot cattle for slaughter in late 2015. However, these large cattle placements will
lead to increased availability of marketed cattle and slaughter in 2016.
Domestic:

Beef prices maintained a sideways trend across most categories with the exception of Class Cs which
were the biggest gainers due to limited supplies. Weekly Class C beef prices advanced by 1.2% from last
week at R27.43 per kg, which is 14% higher y/y.

Class A beef prices were marginally up by 0.4% w/w and 5.6% y/y at R34.41 per kg.

Contract Class A beef prices gained 0.9% w/w and 5% y/y to close at R33.91 per kg.

Following a downward trend over the past few weeks due to weak demand, hide prices rebounded slightly
and averaged R18.03 per kg for the week.

In the weaner market, this segment seems to be battling with supplies at the moment. This together with
strong demand saw weekly weaner calf prices increasing by 1.2% w/w and 10.6% y/y at R20.34 per kg
live weight.
OUTLOOK
Weather will be critical in the next few months leading to summer. Early rains should boost soil moisture
resulting in rapid pasture regrowth thereby encouraging farmers to hold on to their cattle and reducing
availability for the market, which is price supportive. Grazing conditions are currently very poor.
FNB Agri-Weekly
Page 2
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Graph 1b: Average hide prices per kg
Graph 1a: Weekly commercial cattle slaughter trends (head)
2015
2012
2013
2014
2015
2011
2012
2013
2014
20.0
12,000
10,000
17.0
8,000
14.0
6,000
4,000
11.0
2,000
8.0
0
1
4
7
10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Source: RMMA
Mutton market trends (Graph 2)
Graph 2: Mutton price trends
(SA c/kg)
International:

In Australia, prices were mixed with lambs trading
firmer. The National Trades Lamb indicator
6,580
rebounded slightly by 2% on the week at AU$5.86/kg 6,040
cwt. The mutton indicator prices extended losses 5,500
and finished down 3% on last week at AU$3.77/kg 4,960
cwt.
4,420

Domestic producer prices in New Zealand (NZ) were 3,880
3,340
mixed with the 17.5kg lamb advancing slightly to
close at NZ$90.40/ head but still behind last year by 2,800
11%. Mutton prices maintained a sideways trend and 2,260
18-Jul-14
21-No v-14
27-M ar-15
31-Jul-15
closed at NZ$52.20/ head, but still down by 16% y/y.
Lamb
C lass C

Meanwhile, the export market remains relatively
C o nt r act lamb
N Z Lamb p ar it y
Z N M ut t o n p ar it y
subdued with demand out of China reportedly weak.
* Last two data po ints are preliminary
However, the longer term demand prospects for
lamb and mutton in China remain bullish according
to reports.
Domestic:

Prices were mixed during midmonth with the mutton market continuing to post good gains on the back of
limited supplies.

Weekly Class A lamb prices fell by 4.1% w/w but were still 5.3% higher y/y at R52.34 per kg.

Contract Class A lamb prices were down 2.1% w/w but up 10.4% y/y at R54.69 per kg.

Mutton prices gained 3.6% w/w and 7.8% y/y at R40.65 per kg.

Weaner lamb prices reversed recent gains and fell sharply on the back of limited demand. Weekly weaner
lamb prices fell by 10% w/w and 2.4% y/y at R24.56 per kg live weight.
OUTLOOK
The softer trend will continue in the short term as demand remains subdued. Prices are however expected
to rebound slightly in the medium term as warmer weather returns.
Pork market trends (Graph 3)
International:

According to the USDA, the average US pork
carcass cutout value was up 1.1% on last week at
US$82.30/cwt but still down by almost 40% y/y.

Rib prices took a heavy hit, falling by 12.9% from last
week and down 4% y/y. Ham prices also posted
losses, coming in at US$51.70/cwt, which is down by
4% w/w and 63% y/y. Loins were the exception,
gaining 3.3% w/w but still down by 34% y/y.

Weekly slaughter data showed a slight increase on
last week at 2.09m head, which is up 14% y/y. The
year-to-date estimated pig slaughter reached 61.37m
head, up 7% y/y.
Graph 3: Pork price trends
(SA c/kg)
4,260
3,980
3,700
3,420
3,140
2,860
2,580
2,300
2,020
1,740
1,460
1,180
900
18-Jul-14
21-Nov-14
Po r ker
Imp o r t p ar it y
27-Mar-15
31-Jul-15
B aco ner
Exp o r t p ar it y
FNB Agri-Weekly
Page 3
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
In the latest WASDE report, USDA increased its estimate of the 2015 US pork production by 0.5% but the
2016 figure came in virtually unchanged from the previous estimate. The 2015 and 2016 pork import
forecasts were lowered, while the export forecasts were raised.
Domestic:

Prices trended sideways to lower with baconers coming under pressure due to softer demand during
midmonth.

Porkers however trended firmer due to limited supplies, ending the week at R24.55 per kg, but still up
16.5% y/y.

Baconer prices were marginally down at R22.15 per kg, but still up 13.8% y/y.

Import parity prices ended modestly lower largely due to lower international prices and renewed gains in
the Rand/US dollar exchange rate. Weekly pork import parity prices fell by 3.5% w/w and 49% y/y.
OUTLOOK
The short term demand outlook remains sluggish due to seasonality. As a result, there is a limited upside
potential for prices in the medium term until warmer weather returns.

Graph 3a: Pork Import Trends (tons)
Year-to-date: May 2015
Graph 3b: Pork Monthly Import Trends (tons)
7,000
20,000
15,000
6,000
2015
5,000
2012
4,000
10,000
2013
3,000
2014
2,000
5,000
1,000
0
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
Graph 4d: Imports by Country - 2012
14%
Graph 3e: Imports by Country - 2013
GERMANY
6%
16%
4%
CANADA
SPAIN
25%
FRANCE
39%
Other
4%
2%
7%
42%
5%
9%
27%
GERMANY
CANADA
SPAIN
UK
FRANCE
BELGIUM
DENMARK
Other
Graph 3c: Imports by Country - 2014
9%
9%
18%
10%
GERMANY
CANADA
FRANCE
DENMARK
10%
44%
SPAIN
Other
Source: SAPPO, SARS, Own Calculations
Poultry market trends (Graph 4)
Graph 4: Poultry price trends
International:
(c/kg)

US prices ended mixed with whole birds
2,500
rebounding modestly.
2,380

Demand at retail and food service was reportedly 2,260
light to sttrong approaching the weekend. Market
2,140
activity was reportedly slow to moderate.
2,020

Whole bird prices gained 1.6% w/w and 3% y/y at
1,900
1,780
US116.00 cents/lb.
1,660

Leg quarter prices weakened and closed at
1,540
US45.50 cents/lb, down 1.1% w/w and 18% y/y.
1,420

Breast cuts closed at US130.50 cents/lb, down
1,300
1.1% w/w but almost unchanged y/y.
1,180

Wing prices were firmer at US167.00 cents/lb, up
18 - Jul- 14
2 1- N o v- 14
2 7- M ar - 15
3 1- Jul- 15
20.9% y/y.
Frozen whole
Fresh whole
Imported Leg Quarter (US)
IQF

Drumsticks prices reversed recent gains and
* last two data po ints are preliminary
finished down 15.5% w/w and 20% y/y at US54.50
cents/lb.

In the weekly US Broiler Hatchery report, egg sets for the week ended 18 July 2015 increased slightly on
last year at 216m. Average hatchability for chicks remains at 84.0%.
FNB Agri-Weekly
Page 4
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
The broiler chick placements were up by 3% y/y at 179m head. Cumulative broiler placements from
January 10, 2015 through July 18, 2015 were up 3% y/y at 4.96b head.

USDA raised its forecast of US broiler production for 2015 and 2016 based on hatchery data and
continued increases in bird weights. Broiler exports for 2015 were raised on improved demand and large
supplies as lower feed grain prices boost production. However, the 2016 forecast came in unchanged.
Domestic:

The softer trend continued on the local market due to limited demand and increased availability of product.

Weekly frozen whole bird prices eased to R20.46 per kg, down 0.5% w/w and 2.9% y/y.

Fresh whole bird prices closed at R21.28 per kg, down 0.6% w/w but still 5% higher y/y.

In the portions category, Individually Quick Frozen cuts (IQF) prices weakened to R18.32 per kg but still
up by 11% y/y.

Import parity prices moved slightly lower due to the weaker international prices and a firmer Rand/ US
dollar exchange rate.
OUTLOOK
The reduced harvest outlook for maize has poultry producers worried as prices have risen sharply and are
putting feeding margins under pressure. It is expected that poultry prices will remain under pressure in the
short to medium term on prospects of increased domestic and import supplies. Nonetheless, prices should
rebound strongly towards year end as favourable braai weather (warmer) returns.
Graph 4a: Poultry Import Trends
Graph 4b: Poultry Monthly Import Trends (tons)
50,000
Year-to-date: May - 2015
200,000
2015
40,000
150,000
2011
30,000
2012
100,000
20,000
50,000
10,000
0
0
2013
2014
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
BRAZIL
BRAZIL
Netherlands
0.09%
Netherlands
OTHER
ARGENTINA
10.27%
ARGENTINA
UK
2.69%
UK
BRAZIL
13.81%
5.20%
6.56%
54.05%
CANADA
United States
1.69%
United States
OTHER
5.04%
OTHER
CANADA
2.94%
73.16%
18.37%
NETHERLANDS
44.83%
3.31%
ARGENTINA
3.19% BELGIUM
7.07%
1.87%
15.55%
Graph 4c: Imports by Country - 2013
1.40% CANADA
27.56%
1.34%
United States
Source: SARS, Own Calculations; *Excluding BNLS
Producer prices for selected livestock commodities
17 July 2015
Open market: Class A / Porker / Fresh whole birds(R/kg)
Open market: Class C / Baconer / Frozen whole birds(R/kg)
Contract: A2/A3* / Baconer/ IQF (*includes fifth quarter) (R/kg)
Import parity price (R/kg)
Weaner Calves / Feeder Lambs (R/kg)
Beef
34.41
27.43
33.91
37.65
20.34
Mutton
52.34
40.65
54.69
30.11
24.56
Pork
24.55
20.65
22.15
21.13
Poultry
21.17
20.34
18.32
16.72
FNB Agri-Weekly
Page 5
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Wool and cotton market trends (Graph 5)
Graph 5: Cotton & w ool prices
International:
(SA c/kg)

US cotton prices posted some modest losses on
2,100
Cotton
Wool
16,450
selling pressure as China’s stock offload is in
2,000
15,670
progress.
14,890
1,900

Additionally, weather conditions improved in Texas
14,110
1,800
with sunny skies conducive for producers to continue
13,330
1,700
field work, also bolstering overall crop development.
12,550
1,600

US Export data came in bearish on weak import
11,770
1,500
demand in China and India. Overall export
10,990
1,400
shipments were down 36% w/w and 35% from the 410,210
1,300
week average at 136,200.
9,430

Reports released on Wednesday indicated a 26%
8,650
1,200
18-Jul-14
21-Nov-14
27-M ar-15
31-Jul-15
y/y decline in China’s imports. This was attributable
SA Wool
Aus Wool
Cot t on A-Index
ICE Fut ures
to lack of import quotas on plans to offload stocks.

US cotton supply is expected to ease slightly on
reduced plantings however stocks remain high on weak export demand. Total use is expected to reach
3.75m bales, down 6% y/y, ending stocks are expected to remain flat at 4.2m bales.

Overall world production is expected to decrease by 6% y/y reaching 111.46m bales. Exports are
expected to remain firm on good import demand in India and Bangladesh where Chinese mills are
expanding into. Ending stocks are expected to ease to 108.14m bales, down 3% y/y.

Weekly cotton averaged 72.36US cents/lb, down 3% w/w and 13% y/y.

In the futures market, prices ended weaker across the board on overall weak demand. Both the Dect-15
and Mar-16 contracts were down by slightly under 1% w/w closing at US65.22 cents/lb and US64.98
cents/lb respectively.

Wool market: The Australian wool market is currently on recess.
Domestic:
th

The market is closed for the season, the next season commences on the 12 of August 2015.

The closing Cape Wools Merino indicator for the season was R141.20 per kg clean wool. At that level the
indicator was up 27% compared to the opening sale and 23% compared to the season to date average.
Fibre market prices
17 July 2015
Wool market indicator (R/kg)
19 long length wool (R/kg)
Fibre market prices
17 July 2015
Cotton Prices (R/kg)
SA prices
(R/kg)
Australian
prices
(R/kg)
Australian futures
Sep-15
(AU$/kg)
Australian futures
Dec-15
(AU$/kg)
SA derived
Cotton
(R/kg)
19.75
113.27
124.35
120.69
117.63
New York
A-Index
(US$/kg)
1.59
13.10
12.70
11.50
Cotton Futures
Oct-15
(US$/kg)
1.45
12.80
12.40
11.20
Cotton Futures
Mar-16
(US$/kg)
1.43
Cotton Futures on the InterContinental Exchange (ICE); SA Market currently closed for the 2014/15 season
Yellow maize market (Graph 6)
International:

US maize prices moved sideways to firmer on
improved production conditions following heavy rains
in the past few weeks.

Additionally, ethanol production has reportedly
picked up momentum and provided further support.

The turnaround in weather conditions saw USDA
leaving ratings unchanged at 69% in the good to
excellent condition. This was however still 7percentage points lower y/y.

However some fields remain water logged raising
concerns over the yields.

The July USDA’s WASDE report put US maize crop
at 343.7m tons, which is down 5% y/y due to reduced
(R/ton)
Graph 6: Yellow m aize prices
3,630
3,310
2,990
2,670
2,350
2,030
1,710
1,390
1,070
750
18-Jul-14
21-Nov-14
Impo rt parity
27-Mar-15
Expo rt parity
31-Jul-15
Do mestic
FNB Agri-Weekly
Page 6
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
plantings and yield concerns. Ending stocks are expected to ease to 40.61m tons, down 10% y/y.
World production was therefore revised down slightly to 987m tons which is down 1% y/y. Consumption is
expected to remain firm with feed consumption up 2% y/y at 609m tons. Ending stocks are estimated at
189m tons down 3% from the previous estimate and 2% y/y.
Domestic:

Maize prices continue to post modest gains on spill over gains from the international market.

Prices closed the week up 1% and were 62% higher y/y at R2,835 per ton.

Exports for the week were estimated at 4,741 tons, all destined to neighbouring countries.

There were no imports registered for the week, cumulative year to date import stand at 140,789 tons all
sourced from Argentina.
OUTLOOK
It remains a weather market internationally. If the recent favourable weather conditions in the USA
persist, prices could turn lower in the medium term. Domestic prices are expected to track the
developments on international market.

Graph 6a: Monthly Yellow Maize Export Trends
Graph 6b: Total SA Maize Export Trends
Marketing Seasons, (tons)
Marketing Seasons, (tons)
450,000
500,000
400,000
450,000
350,000
2015/16
2011/12
400,000
350,000
300,000
2011/12
250,000
200,000
2012/13
150,000
2013/14
2012/13
300,000
250,000
2013/14
200,000
150,000
2014/15
100,000
100,000
2014/15
50,000
2015/16
50,000
0
0
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR
Source: SAGIS
Yellow Maize Futures
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
17 July 2015
CBOT ($/t)
170
174
176
178
168
JSE (R/t)
2 884
2 911
2 886
2 631
2 611
CHICAGO CORN (R/t)
3 000
3 045
2 886
2 631
2 611
Calculated Yellow Maize Options prices (R/ton) RMB commodity desk (Tel: 011 269 9005)
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Ask
Put
Call
Ask
Put
Call
Ask
Put
Call
2,880
101
64
2,908
161
121
2,880
227
181
2,840
79
82
2,868
139
139
2,840
205
199
2,800
60
103
2,828
119
159
2,800
184
218
White maize market trends (Graph 7)
International:

Prices moved sideways to firmer as quality
concerns subsided due to the turnaround in
weather conditions.

Weekly white maize prices were slightly up on last
week and were 11% higher y/y at US$165/ton.
Domestic:

Prices ended firmer due to supply concerns and
the spill over gains from the international market.

Weekly white maize prices closed at R3,252 per
ton, up 2% w/w and 95% y/y.

Exports for the week were pegged at 10,622 tons,
with the cumulative season to date reaching
99,267 tons, all destined to neighbouring
countries.
(R/ton)
Graph 7: White m aize prices
3,800
3,480
3,160
2,840
2,520
2,200
1,880
1,560
1,240
920
600
18-Jul-14
21-Nov-14
Imp o r t p ar it y
* last two data points are
preliminary
27-M ar-15
Exp o r t p ar it y
31-Jul-15
D o mest ic
FNB Agri-Weekly
Page 7
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

There were no imports registered for the week, cumulative year to date imports stood at 262 tons all
sourced from Zambia.
OUTLOOK
It remains a weather market internationally. If the recent favourable weather conditions in the USA
persist, prices could turn lower in the medium term. Domestic prices are expected to track the
developments on international market.
White Maize
Futures
17 July 2015
JSE (R/t) WM1
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
3 330
3 391
3 354
2 805
2 735
Calculated White Maize Options prices (R/ton) RMB commodity desk (Tel: 011 269 9005)
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Ask
Put
Call
Ask
Put
Call
Ask
Put
3,260
128
84
3,320
247
208
3,280
290
256
3,220
106
102
3,280
225
226
3,240
268
274
3,180
86
122
3,240
204
245
3,200
247
293
Graph 7a: Monthly White Maize Export Trends (tons)
Marketing Seasons
300,000
Call
Graph 7b: Total Monthly SA Maize Exports (tons)
Marketing Seasons
500,000
400,000
200,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
100,000
0
MAY
JUN
JUL
2014/15
2012/13
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
2015/16
2013/14
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR APR
2011/12
0
MAY
2011/12
JUN
JUL
AUG
2012/13
SEP
OCT
NOV
2013/14
DEC
JAN
2014/15
FEB
MAR APR
2015/16
Source: SAGIS;
Wheat market trends (Graph 8)
Graph 8: Wheat price trends
International:
(R/ton)

Weekly wheat prices ended with losses on harvest
4,900
pressure and poor export demand.
4,460

US export sales saw pressure from the strong US$
4,020
3,580
index which limited demand for US wheat.
3,140

The bullish world supply outlook continued to place
2,700
downward pressure on the market. USDA is
2,260
expecting the largest winter wheat crop in 20 years
1,820
at 15.6m tons.
1,380

Total world production is estimated at 722m tons,
940
500
down from a record of 726m tons in 2014/15
18-Jul-14
21-Nov-14
27-M ar-15
31-Jul-15
marketing season. This is however the second
highest crop on record. Consumption is however
Imp o r t p ar it y
Exp o r t p ar it y
D o mest ic
expected to ease to 714m tons on reductions in
China and Canada. This is however up 2% from the
5-year record. World trade is also expected to ease on low export availability in key export countries.

Meanwhile, production conditions in Europe continue to deteriorate raising concerns over yields.
Domestic:

Prices remained relatively firm with concerns over production conditions providing added support.

Weekly wheat prices closed at R3,950 per ton, up 7% y/y.

According to SAGIS, imports for the week were estimated at 8,704 tons, all sourced from Canada. The
cumulative year to date figure reached 1.5m tons.
FNB Agri-Weekly
Page 8
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
OUTLOOK
Prices are expected to come under more pressure on the international market due to abundant world
supplies. Given the South Africa is a net importer of wheat, prices are expected to continue to track
international prices.
Graph 8a: Wheat Import Trends (tons)
Marketing Season
320,000
320000
240,000
240000
160,000
160000
80,000
80000
-
Graph 8b: Wheat Import & Export Trends (tons)
Marketing Season
0
OCT NOV DEC
JAN
2011/12
FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
2012/13
2013/14
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
2014/15
DEC JAN
IMP-2014/15
IMP-2013/14
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN JUL
EXP-2014/15
EXP-2013/14
AUG
SEP
Source: SAGIS;
Wheat Futures
17 July 2015
KCBT ($/t)
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
207.01
210.17
211.64
211.72
213.92
JSE (R/t)
3 960
3 899
3 952
Calculated Wheat Option prices (R/ton) RMB commodity desk (Tel: 011 269 9005)
Sep-15
Dec-15
-
Mar-16
Ask
Put
Call
Ask
Put
Call
Ask
Put
Call
4,000
79
39
3,940
124
83
4,000
161
113
3,960
56
56
3,900
102
101
3,960
139
131
3,920
38
78
3,860
83
122
3,920
119
151
Oilseed market trends (Graph 9)
Graph 9: Derived Oilseed prices
(R/ton)
International:

US soya bean prices moved sideways on good 7,880
crushing demand, however pressure from large 7,440
world stocks limited upside potential.
7,000

Crushing was reported at a month’s high of 6,560
6,120
142.5m tons, which is slightly above market
5,680
expectations.

In the latest USDA WASDE report, US oilseed 5,240
4,800
output was revised up to 115m tons based on
4,360
final plantings report. This is however still down
3,920
2% y/y. Further, ending stocks are expected to
3,480
lower than previous estimates.
18-Jul-14
21-No v-14
27-M ar-15
31-Jul-15

Soya bean output was revised higher on
Derived Soya
Derived Sunflower
increased land area while yields were left
Sunflower-spot
Soya-spot
* last two data po ints are preliminary
unchanged. Total US soya bean output is
estimated at 105.7m tons, down 2% y/y. Soya bean ending stocks were revised lower on high crushing
estimates.

The International Grain Council estimates world production for the 2014/15 322m tons well above the
previous estimate and 13% higher y/y on upward revisions for Argentina and Brazil. For the new season,
production was left unchanged from previous estimates at 322m tons, down 2% y/y. Beginning stocks for
the new season are 55% higher y/y on large carry-over in main exporting countries, notably China.
Domestic:

Prices were mixed in the oilseed market.

Weekly soybean prices ended with moderate gains on spill over strength from the international market.
Prices closed at R4,927 per ton, however still down 1% y/y.

Sunflower prices moved sideways to weaker on lack of supportive news, settling at R5,460 per ton, up
20% y/y.
FNB Agri-Weekly
Page 9
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
OUTLOOK
Internationally, soya bean prices are expected to trend sideways with further downside potential on
adequate global supplies. However, the medium term price outlook for the domestic market remains
bullish due to the lower expected crop compared to last year.
Oilseeds Futures
17 July 2015
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
May-16
CBOT Soybeans (US $/t)
369.86
367.07
366.92
CBOT Soya oil (US c/lb)
31.94
32.37
32.41
32.46
CBOT Soya cake meal (US$/t)
384.16
380.74
369.16
368.06
JSE Sunflower seed (R/t)
5 481
5 555
JSE Soybean seed (R/t)
4 985
5 045
5 155
5 137
Calculated Sunflower Option prices (R/ton) RMB commodity desk (Tel: 011 269 9005)
Sep-15
Dec-15
Jul-16
363.10
32.42
366.19
-
Mar-16
Ask
Put
Call
Ask
Put
Call
5,600
152
102
5,620
265
215
5,560
130
120
5,580
243
233
5,520
110
140
5,540
222
252
Ask
Put
Call
Sugar market trends (Graph 15)
Graph 10: World Raw Sugar Price
International:
(USc/lb)
No.11 (Usc/lb)

Sugar prices moved sideways to firmer as rain
21
induced harvest delays were met by
expectations of a bumper crop in Brazil.
19

This coupled with the weaker Real should see
18
prices resuming a downward trend.

However, the lower ending stocks will limit
16
further declines.
15

Raw sugar prices were virtually unchanged w/w
and settled at US12.38 cents/Ib, which is down
13
28% y/y.
12

Futures were down across the board with the
Mar-16 contract down 2% w/w at US13.35
10
cents/lb; while the May-16 contract saw slight
19 - Jul- 14
17 - Nov- 14
18 - Ma r- 15
17 - Jul- 15
losses, ending down 2% w/w at US13.44
cents/lb.
Domestic:

The June 2015 RV price in respect of cane delivered in May 2015 was declared at R3,867.41 per ton, up
by R14.88 m/m. According to the South African Cane Growers Association, this was attributable to the
20,134 ton drop in gross sugar production currently estimated at 1.75m tons, an improved average world
market price and the weaker Rand. The downside pressure came from the decrease in the sugar:RV
ratio.

Export availability is estimated at 62,083 tons however further significant revisions are expected in future
given the uncertainty in the crop estimate as it is still early in the season.
ICE Sugar Futures
17 July 2015
Sugar No.11 (US c/lb)
% Change w/w
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Mar-17
13.35
-2.2%
13.44
-1.8%
13.51
-1.0%
13.75
-0.5%
14.34
-0.2%
FNB Agri-Weekly
Page 10
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Vegetable Market Trends (Graphs 11 to 15)
Tomatoes
Tomato prices carried the weak momentum as a
result of volume pressure.
Weekly tomato prices closed at R5,327 per ton,
down 15% w/w and 23% y/y. Volumes of tomatoes
traded reached 4,276 tons, up 5% w/w and 46%
y/y.
Prices are however expected to rebound slightly
on moderation in supplies.
Graph 11: Fresh Produce Markets
-Tom ato prices
6000
11,280
10,340
9,400
5000
8,460
7,520
6,580
4000
3000
5,640
4,700
2000
3,760
2,820
1,880
940
0
18-Jul-14
1000
0
21-Nov-14
27-Mar-15
Volumes (ton) (RHS)
31-Jul-15
R/ton (LHS)
Potatoes
Potato prices resumed a weaker trend on increased
supplies across markets.
The average weekly price of potatoes eased to
R2,393 per ton, down 11% w/w and 20% y/y.
Volumes of potatoes traded reached 13,717 tons,
virtually unchanged w/w and up 3% y/y.
Prices are expected to rebound on good demand in
the short to medium term.
- Potato prices
18720
16640
14560
12480
10400
8320
6240
4160
2080
0
5 120
4 480
3 840
3 200
2 560
1920
1280
640
0
18-Jul-14
21-Nov-14
27-Mar-15
Volumes (ton) (RHS)
31-Jul-15
R/ton (LHS)
* last t wo dat a point s are preliminary
Onions
Onion prices reversed last week’s gains on subdued
uptake on markets.
Weekly onion prices closed at R3,083 per ton, down
5% w/w and 16% y/y. Volumes of onions traded
were pegged at 4,903 tons, down 9% w/w but up
10% y/y.
It is expected that prices will flatten out in the short
term on moderation in supplies.
- Onion prices
8000
5 400
4 860
4 320
3 780
3 240
2 700
2 160
1620
1080
540
0
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
18-Jul-14
21-Nov-14
Volumes (ton) (RHS)
* last t wo dat a point s are preliminary
27-Mar-15
31-Jul-15
R/ton (LHS)
FNB Agri-Weekly
Page 11
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Carrots
Graph 14: Fresh Produce Markets Carrot prices
Carrot prices extended recent losses under
pressure due to moderation in demand during
midmonth.
Weekly carrot prices were down 2% w/w and 25%
y/y, closing at R2,284 per ton. Volumes of carrots
traded reached 1,651 tons, down 7% w/w but up
12% y/y.
Prices are expected to remain flat in the short to
long term due to a balance in the supply and
demand dynamics for the medium term.
2,500
2,250
2,000
1,750
1,500
1,250
1,000
750
500
250
0
8360
7600
6840
6080
5320
4560
3800
3040
2280
1520
760
0
18-Jul-14
21-Nov-14
27-M ar-15
31-Jul-15
Volumes (ton) (RHS)
R/ton (LHS)
- Cabbage prices
Cabbages
Cabbaged prices rebounded from last week’s
losses on moderation in supplies across markets.
Weekly cabbage prices closed at R3,875 per ton,
up 18% w/w and 42% y/y. Volumes of cabbages
traded were down by 1% w/w but up 5% y/y at
1,342 tons.
For the short term, prices are expected to ease
slightly on volume pressure, but will rebound in the
medium term as demand picks up.
1900
4 940
4 560
4 180
3 800
3 420
3 040
2 660
2 280
1 900
1 520
1 140
760
380
0
18- Jul- 14
1520
1140
760
380
0
21- Nov- 14
27- Mar- 15
Volumes (ton) (RHS)
31- Jul- 15
R/ton (LHS)
Vegetable prices: South Africa’s Major Fresh Produce Markets.
(Average Pretoria, Bloemfontein, Johannesburg, Cape Town and Durban)
Week ending
17 July 2015
Average
Price (R/t)
w/w
y/y
Total
Volume (t)
w/w
y/y
Tomato
Potato
Onion
Carrot
5 327
2 393
3 083
2 284
-15%
-11.4%
-5%
-2%
-23%
-20.0%
-16%
-25%
4276
13717
4903
1651
5%
0%
-9%
-7%
46%
3.3%
10%
12%
Cabbage
3 875
18%
42%
1342
-1%
5%
* Daily prices also available at https://www.fnbagricomms.co.za
FNB Agri-Weekly
Page 12
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
The Fruit Market Trends – Major Fresh Produce Markets in SA (Graphs 16 to 20)
Graph 16: Fresh Produce Markets - Apple prices
Graph 17: Fresh Produce Markets - Avocado prices
8,000
3,500
7,000
3,000
6,000
2,500
5,000
2,000
4,000
1,500
3,000
1,000
2,000
500
1,000
0
19-Jul-14
17-Nov-14
Quantity (ton) (RHS)
0
17-Jul-15
18-Mar-15
R/ton (LHS)
30,000
27,000
24,000
21,000
18,000
15,000
12,000
9,000
6,000
3,000
0
19-Jul-14
Graph 18: Fresh Produce Markets - Banana prices
6,000
7,000
5,000
6,000
4,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
3,000
2,000
2,000
1,000
1,000
17-Nov-14
600
500
400
300
200
100
17-Nov-14
18-Mar-15
R/ton (LHS)
0
17-Jul-15
80,000
900
70,000
800
60,000
700
600
50,000
500
40,000
400
30,000
300
20,000
200
10,000
100
0
17-Jul-15
18-Mar-15
700
Graph 19: Fresh Produce Markets - Grapes prices
8,000
0
19-Jul-14
800
0
19-Jul-14
R/ton (LHS)
17-Nov-14
18-Mar-15
0
17-Jul-15
R/ton (LHS)
Graph 20: Fresh Produce Markets - Pear prices
Graph 20: Fresh Produce Markets - Mango prices
60,000
1,400
60,000
1,200
50,000
1,200
50,000
1,000
40,000
800
30,000
600
20,000
400
10,000
200
1,000
40,000
800
30,000
600
20,000
400
10,000
200
0
19-Jul-14
17-Nov-14
0
19-Jul-14
0
17-Jul-15
18-Mar-15
17-Nov-14
18-Mar-15
R/ton (LHS)
0
17-Jul-15
R/ton (LHS)
FRUIT PRICES: Major FPM. (Average Pretoria, Bloemfontein, Johannesburg, Cape Town and Durban)
Week ending
17 July 2015
Apples
Avocados
Bananas
Grapes
Pears
Average
Price (R/t)
w/w
5 313
12 216
4 885
58 115
26 633
2%
3%
4%
-8%
6%
y/y
-3%
47%
22%
1%
7%
Total
Volume (t)
2026
421
3062
12
141
w/w
-16%
-8%
-4%
7%
-78%
y/y
-3%
-14%
-6%
-38%
-75%
* Daily prices also available at https://www.fnbagricomms.co.za
Disclaimer:
Although everything has been done to ensure the accuracy of the information, the Bank takes no responsibility for actions or losses that
might occur due to the usage of this information.

17 July [17Jul15 - 1.15MB]

Transcription

Similar documents

Waste Neutral Group DC6

MB-LS170 - mb crusher

View a pdf - US Industrial Auctions

Hawbaker`s Warm Experiences

cub couch - Keystone RV

Moody Construction Brochure - Moody Construction Services, Inc.

World leading supplier

Paper Machine Water System Audits

CNC Turning • Machine Capabilities o Daewoo Puma 300M With

HwaShin Plant in China