North Rhine-Westphalia - LCS-RNet

The participatory process to a low carbon economy in the
German state of North Rhine-Westphalia
Prof. Dr. Manfred Fischedick
Vice President
Wuppertal Institute
October 2014
Background for the state level process - central targets and milestones of
the German „Energiewende“
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German energy concept (adapted status of July 2011)
• 
• 
Renewable energies and energy efficiency are central pillars of the “Energiewende” in Germany Primary energy consump>on is to be reduced by more than 50% by 2050. Market share of renewable energies is to be fostered, concept aims for 2050 for -  more than 60% in terms of primary energy consump@on -  more than 80% regarding electricity genera@on 22.09.14
1.400.000 1.200.000 1.000.000 800.000 600.000 GHG
UN: Kyoto 1992
EU: Manchester 1998
D: -21% by 2012
Current emissions in 2012 (2011):
931 Mio. t CO2eq (917 Mio. t CO2eq;):
ca. -25 % gg. 1990
German government 2007/2009
Merkel/Gabriel: -40% bis 2020 (conditional)
Merkel/Röttgen: -40% bis 2020
CO2
(without conditions)
German government 1995
Kohl/Töpfer: -25% bis 2005
IPCC 2007
-80% by 2050
400.000 IPCC 2007
-95% by 2050
200.000 Ø  Germany has already achieved significant results... 0 Ø ... but there is s@ll an long long way to go! 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050 • 
Emissionen in tausend Tonnen CO2eq
Concept combines climate protection target with nuclear phase
out strategy and sets further ambitious RE deployment goals
Nuclear phase out program LCS-RNET 6TH ANNUAL MEETING
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Development of GHG emissions in Germany
Germany is loosing track to achieve 2020 reduction goal if current
increase of GHG emissions continues
2012: Energy supply sector as main
driver due to low CO2-price
2013: again +1.2 %
emissions increase (cold
winter as one driver)
2009: financial crisis
Development of greenhouse gas emissions in Germany per sector
Figures in million tonnes CO2 equivalents
76
94
151 42 185
77
189
382
356
368
366
377
91
153 40
75
187
151 44
100 150 42 174
199
403
108
150 46
76
78
75
201
150 39
397
89
191
153 50
396
114
76
185
157 44
403
112
78
79
191
166 45
950
940
408
114
78
188
166 47
929
394
123
80
186
172 55
947
393
122
83
189
57
174
913
383
132
83
199
51
178
980
370
121
119
84
200
55
182
83
977
380
133
211
1,003
59
995
177
84
-0,5 %/a
229
1,033 1,020
61
226
70
173
144
1,034
380
200
1,042 1,041 1,056
401
458
400
1,076
394
130
131
600
-0,8 %/a
174
86
236
60
160
81
800
174
276
1 000
1,101
139
1,137
1,118
84
99
1 200
107
-1,8 %/a
1,232 1,249
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
- 40%
compared to 1990
? 0
Base
year
1990
Energy industry
Kyoto target Ø 974 Households
Transport
Commerce, trade, services
Industry
Agriculture
Other emissions
Base year emissions as set out in Kyoto Protocol
-40% target
2020
target
Kyoto budget
Source: Federal Environment Agency (UBA) 7 January 2014
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Renewable energy based electricity generation
RE electricity generation is the frontrunner amongst RE applications (dynamic
increase over two decades)
Source: BMU 2013 22.09.14
Renewable Energy Sources in Germany
2012
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Market deployment of renewable energies on track
Renewable energy based electricity generation recently started to overshoot
contribution of nuclear energy
Source: AEE 2013 22.09.14
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trug sie sogar 19 TWh pro Jahr. Wird der Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien auf das von der Bundesregierung
vorgesehene Maß begrenzt, muss er gegenüber dem Trend 2010-2012 also mehr als halbiert werden.
Amendment
of Renewable
Energy Ausbau
Law (EEG)
Für die EEG-Umlage
bringt dieser verlangsamte
hingegenwill
kaumdecrease
Einsparungen.market
Ein durchschnittlicher Haushalt (3500 kWh Stromverbrauch pro Jahr) müsste im Jahr 2015 rund 50 Cent pro Monat weniger
dynamic
but makes realisation of long-term target still possible
zahlen (EEG-Umlage um 0,17 Ct/kWh niedriger), wenn der Ausbau der Erneuerbaren gegenüber dem
Determination
Trend 2005-2012 of
um market
ein Drittelpenetration
gekürzt wird. corridor
Ausbaupfade der Stromerzeugung aus erneuerbaren Energien
600
100
Biomasse
90
Photovoltaik
80
Wind
70
400
Wasserkraft
60
Trend 2010-2012
fortgeschrieben
(+ 18,8 TWh/Jahr)
Trend 2005-2012
fortgeschrieben
(+ 11,4 TWh/Jahr)
300
200
50
Ausbaukorridor
im
Markt penetration
Koalitionsvertrag
40
corridor (EEG 2014)
30
20
100
Strombereitstellung erneuerbare Energien in %
Strombereitstellung erneuerbarer Energien in TWh
500
10
0
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Quellen
Source: FÖS
2014: Stromerzeugung aus erneuerbaren Energien 2000-2012 laut AGEE-Stat (2013), Ausbaukorridor laut CDU/CSU/SPD
(2013), Trend 2005-2012 und 2010-2012 eigene Berechnung
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Key characteristics of the the German state North Rhine-Westphalia
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North Rhine-Westphalia – in the heart of Europe
§  Germany ð federal system
§  North Rhine-Westphalia ð one of a
total of 16 German federal states
§  With approx. 18 million inhabitants ð
the most populous state in Germany
§  34.000 square kilometres ð the most
densely populated state in Germany
§  High industrial agglomeration, but
also predominantly rural areas
§  And: popular soccer teams!
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North Rhine-Westphalia – Energy State No. 1 in Germany
§  95% of German hard coal mining
§  53% of German lignite mining
§  approx. 1.1 Mio. million employees in
the energy sector
§  approx. 30,000 MW of installed power
plant capacity
§  nearly 1/3 of the German electricity
production à 70% coal-based, 90%
fossil
§  35% of German CO2-emissions (~300
Mio. t/a)
§  Per capita emissions: 16 t CO2/year
à  In order to reach the na>onal and European mi>ga>on targets North Rhine-­‐Westphalia plays a crucial role à  If the industrial region of North Rhine-­‐Westphalia does not succeed, it is unlikely that Germany and Europe will reach their targets à  Energy system transi>on in NRW can serve as blueprint for other industry intensive regions in the world 22.09.14
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Wuppertal Institute
North Rhine-Westphalia - central role for mitigation on a national level
Total emissions of North Rhine-Westphalia NRW compared to other European
countries (2010)
1000
900
800
600
500
400
300
200
100
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11 Malta
Cypres
Latvia
Luxembourg
Slowenia
Estonia
Lithuania
Slowak. Rep.
Ireland
Bulgaria
Denmark
Sweden
Hungary
Portugal
Finland
Austria
Greece
Rumania
Belgium
Czechia
Netherlands
North Rhine-
Spain
Poland
Italy
France
Great Britain
0
Germany
Mio. t CO2eq
700
Wuppertal Institute
North Rhine-Westphalias central role for mitigation on a national level
GHG-Emissions disproportionaly based on energy conversion
Agriculture
7,6 Mio. t
2%
Domestic households
26,7 Mio. t
9%
Sectors of GHG-­‐emissions in North Rhine-­‐WesValia (total 2010: 314 Mio. t CO2eq) Sonstige
9,2 Mio. t
3%
Traffic
34,1 Mio. t
11%
Construcion/Commerce
11,4 Mio. t
4%
Source: LANUV 2013
22.09.14
Energy conversion
167,4 Mio. t
53%
Idustry
57,2 Mio. t
18%
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The role of the federal states on climate policy and the energy
turnaround (“Energiewende”)
§  Shaping an appropriate policy framework at the national and
European level (especially through the Federal Council)
§  Designation and authorisation of grid expansion
§  Adaptation of spatial planning (planning rules for the expansion of
renewable energy sources)
§  State funding programs
§  Use of information and consulting facilities (e,.g. NRW Energy
Energy Agency)
§  Coordination and cooperation at the municipal level
§  Refurbishment of own state estate
§  etc.
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Legislative background in North Rhine-Westphalia - Climate
Protection Act (since January 2013)
Contents of the state level law
- Goals of the Act
ð  Greenhouse gas reduction in North Rhine-Westphalia:
- at least 25% by 2020
- at least 80% by 2050 (vs. 1990)
ð  Expansion of renewable energies, increase the level of resource and
energy efficiency, energy conservation
ð  Limit negative impacts of climate change through adaptation measures
- Implementation through the state government
ð  Funding obligation
ð  Obligation to educate, train and inform the public
ð  Role model for achieving climate protection goals (in particular a carbonneutral state administration)
ð  Development of a Climate Protection Plan (within a participatory
process)
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Key elements of the Climate Protection Plan
§  Specification of central (technological, infrastructure and behavioural)
strategies and needs to achieve the “Energiewende” goals at state level
§  Identification of relevant system interdependencies and implementation
barriers between relevant strategies
§  Bundle strategies and measures in consistent scenarios/pathways showing
how the climate protection goals outlined in the Climate Protection Act can
be achieved
§  Linking of mitigation and adaptation strategies and measures
§  Specify the climate protection contribution: temporally, sectorally and
regionally
§  Guarantee of full participation of social stakeholders in a wide-scale
dialogue and participation process
§  Specification of necessary support for all stakeholder to realize GHG
mitigation measures and to adapt to climate change
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Why there is a broad participatory approach for the development
of the climate action plan?
Why participation?
§ 
§ 
§ 
§ 
§ 
§ 
§ 
Stick to legislative requirements
Integration of experts know-how
Maximum transparency
Maximise acceptance and public engagement
Create an appropriate implementation culture
Stimulate new cooperation schemes
Invitation for joint approaches
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General concept of the participatory process
The process is NOT designed as a preparatory input to political decisions
Studies, Scenarios
(Participatory process
with key stakeholders)
Science
Draft Climate Protection Plan
Recommendations
State
Government
But: Iterative Process
Draft Climate
Protection Plan
Participatory process with key stakeholders
Science
State government
Klimaschutzplan NRW AG 2, 1. Sitzung
06. September 2012
Seite 1
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Structure of the participatory process
Phase 2: Specification/
Networking
Phase 1: Conceptualisation
6 Working Groups
Steering Commi]ee Adapta>on to Climate Change Kick-off Event
22.09.14
Interim Results
Start
Regional Workshops Networking Events
•  Public
•  Municipalities
•  Enterprises
DraL Climate Protec>on PLan Climate Protec>on Finalisation
Workshops
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Participation structure of the climate protection plan
Recommenda@ons Mi>ga>on Workgroup 1 Energy conversion Workgroup 2 Industry Workgroup 3 Construc@on, Trade and Commerce Workgroup 4 Traffic Workgroup 5 Agriculture, Forestry Workgroup 6 Private Households Ci@zens of North Rhine Westphalia (ci@zen dialoguesI Online-­‐par@cipa@on Municipali@es Workshop Companies Workshop Ci@zens Workshop Regional Workshops Adapta>on Workshop 1 Informa@on, Educa@on and Networking Workshop 2 Country side Workshop 3 Industry and Commercial sector Workshop 4 Residen@al Areas State parliament enacts Climate Protec@on Plan Stakeholder Working Groups Phase 2. Specifica@on/Networking State Gouvernment develops Climate Protec@on Plan Phase 1: Conceptualisa@on Accompanying Research and Process Monitoring 22.09.14
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Conceptualisation phase - steps to develop stakeholder-based
scenarios
Steps 1 Defini@on of strategies and topics Working Groups 2 Discussion of possible developments of the strategies @ll 2050 Working Groups 3 Building a model of greenhouse gases emissions for NRW @ll 2050, based on stakeholder strategies Wuppertal Ins@tut 4 Presenta@on and diskussion of first scenario results Working Groups 5 Scenario adjustment based on stakeholder comments Wuppertal Ins@tut 6 Presenta@on and diskussion of final scenario results Working Groups 7 Impact Analysis of final scenarios Prognos, Energynau@cs, GWS 22.09.14
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Scenario corridor tries to consider different stakeholder
perspectives and deviating assessment
Scenarios
A
A1
A2
Mitigation scenarios
B1
B2
BCCS
B
C
C1
C2
high
low
100%*
Baseline
0,6
0,8
Electricity production
Development renewables
low
high
high
100%*
low
very low
very low
constant
constant
decreasing
constant
slightly
decreasing
1,2%
1,2%
0,6%
0,6%
1,2%
Best available
technology
Low carbon technology
Low carbon technology
Demand for electricity**
Industry
Growth
Technology
Usage of H2 in PJ 2050
-
140
280
140
200
280
cost-efficent available
technolgy
-
-
Buildings
Reconstruction rate
1,4% 0,7% 1,4%
2,0%
1,4%
2,0%
2,0%
0,7%
1990-2020 (Target -25%)
-21% -20% -25%
-26%
-26%
-27%
-22%
-29%
-24%
-29%
-21%
-16%
1990-2050 (Target -80%)
-57% -57% -60%
-65%
-64%
-79%
-67%
-69%
-68%
-82%
-51%
-40%
Mitigation of GHG-Emission
in NRW***
*
**
100% of electricity production from renewables
***
domestic mitigation in North Rhine-Westfalia excluding emission trading
electricity demand are scenario results
Source: Wuppertal Ins@tute 2014, Prognos 2014 22.09.14
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GHG-Emissions (1000 t CO2eq) for core scenarios in North
Rhine-Westphalia till 2050
(Scenarios A, B and C Climate Protection Plan participation process)
400000"
350000"
1000#t#CO2eq#
300000"
Mitigation! Mitigation!
1990/!
1990/!
2020!
2050!
!
250000"
Scenario!
A!
Scenario!
B!
Scenario!
C!
200000"
150000"
100000"
!21%%
!57%%
!26%%
!65%%
!29%%
!69%%
50000"
0"
1990"
2000"
THG"in"NRW"199012010"
!
2010!
Scenario! 786.833&
A!
Scenario! 786.833&
B!
Scenario! 786.833&
C!
22.09.14
2010"
2020"
Szenario"A"
2030"
2040"
Szenario"B"
2050"
Szenario"C"
Mitigation! Mitigation!
1990/2020! 1990/2050!
2020!
2030!
2040!
2050!
710.462&
587.709&
444.128&
316.086&
-28%&
-68%&
662.715&
520.089&
389.640&
274.705&
-33%&
-72%&
666.251&
506.020&
378.352&
260.786&
-33%&
-74%&
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GHG mitigation on national level
(corresponding scenario results for
federal level)
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Systematic multi-criteria impact assessment helps to view scenario
results from different perspectives and come to a holistic assessment
Security of energy supply Employ-­‐
ment effects Gender Import depen-­‐
dance Impacts Social effects Gender Overall economy effects Health Environ
mental effects Source: Prognos 2014 22.09.14
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Scenario interpretation and further options
-  Only some of the scenarios (e.g. 100% renewable energy scenarios –
electricity generation) can meet the GHG mitigation goals (physically) in NRW
– most of them stay into a corridor between 60 and 70% GHG mitigation (2050
to 1990 level)
-  However: The mitigation target could be achieved through the European
emission trading system: prerequisite is a substantial tightening of the EU ETS
goals
In addition:
-  Till 2050 further technology improvement are possible, scenario presumptions
are moderate as yet
-  There are a lot of mitigation measures which could not be quantified (and
included) due to absent data and experience (like impacts of changing
consumer behaviour)
-  More ambitious components are thinkable like an early integration of
renewable energy based methane or a radical shift of the modal split
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Steps to develop and specify concrete mitigation measures
(policy instruments)
Steps 1 Defini@on of criteria to characterize mi@ga@on measures 2 Collec@on and descrip@on of mi@ga@on measures 3 Content verifica@on 4 Online verifica@on 5 Mi@ga@on measure discussion and selec@on based on several criteria – group assessment of integar@on or not into the climate protec@on plan 22.09.14
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Assessment criteria for discussion of mitigation measures in the
working groups and used in online survey
0%"
3"
Gesellscha3liche"Akzeptanz"
Beschä3igungseffekte" 0"
KostenBNutzenBRelaEon"
Wirtscha3lichkeit"
20%"
3"
5"
3"
1" 1"
3"
60%"
3"
4"
1"
Sozialverträglichkeit" 0"
40%"
3"
3"
0"
0"
5"
0"
5"
1"0"
2" 0"
3"
80%"
6"
7"
8"
100%"
Recommenda@on gut"
eher"gut"
miKel"
8"
47%"
eher"schlecht"
schlecht"
9"
53%"
Ja"
Keine"Bewertung"
§  Additional transparent information about arguments in favor or against
implementation (collection of Pro‘s and Con‘s)
§  Mitigation measures were discussed and selected during a stakeholder
meeting
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Nein"
Summary concrete mitigation measures (policy instruments)
80
70
60
29
9
50
divergent
40
3
17
30
20
10
52
24
40
35
4
12
12
WG1
WG2
conjointly
22
0
WG3
WG4
WG5
WG6
à Total number: 258
à Additionally measures from climate change adaptation: 103
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Additional benefits through the participation process:
Political benefits
§  Specification of stakeholder family relevant for the implementation and
monitoring of ambitious climate protection policy in North RhineWestphalia
§  Significantly improved knowledge base about mitigation potentials and
scenarios in North Rhine-Westphalia (scenario corridor as orientation
mark for assessment of options for action)
§  Sound foundation for selection and implementation of mitigation
measures (policy instruments)
§  Lighthouse effect beyond North Rhine-Westphalia for similar
participatory processes
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Additional benefits through the participation process:
Communication and participation benefits
§  Highly productive discussion culture buildup in the working groups
§  Awareness rising for different perspectives throughout the
stakeholders
§  Confidence building between stakeholders and ministries, especially
between industry and ministry for Environment
§  Better chance to implement mitigation measures jointly developed
with relevant stakeholders
§  Starting point for further dialog structures with stakeholders (industry)
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Dialogue on climate protec>on with the industry in North Rhine-­‐Westphalia based on the climate protec>on plan par>cipa>on process 1.: Conceptualisation
Sectoral
round tables and other
formats
Sectoral
prelaminary talks
Chemical industry Aluminium industry Cement industry 1 Glass industry 2 Paper produc@on Cross-­‐sector discussions Overlapping topics Prepara@on: -­‐  Project visualisa@on -­‐  Guidelines for prelaminary talks -­‐  Drak-­‐Low-­‐Carbon concepts Discussions with environmental organisa6on Traget: Development of dialog concepts (Formats, topics, possible par@cipants) 2. Q 2014
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target: Development and improvement of Low-­‐Carbon concepts 3. Q 2014
4. Q 2014
page
30 Analysis and edi@ng of Low-­‐Carbon concepts Steel industry 2.: Implementation
1. Q 2015
Wuppertal Institute
Thank you very much for your attention!