Claes Tingvall, Trafikverket

Håller Nollvisionen?
Claes Tingvall
Anders Lie
Trafikverket Juli 2011
Omkomna i vägtrafiken de senaste
månaderna, 1997-2011
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
* I 2010 års utfall ingår inte självmord. I den preliminära månadsrapportering under 2011 ingår självmord.
12
Omkomna fördelade efter färdsätt
januari-juni, 2006-2011
120
100
Bilförare
80
Bilpassagerare
60
Motorcyklister
Mopedister
40
Cyklister
Gående
20
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010*
2011*
* F o m 2010 exklusive suicid enligt officiell statistik (15-20 fall årligen). I den preliminära statistiken för 2011 har dessa ännu inte kunnat exkluderas.
Svårt skadade i vägtrafiken januari-juni,
2002-2011
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Allvarligt skadade efter färdsätt
till 2009
Antal
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
Cyklist
2500
Personbil
2000
MC-moped
1500
Fotgängare
1000
Lastbil/buss
500
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Allvarligt skadade efter färdsätt,
2010
Invaliditetsgrad från 10 %
5%
5%
Fotgängare
33%
På cykel
På moped
På motorcykel
43%
I personbil
I buss/lastbil/Övrigt
6%
8%
Relativ utveckling av andel trafikarbete över
hastighetsgräns samt medelhastighet, statligt
vägnät
jan-maj 1996-2011 (Index1996 = 1)
1,05
1
0,95
0,9
0,85
0,8
0,75
0,7
Medelhastighet total trafik
Andel över skyltad hastighet
Nykter trafik
Alkoholpåverkade omkomna personbilsförare
Antal
Andel
70
30%
60
25%
50
20%
40
15%
30
10%
20
10
5%
0
0%
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Antal
2004
2005
Andel
2006
2007
2008
2009 2010*
Bältesanvändning
Omkomna obältade personbilsförare
Antal
Andel
140
60%
120
50%
100
40%
80
30%
60
20%
40
10%
20
0
0%
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Antal
2004
2005
Andel
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010*
Hjälmanvändning – cykel
Observerad hjälmanvändning bland cyklister
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1996
2000
2004
Cykelhjälmsanvändning
Nödvändig utveckling om ej lag
2008
2012
2016
Nödvändig utveckling om ny lag
2020
Relative risk of fatality
Kullgren, Lie & Tingvall 2010
1,2
1
0,8
Minor injury
0,6
Severe Injury
Fatality
0,4
0,2
0
2
3
4
5
Comparison of mrsc in one and two star cars in different speed limits
MRSC 5 %+, n=542
50%
44%
45%
40%
40%
41%
40%
35%
30%
25%
28%
24%
*
21%
**
20%
15%
14%
10%
5%
0%
30 km/h
50 km/h
70 km/h
90 km/h
ESC new cars fitment rate 2009
Säkra fordon – personbilar
Andel trafikarbete med personbilar med olika skyddssystem
100,0%
90,0%
80,0%
70,0%
60,0%
50,0%
40,0%
30,0%
20,0%
10,0%
0,0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Säkra fordon - motorcyklar
Andelen motorcyklar utrustade med ABS i nyförsäljningen
2009
2010
30 %
60%
(9) By 2050, move close to zero fatalities in road
transport. In line with this goal, the EU aims at
halving road casualties by 2020. Make sure that the
EU is a world leader in safety and security of
transport in all modes of transport.
WHITE PAPER
Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area – Towards a
competitive and resource efficient transport system
EU commission 2011
9. CONSIDERS that infrastructure, vehicles and road
users should be seen as a system in which human
error and inappropriate behavior should always be
taken into account. Infrastructure and vehicles should
be designed as to prevent and limit consequences of
such failures;
Council conclusions on road safety 3052th TRANSPORT,
TELECOMMUNICATIONS and ENERGY Council meeting Brussels, 2–3
December 2010
"Towards a European road safety area: policy orientations on road
safety 2011-2020"
15. ENCOURAGES a strong cooperation between the
bodies responsible for the infrastructure in the Member
States and the vehicle industry in order to support the
deployment of promising in-vehicle safety systems that
can contribute to save lives on the European roadnetwork. New
technical solutions of which the effect is proven can
contribute to make it possible to deal with problems like
speeding and impaired driving (such as driving under the
influence of alcohol, drugs and fatigue);
Council conclusions on road safety 3052th TRANSPORT,
TELECOMMUNICATIONS and ENERGY Council meeting Brussels, 2–3
December 2010
"Towards a European road safety area: policy orientations on road safety
2011-2020"
Our Vision is that no one is killed or
injured in a Volvo by 2020
Volvo Cars’ Vision 2020
Volvo Cars’ Vision 2020, Sept 9,
2010
Anders Eugensson, Volvo Car
Corporation
Shared responsability / Boundary conditions
Contribution Contribution
active safety
passive
safety
40
Pedestrians
10
70
40
40
Side
Rear-end
55
20
30
+
60
+
Head-on
+
80
15
2020
80
30
+
2020 +
110
+
Large animal
The crash sequence:
(matching human error and crash protection)
what we
might hit:
human error
• education
• motivation
• cognition, etc.
• enforcement
• economic incentives
normal
driving
Deviation
from
normal
driving
Emerging
situation
Critical
situation
• unawareness
• inattention
• violation
• too close
• drifting
• sudden event
• skidding
• loss of control
access to
road
transport
system
Vehicle
comfort
economy
social
conformity
promote normal
driving
warning
system
supporting
system
(ISA, SBR,
alcohol
interlock)
Infrastructure
promote normal
driving
Others
promote normal
driving
(speed warning,
tactile warning,
humps)
enforcement
insurance
contracts
intervention
in driving
Crash
unavoidable
crash
immediate
correction
(AICC, LDW)
(ESC, LDA,
AICC2)
tactile edge
lines
high friction
surface
preparation
for crash
(pre-safe,
emergency
braking)
crash protection
(seat belts,
airbag, whiplash
protection,
pedestrian
protection)
barrier design,
roundabouts
emergency
service
Normal Driving
Support systems
•Seat belt reminders
•ISA/Speed Alert
•Alcolocks
•Impaired driving detection
•Etc.
Access
26
Normal
driving
Dangerous
situation
Crash
Health
treatment
Dangerous Situation
Support systems
•Adaptive Cruise Control
•Lane departure warning
•Electronic stability control (ESC)
•Pre Impact Emergency Braking
•Etc.
Access
27
Normal
driving
Dangerous
situation
Crash
Health
treatment
And we should think:
”Roads that cars can read”
Mercedes S-Class
Opel Insignia
Saab 9-5
BMW 5-Series
Ford Focus
VW Phaeton / Passat
Audi A6
A management system standard
31
Sammanfattning
Vi har haft en mycket positiv utveckling,
men nu måste vi lägga till nya
egenskaper och metoder
Dom nya egenskaperna finns i den nya
bilen, men den måste samverka med
både normer och infrastruktur
Organisationers och företagens
beteende är nyckeln till bättre normer
och därmed bättre teknik