ski property report 2015

RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
FINE HOMES
RESIDENTIAL
SKI PROPERTY
REPORT 2015
ASSESSING CURRENT PROPERTY MARKET
CONDITIONS IN THE FRENCH AND SWISS ALPS
2015 INDEX RESULTS
FRENCH VS.
SWISS ALPS
CURRENCY SHIFTS
DRIVING DEMAND
KEY FINDINGS
Val d’Isere and Meribel lead the
2015 Ski Property Index recording
annual price growth of 5.8% and
4.5% respectively
Prime sales activity in the
French Alps is focussed between
€1.5 and €2.5m with resorts such
as Chamonix and Courchevel 1550
increasingly popular
The number of sales completed
in Megeve in the first half of 2015
was double the number of sales
agreed during the whole of 2014
Previous uncertainty in the Swiss
market is giving way to renewed
optimism as clarity emerges
surrounding taxation and the
second home cap
ALPINE FOCUS
Demand for Alpine property is rising, spurred on by a more
resilient Eurozone, greater clarity over tax and the second
home cap in Switzerland, as well as a weaker euro.
The latest results of our Prime Ski
Property Index (see below) underline a
broadly stable market environment with
only 13% percentage points separating
the strongest and weakest performer.
Currency movements have played a
pivotal role in determining demand across
the region; we explore its impact on sales
activity on page 3.
For many, having decided to buy a
ski home, choosing where to buy and
weighing up the pros and cons of the
different ski resorts can be a challenging
task. On pages 4 and 5 we outline some
of the key facts and figures for those
looking to take the next step and highlight
those resorts which sit within the crucial
two-hour drive time from airport to resort.
Swiss rules on who can buy what, and
where, can be complex for even the most
experienced property lawyer, on pages
6 and 7 we set out the rules for residents
and non-residents according to Lex Koller
and Lex Weber. Finally, we examine
how the French and Swiss markets
compare when it comes to demand and
supply indicators, property costs and
wealth forecasts.
SKI PROPERTY
INDEX
Knight Frank’s Prime Ski Property Index
tracks the price performance of prime
ski chalets across 15 key resorts in the
French and Swiss Alps.
French resorts occupy the top five
rankings this year as uncertainty
surrounding Lex Weber in Switzerland
dampened sales, and as a result
price growth.
Home to the world’s oldest ski resorts,
the French and Swiss Alps attract in
excess of 80m ski visits* per annum and
account for a third of the total number of
ski resorts worldwide.
In the past year ski homes in Europe’s
top resorts have continued on the same
trajectory that they have been following
since 2008; no radical acceleration or
deceleration just small single digit shifts
year-on-year.
Overall, the index proved largely static
with only a marginal 1% fall recorded in
the year to June 2015.
Val d’Isere and Meribel lead the 2015
rankings with the price of a typical 4-5
FIGURE 1
The Knight Frank Prime Ski Property Index, 2015
Annual % change to Q2 2015*
+5.8%
VAL
D’ISERE
+4.5%
MERIBEL
+3.2%
CHAMONIX +2.1%
COURCHEVEL +1.2%
1550 COURCHEVEL -1.4%
1650
VILLARS
-2.0%
GSTAAD
-2.0%
COURCHEVEL -2.4%
1850
KLOSTERS
-2.8%
ST
GERVAIS
-4.5%
VERBIER
-4.8%
DAVOS
-5.0%
-6.7%
CRANS
MONTANA MEGEVE
-7.2%
ST MORITZ
Source: Knight Frank Research, UBS (St Moritz, Davos & Klosters)
* Based on a 4-5 bed chalet in a central location within the resort. The index tracks prime as opposed to super-prime properties.
2
Please refer to the important notice at the end of this report
SKI PROPERTY REPORT 2015
RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
FINE HOMES
The performance of the Swiss resorts
in this year’s index is strongly linked to
whether non-residents are able to buy in
a given location and how close the local
commune is to its 20% threshold for
second homes (see pages 6-7). St Moritz,
for example, which saw values decline
by around 7.2% year-on-year has few
properties available for foreign buyers.
bedroom chalet in each resort rising by
5.8% and 4.5% respectively in the year
to June.
The length of Val d’Isere’s ski season
explains its long-standing appeal,
particularly with British buyers. Few other
Alpine resorts can guarantee sufficient
snow to ski during both the Christmas
and Easter holiday periods.
In Meribel’s case, a combination of its
location (in the heart of The Three Valleys)
and its pricing explains its 4.5% increase
year-on-year. Meribel provides better
value than Courchevel 1850, but can
compete with 1550 and 1650 in terms of
facilities. Investment in the form of new
residential developments such as Olympe
in Les Allues and Point de Vue in Meribel
Village has also helped to build confidence
amongst buyers.
CURRENCY
IMPACT
In real price terms, the exclusive resorts
of Courchevel 1850 and Gstaad come
out on top, with prime prices typically
around €25,000 and CHF30,000 per sq m
respectively. A prime ski chalet in Gstaad
is, on this basis, four times the price of an
equivalent property in the French resort
of St Gervais.
British buyers looking to purchase in
the French Alps are now in a stronger
position than two years ago, the GBP/
EUR exchange rate has moved from
approximately 1.17 to 1.43 during
this period.
In the French Alps, the focus of
sales activity in the last 12 months has
been within the €1.5m and €2.5m
price bracket.
FIGURE 3
FRANCE
The unpegged Swiss Franc
has rebounded whilst
the Euro has weakened
leading to repercussions
for foreign buyers.
Switzerland’s unpegging of the franc from
the euro in January 2015, whilst initially
unnerving for buyers, has rebounded.
Prior to its unpegging the pound stood at
CHF1.54, it dropped to CHF1.31 but by
August it had returned to CHF1.52.
The super-prime market (€15m+) has
Taking account of currency movements
slowed, partly because of the absence
only and focussing on the year to July
of Russian buyers but also because a
2015, a British buyer who bought a French
number of ultra high net worth individuals
property in July 2015 instead of a year
(UHNWIs) are reviewing their budgets
earlier will have saved approximately 11%,
1. RUSSIA
2. MIDDLE EAST 3. SWITZERLAND
4. FRANCE
5. UK
whilst in Switzerland the same buyer’s
and considering spreading their capital
budget would have shrunk marginally,
across multiple properties or assets in
different locations.
by 2% (figure 3).
€
€
€
€
€
2.9M
2.5M
2.7M
2.1M
1.8M
€
€
€
€
€
*2015 International Report on Snow and Mountain Tourism
FIGURE 2
1. RUSSIA
2. MIDDLE EAST
3. SWITZERLAND
4. FRANCE
The Alps: Average property price searched by nationality on
www.knightfrank.com Jan-Jul 2015
5. UK
€2.9M €2.5M €2.7M €2.1M €1.8M
€
1. RUSSIA
€
2. MIDDLE EAST
€
3. SWITZERLAND
€
4. FRANCE
€
5. UK
€2.9M €2.5M €2.7M €2.1M €1.8M
Source: Knight Frank Research
3
RESIDENTIAL
How much does a €1m property
cost a British buyer?
£
JULY 2014
£
JULY 2015
£791,000 £702,000
11%
CHEAPER
SWITZERLAND
How much does a CHF1m property
cost a British buyer?
£
JULY 2014
£
JULY 2015
£651,000 £661,000
2%
MORE
EXPENSIVE
Source: Knight Frank Research
Exchange rate as at 31 July 2014 and 2015
(figures rounded)
SKI PROPERTY REPORT 2015
RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
FINE HOMES
HOW THE ALPINE
RESORTS COMPARE…
VILLARS
CHF
GSTAAD
CHF
KM
CHF13,800
1,300m
125km
102cm
Renowned for its top boarding schools and its
alpine views this 1,300m resort enjoys 125km
of family-friendly slopes. Easily accessible, the
resort is only 1hr 30m from Geneva Airport.
FRANCE
POINTS TO
CONSIDER...
KEY
KM
CHF30,000 1,000m
220km
186cm
Its mountainous backdrop and prestigious
international boarding schools have made it
popular with the wealthy. Cable cars connect
the resort to various ski areas with 220km of
all-level slopes and the nearest international
airport two hours away in Geneva.
€
KM
Typical
Resort
prime price
height
(€/CHF per sq m) (m)
Total
pistes
(km)
Average upper Resorts accessible Knight Frank
sales office**
slope snow
in under 2 hrs
depth (cm)*
drive of an airport
ST GERVAIS
Espace Evasion
VERBIER
€
The Four Valleys
KM
€7,000
810m
445km
89cm
Located between Chamonix and Megeve,
St. Gervais offers the best of both resorts yet is
cheaper than both. A huge (and uncrowded)
ski domain, amazing views and a real dual
season destination.
CHF
KLOSTERS
ZURICH
CHF
KM
CHF21,000 1,500m
412km
152cm
This cosmopolitan resort rests on a sunny
plateau with impressive views of Mont-Blanc.
The resort, sat at 1,500m, forms part of
The Four Valleys ski area. Widely lauded for
its off-piste skiing Verbier also boasts 412kms
of marked runs.
325km
Davos
101cm
SWITZERLAND
Developed by the Rothschild family, Megeve
has the feel of a village rather than a resort and
is only 67km from Geneva. One of the most
luxurious resorts in the Alps, Megeve
accommodates a discreet clientele.
Crans
Montana
MERIBEL
The Three Valleys
Villars
DAVOS
CHF
1,450m
600km
121cm
GENEVA
Comprising 10 distinct villages, the Meribel
valley lies at the heart of The Three Valleys
giving it prime access to the world’s largest
ski domain. A great family resort with an
exciting village atmosphere.
Megeve
Bourg-SaintMaurice
Chambéry
Meribel
Courchevel 1550
Courchevel 1850
COURCHEVEL 1550
600km
€10,000
€
119cm
Prices in this expanding Courchevel resort are
expected to outperform the wider French Alps
due to its direct access to 1850 and the new
Aquatic centre. ‘Courchevel Village’ is coming
of age and is fast becoming one of the ‘go to’
destinations in The Three valleys.
€15,000
600km
155km
154cm
CHF
A vibrant and exciting town, Chamonix is the
spiritual heartland of the Winter Olympics.
Within a short distance of Geneva Airport,
Chamonix is a must for those looking for the
ultimate weekend bolthole in the heart of The Alps.
Val
d’Isere
119cm
CRANS MONTANA
Courchevel
1650
CHF
CHF15,000
€
Located on the opposite side of the valley from
1850 and 1550, the village of Moriond offers
sunny south facing slopes and large well-built
chalets on the Belvedere slopes. Direct access
to the new aquatic centre will drive demand.
350km
One of the oldest villages in The Alps with its
3,000 year old spa, this 1,822m village is the
home of the Cresta run. It offers 350km of
slopes as well as the “White Turf” horse race
and Polo on the frozen lake.
VAL D’ISERE
The Three Valleys
119cm
KM
CHF24,400 1,822m
COURCHEVEL 1850
KM
1,650m
1,035m
138cm
ST MORITZ
KM
The Three Valleys
KM
1,550m
€
COURCHEVEL 1650
The Three Valleys
€
CHAMONIX
St Gervais
311km
A truly international resort, Davos boasts 58
ski lifts, 311km of slopes and 75km of crosscountry ski tracks along with world class
restaurants and hotels, all within a 2-hour
drive of Zurich.
Verbier
Chamonix
LYON
€15,200
KM
CHF14,300 1,560m
KM
€15,000
4
St Moritz
Gstaad
Lake Geneva
€
138cm
Klosters
KM
1,113m
305km
In contrast to neighbouring Davos, Klosters has
a romantic village feel. A favourite of the British
Royal family, Klosters benefits from a cable car
to the Davos ski area whilst the Madrisa region
above the village is perfect for beginners.
MEGEVE
€
KM
CHF14,200 1,124m
Espace Evasion
€14,000
€25,000
Espace Killy
€
KM
1,850m
600km
119cm
The superstar of The Three Valleys, Courchevel
1850 prides itself on excellence in everything it
does. From fine dining to queue free skiing via
‘palace’ graded hotels and chalets, this resort
is unique.
RESIDENTIAL
€17,000
KM
1,850m
300km
122cm
The best in high altitude skiing The Alps has to
offer, it has some of the longest winter seasons
and even summer glacier skiing. Val d’Isere,
with Tignes, forms the iconic Espace Killy
ski domain.
140km
Most buyers arriving in the Alps have a
basic understanding of the region having
holidayed there for several years. To aid
the next stage of a buyer’s decisionmaking process we have drawn on the
knowledge of Knight Frank’s network
of 15 offices across the Alps. We have
highlighted some of the key facts and
figures that merit consideration, from the
altitude of the resort to the average snow
depth (on the upper slopes) and the
length of pistes available.
For most, finding a ski home which is
under a two-hour drive of Geneva or
Zurich Airport is a top priority. Megeve,
St Gervais, neighbouring Combloux, and
Chamonix rank highly in this regard but
even Verbier in Switzerland is around the
2-hour mark.
Owners looking to rent out their property
during the summer months show a
Typical prime price (€/sq m)
preference for the mid-altitude resorts
Resort height (m)
(Chamonix, Megeve, Crans Montana)
Average weekly snowfall (cm)*
where non-snow sports proliferate
Total Pistes (km)
resulting in longer occupancy periods.
Resorts such as Chamonix and St
Gervais stand out as strong buying
CRANS MONTANA
opportunities. Here, prime prices sit at or
€
below the average for the region
1,500
149
(€10,000 per sq m) yet both are easily
accessible, offer uncrowded ski domains
and operate as dual season destinations.
KM
KM
1,500m
The graphic alongside
highlights some of the
key considerations which
even the seasoned
pro-skier may have
overlooked when
deciding where to buy.
149cm
A combination of two villages, Crans and
Montana, this year-round resort at an altitude
of 1,500m, offers 140km of slopes alongside
two international golf courses. With the arrival
of the new international school this resort is
becoming popular with families wanting to
relocate to Switzerland permanently.
Those wanting a fresh challenge each
visit should focus on those resorts
sat within The Three Valleys (Meribel
and the Courchevel resorts) or within
Switzerland’s Four Valleys (Verbier) which
provide 600km and 412km respectively
of pistes to explore.
Source: Knight Frank Research, Ski Club of Great Britain
* Based on 2014-15 season **Knight Frank network includes
representative offices
5
1
No limit
Max size?
No limit
FRENCH VS. SWISS ALPS
FRANCE
SWITZERLAND
No limit
No limit for
EU residents
Max size?
No limit
Where?
20% threshold for
second homes
per commune
No limit
c. 250 sq m of
official living space
No limit
“Holiday/Ski Zones”,
plus Lugano and
Montreux. 20%
threshold for second
homes per commune
Max size?
Where?
Switzerland remains a long-term
opportunity for investors. Although foreign
purchasers are faced with a higher entry
cost due to the strength of the Swiss
Franc, the country still offers an unrivalled
FRANCE
level of privacy
andSWITZERLAND
security.
AS A NON-RESIDENT
AS A RESIDENT
The Alps: Who can buy what,
and where?
The availability of quality stock is at its
highest for 3-4 years
200and
sq m those
of officialwanting
No limit
livingconsidering
space
to Max
sellsize?
are increasingly
offers. Switzerland,“Holiday/Ski
as a result,
may
Zones”,
plus be
Luganoto
andresembling
Montreux. The a
the closest it has been
20% threshold for second
buyer’s
for homes
several
years. applies
No limit
per commune
Where? market
Two regulations operating in tandem have
stymied the Swiss property market. Lex
Koller (in force since 1983) restricts where
Max size?
No limit
No limit
and what non-residents can buy, allowing
them to only purchase in certain “tourist”
areas and up to a maximum
20% thresholdof
for c.250
second sq m
No limit
homes
per commune
Where? living
of official
space
(figure
4).
AS A RESIDENT
FIGURE 4
AS A NON-RESIDENT
No limit
“Holiday/Ski Zo
20% threshold
No limit
The French and Swiss Alps now present buyers,
No limit
both lifestyle purchasers and investors alike, with an
No limit
interesting scenario, one that differs significantly from
200 sq m of official living space three years ago.
Where?
The introduction of Lex Weber in March
2012, imposed a 20% cap on the number
Source: Knight Frank Research
FIGURE 5
Purchase and sale costs compared
Based on a non-resident purchasing a $1m property in Paris/Lake Geneva as a second home and
owning it for 5 years*
FRANCE**
€
7%
Purchase
Source: Knight Frank Research
SWITZERLAND***
€
4%
Sale
3%
Purchase
5%
Sale
*Notes: Excludes Swiss residency costs. France example based on a resale property. Assumes 5% capital growth pa. Purchase costs include stamp duty,
transfer fee, registration fee, legal fees where applicable. Sale costs include agent’s fees and legal fees where applicable.**Based on a resale property.
***Data corresponds to Lake Geneva
6
200 sq m of off
AS A RESIDENT
Where?
“Holiday/Ski Zones”, plus Lugano and Montreux. The 20%
threshold for second homes per commune applies
AS A RESIDENT
No limit
No limit
No limit
20% threshold
of second homes within any Swiss
commune. After a period of consultation,
full details of the rule, which applies to
both residents and non-residents alike,
are
to be published within
AS expected
A NON-RESIDENT
the next 6-8 months ending a period
of uncertainty.
size?
Inevitably,MaxSwitzerland’s
property
market
Where?
has been No
subdued
in200
the
interim. Few
limit
sq m of official
living unsure
space
have opted to purchase
whether
“Holiday/SkitoZones”,
plus
they would only be allowed
sell their
No limit
Lugano and Montreux. The
property to permanent
residents
in
future,
20% threshold for second
homes
per commune
applies
effectively halving their
pool
of potential
buyers. The result has been fewer
AS A RESIDENT
transactions and modest price falls (see
FRANCE
SWITZERLAND
index results).
No limit
No limit
Apart-hotels
are one potential
loophole.
Classified as a commercial interest, some
owners could add a concierge,
or
20% thresholdpool
for second
No limit
gym and market their homes
units per
ascommune
a serviced
apartment thereby bypassing the second
home cap. Demand for such properties is
likely to strengthen.
Going forward, we expect some of the
smaller and less well-known Swiss ski
resorts, where second homes are well
below the 20% threshold, to see above
average price inflation as Lex Weber
pushes buyers off the beaten track.
By spring 2016 we expect the Swiss
market to be gaining traction. Greater
certainty in the market will mean a return
to a simple equation between supply
and demand, sales volumes will increase
but asking prices will not be as open to
negotiation as they currently are.
France, too, is entering a new phase.
Buyers who opted to sit on the side
lines until the Eurozone crisis had run
its course are now active once more,
buoyed by low interest rates, the upturn
in foreign demand due to the weak euro
and the recent low level of construction
which has insulated prices.
With a general election in France
expected in May 2017 the country’s
adherence to its strict austerity
AS A NON-RESIDENT
Max size?
SWITZERLAND
AS A RESIDENT
200 sq m of official living space
AS A NON-RESIDENT
SWITZERLAND
No limit
AS A NON-RESIDENT
FRANCE
FRANCE
M
W
M
W
SKI PROPERTY REPORT 2015
RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
FINE HOMES
programme is expected to wane, buyers
are, as a result, looking more favourably
on France.
The European Court of Justice’s ruling
that France can no longer apply the socalled ‘social charge’ on rental income
and capital gains – a measure introduced
by Francois Hollande in 2012 and which
equates to a saving of up to 15.5% for
all non-residents – has fed through to
buyer sentiment.
The number of sales completed in
Megeve in the first six months of 2015
was more than double the number
of sales during the whole of 2014.
Chamonix has seen record prices
achieved in price per sq m terms.
Where possible, especially at the top end
of the market, buyers are using a level of
debt against the property (in some cases
50%+) to help leverage any potential
euro risk and reduce their exposure to
France’s wealth tax.
Megeve and Chamonix will see demand
strengthen further. Megeve, a resort
developed by The Rothschilds, will see
RESIDENTIAL
FIGURE 6
Market indicators
FRANCE
SWITZERLAND
Base interest rate
0.05%
-0.75%
GDP growth, full year 2015 forecast*
1.2%
0.8%
Average annual wage
€36,066
CHF 86,812
New construction volume
Low
Low
Forecast growth in UHNW
population 2014-24
+14%
+22%
Source: IMF, WealthInsight, OECD
*As at October 2015
a new Four Seasons Hotel open in
autumn 2016 which will cement the
resort’s reputation as a prime midaltitude resort.
Chamonix, although still at heart the
true mountaineer’s resort, it has one of
the largest resident populations in the
Alps (10,000+) which has enabled it to
raise its offer in terms of retail, sports
and amenities with luxury outlets now
commonplace and a large range of
non-ski activities on offer.
We expect the Swiss to increase their
market share in the French Alps over the
next few years. Outside the jurisdiction
of Lex Weber, Swiss buyers can take
their pick of the French resorts, many
located within a 90-minute drive of
Geneva and crucially find chalets at a
third of their own market’s value.
The rise of the year-round resort
million
The latest passenger numbers from 12.5
Geneva and Lyon Airports provide
positive news for those looking to rent.
12.0
During the 2014/15 season the two
airports cumulatively saw a million
more passengers arrive during the 11.5
summer months (May to October) than
they did during the winter ski season11.0
(November to April).
This deliberate re-branding of the 10.5
Alps as a summer destination is also
influencing buyers in Switzerland.
10.0
Summer
The increasing number of top
7
international schools, the provision of
non-snow activities (hiking, cycling,
golf etc), as well as cultural and music
festivals has led some second home
buyers to look instead at permanent
residency allowing them a greater
choice in terms of properties, location
and size.
FIGURE 7
FIGURE 8
Reasons for purchasing
a ski home
Year-round tourism
2013/2014
2014/2015
Airport arrivals: Geneva and Lyon
2013/14 vs 2014/15
45%
13.0
Winter = Nov to Apr
Summer = May to Oct
LIFESTYLE
REASONS
12.5
2013/2014
2014/2015
Winter = Nov to Apr
Summer = May to Oct
12.0
10%
million
Around 55% of Knight Frank’s buyers
are looking to rent out their ski home.
Few (around 10%) are buying solely
for investment purposes; instead most
want their apartment or chalet to be
cost neutral. Most owners in the French
Alps aim to cover their taxe foncière
and taxe d’habitation, the property’s
maintenance costs and ideally the
flights and ski pass expenses for the13.0
family’s visit each year.
RENTAL
INVESTMENT
11.5
11.0
45%
10.5
10.0
LIFESTYLE &
INVESTMENT
Source: Knight Frank Research
WINTER
SUMMER
WINTER
SUMMER
Source: Aeroports de Lyon and Geneve Aeroport
GLOBAL BRIEFING
For the latest news, views and analysis
on the world of prime property, visit
KnightFrankblog.com/global-briefing
RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
Sofia Song
Executive Vice President,
Elliman Insights
Direct: 212.303.5285
[email protected]
Kamila Akshalova
Research Analyst, Elliman Insights
Direct: 212.303.5303
[email protected]
ALPINE SALES
FRANCE
Roddy Aris
+44 20 7861 1727
[email protected]
Mark Harvey
+44 207 861 5034
[email protected]
SWITZERLAND
Alex Koch de Gooreynd
+44 20 7861 1109
[email protected]
Alasdair Pritchard
+44 20 7861 1098
[email protected]
PRESS OFFICE
Michelle Perfanov
Senior Director of
Corporate Communications
Direct: 212.891.7189
Mobile: 917.412.3645
[email protected]
RECENT PUBLICATIONS
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Report
Guide to buying property in
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France Buyers Guide
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2016 FORECAST
RISK MONITOR
For the latest news, views and analysis
on the world of prime property, visit
Global Briefing or @kfglobalbrief
-10% -5%
Ukraine and Greece were the weakest
housing markets in 2015, recording
price falls of 12% and 5% respectively
5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Source: See main table on page 2
Turkey leads the rankings with prices rising
18% during 2015. Increasingly viewed as
a safe haven for Middle Eastern investors,
Turkey is bridging East and West whilst also
seeing strong population growth.
Although house prices in Hong Kong
increased in 2015, the rate of growth has
slowed significantly from 17% in the year to
September to 7% in the year to December
2015. The slower rate of growth is attributable
to rising supply (more than 11,200 homes
were completed in 2015), as well as China’s
financial market volatility and the expectation
of increasing interest rates.
Data from China’s National Bureau of
Statistics shows house prices rose marginally
in 2015 (0.4%) having reached their peak
Our outlook for 2016 is muted. We expect
the index’s overall rate of growth to be
weaker in 2016 than 2015. The global
economy is experiencing a potentially
dangerous cocktail of low oil prices, a strong
dollar and a continued slowdown in China.
FIGURE 2
Australasia on top
Average 12 month % change, 2015
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60%
AUSTRALASIA 12.4%
40%
20%
0%
20%
“Our
outlook for 2016 is muted.
0.6
We expect the index’s overall
rate
of growth to be weaker in
0.4
2016 than 2015.”
Housing affordability, or the lack of it, is
rising up policymakers’ agendas worldwide.
According to the latest data from the OECD,
which measures house prices against
incomes for 24 of its 34 members, Belgium
and New Zealand are currently the world’s
least affordable markets, whilst home
ownership is most accessible in South Korea
and Japan (figure 3).
Shift in global house prices
40%
KATE EVERETT-ALLEN
0.8
International
Residential Research
Australasia was the strongest-performing
world region in 2015, buoyed by the strong
performance of New Zealand and Australia,
both of which saw annual price growth in
excess of 10%.
Countries split by rate of annual price change
60%
1.0
in the first quarter of 2014. Cities such
as Shenzhen and Shanghai continue to
outperform the national average due in
part to favourable government policies and
strong demand in first-tier cities.
FIGURE 1
80%
INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY
0%
Notes and Sources: See main table on page 2
Forty-three of the 55 housing markets
tracked in our Global House Price Index saw
prices rise (78%), up from 10 countries (19%)
in the aftermath of Lehman’s collapse in Q2
2009 (figure 1).
80%
Belgium and New Zealand are the
least affordable countries when house
prices are compared with incomes
Despite the fragile state of the global
economy the world’s housing markets
recorded 3% growth on average in 2015.
2014 Q4
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MARKET OUTLOOK
Shift in luxury residential prices
Proportion of cities by annual price change
Vancouver
Sydney
Shanghai
Melbourne
Monaco
Cape Town
Miami1,3
Bangkok
Seoul
Bengaluru
Jakarta
Madrid
Los Angeles1,3
Beijing
Tel Aviv
Zurich
Nairobi
Guangzhou
New York1,3
Moscow
Delhi
Edinburgh
Mumbai
London
Tokyo²
Dublin
Rome
Kuala Lumpur
Vienna
Paris
Singapore
Hong Kong
Geneva
Taipei
INCREASE
SLIGHTLY
Partner, Residential Research
“Despite strong performances
by some cities the overall
picture is one of converging
market performance.”
Turkey leads the rankings with prices
ending the year 18% higher
FIGURE 2
Prime price performance by city
Annual % change to Q4 2015
DECREASE DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY SLIGHTLY
ASSESSING THE PERFORMANCE OF PRIME
RESIDENTIAL CITY MARKETS IN 2016
KATE EVERETT-ALLEN
Forty-three of the 55 countries tracked
by the index recorded positive annual
price growth in 2015
INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY
FIGURE 1
PRIME CITIES
FORECAST REPORT
It is unclear at this stage, given the
removal of stimulus in some markets (as
well as policy changes, new taxes and
fees in others) whether a global economic
slowdown would once again prompt strong
capital flows into luxury property in the
same way it did post-2008.
Results for Q4 2015
The Knight Frank Global House Price
Index increased by 3% in 2015, up from
2.3% a year earlier
Source: Knight Frank Research
2015 Q4
The world’s top cities – the definitive safe
havens following the global financial crisis –
are seeing prime price growth cool.
The key risks on the horizon for luxury
residential markets, as highlighted in our
Prime Cities Forecast report, include
further rate rises by the Federal Reserve
and heightened geopolitical tension. Add
to this the recent stock market volatility,
jitters over the economic news emanating
from China, the slump in oil prices and the
fragility of emerging markets and the risks
look to be mounting.
INCREASE
SLIGHTLY
Despite some strong performances, the
overall picture is one of converging market
performance. Two years ago the gap between
the strongest and weakest-performing market
stood at 43 percentage points, now this
figure is closer to 29 percentage points.
In New York, although the strength of the
US dollar, coupled with an increase in
luxury supply, has limited price growth to
some extent we do not expect the new
federal regulations for cash buyers to have
a significant impact.
DECREASE DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY SLIGHTLY
Asia’s strong performers have switched
places. Three years ago Jakarta,
Guangzhou and Hong Kong dominated
the top of the price rankings but Shanghai,
Bangkok and Seoul have now usurped their
Asian neighbours.
Prime central London’s marginal increase
of 1% in 2015 underlines the extent to
which buyers have been absorbing the
stamp duty changes announced in 2014.
2013 Q4
Taipei has taken the title of weakest
performing market from Singapore
Sydney shares similar market fundamentals
as Vancouver with prices up 14.8%
year-on-year. However, with the economy
slowing and the introduction of fees for
foreign buyers the rate of price growth is
expected to cool in 2016.
40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Australasia was the strongestperforming world region in 2015
Vancouver leads the rankings for the third
consecutive quarter. Luxury residential
prices increased by 24.5% in 2015. Tight
supply, strong demand – boosted by a
weaker Canadian dollar – and the absence
to date of any market intervention explains
the acceleration in prices.
60%
Five cities recorded double-digit
annual price increases in 2015
2012 Q1
2012 Q2
2012 Q3
2012 Q4
2013 Q1
2013 Q2
2013 Q3
2013 Q4
2014 Q1
2014 Q2
2014 Q3
2014 Q4
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
Vancouver leads the rankings,
recording price growth of 24.5% in 2015
RESIDENTIAL
The Global House Price Index* increased by 3% in 2015, up from 2.3%
in 2014. Concerns over the global economy in 2015 failed to dent
buyer confidence; instead the lingering low interest rate environment
influenced sentiment. Kate Everett-Allen examines the latest figures.
Although five cities recorded double-digit annual price growth in
2015 the overall narrative is one of converging market performance.
Kate Everett-Allen examines the latest data.
Results for Q4 2015
The index increased by 3.9% in 2015,
up from 3.3% in 2014
FINE HOMES
GLOBAL HOUSE PRICES DEFY
ECONOMIC CLIMATE IN 2015
2012 Q4
FINE HOMES
VANCOUVER SEES
STRONGEST RISE IN LUXURY
RESIDENTIAL PRICES
2011 Q4
PRIME GLOBAL
CITIES INDEX
2010 Q4
RESIDENTIAL
2009 Q4
FINE HOMES
2008 Q4
RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
MIDDLE EAST 6.7%
LATIN AMERICA
4.6%
NORTH AMERICA 4.6%
EUROPE 3.7%
AFRICA 2.0%
ASIA 1.9%
RUSSIA & CIS -6.2%
Source: Knight Frank Research
*Weighted by PPP
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0.5
0.4
The Wealth Report
- 2016
Prime Cities Forecast
Report - 2016
Prime Global Cities
Index Q4 - 2015
Global House Price
Index - Q4 2015
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
Douglas Ellimann Knight Frank Research Reports are available at elliman.com/reports-and-guides
RESIDENTIAL
Important Notice
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published for general information only and
not to be relied upon in any way. Although
high standards have been used in the
preparation of the information, analysis, views
and projections presented in this report, no
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or reference to the contents of this document.
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