THEORY INTO PRACTICE IN DORDRECHT Francis Cheung The

THEORY INTO PRACTICE IN DORDRECHT
Francis Cheung
The Netherlands' Ministry of Transport
Ad Akkies
Municipal Authority, Dordrecht
1.
INTRODUCTION
In the Netherlands, public transport planning plays an important role in strategic town
and land use planning. Researchers and policy analysts are fully aware that public
transpoff operates in a social, economic and political context and that transport projects
should utilize scarce resources efficiently to achieve stated policy goals and objectives.
The Dutch government is at present pursuing radical policy changes. Governments at
different levels invest selectively to ensure long term sustainable development. In public
transport, policy measures that are under consideration include giving relief to
congestions by raising the share of public transport in total travel demands and
improving financial performance of operators by reducing their reliance on government
subsidy. The emphasis is to provide high quality services to meet the mobility needs of
the public. At the same time, the government strives to minimize direct interventions
and to reduce the level of public expenditures. The chosen strategy is to achieve greater
efficiency in sector management and to place more reliance on the vigour of the market.
Proposals have been put forward to bring about decentraiisation, deregulation and
privatisation. Within the public transport sector, plans have been drawn up. The basic
principles have been endorsed by different parties in the Dutch Parliament.
Dordrecht is a medium size city, with a land area of 80.5 square kilometres and a
population of 116,200 inhabitants. The transport policy of Dordrecht Municipal
Authority is designed to complement its adopted land Use strategy and to promote the
goals set out in its economic development plan. The municipality has prepared a strategic traffic and transport plan to meet the predicted growth in travel demands. This plan
contains new initiatives, with an overall aim to improve the quality of the living
environment and to stimulate economic growth in the region.
The aim of this paper is to describe the transport and land use policies'in Dordrecht, with
particular attentions given to the three-bus system. It is an operational concept which has
been devised by Dordreeht Municipal Bus Company (SVD) which carries at present on
average over 20,000 passengers daily. The new scheme has been formulated to stimulate
patronage and to generate additional revenues. It is also designed as an essential part of
the municipality's strategy to enhance economic growth, to increase operating efficiency
and to encourage modal split in favour of public transport. Dordrecht has chosen an
integrated approach in transport and land use planning.
[Dordrecht and its surrounding areas are also served by regional buses that are run by
another operating company known as Zuid-West Nedertand (ZWN). It is one of the
daughter companies owned by the regional transport company known as the VSN
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Group. The two operators co-operate in some areas and compete in others. For focus,
this paper only examines the impacts of changes introduced by SVD, which is fully
owned by Dordrecht Municipal Authority. However, there are plans to merge the urban
and the regional operators in Dordrecht region to form a new company in the near
future.]
Section 2 provides background information on Dordrecht and describes the policy
visions which the Municipal Authority has adopted. Section 3 gives an overall picture of
the traffic and transport policy in the Netherlands. Particular attentions will be given to
Dordrecht's public transport policy and plans. Section 4 describes the 3-bus system that
has been implemented to provide better services and to increase ridership. Section 5
reviews the research programme that has been formulated as a joint project to monitor
and to evaluate the effects of the 3-bus system. Section 6 ends with a few concluding
remarks on the lessons learnt so far.
2.
DORDRECHT, A CITY WITH VISIONS
2.1
Background Information
Dordrecht is a historical city in the Province Zuid Holland, about 20 kilometres southeast of Rotterdam. It is situated on the mouth of the river Oude Maas. It has many
ancient churches, memorable folklores and historical monuments of exquisite beauty.
Most recently is the discovery of the oldest building still in use in the Netherlands.
Architectural research has con.timed that the property in Wijnstraat was constructed at
the end of the 15th century. Dordrecht is well-known for its ingenuity in adopting
policies and action plans to strengthen its position as one of the leading cities in
Randstad Holland. Major cultural events such as Dordt Monument Days and the
Belcanto Festival are two examples. The city has taken actions to renovate the historical
inner city and is credited for its experiments with the introduction of City and Service
Bus. In short, Dordrecht is a progressive city. Its efforts are noteworthy in the light of
changing social and economic circumstances. Many traditional industries have left the
region and the city has to compete fiercely with other locations to attract new, emerging
enterprises. The municipality recognizes these trends and has faced up the challenge
with new ideas.
2.2
Business Plan for the Inner City
The Development Plan for the historical Inner City is an example of modem day urban
reconstruction and rehabilitation. After a comprehensive review of its needs and
opportunities, the municipality has chosen to adopt an integrated approach. It has a clear
vision of its goal: the conservation and redevelopment of the inner city. Practical objectives are: enlarging employment opportunities and providing a stronger regional function,
serving as the commercial and business centre for the stu-rounding areas. Business Plan
for Inner City (Ondememingsplan Binnenstad) could be seen as a Master Plan for the
preparation of new projects and the formulation of action programmes.
Within such a framework, transport planning is seen as an important policy instrument
that could contribute towards the achievement of its goals. Accessibility is vitally
important for the well-being of local residents and for the fortune of diverse economic
activities in the region. Public enquiries showed that the historical inner city cannot
sustain uninhabited growth in car traffic and improved public transport is essential for
balanced growth and urban development. Congestion is not only costly in terms of
longer journey time and higher operating costs but also increases emissions which are
harmful to the environment.
With supports from the European Union and the Netherlands' Ministry of Transport,
Dordrecht embarked on an investigation in 1993 to determine the feasibility of the City
Bus concept. The idea is to use small size (8 metre 20-seater) electric or LPG buses to
serve environmentally sensitive neighbourhoods in the inner city in place of the standard
12 metre diesel buses. In March 1995, the City Bus was introduced as an experiment. It
had two ~outes in the form of circular loops, serving the two halves of the inner city with
a 5 minutes headway in peak periods.
2.3
Planning for the Environment
A city with visions also means close attention to its physical, working and living
environments. Dordrecht has an active Environmental Policy, using research studies and
public enquiries to monitor the progress and to evaluate the effectiveness of policies.
Important environmental issues are discussed in public and the opinions of the inhabitants consulted.
Envimnmentai issues raised include the public's concem for the increasing use of the
private car. Statistics showed that, since 1990, the number of private cars in Dordrecht
had grown from 36,491 in 1990 to 39,181 in 1994, an increase by 7.4%. Car ownership
per thousand inhabitants was 334 in 1990, rising to 346 in 1994, an increase of 3.6% in
four years. Even though these figures were below the national average (which were 370
in 1990 and 384 in 1994), the rising trend was disturbing in a city where public transport
provisions had been considered to be good. Additional analysis showed that car use had
stabilised since 1990 with 16,500 km per car per annum, a figure which did not differ
significantly from that for the whole of the Netherlands (which had a very slight increase
of 1% between 1990-93) or for the Province Zuid Holland.
In terms of modal split, the figures showed that cycling was the most popular form of
transport, except for evening outings. For journeys within the city, 30-35% of the
population used the car as main mode and this figure rose to 55% for trips made in the
evening. On the other hand, car occupancy for evening outings was higher. For joumeyto-work by the adult population, 46% normally used the car, 35% by bicycles or mopeds
and 11% by bus or train.
D0rdrecht has adopted a policy in favour of a healthy and safe environment. This means
choosing to curtail further increases in car use by introducing traffic management
schemes, promoting car pooling, providing better pedestrian facilities and encouraging
public transport usage. Supporting policies include substantial reductions in parking
spaces in the inner city, construction of new parking facilities at major interchanges and
general increases in parking charges. Introduction of the City Bus is a specific example
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of concerted efforts to overcome the problem of fragility in sensitive urban
environments.
3.
TRAFFIC AND TRANSPORT POLICY
The administrative structure of the Netherlands is founded on the basis of the division of
responsibilities between central government, provincial government and local
(municipal) authority. The aims of the traffic and transport policy for all three tiers are,
generally speaking, identical. They are based primarily on four axioms that have been
laid down in the Second Transport Structure Plan (SVV-2), namely: improved
accessibility, guided mobility, quality environment and road safety. The objectives are
to promote sustainable development and to improve the quality of life. Policy guidelines
favour a shift in modal split from the car to public transport, especially for journeys to
work in situations where and when public transport is a viable altemative.
The S W - 2 complements the Dutch Government's policies on land use planning and on
the environment, as embodied in the National Environmental Policy Plan (NEPP). An
important feature was the apportionment of responsibility, with defined targets, to
different sectors of the community. Transport was clearly ear-marked as an action area.
In the more recent NEPP-2 (end 1993), particular emphases have been given to
implement programmes which have, as their target, desired behavioural changes e.g.
reducing car trips by providing adequate services and high quality public transport
facilities. Clear targets and provision of information are an integral part of the public
awareness campaign.
The policy visions of Dordrecht correspond closely with those set out by the national
government. The municipal authority has predicted that the car stock in Dordrecht will
increase yearly by 500 extra cars and the traffic is forecasted to increase by 60%
between 1986 and 2010. If nothing is done, the expected increase in travel demands
cannot be absorbed and a grid-lock situation in many parts of the city will be a regular
feature. Worsening accessibility will have negative consequences for the economic wellbeing and damaging effects on the quality of life.
In its policy statement, Dordrccht makes an explicit distinction between economic and
social accessibility. The former relates to freight traffic and business journeys which are
vital for the proper functioning of the city as a commercial and business centre as well as
for ensuring a cost effective production process in the industrial sector. The later is
serving personal mobility for trips such as shopping, recreation and social visits, that are
necessary for the community to function as a social entity. If a choice has to be made,
the municipality will give priority to economic accessibility. [This is a policy which is in
line with that of central government.] However, social accessibility is by no means
neglected; resources are allocated to improve the quality of public transport and to
.finance the provision of pedestrian facilities and cycling right-of-ways. The stated policy
is to raise the share of the bicycle in journeys to work by 50% between 1986 and 2010.
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4.
THE THREE-BUS SYSTEM
4.1
Background Leading to the 3-Bus System
The public transport system in Dordrecht has in recent years undergone dramatic
changes to the structure of the bus network. On the basis of a decision by the Municipal
Council on 4 January 1994, a trial was carried out in 1994-95 to establish the feasibility
of the City Bus concept and to test the new vehicles under normal working conditions
with fares-paying passengers. The evaluation study, which reported in November 1995,
showed that the concept would be workable and recommended full implementation.
But, the study team advised revisions to the trial network and proposed that SVD should
deploy .L_PGbus instead of the electric bus which had been used during the trial period.
In November 1995, Dordrecht Council formally approved the proposal to introduce the
Service Bus system, using low floor vehicles to serve all the districts in Dordrecht. The
idea is to design this particular system to suit the speciaI needs and requirements of the
elderly and the disabled. The number of elderly people in Dordrecht is about 20,000
now and still rising. The newly introduced law (Wet Voorzieningen Gehandicapten)
regarding special services for handicapped people has made financial provisions and the
Council wishes to take on board this administrative change in its integrated approach to
transport and social service planning.
The Council's decisions provoked a fundamental reconsideration of the original proposal
and officers finally recommended a complete restructuring of the public transport
system hi Dordrecht to give more coherence to the full network and to cater for the
special travel requirements for different types of passengers. The three-bus system
concept is born.
4.2
The Three-Bus System
The new system officially started on I June 1997. It has 3 distinctive sub-systems, each
designed to meet the specific needs of different sections of the population and for
different journey purposes in Dordrecht.
* Express Bus Net provides fast, direct connection with limited stops and high
frequency in peak periods, linking the suburban areas with the Central Station (CS)
of Netherlands' Railways (NS).
* City Bus Net enables deeper penetration within the historical town centre and high
frequency services linking the inner city with Central Station; a fleet of LPG buses is
used in two loops.
* Service Bus Net enhances the connectivity of the neighbourhoods in the suburb and
links the suburban districts with the town centre. The drivers are trained so that they
are fully aware of the extra attentions which senior citizens, passengers with
disability or mothers with prams or young children might have. There are fixed bus
stops; but, upon special request, the driver can make a stop at a point convenient for
those passengers in need and, if necessary, gives assistance.
On all buses, the national fare and ticketing system (which has been in use in the
Netherlands since 1 January 1980) applies. In addition, to increase the attractiveness and
to provide extra convenience, passengers using City Bus can buy a separate ticket for f 1
Dutch guilder per single journey instead of f 1.50 at the current rate. This gives a
discount of 33.3%; but, transfer to other buses is not permitted. Special approval has
been obtained from the Netherlands' Ministry of Transport which has overall control of
fares policy in urban and regional public transport.
The 3-bus system is a form of "Made-to-Measure Public Transport" designed with in
mind the differences in the mobility needs of different groups of passengers. As a
marketing focal point, each bus net has its own livery, colour and logo which can be
found on the chassis of the vehicle and bus stop sign-posts. Passengers can recognize
them easily. The intention is to heighten public awareness. Such changes are accompanied by a general advertising campaign to inform the public and to seek support for their
own public transport system. Colour brochures are given away by special information
buses and also distributed door to door. There has been widespread press coverage at
local and national levels, combined with interviews and film report of the new system
on television.
Ext~ress Bus is represented by the colour ~een with capital letter E as its logo. The net
is particularly attractive for commuters who are in a hurry to get to their work place. All
Express bus routes terminate at NS Central Station which is an Inter-city and
International railway station with fast connections along the Amsterdam-The HagueRotterdam-Brussel axis. There are also plans to redesign the bus stations at NS Central
Station, to introduce new traffic management scheme in the station precinct and to
improve general access for pedestrians. Improved interchange facilities mean passengers
can then transfer with ease and convenience from one mode to another. Direct routing,
higher operating speed and early tumround mean the operator can increase the service
frequency without resorting to extra buses. However, for passengers who need to travel
further to the city centre, they have to change to City Bus at CS. It is estimated that such
inconvenience would reduce ridership by no more than 12.5%. Provided that passengers
do not cease to use public transport altogether, the impact will be moderate and not
financially damaging.
_City Bus has white colour and the logo letter C. The net is designed to enable 20
departures an hour (offering a 3-minute headway in the peak and 10 minutes in the offpeak), with service schedule to match that of the Express Bus net whenever possible.
The smaller 20-seater vehicles enable better manoeuvre to negotiate the narrow streets in
the historical town centre. The LPG engine has lower noise, less vibration and fewer
emissions. The new vehicles also benefit from lower energy consumption. Passengers
find the City bus smart in appearance, clean and comfortable. The special fare is set low
and the ticket can be bought directly from the driver without having to pay a premium
fare (which is a general practice in the Netherlands to encourage pre-purchase and to
reduce boarding time). For those who have used the approved list of garages to park
their car and then use the City Bus to continue their journey to the inner city, one person
is allowed to travel free on showing the parking payment slip.
352
Service Bus is represented by the colour blue and the letter S. The net enhances the
accessibility of the neighbourhoods in various districts. Almost all S-buses terminate at
the new bus station by the Merwede Hospital. This feature vastly improves the
connectivity for trips having purpose as journey to work, health care or hospital visits. In
addition, S-bus stops almost anywhere in the districts; this offer reduces efforts and
provides additional convenience for infirm passengers. The vehicle is also designed to
transport disabled people in wheel-chairs. The distance between stops is one every 100
to 150 metres whereas siting of the bus stop is never further away than 200 metres from
the residents. The proximity of the bus route to living quarters, the possibility of
alighting at request and the training of drivers to assist passengers in needs illustrate the
concern of the municipality and SVD to take care of the specific needs of particular
categori.e_so f passengers. All these extra services are provided without premium fare for
the users, giving a new dimension to fulfill the social function of public transport.
4.3
Financing the New System
The total cost of the 3-bus system is estimated to be f 25 million Guilders whereas
previous network costed roughly f 18 million. The municipality has made provision for
a sum of f 5 million over a three years period to cover expected financial losses in the
annual fixed starting and operating costs. Remaining cost has to be financed out of
expected increase in fares revenue and (consequently) higher revenue support from the
central government. The Council forecasted that the number of passengers will increase
by 25% in three years. Achievement of predicted maximum occupancy will increase
over the years reaching 60% in the first year, 77.5% in the second and 92.5 % in the
third. The share of public transport in the modal split is expected to rise from 7% to
8.5% in the same period.
SVD has set itself a set of targets with aspirations for substantial g o w t h in ridership and
major improvement in operating performance, including higher cost recovery ratio. The
transport planners are realistic about the size and extent of the challenges that are
associated with a fundamental restructuring of the network. To accomplish the goals and
objectives, a number of proposals have been approved by the Council. Measures
include: efficiency improvement and cost saving schemes within the operating
company; higher income as a consequence of increasing patronage; closer working
relations with the regional bus company ZWN; effective supporting policies being
enforced by the Council e.g. traffic management schemes and bus priority measures;
and, higher average fare by introducing a new fare zone in Dordrecht.
4.4
New Fare Zone as Additional Measure
At present, the whole city falls within one fare zone and this means in effect that all trips
within Dordrecht have the same fare irrespective of distance travelled. Under the new
scheme, the zonal boundary for several districts will be altered. Journeys to and from the
rezoned districts have to pay higher fares. It is forecasted that an extra zone will result in
net annual increase in revenues by over f 1 million guilders and improvement in the cost
recovery ratio by 6%. This is an initiative from the municipality and SVD. Under
existing financial arrangements, operators do not benefit directly from extra revenues
that come from fares increase. All fare revenues go to the central government who will
353
then apportion the incomes between operating concerns on the basis of an agreed
formulae ussing standardized costing procedure and having passenger-kilometre as an
indicator of performance. However, there are proposals in the pipe-line to change the
subsidy payment system to reimburse the operators with an amount equal to the size of
fares revenue collected and to honour increases in ridership. Dordrecht would like to
benefit from the proposed changes.
The original proposal was to introduce the extra zone at the same time as the introduction of the 3-bus system. To enable the evaluation study to determine the net effect
of having an extra zone from those associated with the 3-bus system, Council officers
recommended that the introduction date should be postponed to 1 January 1998, the date
normally_ set for fares revision in the country. The Council agreed.
5.
MULTI-YEAR RESEARCH PROGRAMME
Much can be learnt from the actual implementation of the 3-bus system. Dordrecht has
boldly taken the conceptual plan and the blue print from the drawing table and put them
into practice at the service of the passengers. It is important to monitor and to evaluate
the outcomes. The Netherlands' Ministry of Transport has given its approval and agreed
to join forces with the Municipal Authority and SVD to undertake a joint study to
determine the effects of the 3-bus system and the extra zone, as well as the individual
components which form the building blocks of the new concept.
Results o f the monitoring and evaluating study will enable the Council and the operator
to make immediate changes to the service schedule, to design additional policy
measures or to find-me particular operational aspects such as routing. Lessons can be
learnt at different stages to determine if additional actions are required to correct
unwarranted side effects. At the same time, areas of oppommities may reveal themselves which will enable planners to sharpen the measures to make fuller advantage of
possibilities. If the basic concept is successful, it will be attractive for other cities in
similar situations to develop likewise plans to suit their requirements. If there are
weaknesses, it is hoped that the research study will pinpoint areas where refinements or
modifications are required.
On the basis of this philosophical standpoint, Transport Research Centre in Rotterdam
(which is an inherent part of the Ministry of Transport) is given the task to formulate the
research questions, to identify possible approach and to determine methods appropriate
to the task. After close consultations with different parties, a research programme has
been agreed on.
5.1
Policy Issues
Three specific issues are singled out for investigation.
1. What are the effects by the introduction o f the new, high quality public transport
system in Dordrecht?
2. What are the consequences of introducing a new zone?
354
3. Axe the observed results directly transferable to other cities of similar nature or in
comparable situations? What lessons can be drawn?
The researchers recognize that at the same time as the introduction of the 3-bus system,
the municipality and the provincial government are likely to introduce supporting
measures or implementing other schemes which are part of the on-going transport
programmes. It would be pretentious to assume that this project will be able to identify
accurately and measure precisely the individual contributions of different measures.
Nevertheless, it is necessary to recognize the role of autonomous development and
external effects and to make appropriate corrections (if possible) in order to determine
the net effects that are attributable to the implementation of the 3-bus system and an
extra zone.
5.2
Research Objectives
The primary objective of evaluation is to identify and measure the positive and negative
effects associated with the 3-bus system and having an extra fare zone. This means in
practice three aspects which require statistical analyses:
* the volume o f ridership (changes in total ridership in before and after situations and
at various stages of project implementation);
* effects on existing and new passengers with particular reference to each and everyone
of the three bus nets;
* consequences for and reactions from different sections of the population (users and
non-users), for different journey purposes, with different demographic and socioeconomic characteristics and for people residing in different areas (rezoned districts
and other areas).
The research findings will be useful for the municipality to refine their transport policy
and for SVD to dovetail the service schedules, system choice or detailed route planning
to enhance passenger satisfaction. The results will also be useful for the Ministry of
Transport to learn from practical experience how local plans and initiatives can promote
the policy goals as laid down in SVV-2 and other policy documents.
5.3
Research Approach and Methods Used
The study is supervised by a Steering Committee with officials from the Transport
Ministry, the municipal authority and the operating company. It is agreed to have an
quantitative study with emphases on the operating and financial consequences of the
new system. It is important to take account of the reactions of the operating staff and to
assess the extent to which the new system could improve performance of the operator
and satisfy the mobility needs of different sections of the community. An integrated
approach is adopted and the research is in 3 phases which correspond with the phased
introduction of different policy measures.
Phase 1 began in June 1996 with a series of consultations between the Ministry, SVD
and the municipality on the 3-bus system. This led to the formulation of a research
strategy and the drawing up of a study programme. A before-and-after approach has
355
been chosen. The aims of the before study are to ascertain the ridership and to evaluate
passenger perception of and satisfaction with different aspects of the bus services
provided by SVD in the base situation. The before study took place in March 1997. The
results will serve as the benchmark for subsequent comparisons.
Phase 2 began on 1 June 1997 with the offical start of the 3 bus system. At present, two
after studies have been planned and approved. The first will be held in November 1997,
six months al~er the official starting date of the 3-bus system. Phase 2 will end with an
evaluation report from the consultant on the short term effects of the 3-bus system.
Phase 3 will begin on 1 January 1998 with the introduction of an extra fare zone. The
second a_~er survey will be in March 1998 to appraise the immediate effects of having
an extra zone and to evaluate the longer effect associated with the 3-bus system. The
consultant has to report to the Steering Committee before June 1998 so that research
results and findings are available for decision-making.
[It is the intention that, if successful and financially possible, there will be additional
after studies in subsequent years.]
Four consultants were invited to prepare study proposals which were then assessed by
members of the Steering Committee. Mu-Consult BV of Amersfoort was chosen to
carry out the study and Mobiel Centre Marktonderzoek BV in Almere to undertake the
field work. The study team has proposed a series of before and after studies using
passenger counts, questionnaire surveys (on the bus or at bus stops) and telephone interview surveys with passengers recruited from the questionnaire surveys. In addition,
information collected by the operator regularly to monitor usage and for financial
planning will be used to analyse trends and to determine changes in ridership and in
journey patterns.
It is also agreed that the City Panel, which contains a representative sample of
households in Dordrecht, will provide an additional source of information. It is a product
of the Social Geographic Bureau (a research department within the municipality).
Questionnaire surveys are regularly used to ascertain the views and attitudes of people in
Dordrecht on different policy issues and to determine possible behavioural changes. The
intention is to use the City Panel to survey the reactions of those who do not use public
transport or stop using the buses after the changes. Moreover, it provides additional data
such that an indication could be given regarding autonomous developments or external
effects that might affect public transport patronage in different phases during the
research period e.g. changes in car ownership, relocation of work address, changes in
household circumstances, etc.
6.
CONCLUDING REMARKS
At the time of writing, the before study has been carried out with high (and mainly
positive) response from passengers. The introduction of the new network has generated
substantial interest not only within Dordrecht but also in the whole country owing to the
uniqueness of the concept and the scale of service changes at a stroke. People are
356
anxious to know the outcomes of the scheme; but, it is advisable to walt for a while
before valid conclusions can be drawn. Staff and passengers have to familiarize
themselves with the changes. Confronted with new possibilities, passengers have to
learn via trial and error. Therefore, journey patterns will take time to stabilize. Ridership
figures are also liable to be affected by turbulence at the time of introduction. Moreover,
summer vacation period generates patterns quite different from normal usage because
most school trips are excluded and tourists patronage is particularly high in a tourist
resort town such as Dordrecht.
Generally speaking, the first reactions from passengers and staff are positive. The
friendliness of the City Bus staff, the co-operative attitudes of the Sei'vice Bus driver and
the spe_e.dyservice offered by the Express bus have been cited as examples. Some of the
starting difficulties, such as inadequate capacity on some mutes in peak periods have
been resolved e.g. leasing buses from other cities. However, the impossibility of having
the same livery on time has created confusion. The realignment of the bus terminal at
NS-CS and removal of some bus stops for the Express Bus Net has caused initial
difficulties for some passengers. Efforts have been taken to mitigate such starting
problems. Otherwise, the introduction has been a moderate success. Usable conclusions
can be drawn only when the planned before and after studies have been completed and
the results analysed.
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