November 2015
Transcription
November 2015
VinaLand Fund Update To be read in conjunction with the Notice of the Extraordinary General Meeting and Circular 29 October 2015 Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam 1 Disclaimer The information contained herein has been prepared by VinaCapital Limited (the “Company") and is subject to updating, completion, revision, further verification and amendment without notice. The information contained herein has not been approved by any listing authority or any investment regulator. The information does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities nor shall they or any part of them form the basis of or be relied on in connection with, or act as any inducement to enter into, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Forward-looking information is based on the estimates and opinions of the Company's at the time the statements are made. The Company assumes no obligation to confirm or update forward-looking statements should circumstances or management's estimates or opinions change. No undertaking, representation, warranty or other assurance, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Group or any of its directors, officers, partners, employees, agents or advisers or any other person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein and no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of them for any such information or opinions or for any errors, omissions, misstatements, negligence or otherwise for any other communication written or otherwise. The information herein may not be reproduced, re-distributed or passed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose. By accepting receipt of this document, you agree to be bound by the limitations and restrictions set out above. Neither these pages nor any copy of them may be taken or transmitted into or distributed in any jurisdiction where the distribution of such material would be prohibited under the jurisdiction’s applicable securities laws. Any failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of national securities laws. 2 Content 1. Vietnam macroeconomic & property market update 2. Overview of VNL Fund 3. Review of the last 12 months and since EGM 2012 4. Strategy going forward 3 Vietnam macroeconomic update Investor confidence is improving with large manufacturers shifting from China to Vietnam while infrastructure and construction are gaining momentum and boosting demand for property Growth has been consistent and stable… Non-Performing Loan ratio: 3.25% (2012: 17.0%) Currency: Devalued by 5%, stable relative to peers, cheaper assets for foreign investors 250 Nominal GDP (LHS) 10.0 Real GDP growth (RHS) 200 8.0 150 6.0 100 4.0 50 2.0 0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F Banks are consolidating, 25 mergers have created 12 consolidated banks with more to come Borrowing rates, have reduced from 15% (2012) to between 7% and 10% …while lending rates have been trending downwards 60% 50% Credit growth 40% Lending rate 30% 20% 10% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F Sources: VCG Research, Vietnam’s Government Statistics Office (GSO) 4 Key macroeconomic impacts on the property market Consumer confidence remains strong ANZ consumer confidence index 145 140 135 130 125 120 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Gold, a traditional alternative to property, has lost 39% in the last four years Increasing Urbanisation will continue COMEX, USD/oz 2,000 26% in 2013 (22.9m) 33% in 2030 (33.7m) 1,750 1,500 1,250 1,000 Oct 10 Apr 11 Oct 11 Apr 12 Oct 12 Apr 13 Oct 13 Apr 14 Oct 14 Apr 15 Oct 15 5 New regulatory impact on the property market New Housing Law and Real Estate Business Law, both effective 1 July 2015 is generating more interest in VNL’s projects, however legislation needed to define details. Foreign Ownership • Established a transparent legal framework to help protect home buyers and increase the confidence of foreign investors • Relaxing foreign ownership regulations and subsidized credit are helping to boost demand for real estate • Activity is currently in the Condominium market which provides higher margins to developers Dai Phuoc Lotus in 2015 Sale of Land Plots only • Foreign real estate developers can now sell land lots with completed infrastructure (subject to approval) • VNL is securing revised licensing that will enable sale of land lots only Dai Phuoc Lotus – 3 years ago 6 Property market update - Condominium & landed property sector Vietnam's unsold land and built inventory has fallen sharply since Q1 2015 to USD2.68 billion (18%). 80% of buyers are interested in units at around USD 220,000 Condominiums in Q3 2015 • Condominiums currently drive the market, the mid-to-high end segment provides better margins for developers • 30% increase in foreign investor enquiries since July 2015 • 10,114 units launched (up 200% YOY) in HCMC, while Hanoi launched 9,160 units (up 112% YOY) • Medium term concerns exist on the ability of the market to absorb new supply Landed Property in Q3 2015 VNL’s Azura condominium project, Danang • Active progress was only observed in projects that have been partially completed or near completion. • Investors are increasingly sophisticated, demanding quality builds, infrastructure, amenities and better repayment plans VNL’S Danang Beach Resort & Golf Course project, Danang 7 Contents 1. Vietnam macroeconomic & property market update 2. Overview of VNL Fund 3. Review of the last 12 months and since EGM 2012 4. Strategy going forward 8 VinaLand Limited (VNL) overview Fund summary NAV: NAV per share: Portfolio summary US$388.3m US$0.90 (30 September 2015) (30 September 2015) Share price: US$0.60 (29 October 2015) Discount: -33.6% (29 October 2015) Market cap: US$256.3m (29 October 2015) Total shares outstanding: 427,091,266 (29 October 2015) Current assets: 23 Divestments: 23 full and residential unit sales Debt: Fund level (ZDPs) : 7.5% NAV Project level (Bank) : 19.7% NAV Fund Cash balance: USD29.3m (incl. ZDP) VNL’s Azura Apartment Tower adjacent to newly completed VinGroup Retail Centre which opened in July 2015. Azura is now 90 percent sold. 9 Portfolio breakdown Portfolio breakdown Hanoi Sector 9.2% Hanoi region NAV% Hospitality 2.3% Township 20.6% Mixed use 34.8% Residential 42.3% Development status Danang 23.9% Central region Land banking 7.4% Planning stage 62.2% Development stage 29.0% Nha Trang Operating assets 1.4% Valuation 66.9% HCMC region Ho Chi Minh Assets not yet revalued Assets revalued 4.9% 95.1% Note: NAV at 30 September 2015 10 Top ten investments Investment No. Location Sector VNL % VOF % Site area (ha) Portfolio NAV (USD)1 NAV % 1 Century 21 South Residential 75.0%2 25.0%2 30.1 69.9 17.3% 2 Danang Golf and Beach Integrated Development Central Residential 75.0% 25.0% 248.3 54.2 13.4% 3 Dai Phuoc Lotus South Township 54.0% 18.0% 198.5 34.3 8.5% 4 VinaSquare South Mixed Use 46.5% 15.5% 3.1 33.7 8.3% 5 Pavilion Square South Mixed Use 90.0% 0.0% 1.4 31.8 7.9% 6 Times Square Hanoi North Mixed Use 65.0% 0.0% 4.0 27.0 6.7% 7 Aqua City South Township 40.0% 0.0% 250.2 23.2 5.7% 8 Trinity Park South Residential 75.0% 25.0% 33.7 20.3 5.0% 9 Green Park Estate South Mixed Use 62.9% 33.9% 15.7 17.9 4.4% 10 Capital Square (P1+P2+P3) Central Mixed Use 61.7% 20.6% 6.6 16.3 4.0% Total of Top 10 Investments (USD million) 328.7 81.1% Remaining Investments (USD million) 76.5 18.9% Total Portfolio (USD million) 405.2 100.0% Note: 1. NAV at 30 September 2015 2. Economic interest of VNL and VOF in Century 21. 11 Performance since 2012 EGM • VNL’s share price increased 47% to 60cents, from a closing price of 41cents in November 2012 (EGM) • NAV per share is 90 cents compared with US$1.11 in November 2012 • Trading discount to NAV is currently 33.6% compared to 63.3% in November 2012 Share price and NAV per share and average trading volume Per share data 1.20 Trading volumes (m) 2.0 1.11 1.8 1.00 0.80 0.90 Trade discount as at 30 Nov 2012: 63.3% Trade discount as at 29 October 2015: 33.6% 0.60 0.40 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.60 1.0 .8 0.41 .6 .4 0.20 .2 - .0 Average trading volume NAV per share Share Price 12 Performance since 2012 EGM - share buy back • VNL has spent USD30.8m to buy back 56.3m shares since the 2012 EGM at an average price of 54.7 cents • Since inception, VNL has spent USD39.6m repurchasing 72.9m shares (14.58% of shares issued) which have been cancelled. USD Million shares VNL share price vs. Share buyback since EGM 1.00 10 7.8 0.80 8 7.4 0.60 0.60 5.3 4.4 0.41 3.7 0.40 4 3.0 2.6 2.5 1.8 1.2 1.1 Share buyback volume 1.0 0.5 2 Sep-15 Aug-15 Jul-15 0.2 Jun-15 May-15 Apr-15 Mar-15 Feb-15 Jan-15 Dec-14 Nov-14 Oct-14 Sep-14 Aug-14 Jul-14 Jun-14 May-14 Apr-14 0.1 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14 Dec-13 Nov-13 Oct-13 Sep-13 Jul-13 Jun-13 May-13 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.30.3 0.4 Aug-13 0.6 Apr-13 0.3 0.4 Mar-13 Jan-13 Nov-12 - Dec-12 0.6 Feb-13 0.20 3.9 Oct-15 2.2 4.1 6 - Share price Figures are as at 29 October 2015 13 Contents 1. Vietnam macroeconomic & property market update 2. Overview of VNL Fund 3. Review of the last 12 months and since EGM 2012 4. Strategy going forward 14 Key project licensing achievements VNL's key licensing achievements on current assets Phu Hoi: IL/MP/LURs Danang Golf 220Ha: LURs Nam Phat: MP/LUR Romana Phan Thiet: More LURs Century 21: MP Times Square: LUR Long An IP: MP Dai Phuoc Lotus : IL/MP/LURs My Gia: LURs Capital Square DN Phase 2 & 3: IL/MP Aqua City: IL/MP Note: 1. IL: Investment License 2. MP: Master Plan 3. LUR: Land Use Right Certificate Saigon Design Center: MP Saigon Phu Yen Hotel: MP Pham Hung Rd: LUR Pavilion: MP Danang Marina: Revised MP Pham Hung: Revised IL and MP approval to include residential use My Gia: More LURs Capital Square DN Phase 2: Land fee payment and LUR is ongoing Green Park Principal approval to convert the land from factory use to residential and commercial purpose The Garland: 48/53 LURCs has been issued into the Buyer’s names VinaSquare: Revised IL & LUR 15 Performance over past 12 months and since 2012 EGM Second AGM • Shareholders supported all six resolutions recommended by the Board; (November 2014) • Three directors were re-appointed, as was PricewaterhouseCoopers (Hong Kong) as independent auditor to the Company; • An amendment to the Company’s Articles of Association was also supported Divestment Conditions • High cost of borrowing, low liquidity, broad reaching lack of confidence; 2013-2014: • Delays in completion of project licensing; • Reduced ability to dispose of projects, larger projects in particular; • Focused on transactions that were able to achieve NAV or close to NAV, avoiding a fire sale 2015: • Noticeable improvement in liquidity within the real estate market; • Progress with project licensing has increased VNL’s ability to dispose of projects 16 VNL’s divestment achievements since EGM November 2012 VNL has completed 12 full and 1 partial divestments at an average premium to NAV of 15.6% NAV at exit Net proceeds to VNL Cummulative Net Proceeds USDm 250 EGM 2012 Target 232 214 196 179 161 143 125 107 100.4 89 81.3 71 62.2 54 13.6 15.3 2.8 2.7 4.5 4.6 1.8 1.7 Sheraton Hotel Signature 1 Land Hao Khang Land Prodigy Hotel May-13 Jul-13 Nguyen Du Office Jan-13 66.1 31.4 18 3.0 3.2 65.5 70.8 51.4 36 6.3 2.7 3.1 100.4 9.0 Oct-13 Dec-13 13.5 16.1 Vina Properties Hotel Jan-14 19.1 19.9 Hospitality Holdings Jul-14 9.5 10.9 Marie Curie Jul-14 3.3 3.2 0.5 0.6 4.6 4.7 Capital SG Quy Nhon Vung Bau Square phase Phu Quoc 1 Nov-14 Mar-15 Mar-15 6.8 10.5 14.8 19.1 HAS Project NPV Project Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Nov-15 17 VNL’s divestment achievements since EGM November 2012 Project: Nguyen Du Project: Sheraton Project: Signature 1 Project: Hao Khang • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Location: Hanoi Type: Operating office building Exit announcement: January 2013 Net proceeds: $3.2m Net proceeds/NAV at exit: +7.9% Net proceeds/NAV at EGM: -6.1% Location: Nha Trang Type: Operating hotel Exit announcement: May 2013 Net proceeds: $3.1m Net proceeds/NAV at exit: +15.1% Net proceeds/NAV at EGM: +15.1% Location: HCMC Type: Resi development site Exit announcement: July 2013 Net proceeds: $2.7m Net proceeds/NAV at exit: -3.4% Net proceeds/NAV at EGM: -3.4% Location: HCMC Type: Resi development site Exit announcement: October 2013 Net proceeds: $4.6m Net proceeds/NAV at exit: +2.8% Net proceeds/NAV at EGM: -7.8% Project: Prodigy Project: Vina Properties Project: Hospitality Holdings Project: Marie Curie • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Location: Ha Noi Type: Operating hotel Exit announcement: December 2013 Net proceeds: $1.7m Net proceeds/NAV at exit: -5.5% Net proceeds/NAV at EGM: -31.7% Location: HCMC Type: Operating hotel Exit announcement: January 2014 Net proceeds: $16.1m Net proceeds/NAV at exit: +19.2% Net proceeds/NAV at EGM: +8.2% Location: various Type: Operating hotels Exit announcement: July 2014 Net proceeds: $19.9m Net proceeds/NAV at exit: +4.5% Net proceeds/NAV at EGM: +215.3% Location: HCMC Type: Office/Resi development site Exit announcement: July 2014 Net proceeds: $10.9m Net proceeds/NAV at exit: +14.3% Net proceeds/NAV at EGM: +24.6% Project: Saigon Quy Nhon Project: Vung Bau Phu Quoc Project: HAS Project: NPV • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Location: Quy Nhon Type: Operating hotel Exit announcement: March 2015 Net proceeds: $0.6m Net proceeds/NAV at exit: +27.3% Net proceeds/NAV at EGM: +24.5% Location: Phu Quoc Type: Hospitality development Site Exit announcement: March 2015 Net proceeds: $4.7m Net proceeds/NAV at exit: +2.9% Net proceeds/NAV at EGM: +1.6% Location: Quang Nam Type: Township development site Exit announcement: August 2015 Net proceeds: $10.5m Net proceeds/NAV at exit: +53.5% Net proceeds/NAV at EGM: +36.3% Location: Danang Type: Residential development site Exit announcement: October 2015 Net proceeds: $19.1m* Net proceeds/NAV at exit: +29.4% Net proceeds/NAV at EGM: +51.7% * US$15.8m collected Capital Square phase 1 partial divestment Future pipeline divestments • Completed 12 full and 1 partial divestments since the EGM 2012 • • • • • • • • Net proceeds of USD100.4m which is 15.6% above NAV at exit; Location: Danang Type: Commercial development site Exit announcement: November 2014 Net proceeds: $3.2m Net proceeds/NAV at exit: -3.5% Location: All regions. Approximately 8 additional disposals under negotiation and /or at various stages of documentation • VNL continues to pursue a number of disposals and is working with both foreign and local investors. 18 Re-activation of project development The Ocean Apartment – Danang Block A: • 46 units were re-launched in April 2014. • 100% sold by 30 September 2015. • Construction completion achieved in June 2015. • Buyer handovers commenced on 5th July and a total of 36 apartments (80%) have been handed over to Ocean Apartments – completed Block A owners as at 29 October 2015 . • Average selling price : USD1,593/sqm. Block B • 70 units planned for the second tower. • Proposed sales revenue of approximately USD9.75m. • Launch date pending possible disposal. Perspective of the Ocean Apartment – Block B 19 Re-activation of project development The Point Phase 1 and 2 – Danang • 40 three-bedroom pool villas fronting the Dunes Golf Course. • Phase 1 (20 villas) re-launched in October 2014. Phase 1 infrastructure and villas due for completion by the end of October 2015. • Phase 2 (20 villas) launched in April 2015. Under-construction. • Average selling price : USD267,000 per villa. • 68% sold (27 out of 40 villas) as at 29 October 2015. Perspective of The Point General Arrangement of The Point Current construction works as at 29 October 2015 20 Re-activation of project development The Azura Tower in Danang • 225 units launched in 2010 • Sales stalled during market slowdown • 90% sold as at 29 October 2015 • Expect to sell down all remaining unsold stock by the end of 2015 • Average selling price : USD185,000/unit. • VNL had divested the land portion of Phase 1, excluding the Azura Tower to VinGroup which opened on 30 June 2015 • Both improved market in Danang and the new retail mall have acted as a catalyst to increase sales and will improve marketability of VNL’s adjoining sites. Azura Apartment Tower adjacent to newly completed Vincom Retail Centre 21 Development residential sales – 2012 to 2015 (YTD) • • • • 2012 – 20 apartments sold 2013 – 33 apartments sold 2014 – 35 apartments sold 2015 – 60 apartment sold (YTD) • 2010 - 2013 – 15 apartment sold • 2014 – 19 apartment sold • 2015 – 12 apartment sold (YTD) 89% sold 20 33 35 60 Year 2012 Year 2013 Year 2014 Year 2015 (YTD) 15 19 12 Year 2010 2013 Year 2014 Year 2015 (YTD) 100% sold 22 7 • 2014 – 7 villas sold • 2015 – 22 villas sold (YTD) • 2013 – 17 villas sold • 2014 – 26 villas sold • 2015 – 5 villas sold (YTD) Year 2014 73% sold 17 26 5 67% sold Year 2013 Year 2014 90 • • • • 2012 – 13 land plots sold 2013 – 37 land plots sold 2014 – 90 land plots sold 2015 – 102 land plots sold (YTD) Year 2015 (YTD) 13 96% sold Year 2012 Year 2015 YTD) 102 37 Year 2013 Year 2014 Year 2015 (YTD) 22 Development and marketing awards 2015 International Recognition – Development & Marketing Awards in 2015 In May 2015, VNL projects won three awards at the 2015/16 International Property Awards (Asia Pacific Region), which are among the region’s most prestigious real estate industry accolades 1. Best Golf Development in Vietnam for Danang Golf 2. Best Residential Development in Vietnam for Dai Phuoc Lotus 3. Best Development Marketing in Vietnam for VinaLiving On 14 August 2015, VNL projects received two awards at the inaugural Vietnam Property Awards 2015 1. Best condominium development for The Ocean Apartments at Danang Golf and Beach Resort, and 2. Best Villa development (resort) for The Point at Danang Golf and Beach Resort. 23 Contents 1. Vietnam macroeconomic & property market update 2. Overview of VNL Fund 3. Review of the last 12 months and since EGM 2012 4. Strategy going forward 24 Recap: EGM 2012 targets and performance to date EGM held in November 2012 • In November 2012, shareholders supported a recommendation from the Board for a new 3 year term to target the realization of approximately USD250m from disposals and make distributions to shareholders of approximately USD142m during the period November 2012 to November 2015. Performance since EGM 2012 • Delay in divesting projects resulted in a higher proportion of net proceeds collected being diverted to capital commitments, securing project licensing /approvals & operating expenses. Forecast shortfall at November 2015 • Forecast estimated realisation shortfall at November 2015 of approximately USD145m, and distribution to shareholders shortfall of approximately USD110m. 25 Positive platform Q4 2015 and 2016 positive platform • The market did not recover in 2013 and 2014 as anticipated • However in 2015, significant improvement in liquidity & growing confidence in the property sector has enabled the Vietnamese real estate market to commence a meaningful recovery. • It is expected that the remainder of 2015 and 2016 will continue to be positive and this will maintain a platform for VNL to dispose of several larger projects and also achieve growth in values. 26 Indicative realisation and distribution profile – Illustrative outcome Forecast to Nov 2016 Actual to Oct 2015 USDm EGM 2012 Target Realisation EGM 2012 Target Shareholder Distribution Realisation (Actual and Forecast) Shareholder Distribution (Actual and Forecast) 350 Forecast Actual 300 270 250 250 200 142 150 106 125 100 33 50 0 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 The figures shown on this slide are illustrative estimates only. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results or the actual performance of the Fund or any investment discussed in this presentation may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such illustrative estimates. Any projections, market outlooks or illustrative estimates are forward-looking statements and are based upon certain assumptions. Other events which were not taken into account may occur and may significantly affect the performance of the Fund or any investment. Any outlooks and assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. 27 VNL’s pipeline divestments - rationale of indicative realisation profile Realisation Forecast Rationale EGM 2012 Target Realisation EGM 2012 Target Shareholder Distribution Realisation (Actual and Forecast) Forecast to Nov 2016 Actual to Oct 2015 Shareholder Distribution (Actual and Forecast) 350 Forecast Actual 300 250 270 250 200 142 150 106 125 100 50 0 Nov-12 33 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 • Currently not less than 8 pipeline project disposals under discussion, negotiation, or at various stages of documentation. • Past experience with real estate disposal transactions in Vietnam has shown that not all transactions reach a successful closure. • Subsequently, assumptions adopted to arrive at an indicative estimated realisation forecast have taken into account market risks and challenges and assumptions have been made that some disposals will not proceed to closure. • Based on these assumptions it is estimated that by 21 November 2015 there will be sufficient contracted disposals with a deposit paid by the purchaser to achieve the following divestment value Based on various assumptions, the estimated realisation forecast from November 2015 to November 2016 will result in a total divestment value of up to approximately USD164m. The figures shown on this slide are illustrative estimates only. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results or the actual performance of the Fund or any investment discussed in this presentation may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such illustrative estimates. Any projections, market outlooks or illustrative estimates are forward-looking statements and are based upon certain assumptions. Other events which were not taken into account may occur and may significantly affect the performance of the Fund or any investment. Any outlooks and assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. 28 EGM and AGM: 24 November 2015 The 2015 EGM & AGM will be held on; Tuesday 24 November 2015 in London, U.K. (for all details including time & venue refer to separate notice of the EGM and AGM) • At the AGM, four ordinary resolutions will be proposed to shareholders, including adoption of the consolidated financial statements, re-appointment of two directors and re-appointment of the auditor. • At the EGM, one special resolution and one ordinary resolution will be proposed to shareholders to implement a proposed modification and limited extension of the Company’s realisation strategy for a further period of up to twelve months Full details relating to the EGM and AGM resolutions including Board recommendations to shareholders are set out in the Notice of EGM and Notice of AGM All shareholders are encouraged to vote. 29 VinaCapital Group 17th floor, Sun Wah Tower 115 Nguyen Hue, District 1, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam P: (84 8) 3821 9930 F: (84 8) 3821 9931 Email: [email protected] Website: www.vinacapital.com Ho Chi Minh City 30 Hanoi Danang Nha Trang Singapore