Danmarks Eksportråd

Tyrkiet - Vækstmotor for danske virksomheder?
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v/ generalkonsul Jesper Kamp, Generalkonsulat i Istanbul
AGENDA
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The Consulate General in Istanbul
Turkey – facts and figures
Turkey – growth engine
Export related facts and figures
FDI related facts and figures, opportunities and challenges
Cultural differences
Gezi Protests – politics in Turkey
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CONSULATE GENERAL ISTANBUL
• Trade Council
– Export promotion
– Investment – Invest in Denmark
– Financial – EKF
• Citizens Services – visa, passport etc.
• Culture
• Administration
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TRADE COUNCIL SERVICES
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Market research
Market monitoring
Partner & supplier identification
Sourcing
Establishment of businesses
Company visits and preparation of meeting programs
”Growth House" – ”Your partner in Turkey”
Lobby support & PR advisory
Joint Export Promotion events
Participation in trade fairs
Information on customs, export, and import
Personnel recruitment
TURKEY – FACTS AND FIGURES
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TURKEY WITH NUMBERS
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COUNTRY FACTS
• Population: 76 million (14.2 million in Istanbul)
• Young population – avg. 29 years – youngest average age
compared to EU28
• Biggest TV producer in Europe
• 36 million tourists in 2011
• 31 entrepreneurs within top 225 in the world
• Top 10 automobile producer in the world
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TURKEY – GROWTH ENGINE
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2023 VISION
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Become one of the top ten world economies
Gross domestic product of $1 trillion by 2014
Gross domestic product of $2 trillion by 2023
Increase annual Turkish exports to $500 billion
Per capita income of $25,000
Foreign trade volume of $1 trillion
Increase the employment rate by 10 points to a working population
of 30 million
• Reduce the unemployment rate to 5 percent
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ECONOMIC INDICATORS
• 17th biggest economy in the world (2012) – the goal is to be 10th biggest in 2023. From $820 billion today to $2.000
billion in 2023
• Growth-market: 8.9% in 2010 and 8.5% in 2011 (2.2% in 2012 and 3-5% in 2013-2016)
• A threefold increase in GDP during the last 10 years: approx. $ 15,000 (2012). 2023 target: $ 25,000
• Expected increase in purchasing power: +40% (2010-2017)
• Healthy public finances (budget deficits approx. 8% of GDP in 2013 and public debt approx. 35% of GDP + increase
state revenue)
• Dismantling of unemployment (approx. 9% in 2013)
• Dismantling of inflation (approx. 6% in 2012) – At present 8%
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ESTABLISHMENT AND SOURCING
• Easy to establish a company (Ltd., JV, rep. office)
• Electronic register of company/digitised
• Free Trade + Industrial Zones
• Corporation tax: 20%
• Possible to buy land (expropriation protection)
• Investment incentive (vat, customs, tax, social welfare, rates, land)
• Highly educated workforce (21 million students)
• Modern production facilities (quality)
• Low minimum wage – approx. DKK 2.500 for unskilled
• Hard working people – avg. 53 hours pr. week / 4 days of illness pr. year
• Availability ”near market” (fly directly to Aalborg, Billund, and
Copenhagen)
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EASE OF DOING BUSINESS IN TURKEY
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OPPORTUNITIES
• Increased standard of living (big spending, demands for services,
infrastructure, and environment)
• EU-admission (approximation to EU standards on environment)
• Increased energy needs (doubling next 10 years)
• Increased privatization and PPP (energy, infrastructure, services)
• Huge investments in infrastructure
• Ambitious targets for renewable energy (20 GW of wind, 3 GW of solar +
biomass)
• RE = 30% in 2023 ($130 billion investment)
• Expecting 70 million tourists in 2023
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OPPORTUNITIES
Istanbul as a market
• Biggest city in Turkey (approx. 50-60% of the Turkish economy)
• Financial centre
• The municipality is in the top 50 of the world's largest "businesses"
• More than100 shopping malls
• Office space doubled in 3 years to 5 million
• Sold more Ferrari's than in Italy per year
• 5th place of cities with USD billionaires
• Metropolis –”the elite”
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CASE – HUMMEL TURKEY
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Deniz Erda had extensive experiences from Mavi Jeans
Opened first store in march 2010 in Istanbul
Today 175 mono stores and shop in shop
Sold around 1 million items by the end of 2012
Expecting a turnover of DKK 130-145 million in 2014
Most sold shoes in Turkey
3 key elements:
– High quality
– Strong marketing
– Detail-experience
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MACRO EVALUATIONS OF OPPORTUNITIES IN TURKEY
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Political
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Economic
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Business
environment
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Government getting similar results in this election compared to
previous results (52%).
Eastern affairs
Despite a lack of progress in the EU accession process, Turkey is still
a major convergence play for investors.
The government programme is likely to increase the opportunities
for investment in privatised state firms.
The government has pushed forward new pension and labour code
reforms that aim to lower labour costs for businesses.
Government has demonstrated a renewed commitment to the
privatisation of state-owned firms. e.g. road tenders, thermal power
plants.
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DANISH-TURKISH RELATIONSHIP
• More than 5% of the Danish population (> 350,000 people) come to
Turkey on holiday every year. In 2013 Turkey became the biggest
Danish tourist destination.
• There is an important Turkish community in Denmark, which
strengthens our ties.
• Trade, commerce, and investments are growing in Turkey.
• 514 Danish companies in all areas are established in Turkey incl. wellknown global companies such as Novo Nordisk, Maersk, Lego, and
Vestas. Growing interest to Turkey among Danish SME’s.
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EXPORT RELATED FACTS & FIGURES
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TRADE
• Total trading volume USD 389 billion in 2012 (60% import / 40% export)
• Danish goods export to Turkey: DKK 4.1 billion
Danish goods import from Turkey: DKK 5.6 billion (2012)
• Member of G-20, OECD, OIC, WTO, NATO
• Customs union in EU (1995) and a number of free trade agreements with
Third World Countries
• Huge commerce with EU (approx. 40% of export and 35% of import)
• Strategic centre – East/West
• Turkish people are used to work with Europeans
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COMPARISON OF DANISH AND EU15 EXPORT TO TURKEY
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Denmark above the average
Mostly pharmaceutical products (high-tech)
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EXPORT & IMPORT- DENMARK TO TURKEY (2002-2013)
Source: Denmark’s Statistic Bank
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BREAKDOWN OF GOODS EXPORT – FROM DK TO TURKEY
Machines total (1,00 bill. DKK)
18%
Ore- and metal waste (0,97
bill. DKK)
17%
Medical and pharmaceutical
products (0,61 bill. DKK)
54%
11%
Others (incl. Organic
chemicals and clothing) (3,10
bill. DKK)
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FDI RELATED FACTS, FIGURES, OPPORTUNITIES, AND
CHALLENGES
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FDI
• FDI in 2012 was $12.4 billion (9.3 = net capital inflow / 2.6 = real estate)
• +32.000 companies with foreign capital
• Within finance and insurance, production, service, and detail industry
• 78% from Europe over the last 5 years
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STARTING A BUSINESS IN TURKEY
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TOTAL FDI INFLOWS TO TURKEY
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LEGAL SERVICES COMPANIES IN TURKEY
• DLA Piper, Clifford Chance, White& Case, Allen& Overy penetrated
the Turkish market in the recent years.
• Strict bar regulations on foreign law companies for practising law in
Turkey.
• Foreign legal services companies’ market entry strategies.
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Danish Companies in Turkey - Sectorial Distribution
Approx. 37,300 foreign companies in Turkey (2013 data)
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Largest sectors in Turkey
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Building & Construction
Energy
Automotive
Food & Agriculture
IT & Electronics, Machinery
Textile
Agriculture
Tourism
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EXAMPLES OF WELL-KNOWN DANISH COMPANIES IN
TURKEY
Water-supply and
waste
Ambulance services,
healthcare
Logistics and
shipping
Clothing
Healthcare
Construction
Solar technologies
Wind-power
Engineering consultancy
Retail
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MACRO EVALUATION OF CHALLENGES IN TURKEY
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Political
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Economic
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Business
environment
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Divisions between the moderate Islamist government and secular institutions
including the judiciary and military pose serious threats to the policy agenda,
e.g. Gezi Protests.
Turkey is becoming increasingly involved in regional conflicts, such as the Syrian
civil war, straining its diplomatic relations in the region.
Reliance on short-term foreign capital inflows and borrowing from abroad
presents a danger to economic stability.
Monetary policy credibility and independence from government influence has
recently been called into question.
Instability in Syria or domestic (or regional) terrorism could lower investor
confidence and cap much needed fixed investment levels.
High reliance on short-term debt financing increases the economy‘ s vulnerability
to investment flows.
Tax avoidance is widespread.
Procedures for hiring and firing staff are more highly regulated than in developed
European states.
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TURKEY - CULTURAL DIFFERENCES
 Relationship vs. network
 Formal vs. informal
 X Factor-law vs. Law of Jante
 Status vs. quality
 Hierarchical vs. flat structure
 Anarchy counter orderly
 Short vs. long time horizon
 Hofstede's four dimensions (DK / TR):
 Power distance (18 vs. 66)
 Individualism (74 vs. 46)
 Masculinity (16 vs. 45)
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GEZI PROTESTS – POLITICS IN TURKEY
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Gezi events-31 May 2013-?
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Started in Istanbul, Gezi Park, as an environmentalist protest and spread
to whole Turkey as a search for more democracy.
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• Highly criticized in the world/within Turkey because of its
disproportional use of police force and main media channels
ignorance of the events.
The woman in red becomes the symbol of the events.
• Business as usual.
• Not an Arab Spring, but part of a democratization movement in a
democratic country that will lead to further democracy.
Contact:
Royal Danish Consulate General, Istanbul
Consul General - Jesper Kamp
Phone: +90 212 359 19 03
[email protected]
Trump Towers
Büyükdere Cad. No: 1
Kule 2, Kat 14, D. 463
TR-34387 Sisli / Istanbul
Tel: +(90) 212 359 19 00
[email protected]
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THANK YOU FOR LISTENING!
Q&A
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